Tix Picks, Thursday 07/11/24

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Ludlow, Newbury, Newcastle & Southwell

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is offered at Newbury, but the fields are very small, so let's head to Newcastle where the Tapeta is said to be standard for our six races that kick off with...

Race 1 @ 2.10, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

11yo veteran Visitant was a runner-up at Redcar ten days ago and whilst beaten by 6.5 lengths that day, he's the only runner in this race to have made the frame last time out and it was his third silver medal in his last five starts, including one here over course and distance on this track he generally does well at.

Violeta and Stand Free both won here over course and distance on their penultimate runs, but were fifth and eighth respectively last time out. Keen Interest is a regular placer, having been in the first three home in six of his last seven and whilst Eva Rosie is a 13-race (10 on A/W) maiden, she made the frame in her first five runs this year, but was disappointing at Wolverhampton last month.

These five would be my shortlist in what looks a pretty weak affair, but the trio I prefer are (1) Violeta, (4) Visitant & (6) Keen Interest

Race 2 @ 2.45, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Jkr Cobbler has been second and then first over course and distance in his last two outings and hosed home by more than four lengths last time out. Drakeholes and Tickets were the first two home here over track & trip 2 days ago with the former prevailing by a neck but he's now up 5lbs and Tickets has a 3lb claimer on board. Tickets was also a course and distance winner two starts ago and although both Commander Crouch and Rajawail were placed third on their last runs, it's Jkr Cobbler, Tickets & Drakeholes bringing the best form to the table, although Commander Crouch's 2-year numbers are decent enough...

Drakeholes, Concert Boy & Tickets seem to have the best of the draw in boxes 6 to 8...

...whilst tucking in behind the leader should also help Tickets today...

(1) Jkr Cobbler comes here off the best recent effort, (4) Tickets ticks plenty of boxes above and is fairly closely matched to/with (6) Drakeholes, so I'll take these three.

NOTE Tickets was withdrawn whilst I was writing the column, so I'm replacing that pick with (5) Commander Crouch

Race 3 @ 3.20, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice over 1m...

Half of this field have yet to race, but top weight One Eye Jack won at Haydock by a head on debut almost six weeks. Fort George and San Munoz both finished fourth on debut just over three weeks ago and White Crown Star improved upon his 7th of 13 opener to finish third of ten at Yarmouth seven weeks ago.

Of the debutants, Yaa Min is the most interesting, he's a Frankel colt out of Wonderful Filly and cost 370,000 Guineas as a foal. He's also a half-brother to several winners including German winner Wonderful Moon.

Yaa Min certainly has the breeding to go well here, but I'm sticking with those with previous experience of that half dozen with a prior run, I'm taking (1) One Eye Jack, (3) Fort George & (11) White Crown Star

Race 4 @ 3.55, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Chesneys Charm has won three of his last six including a 7f nursery five weeks ago and drops in class today, Sands of Indi steps up in class and has yet to win after three starts but was a runner-up in each of her first two, including going down by a neck here over 7f two months ago, whilst Pivotal Days got off the mark at the fifth time of asking, landing a 7f nursery on heavy ground at Haydock three weeks ago, but he also steps up in class here.

Space Raider makes both a handicap and an A/W debut after making the frame just once in four outings, but Shielas Well comes here on a hat-trick after 1m wins last month here at Newcastle and then at Musselburgh and her nursery record reads 22511. She's the sole course and distance winner here, but is up two classes. Bottom weight Anthropologist looks the most vulnerable here, having yet to make the frame in seven starts.

(1) Chesneys Charm has the pick of the limited A/W form available...

...and with a low draw and a fondness to just get on with things, he's my first pick here along with his in-form stablemate (5) Shielas Well, who although up in the ratings again, does get weight from most of her rivals and she might still be better than a mark of 67

Race 5 @ 4.30, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

A competitive looking contest here where top weight Muker has two silvers from his last three starts and drops down a class here. Looking For Lynda has been third in two of his last four, whilst Curious Rover won his penultimate race and both he and Looking for Lynda are down two classes.

Course and distance winner Jenever is also down a level here, but was only 11th of 14 here last time out, but True Promise was a runner-up here over 6f beaten by just three quarters of a length five weeks ago, before winning over 6f at Southwell next/last time out looking to have plenty in hand. Bottom weight Ecclesiastical also drops back in class after toiling in the Nottingham mud last time out, but he did win over 5f at Wolverhampton two starts ago.

A straight 5f generally lends itself to early/consistent speed and the field's recent pace scores...

...make life tough for Jenever and Muker. True Promise's hopes are backed up by a stack of stats...

and he's the standout on relevant wins...

...so (5) True Promise is my main hope here and I'll supplement the pick with front-runner (2) Looking For Lynda who runs off his last winning mark on what will be just his second A/W run.

Race 6 @ 5.05, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

A favourable high draw puts a tick alongside the names of Strong Johnson, Azucena, Castan and Gustav Graves, whilst a straight 5f needs early pace, which is another positive for Strong Johnson as well as Delagate The Lord and Bibendum...

Strong Johnson. however, hasn't won since scoring over course and distance exactly a year ago off 12lbs higher, but has shown signs of coming back to form, making the frame in four of his last six. Delagate The Lord has placed in each of his last two and Castan was third last time out.

Darlo Pride and Bibendum both come here after solid runner-up efforts and the former has a 2 in 3 place strike rate from 21 A/W starts. Bottom weight Azucena was a winner on her penultimate outing and she has already won over today's course and distance, as have Strong Johnson (of course), Castan, Gustav Graves and Let's Go Hugo.

Despite his lack of recent wins, I still think (1) Strong Johnson has a great chance of making the frame here. (8) Darlo Pride did so last time out and does so more often than not, whilst (5) Castan has been mentioned a few times above and might be better than his current odds would suggest.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Violeta, (4) Visitant & (6) Keen Interest

Leg 2: (1) Jkr Cobbler, (4) Tickets (5) Commander Crouch & (6) Drakeholes

Leg 3: (1) One Eye Jack, (3) Fort George & (11) White Crown Star

Leg 4: (1) Chesneys Charm & (5) Shielas Well

Leg 5: (2) Looking For Lynda & (5) True Promise

Leg 6: (1) Strong Johnson, (5) Castan & (8) Darlo Pride

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always!i
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Wednesday 04/12/24
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