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Racing Insights, Thursday 18/01/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.50 Wincanton
  • 1.20 Chelmsford
  • 1.35 Newcastle
  • 2.50 Fairyhouse

No jumps racing on Thursday and the sole remaining free race is a poor-looking Class 6 affair. In fact the whole Chelmsford card consists of 2 x Class 5 and 4 x Class 6. There's an evening meeting at Southwell, though, and this has 2 x Class 5 and 5 x Class 6 plus the race I'm going to look at : the 6.30 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m3f on standard tapeta...

The consistent (six top 3 finishes on the bounce) Qaasid was a runner-up last time out and bottom-weight Tiger Beetle was third on his last run, but we've no LTO winners and three of these (Barenboim, Howth & Furzig) have lost at least seven consecutive outings.

Top-weight Valsad makes his yard debut for Jamie Osborne and drops down a class to run here, as do Barenboim, Queen of Ipanema (1st time in cheekpieces), Cavern Club and Furzig. The fast-finishing bottom-weight Tiger Beetle steps up in class, though, as does Tenerife Sunshine, whilst Haveyoumissedme is noted as another fast finisher.

Valsad and Cavern Club have both been rested for just over three months and it's well over six months since Qaasid was turned out. The remainder have, however, all raced in the last month or so. If we go back to Qaasid, we see that he's our sole course and distance winner, but Valsad has also won at this track, landing a £52k, Class 2, 1m4f handicap three starts ago, He has also won over a similar trip to this one elsewhere, as have Barenboim, Cavern Club and Tenerife Sunshine.

Past relevant form is highlighted via Instant Expert, of course...

...and as seems to be the case right now, it's a pretty mixed bag. Queen of Ipanema has a great A/W strike rate, of course, but Qaasid and Sonnerie Power have both won just 1 in 7 on standard going. Barenboim has struggled to win at Class 3, whilst this trip hasn't managed to get Tiger Beetle or Howth to win any of 22 combined starts, whilst Qaasid is just 2 from 13.

We do know, however, that Qaasid is a bit better than the above stats might suggest, as he's a consistent/regular placer as shown by the place stats, where he suddenly looks like a force to be reckoned with...

...although his consistency is pushing him up the weights and he's now 8lbs higher than his last win and Cavern Club also finds himself in a similar predicament at 9lbs above his last win.

The tapeta track is relatively new here at Southwell and over similar distances with a similar field size, there doesn't to be much (if any) advantage to be gained from the draw...

...as leaders tend to win more often, but make the frame less often, whilst from a pace perspective it has paid to avoid front-runners...

...which might not be good news for Valsad if he forced to take up the running in the absence of a true front-runner...

...whilst the pace/draw heat map suggests high-drawn hold-up horses have done well, but not as well as the low-drawm prominent horse...

...and if we translate this data to our racecard...

...Queen of Ipanema is probably our high-drawn hold-up type and Qaasid our low-drawn prominent runner.

Summary

Queen of Ipanema has a great A/W strike rate and scoresd well on Instant Expert and on pace/draw and at 8/1 with Hills (5.45pm Wednesday), I think she's a good E/W prospect, especially with four places being available.

Qaasid is a regular placer who scored well on the place side of Instant Expert. He also fills the pace/draw role as low-drawn prominent and whilst he's not a regular winner, he's a reliable sort to make the frame and had he been a little longer than 13/2, I've have been tempted into another E/W bet.

As for a winner, you could make a case for a handful of these and none really stand out for me, so I'll leave that well alone, but leave you with the thought that the 9/1 Caver Club might be one for the frame too.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/01/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 12.50 Newbury
  • 2.10 Southwell
  • 3.05 Newbury
  • 3.20 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated some runners from in-form yards to consider...

14-day form...

30-day form...

Sadly, the weather is playing havoc with racing again, so I'm going ignore all those races above and focus upon the All-Weather action. Sadly that's just a mix of Class 5/6 racing, but the most valuable of them is the 3.30 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a  straight mile on standard tapeta...

No LTO winners on display, which isn't unusual at Class 6, but Cheese The One was a one-length runner-up here over 7f on her last run just under a fortnight ago. Most of the field are winless in at least seven races, but Intoxicata won seven races ago and has placed in five of her six defeats since then, so she's still going relatively well.
The other 'recent' winner is Child Of Lir, who won five races ago, but at 75 days off is the longest rested of this group. Possible Ambition returns from a break of almost six weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last fortnight with the bottom three on the card all featuring in the same 7f contest here 13 days ago...

All eight raced at Class 6 last time out and we've no new headgear/equipment or changes of yards to report. Intoxicata, Indrapura Star and Heartlander have yet to win at either track or trip, but Cheese The One won here over 6f back in September 2022, whilst Possible Ambition, Reclaim Victory, Child of Lir and Pop Favorite have all scored over course and distance, as shown in a pretty sorry looking Instant Expert...

...where Child of Lir's sole career win (Class 5, course and distance here last September) provides the only bit of green. Intoxicata has a few Class 6 A/W wins on standard going and is largely untested at track/trip and Pop Favorite has a reasonable record, but I'm hoping to glean a little more from the place stats...

Those who follow this column will know that any red on the place stats for going/class/course/distance are a no-no for me when nit comes to looking for a winner, but I'm happy to ignore Intoxicata's sole track effort and Child of Lir's two Class 6 defeats in the knowledge that he did win over this course and distance at Class 5, but I'll be discounting Possible Ambition, Cheese The One, Indrapura Star and Heartlander from my win considerations. I know the last pair haven't had many chances, but they were both well behind Cheese The One last time out and if I can't back CTO, I can't back the other two!

This leaves me with runners in stalls 1, 2, 4 and 6 over a course and distance that shows little draw bias, which is what I'd expect over a straight mile on an artificial surface...

The Pace Analysis from those races does however give us something to work with, as those racing prominently or setting the pace have done a little better than those positioned further back in the pack...

Sadly, we don't seem to have a front-runner in our field, but Intoxicata, Child of Lir and Cheese The One all raced prominently last time out...

...so it's quite possible they'll set the tempo here.

Summary

Off what limited evidence we have above, the one I like best is Intoxicata in a pretty open-looking contest. She's consistent (2 wins and 6 places from her last 10), she survived the Instant Expert cut and is expected to be up with the pace. I wrote this piece earlier than usual on Tuesday, so I've no prices to work from, but I'd take her at hopefully 10/3 or bigger here.

Cheese The One ran well here last time out and should relish the extra furlong and be involved again, but she's going to be far too short for an E/W play and I could make a case for most of the others to make the frame, but that defeats the object of the column, I suppose.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/01/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where neither generate obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for this Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.15 Plumpton
  • 2.50 Dundalk
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 5.10 Dundalk

I'm not a big fan of Irish A/W racing and that Plumpton race is a Novice affair, so I'll swerve that. There is, however, a veterans staying chase on the same card which might be interesting, so let's have a quick look at the 2.25 Plumpton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 10yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed trip of what will be just over 3m2½f after rail movements on largely good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but Iconoc Muddle and Trincomalee were runners-up. Mind you, I'm not sure the latter's run is too relevant as he hasn't raced for some 635 days since that effort and only Commanche Red (682 days) has been away longer and you'd have to think these guys would need the run.

Elsewhere only I See You Well, Shanty Alley and Burrows Park are winless in seven (8, 13 and 8 to be exact), whilst both Domaine de L'isle and Juniper have failed to finish three of their last four, although the latter had won his previous three!

Domaine de L'isle is actually down two classes here, but I See You Well is up a level, despite his losing run. We know that two of the field haven't raced in 21 months or longer, but aside from Juniper's three month absence, the remainder have all raced in the last four weeks, so most should be race ready for a race where only Iconic Muddle and Commanche Red have yet to win over a similar trip, but both have won on this track before, as has Trincomalee, whilst I See You Well is 2 from 2 over course and distance and 3 from 4 over 3m2f here with Instant Expert looking like this...

...where I See You Well has the best set of figures and the most concerns surround Shanty Alley at class/trip, although none of these exactly set the world alight, even from a place perspective...

From a pace perspective, you're probably going to want to be on a horse that's relatively keen to get on with things...

and I suspect that Burrows Park and Shanty Alley will attempt to set the tone of the race...

...if their last four runs are anything to go by.

Summary

The two horses I like most are Iconic Muddle after his most recent run and I See You Well based on Instant Expert, but neither have a great pace profile for this contest. That said, those who head the pace charts fall down on other areas; Burrows Park is winless in 8 and has no form under these conditions, whilst Shanty Alley looked the worst on Instant Expert and has won just 2 of 22 over fences.

Juniper and Domaine de L'isle have been pulled up in three of their last four, whilst Commanche Red and Trincomalee will probably need the run which brings me back to Iconic Muddle and I See You Well, having found reasons not to back the other six, which is sometimes how it works.

I See You Well was available at 11/1 at 5.55pm on Monday and that could be a nice E/W price about a horse who loves it here at Plumpton (6 wins from 13 overall), whilst Iconic Muddle would be my preferred winner and 4/1 seems fair.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/01/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 12.50 Lingfield
  • 12.55 Punchestown
  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

It's not a great day of racing in the UK, with twenty-eight of the thirty races rated as Class 5 or 6 alongside a pair of Class 4's at Hereford. Of the three free UK racecards, the latter seems to have the greatest spread of pace profiles (more on this shortly), so we're off to the 4.30 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

None of these managed to win last time out, in fact none of them have won any of their last seven outings. Hawajes, Billy Mcgarry and Vivency have all lost nine in a row, but the other five are on longer losing runs that than, although Big Narstie was a runner-up (beaten by a neck) last week and Rebel Redemption was a runner-up beaten by 0.75 lengths on Boxing Day with Say Grace in third a further half length back.

The field all carry 9-9 here, which means that Big Narstie and Vivency (both rated 50) are best off at the weights, but the lowest-rated horses, Fragrance and Say Grace are only assessed as vbeing 6lbs worse.

All six raced at Class 6 last time out and all bar Fragrance (off 122 days ) and Vivency (199 days) have raced in the last four weeks. Merry Secret and Vivency have both already won over today's trip elsewhere and Rebel Redemption is a two-time victor over 6f on this track, but only the 5yr old mare Say Grace has won over course and distance, when landing a Class 6 seller 48 weeks ago.

As you'd expect, there's not much to see on the win side of Instant Expert...

...but Big Narstie probably shades it, whilst Say Grace looks the pick on the place stats...

In similar races here at Wolverhampton over the last five years, horses drawn in stalls 3 to 6 seem to have fared best from a draw perspective, whilst those racing prominently have fared best from the pace side of the equation.

And this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map for those races...

...which shows the importance of pace. We know that Say Grace, Billy Mcgarry, Big Narstie and Hawajes will occupy stalls 3 to 6, but who will race prominently? Well,that's where the featyre of the day, the Pace tab comes into its own, as we can show you at a glance how any field has approached its last four races and for this race, it looks like this...

...where Rebel Redemption looks like the front-runner with Say Grace and Billy Mcgarry the prominent chasers, although Big Narstie also has two prominent runs from his last three, incluing LTO which was the best run by any of these runners for a very long time!

We can put those runners into draw order as follows...

...which puts Hawajes as the weakest of the four occupying the best draw.

Summary

Big Narstie comes here off the best recent run of the field, he's likely to race prominently again and has a decent draw. He is however, an 11/10 shot at 7.30pm on Sunday evening and for a horse with little experience of Wolverhampton and on a long losing run, too short for my liking. You'd need deep pockets and plenty of resilience to make decent money from such a bet.

Don't get me wrong, he's probably the one to beat, but I'm more keen on taking the 17/2 about Say Grace on an E/W basis, I just feel that's better value for me, whilst the 10/1 offered by Bet365 about Billy Mcgarry might prove to be generous.

Racing Insights, Friday 12/01/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have produced a couple of A/W qualifiers...

...whilst this daily feature is, as always, supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.50 Huntingdon
  • 3.07 Sedgefield
  • 7.15 Dundalk
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

It's not the best race in the world (or even on the card!), but it makes sense to try and 'marry up' the daily free feature with the daily free cards, so we're going to look at Hollie Doyle's mount, English Spirit in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

ENGLISH SPIRIT ended an 8-race losing spell with a course and distance success here last time out a couple of months ago, taking his career A/W record to 3 wins from 4 places from 17. Only up 2lbs for the win

LUNARSCAPE is noted as being a fast finisher and now ears cheekpieces for the first time in what will be just her second outing for her current yard, having finished third here over a furlong longer just over a fortnight ago. Has placed 223 in her last three, but is winless in nine.

SURPRISE PICTURE has won over both 6f and 7f at this track, but is winless in seven since his 7f success back in September. Now 2lbs lower than that win, so could be dangerous.

ADMIRAL NELSON won at Newcastle (7f) two starts/a month ago after six indifferent defeats, but failed to back up that return to form when only 8th of 10 at Southwell three days before Christmas. Now goes beyond a mile for the first time in his 26-race career.

PEMBROKESHIRE won over 7f at Musselburgh in mid-October, but has only finished 7th of 10 and then 6th of 7 in two runs over a mile on Newcastle's tapeta track since. He has failed to make the frame in any of seven A/W runs to date and others look a better option.

MR BOSON is a five-race maiden (2 x flat, 3 x A/W) and hasn't raced since May of last year, when just 11th of 13, beaten by over 12 lengths a 1m handicap at Windsor. probably best left watched here.

ASGARD'S CAPTAIN is the other LTO winner in the pack having produced a career-best run to land a 7-runner handicap over 1m1f at Musselburgh on quick ground last August. He's up 14lbs here, up one class and without a run in 20 weeks, this might be best left as a watching brief on his first run for new handler Dylan Cunha.

KINGWELL is our other C&D winner in the field, having scored here at Class 6 11 months ago. He's up in class today and hasn't won any of six since that C&D triumph last February. Was fourth of six over track and trip last time out and a similar run won't be good enough here either.

Past relevant form courtesy of Instant Expert looks like this...

...which paints a pretty bleak picture, doesn't it? I know these are Class 5/6 runners, so i wasn't expecting much, but featured horse English Spirit aside, only Surprise Picture makes much appeal, especially at 2lbs below his last win. I think we're going to need the place stats...

These do at least suggest that the field are pretty familiar with the task in hand and whilst they've not been prolific winners, they have made the frame on several occasions. My usual reaction to a graphic like the above would be to remove Admiral Nelson, Pembrokeshire and Mr Boson from my deliberations.

In previous past races, it seems that a higher draw has been more beneficial than a low one...

...which is great news for English Spirit but another blow for Admiral Nelson, who didn't fare too well on Instant Expert. If we then look at how those 300+ races above were won...

...we see that those setting the tempo do very well, but the stalking prominent runners have an even better record of picking the leaders off late on, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...suggest that Kingwell will be that pace-maker who could then become vulnerable to the likes of English Spirit and Mr Boson, whilst we should also remember that Lunarscape was noted as a fast finisher. She might well be left with too much work to do, but if things drop right, she'll be aiming for the places late on.

Summary

English Spirit has a great record here at Wolverhampton, as documented by the H4C report, he comes here off the back of a win and was the eye-catcher on Instant Expert. He seems to have the plum high draw and the ideal prominent running style to win here again and I'm struggling to see who might beat him. he currently (4.50pm) trades at 3/1, which is actually a little longer than I thought he might be, so that's good news.

Asgards Captain is the 5/2 fav and that seems a bit short for a horse making a yard debut up 14lb, up one class and without a run in 20 weeks, so he's not for me. I suspect Lunarscape will go well here, having made the frame in each of her last three. She finishes well but might come from too far off the pace. She's good for the frame, I think but probably not the win.

I generally want 8/1 or bigger before I place an E/W bet and with that in mind, if i was to have one here, Surprise Picture might fit the bill, now that he's 2lbs lower than his last win here, but I wouldn't be digging too deep into my pockets for that one.

I'm at a family event from 2pm Friday, so no column for Saturday's racing, I'm afraid. Back Sunday with a preview of a race for Monday, so have a great weekend.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/01/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 12.55 Southwell
  • 1.00 Clonmel
  • 2.20 Fontwell
  • 3.05 Catterick

Neither UK option above enthuses me too much, but we do have an interesting looking race to cover in the 2.30 Catterick, an 8-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m6f on soft ground...

Bushypark won this race on heavy ground by 3.5 lengths last year and comes into having won last time out, as do Court At Slip and Crixus's Escape. Court At Slip has won three of his last six and Bushypark is two from six, whilst Ladronne and Glittering Love are both winless in ten starts and Shadows In The Sky is a six-race maiden.

Bushypark and Ladronne both raced at Class 3 last time out, but the other six all step up at least one class with the bottom two on the card, Crixus's Escape and Shadows In The Sky both making a double step up. Bushypark and Shadows In The Sky are the only two runners without any headgear or tongue ties and half of this field are already 10yrs old or more.

The entire field has raced in the last two to four weeks, so all should be race-ready. Bushypark's success in this race last year not only makes the sole course and distance winner, but also the only one to have won at this trip. Elsewhere, only Ladronne has won on this track and that was a 3m1f chase way back in mid-November 2022 and was the last time he won a race (he's now a pound lighter that run).

More race-relevant stats can be found via feature of the day, Instant Expert...

...where last year's winner Bushypark is the early eye-catcher. No Cruise Yet and Glittering Love have decent soft ground records and the former has also won a couple of stayers' chases, whilst the latter's 0 from 9 at Class 3 is a bit of a concern. Court At Slip is largely untested under these conditions, but did win over 3m3½f on soft ground last March.

From a place perspective...

Bushypark again catches the eye off a fairly small sample size, but I'm drawn to No Cruise Yet on that data, because of the larger number of runs. The issue there seems to be a record of just one placed finish from four at Class 3, which would be a concern to be if I didn't that he'd had three races at Class 2 and finished 132 in those three, so he shouldn't be outclassed here.

This pair are highly likely to be up with the pace, especially Bushypark, who doesn't seem to run any other way if his last four runs are anything to go by...

...and the report of last year's race said..."jumped well throughout, made all, ridden and ran on"...

He is however, some 5lbs higher than his last/highest winning mark and he concede chunks of weight all round, but our pace analyser suggests his front-running style is the way to go here.

Summary

There's a lot to like about Bushypark's chances of winning this race for a second time on the bounce, but I fear that fellow pace-maker No Cruise Yet might well stalk and ultimately outstay him.

If these two do battle and take too much out of each other, that could open the door for the third horse on the pace chart, Court At Slip to get involved too.

This could well be a fairly tight contest as 3m6f soft ground chases go, but these are the three I'd want to focus on and if pushed to put one slightly ahed of the others, I think I'd side with No Cruise Yet.

All three are sadly sub-6/1 in the 5.30pm market, so I've no E/W selection today.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/01/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 12.20 Doncaster
  • 12.50 Doncaster
  • 2.50 Leicester

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and I think we'll have a look at Tom Lacey's 7 yr old gelding Cruz Control in the 2.00 Doncaster, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively 2m5f after rail movements on good to soft that might be a little softer in places...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between featured horse Cruz Control and Raffle Ticket, but let's take a closer look at the information available to us starting with recent form, where in the absence of an LTO winner, the runner-up finishes by the horses already mentioned are the best recent results.

Both horses have won two of their last seven, as have Hitching Jacking, Nothin To Ask and Getway Luv, whilst One Fine Man is three from seven and Demachine & Ubetya are both 1 from 7, with only Dreams of Home winless, although he did win 8 and 9 races ago and he was actually 6 from 11 prior to his last seven runs/defeats.

Joint top weight Demachine drops two classes here after three unplaced Class 1 efforts and Nothin To Ask is down one class, whilst it's a first run in new equipment for both Hitching Jacking (cheekpieces) and featured runner, Cruz Control (tongue tie).

Demachine is also the only one without a run on the last nine weeks or so, as he returns from a nine month absence, so it's possible he's going to need the run today but he has at least won a race over a similar trip to this one with only Dreams of Home, One Fine Man and Getaway Luv yet to do so, but only Nothin To Ask has won here at Doncaster before, having landed a Class 3, 2m3f, handicap novice chase here back in November 2022, as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where only Ubetya's record at the trip looks a cause for concern. Dreams of Home's poor run of form is highlighted by him now being 11lbs lower in the ratings than his last win.

In the past, this type of race has suited the front-running types...

...which, based on this field's most recent efforts would appear to be yet more good news for the in-form featured runner Cruz Control...

...but not quite so good for rival Raffle Ticket.

Summary

Short, but hopefully sweet today. I started with the initial thought that this might well be a two-horse race between featured horse Cruz Control and Raffle Ticket and no other horse has really forced themselves into that equation. Both are in good form, of course and both look a better standard than the others, but Cruz Control's front-running could be the difference here.

In which case, I'll take the 3/1 (Hills, as of 3.50pm) Cruz Control to beat the 13/2 (almost E/W territory!) Raffle Ticket.

Demachine might well be the best of the rest dropping in class, but I think 10/3 is pretty short about a horse with no run in nine months, no win since May '22 and just the one win since the end of November 2020! I don't think there's an E/W bet for me here, but current 18/1 outsider One Fine Man could outrun his odds, having finished 21137 in his five starts over fences in 2023.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/01/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Autumn Return is of obvious immediate interest. I suspect he'll be a fairly warm favourite in a 6-runner contest, so I'm grateful that as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.55 Exeter
  • 1.55 Exeter
  • 2.10 Market Rasen

The abandonment of Exeter has left us a bit thin on the ground and the free race at Market Rasen is only a 5-runner Class 3 affair, so we'll head to the relative safety of the A/W for the day's highest-rated race, the 7.00 Southwell, a 13-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Doctor Khan Junior is our sole LTO winner and he has won four of his last six. Intervention was a runner-up on his last outing after four consecutive victories, whilst Greatgadian, Zip, Chuzzlewit, Follow Your Heart, Gulliver and Starshiba have all won at least one of their last seven.

Stone Soldier, the fast-finishing Gulliver and Stashiba are all up one class here, whilst the in-form duo of Intervention & Doctor Khan Junior both step up two levels for a race that sees the out of sorts Trumble make a second debut for David Loughnane, after two runs away in Ireland for Claire O'Connell.

Only Excel Power and Greatgadian have yet to win over 7f, whilst Lord of the Lodge, Stone Soldier, Intervention and Zip have all scored over course and distance. Gulliver's 7f wins have been at Lingfield (A/W) and at York on the Flat, but he's 2 from 2 here over 6f and this is shown on the stats created by our Instant Expert...

...that also highlights his lack of wins at this grade and trip on the A/W. Misty Grey makes a course debut here under what looks like favourable conditions if he gets this track first time up. In fact, most of these have decent enough records under the current conditions, although Zip has struggled to win at Class 2.

The draw stats from previous 7f races on the tapeta here have favoured those drawn lower than halfway...

...which isn't the best duo for our in-form duo of Intervention & Doctor Khan Junior, who both have to race from the widest stalls as well as step up two classes. Gulliver and Misty grey seem to have the best of the draw from stalls 1 and 2, but they look set to approach this contest in very different ways. If we look back over this field's last three runs, we see that Gulliver is a confirmed hold-up horses and that Misty Grey had led once and raced prominently once in his last three...

...and that Lord of the Lodge, Excel Power and Intervention look like the main pace-setters here. If we refer back to those 50+ races we used to assume that a low draw was better than a high one, we can see that those horses willing to get on with it early have enjoyed the greatest success...

The three main pace-setters are actually drawn in stalls 8, 11 and 13 and it's unusual to have many leaders from wide draws here. Those attempting it have done well, though, as shown by our pace/draw heat map...

...which does seem to suggest that the draw might not necessarily mean that Intervention can't go well here.

Summary

Doctor Khan Junior is in great form and can overcome a high draw if getting a tow into the race by Intervention just on his inside and I fancy both of these to continue their fine form and make the frame (4 places here), whilst at the other end of the scales, Misty Grey looks to also have a great chance. I'd take all three to make the frame here and if pushed for a fourth runner to join them, Id' probably be looking at the likes of Lord of the Lodge to try and hang in at the front for as long as he can.

Of the four I like Intervention the most and 15/2 looks an interesting price, whilst a longer priced horse who might outrun his odds could be the 16/1 Gulliver.

Racing Insights, Monday 08/01/24

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Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 1.40 Ayr
  • 2.25 Taunton
  • 3.30 Taunton

If I'm honest, I'm not really taken by either of them, so let's switch our attention to the day's highest-rated race which appears on the same card, the 3.00 Taunton, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m3f on soft ground...

FORM : No LTO winners here but Killaloan, Vicki Vale and Just Loose Change had top-3 finishes. Zoffee and Bread & Butter are winless in nine and thirty-one respectively, although Zoffee's run of defeats are all on the flat/AW and his career hurdles form reads 221P, but he hasn't tackled a hurdle since being pulled up at the last in 2020's Fred Winter! The other horse without a recent win is Ask Brewster who has finished fourth in both starts under Rules, but did win his sole PTP contest over 2m5f at Maisemore Park last March.

CLASS : Galahad Quest, Mr Freedom, Vicki Vale, and Zoffee all drop down a level here, whilst El Rio, Bread And Butter & Ask Brewster all step up a class.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : Most have raced in the last eight weeks, but Zoffee has been off for twelve weeks whilst Galahad Quest and Getalead both return from lengthy breaks of 296 and 311 days respectively and this pair might well need the run.

ANYTHING NEW : This will be handicap debut day for El Rio and Ask Brewster, as Getalead and Zoffee make their first appearances for their new handlers.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Five of these (Killaloan, Mr Freedom, Zoffee, Inca de Lafayette and Ask Bewster) have yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but Killaloan & Inca de Lafayette have at least won on this track before, scoring over 2m1f twice and once respectively. Vicki Vale has won here over 2m½f, whilst Just Loose Change is our sole course and distance winner, having won here four starts ago, back in April and was a runner up over track & trip last time out.

Much of the above is replicated in INSTANT EXPERT...

...which shows just three soft ground winners, although Galahad Quest has also won a soft-ground chase. Getalead has tried and failed to win more often than the others on soft ground and has the second most Class 3 runs after Bashful Boy and the pair ore just 2 from 20 at this level. Killaloan is 2 from 2 over 2m1f here and went pretty well on soft ground at Wincanton last time out. Mr Freedom is relatively unexposed at going/class/track, but certainly gets the trip, winning three of his six efforts. He has also made the frame in two of his three defeats over this distance, as shown below...

None of these are ticking all the boxes just yet, but at this stage I'm only ruling Galahad Quest, Getalead, Bashful Boy, Inca de Lafayette and Ask Brewster out based on the length of layoff and/or their place stats above.

Monday's free feature is access to the PACE tab for all races and if we click the tab for this race, we see the following data...

...where 4 = led, 3 = raced prominently, 2= ran in mid-division and 1 = was held up. We can sort the columns by clicking on them and if I just click the end column (Ave) it gives us an average pace score for that horse's recent runs ie...

...suggesting that the likes of El Rio, Just Loose Change, Vicki Vale and Getalead are the likely front-runners/prominent horses with the likes of Bashful Boy, Killaloan, Mr Freedom and Bread & Butter closer to the back of the pack.

So, why are you telling us this, Chris?

Well, we have a fantastic tool called the Pace Analyser and by setting your required parameters, you can see what running style has or hasn't been successful over a certain type of race and for this particular race, we see...

...that those keen to get on with it fare much better than those racing in mid-division or further back. Leaders/prominent runners have won 66.66% of the above races and have taken 50% of the places from just 37% of the runners, therefore winning 1.8 times more and placing 1.35 times more than par.

Summary

The two horses I like the most are in the middle of the weights/card, Vicki Vale & Zoffee and both have made the frame in two of three soft ground efforts. The latter hasn't tackled a hurdle for ages and is therefore lacking in value at 7/2 or 4/1. Had he had a run over hurdles recently, I'd have been all over him. I might well miss the boat here by not backing him.

Vicki Vale is in good nick, ran well last time out and has won here at Taunton in the past and can be backed at 5/1. I suspect he'll be one of the major players here today, but I think I prefer Just Loose Change for this one. He ticks the box for pace, has a win and a runner-up finish from two course and distance runs and when runner-up here last time out, was seven lengths ahead of Individualiste in third and the latter then won here by sixteen lengths over course and distance a fortnight later!

I see the generally available 6/1 about Just Loose Change as a fair price. Elsewhere, if I wanted a bit of value as an E/W option, I'd be inclined to look at the 14/1 offered about El Rio by Paddy Power, especially as you can get four places on this race. El Rio is better than his last run and if he goes anything like he did two starts ago, when winning by eleven lengths at this going/trip, he could easily make the frame.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/01/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have actually generated no qualifiers for me to consider, so it's a good job that I've got our batch of daily free racecards to fall back on...

  • 11.55 Newcastle
  • 1.57 Cork
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.32 Cork
  • 3.42 Cork
  • 7.00 Southwell

Take away the three Irish races (not my thing) and the abandonment of Sandown, I'm left with a Class 5 Mares' Bumper for Conditional/Amateur Jockeys and a Class 5 fillies' A/W handicap. The latter looks the lesser of two evils, so let's head back to Southwell, where Nolton Cross won for us today and have a look at the 7.00 race, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner is Storymaker, who comes here seeking a hat-trick after she beat the re-opposing Sixties Chic by 2.5 lengths with the latter finishing third. Sixties Chic is, however, effectively 3lbs better off today. Platinum Jubilee was a runner most recently, but she's a four-race maiden, whilst Smiling Sunflower is the only without a win the last six races, having been beaten eight times on the bounce.

We have a couple of class droppers here, as joint top weight Just Janet is down one level and the other joint top-weight Finery is down three classes. Abbey's Dream wears first-time blinkers, whilst Platinum Jubilee's first run with a tongue tie coincides with her second handicap run. The card also denotes Liberty Mountain, Storymaker and Sixties Chic as fast finishers.

All bar the 7yr old Finery and the 5 yr old Smiling Sunflower are aged 4 and all bar Platinum Jubilee and Sixties Chic have already won over today's trip with the joint top weights, Just Janet & Finery have scored over course and distance...

Sixties Chic and Finery catch the eye at class/going, but the latter has only won 1 of 7 at this trip with a mile seeming to be her preferred distance. Abbey's Dream is 1 from 10 on a standard surface and Smiling Sunflower looks generally weak, so they're not making much appeal, although Abbey's Dream does have a decent set of placed finishes...

From that second graphic, I'd probably now ignore the bottom three to focus on the five drawn in stalls 3 and 5 to 8, so I'm hoping that of there's a draw bias here, it suits those drawn highest!

And that does seem to be the case...

...although from a place perspective ,the PRB3 figures favour the lower drawn runners...

That said, over 7f, race tactics aka pace are often the deciding factor, but the pace stats from those races above is almost as inconclusive as the draw data...

..and I think it's going to be like Friday's race here, where class ends up being the key and the best horses just come to the fore.

If we briefly consider how pace and draw work together, we see this...

...and our field have raced like this recently...

...which we can then overlay onto the pace/draw heatmap as follows...

Summary

I suspect Finery and Abbey's Dream will set the early tempo here, but that will just give the fast finishers Liberty Mountain, Storymaker and Sixties Chic a target to aim at. The first of that trio is bang out of form, but the other two ran really well against each other a fortnight ago and I now think they'll both overhaul the leaders to finish first and second.

Sixties Icon is now 3lbs better off with Storymaker, so I think she might well reverse the placings and win here, but there won't be much in it, as testified by them being installed as joint 7/2 favourites.

Finery is currently 7/1 and could well hold/hang on for a place but the lightly raced Platinum Jubilee rates a big threat.

 

Racing Insight, Friday 05/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers...

...and I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.02 Southwell
  • 1.12 Southwell
  • 1.55 Musselburgh
  • 3.55 Ludlow

...and the highest-rated of those six races above is the 1.12 Southwell, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+, A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

Only Haku won last time out, although Heathen was a runner-up having won two starts ago, as did Chase The Dollar. Nolton Cross & Rhythmic Intent are other LTO runners-up and Ensured finished third on his last run, albeit some 937 days ago in mid-June 2021! Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Buxted Too and Achnamara all coming here on losing runs of seven or more races (9, 14, 8 & 10 to be exact!). Haku's LTO win was by a head over the re-opposing Nolton Cross and the runner-up is now 1lb better off.

We know Ensured has been off track for nearly 31 months, but the remainder have all raced fairly recently. Valsad has had 80 days rest and Night Bear returns from a 53-day break, but the others have all raced in the last four weeks.

Rhythmic Intent is noted as a fast finisher and he, Ensured (now making a second handicap appearance) and Achnamara are the only runners not moving class today, as Midnight Lion last raced in a Listed hurdle and both Heathen & Valsad (yard debut for Jamie Osborne today) are dropping down from Class 2.

We then have five runners; Nolton Cross, Haku (in first-time cheekpieces), Buxted Too, Chase The Dollar and Night Bear all stepping up a level from Class 4.

As for previous successes, Ensured, Midnight Lion and Chase The Dollar have yet to win over this trip, but the latter has won here over 1m6f, whilst the other four previous course winners; Valsad, Nolton Cross, Heathen and Night Bear have all won over course and distance, as seen below in Instant Expert...

...where despite being winless in nine starts, Nolton Cross is the immediate eyecatcher and he comes here off the back of a narrow defeat. Most of the top six in the weights are proven at this going, course and trip and I suspect the winner and placers are amongst that half dozen. Five of the six are drawn in stalls 1-7 with only Nolton Cross detached from the group out in 11 of 11, but that shouldn't be an issue as there's no real discernible draw bias here...

...not that I expect one over a mile and a half. There are plenty of reasons not to win but the draw over such a trip shouldn't be one of them and nor should race tactics, according to our pace analyser...

Yes, front runners have been a bit of a target, but they're probably only one winner shy of parity with the other three running styles. On our course profile, jockey David Probert says that this is a fair track, suggesting that the better horses win more often irrespective of pace and/or draw.

Summary

If pace and draw aren't as important here as they normally are, then it's a case of finding those in form and best suited to the task. Instant Expert has led me to believe the top six in the weights is where I should focus, but Buxted Too hasn't run well for 18 months now and Valsad looks too high in the weights at just one pound lower than his last two results of 7th of 12 and last of seven. I'll discount this pair now, leaving me with just four to consider ie Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent, Haku and Heathen.

Of this four, there's probably not much between them. Haku narrowly beat Nolton Cross last time out, but I fancy those placings to be reversed with the latter now better off at the weights. Heathen has been running really well of late, so I suppose it's Rhythmic Intent who misses out. He did run well but that's the nearest he has got to winning in the last 27 months and whilst he could go well here again, he's the odd one out for me.

Of my final trio, there's not a great deal to choose between them, but if pushed the 11/2 offered about Nolton Cross at 5.20pm makes most sense.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/01/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 11.45 Lingfield
  • 12.58 Hereford
  • 2.28 Hereford
  • 6.10 Newcastle

It's a shockingly bad day of racing on Thursday and I'm struggling to be enthused about it if truth be told, but the show must go on! The highest-rated races are flour Class 4 affairs, three of which are maidens, so we'll tackle the one that isn't! That's the 2.58 Hereford, a 9-runner, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1½f on soft ground that might be a little better in places...

Not much in the way of recent winning form from this group, but the 11yr old veteran Len Brennan won five races ago, Langley Hundred won seven races ago and Honey I'm Good won six and seven races back, plus this sole mare in the race has won three of her four starts over fences.

Hardy Boy is winless in eight, but has been been a runner-up beaten by just a neck in each of his last two, whilst Invincible Nao, Inflexible and Len Brennan all finished third last time out, although the latter hasn't raced for 15 months since that last run and closer inspection shows he was third of just three, beaten by 27 lengths and he was last of five in his penultimate race, beaten by 55 lengths.

Those last two efforts, the lay-of and his age are more than enough to put me off Len Brennan, even if he is making a yard debut for Anthony Charlton and is one of just two winners over a similar trip to this one. Honey I'm Good is the other previous distance winner and she steps up a class here, as do the bottom three in the weights, Shot Boii, Paseo and Royal Act.

We know that Len Brennan has been off the track since early October 2022 and has only raced twice in the last 21 months, but all of his rivals have had an outing in the last five weeks with Paseo turned back out just five days after a 43 length defeat at Taunton, when only 6th of 9. I'm not sure a step up in class is the right move here less than a week later.

Feature of the day is, of course, Instant Expert and it shows how the field have performed in previous races under similar conditions...

...and that's a pretty bleak picture with the exception, of course, of the mare Honey I'm Good. I think we're going to need some place data to help us out here!

That's a little more useful with Hardy Boy, Langley Hundred and Inflexible at least adding some green to the reds! Royal Act looks out of his depth and I think he now joins Len Brennan and Paseo on the sidelines, leaving me with six to consider for a race that appears to reward front-runners and those who race fairly prominently...

Unfortunately, we don't have many who like to set the pace here, aside from Royal Act, if recent efforts are anything to go by...

...although Honey I'm Good and Shot Boii both have two 3+ scores in their last four outings and Hardy Boy was an unlucky pacemaker last time out.

Summary

None of these really make a forceful case to be backed as a winner, but Hardy Boy is the most consistent of them all and having been beaten by just a neck in each of his last two starts, he's certainly knocking on the door and would be my tentative pick at 9/2 (Hills & Bet365 @ 4.40pm).

Elsewhere, I'd probably look for some E/W value and if Honey I'm Good (the Instant Expert eyecatcher) puts her modest hurdles form behind her now she's back over fences (3 wins from 4 in this sphere), she could be dangerous at 9/1, whilst Shot Boii would also be of interest at 7's, but I'd probably want/need him to drift a little to become an E/W bet.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/01/24

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Happy Belated New Year everyone, I hope you all had a very merry Christmas and a good New Year's Eve/Day, I know I did!

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...and have sadly highlighted no qualifiers. Thankfully, in addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.20 Ffos Las
  • 1.50 Ffos Las
  • 7.00 Kempton

Ffos Las has unfortunately been abandoned, as has the card at Huntingdon, leaving Kempton as the sole meeting. Our 'free' race on that card is actually the joint highest rated and joint highest prize on the card, so we'll stick with the 7.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

It's an inexperienced field with just 41 races between them. The most experienced (Bulldog Drummond) has raced 10 times to date, but all have at least three outings under their belts. My initial thoughts were that this might be a two-horse race between Engineer and the afore-mentioned Bulldog Drummond but let's see what the card tells us...

Bulldog Drummond was the only one to win last time out and only Engineer and Ippotheos have won a race prior to this one. Engineer has mad the frame in all three outings, Gaiden has been a back to back runner-up and both Flag Carrier and Persian Blue were in the frame on their last outings.

All bar Gaiden, the fast-finishing () Ippotheos and Flag Carrier are stepping up from Class 5 and it will be handicap debut day for Engineer, Cast No Shadow and Persian Blue, whilst Ippotheos and Flag Carrier both run in handicap company for just the second time. Persian Blue wears a tongue tie for the first and she is the quickest turned back out, just seven days after finishing third at Wolverhampton. Engineer has been off track the longest, but seven weeks is hardly a long break from action and the other eight have all been seen in the last 13-26 days.

Only three of the field have raced here before, making the frame four times from five combined runs but no wins. Our three previous winners, Engineer, Ippotheos & Bulldog Drummond have all won at this trip, though...

With so little winning form from this bunch, I've also included the place stats and they do suggest that the upper half/five on the card would be the place to focus with Engineer the standout. Ippotheos might find this tough at 11lbs higher than his sole win, but he does have a 7lb claimer on board to help in that respect. Bulldog Drummond and Flag Carrier both have much better place stats than their win records on the A/W.

The draw stats from previous similar contests show that the lower a horse has been drawn here, the greater the chances of making the frame and ultimately winning...

...which is another boost to the claims of Engineer, but not great for Flag Carrier.

Those 70 or so races above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those who race prominently or lead and based on this field's last three runs (some only have three!)...

...that's another tick in the box for Engineer. There's also some encouragement for Flag Carrier from his wide draw, whilst it may well be Cast No Shadow who sets the early pace. He has failed to hold on in his last two, both over 5f, so I suspect the extra furlong here makes life even tougher.

Summary

When I first looked at the card, I thought it might be a two-horse race between Engineer and Bulldog Drummond, but I'm much keener on the former now I've had a closer look and  the 7/2 (Hills at 3.40pm) Engineer is the one for me. Bulldog will run his race and make a late dash for the line, as will the fast-finishing Ippotheos, but they might encounter traffic. That said, neither are backable IMO as E/W options at their current odds of 4/1 & 6/1 respectively.

If Ippotheos drifted from 6's and/or Flag Carrier was longer than the current 13/2, then they might be the ones for E/W consideration, but for now, I'll just stick with Engineer.

Racing Insights, Saturday 30/12/23

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My last column of the year focuses on Saturday's racing, where our free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users.

Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...but they have sadly generated no qualifiers for me to consider, but I can at least call upon our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 12.15 Haydock
  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 3.10 Haydock
  • 4.45 Wolverhampton

...a list that contains a couple of Class 3 handicaps, the most valuable of which is the 2.25 Newbury, a 12-runner, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m2f on good to soft ground that will be softer in places...

Only Surrey Quest managed to win last time out, but Certainly Red, Bowtogreatness, Fantastikas, Atlanta Brave and Striking A Pose all had top three finishes, although it has been 259 days since Bowtogreatness was last seen with all his rivals having had at least one run in the last two months.

He does however drop down two classes to run here, as does Bangers and Cash with the other two of the top four in the weights, Certainly Red and Docpickedme dropping down one class. Conversely, Surrey Quest and bottom-weight Striking A Pose are both up a level here.

Bangers and Cash will be wearing cheekpieces for the first time today, whilst this will be Surrey Quest's first outing since having had wind surgery during a two month break following his LTO win at Huntingdon.

Notachance's Class 4, 3m½f handicap hurdle success back in March 2019 is the only previous Newbury win from this dozen runners, but Certainly Red, Docpickedme, Laskalin and Shanty Alley have all won at least once over a similar trip to this one. The field lacks success under similar conditions to those expected here, but Instant Expert does highlight a couple of runners who might be well suited...

...with Certainly Red and Bangers And Cash the immediate eyecatchers there. Causes for concern above include Shanty Alley, Yes Indeed and Striking A Pose at Class 3 and Fantastikas over this trip. The rest of the field seem pretty unexposed under these parameters, but many of them are regular placers...

Fairly strangely for a stayers' chase on soft-ish ground, past similar races here at Newbury have tended to suit front-runners those chasing the leader(s) with those racing further back having less success...

...which based on this field's most recent outings would appear to benefit Bangers And Cash, Docpickedme and Shanty Alley...

...plus to a slightly lesser extent Laskalin (although if he leads?), Surrey Quest and Notachance.

Summary

Bangers And Cash caught the eye on Instant Expert, despite never having raced here at Newbury. He also has no run at 3m2f, but has won at 3m, 3m3½f and even 3m5f, so he has stamina to boot. He will also be expected to be up with the pace and would normally be under serious consideration here as a bet, but after winning three of his last four last season, he has run poorly twice at Cheltenham this term and will need to improve massively to get involved.

I'd be backing him here if he'd had a decent run under his belt this season, but whilst I think he's much better than his current 16/1 odds, he's not my idea of a winner here. That said, he is more than capable of making the frame and with firms paying four places, he might be of interest.

Whilst we're looking at E/W possibles, Shanty Alley might be the answer at 10/1. He's a regular placer on Instant Expert and has a decent pace profile for this race. He was the runner-up in this contest last year and is 5lbs better off this time and probably needed the run last time out after nearly seven months off.

If pushed for a winner, I'd struggle here; there are no standouts for me, but I do like the look of the two at the top of the weights, who both drop in class. Both Certainly Red and Bowtogreatness have chances here and with the former currently trading at 11/1, that could also be an E/W route.

The one I have largely ignored is the favourite Atlanta Brave who is still relatively unexposed and gets weight from most of his rivals, but 4/1 looks mightily short to me about a horse whose best form is at Class 4, has never gone beyond 3m and hasn't won beyond 2m6f, but who knows?

Happy New Year, everyone; I'll see you on the other side of Hogmanay in '24.

 

Racing Insights, Friday 29/12/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 3.10 Limerick
  • 3.25 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Southwell

That sole UK race above isn't a terrible one, but I think I'll take a look at the day's highest-rated UK race instead. That's the 1.40 Doncaster and it's an 8-runner Listed chase contest for Mares aged 4 and over. There's 16 fences to be jumped over a left-handed 2m4½f on good to soft ground and here's how they'll line up...

Zambella has won this race in each of the last two years and arrives here on the back of a win last time out, as does Pink Legend. Likely favourite Limerick Lace was a Grade 3 runner-up last month and has 3 wins from her last 6 outings, as do Zambella and La Renommee whilst Pink Legend is four from six! Royale Margaux is the only one without a win in six, and as a maiden beaten at Class 3 last time out, she looks set to struggle here.

She's up two classes today and looks the weakest in this field; Walk In Clover (who ran in a race we covered a fortnight ago) is also up two classes after failing to make the frame and is also probably one to discount early. Top-weight Fantastic Lady also steps up in class despite labouring somewhat at Aintree in a Class 2 handicap.

She is however (as you'll see below shortly) just one of two previous course winners having landed a Class 4 Novice Hurdle over 2m3½f way back in March 2021. Our other course winner is Zambella, of course, who has won this race in each of the last two years. The trip, however, is a familiar one to this field, as all bar Carole's Pass and Royale Margaux have already won at simlar distances, as shown here on Instant Expert, where no horse ticks all the boxes...

Zambella is the standout for me here, despite only making the frame twice in six efforts without winning on good to soft ground. If truth be told, she'd like it softer than it currently is, but she knows the lie of the land here. Pink Legend is a winner of five Class 1 chases and that's not to be sniffed at. Her record on good to soft is decent enough, but she's also 4 from 6 on good ground, so her chances might improve in this drier weather, especially if the winds help to dry out the track.

Zambella's approach to winning this race the last two years has been to ping the tapes and make all and this would certainly seem to be generally right the approach over this course and distance on good to soft ground...

...with those racing in mid-division or further back struggling to land a blow. 60% of leaders manage to hold on for a place with 40% of those placers going on to win, which is another vote of confidence for Pink Legend as well as Zambella...

...as they look the likely pace makers here.

Summary

Zambella won a Listed event at Aintree by seventeen lengths last time out but would prefer it softer here. That said, she's well versed at track and trip and scores really well on Instant Expert. She'll be up with the pace and she'd be the one for me here.

Pink Legend also scored well on Instant Expert and has won five Class 1 chases including last time out and two of her last three. She's also got a good pace profile for this race and is a very likely placer here today. Limerick Lace will be well fancied by the market, but has come up short on her last few Class 1 outings and would also prefer softer ground.

I think she's the best of the rest and may well in time emerge as the best in this race, but I prefer Zambella today.

Sadly, the early (3.30pm) market also likes the three I've highlighted...

...but it's Zambella for me and no E/W pick unless Pink Legend drifts somewhat!

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