Tix Picks, Tuesday 22/10/24

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Exeter, Newcastle & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with the biggest guaranteed pot offered at Newcastle, where the tapeta is said to be standard for a meeting that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.15, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4½f...

None of these come here in great form, but King Lear was a runner-up two starts ago, La Pulga was a winner on his penultimate outing and bottom weight Dramatic Star won three starts back and should find this easier than the two big-money handicaps he has tackled on his last two runs. He also gets a 6lb weight allowance as the sole 3yo in the contest and has been gelded since his last run.

If we looked solely at A/W form over the last couple of years, La Pulga ticks this box too, as do Chichester and Capital Theory, although most of the field lack relevant A/W experience...

...and with a distinct possibility that he might well try to nick the race from the front if afforded a soft lead...

..then (7) La Pulga must be in with a shout of making the frame. (3) King Lear is the one most likely to give chase and he was only beaten by less than a length on his A/W (and Tapeta) debut two starts ago. The fourth placed horse from that race has since won at Dundalk, so we'll take him along with bottom weight (9) Dramatic Star, who won well at Hamilton in June before finding the two big-money handicaps a bit too warm for him.

Leg 2 @ 4.50, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m2f...

Marama sets the standard here having been a runner-up on debut at Haydock at the end of September 2023 and she was a seven length winner in a similar race to this at Chester a month ago upon her return from a 322-day absence. Yeah, she carries a penalty for that win, but she should come on for having the run, she drops in class here and she did win so convincingly LTO that I have to put top-weight Marama straight on my ticket builder.

King of Lightning ran really well on debut over a mile here in February, going down by just a head as a runner-up of eight, but was only fourth of fifth here over the same trip beaten by 12 lengths next/last time out 18 days ago. He had admittedly been off the track for eight months, so should also come on for the run.

Warm Response was third of ten on debut at Southwell ealier this month and whilst he went pretty well, he wasn't that close to actually landing a blow, going down by 10.5 lengths, meaning that Sword's 4.5 length defeat LTO is probably a better effort, althouh Warm Response does drop in class here.

Things haven't quite clicked in terms of wins for Sword, who has yet to get of the mark in his six starts, despite being sent off at 2/1 or shorter in each of his last four. That said, he has made the frame in three of his last five, so whilst he might not be good enough to win races just yet, there is a level of consistency.

I nailed my colours to the (1) Marama mast early doors and I'll also go with consistent nearly-horse (6) Sword with a slight preference for class-dropper (7) Warm Response as my final pick, but I suspect it could by any of five or six for that third spot.

Leg 3 @ 5.25, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

I suspect this might well boil down to the four runners who've already shown some ability and an aptitude for racing. Everyoneknowsadave won LTO, landing a 7f maiden at Wolverhampton by the thick end of two lengths to get off the mark at the third attempt. Sapphire Valley won comfortably on debut by 2.5 lengths, also in a Wolverhampton 7f maiden and didn't run badly at Chelmsford last time out despite fading late on. He went off too soon and lost two places in the closing to finish fourth. The first two home have both won since.

Shamador only went down by a length and three quarters on his debut as runner-up of twelve over today's course and distance but never really got invlved at Chelmsford next/last time out, whilst Velvet Whisper was also a runner-up on debut just twelve days ago, beaten by a length and ahalf over 7f on the tapeta at Southwell. She was slow away, but really got going late on She finshed strongest of all and grabbed second almost on the line. She should come on for the run and if she gets going a little sooner, could go one better.

Based on the above runners, (11) Velvet Whisper and (2) Sapphire Valley make most appeal and although Everyoneknowsadave's run LTO was better than Shamador's, he's now penalised and the latter has expereince of this course/distance, so (7) Shamador is my marginal preference.

Leg 4 @ 5.55, a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

There's no absolute stand-out on form here but Muker was a runner-up two starts ago, whilst Lucky Man's penultimate outing saw him land a 6f handicap at Windsor. Cover Point has a win and a place from his last three with Jenever making the frame in three of his own last four starts including a win over 5f at Sandown and a very good 4th of 22 in the Ayr Silver Cup last time out.

Elegant Erin has won two of her last five outings, Londoner was beaten by three parts of a length over 6f here earlier this month, Alligator Alley has a win and a runner-up finish in his last five and Arecibo was a runner-up two starts ago. Piloto Pardo won three races back, but hasn't been seen for over four months and bottom-weight Cast No Shadow won his penultimate race and has won two of his last five.

So there's quite a few who have shown some fairly recent aptitude and several of these have decent numbers on Instant Expert...

...along with the likes of Badri and Harvanna. Badri looks dangerously weighted here at 5lbs below his last win, but in a wide open race where you could pick four or five for the places and still miss out, I'm going to focus on the ones I mentioned in the preview who also feature on that IE graphic above, so that's Muker, Jenever, Londoner and Arecibo.

On form/recent performance, I'd say that I preferred (8) Jenever and (10) Londoner, whilst of the other two, (12) Arecibo's numbers are better than Muker's above and he's also likely to race further forward than Muker

Leg 5 @ 6.25, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Only Sixcor comes here off the back of a win and he looked comfortable getting home by 2.5 lengths at Musselburgh last week. Elsewhere Meccas Duchess, Rockley Point and Cuban Rock all finished third, but none of this field are in top form if truth be told.

Northerner ran well on her A/W debut to finish a two-lengths fourth of ten here over course and distance at the start of the month and finished strongly, so she might improve here. Elzaal hasn't won for some time, but has made the frame in 13 of 18 races over today's course and distance, winning five times. Stallone also has a decent record over 5f here at Newcastle winning three of eleven attempts, whilst 11yr old veteran Rockley Point rarely wins nowadays (26 defeats on the bounce), but does possess a terrific 63% place strike (17 from 27) over course and distance and he's actually the standout on Instant Expert along with the afore-mentioned Elzaal!

There's not much to be gained from the draw over a straight 5f here at Newcastle, although those drawn mid to high do have a slightly better record, but pace is often the key here. Sadly I think we might get a bit of a falsely run race with no real front runner in the pack...

...meaning that Cuban Rock and Sixcor might be the ones to take it on, especially Sixcor who used these tactics to such good effect last time out.

I'm going to take (5) Sixcor on the basis of that win LTO and the fact that he might set the tempo here. (6) Elzaal and (9) Rockley Point caught the eye on Instant Expert, so I'll take a punt on this pair in what looks another open (if poor) race and at 16/1 with bookies paying four places, I might also back the latter as a small E/W gamble.

Leg 6 @ 6.55, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Again no LTO winners, but Million Thanks, Pursuit of Truth, Alpine Sierra, Sir Maxi and Barleybrown all finished in the first three home with Pursuit of Truth's 2nd of 13 at Kempton on handicap debut and Alpine Sierra's defeat by a neck probably the better two runs from that group of placers.

9yo Jewel Maker hasn't been in the best form of late but along with Barleybrown is a former course and distance winner, having made the frame in half of his ten attempts (winning twice), whilst Barleybrown's C&D record is three wins and a place from seven runs.

And it's Barleybrown who leads the way on 2-year relevant form...

...so I'll take (11) Barleybrown here on that evidence along with both (4) Pursuit of Truth and (5) Alpine Sierra on their last runs plus scope for improvement.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) King Lear, (7) La Pulga & (9) Dramatic Star

Leg 2: (1) Marama, (6) Sword & (7) Warm Response

Leg 3: (2) Sapphire Valley, (7) Shamador & (11) Velvet Whisper

Leg 4: (8) Jenever, (10) Londoner & (12) Arecibo

Leg 5: (5) Sixcor, (6) Elzaal & (9) Rockley Point

Leg 6: (4) Pursuit of Truth, (5) Alpine Sierra & (11) Barleybrown

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck today, guys, this looks very tricky.
Chris

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
• Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24