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Racing Insights, Saturday 29/04/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a pair of qualifiers solely on the 1-year form filter as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Sandown
  • 2.35 Punchestown
  • 3.45 Haydock
  • 4.10 Ripon
  • 7.15 Doncaster
  • 8.15 Doncaster

...and my rules of no Irish and no Flat in April has somewhat backed me into a corner, leaving me with only the 2.15 Sandown to consider. This has 18 runners, taking me out of my comfort zone and my aim will be to find myself an E/W bet or two after If Not For Dylan was a 22/1 winner for us on Friday. This race is an 18-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase (24 fences) over 3m4½f on good to soft ground that will be soft in places and here's the card...

Annsam, Moroder and Coolvalla all won last time out, whilst Kitty's Light, Broken Halo and Mucho Mas come here seeking a hat-trick of wins. Annsam is actually 2 from 3, Certainly Red is 3 from 4 and 4 from 6, Revels Hill has 2 wins and 4 places from 6, Moroder is 5 from 7, Coolvalla is 5 from 6 and with only Tea Clipper, Enrilo and Red Happy on fairly lengthy losing runs of 8, 8 and 11 races respectively, there's a fair amount of horses in form.

That said, two thirds of the field are up in class here as only half a dozen ran at Class 1 last time out, the highlight being Kitty's Light's success in the Scottish National at Ayr just a week ago. Of the class risers, four (Annual Invictus, Moroder, Organdi, Musical Slave) are up from Class 2, half a dozen (Annsam, Certainly Red, Revels Hill, Coolvalla, Broken Halo, Mucho Mas) raced at Class 3, whilst both D'Jango and Red Happy might struggle after being well beaten in Class 4 handicaps!

Court Master runs for the first time since a wind op and he's been off the track the longest at 307 days. Organdi returns from a six-month break, but the others have all been out in the last nine weeks, with Kitty's Light turned back out just a week after that triumph at Ayr and he'll probably be grateful for the half-mile step back in trip!

Revels Hill is the only one to win at this trip before, landing a chase at Taunton in mid-March 2022 four starts ago off 9lbs lower than today. We do have six former course winners, though, in the shape of Frodon (2m7f chase), Certainly Red (2m4f chase), Enrilo (2m4f hrd), Broken Halo(3m½f chase), Musical Slave (3m chase) and Mucho Mas (also 3m chase).

Further to the above details, Instant Expert informs me that Tea Clipper, Annual Invictus, D'Jango and Red Happy are a combined 0 from 27 over fences on good to soft / soft ground and that Organdi has never tackled such conditions. We're also told that aside from Frodon's brilliant record of 13 Class 1 chase wins, only four of his rivals have won at this grade, once each...

And on the simple basis of green is good and red isn't, there are concerns about Tea Clipper (going/class), Kitty's Light (class) Annual Invictus (going), Enrilo (class), Musical Slave (class), D'Jango (going) and Red Happy (going). Conversely, the likes of Annsam, Certainly Red, Moroder and Coolvalla should like the underfoot conditions and whilst Frodon clearly isn't the force he was, now that he's 11, he's certainly proven at this level.

However, as I'm looking for some decent priced E/W plays, we need to look at the place stats...

... I think it might serve us well to isolate the categories here as follows...

...where the names cropping up most are Kitty's Light, Musical Slave, Frodon and Revel's Hill, whilst the likes of Broken Halo, Certainly Red, Coolvalla, Enrilo and The Goffer all score respectably and it's this group, that I want to focus on from here...

Sadly, we again have little pace data to to work with here...

...but the small number of horses setting the pace have done pretty well, but I wouldn't be hanging my hat on those stats too much right now, although, it suggest that the veteran frodon might well enjoy himself again, based on my shortlist's recent performances...

Frodon looks like the one most likely to set the pace here and in a race where the bookies are paying six (yes, 6!) places, he has every chance of hanging on, especially coming here with a win and three third place finishes from his last five.

Summary

If i was a sentimental type, I'd be backing/willing Frodon to win this at a generally available 14/1 (5 places) or 12/1 (6 places), but I think he'll get beaten by the two market principals Kitty's Light and Revel's Hill, but I'd be happy to back the old warrior E/W here.

As for the others on my shortlist, I'd discount Enrilo on form, Broken Halo mighty struggle up two classes and 5lbs, but Certainly Red, Coolvalla and The Goffer all look more than capable of making the frame at 14's, 10's and 9's respectively, whilst Musical Slave might be the best value at 20/1 if he runs like he did when runner-up in this race last year, half a length ahead of Kitty's Light. I'll have a couple of shillings on him too.

Racing Insights, Friday 28/04/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded no qualifiers at all so it's a good job that this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.05 Perth
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Chepstow
  • 5.30 Perth
  • 7.45 Punchestown

...from which I have chosen the first on the list, the Highland National. It's the 2.05 Perth, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase featuring 23 fences spread over 3m6½f on good to soft ground and here's how they line up...

As you can see, top-weight Court Master was due to run for the first time in ten months (during which he'd had a wind op) since being pulled up in a Listed race at Uttoxeter, but has been withdrawn from this contest, leaving us the baker's dozen competitors. He'll probably run in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday and this means that the entire field for this Perth race have all ran in the last twelve weeks with new top-weight Innisfree Lad seen as recently as nine days ago.

Silver In Disguise is our sole LTO winner, having scored over 3m½f at Wetherby earlier this month, but a few of his rivals have also won recently. Nearly Perfect is 3 from 7, Geryville is a regular placer, Fairlawn Flyer seems to win or be pulled up with four wins and 2 x P in his last six, whilst Concetto is 2 from 3, Destiny Is All is 3 from 7 and Return Fire is 2 from 6 as all of the field have won at least one of their last seven outings!

Planned Paradise, If Not For Dylan and Return Fire both now drop down from Class 2, but Fairlawn Flyer, Just Don't Know, Silver In Disguise (also up 5lbs) and Gentleman De Mai all step up a level from Class 4. Top-weight Innisfree Lad is the oldest here at 11, some 4yrs older and carrying 18lbs more than bottom-weight and joint youngest at 7, Return Fire.

None of this field have won over this trip, but Silver In Disguise won over 3m7f at Chepstow thirteen months ago. Other than that, Destiny In All's win over 3m3f at Ayr a year ago is the longest win of this field so far, although Fairlawn Flyer and If Not For Dylan have both won here at Perth before, albeit over at 3m½f hurdle and a 3m chase respectively.

The card tells us that couple of these are in first-time headgear, as Geryville is tongue-tied and Gentleman De Mai is visored, whilst Instant Expert says we have seven good to soft chase winners on display and half a dozen Class 3 chase winners, whilst Innisfree Lad is the only one to have scored at Class 2...

Innisfree Lad's record in this grade (1/13) is a worry, as is his 0 from 5 at 3m6f and beyond, but he is down to a reasonable mark, just a pound higher than his last win. Nearly Perfect has done well at Class 3 and  is 5lbs below his last win but all his best form is on soft ground. Geryville has won at both going and class but might be a little high in the weights.

Silver In Disguise poses a dilemma, as he stays the trip, but has a poor record at this level, as does If Not For Dylan. As can often be the case, the ones to consider might well be those without much relevant experience as there is a school of thought that backing horses trying something new is better than backing those that have failed repeatedly under set conditions. It's a thought, if nothing else! Perhaps, the place stats will open a door or two?

Here, you would expect to see plenty of green and regular placer Geryville catches the eye. He'll like the ground and has done well at this grade; Silver In Disguise and If Not For Dylan have struggled at Class 3, though. Destiny Is All has perfect percentage figures, as do Concetto and Gentleman de Mai off admittedly fewer runs.

And if we were to focus purely on green and amber stat percentages from the place form...

...then the five (because some bookies will pay five places here) that would interest me most from that would be (in card order) Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. That said, getting this trip here over so many fences on good to soft ground isn't easy and sadly, we don't have enough relevant pace data to help us out, as there aren't many similar races to fall back on as shown here...

Summary

In such a competitive looking race with many runners in decent nick and a lack of relevant pace data, I'm going to fall back onto the place stats from earlier and stick with my five-runner shortlist of Innisfree Lad, Geryville, Concetto, If Not For Dylan and Destiny Is All. I feel that all of them stand a great chance of making the frame and I'll be checking the market to see of any are worth an E/W punt.

As for the winner, I think it's likely to be between Destiny Is All and Concetto and I really wouldn't like to try and split them if I'm honest and I'm not really surprised that they're at the top end of the market. My shortlist are currently (6.05pm) best priced at Innisfree Lad (14/1 4 places & 12/1 5 places), Geryville (8/1 both),  Concetto (13/2 & 11/2), If Not For Dylan (20/1 & 16/1) and Destiny Is All (13/2 & 6/1).

Destiny Is All and Concetto are a little short for my liking as E/W bets, but i wouldn't try to deter you from backing any or all of the other three.

Racing Insights, Thursday 27/04/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 4.25 Warwick
  • 5.00 Warwick
  • 5.30 Warwick
  • 6.35 Punchestown
  • 7.35 Taunton

And with an 80% chance of me steering this column towards Warwick, the second of the four there appeals most to me. It's a stayers' contest and the highest rated of the four, so let's look in at the 4.25 Warwick, a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in twelve flights of hurdles over 3m1f on good to soft ground...

Martha Brae is our sole LTO winner, scoring five weeks ago after a sequence of three runner-up finishes. Elsewhere the only LTO placer was Jubilee Express, seciond best in each of his last two, but did win three starts ago. Captain Morgs won two starts ago, Docpickedme is two from three and Regarding Ruth, Midnightreflection and Butler's Brief also all scored three races ago.

Conversely Gentleman At Arms, Bothwell Bridge and Ask A Honey Bee are winless in seven, six and six races respectively with Bothwell Bridge failing to complete four of his last six and Ask A Honey Bee having three incomplete runs from six.

Only three (Gentleman At Arms, Bothwell Bridge and Butler's Brief) ran at this Class 3 level last time out, as both Martha Brae and Jubilee Express are stepping up from Class 4. Docpickedme, Ask A Honey Bee and Midnightreflection all drop down from Class 2, whilst top-weight Captain Morgs and Regarding Ruth were both in Class 1 handicap action.

After finishing as a runner-up on handicap debut a month ago, Jubilee Express now has a second crack at it and he's one of eight runners to have had an outing in the last eight weeks, but Ask A Honey Bee and Butler's Brief are returning from breaks of five and six months respectively.

We've no former course and distance winners here, but Bothwell Bridge (2m3f hrd), Regarding Ruth (2m5f hrd) and Butler's Brief (2m5f hrd) have at least won on this track before and Docpickedme, Bothwell Bridge, Martha Brae, Regarding Ruth & Midnightreflection have all scored over a similar trip to this one.

For more stats, we can turn to Instant Expert to see that half of this field have won an NH race on good to soft ground and that seven of them have at least one win at Class 3. A deeper dive would also tell you that Captain Morgs is 2 from 5 at Class 2 and that the rest of the field are a combined 0 from 26 at that level...

That's a bit of a mixed bag and Gentelman At Arms looks weak off an admittedly small number of runs. None of them really stand out right now and maybe Jubilee Express' lack of relevant runs and therefore lack of defeats might actually be a positive, but let's look at place form to see if there are any pointers there...

Now, it's Bothwell bridge who looks weak and Jubilee Express' sole relevant outing saw him make the frame. Midnightreflection has good place stats and at just 2lbs higher than his last win and stalking at the foot of the weights, might well be one to consider from an E/W perspective.

Pace/tactics haven't had that much bearing on horses making the frame here in similar past races, but those held up for a late run have often struggled to win. They have made the frame often enough, but wins have been harder to come by from off the pace...

...which probably isn't great news for Ask A Honey Bee based on recent showings...

..and I think that if push came to shove, I'd probably want to be on one that was up with the pace out of trouble in a race featuring so many runners who have failed to see races out.

Summary

Based upon everything I've written above and the fact that I want to be on a runner that's up with the pace out of trouble, the obvious pair are Docpickedme and Jubilee Express. Now, Jubilee Express is the current (5.45pm) 11/4 favourite and I think that's a bit skinny for my liking, so I'm going to suggest a small E/W play on Docpickedme at 12/1 with Hills (3places, but 10/1 at Sky if you want the security of a fourth place). I also thought that, whilst not challenging for the win,  Midnightreflection wouldn't be a terrible E/W or place bet either and he's available at 18's (or 16/1 with 4 places).

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/04/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.00 Perth
  • 4.05 Perth
  • 4.53 Ludlow
  • 5.20 Punchestown
  • 6.45 Lingfield

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have actually generated the following...

...but as Sod's Law often prevails, none of my TS qualifiers are in a 'free' race so I'm going to see if Messrs McCain and Hughes stand any chance of getting Dreams of Home to repeat last year's win in the 2.30 Perth, a competitive-looking, 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (12 fences) over a right-handed two miles on good to soft ground...

Sword of Fate was the only one of these to win last time out and he's the only one stepping up in class. Corrigeen Rock drops in class after failing to make the frame for the first time in five starts, whilst Ashington has been placed on each of his last two outings.

All five have won over today's trip and both top and bottom weight have won over course and distance; Dreams of Home landed this race last year off 2lbs higher than today and Sword of Fate (carrying 24lbs less than top-weight) scored over track/trip way back in September 2021!

Dream of Home wears a tongue tie for the first time and probable outsider Casa Tall wears first-time cheekpieces in attempt to regain past form after a poor run of form, failing to make the frame in any of his last nine, failing to complete three of them. All bar Ashington have raced in the last three to five weeks, but he has had three months rest since a hurdles outing at Sedgefield and he hasn't tackled a fence since early December 2022.

DREAMS OF HOME won this race last year off a mark of 131 and then defied a 4lb rise and a 7.5 month break to win again at Kelso in December. hasn't quite been as good since, but now on a career-low mark and could easily bounce back.

CORRIGEEN ROCK finished 1122 over fences this season before a step up to Class 2 proved too much at Ascot earlier this month, as he was beaten by some 19 lengths. He's back down in class here, but only eased by a pound, so he might have to wait to pick up some winning form.

ASHINGTON has raced 42 times so far, but only 4 times over fences, with results reading 51P2 with the last of those races coming twenty weeks ago. He might need reacquainting with these bigger obstacles and I fear that 2m could be too sharp for him.

CASA TALL failed to win any of seven over hurdles, but is three from seventeen over fences, but was three from seven! He last won 18 months ago and with a run since then reading 25FB3664U4, I'd be surprised to see him back in the winner's enclosure here, despite the first-time cheekpieces.

SWORD OF FATE won a Class 5 chase here off a mark of 101 over 2m4½f almost a year ago, but then lost eleven on the bounce before a win last time out at Wetherby after his mark had finally relented to 100. If he runs like he did last time out, then he could well defy a 5lb rise and he did win off 106 over course and distance back in September 2021, but he rarely puts two good runs back to back and the race at Wetherby LTO did pretty much fall apart, so i'm not sure about him going in again here.

Instant Expert suggests that the top two on the card might well be the ones to focus on...

...and Casa Tall's record on good to soft puts a further red mark against his chances. Sword of Fate likes it here at Perth, but has struggled in this grade with his best form coming at Class 4. Top weight and featured runner, Dreams of Home is actually 1 from 2 over two miles, but has only won one of five when asked to go another half furlong, but he is a good 6lbs lower than his last win, whilst Corrigeen Rock is 8lbs higher than a winning run from early December.

Recent pace profiles from this handful of runners suggest that Casa Tall might get cut adrift if he's not careful...

...as there might be a fair bit of early pace on, but that alone wouldn't spell the end of his chances, as there doesn't appear to be too much of a pace bias from similar past races...

...and when there's little pace bias over fences then form and ability come tot he fore and that's what will speel the end of Casa Tall's chances!

Summary

Casa Tall isn't good enough to live with the other four in my opinion, but you could probably make a case for any of the others. That said, Ashington hasn't jumped a fence for a good while and would probably prefer a longer trip, whilst Sword of Fate is up 5lbs and has hardly been reliable at putting two good runs together.

So, almost by default, we're with the two that scored best on Instant Expert and featured horse Dreams of Home seems a more likely winner here based on the weights, but Corrigeen Rock should give him a decent race.

The competitive nature of the contest is shown by Hills (only market open at 3.40pm) early prices...

...but it'd be Dreams of Home to retain the race for me.

Racing Insights, Friday 21/04/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced three qualifiers...

And our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.05 Newbury
  • 2.50 Fontwell
  • 3.08 Cork
  • 4.30 Fontwell
  • 4.50 Cork
  • 6.35 Exeter

Both Ayr runners on my H4C report go in Class 2 contests, but it's the latter of the two races that interests me most, as E/W backers can get three places in the 3.35 Ayr, where the in-form Charm Offensive takes on eight other rivals in a Class 2, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over a left handed 3m½f (after a +60 yards rail movement) on good to soft ground...

Only Jasmiwa won last time out, but that was a Class 4 contest and she's up two grades here. That said, she'll be in good heart, having won two of her last three. Featured horse Charm Offensive has three wins and two runner-up finishes from her last five outings and now steps up one class, whilst Great Snow makes a second handicap appearance after finishing third in a Newbury Grade 2 contest on handicap debut four weeks ago. Aubis was pulled up in that same race on her handicap bow and now also drops in class.

Bellatrixsa and Aurora Thunder are winless in five and eight NH races respectively and whilst the former drops in class here, it'll be tough for the latter stepping up from Class 4. Sabrina has made the frame in seven of her last eight outings, but also steps up in class here. Charm Offensive might well need a run here, after a 113-day absence but aside from last year's winner Get A Tonic coming back from two months off, the rest of this field have all raced since the start of March.

Winning this race last year makes Get A Tonic, the only course and distance winner in the field, as Charm Offensive's two wins here were at 2m4½f/2m5f and Aurora Thunder is the only other course winner, having also won over 2m4½f. Great Snow and Jasmiwa have won at this trip in the past, though and stamina may be the key here.

All the above data comes from your racecard above, but clicking the Instant Expert tab will also reveal four previous NH winners on good to soft ground and just the one previous Class 2 success...

Get A Tonic is that sole Class 2 winner, courtesy of winning this race last year, but she has failed to place in the three defeats at this level. Sabrina has made the frame in two of three Class 2 runs and Aurora Thunder managed to place in five of her nine efforts, but a 0 from 9 win record is worrying, as is her 0 from 6 at the trip. If we looked a little closer at place form...

...we'd probably not fancy Sabrina on good to soft ground and we'd still have questions about Aurora Thunder staying the trip. Charm Offensive's record here is exceptional, but she has a career record of just one win from five at any trip beyond 2m5f, but she has made the frame in three of the four defeats.

I suggested that stamina could well be the key here and there's quite a few way this field have approached their recent outigs and if we consider how they've raced in their last three contests...

...you'd expect class-dropper Great Snow to be setting the pace here, closely followed by Bellatrixsa and Sabrina, whilst last year's winner Get A Tonic looks like he has been waited with of late, despite that win here coming from a prominent racing position. Last year's tactics have proven to be more successful than a hold-up approach here...

...and she'd probably be best served by a switch in tactics here, if she's to succeed, as might well Charm Offensive.

Summary

For me, the one to beat is Great Snow. She ran really well to finish third of fifteen in a Grade 2 handicap four weeks ago and with her front-running tactics could be difficult to catch/beat. She's unexposed and has already won over three miles and the only surprise to me is that she's available at 9/2 with Bet365.

As for who might chase her home, Get A Tonic won this last year, Charm Offensive loves it here and both should go well, but wouldn't be E/W bets at just 6/1 and 9/2 respectively. I don't normally dip below 8/1 for an E/W pick and based on that Sabrina would be the likeliest. She'll be up with the pace, has gone well at class/trip before and if it dries out any, she could edge one of the others out for a place.

Racing Insights, Thursday 20/04/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.25 Cheltenham
  • 4.30 Ripon
  • 4.35 Tramore
  • 5.05 Ripon

And it's back to Jumps HQ for another chase for this column, but this time the 4.25 Cheltenham is a 6-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Mares/ handicap chase, taking in 13 fences over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground...

Hawthorn Cottage was the only one of the six to taste victory last time out and she's two from five. Pink Legend has a win and a place from her last two, Doyannie has a win and two places from her last three, but Fortunes Melody and Lost Connections are winless in six and seven races respectively. The former, however, is a regular placer but the latter is a seven-race maiden, who now runs from 19lbs out of the handicap. Doyannie runs from 12lbs out of the handicap and I'd say that rules both of them out of this one.

Of the remaining four, none raced at this grade last time out, as Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage step up a level from Class 4, whilst Royale Margaux was fourth of nine at Class 2 and Pink Legend was a placer in a Grade 2, having previously won a Listed event. All bar Royale Margaux have won in the UK at this type of trip, whilst both Pink Legend and Hawthorn Cottage have already won here at Cheltenham (2m4½f chase and 2m1f bumper respectively).

All four have been seen inside the last five weeks and there's nothing new to report about them re: headgear or yard changes etc, but I can add that Instant Expert says that four of the field have a good ground UK chase win, but only one has won at Class 3...

...but that doesn't count Pink Legend's three Class 1 wins or the fact that both her and Fortunes melody have also won at Class 2. Royale Margaux is 0 from 3 here in the UK, but did win 7 of 13 in France including a Listed chase and hurdles wins at Listed & Grade 1!

That would suggest she's definitely got something about her, but it just hasn't quite worked out yet for her since leaving David Cottin's yard in France for Tom Symonds' Herefordshire base. Her pace profile (below) also raises the possibility that the yard haven't really decided on what tactics would work best for her either...

This indecisiveness, allied to the fact that front-runners have excelled in similar past races...

...could make this another frustrating afternoon for her and her team, as Pink Legend, Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage look set to fight it out.

Summary

If we are to focus on those three pace-setters (Pink Legend, Fortunes Melody and Hawthorn Cottage), this is probably Pink Legend's race to win/lose. Down two classes from a solid Grade 2 third place at last month's Festival, the drop in trip will help, as will the non-appearance of a couple of quality Irish mares.

I'm not a big fan of backing short-priced favourites and 6/4 looks a bit skinny, but she should be winning this relatively easily. As for the runner-up or forecast horses, I'd say that Fortunes Melody was better treated at the weights than Hawthorn Cottage, who'd probably want some rain to come anyway.

So, it's the 6/4 Pink Legend to beat the 5/1 Fortunes Melody for me, based on the stats above, but if Royale Margaux decides to go with the pace, she could do very well too.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 19/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 1.50 Newmarket
  • 2.50 Beverley
  • 7.15 Gowran park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

14-day form

30-day form

Course 1-year form

Course 5-year form

and with the in-form Garry Moore, as featured on my 14-day form report from Trainer Stats, having a runner in the first of our 'free' races and that race being a Class 1 affair, it makes sense for me to look at the 1.30 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase (16 fences) over a left handed 2m4½f on good ground that will be softer in places...

FORM : Herbiers won last time out, Gemirande is two from four, Heltenhm has won three on the spin and Presentandcounting is three from four and 4 wins (+2 places) from his last six. Cilaos Emery, Captain Tom Cat and Deyrann de Carjac are winless in 7, 7 and 15 races respectively.

CLASS : Only five of these (Caribean Boy, Coole Cody, Gemirande, Presentandcounting & Deyrann de Carjac) ran at Class 1 last time out, as Cilaos Emery, Heltenham, Super Six, Captain Tom Cat & Zhiguli all raced at Class 2 with Herbiers & Unanswered Prayers now both stepping up two classes.

ANYTHING NEW? Cilaos Emery runs in a handicap for only the second time and wears a first-time tongue tie, whilst Caribean Boy runs for the first time since a wind op.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar top weight Cilaos Emery have won over a similar trip to this one, whilst Coole Cody and Unanswered Prayers are both former course and distance winners and Captain Tom Cat has won a 2m5½f hurdle here at HQ.

DAYS SINCE RUN : Presentandcounting last raced 194 days ago, whilst Caribean Boy and Deyrann de Carjac return from breaks of 81 and 108 days with the remainder of the field having run in the last 10 weeks. Captain Tom Cat's runner-up finish LTO was just nine days ago!

Elsewhere, Instant Expert tells me that Heltenham, Super Six and Zhiguli have yet to win a good ground chase and that only four of the field have landed a Class 1 pot over fences...

Others to note are Deyrann de Carjac's poor return at Class/Course.Distance and Caribean Boy's low success at Class 1. Plenty of these are racing off marks 10 to 18lbs lower than their last win, but that's a sign of poorly they have been running of late, although Presentandcounting is in great form over hurdles right now, but runs some 13lbs lower than his last chase win, suggesting he could go well if converting that form to the bigger obstacles. Conversely, form horse Heltenham is up 11lbs for his latest win, making him some 27lbs higher than before his three-race winning streak.

Heltenham and Presentandcounting couldn't approach their races any more differently than they do, though. The former is likely to leave a run for the line until fairly into procedings, whilst Presentandcounting loves to race from the front as does another in-form runner, Gemirande...

...and with the likes of Coole Cody, Unanswered Prayers, Cilaos Emery & Captain Tom Cat also showing a fondness for front running, there could be some fireworks early doors in a contest that has favoured those racing further forward than mid-division...

Summary

I think that Heltenham might well be the best horse in the race on a level playing field, but he'll find it tougher here up in class, up 11lbs and racing from the back of the field with a strong pace ahead of him. That doesn't mean he can't win, of course, but at odds of around 3/1, I'd be reluctant to chance my money.

However, two other form horses do like to race prominently and as such Gemirande might be a better value win bet at 6/1 after only missing out by a head in the Greatwood Gold Cup last time out, whilst if Presentandcounting can transfer some of his hurdles form to these larger obstacles, then his 16/1 ticket could be a decent E/W option, especially if you've got accounts with SkyBet and/or Unibet, as they're paying five places!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 18/04/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Mister X would be of immediate interest. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.05 Tipperary
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 3.50 Tipperary
  • 4.25 Tipperary
  • 6.00 Southwell

They say it's a long way to Tipperary and I've no desire to go racing there, a decision allied to my steadfast unwillingness to consider Flat racing in April leads me/us to either the last of the 'free' races or to look at Mister X and as the latter runs in what looks a marginally better race on paper, we're off to the 2.00 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo, A/W handicap over a left handed 7f on standard polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Albert Cee, Topo Chico and The Toff were all runners-up, whilst Mister X's win two starts ago here over course and distance is the only recent win from any of these runners. In fact his rivals are a combined career 0 from 34!

Ferensby and Trilby head the weights and both drop in class for their handicap debuts, whilst Aurora Dawn also tackles handicap company for the first time. Albert Cee and Topo Chico both step up in class, despite never having won a race at any class. As Mister X is the sole winner in the field, it's obvious that he'd be the only one to have won at either track or trip and he did win over course and distance two starts ago.

Aurora Dawn has been off the track for almost twelve weeks, but the remainder have all been out since the start of March with three of them running this month already.

Instant Expert won't show many wins, of course, but it might show who has tackled similar conditions and failed...

Mister X should relish the conditions off just 1lb higher than his last win, whilst red flags are raised for Topo Chico for going/class/distance and The Toff for class/distance, but maybe the place stats will show them in a better light...

...and thankfully for all bar Aurora Dawn, that does appear to be the case. Mister X does still look well set, but Topo Chico has better percentage figures for going/class/distance with the obvious caveat that he's still a maiden after nine races.

Mister X's apparent supremacy is tempered, however, by the fact that stall1 has been the worst performing stall over 7f on the A/W here at Lingfield in 7-runner races...

...and that data isn't great news for Topo Chico out in box seven either, so much will depend on the pace/tactics of the race. Those races above have tended to be dominated by those willing to race from the front...

...with hold-up horses faring worst of all and if we look at how this field has approached recent (largely unsuccessful) outings...

...suggesting that not only is Topo Chico badly drawn, he might also need to pass six runners to win this. Mister X looks like he'll be up with the pace and his course/distance experience might well come into play here.

Summary

It looks a very open race between seven pretty average horses and with his profile, I'm really surprised that Mister X is the 14/1 outsider of the field with Bet365 at 5.40pm.

None of his rivals have convinced me enough to back them, so I'd be looking at a small E/W play on The Shortlist horse Mister X at 14's.

Racing Insights, Monday 17/04/23

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No column for the last two days of last week, as I was travelling through Europe to Crete, where I am now on their Easter Sunday. Enough of that, though, now back to work!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 4.40 Redcar
  • 5.15 Tramore
  • 5.25 Windsor
  • 5.40 Kelso

A handful of races for you to look at, but for me my dislike of April Flat / Irish / Bumper races leaves me with Hobson's Choice, the 3.20 Kelso! That said, it's a decent enough contest on paper, despite being a small field. The withdrawal of Methodtothemadness means that last year's winner and top weight Bavington Bob only has four rivals for this Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m7½f. They'll have seventeen fences to clear on good to soft ground and here's the card...

None of these managed to win last time out, but both Marown and Domandlouis were runners-up and the former is now winless in eight, whilst Bavington Bob's win in this race last year was his last success and he's now on a losing streak of seven, but he is the sole course and distance winner in the field.

Of the others, Marown won a chase over 3m1f at Wetherby, whilst Saint Arvans and Domandlouis have both previously won here at Kelso over hurdles (2m½f & 2m5f respectively). Domandlouis is, however, up two classes here, whilst Bavington Bob drops down from Class 2, where five of his last seven runs/defeats have been.

Saint Arvans is turned out after just nine days rest, whilst Slanelough hasn't been seen for over 14 weeks.

Instant Expert suggests that last year's win by Bavington Bob might not have been a fluke as he would appear to be best suited by the conditions expected here...

Marown seems to have struggled at this grade over fences and if we're honest, he just hasn't won often enough since starting his career with a bumper win and two hurdles successes. Domandlouis hasn't much experience under today's conditions, but a line of red is less than encouraging. Bavington Bob is clearly the one at class/trip that they'd have to beat and the report of last year's triumph says...held up, headway on outer over 3 out, ridden in 2nd under 2 out and soon challenged, led last, ran on well and pulled clear flat, won comfortably by nine lengths...

His recent pace profile suggests that he's likely to be waited with once again...

...whilst the pace-setter is expected to be Slanelough, who has made all to win four of his last ten over fences, but it should be noted that he's 0 from 9 beyond 2m4f!

Leaders haven't had it all their own way in small field chases here at Kelso, though, but they have performed significantly better than hold-up horses, suggesting that Bavington Bob's success last season might have been a rare exception to the norm...

...stats that would appear to hand the initiative to Domandlouis, Saint Arvan & Marown.

Summary

Marown is the relatively short-priced favourite here at 15/8, but he's 2lbs heavier than when beaten over 2m4f last time out and I should point out that he lost his previous two by 33 and 47 lengths respectively when asked to run three miles, so 15/8 is too skinny for me.

Domandlouis is next best in the betting at 9/4, but he was beaten by 7.5 lengths over this trip last time out and is now up two classes, so it might well be right time/right place for last year's winner, Bavington Bob. Instant Expert says he'll relish the conditions most, he gets the track and trip and has a good record at Class 3. He's back to his last winning mark and although the pace profile casts doubts, it's not as though he'll have a wall of traffic ahead of him, there are only five runners here.

BB is currently priced at 7/2 with Hills and whilst I thought we might get a little more juice in the price than that, he'd be the one that represented best value here to me.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 13/04/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Aintree
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 8.30 Chelmsford

The best of those races is undoubtedly up here in the North West, where it's almost inconceivable that the 1/7 priced Constitution Hill would get beat, after winning all five of his Grade 1 starts to date with an average winning margin of over 14 lengths, but with all his rivals being priced up at 14/1 or longer, we could pick ourselves up a nice E/W bet or forecast from the 3.30 Aintree, a 6-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ hurdle race over a left-handed 2m4f (+62 yds rail movement)...

CONSTITUTION HILL is 5 from 5 in Grade 1 contests without really breaking sweat. Yes, he's up in trip by the best part of 3 fulrongs, but the manner of his last two victories suggests another easy win.

I LIKE TO MOVE IT has won a Class 1 handicap and a Grade 2 contest this season, but was only 6th of 7 and 34 lengths behind Constitution Hill at Cheltenham last time out with the re-opposing Zanahiyr three places and 21 lengths ahead of him. he wouldn't be a contender for the top 2 on that run, but he has won here in the past, landing a bumper on debut back in November 2020.

SCEAU ROYAL wears cheekpieces for the first time today after going down by just a length and a half in a grade 2 event at Fontwell last time out. he was third here in 2022's Melling Chase and has won three grade 2 hurdles, but hasn't proven himself in seven efforts at this level.

SHARJAH might not be the horse he was, but he's won seven Grade 1 hurdle races in an illustrious career and was beaten by less than 3 lengths (4th of 24) in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham. You know he'll run his race, virtually all of his career has been over a two mile trip.

ZANAHIYR was running a big race in this contest a year ago when falling at the last under pressure from the eventual winner Epatante who re-opposes here. Another similar effort puts him right in the mix for a place, especially after getting within 13 lengths of Constitution Hill at Cheltenham last time out. Not many have got that close and the trip shouldn't be an issue.

EPATANTE is the only mare in the race and gets a useful 7lb concession. She is, of course a course and distance winner, courtesy of winning this very race last year. She beat all bar stablemate Constitution Hill in both the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle last winter before a routine win in a Doncaster Grade 2 in late January. She wasn't at her best at the Cheltenham festival, but reunited with her stablemate here could see another Nicky Henderson big-race 1-2.

At this point, I've got the battle for silver as a 2-horse contest between Zanahiyr and Epatante, but let's check collateral form via Instant Expert...

...which pretty much speaks for itself and is a tick for the mare Epatante, who also comes out on top on place form...

Based on recent pace profiles, I wouldn't be surprised if the favourite was allowed to set the tempo of the contest in afield lacking an out and out front runner...

...and I suppose the key here might be to see if you could stop him from running too far clear. The chances are that he'll be allowed to dominate, giving us a 5-runner contest for the £53k runner-up prize. As it happens, similar small field races here have been kind to those 'chasing' the leader(s)...

...although I suspect the chase will be at a distance here. Hold-up horses have done well enough too and there's not really much to choose between the bottom four on the pace graphic. I Like To Move It might well be the one who tries to go with the fav, but he weakened late on during his only other effort at this trip and going off too quickly would end his chances here.

Summary

Barring a disaster, Constitution Hill should be cantering home well ahead of the field. Is 1/7 value or not? I'll let you decide for yourselves, but at the stakes I play at, it's not worth bothering. The race for second, however, could be fascinating between Zanahiyr and Epatante with the latter hopefully prevailing. She's (LTO aside) in good nick, seems to run well whenever her stablemate  Constitution Hill is around and is proven at track/trip. Both contenders are priced at 14/1, but Epatante shades it for me.

My 1-2-3 would be Constitution Hill/Epatante/Zanahiyr with me going E/W on the mare and doing the forecast.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.25 Nottngham
  • 4.25 Nottngham
  • 4.35 Southwell
  • 7.15 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated quite a few runners for me to consider...

...but as I don't really do the Flat in April nor Irish racing at the best of times, I'm self-restricted to picking a race from either Kempton's A/W card or the jumps meeting at Southwell and it's to the former I go, as the 7.30 race featuring Ivan Furtado's Moai is the highest rated of the race I have TS report qualifiers in. In fairness, I'm fairly sure that Moai stands little/no chance of winning the 7.30 Kempton, but hopefully there's still a bet for us from this 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

My starting point is always the card itself as it gives us an easy/gentle introduction to the runners and the five aspects I consider first are...

FORM : Arctician is the sole LTO winner and comes here on a hat-trick, having made the frame twice before a pair of wins. Golden Sands and Intercessor both won two starts ago and both have made the frame in three of their last four with the latter winning twice. Tollard Royal, Darwell Lion and Fantasy believer are the only others with a win in their last five outings, as all three won five starts ago.

CLASS : Lots of movers here, as one (Golden Sands) steps up a class, whilst six (Spinaround, Rhythm n Rock, Darwell Lion, Hieronymous, Fantasy Believer & Cliffs of Capri) all drop down one level, whilst one (Spirit of the Bay) raced two grades higher at class 2 LTO.

WHAT'S NEW? : Featured horse Moai wears cheekpieces for the first time, whilst Longlai makes a first run for Michael Wigham's yard after leaving Richard Hannon, having won just two of fifteen.

COURSE/DISTANCE : All bar five (Spinaround, Darwell Lion, Moai, Longlai & Intercessor) have already won here at Kempton, whilst all bar the in-form Arctician have won over a one mile trip. Six of the field (Tollard Royal, Rhythm n Rock, Spirit of the Bay, Hieronymous, Fantasy Believer & Golden Sands) are former course and distance winners.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : Six of these (Cliffs of Capri, Darwell Lion, Arctician, Moai, Fantasy Believer and Spinaround) have all raced inside the last four weeks. Golden Sands has been off for six weeks and Hieronymous for almost two months, but five of these (Rhythm n Rock, Intercessor, Spirit of the Bay, Tollard Royal & Longlai) migfht well need the run after layoffs ranging from 145 to 279 days.

The above helps me build a pros and cons list for each runner and then I check their performance on similar going/class/weight via INSTANT EXPERT...

...which based on win stats would appear to favour runners 2 to 8. Arctician seems to have struggled on the slower A/W track here at Kempton, whilst Golden Sands' numbers are at least not in the red and it may well be this inside-drawn runner might be more of a placer than a winner, so let's check the place stats too...

...where again the top half of the field (2 to 7 actually) look strongest, but Arctician's Kempton numbers do include 4 places from 7 and Golden Sands looks well set for a decent run under these conditions, but will stall 1 be a help or a hindrance, as my next port of call is...

THE DRAW : where there appears to be a definite advantage in being drawn low if you look at the graph, but the actual numbers aren't really that far apart...

...and whilst those drawn closest to the rail might well have that advantage on paper, it's likely to boil down to how they use their stalls position and that's why we need to consider...

PACE : with those races above favouring those racing furthest forward...

Based on this field's most recent outings, Golden Sands and Intercessor look like being the ones trying to blast out (from stalls 1 and 13 respectively!) early to vy for the lead with Moai, Spirit of the Bay and Cliffs of Capri the early back markers...

Now although a low draw and a leading position are the two generally favoured options, the HEAT MAP says that high drawn leaders have gone best of all here. This is possibly due to those drawn lowest getting cramped for room on the turn, but they have still won more than their fair share here...

And when we apply that heat map to out racecard in draw order, the two front-runners at either end of the draw come up very favourably indeed...

Summary

I think that the top two in the market, Tollard Royal (best priced 5/2 at 5pm) and the 5/1 Arctician are probably the best runners in the race and if I was to suggest one of those, it'd be the in-form Arctician. The fav could well need a run after 204 days off track and it has been 18 months since an A/W run and that might just be the difference. Both are drawn in the same draw sector with similar pace profiles, so I'd be siding with the longer-priced form horse today.

I'm not massively confident, mind, so it'd be small stakes on Arctician and I'm more interested in the two pace horses from each end of the stalls. They're sure to go off quickly and might well grab themselves a decent, soft lead early doors. Both are in decent nick, both are priced attractively at 18/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair paying four places. so both Golden Sands and Intercessor could be decent E/W bets here. The latter has, of course been off the track for nearly six months, so that might reduce his chances, but he has previously won after a 353-day break and both of these receive weight from the rest of the field.

As for feature horse, Moai, not finishing last would be an achievement here!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/04/23

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Hi guys, hope you all had a great Easter. I certainly did and I'm ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 1.15 Exeter
  • 2.45 Exeter
  • 4.00 Pontefract
  • 6.45 Dundalk

Of all the 'free' races and those containing runners from The Shortlist, the 3.45 Exeter interests me most on what is frankly a pretty poor day of racing. Miss Fairfax and Raddon Top go in this one and it's a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on good to soft ground...

Ballydisco and Gerico Ville both won last time out and the latter has won two of his last three.Miss Fairfax, Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Biowavego are all two from four and Come On Gruff is two from five, whilst Skandiburg and Ballymagroarty Boy are winless in 15 & 20 races respectively.

Most of these raced at this grade last time out, but the top two in the weights, Skandiburg & Miss Fairfax both drop a class here, as does So Said I. Hauraki Gulf is on handicap debut and it's only the second handicap outing for both Miss Fairfax and Ioupy Collonges.

Only three of this field (Miss Fairfax, So Said I & Raddon Top) have won at Exeter before and all have won over course and distance, whilst Skandiburg, Ballymagroarty Boy, Gerico Ville, Ballydisco and Biowavego have all won at this kind of trip elsewhere.

Most of the field have been out for a run inside the last five weeks or so, but both Come On Gruff and Biowavego were last seen in November of last year and might well need the run.

We have two mares in the race (Miss Fairfax & So Said I), seven previous good to soft winners and all bar Hauraki Gulf have won at Class 4, according to Instant Expert...

...where Ballymagroarty Boy definitely looks the weak link with a line of red. Skandiburg hasn't gone well on good to soft and prefers a shorter trip, whilst Hauraki Gulf's sole win was at Class 5. Shortlisted horse Raddon Top will relish most of the conditions, but would really want a downpour to come, as his best form is on soft or heavy ground.

Miss Fairfax has some good numbers, though, as do Ioupy Collonges, Gerico Ville and Snipe off admittedly small sample sizes.

This type of race has previously tended to suit those wanting to set the pace...

...which, based on recent outings is a definite positive for the likes of Ioupy Collonges, So Said I and Gerico Ville...

Summary

Fairly brief today, because I don't feel the need to dig too deep with a pair of outstanding candidates like Ioupy Collonges and Gerico Ville and I'd be rally surprised if they weren't the first two home. Both are in great form, both scored well on Instant Expert and both will be right up with the pace. Ioupy is the 3/1 fave with Gerico offering more value at 6's and I don't think they're that far apart personally and I'd probably side with Gerico Ville today.

He's proven at this trip and beyond and is only 2lbs higher than his LTO win, whilst Ioupy Collinges was beaten by over five lengths off this mark last time out and is asked for an extra 3½f here. He will win handicap races for sure, but I'm not convinced this one will be his first.

As for an E/W bet, So Said I might fit the bill at 16/1 with most bookies paying four places. She clearly needed the run at Chepstow last month after more than a year off but prior to her break, she had three wins and a place from her previous five outings, including a course and distance win here. She stays three miles, likes some cut in the ground and if up with the pace as expected could well hang on for a place.

Racing Insights, Friday 07/04/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Newcastle
  • 2.40 Lingfield
  • 3.25 Bath

As is generally the case, I shy away from the Flat in early April, so the Bath contest is a no-go for me and whilst the Lingfield race is a decent-looking Class 3 handicap, the first on the list is probably the best of the three and that's the 1.50 Newcastle, a 10-runner, Class 2 Conditions Stakes for 3 yr olds. It's over a straight 6f on standard tapeta and a first prize of over £77k awaits one of these...

The entire field has at least one win inside their last four outings with Danger Alert (2 from 3), Desert Cop, Michaela's Boy (2 from 2), Shaquille (2 from 2 and 3 from 4), Hello Queen (2 from 3 ) and Perdika (4 from 4) all winnig last time out.

Less than half of them raced at Class 2 last time out, as Danger Alert, Michaela's Boy, The X O and perdike all step up two classes, whilst Desert Cop raced at Class 5. Conversely, Shouldvebeenaring was beatenh by just over a length in a Listed contest and drops down here.

Perdika wears a tongue tie for the first time here and Michaela's Boy is the only one yet to win over today's trip, although he has won here at Newcastle over 5f, as has Glorious Angel with Hello Queen being our sole course and distance winner having won LTO five weeks ago.

Conditions Stakes mean they all carry 9st 7lbs except the three fillies, Glorious Angel, Hello Queen and Perdika. And with Perdika having the highest OR (104), she's best off at the weights, effectively 6lbs well in with second best Shouldvebeenaring. Desert Cop looks worst off, rated 25lbs worse than perdika, but carrying 5lbs more : that's a tough ask over 6f.

Shaquille might need a run after a four-month break, but aside from Desert Cop's 51-day absence, the others have all raced at least once in the last five weeks. Shaquille, however, is the only runner in the field with a Class 2 A/W win to his name, whilst Desert Cop is the only one without a standard going win. These details along with the course/distance/weight datea can be seen here in Instant Expert...

...from which, I'd say Shaquille, Hello Queen and Perdika caught my eye first. All three are drawn in stalls 7 to 10 with Shouldvebeenaring, but I'd need to check the draw stats to see if that is likely to have any bearing on the outcome...

The 'bias' doesn't appear to be huge with win% ranging from 8.38 to 11.75, but that's possibly bigger than it might seem with 11.75 equating to 140% of 8.38, so in real terms those drawn high are 40% more likely to win here over 6f assuming, of course, they get their tactics right and as with many straight A/W sprints, it has paid to be at the head of affairs...

...which, combined with the draw stats, makes the heat map fairly unsurprising...

If we then look at how the field have approached their most recent races...

...then I'd expect Michaela's Boy, Desert Cop, Shaquille, Glorious Angel and Perdika to be making the running and if we add those runners to our heat map and arrange the field into draw order, it doesn't look good for Shouldvebeenaring, but most of the field would be happy with their lot...

Summary

I expect Michaela's Boy to blast out and attempt to win from the front, but he's up two classes here and has all his best form over 5f. Desert Cop was weak finishing in two 7f contests before landing a Class 5 maiden over 6f last time out, but this is much tougher and might be too much of a step up too soon. Glorious Angel has the benefit of the 5lb allowance but has toiled in her last three UK and one French outing since winning here by a neck over 5f in January.

I don't really fancy any of those three to win and if I was to pick one of those, it would be Michaela's Boy as an E/W pick at a rather attractive 18/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power (or 14's with Hills paying four places).

As for my winner, I think I've narrowed down to Shaquille and Perdika. Both are in good form, Perdika is best off at the weights, both scored well (green) on Instant Expert with Perdika having the better numbers. Both are drawn high and both will race prominently and I'd expect both to be involved. That said, the 6/1 (Bet6365) Perdika appeals more than the 7/2 (Coral & Ladbrokes) Shaquille, so that's how I'd play it.

Good Luck & Happy Easter!

Please note, I'm away at a wedding on Good Friday, so no Saturday preview and I'm back with you on Monday afternoon/evening for Tuesday's racing.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 06/04/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.20 Bellewstown
  • 2.25 Hereford
  • 2.30 Bellewstown
  • 4.45 Hereford
  • 7.15 Clonmel

Unfortunately for me, that list is 60% Irish, leaving me with just the two Hereford races to consider and neither of those float my boat, as one's a maiden hurdle and the other a novice handicap, so I'll pass on both of those and I'll be back tomorrow!

Only joking, of course. As a man far more talented than I, once said "The Show Must Go On!" and with that in mind, I'm going to find another race to look at. I am, of course, self-impeded by my reluctance to play the Irish game and I don't really do the Flat in April, whilst the 'best' UK races on Thursday are at Class 4. So, a non-Flat, non-novice/maiden, non-Irish, Class 4 race is where we'll head and that takes us to the 6.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile on standard tapeta...

None of these won last time out, but Athmad was second attempting to complete a hat-trick, whilst Dubai Jeanius was also a runner-up after winning all five starts this year. Francesi and Kaaranah have been runing consistently well without quite winning.

Intervention is noted as a fast finisher here and Kingmania makes a debut for James Ferguson after leaving Chris Wall's yard. She now wears a hood for the first time, as does Kaaranah, who like Candy Warhol and Vaccine, is stepping up a class here, whilst My Silent Song is down two classes.

Our sole class dropper might, however, need the run after a break of 169 days, but he's not the only one who might be a bit race-rusty as Francesi, The Mouse King, Kingmania and Kaaranah have all been tucked away for five months or more, whereas the remaining seven have all raced in the last 7 to 37 days.

Chief's Will and Athmad are previous course and distance winners, whilst Dubai Jeanius is 4 from 4 over 1m3f/1m4f here. Intervention has won here over 6f and 7f with The Mouse King a Southwell winner at 7f on his only previous visit four starts ago (August '22). Elsewhere Francesi, Plastic Paddy, My Silent Song and Kaaranah have all won at a similar trip to this one.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, can verify those course/distance stats and also tell us that seven of this field share twenty-three previous A/W wins on standard going, but only two of them have won at Class 4. We also see that all seven A/W winners are running off higher marks than their last win, carrying 3lbs to 8lbs more here...

The in-form pair of  Dubai Jeanius and Athmad are the two that initially catch my eye from a positive point of view, whilst my concerns are starting to build about Plastic Paddy (class) and Intervention (going/class), whilst Chief's Will hasn't set the world alight at going/distance either. It's going to be hard for me to suggest any of that trio might win this from those stats, but the place stats might suggest they could make the frame?

Again Dubai Jeanius looks strong, but Athmad's numbers haven't really improved much, suggesting he's a win or bust type, perhaps. Plastic Paddy's line looks better, but still worse than most, whilst Candy Warhol looks like he'd be better off elsewhere, although his Flat record is just as uninspiring.

The draw here at Southwell on the Tapeta suggests that those drawn highest might have a bit of extra work to do to get round and win...

...which would put Kingmania, Candy Warhol and My Silent Song in a bit of trouble, but much would depend on how they approached the race from widest out. If they run like they have in their last few outings, I'd expect Candy Warhol to set off pretty quickly with Kingmania likely to settle in at the back of the pack with the in-form Dubai Jeanius...

Chief's Will looks like being our pacesetter with a clump of five or six tracking him and if we go back to those 40-odd races above that we drew the draw data from, we're informed that anything bar a hold-up position is OK here...

...which isn't the best news for Plastic Paddy, Athmad, Dubai Jeanius or Kingmania, which presents me with a dilemma.

Summary

I think Dubai Jeanius is the best horse in the race, but having to pass most of the field later in the contest has proven difficult here at Southwell and that throws a spanner in the works for me. He's 11/2 joint second fav and that's not long enough for an E/W bet and I'm unsure he can get round the field, so I'll have to look elsewhere.

Next on my list is Athmad, who'd be a good pick for a place normally, but he's drawn high enough (almost too high in #9) and is another hold-up type and like the runner above, 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me.

Francesi, however, was in solid form prior to a five month break, is drawn low and will race prominently. His place stats at going/class/distance put him right in the mix and at 6/1, he's probably the one I'd back to win and if I wanted a pair of small speculative E/W punts, then I'd be looking at the likes of Chief's Will & Intervention at 11's and 14's respectively, especially if you can get four places, as they're still going to have to compete with Dubai Jeanius and Athmad for the places.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/04/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Wolverhampton
  • 4.15 Leopardstown
  • 4.35 Wincanton
  • 5.52 Leopardstown
  • 8.15 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted one trainer for 3-day form and one for course 5-year form as follows...

...and with Robert Walford's Amelia's Dance running in one of our 'free' races, it makes sense to look at the 4.35 Wincanton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ Mares' Handicap Hurdle over a right-handed 1m7½f on good to soft ground...

None of these come here off the back of a win, but Lady Adare has won four of five career starts, No No Tonic has won two of her last six and Gentle Connections is four from six.

Gentle Connections, Puffin Bay and Somespring Special all step up one class, whilst Addosh is up two grades from the A/W, having failed to complete her last two over hurdles. Something Special is on handicap debut here, it's a second handicap run for Lady Adare.

Puffin Bay turns out for Harry Derham for the first time since leaving Oliver Sherwood and is also tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Lady Adare runs for the first time since a recent wind operation. All bar Amelia's Dance and Somespring Special have previously won over a similar trip and the three course winners, No No Tonic, Puffin Bay & Petticoat Lucy have all scored over course and distance.

In terms of recent activity, No No Tonic, Amelia's Dance, Somespring Special & Petticoat Lucy have all been out fairly recently (19-39 days), Addosh and Lady Adare have been off for 10/12 weeks respectively, whilst Gentle Connections hasn't raced since late October with Puffin Bay rested since July!

Instant Expert suggests that Lady Adare should enjoy the underfoot conditions, but makes us aware that this field haven't really proven themselves at Class 3...

...whilst place form looks like this...

From the place form, No No Tonic looks a decent proposition to make the frame, but at 16lbs above her last winning mark and 2lbs higher than her recent runner-up finish, she might be weighted out of a win. Gentle Connections' win and place from two Class 3 outings might be the best on offer, so let's have a quick look at how many Class 4 wins the field achieved...

...which again suggests that Lady Adare might well be the one best suited here with both Gentle Connections and Addosh faring well. I know from her run of wins that Lady Adare does like to race strongly up with the pace, but based on this field's most recent efforts, I don't think she'll be afforded an easy lead...

...with No No Tonic, Petticoat Lady, Gentle Connections and Puffin Bay all also liking to be near the head of affairs. Amelia's Dance has raced prominently in her last two and Somespring Special was up with the pace last time out, meaning we could have a bit of a tear-up here with Addosh probably the one sitting out the bunfight and that's probably not the best way to approach a short-distance contest here at Wincanton, if the following rings true...

...and I think I'm probably best sticking with the top half of the pace graphic ie  No No Tonic, Lady Adare, Petticoat Lucy and Gentle Connections.

Summary

Having split the field in half for a four-runner shortlist, let's have a quick look at the quartet...

LADY ADARE won a bumper, a maiden hurdle and two novice hurdles in her first four career starts before finishing 6th of 9, beaten by 26 lengths at Taunton on handicap debut in January. That run was off a mark of 130 and came after a break of 321 days. She's had the benefit of that run, has had a wind op and is rated 3lbs lower, so shouldn't be discounted

NO NO TONIC won here over course and distance (she's 211 over C&D) on Boxing Day and was a runner-up in back to back February outings at Chepstow, before being pulled up at Fakenham last time out. She's a pound lighter here and a return to her favoured track-trip might be all she needs.

GENTLE CONNECTIONS won a 2m5f maiden hurdle at Southwell almost a year ago and follwed that up with a hat-trick of novice hurdle wins in May/June. Two unsuccessful runs since that you could make an excuse for (1 at Gr2 and 1 over three miles!), but now rated at 117, the same as her last win, she has to enter calculations.

PETTICOAT LUCY was the three length winner of a 15-runner course and distance contest here on Boxing Day 2021 on just her second effort over hurdles, but has failed to win since, finishing P84P43, but did go well at Chepstow last time out, when beat 3rd of 12, beaten by less than 4 lengths off a pound heavier than today.

I'm not sure that the above has really clarified things, but it does suggest that we might well have a really competitive affair on our hands. I think any of the four could win and they all have the right pace profile, so I should probably walk away and advise NO BET, but if I was to have or even just advice a bet, I'd consider the market for any possible value and as it looks like this...

Lady Adare 9/4 (Bet365/Hills)
No No Tonic 15/2 (Hills)
Petticoat Lucy 9/1 (Hills)
Gentle Connections (14/1 Bet365)

I'd probably swerve the fav and suggest small stakes E/W bets on any or all of the other three.

Good Luck!

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