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Racing Insights, Thursday 25/04/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 5.10 Huntingdon
  • 5.40 Beverley
  • 6.52 Wexford
  • 9.00 Chelmsford

You can tell the nights are getting longer when we've got races at 9pm and that race is probably the best of the free races for me to cover, so let's head off to Essex for that 9.00 Chelmsford contest, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Fearless Bay is our sole LTO winner, but that run/win was 18 months ago, so I'm not it's a relevant form pointer. Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing were all third recently and all three come here in decent form; Isle of Sark has made the frame in six of his last seven despite not winning, Cavalluccio is 31621233 in his last eight and Ludo's Landing has been third in each of his last two outings.

As stated above, Fearless Bay hasn't been seen since winning at Southwell in October 2022 and both Wonder Starelzaam and Obsidian Knight have been off the track for over eight months, whilst the other seven runners here have all raced in the last two to four weeks.

As well as possibly being rusty, Wonder Starelzaam won't be helped by a step up in class and Wyvern and Boasty also step up a level here, but Bass Player is down one grade for this one.

Isle of Sark, Bass Player, Wyvern and Ludo's Landing have yet to win over this trip, whilst Fearless Bay, Cavalluccio and Boasty have all won over course and distance in the past, but four of this field have never been to Chelmsford before, as shown below on the Instant Expert feature...

...which seems to suggest a big run is coming from Fearless Bay and had this not been a comeback run, I'd have been all over those numbers, but the lay-off is a big concern for me. Visibility and Boasty's joint return of 8 wins from 88 standard going races makes them look vulnerable here and added to a 1 from 17 record at Class 4, Visibility joins Fearless Bay as a horse I just can't back here and this decision looks vindicated by his two-year place stats (also from Instant Expert)...

...from which, I'd probably only want to focus on the following...

...giving me runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 10, so a wide spread for a race that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in stalls 1-3 for win purposes and those in 1-7 for the places...

...BUT I'm of the opinion that over a trip beyond a mile here at Chelmsford that it's pace that wins the race and that doesn't always mean how fast they go. I'm referring to the whole pace of the race, the tactics/running styles used etc and if we look back over those races from the draw analysis above, we see the usual Chelmsford ace bias in operation...

Irrespective of draw here, you've really got to be up with a pace to give yourself the best chance of winning and based in the field's last few runs...

...Boasty and Ludo's Landing might be the ones to set the fractions.

Summary

Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing are the ones bringing the best recent form to the table and all three emerged unscathed from Instant Expert along with Bass Player, Wyvern and Boasty. Wyvern and Boasty seem to have the best draw with the latter fitting the pace profile best of all.

For me, it's Cavalluccio's race to win/lose, he's the form horse and isn't badly treated on pace/draw.

As for the others mentioned here, Wyvern is massively up in trip, bang out of form and will have too much work to do from the back, so he's out. Bass player makes little appeal other than his two-year place record and has run poorly in his last two, so he's also out. This leaves us with Isle of Sark, Ludo's Landing and Boasty. Boasty's certainly not my idea of a winner, Isle of Sark always finds one (or two) too good for him and his mark is rising without winning and Ludo's Landing is the weaker of the three form horses.

The Wednesday 4pm market looked like this with only Bet365 open...

11/4 looks a bit mean about Cavalluccio and I was rather hoping for something closer to 4/1, so I might keep my powder dry there. Isle of Sark is no price at 7/2 in my book for a horse that doesn't win and Ludo's Landing isn't backable from an E/W perspective either. I do however agree with the bookie's 1-2-3 and if I did have a bet here, it'd just be a small E/W play on Boasty to see if he can turn his front-running into a place.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.55 Perth
  • 4.17 Catterick
  • 5.15 Taunton
  • 5.20 Bellewstown
  • 5.25 Catterick
  • 5.50 Taunton

My personal preferred settings (you get to choose your own!) for the TS report...

...have yielded the following runners for me to consider...

Whilst the logical/preferred step for me is to marry up the daily feature with the the free race list, that would mean looking at Jersey Gem and the 5.15 Taunton, but 15-runner, Class 5, mares' handicaps aren't really my bag, but here are a few higher-rated races on that card, including a stayers' handicap from the list of free races aka the 5.50 Taunton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m 2f 57yds on good ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Shortcross Storm was a runner-up whilst Bbold, Airtothethrone and Jessie Lightfoot all finished third. Conversely, Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemen's Tipple and Kingsmill Gin were all pulled up on their most recent efforts, but Head and Heart and Kingsmill Gin did both won four races ago. Jessie Lightfoot and Shortcross Storm both won five races back, but the other five runners are winless in at least seven outings.

All four runners who were pulled up last time out (Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemens Tipple and Kingsmill Gin) are up a class today with Head and Heart sporting first-time blinkers. Airtothethrone wears cheekpieces for the first time and Jessie Lightfoot makes a second yard debut for Henry Oliver after three runs for Ewan Williams.

All nine have had at least one run in the last two months and aside from Bbold's appearance at Wincanton on Sunday, they've all had at least 17 days rest. Only Unblinking and Flemen's Tipple have yet to score over a similar trip to this one and two of the field have won here at Taunton already; Airtothethrone landed a three-mile handicap chase here in early December 2022, whilst one of Kingsmill Gin's two career wins (from 24 attempts!) was over this course and distance, albeit 13 races ago back December 2021!

Instant Expert tells me that Shortcross Storm has lost 13 of 15 good ground chases and that he's 0 from 7 at Class 4, whilst Airtothethrone and Kingsmill Gin both have half a dozen defeats to their names at this grade...

Kingsmill Gin has also struggled to win over similar trips to this one, despite that distant course and distance success mentioned earlier. The above doesn't necessarily mean that Airtothethrone, Kingsmill Gin and Shortcross Storm can't win here, who knows they might have just been unlucky? The place stats might tell us a bit more...

That's a better looking graphic if nothing else, but I've still reservations over Kingsmill Gin (going) and Shortcross Storm (class), but the others all seem to be well suited to at least making the frame and if you can make the frame, you've a 1 in 3 chance of winning! At this point, I'd normally refer to the pace stats to help me narrow the field down, but good ground staying chases here at Taunton don't seem to have that much of a pace bias...

Mid-division runners have an inexplicably poor return, but when all other running styles ahead of or behind mid-division have done pretty well, I have to say that it looks like a coincidental anomaly rather than a trend.

And whilst we don't expect the pace of the race to be the deciding factor here, this is how we think they might lead out, if they run how they've raced in their last few contests...

Summary

When the place stats/data doesn't give you much help in a NH handicap, you need to go back to what you know (form and Instant Expert past data) and what you think/feel ie your gut opinion. For me, this leads me back to Airtothethrone (placed in his last two and now back down to his last winning mark) and Jessie Lightfoot (3343 in her last four starts, back with her old yard and reunited with the last jockey to win on her) as my two against the field.

I wrote this piece early (it's now 2.25pm!) on Tuesday, as I've a function to attend to later and as such, no odds were available. I did prefer Airtothethrone slightly more than Jessie Lightfoot, but the market will dictate how/if I place any bets here. A tissue made up of the average of the forecast prices from Oddschecker, Timeform and Racing Post looked like this...

Jessie Lightfoot 4/1
Airtothethrone 9/2
Kingsmill Gin 7.33/1
Bbold 15/2
Flemen's Tipple 8.33/1
Unblinking 10.17/1
Shortcross Storm 11.17/1
Grove Road 11.33/1
Head And Heart 11.33/1

...and if that is anywhere near accurate, then I'd also have an interest in both Shortcross Storm and Head And Heart as E/W possibles. The former receives weight all round and might well run himself into a place by nicking a decent early soft lead. The latter is a bit of an enigma, she hasn't completed any of her last three (RO, PU, PU), but finished 13531 in her previous five. She's now only 2lbs higher than her last win and if in the mood, could go well. If only we knew and if only it'd rain a little for her!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/04/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and whilst none are perfect, the 7.30 Wolverhampton has two representatives above and might be interesting. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.45 Southwell
  • 3.20 Epsom
  • 3.30 Southwell
  • 5.10 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Tipperary

...and from all of those above, the highest-rated race is the 3.20 Epsom. It might only have seven runners, but it looks like a really competitive Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good ground...

Qitaal is the only LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three starts, whilst both Felix and Ziggy had top three finishes on their last outings. Ziggy has won two of his last five, but Felix has lost fifteen on the bounce in a run stretching back to January 2021. Silent Film has also failed to win since 2021 (June in this case), suffering eight losses on the spin despite the card denoted him as being a fast finisher. Crystal Delight has lost ten on the bounce since December 2022 and Western Soldier makes a UK turf debut after a win and a place in five hurdle contests, although his last three runs have been poor.

It's new yard debut day Crystal Delight and Western Soldier with the latter also wearing a tongue tie for the first time on his handicap debut as he returns to action following a wind op. Qitaal runs in a handicap for just the second time, a month after scoring at Doncaster on handicap debut defying a 687-day layoff! At 30 days since his last run, Qitaal is actually the quickest turned back out of the field, with none of his rivals being seen for over 9 weeks. Ziggy hasn't raced for 15 months!

Silent Film and Dual Identity have both ran here at Epsom before, but neither have won here and the former is one of just two, along with Western Soldier, yet to win over today's trip. From the limited amount of information carried by Instant Expert for this field...

...I have concerns over the win percentages of Silent Film and Dual Identity at this grade, whilst Crystal Delight looks generally weak. Qitaal's mark is now 6lbs higher than his LTO win, but that looks quite reasonable when you see that Dual Identity, Silent Film, Ziggy and Felix are all 7 to 15lbs higher than their own last winning marks on the Flat. Qitaal has never raced on good ground, but with a good to soft win and a good to firm place, there's no reason why he shouldn't 'get' the going here.

If we then look at the place stats...

...Silent Film's record at this level is unchanged, but Dual Identity has at least got himself out of the red on class. Ziggy' place form at going/distance is really interesting, but Felix seems to prefer 1m on turf, although he has a good place record at 1m1½f/1m2f on the A/W.

The draw stats are interesting here with those drawn in stalls 1-3 looking like they'd have the best of it...

...but the PRB3 figures also suggest that those drawn highest also have a great chance of making the frame, but I suspect that with only seven runners over a fair distance that the pace of the race will have a greater bearing on the outcome and of those 50-odd races above, it's clear to see what tactics have worked best...

Essentially, if you can lead, do so. If you can't get as close in as you can! Leaders and prominent runners make up approx 46% of the runners (171/372), but account for over 64% (34/53) of the winners and almost 55% (68/124) of the placers with those racing further back much less likely to succeed, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...suggests that the likes of Qitaal and Ziggy might be the ones setting the pace, but Felix looks well up against it, if he's going to race in the rear.

Summary

At the start, I said this looked competitive and it still looks that way, although not especially in a good sense. In-form Qitaal is the stand-out for me based on the 'evidence' above, but the others are all much of a muchness, if truth be told and you can make cases for and against all of them. The 4.30pm market looked like this...

...and the 11/4 about Qitaal seems fair (I had him at around 5/2). Western Soldier does look the least likely, but he's a 14/1 to 16/1 shot in my eyes, but I wouldn't entertain an E/W bet on him. there's no E/W pick from me here, but if pushed to pick one for the forecast, I think Dual Identity has the fewest negatives about him.

Racing Insights, Monday 22/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.22 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Windsor
  • 5.20 Windsor
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Tramore
  • 7.30 Kempton

...from which the highest rated UK race is the 6.00 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m2f on good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but General Medrano was third, Fringill Dike's last four runs have finished 111F, Issar D'Airy's last five are 13115, Alto Alto's last three read 112 and bottom weight Duhallow Tommy has finished 31112 in his last five, so quite a few have been in decent nick. Only Frere D'Armes is on a winless run of more than six races, having lost eight on the bounce. In his defence, they were all Class 1 and 2 races and he did win his last start at this level and is now only 2lbs higher than that win.

So, for me, the 'form' runners are General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade.

As above, Frere D'Armes now drops a class to run here, as do three others in the top six in the weights, Thelasthighking, Prince Escalus and Le Ligieren (trained by the Tizzards who won this race in both '22 and '23), whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are both up from Class 4 for this one, if they do turn out at all.

I suggest that Whodini and Charlie's Glance might not run, because they both ran on Saturday at Bangor, but in different races. The rest of their rivals have had at least three weeks rest with three of them, Prince Escalus, Another Crick and Fringill Dike returning from breaks of longer than seven weeks; 128, 163 and 186 days respectively to be precise! Prince Escalus' connections will hope that wind surgery during his layoff will help here along with a first-time tongue-tie.

We've not much in the way of previous course and/or distance form, but General Medrano. Le Ligieren and Duhallow Tommy have all won at a similar trip to this one, whilst Le Ligieren (2m5f chase) and Another Crick (2m4½f chase) are both former track winners with the class dropping Frere D'Armes our sole course and distance winner, albeit way back in November 2022!

As for other relevant past form, Instant Expert has the numbers as always...

...where Le Ligerien and Another Crick seem to have struggled to win races at this level. The former should like the going, though whilst Prince Escalus' good ground record isn't the best after quite a few attempts, but he is now rated 4lbs below his last win unlike Issar D'Airy and Thelasthighking who now run off marks 8lbs and 9lbs higher than their last win. Frere D'Armes looks dangerous albeit off a small sample size of races.

Irrespective of their ability to win the race, the place data from those races above should show us who might run a decent (if not ultimately successful) race...

...where Another Crick looks one of the least likely to get involved. Thelasthighking is interesting at this class of race with 4 places from 4 to go with a 2 from 2 track place record, but he's not my idea of a winner with that extra 9lbs to burden.

Monday's free Geegeez Gold feature is, of course, PACE and our unique pace analyser tells us that in similar past contests, leaders have accounted for 12.9% (32/248) of the runners, but have managed to win 31.8% (7/22) of the races and provide 20.6% (14/68) of the placers...

...so if possible, I want us to be on a horse that likes to lead or be up with the pace and we can make a reasoned assumption (guess?) as to who might lead, by looking at how the field have run in their last few races by allocating a score 4 to those that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for a mid-division positioning and 1 for those who were held-up as follows...

Fringill Dike is a confirmed front-runner and Le Ligierien also likes to be kept handy, whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are definite hold-up types.

Summary

The horses that I considered to be in the best form were General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade. All of these should be involved in the final mix and Frere D'Armes was one of few to catch the eye on Instant Expert along with Thelasthighking, but of the 'form' horses, Fringill Dike looks best suited from a pace perspective, so Fringill Dike is my tentative pick here at 6/1 based on this show at 6.15pm on Sunday...

Frere D'Armes and Duhallow Tommy should both run decent races, but if I was to think about an E/W bet, then Thelasthighking might well fit the bill at 10's. I was thinking about General Medrano at a similar price, but I'm worried that the ground/race might end up being a bit too quick for him.

Racing Insights, Saturday 20/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Ayr
  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 3.25 Bangor
  • 4.40 Brighton
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 7.05 Thirsk

And with all bar the 4.40 Brighton & the 4.45 Ayr from the free list also featuring in the TJC reports, it makes sense to stick with one of the other free races and of those four, two have too many runners for my liking, so I'll go with the highest-rated of the other two, the 1.50 Ayr where bottom-weight Donny Boy from above will contest a 13-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three mils on soft ground...

The bookies are paying four places or more here, so we might be able to spot a nice E/W option from a competitive-looking field including Marble Sands (2 wins from 4) and Maclaine as LTO winners, whilst Montgomery has won each of his last three. Young Buster was third after winning four out of five and Special Rate was also third after winning seven of his previous eight. Bottom weight Donny Boy is the only one without a win in six, having now been beaten in all ten starts since opening his career with a pair of wins.

None of these runners raced at Class 2 last time out with most stepping up from Class 3 to run here, but LTO winners Marble Sands and Maclaine are up two classes, whilst top weight Sharjah takes a step down after being well beaten at the Cheltenham Festival just over five weeks ago.

Most of the field raced around the same time with all bar Inch House and Young Buster (off for 70 & 84 days each) having raced in the past four to seven weeks. Deeper Blue and Donny Boy will both wear blinkers for the first time here, whilst it's a tongue-tie debut for Inch House and Ballycoose as they seek to return to winning ways.

Only Marble Sands, Ballycoose and Young Buster have visited Ayr before with just the latter failing to win here, but he is one of half a dozen (inc Inch House, Mofasa, Special Rate, Abuffalosoldier & Montgomery) who have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

I've set the Instant Expert parameters to show Class 3 form...

...as only Inch House (1 win and 1 place from 2) has tackled a Class 2 chase in the last five years. Sharjah is the sole previous Class 1 runner, having won a Grade 3 chase at Tipperary before failing to make the frame in four Grade 1 contests. From the above, you can see that Donny Boy has even struggled to win at Class 3, as has Deeper Blue. but the likes of Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery might well be the 'half' of the field to focus on, although Young Buster is 8lbs higher than his last win and a pound higher than his last run, where he was only third of seven in a Class 3 contest. Add in his twelve-week layoff and this might be a bit tough for him here, especially if he starts to blow a bit from attempting to set the pace, as his recent efforts suggest he might...

Sadly, I can't tell you whether those tactics might be good or bad, as there's very little data in the pace profiler for today's expected race conditions...

...so I'm going to rely on the quantifiable (form & Instant Expert) and the unquantifiable ie gut feeling!

Summary

The ones I took from Instant Expert were Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery from which Marble Sands, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery appear to be in the best form, so I'm going to take those four forward as I seek an E/W bet or two (three/four?). So let's look at the 7pm market...

...and I'm definitely interested in Montgomery and Marble Sands, with Montgomery probably being my winner today. Young Buster and Special Rate are more speculative, of course, but I think both are better than the odds might suggest and both are more than capable of making the frame here. Class dropping Sharjah might well get involved too.

Racing insights, Friday 19/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a couple of qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.20 Ayr
  • 2.42 Newbury
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 4.05 Fontwell
  • 4.55 Exeter
  • 5.37 Ballinrobe

...and as the highest-rated NH race in the UK not only appears on our 'free' race list, but also has a H4C runner, it mades perfect sense (to me anyway!) to focus on the 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Sadly, our featured runner Dubai Days is now a non-runner, but it's a decent race with or without him, so I'll carry on as planned with what still looks a super-competitive race with no less than six LTO winners. Only Heltenham (2 wins from 3), Take All (3rd LTO), Soul Icon (2nd LTO) and Half Shot (pulled up) failed to win their last race, whilst Prairie Wolf (three wins from four) and Jet Plane are both coming here seeking a hat-trick and all ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings.

Top weight Heltenham drops back down in class today after an Aintree Class 1 handicap defeat (which had been preceded by hcp wins at both C1 & C2), but Nells Son, Prairie Wolf, Soul Icon, Jet Plane and General Officer might all find this race a little tougher as they step up from good runs at Class 3. All ten should, though, be primed for the task in hand as all have had at least one run in the last seven weeks (Heltenham, Jet Plane and Take All have already raced this month).

Newly-scratched H4C runner Dubai Days would have been the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but all of the others bar General Officer and Nells Son have already scored over a similar trip, whilst the latter is the sole previous course winner here at Ayr, having gone unbeaten in a pair of 2m½f bumpers on heavy ground in the winter of 20/21. Instant Expert won't show those runs, of course, as they weren't over fences, but it does highlight that...

...the likes of Heltenham, Nells Son, Prairie Wolf and Numitor should be at home on soft ground, although the latter's record at Class 2 leaves something to be desired. Take All, Half Shot and in-form Jet Plane have struggled to land soft ground chases, although the latter has some form at this trip, as do most of his rivals. From the above, Half Shot looks most vulnerable here, although his place record is, like many of his rivals, decent...

Jet Plane's form on soft ground is now a concern and his overall career record on soft stands at just 2 wins and 1 place from 14 attempts! Half Shot still looks weak here, but does get weight all round and if he runs like he normally does, then I expect him to be well up with the pace, based on his last four efforts...

...with Heltenham (like Dubai Days would have been) a confirmed hold-up horse, but those tactics tend not to work here at Ayr, if past similar contests are anything to go by...

Summary

You could at the outset, make a case for most if not all of the field to put up a decent effort here, but if remove Soul Icon, Jet Plane and Half Shot based on Instant Expert data and Heltenham based on his pace profile, I'm down to six runners, which still isn't ideal. Take All is 0 from 6 on soft ground and has only made the frame twice, so I'd say he leaves here, leaving me with half of the the 10-runner field under consideration.

The conundrum for me here is that I really like Jet Plane, but can't back him based on his soft ground form and whilst I fear that decision coming back to bite me, the two I now like best of the five under consideration are the two at the top of the pace profiler, Outlaw Peter and Prairie Wolf, in that order. They were best priced at 9/2 and 11/2 respectively at 3.45pm, whilst the full market looked like this...

The other three left in my favoured half of the field, Nells Son, Numitor and General Officer are all closely matched on my reckoning and all could feasibly make the frame, but General Officer offers the most value for those of you looking for an E/W play in a tight/tricky race.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.50 Cheltenham
  • 4.17 Ripon
  • 5.10 Clonmel

...from which I'm heading to the 4.17 Ripon, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on heavy ground...

Last time results aren't great for this baker's dozen, with Illusionist's runner-up finish at Thirsk last week the only placed effort. He was only beaten by a short-head running on over 5f that day and off the same mark should be involved over the extra furlong. Almost half of this field are winless in seven or more races as Remarkable Force, Fools Rush In, Danzan, American Star, Illusionist and Braveheart Boy have beaten in each of their last 14, 19, 8, 10, 17 and 10 races respectively.

May Blossom, Remarkable force and Fools Rush In all make debuts for their new yards today and the latter has had wind surgery since his last outing. Most of these ran at Class 4 last time out, but Danzan drops down a class, whilst Thornaby Pearl steps up a grade.

Braveheart Boy is denoted on the card as being a fast finisher, but he might well need the run today after 244 days off the track, but he's not the only one without a run in the last eight weeks, as Bay Breeze, Danzan, Fools Rush In, May Blossom and American Star all return from breaks ranging from 166 to 201 days.

Most of the field have already won over today's trip, but May Blossom, Remarkable Force and Ey Up It's Maggie are the exceptions. the latter has, however, scored here at Ripon before now, albeit over 5f, whilst Bay Breeze, Fortamour and Thornaby Pearl have all won over course and distance as per feature of the day Instant Expert...

...which actually paints a fairly sorry picture. Bay Breeze and Fortamoour are both 4-time winners here at Ripon and have won five times at the trip, but there's not much to crow about here. A couple look interestingly weighted, as Illusionist and Fools Rush In are now rated at 15/16 pounds lower than their last win and Illusionist came very close last week, but I suspect/hope that the place stats give me more to work with...

...and they suggest that Danzan might be worth looking at from an E/W or place perspective here. Illusionist's case is further bolstered too. Course specialist Bay Breeze is in stall 1 today with the benefit of the rail alongside him, although as you'd expect on a straight run on difficult ground, there's not much advantage from any part of the stalls...

That's not the case from a pace perspective, though, as this is how those 28 races above have been won...

...which based on the field's more recent efforts is probably better news for those above the red line than below it...

Summary

He doesn't seem suited by that pace chart above, but Illusionist is probably the one to beat here, especially if he runs anything like he did last week. This is a pretty modest bunch of truth be told and the race shouldn't take that much winning. Elsewhere Bay Breeze loves this track, has the rail to keep him straight and should be up with the pace, so could be a possible E/W threat, as could Danzan, whose place stats on Instant Expert were probably the pick of the field, but you could probably make a tentative case for many of these, as they all seem much of a muchness.

The 5.00pm market from Bet365 (only book open) looked like this...

...and whilst I'm not surprised that Illusionist is the favourite, I was rather hoping he'd be a bit more attractively priced. That said, it's definitely his race to win/lose. Bay Breeze is too short to back E/W for my liking, but the 14's about Danzan is interesting, as is the same price about Grant Wood.

Not a race to dig too deep in the pocket for, mind.

2024 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends

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The bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes is the feature contest on the opening day of the Newmarket Craven Meeting and is a Group Three race run over 1m1f on Wednesday 17th April 2024.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats ahead of the 2024 renewal as the Charlie Appleby yard and jockey William Buick look to win the race for a third year in-a-row.

Recent Earl Of Sefton Stakes Winners

2023 - Ottoman Fleet 6/4 fav
2022 - Master Of The Seas 5/4 fav
2021 - My Oberon 7/1
2020 - Zabeel Prince 9/2 cfav
2019 - Forest Rnger 8/1
2018 - Calderon 10/1
2017 - Mahsoob 100/30

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Betting Trends

16/16 – Had won over a least a mile in the past
15/16 – Favourites placed in the top three
13/16 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
13/16 – Had raced at the track before (7 won)
12/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Won at least 3 times in the past
11/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won over 1m1f or further in the past
9/16 – Had won a Group/Listed race before
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Drawn in stalls 8 (3) or 10 (3)
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam
3/16 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
4/16 – Ridden by William Buick
1/16 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 2-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

 

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Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.05 Cheltenham
  • 2.52 Beverley
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 5.00 Cheltenham

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and course 5-year form...

To be honest, I'm not particularly taken with any of the seven races above, mainly to a lack of experienced horses, so I've decided to focus on what looks a fairly open race with E/W possibilities at Jumps HQ. The race in question is the 2.40 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f (16 fences) on good/good to soft ground...

Our sole LTO winner is Scarface and he comes here seeking a hat-trick having won three of his last four. Elsewhere only Do Your Job and Our Jet made the frame, both finishing third in 8-runner contests. Most of the field have won at least one of their last six outings, but Il Ridoto and In Excelsis Deo have both lost seven on the bounce.

Seven of the twelve runners were in Class 1 action last out, but in-form Scarface steps up from Class 2, as does LTO placer Do Your Job, whilst Presentandcounting, Idalko Bihoue and Our Jet all move from Class 3, which makes life tough here, especially if you've been off the track for 200 days like Presentandcounting has!

He's not the only one who might be in need of a run, as Idalko Bihoue, Final Orders and Hang In There also return from breaks of 113, 151 and 171 days respectively. The rest of the field have raced at least once in 2024, although Our Jet hasn't been seen for twelve weeks and Sail Away has had a two-month rest. The other half of the field have all been in action in the last five weeks.

Sail Away and In Excelsis Deo are the only runners yet to win over this kind of trip and although Hang In There (2m½f hurdle) and Idalko Bihoue (2m4f chase) are both former Cheltenham winners, only Il Ridoto and Torn and Frayed have scored over course and distance...

Instant Expert's overview of the field's chasing form over the last two years...

...suggests that Il Ridoto has failed to take the several chances offered to him at this class/track/trip, whilst Do Your Job would probably want more rain to fall. That said he's also 0/5 at Class 1, as is Torn And Frayed. Hang In There is interesting on going/trip, as is Scarface (a former Class 1 winner). The bookies will all pay at least four places on this race, so we should look at the place stats from the same races as above...

...which would seem to rule out the likes of Final Orders, In Excelsis Deo, Presentandcounting, Do Your Job and Torn And Frayed, suggesting that I focus on these seven runners all rated 5-8lbs higher than their last win...

...and I should probably remove Idalko Bihoue as the weakest of the seven, especially as he's been away for a while and is up two classes.

In the past, middle distance chases here at Cheltenham with medium-sized fields on good/good to soft ground have rewarded those brave enough to take the race on and set the tempo...

...with leaders claiming 32.65% of the wins and 20.42% of the places from just 12.23% of the runners, which looks like good news for Scarface, Gemirande and Our Jet from the six runners I'm still looking at...

...although I suspect that Idalko Bihoue might also want to get involved early doors.

Summary

Instant Expert helped me cut the field from twelve to six and whilst I personally think that Il Ridoto should be the horse to beat here, I fear that if he continues to race towards the back of the field, he'll struggle to make up ground although he did make the frame on three successive occasions over the winter by racing prominently/leading, so maybe his team will revert to those tactics. If that happens, then he'd be the one to beat and whilst his 11/2 ticket (as of 3pm Tuesday) is a fair price, it's essentially a punt on which tactics you think his team will employ.

Should he go on to win/place, then there are still three places (or more if you use SkyBet!) to aim for and with the market currently looking like this...

...the in-form Scarface looks a decent E/W option to Il Ridoto. Gemirande and Our Jet would be more speculative suggestions here, but I think both are better than those odds might suggest and both are capable of putting in a big run.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/04/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where the first pair would be of the most obvious interest and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.40 Naas
  • 3.30 Newmarket
  • 3.40 Ffos Las
  • 5.00 Naas

...and as I can't resist stayers' handicaps on difficult ground, it has to be In Rem and the 4.50 Ffos Las for me today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed three miles on heavy ground...

None of the eight managed to win last time out, but Ballymagroarty Boy, Mahland, Longshanks, In Rem, Fevertre and Monbari all made top three finishes. Mahland and Longshanks have been runners-up in each of their last two starts, whilst Fevertre has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.

Fevertre's recent good form might now be checked as he steps up a class to run here, but this contest might prove a little easier than Minella Blueway and Thunderclap's last outings as they both make a double drop down from Class 2 action last time. Mahland no runs in a handicap for the second time after a narrow half-length defeat at Exeter recently.

Ballymagroarty Boy and In Rem are the only two horses to have won at either track or trip and they have both, in fact, won here over course and distance with the former doing so four starts and four months ago when winning for the first time in five years, whilst In Rem won here in October 2021 at the start of a sequence of five consecutive victories over trips of 2m5½f to 3m2½f and as you'd expect from a runner on The Shortlist, he's the eyecatcher on Instant Expert...

...mind you, the bar looks to be set fairly low, as Minella Blueway is 0 from 4 on heavy ground; Ballymagroarty Boy, Longshanks and Fevertre have struggled to win Class 4 races and Ballymagroarty Boy's return at this trip is lamentable at 1 win from 14, but he has (somewhat surprisingly!) made the frame in nine of the thirteen defeats...

...numbers that in isolation give him a great chance of making the frame again, whilst Thunderclap and Monbari look a little vulnerable.

In the past, it has paid to be up with the pace here over hurdles at Ffos Las in contests of 2m6f and beyond on ground deemed as soft or 'worse'...

...which based on the field's more recent efforts could be good news for Mahland, Longshanks, Monbari and Ballymagroarty Boy...

...whilst featured runner In Rem led the way last time out before eventually finishing third at Exeter. He was three lengths behind the re-opposing runner-up, Longshanks, that day but is 3lbs better off today, suggesting the two might be much more closely matched here.

Summary

I though the 'best' two horses in the race might well be Mahland and Longshanks, but based on their last run and the weight adjustment here, In Rem will be closer to Longshanks. And it's Mahland, Longshanks and Fevertre who arrive here in the best form. In Rem was the immediate eyecatcher on Instant Expert, but it was hard to ignore Ballymagroarty Boy's place numbers and he also seems well suited by the pace profiling, as do Mahland, Longshanks and Monbari.

Based on the names featured in that quick summary above, Mahland and Longshanks are the ones who feature most, so should really be my 1-2 and I'd have them in that order. That said In Rem could well overturn the LTO placings with Longshanks and it's hard to ignore the place claims of Ballymagroarty Boy. Hopefully the market at 5.50pm will help me formulate any potential bet.

Having checked the odds, Mahland would still be my winner here, but I think 11/4 is a bit mean/short, so I'll pass on that option. 5/1 looks fair/reasonable about Longshanks, but I don't see him winning the race and 5/1 is no E/W price in my eyes, but that can't be said about the 9/1 and 10/1 being offered about In Rem and Ballymagroarty Boy respectively and I think a couple of small E/W plays there might be the call for me.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.50 Windsor
  • 3.42 Redcar
  • 4.20 Windsor
  • 6.30 Kempton

from which, I'm going to look at the 3.42 Redcar, a Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft/heavy ground. It's my first foray into the 2024 Flat campaign, so fingers crossed as I go through this card...

The top two on the card, Noble Order and Look Back Smiling both won last out with the the latter now on a hat-trick, whilst the former has won two of his last three. Of the remainder, only Shaladar and Titian are winless in six, having been beaten in their last twelve and eleven races respectively.

Shaladar is denoted as being a fast finisher (clearly not fast enough!) and he does have the benefit of having raced in this grade last time out, as do Legend of Leros and Ron O with the other seven all moving one class. Noble Order steps up from a win at Class 4, but Look Back Smiling, Pisanello, Spirit Genie, Spirit Genie, Thunder Roar, Titian and Clear Angel all drop down from Class 2.

After breaks of 117, 152 and 185 days respectively, you could say that Legend of Leros, Shaladar and Pisanello might be in need of a run and Legend of Leros was gelded during his break and now sports a tongue tie for the first time.

Legend of Leros is also one of three runners (along with Spirit Genie and Thunder Roar) yet to win over this trip, whilst Ron O is the only previous Redcar (and counrse and distance) winner in the field...

There's not a lot to write home about from Instant Expert above, but Thunder Roar should appreciate the underfoot conditions and he does come here off the back of an excellent season-opener in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, where he was only half a length behind Look Back Smiling (and is a pound better off here). Pisanello has struggle to win Class 3 races on turf (1 from 9). Ron O loves the mile track here at Redcar, where he is 2 from 3, but his overall profile is erratic and unreliable.

A quick look at the place stats only really serves to put another cross by the name of Legend of Leros...

...so we'll move swiftly to the data we have on draw and today's feature, pace.

It's not the biggest sample size I've ever worked with, but the data from past races here at Redcar show that horses drawn lowest have fared best over straight races...

...and if we look at the pace profile of those races, we see that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place...

...but the other three running styles have gone well enough with those just in behind the leader(s) doing best of all. The combined pace/draw heat map goes on to suggest that low-drawn runners who race in mid-division are the ones to beat...

...closely followed by low-drawn prominence, low-drawn leaders and mid-drawn prominent runners.

We already know our draw...

...and we can look back on the field's last few races to make an educated guess as to how they'll run today...

...giving us this...

Summary

Titian, Noble Order, Legend of Leros and Thunder Roar look the most likely from our pace/draw heat map, but Titian was only 14th of 18 in the Spring Mile where Look Back smiling and Thunder Roar finished 1-2. I don't see him making up over 16 lengths on that pair today, so he's a no from me; as was Legend of Leros from an early stage of my analysis.

We didn't glean much from Instant Expert today, but we did learn that Thunder Roar should love the underfoot conditions, coming here with a soft/heavy record reading 213112. He's also in good nick with two wins and two places from his last four outings and an overall 70% place record on turf. He's a pound better off with his LTO victor, Look Back Smiling, today and that must give him a great shout here. Whether he reverses the placings is unclear, but either way, I suspect that this pair will both have to play second fiddle to Noble Order, who defied a 15-month absence to win cosily back in February.

That said, Noble Order's a bit shorter than I hoped he might be, so I'd probably suggest that E/W plays on Look Back Smiling and/or Thunder Roar would be the play today, based the odds offered at 6.45pm Sunday.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.55 Newcastle
  • 1.05 Chelmsford
  • 1.30 Newcastle
  • 3.05 Aintree
  • 6.10 Wolverhampton
  • 7.20 Dundalk

...gives me a grand total of thirteen races to cover, including two Class 1 contests from the Grand National meeting. It'd be rude of me not to cover one of those (even if others more qualified to do so will be doing elsewhere on Geegeez) and if I'm going to do one, I might as well do the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle! It's on your cards as the 3.05 Aintree and 12 runners (4yo+) will tackle 13 hurdles over a left-handed trip of 3m 154yds on soft ground in the aim of winning £140k...

Botox Has, Hewick and Hiddenvalley Lake all won last time out, whilst Flooring Porter was second only to Teahupoo in the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham in a race featuring five of this field. Strong Leader was also in the frame on his last run, but is the only runner here not to win any of his last five starts.

All twelve raced in Class 1 races last time around and most have raced at least once in the last two months, but Champ & Strong Leader haven't been seen for eleven weeks, Hewick's last outing was his win in the King George on Boxing Day, whilst Proschema hasn't re-emerged since being pulled up before three out in this very race last year.

That race was won by Sire du Berlais, as it was in 2022 so the Elliott/Walsh Trainer/Jockey Combo will be seeking a hat-trick today and this triple Grade 1 12yo comes here off the back of a fine run at HQ. Champ has also won over this course and distance, whilst Crambo, Dashel Drasher, Proschema and Strong Leader have all also scored on this track, but the latter is the only runner here without a win over a similar trip...

...whilst Buddy One, Dashel Drasher, Proschema and Strong Leader have found top-level race wins hard to come by. Sire du Berlais' back to back wins in this race are reflected in the track stats and Flooring Porter has an excellent record over this type of trip. At first glance, Monkfish would be of interest, but he struggled in the Gold Cup last time out and wa susbsequently found to have bled, so I'd not be too keen on backing him here.

If truth be told, our pace analyser doesn't have much data for today's expected race conditions...

...but does seemingly suggest that a runner willing to take the race on would be of interest, which is good news for the likes of Flooring Porter...

...amongst a group who like to race prominently. Sire du Berlais, however, has taken to racing in the rear of late and this might prove his undoing (as well as his age etc) in his bid for a third successive win.

Summary

For me, this is Flooring Porter's race to win/lose. Second only to Teahupoo last time out, he looks set to control the tempo of the race from the front here and I think his current (3.15pm Friday) 7/2 odds look more than fair.

As for the places (and bookies will pay four here), I'd want at least 8/1 about a horse to make me interested, so let's look at the market...

To be honest, the first four in the odds could very well be the first four home, but it rarely works out that way. I don't rate Champ or Proschema's chances so if I was to take an E/W punt on one (or more) of...

...I think I'd probably put Botox Has ahead of Buddy One and Dashel Drasher. Strong Leader and Hewick are a little short at 9's and 11's for me, whilst Monkfish's run at the Gold Cup puts me off.

Racing insights, Friday 12/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Leicester
  • 2.33 Fakenham
  • 4.05 Aintree
  • 5.00 Leicester
  • 5.40 Dundalk

There's no UK racing better than Class 4 away from Aintree, I'm afraid and I'm loathe to tackle our free offering from Liverpool, as 24-runner handicaps really aren't my bag, so next best for us is the 2.33 Fakenham, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m5f on good ground...

Despite only five set to race, this actually looks a pretty competitive contest for a Class 4 chase away from the main meeting of the day, so let's have a look at the the runners...

SCENE ONE is two from five over fences, having won here over course and distance on chase debut five months ago. He won again at Market Rasen in January, but now looks in the grip of the assessor. He wore blinkers for the first time 3 weeks ago (4th of 8 at Newbury) and they're in place again here.

JACKS TOUCH is proving to be a better chaser (3 wins from 7) than he was over hurdles (0 from 6) and was a course and distance winner here just before Christmas. Ran poorly last time out (3 weeks ago) when pulled up at Ascot, but a bit too soon to write him off yet.

DO NO WRONG has won three of his last six over fences and comes here on a hat-trick after back to back three mile successes at Uttoxeter, albeit in the summer of 2023. Hasn't been seen for seven months, though, but if race ready would possibly be the one to beat today.

JIGGINSTOWN KING came to life around this time last year finishing 211 in April/May, including a course and distance success. He then completed his hat-trick after a 19-week break but struggled in two subsequent outings. He hasn't raced since Boxing Day and has had a wind operation during the lay-off, so he might be one to watch in a race or two's time.

INGENNIO absolutely trotted up to win here over course and distance at the start of the month, pulling 39 lengths clear in a seller that somewhat fell apart around the halfway mark. It's tough to analyse him on that performance alone, as this looks a much stronger race and he's now up 4lbs.

Instant Expert also confirms the competitiveness of this race, with all runners seemingly well suited to the predicted race conditions...

All five have, of course, scored over this trip. Do No Wrong hasn't raced here before but all his rivals have won over course and distance, so they all know how to win this kind of race, which has in the past really suited those runners keen to get on with things...

...which would seem to suit most of the field...

...as only Do No Wrong isn't used to setting the pace or racing prominently.

Summary

To be honest, when I started out on this one, I expected to be all over Do No Wrong, I think he's the best horse in the race, but this isn't the best race for him. He's been off the track a good while, he's carrying quite a bit more weight than last time and wouldn't appear to be suited by the pace profile. I'd love to be wrong here, but I can't see him winning this one although he will win others!

This leaves me with a problem, because I have reservations over all of the runners here, but I suppose I've got least against Jack's Touch. This race isn't as tough as the Ascot one he faced last time out, he has won over course and distance, he likes to get on with things (that Ascot race aside) and should be race ready. He's currently (5.05pm Friday) best priced at 4/1, but the market shows you how tricky this one is with no E/W option...

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.33 Taunton
  • 2.35 Limerick
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

...from which the clear highest-rated takes place just North of Liverpool city centre. The 3.30 Aintree is the Aintree Hurdle, a Class 1 (Grade 1 no less), 4yo+, hurdles contest over two and a half miles (plus 74 yards today for rail movements), taking in a dozen hurdles over a left handed track on soft ground, where one of these will trot away having netted just over £140k for their owner(s)...

Early indications are that this is expected to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe, who are both expected to go off shorter than 2/1. This is unattractive to me in terms of picking/backing a winner, based on my staking levels, but it does open the prospect of an E/W bet at 8/1 or bigger, so let's go!

Langer Dan and Mahons Glory both won last time out, but the latter is the only runner in this field not to run at Class 1 last time out, as he comes here off the back of a Boxing Day, Class 3 hurdle win at Kempton, but he has won two of his last five, whilst the former scored at Cheltenham, becoming the first horse to land the Coral Cup on more than one occasion.

All eight have won at least one of their last five with only Nicky Henderson's Marie's Rock failing to complete their last race. She's one of two mares in the race, both trained by Nick henderson, who has won this race four times in the last six years, including 2022 and 2023. Marie's Rock's jockey Nico de Boinville was in the saddle last year, steering Constitution Hill home to victory. The other mare is the consistent (5 wins and 5 places from 10) Luccia.

The two mares get a 7lbs weight allowance here in a race where the two market principals are best off at the weights ahead of Luccia after the allowances are factored in. Most of the field ran at the Cheltenham Festival a month ago, but Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe didn't visit HQ and last raced in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown almost ten weeks ago, finishing second and third respectively, 5.5 and 10/5 lengths behind State Man, who then went to Cheltenham to win our Champion Hurdle. Luccia was a gallant third that day, beaten by just 3.5 lengths.

Only Mahon's Glory has yet to race this year, but he is one of just two (alongside Langer Dan) to have won over this course and distance, although all bar Neman Lion and Luccia have won over today's trip, as per Instant Expert...

...that said, neither have raced at this trip! The above graphic suggests that of the favourites, Impaire should feel more at home on the soft ground but Bob Olinger is also 3 from 3 over fences on soft ground. Beacon Edge looks like he might be outclassed here and Mahons Glory will find it tough to challenge, but as I'm after an E/W bet, let's look at place data...

...where, as you'd expect, most fare pretty well. I think it's the end of the road here for Beacon Edge, Langer Dan, Mahon's Glory and Marie's Rock, though, as Nemean Lion and Luccia look better E/W prospects so far, unless there's something radical in the pace stats to make me change my mind. I'm aware that this last pair haven't raced at this trip before, but is it better or worse to have not raced at the trip than it is to have tried and failed?

As it stands, this field's recent races suggest that there might well be some decent early pace...

...whilst off an admittedly small sample size of similar past races here at Aintree, early pace does seem to be the best tactic...

Summary

I agree with the pre-race judgement that this is likely to be a two-horse race between the Irish raiders Bob Olinger and Impaire et Passe and if pushed for a verdict, I'd have Impasse et Passe ahead of Bob Olinger here, but I doubt there'll be very much in it.

As for the places, I envisage another tight battle between Luccia and Nemean Lion. Luccia has ticked more boxes during my analysis, but has never been beyond 2m1f, whilst Nemean Lion was a runner-up over 2m5½f earlier this year. I do like Luccia more than Nemean Lion and she's technically 5lbs well in, so if she stays the trip, she'd be my E/W option. The Wednesday 3.30pm market looked like this...

...with Nemean Lion looking attractively priced too. I'll take Luccia, but I might take the Lion too!

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Market Rasen
  • 3.52 Lingfield
  • 4.50 Leopardstown
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Market Rasen

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

and 30-day form...

A couple of our in-form trainers go head to head to head in the 3.40 Wolverhampton, whilst both Tom Lacey and Richard Hughes have runners in races from the free list. Dibble Decker's race is rated higher than the one featuring Sandy paradise, so I'm going to look at the 3.00 Market Rasen, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m 3f 139yds (after a 105yd rail movement) on good to soft / soft ground...

Jet Plane and William Cody both won last time out with the latter also finishing as a runner-up in five of his previous seven outings. Featured horse Dibble Decker was a runner-up on his last run, beaten by just a neck but did win two starts ago. Top-weight War Lord and Dreams of Home are the only ones without a win in their last five and they come here on losing runs of 12 and 10 races respectively.

War Lord will wear blinkers for the first time and does, however, drop down a class here as does The Big Bite, but Dreams of Home actually steps up a level, just like bottom-weight LTO winner William Cody. Gloire d'Athon might well need a run here, having been off the track since a 42-length defeat at Kempton in late November, whilst all his rivals have had a run in the last 25-39 days.

The out of form Dreams of Home is the only one yet to win over a similar trip to this one and Instant Expert's data from the field's previous efforts in this type of race looks like this...

We know War Lord has lost his last twelve and his record on this going and over this type of trip are really poor; his best efforts have been over 1m7½f to 2m½f, so I think today's trip will be beyond him, whilst The Big Bite hasn't won on anything softer than good since November 2020 and at the age of 11 he's not going to get any better. William Cody's chase win have been at Class 4 before today, but as the place stats show, he he hasn't been out of his depth in this grade despite being 0 from 3...

...and the perennial runner-up looks a good bet for a place if nothing else! On the evidence of that second graphic, you'd not want to be getting involved with War Lord, The Big Bite or Dreams of Home and if William Cody does what he normally does and finds one (or two!) too good for him, then is our winner going to come from Gloire D'Athon (who was poor LTO and hasn't raced for 19 weeks), featured horse Dibble Decker or LTO winner Jet Plane?

At this point, I'd normally ask the pace stats to help me out, but the data from past similar contests is inconclusive...

I know that it looks like leaders are the ones to be with, but the fact that prominent runners aren't as successful mid-division runners suggests that the data might not be rock solid for this type of race and that feeling is compounded when I look at the field's last four runs...

...where very few of them seem to have a consistent running style. Of the three that I mention as potential winners, Gloire D'Athon & Dibble Decker look like prominent runners and Jet Plane looks like a hold-up horse with neither of those style being favourable here. Jet Plane did set the pace two starts ago, of course and War Lord did so three races back, but this looks like a falsely run contest will be on the cards.

Summary

When I see a race that I think will be falsely run, I tend to revert to recent overall form and historical relevant form (ie Instant Expert) and all things considered, this brings me to Dibble Decker. He's in good nick, the yard are going well and he has raced to varying tactics in his recent races. He's the current (4.25pm) 3/1 favourite for the race with Hills, but I had him at 11/4 anyway, so that's a fair price.

I suspect that William Cody will be the 'bridesmaid' once again and may have to fend Jet Plane off to do so, but rather boringly I have to agree with the bookies 1-2-3 on this occasion.

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