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Racing Insights, Wednesday 13/12/2023

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.45 Hexham
  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 2.00 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Exeter
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have yielded the following qualifiers...

Aside from a solitary Listed race at Kempton, the highest rated races in the UK on Wednesday are five Class 3 affairs. Our ten UK races above include four of those five Class 3 races and the most valuable of them is the 2.00 Lingfield, a 12-runner, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard going polytrack...

Intervention was a winner here over 7f a week ago and having won at Wolverhampton three weeks earlier, now arrives her seeking a hat-trick of wins as he drops in trip. None of his rivals here even made the frame on their last outings, but Gulliver, Navello, Expert Agent, Count Otto, Buccabay and sole mare Cuban Breeze have all at least won inside their last six.

Five of the field are class movers today, as both Gulliver and Rousing Encore drop down from Class 2 after being well beaten, whilst Buccabay, Count Otto and Expert Agent all step up from Class 4, despite failing to shine last time out. The latter, Expert Agent, makes a yard debut for Stuart Williams, having left Kevin Foy during the eight weeks since his last run. Bosh is noted on the card as a fast finisher, but having lost his last eight races, he might be better off setting for home sooner!

Rocking Ends has been off the track for over five months and might well need the run, whilst most of the field have raced in the last month or so with Count Otto, Expert Agent, Rousing Encore and Bosh coming back after 6 to 10 weeks off.

Way To Dubai and Navello are the only ones yet to win at this trip, whilst Expert Agent and Count Otto are both course and distance winners. Rocking Ends (5f), Gulliver (7f) and Intervention (7f) have also tasted victory here at Lingfield, as shown by Instant Expert...

...which suggests Gulliver, Expert Agent, Count Otto and Intervention might be some of the main contenders to win here and the latter has made the frame in similar conditions on many occasions...

...as has Count Otto without being quite a prolific from a strike rate perspective.

Of the four who caught the eye from the win graphic, we have runners in stalls 1, 2, 7 and 12 of 12, so the pace/draw stats could make interesting reading, starting as usual with the details from our draw analyser...

...where over the last 150 or so similar contests, the best draw has been the low to mid-range with stalls 1 to 5 performing best according to the PRB3 graph...

...although stalls 6 & 7 still have a rating of 0.500 or higher. This would suggest that Gulliver and Intervention would have a slight advantage over Count Otto with Expert Agent the least well drawn, but not out of it by any means, as over 6f here at Lingfield much will depend on the approach taken to the race and our pace analyser says...

...that the further forward a horse has raced in those 150+ contests above, the greater the chance of a win/place. If we then look at the field's most recent efforts...

...I'd expect Buccabay and Rocking Ends to be up with the early pace with both Intervention and Cuban Breeze for company. Expert Agent ran prominently last time out, as he did when landing back to back course and distance wins in the spring, so I'd expect him to be further forward here too. Gulliver looks like having to pass the entire field to win here and I'm not sure he's that good. I know he won four races ago, but that win came after 28 successive defeats over a 35 month period, so he's hardly reliable.

Summary

Intervention is the one for me (and probably many others) here and whilst he's at the top of the market, I think his current (5.55pm) 9/2 odds are more than fair and I'd expect him to land the hat-trick here. Expert Agent (5/1)and Buccabay (13/2) might well be the ones to chase him home, but if I was to have a longer priced E/W pick, it would probably be the 10/1 Cuban Breeze, especially with firms paying four places. She's running pretty well right now on polytrack (213 in her last three), gets weight all round and if starting well, could surprise a few from a wider draw.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 12/12/2023

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a whole swathe of qualifiers. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.00 Punchestown
  • 2.52 Ffos Las
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.45 Wincanton
  • 7.00 Southwell

Two of our 'free' races feature runners from The Shortlist and the highest rated of the two is the 7.00 Southwell featuring Roarin' Success and Wild Side from above. They'll take on another half a dozen rivals in a Class 3, 3yo+ fillies A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

Our two featured runners actually raced against each other last time out at Kempton four weeks ago and here's how that one panned out...

...and with both running off the same marks here, I'd expect them to be closely matched again in a race that looks really competitive. As you can see, neither of them actually won that day, although Roarin' Success made the frame, but Achillea did win last time out and Enola Grey was a runner-up, although she now hasn't won in eleven outings, whilst Lady Mojito has lost eight on the bounce; she'll be visored for the first time here in a bid to improve her form.

None of this field actually raced at Class 3 last time out, as Wild Side, Roarin' Success, Achillea and Finery step up from Class 4 and the bottom three on the card (Hey Lyla, Lady Mojito & Enola Grey) all raced at Class 5. Yorkshire Lady's Class 2 run a month ago makes her the only class dropper here.

All bar Finery (101 days off) have had at least one outing in the last five weeks and Lady Mojito is the only runner here yet to win at this trip, whilst Finery is our sole course and distance winner.

With regards to Lady Mojito, she's bang out of form, hasn't won at the trip and is up two classes and that's enough for me to dismiss her chances here, even before we look at Instant Expert...

Now, I'm a big fan of Instant Expert, but sometimes it doesn't offer as much help as I'd like and today it just reiterates how competitive this contest could. There's no standout candidate purely on those numbers above, nor do any put themselves up for the chop. Finery seems far more experienced and has a good set of numbers to her name.

She's also our sole course and distance winner, having scored here eleven months ago from the widest draw of seven runners and she now finds herself in stall 7 of 8, which hasn't always suited runners here. In similar past contests, a draw in the middle of the stalls has been more conducive to winning here, whilst those drawn lowest make the frame most often...

...whilst our pace data from those races above says that runners racing prominently or leading are more likely to be taking some prize money home...

...and if we combined pace and draw...

...a relatively clear picture begins to form. If we then overlay this field's draw and their pace stats from their last four outings, we get an idea of how the race might pan out...

Summary

Instant Expert didn't exactly help too much today, but the pace/draw heat map suggests we should look at those drawn highest here, even if that hasn't always been successful at Southwell. Both our Shortlist runners, Wild Side & Roarin' Success are involved and although the latter looks slightly worse off than the former, she did come out best last time and off the same marks, I suspect that Roarin' Success might just hold Wild Side off, although it'll be tight again.

I actually think these will be the first two home with Finery getting towed along by them. She loves it here at Southwell and has a good record at the trip and with Hills opening up at 9/1 about her, she might be a nice E/W option. As for the two main protagonists, Roarin' Success & Wild Side, they're 3/1 and 4/1 , first and third favourites respectively.

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 08/12/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have managed to produce five qualifiers...

...and as always our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 2.15 Sedgefield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And from all of which, I'd say the best of the above races (on paper at any rate) for me to look at was the 3.00 Sandown, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed three miles on soft ground...

Huelgoat, Not Sure and Robyndzone all won last time out, whilst My Silver Lining and Animal were both runners- up. Only Planned Paradise is winless in six or more (nine to be precise!). Kapcorse has been off the track for 225 days now and might well need the run, although he does drop in class here. All his rivals have, however, had at least one run in the last month.

Via Dolorosa makes a yard debut for Sophie Leech and is up a class, as are Not Sure, Robyndzone and Animal, whilst top-weight Collectors Item wears cheekpieces for the first time. None of the field have won here at Sandown before, mind you just four have been here for a collective total of five runs with just one placed finish (Planned Paradise). As for the trip, that's a different story, as all bar Jet Plane, Huelgoat, Kapcorse and Planned Paradise have scored over s similar trip, and those who have won over fences at this distance are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where bottom-weight Planned Paradise looks arguably least suited to the task and Via Dolorosa might well be out of his depth at Class 3 from a win perspective, but he has made the frame in four of seven at this level...

...where Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone makes most appeal to me.

The pace stats from previous similar races look like this...

...an whilst there's not a great deal of data to work with, I think it's fair to suggest you want to be on a progressive type rather than one who is waited with. Based on their most recent outings...

...that would seem to steer us towards Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining.

Summary

Huelgoat, Not Sure, Robyndzone, My Silver Lining and Animal bring the best recent form to the table.
Huelgoat, My Silver Lining, Not Sure, Midnight Mary and Robyndzone mades most appeal to me from Instant Expert.
Robyndzone, Via Dolorosa, Midnight Mary, Huelgoat and My Silver Lining were the takeaways from the pace stats.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining feature in all three lists and I fancy them to both make the frame here and possibly be the first two home. Of the others, Robyndzone also features three times, whilst Not Sure and Midnight Mary both feature twice.

Huelgoat and My Silver Lining are currently (8.50pm UK time, 4.50pm here) both priced at 5/1. Not Sure is also 5/1 and that's too short for an E/W play for me, as is the 15/2 about Midnight Mary; she's a consistent placer, but I think the assessor has her held right now and I'd be wanting double digit odds about her.

I can, however, get 10's about Robyndzone, so he might not be a bad E/W bet after all.

Racing Insights, Thursday 07/12/23

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Apologies for the on-off nature of this column over the least week or so, I'm currently cruising the Caribbean (part of my travel agent job!) and on some days the wifi/internet is good and on some days it isn't. Normal service will be resumed next Tuesday, but until then, I'll post every day that I'm able to, so let's crack on!

Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 11.12 Southwell
  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 2.05 Wincanton
  • 2.57 Clonmel
  • 3.07 Southwell
  • 3.15 Wincanton

...and I think I'll look at the last of that list, the 3.15 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m1f on soft ground that is already heavy in places...

Take Your Time and Not Sure both won last time out and the latter has three wins and two places from his last five outings, whilst Eceparti comes here on a hat-trick after recent back to back wins at Chepstow. The rest of the field bar Striking A Pose and Edeiffs Elton have all won at least once in their last six efforts, but this pair are winless in twelve and eight respectively.

Both 'cold' horses do at least drop down a class here, as does Harlem Soul and Striking A Pose will hopefully benefit from a recent wind op. I say recent, because he only raced seven weeks ago, as did Harlem Soul. Nearly Perfect has been off the track for six months, but he's the only one who hasn't raced in the last seven weeks.

Nearly Perfect is, however, just one of two former course and distance winners in the field with Edeiffs Elton being the other, although Striking A Pose has won a 2m5½f hurdle here before and Harlem Soul has landed a pair of 2m4f chases and a 1m7½f hurdle on this track. Elsewhere, the top three in the weights, Take Your Time, Raddon Top & Not Sure have all won at similar trips to this one.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert, of course and it looks like this today...

...with Striking A Pose looking most vulnerable. Take Your Time and Raddon Top are both heavy ground winners, so they'll not be too concerned if the rain continues to fall, whilst most of the field have won at this grade. Nearly Perfect is an interesting one on paper with a full line of green and running off a mark 12lbs lower than his last win.

The caveats here are that he hasn't raced for six months and has only ran five times since winning over course and distance here on Boxing Day 2020. He did, however, finish 1311 in his four starts that year, staring and ending the year with CD wins here on soft ground, including one at Class 3.

So, if he's tuned up and ready to go, he might be able to surprise a few of his rivals here and the odds are that he's likely to want to get on with things, if the evidence of his last few races are anything to go by...

He looks like he'll have company, though, in the shape of top weight LTO winner Take Your Time and the fellow CD winner Edeiffs Elton. Our Pace Analyser suggests that this is a successful tactic to adopt, based on past similar contests...

Eceparti has also raced keenly in his last two races, so there's a good chance he'll want to join in upfront and we could have some decent early pace for soft/heavy ground stayers' chase, which might well burn a few out before the finish.

Summary

The one I think I like the most is top weight Take Your Time. He's in good nick, scored well on Instant Expert and has a good pace profile for this race. He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills (the only book open right now) and I think that's fair.

He might well have been shorter but for Eceparti being installed as the early 11/8 fav. He's  running really well, of course, having won his last two, but he looks short in the market for me, especially as he hasn't the best record of this field on going/trip. He might well win, but 11/8 makes no appeal to me.

I don't think there's a proper E/W bet for me here, but if he's ready for it, Nearly Perfect might run better than his early 12/1 ticket might suggest.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 05/12/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where I suppose Smith and Gincident would be of the most obvious immediate interest to me. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 12.30 Lingfield
  • 1.50 Southwell
  • 3.35 Lingfield
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

I'll swerve Southwell for fear of a second successive abandonment for us and I'll head for the race starring Gincident, which is the highest rated of the races above. It is, of course, the 7.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta...

...and our ever informative cards show...

FORM : No LTO winners, but Woodstock City, Talis Evolvere and Urban Sprawl were placed, but the latter is winless in his recent form-line, as is Young Fire. Woodstock City, Queen of Ipanema, Gincident and Visibility have all won two from their last six.

CLASS : Talis Evolvere, Chantico and Young Fire all step up a class, whilst bottom-weight and fast-finishing Visibility is up two classes.

WHAT'S NEW? : Sceptic and Chantico both make debuts for their new yards and the former runs for the first time since wind surgery and the latter is denoted as a fast finisher. Woodstock City runs in handicap company for the first time and also makes a UK debut after 2 wins and 4 third places from ten runs in France.

LAST SEEN? : Most of these have had a run in the last four weeks, but Scepic has been off for eleven weeks and Woodstock City for three months. However, that's nothing compared to the layoffs of Chantico (227d) and Queen of Ipanema (242d) and this pair might well be feeling it in the closing stages if they go off quickly.

COURSE/DISTANCE WINS : Queen of Ipanema has won here over 1m1½f and 1m4f, but Gincident, Young Fire and Visibility are all former course and distance winners and all these course wins are shown below in Instant Expert...

...where, as you'd expect from The Shortlist, Gincident looks very well suited to the task in hand as do to a lesser extent, Sceptic and Queen of Ipanema. Young Fire looks like a blowout after plenty of attempts to get it right here, but Visibility looks interesting if not earth-shattering.

The corresponding place data from those races above looks like this...

...with only Young Fire and Visibility looking suspect. Young Fire does, of course, occupy stall 1, so let's check our Draw Analyser to see if that's usually a help or a hindrance...

Well, it appears that there's a very slight advantage to having a higher draw, but those drawn lowest make the frame more often, but again the advantage is very slight, so I'm going to say that none of these should lose this race purely because if which stall they emerge from.

The likelihood is that much will depend on how they emerge from those stalls and how they proceed to make their way home and our Pace Analyser suggests that you want to be on a prominent/leading runner...

...and the lack of obvious pace in this pack (based on their recent outings) might give an easy opening to Urban Sprawl...

He's not a front-runner by any means, of course, but regularly races prominently and regularly makes the frame by doing so.

Summary

Whilst winless in twelve (seven on the Flat followed by five on the A/W), Urban Sprawl's last five results (all on A/W) read 33243 and was a good third on his Wolverhampton debut last time out. He drops back a furlong here and I fancy him to make the frame again here.

That said, he's probably not the winner (he tends not to be) and that's more likely to be Talis Evolvere who ran weel to finish second over 7f here last time out, having led early on, but was outpaced in the later sprint for the line. The extra yardage should help here.

Unsurprisingly, these two head the market, but they're probably the best two in the race. My longshot who might outrun his odds is Young Fire, who looks better than an 18/1 shot and if a few falter, he could make the frame here.

Racing Insights, Monday 04/12/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 1.45 Plumpton
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...none of which I fancy, sadly, so I'm going to look at the highest rated and most valuable race of the day, the 2.45 Plumpton, a competitive-looking, 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ mares' handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4½f (but nearer to 2m5½f after a 174yds rail adjustment) on good to soft ground...

The Height of Fame and A Tickatickatiming both won last time out and the latter has won to of her last four. All the Glory was a runner-up most recently and has won two from six with three runner-up finishes, so she's pretty consistent. Ilovethenightlife was pulled up on her last run but has won two from four. Iorens and Pretending are both winless over hurdles after four and six efforts respectively whilst Belles Benefit has won just once in nineteen attempts.

Belles Benefit's cause probably won't be helped by stepping up two classes either, as The Height of Fame, Pretending, All The Glory & A Tickatickatiming all step up one level with the last-named duo making their handicap debuts here. Top weight Ilovethenightlife actually drops down a class, leaving Iorens as the only one to have raced at this grade last time out, but that was some 277 days and she might well now need the run, especially as the others have all raced in the last seven weeks (five of them in the last two to four weeks).

A Tickatickatiming won here LTO over 2m four weeks ago and she's 2 from 3 here and is the only previous course winner in the field, whilst Ilovethenightlife's 2m5f win at Newbury and The Height of Fame's multiple 2m5½f successes are the only ones we've seen at this kind of trip. Instant Expert has these and other relevant stats, of course...

...where the standout stat is The Height of Fame's suitability for the trip. As mentioned, A Tickatickatiming goes weel here and has also won her sole effort on good to soft ground, unlike All The Glory who is only 1 from 8. Belles Benefit's win record at 2m4f to 2m6f is very poor and the following place stats aren't that encouraging for her either...

They do, however, present a very case for All The Glory making the frame even if her win records aren't good.

Today's feature is the PACE side of the equation and our Pace Analyser tells us we'd be best suited by backing a front-runner or prominent type...

Ideally we want a horse who scores 3 or more on our pace profiling and thankfully, by clicking the pace tab, we can see how this field usually runs and we have four horses with at least three scores of 3 or more in their last four outings...

...and these four would be the ones I'd look at firstly. That said, I don't think Belles Benefit is going to have much chance here, so I'd be taking All The Glory, A Tickatickatiming and The Height of Fame as my three against the field.

Summary

From All The Glory, A Tickatickatiming and The Height of Fame that I've taken from the pace stats, All The Glory has the best place record under these conditions, but doesn't win often enough. That said, she's available at 13/2 and that's a decent E/W option in my opinion, especially if your bookie is paying three places.

As for a winner, I think The Height of Fame edges it via a superior record at today's type of trip and she's currently the 3/1 fav. I'd expect her to beat A Tickatickatiming, whose own 5/1 ticket isn't long enough for me to consider an E/W punt.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Kelso
  • 2.00 Hereford
  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 3.55 Dundalk

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

5-year course form...

...from which, I think I'll take a look at Venetia Williams' Paseo and his nine rivals in the 3.10 Hereford, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 3m1f on good ground...

Hipop des Ongrais and My Bad Lucy both won last time out, but the latter (like Glance from Clover and Paseo) has been off the track for around seven months, whilst the former raced eight weeks ago and the rest of the field have all been turned out in the last 2-4 weeks.

Langley Hundred and Pilot Show were both runners-up last time out and most of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings with the exceptions being Faustinovick and Cobra Commander whose run of defeats currently stand at eight races each.

All three returning from a long break are also up in class here, as are Pilot Show and bottom-weight Cobra Commander (that's not going to end break an 8-race cold spell!), but Coral drops down a grade here.

Six of this field have raced here before, but none have won yet but half of them (top-weight Tide Times, Hipop des Ongrais, Pilot Show, Glance from Clover & Cobra Commander) have at least won over a similar trip and it's number 2 on the racecard, Hipop des Ongrais who catches the eye first on Instant Expert...

...whilst 'local hero' and featured runner Paseo looks pretty unsuited by conditions, as do Faustinovick and Coral.

Langley Hundred has yet to win over fences, but has only tackled them once, when a runner-up in a field of nine at Ludlow almost three weeks ago, despite returning from a six-month break whilst My Bad Lucy has won two of his last three good ground 3m chases.

Tide Times is interesting at 10lbs below his last winning mark because his 0 from 5 record at Class 4 doesn't tell the full story. Yes, he's not in the best of form, having been pulled up in three of his last five, but he had finished 211621 in his previous six including 1121 at Class 3, so he's certainly not out of his depth here off a dangerous mark.

With so much red on the above graphic, we should consider the place stats from those races...

...which suggest the top of the card might be the place to focus upon for the places, along with My Bad Lucy based on his win stats.

He's likely to be the front runner here, if the field's last few outings are anything to go by...

...with featured runner Paseo closer to the back than the front, but the racecard does have him marked as a fast finisher. Although we don't really have enough data from past races to make an accurate call about the best racing position to win from, I think it's fairly clear that leaders tend to make the frame more often than not...

...which is another tick in My Bad Lucy's box.

Summary

My Bad Lucy was one of the standouts from Instant Expert and his early pace looks like it could be enough to carry him into the frame. He's currently 8/1 with both Bet365 & Hills (the only books open), but that probably fair and arguably worth a small E/W play.

Whether he's ready to win after seven months off is debatable of course and I think he's going to have to repel Hipop des Ongrais if he is to win. Hipop returned from a 163-day break to win pretty comfortably last time out beating Red Happy by almost 3 lengths with the next best a further 27 lengths back! Red Happy is 2 from 2 since, including a Class 3 win last time out, so I'd be picking Hipop des Ongrais as my winner here.

He's priced at 3/1 with Hills, which again looks fair to me and I'd expect him to beat My Bad Lucy. As for who joins them in the frame, Langley Hundred might be the one after an impressive chase debut recently; he might well come on for the experience, but 4/1 is no E/W price for me and if I was to look further down the odds list, the interesting option is the 14/1 about Tide Times. He's not in great form (as I discussed earlier), but is good enough to beat several of these here if he completes the race. I wouldn't be going too deep on him, but he's surely better than 14/1 against this bunch?

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/11/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 12.15 Sedgefield
  • 2.20 Sedgefield
  • 2.30 Tramore

Truth be told, the racing on offer in the UK for Tuesday looks dreadful at best, with the highest rated races being half a dozen Class 4 affairs including a pair of Novice races and a mares' maiden! Of the other three, two have just seven runners and as I do like to look for E/W value, I want more than seven runners, so we've landed on the 2.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, where the trip is a left-handed 3m½f on heavy ground...

We've no LTO winners in the field, but the fast-finishing Steal My Sunshine has won two of his last three and only Mountain Leopard is winless in his last five, although Stratton Oakmount's run of form reading 1P12 came in Irish PTP contests. That said, it proves he stays and jumps and can carry 12 stones!

Ithaka's second run in a tongue-tie sees him drop down from Class 3 (16th of 18), whilst Glance from Clover (8th of 10) and Lelantos (7th of 12) both step up a class despite faring badly last time out and the former won't be helped by not having raced for 204 days.

Mind you, he's not the only one coming off a break, as Mountain Leopard and Our Bill's Aunt return from layoffs of 197 and 227 days respectively, with the other five runners all having had a run in the last month.

Lelantos is the sole runner to have either won here at Southwell or over a similar trip to this one and he has, in fact, won over course and distance, albeit just over two years ago off a mark 6lbs lower than today. That aside, Instant Expert suggests that none of the field have gone particularly well under today's expected conditions...

...where Lelantos probably shades it, although it's a fairly low bar and I think we're going to need to see the place data...

...where this quintet make most appeal on stats alone...

Three miles-plus on heavy ground might take some getting here at Southwell and from a small number of similar past races, we've found that leaders in 7-1o-runner contests of soft to heavy ground have often struggled to hang on to the lead...

...which, based on their most recent efforts, probably doesn't bode too well for the likes of Pure Theatre, Our Bill's Aunt and Mountain Leopard from the five I highlighted in Instant Expert...

...with those from course and distance winner Lelantos downwards looking better positioned here.

Summary

From the five runners I highlighted earlier, Stratton Oakmont and Lelantos make most appeal and I think both have a great chance of a top three finish. But, if I think Stratton Oakmont is going to be in the mix, I then need to consider Steal My Sunshine, who has a similar pace profile to Stratton and finished one place (4L) behind him last time out. Steal My Sunshine is 2lbs better off here and that should reduce the gap, making this pair more evenly matched.

It's not totally unfeasible that they're the first two home here and I think Stratton Oakmont should still just about hold Steal My Sunshine with Lelantos looking useful for a place. Elsewhere, I suspect Mountain Leopard being the biggest challenge to this trio.

No prices available at 3.15pm on Monday, but I'd be hoping for 11/2 or bigger about Stratton Oakmont and I doubt any of the other three will be long enough for me to go E/W, but you might.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 27/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.35 Ludlow
  • 3.05 Kempton

The first is a maiden hurdle, so let's try the 3.05 Kempton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m5f on good/good to soft ground...

THELASTHIGHKING finished 211 in his last three runs of the previous season and returned to action here at Kempton five weeks ago with a great run to finish second of seven despite being raised 5lbs and being off for 193 days. He could well strip fitter for the run, but does step up in trip and is up another 5lbs.

BEFORE MIDNIGHT hasn't won any of his eleven races over the last two years since winning by a short head at Ascot on November 2021 and was beaten by 39 lengths as 9th of 11 at Cheltenham last month, but does drop a class here.

GLOIRE D'ATHON has made the frame in 6 of 10 efforts over fences (5 wins) and his results in the 16 months from April '22 read 22111211, but was pulled up at Newbury earlier this month on his return from a 4-month break.

OUR JET looks like the first pick of the two Dan Skelton runners in the field and he was 3rd of 10 at Newbury earlier this month when returning from almost seven months off the track (had a wind op in that time). He was well beaten that day, though, coming home some 32 lengrths behind the winner of a well strung-out field. He now sports cheekpieces for the first time and could be of interest off this mark.

MULLINAREE makes a chase debut here 45 days after contesting a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Chepstow, where he was 5th of 7. Prior to that run, his career had been revitalised by wearing a hood and tongue tie during five successive wins over 2m3½f to 2m5½f on ground ranging from good to heavy, so going and trip shouldn't be his downfall here, but will he take to the bigger obstacles?

AMOOLA GOLD is the second of the Skelton duo and he receives weight all round. He's the sole LTO winner in the field and has won two of his last three, albeit both over hurdles wither side of finishing last of six (beaten by 58L) over fences at Haydock in March. His last chase win was a Listed contest at Ascot, but it was over two years ago and his form over fences since then reads 2643847736.

Instant Expert says that all five to have raced over fences have won at least once on good or good to soft ground and four of them have won at Class 3. Only three have been chasing at Kempton before and they're a collective 0 from 4, whilst Gloire D'Athon seems best suited to the trip...

Before Midnight has poor win records at both Class & trip, whilst Amoola Gold has a similar record over the distance. On base stats alone, Gloire D'Athon looks of interest. He normally runs in mid-division or slightly further forward, according to his last four outings and if all six run as they have been doing of late, he's likely to take third rank early doors...

...with chase debutant Mullinaree and Skelton second-stringer Amoola Gola the more likely front-runners. Should Gloire D'Athon want to make the frame or even go on to win, then his prominent running style might just bear fruit if this track/trip's results are anything to go by...

Summary

The Lasthighking is probably the best horse in the race and if he comes on for having had the run and reverts back to front-running like he did two starts ago, he'll be very difficult to beat. He is, however, as low as 13/8 and only as high as 15/8 and there's no guarantees that he won't be held up and he is up another 5lbs here, so whilst he's probably the one to beat, there's no value on the price.

Our Jet could go well if not left with too much to dao, but this isn't really a race I want to bet heavily on and I think for interest, I'll have a small E/W wager on Gloire D'Athon to outrun bet365's 16/1 price ticket. He'd not be an obvious winner, but his suitability for the test says he's too big at 16's.

Racing Insights, Saturday 25/11/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 11.00 Lingfield
  • 11.30 Lingfield
  • 12.20 Ascot
  • 1.50 Haydock
  • 2.13 Huntingdon
  • 2.20 Haydock

Harry Derham & Paul O'Brien team up with Scrum Diddly in one of our 'free' races, but only three are set to go to post, so we'll look elsewhere for today's preview. We'll stick with the TJC Report, though and see how the Williams/Deutsch combo get on with Eleanor Bob up against the Honeyball/Twiston-Davies team's Credo in the 3.35 Haydock, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 3m1½f on soft ground; a race won by Venetia Williams' Fontaine Collonges last year and the race where Sam Twiston-Davies won on Crievehill back in 2019...

All of the field step up at least one class to run here with the two at the bottom of the weights, stepping up two levels. One of our featured runners, Credo, is the only one coming here off the back of a win, but Sidi Ismael, Docpickedme, Coconut Splash, Wasdell Dundalk and Bali Body were all in the frame, whilst only Coconut Splash and Cap du Nord are winless in seven or more outings (13 and 7 respectively to be precise and the former is 0 from 13 over fences).

Most of the field have been seen in the last four weeks, but top-weight Sidi Ismael hasn't raced for almost eight months, whilst our other featured runner, Eleanor Bob, hasn't raced since falling at Fontwell almost 21 months ago and both might well need the run.

We don't have much in the way of course/distance form with only Haute Estime having a Haydock win (2m3f hurdle) under his belt, whilst Docpickedme's 3m1f chase win at Southwell and Bali Body's 3m2f hurdles win at Hereford are the closest we've got to a distance success, but Instant Expert says that most of the field have won a chase in the 3m to 3m2f range and that most have won on good to soft or soft ground, so that could be promising...

...unlike Coconut Splash's dismal record of 12 defeats on this going. Cap du Nord's win record at Class 2 leaves plenty to be desired, as does his 2 from 22 over similar trips. I think it's fair to assume I won't be backing either of these two to win here, even if their place stats are a little better...

based on the place stats, I'm more drawn to the likes of Credo, Bali Body and Wasdell Dundalk, who are likely to make their run for home quite late, if their last four outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it looks like Eleanor Bob and Docpickedme might be left to their own devices to set the tempo of the contest, but that hasn't always been a successful tactic over fences here at Haydock...

Summary

I was drawn to Credo, Bali Body and Wasdell Dundalk at the Instant Expert phase of my analysis and the fact that all three like to come late is a bonus, so I think I'm going to focus on this trio. Credo is one of our two featured runners, she's the only LTO winner in the pack and her yard is going really well right now. The trainer/jockey combo have had a great year together and at 11/2 with Hills, we might have a nice little bet on our hands.

Wasdell Dundalk has been running really well for some time now, finishing 11122 over the last three months and although he's up another 2lbs here, he could make his presence felt and a 17/2 E/W bet might not be the worst decision you make this weekend, whilst Bali Body is still unexposed over fences, but has made the frame is all three efforts to date, finishing 312. He defied a 701-day absence to finish third at Wetherby three weeks ago and although up in class here, he does receive weight all round and would be another to consider from an E/W perspective at 10/1 with Bet365 who'll pay four places here.

Racing insights, Thursday 23/11/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 12.20 Wincanton
  • 1.55 Thurles
  • 3.05 Thurles
  • 3.35 Newcastle
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

The last of that list is the highest-rated of the UK free races, so let's consider the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m6f on standard tapeta...

Our sole LTO winner, Sonnerie Power has left Roger Varian's yard in th elast five weeks and makes a debut for his new yard here, but is up two classes. Of his rivals, only Capital Theory was placed last time around and he's up one class here, as is bottom weight El Picador, who is one of five (along with Prydwen, Nolton Cross, Rhythmic Intent and Inuit) who have been beaten in at least their last seven races on the bounce.

Nolton Cross has been off the track the longest at 75 days, but that shouldn't really be an issue here and he's one of three (Prydwen and Capital Theory being the others) to have already won here at Wolverhampton, but only Zealandia had won over today's trip before.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, shows the field's success (or lack of) under similar conditions and we can show you Flat & A/W wins combined, as well as just the A/W data...

The obvious immediate standouts are Prydwen, Capital Theory and Nolton Cross, but they've hardly set the world on fire at Class 2 with just 2 combined wins from 31 efforts. Mind you, none of this field have particularly shone at this grade,but all bar Prydwen, Inuit, Sonnerie Power, El Picador and Oneforthegutter have won at Class 3.

When there's not much 'green' around on Instant Expert, I tend to then look at the place stats to see who might well run a decent race and be close to or in the frame, because one of those in the frame will go on to win! So here's the corresponding place data to those races above...

...where you could make a case for a handful of runners on Flat & A/W form, but the A/W data is considerably more clear-cut.

Somewhat unusually for a race of this distance, there is actually some semblance of a draw bias, although not huge with those drawn higher tending to do better from a win perspective...

...but this is somewhat tempered/conflicted by the PRB3 data which suggests the lower end of the draw tend to beat more rivals home...

...so maybe there's not a great deal to be made from the draw, I suppose it's down to how you interpret the data. What isn't in doubt, though, is the fact that front-runners really don't do very well over this type of contest...

...which, based on the evidence of the field's last few races, doesn't look too good for the likes of Capital Theory or Rhythmic Intent...

Summary

The two horses I like the most here, Chillingham and Capital Theory are the top two in the market at best prices of 9/2 and 5/1, but the former has little/no experience at trip/surface and the latter looks like failing to win by being the pace-maker. They're both more than capable of making the frame, but I'm not sure I want to put money on them and I think I'd like to focus on the others who made some appeal on Instant Expert ie Prydwen, Nolton Cross and Barenboim.

All three look like they could go well here and if I was pushed to nominate one as a potential winner, then it's be the 5/1 Nolton Cross who looks dangerous off his current mark. The other two might well need some luck in running, but at odds of around 9/1, they might well be of interest to E/W bettors.

PS No post tomorrow (Thursday for Friday) as I'm otherwise engaged, but back again with you on Friday.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/11/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Ffos Las
  • 2.30 Hexham
  • 3.50 Warwick
  • 5.45 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners of potential interest...

Both the 'free' list and the TS report have a Class 2 race amongst them, but the A/W option has more runners than the chase, so we're off to the 6.30 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W sprint handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Chipstead is the only one of the field to have made the frame last time out, having finished third of eight on heavy ground at Windsor a month ago. He's also the only entire horse in the filed, since Clarendon House has been gelded since his last run twenty weeks ago, but we do have a 3 yr old filly in the shape of Glorious Angel.

Despite no LTO winner, only Clarendon House, May Sonic and Mondammej come here on a string of seven or more consecutive defeats (7, 7, and 27 to be precise) and the latter won't be helped by stepping up a class, as does Alligator Alley.

Bottom weight Strong Johnson actually steps up two classes, but the filly, Glorious Angel, ran in a Listed race at Newcastle recently after three successive runner-up finishes at 5f and she's now down in trip and class here.

We know that Clarendon House might need a run after twenty weeks off and Rocket Rodney's four month break might also pose problems, but the rest of the field have raced in the last month with Strong Johnson spotted at Newcastle last Friday!

All nine runners have won at least once over today's trip and both Alligator Alley and Mondammej are former course and distance winners. In fact, the latter won this race two years ago, but hasn't won any of twenty-seven races since, which is why Instant Expert below shows him racing off a mark 11lbs lower than his last win...

...where the two former C&D winners, Alligator Alley & Mondammej look best suited, but don't forget to factor in the latter's recent poor form. There's no data above for the two returning from a break, as both Clarendon House and Rocket Rodney are making A/W debuts here. The subsequent pace stats from those races above again paint Mondammej in a favourable light...

...and it's worth noting that although his last win was 2 days shy of 2 years ago, his 2-year place stats look like this...

...suggesting that whilst he'd be a surprising winner, he could well make the frame. His cause, however, won't be helped by being drawn in stall 8...

...over a course and distance where the first five stalls seem to be the place to be...

That said, a wide draw isn't necessarily a lost cause, if he can get out quickly...

...and this is backed up by our pace/draw heat map. which also offers a little surprise with the draw...

Sadly for Mondammej, that's where the good news quickly starts and finishes, as his last four outings suggest that he's going to be well down the pecking order for early pace...

...and that we should be looking at the top end of this chart for our 'most likelys' and if we put them in draw order, look at their last three runs and place them onto the heat map, we get...

...with the feeling that Chipstead gets to the bend first followed by Glorious Angel with Alligator Alley hoping the bend keeps him ahead of Clarendon House.

Summary

Based on the pace/draw situation, the two I like most here are Chipstead and Glorious Angel with Alligator Alley looking a danger to them. The latter was the pick of the pack on Instant Expert, too, so these are my shortlisted three for the frame.

Had this not been Chipstead's tapeta debut, then I'd have been backing him at 13/2 (Hills, only price on offer at 4.15pm) and that's a little shorter than I normally place E/W bets at, but your cutoff might be different. I think he holds the filly, Glorious Angel, at bay but she's not a bad bet for the places and at 7/1, you could be tempted there too.

As for Alligator Alley, he ran better than the bare result suggested at Newcastle recently, he's a former course and distance winner and has won four of his last seven on tapeta making him my pick here. his 4/1 ticket isn't massively generous, but probably worth taking.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/11/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with all three at least worth a second glance and we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.55 Limerick
  • 6.15 Wolverhampton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford
  • 8.15 Wolverhampton

...and whilst I do normally try to 'marry up' the free feature with the free racecards, Alafdhal's race looks a bit of a stinker if truth be told, but the one before it looks better as it's as highly-rated a contest as you'll find in the UK on Tuesday. It is, of course, the 6.30 Chelmsford, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Baldomero has made the frame in his last two and in four of five despite not winning, whilst all bar bottom-weight Night On Earth (10 successive defeats) of his rivals have managed to win at least one of their last six.

Most of the field are dropping in class, as only Probe, Celsius and Night On Earth raced (unplaced) at Class 3 last time around, the others all dropp a class from Class 2, except Zaman Jemil who ran in a Listed race at Redcar. That was 37 days ago and most of the field have raced in the last two to ten weeks, but Celsius could be excused for needing a run after a six-month absence.

Probe has won over this trip at Newmarket and Wolverhampton with Zaman Jemil also having two wins at 6f; Newcastle & Thirsk, whilst Justcallmepete and Above are both course and distance winners with former also successful at Lingfield and Southwell over 6f on the A/W, as seen on Instant Expert...

...where Justcallmepete looks to be the best suited and probable market leader Baldomero seems to be all at sea. Mind you, he has only won 2 of 30 career starts (2/20 on the A/W), so I'm hoping his place stats paint him in a better light...

...and indeed they do. That said, on basic percentage terms he's only fourth on going, third on class and fourth on trip and I think Justcallmepete still looks better suited to these expected conditions. This pair will emerge from opposite ends of the stalls with our Draw Analyser suggesting that Baldomero is at the better end of the draw...

That doesn't mean that Justcallmepete can't/won't win, of course. He might well be one of the 9.38% of those drawn higher than 7 who go on to win here and if he has the right pace profile to win, then he'll have every chance. The Pace Analyser for those nearly-300 races above won't come as a surprise to many of you...

...nor, I suppose, will this pace/draw heat map...

So, the question is, who will take the races by the horns and go for it from the off? Well, if we look at this field's most recent efforts, you've have to say that Baldomero is far more likley to be up with the pace than Justcallmepete...

...and the resulting pace draw heat map...

...also says Baldomero.

Summary

Baldomero is probably the best runner in the race, he scored well on the Instant Expert place stats, is ideally drawn and seems to have the right pace profile for the contest and that's probably why he's the current (Monday 3.25pm) 11/4 favourite, but I can't be backing him at that price. Yes, he's consistent with 11 top-3 finishes from his last 20 outings, but he's a consistent loser, too, having failed to win any of those twenty races. I know that all runs come to an end at some point, but 11/4 about a horse on a 20-race losing streak, a 1 from 12 record on standard A/W, 0 from 6 at Class 3 and the same over 6f just doesn't scream value to me. I know he was only beaten by a short head last time out, but he's been raised 2lbs for that defeat, so I'll leave him.

Justcallmepete makes more sense to me at 9/2 which is probably a fair price. Yes, he's going to need a bit of luck overcoming pace and draw stats, but he has two good runs (a win and a runner-up) here over course and distance, so he knows what this place is all about and I'd rather back him than the fav.

Of the rest Zaman Jemil is interesting, a win and two places from his last five, he makes a polytrack debut here down in both class and trip and boasting a 1 from 1 record on the A/W so far, might well be involved in the shake-up, especially if towed along by Baldomero early doors.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/11/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 12.30 Plumpton
  • 3.20 Plumpton
  • 4.30 Kempton
  • 6.00 Kempton

The 'best' of those races would appear to be the 3.20 Plumpton, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m1f on good to soft/soft ground...

NO RISK WITH LOU won on his hurdles debut a year ago and then also won on his chase debut at Huntingdon last time out, making virtually all on his way to a 7-lengfth success five weeks ago. Up 8lbs for the win, but should go well again.

RED WINDSOR made the frame in three (won once) of his five hurdles outings, but looked like he needed the run when last of 4 (85 lengths adrift) on chasing debut six weeks ago. He jumped well enough but just seemed to run out of steam.

GITCHE GUMEE won a bumper on debut in March '22 and then won next time out on hurdles debut some seven months later. Aside from a fall at Southwell two starts ago, has hurdled well in five subsequent runs and now makes a chasing & handicap debut seven months after his last outing.

KOTMASK started his career with back to back wins over hurdles (one at Class 2) and last season's hurdle form read 4322. Made a chasing debut at Kempton four weeks ago and defied a seven month layoff to finish third, beaten by less than seven lengths and should improve for the experience and for having had a run.

BONARC has yet to make the frame in five efforts over fences and has lost his last ten races in total since a win at Kilbeggan 18 months ago. His last run run saw him finish last of four at Sligo, some 47 lengths adrift and others look better placed here.

AVILES has been a runner-up in all five UK starts to date, including today (Sunday) at Fontwell, which puts his participation here in doubt, but having only gone down by a nose on chasing debut today, could be dangerous off a lowly mark of just 104.

All bar Aviles (obviously) and Red Windsor have scored over this type of trip in the UK, but we've no former course winners, according to Instant Expert...

...which suggests that Bonarc might well be all at sea on the going and at this grade, whilst his record at the trip is no better, so I'm happy to rule him out of contention right away. Elsewhere, we've admittedly not much data to work with, but Kotmask does at least seem like he'll relish the softness of the turf and that thought is backed up by his place data...

...which also highlights Aviles' continued door-knocking.

Pace is Monday's free feature and a quick click of the PACE tab for this race brings us to a screen like this...

...which suggests that Red Windsor will set the pace and Bonarc will be held up and if we consult our Pace Analyser for similar past races...

...we see that those racing further forward fare best, but leaders find themselves prone to being picked up by the stalking prominent runner late on. This looks better news for Aviles & No Risk With Lou than the others.

Summary

I don't like Bonarc at all, Gitche Gumme makes a handicap/chasing debut after a long layoff and pace-setter Red Windsor has a tendency to fade late on, so I'm against these three.

No Risk With Lou was very impressive on chase debut last time out and there's probably more to come from him, he fits the pace profile well and should put a decent effort in here, even if Instant Expert is against him. Kotmask was the pick on Instant Expert and was in good hurdling form last season. He has had the benefit of a recent pipe-opener over fences and should go well again, but the pace stats are against him, whilst Aviles is ultra-consistent (five runner-up finishes on the bonce) but always finds one too good for him.

None of the trip are a shoo-in, but 9/4 fav No Risk With Lou probably shades it based on his winning run last time out with little to separate the other pair, providing Aviles runs, that is.

Racing Insights, Saturday 18/11/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.35 Cheltenham
  • 1.19 Wetherby
  • 2.01 Lingfield
  • 2.12 Uttoxeter
  • 2.29 Wetherby
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

And with the weather in mind, I'm playing it relatively safe by heading for the A/W (whilst my wife goes to Uttoxeter!) and 2.01 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Top weight Greatgadian is our sole LTO winner, but Regheeb is two from three in the UK and Udaberri was a runner-up 16 days ago. Udaberri, however, is one of just two (along with Throne Hall) without a win in seven or more outings and he's up two classes here which probably won't help to improve his 0/12 record on the A/W!

Top-weight and LTO winner Greatgadian is up one class, as is Citizen General but Storm Catcher, Forca Timao and Thundering all drop down from Class 2. This will be Regheeb's second run in a handicap and his first outing since being gelded, whilst Expressionless wears cheekpieces for the second time.

Thundering was last seen seven weeks ago and Citizen General has had 12 weeks off, but the rest of the pack have raced in the past five weeks with five of them seen this month already.

Despite his inexperience, Regheeb has already won over course and distance and Citizen General won here over 1m5f back in May, whilst Greatgadian, Storm Catcher, Throne Hall and Thundering have all won over similar trips elsewhere as documented by Instant Expert which suggests the lower half of the draw is stronger or better suited than the higher half...

The only cause for concern above might be the apparent 13lbs difference between Citizen General's mark of 88 as opposed to his victory off 75 here in May, but he has since won off 80 on turf, so whilst he still needs a career best effort to win here, the gulf isn't quite as large. The subsequent place stats make Udaberri's form a little more appealing, but I'm already doubting his chances here...

As you've probably guessed, Expressionless makes an A/W debut after eight mainly soft/heavy ground outings on turf where he has two wins and a place after landing back to back soft ground 1m½f contests in April this year.

Our Draw Analyser says that there shouldn't be too much of a bias at play here, but if any stall are more favourable than others, then the first four stalls are the place to be and with the lower draws having the best of it from Instant Expert, that might be the place to focus upon...

And whilst there might no be much in the draw, that's certainly not the case with pace/tempo/tactics, as our Pace Analyser clearly suggests that those racing prominently or leading fare best here...

...with the low drawn prominent/leading runners enjoying the most success...

If we then look at how this field have approached their most recent races...

...you'd suspect the early pace is going to come from one or more of Throne Hall, Forca Timao, Regheeb or Citizen General and they take their places on the heat map as follows...

...assuming, of course, they run how they have tended to of late.

From the heat map alone, Regheeb is the one who interests me most, especially if he allows Throne hall to do the running and he just sits in behind.

Summary

I think I want to be amongst those drawn lowest and they have the best Instant Expert scores and with pace in mind, the one I'm looking at is Regheeb at 7/2 (Bet365). He's drawn low, has the ideal pace profile, he's lightly raced but has won 2 of his 3 UK starts, including a course and distance success at this grade back in September.

Greatgadian is the 9/4 or 5/2 fav here and he ticks plenty of boxes, but his lack of early pace might cost him the race. This lack of pace throughout the field might lead to an unfancied runner nicking some of the place money and if that happens, then the 11/1 Forca Timao might well be able to take advantage from out wide.

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