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Royal Ascot 2023: Day 4 (Friday) Preview, Tips

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Day four, Friday, at Royal Ascot is the last of our previews this week, and I very much hope you've enjoyed the mix of in-house and guest writers who have covered the action so comprehensively. Do touch on some of the links within the post if you like the way our guests present things - they'll appreciate it.

Right, let's get down to business. Seven more head-scratchers, starting with a proper metaphorical case of nits...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo fillies)

The Albany, as races come to preview, is always a race full of fun and games, mainly due to the lack of form on offer. Most of the runners have either never run, or only run once and won that race!

However, we do have a favourite emerging in Carla’s Way, who ran a blisteringly above par time at Doncaster at the start of the month for Simon and Ed Crisford. The horse is drawn well in stall 2, so she should be able to get to the rail and be prominent from the outset, which is of real value in a race of this kind (best case is to be drawn either low or high, and race prominently).

At the other end of the draw is Soprano for George Boughey and William Buick, out of stall 16 and another who is likely to be close to the pace. Boughey is notably operating at a 30% strike-rate with last time out winners, and it would not surprise me at all to see this one challenge for favouritism on the day. It should be noted that 17 of the last 19 winners were drawn in stall 10 or higher, but the two exceptions were in the last two years! They came from boxes 2 and 4, close to the rail.

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service
A recent run is also a good sign with all bar two winners (going back to the race's inception in 2002) having run within 35 days. Neither Soprano nor Do It With Style fit this stat.

Porta Fortuna looks attractive on paper, the draw from 8 is a bit of a put off as she will race in the middle of the pack, which can be a bit of a graveyard for wins; but the run at Naas was impressive enough and the booking of Frankie Dettori by Donnacha O’Brien cannot be ignored.

Ryan Moore rides Matrika, who will come out of stall 1, and therefore demands closer inspection. Another horse who was successful over Irish Guineas weekend at the Curragh, she ran above par that day and the money has certainly started to come.

Ascot is quite a stiff six furlongs, hence it is interesting to see that 11 of the last 12 winners had run over 6f at some point before their Albany win.

Shortlist:
Carla’s Way 7/2
Porta Fortuna 7/1
Matrika 8/1

 

3.05 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

The newest Group 1 at Royal Ascot and one of the best races of the week: a stallion maker, in fact. The likes of Muhaarar and Caravaggio have already sired Group 1 winners from the three colts with three-year-old crops, and it may be that Advertise joins them before the end of the campaign. So who among this year's cohort might join this illustrious band?

In the absence of Cold Case, a bakers' dozen go to post, headed by last season's champion juvenile Little Big Bear. He patently failed to stay in the 2000 Guineas (though his performance suggested it was more than just stamina that let him down that day), but bounced back over a sprint trip in the G2 Sandy Lane at Haydock last time. While that was a comfortable score, the horse in second there, Shouldvebeenaring, is a 25/1 shot here. You can make the case that the runner up should be shorter in the betting, or that the winner should not be even money here; but it's fairly tricky to argue the market disparity is about right.

Little Big Bear was still about five pounds below his two-year-old peak effort at Haydock and, again, you can argue that he's sitting on a season best or that he's not quite trained on as the horse he was. I don't really have a view on that except that he's evens, which is a price I'd need to be happy about all such questions. I am not.

Sakheer, a son of Zoffany, is second choice, and he too flopped in the 2000 Guineas, though less emphatically than LBB. His Mill Reef juvenile win was impressive, over this three-quarter mile trip, and he can't be discounted for all that we have only the soft ground mile run in 2023 on which to conjecture.

That is the case with Lezoo, too, after she finished eighth in the 1000 Guineas. Her only defeat in five races last year was a half length second to Mawj, subsequently 1000 Guineas winner, and her four wins include one over course and distance and one in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She looks an out and out six-furlong filly, and the fairer sex have won this twice in the eight renewals and hit the frame five more times, at a slightly better rate than the boys. Lezoo is berthed in the highest box so will need to break alertly and straight

Julie Camacho would be relatively unfashionable in the context of Royal Ascot Group 1's, but she knows how to train a sprinter as demonstrated by her expert handling of Judicial. Shaquille looks another in that mould, a prolific scorer in minor Pattern company - including an easy two length Listed score last time - fully deserving of a tilt at the big time. He's one of the front end pace angles, too, and if getting loose in the lead could take some pegging back.

Noble Style was three lengths behind Shaquille last time and has a bit to prove on his two '23 runs. In fairness, he was far from disgraced in the 2000 Guineas but that was a clunk the last day when odds on; first time cheekpieces might elicit a bit more verve: trainer Charlie Appleby has an astonishing - even for him - 40% hit rate when deploying the sheepskins (14/35, +31.04 at SP).

This is a race that has yet to be won by a horse priced bigger than 12/1, and it's very difficult to see that fact not surviving at least one more year.

On balance, Little Big Bear is comfortably the most likely winner but there remain unanswered questions for a horse trading at levels. I may be missing something with Sakheer because I cannot see how he's less than half the price of Lezoo (who is drifting as I write) - the filly's juvenile form is better than the colt's, and their Classic runs were virtual carbon copies of each other's.

It is possible that one or both hasn't trained on, market vibes suggesting Lezoo is the more likely to fall into those nettles. But I'm going to chance her, each way: on form, she's closest to the jolly and she's a comfortable each way price at 9/1, with books paying four places. And I very much respect the 'cheeky Charlie' angle for Noble Style, who is worth a small win single at double figure odds.

 

3.40 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is probably my favourite betting race of the meeting, partly because the market rarely seems to consider the draw bias. Logic would dictate that a lower draw would be better around a bend like this but these big field handicaps are very rough and it seems getting a clear run down the outside is far more important than saving ground by going the shortest route. The PRB3 graph below shows just how crucial the draw can be here.



It’s also worth noting that prominent racers tend to do particularly well, presumably because there is so much trouble in running in these races, that being out of the way of the scrimmaging is a massive advantage.



The above image shows draw and pace bias in combination over this course and distance. The eyecatching overperformance comes from prominent/mid division racers from those drawn middle/high but it also shows the only run style you want to back from a low draw is prominent.

There doesn’t seem to be a great amount of pace on here and the pace seems to be dominated by Godolphin runners so you’d assume those horses won’t cut each others’ throats and harm their respective chances. That might put extra onus on the prominent racers in this.

With that in mind the one who sticks out like a sore thumb is the second favourite, Teumessias Fox. He ran well twice here last year and since being gelded he’s won both his races easily, tracking the pace and cruising clear on both occasions. The handicapper has had his say with a total rise of 16lbs following his last two wins.

He’s earned those rises given how impressive he’s been but there is very little substance to his recent scores, which does concern me. I’m a big fan of ‘hot form’ and those two races look to me like cold form. If his winning distances had been smaller I’d be very much against him; but it’s not his fault they’ve been poor races, and he’s won them both so easily it’s impossible to tell where his ceiling is. The main thing in his favour is he seems to be the perfect horse for this race tactically but is he still adequately handicapped?

Likely to be slightly more patiently ridden, but still within that hot zone of being drawn middle to wide and not ridden too patiently, is the early favourite for this, Al Nafir. Whereas Teumessias Fox’s form is a bit ropey, you can’t really get more solid than Al Nafir’s Old Rowley Cup win. He went up 10lbs for winning that race but the runner up is now 10lbs higher as well, plus the 3rd, 5th, 6th, 9th and 13th all won shortly after.

His overall profile isn’t as sexy as some others, he’s tasted defeat plenty of times, but he seems to have a very specific need for this trip and faster ground and the only time he had that was last season when winning one of the hottest handicaps of the season. This will be his seasonal debut which is a slight concern but Charlie Appleby has had many horses ready first time out this season, for instance King Of Conquest won the Suffolk Stakes off a similar absence in May and it’s likely this has been Al Nafir’s target for some time.

Well fancied 4yos have dominated this race in the past decade so that pair look the most likely winners but I’m reluctant to back Al Nafir at the price because of the absence and I can’t back Teumessias Fox because the races he’s been winning haven’t been strong enough for my liking. With so much else in his favour, I might feel very annoyed if Teumessias Fox is well placed and scoots clear off a no more than even gallop whilst everything else in behind meets trouble in running but so be it.

For various reasons I’m against the majority of the field (Nagano reluctantly because of his absence) but one at a big price I want to have on my side is HMS President. He’s run well in four races here previously without winning and he won a really hot contest last time out at Newmarket. The 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 11th have all come out and won and several that ran well are yet to run again so that race could look even hotter within the next few months. He’s only up 3lbs for that which seems very kind. That race was over a couple of furlongs further, on easier ground, but HMS President is equally effective in these conditions and even ran well here on fast ground over 10f last season so there are no concerns about his speed.


HMS President did win last time out but he’s seemed to shirk it in a finish previously, a trait that has seen him finish 2nd in nine of his 33 runs. I’m happy to back him each way at 25/1 with a few bookies at the time of writing, but I also acknowledge the aforementioned pair are more likely winners and could easily relegate him to 2nd if he does indeed run well. So as well as that each way single I’ll be looking to back both Al Nafir and Teumessias Fox in straight forecasts with HMS President finishing 2nd, just as consolation in case he again finds less than expected in a finish. 

Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits. You can join my private service for just £1 if you click here.Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

 

4.20 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Group 1 Coronation Stakes run over a mile is one of Europe’s premier races for three-year-old fillies. First run in 1840 its been won by some great fillies in recent years including Attraction, Russian Rhythm, Sky Lantern, Winter and Alpha Centauri. The race often brings together the winners of Newmarket’s 1000 Guineas with the French and Irish versions and can be a defining moment in a filly's career.

Just seven have been declared for this year’s race. Sadly, that septet doesn't include 1000 Guineas winner Mawj who misses the race due to coughing. That means we won’t see the much anticipated rematch between Mawj and Tahiyra.

Tahiyra was runner-up at Newmarket and went one place better when running out a decisive winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh. With no Mawj in the line-up, Dermot Weld's entry is likely to go off a very short-priced favourite. She’s got the change of gear that stamps her a high class filly and it would be great to see her put in a performance that shows her to be the best Classic female miler in Europe. Despite being a big fan of Tahiyra, on quick ground I think she could be vulnerable. However, which if any of her six rivals can take advantage?

The reliable Meditate finished runner-up to Tahiyra in the Irish 1000 Guineas as she did in last year’s Moyglare Stakes. Strictly on the formbook she can’t beat the favourite but quick ground does give her a chance of doing so.

Comhra seemingly put in a much improved effort when 1½ lengths 3rd of 10 in Irish 1000 Guineas. The application of the first time cheekpieces probably played their part in that good performance and if they continue to have the desired effect there’s no reason why she won’t be in the shake up.

Sounds Of Heaven improved plenty on her juvenile form when winning a York Listed race last month. She had one of today’s rivals, Queen For You, a short head back in second that day and I think she can confirm placings with that filly. The daughter of Kingman seemingly appreciated the quick ground at York so underfoot conditions should pose no terrors for her. I think she’s an exciting prospect who’s open to plenty of improvement and could be the one to take advantage should the firmer turf prove to be the undoing of the favourite.

Verdict: Tahiyra is the one they all must beat, and she may be good enough to get away with quick ground on this occasion. At the prices, though, I have to take her on. The obvious one is the consistent Meditate who will love the ground and should give her running. If there were three places available, I would be interested in Comhra each way. However, there aren’t, so I’m happy to take a chance on the improving Sounds Of Heaven who can give her trainer Jessica Harrington a third success in the race since 2018.

Suggestion: Sounds Of Heaven – 12/1 general

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

 

5.00 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

It’s highly unlikely lightning will strike twice for me this week in fillies only handicaps but in I dive into what looks another challenging contest, this one for 3YOs only. Yet again I’ll be using my own trends and trainer pointers to help me out.

The trainers…

As this is a race for fillies only, it’s worth recapping some of my musings from Day 2, which did help me land on Villanova Queen, having unearthed Jessica Harrington’s fine record with the girls at this meeting. She’s now 4/14,6p with Royal Ascot Fillies and runs Foniska in this contest. She couldn’t, could she?

As per my preview on Day 2, John/Thady Gosden and Simon/Ed Crisford all have decent records with their fillies and are represented here also with four runners between them. As do Roger/Harry Charlton, they have a reserve here, so require a couple to withdraw in order to get a run. Roger Varian has a few runners also, and he operates at a greater than 15% win SR with his fillies.

Looking more closely in this race and trainers’ records with 3YO Fillies, the majority have a solid enough record, all bar four trainers with a greater than 10% win SR with such types. Roger Varian, William Haggas, John Gosden, Charlie Appleby all have between 17% and 19.5% win SR with their 3YO fillies and could be a group to focus on more generally with such types, and maybe in this race. I’d advise against backing them all though as you’d quickly burn through your betting bank.

One other trainer I’ll flag is Owen Burrows… it could be worth noting that at Ascot (all meetings), in handicaps, straight course only, he’s now 15 bets / 4 wins / 6p / 26% wsr / +10 Betfair SP. With those sent off 10/1 or shorter, 4/10, 6p. He runs Embrace in this, who ran in the 1000 Guineas when last seen. The yard are flying, 3/7, 5p in last 14 days, 78% rivals beaten. This filly also makes handicap debut, and Burrows is 5/19, 8p +3 SP with such types in the last 2 years, another stat worth noting. He operates at a 26% win SR with all his handicappers, which is a bit mad really, he knows the time of day and is worth keeping onside more generally.

Whatever my pokes do in this race, hopefully some those stats are of use moving forwards.

Those yards represented who look in particularly fine fettle include…Charlie Appleby, Aidan O’Brien, Ed Dunlop, Jessie Harrington, Owen Burrows and John/Thady Gosden.

Turning our attention to the ‘trainer race records’ – those trainers to have won the race previously in the last 15 renewals, represented this year…

  • Coppice / Marksman Queen / Bridestones (John/Thady Gosden)
  • Clounmacon (Johnny Murtagh)
  • Magical Sunset / Rich (Richard Hannon)

As always, those runners are worth a closer look.

 

The trends…

The trends for this are not as ‘strong’ as some of the other races this week, but a profile of having placed at least once in the last two starts, having placed once or twice this season and having had 2+ runs this season would have found 12 of the previous 15 winners (12/131 qualifiers, 33 places, just +12 Betfair SP) although this profile was 0/13 last year… however, if it bounces back, we’d be looking at a long list of eight in which we could focus…

Coppice, Jackie Oh, Marksman Queen, Choisya, Clounmacon, Orchid Bloom, Novus, Balalaika

 

Winning on seasonal return isn’t impossible in this, Roger Varian’s Cell Sa Beela the only one trying to do so this year.

William Haggas (0/15, 2p) and Aidan O’Brien (0/9, 2p) haven’t hit the board in this race in the period, which could pose a question for trends qualifiers Jackie Oh and Orchid Bloom, although given the yards, maybe just a matter of time.

 

To the horses…

To my eyes this race is towards the ‘nearly impossible’ end of the Royal Ascot puzzle scale and I’ve banked on my trends helping me out. Unexposed 3YO fillies, most in form, some having been highly tried, others more battle hardened in handicaps. Some of these will relish a strong pace and take big steps forward. The ground could also be plenty fast enough, which is an unknown for a fair few.

I will just mention the pace/race set up… almost all the sustained pace looks to be drawn middle to high, with Mrs Harrington’s Foniska the only pace setter low – she could get free on the front end, dropped in trip, with fast ground an unknown and is no forlorn hope to make all.

But, those drawn in the lower third or so could have their work cut out, unless there’s a track bias and low just rides quicker come Friday. I’ve ended up with three horses drawn 18+, so we’ll see if I’m on the right side…

Jackie Oh – 7s – one for Aidan O’Brien who’s yet to win this but does have a couple of placed efforts to his name. She hits my trends and I was impressed with her Irish 1000 Guineas effort, not far off them 2f out and not exactly stopping come the line when others went forward. The front two in that are classy and this is quite the drop in class. Ryan can ride a patient race drawn high and there’s a chance she gallops all over these, able to cruise along at a higher speed than a fair few in here. Fillies under big weights have won this and she could outclass them for her red hot connections. Her half-sister won this in 2020 also.

Novus – 16/1 - 25/1 – the first of two bigger priced EW pokes. Gary Moore is in fine form, as is his filly, who could well relish this step up to a mile, given there’s stamina galore on the dam side. She certainly wasn’t stopping at Goodwood when bolting up, in a race working out well. She brings a touch of ‘handicap hardiness’ to the party which could be a positive, and she looks to be drawn in the right place and has Andrea Atzeni to help her. She’s got a low weight and just looks overpriced. I suppose fast ground is a question, given her recent form on softer, but it’s more of an unknown and she ran well on Good to Firm over 5f on debut. So, here’s hoping. But at the odds, worth an interest EW wager.

Balalaika – 50/1 - 66/1 – she may be nowhere good enough here but Hayley Turner has won this twice in the last four years and it could be significant that she’s been booked. The horse arrives in form and drops back slightly in trip from Hamilton’s stiff 9f, which looked to stretch her a tad. That was a Sunday Series handicap and they’re competitive affairs which should stand her in good stead here. She can take a pull and they were aggressive with her there. She’s the sort who may well appreciate being buried off a relentless gallop and these are the conditions that can transform horses like this, leaving behind previous form. She hits my trends, Rebecca Menzies is a very good dual-purpose trainer and I’ll trust in Hayley to sneak her into 5th or 6th, which would be a decent result. And you never know!

 It’s likely I haven’t mentioned the winner of course but I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and my other previews. You can read similar musings by joining my FREE Newsletter at the link below…

Click here to join Josh's RTP newsletter

 

5.35 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Sandwiched in the middle of the Derby and Irish Derby, the 'Ascot Derby' is usually a poor shadow of either of those Group 1's, and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time. We have therefore to be content with the also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some place money.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race where they finished top 4 (unless it was the Derby). Interestingly, 12 of the last 16 winners had yet to win a Group race.

This year we have the Derby runner-up making an appearance which brings a bit of class to proceedings. The last time the Derby second turned up was in 2010 when At First Sight finished 4th here having chased home Workforce at 100/1 on his previous start. King Of Steel ran a remarkable race considering it was his seasonal debut and he only gave way in the last half furlong with the front two pulling four lengths clear of the remainder. He is a worthy favourite.

We also have the 7th, 9th and 10th lining up to give the race a Derby Consolation look about it.

It is worth noting that only six winners of the King Edward had their last run at Epsom since 1997 but four of those have come in the last six years and four of the six runners in this years field did contest the Derby. Those six winners in total had finished 3rd, 5th (twice) and 10th (three times). Bizarrely, simply backing the 10th home in the Derby when he shows up here would have given you results of 1-3-1-1-5 and a LSP of +12.25pts. That weird and completely accidental stat would point to the chances of Arrest who was sent off favourite at Epsom but seemed to lose his chance before the race had even been run having boiled over before the start.

The two that didn't run at Epsom are Relentless Voyager, who was third in the Italian Derby last time out, and Continuous, who had run third in the Dante but was only 8th in the French Derby. He'll be looking to bounce back from that run with the form of his York run giving him every chance. He's definitely the pick of the pair who side-stepped Epsom and can't be discounted given his illustrious connections (won the race last year with the Derby 5th).

With that emerging trend for trainers to target the race with an also ran from the Derby, usually with those that had failed to handle the course or had an excuse for a poor run at Epsom, I'm going to side with the beaten favourite from the Derby to continue that fine run of horses finishing down the Blue Riband field before running well here.

SELECTION: ARREST (WIN) at 3/1 general

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

 

6.10 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

There’s been some burn-ups over the years at Royal Ascot but I can’t remember the last time I saw one as loaded with pace as this is. 

Using Geegeez pace map it points to no fewer than a potential TWELVE front-runners if you look at the run styles from their last two runs, and that increases to 16 if you make it three runs. The potential for the pace to unravel in the last half-furlong is there for all to see and although I’ll be the first to say that hasn’t happened a lot this week as yet, we’re barely halfway as I write this and the ground is expected to continue to quicken up as the meeting goes on. 

 

 

So the way I’m looking at this at the moment is one that is very much an ar*e-covering exercise. I’ll chance my arm with something that might get clear and not come back, along with a couple that are likely to come from off the pace and weave through late, always an exciting watch at Ascot. 

Mick Appleby went quite close to winning this race with Fantasy Master back in 2021 and he’s got one of the fastest in the field in Michaela’s Boy, who now finds himself back in handicap company after good efforts in the 3yo Championships at Newcastle, where he again found 6f too far, and in the Listed Westow Stakes at York on his latest start where he had little chance on the figures but outran them to finish third. Freddie Larson has been unable to claim his 3lb on either of those starts but can do so here, so he takes off most of the 4lb he was raised for York. His early gate speed could take him clear of these and it’ll then be a matter of hanging on in the last 200yds. 

The other three I think are worth a mention are all “first-timers” of one description or another. 

In the case of Walbank, it’s a first start for Dominic Ffrench-Davis, with Amo Racing shuffling the pack as they do every now and then. Previously with David Loughnane, he went off favourite for the Norfolk last year and only found The Ridler too good. He lost little in defeat in the Molecomb but wasn’t seen after that until a below-par effort in the Westow, finishing well behind Michaela’s Boy. Ffrench-Davis doesn’t get too many first-time winners with other's castoffs though it’s interesting to note Maxi King won first time for him after leaving Loughnane earlier this year, so it can be done. The addition of blinkers might spark him back into life. 

Sweet Harmony looks one of those that will be held up off the pace to come through late, having form over both 6f and 7f, and there is the chance they’ll simply go too quickly for her. Having said that, she had the speed to lead over 6f at Haydock and looked worth a try at 5f on that running, finishing fourth to Get Ahead - just touched off in Group 2 company at Chantilly on her next start - after weakening late. Had she been equipped with blinkers she’d have been even more interesting, as trainer Richard Spencer has a very good record when applying such headgear first time, but she’s still of some interest with the cheekpieces today. 

A final swing will be Brave Nation, who looked a speedy 2yo last year, winning on debut and then finishing fourth in the Norfolk. Things unravelled rather quickly after that and in four starts since he’s only beaten two horses home. However, there was just a glimmer that all isn’t totally lost at Newmarket last time, as he travelled into the race nicely enough before finishing weakly again; hopes now rest on him being gelded since that effort. According to the H/S1 report, Michael Bell is 5-25 with first time gelded runners in the last two years (for a small profit to level stakes) and if it does turn him around you’ve a well-handicapped horse, being some 11lb lower than this time last year. There’s all sorts of risks attached, of course, but at 66-1 you don’t have to pay much to find out what, if any, ability remains. 

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And that, dear reader, is that. 28 races covered by seven writers, five of them guests, across four days; and a great couple of winners already in their midst. Thank you for making geegeez.co.uk a part of your Royal Ascot 2023 experience and, if you like what we do and are not yet a member of our multi-award winning* Gold racecards and form tools service, you can take it for a spin for as little as £1 at this link.

Matt

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Royal Ascot 2023: Day 3 (Thursday) Preview, Tips

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To the middle day of five, and the feature race of the entire week, the Gold Cup. Run over two and a half miles, and evoking recent memories of both Frankie Dettori and Stradivarius, but perhaps more poignantly of Her late Majesty The Queen and Estimate's win a decade ago. The Queen's enthusiasm and social mandate for the sport is irreplaceable, and it is to be cherished that King Charles - and perhaps especially Queen Consort Camilla - are sprinkling some of their patronage across a meeting so fondly enjoyed by the former sovereign.

Let's get to the sport: Thursday's septet of sizzlers tees off at two-thirty with the...

 

2.30 Norfolk Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service

A favourite has not won the Norfolk in the last 12 renewals; however it is not quite as open as you may first perceive, with 8 of the last 12 winners coming from the 2nd and 3rd favourite spots, respectively.

Unlike many races at the Royal meeting prior course form is not required with none of the last 12 winners having won at Ascot, but a win somewhere looks to be a must: 12/12 winners having had a previous run, and 11/12 having had at least one win in the build up to the race.

The question therefore is will Elite Status be the trend-destroyer? He was impressive on second start at Sandown, running a time way above par at the course and winning by an impressive five lengths. Surely if any horse is going to turn the grim record for favourites around, he is.

Noche Magica was beaten by Givemethebeatboys at the Curragh, that one running well in defeat on Tuesday in the Coventry Stakes. Noche Magica should improve for the surface and is dropped back to 5f, having won over that trip at Cork on debut. The 15/2 available at the moment looks more than fair, and it is of some note that the price is shortening. It is also very much worth mentioning that, from a small sample size, trainer, Paddy Twomey has his horses flying in the last 14 days.

A race where it typically pays to be up with the pace, the Wesley Ward talking horse, American Rascal, is likely to give them all something to aim at. Ward is quoted as saying, “he really is something” and, being the first foal of Lady Aurelia, herself a two-time winner here, in fantastic style in 2016 and 2017, out of the Breeders' Cup Classic winner Curlin, he could well be. If you are backing the Ward horse however, you are doing so out of the talk and hype largely and maybe, just maybe, that's enough!

Another horse, shortening as I write, is His Majesty for Ryan Moore and AP O'Brien, 10s in most places. A drop back to 5f will suit and he will be expected to improve for the surface, having won in Listed company at the Curragh on debut. It can pay to be drawn high and held-up in this race, and His Majesty will definitely make the short list.

Outside of those mentioned, nothing else leaps out of real interest. Elite Status looks to be the horse to break the trends and justify favouritism, but I will focus my attention on Noche Magica and His Majesty, the latter being one the market has caught on to.

Shortlist:
His Majesty 10/1
Noche Magica 13/2

 

3.05 King George V Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

25 of the last 26 winners finished top 3 last time out which is quite remarkable for such a competitive handicap while all of the last 13 winners finished top 2. Since 1997 there have been 22 winners to have won at least one of their last two starts with all four exceptions being maidens coming into this race.

All of the 13 winners since 2010 were rated 85-95. If we forget 2020 (the year of covid and a delayed start to the flat) we can also see that all of the last 13 winners had raced within the previous 40 days and had run at least twice that flat season.

Since 2007, all 32 horses to have raced in a maiden last time out have been beaten as have all 21 runners dropping down in trip compared to their last run. All 19 horses to have had their last run in a Group race this century have been beaten (Listed race runners are 1 win from 30 runners) while all five horses to race in a class 5 handicap last time have finished unplaced. Only two winners this century (2009 and 2012) had run more than seven times in their career up to this point with those two winners coming from the 59 horses with eight or more career starts.

Last year's winner, Secret State, was the first winner to carry more than 9-03 to victory since 2001. There had been 49 horses carrying 9-04 or more between those two winners.

John Gosden won this race in 1997 but has seen all 22 runners since then beaten with just four making the frame. His losers include 11 last time out winners, 20 that finished in the top four last time out and ten at under 8/1 including three favourites. He runs three this year with Burglar the mount of Frankie Dettori and the shortest price of the trio. He's won two of his three starts, both novice events either side of a defeat at odds on but the form from all three of those races looks poor with not a single winner coming from the 19 horses he's beaten.

Mark Johnston loved to have runners in this race and he won it five times between 2002 and 2018. He also had seven placed runners including the 3rd in 2020 and the 4th in 2019 from a total of 64 runners in the race. All five of his winners had run at least four times in their career, were rated 85+ and finished first or second last time out. Backing these Johnston types that were 12/1 or shorter would have given you the following results: 113014041017000 That's five winners and three places from 15 runners for a profit of +34.5pts. Son Charlie will be looking to restore the stable's great previous record in the race with Struth, who looks to fit the bill best of their two entries.

Another trainer looking to turn back the clock to former glories in this race is Sir Michael Stoute who won the King George V four times between 1998 and 2008 but has seen all 12 of his runners since get beaten (three placed). He's decided against running Nader King, despite having him jocked up earlier in the week, and that's thrown me a little as I had him down as my best handicap bet of the meeting. Back to the drawing board for me but that's probably a good sign to the chances of Perfuse who is now the only runner from the stable's three original entries.

I'm going to look away from the big name yards, though, to back a couple of outsiders. The first is DOUBLE MARCH who is one of only four runners to pass all the trends. He won at the course last time out in a race that has worked out very well with the 5th, 6th and 7th all winning since and both of the other two horses to have run since finishing second. In fact, in all of the races he's ever contested, there have been multiple subsequent race winners behind him including the Southwell maiden he won at the end of last season which has seen the runner up win his first two starts this season (now rated 91), the fourth win a maiden next time out at 28/1 (now rated 92) and the 5th win a novice event on his next start. Even the 9th home, beaten 12 lengths, is two from two this season and now rated 80. At Ascot last time Double March stayed on well to go clear in the final furlong before being eased close home and looking well worth a try at this longer trip. Up 7lb to 87 for that win I still think he's ahead of the handicapper and I fancy him to outrun his odds.

My other selection doesn't quite fit the trends but comes from the Hughie Morrison stable whose runners since 2010 have finished 35522. His runner this year, MR MISTOFFELEES is therefore greatly respected especially as he has been dropped a pound since his last run in the London Gold Cup handicap, a race that always provides lots of winners through the season. Plenty of subsequent winners have come out of the novice event he won at Kempton last December and he was only six lengths off Dante winner The Foxes in the Craven on his seasonal debut where subsequent easy winner Mostabshir was only a nose in front of him. We'll take as many places as we can and back him each way.

SELECTIONS: DOUBLE MARCH EW 25/1 / MISTER MISTOFFELEES EW 33/1 (6 PLACES)

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

 

3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

The Ascot Oaks as almost literally nobody calls the Ribblesdale has attracted a bumper field of 19 this year. That is the biggest since at least 1988, and the implication is that there's no standout contender. The betting suggests otherwise, however, with the undefeated-in-two Al Asifah a shade of odds on despite the massed ranks in opposition.

You'd be forgiven for asking, "Who?", because Al Asifah, trained by the Gosdens and ridden by Jim Crowley, only made her debut four weeks ago, in a Haydock maiden. She won by half the track, or just shy of five lengths to be more scientific, and then dished up in a Listed contest, again over ten furlongs, at Goodwood. The margin that day was six and a half lengths and she's clearly 'could be anything' material. Regardless of what she could be, she already is seven pounds clear of her nearest rivals on RPR's and, naturally after just the two appearances, retains a bundle of upside.

So what are the negatives? Well, one is inexperience and two is the chance of a troubled passage in such a congested field: she was held up on debut and raced mid-division last time out, but those were six- and seven-runner races respectively. It's one of the quirks of Ascot that a high draw over a mile and a half is actually a positive, which is counter-intuitive but well supported by any of win or place strike rate, or percentage of rivals beaten as the image below attests. Actually, it may be more accurate to say that low is inconvenienced because middle draws have done just fine, too. Al Asifah has stall 13.

She is also stepping up in trip and, though she's by Frankel, her dam was a miler though with stouter-staying horses close up in the pedigree: she's likely, but not certain, to stay on breeding for all that her visual impression was that she'll relish the extra quarter mile. The fact that the Gosdens have won four of the last six renewals of the Ribblesdale is another string to the bow of her chance.

 

 

But there are plenty of unexposed ascendant types bidding to topple her, led by Infinite Cosmos, Bluestocking and Warm Heart. The first named was only third to the Gosdens' Soul Sister in the Musidora, an Oaks trial, at York; but she had an unorthodox journey that day, missing the kick then pushed into the lead before fading from a furlong out. She may again be handy granted a level beginning but I'd expect a slightly more patient ride than bidding to make all. She is very much bred for this range, and beyond.

Bluestocking represents the Ralph Beckett Midas Touch with fillies; a dual Oaks-winning trainer, he's the only handler apart from Gosden and Aidan O'Brien to win the fillies' Epsom Classic since 2012! Bluestocking was a head behind Warm Heart when they met in the Listed Fillies' Trial at Newbury (10f, good) last time and was closing all the way to the line. Her pedigree doesn't scream middle distances but she'll get help from Frankie, who takes over from Rossa Ryan, in the saddle.

Ryan Moore partnered Warm Heart at Newbury and stays on board here. She's a typically well-bred Galileo filly, out of a mare who won three G1 sprints in Australia. Not necessarily a natural for twelve furlongs, then, and she was all out at the line over a quarter mile shorter last time; but she'd won over the same ten furlong trip on soft to heavy the time before and may see the longer yardage out.

One definitely bred for the gig is Maman Joon, by Sea The Stars out of a Norse Dancer mare. Her siblings include Candleford, a mile and a half winner at Royal Ascot last year, and Atty Persse, also a mile and a half winner at Royal Ascot, in 2017. Maman Joon is a two-race maiden, but the more recent of that brace was when fourth in the Oaks last time out. She's drawn wide in 15 and can improve enough to hit the frame with a reasonable conveyance through the race.

From France, Crown Princesse, trained by Fabrice Chappet, is an interesting contender: she has raced only on all-weather and very soft turf to date but the last of her four races - when a close third in the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary over ten furlongs, puts her in the mix. The fact she's travelled implies no going concerns, and she's the sort to have a strong turn of foot as can be seen from the sectionals at Parislongchamp:

 

She may need more luck in the run than many from stall five, but if the gaps open she is expected to finish well.

Of the massive outsiders, perhaps Understated's case may be exactly that: she's yet to finish outside the first two in three starts, and looked to struggle with the track at Goodwood when second in a Listed race there last time (good, 10f). Back on a more conventional circuit, and emerging from a middle draw, she's expected to race handily and is bred to stay well.

In summary, this is all about Al Asifah, who will very likely win if getting a clean run. That 'if' makes odds on unattractive, and I'd rather risk a cup of tea win and sticky bun place about the chance of something at a price. In that context, 22/1 Maman Joon is the unfortunate to be encumbered by my wild speculation.

 

4.20 Gold Cup (2m4f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Gold Cup, run over 2m 4f, is one of the world’s most prestigious flat races, which has a long history dating back to 1807 and is arguably the highlight of Royal Ascot. The race attracts some of the best stayers in training, with notable winners including Yeats, who won the race four consecutive times from 2006 to 2009, and Stradivarius, who matched that feat between 2018 and 2021. In 2013 it was the late Queen’s mare Estimate who came out on top on a memorable day for the sport.

This year’s line-up doesn’t include a Yeats or Stradivarius. That said, fourteen have been declared for one of the trickiest renewals I can remember. I’m not really a trends player but I have noticed that four-year-old’s have a good recent record providing eight of the last 15 winners of the race. It’s also not really been a race for a shock winner with just one winner from 102 runners (-81, 9 placed) being returned 14/1 or bigger since 2008.

The bookies were going 10/3 the field on Wednesday morning with recent course winner Coltrane and last year’s St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov vying for favouritism.

Given that not many horses in the modern era stay a truly run 2m 4f it’s a bonus for supporters of Coltrane that the six-year-old is proven over course and distance having won the Ascot Stakes 12 months ago. He’s suited by a sound surface and won’t be far away. 

Eldar Eldarov was a good ½ length 2nd of 6 in Yorkshire Cup on his seasonal return. Has the class to win this and was doing his best work at the finish at York; he could well stay and may even improve for the step up to 2m 4f.  Trainer Roger Varian’s horses are going well so far this week.

Broome was a length further back in third in the Yorkshire Cup. I had fancied him for this after his win in the Dubai Gold Cup (2m) at Meydan, but Ryan Moore seems to prefer stablemate Emily Dickinson. She won a Listed race at Navan (1m6f) on her seasonal return but disappointed at Leopardstown last month. She has looked a thorough stayer, but it may depend what sort of mood she’s in: on a going day she’s a major contender. You have to respect Ryan’s choice, but Broome is a confirmed stayer and I think he’s overpriced. 

Subjectivist won the 2021 renewal but has only had two starts since suffering a serious tendon injury. He looked to have retained plenty of his old ability when a five-length 3rd of 15 to Broome at Meydan last time and, if he was back to his 2021 best, he would have an obvious chance. 

Courage Mon Ami made it a perfect three from three when winning a Goodwood handicap (1m 6f) on his appearance 26 days ago. On the evidence of his Goodwood success, he should stay 2m but whether he’ll stay 2m 4f is a an unknown, but looks worth a try. This is a huge step up in class.

Yibir was returning from a ten-month layoff when a respectable two length 4th of seven to Haskoy in Aston Park Stakes at Newbury last time. He shaped like the run was needed there and wants further than 1m4f these days. It is unclear if he will stay this marathon trip but he has the class to go close if he does.

Echoes In Rain is a smart hurdler who won a mares' Grade 1 hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last time. The seven-year-old showed she stays two miles on the flat when a neck 2nd of 30 to Waterville in the Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh last September and, while she has plenty to find on Official Ratings, she’s trained by Willie Mullins so you can’t totally dismiss her.

Trueshan looks on the downgrade, and usually only runs with soft in the description; but he’s had wind surgery since finishing a seven length 4th of six to Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes here last month.

Verdict: Coltrane and Eldar Eldarov are worthy market leaders and of the pair I prefer the claims of the latter. If 2021 winner Subjectivist was back to his best, then he would be tough to beat. Courage Mon Ami is open to any amount of progress but we must take a chance on his stamina as well as his class. BROOME might be overpriced due to Ryan Moore opting for stablemate Emily Dickinson and he’s my pick at double figure odds. 

Broome – 12/1 general

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

 

5.00 Britannia Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

Ah, The Britannia Stakes… 33 unexposed 3 Year Olds, all still open to improvement run to run. Some will relish the occasion and relentless gallop we could see here, many will not. Nearly half the field won on their last start and you won’t be shocked to hear I’m relying on some help from my trends and trainer pointers…

 

The trends…

15/424, 60p (total winners, runners, placed horses)

  • 15/15 were top 2 at least once last three starts (were not: 067,4p)
  • 15/15 0-3 runs this season (4+ : 0/42, 2p)
  • 15/15 won by trainers with 1 or 2 runners in race (3+ : 0/71, 11p)
  • 14/15 had run over no further than 8.5f in career (had: 1/85, 10p)
  • 14/15 had not run at Ascot previously (had: 1/86, 8p)
  • 14/15 had won at least once last three starts (had not: 1/127, 13p)
  • 14/15 Top 5 last start (6th or lower: 1/98, 8p)
  • 14/15 did not run in a C1 race last start (did: 1/64, 6p)

 

Applying those pointers would have found 11 of the previous 15 winners (11/128 runners, 32p, +127 Betfair SP), although was 0/11 last year – that’s how it can go with this approach. If these trends bounce back this year, we’re looking at a long list of eight…

Quantum Impact, New Endeavour, Good Karma, Fort Vega, Naxos, Royal Cape, Highbank, Thunder Ball

 

The odds have been some guide in this, those sent off bigger than 28/1 SP 0/185,13p in the period. That could be something to keep an eye on.

An official rating of OR87-96 has been a sweet spot (excludes the top six in the weights this year) as has six or fewer career starts. Applying those pointers would leave five…

Quantum Impact, Good Karma, Fort Vega, Naxos, Royal Cape

 

The trainers…

Those to have won the race in the last fifteen renewals, with runners this year, are…

  • Quantum Impact (R Beckett)
  • New Endeavour (R Varian)
  • Royal Cape (H Morrison)
  • Carracci (A P O’Brien)

Of those trainers with runners in the race who look in particularly good form in the previous 14 days… Aidan O’Brien (6/19,11p, 75% RB - rivals beaten), Charlie Appleby (5/15,7p, 75% RB), Charlie Johnston (19/73, 31p, 57% RB), Jessie Harrington (6/25,10p, 62% RB), Dominic Ffrench Davis (3/9,3p, 57% RB)

That’s not to say other trainers are out of form of course, just those five yards are going particularly well.

In the last fifteen renewals this isn’t a race where the likes of Charlie Appleby (0/10,1p), Richard Hannon (0/20,2p) or John Gosden (0/25,5p)  have done overly well. Charlie Johnston has officially taken over the license from his dad Mark, and played an active role in recent years; but it isn’t a race they’ve done that well in either, now 0/34,3p. Maybe Charlie will have more luck under his own name. Of course, racing here is ultra-competitive and maybe one of those will get on the board this year, with nine runners between them.

 

To the horses…

In a race packed with unexposed 3YOs, including fifteeen last time out winners, I’ve stuck to my trends and trainer pointers and hope they work again. They may well do of course, and I’ve still picked the wrong ones from the long-list but my three against the field…

Quantum Impact – SP – the bookies are not taking many chances with Frankie’s rides this week but a few of his have drifted out nearer the off and it could be worth taking a chance on SP, if you don’t have ‘best odds guaranteed’. 6s could be getting on the short side in a race of this nature but the horse hits my profile and Ralph knows what’s required to win this race. Frankie is good friends with the owners and it will be significant he’s on.  He’s 8/21,12p +12 SP when riding for Ralph in the last year. There appears an even spread of pace on paper and it awaits to be seen if it’s best to be high or low. Hopefully there isn’t a track bias. The horse knows how to win and improved again stepped up to 1m on his last start. The 3rd there won a Class 2 on his next start so there’s substance to the form.

Royal Cape – 20/1 – another drawn low. Tom Marquand does well when riding for Hughie Morrison, 3/14,5p +18 SP in the last year, and the trainer knows what’s required around here. This horse was a bit keen at Haydock, got shuffled back and wasn’t in the best position when the tempo lifted. He ran on well under gentle encouragement, on ground he may have found plenty quick enough. The winner that day is fancied for the Group 3 Jersey Stakes on Saturday. He could well enjoy this sort of race set up, if patiently ridden and if settling early. Hopefully the occasion doesn’t get to him but he’s a big price for some fun interest.

Fort Vega – 22/1 – I thought it best to have one drawn high onside also, with pace that side also. Connections were thinking about the Irish 2000 Guineas and The Jersey Stakes for this horse, which suggests they think plenty of him and if they’re correct, he should be leaving behind a mark of OR89 in handicaps at some stage. Such Group level thinking may be fanciful but he’s got a progressive profile having won narrowly the last twice. He’s a powerful mover which should help in this sort of race and a more patient ride could also aid him, having hit the front plenty soon enough last time, but showing a great attitude to hold on. The third that day won his next start, adding some substance to the form. He’s a likeable horse who can hopefully outrun his odds, in another very tricky looking contest.

*Keep in mind almost all bookmakers are paying 1/4 1-2-3-4 in this race, with all profits on the race going to charity.

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5.35 Hampton Court Stakes (1m2f, Group 3, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

Another race where, in recent times, you’ve not had to delve too deeply to find the winner, although Claymore’s upsetting of the applecart last year, defeating the long odds-on Reach For The Moon in a small field, bucked the trend a little. There will be no such odds-on poke this year and it looks a much more competitive event, with a few with recent solid form taking on horses with a little to find on the figures, but for whom improvement may well be forthcoming. It makes for interesting punting. 

We’ll start with the form horses and on that score Caernarfon comes out as well as anything. I had her pegged as a soft ground horse but she showed that thinking all wrong with her third in the Oaks, where she improved enormously. She arguably shaped like the second-best horse in the race and was only run out of the silver very late on after trying to chase the winner down; and, for all that was a big step up in trip, I don’t see a drop back to ten furlongs here being a problem. She gets a useful 3lb fillies' sex allowance, and stall 10 is no disadvantage - the last time we had a 16-runner Hampton Court, the winner and second both came from double-figure draws. She holds strong claims and heads up my shortlist. 

Waipuro’s sixth in the Derby was a solid effort and afterwards trainer Ed Walker thought he didn’t stay and that a drop back to 10f would suit; but he had a pretty hard race there and might have left his effort for this behind. I like the horse and am happy to be proved wrong but I feel it may be another day for him. 

Frankie rides Epictetus for the Gosdens and he too has form in the bank, but their other runner, Torito, ridden by Benoit de la Sayette, holds better claims from my perspective. This fast-improving colt won the Lester Piggott Handicap at Epsom with a bit left in the tank, where runner-up Silver Sword had impressed me when scoring easily at Southwell the time before, so I rate the form strongly. He has a turn of foot, never a bad thing when Ascot is concerned, and looks smart. He’s second on my shortlist and will be in my placepots, too. 

If there’s one at a big price - and I can’t resist a big price, you all know that - Oviedo fits the bill nicely. Having had six starts already he’ll be ignored by most punters but I can put the line straight through two of those as they were on soft/heavy ground, which I don’t think he wants. Concentrate purely on his good and good to firm ground form and things look a bit brighter. He won his maiden at Doncaster in eyecatching fashion (the pair behind both next-time winners) before being thrown in against Chaldean in the Acomb, again shaping very well for third. He didn’t encounter good ground again until last time out at Redcar where, stepping up to a mile and a quarter, he easily took care of City Streak, himself a ready Chester winner the time before. That form leaves him short by a few pounds but a 40-1 price tag makes up for that, as does his wide draw in 16 which could be ideal for one that will be ridden prominently. Extra places are on offer and I won’t be able to resist a couple of quid each-way. 

 

6.10 Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

It was great to see this race return in 2020 after it was replaced on the card for five years and, it has to be said, this year’s renewal looks as difficult as ever! On Tuesday the rain not only had an effect on the ground but also seemingly on the draw. Prior to the morning downpour it was the stands’ side that had the highest going stick (higher means faster ground) but after the rain fell the far side had the highest reading. The action developed far side to middle in the straight course races so at the time of writing a lowish draw does seem to be preferred.

Wednesday’s racing will tell us more, especially the Queen Mary Stakes and the Royal Hunt Cup which are the biggest field straight course races on day two. It’s worth noting that the near side is yet to be explored and, according to Tuesday’s going stick readings, the near side was faster than the middle so you may wish to hold your bets until those races have been run in order to gain more evidence.

Pace will also play its part in determining where the best part of the course will be and the pace map, as usual, makes interesting reading.



It looks like all the pace is together in the centre stalls so they may end up coming up the middle in an arrowhead formation rather than splitting into multiple groups.

The market is heavily leaning towards the more unexposed runners and it’s easy to understand why. Of those at shorter prices I’d probably want to be against Biggles and Baradar (ground, assuming they don’t get thunderstorms on Thursday) and also Croupier (trip) whilst I think Unforgotten could land a race of this nature but he’s short enough all things considered now that he’s favourite.

Kingdom Come is closely matched with Unforgotten on their most recent outing and I think over this shorter trip Kingdom Come will reverse form with that rival, so I much prefer him at the prices given some bookies have Unforgotten at less than half the odds.

Northern Express is another one near the head of the betting that I quite like. This looks the ideal race for a smooth traveller like him and he was unlucky to be beaten by Croupier last time out at York so Northern Express should be the shorter of the pair here. Michael Dods’ runner looks an improved performer again this year and he ran an excellent 4th in the International Stakes 11 months ago off a 5lb lower mark.

There is no standout bet for me in this and to get involved in a race where half the field have valid claims I really want some big prices on my side.

There are several things NOT to like about Spirit Of The Light in this race. He’s well exposed, he has a poor win record for a horse of his quality and he ran very poorly in not one, but two course and distance races last season which is a big red flag. However, so many of his runs this season give him claims here. He ran some excellent races at Meydan in the early part of the year and then continued that form back here. His 2nd at Musselburgh in April on ground that was softer than ideal was brilliant form given the 4th and 5th have won since and the 1st, 3rd and 6th have also gone close. He holds Northern Express on that form.

He followed that up with an excellent 3rd at Newmarket where he finished on the heels of the subsequent 1st and 3rd in the Victoria Cup. On his most recent start he found 6f at York too sharp but he was making up eyecatching ground after meeting trouble in running and he again shaped extremely well. His price ranges from 14/1 to 25/1 at the time of writing and I’d be inclined to back him win only given he’s drawn very high, which could be a negative. Those poor course runs are also a factor in suggesting he shouldn’t be a place bet.

I’m even more keen on Accidental Agent, though, who is pretty much the outsider of the field at 50/1. The 2018 Queen Anne stakes winner is clearly on the decline but his rating may have declined more than his ability at this stage. He’s run some of his best races at Ascot and Newmarket: those venues have been the scene of his last five successes on turf. He looks to be at his best on straight courses and on decent ground, he’s won five from 22 on straight courses on good or better ground which is a fine record given he’s been highly tried in his time.

On last season’s form he has a decent chance in this. He was beaten 3½ lengths and 2½ lengths in similar course and distance handicaps last season off marks of 112 and 109 respectively and he’s now down to a mark of 101. He’s 16lbs better off with Northern Express for a 2¼ length beating in the International Stakes so has clear claims of finishing ahead of him. Even on his seasonal debut spin this year at Newmarket, on good ground off a 3lb higher mark, he has a decent chance given he wasn’t beaten far after being held up off one of the steadiest gallops you’ll ever see. Stall 8 might be just about perfect for him and he should be seen to best effect here on what will hopefully be decent ground.

So, to summarise, I’m looking to have an each way wager on Accidental Agent at around 50/1 and a smaller win only bet on Spirit Of Light at 20/1.

Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits. You can join my private service for just £1 if you click here.Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

**

That's a wrap on the third day of five for Royal Ascot 2023, and the third day of four here at geegeez.co.uk. It's tradition that readers are invited to rely on their own wiles for Saturday's card; but, before that, tune in again tomorrow for our 'home and away' previews of the Friday action.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/06/23

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Worcester
  • 5.35 Ascot
  • 6.25 Wexford
  • 6.35 Ripon
  • 8.28 Wexford

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following runners for me to consider...

Adrian Keatley's horses have had a good month winning 7 of 16 handicaps and he has two runners at Ripon, where he has had 5 winners and 4 furthers placers from 13 handicap runs in the last year. One of those two runners, Dungart Glory, runs in one of our daily 'free' races, so it makes sense (to me, at least!) to tie the daily free feature in with the free race list and take a look at the 6.35 Ripon, an 8-runner (fingers crossed it stays that way), Class 5, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a righthanded 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

There's not much recent winning form amongst this group with only Gareeb's win three starts ago and Emily's Eclipse's win four races ago the only successes in the field's last five outings. Anjo Bonita, however, might well be an 8-race maiden but she has made the first three home in each of her last seven outings. Khinjani has placed in her last three and Bloomwithgrace came within three quarters of a length of breaking her own duck last time out.

That narrow defeat for Bloomwithgrace was at the class above this race, so she could benefit from the drop, as might Anjo Bonita, whilst Gareeb was last seen at Class 3, although she was last home of eleven some 21 lengths adrift.

The three 'form' horses, Bloomwithgrace, Khinjani and Anjo Bonita are all unexposed in handicap company, as the latter makes a hcp debut here and it's just the second crack for the other pair. Elsewhere, Emily's Eclips wears first-time cheekpieces, whilst it's just the second run in a visor for Kittykarma.

Our featured horse, Dungar Glory, not only concedes weight all round, but has to contend with a layoff of over five months since she was last home of 8 at Wolverhampton in early January, whilst the vast majority of her rivals have all raced in the last month apart from Emily's Eclipse who might also need the run after an eleven week break.

Dungar Glory is, however, the only one of the eight to have previously won here at Ripon, having scored over a mile back in August 2022 and none of the field have won at today's trip. Mind you, the field only share four wins between them with Dungar Glory successful at 7f and a mile, Emily's Eclipse scored over 7½f and Gareeb's win three starts/two months ago was also over a mile, albeit on Southwell's tapeta.

The fact that the field are a combined 4 from 64 (6.25% SR), we're probably better switching straight to the place stats on Instant Expert, as they have at least made the frame in 29 (45.3%) of those 64 outings...

...where the ones catching the eye most are...

...with those drawn at either end (Emily's Eclipse & Dungar Glory) looking the weakest of that half dozen. I've only omitted crossed off the runners in stalls 1 and 5 so far, so the full draw stats for similar contests might help us narrow the field down further, as our Draw Analyser suggests those drawn more centrally have fared the best...

...but with the ground being quicker in places and the horses having 10 furlongs to undo the effect of the draw, it might well be running styles/tactics that decide this one and our Pace Analyser is pretty clear cut on this...

Those up with the pace win 2.25 times more often than those in mid-division or further back and leaders are easily best placed to make the frame. That's not to say you can't win/place from off the pace here, but based on the field's recent outings...

...you'd want to be more Anjo Bonita than Emily's Escape, I'd guess.

Summary

Anjo Bonita has been knocking on the door (3222322) for about eight months now and a drop in class will help her here. She's not badly treated at the weights for her handicap debut and she'd be the one I'd fancy from this group. She's the pace angle in the race and might well prove difficult to reel in. Bloomwithgrace is the one most likely to give chase and that should help her to make the frame, whilst the other form horse Khinjani has two prominent runs from her last three and could be the other placer here.

I had no prices to work with at 4.35pm on Tuesday, so any decision on bets would have to wait, but I'd be looking at Anjo Bonita to win here (5/1 or 11/2 would be nice, but I doubt I'll get it) ahead of Bloomwithgrace and/or Khinjani. I suspect that pair might even be shorter than Anjo, so I doubt there'll be an E/W play for me.

 

 

Royal Ascot 2023: Day 2 (Wednesday) Preview, Tips

/in , /by

And so to the second juicy segment of the Royal Ascot tangerine: all fruit, no pith or peel. This week, geegeez.co.uk is featuring guest previews from some trusted friends - and fine judges - starting with the Wednesday curtain-raiser, the...

2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo fillies)

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service

The Queen Mary Stakes is a frantic five furlongs for the best two year old fillies in the game.

Got To Love A Grey was very impressive when successful at York, a Karl Burke front-runner is never to be ignored with the yard around 20% strike rate over the last 28 days. She would want to get out again, as being drawn in 15 it normally requires a prominent type to be successful. Got To Love A Grey also won well at Nottingham on soft, hence any juice in the surface should not be a hindrance.

The eye is further drawn to Born To Rock, for Jane Chapple-Hyam; she ran an above par time when winning at Yarmouth, do not be surprised if the two fillies mentioned thus far get out and set the others plenty to think about.

As to stats/trends, the top three in the betting has found eight of the last 12 winners. 10/12 winners won last time out, and that run was within 40 days of their run at Royal Ascot.

Beautiful Diamond, again for Karl Burke, sits atop the market and is shortening in places, she is likely to be held up as opposed to Got To Love A Grey, although the stats and trends would point to the favourite, money in the morning for the latter would be significant.

Relief Rally steps up in trip for the Haggas yard, and is in the mix for 3rd favourite, the yard however is not performing as expected and whilst that can all change in one day, she would not be a horse I would be interested in. That being said, as I type the odds are shortening and the yard have indicated there is nothing wrong with their horses, with rumours about feed swirling about amongst others.

In order as to how I will play the race, I will keep an eye on any significant market movements in the morning to see if any of the Burke runners separate themselves? Will the George Boughey filly, Graceful Thunder, receive support, having won well at Sandown, and being thought good enough to leap from Class 4 straight into Group 2 company? She's another likely prominent type, and the 33/1 available at present looks quite tempting. The same can be said for Princess Chizara, who is as front-running a type as they come, and her win at Brighton was impressive on the eye albeit in Class 5 company.

I will look to back both Burke horses, although will leave Beautiful Diamond if it hardens at the top of the market and goes below 4/1, preferring Got To Love A Grey who at present is around 10's.

It has been a good race for market movers, hence keep an eye on Balsam, ridden by Ryan Moore, who makes her debut in this class. It would be a stat-buster if she won but the booking is significant, and any money that comes late may just highlight her chances.

The pin will further likely land on Graceful Thunder and Princess Chizara at bigger prices and they are certainly both worth further consideration.

Shortlist:

Got to Love a Grey 10/1 each-way

Graceful Thunder 33/1 each-way

Princess Chizara 33/1 each-way

 

3.05 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

This is the third renewal of the Kensington Palace Stakes and, as such, there are no trends to help me along, and no 'trainer race records' to help either. Darn!

It may be worth noting that the first two winners carried 8-2 and 9-1, so it will be interesting to see whether any of the classier types can take this, those near the top end of the handicap, many of whom have some form in Class 1 contests. The first two renewals may suggest that a bigger weight is a hindrance, but it's early days in which to be making such assertions. As with many 'Festival Handicaps' you often need a bit up your sleeve and a progressive profile can help, those making their way up the handicap and yet to have reached their ceiling in conditions. Will class prevail this year or is there a lurker further down the handicap?

As I don't have any trends to help, I've had a look at a few more general trainer pointers, which for those of you who enjoy 'trainer angles' may wish to note down for the future. If trainer stats are not your thing, feel free to jump to the bottom with my race summary!

To start with I've had a look at all those trainers represented and how they perform with 'fillies' (female horses under the age of five). The top two trainers by win strike rate, with all such runners in recent years, are John/Thady Gosden and Simon/Ed Crisford.

The Gosdens operate at a 21.46% SR with all fillies, losing 203 points to starting price, but +243 to Betfair Starting Price.

Team Crisford operate at a 20.42% SR with all fillies, +71 starting price, +418 Betfair Starting Price. There may well be a micro angle hiding within these stats, if you enjoy playing around in the Query Tool.

Sir Michael Stoute, Roger Varian, Ralph Beckett and Roger/Harry Charlton are the other trainers represented who operate at greater than 15% win strike rate with their fillies.

Back to John/Thady Gosden for a moment... if you focused on 'fillies' / Ascot (all meetings) / horse sent off 12/1 or shorter starting price...

127 bets / 32 wins / 61 places (including wins)/ 25% sr / +57 SP / +83 Betfair SP / AE 1.42. (they do best with 3 and 4yo fillies)

There are two potential 'qualifiers' for that angle on Wednesday: Lady Eros (10/1) in this race, of particular interest under Oisin Murphy. And Grande Dame in the following race, under Jamie Spencer, who rides the 'Ascot Straight 8f' better than most.

Before I move on to touching on the horses and where my pins have landed, just a couple more micros to absorb and take away...

Roger/Harry Charlton...with their fillies at Ascot (all meetings) they are: 35 bets / 10 wins / 16 places (including wins) / +29% sr / +17 SP / +23 Betfair SP / AE 2.23 

They are 0/5, 1p at the Royal Meeting with their fillies but of course the racing this week is rather competitive! But an angle to note for sure moving forwards. They run Discretion in this race.

Finally on the trainers front, I'll mention Jessica Harrington, who with her Royal Ascot fillies is 13 bets / 3 wins / 5 places (including wins) / +3 Betfair SP. All wins so far have been in non-handicaps but Jessie's fillies are worth noting here this week. She runs Villanova Queen in this.

 

To the horses...

For those of you who like to focus on horses with course form, those to have won or placed at Ascot include... Crystal Caprice, Mukaddamah, Tarrabb, Belhaven, Don't Tell Claire, Farhh To Shy. Maybe the winner is there, staring me in the face, but I've landed on three others for small stakes interest... 

Lady Eros (9/1 - 10/1) - Given the Gosden stats above and her profile, I want her onside at 9-10/1. She arrives on the back of a comfortable success at Yarmouth, making all from a subsequent winner. She's a strong traveller and may well enjoy settling off a fast pace here. She's drawn in stall 1, this race on the round course, and that's a positive if Oisin can get her handy, without too many horses in front. He may need a gap up that rail as they swing into the straight. The ground should be fine and there has to be more to come at some point, especially given connections. She needs to step up, moving up from class 4, but she's open to any amount of progress in handicaps. Her dam has produced four winners already, and they all hit a RPR of at least 99 (some 105+), so here's hoping she leaves behind a mark of OR86 at some point. She's got a light weight which may help also. She'd be my main stab in this fiendishly tricky contest.

At bigger prices, Villanova Queen (16s) and Al Agaila (25s-28s) could be worth some minor EW support. Jessica Harrington's charge could have too much weight here, but she brings a touch of class, having run well in a Group 3 last April before being thrown into the Irish 1000 Guineas. She started this season well with a win over 7f, before soft/heavy found her out, and then she appeared outpaced back over 7f on her latest start at Listed level. She moves back up to 8f here and makes handicap debut - a mark of 99 could still underestimate her, for all it's a tough ask at the weights, but the yard are in great form.

Al Agaila represents the in-form team Crisford, and she needs to leave behind her run at Nottingham, after a break and where they blamed the very quick turf. If she runs like that again she won't be sighted, but she was in fine form on the all-weather before and looked progressive. She's a strong traveller who could appreciate settling behind horses here. She'll need luck from her wide draw but it's not impossible from out there and she could enjoy cutting through up the straight. The fact she stays further may be no bad thing and she may appreciate the expected slower ground here. It remains to be seen whether she's just an 'all-weather' horse but hasn't had many tries on grass. She could well give us a run for our money at a big price.

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3.40 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies and mares)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

A mile Group 2 on the straight course, for older fillies and mares, the Duke of Cambridge was first run in 2004. Since then, both John Gosden (and son Thady) and Sir Michael Stoute have won it four times. The Cheveley Park Stud has won five DoC's and is clear leading owner.

Cheveley Park and Sir Michael unite to the cause of Potapova, whose form this year - P5 - looks more like that of a point-to-pointer than a Group-class filly. On her day she's pretty good, as she showed when winning the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes last year; but it's faith in the connections that would be the most plausible route to a wager.

At the top of the shows are Jumbly and Prosperous Voyage. Jumbly has a mile win here, on the round course in the G3 Valiant Stakes last July, where she needed every yard of the trip to prevail. This is a step up in grade but the greater emphasis on stamina that the straight line presents is a positive. She opened her account this season with a career best second in the Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes and if stepping forward from that will take the beating.

Prosperous Voyage has greater race fitness, having already run twice this term. A disappointing debut at Newmarket, where she looked to be in need of the run, was confined to the dustbin 18 days ago when she came from last to first under Frankie Dettori in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Potapova three lengths behind, slightly troubled rail passage). This filly's form is closely pegged to that of Inspiral, who runs in the Tuesday opener. Expect her price to contract if that one wins, and to contract again if Frankie wins the previous race on the card. There is a minor concern that this comes soon enough after her Derby Day exertions.

As well as Jumbly, trainer Joseph O'Brien also saddles Honey Girl, a two-time winner this campaign before disappointing as favourite in the previously referenced Lanwades Stud Stakes. That she was favoured attested both to her form and the regard in which she is held, and she may be able to revert to winning ways albeit that her best races have been run on a softer surface.

Grande Dame, for the Gosdens, ran very creditably when third in the Group 1 Sun Chariot last October but hasn't been seen since; it's a big ask for her to prevail on seasonal bow. She may be ridden prominently, which was one of the keys to Saffron Beach's success a year ago.

Second in this class last time was Rogue Millennium: she was 20/1 there and patiently ridden, cutting through the Middleton field and very nearly catching all six of her rivals but failing to reel in Frankie on the favourite. There doesn't look to be too much pace in this race, with no more than an even gallop expected, and that may scupper her prospects of a repeat performance.

Queen Animatu has never been out of the frame in eight all-weather races, five of them wins; but she's nought from six on turf. There was some evidence presented in a blog somewhere that Ascot rides a little like an all-weather track (though I cannot support that statement here and now, alas) and it will need to for this lass to come out in front. She's not for me, though trainer William Haggas is obviously hugely respected.

Last year's winning trainer, Jane Chapple-Hyam, picked up Internationalangel after she was not sold at 19,000 guineas in August 2021. At that point, the filly was rated 67 having won two moderate contests in her previous three runs. She then went on to win her next five, all away from turf, before running a half length second to Highfield Princess in the 7f All Weather Filly and Mare Final over seven furlongs. Although she's not won since, she's amassed another £57,000 in prize money. Recent turf form has been restricted to just two domestic starts, second in a G3 and fourth in a G2, but she was also third in a valuable conditions event in Meydan on her final spin of three in the Emirates. This trip may stretch her stamina and she is probably not quite up to the level, on turf at least, but she's a fantastic story horse and has a most under-rated trainer.

Random Harvest may bid to make all, as she did when repelling all bar Prosperous Voyage at Epsom last time; but the turning Surrey Downs would be a lot more conducive to trailblazing than this stiff straight piste. Lightship was highly progressive on the all-weather this winter, rising from an opening handicap mark of 67 to her current perch of 100. She was bashed on bottomless at Goodwood on her sole 2023 turf try and was also thumped in her two Irish maiden efforts this time last year; as such the jury is very definitely out on whether she handles the lawns as well as the beaches.

The market looks to have a fairly tight grip on the Duke of Cambridge, with Jumbly and Prosperous Voyage the right favourites. They take out about 60% of the book, which seems reasonable. Of the two, I'd take a small chance on Prosperous Voyage though, in truth, whichever one goes off bigger - and bigger than 5/2 - would represent a sliver of value. Of the remainder, Potapova could be a busted flush, but her owner and trainer have farmed this race down the years and her run last time behind Frankie and Prosperous V was a little better than it looks in the book. She's 20/1 which might be playable for a tiny Hail Mary win single.

 

4.20 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The Prince of Wales's Stakes is one of the most prestigious Group 1 races run during the Royal Ascot meeting. Contested over 1m 2f, it's open to horses aged four years old and up. The race has a long history, first being run in 1862. Over the years, it's been won by the likes of Brigadier Gerard, Dubai Millennium, Ouija Board, and Highland Reel. This year's renewal has attracted just six runners but, from a quality perspective, it looks like the race of Royal Ascot to me. Five of the six runners are separated by just 2lb on Official Ratings.

The first thing to stand out is the lack of pace in the race. Luxembourg proved his tactical versatility when making all to win the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last time. I thought he got a peach of a ride from Ryan Moore that day and had enough in hand to hold off Bay Bridge. If there's no pace, I would expect Ryan to go on again, and he could easily follow up.

 

 

Bay Bridge was a ½ length runner-up to Luxembourg at the Curragh, but I thought the winner was always holding him. The five-year-old was a bit keen last time, and that could prove to be the case here if there's no pace on once more. A length runner-up in last year's race, he's got to be respected given his liking for the course and distance, but he would want the showers to arrive.

Adayar won the Derby at Epsom and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes here in 2021. His best performance last season came when a ½ length 2nd of 9 to Bay Bridge in the Champion Stakes over track and trip last October. He took advantage of the drop into Group 3 company on his seasonal return when winning the Gordon Richards Stakes at Newmarket last month, with the runner-up Anmaat going on to win the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp. A smart performer at his best, he looks more than capable of winning a Group 1 over 1m 2f, and we do know he likes the track.

My Prospero was just a nose behind Adayar in the Champion Stakes. The four-year-old had earlier in the season finished a short head third to Coroebus in the St James's Palace Stakes. There was plenty to like about his seasonal reappearance effort when a 2 ½ length 4th of 12 to Modern Games in the Lockinge Stakes (1m). He got outpaced 2f out but was doing his best work at the finish that day, and the return to 1m2f looks a big plus.

Mostahdaf isn't totally without a chance on ratings, and we do know the five-year-old goes well fresh and on quick ground. That said, I will be disappointed if he were to win a race as hot as this.

It's good to see the race has attracted an international challenger in the shape of Classic Causeway. The American-trained four-year-old hasn't been in the winner's enclosure since landing the Belmont Derby last July. He could be a pace angle, and quick ground suits; but even a reproduction of his best American form wouldn't be good enough.

Verdict: Luxembourg should be able to confirm Curragh form with Bay Bridge. Adayar goes well here and shouldn't be far away. That said, 1m 2f on quick ground could be too much of a speed test for him. My Prospero will be suited by the return to 1m2f and the colt can’t be far away from a breakthrough Group 1 success. He’s my selection in the race and looks a bit of value at around 4/1.

Selection: My Prospero – 4/1

 

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

5.00 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

Traditionally one of my favourite races of the meeting, especially when there is a clear draw bias. Unfortunately the draw bias can be very unpredictable. I’ve usually preferred to be drawn high on summer fast ground here on the straight course but it can change from year to year, meeting to meeting, and even day to day.

Both sides have had plenty of success in the past decade. Five winners have been drawn 11 or lower, one was drawn in the middle in 15, and four have come from 21 or higher. Bear in mind I’m writing this before any of Tuesday’s races have taken place so it might be very obvious by the time you read this as to where the bias is, if there is one. My advice would be to hold your bets until after the King's Stand has been run at 3.40pm on Tuesday, at which point two big field races will have taken place on the straight course and you’ll have more draw evidence than I currently have.

In the absence of any evidence from this week’s racing I’m going to use the pace map for the race to help figure out where you might want to be drawn.

Royal Hunt Cup pace map
It’s immediately obvious that there *should* be a stronger pace on the near side (high numbers) than the far side (low numbers) which would suggest to me that the higher numbers will get a better tow into the race. The other thing that the pace map tells you, courtesy of the heat map, is that hold up performers tend to come out best in this kind of race.

Perotto is the early favourite and I respect his chances, having backed him to win the Britannia Handicap over course and distance two years ago. He’s 3lbs lower now and trained by Roger Varian as of this season. He put in a promising comeback in the Victoria Cup on soft ground, one of the last off the bridle and staying on well into 7th.

Despite winning the Britannia, he’s not necessarily better over a mile than 7f but he is almost certainly better on fast ground so it’s not difficult to envisage him improving. A hold up ride from a very high draw is possibly going to be the way to see a horse run to maximum effect here so he’s very much respected in this. He’s not an awful price but he’s short enough considering he does have to improve on recent showings, for all there are obvious reasons why he should improve.

One I’ve had in mind for this race for a while is Intellogent and if you take a look at the pace map, he should be just as advantaged by the run of the race as Perotto. Intellogent was 2nd in last year’s renewal and that seemed one of the stronger Royal Hunt Cups for a while. The winner went close in the International Handicap next time out, the 3rd won his next three starts, the 5th and 7th won next time out and the 13th and 15th were other subsequent winners from the race. Intellogent returns here 1lb lower than he was in last year’s race.

That Hunt Cup run wasn’t his only strong big field form from last year. He was also a close 3rd and arguably unlucky loser in the John Smith’s Cup, a remarkable achievement given he gave weight to the winner who has now won a Group 1! His form tailed off somewhat for the rest of the season but he’s looked better than the bare result in both runs this season. He traveled really well in the Earl Of Sefton but ultimately needed the run on softer than ideal ground and then he caught the eye at Newbury last time, doing best of those held up after meeting trouble in running. He’s clearly been targeted at this all season and I fancy him to go well.

Another one I’ve had in mind is Astro King. He, too, represents last year’s Hunt Cup form when he was 4th off a 3lb higher mark and it’s worth remembering he was 2nd to Real World in this two years ago as well, winning the race on the near side. He very much caught the eye last time out at York in a decent race that didn’t play to his strengths and he looks primed to strike in what ought to be ideal conditions (a stiff mile and fast ground). The draw is potentially a problem though as he’s in stall 12.

At bigger prices Greatgadian (top price 28/1) could outrun his odds. His Lincoln run was excellent, as was his recent Nottingham effort which didn’t set up for him, and he could run into a place if stall 13 is okay. Orbaan is another who could be suited by this test but a repeat attempt at the Goodwood Golden Mile is probably what he’s being primed for. Outbreak should appreciate the ground and he’s a massive price (50/1) considering he finished in front of Intellogent last time out but he might find himself a bit too close to the pace in this and stall 10 might not be ideal. He’s one I could see going well in that Golden Mile at the Glorious Meeting next month or even the mile handicap at Sandown on Eclipse day.

One last one I want to mention is Ghaly. His win at Newmarket towards the end of last season has worked out amazingly well and, although that came in soft ground, he does handle faster turf. The balance of his form suggests he is better on soft though and it’s also his seasonal debut so I’m not a backer in this but I’ll be keeping a keen eye on him with a view to having a bet next time he gets plenty of give underfoot.

So, in terms of what to back, if Tuesday’s races suggest a strong bias towards lower numbers I’d be very keen on Astro King (10/1 easily obtainable at time of writing) to make it third time lucky in this race. If it looks as though higher numbers are favoured then Intellogent would be my bet (10/1 easily obtainable at the time of writing). If it is looking like only the higher numbers can win I’d also be interested in a reverse forecast on Perotto and Intellogent.

There is a fair chance there is no visible advantage from tomorrow’s races and if that’s the case I’d be having a small win only bet on Astro King and a slightly bigger each way bet Intellogent.

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5.35 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)

Preview by our own David Massey

In recent times, you’ve not had to look too far from the top of the market to find the winner of this, with the biggest-priced winner in the last five years just 15/2. Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner twice in that time, with Santiago in 2020 and Kew Gardens back in 2018, so it makes some sense to start with his Peking Opera, a 15/2 chance at the time of writing. 

Useful at two, he improved when stepped up to 13f at Naas last time, looking like he needed every yard, and this further step up in trip should bring about a bit more improvement.

You can knock a hole or two in the Naas form should you want to, as all six runners were covered by 2½l and the time figure was nothing more than solid, but you write O’Brien and Moore off at your own peril. Still, he's not for me at the prices. 

Gregory comes into this as favourite after two wins from two starts for John Gosden and as the mount of Frankie Dettori, who could steer something that gives the kids rides for a pound a pop on Blackpool Beach at Ascot and the crowd would still back it: Gregory will be supported on the day. He looked a thorough stayer at Goodwood last time out and Rab Havlin had to get stuck into him before he found top gear, but once he found it, he came right away in the closing stages looking a stayer in the process. The worry with him could be a lack of tactical speed in the closing stages; I’d imagine Frankie will be looking for the outside as any check in his run could see him struggling to find that big gear. He will remain of some interest whatever happens here, but if he’s too short, I’ll be considering laying him.

Circle Of Fire was given little chance against Military Order in the Derby Trial last time, trying to come from a poor position to win and got no nearer than a 5½l third. He looks sure to relish the step up in trip, the dam a winner over a mile and a half, but his overall form needs improvement. 

Of those at the front of the market it’s Chesspiece that makes the most appeal. I had the pleasure of seeing him in the flesh at York and he’s a really good-looking, tall, well-built type that looks made for staying trips. He ran on willingly after seeming in a spot of trouble at the top of the straight and the extra two furlongs today will be in his favour. For all that Ascot might not turn out to be the track to best showcase his talent, I suspect he’ll be ridden forward to sit behind the likely pacesetters and that should give him first crack at the leaders turning in. He showed some speed on debut when scoring at Newcastle anyway, and that despite greenness. I fancy the York run is strong form and will work out well, and he’d be my main pick for the race.   

Of those at bigger prices St Vincents Garden makes some appeal. He’s looked nothing but a stayer from the word go and although he’s got ground to make up on Peking Opera on that Naas effort, the race wasn’t run to suit and he was tapped for toe. In fact, I thought he did rather well to win his maiden at Fairyhouse last time given he was dropped back slightly in trip, and this test will suit him well. The dam was a thorough stayer at 2m (and slightly beyond!) on the Flat and I’d not be surprised to see him outrun his odds. 

6.10 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Since being upgraded to Listed status in 2004 all 19 winners have been males (just 2 fillies placed from 56 runners) who had run 1-3 times (44 losers had run 4 or more times) and had run in the last 43 days (18 losers had not). They had all finished top 6 last time out with all 19 horses that finished 7th or worse last time out also finishing unplaced here.

Only one winner had their last run on the all weather (from the 34 to have tried) when the maiden Flashmans Papers caused a massive shock at 100/1 in 2008. He had, though, made his debut on turf at Windsor.

Maiden winners aren't that uncommon with, as well as that 2008 winner, the 1997, 1999, 2002, 2019 and 2020 winners all scoring for the first time here. It's worth noting that they had all finished either second or third last time out. The last horse to win on debut was the Sir Michael Stoute filly Dazzle who scored as the 7/2 favourite back in 1996 when the race was run as a Class 2 contest.

14 of the last 17 winners had suffered a defeat at least once in their career with all 3 exceptions coming into the race having won their only start. The last 18 runners to have won both their last two starts have been beaten in this with just two making the frame.

Wesley Ward has won the race twice but all of his other 15 runners have finished unplaced including his last 12 runners (he last won the race in 2014), all of his 10 fillies and 13 of his 14 runners that were 10/1 or shorter in the betting.

Shocks are common in the Windsor Castle with Flashmans Papers at 100/1 and Wesley Ward's Strike the Tiger at 33/1 being the largest priced winners this century. We've also had two 16/1 winners, two 20/1 winners and a 22/1 winner since 2006.

Middle drawn horses haven't fared too well in the Windsor Castle with all bar two of the last 26 winners drawn within 7 of either end of the stalls.

Runners from Sandown's National Stakes have had a good record in the race since 2015 (321214) with both 2017 winner Sound And Silence at 16/1 and 2021 winner Chipotle at 22/1 having run in that contest. In fact, in 2021 the Sandown race provided the 22/1 winner and 4th at 66/1 from just two qualifiers. This year's impressive winner Elite Status goes elsewhere at the meeting, and is a hot favourite, but the 2nd and 3rd are represented.

It really is a very open race and with the recent history of the National Stakes and outsiders doing well I'm simply going to side with the runner up from this year's race, WORLD OF DARCY. He was eased down when winning on debut at Pontefract in early may (runner up was a stable mate and has since won his last two races) before doing best of the field to chase home Elite Status, albeit at a distance of 5 lengths in that Sandown Listed contest. He comes from a stable who does well with their juveniles and should go well from a decent draw.

SELECTION: WORLD OF DARCY 1/2pt EW at 20/1

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

*

And that brings us to the two-fifths point of the week, but half way on the geegeez previews with yours true traditionally too cream crackered after going through 28 races to face the Saturday card. It could well be that that comes as a blessed relief by then!

Good luck.

Matt

Racing Insights, Tuesday 20/06/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...which, as you'd expect, is heavily Ascot-oriented. We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.20 Thirsk
  • 2.55 Thirsk
  • 3.40 Ascot
  • 7.00 Brighton
  • 7.15 Beverley

The 3.40 Ascot is on the 'free' list and is the second richest race of the day. It also features three runners from The Shortlist, but at 19-runners, it's not for me, even if SkyBet are paying 6 places! Instead, I'll take the last of the 'free' races, a decent standard sprint at one of my favourite tracks; the 7.15 Beverley is an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on good ground and here's how they'll line up for the "Beverley Speedy Handicap"...

No LTO winners here, but top weight Hiya Maite was third after winning his penultimate race, whilst Embour, California Gem and Manila Scouse have all won inside five runs and Embour is denoted as a fast finsher, ideal for this kind of contest! Only Spring Is Sprung and Ventura Flame are winless in seven (8 & 13 respectively if anyone's counting). All eight have at least one 5f win under thier belts and both California Gem and bottom weight Ventura Flame are former course and distance winners.

Only half of the field ran at Class 3 last time out; Spring Is Sprung was 4th of 14 at Class 2, beaten by a length at 33/1, whilst Manila Scouse (3rd of 7), Dandy Dinmont (5th of 9) and Ventura Flame (5th of 17 over C&D) all step up from Class 4 and it's hard to see any of that trio improving for a step up. Most of them do have the benefit of a recent run; half a dozen have raced in the last month, Calfornia Gem was seen six weeks ago, but Embour hasn't raced for nearly 16 weeks now and might well need the run.

Embour has, however, won three Class 2 contests on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, whilst under today's conditions, we see that he's the only previous Class 3 winner too. Just four of the field have won on good ground and in what looks a fairly modest set of numbers, California Gem probably makes most appeal...

Embour looks weak across the board, but is now 8lbs lower than his last win. Devil's Angel's numbers are steady, aside from being a Class 4 horse, Dandy Dinmont hasn't shone over the minimum trip and has fared little better (1 from 6) at 6f and is still 7lbs higher than his last win, whilst Ventura Flame has a good record on good to firm ground and also on soft/heayy, but has shown very little in between the two extremes! I'll consult the place stats, in case any of these have been 'unlucky' in their defeats...

...which does, in fairness, put some of these in a better light, but Spring Is Sprung isn't great over 5f and Ventura Flame still hasn't performed on good ground, but several of these are still in it, as we turn to draw and pace, where I suspect the emphasis will be on the latter over a straight 5f! Now, I wouldn't normally expect the draw to have too much of an influence over a straight five, but stalls 1 and 2 have done better than par here...

...albeit off a fairly small sample size. The 'perceived' (I remain to be persuaded) bias is less pronounced when it comes to making the frame, though and that data is possibly more reliable. I am, however, pretty confident that those races used for the draw data will tell me that the "Speedy Handicap" is likely to be won by a front runner, but I'm not always right, so let's check...

...and I think that's fairly conclusive. Leaders win most often, they place most often and they convert the highest percentage of places into wins, so we want a horse that'll be sharply away and based on the field's most recent efforts...

...the consistent Hiya Maite looks like he might well try to win this from the front. Embour was, of course, noted on the card as a fast finisher, but you'd have to be from where's he's going to be halfway!

Summary

Easy call for me here, as I'm with Hiya Maite. He's in good consistent (3 wins and 4 places from his last 8) form, runs off the same mark as a narrow defeat over 6f LTO when headed late on and looks like grabbing an easy lead here. he could prove difficult to peg back and at 7/2, there could still be a bit of value in the price.

As for the places, I don't like Embour, Dandy Dinmont nor Devil's Angel, but any two from the other four could get in here. None will be at what I'd want for an E/W bet, so I won't be backing them, but if pushed for one for the forecast etc, recent C&D winner Ventura Flame receives weight all round and might be the answer.

Royal Ascot 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

/in , , /by

It's the best week in the British flat racing calendar, and Royal Ascot 2023 promises to showcase the very pinnacle of the sport with runners from around the world competing on the greatest stage. With no more than a few showers forecast conditions are expected to ride on the quick side of good through five days of thrilling action.

In a change from tradition, necessitated by a badly timed dose of Covid and a longer than expected return to full fitness, I've drafted in some help to cover this year's Royal meeting. Specifically, I've asked six pals in the game to each preview one race per day Tuesday to Friday; and I will preview the other one each day. That should make for an interesting mix of styles, and it's an opportunity for a few of the best tipsters around to illustrate their work.

As I always say when I write 20,000 words-plus in the big meeting weeks, it's the same amount of effort that goes into the research whether the picks win or lose, so please try to keep an eye on each contributor's 'process' - how they present their case - as well as their performance in this tiny four-races-each sample. If you like what you read, you can check out more of their work at the links provided; but, of course, this is the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot preview, so allow me to kick things off in the Queen Anne Stakes...

 

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

About half an hour after the Royal Procession, which - crucially for racing - will include His Majesty The King and Queen Consort Camilla, a dozen older blueblood thoroughbreds will travel the same final mile, albeit at a considerably more rapid rate, in the Queen Anne Stakes, the now traditional opening act at Royal Ascot.

The straight mile takes some seeing out for both horses and riders and is a pure test of 'getting the fractions right'. As can be seen from the image below, held up horses have the best record on quick ground in this field size over the no turn mile track.

 

 

Indeed, it is worth dwelling on the fact that horses racing either on the lead or prominently are a woeful 2 from 85 (2.35% strike rate), whereas those ridden more patiently have won 14 from 122 (11.5% strike rate). The place percentages and PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) figures corroborate the win numbers: taking one's time is generally the way this gets done.

Fans of the top of the market need not fear, as both Modern Games and Inspiral usually rate in the middle to latter part of the field before making their big moves. Inspiral will be the first of 30-odd Frankie 'bogeys' for bookmakers and if she collects, expect further cuts to the odds of Signor Dettori's mounts later on the card. Her form case is strong, if hardly bombproof; to wit, she won the Fillies' Mile as a two-year-old on Newmarket's straight Rowley course, and she won the Coronation Stakes over the round mile here last year - both Group 1 contests. She also prevailed in last year's Prix Jacques le Marois.

But she was beaten in the Falmouth (straight mile, G1) when sent off 1-7, and was only 11/10 when missing the break in the QEII over course and distance last backend. In spite of winning five of her seven career starts, she's lost her most recent two. She has gone well fresh, which is a positive, but looking closer at the merit of her form, she beat the same filly, Prosperous Voyage, twice, before losing to her, and was four  lengths behind Modern Games in the QEII. Prosperous Voyage is a good filly but she wouldn't be 2/1 in this field, or 3/1.

Moreover, in France, she had a neck to spare over Light Infantry, who re-opposes as a 25/1 shot. Very few ride straight miles better than Jamie Spencer, which makes Light Infantry interesting at his price.

What of Modern Games? There was, for about half an hour, some chat about Charlie Appleby's team being out of form. It wasn't totally unmerited as his usual 25% and up strike rate dropped to a more everyman 12%. Then, of course, the blues started winning again and, at time of writing, he's showing at 38% in the past fortnight. More usefully, he's a 29% hitter over the past year. Modern Games won the Breeders' Cup Mile last autumn, a more different mile G1 you couldn't wish to find; but he also ran second in the QEII over this track/trip combo and won the G1 Lockinge down Newbury's straight eight.

It could be argued that the field that last day was less than stellar; given that a number of them also line up here, that argument is academic. Modern Games looks the more credible for match bet players against the filly, despite conceding three pounds sex allowance to that one.

Let's talk about ratings for a minute. Given that we are 2/1 each of two - Inspiral and Modern Games - you might expect that they'd have a clear ratings edge over the other ten. Well, they are top of the pile, the colt on 121, the filly on 120; but it's a yawning, erm, one pound back to the next pair, Mutasaabeq and Native Trail, both on 119, with Light Infantry 116, and Pogo and Berkshire Shadow on 115. That's quite a congested collective, just six pounds separating seven runners. Regardless of whether either of the two jollies win, the race is screaming for an each way play against them.

Mutasaabeq goes from the front, and although Circus Maximus was able to win in that manner under a masterful Ryan Moore ride in 2020, I'd be against such tactics normally. Mutasaabeq is likely to face contention from Pogo for the lead, and in any case has done his winning in small fields at Group 2 level. Native Trail often races prominently, and may also be a little closer to the heat earlier than ideal. His form is perfectly plausible, away from an abortive two-race ten furlong adventure. On his first spin this term, he ran flat behind the aforementioned Muta on what also his first start after a wind op.

Last year started with a win in the Craven, second in the 2000 Guineas and a win in the Irish 2000 before running a close third in the Eclipse; it ended, one run later, with a pasting at the hands of an imperious Baaeed in the Juddmonte International at York. Back at a mile and if ridden with restraint, he can reverse form with his last day conqueror, though he doesn't look any sort of bargain in the market.

Chindit is another who tends to race up with the pace, as he did when the middle man of seven in this race a year ago; he was whacked eight lengths by Baaeed there, but one must remember that Baaeed dished out plenty of spankings in 2022. It should also be noted that, during the closing stages of the Lockinge, in which Chindit finished second to Modern Games, he tried to bite that rival! Presumably that was a one off but it does rather bring into question his temperament...

Let's come back to Light Infantry. David Simcock's globetrotter has run some crackers in defeat: he was a staying on second over an inadequate seven furlongs in last year's G1 Prix Jean Prat, was a staying on neck second to Inspiral next time out in the G1 Jacques le Marois, and was a two length staying on sixth of 20 over seven and a half in the G1 Golden Eagle at Rosehill, Australia, after that. Sure, he's taken time to find his form this season but, on his third and most recent outing was a short neck second in the G1 Prix d'Ispahan over nine and a half furlongs. He actually led there but, if Spencer bides his time here, this fella is likely to finish well. And he's 20/1. He's my each way against the field, four places with 365 if you can get them.

 

3.05 Coventry Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by the "Cleeve Racing" service

Royal Ascot, Day 1... and for the Royal meeting, Cleeve Racing's head advisor, Mike C, will be previewing some of the major 2-year-old races, and providing a shortlist for Geegeez punters to consider.

Tuesday, is the Coventry Stakes... this is a race, in more modern times, where it has paid to look away from the favourite, with winners at 150/1, 11/1 and 8/1 going in in the space of the last three renewals. A wise man once said, "trying to make sense of 2 year-old form is similar to Michael Fish predicting the weather"... but was he right?

Well, looking at the market, the impressive River Tiber sits 2 wins from 2 runs and has posted speed figures above par at Navan and Naas respectively. Asadna burst onto the scene for the Boughey yard, and on the clock, is arguably the quickest horse in the race (when one considers weighting - they will all run off a level 9st 3lbs here).

Bobsleigh, at a much bigger price, catches the eye after chasing down the front-running Balon D’Or at Epsom just before the line. That hold up style, however, may prove his undoing as he will need to be passing some serious horses this time. Jockey Charles Bishop may be wise to ride him sightly more prominently on what is likely to be decent ground (assuming the rain largely stays away!). 11 of the last 12 Coventry winners won their prior start, an angle which removes five from the field, though none shorter than 40/1.

Givemethebeatboys has secured the Dettori magic for the race, and had the beating of Noche Magica (well regarded for the Norfolk on Thursday) when scoring at the Curragh on Irish Guineas weekend. Jessica Harrington’s horses come into the meeting with a 26% strike rate over the last 14 days, and she's 7 from 29 at Ascot in the past five years, so her runners are not to be ignored.

A 66/1 shot here, Politico won over 6f at Chester and James Doyle has been jocked up by Charlie Johnston. If able to improve for the firmer ground, this front-runner is well drawn in 4, and will certainly want to get out and see it all before him; if he gets rolling, and you can get extra places with your bookmaker (Sky 6 places, 365 5 places), he may take some catching if the race falls apart behind.

Politico and Bobsleigh are big prices, and at 66/1 & 20/1 would be the each-way plays at small stakes, and I'd certainly be looking for extra places or other concessions. River Tiber looks the right favourite and you would be brave to not think AP O’Brien and Ryan Moore will rule the meeting once more; at the odds, however, towards the top of the market, Givemethebeatboys, who goes through the sales ring Monday ahead of the meeting, looks worthy of an each way play. The Frankie factor may shorten the odds further in the morning, hence if you fancy that one, get on overnight.

 

3.40 King's Stand Stakes (5f, Group 1, 3yo+)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

Since 1997, we have had 11 winners from the 26 renewals of the King's Stand that were trained outside of the UK and Ireland (France, America, Hong Kong, Spain and Australia) making it the most 'international' race run at Royal Ascot in the last quarter of a century. Ireland's contribution in that time consists of dual winner Sole Power, who is the only Irish-trained horse to win the King's Stand since 1987, with 32 Irish-trained horses to have tried since 1997.

Australian runners top the table of international raiders with five wins this century, all five having contested the Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington that February. Four of the five won that Group 1 with the other (Nature Strip) failing by a short-head in second. This year's winner, Coolangatta, is set to line up and she must therefore be respected having won that very important trial by ½ length from the subsequent Group 1 winner I Wish I Win.

We've had a 3yo, 4yo, 5yo, 6yo and a 7yo win in the last six years with a pretty even spread of those age groups throughout this century but no horse over seven has won the King's Stand in the history of the race as a Group 1 (1973). Based purely on the win % strike rate of each age group the 6yo and 7yo's just shade their younger counterparts.

Charles Hills has probably been the best trainer record in the race with his last nine runners finishing 272722145. These runs have come from just three horses including his runner again this year, Equilateral, who has finished 2-7-5 in the 2019/2020/2022 renewals. He'll be bidding to become the oldest ever winner of the race but it's difficult to see him winning as an 8yo when he was unable to win in his younger days as a 4,5 or 7yo.

Six of the seven winners between 2003 and 2009 were overseas winners that didn't have an official BHA rating but the odd one out through those seven years, and all of the last 13 winners, have been rated 111+. That means a lot of the runners in this year's field don't quite 'cut the mustard' compared to a typical King's Stand winner. This includes the well fancied filly Dramatised (currently rated 108).

But, five of the seven winners between 2010 and 2016 had their previous run in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock and, although the race hasn't provided the winner since then, there have been seven horses to come out of that race to finish top five here including at odds of 50/1 and 66/1. Dramatised beat Equilateral in this year's Temple Stakes by a length with Existent 4th and Mitbaahy, Happy Romance, Annaf and Twilight Calls further behind in 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th respectively. All five winners and the nine further placed horses that last ran in the Temple Stakes had all finished in the first seven. Annaf and Twilight Calls therefore have it to do to reverse form here.

Fillies or mares have only won the race four times this century but those winners came from a much smaller number of runners than their male counterparts which actually gives them a better overall % strike rate. You would be foolhardy to dismiss any female runner in this race based purely on their sex especially as we find three exceptional female sprinters at the head of the betting market: two 3yo fillies from opposite sides of the globe, Coolangatta and Dramatised, and the multiple Group 1-winning 6yo mare Highfield Princess.

On both the trends and current form it would seem that the race winner is likely to come from this trio with my preference being to side with HIGHFIELD PRINCESS. She racked up a Group 1 hat-trick last Summer before rounding off her year with a 4th in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. She's a versatile mare who has won Group 1's on ground ranging from Soft to Good to Firm and has won from 5f to 7f. She made a very encouraging seasonal debut when, despite her sex allowance, she still had to give weight to the entire field yet just failed by only ½ length to hold on in the closing stages of the Group 2 Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York.

This is going to be fast and furious with some international 'speedballs' who like to race from the front sure to make it a real five furlong dash, and that might just help the selection who likes to race prominently herself and who will be quite content to get a tow into the race before unleashing her stamina-packed finish.

For those looking for a bigger price to get stuck into, I'm also having a small each way bet on BRADSELL who returns to the scene of his greatest victory to date, last year's Coventry. Things haven't really gone to plan since with defeat in last season's Phoenix Stakes and two 3rd place finishes so far this year but he's had excuses and this drop back to 5f looks a great move from his trainer. He hasn't quite got home in either of his starts in 2023 but both times he came through to lead at around the furlong pole and this fast run 5f race could be just what he needs to see him return to something like his best.

SELECTIONS: 5/2 HIGHFIELD PRINCESS WIN / 33/1 BRADSELL EW (As many EW places as you can get)

Click here for news of Gavin's 'Horses to Follow from Royal Ascot'

 

4.20 St James's Palace Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

The St James's Palace Stakes has a rich history and has seen some of the best three-year-old milers in the sport compete for the winner's first prize. It often attracts top-class horses who have previously contested one of the mile colts' Classics earlier in the season. It offers a chance for the leading three-year-old milers to establish themselves as the best in their age group. Nine have been declared for this year’s renewal and it promises to be the race of day one of Royal Ascot.

All the Guineas form lines come together in this year’s race: we have Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas winner Chaldean and the third home Royal Scotsman; the Irish 2,000 Guineas form is represented by winner Paddington, and we also have the French 2,000 Guineas runner-up, Isaac Shelby. Add in a couple of progressive up in class contenders in Cicero's Gift and Mostabshir and we have the makings of a cracker of a contest.

It was good, good to firm in places on the round course on Monday morning and so far most of the thunderstorms/heavy rain missed Ascot with light rain forecast for Tuesday. If the ground has eased that will be a big boost to the chances of ante post favourite Chaldean. The son of Frankel is likely to be ridden prominently. However, there looks to be plenty of pace on and horses ridden more patiently to tend to be the ones to be with over this round mile.

Second in on my ratings is Paddington. The son of Siyouni has won all three starts this season and created a good impression when winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Tactically versatile, he’s open to more improvement than Chaldean and is bidding to give Aidan O’Brien a ninth success in the race.

Royal Scotsman ran terribly in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time. That performance was too bad to be true and whist I think the round track will suit the colt better he does have questions to answer after his run at the Curragh.

Isaac Shelby was runner-up in the French 2,000 Guineas and should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. He's another who is ground versatile, having won on good to firm as a juvenile and nearly won a Classic on very soft last time, and I think there could be more to come from this colt who has solid each way claims.

Cicero's Gift has been well supported in the ante-post market. A winner of his sole juvenile start, he has won both his races this year and produced a Group 1 level turn of foot to win at Goodwood last month. He's yet to race on quick ground but there’s no reason on pedigree why he can’t be effective on it.

Mostabshir is another who has been well backed in the ante-post betting. He's back up in class after winning a novice stakes last time, but there was plenty to like about that quick ground success at York.

I find it difficult to make a case for the other three runners Galeron, Charyn and Indestructible. Of the three, Galeron was just 3¼ lengths behind Paddington in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and should be suited by the likely pace of the race.

Verdict: Of the front two in the betting - Chaldean and Paddington - I’m firmly in the latter’s camp. The price has gone on Cicero's Gift but he remains an exciting prospect. The same can be said of Mostabshir but there’s a bit of juice left in his price, and he could drift on the day. The market seems to be underestimating Isaac Shelby’s French Guineas form, but I think it would be unwise to do so, and I think he can go close. Paddington is the most likely winner but at 10/1 Isaac Shelby looks the value each way play.

Isaac Shelby – 10/1 @ Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (paying 3 places)

 

 

Royal Ascot 2023: Victor Value

 

5.00 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

The trainers...

As always a thorough stamina test awaits this year's runners and riders, with the trip just shy of 2m4f. It's an unsettled forecast which is never overly helpful and the course could receive up to 6mm of rain on race day, on watered ground. It has been very dry, however, and whether this changes the ground too much it awaits to be seen, but even on decent ground there is rarely a hiding place in this contest. I'll assume it will be no worse than 'good'.

Unsurprisingly given the distance, dual purpose trainers, many with a focus on the jumping game, have done very well in recent years. Willie Mullins leads the way, winning this on four occasions in the last eleven renewals, from nineteen runners. Ryan Moore has ridden three of those winners and that combination, with last year's second Bring On The Night, heads the market with the odds compilers taking few chances.

Ian Williams knows how to win this race also, having bagged it twice in recent years. He's throwing four darts at this year's contest: Zinc White, Law of The Sea, The Grand Visir and East Asia. Alan King (Tritonic) and Nicky Henderson (Ahorsewithnoname) are the two other trainers with runners in this year's renewal to have won the Ascot Stakes previously. Their runners deserve an even closer look.

Keeping an eye on those trainers who've previously been successful in a race is a worthwhile 'way in', as you'd like to think they've targeted the race again and know the type of horse required to get the job done. In these big Festival handicaps I do also like using my own trends to help narrow down the field. The danger with trends and 'shortlists' is that you can be blinded to other runners, but again, as a 'way in' or 'starting point', I find them useful.

 

The trends...

My 'trends profile' for this race, looking at the last 15 renewals...

15/287 total runners, 61 placed horses (including winners) 

15/15 had 11+ career runs (10< : 0/70,13 places)

14/15 had won at Class 3 level or above (had not: 1/84, 13p)

14/15 had won over at least 2 miles in career (had not: 1/78, 12p)

14/15 had never run in race (had: 1/39, 2p)

14/15 had 2+ handicap wins in career (0-1: 1/118, 20p)

 

Applying those trends would have found 12 of the previous 15 winners, 12/91 runners, 29 placed horses (including winners), +151 points to Betfair Exchange Starting Price, if backing them all. The horses to hit the profile this year are:

Ahorsewithnoname, Callingthewind, Zoffee, Solent Getaway, Tritonic, Urban Artist, Prince Imperial, East Asia 

Every winner in the previous 15 renewals has also run in at least four handicaps. Plenty with fewer than four have placed, but as yet none have got their heads in front. From that list above, Ahorsewithnoname and Urban Artist need to overcome their handicapping inexperience.

For those of you who enjoy finding your own winners, those initial eight 'qualifiers' could be a worthwhile starting point, along with the trainers list above also.

*

So, where does that leave me... after much cogitating...

Calling The Wind - I want to have the Richard Hughes runner onside here at double figures, with as many places as I can get my hands on.

 

Any users of Geegeez Gold and the 'Instant Expert' tab will see why he appeals as an EW proposition in this race - see above.

Provided he drops his head we should get a run for our money and he's one of the few horses in here proven over the trip on the flat (and over further), which should count for plenty as they enter the final 1/2 mile. He also won't mind what the weather does. The horse hits my trends profile and has yet to be out of the places at Ascot, with a course record of 1/5, 5 places. Two of those places were in the last two runnings of the Queen Alexandra Stakes, which is over a couple of furlongs further and that distance may just stretch him here.

This trip looks his optimum, especially if he can get a more prominent position and just lob along. If he settles (he was a bit fresh when last seen), he should just keep galloping at the end, when many have had enough. He's just a very likeable stayer and this mark of 99 looks workable. With Billy Loughnane's useful 3lb claim, he's just 2lb higher than when winning a decent handicap at Goodwood over 21.5f. In fact this is just his second ever flat handicap over 20f or further, and there could still be some upside potential in such conditions. I'd like to think this has been the plan and Richard has his string in fine form... 5/22,8p in the previous 14 days, 59% rivals beaten. Everything looks set for a monster run here and he should be able to get out and slot in handy. Hopefully he can give the favourite something to think about entering the final couple of furlongs...

Of course, the rest of the field may be chasing home Bring On The Night. I don't think anyone is going to be shocked if he puts up a bold show and maybe he will just win. He hasn't been seen since finishing second in this race last year, but we all know Willie can ready one off a long break. Hopefully he may be plenty fresh enough but, if he repeats last year's effort, he sets a rather good standard, given he bumped into Coltrane that day; that one has since won at G3 and G2 level, and is now 19lbs higher than when taking this. I'm not sure there's a future Coltrane in this line up, and Bring On The Night is open to plenty of improvement also and a worthy favourite, but not a price I like diving into in these sorts of races.

Calling The Wind: 1 point each-way 10/1-12/1

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5.35 Wolferton Stakes (1m2f, Listed, 4yo+)

Preview by our own David Massey

The Wolferton looks a wide-open affair this year with bookmakers currently going 7-2 the field (4s if you’ve a Bet365 account, you lucky people). 

Saga heads them up for the King and Queen, and the Gosden/Dettori combination, so I don’t need to tell you he’s bound to be well backed on the day; if Frankie’s already got a winner or two on the card, he'll be shorter still, with bookmaker liabilities on the multis running up. Nearer the time you’ll need to consider whether Saga has simply been overbet if that scenario unfolds, in which case there will be value elsewhere. 

However, right here right now, we’ve no idea what’s going to happen and so I’m trying to find what value there is today. Saga has only won one of his ten starts to date - in itself, not a problem, as recent winning form is no barrier to winning this - and his Ascot record in full reads 1628, his second coming in the Britannia here last year when he would have won with a better start. He still has to fully prove that a mile and a quarter is his trip though, and almost on that alone I’d want to try and take him on. 

The first one that caught my eye for this was Sir Michael Stoute’s Solid Stone, purely as I was at Sandown on Brigadier Gerard night and to my eyes he looked badly in need of his seasonal outing. He was meant to make the pace for Desert Crown that night but in truth he didn’t set much of one, the fractions to halfway not quick, and once he was headed I expected him to drop right away, given his level of fitness.

However, to my surprise, he rallied well in the closing stages to get back past Cash for third, a most promising seasonal debut. Last year he only needed the one run to put him straight before winning at Windsor on his second outing, and he then went on to finish third to Juan Elcano in this very race. He’s fully effective on the ground and at the trip, and clearly handles Ascot, so there are plenty of plus points. I’d expect Richard Kingscote to ride him forward from stall 11 - even though there are plenty of pace-pressers, front-runners are somewhat thinner on the ground - and race front rank throughout. 

At an even bigger price I’ll be risking a few shekels each-way on Checkandchallenge with Skybet’s 5 places each-way. He’s yet to even try ten furlongs but the pedigree - he’s a half brother to White Shaheen, who was a winner at 12f, amongst others - gives hope and so do the visuals, often getting a little outpaced in his races before staying on at one pace again. He’s been very highly tried in Group 1 and Group 2 company on his last four starts, taking on the likes of Modern Games and Bayside Boy, beaten only 2½l in the QEII last year  and he’ll be one that’s ridden cold out back with Atzeni looking for the gaps late. I’m expecting prices north of 25-1 tomorrow and at that point, he’ll be getting a few of my hard-earned quids. 

 

6.10 Copper Horse Stakes (1m6f, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

Before going through the field in a race like this I prefer to review potential draw and pace biases so that I can upgrade/downgrade each runner as I look at them, based on how advantaged/disadvantaged they are likely to be.

You don’t get too many big field races over this marathon distance at Ascot unfortunately and this race itself has only had three previous renewals so I’m not going to get overly attached to any pace or draw data due to the small sample size.

From the data we do have, prominent racers enjoy a fair sized advantage with mid-division next best. Extreme rides (either on the pace or held up) seem disadvantaged. There only seems to be one habitual front runner in this field, although a few others have made the running on just one of their most recent starts. I think this race will be run at no more than an even gallop which won’t suit those held up or the ‘grinders’, it will suit those near the pace and those with a relative turn of foot at these distances.

As for the draw, again due to the limited sample size I’m taking these figures with a slight pinch of salt but the higher draws have struggled on what limited evidence there is.

Rolling three stall average percentage of rivals beaten at the Copper Horse Handicap distance

Rolling three stall average percentage of rivals beaten at the Copper Horse Handicap distance



I’m using some fairly broad parameters to increase the sample size but judging by this PRB3 data I’d rather be on a horse drawn in single figures than double figures.

There will be plenty of interest in this race due to the inclusion of Vauban in the field. Willie Mullins’ 2022 Triumph Hurdle winner is a fascinating contender and you’d have to assume he’s well in here off a flat rating of 101 given his hurdle rating is 160.

Mullins also has the second favourite in this race for good measure in the form of Absurde. How much he has in hand from a mark of 101 completely depends on how much he’s improved for the switch to Mullins from his previous trainer in France and it’s just speculation really.

I can never really be a backer of these Mullins horses in Royal Ascot handicaps. So many of them run well but they are nearly always very short, most of them are unproven on fast ground when they come here and it’s pure guesswork as to how well handicapped they are .

My general approach is just to hope they get beaten, be it on merit or by luck, and look for some each way value against them. Vauban may well win but I think you’ll find better 7/4 shots at Thirsk or Ripon this week (amongst other places).

The Joseph O’Brien-trained Point King is probably the most likely front runner and, although he has a ‘bad’ draw in 16, by going forward he could easily negate that. He’s fairly unexposed but has been showing his hand to the handicapper by running well in Listed races around this distance so I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him.

The conjecture continues with Charlie Appleby’s Ruling Dynasty, who makes his handicap debut after winning a 12f novice contest on his only run this season. He’s by far the least exposed in the field having had just three runs but his form last season at least is nothing special. On his second career start he beat a now 69-rated rival off level weights by less than 2 lengths. He was impressive last time out at Haydock, stepped up in trip, but it’s almost impossible to determine the strength of that form. Out of principle I’m against anything making a handicap debut off 97 in a race like this, especially a horse by Night Of Thunder, a sire who has had limited success beyond 12f.

I would have been quite interested in a small each way bet on Raymond Tusk given he’s generally available at 66/1 and has run several good races here before. He’s drawn really wide and I can’t understand how the handicapper has put him up 2lbs for finishing a well beaten 3rd last time out so I’m swerving him.

If Ascot really caught the thunder showers I’d be keen on Postileo but I’m not sure he’s as well handicapped on faster ground as he is in softer conditions. Meanwhile Cemhaan is a horse I’ve followed for some time and conditions are ideal for him but he’s surely badly handicapped now having gone up 9lbs for winning easily last time when getting a very soft lead on a day when Kempton was really favouring front runners.

On the assumption of fast ground there are two horses I’d consider as possible bets…

The best piece of flat form from any of these runners has to be finishing 2nd (beaten a neck) in the 2020 St Leger and we have the opportunity to back that runner, Berkshire Rocco, off a mark of 99 here. Not only that, he’s finished 2nd in a Group 3 over this course and distance and won a Listed race over it.

Having missed most of last season through injury, he hasn’t quite returned the same horse that was rated 116 at his peak but he has generally been running well at his new level. That was at least the case over the winter but on the face of it he’s run below par on both runs since a 58 day break. He was definitely below par on All Weather Finals Day at Newcastle, however his last run, when 10th beaten 7 lengths in a handicap at Newmarket, is better than it first looks. The 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 11th have all come out and won since and Andrew Balding is adamant he wants better ground, so that run can probably be upgraded a fair bit given it took place on soft turf.

He’s drawn a little wider than seems ideal (11) but he should be well placed if he races prominently, as he often does. Decent ground should suit him perfectly and it’s been almost two years since he ran on good or better ground so we could see an immediate improvement from him based on underfoot conditions.

I’ve also got some interest in another runner who missed most of last season and that’s Aaddeey. He’s been a particularly frustrating horse for me to follow as I was convinced he was very well handicapped off marks around 100 in 2021 due to several good runs in warm races but I was also convinced he wanted good ground. He’s won twice since then on soft ground!

I do think he might be even better on top of the ground though and, after losing his form in his final two runs last season for Simon & Ed Crisford, he’s back this season for Archie Watson. That stable switch, and a wind op, seemed to get him back to form last time out as he won pretty cosily at Ripon. He had the run of the race that day and it wasn’t a particularly strong event but he’s at least proved his well being again, even if it’s cost him a 4lb rise.

He’s only gone this far once before and didn’t seem to quite get home but that was in soft ground and a few other things didn’t go his way that day so whilst the jury is still out on his stamina, it’s certainly not as though he definitely doesn’t stay. He used to be held up for previous connections but I’d be quite happy to see him track the pace this time from his lowish draw. If he does that it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s one of the runners going best turning for home.

This race looks a lot tougher than previous renewals due to several unknowns but I do think there is a little bit of value in backing both Aaddeey and Berkshire Rocco each way given they are both generally available at 16/1 (bigger in places) at the time of writing. I couldn’t be massively confident though so I could only advise very small stakes on this one.

Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits. You can join my private service for just £1 if you click here.Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

 

*

And so endeth a bumper yomp through the form of day one of Royal Ascot 2023. For the first time this week, my thanks go to the team of smart judges who have each taken a turn at the wheel across the seven races. They'll all be back for Day Two, as will I. Let's get this party started!

Matt

Racing Insights, Monday 19/06/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Windsor
  • 7.43 Kilbeggan

And as PACE is the free feature, let's tackle a sprint in the 5.00 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Spirit of Breeze and Sabah Al Ward are still maidens after five and four attempts respectively and neither have even made the frame and I don't see that changing here. The rest of the field have all won at least one of their last five outings with Alpine Goal the sole LTO winner.

That was here over course and distance (Diomed Spirit has also won over C&D) less than a fortnight ago and she now steps up one class (as does Cuban Grey) and she is denoted as being a fast finisher. Destiny's Spirit and Cuban Grey are also both former winners over this trip.

Most of the field have raced in the last six weeks, but Diomed Spirit may need the run after a run of poor form last season was halted by a six months absence and he might well need the run and he's probably carrying too weight here.

Elsewhere, Sabah Al Ward runs in a handciap for the just the second time and now wears a hood for the first time as well as a first time in a tongue tie. Spirit of Breeze also makes a debut in a tongue-tie.

I already think that this race is beyond the two maidens and Diomed Spirit's long layoff after some poor runs makes me uncomfortable, so I'm only really interested in these runners on Instant Expert...

...where Cuban Grey looks like one to be swerved! His stats on standard going and over this trip are particularly awful and he's going to sent packing from my analysis, unless he's just been unluvky and has made the frame regularly...

The numbers are admittedly better, but he's still the worst of the four and has to say goodbye, leaving us with runners in stalls 3, 4 & 6, but over the last 100 or so races over this course and distance, there doesn't seem to be any discernible advantage to being in a certain stall...

...although stall 3's stats are the best, but I think not anomalous and unreliable, whereas feature of the day, the PACE angle, is a totally different matter...

...where the data suggests the further forward you race, the better chance of winning/placing, suiting Skallywag Bay best of all, if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

The three horses I've left in to the PACE analysis are the three I'd want to be with. Destiny's Spirit looks the outlier here and least likely to win, but at 16/1 with Skybet paying three places must be worth a small E/W punt.

As for the other pair, they're the market leaders and I know the pace says Skallywag Bay should make all and win, I just think that Alpine Girl's C&D win last time out might just edge it for her here. Either way Alpine Girl at 9/4 and Skallywag Bay at 7/2 would be my two for the reverse forecast/exacta.

Racing Insights, Saturday 17/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a stack of qualifiers for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Chester
  • 3.05 York
  • 3.10 Hexham
  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.20 Hexham
  • 5.55 Leicester

Now, two of our free races from Hexham also contain runners from my TJC qualifiers, but the free list has a Class 1 race that it would be rude to ignore, so we're going back to the Knavesmire (where my 1-2-3 finished 3-1-2 for a £170 trifecta and I'd a couple of E/W successes) for a tilt at the Listed Grand Cup Stakes. Your cards have it as the 3.05 York, a 7-runner flat contest for horses aged 4 and over who will tackle the left-handed mile and three quarters on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...

...they might well be right, of course, but (a) that's not always the case and (b) we might still find something here...

ROBERTO ESCOBARR has 3 wins and 2 further places from ten starts on the Flat and landed this very race two years ago. His best result to date is a Group 3 win on his last outing, but that means he now concedes 5lbs to the boys and 10lbs to the girls here, making life tough.

ISRAR has 3 wins and 3 places from 9 and was narrowly beaten in a Newbury Group 3 last time out, when headed on the line in the Aston Park stakes four weeks ago. There was no disgrace in getting caught by a typical flying Frankie Dettori finish after a 196-day layoff and he should strip fitter here slightly down in grade.

OUTBOX is a useful Class 2 (or lower) handicapper, but a win and two places from 14 efforts at class1 speaks for itself, as does a current losing streak of eleven races stretching back a week shy of two years.

QUICKTHORN stays all day, as shown when he landed the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup here in August of last year, finishing 14 lengths clear after racing 2m½f. He hasn't quite hit those heights since, but was only three lengths down over course and distance in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup last month, despite being hampered late on and coming off a 31-week absence. Like Israr, should come on for the run and also down further in grade.

RHYTHMIC INTENT has won just 4 of 29 so far and was only 4th of 8 at Ascot last time out. Admittedly he wasn't beaten by far, but that was a Class 3 handicap, he's winless in six and now makes a Class 1 debut. Surely he's only here to try and beat a couple for some prize money or to keep stable mate Quinault (runs in the 3.45 race) company in the van.

CHING SHIH gets a 5lb allowance as one of two 4yo fillies in the race and she won a Class 4 Novice event on her second outing way back in October 2021. Only four races since then, all at Class 1 (a Gr 3 followed by 3 x Listed) and she's never looked like winning although she did stay on well last time out when upped in trip to 1m4f, finishing 3rd of 9 and might (I did say might) actually benefit from another two furlongs here (siblings are 12 from 87 over 1m5f to 1m7f on the Flat over the last three seasons), but not one you'd expect to be winning here.

DIVINE JEWEL is like, most Frankel offspring, useful and consistent. She hasn't been out of the first three home in any of her six starts so far (232122), but that's all at Classes 4 & 5 (C5 for the sole win) and you've got to expect this to be far too tough. I'd say she's the worst of the bunch, but her 5lb weight allowance might drag her into the pack.

At this point, I'd be inclined to agree with the bookies about it being a two-horse race, but let's see if Instant Expert can give us a way in...

...where the favourites don't actually stand out too much. Israr lacks relevant experience and Quickthorn has just about done enough to avoid being in the red and it's top weight Roberto Escobarr who looks best suited if it wasn't for the weight penalty for his LTO success, whilst the place stats make all of them look better apart from poor Ching Shih...

As a statistician, I struggle with the concept of arguing against proven data, but sometimes (rarely), I have to ask myself to check twice and this is one of those occasions. Check out the draw data for races here at York over 1m4f and beyond on good to firm ground...

Surely there can't be that much of an advantage in being drawn highest in a small field over such long races? Yet even the stall-by-stall analysis says there is...

...suggesting that three of the outsiders, Ching Shih, Rhythmic Intent and Outbox might have some form of advantage here. This might sound dangerous/controversial, but I'm exercising my own judgement/interpretation here and I'm ignoring that data, because even if that trio are helped by the draw, I don't think they're good enough to make full use of it! Personally, I think race tactics (ie pace) and actually class/ability will come to the forefront here.

Regarding pace, those 38 races above don't really show a pace bias either (wow, I'm not getting much help from the data today!), aside from saying that racing just behind the leader(s) haven't fared as well as other running styles, which based on the following...

...might put Israr at a disadvantage behind Quickthorn.

Summary

Sadly, at this point I'm going to tell you what you probably already know from my opening gambit that...it's a two-horse race here between Israr and Quickthorn with Roberto Escobarr not quite as good as them, but much better than the rest...and that's about the sum of it. Of the favs, I prefer the 15/8 Quickthorn over the 7/4 Israr, but it's not a race I'd want to throw much money at.

Roberto should grab third, unless the weight gets to him and with Ching Shih carrying some 10lbs less, she might be the one who comes from the back to challenge him. That said, we're only getting paid on two places here, so maybe it's a "grab a brew and put your feet up" kind of race after all.

Have a great weekend everyone and Happy Fathers Day to all of you dads.

Racing Insights, Friday 16/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded just one 'possible'...

...but I can always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 York
  • 6.10 Fontwell
  • 6.15 Fairyhouse
  • 6.35 Cork
  • 7.45 Cork
  • 7.50 Goodwood

...and we'll head to the Knavesmire for the first from the 'free' list, the 1.50 York, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap for apprentice jockeys. The trip is a left-handed 1m2½f on good to firm ground, that will be a little slower in places and here's how they'll line up...

Steady improver Westernesse was a winner last time out, as were Menelaus and Showmedemoney, but Jean Baptiste, Aqwaam, Highwaygrey and Poet's Dawn are winless in 10, 6, 7 & 5 races respectively.

Plenty of class movers here, as only Pledge of Honour & raced at Class 4 LTO. Highwaygrey drops down two classes here, whilst Jean Baptiste, Solanna & Poet's Dream are all down 1. Our trio of LTO winners, Westernesse, Menelaus & Showmedemoney are all up a level, as is bottom weight Dougies Dream despite three poor efforts at Class 5 in the last couple of months.

Menelaus wears a visor for the first time today and we should have no rustiness issues here, with all ten having raced in the last five weeks, with Menelaus seen most recently when winning at Thirsk 11 days ago, getting off the mark at the tenth time of asking.

That win was over a mile, so he's one of just four (inc Westernesse, Aqwaam & Dougies Dream) yet to win over a similar trip to this one, whilst Poet's Dawn is the only previous York winner, albeit over 1m1f three years ago!

That win is shown below on a fairly sad-looking Instant Expert graphic that contains many warning bells...

...and those warnings are..

  • GOING - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
  • CLASS - Pledge of Honour & Aqwaam (note that Jean Baptiste has won a Class 2 and that Pledge of Honour, Highwaygrey & Poet's Dream have won at Class 3)
  • COURSE - Despite his win here, Poet's Dawn is just 1 from 14 at this venue and that's not good enough
  • DISTANCE - Jean Baptiste & Poet's Dawn
  • WEIGHT - Solanna is 10lbs higher than his win two starts ago and 15lbs higher than his win three starts ago, but he is down in class and by 2lbs from LTO.

Based on everything to this point, I going to omit Jean Baptiste, Poet's Dawn and Dougies Dream before I even look at the field's place stats...

...where Aqwaam looks weak at Class 4 and Highwaygrey looks a steady performer, but there's nothing here that says back or dismiss to any of them yet.

Our Draw Analyser says that past similar races ie

...don't actually show a massive draw bias and they really shouldn't over 10.5 furlongs if truth be told, but stalls 3 & 7 have fared (abnormally?) well...

...so that might offer a little encouragement to the likes of Solanna and Aqwaam, whilst running those 80 races above through our Pace Analyser, it would seem that the best approach here would be to get tucked in behind the leader(s) in a prominent position...

Hold-up types fare next best to prominent runners, but leaders have struggled to see the job out to a satisfactory conclusion, which might not bode well for likely front-runner Showmedemoney...

...whilst Highwaygrey and Pledge of Honour would appear to be the ones being waited with.

Summary

The one ticking most boxes for me so far is Westernesse, whose form of 2223231 over the last year has shown steady improvement, culminating in a first win at Pontefract recently. the way he stayed on that day suggests that the extra furlong or so here should be right up his street and although he's the early (only bet365 were open at 4.15) 3/1 favourite, he should be the one to beat here, especially as the second and third from his win have both won at Class 4 since and although he's up 3lbs, his jockey Mark Winn (in decent nick too at 7 from 24 over the last fortnight) takes the same amount off, so it's Westernesse for me today.

As for the placers, you can make a case for most of  the six of them and I think Menelaus is probably the 'best of the rest' and handy for forecast purposes, but definitely too short for me to go E/W at 7/2! E/W options for me here would probably end up being runners like Pledge of Honour and/or Highwaygrey at 9's and 12's respectively.

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 15/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.20 Newbury
  • 2.50 Newbury
  • 4.30 Newbury
  • 5.10 Yarmouth
  • 5.50 Worcester
  • 7.40 Haydock

...from which, we'll look at the 4.30 Newbury, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good ground...

Only Shobiz won last time out and since making the frame without winning his first five races, has now won three from seven. Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike also have at least one win in their recent form-line.  Shobiz also benefits from a drop in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous, whilst Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class. Dakota Power actually drops two classes for his handicap debut some 558 days after his last outing when last home of three at Wolverhampton, making this also his turf debut!

Elsewhere Capote's Dream adds a first-time tongue to go with his cheekpieces, American Star wears blinkers for the second time and it's a third run in cheekpieces for Magnificence, who is the only one in the field yet to win at this type of trip. American Star has won here over 7f, whilst Shobiz won over course and distance last time out.

All bar the returning Dakota Power have raced in the last two months with Magnificence having ran as recently as last Friday, when a half length runner-up at Haydock. He goes off the same mark here, which according to Instant Expert is 3lbs higher than his last win and the weights show three runners well below their last winning marks...

I've left the above as Flat and A/W just to show turf debutant Dakota Power's decent A/W stats, but when we look at just Flat records...

...the ones of immediate interest would be American Star, Shobiz, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse in card order. Jack's Point hasn't fared well at this trip with 1 win from 9, but he is only 1 from 26 on the Flat overall, so he'd not be one to hang your hat on anyway. Elsewhere, there are no real alarms ringing and there's not much above to cause me to discard any others just yet.

In terms of draw stats, the bare data suggest those drawn lowest would have the upper hand...

...but there really should be too much of a draw bias over a straight 6f here and the PRB data suggests a more even spread of results...

There is a slight drop off for stall 10 in the 10-runner races, but otherwise, there's not a great deal of difference between 'best' and 'worst' stalls 2 and 9, which then suggests that as with many straight sixes on decent ground, it'll all be about pace but those races used above for the draw data aren't entirely conclusive, but you don't want to be backing a hold-up horse if you've ideas about winning here...

Leaders tend to hang on for a place, but only 29.2% of those making the frame go on to win and it's a similar return for prominent running placers, but almost 70% of those making the frame from mid-division go on to win, whilst again hold-up horses fare poorly. Based on how this field have approached their most recent outings...

...you'd have concerns about Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse trying to make up ground in what might well be a falsely-run race. American Star and Dakota Power might be the ones to take it on, whilst it could well be Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence in that prized mid-division position.

Summary

From above, the positives... Shobiz won last time out; Dakota Power, Treacherous, Sarah's Verse & Strike all have a fairly recent win on their form lines. Shobiz drops in class here, as do American Star, Capote's Dream and Treacherous. American Star is a course winner over 7 and Shobiz has own over track and trip. Shobiz, Strike and Magnificence might get an advantage racing in mid-division.

The negatives... American Star, Capote's Dream, Jack's Point and Magnificence are without a recent win. Dakota Power hasn't raced on turf before and hasn't raced for a very longtime. Magnificence, Sarah's Verse and Strike are all up one class and the former is the only one without a win at this trip, whilst Jack's Point has a really poor Flat record. Treacherous, Capote's Dream and Sarah's Verse look like struggling from a hold-up position.

And from all that, Shobiz is the one whose positives far outweigh any possible negatives, which would explain why he's the early 5/4 favourite. I'm not really a fan of backing horses at that kind of price, but he really should be winning this quite cosily. Second favourite Magnificence ran well last week off today's mark, but is up in class and has been out of sorts for a long time.

Only three horses, aside from Shobiz emerge from the analysis slightly in credit after taking the negatives from the positives and they are American Star, Treacherous and Strike. If i'm honest, I don't see of them really challenging the winner, but all have a shout of making the frame, if things fall their way, of course.

Treacherous is too short to go E/W at 11/2, but American Star (12/1) & Strike (14/1) might be worth a small punt here.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/06/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 4.50 Haydock
  • 5.00 Yarmouth
  • 8.30 Limerick

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and the first of the two jumps contests looks the best on paper of all the featured races, so we're off to Devon for the 3.40 Newton Abbot, a 7-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Top weight Light n Strike and bottom weight Elios D'or both won last time out, Clear The Runway has won five of his last six, but Geronimo's apparent good run of results all came in 2 and 3-runner races! Kauto The King won this race last year and won again next time out, but hasn't won any of seven since.

Geronimo is up a level here, as is Elios D'or and whilst it looks like Noahthirtytwored is up three classes here, that's from an A/W outing, but he's still up two grades here, as is Kauto the King, whilst Magic Saint really is up three classes.

Last year's winner Kauto The King wears cheekpieces for the first-time and it's a debut in blinkers for Magic Saint today in a field where all seven have already won over a similar trip and Noahthirtytwored joins Kauto The King as a course and distance winner.

Most of these have raced in the last three weeks, but it's five weeks rest for Geronimo which shouldn't be an issue, but Clear The Runway might well need the run on his first outing for almost eight months.

Instant Expert's NH stats say that all bar one have already won a chase on similar going to today and that four of the field are previous Class 2 chase winners...

...and this points towards Light n Strike, Clear The Runway, Geronimo and Kauto The King has being best suited to the task, whilst the place stats bring Elios D'or into the equation...

I wouldn't rule any of them out just on those two graphics, but I want to look at a couple of interesting weight differences. Magic Saint did indeed win a Class 2 handicap chase off 152 at Cheltenham back in November 2020 and was plying his trade at Gr 3 until Jan '22 before he went hunter chasing this year. He did win off 137 in March, so is still technically 10lbs below his last win. As for Noahthirtytwored, he did win relatively recently off 109 and the subsequent 13lb rise seems excessive.

Kauto The King won this last year and the report of the race reads..."raced in 3rd, awkward and pushed along after 9th, went 2nd 4 out, ridden before 2 out, led last, driven out to win by 1.5 lengths"... which is pretty congruent with what our Pace Analysis suggests...

Those racing furthest forward have the best chances of winning/placing and those chances diminish more the further down the field you position yourself, which might not be the best news for the likes of Noahthirtytwored...

...although he did lead last time out.

Summary

If truth be told, there's no real standout performer here and it might well be a process of elimination.

From the racecard, I've doubts about Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Kauto the King stepping up two classes or more after defeats. Clear The Runway might need a run and was well beaten last time out. Geronimo's better runs have come in really small fields and Kauto The King is winless in seven.

Instant Expert wasn't great for Magic Saint, Noahthirtytwored and Elios D'or as potential winners, although the latter has good place numbers. Noahthirtytwored also seemed up against it on weight, but Magic Saint has won off far higher marks than this one.

And when it came to pace, none of them are out and out hold up types, so I wouldn't actually be too concerned about any of them from that perspective.

Now I've written the above, the only one I've no real qualms with looks like top weight and LTO winner Light n Strike, which is probably why he's the 5/2 favourite here. The others with fewer red marks by their names on my jotter are Geronimo and Elios D'Or and one of those pair might well make the frame too. The former will be more attractively priced, of course, but the latter is a regular placer. Elsewhere, Magic Saint would be a huge danger if running to the levels he's capable of, but something just doesn't seem right with him.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/06/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.50 Brighton
  • 2.10 Salisbury
  • 2.30 Southwell
  • 3.00 Southwell
  • 4.40 Salisbury
  • 5.10 Salisbury

...and the highest rated from those two sets of races is the last of the free ones, the 5.10 Salisbury, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Three of these (Spirit of the Bay, Alba Longa & Spring Fever all won last time out, whilst Haughty is the only maiden in the field, albeit off just five starts. half of the field ran at this Class 4 level last time out, but Timeless Melody drops in from Class 2 and haughty is down one class, whilst Alba Longa and Spring fever both step up one level.

In a fairly inexperienced field, half of them (Timeless Melody, Alba Longa, Spring Fever & Gentle Whinny) run in handicap company for just the second time and none of the field have won here at Brighton before. That said, only Totnes has actually been here before! Spirit of the Bay, Spring Fever and Dayzee have at least won over this trip.

Bottom weight Haughty might need the run as she comes off a nine-month break, but her rivals have all race at least once this term. We''re not getting too much from Instant Expert today, as the field only have 51 previous outings between them and top weight Spirit of the Bay accounts for 21 of those races, but let's see what data we do have...

...all fairly self-explanatory and the one catching my eye is Spirit of the Bay, especially from a place perspective. She's top weight and drawn second widest in stall 7 and whilst the draw stats suggest those drawn lowest would fare best, the raw data actually says there's not really a massive bias at play here...

...and that stall 7 has done as well as any other berthing...

So, it's not a long race and the ground is quick with no real draw bias, so PACE might well be the key here and from those races above that we used for the draw data, we see that...

...the further forward you race, the better your chances of winning/making the frame, which based on this field's more recent efforts...

...is the fly in Spirit of the Bay's ointment and the ones best off here are probably the first four named.

Summary

Largely inexperienced horses with little relevant race data. The draw is unlikely to affect the race and there's not actually that much pace early on. Spring Fever looks the most likely winner on form/pace, but at odds of 7/4 to 15/8, I'm not really interested in backing her.

Up to the pace section, I was looking to back Spirit of the Bay to make the frame but the pace stats are troubling. That said, she ran really well at Haydock last time and easily has the best place stats in this field. had she been in 8/1 to 11/1 kind of price, I'd probably have left her alone, based on pace as she might need the contest to fall apart ahead of her, but at 14/1 I've been tempted into an E/W tickle.

Racing Insights, Monday 12/06/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.30 Lingfield
  • 7.00 Pontefract
  • 7.30 Pontefract
  • 8.10 Windsor
  • 8.40 Windsor

...and on paper, if nothing else, the first of our two Yorkshire races looks the best of the five freebies, so I'm heading about 40 miles East of my house for the 7.00 Pontefract, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed mile and a half on good to firm ground...

The top two in the weights, Matchless and La Pulga both won last time out, as did Carrilgillihy, whilst only Real Terms, Glasses Up and Hezmie are winless in five or more.

None of the field raced at Class 3 LTO, with only top weight Matchless dropping in class. His eight rivals are all up one or two classes here with Carrilgillihy, Cmon Kenny and the out of form Hezmie the ones moving up from Class 5.

Carrilgillihy is the only one to have won at Ponty before and he's 4 from 4 at the tack including 3 over course and distance. Matchless, Zealandia and Real terms have at least won ove rthe trip before now.

The entire field have raced in the last four weeks with La Pulga rested for just four days after a convincing win over 1m5f at Hamilton last week and we've no new headgear/equipment etc to discuss. In fact, Zealandia wears cheekpieces for the third time and he's the only with any headgear in a field that, according to Instant Expert, contains half a dozen good to firm winners and just three former Class 3 victors...

Although there's not a great deal of green there, the only real worry is that 2/20 Class 3 record for Glasses Up. Mind you, he is on a 23-rce losing strak, so he's unlikely to be a player here over a track/trip that doesn't have as big a draw bias as you'd initially think...

Stall 5 has done particularly (but anomalously) well, but  and draw in the first seven stalls would be fine. This, of course, isn't great news for Zealandia & Matchless and it's the lower half of the draw (1-5) that have filled the places most often, but here at Ponty, feature of the day, PACE, often rules the race and from those races above...

...and although hold-up horses have almost won their fair share of races, the front half of the pack is where you'd want to be and based on this field's recent running styles, this is where I'd draw my line on PACE...

And when we combine both pace and draw stats and put them on our heat map, we get...

Summary

From the above data, it's Carrigillihy for me here today. He won last time out and is only up 3lbs, he's 4 from 4 here (inc 3 at C&D) and shows up best on pace/draw. He's currently 7/1 with a few firms and that looks massive and could even be an E/W option, especially with Sky who are paying four places again.

As for the places, they could well go to La Pulga (10/3 fav) and Matchless (13/2), the latter would be shorter if he had a better draw, having won LTO but now dropping in class, he could be dangerous here.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 10/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

..plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.55 Punchestown
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.00 Bangor
  • 5.00 Beverley
  • 6.00 Punchestown
  • 7.30 Chepstow

...and from all the above, we have one from the TJC Report running in one of our free races, so let's head to North Wales where local hero Donald McCain and his 8 yr old Heartbreak Kid are likely to be popular in the 4.00 Bangor, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase taking in 15 fences over a left-handed 2m4½f on good ground and here's how they'll line up...

Featured horse Heartbreak Kid is our only LTO winner, having broken a 7-race losing spell by winning here over course and distance three weeks ago. Norley has won two of his last three and is 3 from 6 and Midnight Jewel has won 6 of his last 12, whilst Joly Maker is 3 from 8, but Ridgeway has won just one of his last nine. Yggdrasil and Fire Away, however are winless in six and seven respectively.

Yggdrasil makes a first appearance for David Pipe just seven weeks after his final outing for Jane Williams and he wears blinkers for the first time too. That seven week break is the longest of all the runners here with the remainder having raced in the last 12 to 26 days.

Only Norley, Fire Away and Ridgeway have yet to win here over course and distance, but the first two of that trio have at least won over a similar trip in the past. Instant Expert then tells me that only Yggdrasil is winless in good ground NH contests, albeit from just two efforts and we learn that all of them have won at least one Class 4 contest (Yggdrasil and Fire Away have both won at C3 too)...

Fire Away's recent poor form is reflected by a 17lb drop in weight from his last win and although Heartbreak Kid is up 5lbs from his recent win here, he's still 4lbs lower than his Uttoxeter victory last year and both Norley and Midnight Jewel have greater gaps back to their last winning mark that the kid's 5lbs.

Joly Maker's form on good ground and at Class 4 is wretched at 2/21 and 1/15 and his sole Class 4 win came on heavy ground, although that was only three starts ago. Midnight Jewel's best form has been at Class 5, but his record under today's 3lb claimer Lilly Pinchin reads 1211F24, so they clearly get on well.

The above data is for all NH races, so let's have quick look at their chasing records...

...where there are some really good numbers, especially from Heartbreak Kid and Midnight Jewel. Only the going blots the record of Yggdrasil and Norley and these four look like the main contenders here and three of them look like they'll be the ones setting the tone of the race...

...whilst Norley will be waited with. That said, the approach to a contest like this rarely boils down to pace, as there's little bias if any at play in this type of contest...

I know it looks like mid-div runners do really badly, but the sample size is so small that had two more runners won, they'd be at 17.4% up with the others, so I'm not ruling any out here on pace, but I am purely focusing on the four better runners from Instant Expert.

Summary

I've already cast Fire Away, Ridgeway and Joly Maker aside for reasons that will have become obvious earlier on, but I need to jettison one of my shortlist to leave me with my 1-2-3 and the unlucky one here is going to be Yggdrasil. He's sure to improve under David Pipe, but that might take a little more time and his form is the worst of my final four, so my top three are (alphabetically) Heartbreak Kid, Midnight Jewel & Norley.

Heartbreak Kid won LTO after a cold spell and although up 5lbs is still 4lbs lower than a win from last year. He won by 6 lengths here over course and distance LTO and that could have been a much bigger margin, such was the way he put the race to bed late on. Trainer & Jockey have excellent individual and joint records here and that C&D win will have given the horse vital experience.

Midnight Jewel is 211F2 over fences and was contesting the lead at the last when he fell. He's solid at this level and gets on really well with today's jockey. Had a pipe-opener over hurdles recently after a break of 196 days and should be fighting fit here today.

Norley won back to back Class 4 handicaps over similar trips to this one inside ten days in April, one over hurdles and then his first chase success. That got him walloped with a 9lb rise next/last time out, when he was only 3rd of 5 here over course and distance three weeks ago, when 10.75 lengths behind Heartbreak Kid.

The Kid beat Norley last time out by almost 11 lengths and although Norley is now 6lbs better off, I don't see him overturning that result, especially as the winner seemed to have plenty in hand. Midnight Jewel is likely to make this more of a contest, though and I don't see there being too much between him and Heartbreak Kid, so they'd be my 1-2 with Norley third best of the trio.

Heartbreak Kid should be winning this, but if he's not on his game like he wasn't for the fifteen months between his last two wins, incurring some heavy losses along the way, he could get turned over here. From the limited odds available at 4.45pm on Friday, Heartbreak Kid was the 15/8 favourite with Bet365 offering 9/2 against Midnight Jewel and I don't think the horses are that far apart, so whilst the Kid should win, the value call here is Midnight Jewel.

Racing Insights, Friday 09/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for this Friday...

...but thankfully I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.50 Market Rasen
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 4.55 Bath
  • 6.15 Clonmel
  • 7.35 Goodwood
  • 8.10 Goodwood

...and the first of those 'free' races looks the best standard on paper, so we're off to Lincolnshire for the 2.50 Market Rasen, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m5½f (after a +216 yard rail adjustment!) on good ground...

As ever, I'll approach this in the same way I taught my children to solve maths problems : list the details you already know! And for us that means taking the data presented to us on the racecard, starting with FORM...

...where King Alexander comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst Mullinaree completed that feat last time out and now seeks a fourth win on the bounce. Elsewhere Hang In There has 5 wins and two runner-up finishes from his last nine runs and only three (Luttrell Lad, Celestial Horizon and Didtheyleaveuoutto) are on long losing runs, having lost their last 11, 7 and 16 races respectively!

The next thing I consider is CLASS and only four of these (Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds, Impulsive One & Luttrell Lad) raced at this Class 2 level LTO witht he first named a runner-up at Aintree in a better race than this. Of the other seven, only The Wounded Knee drops in class, after being pulled up in a Grade 2 Novice hurdle at Kelso three months ago, whilst Celestial Horizon, Didtheyleaveuoutto and Sacre Coeur all step up from Class 3 and with Celestial Horizon and Didtheyleaveuoutto both being on lengthy losing runs, it's tough to see the step up in class helping them here. Mind you, it could be worse, because King Alexander, Mullinaree and Runswick Bay are all up two classes, but at least that first pair are in good form.

At this point, I then like to check if there's ANYTHING NEW going on with the runners that might affect their performance and there's a fair bit here, as Impulsive One, The Wounded Knee and Sacre Coeur are all making debuts for their new yards and it'll be just the second handicap outing for The Wounded Knee, as it will be for King Alexander, who is 2 from 2 since a wind op, a fact that will hearten connections of Sacre Coeur and Runswick bay as those horses now run for the first time since their own surgeries. Slightly less invasive for Luttrell Lad, though, as he just has a first-time tongue tie in place.

COURSE/DISTANCE form is very important too and Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds and Luttrell Lad have all won won here before (in a 2m6½f chase, 2m5f hurdle and a 2m1f bumper respectively), whilst Hang In There, Earlofthecotswolds, Impulsive One, King Alexander and Runswick Bay have all won over a similar trip to this one.

And the last thing I tend to look at on the racecard is the number of DAYS SINCE LAST RUN, as we don't really want rusty horses coming off long layoffs or those turned back out too quickly and we thankfully have neither here. Sacre Coeur and The Wounded Knee have been rested for 99 and 97 days respectively, but that's not excessive, whilst all their rival have had at least a couple of weeks' rest to freshen up.

I would then turn to the excellent INSTANT EXPERT feature for some some more data and as you'll see below, some of these have got some decent NH numbers behind them and Sacre Coeur is the only one yet to win on good ground (her only win was on soft ground three starts ago). Five of this field have already won a Class 2 contest (six have actually won at Class 1!) and only Celestial Horizon has yet to score over a trip of 2m4f to 2m6f...

...and the traffic light system used above should be pretty self-explanatory, but the rating column might not. Essentially T =  today's official rating ie a horse's mark and L is the runner's last winning mark and the standout figure is that 21lb difference for The Wounded Knee, who won a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth off a mark of 108 nine months ago, but is now rated at 129, which looks punitive to me. Didtheyleaveuoutto may have won twice at this grade, but a 20% strike rate isn't good and allied to his recent poor form and a 1in 7 record at similar trips, you'd be brave to back him here.

Based on everything I've put down so far, these are now the runners that I'd want to choose from...

...and I'd then focus on handicap hurdle form...

...and eliminate Runswick Bay from my list. The in-form pair of King Alexander and Mullinaree are untried at class/trip, as both step up in grade here and whilst they're definite contenders here, it's the top pair on the card catching the eye from Instant Expert. From here, we normally then look at the draw, the pace stats and how they work together, but there is no draw in an NH contest, of course, so let's head directly to the PACE data we hold under in our Pace Analyser tool...

...which says that similar races here in the past have been most beneficial to front-runners and that blindly backing known front-runners could turn a profit. Known hold-up types are generally to be avoided here and based off recent outings this wouldn't seem to apply to my 'final five'...

Summary

King Alexander, Mullinaree and Hang In There bring the best form to the table, but the first pair are both up two grades, whilst the latter has scored at both track and trip, albeit on different days! Hang In There also caught the eye on Instant Expert, along with Earlofthecotswolds and it is this pair who seem best suited by the pace profile required here. All of which suggests that Impulsive One is the most vulnerable of my five and that I prefer Hang In There and Earlofthecotswolds over the LTO winners King Alexander and Mullinaree.

Hang In There makes more appeal to me as the winner here based on recent form and the 6/1 offered by Hills at 4.45pm looks a bit big, so I'd take that. Earlofthecotswolds is 15/2, which is probably about right and is borderline E/W territory for me, but he has a great chance of making the frame and if I had to choose between King Alexander and Mullinaree, I'd probably side with the former, King Alexander, who is the early 11/4 fav. His win LTO was more impressive than Mullinaree's and the latter is now worse off at the weights. I'm leaving him out of my 1-2-3, but I reckon he won't be far away.

 

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