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Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with Mole Court of the most obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.58 Punchestown
  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 7.40 Huntingdon
  • 7.58 Hexham
  • 8.20 Cork
  • 8.40 Huntingdon

So I suppose it makes sense to have a look at Mole Court and Ballintubber Boy from The Shortlist, as they run in one of our 'free' races, the 7.40 Huntingdon, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 3m 1f 10y on good ground...

My initial thoughts here are that we're possibly looking at a three-horse race between (in card order) featured runner Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya, but only Mole Court won last time out and he has actually won five of his last six outings.

None of the other five won last time out either; Planet Legend was a runner-up beaten by just a neck at Ludlow (with Ubetya six lengths and two places further back), but the rest of the field failed to make the frame with both Edison Kent and Petrastar not completing their races. All runners have won at least one of their last seven outings, though.

Only Petrastar ran at this grade last time out with all of his rivals here bar Back On the Lash and Edison Kent (who both drop down from Class 2) stepping up a class today. Unusually, though, we've no yard or handicap debutants, nor any new headgear being worn or any return from wind surgery/gelding and most of the field ran just 25-27 days ago.

Back On The Lash has had almost eight weeks off, but that shouldn't be an issue here, but Edison Kent hasn't raced for almost four months and hasn't completed a race for over five months, whilst Ballintubber Boy's last race was a week shy of six months ago.

Ballintubber Boy is, however, the only runner in this field to have won over course and distance, which he achieved two starts/seven months ago. Midnight Reflection and featured runner Mole Court are the other two runners to have won at a similar trip, whilst only Back On The Lash, Edison Kent and Ubetya are yet to win here at Huntingdon. Mind you, only the 0 from 3 Edison Kent of that trio has actually raced here...

My immediate takeaways from Instant Expert are that Midnight Reflection's better efforts have come over shorter trips than this and that Mole Court's +24lbs from his last win can't be right, so I'll check.

Ah, so his mark today of 116 is technically 24lbs higher than his last hurdles win fifteen months ago, but has since won five of six over fences off marks of up to 120 last time out, so he's actually 4lbs lower than his last win, whereas Petrastar runs off 108 here, the same as his chasing mark and is now 14lbs below his last hurdles win, but that was in August 2020 and his hurdle form since then reads 776P2367 (mainly in 7-runner races, too), so it's unsurprising to see his mark falling.

Planet Legend has the showing on place stats, whilst Ubetya is unexposed under these conditions. Ballintubber Boy's numbers are a little skewed by his successes in the earlier part of the two-year period, whilst Edison Kent would probably want a bit more cut in the ground.

There doesn't appear to be much of a pace bias here at Huntingdon when you get beyond three miles...

...but there has been a slight advantage the further forward you have raced, which probably partially explains why Ballintubber Boy and Mole Court have been successful here in the past, if there recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

From the outset, I thought that featured runner Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya were the best runners in the race and there's not been any evidence shown above to sway me from that thought. There's not a huge pace bias, but those running furthest forward have fared better and my three are expected to race in that same Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya order, so that's how I'll arrange my 1-2-3 today.

The early (4pm Monday) Bet365 market agrees with my 1-2 and has Mole Court and Planet Legend at 9/4 and 3/1 respectively, but they go 10's about Ubetya and that looks like a decent E/W offer to me.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 20/05/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 5.06 Windsor
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 6.50 Roscommon
  • 7.40 Windsor

...so we're off to Windsor. I've opted to look at the first of the list, that 5.06 race, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio all come here off the back of LTO wins inside the last five weeks and Freds Mate won three starts ago. I Love Paris, Rakki and Malinka are yet to get off the mark after 5, 4 and 3 starts respectively.

I Love Paris and Rakki both drop in class here and that might help them here and Freds Mate has been gelded since his last run. That run was 136 days ago, so he might well need the run, but at 184 days off, Alacrity's fitness will be tested hee ,as the others have all raced in the last 37 days.

We don't have much relevant form to go off, but Caprelo won over this trip at Kempton last time out and Lucentio's win here a fortnight ago was over course and distance. Sadly this field have very little experience at this level and this is reflected in a lack of data within Instant Expert..

 

...so I'll move straight on to the draw stats, which suggest that runners in stalls 1 and 2 could be disadvantaged...

...whilst those races above have been won as follows...

...and with so many different viable options available, it could be an open contest, where I suspect Alacrity will be the early pacesetter, if his recent runs are anything to go by...

On that 'evidence', Malinka would be the back marker but be aware of horses changing how they run in the early stages of their careers.

If we now put what we know about the field into that pace-draw heatmap...

Summary

Pretty short and hopefully sweet today and I can't help but think that the 3 LTO winners, Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio will provide our first three home here, although Rakki looks good on the pace/draw heatmap.

Alacrity might need a run, Caprelo's form has all been on the A/W while Lucentio's LTO win was on soft ground, so none of the three are perfect.

Should Alacrity be race-fit, then he'd be my tentative pick at 5/1*, offering more apparent value than the 5/2* and 11/4* being offered about Caprelo and Lucentio with the latter being my preference.

*prices taken from Bet365 at 5pm Sunday

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.40 Navan
  • 4.20 Thirsk
  • 5.05 Bangor
  • 5.35 Doncaster

And of the twelve UK races in total from above, I'm going to look at the highest rated which is the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes aka the 1.50 Newbury, a 9-runner, 4yo+ flat contest over a left-handed 1m4f on good/good to soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a battle between Middle Earth and Salt bay for the right to finish second behind the King's horse Desert Hero, but things don't always pan out as they first appear, so let's dive into the recent form first...

All nine have won at least one of their last six, including German import So Moonstruck (3rd in the German Derby LTO), who makes a UK debut today. Bolster is three from five and won last time out, as did Middle Earth, who has won three of his last four starts, whilst Maxi King arrives here seeking a fourth win on the bounce.

Maxi King is upped in class here, though, as are Bolster and Cemhaan. Middle Earth might be in need of a run after a 225-day lay-off, whilst it's over 22 months since So Moonstruck was last seen, but the other seven have all raced in the last four weeks.

So far, only three of these have raced here at Newbury for a collective 0 wins from 4, although Salt Bay has made the frame on both attempts. Cemhaan, Desert hero, Maxi King and Middle Earth have already won over today's trip according to Instant Expert...

...where Middle Earth seems to be the one best suited so far, off an admittedly small number of relevant runs. Flying Honours has some decent numbers there, too, but finished last of 11 on his sole 2023 start and was last of seven on his only run this year. Desert Hero is proven at the trip, but would prefer more cut in the ground. That said, his place stats are excellent...

...and on those alone, he appears to steal Middle Earth's thunder and both King of Conquest and Flying Honours look vulnerable. Desert hero is the highest-rated runner in the race at 113, which technically makes him at least 3lbs 'well-in' off equal weights, whilst Maxi King is rated some 17lbs lower than Desert Hero

Somewhat unusually for a trip of 1m4f, there does seem to be an advantage to be had from the draw, as those drawn lowest have fared much better than others...

...which is good news for the likes of Salt Bay, Maxi King and Bolster, but there's no huge pace bias here...

...which is probably just as well, considering there doesn't appear to be much between most of the field in terms of their pace profile...

Bolster might well lead the way here from stall 3 and Cemhaan might well try to track across from stall 8, but the lack of general pace will play into the hands of the better runners who can just set about their own race and with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that high-drawn mid-division runners fare really well here, that could be useful for Desert Hero...

Summary

This has to be Desert Hero's race to win or lose, hasn't it? I think he's the best in the field, he's also the highest-rated and after finishing third in the St Leger (1m6½f) last year and only beaten by a head in a Group 3 over 1m2f at Sandown recently after a 223 day absence, the return to 1m4f should see him back in the winners' enclosure.

Sadly, we're not getting rich off him at a best price of 11/8 and with Middle Earth and Salt Bay next in the market at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, I agree with the bookies' 1-2-3 today, but I do slightly prefer Salt Bay to Middle Earth. Neither are backable as E/W prospects (but if forecasts/exactas or tricasts/trifectas are you thing, who knows?), so if I was going to pull one from the pack for a small wager, it'd possibly be Bolster at 18/1.

Enjoy your weekend, folks, Wembley beckons for us Bolton boys.

Racing Insights, Friday 17/05/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have generated no runners for me to consider but thankfully, this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.15 York
  • 3.53 Newmarket
  • 4.25 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Newmarket
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.30 Leopardstown

...from which, I'll take a look at the 4.25 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on the good to firm Rowley course...

Iron Lion and true Courage both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three, as has Composite. Most of the field have won at least once in their last five but The Whipmaster and Moktasaab are on losing runs of seven and twelve races respectively whilst Swiss Money has been beaten in all seven UK starts.

It also looks like he's up two classes here, but that's from a hurdles run, his last Flat race was at this level, but Iron Lion, Composite (second handicap run today), The Whipmaster (new trainer licence name, NOT new trainer but does wear first-time tongue-tie) and Moktasaab are all up one class for this one.

Most of the field have raced in the last five weeks, so should be race fit and Moktasaab should also be OK after an eight-week rest, but top-weight Fox Journey might well need a run, having not raced since October 2023. That said, he did win here at Newmarket (1m2f) this time last year on his combeack from a 190-day absence, so maybe 205 days won't be an issue.

He's the only previous course winner in the field and like Iron Lion, Composite, Vaynor and True courage, he has already won over today's trip elsewhere...

Instant Expert doesn't give us too much assistance on the win front today, but it does suggest that The Whipmaster might be up against it having failed at class and distance half a dozen times. Vaynor prefers good ground or an artificial surface, whilst Iron Lion and Fox Journey are both a fair bit higher than their last winning marks. The corresponding place stats from those races above show that both The Whipmaster and True Courage usually go pretty well on good to firm ground...

...but the doubts about the former's ability at this trip remain.

Similar past races here at HQ suggest that stalls 2 to 5 might be the place to be, although there's not a great deal in it...

...and I suspect that race tactics/positioning might be more important today, as those races above show a distinct advantage for those willing to take it on...

...and this is reinforced by the pace/draw heat map...

We already know the draw, so let's look at how these runners normally approach their races to see if there's a pattern...

To be honest, it doesn't look like there's much pace in the race at all and this could lead to a falsely-run affair, which would play into the hands of those who come here in the best form and those who would normally struggle if there's early pace. Vaynor has led a couple of times recently and he's probably going to end up doing so again today, but he wouldn't normally feature too high on my list of 'possibles'

Summary

In card order, I'd be quite surprised if the first three home didn't come from Fox Journey, Iron Lion, Composite and True Courage, from which I think I'd side with the returning Fox Journey. I expect a tight battle, though and of the other three runners, I suspect Iron Lion will offer least value.

I'd no odds available at 3.20pm on Thursday, but I'd hope for 3/1 or bigger about Fox Journey, but I doubt I'll get viable E/W odds about any of the other three.

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Limerick
  • 2.20 Perth
  • 3.05 Limerick
  • 3.15 York
  • 3.30 Salisbury
  • 8.00 Clonmel

...but I'm going to leave those alone and have a look at the highest-rated handicap on the Salisbury card, the 2.30 Salisbury. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on soft ground...

Rathgar is the sole LTO winner on display here (Pawapuri did win her last two on the Flat but has been hurdling lately and was 6th LTO), but Circuit Breaker, Torcello, Duke of Verona and Ellerton all finished third on their last starts. Hurtle Wallop is a three-race maiden but all his rivals bar top-weight Alright Sunshine and Ellerton have at least one win in six; the former is winless in nine and had refused to race in his last two, whilst the latter is on a seven-race losing streak.

Only a third of this field (Alright Sunshine, The Goat, Torcello & Duke of Verona) raced at Class 3 last time around, as Circuit Breaker (on yard debut here), Kyle of Lochalsh and Pawapuri (second handicap start today) all drop from Class 2, whilst LTO winner Rathgar joins Ocean Heights, Ellerton (also on hcp debut today) and bottom-weight Military Tycoon is stepping up from Class 4. Handicap debutant and three-race maiden steps up two classes here, which is interesting if nothing else.

Most of these have had a run in the last two months and Ocean heights should be OK after 75 days rest, as should Pawapuri but at 223 days off since last refusing to run, Alright Sunshine is a negative here. He is, however, one of just five runners along with Kyle of Lochalsh, Rathgar, Duke of Verona and Military Tycoon to have won over this trip and the latter is our sole course and distance winner. Torcello has also won here previously, landing a 1m2f maiden on his only previous visit. That was just his third career start, some 52 races ago back in July 2017 and his more recent relevant form looks (courtesy of Instant Expert) like this...

...where on a fairly sparse looking graphic, it appears that he might relish the conditions. There are3 clearly more negatives than positives above and my main worries from this set of data are the win percentage over this trip for Alright Sunshine, the +15lb for Kyle of Lochalsh from his last Flat win, although he is only 6lbs than his A/W win two starts ago and Duke Of Verona could have done better at Class 3. The place stats say that he only made the frame in one of those five defeats too...

...but Circuit Breaker now enters the party, as does Rathgar to a lesser extent.

Unusually for a race beyond a mile and a half, there does appear to be a slight advantage from the draw with those drawn lower appearing to fare best...

...but I'd tread carefully here. The draw really shouldn't be a massive factor here and the sample size is very small, but the numbers are what the numbers are. It's a little difference with pace, as race tactics are important at all distances and that small number of races above have suited front-runners best of all...

...so if we can find a low-ish drawn front-runner, we might well be onto something. We already know the draw, so if I arrange the field in draw order and show you how they've approached their most recent races...

...we should probably focus on The Goat, Circuit Breaker, Torcello and Pawapuri. Ocean heights and Ellerton are probably hoping to set the pace but they're coming from wide and the former is on turf debut and the latter on UK debut.

Summary

It pains me to end up highlighting a favourite, but I think I like the 11/4 Pawapuri here, although not enough to back her. Those odds are a little short for a horse who hasn't raced on the Flat since landing a Class 5 maiden at Yarmouth in September 2022, even if she did win a heavy ground Listed hurdle at Christmas. So whilst I think Pawapuri might be the best horse on paper, I'm inclined to lean towards Circuit Breaker who comes here in decent form, scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and will be up with the pace.

Circuit Breaker was priced up at 5/1 just after 5pm on Wednesday, which I think is very fair and offers more value than Pawapuri. As for the other two who'll be racing in advanced positions, I'm not over keen on The Goat who has been disappointing for a few runs now, but Torcello might well roll the years back and outrun his 12/1 ticket on his ay to a top four finish as my E/W pick. One other of interest who might come from off the pace is LTO winner Rathgar, who is in good nick and drawn well. He has Pawapuri immediately next door and might well get a tow into the race. If that does happen then 8/1 E/W might begin to look generous.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/05/2024

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.45 York
  • 5.10 Sligo
  • 6.15 Sligo
  • 6.22 Perth
  • 6.40 Bath

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

...from which we should really go to York! However, I'll leave the Musidora (3.45 race) to those better qualified elsewhere on the site and the two Jack Channon horses go in fields of 14 and 22. One of those is pushing my comfort zone boundaries and one is way beyond, so taking the lesser of two evils, I'll go with the 2.15 York, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground...

I actually picked Jack Channon's runner, Flash Bardot as my winner for last Saturday's Racing Insights, but she was withdrawn. She still arrives here as one of just two LTO winners (Crystal Delight being the other) in the field and this sole mare has won three of her last four. Elsewhere Chillingham, Two Brothers and bottom weight Lightening Company were all in the frame, but the latter is winless in nine races and Chillingham has lost eight on the bounce (placed five times, though) since three wins and a place from his first five starts. The rest of the field have all won at least one of their last seven.

Klondike's last run was group 3 race at Newbury, so he's down in class here for his handicap debut, but Flash Bardot, Two brothers and Saratoga Gold all step up from Class 3. Chillingham wears cheekpieces for the first time today and it'll be Percy Shelley's debut in a hood.

Most of the field have had at least one outing since the start of April whilst Track of Time (on handicap debut today) and Oneforthegutter were last seen in January. Marhaba The Champ and top-weight Klondike, however, are returning from respective breaks of 230 days and 270 days, during which they were both gelded and Klondike had wind surgery.

Klondike is one of six yet to win over this trip, along with Track of Time, Westerton, Crystal Delight, Percy Shelley and Lightening Company, whilst of the eight runners to have raced at York before, only Marhaba The Champ, Kihavah and Two Brothers have won here. All three are former course and distance winners and Marhaba The Champ has also scored over 1m2½f here, whilst Kihavah's five efforts over track and trip have finished 16511 and it's two of this trio of CD winners that stand out on Instant Expert...

Track of Time makes a UK debut here and Westerton looks weak (1 from 6) at this grade and is rated some 14lbs higher than his last turf win. Crystal delight has fared better on good ground and standard A/W surfaces. Chillingham's three career wins have been at Classes 3, 4 and 5 and the same applies to Saratoga Gold, whilst Oneforthegutter would prefer it softer and he has struggled in this grade.

The bookies will pay four (some will pay five) places here, so the place stats might be more than useful...

...and if I apply my usual "at least two greens from the first four columns" rule, I'm left with these in draw order...

I've put them in draw order, because I now want to see if past similar races have benefited any particular part of the stalls, so let's check our draw analyser...

...which unsurprisingly (to me, anyway) suggests there's little in it and that's really how it should be. Over a mile and a half, the trip is easily long enough to unwind any potential draw bias and it's more likely to be race tactics and ability that determine the outcome, so with that thought in mind, let's run those 40-odd past races through our pace analyser, which tells us that...

...those who bide their time do best. We log the way horses run in the UK and allocate them 4pts if they led, 3pts for a prominent run, 2pts for those in mid-division and 1pt for a hold-up run, so we're really looking for horses who might run to a score of 2.50 or lower here and based on their last few efforts...

...you could still make a case for all of them. If I then refer back to how the pace has interacted with the draw, there's one combination that stands out...

...directing us to those drawn highest from our shortlisted runners.

Summary

In racecard order, my original thoughts were that I'd be looking at the likes of Klondike, Marhaba The Champ, Crystal Delight and Chillingham and all four remain on my shortlist. With both Klondike and Crystal Delight being drawn high, I'll keep those two for now. Marhaba The Champ and Kihavah were the eyecatchers from the win side of Instant Expert, so the former remains on my list and the latter now joins it, leaving me with Chillingham to consider and whilst I don't see him as a winner here, there's no reason based on his place form why he can't make the frame for the seventh time in nine flat races.

I'm aware that I've ended with five runners that I feel are capable of making the frame and I could easily have added a couple more, but some firms will pay five places, so let's look at the market, as of 4pm Tuesday...

...from here, I'd be inclined to side with Marhaba The Champ as my winner with small E/W plays for Kihavah and Chillingham, as I impose my 8/1 minimum odds rule. That said, Crystal Delight might well drift and become of interest again 😉

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 5.05 Southwell
  • 7.50 Killarney
  • 8.00 Ayr
  • 9.00 Ayr

The above six UK races contain a trio of Class 4 contests, which aside from the Class 3 7.30 Ayr, is as good as it gets in the UK on Tuesday, so I'm taking the most valuable of the three, the 8.00 Ayr for today's column. It's a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good to firm ground with the following line-up...

Bowman won last time out, whilst Kelpie Grey comes here on a hat-trick after winning three of his last four. Archduke Ferdinand was a recent runner-up but the other half dozen all failed to make the frame whilst Orbaan, Prairie Falcon and Bowood are all winless in five or more starts : 17, 9 and 13 to be precise with Bowood yet to win any race.

His cause is unlikely to be helped by stepping up a level here, as do Ahamoment and the fast-finishing Bowman. Yaaser is also marked as a fast-finisher, form horse Kelpie Grey is up two classes here and out of sorts Prairie Falcon is now blinkered for the first time.

Bowood might also need a run after a 99-day absence, whilst Yaaser and Judgment Call now both run for the first time since October. Bowood is the only maiden in the race and all of his eight rivals have already won over this trip before now. Prairie Falcon has also won here at Ayr, but over 6f, whilst Kelpie Grey, Judgment Call, Yaaser and Ahamoment have all won over course and distance...

As is often the case with INSTANT EXPERT, if there's no standout candidate on the win data it can still help you highlight those who might struggle under the prevalent conditions and here I have doubts about the win prospects of Yaaser (class), Judgment Call (track) and both Orbaan & Archduke Ferdinand (trip). Most of those with a relatively recent win are rated 5 to 8lbs more than their last win, but Orbaan's mark has plummeted during his poor run of rom and I'm not convinced it has bottomed out.

A poor win return on Instant Expert doesn't necessarily mean the horse has consistently run poorly, though, he could have been unlucky or had ran well, but just not quite well enough and that's why we also have the place data from the same races...

The old adage says that you have to be in it to win it and if you're not making the frame, you're not going on to win, so I need to start whittling some of these out of contention. Field size doesn't really worry me too much, but I do like runners to have green for at least two of going, class, track and trip, so from here Kelpie grey, Yaaser, Prairie Falcon and Ahamoment are my take-aways.

I don't think there's a huge draw bias at play here at Ayr over 7f  to a mile, even if those drawn more centrally haven't quite achieved the par number of wins expected...

...the fact that they've made the frame more often than runners either side suggests they've ran just as well if not better overall, so I'm not reading too much into the raw data above just now. Pace, however, is a different kettle of fish. Those keen to get on with things are rewarded here...

...with leaders faring just marginally better than those chasing prominently. And if we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...then first four on that list are probably the ones best suited to Ayr and if Kelpie Grey does take it on early from stall 2, then the pace/draw heat map says he has a great chance of completing a hat-trick...

Summary

It's Kelpie Grey for me (and probably many others!), he's in form, scored as well as any of the others on Instant Expert, should be suited by the pace of the race and has the ideal pace/draw make-up for this type of race.

After him, you can make cases for a few to chase him home, but not with great conviction if truth be told, which does strengthen my thought about him winning again.

I did like Yaaser until I saw he was a hold-up type, but there aren't many standing out for me. Perhaps Ahamoment might be the E/W play here, should odds permit? He also scored well enough on IE across the board and led last time out.

Quick odds check at 4.35pm Monday showed Kelpie Grey at a best of 5/2 (fav) with Bet365 with Ahamoment a generally available 12/1. he was well beaten by Kelpie Grey last time out, but does have three wins (inc one at CD) and a place from his last seven and another placed finish might not be too outrageous.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 13/05/24

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Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 3.47 Catterick
  • 4.55 Roscommon
  • 5.35 Windsor
  • 5.55 Roscommon
  • 6.40 Killarney

Regular readers will know that I rarely get involved with Irish racing, which takes away three of the five races above for me, but each to their own of course! And if I'm honest, I'm not really too interested in the two UK races above either, so I'm just going to look at the highest-rated race in the UK, the 6.35 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

My initial thoughts before diving in were that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad, but let's see what the data tells us...

Leap Abroad won last time out, sixteen days ago and Laoisman completed a hat-trick five weeks ago, as he returned from 195 days off the track, so he has come back fresh. We've no other LTO winners, but both Katey Kontent and Coup de Force were runners-up on their last runs, but Katey Knotent is actually the only one in this field without at least one win in their last six outings, having been beaten in all seven starts (albeit narrowly in her last two) since winning her first two starts back in May 2022.

Her cause might not be helped by a 1lb and 1 class rise here today, but she's not alone in stepping up as Laosman, Leap Abroad and Coup de Force all make the same move from Class 4, whilst bottom-weight Lady Dreamer is up two classes here. Moving down in class are top-weight Executive Decision and Dusky Lord, who drop from Class 2 action, but both might be in need of a run after breaks of 203 and 220 days respectively; this might also apply to Katey Kontent (221 days) and Coup de Force (202 days).

Aside from the four runners above who haven't raced since last October, the other half-dozen have all had at least one run since the start of April. The trip should be fine for most of these, as only Rhythm n Hooves and Katey Kontent have yet to win at this distance and both Indian Creak and Lady Dreamer have achieved the feat here at Windsor in August '23 and July '23 respectively. Katey Kontent's form over 6f is improving and reads 432, but she has won over 5f here at Windsor, back in May 2022 on what was just her second outing...

Instant Expert probably helps us put red marks against runners rather than green ticks today, as Indian Creak and to lesser extent, Coup de Force, look unsuited by the going, whilst Indian Creak's win record at Class 3 is lamentable with his 6 from 42 at the trip hardly setting the world alight. Lady Dreamer has struggled to win at this trip, too, with just one win from eight. That said, she has made the frame in four of her seven defeats...

Indian Creak still looks weak, though and whilst I'm unsure of many of these from a win perspective, you could make a case for most of them to make the frame over a track and trip that has rewarded low-drawn runners most in terms of wins, but has offered more opportunities to make the frame from those drawn highest...

...but the big thing here at Windsor is pace, which fits in nicely with today's free feature. If truth be told, the draw bias above isn't massive but if we look at how those 110+ races above were won...

...it's pretty clear what the optimum tactics would be and this means we're looking for the horses with high pace scores. For those unsure how this works (it's in the user guide better than I'll explain!) we look at every race in the UK and award a score of 4 to a horse that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for those who raced in mid-division and 1 for a hold-up horse. It's not an exact timed science, but it really does help us to see who might well set the pace.

Our field's last four runs look like this...

...with Leap Around the likely front-runner ahead of Lady Dreamer, Indian Creak and Laoisman, whilst both Kiwano and Katey Kontent arrive here on the back of three hold-up runs and if that's repeated here, they'll find it hard to win, I'd have thought.

Summary

I started off by suggesting that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Katey Kontent, Laoisman and Leap Abroad. After everything I've written/read, I'm still pretty keen on two of them, but I can't warm to Katey Kontent right now. She's on a losing run, but on a rising mark and up in class. She's likely to need a run after a lay-off and shouldn't be suited here from a pace perspective.

If I follow my daily processes as above, she's a definite no (watch her now romp home at 6/1!) but I'm sticking with Laoisman and Leap Abroad and I've got them in that order too.

For a third horse to make the frame, I want to be on a horse with a recent run, so not Coup de Force, Executive Decision nor Dusky Lord. Of the four remaining options, I'm inclined to side with Lady Dreamer, who has an excellent place record under today's conditions. She won her last start of 2023 and clearly needed a run last time out, she's a course and distance winner, she gets weight all round and runs off a mark lower than her last win.

No odds available at 3.30pm on Sunday afternoon, but an average of the tissues provided by Oddschecker, Timeform & Racing Post has Laoisman at 10/3, Leap Around at 4.11/1 (37/9 anyone?) and Lady Dreamer at 14.67 (44/3) respectively, so there might well be an E/W bet in the offing.

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following for me to consider...


...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 2.45 Haydock
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 4.35 Hexham
  • 5.45 Hexham

Of all those races above, the Class 1 Swinton handicap hurdle (3.15 Haydock) is the highest-rated, but the 1.50 Lingfield, the 4.20 Ascot and the 4.35 Hexham from the 'free' list also have runners on my TJC Report and from this trio of races, I'm going to focus upon the highest-rated, which is the 1.50 Lingfield. It's a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m3f and 133yds on good ground and here's the line-up...

Flash Bardot has won three of her last four and along with Aimeric (2 from 5 and 3 from 6) arrive here on the back of wins last time out, but the former is turned back out quickest just a fortnight after winning at Doncaster on her return from a six-month break. Aimeric, on the other hand, has been off the track 252 days, which is longer than any other runner in this field and he could need the run here.

In fact, aside from Flash Bardot, Peking Opera (21 days) and Base Note (43 days), the rest of the field are all returning from lay-offs after finishing outside of the frame on their last outings.

Yard & UK debutant Kolossal and Peking Opera both make handicap debuts here and the latter will also wear blinkers for the first time, as he drops in class after a couple of unsuccessful Class 1 outings. Track of Time is another handicap debutant on his first UK run, If Not Now has been gelded whilst away from the track and Flash Bardot steps up a class.

None of the field have even raced on this track before, but all bar Peking Opera, If Not Now and Track of Time have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

INSTANT EXPERT...

True Legend, Aimeric and Global Heat have the best good ground records and Aimeric is probably the pick of the bunch off an admittedly fairly sparse amount of data. Flash Bardot is proven at the trip, as is True Legend and these are probably the four standouts from this piece of analysis, although Global Heat and True Legend do run off far higher marks than their last turf successes.

DRAW...

The inference here (to me, at lest) is that you'd ideally be berthed relatively centrally to high in stalls 3 to 7, perhaps? Runners in stall 1 have seemed to struggle, winning just one of the twenty-eight races, which isn't great news for Kolossal on his first run in the UK, but followers of Aimeric & Flash Bardot amongst others will be buoyed by the draw.

PACE...

Essentially, you don't really want to be on a hold-up type here at Lingfield, but that doesn't mean they can't win, it just makes life more difficult, That said, if those drawn centrally take the race on, then it might be wise for those either side to just drop in behind and wait for the right moment to attack. The field's most recent UK outings...

...suggest that Aimeric might have to pass all his rivals if he's going to win this, although several of them have raced in the rear of late. One thing I'm fairly sure of is that Global Heat will attempt to force the pace here.

Summary

The names that keep cropping up during the analysis are Flash Bardot, Aimeric and True Legend and as of 3.20pm on Friday, they were trading at 6/1 (Coral), 9/4 (Bet365 & Coral) and 11/2 (Bet365) respectively at the head of the market and at those odds, Flash Bardot is the one that interests me most. She's had a recent run, she's in good form and is drawn well.

Aimeric looks too short at 9/4 after a long lay-off and his running style might cause him a problem, although he's certainly good enough to prove me wrong, whilst True Legend might also need the run.

Global Heat (16/1 gen) and Base Note (14/1 gen) both featured fairly prominently in the analysis above and whilst unlikely winners here  both could easily outrun those odds and make the frame. Base Note has had the benefit of a comeback run six weeks ago so might just be the better option of the two if you fancied a longer-odds punt.

Racing Insights, Friday 10/05/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.05 Chester
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 5.10 Ascot
  • 5.27 Nottingham
  • 6.55 Sedgefield
  • 7.15 Ripon

The highest-rated of all those races above is the Huxley Stakes, aka the 3.05 Chester, a 9-runner, 4yo+, Group 2 Flat contest over a left-handed 1m2f (+70yds) on good ground...

Hans Andersen, Passenger and Sunchart all won their last races and Israr finished third a fortnight ago. Regal Reality comes here on the longest losing run, but even he won six races ago.

All bar Oviedo raced at Class 1 last time and he now steps up in class as he runs for the first time since being gelded; Mashhoor will be in first-time cheekpieces. Oviedo might also be in need of a run, having been off the track since the Cambridgeshire at the end of September last year.

Fellow returner Royal Rhyme has been off for 202 days, whilst Passenger hasn't been seen since his Group 3 win at Windsor last August. The other half dozen have all raced in the last two to seven weeks with Israr turned back out quickest just a fortnight after coming within a length of landing a Group 3 at Sandown off the back of a 202-day lay-off. (I also covered that race here and my 1-2-3 finished 1-3-2).

All bar Hans Andersen have won over a similar trip to this one, but none of the field have won here at Chester before according to Instant Expert. Mind you only two of them have raced here in a total of three appearances...

Certain Lad and Sunchart look up against it based on past relevant runs and Sunchart has been extensively tried at Class 1 without too many wins of late, even if he did win a Listed race at Naas last time out. That was on heavy ground and this should be too quick for him (he's 2/9 on soft/heavy and heavy and 0/22 on anything better!). Oviedo also looks weak and if we add his record above to the expected rustiness and the step up in class, there's not much going his way here, so that's three runners I'm happy to overlook already.

In a race of this status, I'd expect the place stats from above to have a lot of green about it, so when I see this...

...I'm also switched off about Regal Reality's chances and if we omit him here, I'm left with runners in stalls 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8...

This isn't a handicap, of course, so all runners carry equal weight, which technically makes Israr a pound better off that Royal Rhyme and a full 9lbs better than Hans Andersen. There's an old adage that you need to be drawn low on the ever-turning oval here at Chester, but this week's results suggest that might not necessarily be the case, but the historical data for a race like this says...


...that anywhere in the first five stalls could be considered advantageous, which suits the three highest-rated runners (Israr, Royal Rhyme & Passenger) more than the other two drawn wider, but it's not all about the draw here at Chester. The tactical side of things is really important and the data from those races above suggest that a quick start is needed with those prepared to set the pace faring decidedly better than those who don't...

...as it's all very well getting drawn in stall 1, but if you're not first to the turn, you run the risk of getting 'cut-up' by the faster horses coming from wider. If we then look at how our field might set out, based on their more recent outings...

...I'd say that Mashhoor and Royal Rhyme from my final five were better suited by the pace profile of 1m2f at Chester. Israr is going to have work hard late on, although he did race prominently a fortnight ago and Passenger will have even more to do from the back and I'm concerned about his fitness after the lay-off

Summary

Based on what I've written above, what I've see from racecourses and my own personal opinions/ratings, my three to beat here are (alphabetically) Israr, Passenger and Royal Rhyme.

I think that Passenger is probably the best of three, but might need a run after being off track for so long and he probably won't be suited by the pace of the race. I've no doubts that I'll be backing him to win a Group 2 race 9or better) in the future, but at the current (6.55pm Thursday) odds of 9/4, I think I'll pass on that.

Having had that recent run, Israr shades it for me here today, but his 11/4 odds aren't particularly exciting if truth be told, but it is what it is. As for Royal Rhyme, I suspect/hope he gives the pair of them a real good run for their money and if he drifts much from his 6/1 ticket, then he'd be a real E/W possibility for me. Perhaps front-running Regal Reality might outrun his 14/1 odds and make the frame?

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 Huntingdon
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 3.18 Brighton
  • 6.40 Tipperary
  • 7.10 Tipperary
  • 9.00 Chelmsford

I fancy looking at some Flat/AW action today, but the Chester race above only has five runners and the Brighton race looks a poor quality affair full of inexperienced runners, so let's head to Essex for some late evening all-weather action and the 9.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

My initial thoughts were that this might well end up being a battle between stablemates Conquest of Power and Heerathetrack, who'll make the 250-mile round trip from Mark Usher's yard in Lambourn along with Q Twenty Boy who goes in the 6.30 race.

Conquest of Power is one of two (Thomas Equinas in the other) LTO winners in the field and Thomas Equinas has won three of his last four. Annie Law won her penultimate race, as did Poetic Jack, whilst Heerathetrack and Alexander James were both in the frame last time out. The latter, however, joins Golden Passport as having no win in six, having been beaten in 14 races on the bounce; Golden Passport has lost ten in a row.

He drops in class today (as does Harry The Haggler) and hasn't raced for two months, but that break won't be the reason he doesn't win here today, although the lay-offs for Poetic Jack (154 days), Annie Law (176 days) and Thomas Equinas (217 days) might be an issue here.

Alexander James is the only runner without a win at this trip and all runners here bar him, Golden Passport, Annie Law and Harry The Haggler are course and distance winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which has Thomas Equinas as the eyecatcher with a decent set of numbers and he's only 4lbs higher than his last win, but it has been seven months since that run/win here over course and distance. Conquest of Power's record at Class 6 isn't great at 1 from 8, but the win was last time out and he has already won at both Class 4 and Class 5. His record here doesn't look good either, but I believe that he has been a regular placer; we'll check that in a moment!

Alexander James looks particularly vulnerable here on his 14-race losing streak and it's probably fair to assume that he'll join Golden Passport in being excluded from my thoughts, even if the following place data shows him in a better light...

...which it doesn't to be honest. Just 4 places from 17 on standard going simply isn't enough. On a brighter note, my thoughts about Conquest of Power being a regular placer were spot on and Harry the Haggler also looks like an E/W or place prospect with Thomas Equinas still leading the way.

Thomas Equinas has been drawn plumb centre of the stalls with Heerathetrack taking stall 1 and King of Ithaca out in box nine, but if we look back at similar races since the start of 2020, our draw analyser suggests that stall position wouldn't be a significant factor in a horse's chances of winning this race...

...although the lower the draw, the slightly better the chance (+13% low over high) of making the frame, which is good news for Heerathetrack, who normally tends to race in the middle of the pack and has done so in each of his last four outings...

...with Golden Passport looking the likely back marker. There's no out and out front runner in this field, although Harry The Haggler did set the pace two starts ago and Poetic Jack lad for 6 of the 7 furlongs last time out, but wilted away to 8th of 9 and a 7-length defeat, so I wouldn't expect similar tactics from him. To be honest, I wouldn't be too surprised if Conquest of Power and course specialist Thomas Equinas didn't take it on between them.

Summary

Chelmsford really suits those willing to set the tempo of the race and both Conquest of Power and Thomas Equinas look capable of doing this and both arrive here on the back of a winning run last time out, albeit seven months ago in Thomas' case. His last three runs here have seen him win over course and distance twice either side of a win over a mile, so he's clearly the one to beat in this track when fit, but the lack of a run just tips the balance back towards Conquest of Power for me.

Conquest of Power would be my idea of a winner here, but I can see Thomas Equinas also making the frame. I'm not as sold on Heerathetrack as I thought I might be, but he still stands a decent chance of making the frame, as does Harry The Haggler.

The early (3.20pm Wednesday) bet365 market agrees with me about Conquest of Power (sadly)...

...but it does have Thomas Equinas as borderline E/W territory, depending on your personal odds cut-off point for E/W bets. I know Alexander James ran pretty well when finishing third over course and distance last time out, but hold-up horses have a poor record here and he has lost his last fourteen races, making the frame just twice. I might be missing something, but he wouldn't anywhere near second favourite in my book; I'd probably only have Annie Law, Golden Passport and Poetic Jack behind him.

We'll see! 😉

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/05/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have actually highlighted quite a list of qualifiers...

...for me to consider. In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Chester
  • 3.05 Chester
  • 5.50 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Fontwell

...giving me a grand total of ten separate UK races to choose from and I did fancy a switch away from the jumps, but none of the four Flat/AW contests appealed to me from the angle of having to write a column, so we're heading North to look at Fergal O'Brien's 6yr old mare Politacus from above, as she tackles the 3.45 Kelso, a 12-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground...

Lily du Berlais and Strong Belle both won last time out after finishing second on their previous outings, but after two wins on the bounce, featured runner Politacus comes here on a hat-trick. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Shakeyatailfeather and Brendas Asking are both 6-race maidens, whilst Spit Spot has lost her last eleven outings and Mary has yet to get off the mark after eight attempts!

Spit Spot and Brendas Asking's bids to finally land a win are unlikely to be aided by stepping up two classes from their last run, whilst Politacus, Mighty Moth and Linda Moon all make the same double class rise here. Lily du Berlais, Strong Belle and Shakeyatailfeather are all up one level today but Mick's Jet and bottom-weight Dame ofthecotwolds both raced at Class 1 three weeks ago with the latter a runner-up beaten by just a neck at Cheltenham.

This will the Dame's second run in a handicap, as it will for Brendas Asking, Linda Moon and Mighty Moth, whilst Lily du Berlais, Mick's Jet, Strong Belle and Shakeyatailfeather all make their handicap debuts here. Linda Moon is in a first time tongue-tie and Politacus will sport cheekpieces for the first time.

All twelve have raced at least once in the last ten weeks so there should be no fitness worries for a field that hasn't won a race between them here at Kelso (mind you, they are only 0 from 2!), but the top six on the card have all at least won over this type of trip, although Instant Expert says they haven't won very many races at all...

...so we might find that the place data is of more value to us today...

Lily du Berlais is certainly proven at the trip already and most of them have a reasonable enough place record over this distance. The truth is that they're a relatively inexperienced bunch; Spit Spot has had twenty races (just 2 wins!, but the other nine have only been on a track 85 times between them and of the field's 16 from 105 (15.24%) strike rate, Lily du Berlais and Politacus account for 5 wins from 19 (26.32%) and although the latter prefers the ground a bit softer, I wouldn't rule her out just yet.

Previous similar races here at Kelso have pretty much gone with the racing position adopted by the runners, with leaders proving the most successful...

...which based on recent outings, would appear to suit the top handful of runners on this graphic the most...

Summary

From a recent form perspective, Lily du Berlais, Strong Belle and featured runner Politacus would appear to be the ones to keep an eye out for and Lily du Berlais definitely seemed the one to beat at this trip, according to Instant Expert.

Politacus and Lily du Berlais have the best strike rates in the field and the former just about made the top-five on average pace score. Lily du Berlais didn't quite make it, but did race prominently last time out when winning very comfortably at Ayr. Politacus would probably prefer the ground to be a little softer, but I don't see the ground preventing her from making the frame, although I suspect she'll have to play second fiddle to Lily du Berlais today with Strong Belle also a leading contender for the places.

Early dart for me today (football play-offs again!), so no odds available at 3pm, but my 1-2-3 would be Lily du Berlais - Politacus - Strong Belle. I might add an E/W possible (if none of these three trade at 8/1+) when I see the market, as some firms are paying four places on this one.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where all four must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.05 Navan
  • 4.35 Navan
  • 4.42 Southwell
  • 5.20 Ballinrobe
  • 8.12 Southwell

Aside from one class 3 contest at Fakenham, Class 4 is about as 'good' as it gets in the UK for Tuesday, so let's focus on a pair of runners from The Shortlist, who'll take each other plus nine more on in the 7.00 Hereford, a 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a trip just 73 yards short of two and a half miles on good ground...

My Chiquita has won each of her last two over hurdles and Big Blue Moon won last time out. Notnowlinda and Soldierofthestorm both won their penultimate races, whilst all bar Sacchoandvanzetti (17 losses on the bounce) have won at least once in their last six.

Sacchoandvanzetti's cause isn't helped by stepping up two classes here, but Notnowlinda, Silver Shade and Just Go For It all drop two classes. My Chiquita moves up one grade and Just Loose Change drops one.

It's handicap debut day for Soldat Force and My Chiquita and a second crack for both Cabhfuilfungi and Silver Shade with the latter also making a yard debut, as does Soldierofthestorm.

Most of the field have raced in the last ten weeks, but Just Loose Change, Soldat Forte and Silver Shade might well need the run after breaks of four months, ten months and nineteen months respectively.

Soldierofthestorm's win here two starts ago on Valentine's Day is this field's only course and distance success, although My Chiquita, Just Loose Change, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go For It have all previously won over a similar trip and Just Go For It (2m6f hurdle) has also won here at Hereford before, as has Notnowlinda (2m½f hurdle)...

Instant Expert (above) shows My Chiquita and Soldierofthestorm as ones to note, just as you'd expect from their position on TS (quick note, that The Shortlist and Instant Expert might look alike, but they do work off different parameters as per the user guide), whilst Notnowlinda, Throne Hall, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go for It also have some decent win percentages under these conditions.

Since 2010 in similar races here at Hereford, only one front-runner has managed to win...

...with those racing prominently just in behind faring best of all. If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

I'd say that Soldat Forte is the most likely front-runner and the one with the target on his back for later on.

Summary

Soldat Forte is the likely front-runner and they tend to get caught here at Hereford and the fact that he hasn't raced for ten months increases that likelihood. I'm also against Silver Shade based on his lengthy lay-off and even Just Loose Change might be a bit rusty.

Sacchoandvanzetti is bang out of form and up two classes, whilst Throne Hall has yet to win at either track or trip, so I'm now left with My Chiquita, Notnowlinda, Soldierofthestorm, Cabhfuilfungi, Big Blue Moon and Just Go For It. The latter is likely to want rain to come, as he'd prefer some cut in the ground and Cabhfuilfungi has the lowest win percentage of the six, so those two are the most vulnerable here.

You could then make a case for any of the four that are left from a place perspective, but the one I'd want to be on for win purposes would be My Chiquita and I'd expect Notnowlinda to give her the most trouble.

Unfortunately the market also likes My Chiquita and has installed her as the 10/3 favourite (as of 4.35pm Monday) with Notnowlinda an 11/2 chance. Another of my final four, Big Blue Moon sits between them in the market, but Soldierofthestorm looks big at 12/1 and would be the E/W suggestion here.

Racing Insights, Monday 06/05/2024

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 2.35 Windsor
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 4.45 Curragh

In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in either of the two UK races there, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 4.05 Kempton, which is the highest-rated UK race that I'd consider covering! It's an 8-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over a right-handed three miles on good ground...

Neon Moon won last time out, as did top-weight Quick Draw who has four wins and a place from his last seven outings. Karl Philippe and Unanswered Prayers were both placed third on their latest runs, but both are winless in seven (or more) races, as is Killer Kane.

Half of the field ran at this Class 3 level last time out, but Galahad Quest (now running for the first-time since a wind op) and Magna Sam both drop from Class 2, whilst Our Jet ran at Grade 2 and Killer Kane ran in a Class 1 handicap.

Most of these have raced in the last two to six weeks or so, but Quick Draw and Magna Sam have both been rested for three months, but that shouldn't pose any issues here.

Quick Draw (2m4½f chase) and Our Jet (2m5f chase) are both former Kempton winners, whilst Killer Kane is two from three over fences at 3m½f here. Quick Draw has also won over a similar trip elsewhere before, as have Neon Moon and Magna Sam. Karl Philippe, Galahad Quest and Unanswered Prayers have yet to score over track or trip...

...with recent relevant form suggesting our winner might well come from Quick Draw, Karl Phillipe, Our Jet and/or Galahad Quest, whilst Neon Moon has made the frame in half of his eight efforts over this trip...

Our Pace Analyser suggests that horses prepared to set the tempo of the race from the front did best of all in similar past races...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts could lead you to thinking that would suit Unanswered Prayers, Our Jet, Quick Draw, Galahad Quest and Karl Philippe...

Summary

The horse ticking most boxes for me from the above data is Quick Draw, he brings the best form to the table, his trainer and jockey are both in good nick and both have good records here at Kempton. The horse has won here before and has scored at this trip. He's 3 from 4 in this grade and does like to lead when necessary. Sadly, he's the 5/2 favourite with bet365 (at 6.40pm Sunday), but that's probably about the right price.

Elsewhere I can make cases for (alphabetically) Galahad Quest, Karl Philippe, Neon Moon and Our Jet and I'd probably suggest that Our Jet and Karl Philippe would be the better pair to chase the pick home and with Our Jet currently available at 11/1, he might be a nice E/W option.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 03/05/24

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Apologies for the lack of a preview for Friday's racing. It sounds a little far-fetched, but I'm away from home right now and the dog ate my homework broke my laptop! I've managed to borrow one for today with a view to getting a replacement at the weekend, but that's not what you've come here to read, is it?

So, let's crack on. Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.50 Goodwood
  • 4.10 Newmarket
  • 4.30 Musselburgh
  • 5.10 Cheltenham
  • 7.05 Punchestown

...from which I think I'll take a look at Many A Star and the 3.15 Goodwood from the H4C report. The race is a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on heavy ground that will be softer in places...

Hat-trick seeking Bishop's Crown is the only LTO winner in the field, but Many A Star has finished 112 in his last three starts. Baldomero has been placed in each of his last two and sole mare Alcazan was third on her last run. Spanish Star, Baldomero and Dayman are the only ones without at least one win from their last five outings, having been beaten in 7, 31 and 12 respectively.

Dayman's chances of breaking that cold spell won't be helped by stepping up two classes here, though, whilst Many A Star, Live In The Moment, Bishop's Crown and Alcazan are all up one level with fast finisher Baldomero our only class dropper. Live In The Moment is also returning from 197 days off the track and runs against a field who've all had a run in the last 18 days.

Baldomero and Dayman are yet to win over this trip, but Spanish Star, Gisburn, Many A Star, Live In The Moment and Alcazan are all former course and distance winners, whilst Indian Creak has won here over 7f. That said, he is 0 from 11 over course and distance!

So we've not much heavy ground form, which is a shame as the going can be a big factor when it gets heavy. Indian Creak's record at class/track are a big worry from a win perspective but I'm generally getting more from the place stats and they're telling me to focus on the top four in the weights plus Bishop's Crown giving me runners in stalls 1 and 6-9, so I'm hoping that if there is a draw bias here, it favours those drawn highest!

Sadly, that's no the case, as it would appear that stalls 1 to 4 are the place to be, so that's advantage Gisburn from my quintet...

If we then look at how those races above were won, we find that there's not a huge pace bias at all, but those racing furthest forward have done better than those in behind...

...and this is how our field have approached their last few races...

...suggesting that Indian Creak, Many A Star, Alcazan and Live In the Moment are the likely pace-setters.

Summary

From recent form, Instant Expert, draw and pace, the two runners that keep cropping up are featured runner Many A Star (who has finished 31231 in five starts over course and distance) and low-drawn Gisburn.

Based on the odds available at 3.30pm on Thursday, I'd be inclined to take the 11/2 about Many A Star and also look at  Gisburn as an E/W option at 8/1, both with bet365.

Please note, I'm not here on Friday afternoon/evening (EFL play-offs), so that's Racing Insights signing off for the Bank Holiday weekend, hope you have a good one!

 

 

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