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Racing Insight, Friday 05/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers...

...and I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.02 Southwell
  • 1.12 Southwell
  • 1.55 Musselburgh
  • 3.55 Ludlow

...and the highest-rated of those six races above is the 1.12 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

Only Haku won last time out, although Heathen was a runner-up having won two starts ago, as did Chase The Dollar. Nolton Cross & Rhythmic Intent are other LTO runners-up and Ensured finished third on his last run, albeit some 937 days ago in mid-June 2021! Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Buxted Too and Achnamara all coming here on losing runs of seven or more races (9, 14, 8 & 10 to be exact!). Haku's LTO win was by a head over the re-opposing Nolton Cross and the runner-up is now 1lb better off.

We know Ensured has been off track for nearly 31 months, but the remainder have all raced fairly recently. Valsad has had 80 days rest and Night Bear returns from a 53-day break, but the others have all raced in the last four weeks.

Rhythmic Intent is noted as a fast finisher and he, Ensured (now making a second handicap appearance) and Achnamara are the only runners not moving class today, as Midnight Lion last raced in a Listed hurdle and both Heathen & Valsad (yard debut for Jamie Osborne today) are dropping down from Class 2.

We then have five runners; Nolton Cross, Haku (in first-time cheekpieces), Buxted Too, Chase The Dollar and Night Bear all stepping up a level from Class 4.

As for previous successes, Ensured, Midnight Lion and Chase The Dollar have yet to win over this trip, but the latter has won here over 1m6f, whilst the other four previous course winners; Valsad, Nolton Cross, Heathen and Night Bear have all won over course and distance, as seen below in Instant Expert...

...where despite being winless in nine starts, Nolton Cross is the immediate eyecatcher and he comes here off the back of a narrow defeat. Most of the top six in the weights are proven at this going, course and trip and I suspect the winner and placers are amongst that half dozen. Five of the six are drawn in stalls 1-7 with only Nolton Cross detached from the group out in 11 of 11, but that shouldn't be an issue as there's no real discernible draw bias here...

...not that I expect one over a mile and a half. There are plenty of reasons not to win but the draw over such a trip shouldn't be one of them and nor should race tactics, according to our pace analyser...

Yes, front runners have been a bit of a target, but they're probably only one winner shy of parity with the other three running styles. On our course profile, jockey David Probert says that this is a fair track, suggesting that the better horses win more often irrespective of pace and/or draw.

Summary

If pace and draw aren't as important here as they normally are, then it's a case of finding those in form and best suited to the task. Instant Expert has led me to believe the top six in the weights is where I should focus, but Buxted Too hasn't run well for 18 months now and Valsad looks too high in the weights at just one pound lower than his last two results of 7th of 12 and last of seven. I'll discount this pair now, leaving me with just four to consider ie Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Haku and Heathen.

Of this four, there's probably not much between them. Haku narrowly beat Nolton Cross last time out, but I fancy those placings to be reversed with the latter now better off at the weights. Heathen has been running really well of late, so I suppose it's Rhythmic Intent who misses out. He did run well but that's the nearest he has got to winning in the last 27 months and whilst he could go well here again, he's the odd one out for me.

Of my final trio, there's not a great deal to choose between them, but if pushed the 11/2 offered about Nolton Cross at 5.20pm makes most sense.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/01/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 11.45 Lingfield
  • 12.58 Hereford
  • 2.28 Hereford
  • 6.10 Newcastle

It's a shockingly bad day of racing on Thursday and I'm struggling to be enthused about it if truth be told, but the show must go on! The highest-rated races are flour Class 4 affairs, three of which are maidens, so we'll tackle the one that isn't! That's the 2.58 Hereford, a 9-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on soft ground that might be a little better in places...

Not much in the way of recent winning form from this group, but the 11yr old veteran Len Brennan won five races ago, Langley Hundred won seven races ago and Honey I'm Good won six and seven races back, plus this sole mare in the race has won three of her four starts over fences.

Hardy Boy is winless in eight, but has been been a runner-up beaten by just a neck in each of his last two, whilst Invincible Nao, Inflexible and Len Brennan all finished third last time out, although the latter hasn't raced for 15 months since that last run and closer inspection shows he was third of just three, beaten by 27 lengths and he was last of five in his penultimate race, beaten by 55 lengths.

Those last two efforts, the lay-of and his age are more than enough to put me off Len Brennan, even if he is making a yard debut for Anthony Charlton and is one of just two winners over a similar trip to this one. Honey I'm Good is the other previous distance winner and she steps up a class here, as do the bottom three in the weights, Shot Boii, Paseo and Royal Act.

We know that Len Brennan has been off the track since early October 2022 and has only raced twice in the last 21 months, but all of his rivals have had an outing in the last five weeks with Paseo turned back out just five days after a 43 length defeat at Taunton, when only 6th of 9. I'm not sure a step up in class is the right move here less than a week later.

Feature of the day is, of course, Instant Expert and it shows how the field have performed in previous races under similar conditions...

...and that's a pretty bleak picture with the exception, of course, of the mare Honey I'm Good. I think we're going to need some place data to help us out here!

That's a little more useful with Hardy Boy, Langley Hundred and Inflexible at least adding some green to the reds! Royal Act looks out of his depth and I think he now joins Len Brennan and Paseo on the sidelines, leaving me with six to consider for a race that appears to reward front-runners and those who race fairly prominently...

Unfortunately, we don't have many who like to set the pace here, aside from Royal Act, if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...although Honey I'm Good and Shot Boii both have two 3+ scores in their last four outings and Hardy Boy was an unlucky pacemaker last time out.

Summary

None of these really make a forceful case to be backed as a winner, but Hardy Boy is the most consistent of them all and having been beaten by just a neck in each of his last two starts, he's certainly knocking on the door and would be my tentative pick at 9/2 (Hills & Bet365 @ 4.40pm).

Elsewhere, I'd probably look for some E/W value and if Honey I'm Good (the Instant Expert eyecatcher) puts her modest hurdles form behind her now she's back over fences (3 wins from 4 in this sphere), she could be dangerous at 9/1, whilst Shot Boii would also be of interest at 7's, but I'd probably want/need him to drift a little to become an E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/01/24

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Happy Belated New Year everyone, I hope you all had a very merry Christmas and a good New Year's Eve/Day, I know I did!

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...and have sadly highlighted no qualifiers. Thankfully, in addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.20 Ffos Las
  • 1.50 Ffos Las
  • 7.00 Kempton

Ffos Las has unfortunately been abandoned, as has the card at Huntingdon, leaving Kempton as the sole meeting. Our 'free' race on that card is actually the joint highest rated and joint highest prize on the card, so we'll stick with the 7.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

It's an inexperienced field with just 41 races between them. The most experienced (Bulldog Drummond) has raced 10 times to date, but all have at least three outings under their belts. My initial thoughts were that this might be a two-horse race between Engineer and the afore-mentioned Bulldog Drummond but let's see what the card tells us...

Bulldog Drummond was the only one to win last time out and only Engineer and Ippotheos have won a race prior to this one. Engineer has mad the frame in all three outings, Gaiden has been a back to back runner-up and both Flag Carrier and Persian Blue were in the frame on their last outings.

All bar Gaiden, the fast-finishing () Ippotheos and Flag Carrier are stepping up from Class 5 and it will be handicap debut day for Engineer, Cast No Shadow and Persian Blue, whilst Ippotheos and Flag Carrier both run in handicap company for just the second time. Persian Blue wears a tongue tie for the first and she is the quickest turned back out, just seven days after finishing third at Wolverhampton. Engineer has been off track the longest, but seven weeks is hardly a long break from action and the other eight have all been seen in the last 13-26 days.

Only three of the field have raced here before, making the frame four times from five combined runs but no wins. Our three previous winners, Engineer, Ippotheos & Bulldog Drummond have all won at this trip, though...

With so little winning form from this bunch, I've also included the place stats and they do suggest that the upper half/five on the card would be the place to focus with Engineer the standout. Ippotheos might find this tough at 11lbs higher than his sole win, but he does have a 7lb claimer on board to help in that respect. Bulldog Drummond and Flag Carrier both have much better place stats than their win records on the A/W.

The draw stats from previous similar contests show that the lower a horse has been drawn here, the greater the chances of making the frame and ultimately winning...

...which is another boost to the claims of Engineer, but not great for Flag Carrier.

Those 70 or so races above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those who race prominently or lead and based on this field's last three runs (some only have three!)...

...that's another tick in the box for Engineer. There's also some encouragement for Flag Carrier from his wide draw, whilst it may well be Cast No Shadow who sets the early pace. He has failed to hold on in his last two, both over 5f, so I suspect the extra furlong here makes life even tougher.

Summary

When I first looked at the card, I thought it might be a two-horse race between Engineer and Bulldog Drummond, but I'm much keener on the former now I've had a closer look and  the 7/2 (Hills at 3.40pm) Engineer is the one for me. Bulldog will run his race and make a late dash for the line, as will the fast-finishing Ippotheos, but they might encounter traffic. That said, neither are backable IMO as E/W options at their current odds of 4/1 & 6/1 respectively.

If Ippotheos drifted from 6's and/or Flag Carrier was longer than the current 13/2, then they might be the ones for E/W consideration, but for now, I'll just stick with Engineer.

Racing Insights, Saturday 30/12/23

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My last column of the year focuses on Saturday's racing, where our free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have sadly generated no qualifiers for me to consider, but I can at least call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.15 Haydock
  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 3.10 Haydock
  • 4.45 Wolverhampton

...a list that contains a couple of Class 3 handicaps, the most valuable of which is the 2.25 Newbury, a 12-runner, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground that will be softer in places...

Only Surrey Quest managed to win last time out, but Certainly Red, Bowtogreatness, Fantastikas, Atlanta Brave and Striking A Pose all had top three finishes, although it has been 259 days since Bowtogreatness was last seen with all his rivals having had at least one run in the last two months.

He does however drop down two classes to run here, as does Bangers and Cash with the other two of the top four in the weights, Certainly Red and Docpickedme dropping down one class. Conversely, Surrey Quest and bottom-weight Striking A Pose are both up a level here.

Bangers and Cash will be wearing cheekpieces for the first time today, whilst this will be Surrey Quest's first outing since having had wind surgery during a two month break following his LTO win at Huntingdon.

Notachance's Class 4, 3m½f handicap hurdle success back in March 2019 is the only previous Newbury win from this dozen runners, but Certainly Red, Docpickedme, Laskalin and Shanty Alley have all won at least once over a similar trip to this one. The field lacks success under similar conditions to those expected here, but Instant Expert does highlight a couple of runners who might be well suited...

...with Certainly Red and Bangers And Cash the immediate eyecatchers there. Causes for concern above include Shanty Alley, Yes Indeed and Striking A Pose at Class 3 and Fantastikas over this trip. The rest of the field seem pretty unexposed under these parameters, but many of them are regular placers...

Fairly strangely for a stayers' chase on soft-ish ground, past similar races here at Newbury have tended to suit front-runners those chasing the leader(s) with those racing further back having less success...

...which based on this field's most recent outings would appear to benefit Bangers And Cash, Docpickedme and Shanty Alley...

...plus to a slightly lesser extent Laskalin (although if he leads?), Surrey Quest and Notachance.

Summary

Bangers And Cash caught the eye on Instant Expert, despite never having raced here at Newbury. He also has no run at 3m2f, but has won at 3m, 3m3½f and even 3m5f, so he has stamina to boot. He will also be expected to be up with the pace and would normally be under serious consideration here as a bet, but after winning three of his last four last season, he has run poorly twice at Cheltenham this term and will need to improve massively to get involved.

I'd be backing him here if he'd had a decent run under his belt this season, but whilst I think he's much better than his current 16/1 odds, he's not my idea of a winner here. That said, he is more than capable of making the frame and with firms paying four places, he might be of interest.

Whilst we're looking at E/W possibles, Shanty Alley might be the answer at 10/1. He's a regular placer on Instant Expert and has a decent pace profile for this race. He was the runner-up in this contest last year and is 5lbs better off this time and probably needed the run last time out after nearly seven months off.

If pushed for a winner, I'd struggle here; there are no standouts for me, but I do like the look of the two at the top of the weights, who both drop in class. Both Certainly Red and Bowtogreatness have chances here and with the former currently trading at 11/1, that could also be an E/W route.

The one I have largely ignored is the favourite Atlanta Brave who is still relatively unexposed and gets weight from most of his rivals, but 4/1 looks mightily short to me about a horse whose best form is at Class 4, has never gone beyond 3m and hasn't won beyond 2m6f, but who knows?

Happy New Year, everyone; I'll see you on the other side of Hogmanay in '24.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 29/12/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 3.10 Limerick
  • 3.25 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Southwell

That sole UK race above isn't a terrible one, but I think I'll take a look at the day's highest-rated UK race instead. That's the 1.40 Doncaster and it's an 8-runner Listed chase contest for Mares aged 4 and over. There's 16 fences to be jumped over a left-handed 2m4½f on good to soft ground and here's how they'll line up...

Zambella has won this race in each of the last two years and arrives here on the back of a win last time out, as does Pink Legend. Likely favourite Limerick Lace was a Grade 3 runner-up last month and has 3 wins from her last 6 outings, as do Zambella and La Renommee whilst Pink Legend is four from six! Royale Margaux is the only one without a win in six, and as a maiden beaten at Class 3 last time out, she looks set to struggle here.

She's up two classes today and looks the weakest in this field; Walk In Clover (who ran in a race we covered a fortnight ago) is also up two classes after failing to make the frame and is also probably one to discount early. Top-weight Fantastic Lady also steps up in class despite labouring somewhat at Aintree in a Class 2 handicap.

She is however (as you'll see below shortly) just one of two previous course winners having landed a Class 4 Novice Hurdle over 2m3½f way back in March 2021. Our other course winner is Zambella, of course, who has won this race in each of the last two years. The trip, however, is a familiar one to this field, as all bar Carole's Pass and Royale Margaux have already won at simlar distances, as shown here on Instant Expert, where no horse ticks all the boxes...

Zambella is the standout for me here, despite only making the frame twice in six efforts without winning on good to soft ground. If truth be told, she'd like it softer than it currently is, but she knows the lie of the land here. Pink Legend is a winner of five Class 1 chases and that's not to be sniffed at. Her record on good to soft is decent enough, but she's also 4 from 6 on good ground, so her chances might improve in this drier weather, especially if the winds help to dry out the track.

Zambella's approach to winning this race the last two years has been to ping the tapes and make all and this would certainly seem to be generally right the approach over this course and distance on good to soft ground...

...with those racing in mid-division or further back struggling to land a blow. 60% of leaders manage to hold on for a place with 40% of those placers going on to win, which is another vote of confidence for Pink Legend as well as Zambella...

...as they look the likely pace makers here.

Summary

Zambella won a Listed event at Aintree by seventeen lengths last time out but would prefer it softer here. That said, she's well versed at track and trip and scores really well on Instant Expert. She'll be up with the pace and she'd be the one for me here.

Pink Legend also scored well on Instant Expert and has won five Class 1 chases including last time out and two of her last three. She's also got a good pace profile for this race and is a very likely placer here today. Limerick Lace will be well fancied by the market, but has come up short on her last few Class 1 outings and would also prefer softer ground.

I think she's the best of the rest and may well in time emerge as the best in this race, but I prefer Zambella today.

Sadly, the early (3.30pm) market also likes the three I've highlighted...

...but it's Zambella for me and no E/W pick unless Pink Legend drifts somewhat!

Racing Insights, Thursday 28/12/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.40 Leopardstown
  • 1.05 Catterick
  • 1.50 Leopardstown
  • 3.15 Limerick

Now, I don't really go for Irish races and the Catterick race above is a maiden hurdle, again something I'm not keen on, so I'm going to go a little off-piste and head North-East for the 5.30 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard tapeta...

The Turpinator and Jahidin both won last time out and have both won two of their last five outings, as has Sir Maxi. Al Farabi has a win and two places from his three career starts and now makes a handicap debut off a mark of 82. Gobi Sunset won three races ago and One More Dream scored four back, but Scottish Summit, Illusionist, Swiss Ace and Alexander James are all winless in six although Illusionist has made the frame in three of those six, including over course and distance here last time out off today's mark.

Sir Maxi is noted as a fast finisher, but he's up a class here today, as are Al Farabi and Jahidin, but top weight and veteran Scottish Summit drops down two levels, but is a pound worse off than his recent three length C&D defeat nineteen days ago. That's about how long most of these have rested since their last run with all bar Al Farabi having raced in the last 12-20 days. Mind you, at 34 days off, Al Farabi shouldn't be rusty!

Illusionist is the only one of this bunch yet to win at either track or trip, Al Farabi hasn't won (or even raced!) here at Newcastle and Alexander James has yet to win over 7f. Of the other seven with wins at both 7f and at Newcastle, only Scottish Summit and One More Dream are without a course and distance, as their wins here were over a mile and 6f respectively. Feature of the day Instant Expert is where we'll see all the relevant stats from previous races...

...where Jahidin is the eye-catcher with the sole line of green. The Turpinator and Sir Maxi also have some good numbers to their credit. Gobi Sunset's record at going, class and distance would make him a highly unlikely winner here and although Illusionist's stats aren't good at all, he is a regular placer. I don't see him as a winner here, but his recent efforts on this track keep him in contention for the minor honours.

He's actually drawn in stall 2 with only Scottish Summit keeping him away from the rail and unusually for a straight run on an artificial surface, we do have a bit of a draw bias and it doesn't help Scottish Summit or Illusionist...

Those races above, as with many straight 7f contests, have often been won by horses showing early speed...

...with prominent runners and leaders winning 52.9% of the races from just 44.8% of the runners. This, based on this field's most recent efforts point to good starts for Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator...

Summary

Pace often wins the race over a straight 7f and Al Farabi, Jahidin, Gobi Sunset and The Turpinator look like the ones who'll be setting the early tempo. I'm happy to rule Gobi Sunset out of the equation based on form and Instant Expert, where he has been shown to struggle in similar races.

This leaves me with a three-horse shortlist of Al Farabi, Jahidin and The Turpinator and all three could win this. Jahidin was the immediate eye-catcher from Instant Expert, but he's up 2lbs and one class after only winning by a nose last time out.

The Turpinator is only up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success at class, course and distance recently and he was staying on well at the end, so I think he has a marginally better chance than Jahidin.

Al Farabi carries 5lbs more than Jahidin and he was a beaten odds-on favourite last time out a full length behind Guy Fawkes who has since been beaten by over three lengths at odds as short as 1/5. Al Farabi is hardly thrown in at the weights here and although I expect it to be tight between this trio, I think The Turpinator might be the most likely winner.

The early (3.45pm) market was formed by bet365 and they go...

...and with only the bottom four priced beyond 8/1, I'll not be having an E/W play here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/12/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 1.05 Newcastle
  • 2.25 Ascot
  • 2.40 Haydock

...and with one of the six races above being a stayers' contest on tricky ground, let's head to the 1.30 Haydock, where the in-form Anthony Honeyball sends the 8 yr old Credo to contest a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on heavy ground...

Enqarde and Famous Bridge both won last time out, whilst Burrows Diamond and Credo both had runner-up finishes and Conkwell legend was third. Bill Baxter and Eleanor Bob have both won two of the last four, Famous Bridge is three from four and Credo is two from five and all have won at least one of their last seven.

Famous Bridge actually beat Credo by a length last time out over this course and distance with Eleanor Bob not too far back in fourth...

...and Credo is 3lbs better off with the winner here, so they're very closely matched, whilst Eleanor Bob is even better off today. That win by Famous Bridge here four weeks ago makes him one of two course and distance winners in this field, as Enqarde won this race last year and now runs off a mark 1lb lower than a year ago.

All bar Dr Kananga have raced in the last 14-45 days, but the 9 yr old has been off the track for some 40 weeks and has had a wind op during that time. He is, however, the only other horse in the race with a previous win over this type of trip.

Last year's and LTO winner Enqarde steps up a class here, but Bill Baxter, Burrows Diamond and Conkwell Legend all drop down from Class 1 action. Instant Expert says that the first named of that trio is this race's only previous heavy ground chase winner...

...but that several of them will enjoy the trip. To be fair to the runners here, they've not exactly failed on heavy ground, they've hardly experienced it and most of them have gone well on soft ground...

...whilst the place stats look like this...

...from which I think I'd be focusing upon Famous Bridge and Credo most. The pace data from the field's last few races say that Credo is likely to be held up for a run, whilst Famous Bridge tends to run in mid-division. All indications, however, point to the likes of Eleanor Bob and Dr Kananga setting the early tempo...

Our pace analyser suggests this early pace is the best approach to winning races here, but that a mid-divisional position is great for making the frame...

Summary

Famous Bridge, Credo and Eleanor Bob were first, second and fourth home here at class, course and distance last time out and I think that's where I want to be looking. Despite the pace stats suggesting that Credo might struggle, her yard is in cracking form and with a 3lb pull on the LTO winner, I fancy her to overturn those placings. Eleanor Bob is also better off at the weights here and was running for the first time in 21 months last time out. She gets weight all round here and should come on for having had the run and I suspect/hope we'll have a cracking three-way battle after three energy-sapping miles.

They are, understandably, well-fancied by the 4.30pm market...

...and with neither of them really long enough for an E/W bet, my play here is Credo at 11/2.

That's me done now until after Christmas, so wherever you are and however you spend Christmas, I sincerely hope it's an enjoyable one.
All the best,
Chris

Racing Insights, Thursday 21/12/2023

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.25 Exeter
  • 2.55 Exeter
  • 3.08 Southwell
  • 3.15 Ffos Las

I'm not particularly keen on any of those, so I'll focus on the day's highest rated race, the 4.10 Southwell, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Clarendon House and Clearpoint both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three and now makes a Southwell debut. Exalted Angel and Alligator Alley were both placed third on their last outings, but the former hasn't won any of his last 22 races! Elsewhere Fine Wine and May Sonic are winless in eight and nine races respectively.

Exalted Angel will hope that a drop in class (3rd of 10 in a Listed race LTO) is halepful towards snapping his cold spell, but Clearpoint and Bedford Flyer both step up in class, despite the latter coming home 7th of 9 last time out. He does now wear a visor for the first time, though.

Fine Wine is coming back from a three-month break here, but the remainder have all been out in the last four to six weeks. Clarendon House and Clearpoint both race at Southwell for the first time, but both have already won at least once over this trip, whilst all five of their rivals are former course and distance winners, as shown below in our feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where Alligator Alley is the immediate eyecatcher. Fine Wine has a good set of numbers, but defeat in a couple of valuable Class 2 races prevents him having a line of green. Clarendon House and Clearpoint are both relatively inexperienced on the A/W, whilst Exalted Angel & May Sonic look a little out of their depth here, a though backed up by the place stats...

...which suggest we should focus on Clarendon House, Fine Wine, Alligator Alley and possibly Clearpoint. This quartet are drawn in stalls 1 to 4 over a straight 5 furlongs, so you wouldn't expect them to have an advantage from being drawn low to middle, other than Alligator Alley possibly having the rail to keep him straight, but let's check the stats from previous past races...

These do suggest there's little in the draw from a win perspective, but there does seem to be a small advantage being drawn low with regards to making the frame, as shown below in the stall-by-stall analysis...

...but I suspect that, as with most straight 5f sprints, pace will win the race and here at Southwell, those races above have mainly been won by those setting the pace, with those chasing often running on for a place...

...and this might be where the previously heralded Alligator Alley might run into trouble...

He'll have the rail, but there's a risk he gets cuts across by those making a quicker start.

Summary

I do like Alligator Alley here, but I'm concerned that his path might be blocked if he doesn't ping the gates and his past form suggests that he won't do that here. He still looks good for a top three finish (a handful of bookies are paying five places), but at a best price of 11/4, I can't be going E/W with him. Clearpoint is also 11/4 and he's 3 from 4 on the A/W including 2 from 2 on tapeta. He made all and ran on well tin by almost two lengths over this trip at Wolverhampton last time out and that performance looks like being the one to beat here, so it would be Clearpoint for me.

All of which leaves me with Fine Wine and Clarendon House and both of these are more than capable of making the frame. The latter could well go on to win and is reasonably well priced at 4/1. As for Fine Wine, he's far from my idea of a winner and would need some luck to make the frame based on the qualities of the other trio I've mentioned, but if one of them falters, 8/1 E/W (3 places) with bet365 might be useful.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Thursday for Friday's racing), as I'm out on a Christmas jolly, but I'll be back with you on Friday for my last pre-Christmas post.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/12/2023

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.10 Lingfield
  • 1.35 Ayr
  • 1.50 Ludlow
  • 2.10 Ayr
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.30 Kempton

...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only highlighted the following qualifier...

And with TS report qualifier Enemy At The Gate running in one of our featured races, let's head North for the 2.10 Ayr, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m5½f on soft ground that is already heavy in places and with more rain expected, it's difficult to expect it to be any quicker come race time. Here's the card...

Mount Melleray returns to action some 24 months after his last start, so he might well need the run here, as all his opponents have raced in the last four weeks with only Ballin Bay emerging as a winner.

He had Enemy At The Gate a length and a half behind him as runner-up that day, whilst Cream of the West and Here Comes McCoy both finished third on their last outings, the latter doing so for the third time in a row but he did win six races ago.

HERE COMES MCCOY has finished third of seven in all three starts over hurdles since unseating his rider on chase debut last New Year's Eve when trying to refuse to jump the first fence. His recent form over these smaller obstacles reads 216333 and he should be in the mix here, but will need to step forward.

MOUNT MELLERAY hasn't been seen since October 2022 and is a 13-race maiden. On the positive side, he has finished in the first three home seven times from his last ten outings and drops a class here. Likely to need a run or two.

CORAL BLUE won three times over hurdles last season, including over 2m4½f here at Ayr on his penultimate run of the campaign. He recently returned from an eight month break at Newcastle, when 9th of 12, beaten by 33 lengths over 2m1f and looking like he needed the run. Should come on for having had the outing, but will need improvement to win here.

NOWINITTOWINIT won back to back hurdles races at Perth in April/May before a six month break. He returned at Musselburgh recently and was beaten by 33 lengths. Now wears a tongue tie for the first time.

BALLIN BAY made steady progress over hurdles (finishing 6643) before getting off the mark at Kelso last time out, beating the re-opposing Enemy At The Gate by a length and a half. That run came after a 229-day absence, so there's every chance he has more to offer.

ENEMY AT THE GATE is a ten-race (2 x NHF, 8 x hrds) maiden, but has ran creditably in defeat of late, finishing 2342 in his last four with runner-up defeats of 0.75 and 1.5 lengths. He was beaten by Ballin Bay last time out, but is now 3lbs better off, so should give another good account of himself here.

CREAM OF THE WEST has yet to make the frame in three starts under Rules, but came closest last time out, when third of six, beaten by less than four lengths on heavy ground at Hexham on his return from a seven-month break. You'd expect him to be able to build upon that, but an opening mark of 97 on handicap debut is hardly lenient.

Instant Expert isn't as useful here as it normally is, but does suggest that but for probably needing the run, this race might have been well suited for Mount Melleray to make the frame...

Here Comes McCoy is sure to like the ground, as should Enemy At the Gate but he has struggled in this grade so far. Coral Blue is our sole track winner and gets this trip readily. Featured runner Enemy At The Gate has fared well in defeat over this distance too.

Looking back over previous similar races here at Ayr, we see that the further forward a horse has raced, the better the chance of making the frame and ultimately going on to win...

...and if we compare that data with our field's running styles in their last three outings (one runner only has three to compare, you see)...

...that would suggest that Cream of the West, Here Comes McCoy and Nowinittowinit might have a job on their hands.

Summary

Ballin Bay beat Enemy At The Gate last time out and even though he's worse off at the weights, I still think he'll maintain the advantage with the benefit of that run under his belt. Mount Melleray scored well on Instant Expert (place) and is likely to be up with the pace, but I just think he'll need the run here.

Coral Blue is a former course and distance winner, but would need to step up to win here and whilst he has every chance of making the frame, I don't think he's as good as Ballin Bay, so almost by default, Ballin Bay is my pick here.

He's currently (4.55pm) priced at 10/3 with bet365, as is Enemy At The Gate and they're probably very closely matched. Coral Blue is interestingly the 8/1 outsider and with bet365 paying three places, he might well be a useful E/W selection.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 19/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Queen of Ipanema must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.10 Fakenham
  • 2.40 Fakenham
  • 2.50 Wincanton

I do like to try and marry the daily feature with the free list where possible and today we're able to do so with Pilsdon Pen, who runs in the 2.50 Wincanton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over an extended 2m4f on good to soft ground, that will be soft in places...

Pilsdon Pen won here over course and distance last time out, making him the only one to have won his last outing. Hall Lane was a runner-up, whilst Harjo also made the frame, although he has yet to win any of his six races under Rules. Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen have all won two of their last seven, Hall Lane won five starts ago and Walk In The Wild won seven races back; he now sports cheekpieces for the first time.

Hall Lane and Pilsdon Pen both ran 26 days ago and their rivals have all raced in the last two months. Midnight Midge and Harlem Soul drop down a class here and Walk In the Wild steps up a level. Harjo is the only one of the six yet to win over a similar trip and three of his rivals (Midnight Midge, Harlem Soul and Pilsdon Pen) have won over course and distance, which leads us nicely into Instant Expert...

...where Hall Lane and Harjo look inexperienced, Midnight Midge looks like he might struggle, but Harlem Soul, Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild all looking well suited by conditions, especially Harlem Soul. A quick look at the place data from those above races doesn't suggest that Midnight Midge has been unlucky...

...but Hall Lane & Harjo's sole efforts carry promise. Our Pace Analyser suggests that we might want be on a horse keen to get on with things...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...would steer you more towards Walk In The Wild and Harjo as opposed to Harlem Soul and Hall Lane. The ground is soft in places and we should note that only Pilsdon Pen and Walk In The Wild have any soft ground form.

Summary

I don't much like Midnight Midge from Instant Expert and Harlem Soul has been beaten by 68 and 34 lengths in his two starts this term. Hall Lane was second on his chase debut recently despite coming off the back of a 228-day absence and he had Prairie Wolf half a length behind him in third and this horse won a 12-runner, Class 4, 2m4½f handicap chase on good to soft ground at Doncaster last Friday, so that's promising, if he comes on for having had a run and if the form holds out.

Harjo has yet to win under Rules and although third LTO, he was beaten by some fourteen lengths on what was his chasing debut and 14 lengths is a big improvement to find especially as the runner-up that day has been well beaten twice since. Shortlisted horse Pilsdon Pen would be expected to go well again on soft-ish ground, but he's up 6lbs here in a tougher race than last time and can't call upon the services of regular rider Rex Dingle either. Walk In The Wild does have some soft ground form, will be up with the leaders and should be suited by conditions, whereas last time out he was undone by a longer trip on heavy ground.

It's a tricky/competitive race to call here (I wish I'd done the 5.00 Wolverhampton race now!) and none of these tick all the boxes. You could make a case for most if not all of them, but my mind tells me that Walk In The Wild's early (Hills at 3.50pm) 13/2 price offers me a bit more value than the 15/8 about Pilsdon Pen, who's definitely going to be involved.

Tolworth Hurdle Trends

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The Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle used to be staged at Sandown Park racecourse in early January and is often a good guide ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March.

However, the race has been moved to Aintree and is now run as the William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Formerly The Tolworth Hurdle)

In recent years, the contest has been a good race for the favourite with 9 of the last 15 market leaders being placed, with six being successful, while winners often go onto contest a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival – with Noland (2006), the 2018 winner – Summerville Boy and 2022 winner Constitution Hill going onto win the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

While the 2016 winner, Yorkhill, went onto land the Neptune Investment Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival later that season.

The Tizzard yard have won three of the last 7 runnings and Nicky Henderson has five successes since 2011, including with the exciting Constitution Hill in 2022. Paul Nicholls won the race three years in a row between 2006 and 2008, plus last year in 2023 with Tahmuras.

Here at GEEGEEZ we give you all the key stats ahead of the 2023 renewal, this year staged on Tuesday December 26th

Recent Tolworth Hurdle Winners

2023 - TAHMURAS (5/2)
2022 – CONSTITUTION HILL (2/5 fav)
2021 - METIER (7/4 fav)
2020 – FIDDLERONTHEROOF (5/4 fav)
2019 - ELIXIR DU NUTZ (3/1)
2018 - SUMMERVILLE BOY (8/1)
2017 – FINIAN’S OSCAR (11/10 fav)
2016 – YORKHILL (4/9 fav)
2015 – L’AMI SERGE (4/9 fav)
2014 – ROYAL BOY (9/1)
2013 – MELODIC RENDEZVOUS (7/2)
2012 – CAPTAIN CONAN (9/1)
2011 – MINELLA CLASS (6/4 fav)
2010 – No Race
2009 – No Race
2008 – BREEDSBREEZE (6/4 fav)
2007 – SILVERBURN (5/1)
2006 – NOLAND (6/4 fav)
2005 – MARCEL (3/1)
2004 – LINGO (5/4 fav)
2003 – THISTHATANDOTHER (11/4)

Tolworth Hurdle Betting Trends

18/19 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
18/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Priced  5/1 or shorter
17/19 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
16/19 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
16/19 – Came from the top three in the market
15/19 – Won last time out
13/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
10/19– Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
10/19 – Winning Favourites
6/19 – Ran at either Sandown (4) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
4/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
4/19 – Ran at Sandown before
2/19 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
3/19 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Constitution Hill, 2022, Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/19 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 25 of the last 31 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 3/1

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Racing Insights, Monday 18/12/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Plumpton
  • 2.55 Musselburgh
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

...of which, the first is the highest-rated on a day of fairly mediocre standard racing across three fixtures. The race is the 2.10 Plumpton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground...

Bottom-weight Guguss Collonges brings the best recent results to the table as our only LTO winner and has won two of his last three, as also has Tip Top Mountain, but was 7th here over course and distance recently. Sublime Heights is 2 from 5 and Henschke won two races ago, but half of the field are winless in five (or more!) starts.

All of these have had a run in the last six weeks, so all should be race-ready. The top five in the weights are all dropping down from Class 3, whilst the two at the bottom of the card/weights are both up a class here. Movethechains is winless in six, so his yard have decided to apply blinkers for the first time and have installed a 10lb claimer to lighten the load.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Henschke, Special Acceptance & Uallrightharry) have already scored over course and distance, whilst Guguss Collonges has won a 2m4f chase here previously. Milan Bridge (from legendary sire Milan) won a 3m2f hurdle at Hereford back in March 2022, but Movethechains and Almazhar Garde have won at neither track nor trip, although they have both landed events at slightly shorter distances as shown on Instant Expert below...

...where Tip Top Mountain is the immediate eye-catcher and top-weight I See You Well only appears to be let down by his 1 from 10 record on good to soft, which is strange, as he's 5 from 18 on Good and 2 from 8 on Soft, so you'd have expected him to have fared better on good to soft? Sublime Heights has less experience under these conditions, but has fared well enough whilst Movethechains should relish the trip on good to soft ground.

Monday's free feature is access to the pace profile for all races, showing how horses have run in their last few outings and for this race, it looks like this...

...with the in-form Guguss Collonges and Instant Expert eyecatcher Tip Top Mountain showing as confirmed front-runners, whilst I'd expect Special Acceptance to be held up in a race that hasn't been particularly kind to front-runners in the past...

Summary

When assessing recent form allied to the collateral relevant results via Instant Expert and also the pace data above, we're getting a mixed message.

On form, I'd want to be with Guguss Collonges, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and maybe Henschke, whilst Instant Expert suggested Tip Top Mountain, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Movethechains, whilst only Special Acceptance and I See You Well look like being held up.

So, none of them tick all three boxes, but Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and I See You Well feature twice, but to be honest with you, you can make a case for most of the field here, so I won't be having a bet.

If I was, though, I'd probably take Tip Top Mountain to win (5/1 with Hills at 3.45pm) and maybe a small E/W play on Sublime Heights (currently 10's), but aside from Milan Bridge and Uallrightharry (a pair I'm not keen on), any of these could win/place in what looks a competitive affair.

Racing Insights, Saturday 16/12/2023

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 11.55 Hereford
  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Fairyhouse
  • 2.25 Cheltenham
  • 3.22 Hereford
  • 3.35 Cheltenham

All told, between the TJC qualifiers and the 'free' races, I've plenty to go at , but one race features on both lists, so we'll have a look at the 3.35 Cheltenham where in-form friend of Geegeez Anthony Honeyball sends the 7yr old Good Look Charm to tackle a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

The sharper eyed amongst you will also have spotted that Anthony has another runner in this race in the shape of Geegeez syndicate-owned Coquelicot, who will be partnered by Rex Dingle. This horse/jockey combination have six wins and four further places from thirteen races together, so that's another interesting angle to the race, I think.

Martha Divine is the only one of the ten without a win in five races, in fact she has been beaten in her last seven and now comes back off a break of nine months to make a yard debut for Harry Fry. She has had wind surgery during her lay-off and that should help her run better, she also sports a hood for the first time and Harry Fry's a great trainer, but I suspect her best is yet to come in later races!

All her nine rivals have had the benefit of a run in the last three to nine weeks with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm all winning last time out. Windtothelightning has won four of her last five, whilst Bonttay is three from four and has won six times from her nine career starts, finishing as runner-up in the other three!

She is, however, up two classes here (but did win a Class 2 two starts ago) and Windtothelightning also steps up a level. Conversely, top-weight Theatre Glory, LTO Listed class winner Coquelicot and handicap debutant Nurse Susan all drop down from Class 1 action.

Theatre Glory has already won over course and distance here at HQ, landing a Listed Novice Hurdle in April of last year and Bonttay landed a pair (Class 2 & Listed) of back to back 2m½f bumpers here in October/November 2021. Aside from Theatre Glory, though, only Windtothelightning, Coquelicot and Ilovethe nightlife have won over a similar trip to this one, even if Coquelicot did win over 3,1f last time out.

Results under similar conditions can, of course, be found by clicking the Instant Expert tab on the racecard...

...where in-form Bonttay looks the one to best, notwithstanding her lack of experience beyond 2m1f and her stepping bck up in class. Featured runner Good Look Charm will enjoy the soft ground, whilst Windtothelightning's record at the trip is excellent, although she does now run off 12lbs higher than when winning at Wetherby six weeks ago defying a 198-day lay-off. That weight hike aside, there are no real causes for concern raised by Instant Expert, so I'm going to look at the place data to try and 'eliminate some from my enquiries'...

I'm going to be rather picky here and just highlight the ones who have green or no runs at going/class/course/distance, leaving me with Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm as my takeaways from Instant Expert, as we now move on to assess race tactics aka pace.

Geegeez followers will know from past reports that Coquelicot likes to do her racing from the front of the pack, but recent efforts by her rivals suggest that she might have some company up top from the likes of Stainsby Girl, Good Look Charm and Theatre Glory...

...with Zestful, Nurse Susan and Bonttay towards the rear, although the latter did win at Exeter four starts ago from a prominent position. That said, Cheltenham is a true test of a horse and the cream invariably rises to the top regardless of pace and whilst front-runners have had the edge on making the frame here in similar past races, the races have been won pretty evenly across all running styles...

...which pretty much takes me back to my Instant Expert quartet.

Summary

I've pretty quickly narrowed the field down to Windtothelightning, Coquelicot, Bonttay and Good Look Charm, courtesy of Instant Expert and recent form and of these four, I think Bonttay is the one to beat, but the other three are more than capable on their day and all look to have a great chance of making the frame.

Bonttay is the 3/1 favourite as of 4.10pm with Coquelicot and Windtothelightning both priced at 7/1 with Good Look Charm out at 10's. Skybet are paying four places here, so all of them would be worth considering.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 15/12/2023

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Cheltenham
  • 1.05 Doncaster
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.15 Doncaster
  • 8.30 Southwell

...from which I think I'll have a bash at the 1.50 Cheltenham, a 13-runner, Class 3, Mares' Handicap Chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on soft ground...

Only Mad About Sally managed to win last time out, but all bar the top four in the weights, La Malmason, Happy D'Ex, Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover have won at least one of their last five and all thirteen have won at least one of their last seven. La Malmason, Walk In Clover, Eureka Creek, Game On For Glory, I Am Gonna Be and Pougne Aminta did all at least have top three finishes in their latest runs.

We have two runners (Royale Margeaux & Walk In Clover) dropping a class here with the former running for the first time since wind surgery. Moving the other direction and stepping up in class are Mad About Sally, I Am Gonna Be, Malaita, Brianna Rose, Game On for Glory and Pougne Aminta with the last two named now making just a second handicap outing, as do La Malmason and Happy D'Ex.

Happy D'Ex has been off the track the longest at 187 days, during which time she has moved yards from Gordon Elliot to be with new handler Sheila Lewis, whose last 29 runners have all been beaten with only two even making the frame. The rest of this field have all raced in the last seven weeks.

Walk In Clover is the only course and distance winner in the race, having landed a Grade 2 contest here in April off a mark just 4lbs lower than today, whilst Malaita won a 2m4½f hurdle here on the same day. In fact, only Royale Margeaux, Game On For Glory, Mad About Sally and Brianna rose have yet to score over a similar trip to this one, whilst Instant Expert tells us...

...that this is a fairly inexperienced bunch of chasers, but that Lilith has strung together some decent efforts over fences to date...

She tends to want to be at the head of affairs and has gone well enough to be able to hang on for a place in 9 of 15 starts over fences (inc 3 wins, the latest of which was off today's mark), but she might not have it all her own way as the pace profiles from the field's last four outings...

...suggest that Malaita and Pougne Aminta might want to keep her company upfront and our Pace Analyser says that this would be the ideal approach here...

Summary

There's not much evidence of it above, but I think the main players here are going to be Grade 2 course and distance winner Walk In Clover, LTO winner Mad About Sally, course winner Malaita and the Irish challenger La Malmason who was third last time out to a subsequent Grade 1 runner-up. These look to be the best horses in the race and this is sadly reflected in the 6.30pm market where they are best-priced at 4/1, 7/1, 11/2 and 3/1.

I expect this to be a fairly tight contest, but if pushed for a winner here, I'd take the 4/1 about Walk In Clover with Mad About Sally a real E/W contender.

From the evidence we did have above, Lilith was the standout for me and I think she's better than her current 20/1 price ticket. She's thoroughly consistent and I'm happy to put her last effort down to needing a run and at 20's she could well be a nice E/W play, especially as most firms are paying four places and Sky go to five!

Racing Insights, Thursday 14/12/2023

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.20 Taunton
  • 2.20 Naas
  • 3.40 Warwick
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

To be honest, none of those five make much appeal to me and the day's highest-rated UK race might well be a Listed contest, but small-field Novice chases don't float my boat either. Next best is the day's sole Class 2 race, so we'll head there and take a look at the 8.00 Chelmsford, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Top-weight Tacarib Bay was a winner last time out, as were Fantastic Fox and Desert Order who both seek to complete hat-tricks, but the latter might need the run as he makes just a second handicap appearance more than 14 months after he last raced. Excel Power and Rhythm N Rock are the only ones winless in their last six (7 & 9 respectively, actually) races.

Despite winning a Listed race at Newcastle four weeks ago, top-weight Tacarib Bay actually drops down in class here, but the bottom four on the card/weights, Rhythm N Rock, Batemans Bay, hat-trick seeking Fantastic Fox and Lord Bertie all step up from Class 3 with the latter making a yard debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam, having left William Haggas during the 12-week break since his last outing.

Aside from the obvious 423 day absence of Desert Order (he has been gelded in that time), only Diderot at 189 days has been away longer than Lord Bertie with the other six runners all having been out at least once in the last four to eight weeks.

Class-dropper Tacarib Bay and the returning Desert Order have both yet to win over a mile unlike their seven rivals, of which three, Diderot, Excel Power and the fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (who doesn't love a bit of alliteration?), are all former course and distance winners.

Despite winning a Listed race recently, Tacarib Bay shows up on Instant Expert with a 0 from 3 record at Class 2...

...but his rivals have hardly been prolific in this grade and I don't think he's going to be outclassed here. Diderot's Class 2 record is even worse, but Helm Rock and Fantastic Fox look well suited albeit from a small sample size of races, whilst Excel Power has more experience and wins to his name.

As Instant Expert is today's guest feature, we'll have a quick glance at the place stats, but they don't really help to separate the runners for us...

Here at Chelmsford over a mile the pace angle has been more of an issue than the draw, but both are important of course. What we have seen in similar past races is that the lower a horse has been drawn the greater its chances of placing and ultimately winning, whilst it's well versed about this track being a bit of a speedway where early pace is amply rewarded. A slight anomaly appears on the pace/draw heat map, though, with the mid-drawn leader faring best of all, one assumes it's to do with not having as sharp a turn to make, somewhat similar to a Formula 1 'racing line' through the apex of the bend...

The only issue we have with this field and the above data, is that there are no real out and out front-running types here, based on their most recent efforts...

...but I suspect that Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie from stalls 1, 3 and 5 will try to lead the way home from an early point, which makes Fantastic Fox's recent course and distance win very interesting, as the race report said..."held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, soon made headway and switched left, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well..." and all that came from stall 10 of 10!

Summary

Desert Order, Excel Power and Lord Bertie look like providing the early pace, but the former makes an A/W debut coming off a lengthy absence, the second-named hasn't won for over a year and the latter also makes an A/W debut and had two indifferent runs in September when last seen.

What I think will happen is that they'll drag the wider-drawn horses along and inadvertently set themselves up as targets for the in-form pair of Tacarib Bay and Fantastic Fox. This pair look most likely to succeed in my eyes and if pushed for a winner, I'd probably side with Frankel's fast-finishing Fantastic Fox (sorry!).  My 1-2 are best priced at 9/2 and 5/1 with the returning Desert Order a short-looking 2/1 or 9/4.

Elsewhere at bigger prices, Lord Bertie might be able to hold on for a place and be a reasonable E/W pick at 8/1, whilst feature of the day Instant Expert says that Helm Rock might be better than a 10/1 ticket might suggest.

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