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Sunday TV Horse Racing Trends: 4th Feb 2024

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The ITV Racing cameras are in action in Scotland and Ireland this Sunday – taking in five races at each Leopardstown at the Dublin Racing Festival and another five north of the border at Musselburgh.

At Leopardstown, the Dublin Chase and Irish Champion Hurdle headline as Cheltenham Festival hopefuls El Fabiolo and State Man are in action.

While at Musselburgh their top card is spearheaded by the Scottish Champion Chase.

Let's take a look at the live ITV races and the key trends, plus trainer and jockey stats.

Leopardstown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/Racing TV)

1:10 Leopardstown Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m5f ITV

8/10 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/10 – Ridden by Paul Townend
Trainer Willie Mullins has an 18% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Emmet Mullins is 0-from-20 with his hurdlers at the track

1:40 Leopardstown Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

9/10 – Trained by Willie Mullins
8/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
4/10 – Ridden by Danny Mullins (2) or Paul Townend (2)
4/10 – Winning favourites
Trainer Willie Mullins has an 18% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Thomas Mullins is 0-from-33 with his hurdlers at the track

2:10 Leopardstown Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m1f ITV

6/6 – Trained by Willie Mullins
5/6 – Winning favourites
4/6 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
3/6 – Ridden by Paul Townend (3 of the last 4)
2/6 – Ridden by Danny Mullins
Gentleman De Mee won this race in 2023
Trainer Willie Mullins has an 19% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Henry De Bromhead is just 7-from-99 with his chasers at the track

2:45 Leopardstown Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+) 2m ITV

19/20 – Placed in the top three last time
17/20 – Raced within the last 2 months
17/20 – Had won at Leopardstown before
17/20 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Rated 158 or higher
16/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
16/20 – Won last time out
14/19 – Went onto finish in the top six of that season’s Champion Hurdle
15/20 – Winning favourites
12/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/20 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
11/20 – Irish bred
7/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (7 of last 13 runnings)
5/20 - Trained by Henry De Bromhead (4 of the last 7 runnings)
5/19 – Went onto win the Champion Hurdle
3 of the last 15 winners were second season hurdlers
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 2/1

3:20 Leopardstown O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (5yo+) 2m5f ITV

8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
4/10 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
2/10 - Winning favourite
2/10 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (2 of the last 7)
The Goffer won the race in 2023
Birchdale won the race in 2022
Trainer Enda Bolger is 2 from 8 with his chasers at the track
Trainer Henry De Bromhead is just 7-from-99 with his chasers at the track
Trainer Joseph O’Brien is just 3-from-42 with his chasers at the track

Musselburgh Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ Racing TV)

1:20 Musselburgh bet365 Scottish Triumph Hurdle (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Listed Race) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo) 1m7½f ITV

8/9 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of the last 7)
3/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 8)
2/9 – Ridden by Harry Cobden (2 of the last 4)
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 37% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Olly Murphy has a 36% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Iain Jardine is just 5-from-97 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Harry Cobden has a 54% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 21% record riding over hurdles at the track

1:50 Musselburgh Never Ordinary At bet365 Handicap Chase Cl3 (5yo+ 0-125) 2m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 21% record riding over fences at the track

2:25 Musselburgh bet365 Scottish Supreme Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m7½f ITV

8/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Aged 5
2/8 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/8 – Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/8 – Winning favourite
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 37% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley has a 29% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer John C McConnell has a 21% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Harry Cobden has a 54% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Paddy Brennan has a 29% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 21% record riding over hurdles at the track

3:00 Musselburgh Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+ 0-145) 3m ITV

7/8 – Aged 7 or younger
6/8 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
5/8 – Carried 10-7 or less
4/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/8 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
Trainer David Killahena & Graeme McPherson have a 67% strike-rate with their hurdlers at the track
Trainer Ann Hamilton has a 50% strike-rate with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 37% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer John C McConnell has a 21% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Iain Jardine is just 5-from-97 with his hurdlers at the track
Jockey Harry Cobden has a 54% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Paddy Brennan has a 29% record riding over hurdles at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 21% record riding over hurdles at the track

3:35 Musselburgh bet365 Scottish Champion Chase (For The Bowes-Lyon Trophy) Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4½f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Ann Hamilton has a 40% strike-rate with her chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Harry Cobden has a 67% record riding over fences at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes has a 21% record riding over fences at the track

Racing Insights, Friday 02/02/24

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have sadly produced no UK qualifiers, but thankfully our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.25 Southwell
  • 4.25 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.15 Newcastle

Our UK free races are a Class 4 Novice hurdle and a Class 6 A/W sprint, neither of which really appeal to me, so I'm going to have a look elsewhere and I've spotted a stayers' contest on testing ground that might be interesting. It's the 3.35 Catterick, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m1½f on soft ground that may be heavy in places...

Shantou Moon and Champ Royal both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last four, but steps up a class here, as does Not Staying Long who won three races ago. Danny The Fence won four starts back, Sam's Choice won five back and Shantou Moon 7 races ago.

Only Guernesey and Balkotic have failed to win in seven and their losing runs currently stand at 10 and 7 races respectively. Guernesey might find this a little easier in first-time cheekpieces as he now drops down a level, whilst top-weight Sam's Choice is down two classes.

The entire field have raced in the last 18 to 45 days, so no fitness excuses are to be expected and the bottom three on the card, Not Staying Long, Shantou Moon and Balkotic are all course and distance winners with Shantou Moon achieving the feat last time out three weeks ago and is raised 4lbs for that run, as shown on Instant Expert...

Shantou Moon looks the pick there off an admittedly small number of races and he won well here over course and distance last time out. Guernesey has a couple of Class 4 wins under his belt but has yet to win in seven on soft ground, which would be a concern if he hadn't made the frame in three of them as seen below where Sam's Choice and Balkotic are also of interest...

Our Pace Analyser suggests that there are rewards for those willing to take the race on and set the tempo...

...which based on recent efforts, would appear to be another positive for Balkotic...

...although Shantou Moon did win here over course and distance on soft ground from a hold-up position three weeks ago.

Summary

Fairly straightforward race for me to quickly zip through. Shantou Moon won well here last time out on soft ground, isn't raised too much by the assessor, scores well enough on Instant Expert and should be the one to beat here. His pace profile suggests he'd find it difficult and that might well be the case if there were a few keen to get on with it, but there isn't, so I'd still side with the 4/1 (Hills @ 5.1pm) Shantou Moon here.

On his day, the 6/1 (Bet365) Guernesey would be my second option and he wasn't beaten by far at Kelso the last time he ran at this grade finishing second just three quarters of a length adrift two months ago off today's mark and a similar run here puts him very much in contention for at least a place, as should/could Balkotic's early pace, especially if he's allowed a soft lead. He was a runner-up here over course and distance last time out off this mark and will fancy it again. He's currently 13/2 and with bookies paying three places, both he and Guernesey could be viable E/W options.

Racing Insights, Thursday 01/02/24

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.45 Wincanton
  • 3.30 Ffos Las
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

...and it's the last of that trio that is the highest rated, so I'll focus on the 7.30 Chelmsford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

My immediate thoughts were that whilst this isn't a great race, it looks very competitive, so let's look at the card and take away what we already know.

Twilight Madness and Level Up both won last time out, but the latter is now up in class. Pop Dancer and Reigning Profit were both runners-up LTO and both won three races ago. Top weight Rocking Ends drops in class and wears a visor for the first time as he aims to end a sequence of ten defeats after winning three of his first eight career starts. Crimson Sand also won three of his first eight, but is 0 from 17 since, but he is noted on the card as a fast finisher.

All seven have raced in the last five weeks and all have won over today's trip already with Pop Dancer our sole course and distance winner, whilst Crimson Sand's last win was on this track albeit over 6f back in August 2021. Feature of the day Instant Expert shows how the field have fared in past races under similar conditions...

...and the verdict is that they've not quite set the world alight. My causes for concern above include Crimson Sand (going/course/distance), Dynamic Force (generally), Pop Dancer (class) and Reigning Profit (going/distance) and I've got to hope that the place form stacks up better than the above...

...which, in fairness, it does to an extent. I've still concerns over Dynamic Force generally, Pop Dancer (class) and Reigning Profit (class), though and the latter is now rated some 10lbs higher than his last win.  Rocking Ends, Crimson Sand, Twilight Madness and Level Up score best above and they're spread across the stalls in boxes 1, 2, 4 & 7 over a course and distance that has slightly favoured those drawn lower in the past...

...but let's not beat about the bush here, this is 5f at Chelmsford and the draw plays second fiddle to the pace setup and this is how those 180+ races above has been won...

...where the basic premise is to get out quickly and stay out as long as you can and if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by, an 18th successive defeat is on the cards for Crimson Sand...

Summary

Twilight Madness, Level Up, Pop Dancer and Reigning Profit were the pick on form with Rocking Ends, Crimson Sand, Twilight Madness and Level Up the takeaways from our free feature, Instant Expert. The pace profiles effectively wrote Crimson Sand off, leaving us with Twilight Madness and Level Up ticking all three boxes (form/IE/pace). Both won last time out and I fancy both to have a good chance of making the frame with Twilight Madness my marginal pick of the two.

With six runners priced between 9/2 and 7/1 at 4.45pm, only Rocking Ends' 10/1 ticket is worth considering as an E/W option, but he'd be well down my list of options here and the role of market outsider is probably right.

You can make a case for any of the other six here, it's that competitive, but I'd suggest the 9/2 Twilight Madness to beat the 5/1 Level Up.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 31/01/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Exeter
  • 2.35 Dundalk
  • 2.45 Exeter
  • 4.45 Exeter

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and I think we'll see how in-form Tom Lacey might get on with Nocte Volatus in the 3.55 Leicester, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 2m4f on soft ground...

Only Sheldon managed to win last time out, but both Grandad's Cottage and Nocte Volatus made the frame, but the latter is the only runner in the race without a win in his last four starts, having been beaten in each of his last ten since winning at Huntingdon almost eleven months ago.

LTO winner Sheldon is our only class mover, stepping up a level from his Boxing Day Wincanton triumph, whilst top-weight Grandad's Cottage wears a tongue-tie for the first and it'll be bottom-weight Will Sting's first outing since recent wind surgery.

Jet Plane, Another Crick, Oxygen and Will Sting have all had one unsuccessful run at this track, but all of the field bar Jet Plane have won over today's trip, according to the racecard and this is confirmed by Instant Expert who highlights Grandad's Cottage as being the one best suited by conditions...

Oxygen is 2 from 2 on Good to Soft ground, which is good to know in case the track dries out any by race time. Jet Plane would like that to happen too and Nocte Volatus' record at class/trip is typical of his overall form, where he has won just 3 of 24 career starts, but has made the frame in 8 of 15 over fences...

...making him a regular E/W prospect under similar conditions, whilst Jet Plane, Will Sting and Sheldon look vulnerable on the above data. If recent performances are anything to go by, then Grandad's Cottage and Jet Plane might well take a back seat in the early stages whilst the others scrap it out up front...

...although Sheldon and Oxygen don't normally get involved very early despite doing so last time out and sitting back might well be the best option for those with hopes of winning...

...although leaders do often holds on for a place.

Summary

Short and sweet today, hopefully. Nocte Volatus doesn't win often enough and is on a long losing run. Jet Plane, Will Sting and Sheldon look vulnerable on Instant Expert, where Another crick looks more like a placer than a winner, which leaves me with top-weight Grandad's Cottage and Oxygen as the two I probably like best here.

Oxygen is 6lbs higher than his last win and was well beaten off this mark last time out, whilst Grandad's Cottage is effectively 5lbs lower than his last win, thanks to his jockey's claim and whilst only third of six last time around, that looks a better race than the Novice event Oxygen lost by 22 lengths, so I'll take the 7/2 (Bet365 & Hills at 4pm) Grandad's Cottage to beat the 3/1 (Hills) fav Oxygen here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/10/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...with Issuing Authority of most immediate interest whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 1.25 Limerick
  • 4.10 Newcastle
  • 4.20 Limerick
  • 6.00 Southwell

Supremely West from The Shortlist runs in one of the day's four joint highest-rated (it's a fairly low bar mind)races, the 2.45 Chepstow, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

My initial thoughts were that main players here would be Cuthbert Dibble, Supremely West and Jaminska with all three relatively unexposed in handicap company; Supremely West in on handicap debut (as is Heros de Romay), whilst Cuthbert Dibble and Supremely West both make just their second start in handicaps, as does Jack In The Box who will be blinkered/tongue tied for the first time today.

We've also got plenty of class movement here with the top three on the card Cuthbert Dibble, Heros de Romay and Supremely West all up one level from Class 4, as is the 13yr old veteran Totterdown, whilst bottom weight Jaminska drops two classes a month after finishing third of six in a Listed race at Taunton. Heros de Romay was also third last time out, having finished 121 in his previous three career runs. Supremely West was a runner-up at Southwell after winning five of hiss previous six outings (inc 3 x NHF wins), whilst our sole LTO winner, Cuthbert Dibble now returns from almost ten months off the track since winning two of his last three.

Current Mood has been off even longer at 404 days (the remainder have all raced in the last seven weeks), but has already won a Class 4, 2m½f Novice hurdle here on soft ground with Heros de Romay's heavy ground course and distance win on his penultimate start being the only other Chepstow success from this group, mind you four of these have never been here before, but all bar Current Mood, Totterdown and Jaminska have already managed to win over a similar trip, according to Instant Expert...

Bashful Boy's record at Class 3 is poor at 1 from 13 and that's the biggest concern from the above graphic. We've three heavy ground winners, of course, which is a positive, whilst Cuthbert Dibble and Supremely West are 2 from 3 and 3 from 3 respectively on soft ground, The place data suggests we focus on the top half of the card which consists of the three I though most likely plus Heros de Romay...

The key to success here at Chepstow on heavy ground has been to be up with the pace...

...with those leading or racing prominently claiming 77.8% of the wins and 68.1% of the placers from just 48.4% of the runners with those willing to set the pace faring best of all, which based on this field's last four outings...

...would be a further blow to Current Mood, Jack In The Box and Bashful Boy. The veteran Totterdown in the most likely pacemaker, but at just one win in four years I can't see him hanging on now up in both trip and class.

Summary

My initial thoughts were that main players here would be Cuthbert Dibble, Supremely West and Jaminska and I've not seen anything to dissuade me. Heros de Romay scored well on Instant Expert and likes to get on with things, so he's also in the mix.

Cuthbert Dibble is the 2/1 favourite with Hills (the only book open at 3.30pm Monday), but that looks short about a horse off the track for ten months, up in class, winless on heavy ground and who tends to be held up off the pace. He might well end up being the best of this whole group and might also win this race, but 2/1 is too short for me and I think the in-form Supremely West from The Shortlist offers much better value at 5/1.

He won by 12 lengths and 5 lengths at Carlisle and Sedgefield in the autumn before finishing second at Southwell last time out, running into one who looks like he might go places. he's 1 from 1 on heacvy, 3 from 3 on soft and has finished 12112 in five starts under today's jockey. I thought he might have been around 4/1 or even shorter, so win or lose I think there's a bit of value at 5's.

Of the other two in the top half of the card, I marginally prefer Jaminska, the market marginally prefers Heros de Romay but with them both around the 7/2 to 4/1 mark we agree that there's little between them and neither are E/W options! After these four at 5/1 and shorter, the other half of the field are 11/1 and longer, but I'm struggling to make an E./W case for any!

Racing Insights, Monday 29/01/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.40 Punchestown
  • 2.20 Plumpton
  • 3.10 Punchestown
  • 4.50 Wolverhampton

Monday racing is generally quite poor and today is no exception; our two 'free' UK races are a 6-runner, Class 5 chase and a Class 6 A/W handicap, so I'm going to have a look at one of the day's joint highest-rated in the UK, the 3.20 Plumpton, which at just over £9200 to the winner is also the day's biggest prize. The race itself could be a good test of stamina being a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m1f (plus another two-thirds of a furlong for rail movements) on soft ground that should be a little better in places...

On bare finishing positions, For Gina's 3332121 looks the best on paper and she's the only LTO winner in the field, but she is up 2 classes here. Fellow mare Lassue has also been in good form (21133 so far over hurdles) and she actually drops down from Class 2 here, as do top-weight Diesel d'Allier and Ilovethenightlife, who has won two of her last five.

Hasty Parisien is the only one winless in seven or more, having lost 15 on the bounce in a career that has seen him win just one of twenty starts and he's the most experienced runner in the field, whilst the least exposed, Doughmore Bay has only made three starts and this will be only his second run in a handicap, having finished 7th of 20 over 2m5f at Cheltenham last time out. That was 73 days ago and all his rivals have raced since then, but all have had at least three weeks rest.

Instant Expert looks like this today...

...but doesn't give us too many clues this time, if truth be told, although it does cast more doubt upon Hasty Parisian, whose 1 from 8 in this grade isn't great. Lassue will like the ground and For Gina will get the trip readily enough, but she is up in class here.  The place data doesn't really help Hasty Parisian either...

Pace is today's free feature and we look at the Pace tab, we can look at how the field have approached their last four races and how their average pace rating over those races stacks up against their rivals as follows...

We don't seem to have a genuine front-runner in the pack and the onus might well fall upon For Gina and/or Hasty Parisian to set the tempo of the race with  Monjules the back marker and the likes of Ilovethenightlife and Lassue just further ahead in what technically would then be classed as mid-division and that's probably the best place to be based on the limited pace data we have from similar races here at Hereford...

Summary

I see this as being a three-horse race between (alphabetically) Doughmore Bay, Ilovethenightlife and Lassue with Ilovethenightlife being my marginal choice at 5/1 (as of 7.20pm Sunday). She was in great form last season and looked like she was crying our for a further/tougher task last time out.

As for Lassue and Doughmore Bay, I see little between them and either could well make the frame, but at best prices of 2/1 and 4/1, I'll leave them alone.

 

2024 Great Yorkshire Chase Trends

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Staged at Doncaster racecourse the Great Yorkshire Chase (formerly the Skybet Chase) is a Premier Handicap run over 3m. The race can often throw up some Grand National clues, although no winner in the last 16 runnings has gone onto win the Aintree marathon.

In recent years, the Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Pipe stables have dominated the race with two wins a-piece since 2003, while in the last 18 runnings we’ve seen just two winning favourites.

We look back at recent winners (note, the 2010 and 2011 runnings were abandoned) and gives you the key stats to take into the 2024 renewal – this year being run on Saturday 27th January.

==========================================

Recent Skybet Chase Winners

2023 – COOPER’S CROSS (16/1)
2022 – WINDSOR AVENUE (40/1)
2021 - TAKINGRISKS (40/1)
2020 – OK CORRAL (9/1)
2019 - GO CONQUER
2018 - WAKANDA (8/1)
2017 – ZIGA BOY (10/1)
2016 – ZIGA BOY (8/1)
2015 – IF IN DOUBT (4/1 fav)
2014 – RAINBOW HUNTER (25/1)
2013 – Meeting Abandoned
2012 – CALGARY BAY (12/1)
2009 – BIG FELLA THANKS (9/2)
2008 – AN ACCORDION (11/2 fav)
2007 – SIMON (7/1)
2006 – A GLASS IN THYNE (16/1)
2005 – COLOURFUL LIFE (9/1)
2004 – TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN (7/1)
2003 – BARRYSCOURT LAD (9/2)

Skybet Chase Betting Trends

17/18 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
15/18 – Carried 11-2 or less
14/18 – Officially rated 130 or higher
13/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/18 – Aged 9 or younger12/18 – Irish bred
11/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
11/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/18 – Carried 10-12 or less
10/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/1

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
6 of the last 17 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

 

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Racing Insights, Saturday 27/01/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

 

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.15 Fairyhouse
  • 4.10 Cheltenham
  • 5.15 Newcastle
  • 5.45 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Kempton

Messrs Lacey & Iles have a good record over the last year together, whilst the O'Brien/Brennan combo have a 50% strike rate at Doncaster in recent years and both have runners (Luttrell Lad & Punctuation) in the 12.55 Doncaster, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on good ground...

More runners here than I'm generally comfortable with, but I'm hoping the race will afford me some decent-priced E/W angles.

Geronimo and Rich Spirit both won LTO, whilst Wolf Prince, Luttrell Lad and Call of the Wild were all runners-up. Aside from Sans Bruit (useful French hurdler & chaser now making a handicap debut over hurdles), who has no UK form to call upon, all bar Wolf Prince have won at least one of their last seven but he's winless in twelve and despite finishing 232 in his last three, he's not for me after a 532-day absence.

Rich Spirit also makes a handicap debut here and steps up two classes which will make life tougher than he found it in his 10-length victory at Catterick a week before Christmas. Call of the Wild, In From The Cold and Alien Storm all step one class too, whilst the top two in the weights, No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation both drop in class. Not only is French raider Sans Bruit making both a UK and a handicap debut, he's had wind surgery during a 231-day absence from the track. Of the remainder, Alfie Storm has had a three-month break with everyone else seeing some action in the last ten weeks; In From The Cold ran just a fortnight ago.

The Big Bite, Call of the Wild and Geronimo are all former Doncaster winners, whilst No Ordinary Joe, Punctuation, The Big Bite, Sans Bruit, Geronimo and Rich Spirit have all managed to win over a similar trip to this one...

Instant Expert above doesn't have a great deal of relevant past data, but Geronimo seems pretty well suited by conditions ahead, whilst the biggest concern is probably Wolf Prince's 1 from 10 record at the trip. Mind you, I'm not backing him anyway! As I'm going to be looking for some E/W plays today, let's check the place stats from those races above...

...where No Ordinary Joe, Punctuation, Wolf Prince (!), Call of the Wild, Geronimo and Luttrell Lad are the ones with the mainly green records. Wolf Prince is actually nagging me now because he looks well suited for the task and was running well before his lengthy absence. Something for me to ponder, after I've considered the pace angles around a race that has tended to suit front-runners in the past...

A quick click of the pace button on the racecard then tells me that Luttrell Lad, Geronimo and guess who, Wolf Prince are the likely front-runners/pacemakers here...

Summary

The two runners I like most in this field are actually No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation, but possibly/probably not for this race!

No Ordinary Joe was a very useful hurdler last season, but flopped on his chase debut two months ago after having an eight month break. He should strip fitter for having had that run, but shouldn't be suited by the pace here. He hasn't tackled a hurdle since mid-April and might just need another run to get going and as such, a 4.10pm price of 17/2 seems fair.

Punctuation comes from the TJC Report and scored well off a small sample size on Instant Expert. Like No Ordinary Joe, he drops in class here and also seems unsuited by the pace set-up and at 16lbs higher than his last hurdles win and up in trip, he might not have enough in reserve to get home. His 9/1 price offers a little more value than No Ordinary Joe, though.

So where next? Well, we're back to the pace/Instant Expert combo...the previously-discussed No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation were highlighted by Instant Expert for place results along with the nagging itch Wolf Prince, Call of the Wild, Geronimo and Luttrell Lad, whilst Luttrell Lad, Geronimo and Wolf Prince were our pace horses and it's this trio that I'm going to look at next.

Luttrell Lad also comes from the TJC Report and as well as winning three starts ago was a one-length runner-up off today's mark last time out at the same class, trip and going as this race. A similar run puts him right on the shortlist here and could be a decent E/W prospect at 15/2. Wolf Prince is the one I wanted to ignore after such a long break, but he seems to be everywhere I turn. If he's race fit, then he should relish conditions and if allowed to control the race from the front, could easily stay in contention to the end. I suspect the market will be the key to his chances between now and race time, but his current 10/1 ticket would suggest he has chances of making the frame.

And finally, to the horse I like best for the race, Geronimo, he comes here after a great run of form, he won LTO under today's jockey and is only up 2lbs. He was the eyecatcher from instant Expert and is sure to be up with the pace. He's currently also 9/1 and that looks a really good E/W option to me.

To be honest, all five of these could well make the frame and all are at E/W backable prices. The bookies are paying four places, so you could play more than once, but good luck and have a great wekend.

 

 

 

Racing Insights, Friday 26/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.15 Sandown
  • 1.27 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 6.45 Wolverhampton

...but I'm going elsewhere for today's race preview and plumping for one of the day's joint highest rated contests, the 3.35 Sandown, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on soft ground that will hopefully throw up some interesting E/W options from the following...

Issam, Spring Note and Clondaw Royale all won last time out. Chez Hans was a faller on his last run, having won each of his previous five, but an 878 day absence casts doubts on him here. Mullinaree has won four of his last seven, Lord of Cheshire os three from five and a runner-up LTO, Issam is two from three, as is East India Express, whilst Bashers Reflection is three from five.

So, plenty in decent nick, but top weight Jatiluwih is the only one without a win in seven, having been beaten in eleven on the bounce since a win at Cheltenham way back in November 2019. Last seen on New Year's Day finishing last of ten, he can join Chez Hans on my reject list, as can Robin's Dream who makes just a second handicap start some 382 days after his last run, when only third of four runners. Should he actually run here, it will be only his second outing since the end of May 2021, so he's likely to be rusty.

The two long-standing absentees aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last four to eight weeks. Of the ten still under consideration, three (Gytename, Sholokjack and Bashers Reflection) are down a class, whilst three others (Lord of Cheshire, Clondaw Royale (hcp debut today) & Havaila are up one class with four
(Mullinaree, Issam, Spring Note, & handicap debutant East India Express) having raced at this Class 3 level.

None of this field have won here at Sandown before, but only Sholokjack, Issam, Robin's Dream and Havaila (twice) have run here before, sharing just five appearances. Trip-wise, only Issam, East India Express and Robin's Dream are yet to win over a similar trip and we can assess going/class/course/distance records at a glance via Instant Expert...

...which despite a fair smattering of red, doesn't hold too many horror stories. Lord of Cheshire carries 10lbs more than his last win, but is in good nick. Spring Note is up 13lbs for cantering home 16 lengths clear last time, but won still have won comfortably off today's mark.

Despite the soft ground, I'd expect there to be quite a bit of early pace to this one, if the field's last few runs are anything to go by...

...with at least half of the field usually keen to get on with things. The danger, of course is that they can't all lead, so some might end up doing too much too soon. Sholokjack is a confirmed hold up despite leading early four starts ago. That's the only non hold-up run in his 10-race career so far and he fell that day too! he's probably he only real hold-up horse in the contest, yet our Pace Analyser suggests that this wouldn't be a bad tactic, as it's front-runners who have tended to struggle here...

Summary

If I'm honest, I don't expect the field to race to the pace chart above, after all they can't all be classed as prominent runners, unless they run in a pack, so I've gone back to Instant Expert and looked at the place stats to eradicate any runner with any red for going/class/course/distance...

...from which I think Spring Note and Issam are my best chances of finding a winner and Lord of Cheshire / Mullinaree the ones I expect to go off at a decent price and have a chance of making the frame with bookies paying four places.

The truth is that all eight have a decent chance of making the frame, but I can't suggest backing all eight, can I?

Spring Note was very impressive last time out and sauntered home well clear of the pack whilst Issam always seems to be there or thereabouts, rarely running a bad race. Lord of Cheshire has finished 11612 in his last five and should find this a little easier than the slog through heavy ground at Haydock he faced when a good second of eight conceding 17lbs to a horse completing a 37-day hat-trick. As for Mullinaree, he's likely to be a big price, but he relishes this trip and is only 2lbs higher than when completing a five-timer at Hexham last June.

Let's check the market...at 5.30pm Thursday, my quartet were best priced as follows, Spring Note 4/1, Issam 7/1, Lord of Cheshire 8/1 and Mullinaree at 28/1! I expected Spring Note to be around 3/1, so I'm very happy with 4's and with bookies paying four places, I think my other three are all worth considering as E/W options.

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/01/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.35 Southwell
  • 3.10 Huntingdon
  • 3.25 Gowran Park
  • 4.45 Newcastle

...the highest rated of which is the 3.10 Huntingdon, a 9-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ Mares' Listed Chase over a right-handed 2m4f on good ground...

All nine of these have won at least one of their last seven outings with top weight Pink legend winning four times, but she didn't win last time out. Mayhem Mya, Plenty of Time and Sacre Coeur did though, as did Brides Hill who comes here aiming to complete a hat-trick.

Eight of the field are carrying 11st 2lbs here with the 137-rated Lady Adare best off at the weights, but Pink Legend is rated 8lbs higher than Lady Adare, but carries just 4lbs more, whilst Brides Hill is rated a further 8lbs better than Pink Legend and carries 2lbs less, so she's effectively 10lbs to 34lbs well-in with her rivals here.

Sacre Coeur was a Class 2 winner last time out whilst Mayham Mya, Plenty of Time and Midnight Mary all raced at Class 3, so all four are up in class today. The latter is just one of two previous course winners (but only 3 have raced here in total!), having won a Class 5 3m1½f hurdle here back in March 2021, whilst the other, Pink Legend is a course and distance winner by virtue of winning this race in 2022. Carole's Pass and Mayhem Mya are the only ones yet to win over a similar trip to this one...

There's not a great deal of data in Instant Exert above, but Pink Legend is certainly the eyecatcher with her 5 Class 1 chase successes and whilst her rivals haven't quite been as successful, the place stats show that most of them  have acquitted themselves quite well in this grade...

...with La Renommee doing particularly well over this trip. The fields' most recent outings suggest that the likes of Midnight Mary, Pink Legend and Sacre Coeur will be the ones setting the tempo early doors...

...with hat-trick seeking Brides Hill being held-up, but past similar races here at Huntingdon haven't shown any real pace bias...

...as I'd like to see a bigger dataset for mid-division runners before ruling them out. In a race like this where I've no draw or pace bias to work with and Instant Expert hasn't really narrowed things down, I find that the cream generally rises to the top naturally.

Summary

If we're not getting much from Instant Expert from this race by means of whittling the field down, then we refer back to the card and form. And for me, the best two horses in the race are 2022's winner Pink Legend and Brides Hill. The latter comes here on a hat-trick and is a good 10lbs well in at the weights with the former, so I'm going to agree with the 4.40pm market and suggest that the 6/5 Brides Hill beats the 9/2 Pink Legend.

Sadly these bets don't excite me, so I'm looking for double-digit odds runners as possible E/W bets and my gaze falls on the 11/1 Sacre Coeur and the 12/1 La Renommee. The former has progressed nicely over fences, finishing 1131 in her four efforts last year and could well run on for a place, as indeed could the latter who was a Listed class runner-up last time out and has a great record over similar trips with 3 wins and 3 further places from just 7 attempts at 2m4f/2m4½f.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/01/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.35 Fairyhouse
  • 3.50 Fairyhouse
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

None of those UK races above are any better than Class 4, mind you there's only one race tomorrow that is, so we're going to look at it! It's the 3.10 Chepstow, a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on soft ground...

Minella Blueway won last time out after finishing third then second in his other outings under Rules and now makes a handicap debut carrying bottom weight. Lowry's Bar makes a second handicap outing as he attempts to defend his perfect three from three record over hurdles, whilst Wild Max comes here on a hat-trick, having won three of his last four, albeit all over fences. He hasn't raced for 572 days and it's 667 days since he tackled a hurdle, so he might well need the run here. Elsewhere Pentland Hills is two from six and Uncle Bert is two from seven but Espoir de Romay and Ree Okka are winless in nine and seven respectively.

We know Wild Max has been away for a good while, bu the others have all raced at least once in the last four to eight weeks and both Espoir de Romay and Uncle Bert drop down a class today with Minella Blueway going the opposite direction.

Pentland Hills and Wild Max have both yet to win at track and/or trip, but Espoir de Romay and Uncle Beret have both already won over similar distances. Lowry's Bar's second run/win over hurdles was here over 2m½f back in November, whilst the bottom two in the weights, Ree Okka and Minella Blueway are both course and distance winners, the latter doing so last time out four weeks ago, for which he is raised 3lbs as you'll see below on Instant Expert...

...which suggests that most of these will be at home on the soft ground. Pentland Hills is some 11lbs below his last winning mark and ran really well over this trip to defy a 336-day absence to finish second at Doncaster last time out. He was beaten by less than 2 lengths that day and although up 2lbs for that run, the booking of a 10lb claimer makes him really dangerously weighted. He normally races quite prominently (was hampered by a faller at the second two starts ago, though) and looks like being one of the main chasers behind confirmed front-runner Wild Max...

...if 'recent' efforts are anything to go by, that is. There's always the possibility of the field letting Wild Max have an easy lead in the expectation that he'll fold late on after such a long absence and our Pace Analyser does suggest that those racing prominently would fare best from a win perspective...

Summary

Personally I think this will boil down to form and become a contest between Lowry's Bar and Minella Blueway. The former is up 6lbs and up 4f in trip, whilst the latter won here over course and distance. He's also up in weight, but only by 3lbs and is up in class, but did canter home with plenty in hand from 2 out on his way to an 11-length win and although I expect it to be tight, I'll take Minella Blueway to beat Lowry's Bar here.

We're not getting rich taking a 3/1 shot to beat a 2/1 favourite, sadly, but that's how I see it. Of the rest, I agree with the market, as I see the 9/2 3rd fav Pentland Hills as the danger off a low weight and after a good comeback run.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/01/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first two would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 2.55 Down Royal
  • 4.20 Newbury
  • 6.00 Southwell
  • 8.00 Southwell

And I suppose it makes most sense to focus on the last of those four races, where Crimson Angel and The Bell Conductor from The Shortlist will take on six others in the 8.00 Southwell, a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard tapeta...

None of these won last time out, but both Evocative Spark and Reigning Profit finished third. Mondammej and Love Your Work are the only ones without a win in their last seven outings, arriving here on losing runs of 29 & 16 races respectively!

Love Your Work's chances of breaking that cold spell are lessened by a step up in class, just as Reigning Profit does, but The Bell Conductor and Lihou drop a class whilst Revenite drops down two levels, but hasn't raced for seven months so will probably need the run.

That lay-off aside, the field have all been seen in action in the last six weeks with Mondammej's latest defeat coming just a week ago. yet despite his long losing run, he has previously won over this trip, unlike Revenite, Evocative Spark and Love Your Work. The latter has, however, won on this track over both 7f and a mile whilst our other three previous Southwell winners (The Bell Conductor, the fast-finishing Lihou and Crimson Angel) have all scored over course and distance...

As you'd expect, our two runners from The Shortlist, The Bell Conductor and Crimson Angel, feature prominently on Instant Expert...

...where the vulnerable runner looks like being Reigning Profit with a 2 from 14 A/W record at both standard going and 5f. Love Your Work is 0 from 13 at this grade and that's another concern for those hoping he'll break that long losing run. And with just one placed finish from those 13 Class 4 A/W defeats...

...Love Your Work joins Reigning Profit and Revenite in my discard pile, despite his apparent decent record (7 wins, 7 places from 24) here at Southwell. That record, however, is all at 7f and a mile and with him being a career 2 from 24 shorter than a mile, it's a no from me.

There's no real advantage to be gained from the draw here, not that you'd expect there to be over a straight 5f sprint, although the draw thirds suggest low-drawn runners haven't fared as well as par score...

Yet, if we consider actual stall-by-stall data...

...there really is very little in it and I'd be very surprised if the draw cost any runner this or any other Southwell 5f contest. Pace/tactics , however, are a totally different kettle of fish with a distinct advantage offered to those quickest away...

...which means that the following graphic should contain few shocks...

Yet strangely, there's a distinct lack of early pace shown by this field in their last few outings...

...with only The Bell Conductor and Reigning Profit likely to burst out.

Summary

Pace supposedly wins the race here at Southwell over 5f, but neither The Bell Conductor nor Reigning Profit scream "back me!" The former has struggled for form of late, whilst the latter made little appeal from Instant Expert. The Bell Conductor is 3 from 5 over course and distance but was well beaten here last time out and even at 14/1 E/W, I'm struggling to convince myself to 'stick a couple of quid on' and I don't fancy Reigning Profit, especially as a 3/1 fav!

Mondammej is next in the market at 7/2, but he's unreliable from a win perspective having lost 29 on the bounce since November 2021. The rst of the field have a very similar pace profile to each other and if I was to pick one from those likely to be slower away, it would be Crimson Angel from The Shortlist. She's still relatively unexposed, she's 1 from 1 here, 2 from 5 over the trip and 2 from 3 under today's jockey. She's not a shoo-in by any means, but at Hills' 15/2 offered at 4pm, Crimson Angel is my idea of an E/W bet.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 22/01/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 1.35 Warwick
  • 3.00 Kempton
  • 3.55 Plumpton

If I'm honest, none of those four races (a 4-runner race, a mares novice hurdle, a Class 5 maiden and a Class 5 hurdle) really grab my attention. Monday racing is generally quite poor, so I'm usually quite selective about what kind of races I get involved with and wouldn't really touch those above.

So, it  should goodbye until tomorrow from me, but the show must and does go on. Therefore, I'm going to look elsewhere and tackle the day's richest and joint highest-rated race, the 2.45 Plumpton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively a left-handed 3m 2.63f (3m 1f 152yds, plus 207yds rail movement) on good ground that is currently softer in places and with showers expected, it will probably stay that way. Here's the card...

None of these won last time out and only Fidux (a 2.25 length runner-up) made the frame, whilst Only The Bold, Cyclop, Blade Runner and Northern Poet were all pulled up. In fact the first three named of those four pulled up, were also pulled up in their penultimate runs too. That said Blade Runner is 2 from 4, 3 from 7 and 5 from 10 and Northern Poet is 3 from 4 and Blade Runner is down two classes here, as are the joint top-weights Larry and Only the Bold.

Cyclop drops down a class here too, but Fidux now steps up from Class 4, although his 10lb claim jockey retains the ride. Tip Top Mountain and Northern Poet return from breaks of 11 weeks and 3 months respectively, as their rivals have all been out in the last five weeks or so.

Only The Bold, Lord Accord, Fidux and Jacamar are all yet to win here at Plumpton, mind you Jacamar's run here in April is the only time any of the four have been here. As for the trip, Larry, Fidux and Jacamar await their first wins over similar distances, but four of the field (Cyclop, Blade Runner, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain) have all won over course and distance...

Some respectable efforts on good/good to soft ground aside from Larry's 2 from 14 and all of those with three or more Class 3 runs have done well enough. Jacamar is the only one to have failed to win here of those who have raced on this track, whilst the trip looks too much for Fidux. He might only be 0 from 4 at similar distances, but the bigger picture is that he has 0 wins from 16 beyond 2m7f! Blade Runner

Pace is today's free feature and our pace analyser shows us this...

...suggesting that we'd be better off backing a horse who races prominently or leads, especially from a place perspective, but how will we know how they'll run until the race is actually underway? Well, we track how every horse runs in every race and the pace tab shows us their last four running styles, enabling us to make an informed decision (or educated guess!) as to what tactics they might employ and that data looks like this...

...where 4 =-led, 3 = raced prominently, 2 = ran in mid-field and 1 = was held-up. So we can quickly see that Tip Top Mountain likes to lead. Lord Accord, Fidux & Northern Poet look like prominent runners with Only The Bold and Blade Runner running in mid-division with Jacamar, Cyclop and Larry racing further back, somewhat like this...

Summary

Despite being pulled up last time out Blade Runner and Northern Poet have been in great form, as has bottom weight Tip Top Mountain, whilst the horses catching my eye on Instant Expert were Blade Runner, Northern Poet, Tip Top Mountain and Cyclop with Tip Top Mountain, Lord Accord, Fidux & Northern Poet the takeaways from the pace analysis.

Which from the data above points to Blade Runner, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain being the ones of most interest to me. Blade Runner has failed to complete his last two races but has plenty of recent wins in his form line, he loves it here at Plumpton and if he does run here (also declared at Lingfield on Sunday in a much tougher race), he's be my one to beat here at 11/2 with Hills.

I do think the other pair, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain will go well, but at 13/2 the former is just a bit short for an E/W bet for me, but I'm quite happy to have a small punt at 14's on Tip Top Mountain from an E/W perspective.

Racing Insights, Saturday 20/01/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...30-day form...

...1-year form...

...course 1-year form...

...course 5-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

  • 12.15 Lingfield
  • 12.55 Haydock
  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 3.15 Haydock
  • 4.28 Taunton
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

But, as you can see, the recent cold snap has played havoc with the day's racing. That said, between the 'free' list and daily report, we do have eight races to aim at, including the richest race of the day, the Winter Oaks featuring two runners from the TJC report as Queen Regent and Eleanor Cross do battle with 6 other fillies in the 3.10 Lingfield, a Class 2, 4yo+ A/W handicap for fillies/mares over a left handed 1m2f on standard polytrack...

Miss Bluebell won last time out and is two from her last five, Oh So Grand arrives here on a hat-tirck and has won four of her last six (with 2 placed finishes), whilst Storymaker has won her last four after a trio of third place finishes. Elsewhere only Eleanor Cross is winless in six, but to be fair she's only had three races to date, finishing in the frame twice.

Only hat-trick seeking Oh So Grand, Queen Regent (who wears cheekpieces for the first time today) and Behind The Scenes raced at this Class 2 level last time out, as Twirling (second handicap effort today) and Dayzee are up one class, LTO winners Miss Bluebell and Storymaker will find life tougher up two classes, whilst bottom weight Eleanor Cross is up three for her handicap debut, having failed to win at either Class 4 or 5 over this trip.

Miss Bluebell raced as recently as last Saturday, when scoring at Wolverhampton, whilst the longest break has been had by Oh So Grand and Queen Regent, who finished first and second here over course and distance 45 days ago. They were separated by a length and a quarter that day, but the runner-up is 4lbs better off here.

That win by Oh So Grand makes her the only course and distance winner, but Storymaker has won here over 7f and Miss Bluebelle has scored over this trip at Bath and Chelmsford as well as winning twice over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton, but it's Oh So Grand who steals the show on Instant Expert...

We've admittedly not got a great deal of data from a field with a combined 64 races in total and even those with red boxes have still run well in those small number of outings, making the frame regularly...

...where the more experienced Miss Bluebelle and Storymaker have proven to be A/W standard going experts. The concern with the former is the 7lb hike from her last win and the fact that is her track debut with her best form coming on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. She's drawn in stall 2 today, which has been the most successful stall in 8-runner contests over this course and distance...

...which is a positive after the 7lb rise in weights. and if she can race prominently or even set the tempo of the race, then she might have a really good chance based on this evidence below...

And fortunately for her, that's exactly what she tends to do...

Summary

Whilst Oh So Grand isn't ideally suited pace-wise based on her last two runs, the previous two were tactically ideal for this contest. If she runs that way here then, as the only Class 2 winner in the field and in great form (113211), she looks the one to beat from a low draw. She beat Queen Regent last time and although the latter is better off at the weights, her wide draw might stop her reversing the placings, but I fancy both to make the frame along with Miss Bluebell and/or Storymaker.

We've discussed Miss Bluebell already and she looks to have a decent chance of getting placed, whilst Storymaker has more experience and loves it here at Lingfield. I'll consult the market before making any selections, though.

As of 6.40pm on Friday evening, the market looked like this...

...and 9/4 probably seems about right for Oh So Grand, so I won't try to deter anyone from backing her, but I think my play here is to take the 9/1 E/W (Sky offer 4 places!) about Queen Regent who should run the fav close again, as she did in the trial for this race seven weeks ago.

Racing Insights, Friday 19/01/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded a pair of qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 12.40 Market Rasen
  • 1.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.10 Lingfield
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...but sadly like racing in general, the free list has been decimated by the weather. That said, the H4C report race is the most valuable UK race to have survived the weather and it's the joint highest rated, so let's a look at the 2.15 Wolverhampton featuring Follow Your Heart, Beauty Choice and eight other runners in a Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that the three heading the market at 2.45pm (Al Farabi, Johnny James & Follow Your Heart) would be the ones to best here, but the market isn't always right, nor are my initial thoughts, so let's dive into the card.

Our two featured runners are top and bottom weights here, rated some 17lbs apart, but it's two runners from the middle of the weights, Eden Storm and Wiseacre, who are our LTO winners today. Johnny James and Al Farabi were both runners-up, though, whilst Sir Maxi was third home. All ten runners have won at least one of their last six outings and only Wiseacre has been off the track for six weeks or longer and may well need the run after a 221 day absence.

The card has denoted the bottom three in the weights, Sir Maxi, How Impressive and Beauty Choice as fast finishers, but the latter of that trio steps up a class here. Wiseacre return from a long break to make a yard debut for Des Donovan and also has to contend with stepping up two classes, but both Follow Your Heart and The Turpinator drop two classes.

The well fancied Al Farabi makes a second handicap appearance here following a 1-length defeat on debut three weeks ago, but like all bar Johnny James and the returning Wiseacre, he has already won over today's trip, whilst our four previous Wolverhampton victors, Follow Your Heart, Visibility, Eden Storm and Beauty Choice, have all won over course and distance, giving us a good smattering of green on Instant Expert...

...where How Impressive looks less than impressive (sorry!). There are doubts about Visibility at this level (1 from 11), but despite a fair amount of red, no other real causes for concern. In fact, only Visibilty, Wiseacre and How Impressive fail to have any green from the going/class/course/distance stats and I'd probably rule them out now.

Over the last five years in similar races, those drawn low to middle (especially those in stalls 2 to 6) have fared best...

...whilst those races have rally suited those keen to 'get on with things' early...

...with low to mid-drawn prominent runners faring best...

If we then look at how these runners have tackled their last few races...

Summary

It looks like Johnny James and Al Farabi fit the pace/draw requirements best here. They're both drawn low and both will be keen to hit the front end early. Wiseacre may well attempt to challenge for the lead, but he'll have to come from stall 10 and probably won't be fit enough to maintain his effort.

Both Johnny James and Al Farabi are in great form and I'd expect them to be the first two home. I have them very evenly matched, so it could go either way. That said Johnny james would offer better value at 5/1 than Al Farabi's 5/2, so make of that what you will.

You can then make a case for several of these to make the frame, but as I prefer to take 8/1 or better for an E/W bet, it does rule a few out, but one of our featured horses, Beauty Choice, might be the one, as I think he's better than 10/1 might suggest.

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