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Racing Insights, Monday 10/06/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  •  4.40 Lingfield
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 5.48 Roscommon
  • 6.18 Roscommon

Neither of the UK 'free' races really appeal to me, so I'm going just look at the day's highest-rated race, the 7.40 Windsor, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good to firm ground...

Rocking Ends is our sole LTO winner, although Isle of Lismore won his penultimate race and was a runner-up last time, meaning that just two of the field were in the frame on their most recent outing. That said, all bar Mountain Peak have won at least once in the last seven, but he is winless in eleven stretching back almost two years.

His bid to snap his cold streak won't be helped by him stepping up a class, as do Isle of Lismore and Dusky Lord, whilst LTO winner Rocking Ends is up two levels. Mountain Peak last raced seven weeks ago, but all his rivals have ran at least once in the last four weeks and every one of the ten runners here have won over today's trip with Isle of Lismore, Rocking Ends and Antiphon all scoring over course and distance...

In fairnes, there's not a great deal of positivity from the win stats on Instant Expert today, but Good Earth does like the good to firm ground. From a negative perspective, it's not looking good for Thunder Moor, Woolhampton and Dusky Lord with a full line of red, whilst Squealer is 9lbs higher than his last win, so I think we'll need to check the place stats...

...which does paint a better picture, but it has to be the end of the road for Squealer (weight), Thunder Moor and Dusky Lord. Woolhampton's place stats are decent, so she earns a reprieve for now, whilst Antiphon clearly loves it here at Windsor finishing 114232212 since his first visit here on 2nd May 2022.

As you'd expect, there's no huge draw bias over a straight 5f on quick ground...

.but when it comes to our feature of the day, Pace, it's a different story with horses faring much better from both a win and a place perspective, the further forward they race...

...which makes sense really doesn't it? Hold-up horses don't have time to catch up over a fast five. Based on the field's most recent efforts, this pace bias would seem to suit Windsor-lover Antiphon better than Woolhampton...

If we then look at the pace/draw heat map...

...the ideal combo is the low drawn leader and Isle of Lismore scoring 3.00 for pace above and has the no.1 stall, then that could be good news.

Summary

Isle of Lismore is in good form and has the ideal pace/draw combo to succeed here. He won a similar race over course and distance this time last year and at a generally available (as of 5.40pm Sunday) 5/1, he'd be the one for me.

Rocking Ends is only up 2lbs for a good win LTO, but the dual step up in class might be his undoing here, whilst course specialist Antiphon looks a little high in the weights. Both have great chances of making the frame but at respective odds of 4/1 and 10/3, there's nothing in them from an E/W perspective.

If I did want a longer-priced horse to outrun their odds, then the 17/2 Navello might be the one, but I wouldn't be throwing too much of your hard-earned at it!

Racing Insights, Saturday 08/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated all the following runners for me to consider...

for 14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and 1-year course form...

...to consider in addition to our daily list of 'free' races, which are...

  • 1.40 Bangor
  • 2.10 Catterick
  • 2.20 Navan
  • 2.50 Bangor
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.45 Haydock

The last of those free races features two runners from the TJC report, but 15-runner sprints really aren't my thing, so I'm happy that another runner from the TJC report runs in another of our free races, as Team Skelton's Lunar Sovereign is down to tackle the 2.50 Bangor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed trip of 2m 145yds on good ground...

My initial thoughts are that the ones to focus one here were (alphabetically) Collingham, Feel The Pinch, featured runner Lunar Sovereign and top-weight Sir Tivo, but let’s dig a little deeper…

Sole LTO winner Collingham comes here seeking a hat-trick inside four weeks, whilst Feel The Pinch is the only one of his rivals to make the frame last time out. Elsewhere Lunar Sovereign and Barrichello in eight and ten races respectively, whilst Superbolt is a seven-race maiden. The other runners have all won at least one of their last seven outings.

Most of these ran at this grade last time out and all raced in the last 11-44 days, but Lunar Sovereign drops down a class and Sir Tivo is down two. Superbolt makes just a second handicap appearance and it’ll be his first run for his new handler and also his UK debut, whilst Barrichello wears blinkers for the first time.

All these bar Leylak and the obvious Superbolt have already won over a similar trip with Collingham, Feel The Pinch and Simply Red all former course and distance winners. Sir Tivo (2m1.5f chase) and Barrichello (2m3.5f hurdle) have also both won on this track earlier in their careers.

Instant Expert suggests that the top three on the card (and three of my initially favoured quartet) would be the ones to look at based on relevant past performances…

...but Simply Red is three from three over course and distance in the last two years (and 4 from 4 overall) so shouldn't be easily discounted, even if he has struggled since his last visit/win here last August.

Previous past similar races here at Bangor have gone with the pace of the contest with front-runners faring the best and hold-up horses faring the worst from both a win and a place perspective and based on this field's last few runs...

...this appears to hand the initiative to Sir Tivo.

Summary

I started off by suggesting that I was drawn to Collingham, Feel The Pinch, featured runner Lunar Sovereign and top-weight Sir Tivo and it's the latter, Sir Tivo, who is the likely front-runner over a course and distance that favour such tactics.

He drops two classes here and has two wins and two places from his last five outings and also scored well on Instant Expert, albeit off a small number of runs and all of this makes Sir Tivo look too big at his current (10.20pm Friday) 16/1 price tag. I'm not sure he's got the win in the bag, but should be a decent E/W option today.

Lunar Sovereign looks the weakest of my quartet, but still stronger than Simply Red, so I think it'll be hat-trick seeking Collingham and Feel The Pinch who cause Sir Tivo the most problems with 5/2 fav Collingham the most likely winner.

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/06/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 5.10 Haydock
  • 6.30 Leopardstown
  • 6.45 Chelmsford
  • 8.00 Leopardstown

Now, as most of you know, I don't really do Irish racing and that leaves me with a pair of uninspiring Class 5 UK races above, so I'm swerving those to look at whatever the highest-rated race might be in the UK instead.

And that appears to be the 3.25 Hamilton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

...where only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out, although Kelpie Grey was a runner-up after three straight wins and four wins from five.

This initially looks a pretty open contest, yet aside from the horses named above only Persuasion made the frame last time out, but only Monsieur Kodi and Manila Scouse are winless in seven or more (7 & 10 respectively).

Only five of these (Roman Drago, Paws for Thought, Dare to Hope, Monsieur Kodi & Manila Scouse) actually raced at Class 2 on their last outing, as Glenfinnan, Raatea, Persuasion and Almarada Prince all step up from Class 3 whilst Kelpie Grey and Illusionist were both last seen at Class 4.

Paws for Thought, Illusionist and Manila will have their usual respective cheekpieces, blinkers and tongue tie in place today and Paws For Thought's jockey claims 7lbs whilst Almarada Prince will be ridden by a 5lb claimer in addition to him receiving an 8lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old. The whole field have raced in the last 12 to 39 days, so we shouldn't have any fitness issues here today.

Persuasion , Kelpie Grey and Manila Scouse have yet to win over this trip, whilst Paws for Thought and Illusionist have scored here over course and distance. Almarada Prince has also won here at Hamilton, albeit over 5f as the middle win in a hat-trick last Autumn.

When it comes to looking at out feature of the day, Instant Expert, I've also included the stats from Class 3, as none of this field has particularly shone in this grade...

...so I wouldn't necessarily use Class 2 form as my immediate way of weeding runners out! From the above, the lightweight Almarada Prince and Glenfinnan are the obvious eyecatchers with Paws for Thought and Roman Dragon also hitting two blocks of green, although the latter is now 8lbs above his last winning mark and might well be in the assessor's grip.

I think we should look at the place form too, in case any of these have been unlucky not to win, especially at Class 2...

Sadly, that's not the case today, the while Class 2 form is pretty abject, so I think we should treat this as a Class 3 contest after all! Persuasion is a regular placer at that level and Almarada Prince continues to tick boxes albeit off a very small sample size, whereas Dare to Hope and Monsieur Kodi have a combined 14 places from 26 starts over 6f, which is excellent. Illusionist looks the weak link right now, though.

As you'd expect over a straight 6f on good ground, the draw stats are fairly inconclusive, but this the data we have...

I'm a great believer in the value of assessing the draw in shorter distance races, but I am cautious about over-reliance in these straight sprints, where aside from stall 1 having the rail to guide the horse and keep it straight, there shouldn't really be an advantage and it's invariably race tactics aka pace that matter more. Thankfully we have that data too! Here's how those races were won...

...unsurprisingly favouring front-runners as often tends to be case in sprints, which could be really good news for Kelpie Grey, if this field's last four races are anything to go by...

Summary

The names that crop up most during my analysis are (in card order) top weights Roman Dragon and Glenfinnan along with the two runners to be ridden by claimers, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince.

If I was to use this quartet as my shortlist, then I'd be inclined to suggest that the in-form Glenfinnan would be the most likely to win and that's probably why Hills have him as the early (4.10pm Wednesday) favourite at 4/1, which is probably where I thought he'd be priced.

The other three (Roman Dragon, Paws for Thought and Almarada Prince) are all more than capable of making the frame, as are no doubt three or four others, but at respective odds of 13/2, 8/1 and 16/1, there might be some E/W joy to be had!

Please Note : I'm off to Cyprus for a fortnight tomorrow (Thursday), so there'll be no column for Friday's racing. It's a work trip (looking at some hotels), so I'll still be writing the daily column when possible, although the timings of publication may well vary from day to day.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/06/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 6.10 Kempton
  • 7.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

And with Francesco Baracca, Muttasil and Marmaduke Lemon from the TS report all taking each other on, I think I'll have a look at their race, the 4.27 Nottingham, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed trip just 15yds shy of 1m½f after a 20yd rail movement. The going is set to be good and here's the card...

An inexperienced field with an average of under 5 races each (61 total races between the 13 of them), but Double Jump, Phoenix Passion, Francesco Baracca, Ribble Radiant and Roman Secret have all won at least one race with Phoenix Passion having won three of his eight starts and he comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Roman Secret also won last time out; Muttasil and Seamore are the only two yet to make the frame after 4 and 3 efforts respectively.There's plenty of changes according to the card, as we see Double Jump, Marmaduke Lemon and Francesco Baracca dropping down a class, whilst Ribble Radiant is down two steps. It's also handicap debut day for Marmaduke Lemon, Drink Dry, Seamore and Baynoona, who also runs for Harry Charlton for the first time today. Francesco Baracca and Muttasil run in handicap company for just the second time. We've also a couple of runners trying new headgear out with Drink Dry and Ribble Radiant wearing cheekpieces and a tongue tie respectively.

Only three of these, Seamore, Roman Secret, Great Chieftain have raced here before with all three failing to win their sole visit, but Roman Secret and Great Cheiftain did at least make the frame. We also don't have much in the way of wins at this trip, but Roman Secret, Phoenix Passion and Francesco Baracca have all managed to do it...

We don't get much help from the win side of things, but that's hardly surprising from a field that has won just 7 of 61 races so far, especially when Instant Expert eyecatcher Phoenix Passion is 3 from 8! Roman Secrtet looks next best, but it's a low bar and I think we're going to need to check the place stats...

These are more helpful, even if only to consolidate Phoenix Passion's position. Drink Dry, Francesca Barraca and Roman Secret (2nd best so far) also have multiple places in one or more category and after eliminating any of them without any green in either going, class, course or distance from the place graphic, I'm only taking these forward to draw analysis...

...and they're pretty much spread across the track, so I need to see if there's anything to be had from the draw in this type of contest...

I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias at play here, but stalls 4-6 have good win records, as does stall 11, so could be more good news for Phoenix Passion, as well as Drink Dry, Great Chieftain and Marmaduke Lemon, whilst there seems to be even less of a bias in the place stats.

It's a totally different story when it comes to pace, though, as horses running in mid-division or further back have struggled to win under these conditions...

...whilst leaders have gone well, but have seemed vulnerable to the prominent stalking types. That said, I'd rather be on an out and out front-runner than a back marker here and based on the field's last three outings (because some only have three to choose from!)...

Roman Secret looks like the pace-setter here with the likes of Show Biz Kid, Phoenix Passion and Ribble Radiant the ones in closes attendance. I'd also expect Seamore and Muttasil to be fairly close to the pace too in what could be a trappy affair.

Summary

The one horse whose name keeps popping up is Phoenix Passion and he has to be my pick here. I'm not surprised to see him installed as the early (3.40pm Tuesday) favourite with Bet365, but I was rather hoping for a little more than 10/3, but beggars can't be choosers.

Elsewhere, Roman Secret also won last time out and was my 2nd best from Instant Expert, he's likely to set the pace here and if she's race-fit after a 201-day layoff, she could be one for the E/W bettors amongst us at a current price of 8/1.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/06/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with Con Te Partiro of obvious immediate interest. As usual we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.03 Leicester
  • 5.20 Southwell
  • 6.45 Lingfield
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

Class 4 racing is as good as it gets and with one of our shortlist horses running in one of our free races, I'm going to take a quick look at the 5.20 Southwell, where Lipa K will take on just five rivals in a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5f (after a 138yd rail movement) on good ground...

ELHAM VALLEY has made the frame in both starts (both here at Southwell) since moving yards and was only beaten by a head last time out just three weeks ago, but hasn't won a race beyond 2m2½f, so this might stretch him.

BELVEDERE BLAST has won over 2m4½f in the past, but looked decidedly rusty when a further three places and over 20 lengths behind Elham Valley's runner-up run here three weeks ago. In his defence, he hadn't raced for seven months and dis win three on the bounce in the first 17 days of June last year after a five-month break

COPPER BEACH hasn't been seen since a 17 length defeat last November at Wetherby and has won just once in fourteen career starts, but that was at 2m4f, which is a positive. Had has a wind op during the lay-off, but other make more appeal.

THE BIG LENSE has struggled for consistency over the last year, either running well or failing to finish (1P3F2) Was only beaten by a head over today's course and distance four weeks ago, though, when headed late on by the re-opposing Pozo Emery and this pair should be closely matched again.

LIPA K comes here on a hat-trick after winning both his efforts over fences, but whilst he runs off the same mark (110) as his last chase win a week ago, that's 4lbs higher than his last hurdles mark and despite winning back to back races over hurdles in March/May 2023, his hurdles form since then reads 535F.

POZO EMERY finished 1122 in four starts for Paul Nicholls during the 20/21 season, but his form for Laura Morgan prior to a course and distance win (beating The Big Lense) read PP3243, so he's not a shoo-in to confirm the placings from that win and is up 3lbs here.

Instant Expert says...

...that most of these have struggled to win Class 4 hurdle races with Pozo Emery the pick of the pack on the above data. The Big Lense looks particularly weak on win form and the data for Lipa K serves to remind us that Instant Expert and The Shortlist are two different reports even if they look similar! Lipa K's figures look better when you look at all NH races, as he's just gone 2 from 2 over fences.

If we then look at the place stats for those races above...

...Pozo Emery still stands out as the one most likely to relish the conditions, whilst most of the runners look half-backable now. Lipa K, however, has a dismal Class 4 hurdling record at 831535F and is 7lbs higher than his last win over these obstacles. He's also highly likely to send much of the race towards the back of the field with The Big Lense whilst the pace will probably come from Pozo Emery and/or Elham Valley if this field's last few races are anything to go by...

...and our pace analyser suggests that horses who lead here tend to get swallowed up by the chasing pack with all other running styles faring better...

Summary

Having won his last two, I imagined Lipa K would be popular and indeed he is; bet365 have him as the 5/4 fav at 4.30pm on Monday, but that doesn't excite me if I'm honest. He's 7lbs higher than his last hurdles win, his two wins were over fences and his recent hurdling form has been patchy plus he has a poor record at Class 4. He's certainly got momentum, but 5/4 represents no value to me.

With that in mind, I'm more interested in the closely-matched The Big Lense and Pozo Emery and with the latter up 3lbs and seemingly less suited by the pace profiling, The Big Lense would be my marginal preference of the two and their closeness is mirrored by bet365 offering 5/1 about each of them.

Racing Insights, Monday 03/06/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.20 Listowel
  • 2.30 Brighton
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 4.50 Listowel
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I think I'll head to the South Coast for the 2.30 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Apprentice Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on good/good to firm ground...

Top-weight (carrying 5lbs more than the others) is the fast-finisher Fai Fai and he's our only LTO winner in a field that elsewhere Broxi's win five starts ago is the only success any of these have had in their last seven outings, although My Bonnie Lassie made the frame on her last start (over course and distance, too) and has done so twice in her last four efforts.

All nine raced at this level last time around which was inside the last eight weeks for all bar Gilt Edge, who now returns from a six-month break. Muy Muy Guapo has been far from 'very very handsome' of late, having been unplaced in each of his last seven and it is hoped that first-time cheekpieces help today.

This isn't a handicap, so all bar the 5lb-penalised Fai Fai will carry 9st 9lbs here and with four of them rated at 50 and one at 49, this could be a tight contest, despite the obvious lack of quality. Of the five separated by just 1lb in the ratings, Voltaic has a 3lb claimer on board, whilst the jockeys of Kondratiev Wave and Broxi are both able to take 5lbs off, which may well have a bearing here.

All nine have raced over this trip (2 to 35 times overall) with only Broxi (7 from 35) and He's Our Star (3 from 15) managing to win with the other seven failing to score in any of 66 attempts and it's the same two horses who have won here at Brighton before as Broxi is 2 from 2 here and He's Our Star has won 3 of 16 with the others notching up 21 defeats, whilst over course and distance, Broxi is 2 from 2 and He's Our Man 2 from 3. Other relevant stats come courtesy of Instant Expert, of course...

...where Broxi is the immediate eye-catcher based on wins over the last two years, with both Fai Fai and Voltaic having commendable place records, but you probably didn't need me to spell that out. When it comes to place stats, I'm never too keen about horses 'in the red' after 5 runs or more, so by that standard My Bonnie Lassie and He's Our Star fail on class/course data, whilst Gilt Edge also fails on class and I'd be more than happy to rule them out right now, leaving me with the following in draw order...

I've got them in draw order, because I want to check with our draw analyser to see if any of these be helped or hindered by their stall position based on data gleaned from past similar races here at Brighton...

...where to be honest, I'd say that the bias wasn't that great at all, but if there is an advantage to be had it's probably more relevant for the placings rather than the wins and that those drawn lowest have the better chances. It's a different story from a pace perspective, though, where the onus is to get out quickly with our pace analyser showing that leaders/prominent runners won 51.2% (64) of those 125 races above, despite only accounting for 41.6% (452) of the 1085 runners involved...

...with a similar (but not quite as stark) difference with the places, where they took 46.9% (175) of the 373 places. When we then look back at how this field has approached their most recent races...

...I guess that Broxi might well be afforded a soft early lead and that he'll attempt to make all here.

Summary

Based on the above, it has to be Broxi for me.

Aside from Fai Fai, he brings the best form to the table and is second best off at the weights after allowances, just 1lb inferior to Kondratiev Wave. He has the best win stats on Instant Expert, backed up by good place data. He has been drawn in stall one, so he has the rail to guide him and only one direction to look out for danger, but based on the pace stats, he might not see another runner after the start and if so, it'll probably be late on.

LTO-winner Fai Fai is only two stalls away and might well get a tow into the race, which would help but he and Voltaic are the two best suited to making the frame here today anyway and it is these two that I expect to pose the biggest threat to Broxi here. If pushed to split the placers, I think I like Voltaic slightly more as he carries 8lbs less than Fai Fai, but Fai Fai is the stronger finisher : it might be tight!

As of 4.20pm on Sunday, only Bet365 had shown any odds and they went...

I can understand why Kondratiev Wave might be popular, but 3/1 seems mighty short for a horse on a twenty-one race losing streak and 7/2 about Broxi looks better value.

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.00 Epsom
  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.25 Listowel
  • 4.45 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Doncaster
  • 6.28 Stratford

...from which the highlight has to be the nine-runner, Group 3, Princess Elizabeth Stakes for 3yo+ Fillies & Mares, shown on your racecards as the 2.00 Epsom, where they'll go left-handed on good to soft ground over a trip just three yards beyond 1m½f...

Royal Dress and Sea of Thieves both managed to win last time out at Listed class with the former beating the re-opposing Breege (finished third) by just two short heads in a tight contest at Goodwood four weeks ago, whilst Running Lion was a 3.5-length runner-up in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes a day later at Newmarket. Two of this field are on losing runs with Breege winless in ten since scoring on debut just over two years ago, whilst Julia Augusta has lost seven on the bounce since opening her career with a pair of Class 5 wins over a mile and she's also almost two years without a win.

Julia Augusta was fourth in a Listed race for Roger Varian eight weeks ago and now makes a yard debut for David O'Meara, Sea Of Thieves wears a tongue tie for the first time on her return to UK action. She won a Listed race in France LTO, but is up two classes from her last UK run. Sparks Fly is also up in class after a 3.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock five weeks ago and the quickest-turned back out (20 days), Chic Columbine is denoted as a fast-finisher. She (along with Glimpsed) gets a 12lb age allowance here as a 3yr old and that effectively makes her best off at the weights, as she's rated just 3lbs lower than Running Lion and Sparks Fly (103 vs 106). The afore mentioned Julia Augusta, however, carries 12lbs more than Chic Columbine despite being rated some 11lbs lower!

Astral Beau was third of six in this race last year and that's the only time any of this field have raced here at Epsom before, but Astral Beau, Julia Augusta, Royal Dress and Sparks Fly have all scored over 1m to 1m1f on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, where Sparks Fly has the best relevant record and Astral Beau the worst...

Admittedly, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but Sparks Fly's 2 from 3 on the going and 6 from 6 at the trip are certainly worth noting, as are Astral Beau's 1 from 7 at Class 1 and her 1 from 9 at the trip sadly. Breege, as we know, hasn't won any of her last ten and most have been Class 1 affairs over similar trips but I wouldn't write her off just yet, as she certainly knows how to make the frame at this level...

...where her Class 1 form line reads 32725423, putting her right into contention for at least a place again today along with Running Lion whose own Class 1 form reads 12382. Chic Columbine has won four of her last five, but they've all been at 6½f/7f, so this is a fairly big step in trip today for her.

Past similar (slightly expanded criteria, of course to get workable data) races show no real draw bias here...

...and there's probably no real pace bias either from those races, even if prominent runners have a much poorer win percentage...

I'm happy to overlook that relatively low 7 from 77 return, because those runners have made the frame as often as the other styles and could have just been a bit unlucky; they're probably only 2 or 3 winners shy of par.

So without a pace and/or draw bias, I'm going to class this as a fair race, where the best horses should prevail all being well and based on form / Instant Expert, I'd lean towards (in card order) Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine as being the four to choose from.

When we talk about the draw and the pace of a race, it's often useful to look at how they interact, because in those races above there is no obvious bias in either pace or draw, but when combined...

...we'd ideally have a high drawn runner in mid-division dropping in for a late run or a runner in stalls 1-6 leading the way, which makes the following quite interesting...

Astral Beau was third in this race last year, Sparks Fly was the standout on Instant Expert and Breege is the perennial placer.

Summary

The analysis above led me to believe that the winner and placers would come from Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine, whilst the pace/draw heat map threw Astral Beau's name into the ring, making the market as of 4.30pm Friday of little/no surprise to anyone...

...other than perhaps a feeling that Running Lion might be a little on the short side after being overturned as a 6/4 fav last time out. On her day, she's probably the pick here, but I'm not sensing a great deal of value at 15/8 so whilst she might very well go on to win, she won't be burdened with the weight of my money!

Sparks Fly is really interesting, of course but not backable for me at 5/1, but if you do want an E/W punt then any (or all) of the next three in the betting could be the way forward. God, I hate agreeing with the bookies!

Have a great weekend, guys (and girls, of course!)...
Chris

Racing Insights, Friday 31/05/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for this Friday, but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 4.15 Chepstow
  • 5.20 Tramore
  • 7.35 Stratford
  • 8.00 Down Royal
  • 8.05 Stratford

...the best of which is clearly the Epsom race, but only five are set to go to post, so I think I'll take a look at the 7.35 Stratford, an 8-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ Hunters Chase over a left-handed 3m3½f on good to soft ground...

What A Glance won last time out and has had five top 2 finishes in a row, as has Go On Chez who comes here seeking a hat-trick, as does Fairly Famous who has won three of his last five. All eight have won at least one of their last five outings and all bar Law of Gold (Pulled Up) made the frame on their last run.

Most of these ran (at Cheltenham) four weeks ago and Go on Chez also ran earlier this month, but Annamix is the longest rested at 50 days and he's the only one who raced at Class 2 last time around, as the other seven are all up two classes today.

Course and/or distance wins are at a premium for this field, but Law of Gold bucks that trend, having scored over track and trip here when winning this very race three years ago, when offiically rated 12lbs worse than today. It's not a handicap, of course, they'll all carry 12st, but based on their official ratings the 139-rated Annamix is 2lbs better off than Fairly Famous and some 24lbs better than Lift Me Up.

Instant Expert's overview of the field's past endeavours under similar circumstances looks like this...

...and if truth be told, we're not gleaning much from the win side of things here, but we do have more to work with from the place data. From the win stats I have concerns about D'jango at the trip as he seems better suited to 2m7f/3m and his place record at this type of trip is the worst in the field, so I'd probably rule him out right here. Premier Magic has only made the frame once in four attempts in this grade and whilst that's a small sample size, others look better suited to this level than he, so I'm taking him out here too.

This leaves me with just six to consider, from which Annamix and Go On Chez make most appeal from the data above.

With regards to pace, there's not a huge advantage to any particular running style, although those racing in mid-division have an extraordinarily poor return whereas from a place perspective, the onus is clearly to find a front runner...

...so we need to look back at each runner's last few races, which look like this...

...and this is sadly not too helpful either with it looking like being a falsely-run race, but that should play into the hands of the better horses. It looks like I've picked a poor/difficult race here to analyse despite it being a Class 2 affair. In these cases, I tend to refer back to the racecard for some pointers.

Summary

Fairly short piece today due to the lack of viable data, so I'm going back to square one to summarise from the racecard.

Annamix is my pick today, he has won two of his last four and three of six since last Easter. He's the only one not stepping up in class and ran really well to finish third in the Foxhunters at Aintree behind Its On The Line, whose recent form reads 111211. Annamix scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and he's the highest-rated of all the runners, so is technically best off at the weights. He also seems flexible on pace based on his last four runs, so (without total conviction, it must be said), it would be Annamix for me here.

Best of the rest might well be Go On Chez who comes here on a hat-trick, having a 2 from 2 record in Hunter Chases and a form line of 1222211 since being pulled up at Cheltenham in October 2022 and I fancy him to just edge out the other LTO winner Fairly Famous, who is rated at just 2lbs worse than Annamix.

Racing Insights, Thursday 30/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.00 Ffos Las
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.20 Ripon
  • 5.25 Ripon
  • 5.30 Fairyhouse
  • 6.47 Limerick

...and I suspect that of the races above, we'll get more Instant Expert data from the 4.20 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Bottom-weight Ey Up It's The Boss is not only our sole LTO winner (or even placer for that matter) in the pack, having scored here over track over trip 11 days ago, but also our sole class riser, as he steps up two classes today, Conversely, the top three in the weights are all down in class, with Bennetot and Loyal Touch down from Class 2, whilst Zarabanda was last home of eight in a Listed race, as she has been for three races on the trot!

None of our seven LTO losers even made the frame, but all bar Bennetot, Bodorgan and Titian have won at least one of their last six outings. Rogue Sea is the only runner in this field without a run in the last six weeks and he now races for the first time since mid-September 2023, having moved yards to bryan Smart and undergone a gelding operation during his layoff.

Bennetot and Bodorgan have yet to win at a similar trip, but Zarabanda, Baryshnikov, Cockalorum and Ey Up It's The Boss have all won over course and distance whilst Rogue Sea's last win (51 weeks ago) was over 1m3f on this course and it's two of our course and distance winners that initially catch the eye on our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

Baryshnikov's poor return at going, class and trip have already put me off backing him and Zarabanda is only let down by a lack of wins at this trip (her best results have been at 1m/1m½f), but her soft credentials are the best here with Cockalorum also faring well. From a place perspective, we still seem to be looking at the same horse, drawn in stalls 3 to 7...

....but our draw analyser would suggest those drawn 1 to 5 would be the ones to beat, particularly from a place perspective...

...so that could be especially good for three of our course and distance winners, Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and Zarabanda.

If we then run those 20-odd races (I know it's a smaller than preferred sample size) through our pace analyser, we find that the wins have been spread fairly equally around the four possible running styles, but from a percentage point of view, you really want to be backing leaders/front-runners here and even more so if if you're angling towards an E/W pick...

That 63.64% place strike rate is quite telling here, so if Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and/or Zarabanda are front-runners, then they look like good bets to make the frame at the very least, so let's check the field's pace profile...

...and it looks like the pace is going to come from the lower end of the draw with Loyal Touch and Cockalorum the most likely front-runners here.

Summary

Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and Zarabanda are all course and distance winners and all scored well on both Instant Expert and draw, but when it came to pace profiling Cockalorum was the standout of the three and he's got to be good for a place here as he steps down in trip.

Only Hills had opened a book at 2.25pm Wednesday and they were sadly only offering 6/1 about Cockalorum, which is a bit short for E/W betting for me, but don't let me put you off if those odds are acceptable. Loyal Touch was the early 10/3 favourite and his low drawn front-running could well propel him to a place too, but I think the price is a bit mean based on his Instant Expert scores and an indifferent effort last time out.

If Cockalorum drifts, then I'd definitely put him up as an E/W option, but on the other hand Zarabanda looks a bit long as the 11/1 outsider, as she seems to tick plenty of boxes here apart from pace, but there's a chance she gets towed along by the two front0runners inside her and the pace/draw heat map for this race suggests her centrally drawn mid-division running style might not be disastrous either...

...so Zarabanda at 11/1 E/W is the option that currently interests me most with Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and market leader Loyal Touch all hoping to be in the mix.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 pointsThe final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
My fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) for The Shortlist have generated the following qualifiers......and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 4.55 Leicester
  • 5.20 Brighton
  • 5.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.55 Bangor
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

...from which I think I'll have a look at the Secret Handsheikh vs Jacquelina battle from The Shortlist in the 2.15 Brighton, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 5f 60yds on good ground...

Sole LTO winner Jacquelina arrives here seeking a three-week hat-trick after a heavy ground win over 5f at Windsor and a good ground course and distanc esuccess here a week ago and she is, in fact, the only one of the eight to have made the frame on their last run, but at least all bar bottom-weight and 8-race maiden Haveagobeau have won at least one of their last seven outings.

Haveagobeau's cause isn't helped by not having had a run for eight months either, when all bar Boom The Groom (rested for 60 days) of his rivals have raced in the last month. Better news for Mokaatil, Alpine Girl and the fast-finishing Secret Handsheikh, though, as they all drop down a class to run here.

As an eight-race maiden, Haveagobeau is the only runner in the field yet to win at either track or trip with all seven rivals having won at least once over a similar distance. Jacquelina isn't the only course and distance winner, though, as Batchelor Boy, Secret Handsheikh and Cabeza de Llave (spanner head in Spanish?) have all also achieved the feat, whilst 116-race veteran Boom The Groom has won here over 6f...

As you'd expect from their places on The Shortlist, both Jacquelina and Secret Handsheikh fare well on Instant Expert, as does Alpine Girl off an admittedly small sample size. Mokaatil and Batchelor Boy would probably prefer the ground to be a bit quicker, Haveagobeau has won a race of any description and Boom The Groom's 'better' recent form has been on A/W tracks away from Brighton. Batchelor Boy also has a terrible win record here on this track at 1 from 14 and only 3 placed efforts in his 13 defeats...

I often use the place stats to cross runners off my list of possibles and Haveagobeau has to go now. I knew he hadn't won a race, but the above data says he hasn't been getting close either and he's clearly the weakest of the eight. Batchelor Boy's record on good ground causes concerns, but he has gone well at this class and trip, whilst his 29% place strike rate isn't horrific.

Past races here haven't shown a massive (in my opinion, anyway) draw bias, as those drawn low have a lower win percentage but a higher place ration than those drawn further out, suggesting that there's not a great deal to be had from the draw...

...whilst it's a different story from the pace angle...

...with those willing to set the pace getting the best results, especially if drawn low to mid-field...

...which based on the field's recent efforts could be more very good news for Jacquelina from her fairly central draw...

Summary

More pictures than words today, but that's sometimes more helpful. And it's probably no surprise that I'm suggesting Jacquelina as my likeliest winner here. She's in great form, scores well on The Shortlist and Instant Expert and has a good pace/draw profile for this race. Fellow featured runner Secret Handsheikh also looks to be in with a good shout of making the frame and if pushed for a third placer, I'd probably look towards Batchelor Boy on his recent form line, even if conditions aren't exactly ideal here for him.

No odds available at 3.15pm Monday, but I'd expect to see something like Jacquelina 3/1, Secret Handsheikh 4/1, Batchelor Boy 6/1, so none would be E/W viable if those odds are right, unfortunately.Please Note No column tomorrow (Tuesday for Wednesday) racing as I'm away at a family funeral. Normal Service resumes Wednesday, of course.

Racing Insights, Monday 27/05/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.15 Huntingdon
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.05 Cartmel
  • 4.35 Redcar
  • 5.55 Leicester

The highest-rated of those races above, the 4.35 Redcar, also has a good pace spread, so we're going to focus on this 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground, that will be heavy in places...

Maghlaak has made the frame in all six career starts, winning on three occasions and is the only LTO winner in this field. Alpha Crucis was third of eight at Goodwood under similar conditions to today, but none of the others even made the frame on their last outings. All bar Machete have won at least one of their last six races, though, with the top-weight French raider on a losing run of seven.

Arthur's Realm and Bystander both step up a class here and it's a day/race full of 'firsts' as it's the first...

  • race for David O'Meara, first in the UK and first handicap race anywhere for Machete
  • time in cheekpieces for Bill Silvers
  • fitting of a tongue-tie for To Catch a Thief
  • wearing of a visor by Stressfree

All those who ran in the UK last time out raced either 10 or 23 days ago, but Machete's last run in France for Fabrice Chappet was some eight months ago and it's not inconceivable that he might need the run. He's also one of four (along with Bill Silvers, Arthur's Realm & Alpha Crucis) yet to win at today's trip, whilst the field has no previous Redcar wins. That said only Bystander and Stressfree have raced here once each!

Half of the field have decent place form on soft ground, but unusually for French imports, that's not the case for Machete and seeing as he hasn't raced for eight months, has lost his last seven since a win fourteen months ago, has no win at the trip and doesn't appear to 'get' soft ground, I'm crossing his name off here.

Also based on place form, I'm doubtful about To Catch A Thief, Bill Silvers and especially Lord Protector, so that leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10, so I should still be covered in the event of any draw bias! The in-form Maghlaak is also the main eyecatcher from Instant Expert above, but Qitaal's numbers are good as are those of bottom-weight Alpha Crucis.

I referred to a potential draw bias above, so I've checked past similar races and they say...

...and based on that data, I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias overall. The mid drawn 4 wins from 78 doesn't make a lot of sense when either side you have 10 wins and 9 wins, but I should point out that stall 1 alone has 6 wins and 2 further places from 23 runs, so that skews things a little and might be good news for Qitaal. The fact that there's not a great deal of difference in the place stats helps to bring me to the little/no bias conclusion, but I suspect that our feature of the day, PACE, will be of more help.

Here's how those 23 races above have been won...

...with prominent/leading runners clearly coming out on top, which based on this field's most recent efforts looks like even more good news for Qitaal...

Summary

The in-form Maghlaak and pace-setting Qitaal look like the most likely ones here and they were only a neck apart last time out. Qitaal is a pound better off here, but Maghlaak was running for the first time in almost a year, so both should technically go better here, which might result in another narrow defeat for Qitaal. I'm not sure how they'll finish, of course, but I suspect it will be tight again and Qitaal offers more value at 6/1* than Maghlaak at 7/2* , I suppose.

As for the final place, Bystander (9/2*) has to be considered from his pace profile, but I think Alpha Crucis might be the one, despite often being slow away. He was actually third behind Maghlaak and Qitaal 23 days ago, just 1.25 lengths off the pace and whilst Qitaal is a pound better off with Maghlaak here, Alpha Crucis is 2lbs better off with Qitaal, which could be interesting and at 13/2*, he's borderline E/W territory for me.

*odds taken from Bet365 & Hills at 5.00pm Sunday

Racing Insights, Saturday 25/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of combos for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover..

  • 1.20 Curragh
  • 1.50 Haydock
  • 3.35 Chester
  • 3.45 Goodwood
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 5.35 Windsor

Normally, I'd be covering that Listed race from Goodwood, but up here in the North West we've something even better : the 1.50 Haydock, a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for 3yo+ horses over a straight 5f on soft ground...

Seven Questions and Equality both won last time out, but the latter is our only class mover, having raced in a Class 2 handicap at Musselburgh five weeks ago. Rogue Lightning was fifth in France after winning three on the bounce here in the UK. Makarova and Vadream are both winless in their last five.

No new headgear or equipment being used here, no yard debuts and just Equality moving in class. Quality Aussie sprinter Asfoora makes her UK debut today nine weeks after a ¾-length defeat at Group 1 and it's worth noting that she has won three (inc 1 x Gr2 and 1 x Gr3) of five soft ground races. She has won over this trip before, as have all her rivals, but only Equality (course and distance) and Kerdos (6f on debut) have won at Haydock already with Makarova and Live In The Dream sharing three defeats...

The going doesn't really look like an issue for any of these runners, even if two of them are yet to make the frame : three combined runs isn't a hugely reliable sample size, but Makarova and Vadream have had plenty attempts at Class 1 and haven't really impressed. Kerdos' win record over the trip is poor if truth be told and the ones I'd taske forward from Instant Expert are Live In the Dream, Seven Questions, Vadream (place potential?), Beautiful Diamond and Rogue Lightning along with Asfoora based on her overseas record.

So, I've omitted runners in stalls 1, 2, 4 and 5, so I'm hoping there's no low draw bias here or I'm staring at Live In The Dream from stall 3! Thankfully, runners in stalls 4 to 8 have fared beast in soft ground straight sprints here at Haydock over the years...

...with stalls 3 to 7 faring best for the places, which overall is especially good news for the likes of Seven Questions and Asfoora. They key to winning sprints here at Haydock, though, rests more on race tactics/positioning, as those horses prepared to take the race on early have tended to win most often...

...with leaders winning 21.05% of their races and non-leaders winning just 8.67% of theirs and there's a similar (45.61% vs 28.46%) story with the places, so we need to check how these horses normally run via the pace tab...

...and it looks like Live In The Dream will be the one to catch here.

Summary

Live In The Dream looks like he'll try to make all here, a tactic that served him really well when winning the Gr1 Nunthorpe last autumn. He ran well in the Breeders Cup last year and was third in this race last time around and he'd be the one to beat in my book. He was a 4/1 shot at 5.45pm on Friday and whilst that's not generous, I'd say it was fair.

In opposition, I do like the look of the Aussie raider Asfoora, a dual-Group race winner on soft ground, who comes here as a bit of an unknown quantity, I suppose, whilst Seven Questions is drawn well, is in good form and will be up with the pace, so should be in the mix. Asfoora and Seven Questions currently trade at 5/1 and 16/1 respectively, so a small E/W play on the latter might be the ticket here.

Enjoy the Bank Holiday, I'll be back next week.

Racing Insights, Friday 24/05/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Bath
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 4.10 Goodwood
  • 7.00 Hereford
  • 7.35 Downpatrick

And seeing as the 'free' list has a Listed race, we'll cover that one. It's the 3.35 Goodwood, an 8-runner (hopefully!), 1m2f flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground and here's the lineup...

Sole LTO winner Isle of Jura has won his last three (2 x Listed and 1 x Gr1) as part of an excellent 4 from 5 streak in Bahrain taking his total recent form to six wins and a runner-up finish from eight starts, although he is up two classes from his last UK run if not overall. Royal Rhyme is two from three and three from five, Mujtaba won three starts ago and Passion and Glory has lost three in a row after a run of five successive wins and six wins from seven. Elegancia is two from four, Empress Wu won on debut, but is 0 from 4 since and both Claymore and Sea of Roses are on losing streaks of eight races.

Mujtaba wears a tongue tie today for the first time, the afore-mentioned Isle of Jura is our only class mover and if this was based on handicap marks, Mujtaba would be best off at the weights by 2lbs over Royal Rhyme and 3lbs over Isle of Jura; Elegancia is easily the worst off, rated at just 91. Many of these might not quite be at their best today, as only Sea of Roses, Mujtaba and Claymore have raced on the last three to five weeks or so. Isle of Jura, Elegancia, Empress Wu, Royal Rhyme and Passion and Glory all return from breaks of 77, 195, 199, 216 and 580 days respectively and I do wonder about Passion and Glory after so long away from the track.

Isle of Jura and Sea of Roses have yet to win at this trip, whilst only Royal Rhyme (course and distance) and Passion and Glory (1m4f) have won at Goodwood before...

On the face of things, Royal Rhyme and Passion and Glory look the best suited by today's expected race conditions, but it's still a big ask of the latter after 19 months out of action. Clymore and Empress Wu lack wins under these circumstances, but Mujtaba is 3 from 7 on the going and has good place stats at class/distance.

In previous past similar races, stall 1 (Sea of Roses here) has done really well...

...with stalls 5 to 7 (Royal Rhyme, Mujtaba, Claymore) also having good win records and the same stalls have topped the averages from a place perspective across 50+ races that have tended to be dominated by horses who like to be at the head of the pack...

...which based on this field's last few runs is another positive for both Passion and Glory and Royal Rhyme...

...whilst it's Isle of Jura, Royal Rhyme and Mujtaba who seem best off on our pace/draw heatmap.

Summary

One horse's name has popped up in every bit of analysis I've done, so it's no surprise that Royal Rhyme was the 5/4 favourite at 7pm on Thursday evening. Isle of Jura and Mujtaba were the nest two in the market and probably deservedly so, even if not at E/W backable odds for me (they were 4/1 and 11/2), but based on past efforts and taking fitness on trust, there might just be a bit of validity for small 20/1 E/W punts on Claymore and/or Passion and Glory.

That said, despite it being a decent standard of race, it's not one I'll be digging deep for financially!

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.58 Market Rasen
  • 5.15 Catterick
  • 6.25 Limerick
  • 6.55 Limerick
  • 7.37 Sandown

...but I think I'll ignore for various reasons (never bet on races that don't appeal) and look at whatever might be the day's highest-rated/most-valuable handicap. That actually turns out to be the 8.42 Sandown, a 12-runner, Class 3 (£9020 to the winner), 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Crack Shot and Hiromichi both won last time and they have both won three of their last six outings, whilst Navagio, Regheeb and Dragon Icon have all won twice in six or less. Excel Power is the only one without a win in seven starts, having suffered ten defeats on the bounce.

Three of the top four in the weights (Alzahir, Navagio and Dual Identity) drop in class here, as does bottom-weight Magic Memories who runs for the first time since the Moores changed the licence naming.

Classic might well need a run here today, as at 268 days since his last run, he's the only one without a run since the start of April, but he is one of just previous course winners, having won here over 7f last July. Dual Identity won a 1m2f handicap at a higher level here last September.

This pair of course winners are, however, amongst five (Alzahir, Regheeb & Al Rufaa being the others) yet to win over today's trip...

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, doesn't have masses of past relevant runs for this field, but does suggest that Classic, Crack Shot and Hiromichi might be best suited to the conditions. That said, there are few alarm bells ringing here, other than maybe Dual Identity's failure to win at the going and trip and Navagio's UK mark being much higher than his last win over in Ireland. If we then consider the place stats from those races above, it becomes more apparent about Dual Identity's dislike of this trip...

...which is unfortunate, because the other columns show he has ability, He's better at 1m2f where he has four wins and five further places from just thirteen starts, but it seems a mile is just on the sharp side for him. At this point, I'd probably remove a few of these from my calculations and just take the following runners forward...

I've arranged them in draw order, as I'm now going to see if any of them might be handed any kind of advantage from their stalls position, but our draw analyser says there's not a great deal in it, although those in stalls 5 and above have done slightly better for themselves...

Our pace analyser also says there's not a great deal in it pace-wise too, but that hold-up horses have fared worst of all...

...and that the optimum pace/draw combinations would be low-drawn runners in mid-division or leaders drawn centrally with high-drawn leaders also doing well...

We already know the draw, but from a pace perspective, here's how the field have approached their most recent races...

...and if they go that way today, then Crack Shot fulfils the role of low-drawn mid-division runner and Regheeb would be the high drawn leader.

Summary

For me, the best two horses in this race are Crack Shot and Hiromichi. Both are in good form, both won last time out, both scored well on Instant Expert. Hiromichi appears to be better drawn, but Crack Shot seems to have the better pace/draw make-up and just about shades it for me.

Crack Shot is the current (5pm Wednesday) 7/2 favourite with Bet365 and whilst I think he might just prevail, I must say there's not a great deal of value in those odds and a 9/1 E/W bet about Hiromichi might be a more viable option.

Regheeb also looked good on the pace/draw heatmap and this unexposed 4 yr old was only a length behind Hiromichi last time out, despite not having raced for over five months. He's entitled to come on for that run and he's 2lbs better off today, so he could push Hiromichi again today, making him also of E/W interest at 11/1, especially with most firms paying four places.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/05/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.40 Warwick
  • 8.10 Southwell
  • 8.20 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two possible runners of interest...

...and it's the latter that I'm going to look at today.

Liseo runs in the 8.30 Kempton, a 6-runner (it was 7 but Believe In Stars has been withdrawn), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

DAVIDEO drops in class here for his first run in 222 days, during which time he has been gelded. His last win was four starts and ten months ago over today's trip at Newmarket and he now runs on the A/W for just the second time, having been a four-length runner-up here at Kempton over a mile back in November 2022.

CANNON ROCK also drops in class after a disappointing 10th of 11 (22 lengths down) over 1m6f at Newmarket earlier this month, but did win over today's trip on the A/W at Southwell in March, three starts ago, although he was only 6th of 14 here over 1m3f in April.

LISEO is the only course winner in the race, having won here over 1m3f at the start of April on his last A/W outing. He's far better on the A/W than the Flat, having won two of five in 2024 so far. Up in class today, but did get to within 1.25 lengths of the winner in a Class 2 here over 1m3f in November.

ARTISAN DANCER is anther better suited to the A/W (5 wins and 10 further places from 21) than the Flat (unplaced in 7) and was a winner at Wolverhampton five starts ago in early February. He's a consistent placer, so I suspect he'll be in the mix once again.

APPIER is four from nine on the A/W, but it's almost a year since his last win (at Lingfield six starts ago). He raced at Ascot 11 days ago after a six-month break and looked like he needed the run in an eight-length defeat.

IMPHAL makes a yard debut for Paddy Butler today and makes a first non-NH appearance since early July 2019 and a first A/W outing since finishing fourth or eight here at Kempton over two miles way back in August 2018. I'm not sure what the plan is here for this 10 yr old, but he's probably best left watched today.

Instant Expert...

...says Liseo on standard to slow and Kempton (one and the same, of course), whilst Appier's A/W record over the trip is excellent. The place stats...

...say pretty much the same thing, but also show Artisan Dancer as another possible for the frame.

There's rarely a draw bias on the A/W in small fields over trips of this length and this is no exception either...

...I suppose stalls 4 & 5 have placed more often, but there's not a great deal to be gleaned from those numbers above. It's a slightly different story when it comes to assessing pace, though, as those willing to set the tempo of the races have seemed to shade it...

...which would be really helpful if we had a runner keen to take it on. Sadly, this looks like being a falsely run race with none of the six seeming keen to lead the way if their more recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

Unusually for an A/W contest, we've little/no help from either draw or pace, but we do have some useful data on Instant Expert, we know who is and who isn't in form and we have the info from the TS report.

So based on what we do have, it's the sole course winner, in-form Liseo from the TS report. Horse and yard do well here and Hills' (only book open at 3.15pm Tuesday) 9/2 looks more than fair.

The 3/1 Artisan Dancer is probably my next best, but if you wanted an outsider who could go better than the odds might suggest, then the 15/2 about Appier is interesting.

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