Tix Picks, Thursday 19/09/24

Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Ayr, Chelmsford, Pontefract and Yarmouth...

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I've not had any A/W action for a while, so let's head to Chelmsford, where the going on the Polytrack is (as usual) declared to be standard and our placepot races are...

Leg 1 : 4.20 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2f

After the withdrawal of Laser Focus, The Bay Warrior now remains as the sole LTO winner in the field, although Silver Nightfall has made the frame in both of her last two starts, as has Platnum Prince and both of these LTO placers are down in class today, as are Speriamo, Lennys Spirit and Awtaad Prince.

The 11 yr old Stormingin might be coming towards the closing stages of his career, but has finished 124 in his last 3 runs on the A/W, includibng a win and a runner-up finish here over course and distance and his place record over the last two years is impressive...

...whilst most of the field also have some decent numbers behind them. Lenny's Spirit looks the weakest at 8lbs higher than his last win and a 0/6 record on standard going. Platinum Prince is interestingly 2lbs lower than his own last win and in stall 3, he seems well drawn according to the PRB3 scores, which also look good for Silver Nightfall and Stormingin...

That said, it's usually pace that wins the race here at Chelmsford, but this looks like it might well be a falsely run affair with little real pace early on, although Silver Nightfall might take it on, based on her last two runs..

I've struggled with race 1 these last few days and with the amateur jockeys also creating some uncertainty for me, I'm takjng three runners here; Silver Nightfall, Platinum Prince and Stormingin.

Leg 2 : 4.55 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f

Thisismydream has been in the first three home in seven of his twelve starts this year, winning twice. Hi Hoh Tonto was third last time out, whilst former course and distance winner Lion Ring was third two starts ago before winning last time out.

The Defiant won over course and distance back in March and comes back into focus here as he drops in class after three top-3 finishes in his last five outings and at 5lbs below that last win, he scores pretty well on Instant Expert...

...as do Spanish Angel and Agostino amongst others and from the above, I'm most interested in...

...whose pace scores are as follows...

...leaving me with four to pick from. I don't want to take four here if truth be told and Agostino will have to miss out on form. I hope that omission doesn't return to haunt me, but I'm taking Thisismydream, The Defiant & Lion Ring here.

Leg 3 : 5.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f

We highlighted Saint Riquier at Brighton two days ago where he failed to land his hat-trick and although he'll go off short again here, he might not be a clearcut selection today, as plenty of his rivals are running well too, especially Kinetic (2111 in her last four) and Standbackandlook (2113 in his last four) with both receiving an 8lb allowance here as 3 yr olds.

I think it has to be this trio vs the field and of these three, only Standbackandlook has raced over this trip, finishing third at Nottingham and winning twice at Wolverhampton, so Standbackandlook is definitely in for me here and from a value/last run perspective, I'll also take Kinetic over Saint Riquier.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f

The fast finishing Q Twenty Boy's win here over 5f three starts (and five weeks) ago is the only win registered by any of this field in their last seven races, but Blue Collar Lad and Don't Fight It were both runners-up in their most recent outings. Q Twenty Boy is also a former course and distance winner having won a division of this race last year.

The pace chart favours these runners...

...with two of our more 'in-form runners' featured, whilst both Blue Collar Lad and Q Twenty Boy feature well on Instant Expert.

Blue Collar Lad is also drawn in the preferred lower half of the draw, so we're taking him along with possible outsiders Q Twenty Boy and Don't Fight It for a three-pronged attack for this one.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

My initial shortlist here on form was Doves of Peace (6 top-3 finishes from 8), Cut To The Chase (placed in each of her last two), whilst fast finisher Comedian Leader, Maverick Style and Irrelevant were also in the frame on their last run. Of these Maverick Style and Cut To The Chase are both 3 yr olds, so receive a 5lbs weight allowance, which could be more than handy.

Of those mentioned above, only Maverick Style has a lower half draw, although Comedian Leader is only in stall 7 of 12. Instant Expert suggests we focus upon these runners...

...which pretty much backs up where I'm at, so I just need to stick my neck out and make a selection, as any three from those seven could easily fill the frame today. Doves of Peace and Cut To The Chase look hard to ignore from Instant Expert, but I think I'll also take a chance on Back from Dubai. He's drawn low kin stall 1 and likes to race prominently, so he could be better than his odds might suggest.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f

The second division of the above race has no LTO winners, but Twitch was a runner-up, as was Capallcliste for the second race in a row, whilst Tilsworth Max finished third. Both Twitch and Tilsworth Max were racing over course and distance when placed too.

Dashing Donkey is also of interest with a 3lb weight allowance; he has won two of his last four starts and although not ideally drawn in stall 11, looks like he might be the pace in the race...

and I think I'll take Dashing Donkey along with Twitch and Capallcliste.

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1, 7 & 8

Leg 2: horses 1, 7 & 10

Leg 3: horses 6 & 7

Leg 4: horses 3, 4 & 8

Leg 5: horses 3, 4 & 6

Leg 6: horses 2, 3 & 4

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24