Tix Picks, Friday 08/11/24

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Exeter, Fontwell, Hexham & Newcastle

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The Exeter card is far too 'novice-y' for my liking, so I'll stay with Newcastle for a second day running with six races on standard Tapeta that kick off with...

Race 1 @ 3.28, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

Walsingham is an 11-race maiden, but has made the frame in six of his last seven, Inversion was third over a mile here just over three weeks ago and Isle of Wolves' form since May reads 2221711. That's sparkling form of course, but we should remember that despite having a 50% place strike rate on the A/W, he has failed to win any of 24 attempts!

Life On The Rocks has four wins and two places from his last eight, Molinari's last three read 231 with a win over 1m4½f here last time out and Prince Achille has been a runner-up in two of his last three starts, including here over course and distance last time out.

There doesn't seem to be a huge draw bias at play here, although those drawn highest have fared slightly, but from a pace perspective, those sitting just off the pace in a prominent position have done best of all, so that's a positive for the likes of Inversion, Eeetee and Isle of Wolves...

...whilst the ones with the best relevant 2-year A/W form are...

(3) Isle of Wolves ticks all the boxes today, aside from not managing to win any of 24 on the A/W, but he should be good for a place. He does seem to always find at least one that's too good for him and that might well be the in-form (6) Molinari today. I then thought about adding Inversion as my third pick, but I think we'll get more value from taking (9) Prince Achille in case the race falls apart He ran well here over C&D ten days ago and his IE numbers are excellent.

Race 2 @ 4.03, a 6-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 6f...

Nigel Tinkler runs three here with first-time visored and bottom weight Andalseeyagraham looking the weakest of the three after finishing last of ten, 9th of 10 and 11th of 12 so far. His other pair, (1) Lima Sierra and (5) Arias Dream have much better chances, though.

The former was third of six over 5f here a week ago, making ground late on in a 1.5 length defeat and 6f might suit her better off the same mark, whilst the latter was a runner-up here over course and distance three weeks ago, beaten by just three quarters of a length.

Only two of that field have raced since, but the fourth placed horse won here over 5f a week ago and the runner in eighth has since been a one-length runner-up at Southwell over 7f, so that form is working out well for Arias Dream.

This pair look the standouts here and they'd be the ones I'd take.

Race 3 @ 4.40, a 4-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 5f...

Cash In has shown little in six starts on Turf so far and was two places and the best part of four lengths further back than the re-opposing Safanah at Catterick last month. Instant Bond was only beaten by three quarters of a length here over 6f a week ago, whilst Angel of Mathers' sole run to date saw her last home of six, beaten by over 40 lengths in the mud at Catterick three weeks ago.

On form, (2) Instant Bond is the pick of that trio, but it's a fairly low bar and the race could/should go to (4) Safanah, who is improving with each run, having finished 732 so far and ran well to finish as runner-up at Wolverhampton almost three weeks ago.

Race 4 @ 5.15, a 4-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Lincoln Legacy wears first-time blinkers after five disappointing runs since winning at Newmarket in August 2023, whereas Kristal Klear has finished 1212 in her last four with wins at Southwell and Wolverhampton over 7f and narrow defeats over the same trip at Haydock and at Southwell over a mile last time out.

Buttercross Flyer has won over course and distance, but that was back in August 2023, but he has been beaten in all 13 starts since and was last home (beaten by 15 lengths) over course and distance last time out, so it might well be that bottom weight (4) Keep Me Stable is the biggest threat to (2) Kristal Klear. Keep Me Stable has won 3 of 13 on the A/W, but she's 3 from 8 here at Newcastle and 3 from 6 over course and distance and she's only 2lbs higher than her last win from early September.

Race 5 @ 5.45, a 4-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m...

Tancredi was a runner-up on debut in a 5-runner contest over class course and distance here ten days ago, but was thirteen lengths behind the 1/6 fav My Cloud. That said, the third placed runner was a further 15 lengths behind Tancredi, so he was far from disgraced and should come on for the run. He'd definitely be my pick of the two with race experience over the mare Jolie Coeur Allen who makes her non-NH debut after making the frame in three of six over hurdles. She hasn't raced since July and I can't work out why she's here if truth be told.

Of the two debutants, both top weight Stoneacre (45,000 gns) and Sovereign Sea (50,000 gns) fetched similar money as yearlings, but the latter has since changed hands for €200,000 as 2yo and he's a half-brother to Point Nepean who won a £162k Listed race in Australia, whilst his dam was the sister of Steinbeck, a Group 3 winner over a mile, so on breeding and sale prices, I'd have him over Stoneacre.

I'll take one with experience, (3) Tancredi and a debutant, (2) Sovereign Sea here.

Race 6 @ 6.15, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Calafrio was a half-length runner-up over 6f at Southwell 18 days ago and suffered a similar fate over this course and distance a week ago, so should go well again here off just one pound higher. HK Fourteen is the form horse here if he runs, coming here on a hat-trick after wins by 4 lengths at Bath and by half a length here over 6f last night.

3yo filly Ninety Nine also won last time out, getting home by almost three lengths at Catterick at odds of 28/1. She was that price after half a dozen inadequate efforts that saw her mark drop by 14lbs and a 5lb rise makes this tougher and her record on the A/W is poor. Of the remainder, only Stallone made the frame last time out, going down by less than a length over course and distance 17 days ago. He has won over course and distance in the past and a similar run to LTO puts him in with a shout of placing again off the same mark, such is the lack of quality here!

The pace stats also suggest that a couple of those named above should be amongst the front-runners...

...whilst Instant Expert throws 5-time C&D winner Elzaal's name into the mix...

He hasn't won for 19 races stretching back to March 2023, but has dropped 16lbs in the process and showed some promising signs when beaten by two lengths here last time out coming off a 12-week break. He'd be a very unlikely winner, but if HK Fourteen doesn't line up, he could well make the frame. But I have to assume that (2) HK Fourteen will run and I'll take him along with (1) Calafrio here with the bigger priced (5) Stallone as backup and he might well be a reasonable shout as an E/W bet at odds of 18/1 or even higher with bookies paying four places.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Isle of Wolves, (6) Molinari & (9) Prince Achille

Leg 2: (1) Lima Sierra & (5) Arias Dream

Leg 3: (2) Instant Bond & (4) Safanah

Leg 4: (2) Kristal Klear & (4) Keep Me Stable

Leg 5: (2) Sovereign Sea & (3) Tancredi

Leg 6: (1) Calafrio, (2) HK Fourteen & (5) Stallone

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck (we might need it!)
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 03/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 02/12/24
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