Tix Picks, Monday 25/11/24

Monday's racing comes from Kempton and Ludlow. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Kempton Park...

...and I think we'll follow the money and head for Kempton's good to soft track for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.30...Only two runners appeal to me here and I'd expect this race to be all about (4) Moutarde who showed promise when a runner-up on debut at Galway before not disgracing himself in a Cheltenham Grade 2 nine days ago. He was fourth that day and this represents a huge drop in class.

Next best is probably (8) Our Lil who offered encouragement when beaten by less than two lengths on race debut at Warwick earlier this month and in a weak looking race, a similar effort should be enough to beat most of her rivals here.

Leg 2 @ 1.00...Miami Magic was second in a bumper on debut in May, beaten by just a head at Aintree and then next raced at Fakenham almost four weeks ago, showing no ill effects from a 166-day absence to win by 10 lengths on his first crack at hurdling and that run sets the benchmark here. Groovy Blue hasn't been seen since landing a Fonwell bumper in mid-May on his first run for Ben Pauling and despite his absence, it's hard to believe that he won't have been well schooled over hurdles by this yard.

Sole debutant Marengo Bay cost €58,000 as a 3yo and he's a half-brother to 2½m-2¾m winner hurdles winner Finest Evermore, who also won on the Flat over 2m. The Henderson/de Boinville axis is generally strong and this one could go well in a weak looking race. Salt Rock has shown some promise under Rules after being sold for £200k following a win on his sole PTP run, finishing third on hurdles debut just over a year ago and was only beaten by less than six lengths on his return earlier this month.

Thistle Be The One completes my shortlist on his hurdling debut. His two bumper runs saw him win here at Kempton in late-February at Class 3, before going down by just half a length at Ayr as a runner-up eight weeks later at Class 2. Califet En Vol was third that day, a further four lengths back, but he re-appeared here at Kempton a fortnight ago to win over this course and distance by 15 lengths on his hurdles debut.

(1) Miami Magic & (10) Thistle Be The One, supplemented by (6) Marengo Bay here for me.

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Gidleigh Park won on bumper debut and was 3 from 3 over hurdles at 2m1f to 2m5f before probably finding a combo of three miles plus heavy ground plus Grade 1 company a bit too much in the Albert Bartlett last time out. he did however, win a Grade 2 at HQ back in January and should go well back down in trip. Iberico Lord landed a pair of Class 1 handicap hurdles (Greatwoon & Betfair) last season, but was pulled up in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and hasn't been seen since. He's technically 6lbs well in on official ratings here too.

Leave Of Absence was progressive in bumpers finishing 113 (wins at C5 then C3 before a Grade 2 3rd of 13 at 2022's Liverpool festival). He won a Class 3 Novice race on hurdles debut in October 2022 at Ascot, but hasn't raced in over two years now. The Four Sixes completes the line-up and whilst he has been a consistent placer (6 times from 10), he doesn't seem to have the quality of the other three, although his form last winter did read 132F2 and was only beaten by a length and a half at Class 2 last time out. He probably beats Leave of Absence, who'll need te run, but I don't think he gets near my picks (1) Gidleigh Park & (2) Iberico Lord

Leg 4 @ 2.00...Craven Bay is 112 after being asked to go beyond 3m and was only denied a hat-trick by a nose at Fontwell seventeen days ago. Icare Allen's form (PP056987) this year had been uninspiring until he took advantage of a falling mark to score at Uttoxeter yesterday and it'll be intersting to see if he lines up here.

Shantou Express was a decent second at Warwick earlier this month and although winless for some time, has mainly been plying his trade at a hiher level and should still have the measure of many of these here today. The form says that Warranty comes here on a hat-trick, but both wins were on the Flat, where he has performed much better than over hurdles if truth be told and it's now over two years since a hurdle win, but he is 4lbs lower than that day.

Heaven Smart has won just one of fifteen career starts, but that win did come here at Kempton back in February, albeit in a 3m chase. He was a solid third at Fontwell on his last run and could have been much closer but for a mistake two out when pressed for the lead. He was 12 lengths behind the re-opposing runner-up Craven Bay that day and would hope to get closer if he can avoid any jumping errors, but I'm overlooking him here in favour of (1) Craven Bay and (3) Shantou Express with (2) Icare Allen my backup plan.

Icare Allen was withdrawn as I was finishing up this morning, so I'm now taking (5) Heaven Smart as the backup.

Leg 5 @ 2.35...It's hard to see beyond last year's runner-up in this race Kateira, who was also a Grade 2 runner-up at Aintree in April 2023 and won a Class 1 handicap there back in April of this year. She made a mistake 2 out on his return at the start of the month, but should come on for the run here.

Of the others, I think The Height of Fame is the weakest and I expect a 3-way battle for silver here between Pawapuri, Della Casa Lunga and Porter In The Park. Pawapuri has finished 1162 (inc a win in a Listed race) over the last year, but hasn't raced since mid-May. Della Casa Lunga looks best off at the weights and won back to back hurdles at Ludlow in February. She probably needed the run at Bangor eleven days ago after a 195-day absence, whereas Porter In The Park has been kept busy with nine runs in 2024 already, making the frame in six of her last eight in a run of form reading 31212552.

I'd probably rule out Pawapuri for the lack of a recent run and with Della Casa Lunga being rated 15lbs better than Porter In the Park but running oat the same weight, she'd be my alternate here.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...A decent, open-looking but hard to call finale has seven runners who could all technically make the frame!

The Edgar Wallace was last of 14 in the Topham at Aintree in April, but had finished 1122 in his previous four runs, all at this Class 3 level. The ground might count against Will Carver here. he has 4 wins and 2 places from 11 over obstacles, but all of his form is on good ground and it's going to be much slower/softer here.

Doctor Ken, however, is 3 from 3 on good to soft and his chasing career reads 121, all at this level. The fly in this particular ointment is a 616 day absence. Doddiethegreat is the only chase debutant, but has a good hurdling pedigree, having won a Class 2 handicap at Ascot this time last year before going on to be a Class 3 runner-up at Cheltenham in December and then a solid 4th of 21 in the Class 1 Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. If transferring that ability to the larger obstacles, he's definitely in the mix for a top trainer/jockey combo.

Bourbali won at this meeting last year and made all to win here again last time out. He's only up 4lbs for that win and if handling the step up in trip, has to be in the mix once more. Thelasthighking was second in this race last year and now runs off a mark 8lbs lower than that 3 length defeat. He has made the frame in 5 of his 9 starts over fences, but has been well beaten in all four starts since this race last year.

And finally, Es Perfecto, who is better than a last of eight runners, 47 lengths adrift LTO would suggest. He's normally there or thereabouts, as a prior run of form reading 24133233 would attest, but he just didn't fire at Sandown back in March. Well rested since, we'll hopefully see the real reliable Es Perfecto, but I do prefer the likes of (5) Bourbali and (4) Doddiethegreat, whilst I'm going to take a chance/value punt on (3) Doctor Ken despite a long absence. He was third at Aintree in October 2021 after 214 days off and then won a Class 3 race there in November 2022 after 220 days off, so there's a possibility here; if only this was Aintree?

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (4) Moutarde & (8) Our Lil

Leg 2: (1) Miami Magic, (10) Thistle Be The One & (6) Marengo Bay

Leg 3: (1) Gidleigh Park & (2) Iberico Lord

Leg 4: (1) Craven Bay, (3) Shantou Express & (2) Icare Allen (5) Heaven Smart

Leg 5: (1) Kateira & (3) Della Casa Lunga

Leg 6: (5) Bourbali, (4) Doddiethegreat & (3) Doctor Ken

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24