Tix Picks, Wednesday 23/10/24

Wednesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Fontwell, Kempton, Newmarket & Southwell.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...and it's probably time to try an NH meeting or two, so let's head to Fontwell where the going is expected to be soft for their six race card which starts with...

Leg 1 @ 1.55, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ maiden hurdle over 2m3½f...

It's a maiden hurdle, so no previous winners, of course, but French Symphony has made the frame in two of his three starts and Walden was third of nine in a bumper at Huntingdon last time out, but hasn't raced in over five months. Torre del Oro has actually won a race, landing a 1m4f Class 5 handicap on the A/W at Wolverhampton back in April '23 so I'm not sure whether that bears any relevance here.

Lagertha acquitted herself well in two Class 2 bumpers in the Spring, was 4th of 18 at Cheltenham last time out and drops in class here. La Higuera was also fourth last time out, when making a debut at Ffos Las and he was third in two of his three PTP runs, whilst Tommy The Tank is an interesting debutant, having won his some PTP race by seven lengths and as a 6yo, has clearly been waited with.

From these, I'm going to go with (3) French Symphony, (5) La Higuera & (13) Lagertha, although Tommy The Tank is definitely interesting.

Leg 2 @ 2.30, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m6½f...

What's My Line is 2 from 17 over hurdles and Footloose Man is 1 from 9, whilst the rest of the field are yert to win a race of any kind anywhere. Footloose Man actaully won three starts ago over 2m2f here at Fontwell and has been fourth in two runs since, whereas What's My Line's last win was seven starts ago, when landing a 2m hurdle at Lingfield last November.

Golden Ambition was a runner-up, beaten by a length and a quarter in a 10-runner field here over 2m3½f almost three weeks ago (What's My Line was 8th that day, almost 80 lengths off the pace), whilst Little Talks was third of six over 3m½f at Fakenham beaten by just over two lengths when last seen in early June.

Stage Show has finished fourth in both starts in handicap hurdle contests and having only been beaten by less than 3.5 lengths and less than 5.5 lengths in those races, isn't that far from making the frame and his yard is in good nick right now...

...whilst Footloose Man's yard have a good record at this track from the very few runners they send here...

and with him also dominating the Instant Expert picture...

I'm taking (7) Footloose Man to at least make the frame here, along with (4) Golden Ambition and (9) Stage Show

Leg 3 @ 3.05, a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m2f...

Koenigsstern is an interesting chase debutant after making the frame in two of his three handicap hurdle starts and runs off a mark slightly lower than he had over hurdles and drops in class here. Hatos won back to back handicap chases on heavy ground back in February and if ready should be one to watch on his seasonal reappearance as he drops two classes for his first run for new handler Joe Tizzard. Will Sting's sole chase success came nine starts ago in late January 2023, but he has made the frame in three of his last five, is 5lbs below his last winning mark and also drops in class.

I'd be quite surprised if at least two of those three weren't in the first three home here based on their own form, but Hatos' yard/rider are in good nick generally...

Both of Koenigsstern's placed efforts over hurdles have been on soft ground, Hatos has won twice on heavy ground and Will Sting has made the frame in two of his three races over 2m12f to 2m2f and these three lead the way in each of those categories and over a course and distance where front-runners have fared best, this trio head the pace averages...

...so you'll not be too surprised that I'm taking (3) Koenigsstern, (4) Hatos & (5) Will Sting

Leg 4 @ 3.40, a 5-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m3½f...

Oscars Moonshine has won each of his last three, but has been off the track for five days short of a year, but did win after a 200-day absence this time last year and was a runner-up after a 361-day break this time three years ago, so the layoff might not cost him the race. Colours on Cnavas made all to win back to back races by decent margins in February/March, but was pulled up three weeks later on the hat-trick attempt and was disappointing returning from a 163-day break last month.

Whatsupwithyou closed last season out by finishing 122, culminating in a very good second of fifteen beaten by just half a length in a Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham in mid-April. On that form, you'd be all over him, but he's had six months off, doesn't tend to go too well after a break (7644 after 150+ days) and isn't getting any younger at 10, but I haven't written him off just yet.

Classic Lord won back to back novice hurdles (inc here over 2m2f on heavy ground) last winter and was a runner-up at Sandown in February, but his handicap record reads 5th of 7, last of six and a fall, so he looks vulnerable here, whilst Junkanoo is another who might have lost his way a little. He started his hurdles career last November and finished 2221 in his first four attempts, but his handicap form reads P85 and he quickly faded in a 2m contest last time out.

All of which leads me to preferring (1) Oscars Moonshine & (3) Whatsupwithyou, as I take a chance on their fitness.

Leg 5 @ 4.15, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f...

Samourai One won three starts ago, but was pulled up in his last two races of last season, although the booking of Harry Cobden is interesting. Caeruleum is a nine-race maiden, but has been a runner-up in three of five over fences including his last two and he was only beaten by a neck last time out.

Instant Gambler has been a revelation over fences, winning all three starts. His five-race hurdling career saw him produce very little in five races, after which he went back to the shed for 565 days. He re-emerged as a chaser and won here at Fontwell over today's course and distance in early September and repeated the feat 16 days later, before going on to win over this trip at Hexham next/last time out.

Elsewhere, Eurkash and No Drama were both runners-up on their penultimate outings, but the latter hasn't raced for over three years now whilst the former drops in class here. As you'd expect, Instant Gambler is the Instant Expert eye-catcher, but some of the others have acquitted themselves pretty well under these conditions too...

and I think it's going to be (6) Instant Gambler and (7) Eurkash for me today. I'll also take a punt on Harry Cobden getting a bit more from (3) Samourai One at the expense of Caeruleum

Leg 6 @ 4.45, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ mares novice handicap hurdle over 2m3½f...

Drumlee Spud had finished 22F3 (fell at the last whilst leading) in her forst four starts, but a step up to Grade 2 for her last run was probably a bit much. That said she wasn't disgraced, finishing 7th of 17 on unsuitable ground and I suspect we'll see better from her back down in class on softer ground. Tuscan Rose was third on good to soft at Southwell at the start of the year but was a soft ground winner at Taunton last time out, whilst both Miss Popalong and Lady Salvador were third last time out.

Instant Expert points towards those four going well again today and also suggests that Pennsylvanie might get involved, although her recent form isn't up to much...

From a stats perspective, Tuscan Rose's yard is going very nicely right now...

...and whilst Miss Popalong's yard doesn't send many runners to Fontwell, they do tend to run well here...

I've had a quick look at the market and they've probably got it the same way as I'm thinking, sadly, as I'm going with (1) Drumlee Spud, (3) Tuscan Rose & (5) Miss Popalong. I did think about Lady Salvador, but I'm not entirely convinced about her jumping.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) French Symphony, (5) La Higuera & (13) Lagertha

Leg 2: (4) Golden Ambition, (7) Footloose Man & (9) Stage Show

Leg 3: (3) Koenigsstern, (4) Hatos & (5) Will Sting

Leg 4: (1) Oscars Moonshine & (3) Whatsupwithyou

Leg 5: (3) Samourai One, (6) Instant Gambler & (7) Eurkash

Leg 6: (1) Drumlee Spud, (3) Tuscan Rose & (5) Miss Popalong

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
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