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Racing Insights, Friday 17/11/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers for Friday...

...plus I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races if needed...

  • 12.50 Wexford
  • 3.05 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 4.50 Newcastle
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Dundalk

...but I think I'll stick with my H4C report qualifiers and have a look at Pockley and the 3.40 Newcastle, an 11-runner, 3yo+ A/W sprint handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

Strong Johnson, Dickieburd and featured runner Pockely all come here off the back of a recent (7-10 days) win, whilst Bergerac, Treacherous and Ramon Di Loria were all placed on their last outings.

Bergerac, Venturous, Treacherous and Ramon di Loria are all winless in at least seven races (9, 19, 10 and 13 respectively) to be precise and the latter surely won't be helped by stepping up a class. Bergerac does, at least, drop down a class, as do Brooklyn Nine Nine and Be Proud.

Eight of the field have raced in the last fortnight or so and even Be Proud, Princess Karine (sole filly in the race), Venturous and Brooklyn Nine Nine shouldn't be rusty after short breaks of 20, 48, 59 and 68 days either.

Bergerac is the only runner yet to win at either track or trip with only Brooklyn Nine Nine and Treacherous of his rivals still seeking a first win at 5f. They have both, however, already won here at Newcastle over 6f, as has Dickieburd. Strong Johnson, Venturous (won this race in 2020), Be Proud, Ramon di Loria and featured runner Pockley have all scored over course and distance.

Instant Expert suggests that bottom weight Ramon di Loria might well be the least best suited to the conditions here...

...and his won record at going/course/trip are a concern, as are Treacherous' numbers on standard going and Be Proud's return at Class 4 in terms of wins. From the above, featured horse Pockley (as expected) and top weight Strong Johnson probably make most appeal on those numbers, but let's see if the place stats suggest any have been unlucky...

Well, from a place perspective, bottom weight Ramon di Loria certainly looks a different proposition and in draw order, these are the ones that make most appeal from the place data...

...and our draw analyser says that the first three of those seven might find it hardest to win here based on previous races...

That said, I'm always a little wary of leaning too heavily on past draw data for straight sprint, where there really shouldn't be much in it and it really should be fastest runner wins and this is backed up to some extent by the pace analysis of those 90-odd races above...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...we see that there aren't many happy to set the pace, but that Strong Johnson and Princess Karine look like being able to overcome a seemingly adverse low draw by getting away sharply.

Summary

I think I want to be focusing on the seven runners highlighted by the place data on Instant Expert and I'm going to stick my neck out and say I'm more interested in pace than I am in the draw here and I'm going to put Strong Johnson and Princess Karine forward as my main fancies for this one. They're both in good form, but Strong Johnson looks in better nick and beat Princess Karine on her last run. Only Bet365 have priced this up as of 3.00pm and they go 6/1 and 7/1 respectively and I'd take them to finish in that order. I might split stakes.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/11/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.30 Market Rasen
  • 1.15 Taunton
  • 3.10 Sedgefield
  • 3.15 Punchestown

Aside from a 5-runner Listed race at Market Rasen, there's nothing higher than a Class 4 contest in the UK on Thursday, so with that in mind, I'm going to swerve the free races and potential weather disruptions and head down to Essex for the 6.00 Chelmsford, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard polytrack...

Top weight Sir Oliver is our only LTO winner in the field having won a 12-runner handicap over this trip at Lingfield nine days ago beating the re-opposing Riot (5th) and Jilly Cooper (12th) by 1.15 and 42 lengths respectively. Riot is however 5lbs better off with the winner today. Consistent placer Revolutionise, Society Lion and Englebert all made the frame last time around and G'daay, Society Lion, Eden Storm, Hot Chesnut and Engelbert have all won inside their last six outings.

The bottom three on the card are our class movers with Hot Chesnut down a level and Engelbert & Spacer up from Class 5 with the latter now blinkered for the first time, whilst Maxi Boy now makes a debut in a visor. Most of the filed have had a recent run, but Society Lion has had ten weeks off and Revolutionise races for the first time since a narrow course and distance defeat over seven months ago.

Maxi Boy is the only runner in the field yet to win over this trip and five (Sir Oliver, Revolutionise, G'daay, Riot & Hot Chesnut) have scored over track and trip, as seen here on Instant Expert...

...which although not painting too impressive a picture, does suggest the likes of Sir Oliver and Revolutionise might go well here. Riot, Little Boy Blue and Spacer are short on standard going wins, G'daay and Little boy Blue have poor Class 4 records on the A/W and Sir Oliver has struggled to get ahead here at Chelmsford in the past, whilst Hot Chesnut has hardly set the world on fire at this trip.

With not much winning form/green boxes above, it might prove prudent to look at the place stats to at least see who might be in the mix here...

...from which, I think I want to focus more on the runners in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 & 10...

...over a course and distance that our Draw Analyser suggests that there's very little to be gained from any particular stall...

On bare stats from 60+ races, it looks like high draws win more often, but low draws make the frame more consistently, so I'd be inclined to suggest the draw here, isn't as influential as race tactics aka pace might be and if we look at those races above through the Pace Analyser, we get a familiar Chelmsford picture...

...where prominent runners do well, but upfront is really the place to be, which should suit Maxi Boy, Sir Oliver and Revolutionise more than the other three on my whittled down version of Instant Expert...

...if they run like they normally do, of course!

Summary

If after discarding half of the field after the Instant Expert analysis, I'm left with the six runners above, then I'm more drawn to the first three named but Maxi Boy hasn't won any of his last seventeen and will need his first-time visor to perk him up a little. I'm not suggesting he can't/won't make the frame, but early odds (Only Hills showing prices at 2.30pm Wednesday) of 10/1 aren't doing it for me. Had he been 16's or bigger, I might have been tempted with a couple of quid.

This leaves me with Sir Oliver & Revolutionise and I suspect they'll finish in that order, but that suits me fine with a 5/1 win bet and a 17/2 E/W option at the time of writing.

Riot is the current 7/2 favourite and that sort of makes sense now that he's 5lbs better off with Sir Oliver with only just over a length to make up, but he tends to be held up and might well leave himself with too much to do here to win, but could well make the frame and even split my two picks.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Bangor
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 5.50 Newcastle
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

And from all the races above, I'm going to look at the 7.30 Kempton, as it's on the free list and has a runner from the daily free feature in the shape of James Fanshawe's Royal Scandal. The race itself is a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Cardano is the only LTO winner in this field, but Capital Theory, Enthrallment and Haku all had top three finishes. Most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings, but Graphite, Enthrallment and Kenzai Warrior have lost their last 9, 8 and 15 races respectively.

The latter's cause won't be helped by stepping up a class here, as do Enthrallment and Haku with Cardano and Buxted Too both up two grades, whilst Savvy Knight, Batemans Bay, Capital Theory and Geremia all drop down a level with Batemans Bay running in a handicap for just the second time, as does Adrian; Kenzai Warrior wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Adrian, Cardano, Graphite, Dark Moon Rising and Geremia have all won over this trip elsewhere, whilst the latter has scored here over two miles. Kenzai Warrior has also won here and that was over a mile, whilst Savvy Knight, Buxted Too, Royal Scandal and Haku are all former course and distance winners, as highlighted by Instant Expert...

...where featured runner Royal Scandal is the immediate eyecatcher, albeit of a small sample size. Buxted Too and Haku have good records at this type of trip, but Savvy Knight and Capital Theory share just 1 win from 14 attempts, however the latter has made the frame in 5 of his 7 defeats...

...and he (Capital Theory) looks to be a strong contender for the frame on the above evidence, as do Geremia and Haku. This trio will set off from opposite ends of the stalls, though with Capital Theory drawn in 1 and the other pair out in 9 & 11 but our Draw Analyser says that the draw shouldn't be the reason for a horse losing this race...

...with any advantage gained only being slight. This is pretty logical, I'd have thought with a mile and a half to run, the draw really shouldn't be an issue. The key here at Kempton over this type of trip is not to leave yourself too much to do, as the Pace Analyser says that hold-up horses fare worse than any others...

...which, based on the field's last three outings doesn't represent great news for the likes of Graphite, Dark Moon Rising, Batemans Bay and Geremia...

...but it looks like Capital Theory and Adrian will be amongst the early pacemakers.

Royal Scandal, Capital Theory, Geremia and Haku were the ones that stood out for me from Instant Expert, but only Capital Theory and Haku look like having decent enough pace profiles to do well here from that quartet. I'd add Adrian, Savvy Knight and Enthrallment into the mix on pace too, to give me a shortlist of five to consider here.

Summary

I've left myself with five to look at and two of them : Capital Theory (5/1), Royal Scandal (6/1) and Savvy Knight (13/2) are in the trio at the top end of the market, along with our featured runner. Of the three, I like Capital Theory the best, but I think 5/1 is too short here and the other pair aren't long enough for my liingto back E/W.

So, that brings me to Enthrallment, Haku and Adrian and of this trio, it's Enthrallment who interests me most as an E/W option at 17/2 with Hills who pay four places. He was a runner-up last time out beaten by less than a length but well clear of the pack and a similar run puts him in the frame again.

Adrian is a rank outsider with plenty to prove, but Haku could go well here. A former course and distance winner who looks in decent nick and was third over C&D off a pound higher last time out. He's currently available at 10/1 with Hills (4 places) and could also be a reasonable E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/11/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.50 Ludlow
  • 1.05 Clonmel
  • 3.10 Ludlow
  • 3.45 Ludlow
  • 3.55 Sedgefield

Those races above don't really grab my attention, so I'm going to have a look at the day's highest rated handicap hurdle in the UK, the 2.25 Newbury, a 12-runner, Class 2 affair over a left-handed 3m 52yds (+138 yds) on good to soft/soft ground...

Emitom, Young Butler and bottom-weight Equinus all won last time out, whilst Hititi has won his last three with Fifty Ball the only one without a 'recent' win, having lost eight on the bounce.

LTO winners Hititi, Emitom and Equinus are all up one class here, as are Zanza, Only the Bold and regular runner-up Martha Brae whilst another LTO winner Young Butler is up two classes for his yard debut for Paul O'Brien.

Conversely Our Power, Dolphin Square and Grumpy Charley all drop down from Class 1 action. Equinus and Fifty Ball last ran 11 and 33 days ago respectively, but the rest of the field have been off the track for six to nine months, during which time Only The Bold had wind surgery.

Only four of these (Bold Endeavour, Grumpy Charley, Martha Brae and Fifty Ball) have yet to win over a similar trip, whilst Dolphin Square and Emitom have won over course and distance. Our Power (2m1f hurdle), Zanza (2m½f, 2m6½f & 2m7½f chases) and Grumpy Charley (2m6½f & 3m2½f chases) are also former Newbury winners, as shown below on Instant Expert...

That's overall NH form, of course, so we now need to remove the chasing stats from the above, as follows...

...where only Fifty Ball has struggled to win with these underfoot conditions. We're a bit shy on Class 2 experience/wins, but Dolphin Square's 3 from 8 is decent enough. Zanza and Emitom are the pick on course hurdle wins, whilst the field's record at 3m+ looks a bit patchy in the main with Martha Brae's 1 from 11 looking particularly poor, although as you can see below, she did make the frame in four of her ten defeats...

From the above, Dolphin Square looks like being a candidate for an E/W bet with a solid line of green off a decent sample size of races and off a mark 4lbs lower than his last win back in December. He's also had 10 wins and 5 places from the 19 starts under today's jockey. If he runs like he has in his last four races and the rest of the field do the same, then I'd expect him to be quite prominent in the upper half of the field and he did win five races ago from a prominent position...

Bold Endeavour looks like being the one to set the tempo here, with likely favourite Equinus towards the rear along with Zanza and Young Butler, but our Pace Analyser of past similar races suggests that the back of the field might not be the place to run from...

Summary

Equinus is the current fav at a generally available 15/8, although Bet365 do offer 9/4. I think this is a bit skinny about a horse who is likely to have to pass most of the field late on. That said, he's unexposed at the trip and won well at Aintree last time out. He gets weight all round and isn't penalised for his LTO win and might well be the one to beat, but I can't be backing him at 15/8.

I'm not sure who'd beat him, though, if I'm honest. Front runner Bold Endeavour might try to put enough distance between himself and the fav, but he's carrying 12-0 which will be tough here and 13/2 isn't E/W territory for me. Sadly the same applies to 7/1 shot Hititi, who also comes here in great form and has a good pace profile for this race. he'd need a career best to win, but I think he's in with a great shout of making the frame (4 places) and I'd certainly be interested at 8's or bigger.

All of which brings me back to prolific placer Dolphin Square. He too has a good pace profile for this contest, his IE place stats are the best on offer and he gets on really well with today's jockey.

He's 4lbs below his last win and at 10/1 (generally), he's my E/W fancy, whilst at bigger (18's) odds, Our Power is an interest as he switches back to hurdles. He went into this year's Grand National off the back of consecutive Class 1 handicap chase wins over 3m and ran really well for a long way in the national before finishing 11th. he runs off 4lbs lower here and the drop in trip and easier jumping might just be his ticket.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.05 Musselburgh
  • 2.15 Musselburgh
  • 3.10 Dundalk
  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 6.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following pair of runners for me to consider...

30-day form...

Course 1-year form...

The TS report races and the free list both include a Class 2 contest, which is as good as it gets in the UK this Wednesday and we're going to focus on the race featuring James Fanshawe's 6 yr old gelding Fresh, as his race is easily the most valuable of the day at over £41k to the winner. The race, of course, is the 7.00 Kempton, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

Clearpoint was the only one of these to win last time out, but he's up two classes here. And although beaten on their latest outings, Prop Forward, Fivethousandtoone, Aramis Grey and Baldomero all had top-three finishes, but the latter is now up a class, as are the fast-finishing May Sonic, yard debutant Danger Alert, Justcallmepete, Watchya and Admiral D.

Fresh, May Sonic, Watchya, Baldomero and Admiral D are all without a win in at least seven races, having actually lost 9, 7, 7, 19 & 16 respectively on the bounce! Dubai Station is another making a yard debut here and featured horse Fresh will wear cheekpieces for the first time.

Four of this field raced just a week ago here over this course and distance at a class lower than this and here's how they finished in 3rd, 5th, 6th and 7th in a 9-runner field won by another James Fanshawe horse...

Four others have raced in the last 23-39 days, but the final four may well need the run, as Dubai Station & Danger Alert return from 4 month breaks; Prop Forward has been off for six months and it's nine months since Fivethousandtoone was last seen

Baldomero is the only runner in the field yet to score over 6f, but he has at least won here at Kempton, albeit 20 races ago when landing a Class 2, 1m2f handicap just over 20 months ago. Six others have also been successful at this track with Prop Forward, Fresh, May Sonic, Danger Alert, Aramis Grey and Clearpoint all former course and distance winners and those wins are included in the following data from Instant Expert...

...where I have immediate concerns about Baldomero (going/class), Aramis Grey (class) and Fresh (trip). Fresh is also showing at 18lbs higher than his last A/W win, which would be a major issue, but that is tempered somewhat by the fact that his last win was off 91 on the Flat at Ascot, he's still 6lbs above that, of course and not in the best of form, but 6lbs is far better than 18lbs.

Despite his poor return at Class 2 on the A/W, Aramis Grey looks like being one of the best suited here behind May Sonic and the obvious pick, Prop Forward. His 1 from 8 at this grade might well contain a number of near misses, so let's check the place stats...

...which say he has made the frame in six of his seven Class 2 defeats and he's a real contender now. Prop Forward's 100% record across the line is impressive and both Fivethousandtoone and Baldomero have great numbers, but May Sonic now looks like a win or bust merchant.

Our Draw Analyser suggests a distinctive advantage to being placed in the lowest third of the draw for both win and place perspectives...

...which will be welcomed by connections of Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D, but as we all know by now, getting a 'plum' draw is only half of the battle in these sprint contests and we really shouldn't underplay the pace/tactics side of the equation. Using those same 220+ races as above, our Pace Analyser says that as with many sprints, pace wins the race with leaders winning/placing far more often (percentage-wise) than the rest of the field...

In fact, the 290 leaders make up just 11.54% of the total runners, but account for 27.68% of the winners and 20.24% of the placer, but the interesting thing is that almost 46% of leaders who make the frame then go on to win. If we then look at how this field have raced in their three most recent outings, then it looks like another tick in the box for Instant Expert stand-out Prop Forward...

...and if we arrange the field into draw order and impose them onto the pace/draw heatmap...

...I'd suggest that Prop Forward beats Justcallmepete, Dubai Station, May Sonic and Admiral D to the bend and will get to cut across the apex and lead the way home with the rail at this disposal.

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the pace/draw combinations, it's difficult to envisage Prop Forward not being the one to beat. His A/W record reads 1131 with the last two being over this class, course and distance and whilst he's not been seen for six months, it's worth noting those last two A/W runs (over class, C&D) saw him third of eleven after 213 days off and he then won a 12-runner affair 251 days later on his next appearance, so this lay-off doesn't worry me.

We're not getting rich or upsetting the applecart by backing a 10/3 (Hills at 4.50pm) favourite, but Prop Forward looks the most likely to succeed in my eyes.

I like the look of Aramis Grey, but he's going to have to fly late on to get involved from the back, so if I was to look for a longer-priced E/W punt, then I think that the fast finishing May Sonic might be the one at 12/1 (Bet365, 4 places), whilst you could also make cases for both Baldomero (11/1 PP, 4 places) and Watchya (20/1 PP, 4 places) if they get away smartly from wider draws, as they should be able to cut across the runners in stalls 5 to 8 to give chase to Prop Forward.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/11/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where a few would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.12 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Chelmsford
  • 3.58 Fairyhouse
  • 4.40 Newcastle
  • 6.25 Newcastle

There are two Class 1 races on Tuesday and one of them is on our list of free races, so we're heading off for the 1.12 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ Fillies and Mares Listed contest over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Al Agaila won last time out and Coco Jamboo has won her last two, but both step up two classes here. Potapova, Zellie, Good Gracious and Pastiche were all runners-up last time around, but the last of that quartet is now up three classes, whilst Julia Augusta and Taarabb are both up one level despite failing to make the frame at Class 2.

Our card doesn't have the benefit of showing Zellie's French form which read 1112212 before her fourth place in last year's 1000 Guineas, so she's not the one with the longest losing run on display here, that would be Potapova, Queen Aminatu and Tarrabb, who all won seven races ago.

It's not a handicap contest, so all runners carry 9-2 with a 2lb allowance for the five 3yo's in the race, making Zellie and Nigiri joint best off at the weights with Coco Jamboo rated some 15lbs worse and I suspect the top four in the official ratings would be a useful starting point for someone who didn't want to analyse the full field.

Most of the field have raced inside the last 40 days and Tarrabb ran in early September, but Julia Augusta and Zellie have been off for six months, so their fitness might have to be taken on trust.

All bar Coco Jamboo, Pastiche and Zouky have already won over a mile, but only two have won here at Lingfield before (mind you, only three have run here!). Al Agaila has finished 311 in three starts here, winning twice over 1m2f after finishing third over this trip, whilst Queen Animatu's record here reads 113 with a win and a place over 7f and a win in this very race last year, making her the sole course and distance winner. For the sake of tying loose ends up, the other Lingfield run by this field saw Zouki finish last of five back in March after a 6-month break.

All this course/distance form is shown in Instant Expert, of course, along with results on standard going and Class 1 action...

...where Al Agaila and Queen Aminatu look the ones setting the standard. In addition to the above, three of these have raced at Class 2 on the A/W, with Al Agaila winning two of three, Queen Animatu winning her only attempt and Coco Jamboo finishing 3rd of 7 at Wolverhampton in March.

Our Draw Analyser suggests that there's no real advantage to a high or low draw, based on the evidence of almost 200 past similar races...

...but the Pace Analyser says that the further forward you can race, the greater the chance of winning or making the frame, based on that same set of races...

...and this is how the field have approached their last two races...

Summary

I suggested that those people wanting to avoid a full race analysis might want to focus upon Zellie, Potapova, Queen Animatu and Nigiri and I think this quartet along with the in-form and Instant Expert-highlighted Al Agaila will be the main protagonists.

I'd expert all bar Queen Aminatu of that bunch to race prominently, but she makes up for it by having an excellent set of numbers on Instant Expert. The early market would seem to agree with my shortlist here...

..and if those are the odds I've to play with, Al Agaila is the most obvious E/W option with Bet365 paying four places. As for a winner, there won't be much in it, but I'm hoping Queen Animatu gets towed into it earlier than normal, because I think she's best suited here if not left with too much work to do. 9/2 is probably about right here too.

Zellie is a classy filly who has won at Group 1 in France and was fourth in last year's 100 Guineas and I'd say she was the best horse in the race, but I'd be concerned about her needing a run after six months off. Potapova and Nigiri should both be in the mix, but I don't think they're quite at the level of Zellie/Queen Animatu, but I wouldn't be massively shocked if one or both edged my E/W pick out of the money and with Bet365 paying the first four home, I'm tempted with an E/W saver on Nigiri, especially if she drifts out a little.

Racing Insights, Monday 06/11/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.20 Hereford
  • 3.30 Kempton
  • 4.07 Plumpton
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

The Kempton contest is a Listed race, but only four runners are set to go to post, so 'next best' of those races above is the 3.07 Plumpton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on good to soft ground...

Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, Blade Runner and Tip Top Mountain all won last time out and the latter comes here on a hat-trick having been in great form last season, winning his last two, three from five and four from seven. Shanty Alley is the only one without a win in the recent formline, having suffered eleven consecutive defeats. He has made the frame in five of those defeats (inc 4 x runner-up), but has also failed to finish five of them (1 x UR and 4 xPU)!

Lots of class movement here, as only I See You Well, Ballinsker, Wake Up Early and Midnight Mary ran at Class 3 last time around. Up The Straight and Dom of Mary both drop down from Class 2, but the other seven runners all step up a class here with Kayf Hernando running for the first time since wind surgery and Sublime Heights wears a first-time tongue tie.

Six of the field (I See You Well, Island Run, Wake Up Early, Blade Runner, Sublime Heights and Up The Straight) have had the benefit of a run in the last 13-31 days, but their seven rivals have been off the track for five to seven months, which might be a disadvantage here.

Up The Straight and Ballinsker have both won 2mf chases here at Plumpton, whilst Wouldubewell, Shanty Alley and Midnight Mary have won over similar trips to today at other tracks. I See You Well, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights and Blade Runner are course and distance winners, but Kayf Hernando, Dom of Mary, Wake Up Early and Island Run have won at neither track nor trip, as demonstrated by Instant Expert below...

...where the highlights include Tip Top Mountain's 2 from 3 on good to soft, his 2 from 3 at Plumpton and his 2 from 2 at the trip. I See You Well (5/9), Blade Runner (3/4) and Sublime Heights (3/5) have good records here, whilst those liking this trip include Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, I See You Well, Sublime Heights and Blade Runner all with multiple wins and a strike rate og 50% or higher.

The place stats look like this...

...and after removing any horse with any amber or red boxes, I'd suggest these were the ones best suited/more likely to 'get' the conditions...

Past similar 10+ runner races here at Plumpton have favoured horses held up for a run...

...but we don't have that many in this field, according to the Pace tab, which shows us how this field have approached their last four outings...

...but I'd expect the bottom trio to be close to the back of the pack.

Summary

I think that Wouldubewell, Kayf Hernando, Tip Top Mountain, Sublime Heights, Blade Runner and Island Run are going to be best suited by conditions, but I'm going discount Sublime Heights from that list, due to long losing run and the fact that he's unreliable.

Blade Runner and Tip Top Mountain are the two bringing the best set of recent results to the table and although I think I like the latter more than the former, he might well need the run after 197 days off, whilst the former raced just 24 days ago. With that in mind, I'd be inclined to suggest Blade Runner as the winner here, but his current odds of 4/1 fav aren't particularly generous/attractive, but I'd be happy with 10/1 E/W from Bet365 about Tip Top Mountain.

I'd also expect the 6/1 pair Kayf Hernando & Island Run to be in the shake-up.

Racing Insights, Friday 03/11/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a trio of qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.32 Ffos Las
  • 2.07 Ffos Las
  • 2.13 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Newcastle
  • 3.52 Ffos Las
  • 5.30 Dundalk

...the weather has again decimated my options, but we do have an excellent contest left on that list, so I'm going to look at No Risk Des Flos and the 3.00 Wetherby, an 8-runner, Class 1, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...

Arthur's Quay and Famous Bridge both won their last race, but they're up one and two classes respectively, although the latter comes here on a hat-trick. War Lord and Dubai Days are also up one class here, but the latter did finish as runner-up having won two starts ago. No Risk Des Flos also won two races ago and was third at this grade last time out, whilst Shan Blue, War Lord and Frero Banbou have all been beaten in each of their last seven outings.

None of the field have raced in the last 14 weeks and War Lord runs for the first time since undergoing wind surgery. Frero Banbou is the only one in the field without a win over a similar trip, whilst four horses have won previously here at Wetherby. Shan Blue and No Risk Des Flos are course and distance winners, whilst Famous Bridge's last two runs have both been wins on this track over 2m6f and 3m½f, so he's very much down in trip today. Dubai Day's win here was in a 2m, Class 4 handicap hurdle way back in February 2021 and the entire field's form at today's going, class, tack and trip are documented by Instant Expert...

...where it's good to see a few soft ground successes, although Frero Banbou's 0/4 is a strange one, as his two career wins have been on good to soft and heavy! He has also struggled to win at Class1, as have Shan Blue and War Lord. Our three track winners have clocked up six wins between them over fences and from just nine efforts, so it's not just a case of throwing enough mud at the door to make it stick. Trip-wise, Gloire D'Athon's record is fantastic and he's two from two at Class 2. I'm now going see if he made the frame in those two defeats over this type of trip...

...well, he placed in one of the two and that's a sterling effort. The only two I have reservations about from the above are Frero Banbou (going) and Arthur's Quay (trip).

Twenty-odd similar past races haven't shown a massive pace bias from a win perspective...

...but you'd probably want to be on one that races prominently or even leads and based on the field's most recent efforts...

...I'm not convinced if any/many will want to take it on and we might well get a falsely run race, which I find suits the mid-division type of runner best, as they've less ground to make up than usual.

Summary

With the pace projections hinting that mid-divisional runners might go well and the fact that he's got a great record over this trip, I'm instantly drawn towards Gloire D'Athon. He wasn't at this best at Market Rasen last time out, but he drops back 3f to his preferred type of trip. He gets soft ground and is unexposed at Class 1 (but 2 from 2 at C2) and whilst maybe not an obvious pick, 10/1 with both Bet365 and Hills seems too big to ignore for an E/W bet.

As for a winner, I think I fancy Famous Bridge to continue his fine form and complete a Wetherby hat-trick, he's only up 3lbs for a relatively comfortable win here in March and the 6f drop in trip should help. He's currently 9/2 with both Bet365 & Hills, which is interesting, as I thought he'd be around the 3/1 mark.

Shan Blue is the current 3/1 fav and whilst he has undoubted talent, he hasn't raced since being pulled up last Boxing Day and concedes weight all round. he has been well beaten or failed to complete each of his last five and 3/1 doesn't appeal to me, although a big run wouldn't be a massive surprise.

No Risk Des Flos has obvious appeal based on the H4C report, but he's no E/W pick at 6's, so I'll leave it there. They're the four I see as the main protagonists and I'll back two.

Racing Insights, Thursday 02/11/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.30 Thurles
  • 2.10 Wolverhampton
  • 2.15 Newcastle
  • 2.30 Lingfield
  • 3.15 Thurles
  • 3.30 Stratford

Our free races above are all pretty low grade affairs, so I'm just going to blindly look at the day's highest rated races instead, of which there are four Class 3 contests. I'm happy to swerve the pair of Novice Hurdle contests, leaving me with a 7-runner chase and a 9-runner hurdle. As I do like the odd E/W flutter, I'm going to focus on the latter, which happens to be the 1.55 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m on good to soft/soft ground. More rain is coming, so I expect this to be run on soft ground...

Bottom weight Havaila was a 75-;ength winner of a two-horse race on his last effort over hurdles (April) but has kept sharp with a run on the flat three weeks ago. Hecouldbetheone has been a runner-up in each of his last two and has won two of six, whilst all bar Front View have a win in their most recent form line.

Plenty of class-movers here, as Yorksea, Hecouldbetheone, Believe Jack and Havaila all step up one level and Made For You is up three. Go Dante drops a class and Branson Missouri drops two. This will be handicap debut day for both Believe Jack and Hecouldbetheone and the latter runs for Chris Gordon for the first time since leaving Gary Moore. Front View wears a tongue tie for the first time here, as does top-weight Go Dante.

Yorksea, Front View and Havaila have all had the benefit of a run in the last three weeks, but Made For You, Go Dante and Totterdown have been off for 6-8 months. Branson Missouri returns from a 10-month absence, whilst the handicap debutants Hecouldbetheone and Believe Jack might well need the run after layoffs of 19 and 22 months respectively.

Branson Missouri is the only one of these to have raced here at Lingfield before (2nd of 10, beaten by 8.5 lengths in Nov '22 over 2m3½f) and he's also one of six to have scored over a similar trip to this one, with only Yorksea, Hecouldbetheone and Havaila yet to do so, as documented by Instant Expert...

Not a lot to report upon there, but Go Dante's two soft ground wins are interesting and he ahs won at the trip. Front View and Made For You have poor win records on soft ground, but I think we need some help from the place data...

...which paints a much better picture for many of these, but I'm not sure it helps me narrow the race down, aside from casting Totterdown from the process.

Our Pace Analyser gives us the following data from past similar contests...

...which based on this field's last few outings...

...probably points to Havaila as the prominent runner ready to pounce on the leaders.

Summary

If I'm brutally honest, I'm not getting any strong feeling for this race and my advice would be to leave it and walk away.

The Geegeez ethos is that if there isn't a bet there, don't force one, so I'm declaring this a no bet for me. The early market suggests a 3-horse race...

..and they're probably right, but there's not enough to interest me in any of that trio at 7/2 or shorter and I'm not keen on any of the longer-priced runners. Fingers crossed for a better choice fo race tomorrow!

Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fakenham
  • 2.55 Nottingham
  • 5.45 Kempton
  • 7.15 Kempton
  • 7.45 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two runners to consider...

30-day form..

5-year course form...

...from which, the highest-rated race is the 2.55 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...

Rambuso Creek is our only LTO winner, but Magnificence, Fantasy Master, Punchbowl Flyer and bottom-weight Impressor all had top-3 finishes, In fact, Impressor has made the frame in 11 of his last 12 starts, winning four times. Only Came From The Dark and Punchbowl Flyer are winless in seven or more (12 & 18 actually!)

Spoof, Woolhampton and Punchbowl Flyer are the quickest turned back out after racing against each other nine days ago in a race I covered here at Windsor, which went like this...

...but their rivals have all raced inside the last 40 days, so all should be tuned up for this. Those three from the Windsor race all now drop down a class, as do Came From The Dark and Strong Johnson, but Magnificence, Rambuso Creek and the consistent Impressor all all up a level.

Only Magnificence and Punchbowl Flyer have yet to win over this trip, whilst only Spoof and Fantasy Master have won here at Nottingham with both having scored over course and distance. Mind you, the latter has had a fair few cracks at this venue, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Spoof, Punchbowl Flyer and Impressor would be most at home with the underfoot conditions. Spoof, however, has a poor win record at Class 3, as do Fantasy Master and Ey Up It's Maggie, but none of this field have exactly set the world alight in this grade. Fantasy Master leads Spoof 3-1 in terms of track wins, but has suffered ten defeats here and he's hardly the master over 5f and nor is Woolhampton. With so little green above, I think we need to check place form from those races...

...which don't really aid the Class 3 claims of Spoof or Fantasy Master, whilst Punchbowl Flyer looks a win or nothing type at this level. Fantasy Master's course form, however, looks pretty good now with him making the frame in 4 of his 10 defeats to go with his 3 wins.

I generally don't expect to see much of a pace bias in a medium-sized field over a straight sprint and despite having to make some logical tweaks to the parameters to get a workable data-set, I still think that's there's no huge bias here either...

Yes, those drawn centrally have the slight upper hand in terms of wins, but has the same number of placed runners as the low draw. If anything, I'd say the higher drawn runners had whatever slight advantage there might be to be had. All that said, it's still a sprint and it's usually a case of fastest away has the best chance of making the frame and you can't win if you're not in the frame and if we look back those 90-odd races above, we see...

...that leaders make the frame most often and also go on to win a larger chunk of the races, which might be good news for both Impressor and Punchbowl Flyer from oposite ends of the draw, if they run like they ran last time out...

Obviously there's no guarantees that will happen, of course, but Punchbowl Flyer has lost 18 races in a row and almost broke that run by switching to front-running last time out when only beaten late on by a fairly short favourite. What I'm more certain of, is that Woolhampton, Came From The Dark and Rambuso Creek lack early pace and this could be an issue for them.

Summary

Punchbowl Flyer is on a long losing run, but ran really well last time out. He loves heavy ground, he's down in class and now runs off a dangerously low mark of 76. He's on my shortlist here along with former course and distance winner Fantasy Master, who might not have a great record at Class 3, but has a win and three places from just five efforts at Class 2. He loves it here at Nottingham and should be in the shake-up today.

These are the two I like best here and I suspect there'll not be much between them, but if pushed I'd take the 11/2 Punchbowl Flyer to just about beat the 7/1 Fantasy Master, who is pretty close to E/W territory for me., whilst I wouldn't be too surprised if the similarly 7/1 priced Spoof ran a big race here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 31/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I'm Spartacus, Goobinator and Cold Henry would of the the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 12.20 Curragh
  • 2.25 Bangor
  • 3.30 Bangor
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

And from the two Newcastle races from the free list and the three highlighted shortlist races, we've got Class 4 and Class 5 flat handicaps and A/W handicaps at Class 5 and Class 6 plus a Class 5 Novice race. These are hardly the best races, but I'll go with the highest rated, which sees Goobinator line up in the 2.17 Catterick, a 6-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 1m4f on heavy ground...

GOOBINATOR won back to back 2m½f handicaps on quicker ground than this back in July/September 2021 and hasn't raced since finishing 5th of 12 over 2m½f at Haydock 17 months ago, so might well need the run here. He's 1 from 1 over 1m4f, but most of his running is done over 2m to 2m1f and I fear this might be too sharp for him today, but he is down two classes from that last run.

REEL ROSIE stayed on really well to land a heavy ground 1m2½f handicap at Chester at the end of September, but was well beaten on soft ground next/last time out a fortnight ago. She's relatively untested on ground worse than good (1 win from 3) with most of her racing (12 starts) on good or good to firm ground. Only female in the race.

DARK JEDI won over today's trip at Ripon back in 2021, but is winless in fourteen starts since landing a Class 2, heavy ground 1m6½f handicap at Doncaster just over a year ago. He now runs off a mark some 16lbs lower than that win and could well be dangerously handicapped here, although he's only a pound lower than when a runner-up beaten by 6.5 lengths over this course and distance 10 days ago, struggling late on.

ANIMATO was a runner-up over this trip at Pontefract three starts ago and was third of nine at York last time out over an extended 2m on soft ground. He's back down in trip here and takes a drop in class whilst wearing a visor for the first time

GENESIUS won over this trip at Thirsk on soft ground just over four months ago and has made the first three home on each of his last three outings, including once over course and distance. He wasn't well positioned at Wolverhampton last time out and had to squeeze through a gap to run on for third, going down by a length and a quarter. Would have been closer with a clearer run.

GASTRONOMY is a ten-race maiden who has made the frame just once and was last of 5 in a 1m6f, soft-ground handicap at this course just over five weeks ago. He has been eased three more pounds (now 10lbs lower than April!) here and wears a tongue tie for the first time, but I fear he'll need more help than that.

Instant Expert says...

...that half of the field are untried on heavy ground, but Reel Rosie & Dark Jedi have won on it. Goobinator is the pick of the pack at this grade, but four of them do have reasonable records. Dark Jedi probably has the best overall make-up based on place stats, but his actual win record a this trip is a concern.

To get enough workable data from the draw analyser, I've had to open up the parameters somewhat, but in a logical manner and whilst there's not a huge pace bias (as you'd expect over such a trip with a small field)...

...those drawn highest have had a slight advantage, although I suspect race tactics aka pace will be the deciding feature here, so let's check the pace analyser for those races above...

Leaders do as well as expected (A/E = 1.00), but the prominent runner looks the one to be on, possibly picking the winner off late on. What is clear is that a prominent runner is more than twice as likely to win than a runner from further back. The way these runners have approached their most recent outings...

...suggests that Reel Rosie might well be afforded a soft/easy lead with the rest of the field fairly well bunched together, but if we apply our field's draw and running styles to out pace/draw heat map...

...it looks like the three main protagonists might be Genesius, Animato and Dark Jedi.

Summary

From the pace/draw heat map above we had Genesius, Animato and Dark Jedi and the latter was the pick of the bunch on Instant Expert. He might well be on a long losing run, but ran well last time out and is off a dangerous mark. this looks a poor contest that shouldn't take too much winning, so I'll side with Dark Jedi here. He's the current 5/2 fav with Hills and that's probably fair.

The only runner higher than Reel Rosie's 7/1 ticket is the 20/1 Gastronomy and I don't really fancy either for a place, as I think the bookies have it right when they say it'll be tight between Genesius (7/2) and Animato (4/1) and this ties in well with our pace/draw heat map.

Racing Insights, Monday 30/10/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.15 Huntingdon
  • 1.25 Leicester
  • 1.45 Galway
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 4.10 Huntingdon
  • 4.20 Leicester

...and the 'best' on paper of the trio of UK races above, looks like being the middle one, the 3.35 Huntingdon, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

General Medrano and In The Air both won last time out and Rose Sea Has and Generous Day were both runners-up, although both have won one of their last five, whilst Sea Prince and Out On The Tear are winless in five and six respectively.

None of these ran at this grade last time out with all bar Sea Prince (who drops down from Class 2) stepping up a class from Class 4. There's no new headgear on show and no horses have moved yards recently. General Medrano and Rose Sea Has both have the benefit of a run three weeks ago, finishing 1st and 2nd nine lengths apart at Uttoxeter. Sea Prince ran two months ago, but the other three have all been off the track for over five months.

Relevant NH & specific chase form is highlighted via Instant Expert...

Despite, there being a fair bit of red on the going column, most of these do have some form on good to soft. Rose Sea Has appears to have struggled at Class 3, but all do have some wins/places at similar trips to this one. If we drill down to just chase form...

...we obviously have less data to work with and Rose Sea Has' Class 3 form is repeated here, but he'll be fine on good to soft ground. Out On The Tear is well suited by the trip, especially from a place perspective.

Monday's free feature is the PACE tab and our pace analyser tool says that horses who lead in small field, short distance Huntingdon chases are the ones to be with...

and by clicking the PACE tab, we can see how these horses have raced in their last four outings...

...it looks like the pace is going to come from Rose Sea Has, Generous Day and Sea Prince.

Summary

The odds on favourite General Medrano looks like being the horse to beat based on the way he comfortably won on his chasing debut three weeks ago, beating Rose Sea Has by nine lengths. The latter is now 9lbs better off with the winner and a similar run from him could get him closer this time.

The only other one with a relatively recent run is Sea Prince and although he drops in class here, he hasn't been in the best of form and I'm wary of backing the other trio who might well need the run.

General Medrano may well be the one to beat, but odds of 10/11 don't float my boat as my pockets aren't deep enough to make a bet worthwhile, so if I was to have a bet here, it'd be a small E/W play on Rose Sea Has, who trades at 15/2 in the very early market.

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/10/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Newbury
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.39 Kelso
  • 4.29 Kelso
  • 4.45 Cheltenham
  • 6.00 Chelmsford

There's a card full of Class 2 races at Jumps HQ and whilst there are more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, I'm going to see if I can highlight any potential E/W bets (Bookies are paying 4 & 5 places) in the 2.25 Cheltenham, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1f (+88yds) on good/good to soft ground...

If we start with what the card tells us, we see that Quick Draw and Whacker Clan both won last time out and that Twig comes here seeking a hat-trick. He, like bottom-weight Swapped, has three wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings, whilst top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has twelve consecutive top-three finishes including seven wins, whereas Mister Fogpatches is winless in eleven and Yes Indeed is an eight-race maiden.

Hidden Heroics has had wind surgery since he last ran some 162 days ago, whilst Wayfinder has been off for 229 days and has also undergone a wind op during that time. Lord Accord won this race last year and he's the only previous course and distance winner in the field, but Kinondo Kwetu, Twig, Brief Times, Undersupervision, Wayfinder, Snapped and Hidden Heroics have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere with the latter named being the only other previous Cheltenham winner, having landed a Class 3 handicap novice chase over 3m2f last December, as included below in Instant Expert...

Top-weight Kinondo Kwetu has never been to HQ before, but ticks plenty of boxes otherwise in a promising-looking graphic with quite a bit of green championing the causes of Twig, Lord Accord, Hidden Heroics, Wayfinder and Swapped. The Wolf is the one who looks least suited by expected conditions and we know that Yes Indeed has failed to win all eight career starts, but the graphic below says he does have some place form at least...

...but he's still way down my list of possibles that continues to be headed by Kinindo Kwetu. He tends to bide his time in mid-division to come for a late run and if we look at how the entire field have approached their last few races, I suspect the early pace will come from the likes of Hidden Heroics, Whacker Clan and Swapped...

There's no out and out hold-up horse on that graphic, but deeper digging says that those two recent prominent runs from The Wolf are out of character and he usually races in the rear, so he and Mister Fogpatches will probably be the early back-markers over a course and distance that doesn't really have a huge course bias...

...as we've all watched numerous Cheltenham Festival 3m+ chases and seen winners from the front, middle and back. Cheltenham is a true test in my opinion and those best suited to conditions are the ones who tend to do best.

Summary

With the lack of a draw in NH racing and little pace bias to work from, we revert back to form and ability/suitability to the task and the ones ticking the boxes for me in that respect are Kinondo Kwetu, Twig and Quick Draw with honourable mentions for the likes of Swapped.

In a big field like this, I tend to either not get involved or just look for some E/W action and with all bookies paying at least four places (5 at PP/Sky!), there should be some scope for us here. To be honest, I'd be happy to back all four on an E/W basis if the price was right.

Quick Draw is borderline at 15/2, but Kinondo Kwetu and Twig are priced at 12's and 9's respectively and this pair have got great chances in my eyes.

Swapped is completely unfancied by the market and you can get 33/1 for 5 places and whilst this is a tougher assignment than he has faced so far, his form over fences (21112) is excellent and he receives weight all round. It'd be a bit of a shock if he won, but he could well take a top five position if things fall his way.

Racing Insights, Friday 27/10/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier, who'll hope to be on the right track (sorry!)...

...this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 3.55 Cheltenham
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 5.05 Cheltenham
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton
  • 7.45 Wolverhampton

My sole H4C report qualifier looks like being involved in a fairly competitive affair despite the low standard, so let's take a look at On The Right Track and the 7.15 Wolverhampton. It's a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners here, but featured runner On The Right Track has made the frame in three of his last four and is the only runner to have won any of their last seven starts (aside from Ezmerellda, who has only raced five times so far, failing to place in any). Elsewhere Doublethetrouble and Lord Torranga have been knocking on the door with a string of runner-up finishes, whilst Zivaniya also made the frame on his last outing.

He now drops down from Class 5, as do On The Right Track, Haven Lady and Eagle's Realm with bottom-weight Northern Rose dropping two classes for her second run in a handicap. She's one of four (Zivaniya, Ezmerellda & Corsican Caper being the other) three year olds in the field and they all receive a 7lb weight allowance for their age.

The majority of the field are wearing some form of headgear/equipment, but this is a first time in cheekpieces for the in-form Lord Torranaga who, like On The Right Track and Kittens Dream, is a former Wolverhampton winner with the latter being our only previous course and distance winner, although Lord Torranaga has won over 1m6f at Catterick.

No excuses for fitness today, as all have had at least two weeks rest, but none should be rusty either, as they've all raced in the last four weeks, whilst relative past form (courtesy of Instant Expert, of course) looks like this...

...which On The Track aside is a pretty bleak picture. Kittens Dream and Havens Lady have had the most attempts to put numbers on the board, but both seem totally unsuited to this task ahead, so I'm crossing their names off straightaway from a win perspective. The above graphic pretty much speaks for it self, but I should add that despite a 0 from 8 record at Class 6 on the A/W, Lord Torranaga has three wins and two further places from nine at Class 5 and as you'll now see below, has a 50% place strike rate in those eight Class 6 defeats...

...and he now looks a viable rival to On The Right Track. They'll race fairly close together in stalls 6 and 8 of 10 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn highest in the past...

..but those races haven't been particularly kind to front-runners...

...which looks like being another blow to Haven Lady's chances if the last three races are anything to go by...

Summary

After looking at Instant Expert and the draw stats, the two I'd want to be with would be On The Right Track, who is proven at this venue, and Lord Torranaga who has been banging on the door for some time. The pace stats have done little to dissuade me from this position and I'm sticking with those two.

I suspect there'll be very little between them and I'd expect both to be priced around the 9/2 to 5/1 mark in a fairly open market and if pushed to pick a winner, I'm going to marginally side with my H4C report runner On the Right Track.

Without any prices to go at, it's hard to suggest an E/W punt, but I'd expect Doublethetrouble to continue his recent fine form and be the main danger to the other two.

Racing Insights, Thursday 26/10/23

/in /by

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.05 Lingfield
  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 5.11 Ludlow
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

The highest rated of those four that have survived the weather is the 3.20 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

Only three of this field, Malangen, Thereisnodoubt and Well Educated have had the benefit of a relatively recent run, but the rest of the field have been out of action for 124 to 598 days. Thereisnodoubt is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Well Educated and Russian Virtue were both in the frame on their last outings.

Well Educated, however, is the only runner in the field without a win in their last three races, as he has been beaten in each of his last eight starts since a purple patch from April to October last year which saw him finish 1213111, elevating his mark from 98 to 118. He now runs off 100, so it's form rather than weight keeping him out of the winners' enclosure, I'd have thought.

That last win of his was in this very race making him the sole course (and course/distance) winner in this field, whilst all bar Gardener, Golden Glance and Holly have scored over a similar trip elsewhere. Of that trio yet to win at the trip, Gardener and Golden Glance now run in a handicap for only the second time and the latter drops two classes to run here, whilst the former is up a level, as are Grain D'Oudairies (handicap debut today), Russian Virtue and LTO heavy-ground winner Thereisnodoubt.

Thereisnodoubt has actually won 3 times from 8 starts on heavy ground and has made the frame in 2 of his 5 defeats, but Instant Expert suggests today's going might not be soft enough for him...

...and Voix de Reve also looks unsuited by the underfoot conditions. Russian Virtue looks to be the one who'll relish good to soft/soft ground the most with a 50% win record, but Moonlight Glory will prefer it to dry a little whilst Malangen would want more rain. Well Educated's sole Class 3 win came in this race last year and Malangen is winless in five, but most of them to have tackled the trip have done OK. Only Well Educated runs off a lower mark than their last handicap success.

The place stats to go with those races above look like this...

...where quite a few of them will want the ground to soften up further and on the basis of the above, Russian Virtue has to be of interest for the frame whilst Voix du Reve looks the weakest.

Previous similar races in the past here at Carlisle have seen those setting the pace do quite well, but they have sometimes been vulnerable to being picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners in the past...

...but anywhere in the upper reaches of the pace chart would be a good starting point in my opinion and based on the field's recent runs...

...LTO winner Thereisnodoubt looks set to contest the early lead with Gardener, whilst the hold-up tactics generally employed by Voix du Reve would appear to be yet another nail in the coffin for his chances of winning here.

Summary

If we start with the pace chart, Thereisnodoubt won last time out and has had a recent run. He'd definitely prefer softer ground, but it has been wet in the North again today. Gardener was well beaten on his handicap debut nine months ago and hasn't been seen since.

Jante Law is certain to need a run after 598 days off, I know he won his penultimate outing, but that was some 30 months ago, having unseated his rider on his sole run last year. Malangen is a consistent enough sort off marks in the high 80's to low/mid 90's, but looks to be carrying too much here off 100.

Grain D'Oudairies won on hurdles debut, before tiring late on in a 2m3½f contest here at Carlisle back in April. The drop in trip should help him and after just three career outings (1 x NHF, 2 x Hrd), he's certainly unexposed and Well Educated won this race last last year from his usual mid-division/prominent running position. He was in great form this time last year, but had toiled since then until a drop in mark of late saw him make the frame at Bangor and Cartmel in August.

Of those mentioned above, I'm not really interested in Gardener, Jante Law or Malangen, but that still leaves three under consideration plus Russian Virtue due to his Instant Expert scores.

I do like Thereisnodoubt, but I've concerns about the going and a 4lb rise in weight and with that in mind, I don't think 11/2 offers much value. Grain D'Oudairies is the current favourite at 10/3 with Bet365 (just 11/4 with Hills) and whilst he might well be the one to beat, he's unproven and the price is too skinny for me.

As for Russian Virtue and Well Educated, they are both currently available at 12's and I think that a small E/W bet on either (or both) would be my way forward here. I'm not convinced either have what's needed to win this, but both are more than capable of making the frame, especially with Betfred, Coral & Sky paying four places.

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