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Racing Insights, Thursday 28/12/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.40 Leopardstown
  • 1.05 Catterick
  • 1.50 Leopardstown
  • 3.15 Limerick

Now, I don't really go for Irish races and the Catterick race above is a maiden hurdle, again something I'm not keen on, so I'm going to go a little off-piste and head North-East for the 5.30 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

The Turpinator and Jahidin both won last time out and have both won two of their last five outings, as has Sir Maxi. Al Farabi has a win and two places from his three career starts and now makes a handicap debut off a mark of 82. Gobi Sunset won three races ago and One More Dream scored four back, but Scottish Summit, Illusionist, Swiss Ace and Alexander James are all winless in six although Illusionist has made the frame in three of those six, including over course and distance here last time out off today's mark.

Sir Maxi is noted as a fast finisher, but he's up a class here today, as are Al Farabi and Jahidin, but top weight and veteran Scottish Summit drops down two levels, but is a pound worse off than his recent three length C&D defeat nineteen days ago. That's about how long most of these have rested since their last run with all bar Al Farabi having raced in the last 12-20 days. Mind you, at 34 days off, Al Farabi shouldn't be rusty!

Illusionist is the only one of this bunch yet to win at either track or trip, Al Farabi hasn't won (or even raced!) here at Newcastle and Alexander James has yet to win over 7f. Of the other seven with wins at both 7f and at Newcastle, only Scottish Summit and One More Dream are without a course and distance, as their wins here were over a mile and 6f respectively. Feature of the day Instant Expert is where we'll see all the relevant stats from previous races...

...where Jahidin is the eye-catcher with the sole line of green. The Turpinator and Sir Maxi also have some good numbers to their credit. Gobi Sunset's record at going, class and distance would make him a highly unlikely winner here and although Illusionist's stats aren't good at all, he is a regular placer. I don't see him as a winner here, but his recent efforts on this track keep him in contention for the minor honours.

He's actually drawn in stall 2 with only Scottish Summit keeping him away from the rail and unusually for a straight run on an artificial surface, we do have a bit of a draw bias and it doesn't help Scottish Summit or Illusionist...

Those races above, as with many straight 7f contests, have often been won by horses showing early speed...

...with prominent runners and leaders winning 52.9% of the races from just 44.8% of the runners. This, based on this field's most recent efforts point to good starts for Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator...

Summary

Pace often wins the race over a straight 7f and Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator look like the ones who'll be setting the early tempo. I'm happy to rule Gobi Sunset out of the equation based on form and Instant Expert, where he has been shown to struggle in similar races.

This leaves me with a three-horse shortlist of Al Farabi, Jahidin and The Turpinator and all three could win this. Jahidin was the immediate eye-catcher from Instant Expert, but he's up 2lbs and one class after only winning by a nose last time out.

The Turpinator is only up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success at class, course and distance recently and he was staying on well at the end, so I think he has a marginally better chance than Jahidin.

Al Farabi carries 5lbs more than Jahidin and he was a beaten odds-on favourite last time out a full length behind Guy Fawkes who has since been beaten by over three lengths at odds as short as 1/5. Al Farabi is hardly thrown in at the weights here and although I expect it to be tight between this trio, I think The Turpinator might be the most likely winner.

The early (3.45pm) market was formed by bet365 and they go...

...and with only the bottom four priced beyond 8/1, I'll not be having an E/W play here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/12/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 1.05 Newcastle
  • 2.25 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock

...and with one of the six races above being a stayers' contest on tricky ground, let's head to the 1.30 Haydock, where the in-form Anthony Honeyball sends the 8 yr old Credo to contest a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on heavy ground...

Enqarde and Famous Bridge both won last time out, whilst Burrows Diamond and Credo both had runner-up finishes and Conkwell legend was third. Bill Baxter and Eleanor Bob have both won two of the last four, Famous Bridge is three from four and Credo is two from five and all have won at least one of their last seven.

Famous Bridge actually beat Credo by a length last time out over this course and distance with Eleanor Bob not too far back in fourth...

...and Credo is 3lbs better off with the winner here, so they're very closely matched, whilst Eleanor Bob is even better off today. That win by Famous Bridge here four weeks ago makes him one of two course and distance winners in this field, as Enqarde won this race last year and now runs off a mark 1lb lower than a year ago.

All bar Dr Kananga have raced in the last 14-45 days, but the 9 yr old has been off the track for some 40 weeks and has had a wind op during that time. He is, however, the only other horse in the race with a previous win over this type of trip.

Last year's and LTO winner Enqarde steps up a class here, but Bill Baxter, Burrows Diamond and Conkwell Legend all drop down from Class 1 action. Instant Expert says that the first named of that trio is this race's only previous heavy ground chase winner...

...but that several of them will enjoy the trip. To be fair to the runners here, they've not exactly failed on heavy ground, they've hardly experienced it and most of them have gone well on soft ground...

...whilst the place stats look like this...

...from which I think I'd be focusing upon Famous Bridge and Credo most. The pace data from the field's last few races say that Credo is likely to be held up for a run, whilst Famous Bridge tends to run in mid-division. All indications, however, point to the likes of Eleanor Bob and Dr Kananga setting the early tempo...

Our pace analyser suggests this early pace is the best approach to winning races here, but that a mid-divisional position is great for making the frame...

Summary

Famous Bridge, Credo and Eleanor Bob were first, second and fourth home here at class, course and distance last time out and I think that's where I want to be looking. Despite the pace stats suggesting that Credo might struggle, her yard is in cracking form and with a 3lb pull on the LTO winner, I fancy her to overturn those placings. Eleanor Bob is also better off at the weights here and was running for the first time in 21 months last time out. She gets weight all round here and should come on for having had the run and I suspect/hope we'll have a cracking three-way battle after three energy-sapping miles.

They are, understandably, well-fancied by the 4.30pm market...

...and with neither of them really long enough for an E/W bet, my play here is Credo at 11/2.

That's me done now until after Christmas, so wherever you are and however you spend Christmas, I sincerely hope it's an enjoyable one.
All the best,
Chris

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/12/2023

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.25 Exeter
  • 2.55 Exeter
  • 3.08 Southwell
  • 3.15 Ffos Las

I'm not particularly keen on any of those, so I'll focus on the day's highest rated race, the 4.10 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Clarendon House and Clearpoint both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three and now makes a Southwell debut. Exalted Angel and Alligator Alley were both placed third on their last outings, but the former hasn't won any of his last 22 races! Elsewhere Fine Wine and May Sonic are winless in eight and nine races respectively.

Exalted Angel will hope that a drop in class (3rd of 10 in a Listed race LTO) is halepful towards snapping his cold spell, but Clearpoint and Bedford Flyer both step up in class, despite the latter coming home 7th of 9 last time out. He does now wear a visor for the first time, though.

Fine Wine is coming back from a three-month break here, but the remainder have all been out in the last four to six weeks. Clarendon House and Clearpoint both race at Southwell for the first time, but both have already won at least once over this trip, whilst all five of their rivals are former course and distance winners, as shown below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where Alligator Alley is the immediate eyecatcher. Fine Wine has a good set of numbers, but defeat in a couple of valuable Class 2 races prevents him having a line of green. Clarendon House and Clearpoint are both relatively inexperienced on the A/W, whilst Exalted Angel & May Sonic look a little out of their depth here, a though backed up by the place stats...

...which suggest we should focus on Clarendon House, Fine Wine, Alligator Alley and possibly Clearpoint. This quartet are drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over a straight 5 furlongs, so you wouldn't expect them to have an advantage from being drawn low to middle, other than Alligator Alley possibly having the rail to keep him straight, but let's check the stats from previous past races...

These do suggest there's little in the draw from a win perspective, but there does seem to be a small advantage being drawn low with regards to making the frame, as shown below in the stall-by-stall analysis...

...but I suspect that, as with most straight 5f sprints, pace will win the race and here at Southwell, those races above have mainly been won by those setting the pace, with those chasing often running on for a place...

...and this might be where the previously heralded Alligator Alley might run into trouble...

He'll have the rail, but there's a risk he gets cuts across by those making a quicker start.

Summary

I do like Alligator Alley here, but I'm concerned that his path might be blocked if he doesn't ping the gates and his past form suggests that he won't do that here. He still looks good for a top three finish (a handful of bookies are paying five places), but at a best price of 11/4, I can't be going E/W with him. Clearpoint is also 11/4 and he's 3 from 4 on the A/W including 2 from 2 on tapeta. He made all and ran on well tin by almost two lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton last time out and that performance looks like being the one to beat here, so it would be Clearpoint for me.

All of which leaves me with Fine Wine and Clarendon House and both of these are more than capable of making the frame. The latter could well go on to win and is reasonably well priced at 4/1. As for Fine Wine, he's far from my idea of a winner and would need some luck to make the frame based on the qualities of the other trio I've mentioned, but if one of them falters, 8/1 E/W (3 places) with bet365 might be useful.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Thursday for Friday's racing), as I'm out on a Christmas jolly, but I'll be back with you on Friday for my last pre-Christmas post.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/12/2023

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.10 Lingfield
  • 1.35 Ayr
  • 1.50 Ludlow
  • 2.10 Ayr
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.30 Kempton

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted the following qualifier...

And with TS report qualifier Enemy At The Gate running in one of our featured races, let's head North for the 2.10 Ayr, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5½f on soft ground that is already heavy in places and with more rain expected, it's difficult to expect it to be any quicker come race time. Here's the card...

Mount Melleray returns to action some 24 months after his last start, so he might well need the run here, as all his opponents have raced in the last four weeks with only Ballin Bay emerging as a winner.

He had Enemy At The Gate a length and a half behind him as runner-up that day, whilst Cream of the West and Here Comes McCoy both finished third on their last outings, the latter doing so for the third time in a row but he did win six races ago.

HERE COMES MCCOY has finished third of seven in all three starts over hurdles since unseating his rider on chase debut last New Year's Eve when trying to refuse to jump the first fence. His recent form over these smaller obstacles reads 216333 and he should be in the mix here, but will need to step forward.

MOUNT MELLERAY hasn't been seen since October 2022 and is a 13-race maiden. On the positive side, he has finished in the first three home seven times from his last ten outings and drops a class here. Likely to need a run or two.

CORAL BLUE won three times over hurdles last season, including over 2m4½f here at Ayr on his penultimate run of the campaign. He recently returned from an eight month break at Newcastle, when 9th of 12, beaten by 33 lengths over 2m1f and looking like he needed the run. Should come on for having had the outing, but will need improvement to win here.

NOWINITTOWINIT won back to back hurdles races at Perth in April/May before a six month break. He returned at Musselburgh recently and was beaten by 33 lengths. Now wears a tongue tie for the first time.

BALLIN BAY made steady progress over hurdles (finishing 6643) before getting off the mark at Kelso last time out, beating the re-opposing Enemy At The Gate by a length and a half. That run came after a 229-day absence, so there's every chance he has more to offer.

ENEMY AT THE GATE is a ten-race (2 x NHF, 8 x hrds) maiden, but has ran creditably in defeat of late, finishing 2342 in his last four with runner-up defeats of 0.75 and 1.5 lengths. He was beaten by Ballin Bay last time out, but is now 3lbs better off, so should give another good account of himself here.

CREAM OF THE WEST has yet to make the frame in three starts under Rules, but came closest last time out, when third of six, beaten by less than four lengths on heavy ground at Hexham on his return from a seven-month break. You'd expect him to be able to build upon that, but an opening mark of 97 on handicap debut is hardly lenient.

Instant Expert isn't as useful here as it normally is, but does suggest that but for probably needing the run, this race might have been well suited for Mount Melleray to make the frame...

Here Comes McCoy is sure to like the ground, as should Enemy At the Gate but he has struggled in this grade so far. Coral Blue is our sole track winner and gets this trip readily. Featured runner Enemy At The Gate has fared well in defeat over this distance too.

Looking back over previous similar races here at Ayr, we see that the further forward a horse has raced, the better the chance of making the frame and ultimately going on to win...

...and if we compare that data with our field's running styles in their last three outings (one runner only has three to compare, you see)...

...that would suggest that Cream of the West, Here Comes McCoy and Nowinittowinit might have a job on their hands.

Summary

Ballin Bay beat Enemy At The Gate last time out and even though he's worse off at the weights, I still think he'll maintain the advantage with the benefit of that run under his belt. Mount Melleray scored well on Instant Expert (place) and is likely to be up with the pace, but I just think he'll need the run here.

Coral Blue is a former course and distance winner, but would need to step up to win here and whilst he has every chance of making the frame, I don't think he's as good as Ballin Bay, so almost by default, Ballin Bay is my pick here.

He's currently (4.55pm) priced at 10/3 with bet365, as is Enemy At The Gate and they're probably very closely matched. Coral Blue is interestingly the 8/1 outsider and with bet365 paying three places, he might well be a useful E/W selection.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Queen of Ipanema must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.10 Fakenham
  • 2.40 Fakenham
  • 2.50 Wincanton

I do like to try and marry the daily feature with the free list where possible and today we're able to do so with Pilsdon Pen, who runs in the 2.50 Wincanton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over an extended 2m4f on good to soft ground, that will be soft in places...

Pilsdon Pen won here over course and distance last time out, making him the only one to have won his last outing. Hall Lane was a runner-up, whilst Harjo also made the frame, although he has yet to win any of his six races under Rules. Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen have all won two of their last seven, Hall Lane won five starts ago and Walk In The Wild won seven races back; he now sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Hall Lane and Pilsdon Pen both ran 26 days ago and their rivals have all raced in the last two months. Midnight Midge and Harlem Soul drop down a class here and Walk In the Wild steps up a level. Harjo is the only one of the six yet to win over a similar trip and three of his rivals (Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen) have won over course and distance, which leads us nicely into Instant Expert...

...where Hall Lane and Harjo look inexperienced, Midnight Midge looks like he might struggle, but Harlem Soul, Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild all looking well suited by conditions, especially Harlem Soul. A quick look at the place data from those above races doesn't suggest that Midnight Midge has been unlucky...

...but Hall Lane & Harjo's sole efforts carry promise. Our Pace Analyser suggests that we might want be on a horse keen to get on with things...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...would steer you more towards Walk In The Wild and Harjo as opposed to Harlem Soul and Hall Lane. The ground is soft in places and we should note that only Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild have any soft ground form.

Summary

I don't much like Midnight Midge from Instant Expert and Harlem Soul has been beaten by 68 and 34 lengths in his two starts this term. Hall Lane was second on his chase debut recently despite coming off the back of a 228-day absence and he had Prairie Wolf half a length behind him in third and this horse won a 12-runner, Class 4, 2m4½f handicap chase on good to soft ground at Doncaster last Friday, so that's promising, if he comes on for having had a run and if the form holds out.

Harjo has yet to win under Rules and although third LTO, he was beaten by some fourteen lengths on what was his chasing debut and 14 lengths is a big improvement to find especially as the runner-up that day has been well beaten twice since. Shortlisted horse Pilsdon Pen would be expected to go well again on soft-ish ground, but he's up 6lbs here in a tougher race than last time and can't call upon the services of regular rider Rex Dingle either. Walk In The Wild does have some soft ground form, will be up with the leaders and should be suited by conditions, whereas last time out he was undone by a longer trip on heavy ground.

It's a tricky/competitive race to call here (I wish I'd done the 5.00 Wolverhampton race now!) and none of these tick all the boxes. You could make a case for most if not all of them, but my mind tells me that Walk In The Wild's early (Hills at 3.50pm) 13/2 price offers me a bit more value than the 15/8 about Pilsdon Pen, who's definitely going to be involved.

Tolworth Hurdle Trends

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The Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle used to be staged at Sandown Park racecourse in early January and is often a good guide ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March.

However, the race has been moved to Aintree and is now run as the William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Formerly The Tolworth Hurdle)

In recent years, the contest has been a good race for the favourite with 9 of the last 15 market leaders being placed, with six being successful, while winners often go onto contest a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival – with Noland (2006), the 2018 winner – Summerville Boy and 2022 winner Constitution Hill going onto win the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

While the 2016 winner, Yorkhill, went onto land the Neptune Investment Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival later that season.

The Tizzard yard have won three of the last 7 runnings and Nicky Henderson has five successes since 2011, including with the exciting Constitution Hill in 2022. Paul Nicholls won the race three years in a row between 2006 and 2008, plus last year in 2023 with Tahmuras.

Here at GEEGEEZ we give you all the key stats ahead of the 2023 renewal, this year staged on Tuesday December 26th

Recent Tolworth Hurdle Winners

2023 - TAHMURAS (5/2)
2022 – CONSTITUTION HILL (2/5 fav)
2021 - METIER (7/4 fav)
2020 – FIDDLERONTHEROOF (5/4 fav)
2019 - ELIXIR DU NUTZ (3/1)
2018 - SUMMERVILLE BOY (8/1)
2017 – FINIAN’S OSCAR (11/10 fav)
2016 – YORKHILL (4/9 fav)
2015 – L’AMI SERGE (4/9 fav)
2014 – ROYAL BOY (9/1)
2013 – MELODIC RENDEZVOUS (7/2)
2012 – CAPTAIN CONAN (9/1)
2011 – MINELLA CLASS (6/4 fav)
2010 – No Race
2009 – No Race
2008 – BREEDSBREEZE (6/4 fav)
2007 – SILVERBURN (5/1)
2006 – NOLAND (6/4 fav)
2005 – MARCEL (3/1)
2004 – LINGO (5/4 fav)
2003 – THISTHATANDOTHER (11/4)

Tolworth Hurdle Betting Trends

18/19 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
18/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Priced  5/1 or shorter
17/19 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
16/19 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
16/19 – Came from the top three in the market
15/19 – Won last time out
13/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
10/19– Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
10/19 – Winning Favourites
6/19 – Ran at either Sandown (4) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
4/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
4/19 – Ran at Sandown before
2/19 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
3/19 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Constitution Hill, 2022, Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/19 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 25 of the last 31 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 3/1

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Racing Insights, Monday 18/12/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Plumpton
  • 2.55 Musselburgh
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

...of which, the first is the highest-rated on a day of fairly mediocre standard racing across three fixtures. The race is the 2.10 Plumpton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground...

Bottom-weight Guguss Collonges brings the best recent results to the table as our only LTO winner and has won two of his last three, as also has Tip Top Mountain, but was 7th here over course and distance recently. Sublime Heights is 2 from 5 and Henschke won two races ago, but half of the field are winless in five (or more!) starts.

All of these have had a run in the last six weeks, so all should be race-ready. The top five in the weights are all dropping down from Class 3, whilst the two at the bottom of the card/weights are both up a class here. Movethechains is winless in six, so his yard have decided to apply blinkers for the first time and have installed a 10lb claimer to lighten the load.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Henschke, Special Acceptance & Uallrightharry) have already scored over course and distance, whilst Guguss Collonges has won a 2m4f chase here previously. Milan Bridge (from legendary sire Milan) won a 3m2f hurdle at Hereford back in March 2022, but Movethechains and Almazhar Garde have won at neither track nor trip, although they have both landed events at slightly shorter distances as shown on Instant Expert below...

...where Tip Top Mountain is the immediate eye-catcher and top-weight I See You Well only appears to be let down by his 1 from 10 record on good to soft, which is strange, as he's 5 from 18 on Good and 2 from 8 on Soft, so you'd have expected him to have fared better on good to soft? Sublime Heights has less experience under these conditions, but has fared well enough whilst Movethechains should relish the trip on good to soft ground.

Monday's free feature is access to the pace profile for all races, showing how horses have run in their last few outings and for this race, it looks like this...

...with the in-form Guguss Collonges and Instant Expert eyecatcher Tip Top Mountain showing as confirmed front-runners, whilst I'd expect Special Acceptance to be held up in a race that hasn't been particularly kind to front-runners in the past...

Summary

When assessing recent form allied to the collateral relevant results via Instant Expert and also the pace data above, we're getting a mixed message.

On form, I'd want to be with Guguss Collonges, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and maybe Henschke, whilst Instant Expert suggested Tip Top Mountain, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Movethechains, whilst only Special Acceptance and I See You Well look like being held up.

So, none of them tick all three boxes, but Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and I See You Well feature twice, but to be honest with you, you can make a case for most of the field here, so I won't be having a bet.

If I was, though, I'd probably take Tip Top Mountain to win (5/1 with Hills at 3.45pm) and maybe a small E/W play on Sublime Heights (currently 10's), but aside from Milan Bridge and Uallrightharry (a pair I'm not keen on), any of these could win/place in what looks a competitive affair.

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/12/2023

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 11.55 Hereford
  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Fairyhouse
  • 2.25 Cheltenham
  • 3.22 Hereford
  • 3.35 Cheltenham

All told, between the TJC qualifiers and the 'free' races, I've plenty to go at , but one race features on both lists, so we'll have a look at the 3.35 Cheltenham where in-form friend of Geegeez Anthony Honeyball sends the 7yr old Good Look Charm to tackle a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

The sharper eyed amongst you will also have spotted that Anthony has another runner in this race in the shape of Geegeez syndicate-owned Coquelicot, who will be partnered by Rex Dingle. This horse/jockey combination have six wins and four further places from thirteen races together, so that's another interesting angle to the race, I think.

Martha Divine is the only one of the ten without a win in five races, in fact she has been beaten in her last seven and now comes back off a break of nine months to make a yard debut for Harry Fry. She has had wind surgery during her lay-off and that should help her run better, she also sports a hood for the first time and Harry Fry's a great trainer, but I suspect her best is yet to come in later races!

All her nine rivals have had the benefit of a run in the last three to nine weeks with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm all winning last time out. Windtothelightning has won four of her last five, whilst Bonttay is three from four and has won six times from her nine career starts, finishing as runner-up in the other three!

She is, however, up two classes here (but did win a Class 2 two starts ago) and Windtothelightning also steps up a level. Conversely, top-weight Theatre Glory, LTO Listed class winner Coquelicot and handicap debutant Nurse Susan all drop down from Class 1 action.

Theatre Glory has already won over course and distance here at HQ, landing a Listed Novice Hurdle in April of last year and Bonttay landed a pair (Class 2 & Listed) of back to back 2m½f bumpers here in October/November 2021. Aside from Theatre Glory, though, only Windtothelightning, Coquelicot and Ilovethe nightlife have won over a similar trip to this one, even if Coquelicot did win over 3,1f last time out.

Results under similar conditions can, of course, be found by clicking the Instant Expert tab on the racecard...

...where in-form Bonttay looks the one to best, notwithstanding her lack of experience beyond 2m1f and her stepping bck up in class. Featured runner Good Look Charm will enjoy the soft ground, whilst Windtothelightning's record at the trip is excellent, although she does now run off 12lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby six weeks ago defying a 198-day lay-off. That weight hike aside, there are no real causes for concern raised by Instant Expert, so I'm going to look at the place data to try and 'eliminate some from my enquiries'...

I'm going to be rather picky here and just highlight the ones who have green or no runs at going/class/course/distance, leaving me with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm as my takeaways from Instant Expert, as we now move on to assess race tactics aka pace.

Geegeez followers will know from past reports that Coquelicot likes to do her racing from the front of the pack, but recent efforts by her rivals suggest that she might have some company up top from the likes of Stainsby Girl, Good Look Charm and Theatre Glory...

...with Zestful, Nurse Susan and Bonttay towards the rear, although the latter did win at Exeter four starts ago from a prominent position. That said, Cheltenham is a true test of a horse and the cream invariably rises to the top regardless of pace and whilst front-runners have had the edge on making the frame here in similar past races, the races have been won pretty evenly across all running styles...

...which pretty much takes me back to my Instant Expert quartet.

Summary

I've pretty quickly narrowed the field down to Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm, courtesy of Instant Expert and recent form and of these four, I think Bonttay is the one to beat, but the other three are more than capable on their day and all look to have a great chance of making the frame.

Bonttay is the 3/1 favourite as of 4.10pm with Coquelicot and Windtothelightning both priced at 7/1 with Good Look Charm out at 10's. Skybet are paying four places here, so all of them would be worth considering.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/12/2023

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Doncaster
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.15 Doncaster
  • 8.30 Southwell

...from which I think I'll have a bash at the 1.50 Cheltenham, a 13-runner, Class 3, Mares' Handicap Chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Only Mad About Sally managed to win last time out, but all bar the top four in the weights, La Malmason, Happy D'Ex, Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover have won at least one of their last five and all thirteen have won at least one of their last seven. La Malmason, Walk In Clover, Eureka Creek, Game On For Glory, I Am Gonna Be and Pougne Aminta did all at least have top three finishes in their latest runs.

We have two runners (Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover) dropping a class here with the former running for the first time since wind surgery. Moving the other direction and stepping up in class are Mad About Sally, I Am Gonna Be, Malaita, Brianna Rose, Game On for Glory and Pougne Aminta with the last two named now making just a second handicap outing, as do La Malmason and Happy D'Ex.

Happy D'Ex has been off the track the longest at 187 days, during which time she has moved yards from Gordon Elliot to be with new handler Sheila Lewis, whose last 29 runners have all been beaten with only two even making the frame. The rest of this field have all raced in the last seven weeks.

Walk In Clover is the only course and distance winner in the race, having landed a Grade 2 contest here in April off a mark just 4lbs lower than today, whilst Malaita won a 2m4½f hurdle here on the same day. In fact, only Royale Margeaux, Game On For Glory, Mad About Sally and Brianna rose have yet to score over a similar trip to this one, whilst Instant Expert tells us...

...that this is a fairly inexperienced bunch of chasers, but that Lilith has strung together some decent efforts over fences to date...

She tends to want to be at the head of affairs and has gone well enough to be able to hang on for a place in 9 of 15 starts over fences (inc 3 wins, the latest of which was off today's mark), but she might not have it all her own way as the pace profiles from the field's last four outings...

...suggest that Malaita and Pougne Aminta might want to keep her company upfront and our Pace Analyser says that this would be the ideal approach here...

Summary

There's not much evidence of it above, but I think the main players here are going to be Grade 2 course and distance winner Walk In Clover, LTO winner Mad About Sally, course winner Malaita and the Irish challenger La Malmason who was third last time out to a subsequent Grade 1 runner-up. These look to be the best horses in the race and this is sadly reflected in the 6.30pm market where they are best-priced at 4/1, 7/1, 11/2 and 3/1.

I expect this to be a fairly tight contest, but if pushed for a winner here, I'd take the 4/1 about Walk In Clover with Mad About Sally a real E/W contender.

From the evidence we did have above, Lilith was the standout for me and I think she's better than her current 20/1 price ticket. She's thoroughly consistent and I'm happy to put her last effort down to needing a run and at 20's she could well be a nice E/W play, especially as most firms are paying four places and Sky go to five!

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/12/2023

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.20 Taunton
  • 2.20 Naas
  • 3.40 Warwick
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

To be honest, none of those five make much appeal to me and the day's highest-rated UK race might well be a Listed contest, but small-field Novice chases don't float my boat either. Next best is the day's sole Class 2 race, so we'll head there and take a look at the 8.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Top-weight Tacarib Bay was a winner last time out, as were Fantastic Fox and Desert Order who both seek to complete hat-tricks, but the latter might need the run as he makes just a second handicap appearance more than 14 months after he last raced. Excel Power and Rhythm N Rock are the only ones winless in their last six (7 & 9 respectively, actually) races.

Despite winning a Listed race at Newcastle four weeks ago, top-weight Tacarib Bay actually drops down in class here, but the bottom four on the card/weights, Rhythm N Rock, Batemans Bay, hat-trick seeking Fantastic Fox and Lord Bertie all step up from Class 3 with the latter making a yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam, having left William Haggas during the 12-week break since his last outing.

Aside from the obvious 423 day absence of Desert Order (he has been gelded in that time), only Diderot at 189 days has been away longer than Lord Bertie with the other six runners all having been out at least once in the last four to eight weeks.

Class-dropper Tacarib Bay and the returning Desert Order have both yet to win over a mile unlike their seven rivals, of which three, Diderot, Excel Power and the fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (who doesn't love a bit of alliteration?), are all former course and distance winners.

Despite winning a Listed race recently, Tacarib Bay shows up on Instant Expert with a 0 from 3 record at Class 2...

...but his rivals have hardly been prolific in this grade and I don't think he's going to be outclassed here. Diderot's Class 2 record is even worse, but Helm Rock and Fantastic Fox look well suited albeit from a small sample size of races, whilst Excel Power has more experience and wins to his name.

As Instant Expert is today's guest feature, we'll have a quick glance at the place stats, but they don't really help to separate the runners for us...

Here at Chelmsford over a mile the pace angle has been more of an issue than the draw, but both are important of course. What we have seen in similar past races is that the lower a horse has been drawn the greater its chances of placing and ultimately winning, whilst it's well versed about this track being a bit of a speedway where early pace is amply rewarded. A slight anomaly appears on the pace/draw heat map, though, with the mid-drawn leader faring best of all, one assumes it's to do with not having as sharp a turn to make, somewhat similar to a Formula 1 'racing line' through the apex of the bend...

The only issue we have with this field and the above data, is that there are no real out and out front-running types here, based on their most recent efforts...

...but I suspect that Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie from stalls 1, 3 and 5 will try to lead the way home from an early point, which makes Fantastic Fox's recent course and distance win very interesting, as the race report said..."held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, soon made headway and switched left, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well..." and all that came from stall 10 of 10!

Summary

Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie look like providing the early pace, but the former makes an A/W debut coming off a lengthy absence, the second-named hasn't won for over a year and the latter also makes an A/W debut and had two indifferent runs in September when last seen.

What I think will happen is that they'll drag the wider-drawn horses along and inadvertently set themselves up as targets for the in-form pair of Tacarib Bay and Fantastic Fox. This pair look most likely to succeed in my eyes and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with Frankel's fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (sorry!).  My 1-2 are best priced at 9/2 and 5/1 with the returning Desert Order a short-looking 2/1 or 9/4.

Elsewhere at bigger prices, Lord Bertie might be able to hold on for a place and be a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst feature of the day Instant Expert says that Helm Rock might be better than a 10/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/12/2023

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.45 Hexham
  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Exeter
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers...

Aside from a solitary Listed race at Kempton, the highest rated races in the UK on Wednesday are five Class 3 affairs. Our ten UK races above include four of those five Class 3 races and the most valuable of them is the 2.00 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard going polytrack...

Intervention was a winner here over 7f a week ago and having won at Wolverhampton three weeks earlier, now arrives her seeking a hat-trick of wins as he drops in trip. None of his rivals here even made the frame on their last outings, but Gulliver, Navello, Expert Agent, Count Otto, Buccabay and sole mare Cuban Breeze have all at least won inside their last six.

Five of the field are class movers today, as both Gulliver and Rousing Encore drop down from Class 2 after being well beaten, whilst Buccabay, Count Otto and Expert Agent all step up from Class 4, despite failing to shine last time out. The latter, Expert Agent, makes a yard debut for Stuart Williams, having left Kevin Foy during the eight weeks since his last run. Bosh is noted on the card as a fast finisher, but having lost his last eight races, he might be better off setting for home sooner!

Rocking Ends has been off the track for over five months and might well need the run, whilst most of the field have raced in the last month or so with Count Otto, Expert Agent, Rousing Encore and Bosh coming back after 6 to 10 weeks off.

Way To Dubai and Navello are the only ones yet to win at this trip, whilst Expert Agent and Count Otto are both course and distance winners. Rocking Ends (5f), Gulliver (7f) and Intervention (7f) have also tasted victory here at Lingfield, as shown by Instant Expert...

...which suggests Gulliver, Expert Agent, Count Otto and Intervention might be some of the main contenders to win here and the latter has made the frame in similar conditions on many occasions...

...as has Count Otto without being quite a prolific from a strike rate perspective.

Of the four who caught the eye from the win graphic, we have runners in stalls 1, 2, 7 and 12 of 12, so the pace/draw stats could make interesting reading, starting as usual with the details from our draw analyser...

...where over the last 150 or so similar contests, the best draw has been the low to mid-range with stalls 1 to 5 performing best according to the PRB3 graph...

...although stalls 6 & 7 still have a rating of 0.500 or higher. This would suggest that Gulliver and Intervention would have a slight advantage over Count Otto with Expert Agent the least well drawn, but not out of it by any means, as over 6f here at Lingfield much will depend on the approach taken to the race and our pace analyser says...

...that the further forward a horse has raced in those 150+ contests above, the greater the chance of a win/place. If we then look at the field's most recent efforts...

...I'd expect Buccabay and Rocking Ends to be up with the early pace with both Intervention and Cuban Breeze for company. Expert Agent ran prominently last time out, as he did when landing back to back course and distance wins in the spring, so I'd expect him to be further forward here too. Gulliver looks like having to pass the entire field to win here and I'm not sure he's that good. I know he won four races ago, but that win came after 28 successive defeats over a 35 month period, so he's hardly reliable.

Summary

Intervention is the one for me (and probably many others) here and whilst he's at the top of the market, I think his current (5.55pm) 9/2 odds are more than fair and I'd expect him to land the hat-trick here. Expert Agent (5/1)and Buccabay (13/2) might well be the ones to chase him home, but if I was to have a longer priced E/W pick, it would probably be the 10/1 Cuban Breeze, especially with firms paying four places. She's running pretty well right now on polytrack (213 in her last three), gets weight all round and if starting well, could surprise a few from a wider draw.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a whole swathe of qualifiers. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.00 Punchestown
  • 2.52 Ffos Las
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.45 Wincanton
  • 7.00 Southwell

Two of our 'free' races feature runners from The Shortlist and the highest rated of the two is the 7.00 Southwell featuring Roarin' Success and Wild Side from above. They'll take on another half a dozen rivals in a Class 3, 3yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

Our two featured runners actually raced against each other last time out at Kempton four weeks ago and here's how that one panned out...

...and with both running off the same marks here, I'd expect them to be closely matched again in a race that looks really competitive. As you can see, neither of them actually won that day, although Roarin' Success made the frame, but Achillea did win last time out and Enola Grey was a runner-up, although she now hasn't won in eleven outings, whilst Lady Mojito has lost eight on the bounce; she'll be visored for the first time here in a bid to improve her form.

None of this field actually raced at Class 3 last time out, as Wild Side, Roarin' Success, Achillea and Finery step up from Class 4 and the bottom three on the card (Hey Lyla, Lady Mojito & Enola Grey) all raced at Class 5. Yorkshire Lady's Class 2 run a month ago makes her the only class dropper here.

All bar Finery (101 days off) have had at least one outing in the last five weeks and Lady Mojito is the only runner here yet to win at this trip, whilst Finery is our sole course and distance winner.

With regards to Lady Mojito, she's bang out of form, hasn't won at the trip and is up two classes and that's enough for me to dismiss her chances here, even before we look at Instant Expert...

Now, I'm a big fan of Instant Expert, but sometimes it doesn't offer as much help as I'd like and today it just reiterates how competitive this contest could. There's no standout candidate purely on those numbers above, nor do any put themselves up for the chop. Finery seems far more experienced and has a good set of numbers to her name.

She's also our sole course and distance winner, having scored here eleven months ago from the widest draw of seven runners and she now finds herself in stall 7 of 8, which hasn't always suited runners here. In similar past contests, a draw in the middle of the stalls has been more conducive to winning here, whilst those drawn lowest make the frame most often...

...whilst our pace data from those races above says that runners racing prominently or leading are more likely to be taking some prize money home...

...and if we combined pace and draw...

...a relatively clear picture begins to form. If we then overlay this field's draw and their pace stats from their last four outings, we get an idea of how the race might pan out...

Summary

Instant Expert didn't exactly help too much today, but the pace/draw heat map suggests we should look at those drawn highest here, even if that hasn't always been successful at Southwell. Both our Shortlist runners, Wild Side & Roarin' Success are involved and although the latter looks slightly worse off than the former, she did come out best last time and off the same marks, I suspect that Roarin' Success might just hold Wild Side off, although it'll be tight again.

I actually think these will be the first two home with Finery getting towed along by them. She loves it here at Southwell and has a good record at the trip and with Hills opening up at 9/1 about her, she might be a nice E/W option. As for the two main protagonists, Roarin' Success & Wild Side, they're 3/1 and 4/1 , first and third favourites respectively.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 08/12/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce five qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 2.15 Sedgefield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And from all of which, I'd say the best of the above races (on paper at any rate) for me to look at was the 3.00 Sandown, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three miles on soft ground...

Huelgoat, Not Sure and Robyndzone all won last time out, whilst My Silver Lining and Animal were both runners- up. Only Planned Paradise is winless in six or more (nine to be precise!). Kapcorse has been off the track for 225 days now and might well need the run, although he does drop in class here. All his rivals have, however, had at least one run in the last month.

Via Dolorosa makes a yard debut for Sophie Leech and is up a class, as are Not Sure, Robyndzone and Animal, whilst top-weight Collectors Item wears cheekpieces for the first time. None of the field have won here at Sandown before, mind you just four have been here for a collective total of five runs with just one placed finish (Planned Paradise). As for the trip, that's a different story, as all bar Jet Plane, Huelgoat, Kapcorse and Planned Paradise have scored over s similar trip, and those who have won over fences at this distance are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where bottom-weight Planned Paradise looks arguably least suited to the task and Via Dolorosa might well be out of his depth at Class 3 from a win perspective, but he has made the frame in four of seven at this level...

...where Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone makes most appeal to me.

The pace stats from previous similar races look like this...

...an whilst there's not a great deal of data to work with, I think it's fair to suggest you want to be on a progressive type rather than one who is waited with. Based on their most recent outings...

...that would seem to steer us towards Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining.

Summary

Huelgoat, Not Sure, Robyndzone, My Silver Lining and Animal bring the best recent form to the table.
Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone mades most appeal to me from Instant Expert.
Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining were the takeaways from the pace stats.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining feature in all three lists and I fancy them to both make the frame here and possibly be the first two home. Of the others, Robyndzone also features three times, whilst Not Sure and Midnight Mary both feature twice.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining are currently (8.50pm UK time, 4.50pm here) both priced at 5/1. Not Sure is also 5/1 and that's too short for an E/W play for me, as is the 15/2 about Midnight Mary; she's a consistent placer, but I think the assessor has her held right now and I'd be wanting double digit odds about her.

I can, however, get 10's about Robyndzone, so he might not be a bad E/W bet after all.

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/12/23

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Apologies for the on-off nature of this column over the least week or so, I'm currently cruising the Caribbean (part of my travel agent job!) and on some days the wifi/internet is good and on some days it isn't. Normal service will be resumed next Tuesday, but until then, I'll post every day that I'm able to, so let's crack on!

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 11.12 Southwell
  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 2.05 Wincanton
  • 2.57 Clonmel
  • 3.07 Southwell
  • 3.15 Wincanton

...and I think I'll look at the last of that list, the 3.15 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m1f on soft ground that is already heavy in places...

Take Your Time and Not Sure both won last time out and the latter has three wins and two places from his last five outings, whilst Eceparti comes here on a hat-trick after recent back to back wins at Chepstow. The rest of the field bar Striking A Pose and Edeiffs Elton have all won at least once in their last six efforts, but this pair are winless in twelve and eight respectively.

Both 'cold' horses do at least drop down a class here, as does Harlem Soul and Striking A Pose will hopefully benefit from a recent wind op. I say recent, because he only raced seven weeks ago, as did Harlem Soul. Nearly Perfect has been off the track for six months, but he's the only one who hasn't raced in the last seven weeks.

Nearly Perfect is, however, just one of two former course and distance winners in the field with Edeiffs Elton being the other, although Striking A Pose has won a 2m5½f hurdle here before and Harlem Soul has landed a pair of 2m4f chases and a 1m7½f hurdle on this track. Elsewhere, the top three in the weights, Take Your Time, Raddon Top & Not Sure have all won at similar trips to this one.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert, of course and it looks like this today...

...with Striking A Pose looking most vulnerable. Take Your Time and Raddon Top are both heavy ground winners, so they'll not be too concerned if the rain continues to fall, whilst most of the field have won at this grade. Nearly Perfect is an interesting one on paper with a full line of green and running off a mark 12lbs lower than his last win.

The caveats here are that he hasn't raced for six months and has only ran five times since winning over course and distance here on Boxing Day 2020. He did, however, finish 1311 in his four starts that year, staring and ending the year with CD wins here on soft ground, including one at Class 3.

So, if he's tuned up and ready to go, he might be able to surprise a few of his rivals here and the odds are that he's likely to want to get on with things, if the evidence of his last few races are anything to go by...

He looks like he'll have company, though, in the shape of top weight LTO winner Take Your Time and the fellow CD winner Edeiffs Elton. Our Pace Analyser suggests that this is a successful tactic to adopt, based on past similar contests...

Eceparti has also raced keenly in his last two races, so there's a good chance he'll want to join in upfront and we could have some decent early pace for soft/heavy ground stayers' chase, which might well burn a few out before the finish.

Summary

The one I think I like the most is top weight Take Your Time. He's in good nick, scored well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race. He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills (the only book open right now) and I think that's fair.

He might well have been shorter but for Eceparti being installed as the early 11/8 fav. He's  running really well, of course, having won his last two, but he looks short in the market for me, especially as he hasn't the best record of this field on going/trip. He might well win, but 11/8 makes no appeal to me.

I don't think there's a proper E/W bet for me here, but if he's ready for it, Nearly Perfect might run better than his early 12/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/12/23

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Smith and Gincident would be of the most obvious immediate interest to me. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.30 Lingfield
  • 1.50 Southwell
  • 3.35 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

I'll swerve Southwell for fear of a second successive abandonment for us and I'll head for the race starring Gincident, which is the highest rated of the races above. It is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

...and our ever informative cards show...

FORM : No LTO winners, but Woodstock City, Talis Evolvere and Urban Sprawl were placed, but the latter is winless in his recent form-line, as is Young Fire. Woodstock City, Queen of Ipanema, Gincident and Visibility have all won two from their last six.

CLASS : Talis Evolvere, Chantico and Young Fire all step up a class, whilst bottom-weight and fast-finishing Visibility is up two classes.

WHAT'S NEW? : Sceptic and Chantico both make debuts for their new yards and the former runs for the first time since wind surgery and the latter is denoted as a fast finisher. Woodstock City runs in handicap company for the first time and also makes a UK debut after 2 wins and 4 third places from ten runs in France.

LAST SEEN? : Most of these have had a run in the last four weeks, but Scepic has been off for eleven weeks and Woodstock City for three months. However, that's nothing compared to the layoffs of Chantico (227d) and Queen of Ipanema (242d) and this pair might well be feeling it in the closing stages if they go off quickly.

COURSE/DISTANCE WINS : Queen of Ipanema has won here over 1m1½f and 1m4f, but Gincident, Young Fire and Visibility are all former course and distance winners and all these course wins are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where, as you'd expect from The Shortlist, Gincident looks very well suited to the task in hand as do to a lesser extent, Sceptic and Queen of Ipanema. Young Fire looks like a blowout after plenty of attempts to get it right here, but Visibility looks interesting if not earth-shattering.

The corresponding place data from those races above looks like this...

...with only Young Fire and Visibility looking suspect. Young Fire does, of course, occupy stall 1, so let's check our Draw Analyser to see if that's usually a help or a hindrance...

Well, it appears that there's a very slight advantage to having a higher draw, but those drawn lowest make the frame more often, but again the advantage is very slight, so I'm going to say that none of these should lose this race purely because if which stall they emerge from.

The likelihood is that much will depend on how they emerge from those stalls and how they proceed to make their way home and our Pace Analyser suggests that you want to be on a prominent/leading runner...

...and the lack of obvious pace in this pack (based on their recent outings) might give an easy opening to Urban Sprawl...

He's not a front-runner by any means, of course, but regularly races prominently and regularly makes the frame by doing so.

Summary

Whilst winless in twelve (seven on the Flat followed by five on the A/W), Urban Sprawl's last five results (all on A/W) read 33243 and was a good third on his Wolverhampton debut last time out. He drops back a furlong here and I fancy him to make the frame again here.

That said, he's probably not the winner (he tends not to be) and that's more likely to be Talis Evolvere who ran weel to finish second over 7f here last time out, having led early on, but was outpaced in the later sprint for the line. The extra yardage should help here.

Unsurprisingly, these two head the market, but they're probably the best two in the race. My longshot who might outrun his odds is Young Fire, who looks better than an 18/1 shot and if a few falter, he could make the frame here.

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