Tix Picks, Saturday 14/09/24

I'm told there was a nice little profit from my first crack at the Tix ticket builder yesterday, so hopefully it wasn't just beginner's luck. Saturday's placepots can be played via Tix at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

That's a huge pot on offer at Donny, but I'll leave that to the big boys and head the right side of the Pennines for a trip to the Roodee, where I'm expecting tricky contests on testing heavy ground for these races...

Leg 1 : 1.35 Chester, a 7-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden stakes over 7f…

No previous winners on show, of course, but Noble Phoenix (3rd), Sir Peter Fossick (2nd) and Rock Diva (3rd) all finished in the frame and Tactical Plan has been placed in three of his last four including finishing third here in a nursery over course and distance two starts ago and was also a soft ground runner-up at Brighton in June and is one of only two runners (Itsneverjustone was 5th of 11 LTO) to have run on soft ground; none have tackled heavy!

The trainer snippets on the card show that Andrew Balding’s runners have a good record of making the frame on their second start, so that’s another tick for Noble Phoenix

…whilst on a track where front-running is often the key, I suspect the in-form Sir Peter Fossick will attempt to set the pace if his three career runs so far are anything to go by…

So, with all that in mind and a safety first approach, I'm taking runners (2) Noble Phoenix, (3) Sir Peter Fossick, (5) Tactical Plan and (7) Rock Diva.

Leg 2 : 2.05 Chester, an 8-runner, 3yo+ listed race over 1m4½f…

La Yakel was a winner three weeks ago and like Star Harbour has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings. Likely favourite Al Qareem might not have won any of six starts since landing this race last year and then a Group 3 at Ascot back in October, but he has been a runner-up in three Gr 3 races in that six-race cold spell, so I wouldn’t necessarily rule him out here based purely on wins.

His ability to make the frame is clearly the best on show here and all three runners mentioned above (plus Cristal Clere) have raced and placed on heavy ground already, but Al Qareem is the only one of the four without a heavy ground win…

La Yakel's hopes of making the frame are boosted by his yard's success with LTO winners with over 46% of them getting placed next time out...

...whilst the pace data points towards Al Qareem and Star Harbour setting the tone of the race...

There might not be much between shorties (1) Al Qareem and (6) La Yakel here on heavy ground, so I’ll have to take both for insurance, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if (7) Star Harbour ran a big race to outrun his fairly long odds.

Leg 3 : 2.40 Chester, a 13-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 2m…

It’s not a particularly good renewal of this race this year, but we do have last year’s 1-2 on show as Tashkhan attempts to see Emiyn off again and he’s actually better off at the weights this time around which will help, as will be hoped from his first-time visor. That said, Emiyn comes here in much better form having made the frame in each of his last two runs and three of his last five, making him one of the more in-form runners in a field containing just one LTO winner, Spirit Mixer.

Tashkan and Emiyn have both won on heavy ground before, a feat only matched by Goobinator from their rivals and it’s Emiyn who looks the pick of the pack from a 2yr place perspective, although Vera Verto now becomes of note too…

 

I’m also always looking out for stats pointing to a 50% or better place strike rate and for Tashkan the 30-day trainer/jockey combo have 7 wins and 4 further places from 22 runs, taking another box for this class-dropper.

So, it might be a little unimaginative, but I’m with (1) Tashkan and (4) Emiyn and wary of (8) Vera Verto. I could consider Spirit Mixer & Roberto Escobar, but then things start getting a little out of hand!

Leg 4 : 3.20 Chester, a 9-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 5f…

A really competitive looking sprint here where the top seven in a nine-runner market might be pretty closely matched on price, which does’t always help us.The two Invincible fillies (Song & Annice) both won on their last outing, but all nine runners have won at least once already, but Ardennes and Teej A have yet to win over this trip.

Teej A has, however, won here at Chester, landing a 6f maiden back in May, whilst Fuji Mountain is our sole course and distance winner, having won a Class 4 Novice event here in July and he now drops back to this grade after two Class 1 outings.

Invincible Annice is the only runner in the field to have raced on heavy ground, winning at Hamilton over 5f ten days ago and she’s got a great draw here in stall 2, but the pace in the race is likely to come from Invincible Song in the next stall or from Ardennes from out wide with Kodibeat and Fuji Mountain also handily placed. With stalls 7 & 8 having early pace, that’s likely to cut Teej A and Jm Jhingree out of things whilst the runners in stalls 2 to 4 will probably do likewise to Pont Neuf on the rail.

Of the top four on the pace chart, I’m not that keen on Kodibeat if truth be told, but I’m struggling to separate the other three and I do like Invincible Annice too, so it looks like the perms are getting bigger, as I think I need to take all of (1) Fuji Mountain, (4) Ardennes, (5) Invincible Song and (9) Invincible Annice!

Leg 5 : 4.05 Chester : a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap over 1m2½f…

Another competitive-looking affair (I think I've picked a tough meeting here!) where more than half of the field seem like they'll go off in the 3/1 to 6/1 price bracket. None of these come here on the back of a win, but both Paddy The Squire and Stressfree have been in the frame in each of their last three races (five in fact for Paddy!), so they’re the ‘form’ horses, I suppose. Again, we’ve little experience/success on heavy ground as referenced by Instant Expert…

…where City Streak, Paddy The Squire and Stressfree are the standouts and it’s the latter who is our only heavy ground winner. And if we're looking for stat pointers (50%+ place SR), then Stressfree comes to mind again...

...making it really hard for me to ignore him, so it's going to be (5) Paddy The Squire and (7) Stressfree for me here, but I might regret omitting City Streak.

Leg 6 : 4.40 Chester : a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 7½f…

And we round off with a big field handicap which again looks like being a tight contest. Paws For Thought and Transitioning both won last time out, the latter as recently as yesterday here over course and distance and both of them have won two of their last four, making them of immediate interest. Yermanthere also won last time out, albeit for just his second win in three years, whilst Phoenix Passion was 5th of 11 on the A/W at Kempton, ending a run of five straight victories and his career Flat handicap form reads 14111, including a heavy ground success at Goodwood back in May.

A quick look at the 2-year win records also show Paws For Thought, Transitioning and Phoenix Passion in a good light…

...whilst I've used the place stats to narrow the field down to...

...and with the top end of the pace chart looking like this...

...it makes sense for me to take (1) Paws For Thought, (12) Transitioning and (13) Paws For Thought in the finale, giving me an overall selection of...

Leg 1: horses 2, 3, 5 & 7!

Leg 2: horses 1, 6 & 7

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 8

Leg 4: horses 1, 4, 5 & 9!

Leg 5: horses 5 & 7

Leg 6: horses 1, 12 & 13

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good luck, everyone and I hope you have a great weekend. I'm travelling from Legian to Ubud today and I'll be back with you all on Monday morning.

Chris 

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24