Tix Picks, Wednesday 18/12/24

Wednesday's racing comes from Dundalk, Kempton, Lingfield, Ludlow & Newbury.
If you're new to Tix Picks, it's worth taking a moment to review the links in the next section; if you've been before, let's crack on...

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a £50,000 placepot guarantee at Newbury...

The biggest guaranteed pot is at Newbury, where the ground is expected to be good to soft, so let's head there for six races, starting with...

Leg 1 @ 12.05...This really looks like Liam Swagger's race to win/lose. He tuned up for hurdling with seven Flat/AW runs over the summer, making the frame on five occasions before winning a Class 2 hurdle first up at Market Rasen in late September and has since landed a Listed race at Wetherby.

If there's going to be a challenge, it will probably come from Believitanducan on hurdle debut. He finished 322 over 1m6f on the Flat in the summer and then showed he'd get this trip with a win over 2m at Beverley in July, whilst Liam Swagger's stablemate Kinetic is also interesting, receiving weight all round. He had a run of form reading 211141 over 1m4f-1m6f in the summer and he now drops in class for his hurdles debut.

I'll take all three here ie (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Believitanducan & (9) Kinetic

Leg 2 @ 12.40...Beylerbeyi made the frame in 10 of 22 on the Flat/AW, winning four times, including his last run in that sphere at Wolverhampton in October. Things didn't go to plan after a mistake at the third flight of his hurdle debut at Ascot last month, but he'll come on for having had the run. El Rayo's hurdling debut was a more successful affair, finishing third of eleven at Huntingdon, coming off a nine-month break. He was only a length and a quarter off the winner and the runner-up has made the frame again since.

Roysse looks the one to beat here with three solid runs under his belt. After finishing 4th of 17 on debut in a Wincanton bumper thirteen months ago, he then won a bumper here over course and distance in January before taking nine months off. He reappeared last month to finish second (headed late on the run-in by a horse who was a Listed class runner-up 11 days ago) over today's class, track and trip on hurdle debut and there's probably more to come.

Sergeant Fury will need to bounce back from a disappointing effort at Huntingdon 10 days ago, having finished third in both a bumper and on hurdles debut last month, whilst bottom-weight Mistress Emma finally makes her way back to the track some 903 days after winning a bumper at Worcester on debut. She has been injured but her yard (Nicky Henderson) will have schooled her well for a race they have won four times in the last six years.

(8) Roysse is the standout here, but I'll also take a chance with (3) El Rayo and (11) Mistress Emma

Leg 3 @ 1.15...Pretty competitive for a six-runner contest where (tempting fate) only Moulins Clermont seems out of the running.

Kyntara has only tackled fences once, when a distant (24L) second of nine at Hereford just over two years ago and hasn't been on a track since falling (when third) in the Grade 1 Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree in April. Prior to that, though he'd had a good season over the smaller obstacles finishing 11222. Mt Fugi Park makes a chase debut and just a sixth start. He won a pair of Class 4 hurdles first up last season, but the step up to Class 3 and Grade 2 seemed to find him out somewhat, but he stays and likes the mud.

Wrappedupinmay hasn't been seen for almost 11 months since winning a 3m hurdle at Exeter. He had a wind op in the summer and you can expect Paul Nicholls to have him well tuned up for a chase debut. Herakles Westwood does, however, have the benefit of both a recent run and an effort over fences, as he finished second of five on chase debut at Taunton three weeks ago, beaten by just three lengths over 3m despite coming off a 223-day absence. Should have more to give here.

Kintail has also had a recent chase outing, making his chasing bow after 289 days off, when sighted at Warwick six weeks ago. He was last home of three, beaten by almost nine lengths. He'll come on for the experience and the runner-up has already finished second again before winning at Warwick six days ago.

My 1-2-3 here would be (4) Herakles Westwood, (3) Wrappedupinmay & (5) Kintail

Leg 4 @ 1.50...Racing has little respect for price tickets, but Buckna showed signs of justifying his £350,000 sale when second in a 14-runner hurdle at Ffos Las on his Rules debut four weeks ago. He had moved for big money forllowing a PTP win at Kirkistown (IRE) in March and looks useful so far.

Captain Bellamy won a Class 5 bumper on debut, flopped in a Listed bumper and was then third at Class 2 in march. He took eight months prior to last month's hurdles debut where he was second of five at Class 3 behind Skyjack Hijack who stepped up in class to win next time out. The only fly in the ointment from Captain Bellamy's last run is that he was 26 lengths off the winner, but in fairness was 24 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

De Kingpin was a heavy ground runner-up on his sole bumper outing in March and then finished a solid third of eight at this grade on hurdles debut at Sandown 252 days later, but didn't run to that level next/last time out despite dropping in class, finishing just 5th of 9 as an odds-on fav. I think he's better than that.

This trio are the ones with any discernible 'form' to their names and pretty much pick themselves, but there's an interesting (to me, anyway) debutant in the shape of Nativehill, who hasn't been seen since landing a PTP at Loughanmore in April 2023. He's a half-brother to the useful Bellshill and Chieftain's Choice, he changed hands for £260k after his PTP win and you know that with Nico de Boinville riding for Nicky Henderson that he'll be asked to give everything and I think I prefer his potential to De Kingpin's last run.

So, its (1) Buckna, (2) Captain Bellamy & (7) Nativehill here for me.

Leg 5 @ 2.25...Just five go to post here and I don't much like Harper's Brook, even if he did win a Class 2 chase back in February, so that takes me to four contenders...

General Medrano is possibly the one to beat dropping down in class after a comfortable nine length success in a £26k Class 2 handicap over course and distance less than three weeks ago. he's up 10lbs here, but that shouldn't be enough to stop him. Primoz won the first and last of his four hurdles races and scored on chase debut, landing a Class 3 handicap at Wetherby in mid-October off the back of a six-month break. He possibly found 2m4½f too far at Cheltenham last time out and will appreciate the half mile drop in trip here.

Bourbali has stacks of experience after 28 starts, making the frame in half of them including 6 wins. He's 2 from 8 over fences and won most recently at Kempton, making all of the 2m2f and jumping soundly. He tired over 2m5f at the same venue next/last time out, but managed third of seven and will also appreciate the shorter race here. Javert Allen is interesting on just his six outing. He finished 1222 over hurdles, beaten by just three quarters of a length by the useful Lowry's Bar at Wincanton a year ago. He didn't re-appear until six weeks ago, but landed a Chepstow chase over today's trip and I expect/suspect he has more to offer.

I've got this as a two-horse race between (1) General Medrano & (5) Javert Allen with a slight leaning towards the former. If these fail, then (4) Bourbali might edge Primoz out.

Leg 6 @ 3.00...Densworth is inconsistent, but has won 5 of 11 starts. His inconsistency is highlighted by the fact that he has failed to either finish or make the frame in 5 of 11 starts too, but did win by 7.5 lengths in a Class 3 chase at Wetherby a month ago at this class/trip. He's up 9lbs for that win, but if in the same mood, could well again here. The Edgar Wallace made the frame in 5 of 6 bumper/hurdle outings, winning twice and was a winner on chase debut in November 2021. He was placed 1122 over fences last season prior to finishing down the field in the Class 1 Topham at Aintree in April after which he had seven months off. He looked like needing the run when 4th of 7 at Kempton three weeks ago and should come on again.

Saint Segal has been a useful placepot pick in the past, making the frame in 8 of 18 starts, but hasn't got close to winning a race in nine starts since finishing 112 at the start of his chase career in November '22 to Jan '23. More is required here. Beau Balko is probably a safe one to put on the ticket builder, having only failed to finish in the first three home once in nine starts over fences and that was on debut 15 months ago. Since then he is 22133312 and drops in class today.

I've got this as (5) Beau Balko beating (1) Densworth with (2) The Edgar Wallace preferred to Saint Segal.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Liam Swagger, (2) Believitanducan & (9) Kinetic

Leg 2: (3) El Rayo, (8) Roysse & (11) Mistress Emma

Leg 3: (3) Wrappedupinmay, (4) Herakles Westwood & (5) Kintail

Leg 4: (1) Buckna, (2) Captain Bellamy & (7) Nativehill

Leg 5: (1) General Medrano & (5) Javert Allen

Leg 6: (1) Densworth, (2) The Edgar Wallace & (5) Beau Balko

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
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