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Racing Insights, Monday 15/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.50 Windsor
  • 3.42 Redcar
  • 4.20 Windsor
  • 6.30 Kempton

from which, I'm going to look at the 3.42 Redcar, a Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft/heavy ground. It's my first foray into the 2024 Flat campaign, so fingers crossed as I go through this card...

The top two on the card, Noble Order and Look Back Smiling both won last out with the the latter now on a hat-trick, whilst the former has won two of his last three. Of the remainder, only Shaladar and Titian are winless in six, having been beaten in their last twelve and eleven races respectively.

Shaladar is denoted as being a fast finisher (clearly not fast enough!) and he does have the benefit of having raced in this grade last time out, as do Legend of Leros and Ron O with the other seven all moving one class. Noble Order steps up from a win at Class 4, but Look Back Smiling, Pisanello, Spirit Genie, Spirit Genie, Thunder Roar, Titian and Clear Angel all drop down from Class 2.

After breaks of 117, 152 and 185 days respectively, you could say that Legend of Leros, Shaladar and Pisanello might be in need of a run and Legend of Leros was gelded during his break and now sports a tongue tie for the first time.

Legend of Leros is also one of three runners (along with Spirit Genie and Thunder Roar) yet to win over this trip, whilst Ron O is the only previous Redcar (and counrse and distance) winner in the field...

There's not a lot to write home about from Instant Expert above, but Thunder Roar should appreciate the underfoot conditions and he does come here off the back of an excellent season-opener in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, where he was only half a length behind Look Back Smiling (and is a pound better off here). Pisanello has struggle to win Class 3 races on turf (1 from 9). Ron O loves the mile track here at Redcar, where he is 2 from 3, but his overall profile is erratic and unreliable.

A quick look at the place stats only really serves to put another cross by the name of Legend of Leros...

...so we'll move swiftly to the data we have on draw and today's feature, pace.

It's not the biggest sample size I've ever worked with, but the data from past races here at Redcar show that horses drawn lowest have fared best over straight races...

...and if we look at the pace profile of those races, we see that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place...

...but the other three running styles have gone well enough with those just in behind the leader(s) doing best of all. The combined pace/draw heat map goes on to suggest that low-drawn runners who race in mid-division are the ones to beat...

...closely followed by low-drawn prominence, low-drawn leaders and mid-drawn prominent runners.

We already know our draw...

...and we can look back on the field's last few races to make an educated guess as to how they'll run today...

...giving us this...

Summary

Titian, Noble Order, Legend of Leros and Thunder Roar look the most likely from our pace/draw heat map, but Titian was only 14th of 18 in the Spring Mile where Look Back smiling and Thunder Roar finished 1-2. I don't see him making up over 16 lengths on that pair today, so he's a no from me; as was Legend of Leros from an early stage of my analysis.

We didn't glean much from Instant Expert today, but we did learn that Thunder Roar should love the underfoot conditions, coming here with a soft/heavy record reading 213112. He's also in good nick with two wins and two places from his last four outings and an overall 70% place record on turf. He's a pound better off with his LTO victor, Look Back Smiling, today and that must give him a great shout here. Whether he reverses the placings is unclear, but either way, I suspect that this pair will both have to play second fiddle to Noble Order, who defied a 15-month absence to win cosily back in February.

That said, Noble Order's a bit shorter than I hoped he might be, so I'd probably suggest that E/W plays on Look Back Smiling and/or Thunder Roar would be the play today, based the odds offered at 6.45pm Sunday.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.55 Newcastle
  • 1.05 Chelmsford
  • 1.30 Newcastle
  • 3.05 Aintree
  • 6.10 Wolverhampton
  • 7.20 Dundalk

...gives me a grand total of thirteen races to cover, including two Class 1 contests from the Grand National meeting. It'd be rude of me not to cover one of those (even if others more qualified to do so will be doing elsewhere on Geegeez) and if I'm going to do one, I might as well do the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle! It's on your cards as the 3.05 Aintree and 12 runners (4yo+) will tackle 13 hurdles over a left-handed trip of 3m 154yds on soft ground in the aim of winning £140k...

Botox Has, Hewick and Hiddenvalley Lake all won last time out, whilst Flooring Porter was second only to Teahupoo in the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in a race featuring five of this field. Strong Leader was also in the frame on his last run, but is the only runner here not to win any of his last five starts.

All twelve raced in Class 1 races last time around and most have raced at least once in the last two months, but Champ & Strong Leader haven't been seen for eleven weeks, Hewick's last outing was his win in the King George on Boxing Day, whilst Proschema hasn't re-emerged since being pulled up before three out in this very race last year.

That race was won by Sire du Berlais, as it was in 2022 so the Elliott/Walsh Trainer/Jockey Combo will be seeking a hat-trick today and this triple Grade 1 12yo comes here off the back of a fine run at HQ. Champ has also won over this course and distance, whilst Crambo, Dashel Drasher, Proschema and Strong Leader have all also scored on this track, but the latter is the only runner here without a win over a similar trip...

...whilst Buddy One, Dashel Drasher, Proschema and Strong Leader have found top-level race wins hard to come by. Sire du Berlais' back to back wins in this race are reflected in the track stats and Flooring Porter has an excellent record over this type of trip. At first glance, Monkfish would be of interest, but he struggled in the Gold Cup last time out and wa susbsequently found to have bled, so I'd not be too keen on backing him here.

If truth be told, our pace analyser doesn't have much data for today's expected race conditions...

...but does seemingly suggest that a runner willing to take the race on would be of interest, which is good news for the likes of Flooring Porter...

...amongst a group who like to race prominently. Sire du Berlais, however, has taken to racing in the rear of late and this might prove his undoing (as well as his age etc) in his bid for a third successive win.

Summary

For me, this is Flooring Porter's race to win/lose. Second only to Teahupoo last time out, he looks set to control the tempo of the race from the front here and I think his current (3.15pm Friday) 7/2 odds look more than fair.

As for the places (and bookies will pay four here), I'd want at least 8/1 about a horse to make me interested, so let's look at the market...

To be honest, the first four in the odds could very well be the first four home, but it rarely works out that way. I don't rate Champ or Proschema's chances so if I was to take an E/W punt on one (or more) of...

...I think I'd probably put Botox Has ahead of Buddy One and Dashel Drasher. Strong Leader and Hewick are a little short at 9's and 11's for me, whilst Monkfish's run at the Gold Cup puts me off.

Racing insights, Friday 12/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Leicester
  • 2.33 Fakenham
  • 4.05 Aintree
  • 5.00 Leicester
  • 5.40 Dundalk

There's no UK racing better than Class 4 away from Aintree, I'm afraid and I'm loathe to tackle our free offering from Liverpool, as 24-runner handicaps really aren't my bag, so next best for us is the 2.33 Fakenham, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m5f on good ground...

Despite only five set to race, this actually looks a pretty competitive contest for a Class 4 chase away from the main meeting of the day, so let's have a look at the the runners...

SCENE ONE is two from five over fences, having won here over course and distance on chase debut five months ago. He won again at Market Rasen in January, but now looks in the grip of the assessor. He wore blinkers for the first time 3 weeks ago (4th of 8 at Newbury) and they're in place again here.

JACKS TOUCH is proving to be a better chaser (3 wins from 7) than he was over hurdles (0 from 6) and was a course and distance winner here just before Christmas. Ran poorly last time out (3 weeks ago) when pulled up at Ascot, but a bit too soon to write him off yet.

DO NO WRONG has won three of his last six over fences and comes here on a hat-trick after back to back three mile successes at Uttoxeter, albeit in the summer of 2023. Hasn't been seen for seven months, though, but if race ready would possibly be the one to beat today.

JIGGINSTOWN KING came to life around this time last year finishing 211 in April/May, including a course and distance success. He then completed his hat-trick after a 19-week break but struggled in two subsequent outings. He hasn't raced since Boxing Day and has had a wind operation during the lay-off, so he might be one to watch in a race or two's time.

INGENNIO absolutely trotted up to win here over course and distance at the start of the month, pulling 39 lengths clear in a seller that somewhat fell apart around the halfway mark. It's tough to analyse him on that performance alone, as this looks a much stronger race and he's now up 4lbs.

Instant Expert also confirms the competitiveness of this race, with all runners seemingly well suited to the predicted race conditions...

All five have, of course, scored over this trip. Do No Wrong hasn't raced here before but all his rivals have won over course and distance, so they all know how to win this kind of race, which has in the past really suited those runners keen to get on with things...

...which would seem to suit most of the field...

...as only Do No Wrong isn't used to setting the pace or racing prominently.

Summary

To be honest, when I started out on this one, I expected to be all over Do No Wrong, I think he's the best horse in the race, but this isn't the best race for him. He's been off the track a good while, he's carrying quite a bit more weight than last time and wouldn't appear to be suited by the pace profile. I'd love to be wrong here, but I can't see him winning this one although he will win others!

This leaves me with a problem, because I have reservations over all of the runners here, but I suppose I've got least against Jack's Touch. This race isn't as tough as the Ascot one he faced last time out, he has won over course and distance, he likes to get on with things (that Ascot race aside) and should be race ready. He's currently (5.05pm Friday) best priced at 4/1, but the market shows you how tricky this one is with no E/W option...

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.33 Taunton
  • 2.35 Limerick
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

...from which the clear highest-rated takes place just North of Liverpool city centre. The 3.30 Aintree is the Aintree Hurdle, a Class 1 (Grade 1 no less), 4yo+, hurdles contest over two and a half miles (plus 74 yards today for rail movements), taking in a dozen hurdles over a left handed track on soft ground, where one of these will trot away having netted just over £140k for their owner(s)...

Early indications are that this is expected to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe, who are both expected to go off shorter than 2/1. This is unattractive to me in terms of picking/backing a winner, based on my staking levels, but it does open the prospect of an E/W bet at 8/1 or bigger, so let's go!

Langer Dan and Mahons Glory both won last time out, but the latter is the only runner in this field not to run at Class 1 last time out, as he comes here off the back of a Boxing Day, Class 3 hurdle win at Kempton, but he has won two of his last five, whilst the former scored at Cheltenham, becoming the first horse to land the Coral Cup on more than one occasion.

All eight have won at least one of their last five with only Nicky Henderson's Marie's Rock failing to complete their last race. She's one of two mares in the race, both trained by Nick henderson, who has won this race four times in the last six years, including 2022 and 2023. Marie's Rock's jockey Nico de Boinville was in the saddle last year, steering Constitution Hill home to victory. The other mare is the consistent (5 wins and 5 places from 10) Luccia.

The two mares get a 7lbs weight allowance here in a race where the two market principals are best off at the weights ahead of Luccia after the allowances are factored in. Most of the field ran at the Cheltenham Festival a month ago, but Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe didn't visit HQ and last raced in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown almost ten weeks ago, finishing second and third respectively, 5.5 and 10/5 lengths behind State Man, who then went to Cheltenham to win our Champion Hurdle. Luccia was a gallant third that day, beaten by just 3.5 lengths.

Only Mahon's Glory has yet to race this year, but he is one of just two (alongside Langer Dan) to have won over this course and distance, although all bar Neman Lion and Luccia have won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...that said, neither have raced at this trip! The above graphic suggests that of the favourites, Impaire should feel more at home on the soft ground but Bob Olinger is also 3 from 3 over fences on soft ground. Beacon Edge looks like he might be outclassed here and Mahons Glory will find it tough to challenge, but as I'm after an E/W bet, let's look at place data...

...where, as you'd expect, most fare pretty well. I think it's the end of the road here for Beacon Edge, Langer Dan, Mahon's Glory and Marie's Rock, though, as Nemean Lion and Luccia look better E/W prospects so far, unless there's something radical in the pace stats to make me change my mind. I'm aware that this last pair haven't raced at this trip before, but is it better or worse to have not raced at the trip than it is to have tried and failed?

As it stands, this field's recent races suggest that there might well be some decent early pace...

...whilst off an admittedly small sample size of similar past races here at Aintree, early pace does seem to be the best tactic...

Summary

I agree with the pre-race judgement that this is likely to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe and if pushed for a verdict, I'd have Impasse et Passe ahead of Bob Olinger here, but I doubt there'll be very much in it.

As for the places, I envisage another tight battle between Luccia and Nemean Lion. Luccia has ticked more boxes during my analysis, but has never been beyond 2m1f, whilst Nemean Lion was a runner-up over 2m5½f earlier this year. I do like Luccia more than Nemean Lion and she's technically 5lbs well in, so if she stays the trip, she'd be my E/W option. The Wednesday 3.30pm market looked like this...

...with Nemean Lion looking attractively priced too. I'll take Luccia, but I might take the Lion too!

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Market Rasen
  • 3.52 Lingfield
  • 4.50 Leopardstown
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Market Rasen

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

and 30-day form...

A couple of our in-form trainers go head to head to head in the 3.40 Wolverhampton, whilst both Tom Lacey and Richard Hughes have runners in races from the free list. Dibble Decker's race is rated higher than the one featuring Sandy paradise, so I'm going to look at the 3.00 Market Rasen, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m 3f 139yds (after a 105yd rail movement) on good to soft / soft ground...

Jet Plane and William Cody both won last time out with the latter also finishing as a runner-up in five of his previous seven outings. Featured horse Dibble Decker was a runner-up on his last run, beaten by just a neck but did win two starts ago. Top-weight War Lord and Dreams of Home are the only ones without a win in their last five and they come here on losing runs of 12 and 10 races respectively.

War Lord will wear blinkers for the first time and does, however, drop down a class here as does The Big Bite, but Dreams of Home actually steps up a level, just like bottom-weight LTO winner William Cody. Gloire d'Athon might well need a run here, having been off the track since a 42-length defeat at Kempton in late November, whilst all his rivals have had a run in the last 25-39 days.

The out of form Dreams of Home is the only one yet to win over a similar trip to this one and Instant Expert's data from the field's previous efforts in this type of race looks like this...

We know War Lord has lost his last twelve and his record on this going and over this type of trip are really poor; his best efforts have been over 1m7½f to 2m½f, so I think today's trip will be beyond him, whilst The Big Bite hasn't won on anything softer than good since November 2020 and at the age of 11 he's not going to get any better. William Cody's chase win have been at Class 4 before today, but as the place stats show, he he hasn't been out of his depth in this grade despite being 0 from 3...

...and the perennial runner-up looks a good bet for a place if nothing else! On the evidence of that second graphic, you'd not want to be getting involved with War Lord, The Big Bite or Dreams of Home and if William Cody does what he normally does and finds one (or two!) too good for him, then is our winner going to come from Gloire D'Athon (who was poor LTO and hasn't raced for 19 weeks), featured horse Dibble Decker or LTO winner Jet Plane?

At this point, I'd normally ask the pace stats to help me out, but the data from past similar contests is inconclusive...

I know that it looks like leaders are the ones to be with, but the fact that prominent runners aren't as successful mid-division runners suggests that the data might not be rock solid for this type of race and that feeling is compounded when I look at the field's last four runs...

...where very few of them seem to have a consistent running style. Of the three that I mention as potential winners, Gloire D'Athon & Dibble Decker look like prominent runners and Jet Plane looks like a hold-up horse with neither of those style being favourable here. Jet Plane did set the pace two starts ago, of course and War Lord did so three races back, but this looks like a falsely run contest will be on the cards.

Summary

When I see a race that I think will be falsely run, I tend to revert to recent overall form and historical relevant form (ie Instant Expert) and all things considered, this brings me to Dibble Decker. He's in good nick, the yard are going well and he has raced to varying tactics in his recent races. He's the current (4.25pm) 3/1 favourite for the race with Hills, but I had him at 11/4 anyway, so that's a fair price.

I suspect that William Cody will be the 'bridesmaid' once again and may have to fend Jet Plane off to do so, but rather boringly I have to agree with the bookies 1-2-3 on this occasion.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/04/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with just one qualifier, but thankfully we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.30 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hexham
  • 5.15 Thirsk
  • 7.30 Southwell

...where Cool Party's race is the highest rated of the four available. The race itself is the 6.00 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

COOL PARTY hasn't been seen since going down by 10 lengths here on 15th December and hasn't won a race since the end of September when scoring at Haydock over today's trip after an eleven-month barren run. Might need the run here, but does drop down a class.

ISLE OF SARK just doesn't win races. He scored on his debut at Dundalk in November 2020, but is now 1 from 19! He's not a lost cause, mind; he has made the frame in each of his last four and five of his last six and has three runner-up finishes from his last four where he has been beaten by a neck, a short-head and a neck last time out. Off the same mark here, he should be in the mix again.

ROBUSTO has four wins and four places from his nine outings over the last year, but hasn't raced for six months now. Has moved from Sir Mark Prescott's yard in that time and now steps up a class for his yard debut for Eve Johnson Houghton and is possibly the one to beat here.

DREAMS FLED AWAY also makes a yard debut here, having moved to be trained by Barry Brennan after a 12-race career in Ireland for Shane Crawley. He was a decent third of fourteen on his last race for Shane, twenty-five days ago beaten by just three parts of a length and has been in decent nick with a two wins and two places from his last five, all at Dundalk.

MARBUZET is another who hasn't been seen for over six months and now re-appears in first-time cheekpieces. He was in good form before his break, making the frame in nine consecutive races, winning twice. He's 3lbs higher than his last run, so might enjoy a shorter trip here.

ADDOSH hasn't been seen on a racecourse since the end of November when pulled up in a handicap hurdle at Hereford in what was an eighth successive defeat over hurdles since his last A/W outing, when last of seven here beaten by twelve lengths in January 2023. His Flat/AW record is pretty poor with just one win from 13 and his A/W form reads 24067. Probably best avoided.

The win element of Instant Expert doesn't tell us too much...

...but Isle of Sark's knack of running well but just finding one (or two) just a bit too good for him is well documented in these place stats...

...where he looks almost nailed-on to (a) lose but (b) make the frame again! He's drawn fairly centrally here, but over 1m6f, the draw shouldn't really make a huge difference. That might be a good thing, because we don't have much data from similar past races, as there aren't many previous small field 1m6f contests on the tapeta here, but this is what we do have...

I certainly wouldn't lean too heavily on that piece of information alone, but if asked to draw anything from it, I'd say that I'd want to be in stalls 2 to 4. What I can tell you from those races above, is that horses who've attempted to make all have really struggled to get home ahead of the pack...

...with the stalking prominent horse(s) faring much better. This is probably not great news for Cool Party, who looks like he'll be the one setting the fractions here, if 'recent' races are anything to go by for this field...

Summary

We've worked with limited data and a small field here and often it' a case of going with who you think is the best runner. Isle of Sark certainly wouldn't be winning out of turn, but he gets no respite from the assessor and always manages to get beaten! And I suspect that'll be the case here again today with Robusto the one to beat for me.

Isle of Sark will be pretty short in the market, so if you wanted an E/W option, you could look at Marbzuet, another consistent placer.

The market looked like this at 6.20pm...

...so good luck!

Racing Insights, Monday 08/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.08 Wincanton
  • 4.30 Lingfield

...from which I've selected the 4.08 Wincanton as it's the highest-rated race of the four. It's an 8-runner (Dartmoor Pirate doesn't run), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Home Free has made the frame in each of his five starts to dates, getting off the mark with a 14-lengths success at Lingfield five weeks agao when last seen, whilst Toss Of A Coin is 2 from 2 under rules having justified his odds on favouritism in both starts since leaving his pointing days behind (he also won his last PTP). All the field have won at least one of their last seven races, though and all have had at least one run since the 10th February.

LTO winner Home Free steps up a class for his handicap debut (it's also Toss of a Coin's handicap bow), but both Bourbali (PU LTO) and Issam (15th of 16) drop down a level from Class 2, whilst top-weight Hardy Du Seuil is down two classes after being pulled up in Grand Annual at this year's Cheltenham Festival almost four weeks ago. Issam will also wear cheekpieces for the first time today.

Monviel is the only former course winner, having landed a Class 4, 1m7½f, maiden hurdle back in January 2022, mind you only Bourbali (7th of 16 and 2nd of 5 in two visits) of his rivals have been here before, but three of them; Hardy du Seuil, Bourbali and Toss of a Coin have won over a similar trip to this one...

Instant Expert tells us that only Home Free isn't running off a higher mark than his last win and that he along with Monviel and Toss of a Coin have already won on heavy ground...

...although if truth be told, we've not actually got a great deal of relevant past races to deal with. The trip looks like it has started to be a bit of an issue for American Sniper and Issam, who are a cumulative 0 from 10, although they have both made the frame in three of their defeats...

Feature of the day is, of course, the pace data and we can look at this in two ways. Firstly we can see how similar past races (if there are any) have unfolded via the Pace Analyser, which today says...

...that in 6-10 runner, heavy ground hurdles here at Wincanton over 2m2f to 2m6f (we widen the parameters to give a more workable dataset), that it really paid to be setting the tempo (pace) of the race. This is of course, very useful knowledge, if you know which horses like to lead and which don't.

Thankfully the second facet to our pace offering is the actual pace tab on the race card itself and clicking that will give you something like this...

...suggesting the main pace here is with Toss of a Coin, Bourbali and Monviel, whilst Home Free made all in his comprehensive win last time out.

Summary

Pace and race suitability are key here and Toss of a Coin, Bourbali, Monviel and Home Free are the ones likely to be setting the tempo of the contest and they were the four that make most sense from the Instant Expert data, so they form the half of the field that I'd want to be with here.

You could make a case for all four and I suspect it'll be a decent contest, but having seen the 5.40pm odds...

...it'd be Home Free at 5/1 for me. He looks to have been very leniently treated for his handicap debut and will no doubt need to fend off a few rivals to win, but the price is attractive, as is the 12/1 about Bourbali. Whilst he has struggled over fences this winter, he was a runner-up in a Class 2 contest over this trip on his last hurdles outing, albeit a year ago. Any semblance of that kind of form gives him a chance of making the frame and he's a better horse than 12/1, so he could be a profitable E/W angle.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and sadly they have only generated one runner for me to check out under 1-year form...

...but thankfully as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 2.25 Kelso
  • 2.40 Kempton
  • 4.45 Kelso
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

...and although it has more runners than I'm normally comfortable with, the best of those four races above looks like the 2.40 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

Intinso and Valsad both won last time out and Cannon Rock comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Old Peculier was a runner-up on his UK debut follwing three straight wins at Dundalk and Old Harrovian has won two of his last three, having been denied a hat-trick when switched to turf for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury last May.

Which, of course, means that he now makes a comeback after 322 days off the track, so he might be a little rusty here, as might Captain Wierzba after his own 337-day break, during which he was gelded. Chillingham, Laafi, Londoner and Killybegs Warrior are also without a run in 2024, having been rested for 135, 147, 169 and 175 days respectively.

Most of these did race at Class 2 last time out, but Valsad and the fast-finisher Youthful King step up from Class 3 and Cannon Rock is up two classes here, but a stated above, Old Harrovian last ran at Group 3 and now wears a tongue-tie for the first time as he drops to down in class to become one of three handicap debutants (Captain Wierzba and Cannon Rock are the others), whilst Duc de Kent's second UK appearance will be his second handicap effort after a winter in Bahrain where he failed to make the frame in four attempts.

Londoner makes a yard debut for Jim Goldie and has been gelded since leaving Aidan O'Brien, for whom he was a runner-up on his last outing. Cemhaan is the only previous course winner (over 1m4f) of the four (Killybegs Warrior, Youthful King & Dream Harder being the others), but three of the field (Youthful King, Dream Harder & Old Peculier) have won over a similar trip.

The field's 2-year form under today's conditions looks like this...

...which is a little bit sketchy to say the least, although Cemhaan and Intinso tick some boxes. I do suspect that in a 14-runner field where the bookies will pay 4 or even 5 places, that we might be better off seeing if we can find one to make the frame before we consider a winner, so here are the place stats from those races above...

...and whilst the field is generally quite inexperienced under these conditions, there are still positives to take from the data, but I think I'd want to eliminate Killybegs Warrior, Duc de Kent, Londoner, Captain Wierzba, Dream Harder and Laafi at this point, which should make the picture a little clearer for me and leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 13 over a course and distance that despite not having a huge draw bias...

...has seemed to favour those drawn in stalls 1 to 8 in terms of the PRB3 scores, which mightn't be great news for Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from the eight runners I'm still looking at, although I suspect that in a big field like this race positioning and tactics aka 'pace' will have a huge bearing on the result. If we therefore look back at this 100+ races above that I used for the draw analysis, there's a clear definition of what works best here...

...and if we then look at this field's last few runs...

...the ones that interest me from a pace profile would be the first six on that list plus Chillingham and Old Harrovian, as I'm looking for a 4-race pace average of 3.00 or higher or three scores of 3+ from four runs.

Summary

I used Instant Expert to whittle the field from fourteen to eight runners, who in draw order were Intinso, Cannon Rock, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan, Chillingham, Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier from which Valsad, Youthful King and Old Peculier seemed disadvantaged by the draw, whilst the pace make-up of the race doesn't seem to suit Cannon Rock, Youthful King and Old Peculier.

If I remove those that seem unsuited by pace and/or draw, I'm left with four runners who the stats suggest have a good chance of making the frame here : Intinso, Old Harrovian, Cemhaan and Chillingham and to be perfectly honest, I'd be happy to back all of them to at least get placed. I think Intinso and Old Harrovian are much better than the other two and they're actually my 1-2 here.

Sadly, the 5.30pm market agrees with on those two, albeit they have them the other way around...

...so we've not managed to unearth something nobody else has spotted, I'm afraid, but Chillingham and Cemhaan are both interesting at 8's and 16's respectively, particularly the latter at that price, especially if you can get five places from your bookie.

Sat TV Trends: 6th April 2024

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A busy day for the ITV cameras this Saturday as they head to Kelso to take in four races, plus they are also at Kempton for three contests on the AW. 

We are on hand with the key trends and top tips for all the LIVE ITV races. Use these stats to put history on your side and find the best profiles based on past winners of the races.

KEMPTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

2:05 Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Snowdrop Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m ITV

18/19 – Had won between 2-4 times before
17/19 – Came from the top three in the betting
17/19 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Won by a 4 year-old
16/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/19 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
13/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
13/19 – Rated between 90-102
12/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Unplaced in their last race
8/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Had run at Kempton before
6/19 – Rated 96 or lower
5/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/19 – Won last time out
7 of the last 15 favourites have won
Trainer Marco Botti has won 3 of the last 9
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 4
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 7
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

2:40 Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m3f ITV

18/19 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
16/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/19 – Had won between 2-4 times before
14/19 – Rated between 89 and 99
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
11/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/19 – Won last time out
4/19 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
2/19 – Trained by the Johnston yard (Mark/Charlie)
3/19 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 10 winners ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

3:15 Virgin Bet Queen's Prize Handicap (London Stayers' Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV

12/12 - Won no more than 5 times
11/12 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/12 - Had won over 1m6f or further
9/12 - Didn’t win last time out
9/12 - Had run at Kempton before
9/12 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
7/12 - Only won between 1-3 times before
7/12 - Rated between 82-89
7/12  - Had won at Kempton in the past
6/12 - Favourites that finished 2nd
2/12 - Trained by Roger Charlton
2/12 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/12 – Ridden by Kieran Shoemark
1/12 - Winning favourites

 

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (RTV/ITV)

1:50 – Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV

9/9 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
8/9 – Aged between 7-10 years-old
8/9 – Won between 2-5 times over hurdles
8/9 – Favourites placed in top 3
7/9  - Irish (5) or French (2) bred
7/9 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
6/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
5/9 - Had run at Kelso before
5/9 – Ridden by a conditional (claiming) jockey
3/9 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

2:25 – Belhaven Brewery Go North Cab On Target Handicap Hurdle (Series Final) (GBB Race) (Cl2) (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

Just 2 past runnings
Trainers Sue Smith & Susan Corbett have won the race before
Both winners ridden by a conditional jockey
Both winners carried 10-13 or less in weight
No winning favourite
Les’s Legacy won the race in 2023
Trainer Donald McCain has a 19% record their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thomson has a 18% record their hurdlers at the track
Trainer  Philip Kirby is just 1 from 29 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Henry Brooke is just 3-from-60 with riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Sam Coltherd is just 2-from-62 with riding over hurdles at the track

3:00– Paxtons For Kverneland Machinery & Genuine Spares Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2f ITV

7/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
7/8 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
7/8 – Won between 0-3 times over fences before
7/8 – Unplaced last time out
6/8 – Had won over at least 3m before
6/8 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
5/8 – Unplaced favourites
4/8 – Had run at Kelso before
1/8 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 3 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey
Elvis Mail won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 6/1

3:35 – Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV

2 previous running
Trainer Fergal O’Brien won the race in 2023
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2022
Both winners favourites
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 42% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ruth Jefferson has a 19% record with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Philip Kirby is just 1 from 29 with his hurdlers at the track

 

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Racing Insights, Friday 05/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one UK qualifier..

...but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards as follows...

  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Fontwell
  • 5.40 Musselburgh
  • 5.50 Wexford
  • 8.30 Dundalk

...from which I'm going to look at Ewan Whillans' Scots Poet, who should be used to the surroundings for the 6.40 Musselburgh, a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 2m1f and 87yds on soft ground...

Top-weight Russian Virtue comes here on a hat-trick and has three wins and a place from his last four. he has made the frame in each of his last ten NH outings, winning six times, but this has propelled his mark from 85 to today's 114! Coup de Coeur won last time out and is two from four and both Scots Poet and Beaumesnil also come here off the back of wins.

Those without a win in their visible form line are Collingham, Hartur D'Oudairies, Restandbethankful, Mack The Man and The Navigator who are on NH losing runs of 7, 8, 6, 11 and 12 races respectively.

Not one of these actually raced at this grade last time out and all of them bar Scots Poet (up one class) are up at least two classes here with three (Beausmesnil, Mack The Man And Serious Ego) making a triple step up, which wouldn't bode well for Mack the Man breaking his 11-race drought.

Most of the field have raced inside the last seven weeks, but Restandbethankful, Scots Poet and The Navigator now return from breaks of 62, 95 and 160 days respectively with the latter now probably needing a run to get race-fit : not ideal when you've lost your last dozen!

Seven of the field have already won here at Musselburgh and seven (not all the same horses) have scored over a similar trip to this one, but only Cuban Cigar and The Navigator have scored over course and distance and Instant Expert shows us who has done what over this going/class/course/distance over the last two years...

In-form and top-weight Russian Virtue has yet to won at Class 2, but he should certainly relish the ground and the trip and the same can be said about H4C horse Scots Poet, of course. Cuban Cigar has a reasonable record across the board, but I'm hoping the place stats from those races above will be more helpful...

...and they certainly are, even if only to tell me to concentrate on the upper half of the card. I expect most bookies to pay 4 places on this race, so focusing on just seven should simplify the task of at least finding a placer or two.

Our next thing to consider is how the race might pan out in a competitive-looking 13-runner contest on soft ground, where race tactics/tempo aka 'pace' might be a contributory or even deciding factor. Our pace analyser tells us that similar past races have gone like this...

...with horses running in mid-division or further back really struggling to land any kind of blow, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...would make life difficult for any from Hartur D'Oudairies downwards.

Summary

From Instant Expert, we highlighted Collingham, Coup de Coeur, Cuban Cigar, Duyfken, Final Edgar, Russian Virtue and Scots Poet, whilst those at the sharper end of the pace charts were Collingham, Coup de Coeur, Duyfken, Final Edgar, Restandbethankful and Russian Virtue.

Scots Poet is, of course, our H4C qualifier and was also one of our 'form' horses along with Russian Virtue, Coup de Coeur and Beaumesnil.

A quick tally up says that Coup de Coeur, Scots Poet and Russian Virtue tick more boxes than the others, so they'd be my three against the field and I'd probably take them in that order today. Only Hills had prices at 3pm Thursday, but they seem to agree with me about the 1-2 here and that Russian Virtue is less likely to succeed...

I'm not sure yet which way to go about the 1-2, I might dutch them, but Russian Virtue looks like my E/W selection. As for the others on my shortlist, Collingham, Duyfken and Final Edgar make more appeal than Cuban Cigar from an E/w perspective and all are at very backable odds.

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.10 Naas
  • 3.55 Warwick
  • 4.15 Naas
  • 4.38 Clonmel
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...from which, I've selected the 8.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

My immediate thoughts were that this looks pretty open for a lowly Class 6 contest, but that the winner might well come from the bottom end of the card, although only 6lbs separates the first eight of the nine runners, of whom Classic Speed and Crafter both won last time out.

Malacanne and Snooze Lane both won two starts ago and the latter made the frame here over course and distance last time out, whilst top-weight Coolree was a runner-up on his last start and now wears blinkers for the first time in a bid to end a run of seven defeats. Light Up Our Stars and Zumaaty are also on long losing runs, having lost 12 and 10 on the bounce respectively. Both of these should benefit from a drop in class and three others (top-weight Coolree, The Pug & Graffiti) also all drop down from Class 5 here, whilst Graffiti will now carry a 7lb claimer effectively taking him back to his last winning mark (7 off 65 today vs 3 off 61 over course and distance in November).

All nine runners have been seen inside the last 7-33 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue for any of them and more than half (5) of the field have already scored over course and distance, but Coolree, The Pug and Classic Speed have yet to win over either track or trip, whilst Light Up Our Stars has won here over 7f and 1m½f, albeit not since October. and these course/distance wins (or lack of) lead us nicely into our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...which says that over the last couple of years, most of this field have performed reasonably well under today's conditions, although Coolree is 0 from 7 on the A/W. Light Up Our Stars is 3 from 21 here at Wolverhampton, but has won just 1 of 13 here over the last two years and has been beaten in all six efforts at similar trips. The Pug is also light on wins at track/trip, but has three wins in this grade. That said, none of them are in the red at Class 6, as Coolree drops to this level for the first time and we've no red at all from the bottom four in the weights.

From a place perspective, those races above highlight the consistency of Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug...

Of those four regular placers, Zumaaty, Crafter and Graffiti are drawn lowest of all nine runners here, but our draw analyser suggests that horses coming from the centre of the stalls might have more going for them in terms of assistance from the draw...

And if we look at how those 150+ races have been won, we're told that whilst there's not a huge pace bias, horses running just off the leaders or in mid-division have fared best...

...suggesting that leaders make the frame quite often, but appear to get overhauled mate on (only 30% of placers were winners), whilst prominent runners make the frame more often and win more often overall. Yet, it's the mid-division runners who convert more places (38.8%) into wins. The inference about hold-up horses is that they end up with too much work to do, which based on recent outings...

...might not great news for Crafter, nor Classic Speed, yet the collective pace/draw heat map from those previous Wolverhampton races would suggest that Classic Speed could do very well here along with The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars, who appear to be best suited...

Summary

The ones who caught the eye on form were Classic Speed and Crafter who both won last time out, along with Snooze Lane ( a win and a place from his last two) and Graffiti (placed twice in his last three), whilst it was Graffiti, Crafter, Zumaaty and The Pug who were highlighted by Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map seems to favour Classic Speed, The Pug, Graffiti and Light Up Our Stars and it is from these three categories that I'm going to choose.

Classic Speed, Crafter and The Pug are all mentioned twice there, but Graffiti is the one that would appear to tick all three boxes.

I'd no odds available at 4.15pm on Wednesday, but a tissue made up from the average odds predicted by Oddschecker, Timeform and the Racing Post looked like this...

Classic Speed 10/3
Crafter 4.17/1
Snooze Lane 4.67/1
Graffiti 6.83/1
Coolree 7.33/1
Malacanne 10.33/1
Zumaaty 11/1
Light Up Our Stars 16.67/1
The Pug 22.33/1

...and if that's anywhere near accurate, I'd be interested in Graffiti as a winner (E/W if he gets close to 8's) and a cheeky E/W punt on The Pug (especially as SkyBet are paying four places), but I'll need to check the prices later before doing anything, of course!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/04/24

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Hope you all had a great Easter and after the break Insights now return with a look at Wednesday's racing where the free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 5.00 Catterick
  • 5.25 Kempton

...whilst the TS report has the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

...and 30-day form...

I tend to leave the Flat alone in the first few weeks of the season, so the Catterick race is a no-no for me, as is the 'free' Kempton race : Class 5 maidens don't do much for me, but from TS, Richard Hughes' Zero Carbon runs in a decent-looking contest for the 7.00 Kempton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

Kiwano won last time out, Revolutionise was a runner-up and Hodler was third in a big field, but the other half dozen all failed to place. Toimy Son is 0 from 5 in the Uk, but did win a Listed race at Longchamp eight starts and twenty-three months ago. Hickory and Hodler are both winless in seven with all their rivals winning at least once in their last six.

Hodler's chances of breaking that losing run might not be helped by stepping up a class as does bottom weight King Cabo, but better news for Hickory, who drops down one level, as do Caragio and Kiwano, who makes a debut for George Baker today.

Thre of the field (Follow Your Heart, the fast-finisher Revolutionise and King Cabo) have been seen in the last 18-27 days and Kiwano's LTO win was 47 days ago, but the remainder of the field have been off the track for 135 days or more, with Toimy Son away the longest at nearly nine months, during which time he was gelded.

Kiwano and Hodler are the only two yet to win over this course and distance, but both have scored at the trip and in fairness, Hodler's run here in March 2022 is the only time either have been here and their lack of course wins is shown on Instant Expert, of course...

...where several runners look like they'll be at ease with these conditions, but Follow Your Heart has struggled to win on the going, here at Kempton and over the trip, whilst Revolutionise has even worse figures at class and trip and Hickory is still 9lbs higher than his last win, despite losing each of his last seven starts.

Although Follow Your Heart has plenty of defeats above, he's actually pretty consistent at making the frame, according to the place stats...

...where he looks very well placed along with Kiwano, Zero Carbon and King Cabo amongst others. Bottom weight King Cabo has been drawn lowest of all here with Revolutionise out in stall nine and it would appear that a high draw isn't preferable...

...with the PRB3 scores dropping off from stall 4 and upwards, although stall 5 still has a rating of o.50...

The pace stats from those races seem quite heavily stacked towards those willing to set the tempo...

...with hold-up horses tending to struggle, which could make life difficult for the likes of Toimy Son, Follow Your Heart and Hodler, based on their most recent efforts...

...and with the pace/draw heat map from those races above looking like this with our runners overlaid...

...the likes of Zero Carbon, Kiwano, Hickory and King Cabo become of interest.

Summary

Most of these have a relatively recent win, but none are in great form, although Kiwano did win last time out and he along with Follow Your Heart, Zero Carbon and King Cabo were the ones who looked best suited to make the frame from Instant Expert. The pace/draw heat map also highlighted Zero Carbon, Kiwano, Hickory and King Cabo, so I think this might well point to Kiwano as my 'most likely' here with honourable mentions to both Zero Carbon and King Cabo.

The 5.30pm market had Zero Carbon at 11/2, Kiwano at 8/1 and King Cabo at 16/1, so there's a distinct possibility that I've misread the data, but I'd be looking as small E/W plays on Kiwano and King Cabo here.

 

Sat TV Trends: 30th March 2024

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More LIVE ITV horse racing action this Saturday as the cameras head to both Haydock and Musselburgh to take in seven races across the two venues.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our verdicts!

Enjoy!

Saturday 30th March 2024

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 1m7f144y ITV

7 previous runnings
Trainers Gary Moore, Neil King, Dan Skelton, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain, Tom George and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the race before
6/7 – Winners carried 10-13 or less in weight
5/7 – Carried 10-8 or less
5/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/7 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/7 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/7 – Winners returned between 8/1 and 11/1
4/7 – Rated between 115-119
3/7 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
3/7 – Irish Bred
1/7 – No winning favourite
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Harry Derham has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 4 from 46 (9%) with his hurdlers at the track

2.40 – Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

7/7 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
5/7 – Finished in the top three last time out
4/7 – Had run at the track before
6/7 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
4/7 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
3/7 – Rated between 122-126
3/7 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
4/7 – Unplaced favourites
2/7 – Ridden by Jonjo O’Neill Jr
2/7 – Winning favourites
Trainers Jonjo O’Neill (2), Brian Ellison, Nick Williams and Stuart Edmunds have won this race before
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a 23% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Neil Alexander has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 4 from 46 (9%) with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Jack Tudor has a 33% (3-9) record riding over hurdles at the track

3.15 – Unibet Veteran’s Handicap Chase Cl2 (9yo+) 2m4f ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Sam Thomas has a 67% strike-rate over fences at the track
Trainer Richard Hobson has a 33% strike-rate over fences at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams has a 24% strike-rate over fences at the track
Jockey James Bowen has a 27% strike-rate over fences at the track
Jockey Charlie Deutsch has a 23% strike-rate over fences at the track

MUSSELBURGH Horse Racing Trends (Racing TV/ITV4)

**Cancelled due to a waterlogged track**

1.50 – Virgin Bet Royal Mile Handicap (Class 3) (3yo) 1m ITV

2 previous runnings
The Johnston yard have won both runnings (Mark & Charlie)
Jockey Joe Fanning has won both runnings
Both winners came from stalls 3 or lower
Both winners carried 9-5 or more
Trainer Richard Fahey has an 18% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Charlie Johnston has an 17% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke has an 17% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Sam James has a 24% strike-rate riding 3 year-olds at the track

2.25 – Virgin Bet Silver Arrow Handicap Cl3 (4yo+) 7f ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
Trainers Katie Scott (2), Mark Johnston, David O’Meara, Kevin Ryan and David Barron have won the race before
Gweedore won the race in 2022 and 2023
6/6 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
6/6 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
5/6 – Came between stalls 3-5 (inc)
5/6 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
3/6 – Came from stall 3
No winning out favourite yet (1 joint)
Trainer Karl Burke has a 50% record with his 4+ year-old at the track (3 from 6)
Jockey Shane Gray has a 19% strike-rate riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Sam James has a 19% strike-rate riding 4+ year-olds at the track

3.00 – Virgin Bet Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 5f ITV

11/12 – Won over 5f before
9/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Drawn 8 or higher
8/12 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/12 – Rated between 92 and 99
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/12– Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/12 – Ran at the track before
5/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – Drawn in stalls 15 (2) or 16 (2)
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Trained by Mick Appleby
3/12 – Ridden by a claimer  (3 of the last 9)
7 of the last 8 winners came from stalls 8+
7 of the last 10 winners aged 6 or younger
Silie Wilkie won the race in 2023

3.35 – Virgin Bet Queen's Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

7/8 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/8 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Unplaced favourites
5/8 – Had run at Musselburgh before
5/8 – Returned a double-figure price
2/8 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
2/8 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope (last 2)
2/8 – Ridden by Ben Curtis
1/8 – Winning favourite
Trainer Adam Nicol is 3 from 4 with his 4 year-olds at the track
Trainers Mark Johnston (2), Archie Watson, Ian Williams, JP Shanahan, Brian Ellison and Jim Goldie have won the race before

 

 

Newcastle Trends (All Weather Championships Day), Friday 29th March 2024

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The ITV4 cameras head to Newcastle racecourse this Good Friday (29th March 2024) to take SIX races from the lucrative All Weather Championships Meeting Finals Day.

There are plenty of the power-house flat yards bringing horses to the northern venue and it’s no surprise with mouth-watering prize money on offer, including £100k for the winner of the feature race – the All-Weather Easter Classic Middle-Distance Handicap (4:10).

Like all big race days, we take a look at all the races from a trends angle, including the best positive and negative trainer/jockey stats – we hope they help point you in the direction of a few winners!

Note: This meeting used to be staged at Lingfield, but has been moved to Newcastle for the first time in 2022 - therefore, some trends (like draw and previous track stats) will apply to Lingfield.

Also note some of the race in 2024 have been changed from Conditions races to Handicaps.

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (SkyRacing/ITV)

1.53 - BetUK All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m7f169y ITV

8 of the last 9 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
9 of the last 9 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
7 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 8 or lower
6 of the last 9 winners aged between 4-6 years-old
4 of the last 9 winners had won at the track before
3 of the last 9 favourites have won (or jfavs)
3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 8
3 of the last 9 winners ran at Lingfield last time out
2 of the last 9 winners trained by Andrew Balding
The favourite has finished 1st (twice) or 2nd in 7 of the last 9 runnings
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 29% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 23% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock has a 22% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Rossa Ryan is just 2 from 44 (5%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Luke Morris is just 8 from 114 (7%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
Note: This meeting was staged at Lingfield between 2014-2021
2023 Winner: RAINBOW DREAMER (10/1)

2.25 – BetMGM All-Weather 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Richard Spencer has a 29% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 27% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Marco Botti has a 23% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Archie Watson has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Daniel Tudhope has a 24% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Rossa Ryan has a 23% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 22% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Luke Morris has a 5% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Cam Hardie has a 2% record riding 3 year-olds at the track

3.00 – BetMGM All weather Fillies’ and Mares’ Championships Handicap Cl2 (4 yo+) 7f1y ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Rod Millman has a 100% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 41% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer George Boughey has a 23% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Laura Pearson has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Rossa Ryan is just 2 from 44 (5%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track

3.35 – BetUK All-Weather Sprint Handicap Cl2 (4 yo+) 6f1y ITV

Trainer Richard Fahey won this race in 2014, 2016 & 2017
Three winning favourites in the last 9 runnings
8 of the last 9 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
5 of the last 9 winners were Irish-bred horses
7 of the last 9 previous winners had raced at the track before
7 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 5-9 (inc)
5 of the last 9 winners drawn in stall 7 or lower
2 of the last 5 winners were French-trained
6 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 5 (2), 8 (2), or 9 (2)
Summerghand won this race in 2021
Trainer John Gosden has a 23% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Archie Watson has a 21% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Karl Burke has a 6% (6/96) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon has a 7% (2/30) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jack Mitchell has a 21% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves is just 17 from 341 (5%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Frederick Larson is just 2 from 41 (5%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Alistair Rawlinson is just 4 from 63 (6%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: No race in 2020
Note: This meeting was staged at Lingfield between 2014-2021
2023 Winner: DILIGENT HARRY (4/1)

4.10 – BetUK All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Handicap Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 41% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Simon Pearce has a 40% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 27% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer William Knight has a 26% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Saffie Osborne has a 26% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jack Mitchell has a 21% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey David Probert is just 2 from 29 (7%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Rossa Ryan is just 2 from 44 (5%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Alistair Rawlinson is just 4 from 63 (6%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track

4.40 – BetMGM All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Clive Cox has a 57% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 27% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Archie Watson has a 21% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Evans is just 1 form 21 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 23% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Cam Hardie is just 17 from 474 (4%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Rossa Ryan is just 2 from 44 (5%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Luke Morris is just 8 from 114 (7%) when riding 4+ year-olds at the track

 

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Racing Insights, Good Friday 29/03/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Good Friday...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.40 Chelmsford
  • 1.53 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield

There's a cracking-looking card  (on paper, anyway) up in the North East and of the three Class 2 contests above, I've decided to look at Sibyl Charm and the 3.00 Newcastle based on field size and race distance. It's a 9-runner, A/W handicap for 4yo+ fillies and mares over a straight 7f on standard tapeta and here's how they'll line up...

Hodd's Girl and Smiling Sunflower look like they might be vulnerable here, but I think the remaining seven all stand a chance of being involved in the shake-up. Top weight Nine Tenths won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last four outings, whilst Cloud Cover has three golds and a silver from five runs and now wears a hood for the first time. Shades of Summer has won her last three, Just Spark is three from four and feature horse Sibyl Charm comes here on a hat-trick and has 3 wins and 4 runner-up places from her last seven. The only runner without a recent win is Aramis Grey, but even she has made the frame in each of her last five efforts.

Nine Tenths is already in good nick, but should benefit from a drop in class today having won a Listed race at Wolverhampton quite cosily three weeks ago, but it might be more of a struggle for Just A Spark and Sibyl Charm who are both up two classes, whilst bottom weight Smiling Sunflower is asked to step up three levels, which could be tough, especially at 5lbs outside the handicap.

Of the nine runners, Just A Spark is the only one yet to win over today's trip, as today will be her first effort. Nine Tenths has already won here at Newcastle, scoring over 6f back in November, whilst Shades of Summer and Sibyl Charm have both won over course and distance, the latter doing so twice from three attempts and her course form is reflected in Instant Expert...

...as is Smiling Sunflower's generally poor A/W record, whilst Aramis Grey looks out of her depth at Class 2 from a win perspective, but she does seem to have the knack of finishing in the frame...

Smiling Sunflower is definitely out of contention for me here from what I've already seen and the takeaways from Instant Expert were Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer, whilst Aramis Grey's 90% place strike rate at this class is impressive after so many runs. She'd be an unlikely winner at this point, but she's firmly in my mind as an E/W possible on the basis of the above data.

Whilst Nine Tenths led the way above, she's just on the cusp of being well drawn as those drawn higher over 7f here at Newcastle have fared better. It's strange to have a pronounced bias over a straight run on an artifiical surface, but surely the stats can't lie...

...and I think the cut-off comes around stall 5 (Nine Tenths is in number 4!)...

...although I suspect that with most straight line sprints that the pace angle will reveal more about a horse's chances and those 150+ races above have really suited horses keen to get on with things. Leaders win more than their fair share of races, but are often susceptible to being picked off late on by the prominent chasers...

...which unfortunately leads me to a bit of a quandary, as over a 4-race period we don't seem to have any genuine front runners...

..but if we stick to the field's two most recent outings (under the logic that if they're all in pretty decent nick they'll run more like their last two than 3 or 4 races ago), a slightly clearer patter emerges...

...where it's not beyond the realms of possibility that Sibyl Charm will end up setting the pace, but will be vulnerable to the likes of Shades of Summer and Nine Tenths and even Cloud Cover.

Also, when there's the distinct possibility of a falsely-run race, the better horses tend to fare best and this again points to Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer, who were the Instant Expert standouts for me.

Summary

No surprises here, but the two I'd take against the field are Nine Tenths and Shades of Summer and as such, it's equally unsurprising that they head the field at 5/2 and 4/1 respectively, but this does open up the prospect of an E/W bet, with the rest of field trading (as of 3pm Thursday) at 7/1 or bigger.

As E/W possibles, I am interested in both Cloud Cover and Aramis Grey and I think I might just have a preference for the latter at 8/1. She doesn't win often enough, but she's really consistent at this level finishing 222123232 in nine Class 2 contests since November 2022.

Happy Easter, everyone! I'm taking a few days off with the family, so I'll be back on Tuesday.

 

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