Tag Archive for: TJC report

Racing Insights, Saturday 29/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.30 Gowran Park
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 3.02 Gowran Park
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 7.15 Salisbury
  • 8.30 Windsor

I do like to try and 'marry up' our free feature with the daily race list, but the 3.00 Ascot featuring Star of Orion from the TJC Report is a 26-runner affair and I just don't get involved in such races, so I'm turning my attentions to the 4.10 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to soft ground...

Of the ten, only Coco Bear comes here after win and he has actually won his last three, but hasn't been seen for eleven weeks, whilst all his rivals have raced in the past four weeks. Bernardo O'Reilly was in action on Thursday of this week, whilst Chairmanoftheboard ran as recently as last Friday, when a runner-up at a higher grade, making him the only runner, other than Coco Bear, to be placed last time around.

Chairmanoftheboard isn't the only one dropping in from Class 2, though, as the other two runners, Silver Samurai and Hierarchy, from the top three in the weights both make the same step down. Three (Tiger Crusade, Spring Bloom & bottom weight Sir Oliver) ran at this level last time out, but Bernardo O'Reilly, Justcallmepete, Priscilla's Wish and the returning Coco Bear all step up from Class 4.

Spring Bloom is the only one yet to win at this trip, but only Chairmanoftheboard has won here at Newmarket, courtesy of a course and distance success just over three years ago and he has ditched his usual cheekpieces here but wears a visor for only the second time and the first since May 2019 some 31 races ago!

Instant Expert suggests that good to soft ground might not be the ideal metier for him from a win perspective, but he wouldn't want it any quicker than this and the same report shows how poor Spring Bloom's record is at this trip...

Spring Bloom has had thirteen attempts at winning over 6f on turf, which isn't very good at all, but he does have a 64% place strike rate on the Flat over his career and this is reflected in the place stats below...

Chairmanoftheboard's record at Class 3 is a little surprising, as he has made the frame in 8 of 17 runs at Class 2, so he's certainly not out of his depth here and aside from Bernardo O'Reilly not seeming to run well here, there aren't too many grounds for concern about those place records above.

Somewhat surprisingly, there does seem to be a bit of a bias towards those drawn lowest in previous similar contests...

...but over a straight 6f on what should be one of the best tracks in the country, I still think that any advantage wouldn't be that pronounced and that we should read more into how those races above have been won and our pace analyser says that half of those who lead go on to make the frame and that 1 in 5 leaders win with the general advice being to race as far forward as you can...

...which based on recent outings would tend to put the likes of Silver Samurai and Bernardo O'Reilly at a disadvantage...

...but Justcallmepete could relish the opportunity of a potential soft lead from a relatively low draw.

Summary

For me, Chairmanoftheboard and Coco Bear are the best two horses in the race with me preferring the former. He ran well last time out and now drops in class, whilst the latter is up in class and hasn't raced for eleven weeks, although he did win his last three races, all on soft ground. He actually won three starts ago after a six-month lay-off, so this recent break might not make any difference, but up in class mon a career-high mark might just stop Coco Bear from beating Chairmanoftheboard.

As for a placer or E/W bet, Spring Bloom caught the eye on Instant Expert but he does blow hot and cold, whilst front-runner Justcallmepete might prove hard to catch in a race with no other real pace.

No odds on this one at 3.30pm Friday, so I'll have to revisit this later.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 22/07/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Curragh
  • 2.00 Curragh
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 3.35 Newbury
  • 4.35 Cartmel
  • 7.15 Doncaster

If I'm totally honest, I don't really fancy of Saturday's racing at all, including the ten races above, but the show must go on! To that end, I'm going to head to Town Moor and have a quick look at a very open looking 7.45 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to soft ground. The track is soft in places and more rain is expected, but here's the line-up...

Game Set won last time out and the sole three year old in the field has on both his previous runs to date and gets a useful 7lbs weight allowance on his handicap debut, but he is up two classes here.

Sir Thomas Gresham, Hickory, Brazen Bolt, Mudamer and Maywake were all runners-up LTO and most of the field have been in decent form of late.

The top two on the card, Gweedore and Atrium both take a drop in class, but Brazen Bolt, Danzan, Mudamer, Maywake and Tribal Wisdom are all up one grade.

Only Sir Thomas Gresham, Mudamer and bottom weight Tribal Wisdom have yet to win over this trip and Game Set is a course and distance winner. Atrium and Woven have also won here at Doncaster before, over a mile and 6f respectively.

Sir Thomas Gresham returns from a nine week break, but the remainder have all raced in the past month with top weight Gweedore having a run last Friday in a good race at York and Instant Expert suggests that he'll relish the underfoot conditions expected here...

The field is short on Class 3 wins with Gweedore, Woven and Danzan sharing a rather mediocre 4 from 33 record. Danzan does look rather out of his depth here across the board and Maywake has a poor record at the trip.

To be fair, there isn't much green on that chart generally, so let's check the place stats...

...which look a lot better and also show why I think this is a fairly open-looking contest. Unsurprisingly, when broken down into sectors/thirds, there appears to be little if any draw bias...

...but the PRB3 stats do imply that those drawn lowest have fared better than average...

Pace, however, is another matter, as there's a definite pattern formed...

...whereby those setting the early pace have invariably been swallowed up by the pack. Leaders make the frame most often, but have a terrible record of turning places in to wins at just 12.5%, whilst those not setting the pace have 36 wins from just 97 placed finishes at a 37.1% conversion rate. All of which doesn't look like good news for Gweedore, Danzan and Maywake...

Summary (as of 4pm)

Not an easy race to call and the soft option would be for me to say "back Game Set" and the reasoning would be obvious, he's in form, gets a weight allowance, will race prominently and has won over course and distance. If I can get 7/2 or bigger, then I could well be tempted into a bet. Sadly I reckon he'll be quite a bit shorter and I'd be wary at sub-3/1 odds about a horse we know little about.

Sir Thomas Gresham interests me, though. He's lightly raced for an 8 yr old, has a low draw, will race prominently and is invariably on the premises. The oddschecker tissue suggests 8/1 and I'd certainly have some of that as an E/W bet if available and you could make a case for Hickory, who too is lightly raced, but has won three of six. He wasn't beaten by far last time out and should be involved again here. His OC tissue price is only 6/1, though, so no E/W bet there.

It's a very open race, but these would be the three I'd want to focus on.

4.45pm odds update : My three are priced at 5/2, 9/2 and 7/2 on bet365's opening show, so the oddschecker forecast wasn't great and I'm not going to get involved at those odds. Should any drift, then I could well have a bet later.

Racing Insights, Saturday 15/07/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.10 York
  • 3.30 Ascot
  • 3.52 Chester
  • 4.27 Chester
  • 4.45 Navan
  • 5.05 Salisbury

And despite the obvious pull of the Appleby/Buick partnership, I want to move away from HQ after two posts from there this week already. So, I'm staying closer to (my) home because there's a Class 1 race on the list of free races, the 4.27 Chester, a 10-runner Listed contest over a left-handed 7f on what is currently good to soft ground that is softer in places. there's quite a lot of rain around in the North West (as always!) and I'd not be surprised to see this go to soft by tea-time Saturday. That said, here's the card...

He's A Monster won last time out and is four from six so far, Brad The brief has won two of his last four, Mount Athos is three from five and although winless in eight since scoring on his debut, Holguin has five runner-up finishes and a third places from those eight efforts, finishing 222 in his three races in Listed company.

Ffion and He's A Monster both step up from good runs at Class 3, whilst Think climate was in Class 2 action a fortnight ago. Witch Hunter is in decent nick right now and is denoted as a fast finisher and he, like Think Climate and three others all raced a fortnight ago.

The rest of the field bar Misty Grey have raced in the last seven weeks, though, with Misty Grey now returning from over six months off. he wasn't in the best of form before his break and that allied to a potential rustiness puts me off him.

He's A Monster, Holguin and Think Climate are all three years old, so they'll carry 3lbs less than the two females (Fast Response & Ffion) and 8lbs less than the top half of the card, which should be very handy here. Speaking of weight, Brad The Brief is the highest rated runner here at 112 and would be best off at the weights, but for the 108-rated Holguin getting that 8lb pull for his age.

The 6yr old mare Ffion is the sole course and distance winner in the field, but Misty Grey, Mount Athos, Witch Hunter, He's A monster and Think Climate have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere.

Instant Expert adds to the above data by telling us that three of the field have won on good to soft ground and that three have scored on soft. We also see that we've three previous Class 1 flat winners...

If it does end up being soft, then brad the brief would be a better bet than if it was a bit drier. The returning Misty Grey hasn't gone well at Class 1 and his sole Flat win was over 6f. Sam Maximus has also struggled at his level. As for their place form...

...both Witch Hunter and Holguin look really comfortable under these conditions. They're drawn at opposite ends of the stalls (in boxes 2 and 8) and the old adage of needing/wanting to be drawn low at Chester is backed up by the stats from similar past races...

...whilst the best place to be in those races above is as close tot he lead as possible...

Our field has raced as follows in their most recent outings...

...and I'd probably want to be with those in the top four of that list.

Summary

Holguin and Brad The Brief are best in at the weights, both scored well on Instant Expert, both are drawn in the inside three stalls and both will be up with the pace, so they're both in my final three. They're also both 4/1 co-favs with Witch Hunter, who I do like, but he's going to have encounter traffic and I think that stops him beating the other two and I'm not going E/W at 4/1 about any horse.

If I'm going for an E/W bet, i'm taking the generous-looking 10/1 from Hills about the in-form He's A Monster. I know he's up in class, but he has won four from six, his draw isn't horrific and he's certainly going to be up with the pace, so he'll do for me. As for the winner, I (marginally) prefer Holguin over Brad The Brief, mainly due to the weight allowance.

Racing Insights, Saturday 08/07/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Haydock
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.50 Haydock
  • 4.15 Sandown
  • 4.37 Beverley
  • 5.17 Leicester

There are better races out there, but I do like to tie the daily feature in with the list of free races, so let's have a look at the 4yr old filly Oriole in the 4.37 Beverley, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Bringbackmemories and Freak Out both won last time out, whilst Richard P Smith and Havana Party both won their penultimate starts, but Crown Princess has failed to win any of her last ten. Top weight and featured horse, Oriole takes a drop in class here, as do Poet's Dawn and our LTO winners Bringbackmemories and Freak Out.

Solar Joe and Crown Princess are the only runners yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but the latter has at least won on this track albeit at 1m½f just over two years ago. The experienced Poet's Dawn has won four times over that 1m½f trip here at Beverley, as well as a win over 7½f, whilst Freak Out's LTO win was over this course and distance just 11 days ago.

He'll be the one with the least rest between runs, but all of these have raced in the last six weeks or so, meaning that none of them should be too rusty. Quite a few of this field have reasonable records under certain aspects of the forecasted conditions, but none have excelled and some have struggled, according to Instant Expert...

There's more negatives in the above than there are positives, but that's to be expected down at Class 5, but the main concerns surround Bringbackmemories (trip), Crown Princess (going/track), Freak Out (going), Poet's Dawn (going/trip) and Havana Party (class). Perhaps the place stats might show some of these in a better light...

That certainly puts the likes of Crown Princess in with a shout of making the frame and there's no real horror stories there, suggesting that any of these could grab a place in a contest that currently has no obvious winner. If we then turn to the draw, there's not a great deal in it, but the lower stalls have fared better than those drawn higher...

...but you'd have to expect that over 1m2f on quick ground that the draw bias could easily be undone and that race positioning aka pace will be of a greater importance, so let's see how those races above have unfolded...

Essentially the further forward a horse races, the more chance it has of winning/placing, therefore if we've any confirmed front runners around, they'd be the ones to focus on, but sadly that doesn't appear to be the case based on recent events...

There's not many of these wanting to take it on, so there's the chance of a falsely run race, but the top three on that list do at least have the ability to get on with things.

Summary

It's not a good standard of race, but it's certainly competitive. No odds available for this at 3.45pm on Friday, so I'll come back to this later on, but my thoughts are that the likes of Bringbackmemories and Freak Out who both won LTO should be involved with Crown Princess in with a shout of making the frame.

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/07/23

/in /by

Wow! The second half of the year is already upon us and it kicks off on a Saturday, whose free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just one qualifier, as follows...

Thankfully I do also have our selection of daily 'free' races at my disposal...

  • 12.40 Newmarket
  • 1.57 Chester
  • 2.05 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Curragh
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 5.30 Lingfield

The 'free' list is headed by a Listed contest from HQ, but unexposed 2yr old fillies aren't really my thing and the Northumberland Plate has far too many (19) runners for my liking, but not long after the Plate comes a useful looking contest on the 'free' list at the same venue, so let's look at the 3.50 Newcastle today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard to slow tapeta...

Bottom weight Shimmering Sands was the only one of these to win last time out, but all his rivals have won at least one of their last seven outings. Qaasid is in good consistent form, finishing in the first three home in 8 of his last 9 nine starts (inc 2 wins) and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field and also the only one to have raced at Class 3 last time out.

Elsewhere, Mr Curiosity, Thundering, Noble & Persist all drop in from Class 2, whilst the bottom three on the card, Cockalorum, Innse Gall and Shimmering Sands are all up in class. Aside from C&D winner, Qaasid, only Thundering has won here before, landing a 1m4½f handicap a little over a year ago, but he's one of two along with Mr Curiosity yet to win at today's trip.

The afore-mentioned Mr Curiosity might well need the run after 238 days off the track and at 273 days, you could say the same about Persist, whilst both of their rivals have raced in the past 5 to 7 weeks, bar Cockalorum who was in action at Pontefract last Sunday and will be running for the fourth time since the end of May!

Cockalorum has, in fact, competed 48 times already, whilst this will be just a fifth outing for Nobel and only his second in handicap company, but he did win his sole A/W outing. Instant Expert adds to the above data by informing us that a couple of these are running off marks considerably higher than their last win...

I've a feeling that the place stats might help us a little bit more in the way of data...

...but I'm not sure they clarify the picture for me! Good to see so much green, of course and this remains the course if we look at just A/W form...

...with the sole exception of Shimmering Sands, who tackles the A/W for the first time after ten runs on Turf. He's 3 from 3 over 1m2f including that win LTO, but he's up in class and weight and that allied to no A/W experience might just be too many unknowns here. He's drawn pretty centrally, though, in stall 4 of 8 and is likely to have to pass quite a few runners later on if he's wanting to win again, as the field's recent runs suggest he's probably going to be held up in the rear with the returning Persist...

A quick look at past similar races here says that Shimmering Sand's lower half draw is ideal here, but that his hold-up tactics haven't been the best approach here, as those tracking the leader(s) have fared best of all...

...which is probably better for the likes of Qaasid, just inside him in stall 3, whilst our pace/draw heat map looks like this with our runners superimposed on it...

Nobel is likely to set the pace, but Qaasid seems to have the ideal draw/pace profile here. Thundering will go off quickly, but he's in terrible form, whilst the draw might account for Cockalorum.

Summary

The pace/draw heat map says we should focus on Persist, Thundering, Qaasid and Noble. Noble's a little high in the draw and will be the target they aim for, he's also not in the best of form and has only one prior A/W outing, way back in December 2021. Qaasid, however, is in good nick, has the ideal pace/draw balance and is 2 from 3 on standard to slow and he's the one I'd want to be with here. he's a 5/1 shot in my book, so Bet365's price of 11/2 (at 4.40pm) is acceptable to me.

Of the others, Persist should go well and he'd be a real contender for me off his low draw if he'd had a run at some point in the last nine months and odds of 3/1 aren't appealing. The one at a longer price that might go well for E/W purposes could be Innse Galle near the foot of the weights. He has made the frame in 6 of 7 at this trip, placed twice in four Newcastle outings including two from three over course and distance (a 1-length defeat as runner-up in March) and although this is tougher than his usual races, he's not a bad E/W shout at 10/1.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/06/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a stack of qualifiers for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Chester
  • 3.05 York
  • 3.10 Hexham
  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.20 Hexham
  • 5.55 Leicester

Now, two of our free races from Hexham also contain runners from my TJC qualifiers, but the free list has a Class 1 race that it would be rude to ignore, so we're going back to the Knavesmire (where my 1-2-3 finished 3-1-2 for a £170 trifecta and I'd a couple of E/W successes) for a tilt at the Listed Grand Cup Stakes. Your cards have it as the 3.05 York, a 7-runner flat contest for horses aged 4 and over who will tackle the left-handed mile and three quarters on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...

...they might well be right, of course, but (a) that's not always the case and (b) we might still find something here...

ROBERTO ESCOBARR has 3 wins and 2 further places from ten starts on the Flat and landed this very race two years ago. His best result to date is a Group 3 win on his last outing, but that means he now concedes 5lbs to the boys and 10lbs to the girls here, making life tough.

ISRAR has 3 wins and 3 places from 9 and was narrowly beaten in a Newbury Group 3 last time out, when headed on the line in the Aston Park stakes four weeks ago. There was no disgrace in getting caught by a typical flying Frankie Dettori finish after a 196-day layoff and he should strip fitter here slightly down in grade.

OUTBOX is a useful Class 2 (or lower) handicapper, but a win and two places from 14 efforts at class1 speaks for itself, as does a current losing streak of eleven races stretching back a week shy of two years.

QUICKTHORN stays all day, as shown when he landed the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup here in August of last year, finishing 14 lengths clear after racing 2m½f. He hasn't quite hit those heights since, but was only three lengths down over course and distance in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup last month, despite being hampered late on and coming off a 31-week absence. Like Israr, should come on for the run and also down further in grade.

RHYTHMIC INTENT has won just 4 of 29 so far and was only 4th of 8 at Ascot last time out. Admittedly he wasn't beaten by far, but that was a Class 3 handicap, he's winless in six and now makes a Class 1 debut. Surely he's only here to try and beat a couple for some prize money or to keep stable mate Quinault (runs in the 3.45 race) company in the van.

CHING SHIH gets a 5lb allowance as one of two 4yo fillies in the race and she won a Class 4 Novice event on her second outing way back in October 2021. Only four races since then, all at Class 1 (a Gr 3 followed by 3 x Listed) and she's never looked like winning although she did stay on well last time out when upped in trip to 1m4f, finishing 3rd of 9 and might (I did say might) actually benefit from another two furlongs here (siblings are 12 from 87 over 1m5f to 1m7f on the Flat over the last three seasons), but not one you'd expect to be winning here.

DIVINE JEWEL is like, most Frankel offspring, useful and consistent. She hasn't been out of the first three home in any of her six starts so far (232122), but that's all at Classes 4 & 5 (C5 for the sole win) and you've got to expect this to be far too tough. I'd say she's the worst of the bunch, but her 5lb weight allowance might drag her into the pack.

At this point, I'd be inclined to agree with the bookies about it being a two-horse race, but let's see if Instant Expert can give us a way in...

...where the favourites don't actually stand out too much. Israr lacks relevant experience and Quickthorn has just about done enough to avoid being in the red and it's top weight Roberto Escobarr who looks best suited if it wasn't for the weight penalty for his LTO success, whilst the place stats make all of them look better apart from poor Ching Shih...

As a statistician, I struggle with the concept of arguing against proven data, but sometimes (rarely), I have to ask myself to check twice and this is one of those occasions. Check out the draw data for races here at York over 1m4f and beyond on good to firm ground...

Surely there can't be that much of an advantage in being drawn highest in a small field over such long races? Yet even the stall-by-stall analysis says there is...

...suggesting that three of the outsiders, Ching Shih, Rhythmic Intent and Outbox might have some form of advantage here. This might sound dangerous/controversial, but I'm exercising my own judgement/interpretation here and I'm ignoring that data, because even if that trio are helped by the draw, I don't think they're good enough to make full use of it! Personally, I think race tactics (ie pace) and actually class/ability will come to the forefront here.

Regarding pace, those 38 races above don't really show a pace bias either (wow, I'm not getting much help from the data today!), aside from saying that racing just behind the leader(s) haven't fared as well as other running styles, which based on the following...

...might put Israr at a disadvantage behind Quickthorn.

Summary

Sadly, at this point I'm going to tell you what you probably already know from my opening gambit that...it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...and that's about the sum of it. Of the favs, I prefer the 15/8 Quickthorn over the 7/4 Israr, but it's not a race I'd want to throw much money at.

Roberto should grab third, unless the weight gets to him and with Ching Shih carrying some 10lbs less, she might be the one who comes from the back to challenge him. That said, we're only getting paid on two places here, so maybe it's a "grab a brew and put your feet up" kind of race after all.

Have a great weekend everyone and Happy Fathers Day to all of you dads.

Racing Insights, Saturday 10/06/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

..plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.55 Punchestown
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.00 Bangor
  • 5.00 Beverley
  • 6.00 Punchestown
  • 7.30 Chepstow

...and from all the above, we have one from the TJC Report running in one of our free races, so let's head to North Wales where local hero Donald McCain and his 8 yr old Heartbreak Kid are likely to be popular in the 4.00 Bangor, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase taking in 15 fences over a left-handed 2m4½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

Featured horse Heartbreak Kid is our only LTO winner, having broken a 7-race losing spell by winning here over course and distance three weeks ago. Norley has won two of his last three and is 3 from 6 and Midnight Jewel has won 6 of his last 12, whilst Joly Maker is 3 from 8, but Ridgeway has won just one of his last nine. Yggdrasil and Fire Away, however are winless in six and seven respectively.

Yggdrasil makes a first appearance for David Pipe just seven weeks after his final outing for Jane Williams and he wears blinkers for the first time too. That seven week break is the longest of all the runners here with the remainder having raced in the last 12 to 26 days.

Only Norley, Fire Away and Ridgeway have yet to win here over course and distance, but the first two of that trio have at least won over a similar trip in the past. Instant Expert then tells me that only Yggdrasil is winless in good ground NH contests, albeit from just two efforts and we learn that all of them have won at least one Class 4 contest (Yggdrasil and Fire Away have both won at C3 too)...

Fire Away's recent poor form is reflected by a 17lb drop in weight from his last win and although Heartbreak Kid is up 5lbs from his recent win here, he's still 4lbs lower than his Uttoxeter victory last year and both Norley and Midnight Jewel have greater gaps back to their last winning mark that the kid's 5lbs.

Joly Maker's form on good ground and at Class 4 is wretched at 2/21 and 1/15 and his sole Class 4 win came on heavy ground, although that was only three starts ago. Midnight Jewel's best form has been at Class 5, but his record under today's 3lb claimer Lilly Pinchin reads 1211F24, so they clearly get on well.

The above data is for all NH races, so let's have quick look at their chasing records...

...where there are some really good numbers, especially from Heartbreak Kid and Midnight Jewel. Only the going blots the record of Yggdrasil and Norley and these four look like the main contenders here and three of them look like they'll be the ones setting the tone of the race...

...whilst Norley will be waited with. That said, the approach to a contest like this rarely boils down to pace, as there's little bias if any at play in this type of contest...

I know it looks like mid-div runners do really badly, but the sample size is so small that had two more runners won, they'd be at 17.4% up with the others, so I'm not ruling any out here on pace, but I am purely focusing on the four better runners from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've already cast Fire Away, Ridgeway and Joly Maker aside for reasons that will have become obvious earlier on, but I need to jettison one of my shortlist to leave me with my 1-2-3 and the unlucky one here is going to be Yggdrasil. He's sure to improve under David Pipe, but that might take a little more time and his form is the worst of my final four, so my top three are (alphabetically) Heartbreak Kid, Midnight Jewel & Norley.

Heartbreak Kid won LTO after a cold spell and although up 5lbs is still 4lbs lower than a win from last year. He won by 6 lengths here over course and distance LTO and that could have been a much bigger margin, such was the way he put the race to bed late on. Trainer & Jockey have excellent individual and joint records here and that C&D win will have given the horse vital experience.

Midnight Jewel is 211F2 over fences and was contesting the lead at the last when he fell. He's solid at this level and gets on really well with today's jockey. Had a pipe-opener over hurdles recently after a break of 196 days and should be fighting fit here today.

Norley won back to back Class 4 handicaps over similar trips to this one inside ten days in April, one over hurdles and then his first chase success. That got him walloped with a 9lb rise next/last time out, when he was only 3rd of 5 here over course and distance three weeks ago, when 10.75 lengths behind Heartbreak Kid.

The Kid beat Norley last time out by almost 11 lengths and although Norley is now 6lbs better off, I don't see him overturning that result, especially as the winner seemed to have plenty in hand. Midnight Jewel is likely to make this more of a contest, though and I don't see there being too much between him and Heartbreak Kid, so they'd be my 1-2 with Norley third best of the trio.

Heartbreak Kid should be winning this, but if he's not on his game like he wasn't for the fifteen months between his last two wins, incurring some heavy losses along the way, he could get turned over here. From the limited odds available at 4.45pm on Friday, Heartbreak Kid was the 15/8 favourite with Bet365 offering 9/2 against Midnight Jewel and I don't think the horses are that far apart, so whilst the Kid should win, the value call here is Midnight Jewel.

Racing Insights, Saturday 03/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day overall form...

1-year overall form...

Course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.50 Epsom
  • 1.50 Musselburgh
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.45 Stratford
  • 6.10 Lingfield
  • 8.00 Tramore

...and although the Epsom 'freebie' is a Group 3 contest, we do have a qualifier from my TJC Report running in a 'free' race, so we're heading twenty miles South East of the Downs for the 6.10 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard polytrack...

Featured horse Citizen General is the only LTO winner in the field, having won here over slightly further (1m5f) three weeks ago, taking his current run to three wins and a runner-up finish from his last five outings. Of his rivals, only Appier had a top 3 finish on their last run and he also won two starts ago. Open Champion, Arcadian Friend and Night Eagle are the others with a win inside their last five runs.

Citizen General is up in class here, as are Nawras, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King, but top-weight Open Champion actually drops down a level here from a ninth place (of 10!) finish at Epsom 39 days ago. That break is the longest of the six to have had a recent run, but Bright Start, Nawras and Arcadian Friend might be a little rusty coming off respective absences of 132, 203 and 255 days.

Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have won at neither track nor trip, but the other six have done both with four (Open Champion, Appier, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King) having won over course and distance at the same time. This will be Nawras' handicap debut after just four stats, whilst it's Liseo's seventh outing, but only his second in a handicap and his first in cheekpieces.

Aside from not winning here or over this trip, Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have no A/W wins yet, according to Instant Expert...

It turns out that the trio are actually 0 from 20 between them and despite making the frame in 5 of his 10 starts, the winless Bright Start must be vulnerable here and if I was to discard any runners here, if would be the bottom foru on the above graphic, leaving me with (in draw order)...

Arcadian Friend is probably the weakest of the five on that evidence and carrying 10lbs more than his last win might prove difficult here, but he is drawn highest of my quintet for a race that has favoured those drawn highest, especially for the places...

...but as you all probably know, I'm not a massive fan of the school of thought that says the draw can't kill you before you stat over trips like this, so we should focus on tactics/race positioning ie pace and those races above haven't been overly kind to pace-setters or dwellers...

...with those racing just off the pace or in mid-field reaping the most rewards, which might suit the bottom trio on this graphic more than the two above them...

...with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that Open Champion could be well suited here...

Summary

Open Champion looks well placed to bounce back to form after struggling on unsuitably soft ground LTO and he did won over course and distance on his only other previous visit to Lingfield. He's currently priced at 10/1 with Bet365 and I think that's a decent price for an E/W tilt.

I say E/W, because I think featured horse Citizen General and Appier tick more boxes for me based on the evidence/data above and whilst I doubt there'll be much between them, Citizen General won last time out and he won here, so he just edges it for me. The bookies also think it'll be tight and they've gone 10/3 joint favs on the pair.

Good Luck and have a great weekend.

Chris

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just two runners under each of the 1-year overall and 1-year course form filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Ascot
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 3.05 Nottingham
  • 3.30 Navan
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 5.55 Warwick

...and of those ten (free list plus report qualifiers), there's a Class 2 race at Ascot in both sectors. The 23-runner Victoria Cup (2.40 Ascot) is too far out of my comfort zone, so I'm going to assess the chances of Belhaven in the 2.05 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Featured horse Belhaven was a winner last time out, as were Timeless Melody and Mountain Song, who finally got off the mark after three runner-up finishes. Only Perfect Thunder, Farhh To Shy and Beccara Rose are without a win in their recent form line.

Belhaven does however step up a class after her recent win, as do Sly Madam and Farhh To Shy. One Morning is up two classes, along with Mountain Song and Beccara Rose, whilst Timeless Melody's recent win was at Class 5! On the other hand, both Don't Tell Claire and Mottisfont are both down from recent Class 1 runs after racing in Listed / Group 3 company respectively.

Don't Tell Claire now wears cheekpieces for just the second time, Perfect Thunder makes a yard debut for Patrick Owens, whilst it's handicap debut day for One Morning, Timeless Melody, Mottisfont and Beccara Rose (who runs from 2lbs out of the handicap). It's also only the second handicap outing for top weight Julia Augusta as well as Mountain Song.

We have two 3 yr olds in the field, Mountain Song and Beccara Rose and they'll benefit from a very healthy 13lb weight (for age) allowance in this open handicap and the former has already scored over today's trip, as have Julia Augusta, Don't Tell Claire, featured runner Belhaven and Sly Madam. Don't Tell Claire is our only previous Ascot winner, courtesy of a class, course and distance victory twenty months ago.

Most of the field have an outing this season already, but Perfect Thunder, One Morning and Julia Augusta might well need this run, as they come off breaks of 202, 234 and 302 days respectively.

A look at Instant Expert then adds to the stats above by highlighting that feature horse Belhaven is one of just three to have won on soft or heavy ground and that she and the afore-mentioned Don't Tell Claire are our only Class 2 winners on display...

...whilst many of their rivals lack previous experience under these prevailing conditions, but a quick look at the place stats does at least add a bit more colour...

...with Don't Tell Claire Belhaven and Perfect Thunder probably of most interest.

Over a straight mile, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the draw wouldn't have much effect and although the following is based on a fairly small sample size...

...the lower half of the draw has really struggled in similar past contests, as shown here in the stall-by-stall data...

...and this gives some advantage to those drawn 7 or higher here. This draw bias is probably stronger than any perceived pace bias, but the small number of leaders have won more than their fair share of races...

The effect of the draw is probably better highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...so as long as One Morning, Perfect Thunder, Mottisfont, Belhaven and Sly Madam aren't hold-up horses, their chances of success should be enhanced by the draw. So, let's look at how they've approached their most recent races...

Belhaven may have a average pace score of 2.25, but she did lead last time out and a similar approach puts her right in the mix here. Don't tell Claire is hampered by both draw and running style and the pace here is likely to be down the centre wit the in-form Mountain Song.

Summary

We started with Belhaven and we're going to finish with her. I think she's good enough to win this race, but probably won't. She's 2 from 3 and 4 from 7, but a 7lb rise for her LTO win takes her mark to a career high 87, some 20lbs higher than her win seven races ago last May. She's also up in class here, so I think this might be just too much for her.

That said, most firms are paying four places and I think that she's good for a place. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it might work for you. As for the winner, I think I fancy Mountain Song to defy class and weight rises because she might well be afforded a soft lead and 4/1 seems a fair price.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.23 Cork
  • 2.50 Newmarket
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 5.15 Newmarket
  • 7.25 Doncaster
  • 7.40 Hexham

...from which, I'm heading back to HQ, but not for either of the Appleby/Buick races, but to the 5.15 Newmarket from our 'free' list. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good/good to form ground...

Bottom weight Chasseral won her last outing, Shaquille won his last two (and is three from four) and Expert Agent comes here off the back of three straight wins, whilst only Tenjin and Almaty Star are winless in their recent formline. Mind you, the latter has been placed in two of his three career starts, but the former is winless in eight and has won just one of twelve overall.

Only Tenjin, Shaquille and Ferrous raced at Class 2 LTO, as Brave Nation last raced in a Listed contest (but was last home), as did Bonny Angel (6th of 16). Washington Heights now steps up one class, Expert Angel & Eminency are up two classes, whilst Buccabay, Almaty Star & Chasseral all raced in Class 5 company most recently!

Plenty of these handciap experience, as it's just a second attempt for Washington Heights and Ferrous and it's debut day for Brave NAtion, Shaquille, Buccabay, Almaty Star and Chasseral.

None of these have won here before, mind you only four have raced here, just once each, but all bar Brave Nation, Washington Heights and Almaty Star have at least won over this trip.

Most of the field have been seen in the last four weeks, but Shaquille has been off for five months, Chasseral last raced in September 2022, whilst it's August 2022 that Brave Nation was last seen and six of the field have already scored on good or good to firm ground, according to Instant Expert...

As is often the case with early season three year olds, the place form tells us a lot more about the runners. It doesn't usually highlight a winner off such small pieces of data, but it does 'warn' you of those who might have already been tried and failed ie Brave Nation has toiled on good to firm since winning on debut, Tenjin's 'best' (and I use the word loosely) form has come on the A/W and Expert Agent has also done his best work away from the turf.

I think I've happy to discard all three at this point and Tenjin is unlikely to run after already losing here on Friday!

You'll probably not be too surprised to find there's no discernible draw bias over the straight 6f here...

...and the key to winning those races above has been pretty simple, get out quickly, run as fast as you can and hold on for as long as possible...

...which is ideal for the hat-trick seeking Shaquille from stall 11 of 11...

Summary

Shaquille ticks most boxes here, he's three from four, hasn't been treated too harshly on handicap debut, his jockey is in good form and rides this track well. Shaquille had the most 'green' on Instant Expert and has the best pace profile for this type of race. The only drawback is the 154 day break since his last run/win. That said, he did win on his racing debut and I'd expect him to be the one to beat here.

Sadly, others also expect him to win and the best we can get at 6.25pm is a widely available 3/1, but that's probably just about fair. You can then perm any two from six for the places, but the one that (mildly) interested me was Washington Heights. He probably needed the run when 9th at Thirsk recently after seven months off. Five furlongs was too sharp and he didn't enjoy the soft ground. He had ended last season finishing third of sixteen in a Listed race over 6f at Redcar, a couple of lengths behind a subsequent Group 3 winner and he'd a couple behind him who have also won since. A repeat of that run puts him in contention and 10/1 E/W (generally, but Sky & Coral pay four places) might be a good option.

Please Note : Family duties beckon on Sunday, so my next column will appear on Monday for Tuesday's racing. Enjoy your weekend however you spend it.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 4.15 Leopardstown
  • 4.35 Wincanton
  • 5.52 Leopardstown
  • 8.15 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted one trainer for 3-day form and one for course 5-year form as follows...

...and with Robert Walford's Amelia's Dance running in one of our 'free' races, it makes sense to look at the 4.35 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Mares' Handicap Hurdle over a right-handed 1m7½f on good to soft ground...

None of these come here off the back of a win, but Lady Adare has won four of five career starts, No No Tonic has won two of her last six and Gentle Connections is four from six.

Gentle Connections, Puffin Bay and Somespring Special all step up one class, whilst Addosh is up two grades from the A/W, having failed to complete her last two over hurdles. Something Special is on handicap debut here, it's a second handicap run for Lady Adare.

Puffin Bay turns out for Harry Derham for the first time since leaving Oliver Sherwood and is also tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Lady Adare runs for the first time since a recent wind operation. All bar Amelia's Dance and Somespring Special have previously won over a similar trip and the three course winners, No No Tonic, Puffin Bay & Petticoat Lucy have all scored over course and distance.

In terms of recent activity, No No Tonic, Amelia's Dance, Somespring Special & Petticoat Lucy have all been out fairly recently (19-39 days), Addosh and Lady Adare have been off for 10/12 weeks respectively, whilst Gentle Connections hasn't raced since late October with Puffin Bay rested since July!

Instant Expert suggests that Lady Adare should enjoy the underfoot conditions, but makes us aware that this field haven't really proven themselves at Class 3...

...whilst place form looks like this...

From the place form, No No Tonic looks a decent proposition to make the frame, but at 16lbs above her last winning mark and 2lbs higher than her recent runner-up finish, she might be weighted out of a win. Gentle Connections' win and place from two Class 3 outings might be the best on offer, so let's have a quick look at how many Class 4 wins the field achieved...

...which again suggests that Lady Adare might well be the one best suited here with both Gentle Connections and Addosh faring well. I know from her run of wins that Lady Adare does like to race strongly up with the pace, but based on this field's most recent efforts, I don't think she'll be afforded an easy lead...

...with No No Tonic, Petticoat Lady, Gentle Connections and Puffin Bay all also liking to be near the head of affairs. Amelia's Dance has raced prominently in her last two and Somespring Special was up with the pace last time out, meaning we could have a bit of a tear-up here with Addosh probably the one sitting out the bunfight and that's probably not the best way to approach a short-distance contest here at Wincanton, if the following rings true...

...and I think I'm probably best sticking with the top half of the pace graphic ie  No No Tonic, Lady Adare, Petticoat Lucy and Gentle Connections.

Summary

Having split the field in half for a four-runner shortlist, let's have a quick look at the quartet...

LADY ADARE won a bumper, a maiden hurdle and two novice hurdles in her first four career starts before finishing 6th of 9, beaten by 26 lengths at Taunton on handicap debut in January. That run was off a mark of 130 and came after a break of 321 days. She's had the benefit of that run, has had a wind op and is rated 3lbs lower, so shouldn't be discounted

NO NO TONIC won here over course and distance (she's 211 over C&D) on Boxing Day and was a runner-up in back to back February outings at Chepstow, before being pulled up at Fakenham last time out. She's a pound lighter here and a return to her favoured track-trip might be all she needs.

GENTLE CONNECTIONS won a 2m5f maiden hurdle at Southwell almost a year ago and follwed that up with a hat-trick of novice hurdle wins in May/June. Two unsuccessful runs since that you could make an excuse for (1 at Gr2 and 1 over three miles!), but now rated at 117, the same as her last win, she has to enter calculations.

PETTICOAT LUCY was the three length winner of a 15-runner course and distance contest here on Boxing Day 2021 on just her second effort over hurdles, but has failed to win since, finishing P84P43, but did go well at Chepstow last time out, when beat 3rd of 12, beaten by less than 4 lengths off a pound heavier than today.

I'm not sure that the above has really clarified things, but it does suggest that we might well have a really competitive affair on our hands. I think any of the four could win and they all have the right pace profile, so I should probably walk away and advise NO BET, but if I was to have or even just advice a bet, I'd consider the market for any possible value and as it looks like this...

Lady Adare 9/4 (Bet365/Hills)
No No Tonic 15/2 (Hills)
Petticoat Lucy 9/1 (Hills)
Gentle Connections (14/1 Bet365)

I'd probably swerve the fav and suggest small stakes E/W bets on any or all of the other three.

Good Luck!

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/04/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.17 Stratford
  • 3.05 Bellewstown
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

From which, we have a Class 2 race on the 'free' list and also one on the TJC list. The former is worth considerably more than the latter, so we're off to Essex for the 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W Conditions Stakes over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Plenty of in-form runners here to consider, as you'd expect for a race of this standard with Physique winning last time out, Think Climate winning his last two, Bold Act & Iconic Moment have won three on the spin, whilst Brave Emperor has been first past the post in his last five efforts, even if he was demoted to second two starts ago. Stormy Entry is two from three and Coco jack/Tenjin are the ones who probably look weakest on recent results alone.

LTO winner Physique does step up two classes here, though, which will make life tougher as will a three step rise for hat-trick seeking Think Climate, but stablemates Iconic Moment and New Defifintion ran at Class 1 four weeks ago resulting in a James Tate-trained 1-2 in a Listed race with the pair separated by just a short head with the re-opposing Tenjin a length further back.

Only Brave Emperor (over 6f), Iconic Moment (7f) and Think Climate (7f) have won here at Chelmsford so far, whilst Bold Act (at Kempton & Newmarket), Brave Emperor (Kempton) and Stormy Entry (Dundalk) have all won over the one-mile trip. All bar three of the field have raced insde the last four weeks but Think Climate, Physique and Bold Act are returning from layoffs of 116, 155 and 191 days respectively.

It's a conditions stakes contest, so they all carry the same weight (9st 7lbs), meaning that the trio of Bold Act, Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are best off at the weights, being rated at 101. Alzahir and New Definition are only officially rated one pound worse, but Stormy Entry and Think Climate are considered to be some 12/13 pounds worse than the top-rated trio.

Instant Expert has more stats for us, such as highlighting the six runners sharing eleven standard going wins between them and showing just one previous Class 2 A/W winner...

Brave Emperor is the obvious standout here along with Iconic Moment and I suspect that this pair are very likely to be amongst the ones we should be considering for our winner, whilst Tenjin doesn't appear to be well suited at all. Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are both in the lower half of the draw in stalls 3 & 5 respectively...

...which is the better place to be, as the higher drawn runners have fared much worse than those in stalls 1 to 6. Draw, of course, isn't the be all and end all, especially here at Chelmsford, where the old adage is "get out quick and stay out", but is that really the case? Let's check...

Well, that's a definite yes! The further forward you race, the better the chance of a win/place, so let's consider the most recent pace profiles of the field...

...which suggests that Brave Emperor is likely to be front and centre here, along with some company, of course. Iconic Moment, however, may have to negotiate traffic later on if he's to succeed. Brave Emperor is therefore a low drawn leader and that looks ideal for this contest...

Think Climate will probably go hard early on, but the layoff might well take its toll and this is a big step up for Physique.

Summary

Iconic Moment looks a class act, but I'm not sure his running style lends itself to Chelmsford, so that hands the initiative to Brave Emperor who has ticked boxes throughout the process and at 9/2 could offer some real value. I expect Iconic Moment to be finishing fast, but I'm hoping he doesn't quite get there, but this pair could well be the first two home.

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/03/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a pair of runners for both the 1-year form and course 5-year filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 3.05 Hereford
  • 3.55 Ayr
  • 4.20 Gowran Park
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...and with a couple of my TJC Report qualifiers running in 'free' races it makes sense to focus on one of those. The Sandown race is clearly the better standard, but 17-runner novice handicaps aren't really my bag, so let's focus on the 3.55 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good/good to soft ground...

Joint youngest (with Donna's Double) Readysteadybeau is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Glittering Love was a runner-up beaten by just a head. Cash To Ash, Strong Economy, Glittering Love and Crixus's Escape are all winless in five and the latter in one of a few with plenty of letter in their formline, as his last seven races contain 4 x pulled up and a last of seven. Perversely, he was a runner-up in the other two!

Plenty of Class movement here, as only top-weight Fortified Bay, Donna's Double, Strong Economy and Readysteadybeau ran at Class 3 LTO with Just Don't Know and Niceandeasy both dropping down a class and Cash To Ash, Glittering Love & Crixus's Escape all up from Class 4, which doesn't inspire confidence in latter who has failed to complete his last two at a lower grade.

LTO winner Readysteadybeau wears a visor for the first time here, whilst bottom weight Crixus's Escape returns from an eight break during which he had wind surgery, but he's not the one who has been away from the track the longest as Niceandeasy (71 days), Strong Economy (122d) and Glittering Love (72d) all come off 10+ weeks absences. The rest of the field have raced in the last 24-40 days and they might well have the edge being more "match-fit" to steal a footballing term.

All of them have had some success at course, distance or both. Fortified Bay is the only one yet to win here, but has won at Newcastle over three miles. Of the remaining eight runners, all bar Donna's Double and Readysteadybeau are former course and distance winners, with Niceandeasy winning this race last year and Cash To Ash winning the year before! Donna's Double dis win a 2m4½f chase here whilst Readysteadybeau has won a 2m5½f chase here and a 3m½f hurdle at Haydock. As for their records over fences on similar ground conditions and class, we always have Instant Expert...

...which as well as highlighting lots of great course form does ask some questions about several of these. This race was a Class 4 contest when Niceandeasy and Cash To Ask won it recently and neither have won a Class 3 chase yet and are a combined 0 from 11, but that's not as bad as Strong Economy & Glittering Love's total of 1 win from 16. These numbers put all four at risk here and Cash To Ash's record over this trip is pretty poor too at 2 from 16, as is the 1 from 7 scored by Crixus's Escape, whose form has been so bad (11 without a win) that he's now some 22lbs lower than his last winning mark.

In terms of the ideal pace profile here, we're looking for a horse that likes to be up with the pace if this is anything to go by...

...with those running in mid-div or further back winning just 6 of 108, as opposed to 20 front-end winners from 105 winning almost 3.5 times as often and that's going to suit the likes of Just Don't Know, Fortified Bay, Cash To Ash and Readysteadybeau, based on recent outings...

Summary

The pace angle is going to be so important here and I think the top four on the pace chart is the place to start. My first job, of course, is to get rid of one of them for my top three shortlist and it's a pretty easy call to eject Fortified Bay from proceedings based on his inconsistency (3 x PU in his last 7)and the fact he's top weight.

So, we have three and whilst Cash to Ash is still in my mix, I don't see him repeating his 2021 success this time. He's only 2 from 23 over fences but has made the frame 11 times (47.8%) showing that he's essentially a near-miss type generally worth backing E/W or for a place, but not a winner. He's currently 7/1 here, which is borderline for my own E/W confort zone, but you can make your own call on the price.

All of which brings us to Just Don't Know and Readysteadybeau, who'll both be very prominent here and there's not much between them, but Just Don't Know runs off the same mark as LTO (Ready is up 2lbs), JDK scored slightly better on Instant Expert, drops in class and is a former course and distance winner and I think that his current (4.25pm) 5/1 price with both Bet365 & Hills represents better value than his rivals 5/2 & 3/1, so it'd be Just Don't Know for me here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 25/02/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers solely on the 5-year course form filter as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.35 Fairyhouse
  • 1.57 Chepstow
  • 2.05 Lingfield
  • 3.07 Chepstow
  • 5.10 Chelmsford
  • 5.20 Kempton

Jockey Stan Sheppard has a good record on Tom Lacey's horses at Chepstow and they team up in just one handicap on Saturday, a race that also happens to be on the free list. Now, it's a bigger field than I'm generally comfortable with (12 is my usual limit), but let's see how Operation Manna might get on in the 3.07 Chepstow and whether there's also an E/W bet or two to be had from this 15-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap hurdle. The trip should be just over 2m7½f, but a 200 yard rail movement has extended it to 3m½f on good to soft ground that is quicker in places and is being watered to stop it turning "good"...

FORM : Ballybegg, Kings Keeper, Top of the Bill and The Kniphand all won last time out. Operation Manna is three from five and Kings Keeper/Top of the Bill/Take Your Time/The Kniphand are all two from five with the latter on a hat-trick. Surrey Quest/Bells of Peterboro/My Bobby Dazzler/Thanksforthehelp are all winless in five. LTO winner Ballybegg has failed to complete three of five and Southfield Harvest/Take Your Time have two incomplete runs.

CLASS : Bells of Peterboro is down one and Bear Ghylls, Ballybegg, Southfield Harvest, Kings Keeper, Surrey Quest, Take Your Time, My Bobby Dazzler and Thanksforthehelp are all up one class. Top of the Bill, The Kniphand and Operation Manna are all up two classes with just three (Jon Snow, Galileo Silver & Dubrovnik Harry) running at this Class 2 last time.

WHAT'S NEW : Top weight Jon Snow makes a handicap debut on his first start for George Baker, Bear Ghylls is in first-time cheekpieces as are Surrey Quest & Thanksforthehelp (who runs for the first time since wind surgery) whilst Southfield Harvest is blinkered for the first time

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : Southfield Harvest (2m bumper) and Operation Manna (2m4f hurdle) are former course winners and Jon Snow, Galileo Silver, Southfield Harvest & The Kniphand have all won over a similar trip to this one whilst Bells of Peterboro, Toip of the Bill and Take Your Time are all former course and distance winners.

LAST RUN : Take Your Time has had a 12-week rest, Top weight Jon Snow has been off nearly five months and it has been eight months since Galileo Silver was last seen. He was in fine form, though when signing off with a run reading 11P2212. The rest of this field have all raced at least once in the last two months, but all have had a fortnight or more to get over their latest effort.

Suitability for expected conditions is quickly and easily shown via Instant Expert...

There's not actually masses of experience of these conditions when all is said and done with Bells of Peterboro's eleven attempts at similar trips the most we've got in any section. Some have, of course, fared better than others and Top of the Bill is probably the eye-catcher on wins to runs. I suspect that many of these will look better if we just considered place form...

...which might help to form an E/W bet later. Weight might be an issue for many of these with seven of them carrying 6-9lbs more than their last win with one at +4lbs and another at +5lbs. Take Your Time, however is now 3lbs lower and represents a yard that won this race in 2021 (& 2016), whilst last year's race was won by the trainer of Top of the Bill and The Kniphand.

Past large field races over this going/course/distance have favoured those brave enough to attempt to set the pace and those keeping handy to the pace have also done well here...

...which based on the more recent efforts from this field...

...suggests we might well have a proper battle on our hands with so many of these preferring to race prominently with only Top of the Bill and out and out hold-up horse.

Summary

The Kniphand looks like the 'form' horse here and he's two from two at the trip, he's going to be up with the pace and despite being raised another 7lbs here for his most recent win, that might not be enough to arrest his progress. He's still unexposed after five starts and there's probably more to come from him. He'd be the one to beat in my book, but 5/1 in a 15-runner race hardly sets the pulse racing.

Of the rest, there are a few that I like the look of ie Dubrovnik Harry, Bells of Peterboro, Galileo Silver, feature horse Operation Manna, Kings Keeper and Top of The Bill. In a race where the bookies are paying four places, I'd not be surprised if the four placers are in those seven I've listed, but I wouldn't back The Kniphand or Operation Manna at just 5/1 and I'd be concerned about Top of the Bill trying to come from the back of the pack, if there was plenty of early pace.

This leaves me with possible E/W bets. I'm not sure which Dubrovnik Harry turns up here, though. If he races prominently, he would be a decent pick at 11's, but he has been held up in two of his last three and I wouldn't want that here.  Kings Keeper has never been beyond 2m4.5f and although he stayed on well last time out, he's up in class, trip and 6lbs, so I' want more than 17/2 about him.

And so, almost by default, we're at the 12/1 Bells of Peterboro and the 9/1 Galileo Silver. Both will be up with the pace and both are attractively enough priced for an E/W bet. Bells wasn't disgraced last time out and this former course and distance winner now drops in class. He had a full line of green on the place side of Instant Expert and could well be worth a 12/1 play. The fly in the ointment with Galileo Silver is a 224-day absence, but he was in great form last winter and travels/jumps well. He has finished fourth and second after breaks of 187 & 190 days respectively, so the lay-off might not be an issue and a 9/1 bet might just see a small profit from the race.

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/02/23

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Another blustery day expected on Saturday where the free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...in addition to our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are set to be...

  • 1.20 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 3.27 Gowran Park
  • 3.50 Haydock
  • 5.30 Newcastle

Neither of my TJC Report runners appear to be in particularly good form, so I'm going to stay relatively close (approx 30 mile SW) from (my) home for a crack at the 3.50 Haydock, a 12-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m4f on good to soft ground...

This looks (on paper, at least) a really open/competitive affair, a thought backed up be the fact that Hills (only book open at 3pm) had the first eleven in the betting split by just 5pts from 5/1 to 10/1! with Courtland the 18/1 outsider and the bottom weight 8 yr old does look the weakest to me too in a field where only Evander and If Not For Dylan won last time out, but the former hasn't raced for 689 days since scoring at Ludlow and the latter is up a class here, as is Garincha, whilst our two other class movers, Golden Whisky & Quid Pro Quo drop one and two classes respectively with the latter making a handicap debut 99 days after his last run where he was last of seven in a Cheltenham Grade 2.

Regarding form, only High Moon (placed in his last two) is without a win in five, although he did win six back almost a year ago. We know that Quid Pro Quo is on handicap debut already, but the card also says that Maypole Class has had wind surgery sometime in the last seven weeks and we're also told that the returning Evander has changed yards, but that's not quite true, it's more of a licencee name change with Josh Guerriero joining Oliver Greenall as joint-trainer during Evander's hiatus.

Garincha is the youngest here at 7yo, some 4 yrs younger than Magic Dancer and they are both among the ten in this race to have already won at a similar trip (Super Six & Courtland being the odd ones out), but only The Paddy Pie is a former Haydock winner, having won and placed in two efforts over course and distance. We know that Quid Pro Quo (99 days) and Evander (689d) have both been off for over three months, but the rest of the field have all raced inside two months, but seem spilt into two date ranges...

17-20 days off : Enzo D'Airy, Super Six, The Paddy Pie, High Moon, If Not For Dylan
48-59 days off : Golden Whisky, Magic Dancer, Maypole Class, Garincha, Courtland

We know that most of these should get the trip but only one has won here (only four have raced here), but Instant Expert can tell us more...

Golden Whisky has struggled in this grade at 1 from 11, but does have a win and a place from four at Class 2. Magic Dancer's 1/13 on good to soft is mainly hurdling form, he has one placed finish from three over fences. Enzo D'Airy is one from three over fences at this trip, but Maypole Class is probably a Class 4 runner. I'm a little surprised at The Paddy Pie's 1 from 9 on good to soft when his record is better on both Good and on Soft, so there's no reason why the ground should be an issue for him.

If we then consider the pace profiles of these runners, based on their last three or four outings, we see at least two definite groups forming, those that want to get on with it early doors and those that don't...

I'm not sure how Courtland will approach this to be honest, he tends to race prominently, but might inadvertently find himself back in mid-division if the six ranked above him all decide to make a go of it. What do I expect is that the ones towards the rear of the field will be the bottom four on that list.

Unfortunately there aren't many similar races to this in the Haydock programme and even with an expanded filter, we don't get much data from a search, but this is what we do see...

...where the out and out leaders (Evander/High Moon, perhaps?) end up getting beaten by those just in behind, which could bode well for The Paddy Pie, Enzo D'Airy, Super Six and Golden Whisky. Hold-up horses have struggled, which suggests a tough day for Quid Pro Quo, Maypole Class and Garincha, but If Not For Dylan won last time out after a change in tactics from hold-up to prominence. That was his first win in seven, since winning from an advanced position at Perth, so I suspect he might have more of a go at it today.

Summary

It could well turn out to be cracking race and it looks super competitive, so the smart advice is to walk away, put the kettle on or grab a beer and just sit and watch it. That said, I know some of you can't/won't do that, so to take the piece to a conclusion, I think I'd want to be with the likes of Enzo D'Airy on form/Instant Expert/pace, Super Six for his consistency and pace profile and also If Not For Dylan on form and possible pace.

These three are currently trading at 5/1, 15/2 and 9/1 with Hills who are paying four places here, so If Not For Dylan might not be a bad E/W bet at 9's.