Tix Picks, Tuesday 26/11/24

Tuesday's racing comes from Sedgefield, Southwell and Tramore. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Sedgefield...

...and as I want to avoid the maiden bumper in the last at Sedgefield, I'm going to tackle the first six races on the Southwell card, where the going is said to be good to soft.

Leg 1 @ 12.35...Smurfette has a win and two places from her last three starts and also looked like she'd more running left in her when third over 2m6f last time out. Northern Reel's yard, jockey and trainer/jockey combo have all made the frame in more than half of their races over the last fortnight...

...and the horse herself was a ready 13 lengths winner at Leicester last week. One other to consider would be Eightytwo Team who has a win and a place from two efforts over course and distance and has been in consistently decent nick for some time.

That said, I don't think she's at the level of the other two, so I'll stick with (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel here.

Leg 2 @ 1.05...Great Samourai was disappointing last time out, but had finished 242221 in his previous six starts, including a pair of silvers here at Southwell and a win at Huntingdon and could well be involved again up in trip. Imperial Bede drops in class after finishing third at Wetherby at the start of the month and is now 6lbs lower than when he won by 13 lengths over C&D back in February.

Duo D'Enfer is getting on a bit now at 11 and although his last three efforts haven't been great, he did finish third this time last year at the start of a run of results reading 3131, whereas Jasmin De Grugy is the clear form horse in this pack, having won each of his last three starts over hurdles. he's had six months rest ahead of his chasing debut and if transferring his hurdles form to the larger obstacles would be the one to beat here.

Onewayortother has finished third in both starts over fences so far over a trip of 2m½f that has seemed too sharp for him, so he could improve for the extra half mile or so here, whilst You Say Nothing is dangerously weighted off a mark of 96, some 12lbs lower than his last winning mark from may 2023, but that does also reflect his poor recent form.

This half-dozen form my shortlist from which my 1-2-3 would be (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and (9) Onewayortother

Imperial Bede was withdrawn whilst I was still compiling the column, so I'll take (2) Great Samourai as the replacement

Leg 3 @ 1.40...Lexie's Moon won nicely at Stratford just over five weeks ago for a second win in four, both were on testing ground so stamina shouldn't be an issue as she steps up in trip. Broughshane backed up a comfortable win at Fontwell in October by finishing as runner-up over 3m at Ffos Las just over a fortnight ago when bumping into one winning for the fourth time in eight starts.

Asian Star has just five races under her belt with finishes of 312 over hurdles with her win coming here over 2m. An opening mark of 106 isn't a disaster, but she might struggle with the step up in trip and my shortlist is completed by the one I'd expect to win : Solar System. He's 31531 in handicap hurdles and is unpenalised for winning at Warwick six days ago.

I'm probably too well aligned with the market here, but it has to be (5) Solar System and (2) Broughshane for me with (3) Asian Star as Plan B.

Leg 4 @ 2.10...Achille Des Rocs made the frame in 3 of 5 PTP races and wasn't disgraced when a 13 lengths 4th of 12 at Market Rasen 12 days ago. Probably wants further, though. Kap de Triomphe's two UK efforts haven't really caught the eye, but he did win on bumper debut at Naas in February and this isn't the toughest race he'll ever have.

King Uklanda's sole run to date saw him land a bumper at Huntingdon back in May, after which he was sold for £17k, whilst Lawrenny has had three start in bumpers, progressing in each and he followed up a runner-up finish at Sedgefield in January by winning at Newcastle last time out, although that was nearly nine months ago.

The last one that interests me is Sergeant Fury who was beaten by less than two lengths in a Class 2 bumper at Wincanton earlier this month, having won on his sole PTP appearance.

This is one of those races where you could take six darts at nine runners and still miss the frame, but I'd go with (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs as my trio against the field, although I wouldn't be massively surprised if Kap de Triomphe ran better than a 28/1 (or bigger) ticket might suggest.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...This looks a two-way fight between (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola. The former was definitely going the right way last season, finishing third in back to back races in November/December, but a fall at Sandown in January seemed to upset her rhythm and she could only manage sixth in two subsequent runs. She's better than that and you can be sure that Team Skelton will have schooled her well in her 220-day break.

Rockola, however, was in action just five weeks ago, finishing fourth here at Southwell after an absence of more than six month. She should kick on for that run and had been a runner-up on her last run of the previous season, from which the third-placed horse is 2 from 2.. She looks reasonably treated off an opening mark of 91 and like Elle Est Beau above, she takes a drop in class here.

(1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola look the standouts for me and with An Cailin Ciuin being withdrawn whilst I was typing, I'll just take this pair.

Leg 6 @ 3.10...The withdrawal of likely favourite Early Morning Dew could open the door for top-weight Neigh Botha, who has actually been plying his trade in Class 4 chases of late finishing 13P343 in that sphere since his last effort over hurdles. That chase win was over today's track and trip and his mark is 3lbs lower than his last chase outing and the drop in class should help.

Gainsbourg returns to hurdling for his handicap debut at this code, having been racing on the Flat/AW for over a year. he has a win and a runner-up finish on the Flat from his last five outings, so should be sharp between the flights, suggesting a clear round puts in the mix.

The others that appeal to me are Window Of Time and Runaway Train with the former the pick of the two. Handicap debutant Window of Time has only raced seven times (1 x AW, 2 x Flat & 4 x hrds), but has finished 232 in her last three efforts over hurdles. Rated joint third best in the field says she's in with a shout here, but as the sole 3yo in the race is afforded a huge 16lbs weight allowance here, effectively making her bottom weight and that could be decisive here.

Runaway Train's bare form isn't much to write home about, but I'm scratching around for a back-up pick and he has shown some promise in the past. His yard are in good nick (24 from 80 = 30% SR over the last month) and have a decent record at this venue...

His jockey has 15 wins and 16 places from his 68 rides over the last year, which isn't bad for a 5lb claimer whose allowance further lowers what was a very fair-looking opening mark of 89. This might well be the poorest race this horse has faced so far and could well be the kickstart he needs, so (5) Runaway Train becomes my backup to (1) Neigh Botha and (14) Window Of Time

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (2) Smurfette and (4) Northern Reel

Leg 2: (8) Jasmin De Grugy, (3) Imperial Bede and ,  (9) Onewayortother and (2) Great Samourai

Leg 3: (5) Solar System, (2) Broughshane and (3) Asian Star

Leg 4: (8) Sergeant Fury, (6) Lawrenny and (1) Achille Des Rocs

Leg 5: (1) Elle Est Beau and (5) Rockola

Leg 6: (1) Neigh Botha, (14) Window Of Time and (5) Runaway Train

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

As ever, the very best of luck!
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24