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Racing Insights, Thursday 18/05/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 1.30 Salisbury
  • 2.25 York
  • 4.35 Perth
  • 6.20 Newmarket
  • 6.55 Newmarket

And clearly the best of those is on the Knavesmire, so let's focus upon the 2.25 York, an 8-runner, Fillies And Mares Group 2 flat contest over a left-handed 1m2.3f on good ground...

As you'd expect from a race of this magnitude, the field have won plenty of races between them and both Aristia and Free Wind won last time out, the latter coming here looking for a fourth win on the bounce with only Rogue Millennium winless in five.

Sea Silk Road has been flagged as a fast finisher and there's no new headgear or equipment on show. Rogue Millennium last raced just 18 days ago, but all of her rivals are running for the first time in at least 215 days with Free Wind not having been seen for almost 11 months since winning the Lancashire Oaks. That was also off a lengthy break, meaning that this will be only her second run in over 600 days!

Toskana Belle has won three of her six starts in Europe prior to this UK debut, but her wins were over 8f, 9f and 11f, making her the only one without a win at 1m2f, whilst the two course winners, Aristia and State Occasion have both triumphed over course and distance in July 2021 and August 2022 respectively, the former in a Listed race.

All bar Aristia & Toskana Belle will carry 9st 2lbs here, making Free Wind some 6lbs to 12lbs 'well-in' on her rivals based on OR/handicap marks and with the Gosden/Dettori partnership behind her, she couldn't be in better hands as she seeks a hat-trick of Group 2 wins.

Instant Expert doesn't carry overseas form, so it doesn't show that Toskana Belle is 3 from 3 on good ground and has 2 wins & 2 further places at Class 1. She hasn't tackled this track or trip yet, but here's how her rivals stack up...

The huge swathes of green were to be expected, but let's have a quick look at those with less than ideal scores by bringing up the place stats...

Poptronic's best form has been on the Tapeta tracks at Newcastle & Wolverhampton, whilst Rogue MIllennium's two career wins (from seven starts) have been on quicker ground than this and as for State Occasion's record at Class 1, she was 4th of 10 in as Listed race at Dundalk last September and 8th of 13 in a Newmarket Group 3 a fortnight later and hasn't been seen since. She finished 211 in a trio of Class 2 races prior to those defeats and that's probably her level.

Our 100% placers Free Wind and Sea Silk Road are drawn in stalls 6 and 3 respectively here and the last five renewals of this race have been won by horses coming out of the first two stalls, but more generally here at York over this going/trip, there's not a huge draw bias...

...although there is a suggestion that stalls 7 & 8 might be the place to be, which would be good for the likes of Toskana Belle and Rogue Millennium if the race was run to suit them, of course. Those races aboive also don't have a huge pace bias either, but leaders have come out worse than any other running style...

...which might not be the best news for the likes of Aristia and Free Wind, as this group's last four outings suggest that this pair might be the ones having to set the tempo in what might be a falsely run race...

That said, the pace/draw heat map gives pretty much most running style/draw combos a chance of success, so it might just boil down to a class of the cream rising to the top.

Summary

Sometimes we have little pace, draw or heat map bias to work with and in those cases, I tend to revert to recent form via the formline on the card and also historical data via Instant Expert and having done so, I'm not surprised that Free Wind is the early 11/8 favourite. She's clearly the one to beat here and the question really is whether you think 11/8 offers any value at all. Personally, I thought she might have been 6/4 or 7/4 early doors, but I wouldn't be surprised to her price shorten. Make of that what you will.

LTO winner Aristia has won over track and trip before and I'd expect her and possibly Sea Silk Road to be the ones chasing the fav home, but you'd probably guess that from the fact they're next best in the market at 5/1 and 11/2. In fairness, the top 3 in the market do sometimes finish 1-2-3 and I'd not be hugely surprised if that happened here, but if you were looking for something a bit longer at an E/W price, you can get 8's about the French filly, Toskana Belle.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.35 York
  • 4.20 Newton Abbot
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 6.20 Cork
  • 8.10 Bath
  • 8.30 Perth

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

Depending on your viewpoint, it's unfortunate that I can't tie the 'free' races up with the daily feature or it's good news that the two have thrown up lots of races for me to look at. And being a glass half-full kind of bloke, like I'm sure you are, I'm taking it that I've got thirteen UK races listed above, from which the 3.40 York is clearly the best on paper, but has very little data for me to share with you.

So, aside from that Group 3 race I've swerved, I'm left with a host of Class 4 or worse races, but they'll all have a winner, so let's see if we can crack the most valuable of them, the 2.05 Newton Abbot, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m2½f on good to soft ground...

The two form horses here are Monjules and Inferno Sacree who are 3 from 5 and 4 from 5 respectively, whilst featured horse Polyphonic and Swinging London have both been runners-up in each of their last two starts, but the former is winless in seven now and others on losing runs are Atholl Street at eight defeats and the 12-race maiden Fongs Way, who now makes a yard debut and UK debut since a move to Jimmy Frost (who doesn't have a great record here!).

Elsewhere Polyphonic makes just a second handicap appearance and Swinging London is in first-time cheekpieces. Top weight The Pink'n is down a class here, as are the in-form Inferno Sacree and the cold Atholl Street, but our other form horse, Monjules is up two grades here from a Flat outing but his last effort over hurdles was in this grade. He's one of just four to have won at a similar trip to this one, along with Polyphonic, Inferno Sacree (almost inevitably) and The Pink'n, who is also our only previous course winner, courtesy of a Class 3, 2m1f hurdle success almost 4 yrs ago.

Swinging London returns from a short eight-week break, but all of his rivals have raced in the last month, except Fongs Way, who hasn't been seen since he was pulled up at Cork five months ago. Other stats, taken from Instant Expert, show that just four of this field have won a NH race on good to soft ground and that five of them are previous Class 4 winners...

Not a great deal to shout about here, but Monjules, Inferno Sacree & Polyphonic do spark a little interest but Swinging London looks like he might struggle and The Plimsoll Line has toiled at this level. Place stats...

...are more encouraging for a decent Class 4 battle with so many of this field having good place numbers, but Inferno Sacree is a glaring exception, although he did win at Class 3 last time out. Winless in six efforts at this level, Swinging London has consistently made the frame, only missing out once, so he might well be a place option again here.

Pace data from past races here at Newton Abbot suggest that the further forward a horse races, the better its chances of winning...

...and this is sure to suit the front-running Inferno Sacree, based on his recent efforts...

Summary

Aside from having failed to make the frame in five previous runs at this level, Inferno Sacree ticks all the boxes for me here today. He's in great form, he won at a higher class last time out and now drops down again. Yes, he's up in the weights again, but he's won four of his last five with winning margins of 20, 5.5, 9.5 and 8.5 lengths, so will take some stopping. He has won at this trip, he has won on good to soft and is likely to lead on a front-runners' track. He's generally available at 9/2, which is more than fair.

Elsewhere, the other market principals, Monjules (3/1), Swinging London (4/1) and Polyphonic (4/1) should all run their races and end up there or thereabouts, but pace/form suggests Monjules should win that particular battle. I don't really have an E/W play here, as I thought The Pink'n was the best of those priced at 8's or bigger, but I'd want more than 8/1 for him from a hold-up position. The Plimsoll Line has an outside chance of hanging on to a place in the capable hands of Rex Dingle, but again I'd want more than 8's about him.

So for me, it's Inferno Sacree to make all and beat the chasing Monjules with Swinging London and Polyphonic battling to rein The Plimsoll Line in.

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 16/05/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 4.25 Chepstow
  • 4.35 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.15 Sandown
  • 7.35 Killarney
  • 7.55 Sligo

...and although it's not the best race of the day or even the best of the 'free' list, we really should marry the free feature with the free cards and take a quick look at Killane in the 4.35 Newcastle, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m1f on good ground...

Magic Mike and featured horse Killane both won last time out and aside from Artic Row's success four races ago, none of the others have won any of five starts with both Ebendi and Bebside Banter failing to complete twice in their last four outings.

The afore mentioned Ebendi makes just a second handicap appearance (fell at 2nd hurdle on hcp debut) and the recently out of sorts (pulled up in two of his last three) Bebside Banter is now fitted with first-time cheeekpieces, meaning that only Minella Youngy, Ebendi and Mactavish run without any headgear/apparatus.

Bebside Banter also drops down from Class 4 here, as do Irish Sovereign and Mactavish, but bottom weight Burnage Boy is up from Class 6 some three months after his last run.

Only Mactavish, who returns from six months off, has been away from the track longer than Burnage Boy, with the rest of the field having raced in April (plus a May outing for Bebside Banter).

As you'd expect from The Shortlist, Killane is a former course and distance winner and none of his rivals have won here before, but Artic Row, Ingleby Mackenzie and Magic Mike have all at least won over a similar trip.

Further conditions-related info courtesy of Instant Expert shows that just five of the field have a good ground NH win, but that half a dozen have won at Class 5. You can adjust the parameters yourself, of course to find the sole Class 4 win, but here are today's relevant win stats...

...where Killane aside, it's a pretty bleak picture. The areas I've most concerns about are Minella Youngy (class/distance), Artic Row (distance), Mactavish (time off/going/distance), Edmond Dantes (distance), Ingleby Mackenzie (class/distance), Magic Mike (going), Burnage Boy (class/distance), phew! Hopefully some of these will have better place records...

Hmmm, not much better to be honest. My next port of call is pace and if the field run like they have been running of late...

...then I'd expect Bebside Banter to be the one setting the tempo of the contest early doors with Mactavish and Minella Youngy the back markers. Featured runner Killane has raced prominently in two if his last four and does tend to run in an advanced position generally, which would seem to suit this race, based on past similar contests...

Summary

I wanted to marry up the free feature with the races of the day and that meant looking at Killane's chances here and the only possible negatives I have about him are that he's up 3lbs from his win a month ago and that we might not get a decent price when the book opens.

That said, he's only one pound higher than a win at Carlisle last year and he's back on good ground after winning on heavy last time out. Price-wise, 5/2 would be tolerable, but if I could get 3/1, I'd be much happier!

Others to note would be Magic Mike and Irish Sovereign with the latter hopefully a double digit-odds E/W option.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.15 Wolverhampton
  • 5.25 Killarney
  • 5.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.55 Killarney
  • 8.35 Windsor
  • 8.45 Southwell

The last of these looks like the being the best on paper, at least, so let's take a look at the 8.45 Southwell, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles (2m½f after rail movements) on good to soft ground that will be softer in places with more showers expected...

Of the nine runners, only handicap debutant Toronet was a winner last time out, but that was in a poor climing race in France back in February and he now also makes a UK debut here. Of his rivals, only Tarahumara, Restandbethankful and With A Start failed to make the frame on their last run and the best looking formline belongs to Sea The Clouds (1122).

He now runs in a handicap for just the second time, as does Tarahumara, who has also had wind surgery since his last run. The bottom two on the card are the only class movers today, as the 12 yr old veteran McGowans Pass drops down a level and the sole mare, bottom weight Karannelle steps up a grade after back to back narrow defeats as a runner-up last year at Newton Abbot.

The last of those Newton Abbot runs was some 258 days ago and none of her rivals have been away from the track longer. Most of the field have raced in the last month, aside from Toronet (76d), Tarahumara (93d) and Sea The Clouds (175d).

None of this group have won here at Southwell before, mind you just three of them have raced here before (once each), but all bar French import Toronet have won at a similar trip.

Toronet hasn't raced in the UK before, so he obviously has no previous Class 4 win, but all of his rivals bar McGowans Pass have won at this grade, whilst just three of the field have won on good to soft or soft ground, according to Instant Expert...

You'd have to think that the Ground conditions would be against Elham Valley, Restandbethankful and McGowans Pass with a combined 1 win from 24 and both Elham Valley and McGowans Pass have toiled at Class 4. In fact, the latter just doesn't seem well suited to the task in hand at all and age isn't on his side. We do have a fair smattering of green above, but not enough to hang a bet from. I'm hoping the place stats can guide me a little closer...

Well, there's certainly more green, isn't there? And if we eliminate all the red blocks...

...it would seem that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly should be the ones, who'd relish conditions the most.

Today's feature is, of course, the PACE tab but before we look at how this field normally approach their races, let's have a quick look at how this kind of race has panned out historically here at Southwell...

...which says that leader win far more than their fair share of races and even to just make the frame, you don't want to be too lose to the back of the field, which doesn't look like good news for Too Friendly or Karannell based on this from their last four outings...

Expect McGowans Pass to set the pace, as he virtually always does and whilst he's a regular top 3 finisher, having done so in 10 of his last 14, he hasn't actually managed to hang on for a win in any of those races! What's likely here is that he gives Sea The Clouds a tow into the race and makes a target of himself in the closing stages.

Summary

Alphabetically, I think Elham Valley, Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly are the best horses in the race and that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly seem the best suited by conditions. Sea The Clouds also has the best pace profile of this shortlisted group and Too friendly looks like having too much to do from the back and if we look at the field's last few results, Sea The Clouds is the 'form' horse.

With that in mind, it would have to be Sea The Clouds for me here and 5/1 is decent enough. I'd expect the others named above to be there or thereabouts, whilst McGowans Pass might run well enough to hold on for a place, depending on what happens behind him.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 13/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just two runners under each of the 1-year overall and 1-year course form filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Ascot
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 3.05 Nottingham
  • 3.30 Navan
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 5.55 Warwick

...and of those ten (free list plus report qualifiers), there's a Class 2 race at Ascot in both sectors. The 23-runner Victoria Cup (2.40 Ascot) is too far out of my comfort zone, so I'm going to assess the chances of Belhaven in the 2.05 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Featured horse Belhaven was a winner last time out, as were Timeless Melody and Mountain Song, who finally got off the mark after three runner-up finishes. Only Perfect Thunder, Farhh To Shy and Beccara Rose are without a win in their recent form line.

Belhaven does however step up a class after her recent win, as do Sly Madam and Farhh To Shy. One Morning is up two classes, along with Mountain Song and Beccara Rose, whilst Timeless Melody's recent win was at Class 5! On the other hand, both Don't Tell Claire and Mottisfont are both down from recent Class 1 runs after racing in Listed / Group 3 company respectively.

Don't Tell Claire now wears cheekpieces for just the second time, Perfect Thunder makes a yard debut for Patrick Owens, whilst it's handicap debut day for One Morning, Timeless Melody, Mottisfont and Beccara Rose (who runs from 2lbs out of the handicap). It's also only the second handicap outing for top weight Julia Augusta as well as Mountain Song.

We have two 3 yr olds in the field, Mountain Song and Beccara Rose and they'll benefit from a very healthy 13lb weight (for age) allowance in this open handicap and the former has already scored over today's trip, as have Julia Augusta, Don't Tell Claire, featured runner Belhaven and Sly Madam. Don't Tell Claire is our only previous Ascot winner, courtesy of a class, course and distance victory twenty months ago.

Most of the field have an outing this season already, but Perfect Thunder, One Morning and Julia Augusta might well need this run, as they come off breaks of 202, 234 and 302 days respectively.

A look at Instant Expert then adds to the stats above by highlighting that feature horse Belhaven is one of just three to have won on soft or heavy ground and that she and the afore-mentioned Don't Tell Claire are our only Class 2 winners on display...

...whilst many of their rivals lack previous experience under these prevailing conditions, but a quick look at the place stats does at least add a bit more colour...

...with Don't Tell Claire Belhaven and Perfect Thunder probably of most interest.

Over a straight mile, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the draw wouldn't have much effect and although the following is based on a fairly small sample size...

...the lower half of the draw has really struggled in similar past contests, as shown here in the stall-by-stall data...

...and this gives some advantage to those drawn 7 or higher here. This draw bias is probably stronger than any perceived pace bias, but the small number of leaders have won more than their fair share of races...

The effect of the draw is probably better highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...so as long as One Morning, Perfect Thunder, Mottisfont, Belhaven and Sly Madam aren't hold-up horses, their chances of success should be enhanced by the draw. So, let's look at how they've approached their most recent races...

Belhaven may have a average pace score of 2.25, but she did lead last time out and a similar approach puts her right in the mix here. Don't tell Claire is hampered by both draw and running style and the pace here is likely to be down the centre wit the in-form Mountain Song.

Summary

We started with Belhaven and we're going to finish with her. I think she's good enough to win this race, but probably won't. She's 2 from 3 and 4 from 7, but a 7lb rise for her LTO win takes her mark to a career high 87, some 20lbs higher than her win seven races ago last May. She's also up in class here, so I think this might be just too much for her.

That said, most firms are paying four places and I think that she's good for a place. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it might work for you. As for the winner, I think I fancy Mountain Song to defy class and weight rises because she might well be afforded a soft lead and 4/1 seems a fair price.

Racing Insights, Friday 12/05/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Chester
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton
  • 5.45 Nottingham
  • 6.10 Kilbeggan
  • 7.55 Kilbeggan

...the best of which is arguably the 2.40 Chester. The Huxley Stakes might only have six runners, but it's a Group 2 contest for 4yo+ runners over a left-handed 1m2½f on soft ground...

No surprise to see a small field for this one, the last eleven renewals have only had a combined 62 runners and the market is likely to be headed by Point Lonsdale, the mount of course specialist Ryan Moore. Ryan absolutely loves this race and he has ridden the winner in each of the last two years and going further back, he is 4 from 6, 6 from 11 and 7 from 13 in this contest!

It's not a handicap contest, so they all carry 9st 3lbs, which means that Mujtaba is technically a pound better off than Point Lonsdale, but he is up in class today and returns from a break of 202 days. He is, however, the only one of the six to have won here on the Roodee, having scored over 7½f in just his second outing, way back in September 2021. Royal Champion also returns from a break and he has been away a week longer than Mujtaba.

Both Foxes Tales and Point Lonsdale won last time out and Layfayette is the only one without a win in their last six starts, although he does have a Group 3 third and a Group 2 runner-up finish to his name from two runs at The Curragh already this season. He is, however, the lowest rated of the sextet, assessed as 8lbs inferior to Mujtaba.

FOXES TALES snapped a cold spell of eight defeats by landing a Listed race at Kempton last time out over 1m2f and should relish the return to grass and soft ground, where he is two from two.

LAYFAYETTE has been around the block a few times with 26 races under his belt, but he in winless in six since a five-week hat-trick at the start of last season. Has gone well in his first two starts of this campaign, but you'd have to expect others to be stronger.

MUJTABA won his first three races (Autumn 2021) and is five from eight so far, but all his recent form is at Class 2 and this is a big step up for him. He won on heavy ground last time out and has won on good, good to soft and soft, so going doesn't seem to faze him, but the added quality here and the effects of a layoff might undo him.

POINT LONSDALE has five wins and a runner-up finish from just seven starts, landing three Class 1 races as a 2yo in 2021 as well as a Group 1 runner-up spot. His only race last season was the 2000 Guineas when finishing out of the money, seven lengths behind Coroebus on his return from a 230-day absence. That said, he did win next/last time out at The Curragh in a Group 3 contest some 351 days later, so he's clearly ready to run.

POKER FACE is a lightly raced (4 starts) 4yr old who was 3 from 3 in the autumn of 2022 with a pair of Class 5 wins followed by a Class 4 success. He then took six months off before finishing second in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket on soft ground last month. Should go well, but I'd fancy others more.

ROYAL CHAMPION has won three of nine, but lacks consistency as typified by his last two runs. He landed a 1m2f Listed race by 5.5 lengths at Ayr in mid-September, but four weeks later was last home of nine tailed right off (120 lengths) in the Champion Stakes at Ascot and hasn't been seen since. Now coming back from 30 weeks off track, he's probably best left alone here until we see what kind of shape he's in, especially on his soft ground debut.

As well as having the talents of Ryan Moore in the saddle, Point Lonsdale can take comfort from knowing that Instant Expert also points him out as a leading player here...

...but both Foxes Tales and Royal Champion have poor records at Class 1, although the latter will certainly relish the soft ground where one of his two Class 1 wins came from. At this point, I'd be leaning towards those with some soft ground form.

At first glance, you'd be forgiven for thinking that those drawn centrally would have the best of it here...

...but I'm not convinced the bias is that pronounced although the lower half a of six-runner field would appear to have more chances of making the frame. In a small field here at Chester there's no real need to be out wide and the key to winning this may well revolve around who starts best and gets away quickest according tot he pace stats from those races above...

...facts backed up by the heat map, showing that you can win from anywhere in the draw, but that pace is key...

All of this is another tick in the box for Point Lonsdale...

Summary

It's very hard to get away from Point Lonsdale here, isn't it? And you can see why he's only priced at 5/4 or 11/8, but if you're happy playing at such odds, I'd expect you to be making profit. As or who chases him home, I think it's Foxes Tales v Mujtaba and although the bookies have them at best prices of 5/1 and 4/1, it's Foxes Tales for me.

They both won last time out, but Mujtaba is up in class and hasn't been seen for a while, whilst Foxes Tales has the 'better' draw, should race further forward and just happens to sit in a nice green spot on the pace/draw heatmap.

So, it's Point Lonsdale to beat Foxes Tales for me.

Racing Insights, Thursday 11/05/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.40 Chester
  • 5.05 Huntingdon
  • 5.48 Clonmel
  • 6.00 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford
  • 7.18 Clonmel

I want to tie the feature of the day into the free races here, so I'm going to look at the 6.00 Chelmsford. On the face of it, it's a poor looking 13-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap for Amateur jockeys over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack...

So, we've no LTO winners and only Billian is any kind of form with a win and four places from his last five starts. Hannah's Return did win two starts ago and Forever Dreaming, Millicent and Master Sully do have a win in their recent form line.

Top weight Red Alert drops down from Class 5, as does Forever Dreaming. San Juan runs for Damien Wingrove for the first time leaving Mark Loughnane's yard, Miss Connaisuer makes a second run post-wind surgery and both Fristel and Billian are noted as fast finishers.

Red Alert and Monsieur Fantaisie are both former course and distance winners, whilst Forever Dreaming, Billian and Hannah's Return have also scored over today's trip elsewhere.

At 114 days off, Monsieur Fantaisie might be a bit rusty, but his yard have a good record with horses coming back from a break. Aside from San Juan's 97 day lay-off, the rest of the field have all raced in the past eight weeks.

The bottom three on the card all run from 1lb outside the handicap.

Instant Expert usually helps us pick winners from such mediocre cards, but even feature of the day is struggling with this bunch...

...although some of them have clearly done better than others, but wait! Watch what happens if we look at A/W place form...

...now we suddenly have something to work with. Firstly I need to de-clutter, so let's get rid of Fristel, Millicent, Master Sully, Shining Crystal and Miss Connaisseur, because they're all holding a full line of red and if you can't make the frame, you can't win! Now this looks a bit better...

There are obvious concerns over Red Alert & San Juan on standard going with the latter also faring poorly at this trip, so I think we'll remove them at this point too before I start to fragment the Instant Expert graphic as follows...

In fairness, I probably didn't need to do that for you, but it means that I'm now only going to consider Hannah's Return, Forever Dreaming, Billian and Monsieur Fantaisie, who'll be spread across the track at the start from stalls 1, 4, 8 & 13 (non-runner came from #13). I put them in draw order, as the draw is the next thing to consider to see if those drawn at either end have a greater or worse chance of winning...

The initial thought here is that low draws do considerably better than high draws, based on the angle of that line, but the reality is that low draws only have 5 more winners from 415 runs, so I'm not too concerned about the horse out in stall 13 just yet, but he'll certainly have to make up ground if there's a level break. That said, Monsieur Fantaisie has been sharlply away on his last two outings...

...which, as most people know, is the correct way to approach 6f here at Chelmsford...

This isn't great news for either Billian or Forever Dreaming, because a look at the bigger picture says they could well have 10 runners to try and pass late on...

Summary

So, from the above I'm taking Monsieur Fantaisie, top scorer on Instant Expert to beat Hannah's Return, who also scored well on IE. They're the pace in this race too and I'm hoping they're the first two home.

The early market would seem to agree, sadly, as Monsieur Fantaisie is the 7/2 favourite with Hannah's Return at 6/1 alongside Billian with Forever Dreaming fourth in the odds at 8/1. The latter makes most sense as an E/W bet, but Billian is in the better form and should make the frame.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Kelso
  • 2.40 Chester
  • 4.55 Chester
  • 6.15 Fontwell Park
  • 8.15 Fontwell Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

...giving me five 'free' races and four TS report races to choose from. Of these nine, the 2.40 Chester Listed contest is clearly the best on paper, but there's not a great deal of data for me to work with there. After that I'm left with a bunch of Class 4 and Class 5 races, so I'll remain at Chester for the most valuable of the eight, the 4.55 Chester, a 14-runner (a few more than I prefer!), Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to soft ground...

Just one of the fourteen, Roundhay Park, won last time out and he's two from five. Maysong and Melly's Flyer both won two races ago, whilst Hodler, Roman Dragon, Gorak and He's A Gentleman have all won at least once in their last five.

The top three in the weights are ll drawn in the car park (more on that shortly) and all are down in class; Another Batt and Roman Dragon are down one class, as is Devasboy whilst Hodler drops down from Class 2, just like Maysong & Roudemental. LTO winner Roundhay Park is up 7lbs and one grade.

Ten of the field have raced in the last three weeks and both Roudemental (39 days) and San Isidro (62d) shouldn't have got too rusty, but Paws For Thought and Roman Dragon might well need a run after breaks of 197 and 221 days respectively.

We have six previous course winners in the shape of Another Batt, Roman Dragon and Devasboy over 7½f, 6f and 7½f whilst Roundhay Park, Paws For Thought & Broken Spear are all former course and distance winners. Only Roman Dragon, Roudemental, San Isidro and He's A Gentleman have yet to score over this trip.

Aside from these stats, our trusted Instant Expert feature points out just four previous good to soft winners, but also that only four have failed to win a Class 4 race...

As with many Class 4 contests, Instant Expert doesn't necessarily point you directly towards a horse to back with there being far more red than green, but it can steer you away from some possibly unlikely winners. Roundhay Park loves good to soft ground, but Paws For Thought and Maysong are a combined 1 from 14 on this going and Oso Rapido's 0 from 5 isn't great either. Paws has won 2 of 6 at Class 4, though and Roman Dragon has gone well at this level too. Strugglers in this grade are Maysong, Broken Spear, Melly's Flyer, Devasboy and He's A Gentleman, whilst none of the field have acquitted themselves particularly well over the trip.

The above is all form, so what I like to do next with these big field is look at Flat Handicap place form, which looks like this...

...and at this point, I'm only really interested in green and amber scores ie...

...and then I'm happy to discard any runner not featuring above, leaving me with (in draw order)...

...as the half of the field I want to be with. Obvious concerns here about Devasboy at this grade and Roundhay Park at the trip, whilst Broken Spear looks to have scored best ahead of Paws For Thought. I've arranged them in draw order, because it's Chester and "you can't win from out wide over 7f at Chester" or can you?

Well, you can, but it doesn't happen often...

...and those drawn higher than than stall 10 in those races are 0 from 38, which doesn't bode well for Hodler or Maysong...

As for pace, the 'bias' isn't as huge as that with the draw, but there's a definite advantage to be gained from being up with the pace. Logic alone should tell you that it's hard to pass 13 others from the back on a course that's tight and constantly turning, but these are the numbers to back up that theory...


So ideally we want a low-drawn prominent runner or leader, according to those figures, yet taken in combination with the draw, the low bias over-rides everything!

This, however, is how our runners have approached their most recent contests...

...with Paws For Thought looing the likeliest of my seven.

Summary

This looks a decent contest despite only being a Class 4 race and it's looking like Paws For Thought for me. he was a runner-up last time out, he scores well on Instant Expert for places in Flat handicaps, is drawn in the lower half of the draw and likes to get on with things early doors. The only potential problem is the 197 day lay-off prior to a run on a tight track like this, but he won here at Chester over 6f on the 5th May 2021 after 193 days off and was a runner-up beaten by a short head here over 7f, headed at the post over this trip on May 5th last year after a break of 179 days, so the MO is clear.

He's 9/2 with Bet365 and that's just about acceptable to me, I'd have preferred 5/1 or 11/2 and he might drift, but 9/2 is about OK. As for the placers, the bookies pay four here (Sky actually go to 5th) and I'd be looking inside of Paws For Thought for any possible E/W bet or horses for forecast/tricast etc purposes.

I like Oso Rapido, but he hasn't been in the best of form. Mind you, 16/1 is a decent price for E/W purposes based on his stats. Broken Spear will be there or thereabouts, but 5/1 is no E/W price for me and I've already mentally ruled Devasboy out. It's going to be tough for those drawn wider than Paws, so I'm going to leave it there.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 09/05/23

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I hope you all had a great Bank Holiday weekend and that a return to normality on Tuesday isn't too much of a bind. The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Weebill and Finest View would be of most obvious interest initially. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 7.00 Ludlow
  • 7.30 Ludlow
  • 8.45 Newcastle

The first of the two Ludlow contests is the highest rated of our 'free' races and as it also features Shortlist-highlight Finest View, it makes sense to have a look at the 7.00 Ludlow, a 13-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over two miles on good ground, that is softer in places with more rain due...

Lipa K and Kincardine both won last time out, but the latter had failed to complete his two previous outings. Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade and Cabrakan are all two from their last five, but Socialist Agenda is winless in five after back to back wins in early 2022.

Only four of these (Caroles Pass, Finest View, Tap Tap Boom & Bombyx) actually ran at this level last time with the other nine up in class, except Socialist Agenda who drops from Class 2. Of the eight class risers, all except Cabrakan step up just one level, but he's up two classes.

Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade, Bombyx and Casi Crudo are running in handicaps for just second time. Finest View wears a tongue-tie for the first time here and Socialist Agenda has a first outing since a wind operation performed during a three month break from action.

That break isn't the longest here, though. Most of the field have raced in the last nine weeks, but the exception, Galata Bridge was last seen in September 2022, so might well need the run.

All of these have won over a similar trip in the past and Tap Tap Boom has also landed a two mile chase here at Ludlow. The only other course winner is Shortlist horse Finest View, who is two from two over course and distance, including a win in this very race last year. He's 5lbs heavier here, but does have a 7lb claimer in the saddle.

In addition to the above, Instant Expert tells us that Bombyx is the only one of the pack yet to win an NH race on good / good to soft ground and that Finest View is the sole Class 3 winner, although Caroles Pass, Samuel Spade & Cabrakan have won at Class 2...

As expected, Finest View is the eyecatcher here and his place record is even stronger...

...where Tap Tap Boom's record at Class 3 remains poor. Bottom weight Casi Crudo, however, also seems like he'll relish the conditions too. If we said that Finest View and Casi Crudo were of definite interest at this stage, we then need to consider how we think they'll approach the contest and based on their recent outings...

...they both give the impression that they'll be fairly close together in mid-field in a race where Prime Time Lady looks like the one to set the pace, although Finest View did race more prominently last time out just as he did when winning this race last year. Racing further forward again here is likely to improve his chances as those setting the pace have the best record in similar past contests...

Summary

I like Finest View and Casi Crudo from above, but I'm not totally convinced they're quite good enough right now to win. The two I think I like more are Caroles Pass, who has the ideal pace profile and the in-form Kincardine, who won LTO by making all. In fairness, any of this quartet could be the winner and I don't really fancy any of them over any of the others, so with the bookies paying four places, I'd take these four for my placers.

I checked the early market from Hills at 4pm on Monday and they had the race priced up as follows...

...where I'd be happy to place a small E/W bet on three of them, but at 9/2 Kincardine is just too short for such an approach, although it would be fitting this week for him to land this for his owners, our newly crowned King and Queen.

Racing Insights, Saturday 06/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.23 Cork
  • 2.50 Newmarket
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 5.15 Newmarket
  • 7.25 Doncaster
  • 7.40 Hexham

...from which, I'm heading back to HQ, but not for either of the Appleby/Buick races, but to the 5.15 Newmarket from our 'free' list. It's an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 6f on good/good to form ground...

Bottom weight Chasseral won her last outing, Shaquille won his last two (and is three from four) and Expert Agent comes here off the back of three straight wins, whilst only Tenjin and Almaty Star are winless in their recent formline. Mind you, the latter has been placed in two of his three career starts, but the former is winless in eight and has won just one of twelve overall.

Only Tenjin, Shaquille and Ferrous raced at Class 2 LTO, as Brave Nation last raced in a Listed contest (but was last home), as did Bonny Angel (6th of 16). Washington Heights now steps up one class, Expert Angel & Eminency are up two classes, whilst Buccabay, Almaty Star & Chasseral all raced in Class 5 company most recently!

Plenty of these handciap experience, as it's just a second attempt for Washington Heights and Ferrous and it's debut day for Brave NAtion, Shaquille, Buccabay, Almaty Star and Chasseral.

None of these have won here before, mind you only four have raced here, just once each, but all bar Brave Nation, Washington Heights and Almaty Star have at least won over this trip.

Most of the field have been seen in the last four weeks, but Shaquille has been off for five months, Chasseral last raced in September 2022, whilst it's August 2022 that Brave Nation was last seen and six of the field have already scored on good or good to firm ground, according to Instant Expert...

As is often the case with early season three year olds, the place form tells us a lot more about the runners. It doesn't usually highlight a winner off such small pieces of data, but it does 'warn' you of those who might have already been tried and failed ie Brave Nation has toiled on good to firm since winning on debut, Tenjin's 'best' (and I use the word loosely) form has come on the A/W and Expert Agent has also done his best work away from the turf.

I think I've happy to discard all three at this point and Tenjin is unlikely to run after already losing here on Friday!

You'll probably not be too surprised to find there's no discernible draw bias over the straight 6f here...

...and the key to winning those races above has been pretty simple, get out quickly, run as fast as you can and hold on for as long as possible...

...which is ideal for the hat-trick seeking Shaquille from stall 11 of 11...

Summary

Shaquille ticks most boxes here, he's three from four, hasn't been treated too harshly on handicap debut, his jockey is in good form and rides this track well. Shaquille had the most 'green' on Instant Expert and has the best pace profile for this type of race. The only drawback is the 154 day break since his last run/win. That said, he did win on his racing debut and I'd expect him to be the one to beat here.

Sadly, others also expect him to win and the best we can get at 6.25pm is a widely available 3/1, but that's probably just about fair. You can then perm any two from six for the places, but the one that (mildly) interested me was Washington Heights. He probably needed the run when 9th at Thirsk recently after seven months off. Five furlongs was too sharp and he didn't enjoy the soft ground. He had ended last season finishing third of sixteen in a Listed race over 6f at Redcar, a couple of lengths behind a subsequent Group 3 winner and he'd a couple behind him who have also won since. A repeat of that run puts him in contention and 10/1 E/W (generally, but Sky & Coral pay four places) might be a good option.

Please Note : Family duties beckon on Sunday, so my next column will appear on Monday for Tuesday's racing. Enjoy your weekend however you spend it.

Racing Insights, Friday 05/05/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can, of course, also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 3.00 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Musselburgh
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 7.10 Cheltenham
  • 7.55 Newcastle

The first of those is the 'best' on paper as a Group 2 race, but with a small field and a likely short favourite, I'll take the next on the list, the competitive-looking 3.00 Newmarket, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, which is unusual at this level and more surprisingly, only bottom weight Lord Rapscallion made thframe, but even that was at Class 4, as he now steps up two classes. Persuasion and Darkness are both also up from Class 3.

The Gatekeeper did win three races ago and Final Watch won four starts back, but the rest are winless in five. They have all, however, previously won at a trip similar to this one and three have won here at HQ; Accidental Agent scored over course and distance just over a year ago and Final Watch did so almost two years ago (and has won over 7f on the July course), whilst Star Of Orion won here over 6f on debut almost three years ago and has since scored over this trip on the July course.

The bottom three on the card could be excused for needing a run, as Bass Player, Accidental Agent and Star of Orion return from breaks of 22 to 27 weeks. Top weight Persuasion is back from a two-month rest and the other four have all raced in the past four weeks with Darkness & Lord Rapscallion out as recently as last week.

Instant Expert tells us that we have four previous good to firm ground winners, one trying it for the first time and one with a really poor win record! As for Class 2 racing, just two have wins under their belt and two have really toiled...

And with a  0 from 11 record on good to firm and an even worse 0/25 at Class 2, I won't be rushing out to back Lord Rapscallion. He's not great at this trip either, nor is Star of Orion who also has a dismal Class 2 record. I'm fairly sure neither of these would be winning this one. Elsewhere. Persuasion has struggled at the trip, but those 2 wins from 15 are his only two wins in a 21-race career, so I doubt he wins this either.

Yet, his place record at the trip is pretty good and only Accidental Agent's poor place record on good to firm ground stands out as being unwanted...

...he does seem to either win or not make the frame on good to firm!

Unusually for a straight seven furlongs, we do have a slight draw bias and similarly surprisingly, it seems to favour those drawn highest in eight runner contests...

...although the advantage isn't huge. Pace, however, is a totally different kettle of fish...

Those setting the pace make the frame in half of the races, but tend to only win 1 in 14 or so, leaving the door open for the stalking horses to come in and snatch the race late on, even to the extent that hold-up horses can often watch the leaders take each other on, do too much and be left vulnerable to a late run, but for now, a prominent position looks the best option, which based on recent runs...

...might make connections of The Gatekeeper a little wary of his ability to make all from the front. The pace/draw heat map...

...suggests we should focus on...

  • the mid-drawn to high prominent runners
  • or the low drawn leaders.

Summary

Our race pace/draw combinations look like this

...where the Bass Player looks the nearest thing to a mid/high drawn prominent runner, but he has been in such poor form that we might want to wait and see how his recent wind op has changed him. The Gatekeeper, however, does seem to the low drawn leader role and based on his winning run at the start of March, he's probably the one to beat here.

He's currently available at 4/1 with Hills, which I think is more than fair and the one who might cause him most bother is probably Final Watch. The rest are a fairly mediocre bunch for a Class 2 contest and it might well be Accidental Agent or Darkness who complete the frame here.

Racing Insights, Thursday 04/05/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.30 Redcar
  • 4.40 Ayr
  • 5.45 Chelmsford
  • 5.55 Tipperary
  • 7.55 Tipperary

...which are fairly uninspiring featuring two Irish races and UK flat handicaps at Class 6 and Class 5 plus a UK Class 5 Novice A/W contest. That said, every race has a winner to be found and the best of the bunch looks like being the 4.40 Ayr, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed 7f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on display, but Classy Al was a runner-up and won two starts ago, Novak has been secind in each of his last two and Judgment Call, Lilikoi and Drakeholes do at least have a win on their five-race form line, whilst Rogue Force and Merricourt are each unplaced in their last seven outings.

Merricourt is also up in class here, which willmake life even harder, but both Classy Al and bottom weight Global Humor do at least have the respite of a drop in class. Classy Al is noted as a fast finisher and he's the only one without a run in the last seven weeks or so, as he returns from a seven month break.

Rogue Force will be hoping that a change of scenery inspires him into some form on his debut for Mike Smith and like all of his rivals, he has actually already won over a similar trip to this one. Half of the field (Judgment Call, Classy Al, Merricourt & Global Humor) are also course and distance winners.

Instant Expert doesn't add much meat to those bones above, but does point out that Merricourt, Novak and to some extent, Classy Al have toiled at Class 5, whilst Judgment Call has a poor win record here at Ayr. Elsewhere this trip hasn't tended to suit Novak, Merricourt or Global Humor, which is a shame for the latter, as he has reasonable stats across the board despite being an unreliable type...

Interestingly Global Humor is some 10lbs below his last win. Mind you, he has lost 19 in a row since scoring in September 2021, so he might not break that sequence here. As there's not much green above, let's have a look at who might be contenders for the frame via the place stats...

Again, Global Humor scores well, but his run of form is a real concern and it's Lilikoi who catches the eye here. He'll relish the quick ground and both class and trip are ideal for him. He's drawn low here in stall 2, with only the returning Classy Al inside him and the draw stats from past contests here say that whilst a high draw is preferable, your stall allocation shouldn't be the reason for a defeat...

And those two drawn lowest will probably just sit in and wait for a late run, if their last few outings are anything to go by...

...whilst it's highly likely that Novak will make a run for the line from the word go. A further look back at those races above for the draw stats says that leaders make the frame more often than any other running style but are prone to getting caught leading to a dismal win record...

Summary

It's not the best races I've ever looked at, it's not even the best race I've looked at this week and I've no real standout pick as my winner and as such won't be backing any to win.

I might however have a small E/W play on Lilikoi, if I can get a decent price about, but as of 2.50pm on Wednesday (early dart today, I've to get to a function!) there were no odds available; I'll update later tonight.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.50 Wolverhampton
  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 3.50 Ascot
  • 5.00 Ascot
  • 6.40 Brighton
  • 7.50 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner on course 1-year form and another two runners on 30-day form and even one of those is now not running!

Although it's nowhere near the best race of the day, we really should marry up our 'free' races with our feature of the day and see how James Ferguson's sole runner gets on down South. It's a second visit to the Coast on the bounce for us as we now take a look at the 6.40 Brighton, where Menalippe from the TS report will take on eight others over a left-handed seven furlongs on good to firm ground (as I suspected yesterday) in a Class 5, 3yo flat handicap...

The Toff and Quinault both won last time out and are raised 3lbs and 6lbs respectively for those runs. Featured horse Menalippe was third and has won two of her last five. Ghassan is a four-race maiden, as is Enborne, whilst Constitution has yet to win any of seven starts, making the frame just once and has been last home in each of his last three.

We've no handicap debutants or new headgeat etc on display, but four of them (Quinault, Enborne, Phoenix Glow & Estehwadh) all step up a class from the basement, despite the last three not even making the frame. All nine have raced in the last month with Quinault turned back out just six days after scoring at Chelmsford over 6f.

As is often the case at this time of year, Instant Expert has little data about a 3yo flat handicap, but we do see that both King of Ithaca and The Toff have won at this grade already and they've both won over today's trip, as have featured horse Menalippe and bottom weight Estehwadh...

Quite a lot of red there and both Constitution and Estehwadh are already looking like confirmed Class 6 types, whilst Enborne might benefit from a change of trip after four starts all at 7f.  The place stats. however, aren't quite as bleak...

...with a few places at class & trip, but Enborne has been found wanting here again whilst LTO winner The Toff is the eye-catcher. The Toff is drawn 3 of 9 here and whilst his graphic suggests a low draw is favoured...

...it doesn't really tell the whole story as stall-by-stall, you probably don't want stalls 1 or 2...

...but The Toff should be fine in stall3, as that 3 to 8 corridor looks favourite. Enborne suffers another blow here, being widest of all in #9. Those drawn highest have won in the past, though, but the heat map suggests they need to get out quickly and lead...

...but most running style/draw combos look like they'll have a chance here. LTO winner Quinault is drawn dead centre in box 5 and if he's a front runner, then he'll have the ideal pace/draw make-up, so let's check how he has been running...

He doesn't seem to be a front-runner per sé, but that prominent winning run LTO was easily his best performance to date, so he might well be further forward than the pace scores might suggest, but with at least half of the field looking like they might want to get on with it, we could have a quick one on our hands and getting on with it is the ideal way here at Brighton over 7f...

...and I'd suggest is a case of pace>draw here.

Summary

The obvious starting point is the fact we've two LTO winners and not a great deal of form elsewhere, but neither tick all the boxes. Quinault was beaten by seven lengths when last home of seven on his sole Flat appearance and was beaten by 11 lengths and 7.5 lengths on the A/W before getting off the mark at the fourth attempt last week. He's up 6lbs for that run and up in both class and trip.

As for The Toff, he started well last summer, finishing 3rd and 2nd on his first two starts, but was then placed just once in seven, including being last home twice, before arriving at this class/trip at Lingfield in late March, where on a more realistic mark of 67 he was second of nine and then finally got off the mark over the same track/trip three weeks later. He's at the same class/trip as that win a fortnight ago, but is up 3lbs for a three-quarter length success, so there's little room for error.

I suspect these will be the first two home, and then after them, you could suggest three, four or five similar types, but I'd be surprised if Menalippe wasn't on the premises at closing time. I'd be happy to back Menalippe on an E/W basis if I could get 8's or bigger and seeing as I haven't got that much separating Quinault & The Toff, I'd prefer the latter to win, because we'll get more value from the price.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 02/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where Citizen Beneral and Broxi would be of most initial obvious interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.10 Nottingham
  • 3.20 Brighton
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 7.00 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Newcastle

...from which, the 3.20 Brighton is the highest rated. It's a 10-runner, Class 3, fillies handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker/firmer in places and here's how they line up...

Rikona, She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky all won last time out and they are currently 2 from 4, 2 from 3 and 2 from 2 respectively. Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Wisper all won two starts ago, Rich & Pure Gold both won three back and only Arenas Del Tiempo and Orange Martini are without a recent win. In fairness, the latter is only a three-race maiden, but the former has lost eleven on the spin since a win at Epsom in August 2021.

None of these raced at Class 3 last time around as Crystal Estrella, Rich both drop down one class, whilst Three Priests, Wisper, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold, Orange Martini all step up one level, but Rikona, Arenas Del Tiempo & She's Hot are all up two classes here.

Quite a few of these lack handicap experience, as Crystal Estrella, Three Priests and Pure Gold have only had prior hcp run, whilst She's Hot and Maid In Kentucky are both on handicap debut today. Two of the field (Wisper and Arenas Del Tiempo) have won here at Brighton before, both scoring over course and distance, whilst Crystal Estrella and Rokina have won elsewhere over this 1m2f trip.

Half of the field have raced inside the last two months, but Crystal Estrella, Wisper, She's Hot, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are coming back from breaks of 185 to 237 days and migfht well need a run. The last thing to note from the card is that the five three year olds (Rich, She's Hot, Maid In Kentucky, Pure Gold & Orange Martini) all get a whopping 15lbs weights allowance.

Other stats to note are that Maid In Kentucky has never raced on turf before, only Arenas Del Tiempo has raced at Class 3 before (she's 0 from 3), the two course and distance winner sare the only to to have raced here and that Rich, Pure Gold and Orange Martini are trying this trip for the first time...

This lack of Instant Expert data is part of my reluctance to play the Flat early doors, but I can't swerve it forever. We do have limited info here, but you can already suggest that Wisper might go well here, especially if it dries out more, as she's won three times on good firm, whilst Arenas Del Tiempo would also prefer it quicker with a 2 from 3 record on good firm, but a poor win return on good ground, but generally speaking her place records are good...

...so I wouldn't be too hasty to rule her out here. The forecast is for dry windy weather and that might just quicken the turf up for that pair, who both drawn high (8 & 10) here, which in the past has been a good place to run from...

...over a track/trip where hold-up horses have won their fair share of races, but prominent runners have tended to be most successful...

The fact that leaders make the frame most often, but win least often suggests they get picked off late on by the stalking prominent runners and based on this field's most recent efforts...

...that would be better news for Wisper than it would for Arenas Del Tiempo from those wide draws and this dominance of the prominent runner is starkly highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...which points firmly towards Maid In Kentucky and Crystal Estrella in stalls 6 & 7 with that mid-draw prominence, whilst Rokina and Pure Gold might well fill the low drawn hold-up role here, giving them a chance.

Summary

It's hard to get away from Maid In Kentucky, even if she hasn't yet raced on turf. She's in good form, seeking a hat-trick, she's got a reasonable opening mark of 82, she gets that 15lb allowance, has won at this trip and has he ideal pace/draw combination. So she'd be my pick here at a pretty fair 7/2 with Hills.

Elsewhere, she might well pull Crystal Estrella along with her and if she's not too rusty after seven months off, could well make the frame at 12's (Bet365) and another I liked as an E/W possible was Rikona, who is 3 from 7 and a previous distance winner and is also attractively priced at 12/1, although Three Priests might well beat one or both of them with a late run.

Racing Insights, Monday 01/05/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Kempton
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.40 Kempton
  • 3.47 Warwick

And of the three UK races above, I'm going with the 3.40 Kempton, as it has the widest variation in pace profiles, as you'll see shortly. The race itself is a 12-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles (although rail movements do add another half furlong to this) on good ground...

Latitude and Duc de Beahchene both won last time out and both have finsihed 321 in their last three outings and they bring the best form to the table. Hiway One O Three has been in the frame in each of his last four, but Kap Auteuil has been pulled up in four of his last five.

Duc de Beauchene and Hiway One O Three both step up a class from Class 4 runs in the last three weeks, but Danny Kirwan and Dorking Ladwere both last seen at Class 1, failing to complete the race.

Twenty Twenty os our sole course and distance winner, but Danny Kirwan(2m NHF), Dorking Lad(2m5f Chs) and Up The Straight (2m5f Hrd) have also won here at Kempton, whilst only Danny Kirwan, Dorking Lad, Kap Auteuil, Duc de Beauchene and Hiway One O Three have yet to win at this kind of trip.

Most of the field have been out in the last two months, but Danny Kirwan, Fogot To Ask and Twenty Twenty have been off for ten weeks, five months and one year respectively.

Instant Expert tells us that Hiway One O Three has never raced at Class 3, but that all bar Good Boy Bobboy of his rivals have a Class 3 NH win under their belts. We also see below that only Movethechains and Duc de Beauchene are yet to win on good ground...

The only alarm bells I get from the above are with the trip not suiting Sporting John and Forgot To Ask and that Duc de Beauchene, Movethechains and Hiway one O Three are now rated some 11, 9 and 7 pounds heavier than their last win with both Latitude and Danny Kirwan 6lbs up. Those stats above relate to all NH form, but let's also have a quick look at chasing place form...

...which would suggest that Danny Kirwan, Latitude, Forgot To Ask, Dorking Lad, Movethechains and Twenty Twenty might well be the half of the field to focus our attentions on in a race that has in the past tended to suit those setting the pace...

...with those travelling further back having decreasing chances of both wins/places, the further off the pace they have travelled, which brings us to our daily feature : PACE. We monito and log the running style of every runner and award a score of 1 to 4 for each run, where 1 = held up, 2 = mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4= led or in leading group and our field's last four outings look like this...

Summary

I felt that the half of the field I wanted to be with was (alphabetically) Danny Kirwan, Latitude, Forgot To Ask, Dorking Lad, Movethechains and Twenty Twenty and the pace stats suggest we want to be as forward as we can and my selected half dozen have average pace scores of 3.25, 2.50, 1.25, 1.50, 1.25 and 1.75 from which I'm now only really interested in Danny Kirwan and Latitude as potential winners and it's no surprise from the stats etc above that they're 1 and 2 in the market.

They both last won at Class 3, they're both 6lbs higher than that win, but Latitude is three years younger and clearly progressive whilst unexposed over fences, having made just four starts, but finishing 3321 culminating in a win on chase handicap debut. Danny Kirwan is no mug, though and he has made the frame in half of his eight starts over fences, winning twice, but he's older, might need a run after ten weeks off and did look tired and beaten when falling two out at Ascot last time out.

I think Danny Kirwan will run his race and go well here, but I expect the market to have this right and Latitude (10/3) should beat Danny Kirwan here (5/1) and hopefully we'll get a forecast too. The rest look much of a muchness, but Duc de Beauchene (8/1) and Good Boy Bobby (also 8/1) might be the best of them. Bookies are paying four places here, so they might be E/W options.

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