Tix Picks, Friday 24/10/24

Friday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Newbury & Wolverhampton.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

And with Cheltenham's pot being so huge, I think we need to check out the six races on good ground that kick off with...

Leg 1 @ 1.15, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m4f...

LTO winner Push The Button has won three from four, Wyenot is three from five, In The Air comes here on a hat-trick, Support Act has two wins and a runner-up finish from four starts, Letterston Lily has made the frame in six of her last seven (3 wins) and Callin Baton Rouge is three from three since moving yards. Mind you, she finished 2422 on her last four starts for her previous handler.

Most of this half-dozen I've highlighted on form are up a class today, but Letterston Lily drops down after a couple of Class 2 races, whilst Wyenot was third of nine (behind a Festival winner completing a 4-timer) over this course and distance in a Listed contest last time out and now drops two classes.

Push The Button, Wyenot and Support Act all make handicap debuts today off opening marks of 132, 123 and 113 and I think the last two are fairly lenient, especially as the one that beat Wyenot LTO is rated 139.

This half-dozen are my shortlist from which I'm taking (6) Wyenot, (9) In The Air & (13) Callin Baton Rouge. I do like Push The Button, but an opening mark of 132 after 11 months off the track might just be too much, Support Act also hasn't raced for eight months and Letterston Lily is the unlucky one to be left out.

Leg 2 @ 1.50, a 4-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ novice chase over 2m..

Jazzy Matty won the Fred Winter in 2023 but disappointed in four subsequent efforts over hurdles before falling 3 out on his chase debut at Wexford in early August. He was then first and third at the same venue over 2m3½f before being pulled up early at Listowel just over a month ago. he did bounce back to land a 2m5f chase at Sligo last time out, but this race is tougher than he's faced before.

San Salvador won a grade 2 hurdle at Punchestown at the end of 2022, but was pulled up in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham on his last effort over hurdles. He started 4F74 over fences before the penny dropped last month with back to back wins down in trip at Listowel and Roscommon inside eight days, the latter being a Grade 3 which puts him right in the mix here.

Noble Anthem was 2 from 9 on the Flat and was a runner-up in the final two of his four hurdles starts. This will be his third crack at fences, having finished 4th of 13 at Market Rasen in July before winning next/last time out at Sedgefield at the start of this month. That, however, was a Class 4 affair and this is much tougher up two classes.

Path D'Oroux comes from the tard that won this race last year with 4/7 fav My Mate Mozzie and he's likely to go off at similar odds in a race where shorties have done really well. For his own part, he has yet to win any of ten starts over fences, but has been a runner-up in Listed company and has made the frame in Class 1 handicaps at both the Cheltenham & Aintree Festivals this year and this race is probably a weaker affair than he has faced of late and this could be the ideal opportunity to get off the mark, a thought backed up by the performances of both his yard and his rider here at HQ...

(2) San Salvador & (5) Path D'Oroux here for me.

Leg 3 @ 2.25, a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m...

Dancing On My Own won this race last year, had two creditable Class 1 runs in the spring before finishing second at Killarney in July and then he won at Ballinrobe next/last time out two months ago. Arclight was pulled up in a Grade 2 last time out after winning each of her three previous starts over fences, including two Listed races and drops in class here. Scarface has finished 3312113 in his last seven including a Class 1 handicap win at Sandown and he was third of twelve here at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 handicap on his last run.

Coastguard Station has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five, including a Class 2 success, whilst bottom weight Royal Mer's chasing career read 12152111 before being pulled up at Ayr last time out, but he has ever raced higher than Class 3 and steps up in class today.

The one I would mention whose form doesn't appear great is Matata. he was pretty well beaten in a pair of Grade 1's at the Cheltenham & Aintree Festival this year on his last two runs, but had finished 122 in his three previous outings, the last of which saw him beaten by just half a length in a Grade 2 race at Lingfield. This is a much lower standard today and any return to that kind of form puts him right in the mix, plus he's he likely front-runner in a race that has benefited those willing to set the tempo...

...and it's from this quartet that I'll make my choices. Matata is quite possibly the best runner in the race, whilst Dancing On My Own is proven over course and distance plus his yard's stats stand up well...

Leaving me to pick between Arclight & Scarface. I don't have much between them if truth be told, but Arclight might offer more value in the market, so I'm taking (1) Dancing On My Own, (2) Matata & (5) Arclight here.

Leg 4 @ 3.00, a 6-runner, Grade 2, 4yo+ novice hurdle over 2m½f...

All bar Dancing In Paris won last time out and he's the only one to have been beaten over hurdles as Imaginarium, Strong Foundations, Valgrand, Brave Knight & Gale Mahler are unbeaten in 1, 1, 2, 3 and 4 races respectively. Gale Mahler won her last two bumpers too, so she's now unbeaten in her last six starts and havingh won a Listed race by ten lengths last time out, she has to be the one to beat.

Front-runner Valgrand and Brave Knight look much better than the other three and in a safety-first approach, I'll take all three here; (3) Valgrand, (4) Brave Knight & (6) Gale Mahler

Leg 5 @ 3.35, a 19-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m1f...

Wow, where to start? Well, we do have the last three winners of this race opposing each other today as Strictlyadancer (2021), Jimmy The Digger (2022) and Mole Court (2023) will all take their shot.

11yo Amateur did win two starts ago, but isn't reliable and has been pulled up in four of his last five. Ceanndana is 3113P21121 in his last ten starts, Jack's Parrot comes here on a hat-trick, Hold Your Fort's last five read 11112 and The Boola Boss has seven to-three finishes from his last nine outings, including three wins, whilst my Instant Expert shortlist looks like this...

Despite this being a 3m1f slog, pace is still key and our pace analyser suggests those on the front end fare best of all in these big field chases...

...which will benefit the likes of Mole Court, Hold Your Fort and The Boola Boss the most, if their recent runs are anything to go by...

So, we've looked at recent form, 2yr stats and pace so far and both Hold Your Foert and The Boola Boss have had a mention in each section, so they're going on my ticket builder today. Mole Court will possibly be the pacemaker, but doesn't arrive here in great form and I think that the reliable/consistent Ceanndana might be a better option for us, so that's (9) Ceanndana, (12) Hold Your Fort & (15) The Boola Boss.

Leg 6 @ 4.10, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ novice hurdle over 2m4f...

All bar better Off Alone and Cloonainra come here off the back of a win, but I agree with the bookies in that this should be a two-horse race between (3) Minella Sixo and (4) Potters Charm.

Minella Sixo won his sole PTP outing back in May before going on to win by eight lengths on his racecourse debut at Fairyhouse 18 days ago and the margin of victory could well have been much more, whilst Potters Charm backed his 11 length bumper win on debut at Ffos Las in March with a 3.5 length victory at Worcester recently defying any ill-effects from a six-month break.

Potters Charm's team are flying right now, so another success wouldn't be a huge surprise...

...whilst Minella Sixo's team do great with LTO winners and horses making their second appearance...

...and since the start of 2020, Gordon Elliott's horses making their second start after winning on debut have made the frame in 47 of 80 (58.75%) races, winning 27 (33.75%) of them

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (6) Wyenot, (9) In The Air & (13) Callin Baton Rouge

Leg 2: (2) San Salvador & (5) Path D'Oroux

Leg 3: (1) Dancing On My Own, (2) Matata & (5) Arclight

Leg 4: (3) Valgrand, (4) Brave Knight & (6) Gale Mahler

Leg 5: (9) Ceanndana, (12) Hold Your Fort & (15) The Boola Boss

Leg 6: (3) Minella Sixo and (4) Potters Charm

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Fingers crossed, this looks tough!
Chris

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• Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
• Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
• Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
• Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
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