Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24

Saturday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Haydock, Market Rasen, Newmarket and Ripon.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

I've chosen to cover the meeting at Ripon today, where the ground is going to be heavy for our six races, starting with...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 5, 2yo maiden over 6f...

Leblon Girl outran her 22/1 odds to finish second of six on debut at Nottingham last month, beaten only by a 1/8 fav, whilst I'm Next was third of nine over 5f at Beverley after a 149-day lay-off.

Dothan was well fancied at Chester on debut, but was a bit green and didn't get going for a while. He seemed to have plenty in the tank late on, though, so he could go well here, as could Medinilla who ran better than 6th of 12 might suggest. She was denied a clear run and had to be switched out inside the final furlong, but did rally to stay on having lost ground. She drops in class here and her jockey is in good nick right now...

...whilst Leblon Girl's jockey has a good record here at Chester...

...and if she's quick away again like last time out, she might not be easy to catch this time.

Safety-first approach for the opener as (2) Dothan, (3) I'm Next, (5) Leblon Girl and (8) Medinilla will all be on my bet builder.

Leg 2 : 2.10 Ripon, a 6-runner, Class 5, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Blessed Star has been knocking on the door with three successive runner-up finishes and she now drops two classes, which might just be enough to get her off the mark. Law Degree was third last time out and has already won on soft ground. Captivate has shaped like needing further than 7f in her three average runs to date, which have 'earned' her a low opening mark of 73, whilst Greek Gift has won two of her last six and has a win and two places from her last four. She was disappointing on the A/W last time out and although second of eight on soft ground at Carlisle a moth ago, would probably want it quicker here.

I can't take all four mentioned from a 6-horse field, but don't want to crash and burn before the 3yo+ handicaps, so I'll semi-reluctantly omit Greek Gift and go with (1) Blessed Star, (2) Captivate & (5) Law Degree

Leg 3 : 2.45 Ripon, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Our Absent Friends has a win and four places from his last six runs, Count D'Orsay has won two from five and has a 44% place strike rate on soft/heavy ground. High Opinion has been running consistently well for some time now, making the frame in 9 of his last 12, winning four times including here over course and distance last time out. Faro De San Juan and Another Baar both won four starts ago, but it's the first-named trio that set the standard on recent form, although Another Baar has gone well on soft/heavy ground and clearly likes it here at Ripon...

...and even if his best form is over 6f, I think he might be worth taking with the two LTO winners in the field, so that's (5) Count D'Orsay, (6) High Opinion & (7) Another Baar here

Leg 4 : 3.20 Ripon, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

Baldomero was a fairly convincing Class 2 winner on soft ground a fortnight ago, making all to win by more than two lengths with the re-opposing Tacarib Bay back in sixth, some 5.5 lengths off the pace. Tacarib Bay is no mug, though, as he entered that race off the back of two narrow runner-up defeats in this grade, which suggest he could go well here too.

Secret Guest has made the frame in four of his last five, including a good third of eighteen in the Great St Wilfrid over this course and distance last time out and based on consistency it would be foolish to write the 10yr old Dakota Gold off. His last two runs haven't been he best, but he won over 6f on soft ground at Redcar in late-May and followed that up by being second over this course and distance and Instant Expert shows his ability to make the frame under today's conditions...

...and as he also heads the pace chart...

...he's hard to ignore, so I'll be taking him with Baldomero and I just need to choose between Secret Guest and Tacarib Bay and I think on recent form, I've a slight leaning toward the former, giving me (4) Baldomero, (5) Dakota Gold & (8) Secret Guest for this one

Leg 5 : 4.00 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

My initial shortlist here was Run This Way, Music Society, White Umbrella and Hurstwood. Run This Way landed a hat-trick of wins in the summer including two over course and distance and was only narrowly beaten on heavy ground at Carlisle last time out and drops down a class here as does Music Society, who despite finding wins hard to come by of late was only beaten by a head at Ayr nine days ago, so could be in the mix again here.

White Umbrella also drops in class and has ran better in her last two races than 6th of 9 and then 6th of 11 might suggest. She was beaten by just over two lengths at Hamilton earlier this month and then by less than two lengths at Chester last time out despite being drawn 11 of 11, hardly ideal! Hurstwood doesn't drop in class, but does come here off the back of a win at Redcar and he has made the frame in three of his last six outings.

From the win stats on Instant Expert, Run This Way is the clear standout with Hurstwood probably next best...

...whilst Run This Way is also the pick on pace...

...and as I'm not convinced that Music Society will go well twice in a row (LTO was his first placed finish in 16 starts), I'm going with (2) Run This Way, (5) White Umbrella & (6) Hurstwood here.

Leg 6 : 4.40 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

This looks effectively like a two-horse race between former course and distance winner Thornaby Pearl, who was only beaten by three quarters of a length on heavy ground at Chester last time out and Hamilton runner-up Havana Pursuit, who looks the pick of the Tim Easterby-trained trio in this contest.

Both of these runners are below their last winning mark and I'd be surprised if they did provide us with a winner and a placer today. Elsewhere Stormy Pearl has a good place record under today's conditions according to Instant Expert...

...whilst LTO runner-up and botoom weight Mr Trevor has a shout based on his fondness for front-running...

...and although ignoring his early pace might bite me on the backside, I'm going with (2) Thornaby Pearl, (3) Stormy Pearl & (4) Havana Pursuit for the finale.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Dothan, (3) I'm Next, (5) Leblon Girl & (8) Medinilla

Leg 2: (1) Blessed Star, (2) Captivate & (5) Law Degree

Leg 3: (5) Count D'Orsay, (6) High Opinion & (7) Another Baar

Leg 4: (4) Baldomero, (5) Dakota Gold & (8) Secret Guest for this one

Leg 5: (2) Run This Way, (5) White Umbrella & (6) Hurstwood

Leg 6: (2) Thornaby Pearl, (3) Stormy Pearl & (4) Havana Pursuit

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Friday 27/09/24