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Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/05/24

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Wow! How is it May already? We kick the new month off with Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report, which is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following trio of qualifiers...

...30-day form...

...course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Pontefract
  • 4.00 Ascot
  • 4.15 Punchestown
  • 6.35 Punchestown
  • 7.15 Brighton

Yet for all those options above, none of the UK races are any better than Class 4! We've three races with more than one way in, so we'll take one of those, the 7.30 Kempton as our featured race. Recent course specialists Tate & Crisford(s) send Swift Victory and Labalaba respectively to take each other and and half a dozen more runners on in a Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

The top two in the weights, Swift Victory and Surveyor, along with Jayyaah were winners last time out and all three had been runners-up in their penultimate outing, so all three are clearly going well, as is Sennockian, whose runner-up finish at Wolverhampton a month ago ended his 100% (3 from 3) record on the A/W and with Mr Baloo having won three of his last five, we could be in a for a decent scrap here, although seven-race maiden Ebt's Guard might feel the pressure.

All three handicap debutants (Surveyor, Jayyash and Screaming Eagle) are up in class today, whilst Labalaba will make a second handicap appearance whilst wearing a first-time tongue-tie & hood on what will be his first run since being gelded during a 223-day lay-off.

That break is the longest of all eight runners and whilst Swift Victory and Ebts Guard have been rested for 163 and 189 days respectively, the majority of the field have raced in the past month.

As for relevant past form, we have Instant Expert below, of course and we've two former course and distance winners in the shape of Swift Victory and Jayyash, whilst Mr Baloo won here over 7f three weeks ago. Surveyor won over a mile at Lingfield last time out and Sennckian has won at Newcastle, Lingfield and Wolverhampton over 1m/1m½f this year already. The bottom three on the card, Labalaba, Screaming Eagle and Ebt's Guard have yet to win at either track or trip...

There's not a lot of data to work with, especially on the A/W, where Sennockian and Mr Baloo seem better suited in this grade than they have been on turf. Labalaba makes an A/W debut here and the bottom two on the card are both 0 from 2 on the A/W, but both have made the frame on both starts...

Mind you, all those with any A/W experience have decent place records, so that last graphic isn't overly helpful and sadly that's also the case when we try to work out which stall(s) would be the best to run from, as over the last 200 or so similar races, there's very little advantage to be gained from the draw when it comes to winning races, although those drawn lowest (Sennockian, Swift Victory, Jayyash) would appear to have a slightly better chance of making the frame...

If we then look at which tactics have worked best over those races, we see that the further forward a horse raced, the better its chances were of making the frame...

...but that prominent runners won slightly more often than leaders, but there's not much in it, if truth be told, probably just a couple of wins either side. What we do know is that leader/prominent runners have a win strike rate of 16.2% (mid-div/hold-up are at 9.1%) and a place strike rate of 40.4% (mid-div/hold-up are at 28.4%) and that they've won 57.9% of the races and provided 52.2% of the placers, despite only making up 43.5% of the total number of runners, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...could be good news for Labalaba, Surveyor and Sennockian in particular.

Summary

You could very easily make a case for most of these here and whilst Labalaba could have every chance, the lay-off and an A/W debut is a worry. In fact, I think I want to focus on those with a recent run, so that takes Swifts Victory and Ebt's Guard out of the equation too. Screaming Eagle is 0 from 3 so far and has been beaten twice here at Kempton, including as a short-priced favourite last time out. Those two Kempton races haven't generated winners and they look weak in retrospect, so the Eagle won't land here for me.

This leaves me with four (Surveyor, Sennockian, Mr Baloo and Jayyash) to consider and all have run well recently with Sennockian probably the form pick ahead of Mr Baloo. Jayyash is the only course and distance winner and Mr Baloo has yet to win over the trip, although he has won here. We didn't get much from the draw stats, although those drawn lowest (Sennockian & Jayyash) would appear to have a slightly better chance of making the frame, whilst the pace data pointed us towards Surveyor and Sennockian.

There's probably very little to choose between the four of them, but if pushed, I think I'd have them as Surveyor / Jayyash / Mr Baloo / Sennockian and with the 4.55pm market looking as follows...

I think I'd have a small go at Surveyor with E/W plays on both Mr Baloo and Sennockian.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/04/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Rajindri would be of most obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.00 Brighton
  • 3.40 Punchestown
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Catterick

...from which I think I will have a look at the 4yr old Rajindri and the other 10 runners in the 5.00 Yarmouth, which is a Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to soft ground...

Nighteyes was the only one of these to have won last time out, but Rajindri was a runner-up and is two from four, whilst Queens Reign, Bella Bisbee and Royal Elysian all won their penultimate starts with the latter also finishing third last time out, as did Rating and Elderflower.

Top-weight Conservatonist drops down a class for his debut for Kevin Ryan, Shin Jihai drops down two classes for her second crack at a handicap and Queen's Reign makes her handicap bow, 3 classes lower than her Group 3 defeat (Solera Stakes) last time out.

Going the other direction are Bella Bisbee and Elderflower who both step up one class for their handicap debuts, whilst it's handicap debut day for Nighteyes and a second attempt for Baileys Pola Dot (after a recent wind op), Bigger than Giga and Royal Elysian.

In fact only Conservationist, Rajindri and Rating have more than one handicap run under their belts and Rating is the horse turned back out quickest, just a fortnight after finishing third of nine at Newmarket. Royal Elysian and Bella Bisbee both ran three and four weeks ago respectively, whilst Baileys Polka Dot (72 days off) is the only other filly to have raced on 2024.

Elderflower was in action just before Christmas last year, but Shin Jihai, Conservationist, Rajindri, Bigger Than Giga, Queens Reign and Nighteyes have all been absent for seven moths or more and might well need the run!

Rajindri is the only one of the field to have raced here at Yarmouth before and he's a course and distance winner, but Queen's Reign, Bigger Than Giga and Shin Jihai have also won over this trip, as shown on a rather depleted-looking Instant Expert...

...dominated as you'd expect by Rajindri from TS. That said, the field only have 52 races between them so far and just 10 wins, so I'm hoping to get a bit more help from the place data...

...which again confirms Rajindri's liking of the expected conditions, but most of them show up well and I wouldn't write any of them off just yet, but Conservationist, Rajindri, Nighteyes and Rating edge it here for me (high percentages off more than just one run!).

I didn't get as much assistance as I'd hoped for from Instant Expert, which is a shame as I'm not expecting much help from the draw stats. Surely there's not much draw bias in a straight seven furlongs here?

Hmmm, not a huge bias, but it would appear that stalls 1 to 5 might well be the place to be, based on an admittedly fairly small sample size, which could potentially be good news for Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower. If we then see how those races above were won...

...the inference is quite clear. You need to get on with things early doors here at Yarmouth with those racing prominently or leading going on to provide 57.7% of the winners and 44.2% of the placed horses from just 39.3% of the runners with leaders winning far more than their fair share, so if any of Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower are front-runners, they could be expected to go well.

Now, we never who might lead, but by looking at how horses have raced in the past, we can sometimes make a judgment call as to how a race might pan out, so let's look at this field's most recent efforts...

...where Conservationist, Nighteyes, Rating and Queen's Reign would be the ones to take from here and this quartet will emerge from stalls 11, 1, 9 and 2 respectively.

Summary

If we start with recent form, then Nighteyes, Rajindri, Queens Reign, Bella Bisbee, Royal Elysian, Rating and Elderflower all merit a second look and it was Conservationist, Rajindri, Nighteyes and Rating who caught my eye most from Instant Expert.

We then moved to the draw and ace stats and from past similar races, stalls 1 to 5 (Nighteyes, Queen's Reign, Rajindri, Bella Bisbee and Elderflower) were deemed the best places to be drawn for a race that suits leaders and prominent runners. From the field's last few races, Conservationist, Nighteyes, Rating and Queen's Reign seem most likely to be setting the tempo.

It's very rare that a horse ticks all the analysis boxes for me, but one horse keeps popping up here and that's Nighteyes. I do have some concerns about her nine-month layoff, but having looked at the market at 5.45pm on Monday...

...I'd be happy with 10/1 as an E/W option.

Rating and Rajindri also ticked several boxes and I suspect they'll both go well and this could easily be the day that Rating finally gets off the mark after eight defeats, She has been close of late, finishing 233 in her last three outings and should come on for having had a run earlier this month. Rajindri has conditions to suit here, too and should be in the mix if race-ready after a break.

Racing Insights, Monday 29/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.00 Ayr
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 7.39 Windsor
  • 7.50 Naas
  • 9.00 Wolverhampton

If truth be told, none of the three UK races above appeal to me for one reason or another (never bet in a race that doesn't interest you!), so I'm going to look at the highest-rated/most valuable UK race of the day, the 6.39 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on soft ground...

Early indications/thoughts are that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) top-weight Asgard's Captain, fast-finisher Fast Steps and sole LTO winner Mythical Guest, but let's have a closer look to see what we can find.

Mythical Guest was indeed the only one these nine runners to win last time out, but Fast Steps and First Officer were both runners-up and Asgard's Captain has won three of his last four before going down by four lengths at Lingfield on Good Friday. On the other hand, Enthrallment, Fast Steps and Grey Fox are on losing runs, having been beaten in their last 12, 7 and 8 races respectively.

Fast Steps' and Grey Fox's hopes of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by a step up in class here and LTO winner Mythical Guest is also up from Class 5, but Asgard's Captain, The Whipmaster and First officer all step down a level. Only four of the field have raced in the past month, as Enthrallment, Silver Gunn, First Officer, The Whipmaster and Grey Fox return from respective breaks of 101, 144, 178, 178 and 228 days.

Enthrallment has moved yards during his layoff and is the only one of the nine without a win at a similar trip to this one and of the five to have raced here at Windsor before, only Mythical Guest has failed to win, as The Whipmaster scored here over 1m3½f last June and Silver Gunn, Fast Steps & Grey Fox are all former course and distance winners. This info is shown on Instant Expert, along with details of three former soft ground winners...

...there's no real standout candidate there, but Silver Gunn's numbers are pretty decent. I should refer to Asgard's Captain now being some 34lbs higher than his last win, too. He is indeed running off 89 which is 34lbs higher than the 49 he was rated when winning at Musselburgh in August 2023. Since then, he had a twenty-week break before racing solely on the A/W this year finishing 1521118 winning off marks of 63, 68, 73 and 79, so he's 'only' 4lbs higher than his last actual win and could be weighted nicely if bringing his A/W game to the Turf.

Our draw analyser suggests that those drawn lowest here might be at a disadvantage from a win perspective...

...but have as good a chance of any of making the frame and if we look at how those 40-odd races were won, we find that those prepared to set the pace have been the most successful...

...and if recent races are anything to go by...

...Asgard's Captain could very well be afforded an easy early lead.

Summary

The draw/pace stats suggest a high draw coupled with a willingness to lead could be the perfect storm here with 6 high drawn leaders from 14 making the frame with 4 (28.57%) going on to win...

Asgard's Captain is drawn highest of all and tops the pace chart, he has won 6 of his last 10, 5 of his last 8 and 3 of his last 4 and was a winner on his last outing in this grade, so it's Asgard's Captain at 7/2 (Sunday 5pm) for me here.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 27/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Leicester
  • 2.37 Leicester
  • 3.20 Haydock
  • 3.27 Navan
  • 3.35 Sandown
  • 6.10 Doncaster

The three Sandown races above are decent quality, but have too many runners for my liking, but there are still a couple of Class 2 handicaps to choose from and at the risk of not Looking for Lynda in the 5.50 Ripon, I've opted for the 2.05 Leicester, a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile (plus fifty-three yards) on soft ground that will be heavy in places...

None of the nine managed to win last time out, but Thunder Roar was a half-length runner-up at Doncaster for his fifth successive top-three finish (inc two wins). Bottom weight Big Bear Hug was third for the second race in a row and she has a win and three places from her last five. Dashing Roger is two from four, Look Back Smiling is two from three and Magic Memories was a winner three starts ago.

Big Bear Hug's excellent recent form has all been at Class 5 and she's up three classes here, which will make life much tougher, as will the two-class rise for Selwan who runs for Ian Williams for the first time today. Al Mubhir won this race last year and now steps down in class to defend his crown off a mark 7lbs higher than last year in his first outing since being gelded.

Four of this field raced against each other to varying shades of defeat a week ago and two last raced five weeks ago. Selwan had had a two-month rest, but Al Mubhir hasn't been seen f0r over twenty weeks. Miss Cantik makes a UK debut today some 154 days since finishing 11th of 18 in 1m2f Listed contest at Fontainebleau. Prior to that run she was two from two over a mile and was a Listed class runner-up over 1m1f at Longchamp.

Al Mubhir's not the only course and distance winner in the field though, as Big Bear Hug also acheived the feat almost a year ago, albeit in a Class 6 handicap off a mark some 19lbs lower than today! Raadobarg, Miss Cantik (who wears a hood for the first time today), Look Back Smiling and Magic Memories have all also scored at this trip, whilst Raadobarg and Look Back Smiling have also both won on this track over 7f...

Dashing Roger has struggled to win races over the last couple of years, even if he did win three and four starts ago. Prior to those two wins, he hadn't won any of eleven since August 2021, so whilst he's two from four, he's also two from fifteen! Thunder Roar will be suited by the soft ground and he's also a former heavy ground winner, as is Al Mubhir. Al Mubhir has struggled to win Class 2 races despite winning this one a year ago and Look Back Smiling's win record over today trip is pretty poor at just 1 win from 8 and the place stats show that he only made the frame in 2 of the 7 defeats...

...stats that put Dashing Roger out of my consideration for now. Al Mubhir won this last year, of course, but his number don't really suggest a repeat performance and the takeaway from this place data would be Thunder Roar, who finds himself drawn out in stall eight with only Raadobarg outside him, which is a bit of a worry because last year's race was won from stall 1 and our draw analyser suggests that stalls 1 to 5 are the place to be here...

...with those 91 races being dominated by horses who like to lead...

...so much so that the running style/pace of the race seems more important the draw today, as suggested by our pace/draw heat map...

We can then look at how our field have approached their last few races...

...and from this, I suspect that Al Mubhir and Dashing Roger will be the ones most likely to take the race on.

Summary

Mid to high-drawn front runners are supposedly the ones to back here and last year's winner Al Mubhir fits that bill nicely. He's also a fairly short favourite for such a competitive race, but I just don't get it/him today. I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself, but he's 7lbs higher than year and hasn't won since and with this being a stronger renewal, I just can't back him at these (Friday 5.15pm) odds...

...and I think Thunder Roar offers me more value at 9/2, whilst Look Back Smiling seems like a decent E/W prospect at 8/1.

Racing Insights, Friday 26/04/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just one qualifier, but your own chosen parameters might give even more joy...

This free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.23 Doncaster
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.40 Perth
  • 3.25 Cork
  • 5.35 Cork
  • 5.40 Chepstow

...with the best (on paper, at least!) of these being the 2.25 Sandown, a 7-runner, Group 3 Flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good ground and here's how they line up...

As you'd hope of a race of this standard, it looks very competitive and the bookies think (at 2pm Thursday) that it will be a tight 4-way affair here and I'm initially inclined to agree...

...my job, I assume, is to try and find which of the four ticks most boxes.

Checkandchallenge and Tasman Bay both won last time out, but the latter was winning for the first time after eight defeats and 'only' won a Class 3 handicap, so this is much tougher. The 'form' horse here is Okeechobee who has yet to finish outside of the first two home and was a Listed class runner-up last time out. Desert Hero has two wins and an LTO third place in the St Leger from his last three starts and all seven have won at least one of their last five.

Tasman Bay is the only one to have raced at Class 1 last time and at 19 days off, he's the quickest back onto the track. Okeechobee raced 25 days ago, but the others haven't been seen for 174 to 344 days, during which time Artistic Star, Desert Hero and Flying Honours were all gelded (this is Okeechobee's second run after the same op). Israr was a very good second of eight in an Ascot group 3 race on his last UK run back in October and now wears blinkers for the first time and if they go at a dawdle today, that might help Desert Hero late on, as he's denoted as a fast finisher.

Desert Hero is, however, the only one in the field yet to win at this trip although he has won over 1m1f. Two of the seven have won here at Sandown previously; Artistic Star won a Class 2 Novice race over course and distance almost a year ago, whilst Flying Honours scored over a much shorter 7f here in a Class 4 Novice contest back in July 2022. Israr, Okeechobee and Tasman Bay are yet to step foot on this track, as seen on Instant Expert...

...which shows the afore-mentioned Flying Honours in a really good light and looks best suited of the four market leaders. That said, Okeechobee has only one turf run to his name so far and that was a very comfortable Class 2 handicap success over today's trip.

The draw stats from previous similar races here at Sandown suggest that those drawn highest might fare best...

...but I am cautious about the effect of the draw over 1m2f with a small field, but if it bears true, Israr is the biggest beneficiary of the four principals here, although they occupy stalls 2, 4 and 5 so they're hardly spread out. Pace, however, is a different matter entirely and of the four expected to be in the mix, Okeechobee looks the most likely to set the pace, Flying Honours tends to run in mid-division with Desert Hero and Israr further back...

...although Desert Hero did lead four starts ago in what turned out to be his worst race to date, so I doubt he'll be up front here! If we look at back at those races we took the draw stats from, we're informed that leaders and especially prominent stalkers are the ones to be with...

...which probably gives a slight advantage to Okeechobee.

Summary

The market and I both think this is a four-horse race and of the four tightly grouped at the head of the market, I think I like Okeechobee best of the four, despite his inexperience on grass. He's had a recent run unlike the other three, brings the best set of results to the table and should be well suited by the pace of the race.

There's not much to choose between the other three, but if pushed to put them in order, I'd probably go Okeechobee / Israr / Desert Hero / Flying Honours, but that's not a tip!

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/04/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 5.05 Beverley
  • 5.10 Huntingdon
  • 5.40 Beverley
  • 6.52 Wexford
  • 9.00 Chelmsford

You can tell the nights are getting longer when we've got races at 9pm and that race is probably the best of the free races for me to cover, so let's head off to Essex for that 9.00 Chelmsford contest, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Fearless Bay is our sole LTO winner, but that run/win was 18 months ago, so I'm not it's a relevant form pointer. Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing were all third recently and all three come here in decent form; Isle of Sark has made the frame in six of his last seven despite not winning, Cavalluccio is 31621233 in his last eight and Ludo's Landing has been third in each of his last two outings.

As stated above, Fearless Bay hasn't been seen since winning at Southwell in October 2022 and both Wonder Starelzaam and Obsidian Knight have been off the track for over eight months, whilst the other seven runners here have all raced in the last two to four weeks.

As well as possibly being rusty, Wonder Starelzaam won't be helped by a step up in class and Wyvern and Boasty also step up a level here, but Bass Player is down one grade for this one.

Isle of Sark, Bass Player, Wyvern and Ludo's Landing have yet to win over this trip, whilst Fearless Bay, Cavalluccio and Boasty have all won over course and distance in the past, but four of this field have never been to Chelmsford before, as shown below on the Instant Expert feature...

...which seems to suggest a big run is coming from Fearless Bay and had this not been a comeback run, I'd have been all over those numbers, but the lay-off is a big concern for me. Visibility and Boasty's joint return of 8 wins from 88 standard going races makes them look vulnerable here and added to a 1 from 17 record at Class 4, Visibility joins Fearless Bay as a horse I just can't back here and this decision looks vindicated by his two-year place stats (also from Instant Expert)...

...from which, I'd probably only want to focus on the following...

...giving me runners in stalls 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 10, so a wide spread for a race that has, in the past, favoured those drawn in stalls 1-3 for win purposes and those in 1-7 for the places...

...BUT I'm of the opinion that over a trip beyond a mile here at Chelmsford that it's pace that wins the race and that doesn't always mean how fast they go. I'm referring to the whole pace of the race, the tactics/running styles used etc and if we look back over those races from the draw analysis above, we see the usual Chelmsford ace bias in operation...

Irrespective of draw here, you've really got to be up with a pace to give yourself the best chance of winning and based in the field's last few runs...

...Boasty and Ludo's Landing might be the ones to set the fractions.

Summary

Isle of Sark, Cavalluccio and Ludo's Landing are the ones bringing the best recent form to the table and all three emerged unscathed from Instant Expert along with Bass Player, Wyvern and Boasty. Wyvern and Boasty seem to have the best draw with the latter fitting the pace profile best of all.

For me, it's Cavalluccio's race to win/lose, he's the form horse and isn't badly treated on pace/draw.

As for the others mentioned here, Wyvern is massively up in trip, bang out of form and will have too much work to do from the back, so he's out. Bass player makes little appeal other than his two-year place record and has run poorly in his last two, so he's also out. This leaves us with Isle of Sark, Ludo's Landing and Boasty. Boasty's certainly not my idea of a winner, Isle of Sark always finds one (or two) too good for him and his mark is rising without winning and Ludo's Landing is the weaker of the three form horses.

The Wednesday 4pm market looked like this with only Bet365 open...

11/4 looks a bit mean about Cavalluccio and I was rather hoping for something closer to 4/1, so I might keep my powder dry there. Isle of Sark is no price at 7/2 in my book for a horse that doesn't win and Ludo's Landing isn't backable from an E/W perspective either. I do however agree with the bookie's 1-2-3 and if I did have a bet here, it'd just be a small E/W play on Boasty to see if he can turn his front-running into a place.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.55 Perth
  • 4.17 Catterick
  • 5.15 Taunton
  • 5.20 Bellewstown
  • 5.25 Catterick
  • 5.50 Taunton

My personal preferred settings (you get to choose your own!) for the TS report...

...have yielded the following runners for me to consider...

Whilst the logical/preferred step for me is to marry up the daily feature with the the free race list, that would mean looking at Jersey Gem and the 5.15 Taunton, but 15-runner, Class 5, mares' handicaps aren't really my bag, but here are a few higher-rated races on that card, including a stayers' handicap from the list of free races aka the 5.50 Taunton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m 2f 57yds on good ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Shortcross Storm was a runner-up whilst Bbold, Airtothethrone and Jessie Lightfoot all finished third. Conversely, Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemen's Tipple and Kingsmill Gin were all pulled up on their most recent efforts, but Head and Heart and Kingsmill Gin did both won four races ago. Jessie Lightfoot and Shortcross Storm both won five races back, but the other five runners are winless in at least seven outings.

All four runners who were pulled up last time out (Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemens Tipple and Kingsmill Gin) are up a class today with Head and Heart sporting first-time blinkers. Airtothethrone wears cheekpieces for the first time and Jessie Lightfoot makes a second yard debut for Henry Oliver after three runs for Ewan Williams.

All nine have had at least one run in the last two months and aside from Bbold's appearance at Wincanton on Sunday, they've all had at least 17 days rest. Only Unblinking and Flemen's Tipple have yet to score over a similar trip to this one and two of the field have won here at Taunton already; Airtothethrone landed a three-mile handicap chase here in early December 2022, whilst one of Kingsmill Gin's two career wins (from 24 attempts!) was over this course and distance, albeit 13 races ago back December 2021!

Instant Expert tells me that Shortcross Storm has lost 13 of 15 good ground chases and that he's 0 from 7 at Class 4, whilst Airtothethrone and Kingsmill Gin both have half a dozen defeats to their names at this grade...

Kingsmill Gin has also struggled to win over similar trips to this one, despite that distant course and distance success mentioned earlier. The above doesn't necessarily mean that Airtothethrone, Kingsmill Gin and Shortcross Storm can't win here, who knows they might have just been unlucky? The place stats might tell us a bit more...

That's a better looking graphic if nothing else, but I've still reservations over Kingsmill Gin (going) and Shortcross Storm (class), but the others all seem to be well suited to at least making the frame and if you can make the frame, you've a 1 in 3 chance of winning! At this point, I'd normally refer to the pace stats to help me narrow the field down, but good ground staying chases here at Taunton don't seem to have that much of a pace bias...

Mid-division runners have an inexplicably poor return, but when all other running styles ahead of or behind mid-division have done pretty well, I have to say that it looks like a coincidental anomaly rather than a trend.

And whilst we don't expect the pace of the race to be the deciding factor here, this is how we think they might lead out, if they run how they've raced in their last few contests...

Summary

When the place stats/data doesn't give you much help in a NH handicap, you need to go back to what you know (form and Instant Expert past data) and what you think/feel ie your gut opinion. For me, this leads me back to Airtothethrone (placed in his last two and now back down to his last winning mark) and Jessie Lightfoot (3343 in her last four starts, back with her old yard and reunited with the last jockey to win on her) as my two against the field.

I wrote this piece early (it's now 2.25pm!) on Tuesday, as I've a function to attend to later and as such, no odds were available. I did prefer Airtothethrone slightly more than Jessie Lightfoot, but the market will dictate how/if I place any bets here. A tissue made up of the average of the forecast prices from Oddschecker, Timeform and Racing Post looked like this...

Jessie Lightfoot 4/1
Airtothethrone 9/2
Kingsmill Gin 7.33/1
Bbold 15/2
Flemen's Tipple 8.33/1
Unblinking 10.17/1
Shortcross Storm 11.17/1
Grove Road 11.33/1
Head And Heart 11.33/1

...and if that is anywhere near accurate, then I'd also have an interest in both Shortcross Storm and Head And Heart as E/W possibles. The former receives weight all round and might well run himself into a place by nicking a decent early soft lead. The latter is a bit of an enigma, she hasn't completed any of her last three (RO, PU, PU), but finished 13531 in her previous five. She's now only 2lbs higher than her last win and if in the mood, could go well. If only we knew and if only it'd rain a little for her!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/04/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and whilst none are perfect, the 7.30 Wolverhampton has two representatives above and might be interesting. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.45 Southwell
  • 3.20 Epsom
  • 3.30 Southwell
  • 5.10 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Tipperary

...and from all of those above, the highest-rated race is the 3.20 Epsom. It might only have seven runners, but it looks like a really competitive Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good ground...

Qitaal is the only LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three starts, whilst both Felix and Ziggy had top three finishes on their last outings. Ziggy has won two of his last five, but Felix has lost fifteen on the bounce in a run stretching back to January 2021. Silent Film has also failed to win since 2021 (June in this case), suffering eight losses on the spin despite the card denoted him as being a fast finisher. Crystal Delight has lost ten on the bounce since December 2022 and Western Soldier makes a UK turf debut after a win and a place in five hurdle contests, although his last three runs have been poor.

It's new yard debut day Crystal Delight and Western Soldier with the latter also wearing a tongue tie for the first time on his handicap debut as he returns to action following a wind op. Qitaal runs in a handicap for just the second time, a month after scoring at Doncaster on handicap debut defying a 687-day layoff! At 30 days since his last run, Qitaal is actually the quickest turned back out of the field, with none of his rivals being seen for over 9 weeks. Ziggy hasn't raced for 15 months!

Silent Film and Dual Identity have both ran here at Epsom before, but neither have won here and the former is one of just two, along with Western Soldier, yet to win over today's trip. From the limited amount of information carried by Instant Expert for this field...

...I have concerns over the win percentages of Silent Film and Dual Identity at this grade, whilst Crystal Delight looks generally weak. Qitaal's mark is now 6lbs higher than his LTO win, but that looks quite reasonable when you see that Dual Identity, Silent Film, Ziggy and Felix are all 7 to 15lbs higher than their own last winning marks on the Flat. Qitaal has never raced on good ground, but with a good to soft win and a good to firm place, there's no reason why he shouldn't 'get' the going here.

If we then look at the place stats...

...Silent Film's record at this level is unchanged, but Dual Identity has at least got himself out of the red on class. Ziggy' place form at going/distance is really interesting, but Felix seems to prefer 1m on turf, although he has a good place record at 1m1½f/1m2f on the A/W.

The draw stats are interesting here with those drawn in stalls 1-3 looking like they'd have the best of it...

...but the PRB3 figures also suggest that those drawn highest also have a great chance of making the frame, but I suspect that with only seven runners over a fair distance that the pace of the race will have a greater bearing on the outcome and of those 50-odd races above, it's clear to see what tactics have worked best...

Essentially, if you can lead, do so. If you can't get as close in as you can! Leaders and prominent runners make up approx 46% of the runners (171/372), but account for over 64% (34/53) of the winners and almost 55% (68/124) of the placers with those racing further back much less likely to succeed, which based on this field's most recent outings...

...suggests that the likes of Qitaal and Ziggy might be the ones setting the pace, but Felix looks well up against it, if he's going to race in the rear.

Summary

At the start, I said this looked competitive and it still looks that way, although not especially in a good sense. In-form Qitaal is the stand-out for me based on the 'evidence' above, but the others are all much of a muchness, if truth be told and you can make cases for and against all of them. The 4.30pm market looked like this...

...and the 11/4 about Qitaal seems fair (I had him at around 5/2). Western Soldier does look the least likely, but he's a 14/1 to 16/1 shot in my eyes, but I wouldn't entertain an E/W bet on him. there's no E/W pick from me here, but if pushed to pick one for the forecast, I think Dual Identity has the fewest negatives about him.

Racing Insights, Monday 22/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.22 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Windsor
  • 5.20 Windsor
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Tramore
  • 7.30 Kempton

...from which the highest rated UK race is the 6.00 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m2f on good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but General Medrano was third, Fringill Dike's last four runs have finished 111F, Issar D'Airy's last five are 13115, Alto Alto's last three read 112 and bottom weight Duhallow Tommy has finished 31112 in his last five, so quite a few have been in decent nick. Only Frere D'Armes is on a winless run of more than six races, having lost eight on the bounce. In his defence, they were all Class 1 and 2 races and he did win his last start at this level and is now only 2lbs higher than that win.

So, for me, the 'form' runners are General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade.

As above, Frere D'Armes now drops a class to run here, as do three others in the top six in the weights, Thelasthighking, Prince Escalus and Le Ligieren (trained by the Tizzards who won this race in both '22 and '23), whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are both up from Class 4 for this one, if they do turn out at all.

I suggest that Whodini and Charlie's Glance might not run, because they both ran on Saturday at Bangor, but in different races. The rest of their rivals have had at least three weeks rest with three of them, Prince Escalus, Another Crick and Fringill Dike returning from breaks of longer than seven weeks; 128, 163 and 186 days respectively to be precise! Prince Escalus' connections will hope that wind surgery during his layoff will help here along with a first-time tongue-tie.

We've not much in the way of previous course and/or distance form, but General Medrano. Le Ligieren and Duhallow Tommy have all won at a similar trip to this one, whilst Le Ligieren (2m5f chase) and Another Crick (2m4½f chase) are both former track winners with the class dropping Frere D'Armes our sole course and distance winner, albeit way back in November 2022!

As for other relevant past form, Instant Expert has the numbers as always...

...where Le Ligerien and Another Crick seem to have struggled to win races at this level. The former should like the going, though whilst Prince Escalus' good ground record isn't the best after quite a few attempts, but he is now rated 4lbs below his last win unlike Issar D'Airy and Thelasthighking who now run off marks 8lbs and 9lbs higher than their last win. Frere D'Armes looks dangerous albeit off a small sample size of races.

Irrespective of their ability to win the race, the place data from those races above should show us who might run a decent (if not ultimately successful) race...

...where Another Crick looks one of the least likely to get involved. Thelasthighking is interesting at this class of race with 4 places from 4 to go with a 2 from 2 track place record, but he's not my idea of a winner with that extra 9lbs to burden.

Monday's free Geegeez Gold feature is, of course, PACE and our unique pace analyser tells us that in similar past contests, leaders have accounted for 12.9% (32/248) of the runners, but have managed to win 31.8% (7/22) of the races and provide 20.6% (14/68) of the placers...

...so if possible, I want us to be on a horse that likes to lead or be up with the pace and we can make a reasoned assumption (guess?) as to who might lead, by looking at how the field have run in their last few races by allocating a score 4 to those that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for a mid-division positioning and 1 for those who were held-up as follows...

Fringill Dike is a confirmed front-runner and Le Ligierien also likes to be kept handy, whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are definite hold-up types.

Summary

The horses that I considered to be in the best form were General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade. All of these should be involved in the final mix and Frere D'Armes was one of few to catch the eye on Instant Expert along with Thelasthighking, but of the 'form' horses, Fringill Dike looks best suited from a pace perspective, so Fringill Dike is my tentative pick here at 6/1 based on this show at 6.15pm on Sunday...

Frere D'Armes and Duhallow Tommy should both run decent races, but if I was to think about an E/W bet, then Thelasthighking might well fit the bill at 10's. I was thinking about General Medrano at a similar price, but I'm worried that the ground/race might end up being a bit too quick for him.

Racing Insights, Saturday 20/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

30-day form...

1-year form...

course 1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Ayr
  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 3.25 Bangor
  • 4.40 Brighton
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 7.05 Thirsk

And with all bar the 4.40 Brighton & the 4.45 Ayr from the free list also featuring in the TJC reports, it makes sense to stick with one of the other free races and of those four, two have too many runners for my liking, so I'll go with the highest-rated of the other two, the 1.50 Ayr where bottom-weight Donny Boy from above will contest a 13-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three mils on soft ground...

The bookies are paying four places or more here, so we might be able to spot a nice E/W option from a competitive-looking field including Marble Sands (2 wins from 4) and Maclaine as LTO winners, whilst Montgomery has won each of his last three. Young Buster was third after winning four out of five and Special Rate was also third after winning seven of his previous eight. Bottom weight Donny Boy is the only one without a win in six, having now been beaten in all ten starts since opening his career with a pair of wins.

None of these runners raced at Class 2 last time out with most stepping up from Class 3 to run here, but LTO winners Marble Sands and Maclaine are up two classes, whilst top weight Sharjah takes a step down after being well beaten at the Cheltenham Festival just over five weeks ago.

Most of the field raced around the same time with all bar Inch House and Young Buster (off for 70 & 84 days each) having raced in the past four to seven weeks. Deeper Blue and Donny Boy will both wear blinkers for the first time here, whilst it's a tongue-tie debut for Inch House and Ballycoose as they seek to return to winning ways.

Only Marble Sands, Ballycoose and Young Buster have visited Ayr before with just the latter failing to win here, but he is one of half a dozen (inc Inch House, Mofasa, Special Rate, Abuffalosoldier & Montgomery) who have already scored over a similar trip to this one.

I've set the Instant Expert parameters to show Class 3 form...

...as only Inch House (1 win and 1 place from 2) has tackled a Class 2 chase in the last five years. Sharjah is the sole previous Class 1 runner, having won a Grade 3 chase at Tipperary before failing to make the frame in four Grade 1 contests. From the above, you can see that Donny Boy has even struggled to win at Class 3, as has Deeper Blue. but the likes of Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery might well be the 'half' of the field to focus on, although Young Buster is 8lbs higher than his last win and a pound higher than his last run, where he was only third of seven in a Class 3 contest. Add in his twelve-week layoff and this might be a bit tough for him here, especially if he starts to blow a bit from attempting to set the pace, as his recent efforts suggest he might...

Sadly, I can't tell you whether those tactics might be good or bad, as there's very little data in the pace profiler for today's expected race conditions...

...so I'm going to rely on the quantifiable (form & Instant Expert) and the unquantifiable ie gut feeling!

Summary

The ones I took from Instant Expert were Sharjah, Marble Sands, Inch House, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery from which Marble Sands, Young Buster, Special Rate and Montgomery appear to be in the best form, so I'm going to take those four forward as I seek an E/W bet or two (three/four?). So let's look at the 7pm market...

...and I'm definitely interested in Montgomery and Marble Sands, with Montgomery probably being my winner today. Young Buster and Special Rate are more speculative, of course, but I think both are better than the odds might suggest and both are more than capable of making the frame here. Class dropping Sharjah might well get involved too.

Racing insights, Friday 19/04/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce a couple of qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.20 Ayr
  • 2.42 Newbury
  • 2.50 Ayr
  • 4.05 Fontwell
  • 4.55 Exeter
  • 5.37 Ballinrobe

...and as the highest-rated NH race in the UK not only appears on our 'free' race list, but also has a H4C runner, it mades perfect sense (to me anyway!) to focus on the 2.50 Ayr, a 10-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Sadly, our featured runner Dubai Days is now a non-runner, but it's a decent race with or without him, so I'll carry on as planned with what still looks a super-competitive race with no less than six LTO winners. Only Heltenham (2 wins from 3), Take All (3rd LTO), Soul Icon (2nd LTO) and Half Shot (pulled up) failed to win their last race, whilst Prairie Wolf (three wins from four) and Jet Plane are both coming here seeking a hat-trick and all ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings.

Top weight Heltenham drops back down in class today after an Aintree Class 1 handicap defeat (which had been preceded by hcp wins at both C1 & C2), but Nells Son, Prairie Wolf, Soul Icon, Jet Plane and General Officer might all find this race a little tougher as they step up from good runs at Class 3. All ten should, though, be primed for the task in hand as all have had at least one run in the last seven weeks (Heltenham, Jet Plane and Take All have already raced this month).

Newly-scratched H4C runner Dubai Days would have been the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but all of the others bar General Officer and Nells Son have already scored over a similar trip, whilst the latter is the sole previous course winner here at Ayr, having gone unbeaten in a pair of 2m½f bumpers on heavy ground in the winter of 20/21. Instant Expert won't show those runs, of course, as they weren't over fences, but it does highlight that...

...the likes of Heltenham, Nells Son, Prairie Wolf and Numitor should be at home on soft ground, although the latter's record at Class 2 leaves something to be desired. Take All, Half Shot and in-form Jet Plane have struggled to land soft ground chases, although the latter has some form at this trip, as do most of his rivals. From the above, Half Shot looks most vulnerable here, although his place record is, like many of his rivals, decent...

Jet Plane's form on soft ground is now a concern and his overall career record on soft stands at just 2 wins and 1 place from 14 attempts! Half Shot still looks weak here, but does get weight all round and if he runs like he normally does, then I expect him to be well up with the pace, based on his last four efforts...

...with Heltenham (like Dubai Days would have been) a confirmed hold-up horse, but those tactics tend not to work here at Ayr, if past similar contests are anything to go by...

Summary

You could at the outset, make a case for most if not all of the field to put up a decent effort here, but if remove Soul Icon, Jet Plane and Half Shot based on Instant Expert data and Heltenham based on his pace profile, I'm down to six runners, which still isn't ideal. Take All is 0 from 6 on soft ground and has only made the frame twice, so I'd say he leaves here, leaving me with half of the the 10-runner field under consideration.

The conundrum for me here is that I really like Jet Plane, but can't back him based on his soft ground form and whilst I fear that decision coming back to bite me, the two I now like best of the five under consideration are the two at the top of the pace profiler, Outlaw Peter and Prairie Wolf, in that order. They were best priced at 9/2 and 11/2 respectively at 3.45pm, whilst the full market looked like this...

The other three left in my favoured half of the field, Nells Son, Numitor and General Officer are all closely matched on my reckoning and all could feasibly make the frame, but General Officer offers the most value for those of you looking for an E/W play in a tight/tricky race.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 18/04/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 3.50 Cheltenham
  • 4.17 Ripon
  • 5.10 Clonmel

...from which I'm heading to the 4.17 Ripon, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on heavy ground...

Last time results aren't great for this baker's dozen, with Illusionist's runner-up finish at Thirsk last week the only placed effort. He was only beaten by a short-head running on over 5f that day and off the same mark should be involved over the extra furlong. Almost half of this field are winless in seven or more races as Remarkable Force, Fools Rush In, Danzan, American Star, Illusionist and Braveheart Boy have beaten in each of their last 14, 19, 8, 10, 17 and 10 races respectively.

May Blossom, Remarkable force and Fools Rush In all make debuts for their new yards today and the latter has had wind surgery since his last outing. Most of these ran at Class 4 last time out, but Danzan drops down a class, whilst Thornaby Pearl steps up a grade.

Braveheart Boy is denoted on the card as being a fast finisher, but he might well need the run today after 244 days off the track, but he's not the only one without a run in the last eight weeks, as Bay Breeze, Danzan, Fools Rush In, May Blossom and American Star all return from breaks ranging from 166 to 201 days.

Most of the field have already won over today's trip, but May Blossom, Remarkable Force and Ey Up It's Maggie are the exceptions. the latter has, however, scored here at Ripon before now, albeit over 5f, whilst Bay Breeze, Fortamour and Thornaby Pearl have all won over course and distance as per feature of the day Instant Expert...

...which actually paints a fairly sorry picture. Bay Breeze and Fortamoour are both 4-time winners here at Ripon and have won five times at the trip, but there's not much to crow about here. A couple look interestingly weighted, as Illusionist and Fools Rush In are now rated at 15/16 pounds lower than their last win and Illusionist came very close last week, but I suspect/hope that the place stats give me more to work with...

...and they suggest that Danzan might be worth looking at from an E/W or place perspective here. Illusionist's case is further bolstered too. Course specialist Bay Breeze is in stall 1 today with the benefit of the rail alongside him, although as you'd expect on a straight run on difficult ground, there's not much advantage from any part of the stalls...

That's not the case from a pace perspective, though, as this is how those 28 races above have been won...

...which based on the field's more recent efforts is probably better news for those above the red line than below it...

Summary

He doesn't seem suited by that pace chart above, but Illusionist is probably the one to beat here, especially if he runs anything like he did last week. This is a pretty modest bunch of truth be told and the race shouldn't take that much winning. Elsewhere Bay Breeze loves this track, has the rail to keep him straight and should be up with the pace, so could be a possible E/W threat, as could Danzan, whose place stats on Instant Expert were probably the pick of the field, but you could probably make a tentative case for many of these, as they all seem much of a muchness.

The 5.00pm market from Bet365 (only book open) looked like this...

...and whilst I'm not surprised that Illusionist is the favourite, I was rather hoping he'd be a bit more attractively priced. That said, it's definitely his race to win/lose. Bay Breeze is too short to back E/W for my liking, but the 14's about Danzan is interesting, as is the same price about Grant Wood.

Not a race to dig too deep in the pocket for, mind.

2024 Earl Of Sefton Stakes Trends

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The bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes is the feature contest on the opening day of the Newmarket Craven Meeting and is a Group Three race run over 1m1f on Wednesday 17th April 2024.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats ahead of the 2024 renewal as the Charlie Appleby yard and jockey William Buick look to win the race for a third year in-a-row.

Recent Earl Of Sefton Stakes Winners

2023 - Ottoman Fleet 6/4 fav
2022 - Master Of The Seas 5/4 fav
2021 - My Oberon 7/1
2020 - Zabeel Prince 9/2 cfav
2019 - Forest Rnger 8/1
2018 - Calderon 10/1
2017 - Mahsoob 100/30

Earl Of Sefton Stakes Betting Trends

16/16 – Had won over a least a mile in the past
15/16 – Favourites placed in the top three
13/16 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
13/16 – Had raced at the track before (7 won)
12/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Won at least 3 times in the past
11/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won over 1m1f or further in the past
9/16 – Had won a Group/Listed race before
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Drawn in stalls 8 (3) or 10 (3)
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam
3/16 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
4/16 – Ridden by William Buick
1/16 – Winners from stall 1
6 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 2-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

 

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Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/04/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.05 Cheltenham
  • 2.52 Beverley
  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 5.00 Cheltenham

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and course 5-year form...

To be honest, I'm not particularly taken with any of the seven races above, mainly to a lack of experienced horses, so I've decided to focus on what looks a fairly open race with E/W possibilities at Jumps HQ. The race in question is the 2.40 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f (16 fences) on good/good to soft ground...

Our sole LTO winner is Scarface and he comes here seeking a hat-trick having won three of his last four. Elsewhere only Do Your Job and Our Jet made the frame, both finishing third in 8-runner contests. Most of the field have won at least one of their last six outings, but Il Ridoto and In Excelsis Deo have both lost seven on the bounce.

Seven of the twelve runners were in Class 1 action last out, but in-form Scarface steps up from Class 2, as does LTO placer Do Your Job, whilst Presentandcounting, Idalko Bihoue and Our Jet all move from Class 3, which makes life tough here, especially if you've been off the track for 200 days like Presentandcounting has!

He's not the only one who might be in need of a run, as Idalko Bihoue, Final Orders and Hang In There also return from breaks of 113, 151 and 171 days respectively. The rest of the field have raced at least once in 2024, although Our Jet hasn't been seen for twelve weeks and Sail Away has had a two-month rest. The other half of the field have all been in action in the last five weeks.

Sail Away and In Excelsis Deo are the only runners yet to win over this kind of trip and although Hang In There (2m½f hurdle) and Idalko Bihoue (2m4f chase) are both former Cheltenham winners, only Il Ridoto and Torn and Frayed have scored over course and distance...

Instant Expert's overview of the field's chasing form over the last two years...

...suggests that Il Ridoto has failed to take the several chances offered to him at this class/track/trip, whilst Do Your Job would probably want more rain to fall. That said he's also 0/5 at Class 1, as is Torn And Frayed. Hang In There is interesting on going/trip, as is Scarface (a former Class 1 winner). The bookies will all pay at least four places on this race, so we should look at the place stats from the same races as above...

...which would seem to rule out the likes of Final Orders, In Excelsis Deo, Presentandcounting, Do Your Job and Torn And Frayed, suggesting that I focus on these seven runners all rated 5-8lbs higher than their last win...

...and I should probably remove Idalko Bihoue as the weakest of the seven, especially as he's been away for a while and is up two classes.

In the past, middle distance chases here at Cheltenham with medium-sized fields on good/good to soft ground have rewarded those brave enough to take the race on and set the tempo...

...with leaders claiming 32.65% of the wins and 20.42% of the places from just 12.23% of the runners, which looks like good news for Scarface, Gemirande and Our Jet from the six runners I'm still looking at...

...although I suspect that Idalko Bihoue might also want to get involved early doors.

Summary

Instant Expert helped me cut the field from twelve to six and whilst I personally think that Il Ridoto should be the horse to beat here, I fear that if he continues to race towards the back of the field, he'll struggle to make up ground although he did make the frame on three successive occasions over the winter by racing prominently/leading, so maybe his team will revert to those tactics. If that happens, then he'd be the one to beat and whilst his 11/2 ticket (as of 3pm Tuesday) is a fair price, it's essentially a punt on which tactics you think his team will employ.

Should he go on to win/place, then there are still three places (or more if you use SkyBet!) to aim for and with the market currently looking like this...

...the in-form Scarface looks a decent E/W option to Il Ridoto. Gemirande and Our Jet would be more speculative suggestions here, but I think both are better than those odds might suggest and both are capable of putting in a big run.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/04/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where the first pair would be of the most obvious interest and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.40 Naas
  • 3.30 Newmarket
  • 3.40 Ffos Las
  • 5.00 Naas

...and as I can't resist stayers' handicaps on difficult ground, it has to be In Rem and the 4.50 Ffos Las for me today. It's an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed three miles on heavy ground...

None of the eight managed to win last time out, but Ballymagroarty Boy, Mahland, Longshanks, In Rem, Fevertre and Monbari all made top three finishes. Mahland and Longshanks have been runners-up in each of their last two starts, whilst Fevertre has a win and a runner-up finish from his last two.

Fevertre's recent good form might now be checked as he steps up a class to run here, but this contest might prove a little easier than Minella Blueway and Thunderclap's last outings as they both make a double drop down from Class 2 action last time. Mahland no runs in a handicap for the second time after a narrow half-length defeat at Exeter recently.

Ballymagroarty Boy and In Rem are the only two horses to have won at either track or trip and they have both, in fact, won here over course and distance with the former doing so four starts and four months ago when winning for the first time in five years, whilst In Rem won here in October 2021 at the start of a sequence of five consecutive victories over trips of 2m5½f to 3m2½f and as you'd expect from a runner on The Shortlist, he's the eyecatcher on Instant Expert...

...mind you, the bar looks to be set fairly low, as Minella Blueway is 0 from 4 on heavy ground; Ballymagroarty Boy, Longshanks and Fevertre have struggled to win Class 4 races and Ballymagroarty Boy's return at this trip is lamentable at 1 win from 14, but he has (somewhat surprisingly!) made the frame in nine of the thirteen defeats...

...numbers that in isolation give him a great chance of making the frame again, whilst Thunderclap and Monbari look a little vulnerable.

In the past, it has paid to be up with the pace here over hurdles at Ffos Las in contests of 2m6f and beyond on ground deemed as soft or 'worse'...

...which based on the field's more recent efforts could be good news for Mahland, Longshanks, Monbari and Ballymagroarty Boy...

...whilst featured runner In Rem led the way last time out before eventually finishing third at Exeter. He was three lengths behind the re-opposing runner-up, Longshanks, that day but is 3lbs better off today, suggesting the two might be much more closely matched here.

Summary

I though the 'best' two horses in the race might well be Mahland and Longshanks, but based on their last run and the weight adjustment here, In Rem will be closer to Longshanks. And it's Mahland, Longshanks and Fevertre who arrive here in the best form. In Rem was the immediate eyecatcher on Instant Expert, but it was hard to ignore Ballymagroarty Boy's place numbers and he also seems well suited by the pace profiling, as do Mahland, Longshanks and Monbari.

Based on the names featured in that quick summary above, Mahland and Longshanks are the ones who feature most, so should really be my 1-2 and I'd have them in that order. That said In Rem could well overturn the LTO placings with Longshanks and it's hard to ignore the place claims of Ballymagroarty Boy. Hopefully the market at 5.50pm will help me formulate any potential bet.

Having checked the odds, Mahland would still be my winner here, but I think 11/4 is a bit mean/short, so I'll pass on that option. 5/1 looks fair/reasonable about Longshanks, but I don't see him winning the race and 5/1 is no E/W price in my eyes, but that can't be said about the 9/1 and 10/1 being offered about In Rem and Ballymagroarty Boy respectively and I think a couple of small E/W plays there might be the call for me.

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