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Racing Insights, Tuesday 04/04/23

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Apologies for the lack of a preview of Monday's racing, but I was down at Wembley watching my beloved Bolton Wanderers win the much-coveted Papa Johns Football League Trophy and there'll be no column on Good Friday for Easter Saturday either, as I'm at a wedding all day, but now to what I am able to provide...

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Sadly, we have no qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.15 Thirsk
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.15 Thirsk

Now, I tend not to get involved too much with Flat racing in April, so it's a bit of a Hobson's Choice today, as I'll be looking at the 2.30 Fontwell, a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over 2m2f on heavy ground, that is soft in places. Dry weather is forecast, so the ground might ease...

BALLINGERS CORNER finished 133 in his three hurdles runs in the 20/21 season, but didn't run for over 22 months before making a chase (and handicap) debut at Ludlow a month ago. She didn't jump too well and went right, made a fair few errors and eventually was last home of seven beaten by 35 lengths.

BLACKO won a couple of Class 4 juvenile hurdles in his first two starts (Dec/Jan 19/20), but struggled raised in class thereafter. Switched to chasing in February this year, he landed a 3-runner Class 3 beginners' contest by 4 lengths at Leicester, but was last home of four at Leicester last time out.

HECTOR JAGUEN failed to make the frame in four over hurdles, but did finish third in his first two over fences in Jan/Feb of this year. It wasn't third time lucky though, as he unseated his rider at Plumpton three weeks ago and he now steps up in class.

SHAW'S CROSS also steps up in class here, but he does have the benefit of a win over a similar trip, when scoring over Plumpton's 2m1½f in January this year. has finished fourth in both runs since without looking like winning and a 35 length defeat a fortnight ago was disappointing. The step up in class can't help, surely?

BEN BRODY won three races and made the frame twice in a purple patch of form (3151P12) from mid-December 2020 to Boxing Day 2021. but has pretty much flopped since, with seven unplaced efforts reducing his mark down from 105 to today's 81. He runs from 1lb out of the handicap, but is rated some 18lbs lower than his last chase success.

In addition to the above details, both Blacko and Ben Brody are former soft/heavy ground winners, whilst Blacko is 2 from 3 in this grade. Ballingers Corner has also won at Class 4. We already know that Ben Brody is way below his last winning mark, but Blacko is now also 2lbs lower than when winning two starts ago!

Historically, the key to winning a race like this here at Fontwell has been to get out sharpish and control the tempo of the race from the front. Those that haven't been able to lead have been advised to stay as close to the leader(s) as possible if they want to make the frame and here's the breakdown...

...stats that, when you look at how this field have raced recently, would suggest Blacko and Ballingers Corner might well be the ones setting the fractions...

Summary

Small field with little to write about today, but Blacko ticks more boxes for me than the others. He won two starts ago and now runs off a lower mark, he's proved in this grade and won't be too concerned about the soft underfoot conditions. He's likely to be the front runner, which is ideal for Fontwell and at 6/1 (Bet365 @ 4.25pm), he looks quite long in a 5-horse race. You could take a quarter odds E/W, if you wanted, but that's not for me.

Hector Jaguen is the current 15/8 favourite, but he'd need to improve dramatically to win here in my opinion and whilst he might well put a decent effort in, the likes of the 7/2 Shaw's Cross at the bottom of the weights might just surprise him.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 01/04/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.17 Stratford
  • 3.05 Bellewstown
  • 5.00 Kempton
  • 6.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

From which, we have a Class 2 race on the 'free' list and also one on the TJC list. The former is worth considerably more than the latter, so we're off to Essex for the 7.00 Chelmsford, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo A/W Conditions Stakes over a left-handed mile on standard polytrack...

Plenty of in-form runners here to consider, as you'd expect for a race of this standard with Physique winning last time out, Think Climate winning his last two, Bold Act & Iconic Moment have won three on the spin, whilst Brave Emperor has been first past the post in his last five efforts, even if he was demoted to second two starts ago. Stormy Entry is two from three and Coco jack/Tenjin are the ones who probably look weakest on recent results alone.

LTO winner Physique does step up two classes here, though, which will make life tougher as will a three step rise for hat-trick seeking Think Climate, but stablemates Iconic Moment and New Defifintion ran at Class 1 four weeks ago resulting in a James Tate-trained 1-2 in a Listed race with the pair separated by just a short head with the re-opposing Tenjin a length further back.

Only Brave Emperor (over 6f), Iconic Moment (7f) and Think Climate (7f) have won here at Chelmsford so far, whilst Bold Act (at Kempton & Newmarket), Brave Emperor (Kempton) and Stormy Entry (Dundalk) have all won over the one-mile trip. All bar three of the field have raced insde the last four weeks but Think Climate, Physique and Bold Act are returning from layoffs of 116, 155 and 191 days respectively.

It's a conditions stakes contest, so they all carry the same weight (9st 7lbs), meaning that the trio of Bold Act, Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are best off at the weights, being rated at 101. Alzahir and New Definition are only officially rated one pound worse, but Stormy Entry and Think Climate are considered to be some 12/13 pounds worse than the top-rated trio.

Instant Expert has more stats for us, such as highlighting the six runners sharing eleven standard going wins between them and showing just one previous Class 2 A/W winner...

Brave Emperor is the obvious standout here along with Iconic Moment and I suspect that this pair are very likely to be amongst the ones we should be considering for our winner, whilst Tenjin doesn't appear to be well suited at all. Brave Emperor and Iconic Moment are both in the lower half of the draw in stalls 3 & 5 respectively...

...which is the better place to be, as the higher drawn runners have fared much worse than those in stalls 1 to 6. Draw, of course, isn't the be all and end all, especially here at Chelmsford, where the old adage is "get out quick and stay out", but is that really the case? Let's check...

Well, that's a definite yes! The further forward you race, the better the chance of a win/place, so let's consider the most recent pace profiles of the field...

...which suggests that Brave Emperor is likely to be front and centre here, along with some company, of course. Iconic Moment, however, may have to negotiate traffic later on if he's to succeed. Brave Emperor is therefore a low drawn leader and that looks ideal for this contest...

Think Climate will probably go hard early on, but the layoff might well take its toll and this is a big step up for Physique.

Summary

Iconic Moment looks a class act, but I'm not sure his running style lends itself to Chelmsford, so that hands the initiative to Brave Emperor who has ticked boxes throughout the process and at 9/2 could offer some real value. I expect Iconic Moment to be finishing fast, but I'm hoping he doesn't quite get there, but this pair could well be the first two home.

Sat TV Trends: 1st April 2023

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This Saturday the new flat turf season gets going at Doncaster on Saturday, with the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap as the feature, while there is also decent all-weather racing at Kempton with that include the Listed Magnolia Stakes.

The ITV cameras are showing seven races across the two venues and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats.

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Unibet More Extra Place Races Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
8/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
7/15 – Had won at Kempton before
6/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2

2.40 Try Unibet’s Improved Bet Builder Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV

No previous runnings
Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy has a 36% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy has a 19% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey David Egan has a 19% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Lewis Edmunds has a 18% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3.15 – Unibet Queen’s Prize Handicap (London Stayers’ Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 2m ITV

11/11 - Won no more than 5 times
10/11 - Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/11 - Had won over 1m6f or further
8/11 - Didn’t win last time out8/11 - Had run at Kempton before
8/11 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 - Only won between 1-3 times before
7/11 - Rated between 82-89
6/11 - Favourites that finished 2nd
6/11  - Had won at Kempton in the past
2/11 - Trained by Roger Charlton
1/11 - Winning favourites
7 of the last 9 winners carried 9-2 or less
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/1

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – Pertemps Network EBF Brocklesby Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV

13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Won this on their debut runs
9/15 – Foaled in Feb or March
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Horses from stall 2 that finished 1st or 2nd
5/15 – Ridden by a claimer
4/15 – Trained by Bill Turner (2006, 2008, 2011 & 2013)
4/15 – Winning favourites (co & joint)
3/15 – Winners from stall 2
3/15 – Winners from stall 10
3/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/15 – Ridden by Charles Bishop (2 of the last 4)
0/15 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 5/1
Trainer Richard Fahey has won 2 of the last 5 runnings

Note: 2006 running was staged at Redcar, 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

2.25 – Pertemps Network Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

17/20 – Carried 8-13 or more
16/20 – Aged 4 years-old
16/20 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
14/20 – Won over a mile before
13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/20 – Won from a single-figure draw
3/20 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
2/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Won last time out
2/20 – Won a race at Doncaster before
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 20 years

 

3.00 – Pertemps Network Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
16/18 – Had won no more than 5 times before
16/18 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
16/18 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Had won over 6f before
12/18 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
12/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/18 – Rated 101+
11/18 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
11/18 – Had raced at Doncaster before
10/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
4/18 – Had won at Doncaster before
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites (or joint)
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)

3.35 – Pertemps Network Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

19/19 – Aged 6 or younger
18/19 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
16/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
15/19 – Had won between 2-4 times before
14/19 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
14/19 – Having their first run of the flat season
13/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
12/19 – Unplaced favourites
11/19 – Aged 4 years-old
11/19 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/19 – Officially rated between 95-100
10/19 – Placed first or second last time out
9/19 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/19 – Won last time out
7/19 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/19 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/19  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Trained by William Haggas
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/19 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/19 – Trained by John Quinn
2/19 - Trained by John Gosden
2/19 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 4)
10 of the last 12 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 36 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 13/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

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Spring Mile / Lincoln Video Preview

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To mark the return of flat turf racing to Britain, I've recorded some thoughts on the two big field mile handicaps being run at Doncaster tomorrow. The Spring Mile and the Lincoln are both Class 2 straight mile handicaps and both have 22 runners as I write. The ground is currently soft, heavy in places, with the sky taps still turned on - so heavy might be what we get.

With all that in mind, I share my thoughts in the video below. In it, I share:

- Common features between the races
- Draw / run style biases
- Instant Expert overviews
- Some picks!

[*As ever, if I speak too slowly for you, use the little cog icon bottom right on the video to choose a faster playback speed]

Good luck!

Matt

 

Racing Insights, Friday 31/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded four qualifiers for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.25 Wetherby
  • 4.40 Wexford
  • 4.50 Southwell
  • 5.55 Southwell
  • 6.10 Wexford

Of the free UK races and the three featuring H4C runners, the 3.25 Wetherby is the highest rated as a 10-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed two miles on soft ground...

Dare To Shout has won two from three so far (runner-up in the other) and is the form horse and only LTO winner in the contest, whilst Fransham, Albert's Back and Uhtred are all winless in six. Top weight Celestyal Horizon has been pulled up in four of his last five.

He does, however, drop down a level here, as do Front View, Uhtred and Dancewiththewind. Dare To Shout goes the opposite direction on his handicap debut, whilst both Hardy du Seuil (first-time cheekpieces here) and Sizing Pottsie are both dropping down from Class 1 action LTO witht he former having won at Class 2 two starts ago.

All ten have already won over today's with three of them (Fransham, Albert's Back and Dancewiththewind) having won over course and distance. Bottom weight Pyramid Place has also won here in the past, landing a 2m4f hurdle.

None of these are coming off really long layoffs with Fransham's 11-week absence the longest, as half of the field have raced inside the last three weeks and seven have been seen this month alone.

In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells us that all bar Celestial Horizon, Dare To Shout and Dancewiththewind have already scored on soft ground and that half of the field (Fransham, Hardy du Seuil, Albert's Back, Dancewiththewind & Pyramid Place) are former Class 3 winners...

Our Pace Analyser tells us that those setting the tempo of similar races have done pretty well, but that the optimum racing postiion is to track the leaders in a prominent position...

...with hold-up horses having a lamentable record here at 1 in 80! Based on the field's most recent outings, that hold-up stat really isn't good news for Sizing Pottsie, Uhtred and/or Pyramid Place in a contest where I expect Dancewiththewind to set the pace with a target on his back for the likes of Hardy du Seuil, Front View and Dare to Shout...

Summary

I can see Dancewiththewind trying to make all to win for the third time in four starts to land a second course and distance win, but his front-running tactics make him a target for Hardy du Seuil, Front View and Dare to Shout. I don't particularly like Front View, as he's in poor form (just one win in nine over the last three years) and doesn't win often enough on soft ground.

I'd expect the leader to be overhauled by both Hardy du Seuil and Dare To Shout, but at 12/1 (Bet365 , 3 places) or 10/1 (SkyBet, 4 places) Dancewiththe wind looks a viable E/W prospect at 10.30pm on Thursday, which begs the question about who wins. Dare to Shout is the form horse, finishing 211 in his three starts so far but all at a lower grade than this. Hardy du Seuil, on the other hand, drops down from Class 1 to run here, won a Class 2 two starts ago and was a Grade 2 runner-up over fences last year.

I think the latter is a 'better' horse than the former and I'll take quality/experience over form today with the 9/2 (generally) Hardy du Seuil to edge it over the 9/4 (gen) Dare To Shout.

Racing Insights, Thursday 30/03/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.45 Hexham
  • 2.50 Limerick
  • 3.00 Warwick
  • 4.17 Naas
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

...and the highest rated of the three UK free races is the 2.45 Hexham, a 5-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles on heavy ground...

DELUXE RANGE was last seen three months ago finishing out of the places a class higher than this and runs for the first time since having wind surgery. Jockey and yard work well together (see below). Sadly the horse has failed to win any of its last thirteen and would probably prefer a longer trip.

BEAT BOX was a Class 5 winner at this trip three starts ago after having a wind op and was then second when stepped up two classes next time out, but was well beaten at Class 5 last time around and will need to improve back up in class.

HORN CAPE comes from a yard in decent form that has done well here at this venue and has found a few winners for today's jockey. This 6yr old was a nine-length winner over just half a furlong further last time out, getting off the mark in style but is now up in class and carries a 7lb penalty for the win.

MISS LAMB also won last time out (over course and distance) for a third win in a seven-race career that has seen this race's only mare finish outside the first three home just once (3 wins) and will seek to improve her yard's already excellent record at this venue off what looks a fairly lenient mark for her handicap debut.

I DOUBT THAT has failed to make the frame in seven races on turf (4 x flat & 3 x hurdles), but finished 1712 in four A/W starts, winning at 1m4f and 2m, along with a 2m runner-up spot two starts ago. Second to last of eleven over hurdles (74 lengths) last time out, though. hard to fancy on handicap debut, but does receive 20, 14, 13 and 9 pounds weight from his four opponents.

At this stage, it looks to me like Horn Cape and Miss Lamb would be the two to focus on and we're probably not getting any decent odds on either of them winning! Instant Expert favours the mare here on win stats...

...with Beat Box a regular placer over today's trip...

Neither Beat Box nor Horn Cape have fared well at Class 4, but Miss Lamb certainly looks the one to beat here. Based on recent outings, she's likely to be prominent early on and I suspect Deluxe range might well keep her company, whilst Beat Box is the probable early back marker...

If we then look at how similar races here at Hexham have gone...

...then that's not great news for Beat Box, assuming we have a truly run race and all horses behave as they have previously.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, with the mare Miss Lamb being the one to beat for me at 13/8 (Hills was the only price available at 4.15pm). She ticks boxes in every bit of analysis we've done and should take this in her stride off a mark of 110. Horn Cape is probably the best of the rest, but up in class and weight here and doesn't really appeal at 6/4. That's probably the 1-2, but the 15/2 Beat Box might make a better E/W bet, based on his results at this trip and he doesn't seem to mind heavy ground.

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/03/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.20 Lingfield
  • 4.35 Navan
  • 4.45 Newcastle
  • 8.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following...

...and with James Fanshawe's sole entry above running in one of our 'free' races, I think I should attempt to assess the chances of Novel Legend in the 8.00 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed two miles on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these won last time out, but Blazeon Five, First Emperor, Sarsons Risk and Novel Legend were all runners-up with the first three of that quartet winning two of their last five. Hydroplane & Vazir both won three starts ago, but Grandmaster Flash has eleven defeats on the bounce and hasn't made the frame in his last six.

None of this field raced at a lower grade last time out with Blazeon Five, Grandmaster Flash and fast-finisher Novel Legend all running at this Class 4 level. First Emperor was second at Class 3 with Vazir unplaced at that grade, Hydroplane was third at Class2, whilst Sarsons Risk was a faller in a Grade 2 hurdle, having won a Class 4 contest previously.

Hydroplane and Grandmaster Flash have both won over today's trip in the past with Blazeon Five and First Emperor having scored over this track & trip. As for results on standard to slow going and/or at Class 4, Instant Expert helps us to fill the gaps...

...where aside from indifferent results at this grade, Blazeon Five and First Emperor are the ones to catch the eye. The place stats are useful here, as they suggest that Blazeon Five might not actually be a blow out at Class 4, having finished 1222 in his last four efforts at this level...

At this point, I'd be making a mental note that the out of form pair, grandmaster Folash & Vazir should be discounted from my thoughts and I'd have doubts about First Emperor being good enough to run at this grade.

In a smallish field over two miles, the draw really shouldn't be able to make or break a runner's chance, so this aspect of the toolkit is probably not as important as usual, but for clarity/transparency, we should take a look anyway...

I wouldn't read too much into the suggestion there's a low draw bias here, as the figures are very much skewed by a disproportionate number of winners from stall 1 and my thoughts are that the actual tempo of the race would dictate who goes best. For the record, those races above have been won by horses running as follows...

With mid-divisional to prominent runners faring best of all. We can look back at this field's last few runs to see how they might approach this one...

..but with many of them wanting to run in that mid-division zone, it doesn't actually help us solve the riddle.

Summary

When the draw and pace stats can't help us, then I generally fall back upon recent form and Instant Expert's suitability overview and if that's what I do here, the obvious choice to me is Blazeon Five, with three wins and three runner-up finishes from his last six. Four of those have been over course and distance where his form reads 1122 and whilst not wanting to disparage his previous riders, the booking of William Buick looks a positive move.

At 5.30pm Blazeon Five was 11/4 joint fav with featured horse, Novel Legend and I prefer the former to the latter. The latter has every chance of making the frame here if showing no rustiness from a five month break and they'll probably be the first two home. No E/W suggestion here.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/03/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with a couple of 'possibles' to consider in the Black Country. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.45 Hexham
  • 4.15 Hexham
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton

...and although it's not a great race, it does make sense to consider the chances of a  horse, On The Right Track, in a 'free race' ie the 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 9-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

None of these come here in any great form, although Belle of Annandale & Haven Lady were both runners-up on their last outings, whilst the latter along with Hashtagmetoo are the only pair to have won any of their last five and they seem to be the most consistent of this bunch.

All bar Iron Heart (down two classes) and This One's For Fred (down one) were in Class 6 action last time around and seven of the field have raced ion the last four weeks. The exceptions to this are Belle of Annandale & The Shortlist horse On The Right Track who now return from breaks of 173 and 239 days respectively and may well need the run.

Kentucky Kingdom, This One's For Fred and Tio Mio are former course winners (at 1m1½f, 1m6f & 1m1½f), whilst Haven Lady and Iron Heart have previous wins over a mile and a half. Belle of Annandale has won at neither track nor trip, but Hashtagmetoo, Starfighter and On The Right Track are all course and distance winners.

Instant Expert also tells us that all bar Belle of Annandale have won on standard A/W and that all bar Belle of Annandale and Iron Heart have won a Class 6 A/W contest...

On the immediate face of it, The Shortlist horse On The Right Track is the eyecatcher, but that optimism has to be tempered by the fact that he hasn't won a race for almost 18 months, although he's now weighted to go well. Obvious concerns surface about Haven Lady, Starfighter, This One's For Fred & Tio Mio on the going, This One's For Fred on Class and both Hashtagmetoo & Starfighter on the trip, but as there's a lack of green above, let's look at place form...

...where again On The Right Track looks best placed but with the same caveats as before. This One's For Fred looks the weakest here and I think we'd probably be best focusing on those with any green on Going, Class, Course and/or Distance, so that's not good for Belle of Annandale (again), Haven lady or Iron Heart.

Other than not getting hampered or cut-up on the bends, there shouldn't really be a massive draw bias in a 9-runner contest over a mile and a half, but let's check the actual stats...

...and they do seem to back up my theory, that aside from a slight disadvantage in the lower quarter of the draw, there shouldn't be too much in it and it's a similar story with pace. Hold-up horses have struggled to make up ground here, but thise racing any further forward all seem to have a decent enough chance of getting involved...

...which based on recent outings...

...wouldn't bode well for the likes of Kentucky Kingdom, Tio Mio or Iron heart and if we use a three-race sample size and arrange the field in draw order using those draw/pace stats abo, we can generate this heatmap...

Summary

It's Hashtagmetoo here for me. He's running consistently well, scores well on Instant Expert for places, is well drawn and has a good pace profile. He won over course and distance earlier this month and looks the most likely to me.

No prices out as of 3.10pm Monday, so I'll check back in later and update and also add an E/W option, if there's a viable price.

Update, Hashtagmetoo opened up at 15/2 with Skybet & Hills not long after 5pm, so he's the E/W pick for me.

 

Sat TV Trends: 25th March 2023

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A busy day for the ITV cameras this Saturday as they head to Kelso to take in four races, plus they are also at Newbury to take in three more jumps races. While ITV racing are also covering the lucrative Dubai World Cup for the first time.

As always, here at GeeGeez are on hand with the key trends and top tips for all the LIVE ITV races.

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV4)

1:30 - Play Pick 6 At BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f ITV4

2 previous run
Trainer Sam Thomas won the race in 2022
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2021
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 28% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 19% record with his hurdlers at the track

2:05 – Get A Run For Your Money At BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+ 0-150) 2m4f ITV4

8/8 – Aged 7 or older
7/8 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Favourites finished first or second
6/8 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
6/8  - Won no more than 3 times over fences
5/8 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/8 – Had run over fences at Newbury before
3/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/8 – Winning favourites

 

2:40 - British EBF BetVictor "NH" Novices' Mares' Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (Series Final) (GBB) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4½f ITV4

9/10 - Carried 11-2 or less in weight
8/10 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/10 - Won 1-2 times before
8/10 - Had not run at Newbury before
8/10 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
7/10 - Had won over 2m4f or further before
7/10 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/10 - Placed favourites
6/10 - Irish bred winners
5/10 - Aged 5 years-old
5/10 - Ran at Doncaster (3) or Exeter (2) last time out
4/10 - Won last time out
4/10 - winning favourites
2/10 - Trained by Charlie Longsdon
2/10 – Trained by Noel Williams
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

Note: 2013 running was staged at Kempton

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (RTV/ITV4)

1:50 – BetVictor Go North Cab On Target Target Handicap Hurdle (Series Final) (GBB Race) (Cl2) (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

Just 1 past running
Trainer Sandy Thomson has a 19% record their chasers at the track
Trainer Mike Smith has just a 3% (1-33) with his chasers at the track

2:25 – Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV4

8/8 – Aged between 7-10 years-old
8/8 – Won between 2-5 times over hurdles
8/8 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
7/8 – Favourites placed in top 3
6/8  - Irish (4) or French (2) bred
6/8 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
6/8 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/8 Had run at Kelso before
4/8 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
3/8 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/8 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 6/1

3:00 – BetVictor Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m

1 previous running
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race last year
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien has a 36% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track

3:35 – Make Your Best Bet At BetVictor Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2f ITV4

6/7 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
6/7 – Had won over at least 3m before
6/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/7 – Won between 0-3 times over fences before
6/7 – Unplaced last time out
5/7 – Unplaced favourites
5/7 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
3/7 – Had run at Kelso before
1/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 6/1

MEYDAN HORSE RACING TRENDS (RTV/ITV4)

4:35 – Dubai World Cup sponsored by Emirates Airline (Group 1) (Dirt) (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

12/12 – Previous Group/Grade 1 or 2 winners
12/12 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
10/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
10/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/12 – Previous Group/Grade 1 winners
9/12 – Officially rated between 119-123
8/12 – Didn’t win their last race
8/12 – Aged 5 or older
7/12– Had won at the track before
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 - Owned by Godolphin (9 wins in total)
5/12 – Returned a double-figure price
5/12 – Came from stalls 5-8 (inclusive)
4/12 - Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (9 wins in total)
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 - Ridden by Christophe Soumillon
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the Dubai World Cup 4 times
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
Thunder Snow (2019/20) is the only past back-to-back winner

 

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Racing Insights, Friday 24/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded the following...

...and this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.15 Hereford
  • 2.50 Hereford
  • 3.00 Musselburgh
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I think we really need to look at Elzaam in the 8.15 Newcastle, which is a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap over a straight 5f on standard going tapeta. He has raced at this class, track and trip nine times so far in handicaps and his results read 332211311! From those nine races he is 1311 under today's jockey Graham Lee, 311 in fields of 12+ runners and he's 11311 in his last five career runs, incidentally all here over course and distance.

Here's the card...

As you can see, he's one of just two (in-form Enraged being the other) LTO winners but five of his rivals (Primo's Comet, Enraged, Kraken Power, Nellie French & Another Angel) have also won over course and distance.

Most of his rivals (except Impressor @ 112 dlsr) have raced in the last five weeks and Shabaaby, Primo's Comet & Enraged all drop in class to run here in what will be just Madam Arkati's second run in a handicap.

As you'd expect, Elzaam dominates the Instant Expert section of the card...

...but a few others do at least have some creditable numbers behind them. There is however a large number of red boxes with horses having poor results from a fair large sample size ie Araifjan on the going, One Hart (track), Primo's Comet (going/track/trip), Mews House (going/trip), Marwari (going), Nellie French (track) and Another Angel (class). To be honest, I do see it as a negative if your percentages are still that low after 10 or more attempts. Hopefully the place stats will show some of these in a better light...

A simplistic view here is that Elzaal, Enraged, Kraken Power and Marwari might be the ones to make a shortlist from, although you could still make a case for a few others. That said, Primo's Comet and Impressor do look like they might well struggle.

Elzaal is drawn in stall 11 of 14 on a track/trip where not only have high draws prevailed most often, but stall 11 has been the most successful of all...

And he has been drawn in 10 or higher in three of his four course and distance wins to date. So, Elzaal is in great form, he's the course/distance expert and has got a great draw, so here's the downside? Well, if there is one it's the fact that he's likely to have pass most of his rivals late on if he's to win again, as recent runs suggest he's likely to be held up for a late run...

...and that's not generally the way to win such races here at Newcastle, if we refer back to those races we used for the draw stats...

So, the main possible negative is that he runs from a career-high mark with a possible poor pace profile, but he has won his last two here from the back of the field suggesting he might be the exception to the rule and if we're looking for high drawn leaders, I suppose that's Another Angel in #13, who might well give Elzaal a good two into the race from wide.

Summary

I really can't see Elzaal not making the frame here, especially with most firms paying four places, but at 6/1 he's not E/W material for me. The biggest challenges will probably come from in-form class dropper Enraged (current 5/1 fav) and Kraken Power who can be had at 2.50pm at 17/2 with Hills, which would probably be my E/W play.

Kraken Power was just a nose behind Enraged when they met here last month and with Kraken Power a pund better off here, it's sure to be tight between the pair and then when you add the late run from Elzaal, we could have a cracking finish. Any of the three could get it on the nod, but if I stuck my neck out, it'd be with featured horse Elzaal.

Please note, I'm off to Oslo this (Thursday) evening, returning home on Monday, so the next Racing Insights column will be for Tuesday's racing (28th).

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/03/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Cork
  • 2.35 Chepstow
  • 3.50 Cork
  • 5.20 Ludlow

The first of the two UK races above is a Novice event, so I'm going to have a look at the 5.20 Ludlow, a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in 11 flights over a right-handed 2m5½f on good to soft ground, that is soft in places with showers forecast...

My initial thoughts were that Your Band might be out of his depth, but that the other half dozen might well only be separated by a few points in the market, giving us a nice competitive contest.

Sole mare Malaita is the only LTO winner in the field, but she's up a class here, as is Duke of Moravia, who made the frame last time and now makes a second handicap appearance. It's also Amrons Sage's second crack at a handicap, whilst Spring Meadow is on handicap debut.

Top-weight Whatsupwithyou was a runner-up less than three weeks ago and now drops in class, whilst Spring Meadow and No No Tango also made the frame last time. Duke of Moravia has been away from the track the longest at almost twelve weeks, but that's no real cause for concern.

The mare Malaita is the only former course winner, having landed a bumper in May 2021 on her second career start, whilst Whatsupwithyou's win at Ascot on debut in December 2019 is the only win at this trip achieved by the entire field. Feature of the day Instant Expert also tells us that just two of the seven have won on good to soft or soft ground so far and that just three of them are Class 4 winners...

Spring Meadow looks strongest here in a weak set of results, but we'll probably learn more from place form...

My main concerns here are Whatsupwithyou on the softer ground, yet closer analysis is contradictory. He's made the frame in four of vive on good ground, so you'd say he wants it quicker than this, but his win on debut was over this trip on heavy ground. Elsewhere, Malaita might struggle with the quality of the race, as her best form (inc that LTO win) has been at Class 5, but she was a runner-up at Hereford thirteen months ago off just one pound lower than today.

She won from the front last time out and is likely to be up with the pace again here, if her last four outings are anything to go by (see below), but this might be tricky, now she's up in trip by 3.5 furlongs. Of the others, No No Tango looks the likeliest to be the early back-marker...

...and back-markers have fared worst in similar past races, according to our pace analyser...

...which looks weighted towards leaders.

Summary

Overall, the two I like(d) best are/were Whatsupwithyou and No No Tango, but neither come without risks. The former hasn't gone well on good to soft/soft ground, but has won on heavy. He's got a good pace profile for this contest, has won at this trip, is in decent form and drops in class. The latter is a regular placer in good nick, but might well be left with too much to do.

Aside from this two, Spring Meadow also made some appeal with two wins and a place from his last four and a prominent racing style, but his jumping hasn't been great and he's hardly thrown in off a mark of 188 for his handicap debut, so I'll stick with my initial pair and side with the 9/2 Whatsupwithyou to edge out the equally-priced No No Tango.

 

 

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/03/23

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Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! And as ever, we ask you to please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also have the following fully functional free racecards...

  • 3.25 Warwick
  • 4.10 Haydock
  • 4.25 Ffos Las

My own personal settings for the TS report ...

...have generated the following...

...with both Your Own Story & the veteran Le Coeur Net running in one of our free races. Your Own Story's race look a better one on paper, so let's head towards the 4.10 Haydock, a 10-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 3m4½f on soft ground...

Featured horse Your Own Story is the one of the ten to have won last time out, but all bar Shanty Alley, Equus Dreamer and Juge Et Parti have won at least once in their last five outings with No Cruise yet winning two of five and The Questioner two of three. Burbank, however has failed to complete the last three, Sam's Adventure hasn't finished his last two, Shanty Alley has two incompletes from five as does Fortified Bay.

In-form The Questioner is up in class here, but Shanty Alley, Sam's Adventure, Rath An Iuir and No Cruise Yet all drop down a level. Sam's Adventure is turned back out after just three days, as he unseated at the first at Carlisle, whilst Equus Dreamer's ten week break is the longest of the ten runners.

No Cruise Yet is the only one of the ten to have won over a similar trip to this, achieved via a course and distance win here three starts ago, whilst Sam's Adventure's 3m2f chase success in December 2019 is the only other Haydock win mustered by this field. Mind you, four of them have never even tackled a fence here, as shown by Instant Expert...

 

...where class dropper No Cruise Yet is the obvious eyecatcher, even at 7lbs above his last win. Fortified bay has some good numbers, but struggled off today's mark LTO and I should mention The Questioner, who has no relevant chase form under these conditions, but is unexposed after just two runs over fences. He won on debut, landing a 3m2f contest at Doncaster, which earned him a 6lb rise to a mark of 103 from which he duly finished third in the 3m6½f North Wales National at Bangor 12 days ago, going down by just four lengths, suggesting today's trip shouldn't be an issue and he's a soft ground winner over hurdles.

Based on similar recent races here at Haydock, you'd want to be on a horse that's up with the pace...

...and based on this field's last few outings...

...that's more good news for No Cruise Yet and Fortified Bay.

Summary

The bookies have Your Own Story (5/2) No Cruise Yet (4/1) and The Questioner (5/1) as the market principals and that's probably fair as they're the best three in the race in my opinion. That said, it's rare that the top three in the market are the first three home, so if one was to falter, that might open the door for Fortified Bay as an E/W bet, who might well outrun his 16/1 ticket (as of 6.30pm) and could be worth a quid or two, especially if your bookie pays four places.

As for the winner? It's No Cruise Yet for me at 4/1, he's in good form, scored best on Instant Expert and has the ideal pace profile for this race.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 21/03/23

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

We do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 2.15 Wetherby
  • 3.50 Market Rasen
  • 4.25 Market Rasen
  • 4.50 Clonmel

Small fields everywhere in the UK and not much of note to discuss, but I'm going take a quick look at the 4.25 Market Rasen, as it seems the 'best' of the free races to look at. It's a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m7f on soft ground and these are the five runners set to go to post...

MADE FOR YOU has finished 51122 in five starts here and was a winner at Musselburgh three races ago, scoring by 8 lengths in early December. Hasn't been anywhere near that level in two runs since (PU and 5th of 6) and will need to improve to be involved here, you'd think.

THE KNIPHAND looked a better horse when stepped up to 3m+ last December, winning back to back handicaps at Doncaster seven weeks apart. Things didn't go to plan last time out at Chepstow, but he was up two classes and should stand a better chance here now back down in grade.

BOLD SOLDIER makes a handicap debut here after being the runner-up in three of four efforts over hurdles so far and was beaten by less than two lengths over 3m on soft/heavy ground at Uttoxeter last time out. He was headed with half a furlong to go and the slightly shorter trip and slightly better ground here could help him land a first win in a first time tongue tie, as might the booking of a 7lb claimer who has finished 1271 in his last four.

STORM DENNIS won back to back 2m5f contests in Jan/Feb of last year before a seven month break. He was then last of five, beaten by twenty lengths on chase debut before reverting to hurdles on Boxing Day in a 10 length defeat when 6th of 15 over 2m5f at Kempton. Unproven at the trip and might need the run, but off a workable mark, the same as his last win.

RIPPER ROO had a good 20/21 season, finishing as a runner-up on his sole bumper outing before a run of form reading 2331 over hurdles, culminating in a win here over 2m5f. Then off track for the thick end of 20 months, he hasn't looked the same in three efforts over fences, beaten by 31 and 43 lengths before being puled up last time out. Might do better back over hurdles, but hard to be confident about his chances.

Not much soft ground form to write home about, but The Kniphand and Made For You both have multiple wins at this level and Made For You really likes it here at Market Rasen, but has struggled with the trip, unlike The Kniphand, but he's now 6lbs higher than his last win, whilst from a place perspective, it's Storm Dennis who looks the weakest...

With these small fields on tricky ground, you often get a falsely run race, but if this field run how they have in their most recent outings, then I'd expect the first part of the race to see them in this kind of order...

...although Storm Dennis might well be the one to lead out and I'm unsure about Ripper Roo. Made For You looks like one who'll be waited with, though. The pace might not actually be as important here as it is on other days, as it looks like this kind of race can be won from anywhere...

...the mid-div numbers are obviously skewed in a such a small sample size, but my take here is that if pace is no real advantage, then the horse best suited to conditions 'should' be the one to back.

Summary

The pair I think I'd want to be with in a race like this are the two I highlighted from Instant Expert, Made For You and The Kniphand. Neither tick all the boxes, as explained earlier, but there's a big discrepancy in price. Made For You has the ability to win this race, but is out of form, so the cheekpieces are going back and at 9/1, he's the outsider of the five, but might be worth a small (and I mean small) E/W bet here.

Otherwise, I have no play in the game.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/03/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Taunton
  • 3.25 Navan
  • 3.45 Taunton

The latter of the two UK races appeal most to me both generally and from a pace perspective and whilst it's a small field, the race looks pretty competitive in the 3.45 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

Jpr One has two wins and a runner-up finish from five so far with wins over 2m1f at Exeter and over 2m3½f. Well beaten in his last two efforts, both at Graded level, he now drops two classes for a second crack at a handicap a full year and five days after he was last seen. Will probably need the run.

Mr Grey Sky won both bumper starts (Dec '18) and won back to back short distance hurdles in Jan/Feb '22, but hasn't tackled a hurdle for a year and has ran just once fences since then, finishing last of six at Hereford just before Christmas.

Zambezi Fix won LTO just over three weeks ago, when first home by a neck at Chepstow over today's trip, after been a heavy ground runner-up on his previous run in January. Up 4lbs here, but still expected to be in the mix.

Libberty Hunter had two wins and a place from four bumpers and his hurdles form reads 231 (all at Chepstow). He was only beaten by a length in a 15-runner contest on hurdles debut over today's trip in early November, but a step up to 2m3½f somewhat caught him short a month later, but another one month break and a drop back to today's trip saw him get off the mark over hurdles with a 1.25 length success. Up one class for his handicap debut here.

In The Air won over this trip on hurdles debut just over a year ago, but hasn't really shone since, finishing 6th of 9 at Aintree (over 100 lengths down) in a Grade 1, then falling at Fontwell prior to a 12 length defeat (6th of 9) at Ascot four months ago. No run since then and although down in class, might toil here.

Mamoom Star made the frame in his first two bumpers including a Listed race at Cheltenham at the start of 2022. He was then well beaten in two more bumpers before winning on hurdling debut last November here at Taunton (Class 4, 2m1f). Subsequently just 6th of 10 (45 lengths) at Kempton on Boxing Day, he then dropped two classes t0 run third of eight at Sandown a month ago. Now back up in class for his handicap debut.

All of which translates to a bit of a mixed bag form-wise...

Zambezi Fix looks unsuited by the trip, but has made the frame in four of his twelve defeats and with so little to go on from a win perspective, I think place form might help us more...

...where Zambeai Fix now looks more of a consistent, experienced performer, but it's Libberty Hunter catching the eye despite this being a class and course debut.

Feature of the day is pace and below you can see the pace scores from each runner's last four outings alongside a composite of their average score...

...suggesting Mr Grey Sky is likely to set the tempo of the contest, whilst Jpr One, In The Air and Zambezi Fix are all likely to be waited with. I've looked at past similar races and they haven't been kind to back markers...

Summary

You've probably guessed that I haven't spend long on this race and that's because you shouldn't be poring over small field low quality contests. Quickly ascertain if there's a bet for you and then move on is the Geegeez way!

I think there could be a bet here on Libberty Hunter. Up in class for a handicap debut, but in good form, scored well on IE place form and has the right kind of pace profile here. He's 11/4 with Bet365 (Sunday 7pm) and that's a bit longer than I expected, which is good.

As for a runner-up/placer/forecast horse, I did like Zambezi Fix initially, but a poor record at the trip and him being held-up have put me off so Mamoon Star might be the one at 13/2. He'll have to overcome a step up in class, but is running well and gets the trip readily.

Racing Insights, Friday 17/03/23

/in /by

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 1.30 Cheltenham
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.20 Wolverhampton
  • 5.50 Down Royal
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

...so I suppose it makes sense to try and assess the chances of Johnny Boom in the 8.30 Wolverhampton, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table as both won last time out and they are two from three and three from six respectively. Captain Attridge is a career 0 from 5, but the rest of the field have all won at least one of their last six outings.

The entire field either ran a this class or higher last time around, so, all should used to the standard, especially Poetic Force, Baby Steps & Harbour Vision who drop from Class 4 and Enough Already whose last race was a Class 3 affair.

Captain Attridge has been off the track since 1st October 2021 and is highly likely to need the run on his yard/UK/handicap debut. Of his rivals, Milltown Star's 55-day break is the longest and Harbour Vision, Poetic Force & Johnny Boom all raced less than a fortnight ago.

Enough Already and the maiden Captain Attridge are the two yet to win here at Wolverhampton and of the nine course winners, five (Arcadian Nights, Tiger Beetle, H4C horse Johnny Boom, Harbour Vision & Mafia Power) are course and distance winners.

All bar Captain Attridge have won on standard going A/W tracks with varying degrees of success and we've half a dozen previous Class 5 A/W winners, according to Instant Expert...

One's focus automatically falls on the green blocks and it's pretty safe to say that Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force, Tiger Beetle and Johnny Boom have performed best under these conditions previously, whilst I have concerns over Enough Already (going), Baby Steps (going/distance), Johnny Boom (class), Harbour Vision (class/course), Mafia Power (going/class/distance), English Spirit (going) and Captain Attridge (layoff and generally!).

In fact, I'd not say those I have concerns about couldn't/wouldn't make the frame, but I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle, who will emerge from stalls 2, 5, 9 & 11, so a good spread across the track. I've omitted Johnny Boom from my list of possible winners, because he is 6 from 12 at Class 6 and 0 from 16 any higher, including 0 from 11 at Class 5. He has made the frame in three of six Class 5 A/W handicaps here though, so could be one for minor money.

My quartet of potential winners are spread across the track for a race that has, at first glance, benefited those drawn centrally...

...but the stall by stall analysis doesn't entirely back this up, so I wouldn't be too concerned about where my horse was drawn and I'd be more interested in race tactics. And we look against at those 1600+ runners above, the key here is not to dwell early and get left behind...

Sitting just behind the pacemaker(s) is the preferred option, but again like the draw, you'd not be too worried how your horse ran and from which stall, as long as they weren't held up and this is how this field have approached their most recent races...

Those pace scores are probably another nail in the coffin for Johnny Boom winning here and you'd want Poetic Force to run like he did LTO rather than the three previous races. The thing about PF is that he runs off the same mark as a win LTO, even though he drops in class and that should be enough to overcome any pace bias. The fact he's drawn in 11 might also suggest he'd have to tuck in anyway.

Summary

Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force bring the best form to the table and after looking at Instant Expert, I said that I can only see the winner coming from Arcadian Nights, Milltown Star, Poetic Force and Tiger Beetle and to be true to my word, I think this is a contest between Arcadian Nights and Poetic Force.

Both are in good form, both scored well on Instant Expert, neither are going to set the pace, although Arcadian Nights does have a better pace profile. Poetic Force, however, runs off an unchanged mark from his LTO win whilst dropping in class whilst Arcadian Nights is up 5lbs for a win at this level and some 9lbs higher than his C&D win here three starts ago and the weight/class might just be the difference.

So, it's marginally Poetic Force over Arcadian Nights (reverse forecast, perhaps?) for me with the other place going to any of a half dozen others, about whom I'll return to make a judgement once I've seen the market open.

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