Tix Picks, Friday 27/09/24

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Haydock, Newmarket, Wolverhampton & Worcester.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is at HQ once again, where the Rowley course is said to be soft for our races which kick off with...

Leg 1 : 1.50 Newmarket, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m...

Doom started the season with three placed efforts at Gr 2/3, but seems to have lost her way lately finishing last of nine and sixth of seven. This is a slight drop in class, but others arrive here in better nick. Sirona also started her season with a pair of Gr 3 placed finishes going sown by no more than a length each time, but after finishing 5th of 7 in a Gr 1 race here at Newmarket, was only 6th of 8 at Ascot last time out.

Spiritual was a Listed class runner-up at York in mid-May and then a winner at Sandown seven weeks later where she made all, but couldn't repeat the feat last time out when upped to Gr 3, finishing 4th of 9. Arisiag's best effort to date is a narrow Class 3 handicap win at Goodwood three starts ago and whilst she's probably going to be a decent handicapper, she might be out of her depth here.

Fair Point looks progressive and after finishing in the first three home in all seven career starts (2 wins), she comes here off the back of a Class 2 handicap win at Ascot where she made all on soft ground. Yes, she's up in class here, but could well be suited to the task. Rolica won a Class 2 maiden here over 7f and was then thrown straight into the 1000 Guineas over this course and distance in early-May, where she wasn't disgraced going down by three lengths as 6th of 18, but couldn't replicate that effort next/last time out when a Gr 3 5th of 9 at Sandown, a place and two lengths behind Spiritual, although she's 3lbs better off here.

Sirona, Spiritual and Fair Point have all won on soft ground, Spiritual has a Class 1 turf win, Rolica has won on this track, whilst Spiritual, Arsaig and Fair Point are all one-mile winners on the Flat, whilst place form looks like this...

Arsaig is probably the one I'm least keen on here, but you could make a case for any of the other five. However, after looking at the pace data and seeing that front-runners fare best, this...

...leads me to picking (3) Spiritual and (5) Fair Point

Leg 2 : 2.25 Newmarket, an 8-runner, 3yo+ fillies and mares Group 3 contest over 1m4f...

Mistral Star has won three of her last seven, including a 1m4f Listed success on the July course here two starts ago and this should represent a slightly easier task than her last race, when 4th of 8 in the Gr 1 Yorkshire Oaks. Time Lock actually won this race last year, but hasn't reproduced the same form in four subsequent races at Gr1 & Gr 2, but the ability to win this is certainly there.

Elsewhere Sea of Roses won a soft ground Listed race last time out, Divian Grace won a Listed race on the July course here two starts ago and the unexposed 3yo Place of Safety was second in the same race, a length and a quarter behind Divina Grace, but remains open to improvement.

Sea of Roses has won two of four on soft ground, but her 1 from 10 record at Class 1 is a worry, mind you Time Lock is also 1 from 10 at Class 1, but has won twice here at Newmarket and twice over this trip, as has Mistral Star, whilst the place stats suggest the top half of the card is the place to be...

(2) Mistral Star is the horse I'd back here if I was looking to find the winner, so she goes on the ticket and from that graphic above, I have to take last year's winner (4) Time Lock who is now down in class with (1) Divina Grace the outsider option.

Leg 3 : 3.00 Newmarket, a 7-runner, 2yo fillies Group 2 race over 7f...

AP O'Brien sends both Bubbling and Ecstatic over for this one and I think I marginally prefer the former to the latter. Bubbling was denied a clear run at Leopardstown last time out, but was still 3rd home of 9 in that Listed race, beaten by less than a length. A clearer run here could be all that it takes for her to land this, although Formal looked very impressive when winning on soft ground at Leicester last time out. She looked strong, made all and had the race wrapped up with a furlong to go. She's up in class here, of course, but looks really progressive. Duty First is also of interest, having finished a Group 3 runner-up on soft ground at Goodwood last time out and as a confirmed front-runner is of obvious interest here.

Runners (1) Bubbling, (3) Duty First and (5) Formal for me here in a bid to cover most bases!

Leg 4 : 3.35 Newmarket, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over a mile...

Ice Max has won three of his last four including a soft ground Group 2 success at Goodwood over today's trip last time out, beating the re-opposing Poker Face by a length, although Poker Face is now 5lbs better off today, so he could reverse those placings today. Lead Artist is possibly the one to beat here. He has been in the first three home in all five career starts to date, won a Group 3 race two races ago and was a Gr 2 runner-up behind the experienced Kinross at Doncaster last time out.

Of this three-runner shortlist, Instant Expert suggests that Poker Face might be the weakest of the trio under today's conditions...

...and with him being closely matched with Ice Max, I'll side with the latter and take (3) Ice Max along with (5) Lead Artist here

Leg 5 : 4.10 Newmarket, a 13-runner, Class 4, 2yo maiden over 7f...

Seven of the thirteen have yet to race and of the six who have, Seaplane sets the standard with a pair of runner-up finishes, the most recent by just a neck in a higher grade at Ascot with the re-opposing Frankini a length and a half further back on his debut and with Frankini's yard having a 43.2% place strike rate with runners making their second start, he's of interest here...

Archivist was also a runner-up last time out, beaten by a length and a half at Leicester after a slow start and if he gets going a little quicker here, should also be in the mix. Of the debutants, William Buick has chosen Secret Theory over Music of Time from the Appleby-trained Godolphin pair, so that might be a pointer here too.

And in a safety first approach to a field of unknown quantities, I'll take all four from my shortlist ie (1) Archivist, (5) Frankini, (10) Seaplane and (11) Secret Theory

Leg 6 : 4.45 Newmarket, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed race over 1m4f...

Military Academy is 2 from 2 and Lucentio has won his last three, but this Gosden-trained pair are both significantly up in class today, although they do both get weight all round from their rivals. Quietness has five wins and a runner-up finish from her last six.

Ziggy's run of eight top-three finishes (2 wins) was ended when he was 13th of 20, beaten by 7.5 lengths in the Ebor last month, whilst stamina shouldn't be an issue for Epic Poet who won the Old Borough Cup at Haydock over 1m6f last time out, staying on well and was 4th in the Ebor over the same trip on his penultimate run. Bigger fields don't faze him either.

My shortlist is completed by Aimeric, who landed a pair of Class 2 handicaps 252 days apart in September '23 and May '24 before a four-race run at Class 1 and whilst not winning any, has run his race each time as a runner-up in back to back Listed races beaten by 2.75 lengths and then by a neck. He was beaten by just over three lengths in a Group 3 race at Goodwood before going down by less than half a length to Sea of Roses (runs in the 2.25 here) in a soft ground Windsor Listed race last time out. An unlikely winner here, but definitely in contention for the frame.

Of this half dozen, only Lucentio has won on soft ground, whilst Aimeric is 4 from 8 at the trip and Quietness is 3 from 3.

Our pace/draw heatmap suggests that the winners comes from (4) Epic Poet and (9) Military Academy...

...so I'll take both of them along with a longer-priced runner in the shape of  (7) Quietness from the place heatmap...

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: horses 3 & 5

Leg 2: horses 1, 2 & 4

Leg 3: horses 1, 3 & 5

Leg 4: horses 3 & 5

Leg 5: horses 1, 5, 10 & 11

Leg 6: horses 4, 7 & 9

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24