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Racing Insights, Monday 03/06/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.20 Listowel
  • 2.30 Brighton
  • 3.05 Gowran Park
  • 4.50 Listowel
  • 8.45 Windsor

...from which, I think I'll head to the South Coast for the 2.30 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Apprentice Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on good/good to firm ground...

Top-weight (carrying 5lbs more than the others) is the fast-finisher Fai Fai and he's our only LTO winner in a field that elsewhere Broxi's win five starts ago is the only success any of these have had in their last seven outings, although My Bonnie Lassie made the frame on her last start (over course and distance, too) and has done so twice in her last four efforts.

All nine raced at this level last time around which was inside the last eight weeks for all bar Gilt Edge, who now returns from a six-month break. Muy Muy Guapo has been far from 'very very handsome' of late, having been unplaced in each of his last seven and it is hoped that first-time cheekpieces help today.

This isn't a handicap, so all bar the 5lb-penalised Fai Fai will carry 9st 9lbs here and with four of them rated at 50 and one at 49, this could be a tight contest, despite the obvious lack of quality. Of the five separated by just 1lb in the ratings, Voltaic has a 3lb claimer on board, whilst the jockeys of Kondratiev Wave and Broxi are both able to take 5lbs off, which may well have a bearing here.

All nine have raced over this trip (2 to 35 times overall) with only Broxi (7 from 35) and He's Our Star (3 from 15) managing to win with the other seven failing to score in any of 66 attempts and it's the same two horses who have won here at Brighton before as Broxi is 2 from 2 here and He's Our Star has won 3 of 16 with the others notching up 21 defeats, whilst over course and distance, Broxi is 2 from 2 and He's Our Man 2 from 3. Other relevant stats come courtesy of Instant Expert, of course...

...where Broxi is the immediate eye-catcher based on wins over the last two years, with both Fai Fai and Voltaic having commendable place records, but you probably didn't need me to spell that out. When it comes to place stats, I'm never too keen about horses 'in the red' after 5 runs or more, so by that standard My Bonnie Lassie and He's Our Star fail on class/course data, whilst Gilt Edge also fails on class and I'd be more than happy to rule them out right now, leaving me with the following in draw order...

I've got them in draw order, because I want to check with our draw analyser to see if any of these be helped or hindered by their stall position based on data gleaned from past similar races here at Brighton...

...where to be honest, I'd say that the bias wasn't that great at all, but if there is an advantage to be had it's probably more relevant for the placings rather than the wins and that those drawn lowest have the better chances. It's a different story from a pace perspective, though, where the onus is to get out quickly with our pace analyser showing that leaders/prominent runners won 51.2% (64) of those 125 races above, despite only accounting for 41.6% (452) of the 1085 runners involved...

...with a similar (but not quite as stark) difference with the places, where they took 46.9% (175) of the 373 places. When we then look back at how this field has approached their most recent races...

...I guess that Broxi might well be afforded a soft early lead and that he'll attempt to make all here.

Summary

Based on the above, it has to be Broxi for me.

Aside from Fai Fai, he brings the best form to the table and is second best off at the weights after allowances, just 1lb inferior to Kondratiev Wave. He has the best win stats on Instant Expert, backed up by good place data. He has been drawn in stall one, so he has the rail to guide him and only one direction to look out for danger, but based on the pace stats, he might not see another runner after the start and if so, it'll probably be late on.

LTO-winner Fai Fai is only two stalls away and might well get a tow into the race, which would help but he and Voltaic are the two best suited to making the frame here today anyway and it is these two that I expect to pose the biggest threat to Broxi here. If pushed to split the placers, I think I like Voltaic slightly more as he carries 8lbs less than Fai Fai, but Fai Fai is the stronger finisher : it might be tight!

As of 4.20pm on Sunday, only Bet365 had shown any odds and they went...

I can understand why Kondratiev Wave might be popular, but 3/1 seems mighty short for a horse on a twenty-one race losing streak and 7/2 about Broxi looks better value.

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.00 Epsom
  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.25 Listowel
  • 4.45 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Doncaster
  • 6.28 Stratford

...from which the highlight has to be the nine-runner, Group 3, Princess Elizabeth Stakes for 3yo+ Fillies & Mares, shown on your racecards as the 2.00 Epsom, where they'll go left-handed on good to soft ground over a trip just three yards beyond 1m½f...

Royal Dress and Sea of Thieves both managed to win last time out at Listed class with the former beating the re-opposing Breege (finished third) by just two short heads in a tight contest at Goodwood four weeks ago, whilst Running Lion was a 3.5-length runner-up in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes a day later at Newmarket. Two of this field are on losing runs with Breege winless in ten since scoring on debut just over two years ago, whilst Julia Augusta has lost seven on the bounce since opening her career with a pair of Class 5 wins over a mile and she's also almost two years without a win.

Julia Augusta was fourth in a Listed race for Roger Varian eight weeks ago and now makes a yard debut for David O'Meara, Sea Of Thieves wears a tongue tie for the first time on her return to UK action. She won a Listed race in France LTO, but is up two classes from her last UK run. Sparks Fly is also up in class after a 3.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock five weeks ago and the quickest-turned back out (20 days), Chic Columbine is denoted as a fast-finisher. She (along with Glimpsed) gets a 12lb age allowance here as a 3yr old and that effectively makes her best off at the weights, as she's rated just 3lbs lower than Running Lion and Sparks Fly (103 vs 106). The afore mentioned Julia Augusta, however, carries 12lbs more than Chic Columbine despite being rated some 11lbs lower!

Astral Beau was third of six in this race last year and that's the only time any of this field have raced here at Epsom before, but Astral Beau, Julia Augusta, Royal Dress and Sparks Fly have all scored over 1m to 1m1f on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, where Sparks Fly has the best relevant record and Astral Beau the worst...

Admittedly, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but Sparks Fly's 2 from 3 on the going and 6 from 6 at the trip are certainly worth noting, as are Astral Beau's 1 from 7 at Class 1 and her 1 from 9 at the trip sadly. Breege, as we know, hasn't won any of her last ten and most have been Class 1 affairs over similar trips but I wouldn't write her off just yet, as she certainly knows how to make the frame at this level...

...where her Class 1 form line reads 32725423, putting her right into contention for at least a place again today along with Running Lion whose own Class 1 form reads 12382. Chic Columbine has won four of her last five, but they've all been at 6½f/7f, so this is a fairly big step in trip today for her.

Past similar (slightly expanded criteria, of course to get workable data) races show no real draw bias here...

...and there's probably no real pace bias either from those races, even if prominent runners have a much poorer win percentage...

I'm happy to overlook that relatively low 7 from 77 return, because those runners have made the frame as often as the other styles and could have just been a bit unlucky; they're probably only 2 or 3 winners shy of par.

So without a pace and/or draw bias, I'm going to class this as a fair race, where the best horses should prevail all being well and based on form / Instant Expert, I'd lean towards (in card order) Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine as being the four to choose from.

When we talk about the draw and the pace of a race, it's often useful to look at how they interact, because in those races above there is no obvious bias in either pace or draw, but when combined...

...we'd ideally have a high drawn runner in mid-division dropping in for a late run or a runner in stalls 1-6 leading the way, which makes the following quite interesting...

Astral Beau was third in this race last year, Sparks Fly was the standout on Instant Expert and Breege is the perennial placer.

Summary

The analysis above led me to believe that the winner and placers would come from Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine, whilst the pace/draw heat map threw Astral Beau's name into the ring, making the market as of 4.30pm Friday of little/no surprise to anyone...

...other than perhaps a feeling that Running Lion might be a little on the short side after being overturned as a 6/4 fav last time out. On her day, she's probably the pick here, but I'm not sensing a great deal of value at 15/8 so whilst she might very well go on to win, she won't be burdened with the weight of my money!

Sparks Fly is really interesting, of course but not backable for me at 5/1, but if you do want an E/W punt then any (or all) of the next three in the betting could be the way forward. God, I hate agreeing with the bookies!

Have a great weekend, guys (and girls, of course!)...
Chris

Racing Insights, Friday 31/05/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for this Friday, but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 4.15 Chepstow
  • 5.20 Tramore
  • 7.35 Stratford
  • 8.00 Down Royal
  • 8.05 Stratford

...the best of which is clearly the Epsom race, but only five are set to go to post, so I think I'll take a look at the 7.35 Stratford, an 8-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ Hunters Chase over a left-handed 3m3½f on good to soft ground...

What A Glance won last time out and has had five top 2 finishes in a row, as has Go On Chez who comes here seeking a hat-trick, as does Fairly Famous who has won three of his last five. All eight have won at least one of their last five outings and all bar Law of Gold (Pulled Up) made the frame on their last run.

Most of these ran (at Cheltenham) four weeks ago and Go on Chez also ran earlier this month, but Annamix is the longest rested at 50 days and he's the only one who raced at Class 2 last time around, as the other seven are all up two classes today.

Course and/or distance wins are at a premium for this field, but Law of Gold bucks that trend, having scored over track and trip here when winning this very race three years ago, when offiically rated 12lbs worse than today. It's not a handicap, of course, they'll all carry 12st, but based on their official ratings the 139-rated Annamix is 2lbs better off than Fairly Famous and some 24lbs better than Lift Me Up.

Instant Expert's overview of the field's past endeavours under similar circumstances looks like this...

...and if truth be told, we're not gleaning much from the win side of things here, but we do have more to work with from the place data. From the win stats I have concerns about D'jango at the trip as he seems better suited to 2m7f/3m and his place record at this type of trip is the worst in the field, so I'd probably rule him out right here. Premier Magic has only made the frame once in four attempts in this grade and whilst that's a small sample size, others look better suited to this level than he, so I'm taking him out here too.

This leaves me with just six to consider, from which Annamix and Go On Chez make most appeal from the data above.

With regards to pace, there's not a huge advantage to any particular running style, although those racing in mid-division have an extraordinarily poor return whereas from a place perspective, the onus is clearly to find a front runner...

...so we need to look back at each runner's last few races, which look like this...

...and this is sadly not too helpful either with it looking like being a falsely-run race, but that should play into the hands of the better horses. It looks like I've picked a poor/difficult race here to analyse despite it being a Class 2 affair. In these cases, I tend to refer back to the racecard for some pointers.

Summary

Fairly short piece today due to the lack of viable data, so I'm going back to square one to summarise from the racecard.

Annamix is my pick today, he has won two of his last four and three of six since last Easter. He's the only one not stepping up in class and ran really well to finish third in the Foxhunters at Aintree behind Its On The Line, whose recent form reads 111211. Annamix scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and he's the highest-rated of all the runners, so is technically best off at the weights. He also seems flexible on pace based on his last four runs, so (without total conviction, it must be said), it would be Annamix for me here.

Best of the rest might well be Go On Chez who comes here on a hat-trick, having a 2 from 2 record in Hunter Chases and a form line of 1222211 since being pulled up at Cheltenham in October 2022 and I fancy him to just edge out the other LTO winner Fairly Famous, who is rated at just 2lbs worse than Annamix.

Racing Insights, Thursday 30/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.00 Ffos Las
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.20 Ripon
  • 5.25 Ripon
  • 5.30 Fairyhouse
  • 6.47 Limerick

...and I suspect that of the races above, we'll get more Instant Expert data from the 4.20 Ripon, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on soft ground...

Bottom-weight Ey Up It's The Boss is not only our sole LTO winner (or even placer for that matter) in the pack, having scored here over track over trip 11 days ago, but also our sole class riser, as he steps up two classes today, Conversely, the top three in the weights are all down in class, with Bennetot and Loyal Touch down from Class 2, whilst Zarabanda was last home of eight in a Listed race, as she has been for three races on the trot!

None of our seven LTO losers even made the frame, but all bar Bennetot, Bodorgan and Titian have won at least one of their last six outings. Rogue Sea is the only runner in this field without a run in the last six weeks and he now races for the first time since mid-September 2023, having moved yards to bryan Smart and undergone a gelding operation during his layoff.

Bennetot and Bodorgan have yet to win at a similar trip, but Zarabanda, Baryshnikov, Cockalorum and Ey Up It's The Boss have all won over course and distance whilst Rogue Sea's last win (51 weeks ago) was over 1m3f on this course and it's two of our course and distance winners that initially catch the eye on our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

Baryshnikov's poor return at going, class and trip have already put me off backing him and Zarabanda is only let down by a lack of wins at this trip (her best results have been at 1m/1m½f), but her soft credentials are the best here with Cockalorum also faring well. From a place perspective, we still seem to be looking at the same horse, drawn in stalls 3 to 7...

....but our draw analyser would suggest those drawn 1 to 5 would be the ones to beat, particularly from a place perspective...

...so that could be especially good for three of our course and distance winners, Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and Zarabanda.

If we then run those 20-odd races (I know it's a smaller than preferred sample size) through our pace analyser, we find that the wins have been spread fairly equally around the four possible running styles, but from a percentage point of view, you really want to be backing leaders/front-runners here and even more so if if you're angling towards an E/W pick...

That 63.64% place strike rate is quite telling here, so if Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and/or Zarabanda are front-runners, then they look like good bets to make the frame at the very least, so let's check the field's pace profile...

...and it looks like the pace is going to come from the lower end of the draw with Loyal Touch and Cockalorum the most likely front-runners here.

Summary

Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and Zarabanda are all course and distance winners and all scored well on both Instant Expert and draw, but when it came to pace profiling Cockalorum was the standout of the three and he's got to be good for a place here as he steps down in trip.

Only Hills had opened a book at 2.25pm Wednesday and they were sadly only offering 6/1 about Cockalorum, which is a bit short for E/W betting for me, but don't let me put you off if those odds are acceptable. Loyal Touch was the early 10/3 favourite and his low drawn front-running could well propel him to a place too, but I think the price is a bit mean based on his Instant Expert scores and an indifferent effort last time out.

If Cockalorum drifts, then I'd definitely put him up as an E/W option, but on the other hand Zarabanda looks a bit long as the 11/1 outsider, as she seems to tick plenty of boxes here apart from pace, but there's a chance she gets towed along by the two front0runners inside her and the pace/draw heat map for this race suggests her centrally drawn mid-division running style might not be disastrous either...

...so Zarabanda at 11/1 E/W is the option that currently interests me most with Cockalorum, Ey Up It's The Boss and market leader Loyal Touch all hoping to be in the mix.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 pointsThe final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
My fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) for The Shortlist have generated the following qualifiers......and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 4.55 Leicester
  • 5.20 Brighton
  • 5.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.55 Bangor
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

...from which I think I'll have a look at the Secret Handsheikh vs Jacquelina battle from The Shortlist in the 2.15 Brighton, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 5f 60yds on good ground...

Sole LTO winner Jacquelina arrives here seeking a three-week hat-trick after a heavy ground win over 5f at Windsor and a good ground course and distanc esuccess here a week ago and she is, in fact, the only one of the eight to have made the frame on their last run, but at least all bar bottom-weight and 8-race maiden Haveagobeau have won at least one of their last seven outings.

Haveagobeau's cause isn't helped by not having had a run for eight months either, when all bar Boom The Groom (rested for 60 days) of his rivals have raced in the last month. Better news for Mokaatil, Alpine Girl and the fast-finishing Secret Handsheikh, though, as they all drop down a class to run here.

As an eight-race maiden, Haveagobeau is the only runner in the field yet to win at either track or trip with all seven rivals having won at least once over a similar distance. Jacquelina isn't the only course and distance winner, though, as Batchelor Boy, Secret Handsheikh and Cabeza de Llave (spanner head in Spanish?) have all also achieved the feat, whilst 116-race veteran Boom The Groom has won here over 6f...

As you'd expect from their places on The Shortlist, both Jacquelina and Secret Handsheikh fare well on Instant Expert, as does Alpine Girl off an admittedly small sample size. Mokaatil and Batchelor Boy would probably prefer the ground to be a bit quicker, Haveagobeau has won a race of any description and Boom The Groom's 'better' recent form has been on A/W tracks away from Brighton. Batchelor Boy also has a terrible win record here on this track at 1 from 14 and only 3 placed efforts in his 13 defeats...

I often use the place stats to cross runners off my list of possibles and Haveagobeau has to go now. I knew he hadn't won a race, but the above data says he hasn't been getting close either and he's clearly the weakest of the eight. Batchelor Boy's record on good ground causes concerns, but he has gone well at this class and trip, whilst his 29% place strike rate isn't horrific.

Past races here haven't shown a massive (in my opinion, anyway) draw bias, as those drawn low have a lower win percentage but a higher place ration than those drawn further out, suggesting that there's not a great deal to be had from the draw...

...whilst it's a different story from the pace angle...

...with those willing to set the pace getting the best results, especially if drawn low to mid-field...

...which based on the field's recent efforts could be more very good news for Jacquelina from her fairly central draw...

Summary

More pictures than words today, but that's sometimes more helpful. And it's probably no surprise that I'm suggesting Jacquelina as my likeliest winner here. She's in great form, scores well on The Shortlist and Instant Expert and has a good pace/draw profile for this race. Fellow featured runner Secret Handsheikh also looks to be in with a good shout of making the frame and if pushed for a third placer, I'd probably look towards Batchelor Boy on his recent form line, even if conditions aren't exactly ideal here for him.

No odds available at 3.15pm Monday, but I'd expect to see something like Jacquelina 3/1, Secret Handsheikh 4/1, Batchelor Boy 6/1, so none would be E/W viable if those odds are right, unfortunately.Please Note No column tomorrow (Tuesday for Wednesday) racing as I'm away at a family funeral. Normal Service resumes Wednesday, of course.

Racing Insights, Monday 27/05/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.15 Huntingdon
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.05 Cartmel
  • 4.35 Redcar
  • 5.55 Leicester

The highest-rated of those races above, the 4.35 Redcar, also has a good pace spread, so we're going to focus on this 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on soft ground, that will be heavy in places...

Maghlaak has made the frame in all six career starts, winning on three occasions and is the only LTO winner in this field. Alpha Crucis was third of eight at Goodwood under similar conditions to today, but none of the others even made the frame on their last outings. All bar Machete have won at least one of their last six races, though, with the top-weight French raider on a losing run of seven.

Arthur's Realm and Bystander both step up a class here and it's a day/race full of 'firsts' as it's the first...

  • race for David O'Meara, first in the UK and first handicap race anywhere for Machete
  • time in cheekpieces for Bill Silvers
  • fitting of a tongue-tie for To Catch a Thief
  • wearing of a visor by Stressfree

All those who ran in the UK last time out raced either 10 or 23 days ago, but Machete's last run in France for Fabrice Chappet was some eight months ago and it's not inconceivable that he might need the run. He's also one of four (along with Bill Silvers, Arthur's Realm & Alpha Crucis) yet to win at today's trip, whilst the field has no previous Redcar wins. That said only Bystander and Stressfree have raced here once each!

Half of the field have decent place form on soft ground, but unusually for French imports, that's not the case for Machete and seeing as he hasn't raced for eight months, has lost his last seven since a win fourteen months ago, has no win at the trip and doesn't appear to 'get' soft ground, I'm crossing his name off here.

Also based on place form, I'm doubtful about To Catch A Thief, Bill Silvers and especially Lord Protector, so that leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10, so I should still be covered in the event of any draw bias! The in-form Maghlaak is also the main eyecatcher from Instant Expert above, but Qitaal's numbers are good as are those of bottom-weight Alpha Crucis.

I referred to a potential draw bias above, so I've checked past similar races and they say...

...and based on that data, I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias overall. The mid drawn 4 wins from 78 doesn't make a lot of sense when either side you have 10 wins and 9 wins, but I should point out that stall 1 alone has 6 wins and 2 further places from 23 runs, so that skews things a little and might be good news for Qitaal. The fact that there's not a great deal of difference in the place stats helps to bring me to the little/no bias conclusion, but I suspect that our feature of the day, PACE, will be of more help.

Here's how those 23 races above have been won...

...with prominent/leading runners clearly coming out on top, which based on this field's most recent efforts looks like even more good news for Qitaal...

Summary

The in-form Maghlaak and pace-setting Qitaal look like the most likely ones here and they were only a neck apart last time out. Qitaal is a pound better off here, but Maghlaak was running for the first time in almost a year, so both should technically go better here, which might result in another narrow defeat for Qitaal. I'm not sure how they'll finish, of course, but I suspect it will be tight again and Qitaal offers more value at 6/1* than Maghlaak at 7/2* , I suppose.

As for the final place, Bystander (9/2*) has to be considered from his pace profile, but I think Alpha Crucis might be the one, despite often being slow away. He was actually third behind Maghlaak and Qitaal 23 days ago, just 1.25 lengths off the pace and whilst Qitaal is a pound better off with Maghlaak here, Alpha Crucis is 2lbs better off with Qitaal, which could be interesting and at 13/2*, he's borderline E/W territory for me.

*odds taken from Bet365 & Hills at 5.00pm Sunday

Racing Insights, Saturday 25/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of combos for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover..

  • 1.20 Curragh
  • 1.50 Haydock
  • 3.35 Chester
  • 3.45 Goodwood
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 5.35 Windsor

Normally, I'd be covering that Listed race from Goodwood, but up here in the North West we've something even better : the 1.50 Haydock, a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for 3yo+ horses over a straight 5f on soft ground...

Seven Questions and Equality both won last time out, but the latter is our only class mover, having raced in a Class 2 handicap at Musselburgh five weeks ago. Rogue Lightning was fifth in France after winning three on the bounce here in the UK. Makarova and Vadream are both winless in their last five.

No new headgear or equipment being used here, no yard debuts and just Equality moving in class. Quality Aussie sprinter Asfoora makes her UK debut today nine weeks after a ¾-length defeat at Group 1 and it's worth noting that she has won three (inc 1 x Gr2 and 1 x Gr3) of five soft ground races. She has won over this trip before, as have all her rivals, but only Equality (course and distance) and Kerdos (6f on debut) have won at Haydock already with Makarova and Live In The Dream sharing three defeats...

The going doesn't really look like an issue for any of these runners, even if two of them are yet to make the frame : three combined runs isn't a hugely reliable sample size, but Makarova and Vadream have had plenty attempts at Class 1 and haven't really impressed. Kerdos' win record over the trip is poor if truth be told and the ones I'd taske forward from Instant Expert are Live In the Dream, Seven Questions, Vadream (place potential?), Beautiful Diamond and Rogue Lightning along with Asfoora based on her overseas record.

So, I've omitted runners in stalls 1, 2, 4 and 5, so I'm hoping there's no low draw bias here or I'm staring at Live In The Dream from stall 3! Thankfully, runners in stalls 4 to 8 have fared beast in soft ground straight sprints here at Haydock over the years...

...with stalls 3 to 7 faring best for the places, which overall is especially good news for the likes of Seven Questions and Asfoora. They key to winning sprints here at Haydock, though, rests more on race tactics/positioning, as those horses prepared to take the race on early have tended to win most often...

...with leaders winning 21.05% of their races and non-leaders winning just 8.67% of theirs and there's a similar (45.61% vs 28.46%) story with the places, so we need to check how these horses normally run via the pace tab...

...and it looks like Live In The Dream will be the one to catch here.

Summary

Live In The Dream looks like he'll try to make all here, a tactic that served him really well when winning the Gr1 Nunthorpe last autumn. He ran well in the Breeders Cup last year and was third in this race last time around and he'd be the one to beat in my book. He was a 4/1 shot at 5.45pm on Friday and whilst that's not generous, I'd say it was fair.

In opposition, I do like the look of the Aussie raider Asfoora, a dual-Group race winner on soft ground, who comes here as a bit of an unknown quantity, I suppose, whilst Seven Questions is drawn well, is in good form and will be up with the pace, so should be in the mix. Asfoora and Seven Questions currently trade at 5/1 and 16/1 respectively, so a small E/W play on the latter might be the ticket here.

Enjoy the Bank Holiday, I'll be back next week.

Racing Insights, Friday 24/05/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Bath
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 4.10 Goodwood
  • 7.00 Hereford
  • 7.35 Downpatrick

And seeing as the 'free' list has a Listed race, we'll cover that one. It's the 3.35 Goodwood, an 8-runner (hopefully!), 1m2f flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. The trip is a right-handed 1m2f on good/good to soft ground and here's the lineup...

Sole LTO winner Isle of Jura has won his last three (2 x Listed and 1 x Gr1) as part of an excellent 4 from 5 streak in Bahrain taking his total recent form to six wins and a runner-up finish from eight starts, although he is up two classes from his last UK run if not overall. Royal Rhyme is two from three and three from five, Mujtaba won three starts ago and Passion and Glory has lost three in a row after a run of five successive wins and six wins from seven. Elegancia is two from four, Empress Wu won on debut, but is 0 from 4 since and both Claymore and Sea of Roses are on losing streaks of eight races.

Mujtaba wears a tongue tie today for the first time, the afore-mentioned Isle of Jura is our only class mover and if this was based on handicap marks, Mujtaba would be best off at the weights by 2lbs over Royal Rhyme and 3lbs over Isle of Jura; Elegancia is easily the worst off, rated at just 91. Many of these might not quite be at their best today, as only Sea of Roses, Mujtaba and Claymore have raced on the last three to five weeks or so. Isle of Jura, Elegancia, Empress Wu, Royal Rhyme and Passion and Glory all return from breaks of 77, 195, 199, 216 and 580 days respectively and I do wonder about Passion and Glory after so long away from the track.

Isle of Jura and Sea of Roses have yet to win at this trip, whilst only Royal Rhyme (course and distance) and Passion and Glory (1m4f) have won at Goodwood before...

On the face of things, Royal Rhyme and Passion and Glory look the best suited by today's expected race conditions, but it's still a big ask of the latter after 19 months out of action. Clymore and Empress Wu lack wins under these circumstances, but Mujtaba is 3 from 7 on the going and has good place stats at class/distance.

In previous past similar races, stall 1 (Sea of Roses here) has done really well...

...with stalls 5 to 7 (Royal Rhyme, Mujtaba, Claymore) also having good win records and the same stalls have topped the averages from a place perspective across 50+ races that have tended to be dominated by horses who like to be at the head of the pack...

...which based on this field's last few runs is another positive for both Passion and Glory and Royal Rhyme...

...whilst it's Isle of Jura, Royal Rhyme and Mujtaba who seem best off on our pace/draw heatmap.

Summary

One horse's name has popped up in every bit of analysis I've done, so it's no surprise that Royal Rhyme was the 5/4 favourite at 7pm on Thursday evening. Isle of Jura and Mujtaba were the nest two in the market and probably deservedly so, even if not at E/W backable odds for me (they were 4/1 and 11/2), but based on past efforts and taking fitness on trust, there might just be a bit of validity for small 20/1 E/W punts on Claymore and/or Passion and Glory.

That said, despite it being a decent standard of race, it's not one I'll be digging deep for financially!

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.58 Market Rasen
  • 5.15 Catterick
  • 6.25 Limerick
  • 6.55 Limerick
  • 7.37 Sandown

...but I think I'll ignore for various reasons (never bet on races that don't appeal) and look at whatever might be the day's highest-rated/most-valuable handicap. That actually turns out to be the 8.42 Sandown, a 12-runner, Class 3 (£9020 to the winner), 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Crack Shot and Hiromichi both won last time and they have both won three of their last six outings, whilst Navagio, Regheeb and Dragon Icon have all won twice in six or less. Excel Power is the only one without a win in seven starts, having suffered ten defeats on the bounce.

Three of the top four in the weights (Alzahir, Navagio and Dual Identity) drop in class here, as does bottom-weight Magic Memories who runs for the first time since the Moores changed the licence naming.

Classic might well need a run here today, as at 268 days since his last run, he's the only one without a run since the start of April, but he is one of just previous course winners, having won here over 7f last July. Dual Identity won a 1m2f handicap at a higher level here last September.

This pair of course winners are, however, amongst five (Alzahir, Regheeb & Al Rufaa being the others) yet to win over today's trip...

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, doesn't have masses of past relevant runs for this field, but does suggest that Classic, Crack Shot and Hiromichi might be best suited to the conditions. That said, there are few alarm bells ringing here, other than maybe Dual Identity's failure to win at the going and trip and Navagio's UK mark being much higher than his last win over in Ireland. If we then consider the place stats from those races above, it becomes more apparent about Dual Identity's dislike of this trip...

...which is unfortunate, because the other columns show he has ability, He's better at 1m2f where he has four wins and five further places from just thirteen starts, but it seems a mile is just on the sharp side for him. At this point, I'd probably remove a few of these from my calculations and just take the following runners forward...

I've arranged them in draw order, as I'm now going to see if any of them might be handed any kind of advantage from their stalls position, but our draw analyser says there's not a great deal in it, although those in stalls 5 and above have done slightly better for themselves...

Our pace analyser also says there's not a great deal in it pace-wise too, but that hold-up horses have fared worst of all...

...and that the optimum pace/draw combinations would be low-drawn runners in mid-division or leaders drawn centrally with high-drawn leaders also doing well...

We already know the draw, but from a pace perspective, here's how the field have approached their most recent races...

...and if they go that way today, then Crack Shot fulfils the role of low-drawn mid-division runner and Regheeb would be the high drawn leader.

Summary

For me, the best two horses in this race are Crack Shot and Hiromichi. Both are in good form, both won last time out, both scored well on Instant Expert. Hiromichi appears to be better drawn, but Crack Shot seems to have the better pace/draw make-up and just about shades it for me.

Crack Shot is the current (5pm Wednesday) 7/2 favourite with Bet365 and whilst I think he might just prevail, I must say there's not a great deal of value in those odds and a 9/1 E/W bet about Hiromichi might be a more viable option.

Regheeb also looked good on the pace/draw heatmap and this unexposed 4 yr old was only a length behind Hiromichi last time out, despite not having raced for over five months. He's entitled to come on for that run and he's 2lbs better off today, so he could push Hiromichi again today, making him also of E/W interest at 11/1, especially with most firms paying four places.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/05/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.40 Warwick
  • 8.10 Southwell
  • 8.20 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two possible runners of interest...

...and it's the latter that I'm going to look at today.

Liseo runs in the 8.30 Kempton, a 6-runner (it was 7 but Believe In Stars has been withdrawn), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

DAVIDEO drops in class here for his first run in 222 days, during which time he has been gelded. His last win was four starts and ten months ago over today's trip at Newmarket and he now runs on the A/W for just the second time, having been a four-length runner-up here at Kempton over a mile back in November 2022.

CANNON ROCK also drops in class after a disappointing 10th of 11 (22 lengths down) over 1m6f at Newmarket earlier this month, but did win over today's trip on the A/W at Southwell in March, three starts ago, although he was only 6th of 14 here over 1m3f in April.

LISEO is the only course winner in the race, having won here over 1m3f at the start of April on his last A/W outing. He's far better on the A/W than the Flat, having won two of five in 2024 so far. Up in class today, but did get to within 1.25 lengths of the winner in a Class 2 here over 1m3f in November.

ARTISAN DANCER is anther better suited to the A/W (5 wins and 10 further places from 21) than the Flat (unplaced in 7) and was a winner at Wolverhampton five starts ago in early February. He's a consistent placer, so I suspect he'll be in the mix once again.

APPIER is four from nine on the A/W, but it's almost a year since his last win (at Lingfield six starts ago). He raced at Ascot 11 days ago after a six-month break and looked like he needed the run in an eight-length defeat.

IMPHAL makes a yard debut for Paddy Butler today and makes a first non-NH appearance since early July 2019 and a first A/W outing since finishing fourth or eight here at Kempton over two miles way back in August 2018. I'm not sure what the plan is here for this 10 yr old, but he's probably best left watched today.

Instant Expert...

...says Liseo on standard to slow and Kempton (one and the same, of course), whilst Appier's A/W record over the trip is excellent. The place stats...

...say pretty much the same thing, but also show Artisan Dancer as another possible for the frame.

There's rarely a draw bias on the A/W in small fields over trips of this length and this is no exception either...

...I suppose stalls 4 & 5 have placed more often, but there's not a great deal to be gleaned from those numbers above. It's a slightly different story when it comes to assessing pace, though, as those willing to set the tempo of the races have seemed to shade it...

...which would be really helpful if we had a runner keen to take it on. Sadly, this looks like being a falsely run race with none of the six seeming keen to lead the way if their more recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

Unusually for an A/W contest, we've little/no help from either draw or pace, but we do have some useful data on Instant Expert, we know who is and who isn't in form and we have the info from the TS report.

So based on what we do have, it's the sole course winner, in-form Liseo from the TS report. Horse and yard do well here and Hills' (only book open at 3.15pm Tuesday) 9/2 looks more than fair.

The 3/1 Artisan Dancer is probably my next best, but if you wanted an outsider who could go better than the odds might suggest, then the 15/2 about Appier is interesting.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/05/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with Mole Court of the most obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.58 Punchestown
  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 7.40 Huntingdon
  • 7.58 Hexham
  • 8.20 Cork
  • 8.40 Huntingdon

So I suppose it makes sense to have a look at Mole Court and Ballintubber Boy from The Shortlist, as they run in one of our 'free' races, the 7.40 Huntingdon, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 3m 1f 10y on good ground...

My initial thoughts here are that we're possibly looking at a three-horse race between (in card order) featured runner Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya, but only Mole Court won last time out and he has actually won five of his last six outings.

None of the other five won last time out either; Planet Legend was a runner-up beaten by just a neck at Ludlow (with Ubetya six lengths and two places further back), but the rest of the field failed to make the frame with both Edison Kent and Petrastar not completing their races. All runners have won at least one of their last seven outings, though.

Only Petrastar ran at this grade last time out with all of his rivals here bar Back On the Lash and Edison Kent (who both drop down from Class 2) stepping up a class today. Unusually, though, we've no yard or handicap debutants, nor any new headgear being worn or any return from wind surgery/gelding and most of the field ran just 25-27 days ago.

Back On The Lash has had almost eight weeks off, but that shouldn't be an issue here, but Edison Kent hasn't raced for almost four months and hasn't completed a race for over five months, whilst Ballintubber Boy's last race was a week shy of six months ago.

Ballintubber Boy is, however, the only runner in this field to have won over course and distance, which he achieved two starts/seven months ago. Midnight Reflection and featured runner Mole Court are the other two runners to have won at a similar trip, whilst only Back On The Lash, Edison Kent and Ubetya are yet to win here at Huntingdon. Mind you, only the 0 from 3 Edison Kent of that trio has actually raced here...

My immediate takeaways from Instant Expert are that Midnight Reflection's better efforts have come over shorter trips than this and that Mole Court's +24lbs from his last win can't be right, so I'll check.

Ah, so his mark today of 116 is technically 24lbs higher than his last hurdles win fifteen months ago, but has since won five of six over fences off marks of up to 120 last time out, so he's actually 4lbs lower than his last win, whereas Petrastar runs off 108 here, the same as his chasing mark and is now 14lbs below his last hurdles win, but that was in August 2020 and his hurdle form since then reads 776P2367 (mainly in 7-runner races, too), so it's unsurprising to see his mark falling.

Planet Legend has the showing on place stats, whilst Ubetya is unexposed under these conditions. Ballintubber Boy's numbers are a little skewed by his successes in the earlier part of the two-year period, whilst Edison Kent would probably want a bit more cut in the ground.

There doesn't appear to be much of a pace bias here at Huntingdon when you get beyond three miles...

...but there has been a slight advantage the further forward you have raced, which probably partially explains why Ballintubber Boy and Mole Court have been successful here in the past, if there recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

From the outset, I thought that featured runner Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya were the best runners in the race and there's not been any evidence shown above to sway me from that thought. There's not a huge pace bias, but those running furthest forward have fared better and my three are expected to race in that same Mole Court, Planet Legend and Ubetya order, so that's how I'll arrange my 1-2-3 today.

The early (4pm Monday) Bet365 market agrees with my 1-2 and has Mole Court and Planet Legend at 9/4 and 3/1 respectively, but they go 10's about Ubetya and that looks like a decent E/W offer to me.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 20/05/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 5.06 Windsor
  • 5.40 Windsor
  • 6.50 Roscommon
  • 7.40 Windsor

...so we're off to Windsor. I've opted to look at the first of the list, that 5.06 race, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...

Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio all come here off the back of LTO wins inside the last five weeks and Freds Mate won three starts ago. I Love Paris, Rakki and Malinka are yet to get off the mark after 5, 4 and 3 starts respectively.

I Love Paris and Rakki both drop in class here and that might help them here and Freds Mate has been gelded since his last run. That run was 136 days ago, so he might well need the run, but at 184 days off, Alacrity's fitness will be tested hee ,as the others have all raced in the last 37 days.

We don't have much relevant form to go off, but Caprelo won over this trip at Kempton last time out and Lucentio's win here a fortnight ago was over course and distance. Sadly this field have very little experience at this level and this is reflected in a lack of data within Instant Expert..

 

...so I'll move straight on to the draw stats, which suggest that runners in stalls 1 and 2 could be disadvantaged...

...whilst those races above have been won as follows...

...and with so many different viable options available, it could be an open contest, where I suspect Alacrity will be the early pacesetter, if his recent runs are anything to go by...

On that 'evidence', Malinka would be the back marker but be aware of horses changing how they run in the early stages of their careers.

If we now put what we know about the field into that pace-draw heatmap...

Summary

Pretty short and hopefully sweet today and I can't help but think that the 3 LTO winners, Alacrity, Caprelo and Lucentio will provide our first three home here, although Rakki looks good on the pace/draw heatmap.

Alacrity might need a run, Caprelo's form has all been on the A/W while Lucentio's LTO win was on soft ground, so none of the three are perfect.

Should Alacrity be race-fit, then he'd be my tentative pick at 5/1*, offering more apparent value than the 5/2* and 11/4* being offered about Caprelo and Lucentio with the latter being my preference.

*prices taken from Bet365 at 5pm Sunday

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/05/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.40 Navan
  • 4.20 Thirsk
  • 5.05 Bangor
  • 5.35 Doncaster

And of the twelve UK races in total from above, I'm going to look at the highest rated which is the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes aka the 1.50 Newbury, a 9-runner, 4yo+ flat contest over a left-handed 1m4f on good/good to soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a battle between Middle Earth and Salt bay for the right to finish second behind the King's horse Desert Hero, but things don't always pan out as they first appear, so let's dive into the recent form first...

All nine have won at least one of their last six, including German import So Moonstruck (3rd in the German Derby LTO), who makes a UK debut today. Bolster is three from five and won last time out, as did Middle Earth, who has won three of his last four starts, whilst Maxi King arrives here seeking a fourth win on the bounce.

Maxi King is upped in class here, though, as are Bolster and Cemhaan. Middle Earth might be in need of a run after a 225-day lay-off, whilst it's over 22 months since So Moonstruck was last seen, but the other seven have all raced in the last four weeks.

So far, only three of these have raced here at Newbury for a collective 0 wins from 4, although Salt Bay has made the frame on both attempts. Cemhaan, Desert hero, Maxi King and Middle Earth have already won over today's trip according to Instant Expert...

...where Middle Earth seems to be the one best suited so far, off an admittedly small number of relevant runs. Flying Honours has some decent numbers there, too, but finished last of 11 on his sole 2023 start and was last of seven on his only run this year. Desert Hero is proven at the trip, but would prefer more cut in the ground. That said, his place stats are excellent...

...and on those alone, he appears to steal Middle Earth's thunder and both King of Conquest and Flying Honours look vulnerable. Desert hero is the highest-rated runner in the race at 113, which technically makes him at least 3lbs 'well-in' off equal weights, whilst Maxi King is rated some 17lbs lower than Desert Hero

Somewhat unusually for a trip of 1m4f, there does seem to be an advantage to be had from the draw, as those drawn lowest have fared much better than others...

...which is good news for the likes of Salt Bay, Maxi King and Bolster, but there's no huge pace bias here...

...which is probably just as well, considering there doesn't appear to be much between most of the field in terms of their pace profile...

Bolster might well lead the way here from stall 3 and Cemhaan might well try to track across from stall 8, but the lack of general pace will play into the hands of the better runners who can just set about their own race and with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that high-drawn mid-division runners fare really well here, that could be useful for Desert Hero...

Summary

This has to be Desert Hero's race to win or lose, hasn't it? I think he's the best in the field, he's also the highest-rated and after finishing third in the St Leger (1m6½f) last year and only beaten by a head in a Group 3 over 1m2f at Sandown recently after a 223 day absence, the return to 1m4f should see him back in the winners' enclosure.

Sadly, we're not getting rich off him at a best price of 11/8 and with Middle Earth and Salt Bay next in the market at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, I agree with the bookies' 1-2-3 today, but I do slightly prefer Salt Bay to Middle Earth. Neither are backable as E/W prospects (but if forecasts/exactas or tricasts/trifectas are you thing, who knows?), so if I was going to pull one from the pack for a small wager, it'd possibly be Bolster at 18/1.

Enjoy your weekend, folks, Wembley beckons for us Bolton boys.

Racing Insights, Friday 17/05/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have generated no runners for me to consider but thankfully, this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.15 York
  • 3.53 Newmarket
  • 4.25 Newmarket
  • 4.55 Newmarket
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.30 Leopardstown

...from which, I'll take a look at the 4.25 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on the good to firm Rowley course...

Iron Lion and true Courage both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three, as has Composite. Most of the field have won at least once in their last five but The Whipmaster and Moktasaab are on losing runs of seven and twelve races respectively whilst Swiss Money has been beaten in all seven UK starts.

It also looks like he's up two classes here, but that's from a hurdles run, his last Flat race was at this level, but Iron Lion, Composite (second handicap run today), The Whipmaster (new trainer licence name, NOT new trainer but does wear first-time tongue-tie) and Moktasaab are all up one class for this one.

Most of the field have raced in the last five weeks, so should be race fit and Moktasaab should also be OK after an eight-week rest, but top-weight Fox Journey might well need a run, having not raced since October 2023. That said, he did win here at Newmarket (1m2f) this time last year on his combeack from a 190-day absence, so maybe 205 days won't be an issue.

He's the only previous course winner in the field and like Iron Lion, Composite, Vaynor and True courage, he has already won over today's trip elsewhere...

Instant Expert doesn't give us too much assistance on the win front today, but it does suggest that The Whipmaster might be up against it having failed at class and distance half a dozen times. Vaynor prefers good ground or an artificial surface, whilst Iron Lion and Fox Journey are both a fair bit higher than their last winning marks. The corresponding place stats from those races above show that both The Whipmaster and True Courage usually go pretty well on good to firm ground...

...but the doubts about the former's ability at this trip remain.

Similar past races here at HQ suggest that stalls 2 to 5 might be the place to be, although there's not a great deal in it...

...and I suspect that race tactics/positioning might be more important today, as those races above show a distinct advantage for those willing to take it on...

...and this is reinforced by the pace/draw heat map...

We already know the draw, so let's look at how these runners normally approach their races to see if there's a pattern...

To be honest, it doesn't look like there's much pace in the race at all and this could lead to a falsely-run affair, which would play into the hands of those who come here in the best form and those who would normally struggle if there's early pace. Vaynor has led a couple of times recently and he's probably going to end up doing so again today, but he wouldn't normally feature too high on my list of 'possibles'

Summary

In card order, I'd be quite surprised if the first three home didn't come from Fox Journey, Iron Lion, Composite and True Courage, from which I think I'd side with the returning Fox Journey. I expect a tight battle, though and of the other three runners, I suspect Iron Lion will offer least value.

I'd no odds available at 3.20pm on Thursday, but I'd hope for 3/1 or bigger about Fox Journey, but I doubt I'll get viable E/W odds about any of the other three.

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/05/24

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Limerick
  • 2.20 Perth
  • 3.05 Limerick
  • 3.15 York
  • 3.30 Salisbury
  • 8.00 Clonmel

...but I'm going to leave those alone and have a look at the highest-rated handicap on the Salisbury card, the 2.30 Salisbury. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on soft ground...

Rathgar is the sole LTO winner on display here (Pawapuri did win her last two on the Flat but has been hurdling lately and was 6th LTO), but Circuit Breaker, Torcello, Duke of Verona and Ellerton all finished third on their last starts. Hurtle Wallop is a three-race maiden but all his rivals bar top-weight Alright Sunshine and Ellerton have at least one win in six; the former is winless in nine and had refused to race in his last two, whilst the latter is on a seven-race losing streak.

Only a third of this field (Alright Sunshine, The Goat, Torcello & Duke of Verona) raced at Class 3 last time around, as Circuit Breaker (on yard debut here), Kyle of Lochalsh and Pawapuri (second handicap start today) all drop from Class 2, whilst LTO winner Rathgar joins Ocean Heights, Ellerton (also on hcp debut today) and bottom-weight Military Tycoon is stepping up from Class 4. Handicap debutant and three-race maiden steps up two classes here, which is interesting if nothing else.

Most of these have had a run in the last two months and Ocean heights should be OK after 75 days rest, as should Pawapuri but at 223 days off since last refusing to run, Alright Sunshine is a negative here. He is, however, one of just five runners along with Kyle of Lochalsh, Rathgar, Duke of Verona and Military Tycoon to have won over this trip and the latter is our sole course and distance winner. Torcello has also won here previously, landing a 1m2f maiden on his only previous visit. That was just his third career start, some 52 races ago back in July 2017 and his more recent relevant form looks (courtesy of Instant Expert) like this...

...where on a fairly sparse looking graphic, it appears that he might relish the conditions. There are3 clearly more negatives than positives above and my main worries from this set of data are the win percentage over this trip for Alright Sunshine, the +15lb for Kyle of Lochalsh from his last Flat win, although he is only 6lbs than his A/W win two starts ago and Duke Of Verona could have done better at Class 3. The place stats say that he only made the frame in one of those five defeats too...

...but Circuit Breaker now enters the party, as does Rathgar to a lesser extent.

Unusually for a race beyond a mile and a half, there does appear to be a slight advantage from the draw with those drawn lower appearing to fare best...

...but I'd tread carefully here. The draw really shouldn't be a massive factor here and the sample size is very small, but the numbers are what the numbers are. It's a little difference with pace, as race tactics are important at all distances and that small number of races above have suited front-runners best of all...

...so if we can find a low-ish drawn front-runner, we might well be onto something. We already know the draw, so if I arrange the field in draw order and show you how they've approached their most recent races...

...we should probably focus on The Goat, Circuit Breaker, Torcello and Pawapuri. Ocean heights and Ellerton are probably hoping to set the pace but they're coming from wide and the former is on turf debut and the latter on UK debut.

Summary

It pains me to end up highlighting a favourite, but I think I like the 11/4 Pawapuri here, although not enough to back her. Those odds are a little short for a horse who hasn't raced on the Flat since landing a Class 5 maiden at Yarmouth in September 2022, even if she did win a heavy ground Listed hurdle at Christmas. So whilst I think Pawapuri might be the best horse on paper, I'm inclined to lean towards Circuit Breaker who comes here in decent form, scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and will be up with the pace.

Circuit Breaker was priced up at 5/1 just after 5pm on Wednesday, which I think is very fair and offers more value than Pawapuri. As for the other two who'll be racing in advanced positions, I'm not over keen on The Goat who has been disappointing for a few runs now, but Torcello might well roll the years back and outrun his 12/1 ticket on his ay to a top four finish as my E/W pick. One other of interest who might come from off the pace is LTO winner Rathgar, who is in good nick and drawn well. He has Pawapuri immediately next door and might well get a tow into the race. If that does happen then 8/1 E/W might begin to look generous.

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