The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 2.55 Brighton
- 3.55 Galway
- 4.30 Galway
- 5.00 Newton Abbot
I don't particularly like either of the two UK races above, so I'll be taking a look at the day's highest rated race, the sole Class 2 contest in the UK, the 4.25 Newton Abbot. This is an 8-runner handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older and the trip is a left-handed 3m2½f on good/good to soft ground...
Go Chique was a winner last time out (and is 2 from 5) and Slate Lane comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning both his UK starts despite showing little in Ireland. Mr Yeats has been the runner-up in each of his last four, whilst Tommie Beau has won two from four. Sammylou looks weak on the back of six straight losses.
Only Mr Yeats (now visored for the first time) and Valentino ran in this grade last time, although the latter hasn't raced for ten months with Tommie Beau and Hunting Percival both now stepping up a level. Go Chique, Presenting Yeats and Sammylou are all up two classes, whilst Slate Lane's win at Bangor last month was at Class 5, although he did win at Class 4 two starts ago. This will be his second effort in handicap company after winning on debut at Bangorand he's up in trip and weight here.
Aside from Valentino's ten month absence, the field have all raced in the last five weeks or so and Slate Lane is the only one yet to win at a similar trip to this one. Mr Yeats, Valentino and Presenting Yeats and Sammylou have all won over this type of trip here at Newton Abbot already, whilst Tommie Beau has won a 3m2f chase here as recently as the end of May.
Much of the above and more is covered by Instant Expert, of course...
...where the win stats show Tommie Beau in the best light, whilst Presenting Yeats looks weakest. We can't however ignore the fact that the latter is now rated 16lbs higher than his last hurdle win, but in his defence, that was back in May 2022 and he's been chasing mainly since then and did win over fences off 127 in June! Slate Lane and Mr Yeats are also both considerably higher in the weights than their last hurdles successes. Aside from Presenting Yeats generally weak stats, there aren't too many negatives on those win percentages and if you're an E/W or place punter, the place data suggests Mr Yeats might well be of interest to you...
Today's free feature is the pace element of the racecard and this shows how the field have approached their most recent outings. They are awarded a score of 4 if they led, 3 for a prominent position, 2 for racing in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up run and this group's most recent efforts look like this...
...with top weight and sole mare, Go Chique expected to set the pace with Sammylou a confirmed hold-up type. Presenting Yeats' pace stats are a little misleading though. He has a 4 from LTO, but 3 x 1's before that, so let me briefly explain that he is a front-runner, but is often reluctant to race. So, if he gets away with the others (which he doesn't often enough), he'll probably head the filed early, but the stats suggest he'll miss the break and be slow away, which according to our Pace Analyser could be the end of his chances here...
Summary
My shortlist for the contest doesn't totally tie in with the early market, but that doesn't worry too much, they can't be right all the time!
If I was to split the field in half, I'd want to be siding with (in alphabetical order) Go Chique, Mr Yeats, Slate Lane and Tommie Beau and this quartet are currently (3.20pm on Sunday!) priced at 11/1, 8/1, 4/9 fav and 18/1 respectively and based on his last two runs, Slate Lane is probably the one to beat.
He is however, up in trip by 3f, up three classes and up 10lbs and that doesn't scream 4/9 fav to me, especially when the next in the market is 8/1! I'm not saying he can't/won't win, but I can't be backing him at those odds.
I am, however interested in the other three and I think their prices offer us a good chance of some E/W success with Tommie Beau in particular looking overpriced.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
