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Racing Insights, Thursday 08/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.50 Ffos Las
  • 3.25 Ffos Las
  • 5.15 Hamilton
  • 6.30 Leopardstown
  • 8.50 Chelmsford

...from which, we're off to the Speedway in Essex for the 8.50 Chelmsford, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies' A/W handicap over a left-handed 7f on standard going polytrack...

My initial reaction was that this might well be a three-horse race between (alphabetically at this stage, of course!) Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested, but let's see if the data we have at our disposal backs up or disproves my gut feeling.

The last named of my trio is the only LTO winner in the field and has two wins and a place from her last three outings, as does my first-named Anificas Beauty, Miss Sarajevo was a winner five starts ago, but the remainder are winless in at least five or even eleven in the case of maiden Topo Chico.

Lightly raced Bell Song has been third in each of her last two starts and as one of five (plus Invested, Miss Sarjevo, Kynsa & Topo Chico) three year olds in the race, she'll get a useful 10lb weight allowance here. All bar Exigency (who drops down a class) ran at this level last time out, so they should now know what to expect, but it is a first handicap run for both Bell Song & Kynsa and just a second for Invested after scoring on hcp debut just over five weeks ago and she now wears cheekpieces for the first time.

Anificas Beauty and Miss Sarajevo have both won over course and distance, whilst the only other two previous course winners are also the only other 7f winners with Nikki's Girl wining over 6f here and then over 7f at Leicester and Lingfield (AW), whilst Invested also won here over 6f and was a 7f winner at Yarmouth last time out.

The afore-mentioned Nikki's Girl might well need the run here as she turns out for the first time since mid-October, but all her rivals have been seen in the last six weeks.

Feature of the day Instant Expert shows two of my chosen trio in a very good light, but Bell Song is a three-race maiden, despite making the frame twice in April, so her win line is all red, as it is for half of the field...

That might initially ring a few alarm bells, notably for Kodias Sangarius (class), Nikki's Girl (class), Hot Chesnut (class/distance) and Topo Chico (class/distance), but Anificas Beauty & Invested do catch the eye, as does Miss Sarajevo in fairness. The place stats will undoubtedly show some of these in a better light, because i already know that bottom-weight Topo Chico is better than her win stats might suggest with six places from her nine A/W starts...

...from which, I'd only really be interested in the following...

Those numbers speak for themselves and I won't patronise you by going through them here. Interestingly, we have two low drawn runners in Invested and Topo Chico plus the four widest/highest drawn of all, so i need to dig out the draw stats to see if any of the half-dozen might be afforded an advantage from the off...

But that's not as clear cut as it might at first seem, because if we isolate the individual stalls...

...the stats for stall 2 are an anomaly in my opinion and without them in the data, the bias is far less pronounced and it's really the pace aspect of this race that will decide the winner in my opinion. Chelmsford is now well known as a front-runners paradise and when we look at the pace profiles of the horses that won those races above in the draw analyisis...

...the win percentages rise almost exponentially, the further forward your horse runs. Hold-up horses fare really badly from both win and place perspectives, mid-division runners win almost twice as often as them and prominent runners slightly more than twice the rate of the mid-divs with leaders scoring almost twice as often as the prominent runners themselves. At other tracks, an IV of 1.41 scored here by the prominent runners would be enough for top ranking, but such is the low strike rate further back, that's not the case here.

So, who might lead them out? Well, according to the field's last few runs...

...I'd say that Anifica's Beauty may try to make all, chased by Invested...

, whilst there's not much between the other four of the shortlisted six...

Summary

I started with three runners who I thought would be the main protagonists ie Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested and of those, Anificas Beauty and Invested have both been very strong throughout the various stages of analysis and with their pace profiles in particular, they're going to be my 1-2.

Bell Song is probably the best of the other shortlisted horses, but you could easily make a case for the other three to steal third spot from the inexperienced 3yr old. Of my 1-2, I'm still along the lines of 'pace wins the race' and so it's Anificas Beauty over Invested here for me.

Sadly (or reassuringly, depending on the state of your glass) the bookies agree with me and have my trio of Anificas Beauty, Bell Song and Invested at 4/1, 4/1 and 7/2 respectively with no other runner shorter than 11/1! So I'll take Anificas Beauty over Invested as my 1-2. Bell Song should complete the tricast/trifecta, but for an E/W option, Topo Chico certainly makes the frame on a regualr basis, she receives weight all round and has a 3lb claimer on board, which makes her a very interesting option at 14/1 E/W with Bet365, as of 5.05pm.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/06/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.00 Newbury
  • 2.35 Newbury
  • 4.00 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Curragh
  • 7.10 Ripon
  • 8.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

The best of the free/TS report races seems to be the one featuring William Haggas' Ecucator on the All-Weather and whilst the field is a bit bigger than I'm generally comfortable with, there's always the prospect of a decent E/W bet with most bookies paying 4 places (Sky go 5, of course!) in the 8.25 Kempton, a 14-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

Second Slip is our only LTO winner, but he hasn't raced in over 21months and might be a little rusty here, as might Winterwatch, Enthrallment, Graphite and Moving Lights after respective breaks of 231, 244, 247 and 312 days, as they take on nine others who have all been seen in the last six weeks.

Form-wise, Educator, Tashi, Winterwatch, Enthrallment and Dal Mallart all made the frame on their last outing, whilst of the 14-strong field only Savvy Knight and Tashi are winless in seven (or 11 in Tashi's case!)

Ten of the field ran at this level when last seen with Dal Mallart stepping up from Class 4 and top-weight Stay Well, Moving Light and Celtic Art all coming down from Class 2. Second Slip had wind surgery during his long lay-off and now ears a tongue-tie for the first time and this will be Enthrallment's first run for Kevin de Foy after leaving Ireland and Dermot Weld behind.

Winterwatch has won here over two miles (on his last A/W run) and over this trip at Catterick, whilst Second Slip, Graphite Savvy Knight, Celtic Art and Neandra also have 1m4f successes under their belts, whilst our two other former course winners, Stay Well and Moving Light have both scored here over track & trip.

Instant Expert then adds to those stats by showing that nine have already raced on standard to slow surfaces, producing wins for four of them and we also have six Class 3 winners on Flat/AW...

The top two on the card are the ones initially catching the eye here, but Winterwatch's two going wins is interesting too and I suspect we'll learn more from the place data...

...from which, I think I want to focus on...

I'm aware that such a brutal cut early on might have cost me the winner or a placer, but in these bigger fields, I only really want horses with relevant past form. This six are spread across the track in stalls 2, 3, 4, 8, 10 & 12 on a track/trip with no huge discernible draw bias...

...although some of the lower drawn horses have fared best...

...which would be better news for Stay Well than it would be for say, Winterwatch.  And as regard for pace, there's very little between the six based on their last four outings...

.and with the whole field's pace scores looking like this...

...we're likely to get a falsely-run race over a course and distance where those brave enough to take it on have done well in the past...

Summary

I pick these races 'blind' and do the analysis as I go along, so I never know where we're going to end up and here we've ended up in the state of inconclusive!  The only LTO winner hasn't run for ages and most of these have a fairly recent win. Instant Expert gave me a shortlist of six based on place form and pace/draw didn't really help us at, so in these cases, you either walk away (smart move) or you use that unquantifiable extra factor : 'gut feeling'

My gut feeling tells me that I want to be with Stay Well and Winterwatch depending on price and that Moving Light from the Shortlist might go off and set the pace and hope to hold on for a top four finish. I'll be back later (just after 3pm now)when there are some odds to look at.

Now approaching 4.30pm and we've got odds from Hills, who have installed Stay Well as the 9/2 favourite and whilst I think he could be the one, I'm not really interested at that price. Winterwatch and Moving Light, however, are at 9's and 12's respectively and could be the E/W play(s) here.

Educator from the TS report is 2nd fav, but has never raced on the A/W, so 11/2 is a bit short there for me, but 8/1 is interesting about the LTO winner Second Slip. Yeah, he's been away for a good while, but his A/W form reads 3121 so he could be another candidate for the frame.

This race could get very interesting in the closing stages, but it's not one to hang your hat (or your wallet!) on.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/06/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...but none of those really stand out, aside from two taking each other on at Leicester.. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.30 Leicester
  • 5.20 Southwell
  • 6.45 Wetherby
  • 7.35 Lingfield

...and as luck would have it, The Shortlist race from Leicester is on our 'free' list, so it'd be rude not to look at the 3.30 Leicester after all! It's a 9-runner (poss E/W options?), Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

Thapa VC is the only LTO winner here, but Maxi Boy, Ernie's Valentine, Makeen, Touchwood and Royal Musketeer all recorded top=three finishes. Thapa VC is 2 from 3 and the only one in the field with a win from their last five outings and is denoted as a fast finisher, but he's also our only class riser.

The top five on the card are all down in class by at least one grade with Golden Spice and Above both dropping down two levels and the former runs for the first time since a wind op, whilst the other Shortlist horse, Amber Island wears first-time cheekpieces and these two from the Shortlist are the only females in the race.

All bar two of the field have raced in the past three weeks, but Golden Spice has had a three month break, whilst Maxi Boy hasn't been seen since mid-September 2021 and may well need the run. Above, Makeen, Thapa VC and Royal Musketeer have all won over 7f elsewhere, but our shortlist horses, Golden Spice & Amber Island are both course and distance winners; Ernie's Valentine has also won here, landing a 5f novice event on debut two years ago.

In addition to the above, Instant Expert tells us that all bar Golden Spice and Above have won on good to firm and that we've five previous Class 4 turf winners...

Maxi Boy who might need the run has yet to win at this trip and Above would prefer to be running on the All-Weather. Makeen's Class 4 form probably looks better from a place perspective, but Royal Musketeer just really looks up against it today. Let's check those place stats, because they suggest that the majority of these would be entitled to at least challenge for a place in the frame...

...Royal Musketeer aside, that is! A slight nagging doubt re: Golden Spice on good to firm ground, but there are some pretty solid place stats here for a race that has previously suited those draw lowest...

...which is another tick for 'form horse' Thapa VC. Those races highlighted above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those racing most prominently...

Unfortunately for Thapa VC, his last four runs suggest that he's likely to be waited with...

...and his last two wins have both been from the back over 7f. He is, however, noted as a fast finisher and closed in quickly enough to win on good to fork last time out, so although his pace profile isn't ideal, he could still win. Conversely Golden Spice looks to have the 'best' pace makeup here, but runs from the widest stall, so she's in a similar dilemma to Thapa VC.

The best pace/draw combination here over 7f at Leicester on good to form ground has actually been a low drawn, mid-divisional runner...

so that's not a million miles from where we've got Thapa VC...

...but Amber Island scores well here in a race where the pace/draw hasn't really benefited any of them.

Summary

There's a lack of pace here and this could lead to a falsely run race with runners waiting for others to make a move and if this happens, it will play right into the hands of the fast finishing Thapa VC. He's won two of his last three, he's won each of his last two over 7f and won both from the back, so connections must be satisfied with his turn of pace late on. He's the only one of the field with any recent winning form and I think he's the one for me here.

He's currently priced at 11/2 with both Hills & Bet365, which seems fair to me. As for the placers, I don't really fancy the shortlist horses Golden Spice and Amber Island nor Maxi Boy, but any of the others could mount a realistic challenge to make the frame. If I was to pick any, I'd want a decent price so I could go E/W and that probably brings me to the 9/1 Touchwood. His pace/draw profile doesn't look good, but he's essentially only one stall away from having the ideal combo and he has ran well enough to finish third twice in the last three weeks.

Racing Insights, Saturday 03/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

30-day overall form...

1-year overall form...

Course 1-year form...

...and course 5-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 12.50 Epsom
  • 1.50 Musselburgh
  • 4.00 Doncaster
  • 5.45 Stratford
  • 6.10 Lingfield
  • 8.00 Tramore

...and although the Epsom 'freebie' is a Group 3 contest, we do have a qualifier from my TJC Report running in a 'free' race, so we're heading twenty miles South East of the Downs for the 6.10 Lingfield, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard polytrack...

Featured horse Citizen General is the only LTO winner in the field, having won here over slightly further (1m5f) three weeks ago, taking his current run to three wins and a runner-up finish from his last five outings. Of his rivals, only Appier had a top 3 finish on their last run and he also won two starts ago. Open Champion, Arcadian Friend and Night Eagle are the others with a win inside their last five runs.

Citizen General is up in class here, as are Nawras, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King, but top-weight Open Champion actually drops down a level here from a ninth place (of 10!) finish at Epsom 39 days ago. That break is the longest of the six to have had a recent run, but Bright Start, Nawras and Arcadian Friend might be a little rusty coming off respective absences of 132, 203 and 255 days.

Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have won at neither track nor trip, but the other six have done both with four (Open Champion, Appier, Arcadian Friend and Crimson King) having won over course and distance at the same time. This will be Nawras' handicap debut after just four stats, whilst it's Liseo's seventh outing, but only his second in a handicap and his first in cheekpieces.

Aside from not winning here or over this trip, Bright Start, Liseo and Nawras have no A/W wins yet, according to Instant Expert...

It turns out that the trio are actually 0 from 20 between them and despite making the frame in 5 of his 10 starts, the winless Bright Start must be vulnerable here and if I was to discard any runners here, if would be the bottom foru on the above graphic, leaving me with (in draw order)...

Arcadian Friend is probably the weakest of the five on that evidence and carrying 10lbs more than his last win might prove difficult here, but he is drawn highest of my quintet for a race that has favoured those drawn highest, especially for the places...

...but as you all probably know, I'm not a massive fan of the school of thought that says the draw can't kill you before you stat over trips like this, so we should focus on tactics/race positioning ie pace and those races above haven't been overly kind to pace-setters or dwellers...

...with those racing just off the pace or in mid-field reaping the most rewards, which might suit the bottom trio on this graphic more than the two above them...

...with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that Open Champion could be well suited here...

Summary

Open Champion looks well placed to bounce back to form after struggling on unsuitably soft ground LTO and he did won over course and distance on his only other previous visit to Lingfield. He's currently priced at 10/1 with Bet365 and I think that's a decent price for an E/W tilt.

I say E/W, because I think featured horse Citizen General and Appier tick more boxes for me based on the evidence/data above and whilst I doubt there'll be much between them, Citizen General won last time out and he won here, so he just edges it for me. The bookies also think it'll be tight and they've gone 10/3 joint favs on the pair.

Good Luck and have a great weekend.

Chris

Racing Insights, Friday 02/06/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.10 Epsom
  • 6.05 Stratford
  • 6.35 Stratford
  • 7.20 Tramore
  • 8.05 Stratford
  • 8.25 Catterick

...the best of which is clearly the Coronation Cup aka the 3.10 Epsom, a 5-runner, Group 1 flat contest for runners aged 4 and over. The trip is a left handed mile and a half on good ground and here's the card...

Only five go to post and you could make a reasonable case for all of them, so let's have a quick look at them...

HURRICANE LANE won the Dante, the Irish Derby and the St Leger last season and won the Gr2 Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket four weeks ago. Loves good ground, has won a couple of times at this trip and is a major contender here.

POINT LONSDALE has won a pair of Gr3 and a pair of Gr2 contests but hasn't quite got his nose in front at Group 1. Steps up to 1m4f for the first time and whilst he is undoubtedly talented, I fear the ground might be too quick for him here on the faster side of good.

TUNNES won the German St Leger and a Munich Group 1 race last autumn and now makes a UK debut 40 days after finishing second in the Gr2 Carl Jaspers Preis at Cologne. This is tougher and he was beaten by more than 3 lengths last time out, despite going off at 9/10.

WESTOVER was third in the Derby here last year before going on to win the Irish version three weeks later. Hasn't been seen in UK/Ireland since flopping in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot last July, but was sixth in the Arc and ran a very good second behind Equinox in the Gr1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan ten weeks ago. Much will depend on which Westover turns up.

EMILY UPJOHN is the only female in the race and she too hasn't been seen for some time, as it's now 230 days since she landed the Gr1 Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot in October. She was unlucky not to win the Oaks here a year ago, going down by just a short head despite stumbling out of the stalls. Her 3lb allowance might be key, because she's a classy filly. Oh, and don't forget the Frankie factor!

Instant Expert only covers UK/Irish form, so we've nothing on Tunnes, but just look how good his rivals have performed under similar conditions...

All three course losers did make the frame and there's very little for me to pick apart here. The three to have tackled this trip have all actually done better over shorter and Point Lonsdale's best form is on soft (or worse) ground, so this might be a bit quick for him in the sunshine.

There's not a huge draw bias here, as you'd probably expect from a small field over a fairly long race...

...although those drawn higher do edge it on place results. Pace, however, is a different story...

Prominent runners fare best, suggesting that leaders get stalked and passed, whilst a hold-up approach is a definite no-no here on the Downs over this trip in a small field. That said, none of the four we have data for are hold-up horses, based on their last four outings...

...but those numbers suggest Point Lonsdale and Westover might fight it out and become vulnerable to being picked off by Hurricane Lane and Emily Upjohn.

Summary

I've disregarded Tunnes because I don't know a great deal about him and I don't think his run last time out was good enough to make him a likely winner here, so I'm down to the four I do have data about.

Point Lonsdale and Westover might do too much early on and become targets and I think the ground will be too quick for the former. Hurricane Lane's past achievements speak for themselves and Emily Upjohn is a really good filly and her 3lbs allowance will be more than useful here, so I'm taking Hurricane Lane to beat Emily Upjohn.

The bookies disagree and they've go Westover as the 9/4 fav, whilst my 1-2 are currently 4/1 and 3/1, but the market isn't always right!

Racing Insights, Thursday 01/06/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 4.55 Fairyhouse
  • 5.05 Roscommon
  • 5.40 Market Rasen
  • 5.50 Carlisle
  • 6.00 Fairyhouse
  • 6.50 Carlisle

If truth be told, I don't particularly like any of the 'free' races, so I'm going off piste by looking at the highest rated flat race of the day, the 4.20 Ripon, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground that will be quicker in places...

Both Pisanello and Cockalorum won last time out and all bar Society Red and Baryshnikov have won at least one of their last six outings, although the latter ran really well to fin.sh third recently in a race we covered in this column. In his favour here, is that he's down in class, as is top weight Imperial Sands, but Cockalorum, Nigwa, Tarbaan and Society Red all step up in grade.

Cockalorum has been off the track the longest, but 42 days is hardly an eternity and shouldn't affect his running here. All bar Imperial Sands, Pisanello and Tarbaan have already scored over course and distance, but the latter has at least won at today's trip, whilst Instant Expert says that all bar Imperial Sands have won on good ground and that only half of the field have scored at Class 3...

...and the inference from above is that we should be focusing our efforts on this group...

...although Cockalorum's 0 from 9 at this grade is a concern, as is Pisanello's 0 from 4 at the trip. That concern re: Pisanello isn't really alleviated by place form either...

...but I won't rule him nor Cockalorum out at this stage. My five runners are spread across the stalls from box 1 to 7 for a track/trip that hasn't really suited those drawn highest...

...whilst the winners of those races above have tended to be those up with the pace...

So, the draw hasn't been too kind to Cockalorum/Nigwa there, but what about the pace? Are any of our five willing to set the fractions here? Well, we can only guess / make a reasoned assumption and to do this, we can look at the field's most recent four races...

...and that's better news for Cockalorum, but not great for Baryshnikov or Pisanello.

Summary

I shortlisted five and none really tick all the boxes for me here. In draw order...

Pisanello is up in class and weight and might get outpaced early on.

Baryshnikov might leave himself too much to do as he did earlier this week, but he did run well when he got going and is now down in class.

Tarbaan is neither here nor there on the above, but looks less exposed under these conditions, will like the ground and the trip and gets weight from most of his rivals. Mid draw & mid-pace, probably more a placer than a winner.

Cockalorum has a poor record at Class 3 and doesn't have the best draw and although he won last time out, is now up in class and weight

Nigwa is second on the shortlist's pace chart, but all three discarded horses will probably be ahead of him in the early stages, he has the worst of the draw of my shortlisted five and if he runs like he did last time, will have to pass most of the field to win.

Honestly, any of the five could win this. Its not a great race, but it's an evenly-matched open contest that even the three discards could run well in.

Do I want to back any of these to win? No, but if I wanted to put a couple of quid down for an interest, I think I'd back Tarbaan at 11/1 E/W and if pushed I'd say Baryshnikov or Pisanello, but without any real conviction.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/05/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Vitralite is of the most immediate interest, whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.40 Brighton
  • 6.25 Nottingham
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 7.00 Ballinrobe
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

I suspect Vitralite will be very popular based on those Shortlist scores, but that might make him shorter than he should be and it might also up the door for some reasonably priced E/W bets in the 8.25 Nottingham, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on show here, but Vitralite is 113 in his last three outings. Eleven eleven won four starts ago, but the rest of the field are winless in five or more. Vitralite is, however, up in class here, as are Bobby Dassler, Eleven eleven, Pysanka, Long Call and Back from Dubai. The last of those stepping up in class is also making a debut for a new yard, as is Tipperary Moon.

Pysanka is running in a handicap for the second time and now wears a visor for the first time, as he seeks a first win. Fellow 4 yr old Marayel is the only class dropper after finishing third last time out, but that was 113 days ago and only Pysanka (131 days) has been off the track longer. The other nine have all raced in the last five weeks.

No previous course winners on display, but Vitralite, Under Fox, Eleven Eleven and Back from Dubai have all won at a similar trip, whilst Instant Expert backs this up and then tells us that there's not much winning form at either going nor class!

...and that we might need to consult place form in the hope of some positivity...

That's a little better but not great, fingers crossed that draw & pace can help us more!

Or perhaps not, for although those drawn highest haven't done brilliantly in similar races, there's not a massive draw bias here...

...as for pace, those races above have favoured those setting the pace...

...which based on recent outings might be good news for Bobby Dassler and possibly Back from Dubai...

...but there's not really much pace in the race.

Summary

This hasn't taken long, has it? Sadly, it's a far poorer race than I thought it might be and there's no mileage in wasting too much time on mediocrity.

Vitralite is probably the least poor runner in the race, so would be favourite almost by default, but he's 8lbs higher than his last win two starts ago and 4lbs higher than when beaten last time out at a lower class, so whilst he may well be the winner, I'm not backing him at 7/4. That's too short for me, but you make your own decisions about that.

He's the form horse albeit at Class 6, Instant Expert didn't help us, nor did the draw, but pace pointed towards Bobby Dassler and Back from Dubai. Bobby Dassler is probably the main threat to Vitralite, but as the 5/1 second favourite, he's too short for me to go E/W. As for Back from Dubai, he'd be an unlikely winner, but is surely better than the eighth place finish on his last run for Roy Bowring. If Kevin Frost can get him running anywhere like he was at nearby Southwell over the winter and you've got an active Paddy Power account, then 14/1 E/W with 4 places might not be the worst bet you've ever made, but the smart money is here is the money you leave in your pocket and walk away.

It's more than fine to consider a race and then not have a bet, in fact we positively encourage it here at Geegeez.

Racing Insights, Monday 29/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.30 Leicester
  • 3.40 Leicester
  • 4.00 Redcar
  • 4.25 Huntingdon
  • 4.30 Ballinrobe

...the best of which looks like being the 4.00 Redcar, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

The bookies seem to think that it's a fairly tight call between five runners, but let's make out own mind up about a field that has two LTO winners in the shape of City Streak (the form horse here) and Pillar of Hope, whilst of their rivals only Cap Francais, Baryshnikov and bottom weight Highwaygrey are winless in at least five.

War In Heaven and City Streak both step up a class here, but Pillar of Hope and Highwaygrey and up two classes here, which can't be good for the latter on a losing run. Conversely, Oviedo is our sole 3yr old and sole class dropper; he's also on handicap debut here. His opening mark of 97 is probably fair, but the 14lb weight allowance should be more than useful here.

All bar Cap Francais, War In Heaven and Oviedo have already won at this trip, but only Pillar of Hope has a Redcar victory on his CV after winning over course and distance last September.

Eight of the nine runner hve already raced this season (inside 52 days), but it's possible that Kitsune Power might be in need of a run after an eight month break since trailing home last of 28 in the Cambridgeshire.

Elsewhere, according to Instant Expert, six of the field have already scored on good to firm ground and three are former Class 2 winners...

Baryshnikov looks vulnerable on good to firm ground, whilst Cap Francais' best work has been at Classes 3 & 4. Even before we look at place form, I prefer the look of others, especially with Cap's 0 from 6 return at the trip. The returning Kitsune Power is 6lbs higher than his last win and he floundered off this mark last time out.

Now for the place stats...

...which also do little for bottomweight Highwaygrey and I think I'm going to need persuasion on pace and draw to look twice at him, Baryshnikov, Cap Francais or Kitsune Power. Which brings us neatly to the draw and having looked at past similar contests, I'm not convinced that the draw alone could make or break a runner's chances...

.and that it is the following pace data that should define a contest here at Redcar...

Leader win more often (2.5 times the expected) and make the frame more often than the other three running styles. Prominent runners just about achieve par score, but anything further back in the pack is going to struggle. Cue 'feature of the day' the racecard pace tab...

...which suggests the pace in the race is going to come from the inside four stalls, particularly from War In Heaven.

Summary

War In Heaven is sure to try and win this from the front, but he's on a mark that's too high for him, he hasn't raced on turf since last September (10 starts ago) and has yet to win on the Flat and I doubt he's winning here. Next off the rank for pace is likely to be Pillar of Hope, who comes here in good nick and is only up 2lbs for a win last time out. That would normally stand him in good stead, but he did only win by a head and it was down at Class 4. His yard/jockey won this race last year, but they might have to settle for the places here.

Which brings us to City Streak, the form horse who has eight successive top 3 finishes over the last year and three weeks, including two wins from the last five and impressed last time out by managing to win at Chester, not only from stall 8 but also from a poor field position and I have to agree with the market, who have him as the 7/2 favourite to win. He'd be my pick here.

Pillar of Hope (above) has a great chance of making the frame, but 5/1 isn't E/W territory for me and I see challenges coming for him from the likes of Turntable and Oviedo with that weight allowance. The bookies have spotted Oviedo and have him at 4/1, so no E/W bet for me there either, but both Bet365 & 888Sport have Turntable at 11/1 and he might just be the E/W punt here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 27/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.55 Curragh
  • 2.10 York
  • 3.30 Haydock
  • 3.55 Cartmel
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 4.40 Chester

So, I've seven races from the TJC report and six 'free' ones and no duplicates! In whuich case, I'll bow to class and go with the highest rated race of that baker's dozen and have a look at the the 3.30 Haydock, a 14-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here's how they line up...

Surprisingly for a Group 2 race, only one runner, Happy Romance, was a winner last time out, but Annaf is 3 from 5, Live In The Dream's last three results were 112, Mibaahy is 3 from 5, Raasel is 2 from 6, Royal Aclaim is 3 from 5, Sandbeck is 2 from 5 and 3 from 7, The Platinum Queen is 2 from 4 and 3 from 6 , whilst Dramatised is 2 from 3 and I think I already want to narrow the field down to this more manageable group of runners, as follows...

Annaf is noted as a fast finisher, Sandbeck wears cheekpieces for just the second time and The Platinum Queen runs for Roger Varian for the first time since leaving Richard Fahey. All nine runners have won over this trip at least once before with both Raasel and Sandbeck scoring over course and dsitance.

Five of the nine have already had a run in the last five weeks, but it's a seasonal re-appearance for The Platinum Queen, Dramatised, Mitbaahy and Royal Aclaim, who have been off the track for 204, 204, 237 and 258 days respectively. Raasel is the oldest of this group at 6yrs of age, whilst The Platinum Queen and Dramatised are both 3 yr olds.

Instant Expert tells me that six of the nine have won on good to firm ground already and that five are previous Class 1 winners on turf. We also see that aside from the course and distance winners, two others have been to Haydock before and that Annaf's previous success over 5f wasn't on grass...

With one win and six unplaced efforts from seven runs on good to firm, I fear this might be too quick for Happy Romance, whose best form is on good/good to soft ground. Mitbaahy has at least made the frame in two of three defeats on this going. As for class, Annaf is unplaced in both C1 outings and Sandbeck is unplaced in all three and this is shown in the place stats as follows...

And at this point, I'm now discarding Annaf, Happy Romance and Sandbeck to leave me with the following in draw order...

I actually think that any of these are more than capable of making the frame here and with most bookies paying four places (Sky pay 5, of course!), I'm hoping to find an E/W bet or two from this group, odds permitting. I've re-arranged the half dozen into draw order, in case past similar contests here at Haydock have favoured a particular part of the draw, so let's check. I opened up the field size and the going parameters to give me more data to work with, but in these, as expected, there's no huge draw bias in a straight 5f here...

...which means that pace may well hold the key as it often does in these sprints. This is how this group have raced in their last four outings...

...and if repeated here, I'd expect The Platinum Queen and Live In The Dream to be contesting things from the start with the likes of Mitbaahy being waited with. If we then look at those races I used for the draw stats, you'll see that Mitbaahy's approach might not be the best here, as hold-up horses fare considerably worse than the other three racing styles...

And at this point, I'd probably omit Mitbaahy from my thoughts.

Summary

I've fairly crudely reduced a 14-runner field quickly down to five that I think could make the frame. I'm not really comfortable with large fields and this is my usual MO in these cases. I'm well aware that I may well have overlooked a winner or placer in the process, but you choose your method in this game!

It's only at this point that I look at the market and this is what I see...

The Platinum Queen 4/1
Dramatised
Royal Aclaim 13/2
Live In the Dream 13/2
Raasel 14/1

Sadly, I've got four of the top five in the market (I've only missed Twilight Calls), but Raasel is interesting at 14's. He won a Listed race here over course and distance this time last year and followed it up with a group 3 success at Sandown five weeks later before coming within a neck of landing the Gr2 King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood in late July. He wasn't in the frame in two subsequent Gr1 contests as he closed out his season.

He didn't run on turf again until earlier this month when a decent fourth of fourteen in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and there's every chance he could match or better that result here, so I'm on at 14/1 E/W with Bet365.

As for the winner, I think it might come down to the two longer-priced runners Royal Aclaim and Live In the Dream. The latter will be tough to catch if away sharply and almost stole the palace House from the front on ground that might have been a little soft for him, whilst Royal Aclaim caught the eye as a 3yr old, especially when winning a Listed race at York and if she's race ready, then she's unexposed and might surprise a few of these.

Racing Insights, Friday 26/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including the 6yr old mare Sarah's Verse, whose record at Bath over the last 25 months reads 11132220221!

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 4.50 Curragh
  • 7.15 Limerick
  • 8.25 Pontefract
  • 8.30 Curragh
  • 8.40 Worcester

...but I think I'll have a look at H4C horse Sarah's Verse in the 3.25 Bath, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left-handed 5½f on good to firm ground that is already firm in places and may well quicken up in the sun...

It's a reasonable-looking contest for a lowly Class 5 handicap, featuring two LTO winners in the shape of bottom-weight Redredrobin and Four Adaay. The former has two wins and a runner-up finish from her last five outings, as does top-weight Coup de Force, whilst featured horse Sarah's Verse, Starsong and Vaunted have all won one of their last five.

The latter makes a yard debut for John O'Shea and her 244 day absence since her last run is the longest of the nine runners. Hello Me has been away for 16 weeks and Hersilia for just over six months, but the other half dozen have all raced this month already.

Bottom-weight and LTO winner Redredrobin is up a class here, but escapes a penalty for her win last week (apprentices handicap), hilst both Yard debutant Vaunted and fast finisher Granary Queen both drop a class. Top weight Coup de Force is also noted as a fast finisher and she drops two classes after a defeat by just half a length at Class 3 three weeks ago.

Of Sarah's Verse's excellent Bath record, she is 111322022 over course and distance and none of her rivals have won over today's trip, although Granary Queen has won here at Bath over a mile whilst the returning Vaunted has scored over 5f here, albeit on debut 25 months ago.

Instant Expert then tells us that five of the seven to have raced on good to firm ground have won on it and that half a dozen of this field have won at Class 5 and that a different six have won over 5.5f to 6f...

Hello Me has also won at Class 3, whilst Coup de Force, Granary Queen, Hello Me and Four Adaay have all won at Class 4, but the latter would prefer slower ground or even the A/W although she has placed well on Good to Firm, as you'll see shortly. Granary Queen actually has a better record at Class 4 than Class 5, so I'm not concerned about her not being good enough here. Starsong and Redredrobin, however look like Class 6 horses on past form witht he former only really running well on the A/W.

Overall place form looks like this...

and taking flat races in isolation...

From those flat place settings, these are the ones that would interest me most...

...and strangely they're drawn at the extremes of the stalls in boxes 1, 2 3, 8 & 9, yet despite this not being a straight sprint, the bend doesn't seem to have made a huge draw bias...

...and I'd not be dismissing any of the nine runners purely on draw. What is, however, generally accepted/expected here at Bath is that the quicker you're away from the gates, the better, as those setting the pace tend to do best. This isn't just anecdotal, as expected we have the numbers from those race above to back this up...

...and here's how my shortlist have approached their last four contests...

Summary

I narrowed the field to five and decided that I wasn't too bothered about the draw. This placed more emphasis on pace and from recent efforts, it looks like Hello Me would be the pacemaker, but she can't be my winner here. She has won just 1 of 11 on turf with her best form coming on the A/W. She hasn't been seen for 16 weeks, so might need the run and hasn't won any of her last eleven races anywhere, since scoring at Newcastle in December 2021. She has only made the frame in one of those 11 defeats, so she's even vulnerable from a place perspective here.

Sarah's Verse has raced as a hold-up type of late and that's a concern, as is the fact that she's 5lbs higher than her last win here three starts ago. The hold-up tactics worked that day with the ground being soft, but as quick as it's likely to be here, she may have too much ground to make up. It should also be noted that 9 of her 11 Bath outings all came during April to September 2021 with her other two runs coming a year ago and seven weeks ago.

All of which almost brings me alphabetically to Coup de Force, Four Adaay and Granary Queen and I think they'd be my placers here today. Four Adaay won last time out, Coup de Force was a runner-up two classes higher and Granary Queen is a consistent placer (9 places from her last 11). All three have won at Class 4 and Granary Queen has won at this track before.

The manner of Coup de Force's runner-up finish LTO at Class 3 suggests that she's the one to beat and whilst it could be tight between the other two, I think I marginally prefer Granary Queen's consistency.

No odds available at 4.10pm on Thursday, so I'll need to revisit the market later, but I'd hope to see Coup de Force at around 10/3 or even 7/2. I suspect, the other pair will also be popular, rendering them too short for an E/W pick, but Sarah's Verse might be worth a small punt in case any of the trio flop.

Coup de Force opened at 10/3 with Bet365 at 4.30pm with Four Adaay the 7/2 second favourite. Granary Queen opened at 13/2.

Racing Insights, Thursday 25/05/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.50 Wolverhampton
  • 5.20 Chelmsford
  • 7.30 Limerick
  • 7.42 Sandown
  • 8.52 Chelmsford

The Sandown race is the only UK flat race on that list and it's also by far the highest rated. Sadly it is a small field and the bookies already think that it's a two-horse race at best including a pretty short favourite, but they're not always right, are they? I'm not saying that I won't end up agreeing with them, but if one of the two market leaders falter, then there's the chance of a decent-priced E/W placer in the 7.42 Sandown, a six-runner, Group 3, 4yo+ Flat contest over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

CASH has only raced four times to date and was only beaten by a short head here over course and distance in the Gr3 Classic trial 13 months ago. Came back from a five month break three weeks ago to run second in an Ascot Listed race, three quarters of a length behind Chindit, who was then second in last weekend's Gr1 Lockinge.

CHICHESTER won a Class 2 race at Newcastle back in January and has been a runner-up in two races since. He looks a useful performer at that level, but this is big step up in quality, although he has won over this trip.

CLAYMORE had a good 21/22 campaign, winning at Class 4 on debut and then was a runner-up and a winner at Group 3 in April/June of last year, before only managing to finish 4th of 5 in the group 2 York Stakes ten months ago. He hasn't raced since then and may well need the run. His win in Ascot's Hampton Court Stakes was over today's trip, though.

DESERT CROWN comes here having won all three career starts. He landed a Class 4 maiden at Nottingham on his only run as a 2yr old, before landing the Gr2 Dante and the Epsom Derby last season. I don't personally think last year's Derby has worked out well for subsequent winners, but if this one is ready to go first up after virtually a year off, then he's likely to be the one to catch.

HUKUM was also last seen landing a Group 1 prize at Epsom back in June 2022, as he came home almost 4.5 lengths clear in the Coronation Cup. He's a fabulous horse who has won 8 of his last 12 starts, but has had a serious leg injury and might well find 1m2f a bit sharp here, with most of his best form coming at 1m4f to 1m6f

SOLID STONE won back to back Group 3 contests in August/September 2021 before a 230-day break. He came off that break to win first time out in the Gr2 Huxley Stakes at Chester just over a year ago, but failed to kick on in three races since and may well need a run after another break. This trainer/jockey combo won this race last season, but stablemate Desert Crown must be the yard number 1 here, even if Solid Stone is the only former course winner on display.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert and it adds the following those details above...

Whilst that doesn't necessarily provide us with a winner, it does give me added confidence when I say that this shouldn't be Chichester's day. He has only won 2 of 19 on turf and both were on quicker ground than this, he probably wants a shorter trip too. Cash also has a fair swathe of red, but off just 1 or 2 races, I'll not write him off just yet.

With a small field over a non-sprint trip, I wouldn't expect any real draw bias here and whilst the stats might initially look like high draws have the best of it, the raw data tells another story in my eyes...

We're looking at six runners, so I'd take the data for stalls 6 & 7 as one entity with a win ratio of 17.39% and a place return of 30.43%, which would suggest that there's not a great deal of difference is the stats for stalls 1, 3, 4 and 6. In such cases, we have to treat the figures for stalls 2 and 5 to be anomalous, as there's no plausible reason for it being down to the draw. The race could however, hinge on how the race unfolds and based on the field's most recent outings...

...I'd say that Claymore is our likely leader with Solid Stone and Hukum the ones to chase him early. All eyes will be on Desert Crown, who will probably let that trio have a scrap early doors before attempting to put the race to bed later on. Cash and Chichester look like being waited with and the last two winners of this race both came from a hold-up position.

Summary

It's hard to see Desert Crown not winning here, based on his short career so far. The only potential problem is the fact that he hasn't raced for some considerable time. That said three of his rivals are also coming off a break. My pockets aren't deep enough, however to back him at best-price 4/7 to make it worth my while, so no win bet for me.

Of the rest, I think Hukum is the best horse, but I'm not keen on him here after a lengthy absence whilst quite seriously injured. The trip is probably too short for him and I think that 7/2 is far too skinny. I hope I'm wrong and that he goes well, because I do like him, but can't take him at those odds.

I've already ruled Chichester out, Solid Stone disappointed in his last three unplaced runs, so it's the front-running Claymore or hold-up type Cash from here. Claymore might well do too much up front in the early could end up feeling the effects of a ten-month break, but Cash has raced recently, is in good form and will be held-up like the last two winners. He's also likely to get towed into the race by Desert Crown, so I'm going Cash at 8/1 E/W plus the forecast with Desert Crown.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/05/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Warwick
  • 2.20 Ayr
  • 3.40 Yarmouth
  • 4.50 Warwick
  • 7.20 Southwell

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated runners based on short-term trainer form for me to consider...

...and of the five 'free' races and the three TS report races, Glorious Zoff runs in the highest rated, the 3.50 Warwick, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on good ground...

Disappointingly for a twelve-runner Class 3 field, only bottom weight Izayte won last time out, but Sea The Clouds has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last four outings. Chaos Control won two starts ago, Postmark won three back and Hurricane Ali ago. The other seven runners are winless in five or more runs.

Only four of these raced at this level last time with plenty moving class here. Hurricane Ail & Chaos Control are both down two classes after runs at Class 1 (hcp) and Grade 1 respectively, whilst Glorious Zoff drops down from Class 2. We also have five runners stepping up from Class 4; Mascat, Sea The Clouds, Coolnaugh Haze, Postmark and Izayte.

Glorious Zoff runs for the first time since wind surgery and it's handicap debut day for both Chaos Control and Postmark, whilst it's Sea The Clouds second attempt at landing a handicap. Mascat has been off track the longest at 195 days during which he left Joe Tizzard's yard for new handler Syd Hosie. Two others, For Pleasure (114d) and Sea The Clouds (184d), are also coming off lengthy breaks to challenge those who have already been in action since the start of April.

Glorious Zoff and top weight J'ai Froid are the only two yet to win at a similar trip to this one, but the latter is at least one of just two former Warwick winners, having scored here in a Class 3 handciap hurdle over 3m2f on soft ground back in March 2021. The only track winner is bottom weight Izayte who won here over course and distance three weeks ago off 6lbs and one class lower than today to get off the mark at the eighth time of asking.

Instant Expert adds to those stats by informing us of four previous Class 3 NH winners and also tells us that four of this field have yet to win on good ground...

For Pleasure actually won a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham in November 2020, before making the frame in a Grade 1 at the 2021 Cheltenham festival, but has been in steady decline since, as shown by the fact that he's now some 21lbs lower than his last winning mark. Most of this field have handled good ground well enough, but Glorious Zoff is 0 from 5, the same as Coolnaugh Haze's record at Class 3. For Pleasure has failed to make the frame in three visits to Warwick and has a really poor record at this trip.

Finest View has some good numbers despite not winning for a year, but there's not much winning form on offer here. Hopefully the place stats will tell us more...

There's definitely a bit more consistency there, but Glorious Zoff is still poor on good ground and For Pleasure doesn't like the trip, but overall the ones who look best from a placing perspective are...

...not withstanding the fact that Mascat hasn't raced for over six months and is still 8lbs higher than his last win seven starts ago. His record over hurdles, however, reads 13812 and according to recent outings, I'd not be surprised if he wasn't setting the tempo of the race from the front here with natural front-runner For Pleasure...

...and leaders have an excellent win record here over this going, course and distance...

...whilst prominent runners also have a great chance of running on for a place, which is good news for Chaos Control, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze.

Summary

The four that I'm most interested in here are Mascat, Chaos Control, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze. And I think Chaos Control is the most likely to succeed. He wasn't disgraced at all when 6th of 11 in the Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree last month and did win by 22 lengths at Market Rasen two starts ago. He looks like he might well be leniently treated here off an opening mark of 123.

The other trio are all more than capable of making the frame and with most bookies paying four places, they'd certainly be of interest from an E/W perspective. Sadly no odds were available at 4pm, so I had to revisit the piece later to check prices. Chaos Control was never long enough for me to go E/W, but I took 4-place E/W options about Mascat, Sea The Clouds and Coolnaugh Haze.

 

 

Racing Insights, Tuesday 23/05/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the first three would all be worth a second look.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.15 Punchestown
  • 3.23 Brighton
  • 4.10 Wolverhampton
  • 4.30 Huntingdon
  • 7.50 Hexham
  • 8.20 Hexham

It's not often that we get a horse scoring 15 on TS featuring in one of our 'free' races, but they've aligned here and whilst it's not the best race we'll ever look at, we really should look at Major Gatsby and the 3.23 Brighton,  an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 7f on good firm ground...

It's not unusual for a Class 6 field to contain no LTO winners and that's sadly the case here, but Fieldsman was a runner-up just 11 days ago, whilst both Mount Mogan and Amathus both finished third most recently inside the last three weeks. As for 'recent' wins, only joint top weight King of War, Shalfa and Diamond Cottage have scored in their last five outings.

Only River Wharfe, Fieldsman, Diamond Cottage and Sir Sedric raced (and were beaten, of course) at this lowly grade last time out, as the other seven all drop down from Class 5 and for bottom weight Dazzerling, this is is his first run for Phil McEntee, having left Laura Mongan's yard in the last three weeks. He also wears a hood for the first time, whilst Spirit Warning is in first-time blinkers and Sir Sedric will wear cheekpieces for the first time. In fact only Fieldsman runs with no headgear/equipment at all!

Whilst Major Gatsby was our featured runner from The Shortlist, he's not the only former course and distance winner on display here. As it happens, only Mount Mogan, Spirit Warning, Sir Sedric and Dazzerling have yet to win over this track and trip, but all bar Dazzerling have at least scored over 7f elsewhere.

We've a big spread of age/weight here today as the 11yr old Fieldsman takes on four 4 yr olds (top three in the weights and the bottom weight) in a field where King of War and Major Gatsby are rated some 18lbs better than Dazzerling.

Major Gatsby, however, might well need a run after a break of almost 20 weeks as he now tackles a group of horses where most of them have raced in the last four weeks, apart from Sir Sedric and Spirit Warning who return from absences of 101 and 354 days respectively and the latter could certainly be excused for a bit of rustiness.

More stats are available to us when we click the Instant Expert tab, such as seven past good to firm winners and one tackling the going for the first time as well as seven (not the same seven!) Class 6 winners. We also have one Class 2 winner, three at Class 3, three at Class 4 and six Class 5 winners...

...and in a pretty open but fairly mediocre contest, it is indeed Major Gatsby who catches the eye on the win stats, but without any real standout star above, we might need the place stats to help us whittle the field down...

and fragmented by column...

If we hen applied the green = 3pts and amber = 1pt rule from the Shortlist criteria, then we'd have Dazzling and Shalfa on a maximum of 12pts, followed by King of War on 10pts. next best on the list would then be Fieldsman, Major Gatsby and River Wharfe each with 8pts and having featured on all four columns. I think that these are the ones to focus on now. This half dozen are drawn no higher than stall 9 (2, 4, 6, 7, 8 & 9) with most of them in the higher half of the draw over a course and distance  where the draw stats wouldn't necessarily be enough to rule any of them out...

...although stall 6 (Fieldsman) seems an anomaly with such a poor return. The key to winning at Brighton has often been about getting your nose in front and staying there...

...with leaders almost twice as likely as prominent/hold-up types to win. Again, I'd be wary of suggesting mid-division horses can't win, but their record is pretty poor from both a win and place perspective and I'd want my runner to be in the forward half of the field, which is where you're likely to find Shalfa and Fieldsman...

and my shortlisted six from pace/draw combined...

Summary

I narrowed the field down to six and then based initially on pace and then by the pace/draw combination, I think that I'd want Shalfa, Fieldsman and King of War as my three for the frame in a very open-looking race. I could easily have the first three home, but I could also have none in the frame and as such, it's case of keeping stakes very low.

My three are relatively generously priced at 8/1, 5/1 and 16/1 respectively and on that basis, I'd take E/W options about Shalfa at 8's and King of War at 16's and if you've still got an active SkyBet account, they're paying four places.

Good luck!

 

 

Racing Insights, Monday 22/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.40 Carlisle
  • 5.25 Roscommon
  • 5.45 Market Rasen
  • 6.25 Roscommon
  • 8.05 Windsor
  • 8.45 Market Rasen

...the best of which, on paper, are a couple of Class 4 contests ie typical Monday fayre. The Carlisle Class 4 contest only has seven runners and won't provide much scope for E/W punters, whilst the Market Rasen offering is a 5-runner maiden! With that and today's feature in mind, I'll drop down a class and head for the 8.05 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to form ground...

It's a busy-looking racecard so let's quickly assess the information in front of us before moving on. Form-wise, just Hurtle was able to win last time out, but Overactive, City Cyclone and Mirabello Bay did manage to finish third and the latter had won three of his previous four outings, whilst Bulldog Spirit is the only runner in the race with a previous win, having scored at Newcastle on his debut in September of last year.

It's a fairly inexperienced field with just 42 career starts, of which Mirabello Bay is responsible for 14! This general inexperience manifests itself by the lack of wins and in the facts that Rule Of Thumb and Bulldog Spirit both only have one previous handicap run each and that Overactive, City Cyclone, Brave Knight and Kyle of Lochalsh are all on handicap debuts here.

Rule of Thumb drops in class here, whilst Mirabello Bay's LTo win was at Class 6 and he's up in both class and weight, although by just 1lb and he has already won at Class 5, as Instant Expert will testify shortly.

Most of the field have raced in the last two months or so, but it's a seasonal reappearance for Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and Brave Knight after lay-offs of 151, 230 and 251 days respectively, so they'd be excused for needing a run here.

Only Mirabello Bay has raced here at Windsor before, but has failed to make the frame in two starts, but he's also the only one to have run at a similar trip to this one, having won over 1m4f two starts ago.

I think the lack of experience may well have affected the assessor's judgement as the entire field only has a 4lb spread from highest to lowest rated, so so of these might well have been treated leniently or harshly depending upon your viewpoint. This inexperience is also reflected in the relevant stats shown on Instant Expert...

Not much to go on here, admittedly, but our three previous winners have all won at this grade, Hurtle has at least made the frame on good to firm ground and there's not really much to add to that, so let's quickly move on to see who might have the best of the draw over a course and distance that has tended to suit those drawn highest for win purposes, but there seems to be no bias at all when it comes to making the frame...

Those win stats will be better news for the likes of Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and possibly Rule of Thumb than it will over their rivals, but I suspect much will depend on how the field approach the contest, which is where feature of the day, PACE, comes into its own, because we know that those races above have favoured horses racing in a prominent position, just off the leader(s)...

Aside from this advantage for prominent runners, there's not much to split the other three running styles from either a win or a place perspective. We can also use our pace stats to make an educated guess at how these runners will approach this race, by looking at how they've tended to race in their most recent outings as follows...

A couple of them aren't entirely consistent in the early days of their career, but I'd expect City Cyclone to be setting the pace and Mirabello Bay to be the early back marker. Brave Knight will probably also be towards the rear, whilst Bulldog Spirit is likely to be prominent. Both Overactive and Kyle of Lochalsh led in their last races, which was a new tactic for them, but it didn't produce a better run than their previous efforts, so they might not race as freely this time.

Summary

Based on the evidence (or lack of!) above, of the past winners, I think the more experienced and most successful Mirabello Bay would be the one to choose for my shortlist, joined by the pace of City Cyclone and possibly Kyle of Lochalsh, whose yard have a great record at this track and have won this particular race several times in the past.

The obvious pick would be Mirabello Bay with his 4 wins and 2 places from 14 starts, including 3 wins and 2 places from his last six, but closer analysis of his form shows that those six runs were all on the A/W and that his last run on turf was here at Windsor when third of seven over 1m2f last October. That was his sixth run on turf and his other five results read 77656, so he's not suddenly as hot as he might appear.

City Cyclone has ran well in both starts this season, finishing third on both occasions and of the four horses that beat him in those races, two won next time out, one made the frame and one has yet to re-appear, so those third places might have decent efforts and if afforded an easy lead here, he could go well again.

Kyle of Lochalsh is admittedly a bit of a "what-if" type of selection, it took him a while to get going last time out, but seemed to be getting the hang of it in the closing stages and his yard have done well here/in this race in the past.

To be honest, it's not really a race I'd ant to invest heavily in, if at all, but if push came to shove, I think that this trio would represent my best chance of filling the frame. As for a winner, there's nothing jumping out, but City Cyclone could well be the one, if allowed to set the tempo. Mirabello Bay might have got used to losing now, too!

I wrote the above just after 3pm on Sunday with only Bet365's odds available. To put money down on them, I'd want at least 8/1 for any of them as an E/W bet and only City Cyclone offered that opportunity at 9/1, so that's my tentative selection for (very) small stakes.

Racing Insights, Friday 19/05/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier...

Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.50 York
  • 3.15 Newbury
  • 5.00 Downpatrick
  • 5.26 Newbury
  • 7.40 Aintree
  • 7.45 Downpatrick

The first on that list is a Listed race, but full of inexperienced runners, so I'm heading to Liverpool for a decent looking stayers' contest. The 7.40 Aintree might not be of 'Grand National' proportions, but it's a competitive 11-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase (19 fences) over a left-handed 3m1f on good ground...

Bottom weight Go On Chez won last time out and Lounge LIzard comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst top weight Kinondo Kwetu has two third places finishes at Class 1 after winning six straight races. Only Java Point and Tim Pat are winless in five.

Both Kinondo Kwetu and Ruthless Article are down in class from runs in valuable Class 1 handicaps (the former was third here over course and distance off today's mark), whilst Topofthecotswolds and Saint Arvans both step up one class with Lounge Lizard and Go On Chez up two grades from wins at Class 4 last time out.

A few of these have had relatively recently wind surgery and Empire de Maulde, Kinondo Kwetu and Go On Chez now run for the first, second and fourth time respectively since their op.

Ruthless Article has won a 2m4f chase here at Aintree, whilst Kinondo Kwetu, Empire de Maulde and Go On Chez are former course and distance winners. Organdi, Hidden Heroics, Lounge Lizard and Topofthecotswolds have managed to win over a similar trip elsewhere,

Seven of the field have raced inside the last six weeks, but four (Topofthecotswolds, bottom weight Go On Chez, sole female Organdi and Empire de maulde) might well need the run, coming off respective breaks of 144, 189, 209 and some 371 days.

Instant Expert also tells me that all bar Java Point (0 from 5) have won a chase on good ground, but that only Ruthless Article & Empire de Maulde have won at this grade. All four runners to have visited Aintree have won here and only Tim Pat is waiting for a chase win over 3m to 3m2f after four attempts...

...whilst place form looks like this...

The place stats highlight decent last efforts from Empire de Maulde with a full line of green from the four main criteria (going/class/course/distance), whilst Kinindo Kwetu has 3 from 3, Go On Chez has 3 greens and a red (from just one C2 run) and Ruthless Article has 2 green and 2 amber. Lounge Lizard and Saint Arvans have no class/track experience but have handled the going and the trip well enough and the fact we can easily pull half a dozen names off that graphic shows the competitive nature of the contest.

The way this field have approached their most recent outings suggests they might get a little strung out...

...with Hidden Heroics, Topofthecotswolds and Lounge Lizard looking keen to get on with things, whilst I'd expect Saint Arvans and Go On Chez to let them get on with it and then wait for a late run. Fortunately for us, we know how previous past similar contests have panned out via our Pace Analyser...

...which say that whilst hold-up horses do go on to make the frame more than mid-division runners, they do struggle to win here, which is a bot of a blow to Saint Arvans and Go On Chez.

Summary

The two best runners here for me are Kinondo Kwetu and Lounge Lizard and they'd be my starting point. The former is coming off a pair of Class 1 third places, before which he was six from six. He drops in class here after racing over course and distance off today's mark and that drop in class might be all he needs to get back to wining ways.

Lounge Lizard comes here seeking a hat-trick, but is up two classes and 9lbs. In fact, aside from one Class 3 outing, where he was beaten by 52 lengths, his other ten races have all been at Class 4 and this is a big step up, so of the pair, I'd be with Kinondo Kwetu. Only Hills had a book open at 4pm and I felt their 11/4 was a bit skinny as I was hoping for 7/2 or bigger, so I'll wait that out.

For the places, Lounge Lizard might be vulnerable to those from behind him like Hidden Heroics and Saint Arvans who are both more than capable under these conditions with the latter particularly attractive as an E/W possible at 14's, based on the way he has shaped in his last two runs.

Chris

Please Note, I'm away from home/my desk pretty much all day Friday, so no Saturday preview from me, sorry. I'll be back Sunday for Monday's racing.

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