Tag Archive for: The Shortlist

Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/06/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...but none of those really stand out, aside from two taking each other on at Leicester.. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.30 Leicester
  • 5.20 Southwell
  • 6.45 Wetherby
  • 7.35 Lingfield

...and as luck would have it, The Shortlist race from Leicester is on our 'free' list, so it'd be rude not to look at the 3.30 Leicester after all! It's a 9-runner (poss E/W options?), Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

Thapa VC is the only LTO winner here, but Maxi Boy, Ernie's Valentine, Makeen, Touchwood and Royal Musketeer all recorded top=three finishes. Thapa VC is 2 from 3 and the only one in the field with a win from their last five outings and is denoted as a fast finisher, but he's also our only class riser.

The top five on the card are all down in class by at least one grade with Golden Spice and Above both dropping down two levels and the former runs for the first time since a wind op, whilst the other Shortlist horse, Amber Island wears first-time cheekpieces and these two from the Shortlist are the only females in the race.

All bar two of the field have raced in the past three weeks, but Golden Spice has had a three month break, whilst Maxi Boy hasn't been seen since mid-September 2021 and may well need the run. Above, Makeen, Thapa VC and Royal Musketeer have all won over 7f elsewhere, but our shortlist horses, Golden Spice & Amber Island are both course and distance winners; Ernie's Valentine has also won here, landing a 5f novice event on debut two years ago.

In addition to the above, Instant Expert tells us that all bar Golden Spice and Above have won on good to firm and that we've five previous Class 4 turf winners...

Maxi Boy who might need the run has yet to win at this trip and Above would prefer to be running on the All-Weather. Makeen's Class 4 form probably looks better from a place perspective, but Royal Musketeer just really looks up against it today. Let's check those place stats, because they suggest that the majority of these would be entitled to at least challenge for a place in the frame...

...Royal Musketeer aside, that is! A slight nagging doubt re: Golden Spice on good to firm ground, but there are some pretty solid place stats here for a race that has previously suited those draw lowest...

...which is another tick for 'form horse' Thapa VC. Those races highlighted above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those racing most prominently...

Unfortunately for Thapa VC, his last four runs suggest that he's likely to be waited with...

...and his last two wins have both been from the back over 7f. He is, however, noted as a fast finisher and closed in quickly enough to win on good to fork last time out, so although his pace profile isn't ideal, he could still win. Conversely Golden Spice looks to have the 'best' pace makeup here, but runs from the widest stall, so she's in a similar dilemma to Thapa VC.

The best pace/draw combination here over 7f at Leicester on good to form ground has actually been a low drawn, mid-divisional runner...

so that's not a million miles from where we've got Thapa VC...

...but Amber Island scores well here in a race where the pace/draw hasn't really benefited any of them.

Summary

There's a lack of pace here and this could lead to a falsely run race with runners waiting for others to make a move and if this happens, it will play right into the hands of the fast finishing Thapa VC. He's won two of his last three, he's won each of his last two over 7f and won both from the back, so connections must be satisfied with his turn of pace late on. He's the only one of the field with any recent winning form and I think he's the one for me here.

He's currently priced at 11/2 with both Hills & Bet365, which seems fair to me. As for the placers, I don't really fancy the shortlist horses Golden Spice and Amber Island nor Maxi Boy, but any of the others could mount a realistic challenge to make the frame. If I was to pick any, I'd want a decent price so I could go E/W and that probably brings me to the 9/1 Touchwood. His pace/draw profile doesn't look good, but he's essentially only one stall away from having the ideal combo and he has ran well enough to finish third twice in the last three weeks.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/05/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Vitralite is of the most immediate interest, whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.40 Brighton
  • 6.25 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 7.00 Ballinrobe
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

I suspect Vitralite will be very popular based on those Shortlist scores, but that might make him shorter than he should be and it might also up the door for some reasonably priced E/W bets in the 8.25 Nottingham, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on show here, but Vitralite is 113 in his last three outings. Eleven eleven won four starts ago, but the rest of the field are winless in five or more. Vitralite is, however, up in class here, as are Bobby Dassler, Eleven eleven, Pysanka, Long Call and Back from Dubai. The last of those stepping up in class is also making a debut for a new yard, as is Tipperary Moon.

Pysanka is running in a handicap for the second time and now wears a visor for the first time, as he seeks a first win. Fellow 4 yr old Marayel is the only class dropper after finishing third last time out, but that was 113 days ago and only Pysanka (131 days) has been off the track longer. The other nine have all raced in the last five weeks.

No previous course winners on display, but Vitralite, Under Fox, Eleven Eleven and Back from Dubai have all won at a similar trip, whilst Instant Expert backs this up and then tells us that there's not much winning form at either going nor class!

...and that we might need to consult place form in the hope of some positivity...

That's a little better but not great, fingers crossed that draw & pace can help us more!

Or perhaps not, for although those drawn highest haven't done brilliantly in similar races, there's not a massive draw bias here...

...as for pace, those races above have favoured those setting the pace...

...which based on recent outings might be good news for Bobby Dassler and possibly Back from Dubai...

...but there's not really much pace in the race.

Summary

This hasn't taken long, has it? Sadly, it's a far poorer race than I thought it might be and there's no mileage in wasting too much time on mediocrity.

Vitralite is probably the least poor runner in the race, so would be favourite almost by default, but he's 8lbs higher than his last win two starts ago and 4lbs higher than when beaten last time out at a lower class, so whilst he may well be the winner, I'm not backing him at 7/4. That's too short for me, but you make your own decisions about that.

He's the form horse albeit at Class 6, Instant Expert didn't help us, nor did the draw, but pace pointed towards Bobby Dassler and Back from Dubai. Bobby Dassler is probably the main threat to Vitralite, but as the 5/1 second favourite, he's too short for me to go E/W. As for Back from Dubai, he'd be an unlikely winner, but is surely better than the eighth place finish on his last run for Roy Bowring. If Kevin Frost can get him running anywhere like he was at nearby Southwell over the winter and you've got an active Paddy Power account, then 14/1 E/W with 4 places might not be the worst bet you've ever made, but the smart money is here is the money you leave in your pocket and walk away.

It's more than fine to consider a race and then not have a bet, in fact we positively encourage it here at Geegeez.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would all be worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Punchestown
  • 3.23 Brighton
  • 4.10 Wolverhampton
  • 4.30 Huntingdon
  • 7.50 Hexham
  • 8.20 Hexham

It's not often that we get a horse scoring 15 on TS featuring in one of our 'free' races, but they've aligned here and whilst it's not the best race we'll ever look at, we really should look at Major Gatsby and the 3.23 Brighton,  an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good firm ground...

It's not unusual for a Class 6 field to contain no LTO winners and that's sadly the case here, but Fieldsman was a runner-up just 11 days ago, whilst both Mount Mogan and Amathus both finished third most recently inside the last three weeks. As for 'recent' wins, only joint top weight King of War, Shalfa and Diamond Cottage have scored in their last five outings.

Only River Wharfe, Fieldsman, Diamond Cottage and Sir Sedric raced (and were beaten, of course) at this lowly grade last time out, as the other seven all drop down from Class 5 and for bottom weight Dazzerling, this is is his first run for Phil McEntee, having left Laura Mongan's yard in the last three weeks. He also wears a hood for the first time, whilst Spirit Warning is in first-time blinkers and Sir Sedric will wear cheekpieces for the first time. In fact only Fieldsman runs with no headgear/equipment at all!

Whilst Major Gatsby was our featured runner from The Shortlist, he's not the only former course and distance winner on display here. As it happens, only Mount Mogan, Spirit Warning, Sir Sedric and Dazzerling have yet to win over this track and trip, but all bar Dazzerling have at least scored over 7f elsewhere.

We've a big spread of age/weight here today as the 11yr old Fieldsman takes on four 4 yr olds (top three in the weights and the bottom weight) in a field where King of War and Major Gatsby are rated some 18lbs better than Dazzerling.

Major Gatsby, however, might well need a run after a break of almost 20 weeks as he now tackles a group of horses where most of them have raced in the last four weeks, apart from Sir Sedric and Spirit Warning who return from absences of 101 and 354 days respectively and the latter could certainly be excused for a bit of rustiness.

More stats are available to us when we click the Instant Expert tab, such as seven past good to firm winners and one tackling the going for the first time as well as seven (not the same seven!) Class 6 winners. We also have one Class 2 winner, three at Class 3, three at Class 4 and six Class 5 winners...

...and in a pretty open but fairly mediocre contest, it is indeed Major Gatsby who catches the eye on the win stats, but without any real standout star above, we might need the place stats to help us whittle the field down...

and fragmented by column...

If we hen applied the green = 3pts and amber = 1pt rule from the Shortlist criteria, then we'd have Dazzling and Shalfa on a maximum of 12pts, followed by King of War on 10pts. next best on the list would then be Fieldsman, Major Gatsby and River Wharfe each with 8pts and having featured on all four columns. I think that these are the ones to focus on now. This half dozen are drawn no higher than stall 9 (2, 4, 6, 7, 8 & 9) with most of them in the higher half of the draw over a course and distance  where the draw stats wouldn't necessarily be enough to rule any of them out...

...although stall 6 (Fieldsman) seems an anomaly with such a poor return. The key to winning at Brighton has often been about getting your nose in front and staying there...

...with leaders almost twice as likely as prominent/hold-up types to win. Again, I'd be wary of suggesting mid-division horses can't win, but their record is pretty poor from both a win and place perspective and I'd want my runner to be in the forward half of the field, which is where you're likely to find Shalfa and Fieldsman...

and my shortlisted six from pace/draw combined...

Summary

I narrowed the field down to six and then based initially on pace and then by the pace/draw combination, I think that I'd want Shalfa, Fieldsman and King of War as my three for the frame in a very open-looking race. I could easily have the first three home, but I could also have none in the frame and as such, it's case of keeping stakes very low.

My three are relatively generously priced at 8/1, 5/1 and 16/1 respectively and on that basis, I'd take E/W options about Shalfa at 8's and King of War at 16's and if you've still got an active SkyBet account, they're paying four places.

Good luck!

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/05/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 4.35 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.15 Sandown
  • 7.35 Killarney
  • 7.55 Sligo

...and although it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the 'free' list, we really should marry the free feature with the free cards and take a quick look at Killane in the 4.35 Newcastle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m1f on good ground...

Magic Mike and featured horse Killane both won last time out and aside from Artic Row's success four races ago, none of the others have won any of five starts with both Ebendi and Bebside Banter failing to complete twice in their last four outings.

The afore mentioned Ebendi makes just a second handicap appearance (fell at 2nd hurdle on hcp debut) and the recently out of sorts (pulled up in two of his last three) Bebside Banter is now fitted with first-time cheeekpieces, meaning that only Minella Youngy, Ebendi and Mactavish run without any headgear/apparatus.

Bebside Banter also drops down from Class 4 here, as do Irish Sovereign and Mactavish, but bottom weight Burnage Boy is up from Class 6 some three months after his last run.

Only Mactavish, who returns from six months off, has been away from the track longer than Burnage Boy, with the rest of the field having raced in April (plus a May outing for Bebside Banter).

As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Killane is a former course and distance winner and none of his rivals have won here before, but Artic Row, Ingleby Mackenzie and Magic Mike have all at least won over a similar trip.

Further conditions-related info courtesy of Instant Expert shows that just five of the field have a good ground NH win, but that half a dozen have won at Class 5. You can adjust the parameters yourself, of course to find the sole Class 4 win, but here are today's relevant win stats...

...where Killane aside, it's a pretty bleak picture. The areas I've most concerns about are Minella Youngy (class/distance), Artic Row (distance), Mactavish (time off/going/distance), Edmond Dantes (distance), Ingleby Mackenzie (class/distance), Magic Mike (going), Burnage Boy (class/distance), phew! Hopefully some of these will have better place records...

Hmmm, not much better to be honest. My next port of call is pace and if the field run like they have been running of late...

...then I'd expect Bebside Banter to be the one setting the tempo of the contest early doors with Mactavish and Minella Youngy the back markers. Featured runner Killane has raced prominently in two if his last four and does tend to run in an advanced position generally, which would seem to suit this race, based on past similar contests...

Summary

I wanted to marry up the free feature with the races of the day and that meant looking at Killane's chances here and the only possible negatives I have about him are that he's up 3lbs from his win a month ago and that we might not get a decent price when the book opens.

That said, he's only one pound higher than a win at Carlisle last year and he's back on good ground after winning on heavy last time out. Price-wise, 5/2 would be tolerable, but if I could get 3/1, I'd be much happier!

Others to note would be Magic Mike and Irish Sovereign with the latter hopefully a double digit-odds E/W option.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/05/23

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I hope you all had a great Bank Holiday weekend and that a return to normality on Tuesday isn't too much of a bind. The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Weebill and Finest View would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 7.00 Ludlow
  • 7.30 Ludlow
  • 8.45 Newcastle

The first of the two Ludlow contests is the highest rated of our 'free' races and as it also features Shortlist-highlight Finest View, it makes sense to have a look at the 7.00 Ludlow, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over two miles on good ground, that is softer in places with more rain due...

Lipa K and Kincardine both won last time out, but the latter had failed to complete his two previous outings. Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade and Cabrakan are all two from their last five, but Socialist Agenda is winless in five after back to back wins in early 2022.

Only four of these (Caroles Pass, Finest View, Tap Tap Boom & Bombyx) actually ran at this level last time with the other nine up in class, except Socialist Agenda who drops from Class 2. Of the eight class risers, all except Cabrakan step up just one level, but he's up two classes.

Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade, Bombyx and Casi Crudo are running in handicaps for just second time. Finest View wears a tongue-tie for the first time here and Socialist Agenda has a first outing since a wind operation performed during a three month break from action.

That break isn't the longest here, though. Most of the field have raced in the last nine weeks, but the exception, Galata Bridge was last seen in September 2022, so might well need the run.

All of these have won over a similar trip in the past and Tap Tap Boom has also landed a two mile chase here at Ludlow. The only other course winner is Shortlist horse Finest View, who is two from two over course and distance, including a win in this very race last year. He's 5lbs heavier here, but does have a 7lb claimer in the saddle.

In addition to the above, Instant Expert tells us that Bombyx is the only one of the pack yet to win an NH race on good / good to soft ground and that Finest View is the sole Class 3 winner, although Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade & Cabrakan have won at Class 2...

As expected, Finest View is the eyecatcher here and his place record is even stronger...

...where Tap Tap Boom's record at Class 3 remains poor. Bottom weight Casi Crudo, however, also seems like he'll relish the conditions too. If we said that Finest View and Casi Crudo were of definite interest at this stage, we then need to consider how we think they'll approach the contest and based on their recent outings...

...they both give the impression that they'll be fairly close together in mid-field in a race where Prime Time Lady looks like the one to set the pace, although Finest View did race more prominently last time out just as he did when winning this race last year. Racing further forward again here is likely to improve his chances as those setting the pace have the best record in similar past contests...

Summary

I like Finest View and Casi Crudo from above, but I'm not totally convinced they're quite good enough right now to win. The two I think I like more are Caroles Pass, who has the ideal pace profile and the in-form Kincardine, who won LTO by making all. In fairness, any of this quartet could be the winner and I don't really fancy any of them over any of the others, so with the bookies paying four places, I'd take these four for my placers.

I checked the early market from Hills at 4pm on Monday and they had the race priced up as follows...

...where I'd be happy to place a small E/W bet on three of them, but at 9/2 Kincardine is just too short for such an approach, although it would be fitting this week for him to land this for his owners, our newly crowned King and Queen.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 02/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Citizen Beneral and Broxi would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 3.20 Brighton
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Newcastle

...from which, the 3.20 Brighton is the highest rated. It's a 10-runner, Class 3, fillies handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker/firmer in places and here's how they line up...

Rikona, She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky all won last time out and they are currently 2 from 4, 2 from 3 and 2 from 2 respectively. Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Wisper all won two starts ago, Rich & Pure Gold both won three back and only Arenas Del Tiempo and Orange Martini are without a recent win. In fairness, the latter is only a three-race maiden, but the former has lost eleven on the spin since a win at Epsom in August 2021.

None of these raced at Class 3 last time around as Crystal Estrella, Rich both drop down one class, whilst Three Priests, Wisper, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold, Orange Martini all step up one level, but Rikona, Arenas Del Tiempo & She's Hot are all up two classes here.

Quite a few of these lack handicap experience, as Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Pure Gold have only had prior hcp run, whilst She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky are both on handicap debut today. Two of the field (Wisper and Arenas Del Tiempo) have won here at Brighton before, both scoring over course and distance, whilst Crystal Estrella and Rokina have won elsewhere over this 1m2f trip.

Half of the field have raced inside the last two months, but Crystal Estrella, Wisper, She's Hot, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are coming back from breaks of 185 to 237 days and migfht well need a run. The last thing to note from the card is that the five three year olds (Rich, She's Hot, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold & Orange Martini) all get a whopping 15lbs weights allowance.

Other stats to note are that Maid In Kentucky has never raced on turf before, only Arenas Del Tiempo has raced at Class 3 before (she's 0 from 3), the two course and distance winner sare the only to to have raced here and that Rich, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are trying this trip for the first time...

This lack of Instant Expert data is part of my reluctance to play the Flat early doors, but I can't swerve it forever. We do have limited info here, but you can already suggest that Wisper might go well here, especially if it dries out more, as she's won three times on good firm, whilst Arenas Del Tiempo would also prefer it quicker with a 2 from 3 record on good firm, but a poor win return on good ground, but generally speaking her place records are good...

...so I wouldn't be too hasty to rule her out here. The forecast is for dry windy weather and that might just quicken the turf up for that pair, who both drawn high (8 & 10) here, which in the past has been a good place to run from...

...over a track/trip where hold-up horses have won their fair share of races, but prominent runners have tended to be most successful...

The fact that leaders make the frame most often, but win least often suggests they get picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners and based on this field's most recent efforts...

...that would be better news for Wisper than it would for Arenas Del Tiempo from those wide draws and this dominance of the prominent runner is starkly highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...which points firmly towards Maid In Kentucky and Crystal Estrella in stalls 6 & 7 with that mid-draw prominence, whilst Rokina and Pure Gold might well fill the low drawn hold-up role here, giving them a chance.

Summary

It's hard to get away from Maid In Kentucky, even if she hasn't yet raced on turf. She's in good form, seeking a hat-trick, she's got a reasonable opening mark of 82, she gets that 15lb allowance, has won at this trip and has he ideal pace/draw combination. So she'd be my pick here at a pretty fair 7/2 with Hills.

Elsewhere, she might well pull Crystal Estrella along with her and if she's not too rusty after seven months off, could well make the frame at 12's (Bet365) and another I liked as an E/W possible was Rikona, who is 3 from 7 and a previous distance winner and is also attractively priced at 12/1, although Three Priests might well beat one or both of them with a late run.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/04/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Mister X would be of immediate interest. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.05 Tipperary
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 3.50 Tipperary
  • 4.25 Tipperary
  • 6.00 Southwell

They say it's a long way to Tipperary and I've no desire to go racing there, a decision allied to my steadfast unwillingness to consider Flat racing in April leads me/us to either the last of the 'free' races or to look at Mister X and as the latter runs in what looks a marginally better race on paper, we're off to the 2.00 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo, A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Albert Cee, Topo Chico and The Toff were all runners-up, whilst Mister X's win two starts ago here over course and distance is the only recent win from any of these runners. In fact his rivals are a combined career 0 from 34!

Ferensby and Trilby head the weights and both drop in class for their handicap debuts, whilst Aurora Dawn also tackles handicap company for the first time. Albert Cee and Topo Chico both step up in class, despite never having won a race at any class. As Mister X is the sole winner in the field, it's obvious that he'd be the only one to have won at either track or trip and he did win over course and distance two starts ago.

Aurora Dawn has been off the track for almost twelve weeks, but the remainder have all been out since the start of March with three of them running this month already.

Instant Expert won't show many wins, of course, but it might show who has tackled similar conditions and failed...

Mister X should relish the conditions off just 1lb higher than his last win, whilst red flags are raised for Topo Chico for going/class/distance and The Toff for class/distance, but maybe the place stats will show them in a better light...

...and thankfully for all bar Aurora Dawn, that does appear to be the case. Mister X does still look well set, but Topo Chico has better percentage figures for going/class/distance with the obvious caveat that he's still a maiden after nine races.

Mister X's apparent supremacy is tempered, however, by the fact that stall1 has been the worst performing stall over 7f on the A/W here at Lingfield in 7-runner races...

...and that data isn't great news for Topo Chico out in box seven either, so much will depend on the pace/tactics of the race. Those races above have tended to be dominated by those willing to race from the front...

...with hold-up horses faring worst of all and if we look at how this field has approached recent (largely unsuccessful) outings...

...suggesting that not only is Topo Chico badly drawn, he might also need to pass six runners to win this. Mister X looks like he'll be up with the pace and his course/distance experience might well come into play here.

Summary

It looks a very open race between seven pretty average horses and with his profile, I'm really surprised that Mister X is the 14/1 outsider of the field with Bet365 at 5.40pm.

None of his rivals have convinced me enough to back them, so I'd be looking at a small E/W play on The Shortlist horse Mister X at 14's.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/04/23

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Hi guys, hope you all had a great Easter. I certainly did and I'm ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.15 Exeter
  • 2.45 Exeter
  • 4.00 Pontefract
  • 6.45 Dundalk

Of all the 'free' races and those containing runners from The Shortlist, the 3.45 Exeter interests me most on what is frankly a pretty poor day of racing. Miss Fairfax and Raddon Top go in this one and it's a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Ballydisco and Gerico Ville both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three.Miss Fairfax, Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Biowavego are all two from four and Come On Gruff is two from five, whilst Skandiburg and Ballymagroarty Boy are winless in 15 & 20 races respectively.

Most of these raced at this grade last time out, but the top two in the weights, Skandiburg & Miss Fairfax both drop a class here, as does So Said I. Hauraki Gulf is on handicap debut and it's only the second handicap outing for both Miss Fairfax and Ioupy Collonges.

Only three of this field (Miss Fairfax, So Said I & Raddon Top) have won at Exeter before and all have won over course and distance, whilst Skandiburg, Ballymagroarty Boy, Gerico Ville, Ballydisco and Biowavego have all won at this kind of trip elsewhere.

Most of the field have been out for a run inside the last five weeks or so, but both Come On Gruff and Biowavego were last seen in November of last year and might well need the run.

We have two mares in the race (Miss Fairfax & So Said I), seven previous good to soft winners and all bar Hauraki Gulf have won at Class 4, according to Instant Expert...

...where Ballymagroarty Boy definitely looks the weak link with a line of red. Skandiburg hasn't gone well on good to soft and prefers a shorter trip, whilst Hauraki Gulf's sole win was at Class 5. Shortlisted horse Raddon Top will relish most of the conditions, but would really want a downpour to come, as his best form is on soft or heavy ground.

Miss Fairfax has some good numbers, though, as do Ioupy Collonges, Gerico Ville and Snipe off admittedly small sample sizes.

This type of race has previously tended to suit those wanting to set the pace...

...which, based on recent outings is a definite positive for the likes of Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Gerico Ville...

Summary

Fairly brief today, because I don't feel the need to dig too deep with a pair of outstanding candidates like Ioupy Collonges and Gerico Ville and I'd be rally surprised if they weren't the first two home. Both are in great form, both scored well on Instant Expert and both will be right up with the pace. Ioupy is the 3/1 fave with Gerico offering more value at 6's and I don't think they're that far apart personally and I'd probably side with Gerico Ville today.

He's proven at this trip and beyond and is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win, whilst Ioupy Collinges was beaten by over five lengths off this mark last time out and is asked for an extra 3½f here. He will win handicap races for sure, but I'm not convinced this one will be his first.

As for an E/W bet, So Said I might fit the bill at 16/1 with most bookies paying four places. She clearly needed the run at Chepstow last month after more than a year off but prior to her break, she had three wins and a place from her previous five outings, including a course and distance win here. She stays three miles, likes some cut in the ground and if up with the pace as expected could well hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/04/23

/in /by

Apologies for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, but I was down at Wembley watching my beloved Bolton Wanderers win the much-coveted Papa Johns Football League Trophy and there'll be no column on Good Friday for Easter Saturday either, as I'm at a wedding all day, but now to what I am able to provide...

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Sadly, we have no qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.15 Thirsk
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.15 Thirsk

Now, I tend not to get involved too much with Flat racing in April, so it's a bit of a Hobson's Choice today, as I'll be looking at the 2.30 Fontwell, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m2f on heavy ground, that is soft in places. Dry weather is forecast, so the ground might ease...

BALLINGERS CORNER finished 133 in his three hurdles runs in the 20/21 season, but didn't run for over 22 months before making a chase (and handicap) debut at Ludlow a month ago. She didn't jump too well and went right, made a fair few errors and eventually was last home of seven beaten by 35 lengths.

BLACKO won a couple of Class 4 juvenile hurdles in his first two starts (Dec/Jan 19/20), but struggled raised in class thereafter. Switched to chasing in February this year, he landed a 3-runner Class 3 beginners' contest by 4 lengths at Leicester, but was last home of four at Leicester last time out.

HECTOR JAGUEN failed to make the frame in four over hurdles, but did finish third in his first two over fences in Jan/Feb of this year. It wasn't third time lucky though, as he unseated his rider at Plumpton three weeks ago and he now steps up in class.

SHAW'S CROSS also steps up in class here, but he does have the benefit of a win over a similar trip, when scoring over Plumpton's 2m1½f in January this year. has finished fourth in both runs since without looking like winning and a 35 length defeat a fortnight ago was disappointing. The step up in class can't help, surely?

BEN BRODY won three races and made the frame twice in a purple patch of form (3151P12) from mid-December 2020 to Boxing Day 2021. but has pretty much flopped since, with seven unplaced efforts reducing his mark down from 105 to today's 81. He runs from 1lb out of the handicap, but is rated some 18lbs lower than his last chase success.

In addition to the above details, both Blacko and Ben Brody are former soft/heavy ground winners, whilst Blacko is 2 from 3 in this grade. Ballingers Corner has also won at Class 4. We already know that Ben Brody is way below his last winning mark, but Blacko is now also 2lbs lower than when winning two starts ago!

Historically, the key to winning a race like this here at Fontwell has been to get out sharpish and control the tempo of the race from the front. Those that haven't been able to lead have been advised to stay as close to the leader(s) as possible if they want to make the frame and here's the breakdown...

...stats that, when you look at how this field have raced recently, would suggest Blacko and Ballingers Corner might well be the ones setting the fractions...

Summary

Small field with little to write about today, but Blacko ticks more boxes for me than the others. He won two starts ago and now runs off a lower mark, he's proved in this grade and won't be too concerned about the soft underfoot conditions. He's likely to be the front runner, which is ideal for Fontwell and at 6/1 (Bet365 @ 4.25pm), he looks quite long in a 5-horse race. You could take a quarter odds E/W, if you wanted, but that's not for me.

Hector Jaguen is the current 15/8 favourite, but he'd need to improve dramatically to win here in my opinion and whilst he might well put a decent effort in, the likes of the 7/2 Shaw's Cross at the bottom of the weights might just surprise him.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/03/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a couple of 'possibles' to consider in the Black Country. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.15 Hexham
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

...and although it's not a great race, it does make sense to consider the chances of a  horse, On The Right Track, in a 'free race' ie the 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

None of these come here in any great form, although Belle of Annandale & Haven Lady were both runners-up on their last outings, whilst the latter along with Hashtagmetoo are the only pair to have won any of their last five and they seem to be the most consistent of this bunch.

All bar Iron Heart (down two classes) and This One's For Fred (down one) were in Class 6 action last time around and seven of the field have raced ion the last four weeks. The exceptions to this are Belle of Annandale & The Shortlist horse On The Right Track who now return from breaks of 173 and 239 days respectively and may well need the run.

Kentucky Kingdom, This One's For Fred and Tio Mio are former course winners (at 1m1½f, 1m6f & 1m1½f), whilst Haven Lady and Iron Heart have previous wins over a mile and a half. Belle of Annandale has won at neither track nor trip, but Hashtagmetoo, Starfighter and On The Right Track are all course and distance winners.

Instant Expert also tells us that all bar Belle of Annandale have won on standard A/W and that all bar Belle of Annandale and Iron Heart have won a Class 6 A/W contest...

On the immediate face of it, The Shortlist horse On The Right Track is the eyecatcher, but that optimism has to be tempered by the fact that he hasn't won a race for almost 18 months, although he's now weighted to go well. Obvious concerns surface about Haven Lady, Starfighter, This One's For Fred & Tio Mio on the going, This One's For Fred on Class and both Hashtagmetoo & Starfighter on the trip, but as there's a lack of green above, let's look at place form...

...where again On The Right Track looks best placed but with the same caveats as before. This One's For Fred looks the weakest here and I think we'd probably be best focusing on those with any green on Going, Class, Course and/or Distance, so that's not good for Belle of Annandale (again), Haven lady or Iron Heart.

Other than not getting hampered or cut-up on the bends, there shouldn't really be a massive draw bias in a 9-runner contest over a mile and a half, but let's check the actual stats...

...and they do seem to back up my theory, that aside from a slight disadvantage in the lower quarter of the draw, there shouldn't be too much in it and it's a similar story with pace. Hold-up horses have struggled to make up ground here, but thise racing any further forward all seem to have a decent enough chance of getting involved...

...which based on recent outings...

...wouldn't bode well for the likes of Kentucky Kingdom, Tio Mio or Iron heart and if we use a three-race sample size and arrange the field in draw order using those draw/pace stats abo, we can generate this heatmap...

Summary

It's Hashtagmetoo here for me. He's running consistently well, scores well on Instant Expert for places, is well drawn and has a good pace profile. He won over course and distance earlier this month and looks the most likely to me.

No prices out as of 3.10pm Monday, so I'll check back in later and update and also add an E/W option, if there's a viable price.

Update, Hashtagmetoo opened up at 15/2 with Skybet & Hills not long after 5pm, so he's the E/W pick for me.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/03/23

/in /by

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Wetherby
  • 3.50 Market Rasen
  • 4.25 Market Rasen
  • 4.50 Clonmel

Small fields everywhere in the UK and not much of note to discuss, but I'm going take a quick look at the 4.25 Market Rasen, as it seems the 'best' of the free races to look at. It's a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on soft ground and these are the five runners set to go to post...

MADE FOR YOU has finished 51122 in five starts here and was a winner at Musselburgh three races ago, scoring by 8 lengths in early December. Hasn't been anywhere near that level in two runs since (PU and 5th of 6) and will need to improve to be involved here, you'd think.

THE KNIPHAND looked a better horse when stepped up to 3m+ last December, winning back to back handicaps at Doncaster seven weeks apart. Things didn't go to plan last time out at Chepstow, but he was up two classes and should stand a better chance here now back down in grade.

BOLD SOLDIER makes a handicap debut here after being the runner-up in three of four efforts over hurdles so far and was beaten by less than two lengths over 3m on soft/heavy ground at Uttoxeter last time out. He was headed with half a furlong to go and the slightly shorter trip and slightly better ground here could help him land a first win in a first time tongue tie, as might the booking of a 7lb claimer who has finished 1271 in his last four.

STORM DENNIS won back to back 2m5f contests in Jan/Feb of last year before a seven month break. He was then last of five, beaten by twenty lengths on chase debut before reverting to hurdles on Boxing Day in a 10 length defeat when 6th of 15 over 2m5f at Kempton. Unproven at the trip and might need the run, but off a workable mark, the same as his last win.

RIPPER ROO had a good 20/21 season, finishing as a runner-up on his sole bumper outing before a run of form reading 2331 over hurdles, culminating in a win here over 2m5f. Then off track for the thick end of 20 months, he hasn't looked the same in three efforts over fences, beaten by 31 and 43 lengths before being puled up last time out. Might do better back over hurdles, but hard to be confident about his chances.

Not much soft ground form to write home about, but The Kniphand and Made For You both have multiple wins at this level and Made For You really likes it here at Market Rasen, but has struggled with the trip, unlike The Kniphand, but he's now 6lbs higher than his last win, whilst from a place perspective, it's Storm Dennis who looks the weakest...

With these small fields on tricky ground, you often get a falsely run race, but if this field run how they have in their most recent outings, then I'd expect the first part of the race to see them in this kind of order...

...although Storm Dennis might well be the one to lead out and I'm unsure about Ripper Roo. Made For You looks like one who'll be waited with, though. The pace might not actually be as important here as it is on other days, as it looks like this kind of race can be won from anywhere...

...the mid-div numbers are obviously skewed in a such a small sample size, but my take here is that if pace is no real advantage, then the horse best suited to conditions 'should' be the one to back.

Summary

The pair I think I'd want to be with in a race like this are the two I highlighted from Instant Expert, Made For You and The Kniphand. Neither tick all the boxes, as explained earlier, but there's a big discrepancy in price. Made For You has the ability to win this race, but is out of form, so the cheekpieces are going back and at 9/1, he's the outsider of the five, but might be worth a small (and I mean small) E/W bet here.

Otherwise, I have no play in the game.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/03/23

/in /by

Tuesday is the day many of you have been waiting almost a year for, as it heralds the opening of this year's Cheltenham Festival, which my colleagues have covered at length elsewhere on the site.

For the purpose of my humble daily column, The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's heavily Cheltenham-weighted Shortlist...

...although Tom Creen and Trac look worth a second glance at Sedgefield, as does Devil's Angel at Newcastle.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 3.50 Sedgefield
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

...and although I don't generally cover Festival races with them already being 'done' by my colleagues, it would seem remiss of me not to consider the chances of four runners from TS in the first of our free races, the 2.10 Cheltenham, which is a 9-runner, Grade 1, 5yo+ novice chase (13 fences) over a left handed two miles on soft ground...

The general feeling here is that this will be a 2-horse contest between El Fabiolo and Jonbon and I'd be surprised if that wasn't the case. I expect the bookies to have them both around the 6/4 mark, which means that we're not getting rich from singles or forecasts, but it does open up the possibility of an E/W bet.

I'm going to set the two prinicpals to one side for now and focus upon the other seven to see who might be worth looking at to make up the places for that E/W bet or for your tricast/trifecta selections, starting with their last runs which saw Ballybreeze and Effernock Fizz come home as winners, whilst Ha D'Or was a 2-length runner-up at Grade 3. And although Ballybreeze did win on chase debut last time out, it was 20 weeks ago and in a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 100, so not only might he need the run, he's up three classes and Straw Fan Jack / Effernock Fizz are both up two.

Most of these have raced in the last five weeks or so, but Hollow Games has been off for 11 weeks and Straw Fan Jack for over 15 weeks, so like Ballybreeze, they might not be quite 'race-fit'. Every single runner in this field ahs won over a similar trip tot his one, yet only two of the seven past Cheltenham runners have actually won here; Saint Roi won a Grade 3 2m1f hurdle here at 2020's Festival, Straw Fan Jack won a Class 2 Novice chase over course and distance as recently as October and neither El Fabiolo nor Ha D'Or have visited HQ before.

We've also got the 'complication' of softer than usual ground for the start of the Festival and Instant Expert shows us who has done well/badly on soft ground as well as other useful stats...

Red marks against Ballybreeze, Ha D'Or and Effernock Fizz on soft ground and that latter pair have hardly excelled in Class 1 company, whilst Ha D'Or's record at the trip is also poor.

Pace always plays a big part here at Cheltenham and many runners either go off too quickly and get swallowed up later on or they hang too far off the pace and struggle to make up ground on that long energy-sapping incline before the finish. This is shown to some degree in the follow short distance chase stats from previous meetings...

...where hold-up horses have really taken the brunt of it. Ideally for an E/W runners we want an average pace score of around 2.00 to 3.00 and here's our field's last four runs...

And at this point, I'd have concerns about Dysart Dynamo and Ha D'Or on pace. Pace is also against Ballybreeze, as is the rise in class and his layoff since his last run, whilst Effernock Fizz also faces a rise in class and a poor pace profile. Straw Fan Jack also comes off a lay-off and is up in class, whilst Hollow Games may also need a run, meaning that only Saint Roi has avoided any negatives in the process so far.

He did unseat his rider last time out, but in his penultimate start he did land a Grade 1 contest. That was Hollow Games' last appearance and he was 22 lengths further back. All things considered, I'm having Saint Roi as 'best of the rest'

Summary

We fairly quickly got to Saint Roi being our outlier and at 9/1 with bet365, looks a useful third choice in the race. As for our two at the top of the market, there won't be much in it, but El Fabiolo is rated 3lbs better than Jonbon who in turn scored better on Instant Expert. As for pace, El Fabiolo edges here, as Jonbon might get sucked into an early battle and when the two met at Aintree last year Jonbon only prevailed by a neck, despite El Fabiolo being hampered and then making a mistake.

There won't be much in it, wouldn't a dead heat be exciting? But if push comes to shove, I'm going El Fabiolo / Jonbon / Saint Roi.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/03/23

/in /by

Hi guys, I'm back from Istanbul and ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.15 Newcastle
  • 3.25 Lingfield
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 4.35 Lingfield

And as one of the top five on The Shortlist is also running in one of our 'free' races, we should see how top-weight Burrows Diamond might get on in the 3.15 Newcastle, a competitive-looking, five-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7½f on good to soft ground that is good in places. The forecast is sunny and dry, so the track might quicken slightly for these...

None of these won LTO, but Glittering Love was a runner-up, beaten by just a head, whilst only featured horse Burrows Diamond and Donna's Double have won any of their last five outings. Glittering Love now steps up in class, however, but Burrows Diamond and The Ferry Master both drop down a level.

The latter now wears a visor for the first time and is the only course and distance winner in the field. Burrows Diamond has won here over 2m4½f and proved her stamina with a 3m½f win at Wetherby, whilst Frenchy du Large has won at neither track nor trip.

Donna's Double has never won beyond 2m4½f (Ayr) but had bumper and hurdles wins here over 2m½f and Glittering Love has won over 3m½f on a couple of occasions, but is yet to win here at Newcastle, as seen below...

Burrows Diamond, as expected, looks the standout on Instant Expert, albeit at 7lbs higher than her last win. Frenchy du Large looks relatively consistent if unspectacular. Donna's Double has little handicap experience, but does have a couple of non-hcp course wins to his name. The Ferry Master ticks a few boxes and has won over course and distance, but is probably better suited to Class 4 racing, whilst Glittering Love's place form is very interesting for a horse that really doesn't win often enough.

BURROWS DIAMOND produced two really good efforts in December at this grade to win at Wetherby (3m½f, soft) and then be a runner-up at Doncaster (3m, good) four weeks later. Not at her best at Uttoxeter next/last time out, but she was up in class that day. Back at Class 3 here and eased a pound, this should be more to her liking.

FRENCHY DU LARGE won a pair of 2m4f chases either side of Christmas 2021, but has raced just four times in the last year, falling twice and then going down by 22 lengths, before finishing third of five last time out and has yet to win in four starts beyond 2m5½f.

DONNA'S DOUBLE won on bumper debut, won on novice hurdle debut and won on handicap chase debut. The latter was in early January and he was raised 4lbs for that win, but could only manage 6th of 8 next/last time out. He has obvious potential but I'd say he'd want a shorter race on softer ground, but remains unexposed.

THE FERRY MASTER is the sole C&D winner, but that was back in November 2020 and he's 0 from 11 since; a run of form that has seen his mark slip from 134 to today's 117 and that speaks volumes. He should be able to win off this mark, but haiving been well beaten in his last five, it'd be a surprise if he did well.

GLITTERING LOVE has a decent record over fences, with 5 wins and 5 further places from 16 efforts and was only beaten by a head at Kelso last time out. He's up in class and weight here and isn't getting any younger at the age of 11, but he could go well here with the drop in trip possibly helping.

Based on their recent outings, I'd expect Frenchy du Large to be setting the pace with feature horse Burrows Diamond happy to sit back and let things unfold for a while...

...but past similar contests have favoured those likeliest to 'get on with things'...

Summary

For me, other than a pace disparity, feature horse Burrows Diamond ticks all the boxes and I think she's the one to beat. With such a small field, there's a real chance of  the race being falsely run, which play into the hands of those who tend to finish well and on that basis, plus the other positives about her, I'd suggest that 10/3 about Burrows Diamond might be a decent price.

As for the others, pace-setter Frenchy du Large might well hold on and looks big at 7/1, so he could be E/W material, but it's equally likely that if Burrows Diamond pulls through the pack later on. that he drags perennial placer Glittering Love along with her for the runner-up spot.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/02/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the 2.15 Catterick race might worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Catterick
  • 3.45 Catterick
  • 7.00 Southwell

As it happens, that 2.15 race only has three runners, so I'll leave that alone to focus upon the 7.00 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

Top weight Alexander James is winless in eight starts but drops two classes to run here and has already scored over course and distance, albeit on his debut almost four years ago on the old polytrack surface. Yard also runs Plastic Paddy here.

Tropez Power won over C&D three starts ago and has made the frame in each of his last two, catching the eye as a fast finisher just failing by three quarters of a length LTO.

Plastic Paddy is the only LTO winner on the field and is raised 4lbs for that win over this trip on Newcastle's Tapeta. He's a five time winner over this trip and should go well again.

Chief's Will has also won over C&D, getting home by a head two starts ago. He was raised 2lbs for that run, but still came within three quarters of a length of catching Plastic Paddy LTO. Has unfortunately been raised 2lbs in defeat, which makes life tougher here.

Soames Forsyte was a runner-up at Southwell LTO, when a head behind Chief's Will here over C&D and he's now 2lbs better off with the winner as he makes a yard debut for his third handler inside a year. He's up in class today and wears a hood for the first time, as he hopes to finally get off the mark at the seventh time of asking.

Candy Warhol makes a handicap debut here just four days after finishing fourth of eight at Wolverhampton, having weakened late on after being headed after 7f. He makes a course debut here and isn't leniently treated off 74.

Mykonos St John is Candy Warhol's stablemate and he also ran just four days ago when last home of nine in a sixteenth successive defeat since winning here over 7f just over a year ago. He's now 4lbs lower than that win, but recent form is appalling (14/15, 7/9, 6/7, 14/14, 9/9) and provides no inspiration.

Bottom weight Local Bay, however, has been going really well, winning here at Southwell in back to back Class 6, 7f handicaps earlier this month, before stepping up a class to run 2nd of 11 (beaten by a head) at Wolverhampton four days ago. He's up in class again, but has been eased a pound by the assessor and whilst this is the toughest race to date, he really is in good nick and has won over this trip on Newcastle's tapeta.

So, we've five course winners and six distance winners, but Instant Expert can tell us more about going, class and weight...

Tropez Power is the clear eye-catcher here with a full line of green with Local Bay looking decent too and I've no real issues with any of them on the going, the two reds are from just two outings each. The field doesn't initially looked to have done too well at Class 4 on the A/W, but Tropez Power is 2 from 5, which is good and aside from Plastic Paddy, who I'll come to shortly, the other six runners have only had ten Class 4 runs, so it's probably too early to say they're all not good enough!

As for Plastic Paddy, yes he's only 1 from 9 at this grade, but his win was last time out and he has made the frame in three of the nine. He also has the worst record here at Southwell but that just strikes me as quirky with him having three wins three further places from eleven tapeta runs including his 0/4 here. It's surely only a matter of time before the penny drops. Trip-wise, Chief's Will is the odd one out with just one win from seven, but that win was here over C&D two starts ago and he was only narrowly defeated LTO.

The tapeta surface here at Southwell is still relatively new, so we don't have hundreds of races worth of data to fall back upon, but what 2022 and 2023 have shown us in terms of draw and pace is...

...that although it's looks like a high draw is most advantageous, you'd probably want to be in the 3 to 7 middle section, but the bias isn't massive at all. You can understand stalls 1 and 2 being slightly worse off with a tight left hand bend, but the emphasis here is on pace/race tactics...

...where it pays to get out quickly and stay out. Leaders win almost as often as mid-division runners and hold-up horses combined, whilst prominent runners make the frame most often. It might be a simple inference, but perhaps it's a case of leaders winning and those chasing staying close to them and filling the places? As for the pace/draw combinations, mid-drawn leaders who can almost cut across the bend fare considerably better than the others...

We can then refer back to our race draw and the fields most recent outings via our pace tab...

As the pace of the race seems to carry more weight than the draw, I'm going to make this a five-horse race, omitting Tropez Power, Soames Forsyte and Mykonos St John. I do like Tropez Power , as he is a decent sort and will win races, but he's up in weight after a defeat and is likely to be one of the back makers, so I've reluctantly ruled him out. Of the remaining five, Alexander James is winless in sixteen and Candy Warhol looks up against it off an opening mark of 74 after four modest outings.

Summary

The three I like best of the field here are Plastic Paddy, Chief's Will and Local Bay. The first two on that list were only separated by 0.75 lengths recently and with Chief's Will better off at the weights now, slightly better drawn and more likely to lead, there's every chance of him reversing those placings. Local Bay is in great form too and should get a good tow into the race from Chief's Will on his immediate inside and we good have a cracking, tight contest.

Any of the three could well win and if pushed, I'd possibly side with Local Bay at 4/1. Plastic Paddy is 7/2 but Chief's Will might have been underestimated by a 6/1 ticket. Sadly that's not long enough for me as an E/W bet and I can't seem to shake off the thought of Tropez Power defying the pace/draw to get up late on.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/02/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how TS looks this  for this Tuesday...

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Market Rasen
  • 4.15 Market Rasen
  • 6.00 Southwell

The first four races on TS are of obvious interest and from those and the trio of 'free' races, I've decided to focus on the 2.15 Market Rasen, which on paper is the highest rated of the seven, despite only being an 8-runner, Class 4, handicap hurdle for 4yo+ mares over a right-handed 2m4½f on good ground, that is softer in places...

My initial thoughts were that this would be pretty competitive with any of five in with a decent shout, but that I wasn't over keen on the top two in the weights (Bon Retour & Could Be trouble) or bottom weight Ravenscar, but I'm not ruling anything out so soon!

Notnowlinda and Windtothelightningboth won last time out, but all bar Could Be Trouble have won at least one of their last three (CBT won seven starts ago). Top weight Bon Retour is the only class mover dropping down a level after a 17 length defeat earlier in the month.

Four of the field (Presenting A Queen, Notnowlinda, Let's Go To Vegas & Windtothelightning) make a handicap debut here in a contest where only Presenting A Queen, Notnowlinda and Ravenscar have yet to win over a similar trip. Our sole course winner, Let's Go To Vegas scored over 2m5½f on debut in November prior to a runner-up finish next/last time out and all of this field have been seen in the last eight weeks.

Instant Expert shows us the field's performances under similar conditions and it loos promising, albeit off fairly small sample sizes in some cases (two of these have only five races under their belts and two are making just their third starts)...

And those two graphics would lend more confidence to my initial feeling about this being a five-horse race. Of these five, past efforts suggest that Presenting A Queen is the likely pace-maker with Phillapa Sue the hold-up type...

...although Notnowlinda might want to get involved early too. The Pace Analysis of past similar contests suggests that Phillapa Sue is likely to struggle from the back of the field...

...and if we eliminate her from our calculations, we're left with just four of our original eight runners.

Summary

Having halved the field, let's take a quick look at each of the remaining quartet, who are all on handicap debut...

PRESENTING A QUEEN was a winner in each of her first three starts (2 x NHF and a 2m4f hurdle), but has been beaten by 16 and 10 lengths in two efforts since, albeit at 2m7½f and 2m5f. She's down in trip here, which might help, but she carries most weight of the four.

NOTNOWLINDA actually won a three mile Irish PTP before tackling a pair of bumpers, where she was third twice last winter. Since then she has won two of three over hurdles, but both wins were over 2m and her attempt at 2m4f saw her beaten by 24 lengths, but that was at Class 2.

LETS GO TO VEGAS raced in two Irish PTP races last March, falling on debut but finishing second three weeks later prior to an eight month break and a win on her hurdling debut here over course and distance. She ran to a similar standard next/last time out, but was a runner-up at Huntingdon behind an impressive 8/15 favourite from the Skelton yard.

WINDTOTHELIGHTNING also comers here after a PTP runner-up finish and two hurdles runs where she has finished 3rd of 7, beaten by little more than 2 lengths on debut and then an impressive 12 length success at Sedgefield over 2m4f three weeks ago where she stayed on well to go clear late on despite a couple of mistakes. A similar effort and a clear round here puts her in the driving seat.

That's my four in racecard order and I think I've got keener about each one the further down the list I've gone and I've got Windtothelightning edging out Let's Go To Vegas with Notnowlinda battling with Presenting A Queen for the bronze medal. In racecard order, this quartet are best-priced at 6/1, 7/1, 7/2 & 5/2 and I'm not really surprised that Windtothelightning is favourite here. If she stays out of trouble and jumps cleanly she should win. Elsewhere, if either of the two 'outsiders' get much bigger than 7's then they might make for a nice E/W option.