Tix Picks, Saturday 23/11/24

Saturday's racing comes from Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon, Newcastle, Punchestown and Wolverhampton. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

What is Tix?

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £75,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot and a whopping £100k at Haydock Park...

And as I'd rather be hung for a sheep than a lamb, let's take a tilt at the big pot at Haydock and the following races on good to soft/soft ground...

Leg 1 @ 12.08, a 7 6-runner, Grade 2, 4yo+ Novice Hurdle over 1m7½f...Bold Light has made the frame on all three starts so far and was a 7 length winner at Kelso last timeout, whilst Country Mile comes here on a hat-trick having won both starts to date including on hurdle debut recently. Roadlesstravelled is two from two over hurdles so far and was a five length winner at Wetherby three weeks ago, whilst 9 lengths was the margin of Saracen Beau's victory at Ayr on the same day.

Rocheval hasn't been seen for almost nine months, but comes here boasting a 100% record from three starts, including two wins over hurdles and the mare Lily du Berlais also runs for the first time this season, having been rested for 199 days after wins at Kelso and Ayr in the spring.

You could make a case for all six above, but my 1-2-3 would be Roadlesstravelled, Bold Light and Lily du Berlais with Rocheval best of the rest.

Leg 2 @ 12.40, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f...The Skeltons won this race last year with Real Stone and look set to repeat the feat with Home Free who is 2 from 2 since a wind op during a five month break this summer. He won very easily by 11 lengths at Ayr four weeks ago and a 10lb rise might not be enough to stop him. Netywell was denied a four-timer when fourth of ten at Carlisle back in April having jumped up two classes and could do better here now back down a grade.

The 8yo Galunggung is interesting with just four runs to his name. he finished 211 over hurdles and then scored on his chase debut at Perth in May. Like many of this field he has been well rested and he has yet to run a bad race. General Medrano needs to turn the clock back to October/November '23 when he finished 112 in consecutive races, but that hoisted his mark from 118 to 135 and he has toiled somewhat since. That said, he's now running off 129, which is 5lbs lower than his runner-up finish at Plumpton this time last year.

My shortlist here consists of the four named above and I think the one to miss out would probably be General Medrano.

Leg 3 @ 1.15, a 15-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m3f...The two I like best here are Beat The Bat and Kamsinas. The former hasn't been seen for almost a year since unluckily bumping into the very useful Dysart Enos (a Class 1 placer last week) at Cheltenham in a three length defeat and with nothing of her ability here, beat The Bat could get back to winning ways if seeing off Kamsinas who won a Grade 2 here at this meeting last year and also won at Kempton in march again at Aintree four weeks ago for a fifth win in his last ten starts.

Top-weight Steel Ally has made the frame in five of his six starts over hurdles and since winning at Wincanton in February has only been beaten by a neck, 1.5 lengths and 1 length in three outings. Josh The Boss return from a six month break to win a 17-runner handicap at Chepstow last month in a hot race that has produced 7 wins and 4 places from 17 runs since. The runner-up Doyen Quest (runs in the 2.30 today) and the third placed horse Take No Chances both won well recently, so the form is working out well.

Punta Del Este is the last on my shortlist and was only beaten by a head on his return from over six months off the track when third of nine at Carlisle three weeks ago, he seemed a bit stretched late on, so a slight drop in trip might help here. That said, he's up a pound and doesn't quite look as strong as the other four I've mentioned and I'm going to take all four of them here.

Leg 4 @ 1.50, a 6-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Graduation Chase over 2m5½f...Pretty much in line with the early market, my 1-2-3 here would be Iroko, Tahmuras and Trelawne with Deafening Silence the one most likely to upset my plans.

Iroko's last outing saw him finish second in the Grade 1 Mildmay at Aintree, having been a creditable fifth in the Turners Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival four weeks earlier and running anything like those kind of levels should be enough here.

Tahmuras has finished 3122 over fences so far in admittedly small fields, but was a winner at both Listed Class and Grade 1 over hurdles. He was only beaten by three quarters of a length in the Grade 2 Coral Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton last time out and it's worth noting that his yard (Paul Nicholls) have won this race three times in the last four years and four of all seven times this race has been held.

Trelawne fell at the second fence in this year's Ultima at Cheltenham and although he failed to win any of his three runs before that one, he wasn't beaten by far (4L, 2L & 2L), but did win on chase debut this time last year and landed both his last two hurdles races. He hasn't raced for 256 days but does go well fresh, having won at Carlisle last November and at Ffos Las the previous November after breaks of 259 and 232 days.

Deafening Silence makes a chase debut today, but after a Class 3 and a Grade 2 win over hurdles last winter, it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him go well here and I did consider taking him over Trelawne, but we've had a lot of rain here in the North West overnight and I expect the ground to be soft come race time, which is ideal for Trelawne.

Leg 5 @ 2.30, a 16 15-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m½f...Last week's impressive win for Doyen Quest pushed him to my no. 1 pick here, but he was withdrawn overnight, opening the doors for several others in what looks a fairly open race.

Kerryhill won a PTP, won at Class 4 on his racecourse debut a year ago and finished fourth and first in two subsequent Grade 2 hurdles. Gwennie May Boy has won four of his last five over hurdles, including a Class 1 success at Aintree when last seen, but an 11lb rise makes this tough.

Zain Nights has run consistently well to make the frame in 7 of his 8 starts (34141113) over the last year and has had the benefit of a recent run at Cheltenham. He is up in class, but rarely runs a bad race and will probably be a decent price for eachway backers and it's a similar story with The Imposter, who over the last two years has finished 31112111111 over hurdles, but all at Classes 3 to 5. He'll run his race, but the effects of ther gulf in class and a near one year absence are against him.

Ottizini, however, won by nine lengths on her seasonal reappearance at Ayr three weeks ago and although up in class, looked like being in good nick. Catch Him Derry is 3 from 4 in handicap company and 331211 over hurdles full stop. Has won on good to soft, soft and heavy, so he won't mind Haydock's wet track today and the trip is no issue either. He looked like being the yard's second string here, but Doyen Quest doesn't run, so this is the Skelton's only chance in the race.

My shortlist is completed by One Big Bang, whose UK record (and his last three outings) reads 112 having gone down by less than two lengths on heavy ground just over three weeks ago after a 207 day absence. He had previously won on both soft and heavy, including a course and distance win here in March.

I'd be looking at One Big Bang and Catch Him Derry as most likely to succeed here backed up by Kerryhill, Gwennie May Boy and Zain Nights here.

Leg 6 @ 3.05, a 9-runner, Grade 1, 5yo+ Chase over 3m1½f...Ahoy Senor was a Grade 1 runner-up at Aintree in April over today's trip beaten by just half a length and returned to Aintree 199 days later last month to finish a creditable Grade 2 third over an inadequate 2m4f and should relish the step back up in trip. Grey Dawning won at both Grade 1 and Grade 2 last season and had probably already done enough last term when third at Aintree in April. Fully refreshed here, stands every chance of getting involved yet again.

Hewick was beaten by half a length behind Envoi Allen in a Grade 1 earlier this month and won the King George at Kempton last year before going on to finish third in the Punchestown Gold Cup at the end of the season. He's proven at this level and rarely runs a bad race over fences. Royale Pagaille completes my shortlist here based on the fact that he won this race last year and his Haydock record reads 11211. Despite this, his jumping isn't the best if truth be told and he has fallen in two of his last three starts and this is why he'd be the one I'd discard from the four runners highlighted. His soft ground form might come back to bite me on the backside, but I need to draw a line somewhere.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) Roadlesstravelled, (1) Bold Light & (6) Lily du Berlais

Leg 2: (2) Home Free, (4) Netywell & (6) Galunggung

Leg 3: (5) Beat the Bat, (2) Kamsinas, (1) Steel Ally & (6) Josh The Boss

Leg 4: (2) Iroko, (3) Tahmuras & (4) Trelawne

Leg 5: (15) One Big Bang, (14) Catch Him Derry, (3) Kerryhill, (4) Gwennie May Boy and (7) Zain Nights

Leg 6: (6) Hewick, (5) Grey Dawning & (1) Ahoy Senor

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

As ever, the very best of luck and I hope you all have a great weekend.
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24