Tix Picks, Friday 22/11/24

Friday's UK action is scheduled for Ascot, Catterick, Chepstow & Newcastle. If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Ascot...

The fields at Ascot aren't the biggest, but that's where the biggest pot is, so let's pay a visit for six races starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.20...When I set my template out last night for today's column, we had five runners for this race, we've now got just three and it would be easy for me to just tell you to omit Oak Grove, select the other two and move to race 2, but the reason I prefer the other pair is because...

First Confession won his sole PTP race and then changed hands for £140,000 prior to a decent third place at Cheltenham on hurdling debut four weeks ago behind a pair of subsequent winners including Potters Charm who won at grade 2 next time out.

As for Milan Tino, he was third in a couple of Grade 2 events at Cheltenham last season and has made the frame at both Listed and Grade 2 class at Auteuil. He was rated as best in the field by the market in this year's Fred Winter although the heavy ground took its toll and he was only 6th home of the 17 runners and this looks far easier on paper.

Leg 2 @ 12.55...Again, we've lost a runner (the one I thought would win!) overnight, leaving us with just four to choose from. Rare Edition won his sole bumper and had four wins and a pace from ten over hurdles before scoring on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter seven weeks ago and has finished second of four in a Listed hurdle over further than today's trip. Riskintheground has more experience over fences, having won four of twelve so far. He's down in trip and class today, so should put up more of a fight than when finishing well off the pace in the Class 1 Badger Beer handicap two weeks ago.

Bad is a nine-race maiden, but was only beaten by three lengths on his chase debut over course and distance three weeks ago. He was outpaced late on that day by the winner Bhaloo who looked a decent sort and not having raced for over six months won't have helped. He should come on for the run and a similar effort to that last one could be enough here.

Bucksy Des Epeires might well need the run after 234 days off the track since going down by a neck in a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Ludlow. He's up in class here and didn't seem to be in the best of form at a higher grade before that run having fallen at Lingfield and then coming home last of nine here over today's trip. He might well be getting weight all round, but I think his chasing debut might be as tough one. I'm omitting him from my ticket builder and taking the other three in a cautious approach!

Leg 3 @ 1.30...Royal Infantry is an overnight non-runner, so we're looking at six starters for this one with top-weight Celtic Dino the one I'd expect to lead them home. He finished 131 in bumpers (the defeat being in a Listed race) before romping home by fourteen lengths on his hurdles debut at Wincanton five weeks ago; a repeat of that run should be more than enough. Next best (for me anyway) would be Joyeuse if showing no ill effects from a near 11-month absence since winning on debut at Taunton.

Her yard (Nicky Henderson) has won this race in each of the last three years with last year's victor coming off the back of a two-year absence, so Joyeuse's break might not be an issue.

As for the other four, I've little to separate Nothing To Sea and Wade Out if truth be told. The latter is 2 from 2 so far (1 x NHF & 1 x Hrd), whilst the former won a heavy ground hurdle at Compiegne a month ago. he was useful on the flat, staying 2m and should have good ground speed between the hurdles. Both he and Wade Out are more than capable of making the frame here, but it's Nothing To Sea joining my other two picks on the ticket builder, as he'll offer more value in the market.

Leg 4 @ 2.05...Corrigeen Rock has finished 11421 in his last five over fences and landed a £42k race at this trip/grade last time out, but hasn't raced for ten months and could well need the run. Terresita won a couple of chases last season and was an unlucky faller when leading 2 out in a Sandown handicap that has worked out well from a form perspective. She returned from a 190-day absence to land a Listed race at Carlisle earlier this month and for me, she looks the one to beat.

Persian Time won over 2m1f here last December and then again over 2m2f at Kempton in March, but was only 5th of 6 back there last time out. It was, in fairness, his first run in six months so he should come on for the run. Nocte Volatus comes here on a hat-trick and after wins at both Uttoxeter and Chepstow (after six months off) and although this represents a step up in class, he did finish as a runner-up at this grade last season.

Gemirande completes my five-runner shortlist and there's no doubting him on past ability, having won at Classes 2 & 4 in the 22/23 season before Class 1 silver at Newbury in March 2023 was followed by a 3rd of 12 in a Cheltenham Class 1 handicap the following month. Sadly, his record this tar hasn't been anywhere near that, beaten by 21, 17 and 24 lengths in the spring and although this is a drop in class, he could well need the run after seven months off.

Of the five named above, both Gemirande and Corrigeen Rock are coming off lengthy breaks, so I'll take the other three ie (2) Terresita, (3) Persian Time & (6) Nocte Volatus.

Leg 5 @ 2.40...We lost Perseus Way overnight, so nine are set to go to post headed in the weights by Aurigny Mill and Gin Coco. The former had three wins and two places from ten over hurdles for Vic Dartnall before a n easy 10 length win at Newbury a fortnight ago on his yard debut for Robert Walford despite a six month absence from the track. That kind of effort outs him right in the mix here, even if he is up 7lbs for that run.

As for Gin Coco, he won this race last year off just 2lbs lower than today but did struggle in to defeats of 27, 15 and 27 lengths in his three subsequent runs last season. He did, however, return from a five-month break to finish second of seven at Chepstow last month, beaten by just a neck following wind surgery, so could be in with a shout again here.

Williethebuilder is two from seven over hurdles and has looked a different proposition so far this season. he was only denied by a short head over 2m at Wetherby in mid-October coming off a 235 day absence, but went one better to win by half a length over that same course and distance next/last time out although he had been put up 2lbs. He'll find this tougher, though up in class and another 5lbs, so this might not be the one for him.

Break My Soul has yet to fail to make the frame in her six starts and after wins at both Chepstow and Fontwell in the spring, she was only caught on the line in a Class 2 handicap over today's course and distance three weeks ago, coming off a 170-day absence. Her jockey and trainer teamed up to win this race in 2020 and 2021 and there's a very good chance they make it three from five today with this progressive mare.

Bottom-weight Mirabad completes my shortlist, he's lightly raced and his career record reads 41221 and he has had the benefit of a recent run or two, finishing second at Exter last month before an 18 lengths success at Hereford 18 days ago. This is, of course, tougher, up in class and weight, but he was no mug on the Flat in France, so should have some good ground speed between flights and does get weight all round.

Plenty with chances here, but I'm taking my chances with (1) Aurigny Mill, (7) Break My Soul & (10) Mirabad.

Leg 6 @ 3.15...This looks like a three-horse shootout between (1) Regatta de Blanc, (3) Regarde and (9) Law Of Supply. Regatta be Blanc was 3rd of 16 at Chepstow last time out despite going off as a 4/6 favourite. In her defence, she had been off the track for 161 days, it was her hurdling debut and she probably found 2m3½f a bit on the sharp side as her previous three races were Hunter Chases at 2mf to 3m1½f where she finished 121. Her last crack at fences saw her make all to win by 94 lengths at Cheltenham in May.

Regarde is three from six over fences and was relatively comfortable when scoring by four lengths at Kempton (3m½f) a month ago some seven months after finishing as runner-up at Huntingdon in mid-March. He's up 6lbs here, but was cosy last time out and his yard are in good form.

The above pair should be joined in the frame by Law Of Supply who won on his chase debut at Worcester just over five weeks ago. This was his first outing in seven months and he was much better than a 3.5 length margin of victory might suggest; he was well clear on the run-in and and was sensibly eased right down by jockey Tom Bellamy once he knew the race was won.

You could make a case for the likes of Bertie Wooster (a winner at Taunton in April) or Morfee (placed on six of nine over fences), but I do suspect that my three-horse shortlist should be a cut above the rest of the field here.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) First Confession & (4) Milan Tino

Leg 2: (2) Rare Edition, (3) Riskintheground & (4) Bad

Leg 3: (1) Celtic Dino, (2) Nothing To Sea & (6) Joyeuse

Leg 4: (2) Terresita, (3) Persian Time & (6) Nocte Volatus

Leg 5: (1) Aurigny Mill, (7) Break My Soul & (10) Mirabad

Leg 6: (1) Regatta de Blanc, (3) Regarde & (9) Law Of Supply

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck! (we might need it)
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
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• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
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