Tag Archive for: TJC report

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/12/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 1.05 Newcastle
  • 2.25 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock

...and with one of the six races above being a stayers' contest on tricky ground, let's head to the 1.30 Haydock, where the in-form Anthony Honeyball sends the 8 yr old Credo to contest a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on heavy ground...

Enqarde and Famous Bridge both won last time out, whilst Burrows Diamond and Credo both had runner-up finishes and Conkwell legend was third. Bill Baxter and Eleanor Bob have both won two of the last four, Famous Bridge is three from four and Credo is two from five and all have won at least one of their last seven.

Famous Bridge actually beat Credo by a length last time out over this course and distance with Eleanor Bob not too far back in fourth...

...and Credo is 3lbs better off with the winner here, so they're very closely matched, whilst Eleanor Bob is even better off today. That win by Famous Bridge here four weeks ago makes him one of two course and distance winners in this field, as Enqarde won this race last year and now runs off a mark 1lb lower than a year ago.

All bar Dr Kananga have raced in the last 14-45 days, but the 9 yr old has been off the track for some 40 weeks and has had a wind op during that time. He is, however, the only other horse in the race with a previous win over this type of trip.

Last year's and LTO winner Enqarde steps up a class here, but Bill Baxter, Burrows Diamond and Conkwell Legend all drop down from Class 1 action. Instant Expert says that the first named of that trio is this race's only previous heavy ground chase winner...

...but that several of them will enjoy the trip. To be fair to the runners here, they've not exactly failed on heavy ground, they've hardly experienced it and most of them have gone well on soft ground...

...whilst the place stats look like this...

...from which I think I'd be focusing upon Famous Bridge and Credo most. The pace data from the field's last few races say that Credo is likely to be held up for a run, whilst Famous Bridge tends to run in mid-division. All indications, however, point to the likes of Eleanor Bob and Dr Kananga setting the early tempo...

Our pace analyser suggests this early pace is the best approach to winning races here, but that a mid-divisional position is great for making the frame...

Summary

Famous Bridge, Credo and Eleanor Bob were first, second and fourth home here at class, course and distance last time out and I think that's where I want to be looking. Despite the pace stats suggesting that Credo might struggle, her yard is in cracking form and with a 3lb pull on the LTO winner, I fancy her to overturn those placings. Eleanor Bob is also better off at the weights here and was running for the first time in 21 months last time out. She gets weight all round here and should come on for having had the run and I suspect/hope we'll have a cracking three-way battle after three energy-sapping miles.

They are, understandably, well-fancied by the 4.30pm market...

...and with neither of them really long enough for an E/W bet, my play here is Credo at 11/2.

That's me done now until after Christmas, so wherever you are and however you spend Christmas, I sincerely hope it's an enjoyable one.
All the best,
Chris

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/12/2023

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 11.55 Hereford
  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Fairyhouse
  • 2.25 Cheltenham
  • 3.22 Hereford
  • 3.35 Cheltenham

All told, between the TJC qualifiers and the 'free' races, I've plenty to go at , but one race features on both lists, so we'll have a look at the 3.35 Cheltenham where in-form friend of Geegeez Anthony Honeyball sends the 7yr old Good Look Charm to tackle a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

The sharper eyed amongst you will also have spotted that Anthony has another runner in this race in the shape of Geegeez syndicate-owned Coquelicot, who will be partnered by Rex Dingle. This horse/jockey combination have six wins and four further places from thirteen races together, so that's another interesting angle to the race, I think.

Martha Divine is the only one of the ten without a win in five races, in fact she has been beaten in her last seven and now comes back off a break of nine months to make a yard debut for Harry Fry. She has had wind surgery during her lay-off and that should help her run better, she also sports a hood for the first time and Harry Fry's a great trainer, but I suspect her best is yet to come in later races!

All her nine rivals have had the benefit of a run in the last three to nine weeks with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm all winning last time out. Windtothelightning has won four of her last five, whilst Bonttay is three from four and has won six times from her nine career starts, finishing as runner-up in the other three!

She is, however, up two classes here (but did win a Class 2 two starts ago) and Windtothelightning also steps up a level. Conversely, top-weight Theatre Glory, LTO Listed class winner Coquelicot and handicap debutant Nurse Susan all drop down from Class 1 action.

Theatre Glory has already won over course and distance here at HQ, landing a Listed Novice Hurdle in April of last year and Bonttay landed a pair (Class 2 & Listed) of back to back 2m½f bumpers here in October/November 2021. Aside from Theatre Glory, though, only Windtothelightning, Coquelicot and Ilovethe nightlife have won over a similar trip to this one, even if Coquelicot did win over 3,1f last time out.

Results under similar conditions can, of course, be found by clicking the Instant Expert tab on the racecard...

...where in-form Bonttay looks the one to best, notwithstanding her lack of experience beyond 2m1f and her stepping bck up in class. Featured runner Good Look Charm will enjoy the soft ground, whilst Windtothelightning's record at the trip is excellent, although she does now run off 12lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby six weeks ago defying a 198-day lay-off. That weight hike aside, there are no real causes for concern raised by Instant Expert, so I'm going to look at the place data to try and 'eliminate some from my enquiries'...

I'm going to be rather picky here and just highlight the ones who have green or no runs at going/class/course/distance, leaving me with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm as my takeaways from Instant Expert, as we now move on to assess race tactics aka pace.

Geegeez followers will know from past reports that Coquelicot likes to do her racing from the front of the pack, but recent efforts by her rivals suggest that she might have some company up top from the likes of Stainsby Girl, Good Look Charm and Theatre Glory...

...with Zestful, Nurse Susan and Bonttay towards the rear, although the latter did win at Exeter four starts ago from a prominent position. That said, Cheltenham is a true test of a horse and the cream invariably rises to the top regardless of pace and whilst front-runners have had the edge on making the frame here in similar past races, the races have been won pretty evenly across all running styles...

...which pretty much takes me back to my Instant Expert quartet.

Summary

I've pretty quickly narrowed the field down to Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm, courtesy of Instant Expert and recent form and of these four, I think Bonttay is the one to beat, but the other three are more than capable on their day and all look to have a great chance of making the frame.

Bonttay is the 3/1 favourite as of 4.10pm with Coquelicot and Windtothelightning both priced at 7/1 with Good Look Charm out at 10's. Skybet are paying four places here, so all of them would be worth considering.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 25/11/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 11.00 Lingfield
  • 11.30 Lingfield
  • 12.20 Ascot
  • 1.50 Haydock
  • 2.13 Huntingdon
  • 2.20 Haydock

Harry Derham & Paul O'Brien team up with Scrum Diddly in one of our 'free' races, but only three are set to go to post, so we'll look elsewhere for today's preview. We'll stick with the TJC Report, though and see how the Williams/Deutsch combo get on with Eleanor Bob up against the Honeyball/Twiston-Davies team's Credo in the 3.35 Haydock, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on soft ground; a race won by Venetia Williams' Fontaine Collonges last year and the race where Sam Twiston-Davies won on Crievehill back in 2019...

All of the field step up at least one class to run here with the two at the bottom of the weights, stepping up two levels. One of our featured runners, Credo, is the only one coming here off the back of a win, but Sidi Ismael, Docpickedme, Coconut Splash, Wasdell Dundalk and Bali Body were all in the frame, whilst only Coconut Splash and Cap du Nord are winless in seven or more outings (13 and 7 respectively to be precise and the former is 0 from 13 over fences).

Most of the field have been seen in the last four weeks, but top-weight Sidi Ismael hasn't raced for almost eight months, whilst our other featured runner, Eleanor Bob, hasn't raced since falling at Fontwell almost 21 months ago and both might well need the run.

We don't have much in the way of course/distance form with only Haute Estime having a Haydock win (2m3f hurdle) under his belt, whilst Docpickedme's 3m1f chase win at Southwell and Bali Body's 3m2f hurdles win at Hereford are the closest we've got to a distance success, but Instant Expert says that most of the field have won a chase in the 3m to 3m2f range and that most have won on good to soft or soft ground, so that could be promising...

...unlike Coconut Splash's dismal record of 12 defeats on this going. Cap du Nord's win record at Class 2 leaves plenty to be desired, as does his 2 from 22 over similar trips. I think it's fair to assume I won't be backing either of these two to win here, even if their place stats are a little better...

based on the place stats, I'm more drawn to the likes of Credo, Bali Body and Wasdell Dundalk, who are likely to make their run for home quite late, if their last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it looks like Eleanor Bob and Docpickedme might be left to their own devices to set the tempo of the contest, but that hasn't always been a successful tactic over fences here at Haydock...

Summary

I was drawn to Credo, Bali Body and Wasdell Dundalk at the Instant Expert phase of my analysis and the fact that all three like to come late is a bonus, so I think I'm going to focus on this trio. Credo is one of our two featured runners, she's the only LTO winner in the pack and her yard is going really well right now. The trainer/jockey combo have had a great year together and at 11/2 with Hills, we might have a nice little bet on our hands.

Wasdell Dundalk has been running really well for some time now, finishing 11122 over the last three months and although he's up another 2lbs here, he could make his presence felt and a 17/2 E/W bet might not be the worst decision you make this weekend, whilst Bali Body is still unexposed over fences, but has made the frame is all three efforts to date, finishing 312. He defied a 701-day absence to finish third at Wetherby three weeks ago and although up in class here, he does receive weight all round and would be another to consider from an E/W perspective at 10/1 with Bet365 who'll pay four places here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/11/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.35 Cheltenham
  • 1.19 Wetherby
  • 2.01 Lingfield
  • 2.12 Uttoxeter
  • 2.29 Wetherby
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

And with the weather in mind, I'm playing it relatively safe by heading for the A/W (whilst my wife goes to Uttoxeter!) and 2.01 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Top weight Greatgadian is our sole LTO winner, but Regheeb is two from three in the UK and Udaberri was a runner-up 16 days ago. Udaberri, however, is one of just two (along with Throne Hall) without a win in seven or more outings and he's up two classes here which probably won't help to improve his 0/12 record on the A/W!

Top-weight and LTO winner Greatgadian is up one class, as is Citizen General but Storm Catcher, Forca Timao and Thundering all drop down from Class 2. This will be Regheeb's second run in a handicap and his first outing since being gelded, whilst Expressionless wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Thundering was last seen seven weeks ago and Citizen General has had 12 weeks off, but the rest of the pack have raced in the past five weeks with five of them seen this month already.

Despite his inexperience, Regheeb has already won over course and distance and Citizen General won here over 1m5f back in May, whilst Greatgadian, Storm Catcher, Throne Hall and Thundering have all won over similar trips elsewhere as documented by Instant Expert which suggests the lower half of the draw is stronger or better suited than the higher half...

The only cause for concern above might be the apparent 13lbs difference between Citizen General's mark of 88 as opposed to his victory off 75 here in May, but he has since won off 80 on turf, so whilst he still needs a career best effort to win here, the gulf isn't quite as large. The subsequent place stats make Udaberri's form a little more appealing, but I'm already doubting his chances here...

As you've probably guessed, Expressionless makes an A/W debut after eight mainly soft/heavy ground outings on turf where he has two wins and a place after landing back to back soft ground 1m½f contests in April this year.

Our Draw Analyser says that there shouldn't be too much of a bias at play here, but if any stall are more favourable than others, then the first four stalls are the place to be and with the lower draws having the best of it from Instant Expert, that might be the place to focus upon...

And whilst there might no be much in the draw, that's certainly not the case with pace/tempo/tactics, as our Pace Analyser clearly suggests that those racing prominently or leading fare best here...

...with the low drawn prominent/leading runners enjoying the most success...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent races...

...you'd suspect the early pace is going to come from one or more of Throne Hall, Forca Timao, Regheeb or Citizen General and they take their places on the heat map as follows...

...assuming, of course, they run how they have tended to of late.

From the heat map alone, Regheeb is the one who interests me most, especially if he allows Throne hall to do the running and he just sits in behind.

Summary

I think I want to be amongst those drawn lowest and they have the best Instant Expert scores and with pace in mind, the one I'm looking at is Regheeb at 7/2 (Bet365). He's drawn low, has the ideal pace profile, he's lightly raced but has won 2 of his 3 UK starts, including a course and distance success at this grade back in September.

Greatgadian is the 9/4 or 5/2 fav here and he ticks plenty of boxes, but his lack of early pace might cost him the race. This lack of pace throughout the field might lead to an unfancied runner nicking some of the place money and if that happens, then the 11/1 Forca Timao might well be able to take advantage from out wide.

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/10/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Newbury
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.39 Kelso
  • 4.29 Kelso
  • 4.45 Cheltenham
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

There's a card full of Class 2 races at Jumps HQ and whilst there are more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, I'm going to see if I can highlight any potential E/W bets (Bookies are paying 4 & 5 places) in the 2.25 Cheltenham, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1f (+88yds) on good/good to soft ground...

If we start with what the card tells us, we see that Quick Draw and Whacker Clan both won last time out and that Twig comes here seeking a hat-trick. He, like bottom-weight Swapped, has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings, whilst top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has twelve consecutive top-three finishes including seven wins, whereas Mister Fogpatches is winless in eleven and Yes Indeed is an eight-race maiden.

Hidden Heroics has had wind surgery since he last ran some 162 days ago, whilst Wayfinder has been off for 229 days and has also undergone a wind op during that time. Lord Accord won this race last year and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but Kinondo Kwetu, Twig, Brief Times, Undersupervision, Wayfinder, Snapped and Hidden Heroics have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere with the latter named being the only other previous Cheltenham winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap novice chase over 3m2f last December, as included below in Instant Expert...

Top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has never been to HQ before, but ticks plenty of boxes otherwise in a promising-looking graphic with quite a bit of green championing the causes of Twig, Lord Accord, Hidden Heroics, Wayfinder and Swapped. The Wolf is the one who looks least suited by expected conditions and we know that Yes Indeed has failed to win all eight career starts, but the graphic below says he does have some place form at least...

...but he's still way down my list of possibles that continues to be headed by Kinindo Kwetu. He tends to bide his time in mid-division to come for a late run and if we look at how the entire field have approached their last few races, I suspect the early pace will come from the likes of Hidden Heroics, Whacker Clan and Swapped...

There's no out and out hold-up horse on that graphic, but deeper digging says that those two recent prominent runs from The Wolf are out of character and he usually races in the rear, so he and Mister Fogpatches will probably be the early back-markers over a course and distance that doesn't really have a huge course bias...

...as we've all watched numerous Cheltenham Festival 3m+ chases and seen winners from the front, middle and back. Cheltenham is a true test in my opinion and those best suited to conditions are the ones who tend to do best.

Summary

With the lack of a draw in NH racing and little pace bias to work from, we revert back to form and ability/suitability to the task and the ones ticking the boxes for me in that respect are Kinondo Kwetu, Twig and Quick Draw with honourable mentions for the likes of Swapped.

In a big field like this, I tend to either not get involved or just look for some E/W action and with all bookies paying at least four places (5 at PP/Sky!), there should be some scope for us here. To be honest, I'd be happy to back all four on an E/W basis if the price was right.

Quick Draw is borderline at 15/2, but Kinondo Kwetu and Twig are priced at 12's and 9's respectively and this pair have got great chances in my eyes.

Swapped is completely unfancied by the market and you can get 33/1 for 5 places and whilst this is a tougher assignment than he has faced so far, his form over fences (21112) is excellent and he receives weight all round. It'd be a bit of a shock if he won, but he could well take a top five position if things fall his way.

Racing Insights, Saturday 21/10/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated these qualifiers for me to consider...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 3.35 Newton Abbot
  • 4.08 Market Rasen
  • 4.21 Limerick
  • 4.45 Market Rasen
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...and I think we'll have a look at Bergerac and the 3.40 Catterick today. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...

The top two in the weights, Vintage Clarets and Wen Moon, both won last time out and Glorious Angel was a runner-up (in a race we covered here on Insights), but Vintage Clarets win was at this grade, whilst the other two are both up a class, as are Strong Johnson, Never Dark, Copper Knight, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay!

Manila Scouse and Bergerac did run at Class 2 last time though, but bottom weight Zargun is up two classes despite not winning any of his last 16 outings; Bergerac and Count D'Orsay are winless in eight and nine respectively.

All of these have had at least one run in the last four weeks with most having raced last Friday at York finishing 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th and 10th, whilst Bergerac was withdrawn...

Zargun may well be out of form right now, but he won this race two years ago, making him one of four course and distance winners along with Manila Scouse, Dickieburd and Count D'Orsay, who won this race four years ago. None of the others have won here at Catterick, but all bar Bergerac have won over today's trip; his 'best' form has been over 6f so far and his failures at 5f are highlighted by Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Wen Moon and Never Dark will be much more at home on soft ground than the likes of Manila Scouse and Zargun, whilst most of these have toiled in this grade. Copper Knight is easily the most experienced here and has clocked up 10 wins from his 58 efforts at Class 2, which is a respectable 17.24% SR. Aside from Wen Moon's small number of qualifying runs above, there's not a great deal to shout about here, so let's check the place stats from those races...

...where Wen Moon and Manila Scouse have the best numbers and with no green for place form in any of going, class, course or distance, I'm happy to discount the claims of Bergerac, Never Dark, Copper Knight and Strong Johnson, who come from stalls 4, 7, 8 and 10, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias at all, it favours those drawn lowest!

Sadly for me and my reckoning, that's not the case...

...but that doesn't mean we can't still be on the right track. At the end of the day, it's a 5f dash over a straight track and there really shouldn't be massive advantages from a particular stall and it's generally pace that wins the race over the minimum trip and here at Catterick, those 30-odd races above back up my theory...

...and this is backed up by the three best pace/draw combo positions all being taken by horses who led...

...and based on recent performances, this could mean another big run from Glorious Angel. She was in a race we covered last week and was only headed very late on, going down by a neck and looking at her last four runs, I suspect she'll attempt to make all here again...

...which gives us the following heat map...

Summary

From our pace/draw heat map, Glorious Angel looks to have a great chance of at least making the frame and at an early price of 9/1, I'd be inclined to have a small E/W bet on her. She has been the runner-up in three of her last five, but is on a long losing run, so for me Wen Moon and Vintage Claret are the ones to beat.

The latter doesn't look too good on that heat map, but raced prominently last time and beat Wen Moon by a neck in a big-field £30k handicap at York. He's actually 3lbs better off with the runner-up here, so with a similar approach in this race, I'd take the 4/1 Vintage Clarets to beat the 3/1 Wen Moon.

Glorious Angel is the E/W pick, of course, but Count D'Orsay might well be dangerously overpriced at 12/1 and with quite a few firms paying four places...

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 30/09/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

5-year course form...

One of those races is a 34-runner affair and the other a Class 6 Nursery, so I'm grateful that as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.00 Gowran Park
  • 4.30 Market Rasen
  • 4.45 Killarney
  • 5.15 Ripon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen

The first of those six races is clearly the 'best' on paper, as it's a Group 1 race worth over £150k to the winner, but I'm not big into 2yr old races, so we're going jumping in Lincolnshire as we look at the 4.30 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Princess T and Coolnaugh Haze both won last time out, but the latter's stablemate Enthused is the form horse coming here seeking a hat-trick and has seven top 3 finishes (inc 3 wins) in a row. Addosh and Stonific are the only two without a win in their race-card form line after nine and eleven consecutive defeats respectively.

Their chances of ending their losing runs aren't helped by them both stepping up two classes here, as do Chance A Tune (who hasn't raced for over two years!) and Coolnaugh Haze. The veteran of the race, the 12yo Mcgroarty, however, drops down in class after finishing eighth in a Listed event at Auteuil.

Chance a Tune is the only one yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Mcgroarty, Addosh and Stonific have actually won over course and distance; none of the others have won here before, though. As mentioned above, it's more than two years since Chance A Tune was last seen and although his record in 2021 read 1432, I suspect he might well need the run here. The others have no such worries and have all raced in the past 11-42 days.

Relevant past results can be seen via Instant Expert...

...where Castel Gandolfo looks weak on going, class and trip whilst remaining 5lbs above his last winning mark. Glorious Zoff is 9lbs higher than his last win and his record on good ground and over this trip also look suspect. Old-hand Mcgroarty looks like he'll enjoy the conditions, but he also hasn't raced in the UK for almost two years, having raced a dozen times in France instead, winning twice in July.

As for place form in those races above, that looks like this...

...where top and bottom weighted horses look most vulnerable and Castel Gandolfo's numbers are very good, considering how few of those races he has actually won. Coolnaugh Haze has no Class 2 form, but was a consistent placer at Class 3.

Bearing Chance A Tune's lengthy absence in mind, the pace scores might not quite be accurate here, but if he runs the same way as he used to, then I suspect he's going to be the one setting the pace here with a whole bunch of horses stalking him ready to pounce as he tires. I'd also expect the likes of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff to be held up for a late run, based on the evidence of their last four outings...

It is entirely possible, of course that Liverpool Knight (pace scores of 414 in his last three) won't let Chance A Tune dominate and going with him early would appear to be the best tactic, based on how over 100 past similar races have panned out...

Summary

Chance A Tune is likely to fade (IMO) and I think the pace will do for the chances of Addosh, Stonific and Glorious Zoff and the first two of that trio are in dreadful form anyway. Of the remaining seven, none really jump out and scream 'back me!', but based on the evidence above, I'm drawn to LTO winner Coolnaugh Haze and he's currently a 5/1 shot with Hills.

Elsewhere I think that perpetual 'places often, but doesn't win enough' Castel Gandolfo will do the same again ie be close but not close enough and he's 13/2 if that's long enough for you to go E/W, whilst the in-form and current fav Enthused is sure to be in the mix.

If I wanted to take a punt on one that might outrun his odds, then the 18/1 Mcgroarty might do the trick for E/W bettors, especially if you can get four places.

Good luck and have a great weekend!
Chris

PS a heads up...I'm off to Greece on Saturday morning and won't be home until Wednesday 18th October. I will, of course, endeavour to write this column every day, ship/resort wi-fi permitting, but the timing of my posts might vary. There won't be a preview for Monday 2nd, Monday 9th nor Wednesday 18th, but I'll do my best for the remainder!

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/09/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...14-day form...

...1-year form...

...1-year course form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 3.10 York
  • 3.20 Listowel
  • 3.35 Ayr
  • 4.05 Catterick
  • 5.30 York

The first of those free races has two of our highlighted trainer/jockey combos, but 25-runner sprints aren't really my bag if truth be told, so I'm going a little off-piste today and setting the TJC report and the free races aside to take a look at one of the highest-rated handicap races of the day, the the 1.15 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a a left-handed mile on good to soft/soft ground...

Top-weight Koy Koy, Isla Kai and Redarna all won last time out, whilst 2021's winner Revich, Titan Rock and Judgment Call all made the frame. Sole 3yo (4lbs allowance for this) and sole female Sirona is winless in six, whilst it's 16 losses on the bounce for Fools Rush In.

Only four of this field (inc LTO winner Isla Kai) ran at this grade last time out as Koy Koy, Diamondonthehill, Stormbuster and Judgment Call all step up a class, whilst both Redarna and Fools Rush In are up from Class 4, but none of these should be too rusty, having all raced in the last five weeks or so.

Revich won this race over course and distance two years ago and Redarna has also won over track and trip. Judgment Call and Titan Rock have won here at Ayr over 7/7½f and the latter has won over a mile elsewhere, as have Koy Koy, Isla Kai, Diamondonthehill and Stormbuster, as verified by Instant Expert...

...which apart from a dismal record at Class 2, suggests Redarna will enjoy the conditions. In fairness, none of these have exactly set the world alight at this level, but Redarna is 5 from 19 at Class 3, where Isla Kai is 4 from 6. Quite a few of these do, however, have decent records at making the frame at Class 2, so all might not be lost...

...and from this, I'm probably most interested in Isla Kai, Koy Koy, Redarna, Revich and Stormbuster, who are spread across the track from stalls 1 to 9 over a track and trip that hasn't been too kind to those drawn highest...

...which isn't good news for Koy Koy, Revich or Sirona. It's not the end of the world, of course, because the pace/draw heat map suggests that these three have a great chance of winning if they can get away sharply...

...but they certainly don't want to be down the field in the early stages, as hold-up horses have tended to struggle...

...with those racing furthest forward having the best chance of making the frame. We can now check how this field have approached their last few outings to help us make a reasoned assumption as to how they'll race here...

My deduction from the above is that we might end up with a falsely run race, with no real pacemakers and no hold-up horses, although Stormbuster, Isla Kai and Judgment Call have led in one of their last four outings.

Summary

Isla Kai brings the best 3-race form to the table here and of the three LTO winners, he's the only one not stepping up in class. he had no red on the place form on Instant Expert, and has made the frame in four of five starts on good to soft. There's a good chance there'll be more rain at Ayr and he's three from three on soft ground. he won far more cosily than the bare result suggested at Ripon last month and he's the one to beat here.

He was the 4/1 fav at 5.45pm on Friday and I'm happy enough at that, as I though he might well be more towards the 3/1 mark. I'd expect the toughest challenges to come from the likes of Revich, who won this race two years ago and ran well enough to make the frame at Chester last time out, despite being drawn almost on the road by the track (stall 10!) and he's currently 11/2.

Of those priced in what I'd call E/W territory, Redarna (8/1) seemed well suited by his Instant Expert profile, whilst the 12/1 Judgment Call is 3123 in his last four starts and has won twice here at Ayr.

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/09/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Doncaster
  • 1.58 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Navan
  • 4.40 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Doncaster
  • 7.10 Musselburgh

The last two of the 'free' races each have a runner from my TJC Report and although it has more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, the better rated of the two is the 5.20 Doncaster, a 15-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground...

Only The Gatekeeper comes here off the back of a win, but Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher (won two starts back) and Freedom Day (won three races ago) were all in the frame on their last outings.

All have raced in the last two (Spioradalta) to eight (Liberty Lane) wee and most of these ran in this grade last time out, but Pisanello steps up a class and it's a two-step rise for Titian, Freedom Day and Look Back Smiling.

That latter pair are both 3 yr olds and they receive a 4lb weight allowance here, as does Spioradalta, who once again wears cheekpieces, as does Look Back Smiling. Elsewhere Spirit Catcher wears a hood, Blue For You has a visor and both Sonny Liston & Empirestateofmind are blinkered. La Trinidad, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling will all be ridden by claiming jockeys, but the latter pair run from 3lbs and 7lbs out of the handicap here.

All bar Sonny Liston, Liberty Lane, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling have already won over a similar trip, but onlt La Trinidad has won over course and distance. That said, Titian's win here over 1m2f almost two years ago is the only other course success, as Instant Expert says that the field are 3 from 15 here at Doncaster...

We do have some past soft ground form, but the field have generally disappointed at Class 2. We've touched on the course/distance wins, of course and the above doesn't really inspire. It does. however, suggest that some have tried and failed several times under expected conditions with Brunch, Empirestateofmind, La Trinidad and Dutch Decoy having struggled to win at this grade, whilst Brunch and Spirit Catcher's percentages over this trip leave work to do at 3 from 24. There is, of course, the possibility that they've been unlucky or have been 'there or thereabouts' in defeat, so let's check the place stats...

...where the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta have performed best.

We have fifteen runners strung across the track for a straight mile and I wasn't expecting to see much of a draw bias and the stats haven't let me down in that respect...

Sadly, this doesn't get me any closer to finding a winner or an E/W bet, but I suppose those drawn lowest might have a small advantage based on the above, but I suspect it will be a case of 'pace wins the race', by which I mean the horses that has the best tactics. Those races above for the draw stats have best suited those setting the tempo from the front...

...which based on recent efforts opens the door for the likes of Spirit Catcher, Titian and The Gatekeeper....

I also suppose that if we ignore his last outing, Liberty Lane will also be keen to apply early pressure.

Summary

This looks a wide open race and I can see why Sonny Liston is the early favourite after some creditable runs in defeat. I can't back him at 9/2 or 11/2 in a 15-runner race, though. Not when he's only 1 from 12 on turf and 0 from 5 at this trip. I know he has contested better races than this, but his sole win was at Class 4 in a 7f Novice event on debut more than 26 months ago. I'm not saying he can't win, but his current odds offer me no comfort.

So, where do I stand? Well, I want to reconsider form, Instant Expert and pace...

The Gatekeeper, Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher and Freedom Day appeared to be bringing the best recent form to the table, whilst the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta had the best place scores on Instant Expert. The pace angle pointed to Spirit Catcher, Titian, The Gatekeeper and Liberty Lane.

It's not exactly scientific, but in those three areas I've just revisited, the names of Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher, The Gatekeeper and Titian all appear twice, so this quartet are going to be my E/W possibles. And as of 4.15pm on Friday, my quartet were priced at 8/1, 10/1, 11/1 and 16/1 and I'd be happy to back any/all of them to make the frame. I'm not necessarily saying any are good enough to win, but who knows in such an open race?

The bookies are paying four places (5 at Sky, of course), so you can take your pick. As for the one I like best of the four; probably The Gatekeeper.

He won a similar soft ground, 1m, Class 2 handicap last time out when ridden by today's jockey Rossa Ryan for the first time and was a decent second in the 20-runner Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last month, when beaten by just half a length. He was first home of those drawn low and had Dutch Decoy a length and a place behind him with Sonny Liston a further two mplaces and 1.5 lengths further back.

Please Note : I'm away all weekend moving my youngest into university at Exeter (just 270 miles from home!), so I won't be around on Sunday to preview Monday's action, sorry.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 09/09/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

1-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 2.00 Ascot
  • 2.05 Thirsk
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

...and from the free feature and the free races, there's a UK Group 1 contest (too many runners for my liking) and a couple of Class 2 handicaps, so let's tackle one of those to see how Charlie Appleby's likely favourite Victory Dance might fare in the 3.10 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a right handed 1m4f on good ground...

Gallant Lion has won his last four and overactive comes here on a hat-trick, so they're the ones in the best form, but Victory Dance is 12133 from his five UK starts and Alsakib is 2113 from his four outings, so plenty arrive here in good nick with only Struth struggling to win, having lost seven on the bounce.

Top weight Victory Dance makes a handicap debut here and wears blinkers for the first time, but does drop down a class. Gallant Lion and Dancing In Paris are both up one class and Overactive is up two levels, whilst Benacre wears cheekpieces for the first time.

We should have no fitness issues with all having raced in the last 7-37 days, but we've no previous course winners (mind you, only Struth & Benacre) have been here and only three (Struth, Overactive & True Legend) have won over a similar trip as shown on Instant Expert...

...where Struth looks very weak. Most have won on good ground already, but only Alsakib has won in the grade although I should point out that Victory Dance has won a Listed race. Overactive comes here on a hat-trick after back to backs over this kind of trip, but he is used to slightly quicker ground. That said, it is very dry right now. Let's just have a quick look at the place stats before checking any possible effect of the draw...

Struth remains weak here and after a run of seven defeats, I suspect this now becomes number eight. There's not a lot of data there, but most of it is positive so I'll keep an open mind prior to checking the draw analyser, which suggests that those drawn lowest might struggle...

...whilst our pace analyser says that those races above have suited those runners willing to set the pace or those wanting to hang back for a late run, whilst those caught between the two stools have come off worst...

and the pace/draw combinations look like this...

...suggestiong that thos drawn lowest will need to get a shift on early doors to stand much chance, whilst those drawn highest can sit further back for longest. We know the draw already and we log the pace scores from each horse's run, so we can create a pace/draw heat map for this race...

...where the high drawn mid-division runner would be Victory Dance and possibly True Legend, who would also score well as a hold-up horse. Gallant Lion and Struth play the role of mid-drawn mid-div runners, another successful combination.

Summary

Featured runner Victory Dance ticks boxes on form and ability, his trainer/jockey do really well together and he looks to have the ideal pace/draw profile for this race. He's best priced at 4/1 right now and that's probably as good as I'd hoped for and I don't see many of these beating him. Alsakib would be a possible challenger here, based on form, although the pace/draw is doing him no favours. He's going to be thereabouts, as is Overactive who might well chase Victory Dance in the early stages.

Alsakib is too shot to back E/W at 9/2, but the 7/1 and drifting about Overactive is tempting, despite his step up in class. One at bigger odds who might do better than expected could be widest-drawn hold-up type True Legend. He didn't see 1m6f out last time at York, but was previously in good form over trips like today's and at 10/1 could be an E/W play.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 02/09/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.40 Navan
  • 3.38 Sandown
  • 3.50 Beverley
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 4.45 Sandown
  • 5.45 Chelmsford

The Sandown race from the free list is the highest rated of the races above, but 2yo contests really aren't my bag, but the preceding race on that card is the 'next best'. The in-form Beckett/Ryan trainer/jockey combo team up with Lord Protector and although the field is a little bigger than I'm comfortable with, there's the prospect of some E/W action with most bookies paying four places (some go five) in the 3.00 Sandown, a 14-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f (after 18yds rail movement) on good to firm ground...

Somewhat surprisingly for a big field in a decent standard of handicap, none of these runners even made the frame last time out and only Eagle's Way (4 wins), Lord Protector (1), Andaleep (1), Kitsune Power (1), Skysail (2) and Baltic Voyage (1) have landed any of their last six contests.

The entire field bar Great Max (who debuts for Michael Bell here), Dashing Roger and Skysail have however previously won over today's trip, whilst Lord Protector, Andaleep and Dual Identity are former course and distance winners. Dashing Roger has also won here at Sandown, landing a one mile, Class 3 handicap here in late May 2021.

All bar Groundbreaker have raced in the last seven weeks, but at 86 days, even he shouldn't be too rusty here after a recent wind op. Dashing Roger drops down a class today afteer being well beaten in a Group 2 at Ascot, but Stay Well, Great Max and Skysail are all up from Class 3, but the latter (along with Baltic Voyage) does at least get a 6lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.

Instant Expert says that Andaleep should relish conditions here...

...even if he is winless at Class 2. Plenty of his rivals (inc Certain Lad, Lord Protector, Stay Well & Dashing Roger) have a string of defeats at this level and Certain Lad also has a poor win record over today's trip, but he is now 7lbs lower than his last win, whilst most of his rivals are still running off higher marks than their on last successes, although Dashing Roger's last Flat win was off 14lbs higher than today's mark. That said, that win was over two years ago and he's finished 070700537 since.

As I might be looking for an E/W pick today, let's have a quick look at the place stats before considering any possible effects of pace/draw...

...where the following are of the most obvious immediate interest...

...not withstanding Kitsune Power's relatively weak record in this grade. He's drawn low in stall 4 here and although 1m2f is plenty of distance to undo a good/bad draw, those drawn lowest have seemed to have a slight advantage...

I wouldn't say that the draw bias was big enough to persuade/dissuade me when it comes to a selection, so I suspect/hope the pace stats offer me more assistance...

Those paint a much clearer picture of what might be required her with those racing prominently or leading winning 68% of the races from less than 35% of the runners and also faring better on the places. Hold-up horses have really struggled here in the past, which doesn't look like great news for Kitsune Power and Dual Identity if their last few races are anything to go by...

If we combine pace and draw, the heat map looks like this...

...with Lord Protector and Eagle's Way the one making most appeal.

Summary

This is a poor contest for a Class 2 handicap in my opinion with the field only having made the frame a combined 18 times from 91 Class 2 races, a pretty poor strike rate of 19.78%, with only 6 (6.6%) wins. It's a Class 3 race in all but name and on that basis alone, that's another tick for Lord Protector and Eagle's Way, who also made most appeal on the pace/draw heat map.

Eagle's Way was also one of the ones I highlighted on Instant Expert and with four wins and a runner-up finish from his last six outings, he's the one to beat here in my opinion. He's currently 7/1 with Corals and appears to be drifting, so he might even become an E/W pick. Lord Protector is a full point shorter in the market and although I expect him to go well, I don't tend to place E/W bets at 6/1, so he'd need to drift too for me to get involved.

If I was to highlight any of the double-digit odds runners who might run better than their price, I'd probably suggest the likes of Certain Lad and Andaleep at 16's and 14's respectively and they might be reasonable E/W punts if your bookie is paying five places.

Racing Insights, Saturday 26/08/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.00 York
  • 4.32 Newmarket
  • 5.10 Curragh
  • 5.20 York
  • 5.55 Killarney
  • 7.50 Windsor

...and of all the races listed above, the first of the free list is the highest-rated, so let's have a look at the 3.00 York, an 11-runner, Group 2. 3yo+ flat contest over a left-handed 7f on good to firm ground which is good in places. They've been watering and showers are expected, so it should remain slightly slower than good to firm for this group...

I'll start by saying that Kinross is likely to be a warm favourite here after beating Isaac Shelby in the Lennox Stakes at the start of the month and he, his trainer and his jockey also combined to win this race last year. His short price should, however open the door for a reasonably-priced placer or two, so let's dive in...

Surprisingly for a race of this magnitude, Kinross is the only one coming here off the back of a win, although Isaac Shelby was only a neck behind him in second (Audience was last of six 4.5 lengths back), whilst Jumby and Sacred were also runners-up on their last runs at Gr3 and Gr1 respectively.

That Lennox Stakes race featuring three of today's field was 25 days ago and only Pogo of this field has raced since that day, when a disappointing last of nine in the Hungerford Stakes last Saturday. The rest of this field were last seen 8 to 10 weeks ago, so all should be refreshed for the task in hand, where Sandrine wears a visor for the first time.

She's one of three (along with Sacred and Olivia Maralda) who'll get a 3lb mares' allowance here, whilst we have a trio of 3 yr olds (Covey, Isaac Shelby and Olivia Maralda again) who receive a 5lbs age allowance, meaning of course, that the 3yo filly Olivia Maralda is getting 8lbs from more than half of the field.

All eleven have won over today's trip, as you'd expect, but only Kinross and Pogo have won here at York; Kinross won this race over course and distance last year, of course, on his sole previous trip to the Knavesmire, whilst Pogo won a 1m, Class 2 handicap at this meeting four years ago. This pair of course wins is highlighted in Instant Expert...

I suspect the ground will be too quick for Sandrine, who is 1 from 8 on good to firm, but 3 from 5 on slower ground/AW. whilst Mutasaabeq is 4 from 8 on good ground and 2 from 3 on soft/heavy, so he'd probably want rain here. As expected, there's a whole stack of Class 1 wins for this bunch whilst Sacred (8 from 13), Kinross (9 from 15) and Isaac Shelby (3 from 5) have made the frame in 60% or more of their Class 1 outings to date.

The eleven runners have just 12 previous York runs between them, winning twice, although Pogo and Sandrine have both made the frame twice and Sacred was the runner-up in the Gr2 Lowther Stakes here three years ago. The trip should hold no fears for any of these with all eleven having a place strike rate of 50% or more (Kinross has made the frame in 8 of 9 at 7f!).

I don't expect the draw to have too much of an effect here, even if the bare stats suggest that those drawn centrally should have an advantage...

...because the PRB3 data suggests that Stall 5 (Al Suhail today) has fared the worst, despite it being deemed a mid-draw...

And if I'm right in assuming that one set of data cancels the other out and negates the effect of the draw, then it must mean that race tempo/positioning (aka pace) is more key to success here and those races above has been won as follows...

...which doesn't look good for leaders, who seem to get swamped later on by the stalkers. Hold-up horses make the frame most often, so if you're on a hold-up type with a jockey who is a good judge of pace, you could be quids in, but I think the key here is not to be the target up front. If we look at this field's last few outings, those pace stats might not be good news for the likes of Covey, Audience, Mutasaabeq and possibly Al Suhail/Isaac Shelby...

..but those from Kinross downwards on that chart will have enhanced chances of making the frame, assuming they're good enough, of course!

Summary

It's hard to get away from Kinross here. He's currently best priced at 7/4 with Hills and although I'm not a fan of backing shorties, that price might still actually hold some value.

He was second in last year's Lennox before winning this race, which he followed up with another Gr2 success before winning a Group 1 on Champions Day at Ascot in October. He probably needed the run when seventh in the Jubilee Stakes back at Ascot this June after more than eight months off, but in two runs since has finished third in the Gr1 July Cup and has won the Gr2 Lennox.

Isaac Shelby ran him relatively close last time out, although the winner did seem to have more in the tank and a similar run from the best of the three year olds puts him in with a good shout of making the frame again and as he's currently 7/1 and drifting, he'd be my E/W pick, especially if he drifts with either Skybet or Paddy Power who are paying four places.

Sacred might well beat Isaac Shelby here, as long as Tom Marquand times the later run correctly. This  5yr old mare has finished 1212 in her last four and was only beaten by a neck in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last time out. the quality of that run is sadly quantified by her current 4/1 odds, which are too low for my liking as an E/W bet, but she's a real contender for at least a place here.

Not many others are screaming 'back me!' here, though, but if I was tempted to place a longer-priced E/W bet in the hope of a top four finish, then the 3yo filly Olivia Maralda might fit the bill at odds currently ranging from 10/1 to 12/1. She's getting 8lbs from most of her rivals, runs well from off the pace (ideal tactics here), she likes the quicker ground and her yard is in decent form.

Racing Insights, Saturday 19/08/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a stack of qualifiers for me to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year form...

Course 5-year form...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Newmarket
  • 4.00 Curragh
  • 4.05 Newbury
  • 4.35 Curragh
  • 4.55 Newmarket
  • 5.50 Tramore

The Owen/Cobden partnership has been flying over the last year and their sole runner on Saturday is up against one of the McCain/Hughes runners and that partnership has been excellent on that track for many a year now, so let's see how Too Friendly and Finisk River might get on in the 3.20 Perth, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed two miles on good ground...

Top-weight Too Friendly, handicap debutant Liverpool Knight and course and distance winner Well Planted all come here off the back of LTO successes in the last four weeks. Too Friendly has two wins and a second from his last three, Liverpool Knight is on a hat-trick and only Earth Company (who hasn't completed 3 of his last 4) & Dexter are winless in seven.

Despite being winless in seven, Earth Company is up one class here on his debut for Patrick Neville, as are Finisk River and Well Planted, whilst the hat-trick seeking, handicap debutant Liverpool Knight is up two steps.

The bottom two on the card, Earth Company and Dexter are both tongue-tied for the first time and both makes debuts in new headgear : a hood and cheekpieces respectively, whilst both are ridden by claimers. Earth Company might also need a run after a 103-day absence, as all his rivals have raced in the past four weeks.

At this point, there's little going on in Earth Company's favour and I'm already sure I won't be backing him, even if Instant Expert says he has won at this trip and has scored on good ground...

There's not huge chunks of data to consider here, but it does highlight the inadequate results for Castel Gandolfo on good ground and at Class 2, whilst it does also say that Too Friendly's better form has come on different going (good to soft). Normally we'd then look at place stats, but they just seem to muddy the water...

...as based on that, virtually all of them have enough to make the frame, whilst from a pace perspective their chances of doing so are greatly increased by racing prominently or even leading...

...and the same can be said to a slightly lesser extent about the winners of those races. which is advantage Too Friendly, based on the fields recent performances...

Summary

Nice and quick today and a fairly easy decision for me to suggest Too Friendly as the one to beat.

The trainer/jockey combo have 6 wins and 3 runner-ups together from 11 races over the last year, the horse is in great (121) form and gets the trip readily. He's got the best pace profile of the seven runners and the only blot is his weaker record on good ground than he has on slightly softer, but that's probably why he's the 5/2 second favourite in the early market (4pm and only Hills open) rather than heading the field.

Liverpool Knight has that 'honour' at 9/4 and whlst he's in great form too, he's up two classes here and this will far tougher than the stroll around he had last time out. That said, he's sure to be there or thereabouts.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 12/08/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have only generated the following runners for me to look at...

...although you can't say this combo isn't hot right now! Thankfully, as always, we also have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.30 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Haydock
  • 3.40 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Kilbeggan
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.55 Kilbeggan

...and although it would now make perfect sense to look at Sleven in the 2.30 Newmarket, I'm not that into nursery races if truth be told, so I'm going to have a crack at one of the two Group 3 races above, the Rose of Lancaster Stakes. On your racecards, it's the 3.00 Haydock, a 7-runner, Group 3 flat contest for runners aged 3 and over. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

All seven raced in Class 1 company last time out in the past eight weeks and all bar King of Conquest have won over a similar trip to this one. Phantom Flight landed a 1m Novice event here on just his third outing back in May 2022, but that makes him the only previous Haydock winner, although Savvy Victory is the only other to have been here before and he was 3rd of 8 in a similar 1m Novice event back in September 2021.

King of Conquest won three on the bounce before finishing 6th in the Wolferton at Ascot and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst it's a yard debut for El Drama who has moved from Roger Varian since his last run. Al Aasy, Savvy Victory and Midnight Mile all won last time out and Al Aasy is two from three whilst Midnight Mile is three from five. Classic Causeway has been last of six and sixth of eight on his two UK starts and although a decent performer in the USA, has now lost nine on the bounce, whilst El Drama is winless in seven and this pair are probably the weakest in the field.

Midnight Mile is the sole filly in the contest, as well as being the only 3 yr old and she receives a very handy 11lbs weight allowance, which should give her a really chance of continuing her fine form she showed at York recently and she scores pretty well on Instant Expert, but not as good as former group 1 runner-up Al Aasy...

...who looks to have ideal conditions ahead of him. El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory are a combined 2 from 21 in Class 1 races and I'm not convinced any of them will turn that stat into 3 from 24 here.

The draw stats for this kind of race have suggested those further away from the rail have had the best of it...

...which isn't the best news for Phantom Flight and Al Aasy, but none of these would be out of it purely on the draw, as long as they were up with (or even set) the pace, as those races above have gone like this...

Sadly, there's very little early pace in the race and the outsider Classic Causeway is likely to be allowed a free run in the safe knowledge he's probably not good enough to see the job out...

Behind the leader, the pace scores are much of a muchness with likely favourite Al Aasy having to come past everyone if he wants to win.

Summary

Al Aasy is the 'best' horse in the race and has conditions to suit, but isn't particularly well favoured by pace or draw. That said, Classic Causeway aside, there's not much danger of him being cut adrift early on and his class should see him through. Whether 15/8 represents any value, who knows? I suspect that's about right here.

But, if you're not backing the fav, where are we going? Well, not Classic Causeway or El Drama on form, nor El Drama, Phantom Flight and Savvy Victory on Class 1 results, which leaves us with the 3/1 King of Conquest and the 6/1 Midnight Mile. The former was in great form before finishing sixth in the Wolferton, whilst the latter seemed to have plenty in hand when landing a Listed race by 2.5 lengths at York recently.

I suspect there'll be little between this pair and you could go either way, but at 6/1 with the 11lbs weight allowance, Midnight Mile is my marginal pick as main danger to Al Aasy. Some firms are paying three places here and if she drifts any, she could be a nice E/W prospect.

Racing Insights, Saturday 05/08/23

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Newmarket
  • 3.25 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 5.55 Galway
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.45 Lingfield

Once again the Goodwood contest has far too many (28!) runners for my liking, so let's head to North Yorkshire for the 3.25 Thirsk, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on soft ground...

No LTO winners on show today and only top-weight Woven made the frame last time around. He did, however, win four starts ago and only The Turpinator, maywake and bottom weight Snash come here on a run of seven (or more!) consecutive defeats.

Snash is trained by Tim Easterby who has won this race for the last two years with last year's winner, Danzan also here to defend the crown under last year's winning jockey, which is interesting on Trainer/Jockey combo day!

Snash hasn't won for over a year now (9 races) and despite a 2 from 22 record on turf (yet 2/2 on AW), he's up in class here, whilst four of the top five in the weights (Heat of the Moment, Autumn Festival, Harswell Duke and The Turpinator) all drop down a grade.

Harswell Duke looks like he's making a debut for a new yard, but that's not the case, it's just a licence name modification from his last run 105 days ago, making him the one most likely to be a bit rusty. Heat of the Moment has been off for twelve weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to five weeks or so.

Broken Spear and Snash are both former Thirsk winners over 5f and 6f respectively, whilst Snash's stablemate Danzan is the only course and distance winner, having won this race last year and also just over six weeks ago. Elsewhere, all bar Heat of the Moment, Harswell Duke and Snash have managed at least one win at this trip.

Instant Expert says that all bar Snash have had a run on soft ground already and that five of them have won on soft, whilst there are five (not all the same runners) previous Class 3 Flat winners on show. A few clicks of the mouse will also reveal a pair of former Class 2 successes for Autumn Festival and Harswell Duke...

My immediate concerns would be about Woven (class/trip), Broken Spear (going/class/trip), last year's winner Danzan (going/class/trip), Maywake (trip) and Snash (trip).  Some of this datat is a little surprising to me, as I had it in my head that Woven and Maywake were better than the above graphic might suggest.

None of the field are any more than 5lbs higher than their last winning mark, but The Turpinator and Snash are 2lbs and 11lbs lower than their last flat win. Autumn Festival looks well set on both going and distance and we know Danzan's best efforts have been over course and distance, but before I rule any of these in or out, I want to check the place stats...

...which pretty much backs up my thoughts that Woven and Maywake weren't as bad as they first looked, but without any green at all on the pace stats, it's time for me to cut Heat of the Moment, Broken Spear and Snash from the reckoning, leaving me with seven to consider as I turn my attention to the draw on this left-handed, soft ground 7f. Our Draw Analyser says that at this trip and a mile, the higher drawn horses have fared best...

...especially those drawn is stalls 7 or higher...

...which could bode well for Danzan, Razeyna and Woven in 7, 8 & 9. Those races above have been won most often by horses setting the pace and the further back a horse has run, the lower the success rate, although only hold-up horses have struggled to make the frame...

This represents a complete turn about for the highly-drawn Razeyna and Woven, as they're not usually ones to force the pace of a race, based on recent evidence...

...but it's another tick for last year's winner Danzan, despite him still being rated some 7lbs higher than last year. I'm not sure what happened to Maywake on his last outing, as his usual average pace score is around the 3.50 mark and I think he'll want to be close to the front here.

Summary

I don't think Danzan is the horse he was last year, but the data above keeps pushing him my way. I think the likes of Maywake, Woven and Razeyna are better horses than Danzan and I'm sure that at least one will beat last year's winner, but at 16/1 (only Hills were open at 4.30pm) Danzan might not be the worst E/W bet I've placed this week! I know we're making a leap of faith, but horse, trainer and jockey all go well here, so who knows?

As for a winner, I do like Maywake, Woven and Razeyna, but I fear the latter pair are going to get undone by their hold-up approach, despite having great draws, so it's Maywake at 9/2 for me, whilst it's not beyond the realms of possibilities that Autumn Festival might try to win this from the front and if I can get 10's or better, that could also be an E/W option.