Tix Picks, 11th September 2024

Good Morning, everyone! As promised/threatened, I'm back in the Tix hot seat for a crack at Wednesday's racing for you.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And whilst the biggest pots are at Carlisle, there are some big/tricky fields so as I'm in my infancy with Tix Picks, I'm going to focus on the A/W card at Lingfield for today...

Leg 1 : 2.05 Lingfield

In card order, this looks like a three-horse contest between Honour Your Dreams, Master Dandy and Savannah Smiles who all drop in class today. Master Dandy was a runner-up LTO and the other two both come here off the back of wins. All three have won over 6f already and Savannah Smiles is a course and distance winner. Honour Your Dream is trained by Mick Appleby whose horses are in great form (8/32 in the last fortnight), but it’s Savannah Smiles who catches the eye on Instant Expert…

The pace/draw heat map for this race suggests the further forwrd a horse tuns, the greater the chance of making the frame...

...and with the field's last four average pace scores looking like this...

...Honour Your Dreams and Savannah Smiles look more likely than Master Dandy, so I'm siding with this pair.

Leg 2 : 2.35 Lingfield

Four runners, one debutant. Of the three with the benefit of a run Hello Miss Lady’s runner-up finish at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago is the best on offer. She’s the clear 2/5 favourite and it’s her or the highway here, I think!

Leg 3 : 3.05 Lingfield

A 9-runner nursery with two LTO winners in the shape of Matharu and Lazieelunch, whilst Thiscouldbefun was placed third; Inconspicuous has also already won a race and I’d probably want to focus on these four based on results, although Enchanted Eye has two runner-up finishes from his last three runs and now wears cheekpieces for the first time, which will hopefully help his cause.

Lazieelunch actually beat Matharu last time out with the latter then going on to win, but he’s a pound worse off this time, so they should be pretty closely matched. All five of the shortlist seem to be suited by the pace/draw heat map here...

Enchanted Eye seemingly benefiting the most on this evidence and I think I'll take him based on his profile and take one of either Lazieelunch and Matharu to go with him. When I looked back at the card, I saw this...

...so I'll take Lazieelunch and Enchanted Eye here.

Leg 4 : 3.40 Lingfield

Whoopee! A 2yo maiden fillies race! Bit of a cop out here, but Darn Hot Mystery, Sofia The First, Lillys Bet and Sixteen One all made the frame LTO and are the only past placers in the race. Sixteen One looks the one to beat here, as she only went down by a head on debut, almost five lengths clear of the third placed horse, but her price will reflect the here. To be honest, I’d probably put all four down but if restricting myself to two picks, Lilly’s Bet looks consistent.

Leg 5 : 4.15 Lingfield

More familiar territory here with an 8-runner handicap for 3 yr olds, most of whom come here in mediocre (or worse!) form, except Time Tested, whose last three results read 121 including a course and distance win here last time out. He’s going to go off mightily short here today and it’s him or bust for me on this one, based purely on form alone.

Leg 6 : 4.50 Lingfield

And we round off with another 3yo handicap, this time it's a 6-runner, Class 5 contest over 7f, where the filly Whoop Whoop is the only LTO winner.

Faster Bee and Berry Clever are still maidens after 13 & 11 attempts respectively, so I’m setting them aside here. Of the other four runners Sonmarg and Cherry Hill have made the frame five time and four times from their twelve starts.

A quick look at the pace/draw heat map suggests Cherry Hill is the worst positioned here of the four I'm still considering...

, so I'll set him aside too, leaving me with LTO winner Whoop Whoop, Sonmarg who has the highest place strike rate and front-runner Union Island. I'm definitely taking Whoop Whoop and with Union Island stepping up in class after two poor efforts, Sonmarg is the second pick here.

Apologies for the post being later than I/you would have wanted. I've been beset by all manner of tech issues as I grapple with Indonesian web restrictions, but I'll aim to be earlier tomorrow!

Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Thursday 03/10/24
• Tix Picks, Wednesday 02/10/24
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 01/10/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/09/24
• Tix Picks, Saturday 28/09/24