Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24

Monday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Hamilton, Windsor & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

So let's head for Wolverhampton for a crack at six races on standard tapeta...

Leg 1 : 4.15 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 2yo nursery over 5f...

Startling was a revelation in a first time hood last time out, winning here over course and distance nine days ago and needless to say the hood is in place once again. Deal Maker is the only other runner in the field to have won a race, as she scored over 5f at Southwell on debut. Pure Liberty was third behind Startling last time, beaten by a length and three quarters and should get closer now she's 5lbs better off. Top weight Dubai Magic drops two classes here for a handicap debut and also takes a drop in trip. Her yard does well here at Wolverhampton and jockey Clifford Lee has had a great year riding for this stable...

and I think I'll take (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty here.

Leg 2 : 4.50 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ novice stakes over 5f...

My initial shortlist here was All Ways Glamorous, Glowchester, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr. All Ways Glamorous has been knocking on the door of late, finishing as runner-up in each of his last three with ever decreasing margins of defeat and today could well be the day. Glowchester has also got closer to winning in each of last three runs, finishing 432 and also only went down by a neck last time out, so these two make the ticket.

Of the other three runners to have raced so far, Maid In Chelsea and Mockirr have shown more than Gigastar. Of those two, the former has been off the track for almost four months, whilst Mockirr's yard have a good record at Wolverhampton and also do well with runners on their second outing...

...so I'm going with (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester here.

Leg 3 : 5.25 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...

The 3yo filly Shamardia has been a winner and a runner-up (half a length down) in her last two starts and she's clearly the horse in form here, although course winner Coconut Bay scored at Catterick three starts ago too. Araifjan, Coast and Neptune Legend have all won over course and distance, but haven't really produced anything in their last three or four outings and to be honest, only four of the field have shown any consistency at all over the last couple of years on the A/W...

(3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay are the more obvious picks for me here and I think I'll also go with course and distance winner (5) Araifjan on his second run after a wind op.

Leg 4 : 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m½f...

Not the best race you'll ever see, but it certainly looks open/competitive with cases to be made for most of the field. War Chant, Hartswood and Cavalry Call all won last time out, which boosts their claims. Local Bay has won four of his last seven, Winterfair has been placed third in four of his last six whilst bottom weight Between Me And U has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.

From a win perspective, Instant Expert is keenest on the three drawn lowest of all...

...whilst the pace in the race looks like coming from...

I definitely want to take Cavalry Call and War Chant here, leaving me with a choice between Winterfair and Between Me And U, I suppose. The latter is in better form, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace, so in a tricky one to assess, I'm with (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U.

Leg 5 : 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Nights Over Egypt won last time out and Kristal Klear won two starts ago, before stepping up in class and going down by just a head as a runner-up at Haydock earlier this month. She's back down in class and the winner from Haydock has since won again and have the horses placed fourth and fifth, so I'd expect Kristal Klear to go well here today. LTO winner Nights Over Egypt is one of only two course winners in the field (Top Button is the other, but looks hindered by being drawn 12 of 12).

Higher drawn runners have fared worse here over this track and trip when it comes to making the frame, so lower drawn horses with early pace have been the ones to look at, which suggests this trio might be in with a shout...

...further cementing the claims of Kristal Klear. I do still want to take Nights Over Egypt, as I think these two are far better than the rest who seem much of a muchness if truth be told. Dynamite Katie has been a runner-up in two of her last four, has the lowest draw possible, gets weight all round and will be up with the pace. She'd be a long shot to win, I'd reckon but I'm taking (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie here.

Leg 6 : 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Swinging Eddie won at Catterick last time out but hasn't raced for almost ten weeks. That said, none of the others even made the frame and Swinging Eddie has 3 win and 2 further places from nine efforts over course/distance, making him one to watch. Lady Wingalong has also had a bit of a break (7 weeks), but with five placed finishes from her last six outings does arrive here in decent nick, as does Awaysmont with two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last six. Carvalhal won four races ago and Gilt Edge has two wins and two places from her seven runs this year.

Instant Expert suggests that American Rose could be well suited by conditions here too and she did win on her last A/W start...

...but the draw seems to be against her and Gilt Edge...

...whilst the pace stats back up Swinging Eddie's claims and also suggest that Carvalhal might be difficult to rein in...

I've got to take (1) Swinging Eddie and (3) Lady Wingalong here based on form, but those pace stats also make (8) Carvalhal a live prospect from a middling draw.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Dubai Magic, (4) Startling & (9) Pure Liberty

Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (2) Mockirr & (5) Glowchester

Leg 3: (3) Shamardia and (4) Coconut Bay & (5) Araifjan

Leg 4: (1) War Chant, (8) Cavalry Call & (12) Between Me And U

Leg 5: (1) Nights Over Egypt, (2) Kristal Klear & (12) Dynamite Katie

Leg 6: (1) Swinging Eddie, (3) Lady Wingalong & (8) Carvalhal

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as ever!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
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