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Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Four Preview, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Four Preview, Tips

We're onto Give Back Friday, which is bad news if you're already in negative equity. Traditionally the hardest of the four days, this year Day Four looks as fiendish as ever. Still, where there's light there's hope...

1.30 Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

Time was when the Triumph Hurdle, for four-year-old novices only, could throw up a shock or three. And, in 2019, the winner was returned 20/1 in spite of being unbeaten in one over hurdles and trained by Nicky Henderson; a year later, in 2020, the winner was 12/1 even though she was unbeaten in one over hurdles and trained by Willie Mullins. Go figure.

With the advent of the Fred Winter (Boodles) handicap for the same age group, Triumph fields tend to be a little thinner these days: the average field was 26 between 1997 and 2004, compared with 16 since 2005, the first year of Fred Boodles. In the past five years, the average field size has been just eleven runners. Yet this time, we have 15, in a few cases as a result of the Boodles over-subscribing and, therefore, the dreaded 'social runners'.

In recent seasons, only Henderson (twice) and Philip Hobbs have managed to repel the Irish raiders, and this season looks virtually certain to result in another 'away win'. That man Willie - Triumph winner in 2020 and 2022 - and before he was a 'thing' in 2002, with Scolardy, ridden by Charlie Swan - has the market in a half nelson this time, courtesy of his t'riffic triumvirate of Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau, along with four others!

Lossiemouth was considered the pick of the Closutton squad, even though she finished behind Gala Marceau in the key prep, the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. There, she endured a difficult transit and Gala scampered clear. There's no doubt Lossie was unlucky in second, and there's little doubt that the margin would have been narrower with a clear passage for her; but the market has them further apart than perhaps they ought to be. Gala Marceau was having her first run away from France when a seven length second to Lossiemouth the time before, and she would have narrowed that margin the last day regardless of clear or troubled trips in behind. She has more experience and could improve again.

Blood Destiny is harder to fathom, having not yet faced Graded company. He was second to Bo Zenith, whose limitations have since been exposed, in France before Willie sent him unbeaten in two. He won his maiden by five lengths in a field of 20 from Sir Allen (two from two since), and then sauntered 18 lengths clear of 131-rated Common Practice and subsequent Adonis Hurdle winner, Nusret.

Still Willie has more. Zenta won a Listed hurdle at Auteuil, jumping flawlessly, and was again brilliant - apart from annihilating the flights in the straight! - at Fairyhouse (Grade 3) last time. I wonder if the sun was in their eyes that day because those blemishes were out of character with everything else she'd done. Mullins suggested it might have been because she was in front, in which case she'll be ridden patiently in the Triumph. She has a similar profile to Burning Victory and is a big price in that context.

Milton Harris has enjoyed an incredible renaissance in the past two seasons, plenty of which is down to his inspired campaigning of juvenile hurdlers. The flag-bearer in that discipline this term is Scriptwriter, bought off the flat from Aidan O'Brien and a winner of his first two hurdle races. That double included the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle here; but he's since run a close second to Comfort Zone - again at Cheltenham - and, more concerningly, was thumped in the Adonis. Perhaps that more speed-favouring hurdle track did for him, or maybe he was feeling the effects of some hard races; either way, he's now a precarious proposition in this company.

The rest don't look good enough, though Je Garde is a total unknown after a debut third at Auteuil. The winner has won her two starts since, and the runner up won next time, too, all in and around Paris, so the form - in French terms at least - stacks up.

Triumph Hurdle Pace Map

Not one to take too literally with the limited amount of form on the table; but it would be wrong-headed to think that (at least) one of the Willie's won't go to the front. It might be Blood Destiny, but not necessarily.

Triumph Hurdle Selection

This is a Willie cartel. It's not a question of whether he wins but with which of his many options he does so. Lossiemouth and Gala Marceau should be in close proximity to each other, while Zenta and especially Blood Destiny are unknowns at this level and could be better or, more probably, worse than the G1 proven pair. Lossiemouth is the most solid and probably ought to be favourite on track performances; but obviously the yard has a line on the perceived hierarchy.

Suggestion: Tricasts or trifectas with Lossiemouth/Gala Marceau, and Blood Destiny/Zenta, might be a way to get almost everything right about the race and still lose money!

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2.10 County Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap, 2m1f)

For such an open handicap, this race has been dominated by a handful of trainers in recent times. Paul Nicholls bagged four of them between 2004 and 2014, Dan Skelton - Nicholls' protégé - claimed three of his own between 2016 and 2019, and, of course, Willie Mullins has his fingerprints all over this trophy as well: six wins since 2010. That's 13 of the last 19 County Hurdles shared among them.

If we, sensibly, extend the sequence to 20 races to render it slightly less arbitrary, we will note that six of the remaining seven renewals were won by another Irish trainer. So, in the past two decades, the score reads W Mullins 6, rest of Ireland 6, P Nicholls 4, D Skelton 3, rest of UK 1. This is a handicap that has been contested by 24+ horses in all but one of those 20 years. Wow.

My shortlist is Sharjah, Hunters Yarn, Path d'Oroux and Pembroke.

Sharjah is top weight, and that's because he has been there, seen it, done it. He's in the Arctic Fire mould of Willie County winners, as a dual Grade 1 winner just 15 months ago. Though he might be a touch below that level now, he's still run close to State Man twice this season before a lovely trial for this at Gowran last time. He's going to cruise all over these through the race and then it's a question of whether either of age and/or weight tell in the closing stages. They might not.

Willie also saddles Hunters Yarn, a high class novice and winner of his last two hurdling starts, most recently a Listed novice at Navan. He bolted up there, in a small field, and was 13 lengths too good for two dozen rivals on his previous run; but this is a significant step up in class. The fact he's handled a big field is a plus and I have already backed him; I'd be less attracted by his current odds from a value perspective, however.

Lower down the field is the potentially very kindly weighted Path d'Oroux. This fellow won a bumper and a maiden hurdle, both in huge fields, before his sights were raised to Grade 1 novice company. He pulled up behind Supreme winner Marine Nationale on his first attempt, and was then fourth to Supreme runner up Facile Vega on his second G1 try, beaten far enough. An easy score in lesser grade since will have boosted confidence and he might be a 'lurker' for his shrewd trainer, Gavin Cromwell.

The best of the British could very well be the Dan Skelton-trained Pembroke, whose profile screams County Hurdle. A lightly raced novice having won his bumper this time last year, he was seventh to Grade 1-winning Tahmuras on seasonal bow. He then easily won a pair of novice hurdles, one in a big field, before running second in the Grade 2 novice on Trials day over two and a half miles. That will have been a perfect prep for this and, if anyone can from this side of the water, Dan can, with easily the best race record in the past decade.

Many more can win, natch, including Filey Bay, an Emmet Mullins-trained runner who has done everything he can to show the UK handicapper he's not as good as he actually is, while still winning twice and running second in the Betfair Hurdle last time. He also has a lovely racing weight but a commensurately skinny quote.

County Hurdle Pace Map

The Chris Gordon pair may be to the fore, as might something from the Mullins quartet; and so might a number of others. This is unlikely to be a pedestrian gallop.

County Hurdle Selection

The more I look at this, the more I think old boy Sharjah (8/1) still retains more than enough talent to overcome his weight allocation. He has no secrets from the handicapper, but sometimes the good ones just win, don't they? And I think 9/1 Pembroke is sure to run well, even allowing for the hard time UK novices have had against their Irish counterparts. He's with the right man, and has a featherweight to carry. I'll probably have a small bit of 16/1 Path d'Oroux as well. Keep the extra place concessions in mind again here.

Suggestion: Back a few each way with extra places, perhaps including some/all of the above trio.

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2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

The Spuds Race. Ten years ago, At Fishers Cross won at a starting price of 11/8. Since then, eight winners have returned a double figure SP, including 50/1 and 33/1 twice. Willie Mullins has had winners at 16/1 and, last year, 18/1 since 2017. It's that sort of a race.

There are lots of credible horses at the top of the market, notably another Emmet green and golder, Corbetts Cross (who did remarkably well to win over two miles last time), Hiddenvalley Lake and Favori de Champdou. Literally nobody will be shocked if one of those, or Three Card Brag or Embassy Gardens, wins. But that's not the way to play this race, is it?

We need to ask, and answer, the question, "why do so many big prices win the Spuds?"

My contention - and a lot of other peoples', also - is that it is to do with the juxtaposition of pace between the trial races and the Albert Bartlett itself. In plain English, five runner 2m6f Grade 2's do not translate well to 16-runner three mile Grade 1's. In the latter, they go faster and demand less class but more stamina and steel.

A quick look at some of those big priced winners reveals an identikit of sorts:

The Nice Guy was stepping up more than half a mile in trip after winning a huge field maiden
Vanillier was another big field maiden scorer before getting outpaced in an 8 runner race. Was wrong in G1 before Cheltenham
Minella Indo was 3rd in small field maiden and 2nd in a small field Grade 3 (3m) before relishing this stiffer test
Kilbricken Storm won at Cheltenham (3m) before getting outpaced/not handling heavy in G1 (2m5f)
Penhill had actually won a small field 3m G2 on his prior start and was just a big price on the day
Very Wood was stepping up to 3m for the first time having finished 3rd of 3 over 2m4f

Small field preps, up in trip seem to be the main clues. Let's see if that can be applied to anything at a bumper price this year...

Sandor Clegane fits the bill but is too short a price having run third in a G1 last time. I'm unashamedly swinging at the big odds here and obviously that probably means a losing bet; but the risk/reward ratio is in our favour based on the nature of the beast.

Gigginstown-owned and Gordon Elliott-trained is Search For Glory, keeping on in third behind subsequent G1 winner and Ballymore fourth Good Land over 2m4f; and then keeping on for a much closer third over 3m in a five-runner Grade 3 last time. He's very interesting for this assignment.

Affordale Fury is trained by Noel Meade, who saddled 33/1 Very Wood in 2014. A winner from the front in a 14-runner maiden (2m6f, soft), he then fell at the last when contesting in a 2m4f G3. Most recently he was outpaced all the way in the G1 Lawlor's of Naas (2m4f, soft) but made some minor headway. I'm not sure that's good enough even when looking through the big-priced prism.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Expect many fewer than the number which start to finish. There is plenty of pace on, and it will be the tough and hardy blokes over the classy but flimsy snowflakes - if you'll pardon the phrase - that prevail.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Selection

The horses I'm interested in are all far less credible winners on the evidence of the form book, so if you're following me you need to know they might bomb out completely. In that scenario, win only is the way to go (and we can cry together later when rounding out the minor podium positions!!) - and I'm going with Search For Glory and Sandor Clegane against the top of the market. This is a race where it feels like we'll have a bit of a chance with our windmill-tilting; at least, it often is that way.

Suggestion: Back something that has been getting outpaced in smaller fields and/or over shorter trips. 25/1 Search For Glory and 14/1 Sandor Clegane are my guesses against the field. Lots of more obvious horses, so this is a bet where I'm happy to wave goodbye to the tenner.

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3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2 1/2f)

This is the big one, the Blue Riband. The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the pinnacle of the sport and is always a fantastic spectacle, though winner-finding can be tricky.

This season, one horse towers above the rest in terms of his chance; that horse is Galopin Des Champs. Trained by, you guessed it, Willie Mullins, Galopin Des Champs won the 2021 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle and would have cruised home in the Turners Novices' Chase a year ago but for falling at the last. Since then, he's won three straight Grade 1's, a novice at Fairyhouse's Easter fixture and two opens this campaign, the John Durkan and the Irish Gold Cup.

The margin of victory in that trio of G1 was scores was 18L, 13L and 8L, and he appeared to answer the stamina question with his three mile win last time - partially, at least. The Gold Cup is, of course, three miles two and a half furlongs, and that's another quarter mile and more than he's gone to date. So will he stay? That's simply not an easy question to answer. His sire, Timos, has had no other runners in Britain or Ireland; himself a German-bred (by Sholokhov out of a Surumu mare), he raced in lower Group class on the level at ten to twelve furlongs. His dam, Manon Des Champs, was by a US-bred stallion, Marchand De Sable, who won a heavy ground ten furlong Group 1 as a two-year-old. Helpful? Not really, I know. Where I get to is that there must be at least some chance he won't stay in a truly-run Gold Cup, especially if the going is on the softer side. But if stamina holds, he is the clear form pick.

There are pro's and con's with all his main market rivals. Let's consider a few, starting with A Plus Tard. The pro's are that he won last year's Gold Cup and was second in the race a year prior; thus, we know he stays, we know he handles the track and we know he has the class to win the race. But the con is a big one: he has only been seen once since this day last year, when bombing out completely in the Betfair Chase, a race in which he'd pulverised his opposition twelve months earlier. Add to that the fact that he was due to run at Christmas - his trainer related to attheraces.com, "he got a bang that ruled him out of Christmas, so we said back in January that we’d go straight to the Gold Cup". You've got to take a lot on trust to side with A Plus Tard at this stage against something of a changing of the guard - some high class second and third season chasers.

One such second season chaser is Bravemansgame, winner of the King George in dominating fashion at Christmas. A look at the Paul Nicholls-trained star's form profile renders most of the names he's been called grossly unfair: as well as that G1 King George, he's won the G1 Challow Hurdle, the G1 Feltham/Kauto Star, and the G2 Charlie Hall. His sole Cheltenham run was at the 2021 Festival when he was third to Bob Olinger in the Ballymore. He tried to make all that day in a bigger field than he's typically faced, and was spent in the run to the line. This season, he's raced more patiently under Harry Cobden, and followed a gutsy win at Wetherby with a classy one at Kempton.

But is he a "flat track bully"? Yuk, it's such a horrible phrase - I apologise for using it; and I only do it to counter the barb. As you can see from the image below, in the 'Profile' section, he's only run on flat tracks over fences - that means he can't handle undulating tracks no more than a horse encountering different underfoot for the first time.

 

What it does mean is we don't know whether he'll handle it or not; but what we do know is that he has excellent form this season, stays pretty well, jumps well, has class and can be ridden wherever. Given his odds, that's a lot of positives on which to take a chance that he might not handle the track.

This time last year, Noble Yeats was finishing slightly better than midfield in the Ultima Handicap Chase, which is not a well known springboard to the Gold Cup! Of course, he followed that effort up with a dazzling 50/1 triumph in the Grand National. It didn't pan out first time this season at Auteuil but he then doubled up at Wexford (Listed) and Aintree (Grade 2) before running a fair third in the G2 Cotswold Chase in late January. That looked every inch a prep - think last season's Ultima - for his spring targets, which are this race and a defence of his National title. Noble Yeats obviously stays well and he handles any ground, too. It could reasonable be argued that his best form is on flat tracks, too, though.

Stattler was a staying-on second to Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup and won the NH Chase at last year's Festival; so he is another second season chaser and has stamina in abundance. He has also demonstrated his aptitude for the track, albeit Old and New courses here are different tests; and he seems to handle most terrain. This season he was just pipped in a sprint (relative, it was heavy ground) finish over 2m6f before beating all bar GdC last time: his is a nicely progressive profile.

Running here rather than the Ryanair, where Conflated fell a year ago when likely booked for second, is a nod to the regard in which his trainer, Gordon Elliott, holds the horse. A look at his form implies this is the right race: a pair of three-mile Grade 1 wins at Leopardstown have been supported by a silver medal in the 3m1f G1 Aintree Bowl, and it's not impossible this longer trip will eke out a couple of pounds further improvement. If it does, he's another who figures on the premises.

Lucinda Russell trains the hugely popular second season chaser Ahoy Senor, second in last year's Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and winner of the G1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree. This campaign started on the back foot with a hard race in the Charlie Hall, the mark from which was probably left when he ran flat enough at Aintree and Kempton subsequently; but he got right back on track last time when beating Noble Yeats and Sounds Russian in the Cotswold Chase. The problem is that Sounds Russian, though progressive, is some way short of the ability required here; and, further, that Noble Yeats is expected to be a different proposition fitness-wise this time. All that said, Ahoy Senor does have a chance to control the pace and, if doing that easily, may be difficult to shake off in the finish.

One of the great under-rated horses of recent Cheltenham Festivals is Minella Indo. Winner of the 2019 Albert Bartlett (at 50/1!), he showed that was no fluke when running up to Champ in a memorable (for all the wrong reasons if you, like me, punted him) 2020 RSA Chase. Then, at the top table, he won the Gold Cup in 2021 from A Plus Tard, and got closest to that one last year - granted, that was no closer than 15 lengths. He's only had one run this season, a win, in the previously referenced New Year's Day Chase at Tramore. Trainer Henry de Bromhead is calling his quiet lead up "the best preparation he's ever had for Cheltenham" and, even aged 10, his Fez form of 1212 commands plenty of respect: he's been here and got the T-shirt, so to speak.

Two and a half lengths behind Minella Indo last year, and nearly twenty back from A Plus Tard, was Protektorat. On the face of it, he has a mountain to climb; but he was only seven then and one year more mature now - a good age for a Gold Cup challenger. He barrelled clear of the Betfair Chase field in November, scoring by eleven lengths, but was behind Ahoy Senor, Sounds Russian and Noble Yeats in the Cotswold Chase on his sole run since. He was sent off 5/4 favourite there, so presumably was fit enough; nevertheless, he's sure to come on for the run and is another on a very long list of place possibles and, on the Haydock run, not out of it for the win.

There are others with good form that doesn't quite match up to a Gold Cup. Royale Pagaille will again have his followers - all of them rain dancers - and he may again lollop into fourth or fifth; but he's unlikely to get the pace setup, though he may get the deep ground, he needs to outstay smarter oppo.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

It might be that Ahoy Senor gets a free hit on the lead, which would be optimal for his legion supporters. There is a group of others who like to race handily and it's no more than evens that something from that cohort contests with the Senor.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Selection

A very tough race to weigh up. If you think Galopin Des Champs will definitely stay, there's your bet as he's looked a Rolls Royce for a couple of seasons. If you don't, or you want to bet something each way, it's trappier. You're asked to take a lot on trust with A Plus Tard, you have to assume Bravemansgame will handle Cheltenham's undulations, or you have to believe that the likes of Minella Indo and Royale Pagaille still retain sufficient verve to mix it with the kids.

Or you can just back Noble Yeats each way and see how close he gets.

Suggestion: Back 9/1 Noble Yeats each way with four or, preferably, five places.

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4.10 Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase (Class 2, 3m 2 1/2f)

The hunter chase gold cup (small 'g', small 'c') and always a good - if sometimes faintly bonkers - watch. As with the Gold Cup itself, the previous renewal is often the best form guide. Twelve months ago, it was heartbreak for David Christie and Winged Leader as his notable lead was whittled to nothing a stride from the line and Billaway pipped him. Billaway himself was certainly not winning out of turn, having been second in 2020 and 2021. Although he's eleven now, that's more a positive in a race where the last eight winners were all aged ten or eleven and where there have been three back-to-back winners since 2012.

After Cheltenham last year, Billaway won a thriller against another rising star from the Christie yard, Vaucelet, but, on debut this season, he was thrashed by yet another Christie inmate, Ferns Lock. Since then, Willie Mullins' star hunter has somewhat unconvincingly despatched a lesser field. Though he always brings his 'A game' to Cheltenham, he arrived in slightly better nick the previous twice, I feel. He tends to race on the lead and there might be a little more contention for that this season, which could add a further challenge to his defence.

Vaucelet is the chosen one of Christie's three and, aged eight, would be the youngest winner since Salsify in 2013 (who had also won aged seven a year earlier). Based on his form, youth won't stop him and, as a winner over three and half miles in the Stratford Champion Hunter Chase late last spring, he ought not to fail for stamina either. He's progressive where Billaway might be slightly on the downgrade, the fine margin between them at Punchestown a year ago perhaps not enough in the champ's favour now.

The British challenge - historically strong, as shown by four of the past six winners - is headed up by Chris Barber's Famous Clermont. Another eight-year-old, he's sent the likes of Shantou Flyer and Envious Editor packing this season, including when romping to victory in the Walrus Hunter Chase, a high class contest in the sector run in February. Famous Clermont made a few errors in the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham's April hunter chase meeting last year and was eventually pulled up (as the 6/5 favourite), and his continued propensity for a mistake is a niggle.

Paul Nicholls has won this four times since 2004, with Earthmover, Sleeping Night, and Pacha du Polder twice. Since PdP's last win, in 2018, Nicholls is 0/4, though Bob And Co failed to jump round as his sole representative in the past two seasons - at short prices both times. This year, the Ditcheat yard have Secret Investor as their main hope. Now eleven, all of his best form - both as a hunter and previously under Rules - was on decent ground, so the wet week in the run up may be a concern. Cat Tiger, for the same yard, handles softer terrain and, while seemingly a little out of form this term, he's been racing in Class 2 and 3 handicap chases under Rules. His 2nd of 23 in last year's Aintree Hunter Chase (2m6f) gives him a squeak if he stays this far.

Bob And Co is now with Harry Derham, Nicholls' former assistant and, if he can jump round, he'd be a place player even at the age of 12. But I don't like backing horses who fail to complete.

Meanwhile, former Gold Cup runner Chris's Dream has won two point to points recently and comes here in form. He has obvious back class but he didn't get home in the Gold Cup and has never won over this far. His last win of any description under Rules was more than three years ago.

One of the first questions in this race is often, "What's Jamie Codd riding?" Answer: The Storyteller. A former Festival winner on soft ground, his stamina for this longer shift is presumed rather than established; but we do know he handles the other conditions and represents the most robust of connections: Gordon Elliott still trains him.

Rocky's Howya is a bit of a 'wise guy' horse getting some love on the preview circuit. He's young - seven - and been bashing up his rivals in point to points to a fair level of form. But I feel he should be a bigger price: he's one for the guessers - which, in fairness, most of us are in this race, if not the other 27 at the Festival!

A couple to mention in the long grass are Dorking Cock, Mighty Stowaway and I K Brunel. Dorking Cock has form with Vaucelet that gives that one only a small edge over this bigger priced runner. It's possible - perhaps likely - that Vaucelet was under-cooked that day; and DC had previously been thumped by Billaway. Still, he stays and handles all ground. Mighty Stowaway was third last year and represents the top UK point yard of Alan Hill; he might just be regressing aged twelve now but he'll surely run better than his early season form. From the same yard and still on the ascendant in this sphere is I K Brunel. He was a 130-rated chaser last season for Olly Murphy and comfortably beat Not That Fuisse in a hunter chase last time. He probably wants quick ground.

Maybe the ground has come right for Shantou Flyer, a horse that loves it soft and stays very well. He's 13 now, which is probably too old, and he's ridden by Paul Nicholls' daughter, Olive, who will obviously have grown up around horses and be very well schooled.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase  Pace Map

Pinch of salt pace map because we don't have point form so these are Rules races only.

Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase Selection

I hope Vaucelet wins, for connections of Winged Leader who was so cruelly denied on the line last year; but he's a short enough price. Billaway is an obvious horse to run close and is around 8/1 - he was the horse to pip the Leader last year, and has run 221 in this the past three years. In the longer grass, horses like The Storyteller and perhaps Shantou Flyer may still have enough gusto about them to hit the board.

Suggestion: Back 8/1 Billaway each way with extra places and you'll probably get close to the winner's enclosure and hopefully the payout window.

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4.50 Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 4 1/2f)

The Festival is pretty much over for me at this point, I have to concede. I have little interest in the Mares' Chase and know I'm not good enough to handicap the Martin Pipe. So let's keep it brief...

Allegorie de Vassy is a classy mare, winner of all four races - two hurdles and two chases - since moving from France to Willie in Ireland. Her two fencing scores were in Grade 2's, the same level as this, and she bolted up on both heavy and yielding so there are no grounds for concern, as it were. She has jumped right on occasion which, given this is a left-handed track, would mean she concedes a few lengths at her obstacles potentially: that, clearly, is undesirable for all that she may have a few lengths in hand of the rest.

The obvious danger is Impervious, herself a winner of three straight, including in G2 and G3 the last twice. She handles soft very well and had the beating of Grand Annual runner up (should have won) Dinoblue by three lengths two back. She's tough and seems to stay well.

Jeremys Flame is tough and consistent, graduating this season from handicaps to win a Listed race at Huntingdon last time. She's nine though, a veteran of 29 races, and her form is not as compelling as the other pair. She just about fits on the pick of her ratings, however.

Magic Daze has to prove she staze - sorry, stays; and the rest, most notably last year's winner Elimay, need to revert to the pick of their back class to feature. Zambella does look like getting her optimal soft turf and 2m4f trip

Mares' Chase Pace Map

A good bit of pace on, which will test jumping. Allegorie de Vassy, Magic Daze and Zambella are expected to be front rank.

Mares' Chase Selection

This looks between the top two in the betting but they're not that far clear on ratings. What they do have is more scope than most of their rivals, and I think Impervious looks slightly better suited to the task, particularly with no reservations about her jumping (please don't let me have jinxed her jumping).

Suggestion: Back 5/2 Impervious to win, or retire to the bar and watch.

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5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, 2m 4 1/2f)

To the lucky last. Erm. We're probably looking for a potential Grade 1 horse of the future. The alumni for this final race includes Sir Des Champs, Don Poli, Killultagh Vic, Galopin Des Champs and Banbridge. All those mentioned were Irish-trained, too. So that will be my starting point.

The top three in the betting are all defensively short at time of writing: around 5/1 each. They are Spanish Harlem, Imagine, and Cool Survivor.

Spanish Harlem cost €360,000 at the Arqana sale last summer, and he'll pocket... checks notes... £39,000 if he comes out on top here. More to the point, if he does win, he's probably smart enough to be contesting for bigger purses in the not too distant future. He's gone to Willie's and, though a hurdle winner in France already, has yet to add to that tally in three races since the stable switch. Of course that might very well be by design and, in any case, he's been running in small fields where his French victoire was against 16 rivals.

Gordon has the other two at the top, Imagine another to pepper the places without winning in recent efforts. He steps up from two miles to this two and a half, and was still entered in the three mile Albert Bartlett until 48 hour decs: clearly connections have few reservations about his stamina. He's been second in a Grade 3 and a Listed race since November and this will have been the plan.

Cool Survivor is also a Gordie runner and he, too, was in the Spuds before routing here. He finished fourth in a 2m6f G1 at the DRF last time and, prior to that, had won and been second (G3) over three miles. This step back in trip is a small niggle for a horse who, while doubtlessly having a splash of class, seems to stay very well.

At bigger prices, Firm Footings is in the same ownership and trainership (sic) as Imagine; he's had plenty of practice in defeat and steps up in grade for handicap debut with, like many others, the handibrake presumed off now. And Haxo is another Willie possible. Like all those previously mentioned, he's making his handicap bow after a couple of mark-securing efforts. His sixty length sixth in last year's Ballymore doesn't read as promisingly as some of the other form lines but he could still run well.

If there is to be a British winner, it's most likely to be from the barn of either Dan Skelton or Paul Nicholls. Skelton saddles two, Molly Olly's Wishes and West To The Bridge, but both are hooj prices and not remotely obvious winners even allowing for Dan being the UK Man in this setup. Dr Ditcheat has a credible contender in Irish Hill, a highly progressive handicapper that has won his last three, including most recently in a good Class 2 at Ascot. His problem is that we know pretty much what he is: he could improve three or four pounds but the winner here is probably going to find eight to ten pounds on its published rating.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Pace Map

Plenty of pace on, as you'd expect for a big field handicap hurdle at Cheltenham; perhaps more so because it's a conditional jockeys' race.

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Selection

I obviously don't know. The market has been a fair guide to the Martin Pipe winner, with seven of the last nine sent off 12/1 or shorter (and one other at 14/1). I'd rather have a small interest in the top of the market than set fire to money lower down the lists; and I'll be a bit left and right by this point anyway - Friday is Brown Bear hostelry day!

I'm not trying to be too clever here, and I've had a quid each on 9/2 Spanish Harlem and 5/1 Imagine, win only. I told you I wasn't trying to be clever.

Suggestion: Back Spanish Harlem and/or Imagine, win only. Or bet something else. It's your life, after all 😉

*

And so, the end of a testing but glorious four days is in sight. Win or lose, it's a pleasure to fritter so many hours in the form book, and to share my cogitations with you: it's normally the case that I get many more points for the 'working out' than for scribbling down the correct answer. But, for weirdos like me (and maybe like you, too), the joy is almost all in the working out; in the puzzle. All the same, it obviously helps when we land on a fat one or two.

Be lucky.

Matt

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/03/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.30 Cheltenham
  • 6.50 Dundalk
  • 7.50 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Chelmsford

And I think we'll head back to the Festival, where I can't promise another successful tricast/trifecta, but I'll do my best to unravel the 3.30 Cheltenham, an 11-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ stayers' hurdle over a left-handed three miles on soft ground that will be better in places...

The obvious form horse here is Blazing Khal, who has won his last five and both Home By The Lee & Teahupoo come here seeking hat-tricks. Gold Tweet won the Cleeve hurdle on UK debut last time out and Henri le Farceur now makes his UK debut after landing a French Grade 2 hurdle on his last run. Yet despite eight top three finishes from his last eleven runs, Ashdale Bob hasn't won any of them.

None of these have raced in the last month with Klassical Dream and Henri le Farceur both coming off 100days+ layoffs. It's not a handicap, so they'll all carry 11st10lbs, but based on official ratings, that puts Teahupoo best off, a pound clear of Flooring Porter (seeking to win this for the third year in a row) and Klassical Dream.

Ashdale Bob, Dashel Drasher & Henri le Farceur are yet to win over a similar trip, but DD has at least won at Cheltenham before (2m4½f) and Klassical Dream has won here over 2m½f, but is three from four at 2m7½f/3m elsewhere. Blazing Khal, Flooring Porter, Gold Tweet, Paisley Park and Sire du Berlais have all won over course and distance with Gold Tweet's win in the Cleeve Hurdle ten weeks ago the most recent.

As for class and going, we have Instant Expert on hand...

I'm immediately going to say no to Ashdale Bob on form, going, class and distance, whilst Dashel Drasher is weak on class too, as is Home by the Lee (trip an issue too) and Sire du Berlais has poor soft ground form, hasn't the best Class 1 record and essentially just doesn't win often enough. He owes his yard/owner nothing, but I can't see him figuring here. All of which sounds a bit brutal, but I'm now just considering...

The pace profile for similar past races...

...says that those setting the pace are quite often a target for the others to aim at, as is often the case here at Cheltenham and based on the field's recent runs...

...you'd say Flooring Porter was at the most risk, but the caveat here is that he has made all to win this race in each of the last two years, so I wouldn't be ruling him or any of my five out on pace just yet, meaning we'll need a closer look at them...

BLAZING KHAL took five goes to get off the mark in bumpers, but is foru from four since, winning a couple of grade 2 races here in the process in 2021. Returned from 14 months off to win another gr2 at Navan last month, but this is his his toughest task yet, running at Gr1 for the first time.

FLOORING PORTER knows his way around this track/trip after tapes to post wins in this very race in each of the last two renewals. His preparations haven't gone as well this time around and the standard looks higher here, but he'll be in the mix.

GOLD TWEET ran well in france before coming to the UK for the C&D Cleeve Hurdle almost seven weeks where he relished trip and the soft ground. Still unexposed at the trip and should go well again, even if this is a stronger field.

PAISLEY PARK isn't the horse that won seven on the bounce from Oct '18 to Jan '20, including the 2019 version of this race, but is still a formidable opponent. Has been there or thereabouts again of late, but was almost 10 lengths behind Gold Tweet last time out and with that winner looking capable of more, that possibly rules this runner out.

TEAHUPOO has won a Gr1 and Gr2 in his last two outings, demonstrating his stamina at the trip and on heavy ground and for me, he's probably the one to beat, having beaten Honeysuckle by almsot three lengths in December despite conceding 7lbs.

Summary

You can make a case for all of the five I've still got left in at the moment , but with four places up for grabs, I'm leaving Paisley Park out, as at 11yo, he's just not quite up with the others from which I like Teahupoo the best. Teahupoo is the 10/3 jt fav with Blazing Khal right now with Flooring Porter and Gold Tweet best priced at 11/2 and 11/1 respectively, so I'd be hoping for Teahupoo to win and Gold Tweet would be my E/W option.

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day 3 Preview, Tips

And so to the second half. Still 14 races to go at, including the Stayers' Hurdle, Ryanair Chase and, of course, Friday's Gold Cup. Lots of smaller supporting fish that might also taste sweet, starting with...

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4f)

A bigger field than last year's though, with just four then, that's not difficult!

We have a worthy favourite in Mighty Potter, who brings a four-race unbeaten streak and a career tally of seven wins from nine starts to the table. He's a Grade 1 winner on both his most recent spins, each over this sort of trip, and on form he is clear of his field. If you want a counterargument, it's this: in last year's Supreme he arrived similarly solid-looking off the back of a Grade 1 novice hurdle gold; but he was just not engaged on the day, pulling up a long way out. This will be only his second cross-water away day and, while a body of evidence of one race is hardly bombproof, it is a niggle.

If MP should falter, who may benefit? Most obvious would be Banbridge, winner of the Martin Pipe a year ago and second to El Fabiolo over an inadequate trip most recently. He was beaten ten lengths there, and 18 lengths the time before by Mighty Potter, so one might reasonably argue that the jolly will have to notably under-perform in order for that form to get spun around. It is also the case that Banbridge seems to prefer better ground, his two wins on soft coming in run of the mill novice hurdles where he probably outclassed his rivals.

A veteran at nine, in the context of a novice chase, is Appreciate It, winner of the 2021 Ballymore, second in the 2020 Champion Bumper, and only 10/3 in last year's Champion Hurdle, where he ran well for a long time before lack of race fitness told. There are no such fitness concerns this time after three seasonal outings, two of them wins, but he was comprehensively outpointed by Blue Lord last time and now steps up half a mile in trip. As a son of Jeremy it's not a foregone conclusion he'll stay, especially on rain softened ground; but he travels like he probably will (he did win a bumper over this trip very early in his career, and was a point to point winner before that, for whatever that form is worth now).

The first UK runner in the lists is Balco Coastal, a close up second to Gerri Colombe in the G1 Scilly Isles last time. He'd previously won a decent novices' handicap chase on soft ground lending credence to his claim to underfoot apathy, but his overall level seems a little below the Irish trio.

Stage Star has been a super horse for his myriad enthusiastic owners, and comes here having won seven of his 12 starts, including the G1 Challow Hurdle in 2021. He then pulled up in Grade 1's at both Cheltenham and Aintree, but has got back in the groove this term over a fence. To wit, he's notched three times from four starts - second on the other occasion, in Grade 2 company - and loves it soft. Conditions will be ideal but I'm not convinced he's up to this exacting level.

James du Berlais a hard horse to peg. He was second in Grade 1's at Auteuil and Punchestown over hurdles, and bolted up from the front in a beginners' chase on soft ground. But, in Mighty Potter's G1 last time, he was stuffed. It's possible he'll appreciate the softer ground but he'll certainly need to to reverse those positions.

Turners Novices' Chase Pace Map

This has pace, mainly from Stage Star, Appreciate It and Christopher Wood, but also Banbridge can go forward; so it'll be a true test. Mighty Potter is expected to be handy without getting involved in the battle for the lead.

Turners Novices' Chase Selection

There is every chance Mighty Potter just wins but he's an unexciting price after flopping so badly twelve months back. As such, it might be worth chancing the old man of the party, Appreciate It, in what could be a fair slog if it doesn't stop raining. I feel Banbridge might want better ground, and the rest of the Irish - and all of the British - don't look good enough.

Suggestion: Back Appreciate It at 4/1.

*

2.10 Pertemps Final (Grade 3 handicap, 3m)

Another absolute melee. Coming into last season, the Irish had won the previous six renewals, and held most of the aces for a seventh. But it didn't play out that way. In fact, not only was Hughie Morrison's Third Wind first past the post, but home team runners filled out the podium and five of the first six places. Hmm...

Some of that will be down to happenstance and some at the hand of the BHA's handicapping team, who have recalibrated the relationship between UK and Irish ratings. Whatever, it's an interesting additional consideration to lob into the pot.

My shortlist is Thanksforthehelp, The Bosses Oscar, Level Neverending and Walking On Air. This quintet is trained and owned by 'the right people', has the right unexposed profile, and looks sure to handle conditions.

The Bosses Oscar was second in this off a nine pound higher mark two years ago. He pulled up in it last year but that was after a season chasing where he mainly pulled up. Back to hurdling this term he's been on the premises throughout, and a fast run big field is no problem to him. He's trained by Gordon Elliott, triple Pertemps winner between 2018 and 2020.

He also saddles Level Neverending for the same owners, Bective Stud. This one is far less exposed, having made his handicap debut in the Warwick qualifier, staying on into a qualifying position and never nearer. He's a big price dark horse for all that he might not be good enough against this level of opposition.

Walking On Air runs for Nicky Henderson and Mrs Michael Tabor - Doreen, in fact. He's another lightly raced sort who opened his handicap account in the Exeter qualifier. All form so far has been on a sound surface, which is a concern unless the track dries out pronto.

David Pipe is a Pertemps winner - twice in fact, with the same wonderful stick, Buena Vista. His old man won the race further back and 'Dave' has a good chance with Thanksforthehelp, facile winner of the Chepstow qualifier last time. The notion that last day winners 'have shown their hand' doesn't really fit with the fact that last day winners have taken ten Pertemps Finals since 1997, from 108 qualifiers, for a +11 SP profit. They've also hit the frame at a 26% clip. The flip side is that the last to achieve a winning double was Presenting Percy in 2017.

Lots of others to consider, naturally.

Pertemps Final Pace Map

Potentially furiously run, it will certainly be strongly run. That might suit the strong travellers further back, who can hold a position through the early heat and play their hand late.

Pertemps Final Selection

This is another race where extra places give us extra chances. In that spirit, I want The Bosses Oscar, Level Neverending and Thanksforthehelp on my ticket - and I don't mind splitting (unevenly) between three picks at all. If you only want to back one, take your choice from that trio or any of the other horses in the field!

Suggestion: Make sure you get all the extra places you can, and consider one or more of the three above.

*

2.50 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1, 2m 4 1/2f)

The much maligned Ryanair is one of my favourite races of the week. I get the argument that it dilutes the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but the corollary is that it produces a high class heat all of its own for those not fast enough for the former and without sufficient stamina for the latter: it is truly an intermediate Championship race.

Take Allaho in the past two years, for example; he's blitzed his rivals from the front and, in so doing, has recorded a pair of the best performances at those respective Festivals. Prior to that, Frodon and Bryony provided one of the stories of the week in 2019, and the likes of Un De Sceaux, Vautour, Cue Card, Imperial Commander, and Albertas Run give the roll of honour a robust look. So, no, not for me that the Ryanair is a misstep: it's a cracking race and, generally, a very good betting race.

Perhaps not this season, however, on the latter point at least. Because, in the absence of Allaho, we have Shishkin. The winner of a Supreme and an Arkle pulled up in last year's Champion Chase and flunked behind Edwardstone in this season's Tingle Creek: missing, presumed gone at it. Until, that is, a wind op and a step up in trip conspired to elicit a performance as good as he's ever produced in the Ascot Chase over this trip.

That level of form, and plenty of other from prior to last season's Fez flop, puts him a mile - or maybe half a stone in ratings terms - clear of his field here. But before going all in, consider that he was similarly well-fancied off a similarly rated prep a year ago. That big effort left its mark, albeit that the manner of the result was visually a lot more punishing, Shishkin going toe to toe with Energumene in a heavyweight scrap for our time.

So who, if anyone, can lower Shishkin's black and yellow checkerboard colours? With the news that Allaho would miss the party, Willie was never going to be troubled in shuffling his pack to find a sub. He's come up with Blue Lord, who looked world-beating at Christmas before failing to live with barn mate Gentleman De Mee at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. Prior to that, Blue Lord had done well to hold off former King George winner Tornado Flyer on his seasonal bow over the Ryanair trip. He's high class, but I'm just not sure what his trip is - two and a quarter miles, perhaps?

Janidil got closest to Allaho last year, having been held up away from the tearaways on the front. That turned out to be a good tactic as, although he got nowhere near 'the speed of the speed' Allaho, he plugged on past; but it's reasonable to argue he may not even have been second had Conflated not fallen two out. Janidil had two subsequent spring spins, both non-completions, and has had just one go this season. That was in the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, where he held off Haut En Couleurs in a small but fairly select field.

This distance may be the making of Fury Road, who has struggled to see out three miles at the top table on a number of occasions. He won a Grade 2 over 2m4f in early November last year before taking bronze in a brace of Leopardstown three mile G1's; further back, he was just outstayed by Monkfish in the 2020 Albert Bartlett.

What to make of Envoi Allen? Winner of the 2019 Champion Bumper and the 2020 Ballymore, he's actually won a couple of Grade 1's since including as recently as this season. He's six from eight at around this distance, hurdles and fences, and, if you can overlook a very poor showing in the King George, he's a place player.

I don't give the rest much of a chance.

Ryanair Chase Pace Map

Steady away here, most likely; Chacun Poir Soi, fabulous old boy, may be near the front but won't be tearing off. Should be a good even tempo.

Ryanair Chase Selection

This is Shishkin's race to lose. He looked very, very good in the Ascot Chase last time and a run with seven pounds of that is probably good enough. I don't really like the 'without' market so that's it - Shishkin.

Suggestion: Back 8/11 Shishkin to generate some eights for any spare elevens you have* - or just watch a champ in action.

*this does not constitute robust financial advice. Caveat emptor.

*

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

The second highlight of day three is the Stayers' Hurdle, run over three miles. Bizarrely, it is not always the test of stamina the name suggests: in the last two seasons, Danny Mullins has ridden his rivals into a trance aboard Flooring Porter with, last season, his stop-start tempo on the front end before gearing up in the run to two out. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me thrice?

Although FP's form figures look a little less appealing this season, he's been running to a similar level of form and he seems to handle most ground. Trainer Gavin Cromwell will have again peaked him for this gig, but very few horses manage to win three Stayers' Hurdles (or indeed three of any Festival Championship race). That said, there isn't a bundle of obvious pace alternates in the field.

We haven't seen a lot of the seven-year-old Charles Byrnes-trained Blazing Khal, but what we have seen has typically been other horses following him home. Indeed, he's had just four races since 2020, three of them the following year and all of them victories. That two were achieved around Cheltenham is a boon to his prospects, as is his proven speed for shorter trips as well as three-mile winning form. This will be a first step up to Grade 1 company but, after three successive G2 scores, he's ready. Byrnes tends to know what he has and so the layoff - sole spin since 2021 was last month - isn't unduly concerning, though there is scope for the dreaded 'bounce' with that profile. There is a small niggle about his rider, the trainer's son, who will be unable to claim his allowance here.

Ex-French-trained Teahupoo was in the care of Gabriel Leenders prior to his rehoming at Gordon Elliott's Cullentra House yard, and his former conditioner has Gold Tweet in this year's line up. Let's deal with Teahupoo first. He's a typically early blooming French-bred who has won seven of his nine Irish starts, including this season's Hatton's Grace Hurdle, Grade 1. He was soundly beaten last term in both the Champion Hurdle and the Punchestown equivalent, but has resumed winning ways over further either side of the new year. Most of his good form is on soft or heavy ground so he won't mind any rain, and if it turns into a slog that ought to suit him.

Gold Tweet is another for whom wet ground holds no terrors: it was soft when he won the Cleeve, and very soft when he scored at Fontainebleu in November. But defeating Dashel Drasher and Paisley Park, both fantastic sticks but surely on the decline now, probably leaves him with plenty to find in this deeper field. Gold Tweet has never won above G3 in France (and that in a chase race).

Another I'm struggling to quantify is Home By The Lee. Joseph O'Brien trains this eight-year-old whose timber-topping form prior to this season was 218U113P100P226R; he's managed to put back-to-back wins together, in a Grade 2 and then a three mile Grade 1, so what gives? A charitable perspective of his Stayers' run last year would show that he stayed on having been outpaced mid-race; his case hangs on it being a thorough stamina test, which is by no means a given. In any event, he's short enough in a race of if's and but's.

Willie sends Klassical Dream and he might just be the over-priced one. Sure, he's quirky, and he probably needs to be delivered on the line because he travels a lot better than he finds when let down; but he's a six-time (SIX!) Grade 1 winner including three of his last four Grade 1's - so no back number - and comes here off the back of a narrow defeat by Teahupoo over an inadequate two and a half mile trip.

Of the rest, Ashdale Bob might be involved in making the pace - he's led or been prominent in his last three, and clung tough for 3rd of 23 in last year's Coral Cup - and is admirably consistent. His form in the last three seasons reads 11F912U373232342: almost always thereabouts when completing. I really hope he puts it up to Flooring Porter (though, of course, there will be others who wish the opposite!).

It's tough to make much of case for the stars of yesteryear like Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher.

Stayers' Hurdle Pace Map

Surely Flooring Porter doesn't get an easy lead for a third year running? Surely?! Maybe he does, though both Ashdale Bob and Dashel Drasher can go from the front, too. The French runner, Henri Le Farceur, led last time but is more typically waited with.

Stayers' Hurdle Selection

Very difficult indeed. I'm taking a chance on Klassical Dream, win only, in the hope that they go fast and he can cruise into contention. He's as likely to flop as to win so not an each way play, but hoping he'll give a run for the money.

Suggestion: Back Klassical Dream win only at 10/1.

*

4.10 Festival Plate (Grade 3 handicap, 2m 4 1/2f)

Another borderline impossible handicap, this time a chase, and the first of two such races on the day. This is the least trends'y race of the week, with the Irish faring well enough, so too the Brits; young horses and old, exposed and unexposed, all getting on the roll of honour. It's a race that Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have never won, Gordon Elliott has only won once and Nicky Henderson hasn't won since 2006! It's also a race where four of the last five winners were priced 5/1 or shorter, which is disappointing unless you fancy So Scottish.

That horse, in the care of Emmet Mullins, Plate winning trainer two years ago, looks an obvious contender for all that he's likely to face deeper ground and has been off longer than most winners; though Ballynagour in 2014 returned after the exact same 117 day layoff to win.

Il Ridoto was a soft ground winner over course and distance last time and, up eight pounds, still looks viable for Nicholls. He might again bid to make all. And a really interesting one if he stays is Frero Banbou. Trained by Venetia Williams, three-time Plate winner, this lad was desperately outpaced in last year's Grand Annual over two miles before making up ground on a fading field into eventual third. He's in the right hands and should be able to lie up with them more easily over this longer range. Venetia also runs Gemirande, a trip specialist who has progressed by more than a stone this season and, not out of the first two in his last six starts, may still be improving.

Millions of others with chances.

Festival Plate Pace Map

There's not a massive amount of early go, though Gemirande and Coole Cody will be there. So, too, perhaps Shakem Up'Arry and Embittered. Should be a fair chance for most.

Festival Plate Selection

The simple answer is So Scottish, and he might be a win saver. But, with as many bonus places as I can get, I'll be splitting my stake between the Brits Il Ridoto, Frero Banbou and Gemirande, and hoping for the best.

Suggestion: Take a couple of your choosing, and save on So Scottish.

*

4.50 Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2, 2m 1f)

We all have a least favourite Festival race, and this one is mine. I'm generally accepting of the new races but definitely struggle with the mares' novices' hurdle. Anyway, that's my problem, and it will have a winner to find, so let's get on to that.

With seven renewals so far, Willie won the first five - sigh/wow! - before Henry de B took over with a 1-2 in 2021, where there was an Irish 1-2-3-4, none of them Willie. Then, last year, up rocked Love Envoi, trained by a Brit, Harry Fry, with another Brit in second, Willie third.

And it's a UK mare, Luccia, who is short at the top of the betting lists this time around. She's been an easy winner of all four starts to date, two bumpers and two novices, but hasn't jumped on softer than good ground yet. She could well be the winner; the problem is that this is one of those races where there are a number of unexposed types whose form lines are untested against each other.

Henry de Bromhead has options in a race named after his late son - poor family 🙁 - and it will be unbearably poignant if one of his can win. Chief among them might be Magical Zoe, herself unbeaten in three. She's won on soft in Grade 3 company and, while not as visually impressive as Luccia, she's expected to appreciate any stiffer test of stamina as a result of a fast pace. She was 18/1 that last day and beat the first two in the market into second and third: it didn't look fluky.

A really interesting contender, not to be confused with the de Bromhead runner, is Princess Zoe. You might know her from such as her Group 1 Prix du Cadran score or multiple Galway triumphs. She scraped home in a dead heat on hurdling debut over 2m4f, and it might be that a truly run two miles or so with a bit of cut is optimal. Her jumping lacked a little polish on that timber-topping bow, as it was entitled to do, and, if well schooled since, she's unquestionably high class.

Four of Willie's five Dawn Run winners were five-year-olds, which might just be coincidence; but more Dawn Runners tend to be six or older. Mullins' 5yo entry is Lot Of Joy, who has a Lot To Do on the ratings; but she looks a typical improver, having run up in her first two spins in huge fields before putting a dozen lengths between herself and the nearest of 14 rivals last time. She was 1/7 that day so did nothing unexpected, but that brings her to Cheltenham on an improvement arc and less exposed than many others.

You Wear It Well was second to Hermes Allen in the Grade 1 Challow, a race working out very well. I don't know how Hermes has done at time of writing, but a big performance from him in the Ballymore would clearly be a hint towards this mare's chance. She's fine on all ground and easily won a Grade 2 last time. Both the Challow and that G2 were over further, however, so the drop back in trip is not certain to suit.

Two more to mention, from a cast of 21, are Poetic Music and Halka Du Tabert. Poetic Music was a very good bumper filly, running sixth in Facile Vega's Champion Bumper as a four-year-old. She's taken well to hurdling, winning twice, though was no match for Luccia when they met three back. She wants a battle and she wants a strong pace, and she'll get both of those here: outside squeak.

Halka Du Tabert was well touted and showed the rumours to be on point when slamming Eabha Grace, a Grade 3 winner at the weekend, in a big field maiden. She was outpaced in a small field G3 last time, and this is much more her setup: she could be a contender.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Pace Map

Hard to know how this will go with so many inexperienced mares. On what we've seen, Fox Girl and Halka du Tabert will be forwardly placed from the outset, while Luccia is more likely to track those trailblazers.

Mares' Novices' Hurdle Selection

Lots who will turn out better than they've had a chance to show so far, and Luccia - whilst an obvious win chance - is a measly price. Against her, I'll chance a couple each way: Magical Zoe and Halka Du Tabert. Both are likely to relish a strong pace and possess the battling qualities required for a scrum amongst 20+ inexperienced mares.

Suggestion: Back either or both of Magical Zoe and Halka du Tabert, each way a pleasure.

*

5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Chase (Class 2 Handicap, 3m2f)

The second handicap chase of the day, this one over three and a quarter miles and the exclusive domain of amateur riders. However, a quick squint at the winning jocks in recent years demonstrates the level of professionalism in the amateur ranks: just two of the last nine were claiming, and both have now gone professional. Jamie Codd has won the Kim Muir four times since 2009.

In betting terms, there were two 40/1 winners in the past eight years, both British-trained, and the other six were all single figure returns, four of them trained in Ireland.

Favourite this year is Stumptown, on the hat-trick and trained by Gavin Cromwell. He popped up at Sandown last time, eking out seven lengths over the second that day and earning enough of a ratings bump to book his Kim Muir ticket. Although he won a maiden hurdle on soft, his recent best has been achieved on a sounder surface; that doesn't mean he won't handle wetter as well as drier, just that he might not - and he's awful short if you're not sure.

Mr Incredible bids, I think, to be Willie Mullins' first handicap chase winner at the Festival. I believe he's 0 from 37 though he's had some placed. That's clearly not fuelling optimism and the horse - claimed by his rider to be a nutjob - has form figures that lurch from a Scrabble rack to a clutch of podium positions. Which Mr Incredible will show up today?

A horse we were interested in buying a couple of years back is Farinet, and he's been a fine servant for connections. He's trained by the first lady of Cheltenham Festival handicap chases, Venetia Williams, and wasn't beaten too far over course and distance on New Year's Day.

Beauport arrives here rather than the Ultima, and that may be the proverbial tip in itself. Trainer by the Twister, Nigel Twiston-Davies, he loves soft ground and a trip.

At the other end of the handicap, Ben Pauling - winning trainer of the Grand Annual last year - saddles a couple, the more interesting of which is probably Anightinlambourn. He's won three of his last four and was second on the other occasion; two of those runs were here over this sort of trip, but on quicker ground. If it dries out he becomes very interesting, I think.

And I've almost certainly not mentioned the winner!

Kim Muir Pace Map

It's Venetia to the fore and aft, everyone else in between. Farinet likely goes to the front while Chambard will be played late. Lots of other occasional pace pressers means this will be a stern examination of jumping over an exacting distance.

Kim Muir Selection

Tricky. Very tricky. I'm going to try Beauport and Anightinlambourn (good to soft or quicker only) against the field.

Suggestion: Back a couple against the field, with lots of extra places. Maybe the same two as me, and maybe not!

*

It's a very tough day is Thursday at the Festival, so well done if you come out in front. If you don't, there's always Gold Cup day...

Good luck!

Matt

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/03/23

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A nice 11/1 placer and near 12/1 tricast/trifecta from the opening day of the Festival on Tuesday warmed things up for me nicely, but back to business now.

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 6.15 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have, sadly, generated no runners for me to consider, so I'm going to take a look at the last of the 'free' races, the 7.15 Newcastle, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a straight 7f on standard going tapeta...

My initial thoughts were that this would be a contest between Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds and Lord Rapscallion, but let's see what the card and tools us. None of the field won last time out, but Alexander James was a runner-up and Walking On Clouds, Lord Rapscallion & Swiss Ace all finished third, whilst Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds, Lord Rapscallion and Abnaa have all won at least two of their last five outings.

Justcallmepete, Lord Rapscallion and Abnaa all drop in class to run here with the other five all have raced at this grade LTO. Both Swiss Ace and Abnaa are note as fast finishers and Archduke Ferdinand makes both a handicap and a UK debut after racing to some success in Sweden, although he was disqualified in each of his last two runs for 'medical irregularities'.

He's also likely to need the run after 199 days off track whilst all his rivals have been seen in the last 1 to 3 weeks and he's up against three former course and distance winners in the shape of Swiss Ace, Gobi Sunset and Abnaa. Alexander James and Walking On Clouds have both won here over a mile and 6f respectively whilst Archduke Ferdinand won over 7f on dirt in Sweden and Lord Rapscallion has a couple of Chelmsford 7f successes to his name.

Instant Expert, as ever, has all the relevant form under these conditions...

...where aside from failing to make the frame on his only previous visit to Newcastle, Lord Rapscallion catches the eye and it should be said that his previous run here was at Class 2 over two years ago! Justcallmepete gets the going, but has a poor record at 7f and the same can be said about Walking On Clouds too, but if we look at place form, there's a school of thought that he might be better than those numbers...

Unusually for a straight 7f track, we do have a bit of a draw bias here...

...where it has been advantageous to be drawn in the higher half of the draw, which will be music to the ears of those following Walking On Clouds and if you can get a high draw here, the prescribed tactics are to race prominently tucked in behind the leader(s), according to the heat map...

...and that's because those races above that we used for the draw stats have been won as follows...

Walking On Clouds is unlikely to race prominently though, as his average pace score from his last four outings suggests more of a mid-division position, but at a 15% strike rate the high draw/mid-div combo doesn't do too shabbily. The stats suggest Lord Rapscallion will keep him company, whilst Abnaa sits out back in a race that Gobi Sunset is likely to set the tempo...

...and if we transpose our horses' running styles onto that heatmap...

...you'd probably say Gobi Sunset from a low draw and Swiss Ace/Walking On Clouds from the higher stalls as the ones catching the eye.

Summary

I started off with the thought that this would be a contest between (in racecard order) Justcallmepete, Walking On Clouds & Lord Rapscallion and it was those three plus Abnaa who have been in the best recent form. Lord Rapscallion was the first to emerge from Instant Expert, but when we looked at place form, both Gobi Sunset and Walking On Clouds came to the fore.

The draw seems to favour Walking On Clouds, Swiss Ace and possibly Abnaa, whilst Swiss Ace probably had the best pace profile and it was he, Gobi Sunset and Walking On Clouds I noted from the pace/draw heatmap.

So what does that mean? Well, it means that purely on form/namechecks, I'd be siding with Walking On Clouds with Lord Rapscallion as next best. As for another for the frame/tricast etc, it's any of Justcallmepete, Abnaa, Gobi Sunset and Swiss Ace and I think that Abnaa might just be the one. He's down in class, gets weight all round, he's a fast finisher and won over course and distance three starts ago. As along as he's not too far off the pace, he could fly home and grab a place, making a nice 11/1 E/W bet if you're so inclined.

As for my 1-2, Walking On Clouds is a 9/2 shot, which is fair and Lord Rapscallion is an equally fairly priced 8/1. also good for E/W punters.

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day Two Preview, Trends, Tips

Day two, Wednesday, and a similar combination of novice races, handicaps and a Championship race, this time the Queen Mother Champion Chase. As ever, it's a one-thirty start for the...

1.30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)

They say the Ballymore/Neptune/Baring Bingham is more of a speed test than the Supreme and, if very recent history is anything to go by "they" are right. The winners' finishing speeds in the Supreme in the past two years - the only two for which CourseTrack sectionals are available on the RTV website - were 100% each time, with the runners up coming home in around 94% each time. Meanwhile, in the Ballymore, the winners' closing sectionals were 102.2% and 106% while the runners up recorded 101.4% and 103.8%. What does it all mean? Well, simply that we might be looking for a horse able to travel and quicken rather than one who gallops relentlessly.

To the form, and the only place to start is with the talking horse's talking horse, Impaire Et Passe. Reputedly the latest Pegasus on the Willie Mullins production line, he's unbeaten in a Nancy bumper before transferring to Closutton (for €155,000) and winning a brace of novice hurdles, the second of which was the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer. That race has been a stepping stone in the past for the same trainer's Mikael d'Haguenet, Vautour, Douvan and Min, amongst others. The first of those named won the Ballymore next time, while the other three all went Supreme (two of them winning, Min running second to Altior). So it is arguably the trusted prep for Mullins' top novice hurdlers, although the Grade 1 at the DRF is a more obvious candidate in that regard.

A winner of his maiden hurdle by 18 lengths, in a field of 24, that form looks very ordinary: none of the runners behind that day have won since, and they've collectively amassed 42 starts! Still, that's hardly Impaire Et Passe's fault as he fulfilled his end of the bargain by going so far clear. In that Moscow Flyer, run this year on heavy ground, he jumped well in the main though was a little clumsy at the last. The key thing with his chance, given that on form he has a bit to find, is the stable confidence. Mullins has a raft of talented novice hurdlers and yet this is the one seemingly most talked up: he must be good. But he is inexperienced and, as I say, does not yet have the best form.

Mullins also saddles Gaelic Warrior, second in last year's Fred Boodles and winner of all three of his starts this term, including in a valuable handicap hurdle, shouldering top weight, at the DRF. That form has already had some lustre added to it and, where IEP is a tad shy on experience, GW brings much more as a second season novice.

Splitting the Willie pair in the betting is the Paul Nicholls-trained Hermes Allen. Triumphant in all three of his races so far, he must have surprised a few at Ditcheat because he started out in a Stratford maiden hurdle before claiming the Grade 2 Hyde Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Grade 1 Challow at Newbury. That Challow form has worked out superbly well, with the 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and two of the pulled up also-rans winning since; not only winning, but three of them scoring in Pattern company. Hermes Allen is already a heck of a hurdler, but he could be a monster over fences next season.

The third string to Mullins' extremely stringy bow is Champ Kiely, winner of the Grade 1 Lawlor's Of Naas Novices' Hurdle last time. There he beat Irish Point, who won a Grade 3 at Naas on Sunday; the overall level of that form looks below others in the field, however. That said, the Champ handles any ground and has won four of his five career starts to date.

Barry Connell, boutique trainer of his own horses, has not just Marine Nationale in the Supreme but also Good Land in this. He's winner of his three completed starts this term, having unseated at the first in his hurdling debut. He was last seen winning the Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy over 2m6f at the DRF, and that is normally top form as illustrated in this article by Jon Shenton. [For info, the best novice hurdle run annually in Britain or Ireland tends to be the one at DRF won this year by Il Etait Temps].

Ho My Lord is a further Willie wunner, and is unbeaten in completed starts, a French bumper and an Irish maiden hurdle either side of a tumble at Leopardstown at Christmas. He completely unexposed, and as such wouldn't be a total shock winner; but his known level of form is stones below that in the book for some of his rivals.

I liked American Mike for the Supreme after his Champion Bumper second last year, but he seems to have completely lost his way since. It's not unheard of for horses to rediscover their best form at the Festival, but it is usually slightly more planned by connections - who were aiming at a handicap until running out of time to get the requisite fourth run under their belts. Mike looks somewhat homeless in terms of race fit this year; hoping he'll be back next season over a fence.

Ballymore Pace Map

Plenty of early dash, with Hermes Allen and American Mike, along with probably one or more of the Mullins lesser lights. Might be a little quicker than normal in the early stages.

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Selection

I have come round to the hype surrounding Impaire Et Passe, a horse who will have plenty of peers against which to compare his level at home. His stablemate Gaelic Warrior has the best public level of ability but the vibes are all for IeP. Still, the Warrior will likely be hard to keep out of the three and represents a fairly solid each way tickle.

Suggestion: Probably a race to bet Impaire Et Passe, even at relatively skinny odds. 5/1 Gaelic Warrior is a solid-looking each way alternative.

*

2.10 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)

Widely recalled as the RSA Chase, this is in fact the Broadway Novices' Chase, currently sponsored by Brown Advisory, an independent investment management firm apparently. No matter: it always has been and presumably always will be a three mile novice chase and an early opportunity for chasers to advertise future Gold Cup credentials: in that context, it's typically a very good race. The last couple of winners, L'Homme Presse and Monkfish, have absented for the following year's Gold Cup; but going back a decade, Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere were back to back Broadway/Gold Cup doublers.

This year, the most fancied runner is Gerri Colombe, and not without good cause. He's already a dual Grade 1 winner, in the Faugheen at Limerick at Christmas and in the Scilly Isles at Sandown last month; and, though both of those races were over half a mile shorter than he'll face here, he's been going on to assert at the finish each time. Still, he's not guaranteed to stay in a top class test such as this. One asset that will help is his jumping, which was outstanding at Sandown: long or short, he was always clever and didn't tickle a twig at any of the 17 fences. Gerri is a very worthy favourite.

One thing the jolly has not yet done is race around Cheltenham; the same cannot be said of The Real Whacker. Patrick Neville's seven-year-old is unbeaten in two chases at the track, most recently when beating Monmiral three lengths in the Grade 2 Dipper. He, too, has been very good at his obstacles to date and may have more to give: perhaps he'll need to as a line through Monmiral gives him a bit to find with GC - though it's fair to say the collateral horse wouldn't be a reliable yardstick even if reliable yardsticks were a reliable yardstick, if you see what I mean. In any case, his defeat of Thunder Rock (reopposes) was much more in line with Gerri C's margin over the same horse, so if you're into collateral you can choose your poison.

Philip Hobbs has recently announced a joint licence plan whereby long-time assistant Johnson White will share the honour; but before that Thyme Hill will test his mettle for the current sole licensee here. A couple of years the senior of Gerri and the Whacker, Thyme Hill has been a top class staying hurdler, running second in last year's Stayers' Hurdle as well as winning the G1 Liverpool Hurdle, the G1 Challow as a novice, and running third in the 2019 Champion Bumper here. He was also fourth in the Albert Bartlett of 2020, giving him Festival form of 342 in Grade 1's.

Although it feels like this feller has been around forever he only spent three seasons hurdling; and the manner of his Feltham/Kauto Star win at Kempton on Boxing Day - by 15 lengths from McFabulous - was striking. The form however has plenty of question marks with the second pulling up as odds on favourite next time; and the other two runners at Kempton failing to complete. Thyme Hill came from off a sizzling pace that day to barrel away from a couple of tired rivals, an approach that perhaps again gives him a chance to pick up pieces here.

Remember Sir Gerhard? Sporting the union flag colours of Cheveley Park but raced in Ireland for better prize money (sigh), he cost four hundred grand at the end of the 2019. That looked a fairly chunky price tag but he's since recouped more than half of it, which is more than most racehorses achieve! A win here would add another hundred bags to the total and offer the prospect of him getting his nose in front financially (obviously, ignoring training and transport costs - who bothers with those?!).

More materially, what of his form chance? Well, he infamously 'stole' the 2021 Champion Bumper from Kilcruit (pocket talk) and went on to win last year's Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at the Festival. This season he's been sighted just once, when bagging a beginners' chase by 38 lengths from the occasionally-very-good-but-not-on-this-particular-occasion Largy Debut. That was in spite of a horlicks of an error, which would be a concern here in terms of chasing experience. Yes, he won a point to point back yon but this wouldn't be the gig to come in underdone. Still, he's plenty of class and ability, so is not easily discounted.

The aforementioned Thunder Rock has been beaten by both Gerri Colombe and The Real Whacker so what chance has he here? Both of those defeats were at around two and a half miles, and the run behind the Whacker was at Cheltenham (2m5f, soft) where the closing comment was, "stayed on final 110 yards". That doesn't really tell the full story: Thunder Rock was last of five three furlongs out and closed all the way to the line. Meanwhile, The Real Whacker - who'd led them a merry dance from flag fall - was getting to the end of his soap-on-a-rope. This extra three furlongs is what brings Olly Murphy's charge into the picture, and he's a price against the top of the market.

The mare Galia Des Liteaux seems to be very well regarded by the Skelton yard, and has looked very good a couple of times this term. Her best run was her most recent, when surging 13 lengths clear of her field in a Grade 2 three mile novice chase at Warwick. The going was heavy that day, as it was when she won a Listed novice chase at Bangor earlier in the season, and that appears to be the key to her: the wetter the better. She was pulled up in the Kauto Star/Feltham when failing to get into a rhythm; that can happen to a horse without necessarily being the death knell to its Festival chance - see for example Bobs Worth.

By contrast, Adamantly Chosen has plenty of good ground form. In his latest pair of races, he's been second in two and a half mile Grade 1's to Mighty Potter and Gerri Colombe - not beaten comprehensively either time, and staying on both times - which puts him in the picture here. He's been supplemented for this, another indication that his chance is credible.

RSA Chase Pace Map

Likely just an even gallop here, with Harry Skelton the prime contender to take them along on Galia Des Liteaux. The Real Whacker has gone forward the last twice, however, so there's a chance of some early contention.

RSA Chase Selection

A race where Gerri Colombe is an obvious and legitimate favourite but a bit on the skinny side pricewise. Of his rivals, I quite like the claims of Sir Gerhard, Galia Des Liteaux (soft ground only), Thunder Rock and Adamantly Chosen (good to soft or quicker), and I think it's an each way sort of a race - though we may end up playing for the place part behind Gerri.

Suggestion: Consider 15/2 Galia Des Liteaux (soft or heavy) or 18/1 Adamantly Chosen good to soft or quicker) each way or without the favourite.

*

2.50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

A big field handicap hurdle, inscrutable in the extreme to these peepers. A bit of 'black box' shortlisting leaves me with HMS Seahorse, Beacon Edge, Captain Conby, and Bold Endeavour.

HMS Seahorse runs for Paul Nolan, the trainer of Mrs Milner, last year's Pertemps Final winner. He seemed to improve a good bit when needing a few extra pounds to get in here stepping up in trip last time; and he won in the style of a horse with a good bit more up his sleeve.

The Noel Meade-trained Beacon Edge was third Stayers' Hurdle favourite Blazing Khal in the G2 Boyne Hurdle last time, and was a G2 winner at this trip a couple of years ago. He's handily weighted for this handily-cap debut.

Eddie Sheehy is the sort of 'no name' trainer whose runner slips a tad under the radar in races like these; and who can get the job done a la Peter Fahey and Paul Hennessey two years ago. Captain Conby is tough and consistent, and was good enough to still be in the mix in the G1 Mersey Novices' Hurdle when coming down at the second last a year ago. He seems to handle any ground, too.

Best of the home team might be the Nicky Henderson-trained Bold Endeavour, who reverts to hurdles after running second (of three) in the G2 Reynoldstown last time. He looks on a very fair mark so, although the last Festival handicap hurdle winner to have been chasing on its most recent start was Andytown in 2009, that horse was trained by Hendo - and returned a similarly fat price to this one's likely SP. The King of Seven Barrows has attempted the feat eleven times since, faring no better than 7th (in 2021, Mill Green, 40/1) - that obviously tempers enthusiasm.

Coral Cup Pace Map

Probably not crazy fast early despite the huge field, with Bold Endeavour a possible designated driver. Could be a bit of elbows out action turning into the straight with doubtless a dozen and more still holding chances.

Coral Cup Selection

Skybet are *eight* places on this race and that feels the way to go, as long as their win price is competitive with best available. I'll be perming 12/1 Captain Conby, 10/1 HMS Seahorse and 12/1 Beacon Edge - another three very possible place prospects and three darts at hitting the win jackpot.

Coral Cup Suggestion: Split your stake three or four ways - and bet each way with as many extra places as you can find.

*

3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

The Champion Chase is the championship speed test for high class steeplechasers. Remarkably, when Energumene claimed the spoils a year ago, it was Willie Mullins' first Champion Chase success at the 15 time of asking. The other 14 included Un De Sceaux (2nd at 4/6), Douvan (7th at 2/9), and Chacun Pour Soi (3rd at 8/13), so it will have been good for him to get that monkey off his back. This year, Mullins saddles only one: Energumene, the reigning champ.

Energumene comes here off a less than convincing prep in the G1 Clarence House in late January (run here rather than its usual Ascot home). There, he was still in the mix before a shocker at the last curtailed his claim. Prior to odds on disappointment there he'd won ten from eleven, the only blemish being a narrow defeat in 'that' race with Shishkin at Ascot. It is reasonable to assume he was not quite at concert pitch in January and further reasonable to say that he will be this time, in which case he may be the one they all have to beat.

Gentleman De Mee - who misses the race with an infection - previously had an Aintree G1 verdict over Edwardstone, while that one won convincingly in last season's Arkle at Cheltenham. And Edwardstone was imperious in the Tingle Creek earlier in the season, though he himself has since been turned over by Editeur Du Gite.

The management summary is that any of a number of these could conceivably win the Champion Chase, a race that is likely to be further confuddled by a pace profile featuring a broad cast of prospective forward-goers. All of this makes for a fascinating and thrilling spectacle but a nightmare of a punting puzzle.

Further down the lists are very-good-on-their-day types like two mile specialist Funambule de Sivola (chase form of 1121121126451 at or around two miles), whose season took a marked turn for the better with a bold front-running display in the Game Spirit; Greaneteen, who was closest to Edwardstone at Sandown but a bit floppy behind Funambule at Newbury; and Nube Negra who all but won the 2021 Champion Chase but has been in and out since.

And then there's Captain Guinness, representing three-time Champion Chase-winning trainer, Henry de Bromhead, who of course suffered the ultimate distress not long ago: what a phenomenal story it would be if the Captain could get home in front. Heart-warming, but unlikely.

Champion Chase Pace Map

Two or three who can go forward but, with none of them needing to do so, it's not clear how this might play out. Editeur Du Gite and Energumene will fancy their win chances to may rein back slightly off Funambule de Sivola, whose prospects are more wild card. Still, I'd expect it to be at least truly run.

Champion Chase Selection

This might just be a straight shoot out between Edwardstone and Energumene, and it might not. As unhelpful as that sounds, I'm not really sure where to go with it. If Energumene tracks the pace rather than contests it, he gets first run on Edwardstone who will be played later. In that scenario, he might win; or he might set it up for the last challenger, probably Edwardstone.

Editeur Du Gite's chance may be compromised by a duel with Funambule de Sivola, another fast horse early, and another classy contender (though not quite in the Eddie/Energ quality category).

Incredibly, perhaps, this is a no bet race for me. It ought to be a cracking watch all the same.

*

4.10 Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country, Class 2, 3m6f)

Another of the 'not for the purists' races, arguably; but I have to concede to very much enjoying the different spectacle of a big field of often familiar names jogging around quirky ever decreasing spiral before shaking loose onto the main course for the sprint to the line. In the olden days, this used to be the almost exclusive province of Enda Bolger but, since 2017, there's been a new sheriff in town. Gordon Elliott (and, in 2021, his proxy, Denise Foster) has won five of the last six renewals of the Glenfarclas Chase and saddled the second and third in the year he didn't win during that spell.

This season, he will be responsible for the first two in the betting, Delta Work and Galvin. Now ten, Delta Work was fifth in the 2020 Gold Cup and was the panto villain a year ago when beating everybody's darling, Tiger Roll, by less than a length. He followed that up with third in the Grand National and he's a worthy and obvious favourite. If there is a vulnerability in his profile it might be that he much prefers wet ground: it was heavy when he bested the Tiger but looks unlikely to be that deep this time.

His stablemate Galvin by contrast prefers top of the ground, though he was good enough to claim silver in the 2020 novices' handicap chase at the Festival on soft. A year later, having retained his novice status, he won the NH Chase; and, last year, he was fourth in the Gold Cup. That's very classy form against this field.

And there is another top tier entry this season in the form of Franco De Port, trained by Willie Mullins. He's run respectably in Grade 1 three mile chases the last twice, a level good enough to mix it with Elliott's duo, but he's never raced in public over cross country fences; that's a knock. He looks sure to stay, however, on the basis of his fine third in the Grand Steeplechase last May.

To be honest, I'm struggling to make a case for anything else. Back On The Lash won the cross country handicap in January here but he's 20-odd pounds wrong with Delta Work, and has fluffed his Festival lines in this exam last season (may have hated the ground, in fairness) - any chance he might have is ground dependant. Snow Leopardess would be a very popular winner, and she did have a sighter over the track in January and arrives on the back of a very good run in the Grand National Trial handicap chase last month. She was fourth in Galvin's National Hunt Chase of 2021, handles genuine soft ground and could be a bit of each way value if/when the bookies offer five places.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Pace Map

This will be run at its usual sedate pace for the first three miles or so, with Lieutenant Rocco and Back On The Lash the most plausible for name checks throughout. The gorgeous white mare Snow Leopardess will be easy to spot and may not be far from the front, while Galvin, Delta Work, and especially Franco De Port, will probably be further back during the first half of the race.

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Selection

It looks a straight shootout between the Elliott pair Delta Work and Galvin. On good ground, it's the reigning champion's to lose; soft or heavy would tilt the scales in favour of Galvin; while good to soft would render it pretty much a coin toss between the pair. I don't see anything else representing much value, nor am I mad about punting the short ones at the top at their current prices. I would be tempted by Galvin at bigger than 9/4 on soft ground though that may be asking too much from the layers. If you want an each way with extra places, that might be Snow Leopardess, who looks very likely to improve on her first gallop round this unique circuit.

Suggestion: Back Galvin at 5/2+ if the ground is soft; consider 25/1 Snow Leopardess each way with bonus places, or in any 'without the front two' markets.

4.50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, 2m)

Impossible. For me, at least. I've backed Coeur Sublime after his 'not quite off for the lot' fourth in a Grade 1 two back and his 'still not quite off' second in a Grade 3 last time out. It's possible he has too much weight or is not good enough - of course it, perfectly possible - but I think this has been the plan all season. He's been second in a Triumph Hurdle and was only 12/1 for a Champion Hurdle so he's classy all right.

Aside from Coeur, the market is a little over-enamoured with the Irish challenge given that the raiders have won just twice since 2014, though they did have the 1-2-3 in 2020 and the second horse home in the two runnings since. Andy Dufresne was one of those silver medallists, last year, and he has been laid out for this since. He'll need to have been because his recent track efforts have been lamentable. On his full body of work, however, he has a clear chance even off top weight (and the same mark as twelve months ago).

I feel as though Joe Tizzard may go close in a handicap this week and he has Elixir De Nutz in this one. Easy winner of a Class 2 handicap a couple of spins back, he was no match for Champion Chase-bound Funambule de Sivola last time, though of course he'd got a qualifying mark by then. Elixir runs in the same Terry Warner colours as former winner (and third placed on another occasion) Oiseau De Nuit, who was trained by Joe's dad, Colin. He's a Grade 2 winner at the track over hurdles, but wouldn't want too much rain.

Grand Annual Pace Map

Fast and furious always. Last year's winner, Global Citizen, and my fancy, Elixir De Nutz, need to be careful not to compromise each other's chance; especially with fancied runners like Final Orders and Dinoblue snapping at their hooves. Expect it to be frenetic.

Grand Annual Selection

I have backed Coeur Sublime and think he can run a nice race; and if it's not too wet - it might be - I'll have a small each way bet on Elixir De Nutz with as many places as I can find.

Suggestion: Your guess is better than mine. I'm guessing 11/1 Coeur Sublime and 16/1 Elixir de Nuit, and hoping to be lucky rather than good.

*

5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, NH Flat, 2m 1/2f)

Some shrewd judges go to the bar when this is on; even shrewder judges make a lot of paddock notes for future reference. It's not really a betting race, with whispers and hearsay trading far more strongly than form lines - on the basis that most of the horses have very few of those, and even the ones they do possess were earned in vastly different circumstances.

To offer a hint into the opaqueness of the race, how many do you think Willie Mullins has entered this year? Five? Six? Nope. Ten. TEN!!

One who has shown top class bumper form is A Dream To Share and that's why he's favourite. At least you know he can run fast and good. Obviously, plenty of the others are capable of running faster and gooder than ADTS, we just haven't seen that yet.

Better Days Ahead is a Bective Stud/Gordon Elliott entry, and was a good winner last time from Chapeau de Soleil ("gwarrn the sun hat!") in a small field. Who knows that form amounts to?

Willie has won this with some of his unexposed bigger priced runners, such as Briar Hill (25/1, ridden by Ruby Walsh), Relegate (25/1), Champagne Fever (16/1) and Ferny Hollow (11/1). So the advice is to split a small stake between a few of the unexposed Mullins bombs, and hope to be lucky.

Backing all last day winning Willie Bumper runners at bigger than 10/1 in this would have yielded six winners and six more places from 42 starters, and an SP profit of 67 points! A point each way would have returned a surplus of 77.4 points, and that before you include the two fourths and three fifths that some bookies would have paid out on. You'll be taking a good few this time around but it's a less annoying way to play things than betting the buzz horse and watching it crawl home midfield.

Champion Bumper Pace Map

Pinch of salt stuff here, but for what it's worth, this is what we've discovered about the field so far in terms of run style.

Champion Bumper selection

No idea!

Suggestion: Bet the big priced Willies. Perhaps 16/1 Western Diego and 20/1 Westport Cove, e/w with five places in a couple of shops.

*

These seven skirmishes will deliver us to our half time cup of tea. We might need something stronger by then! Regardless, we've another 14 chances at redemption / further glory / giving it back* [*delete as applicable]

Good luck!

Matt

Racing Insights, Tuesday 14/03/23

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Tuesday is the day many of you have been waiting almost a year for, as it heralds the opening of this year's Cheltenham Festival, which my colleagues have covered at length elsewhere on the site.

For the purpose of my humble daily column, The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's heavily Cheltenham-weighted Shortlist...

...although Tom Creen and Trac look worth a second glance at Sedgefield, as does Devil's Angel at Newcastle.

As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 3.50 Sedgefield
  • 6.45 Newcastle
  • 7.15 Newcastle

...and although I don't generally cover Festival races with them already being 'done' by my colleagues, it would seem remiss of me not to consider the chances of four runners from TS in the first of our free races, the 2.10 Cheltenham, which is a 9-runner, Grade 1, 5yo+ novice chase (13 fences) over a left handed two miles on soft ground...

The general feeling here is that this will be a 2-horse contest between El Fabiolo and Jonbon and I'd be surprised if that wasn't the case. I expect the bookies to have them both around the 6/4 mark, which means that we're not getting rich from singles or forecasts, but it does open up the possibility of an E/W bet.

I'm going to set the two prinicpals to one side for now and focus upon the other seven to see who might be worth looking at to make up the places for that E/W bet or for your tricast/trifecta selections, starting with their last runs which saw Ballybreeze and Effernock Fizz come home as winners, whilst Ha D'Or was a 2-length runner-up at Grade 3. And although Ballybreeze did win on chase debut last time out, it was 20 weeks ago and in a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 100, so not only might he need the run, he's up three classes and Straw Fan Jack / Effernock Fizz are both up two.

Most of these have raced in the last five weeks or so, but Hollow Games has been off for 11 weeks and Straw Fan Jack for over 15 weeks, so like Ballybreeze, they might not be quite 'race-fit'. Every single runner in this field ahs won over a similar trip tot his one, yet only two of the seven past Cheltenham runners have actually won here; Saint Roi won a Grade 3 2m1f hurdle here at 2020's Festival, Straw Fan Jack won a Class 2 Novice chase over course and distance as recently as October and neither El Fabiolo nor Ha D'Or have visited HQ before.

We've also got the 'complication' of softer than usual ground for the start of the Festival and Instant Expert shows us who has done well/badly on soft ground as well as other useful stats...

Red marks against Ballybreeze, Ha D'Or and Effernock Fizz on soft ground and that latter pair have hardly excelled in Class 1 company, whilst Ha D'Or's record at the trip is also poor.

Pace always plays a big part here at Cheltenham and many runners either go off too quickly and get swallowed up later on or they hang too far off the pace and struggle to make up ground on that long energy-sapping incline before the finish. This is shown to some degree in the follow short distance chase stats from previous meetings...

...where hold-up horses have really taken the brunt of it. Ideally for an E/W runners we want an average pace score of around 2.00 to 3.00 and here's our field's last four runs...

And at this point, I'd have concerns about Dysart Dynamo and Ha D'Or on pace. Pace is also against Ballybreeze, as is the rise in class and his layoff since his last run, whilst Effernock Fizz also faces a rise in class and a poor pace profile. Straw Fan Jack also comes off a lay-off and is up in class, whilst Hollow Games may also need a run, meaning that only Saint Roi has avoided any negatives in the process so far.

He did unseat his rider last time out, but in his penultimate start he did land a Grade 1 contest. That was Hollow Games' last appearance and he was 22 lengths further back. All things considered, I'm having Saint Roi as 'best of the rest'

Summary

We fairly quickly got to Saint Roi being our outlier and at 9/1 with bet365, looks a useful third choice in the race. As for our two at the top of the market, there won't be much in it, but El Fabiolo is rated 3lbs better than Jonbon who in turn scored better on Instant Expert. As for pace, El Fabiolo edges here, as Jonbon might get sucked into an early battle and when the two met at Aintree last year Jonbon only prevailed by a neck, despite El Fabiolo being hampered and then making a mistake.

There won't be much in it, wouldn't a dead heat be exciting? But if push comes to shove, I'm going El Fabiolo / Jonbon / Saint Roi.

 

Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

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Cheltenham Festival 2023: Day One Preview, Tips

We're back! The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is here, and it's going to be a belter! 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities... and that's just as it should be! Let's get straight to it.

1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

Half past one on the middle Tuesday in March is when the roar reverberates around the Cotswolds as racing regulars and occasionals alike release 361 days' worth of waiting for the first of seven races on the first of four days of fiercely contested battles.

The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite - think Appreciate It or Douvan - but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to 'get' Facile Vega. That is not, of course, because he can't or won't win; but rather that his price probably over-states his chance currently. Here's why...

Ignoring the fact that he was a terrific bumper horse - winning Grade 1's both here and at Punchestown - and the fact that he's Quevega's son, his actual hurdling form is not out of this world. A maiden win against a field that has managed a solitary handicap hurdle victor, off a perch of a relatively lowly 106, from 27 runs between them, was followed by a much more impressive Grade 1 score where he beat three subsequent winners. That legitimately put Facile Vega in short at the top of the market; but, since then, he's run a very poor race over the same course and distance in a G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF). Excuses have been proffered for that clunk: he was messed about with by High Definition, he went too fast, etc. But they didn't go crazy fast, and High Def mainly messed with himself as he tumbled at the fourth. Word is (take it or leave it, obvs) that FV was lame for a week after Leopardstown so, if you've backed him ante post you'll see that as legitimacy and hope, and if you haven't you'll see it as a concern and a reason to look elsewhere. Such is the way of value betting...

I've backed him at shorter than he is now and I am not remotely inclined to go in again!

But assessing the remainder is also tricky. Marine Nationale was the early season poster boy - and he might perhaps be the late season heartthrob, too, except that we've not seen him since early December; his form has taken a few dents in the interim. In fairness, he's an unbeaten-in-four Grade 1 winner so it will be no shock if he's the best of these but that 100-day layoff would be the longest by a winner since Captain Cee Bee in 2008 and only the second triple-digit absence since at least 1997.

Il Etait Temps has to be a player. Only fifth and fourth behind Vauban in the four-year-old Grade 1's at Cheltenham and Punchestown a year ago, Willie Mullins has had a novice hurdler with plenty of experience to work with this term; and he's been rewarded with wins either side of getting closest to Facile Vega at Christmas. Of course, most recently Il Etait Temps won 'that' race in which HD dived and FV bombed. Although he was a bit awkward early in transit that day, he powered through the line and was just on ten lengths clear of second-placed Inthepocket, Dark Raven a neck back in third. Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he's generally safe across them.

High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he's very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go.

Both Inthepocket and Dark Raven have a place chance on that DRF form: they each brought unbeaten in three records to the G1 party there and each emerged with a degree of credit, Inthepocket having found himself exactly that at a key point in the race. Crucially, both are entitled to be wiser for their first exposure to top class company.

What of the British challenge? The most obvious contender is Tahmuras, winner of a maiden hurdle at Chepstow, a Listed at Haydock and the Grade 1 Tolworth at Sandown. There have been six subsequent winners from his maiden, and the Tolworth form is standing up too: the third there won a G2 next time, the fourth won a novice and was then second in the same G2, and the fifth - Authorised Speed - easily reverted to winning ways back in shallower waters. He's won on soft and good to soft so no ground concerns. The question is how the UK level compares with its Irish counterpart.

Rare Edition was very disappointing when only second in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, a race won in 2020 by Shishkin en route to Supreme glory. He apparently scoped dirty after the race and there has been some whispering about back spasms, both of which appear to have now been resolved. Trainer Charlie Longsdon is bullish about his chance and, on the evidence of the book, he's a place possible at least... if the British form holds its own.

The talking horse in recent days has been Diverge, who won a 22 runner maiden hurdle by 23 lengths. None of the eleven horses to run again since that race have won, and only one hit the frame: the form is weak regardless of how good Diverge might turn out to be. He's inexperienced, too, and for those reasons, as the Dragons say, I'm out.

Olly Murphy runs two in the race, Chasing Fire and Strong Leader, and my preference of the pair is for the former. He's unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three hurdle races and, though untested in Graded company, he's kicked to the kerb everything he's faced hitherto. I feel like the quicker they go the better for him, as he looks a very strong stayer.

Fennor Cross is a massive price but is a dual Cheltenham hurdle winner this season, the second of which was in the Grade 2 Supreme trial. That was in mid-November, however, and he's not been seen since as, presumably, he needs good ground - the underfoot for both those course scores. Alas, it looks unlikely that will be the description for race one, day one.

Supreme Novices' Pace Projection

Likely to be quick, as forward-goers like High Definition and Rare Edition collide with an ocean of adrenaline coursing through the jockeys' veins for the first rising tape of the week.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Selection

I don't have a strong opinion here except that the favourite is poor value. Note, I don't think he is sure to lose, just that his win probability may be lower than his price implies. That's a general take through all of the races: any horse can - and, at Cheltenham, often does - win any race. So we're looking for something that might have a better chance than implied in its price. In this race, I think Il Etait Temps is a fair price, especially if you can find four each way places; and it wouldn't surprise if Tahmuras ran a big race either, especially with his trainer in terrific form.

*

2.10 Arkle Challenge Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future. This season, battle lines are drawn between Britain and Ireland and, as with the Champion Hurdle two races later, team captains are Messrs Henderson and Mullins.

For the home squad, Hendo saddles Jonbon, second (third if you include yawning daylight) in last year's Supreme behind Constitution Hill. In the absence of that monster, Jonbon won the G1 Top Novices' Hurdle at Aintree, beating a chap called El Fabiolo. This season, the JP McManus-owned seven-year-old has won all three chase starts, mostly in the manner of a good'un; that said, he was more workmanlike than striking in his Festival prep in the Kingmaker at Warwick. There, he eventually eked out a five-length margin over Calico in a match. The form of that race has received a boost with the runner-up - a twelve-length winner in Class 3 handicap company before Warwick - going in again at Doncaster in a £20k Class 2 handicap since. Obviously, this is a different kettle of gravy, but there's also every chance that Jonbon was under-cooked for his preparatory spin: he'll be cherry ripe now.

Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite. There was little between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in Liverpool and they may again be hard to separate. Willie's contender has had two chasing starts, winning by 19L and 10L, the latter in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Handy enough throughout, he pounced on trailblazing Dysart Dynamo approaching the second last and had enough energy left to go clear of a three-way picture for the places between Banbridge, DD and Appreciate It.  If they all stand up it's hard to see the placed horses reversing with the winner, in spite of the argument that the furlong and a bit shorter trip might favour the pace horse. That said, El Fabiolo did not impress with his jumping at Leopardstown.

Those that fell or unseated last time are 1 from 14 in recent times with nine of them sent off 11/1 or shorter: it's not obviously a positive for the chance of Saint Roi but nor is it a terminal knock. This lad was fourth in last year's Champion Hurdle and won a Grade 1 novice chase at Christmas, so he's oodles of class; but he was hurdling for four seasons including his time in France which sometimes makes it more difficult for horses to make a chasing shape thereafter. He's bang there on talent but that leaping has to be a concern.

The rest are unlikely to be good enough.

Arkle Pace Projection

There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d'Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races. Jonbon is expected to sit slightly off the fiercest of the sizzle.

Arkle Chase Selection

A race that will probably play out in line with the market expectation of a duel between Jonbon and El Fabiolo. If El Fab's jumping holds up, I think he'll win, and if it doesn't I think Jonbon will win. I don't really see Dysart Dynamo sustaining his front-footed charge and prefer Saint Roi to travel round in his own time and pick up the each way pieces. Not especially a betting race if you haven't already played, I don't think.

*

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)

The first of nine handicaps and I'll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don't run many - just three darts this year - and I'll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly.

My shortlist is Corach Rambler, The Goffer (though he is Irish), and the Tizzard pair, Oscar Elite and The Big Breakaway.

Corach Rambler won the race last year and will again be played late; he was much the best that day and is only six pounds higher now. A fine fourth of 15 in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy as was) in November was his most recent run, though that was 108 days ago. Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners.

The Goffer won a Grade A handicap chase at Leopardstown last time off a mark of 138. He's got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour. He's a novice and so remains somewhat unexposed.

I had a good bet on Oscar Elite in this last year. That partially paid off - the place part specifically - as he finished third. Given he was subsequently found to have bled from the nose, and he is now just a pound higher in the weights, and that he won last time out, I like his chance again. He won't want it too soft, though. Tizzard's other runner, The Big Breakaway, on the other hand loves the wet. He was third in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase two years ago and a game second in the Welsh National at the end of last year - carrying 11-13 - last time. He jumps, he stays, he handles the track and ground and he's very much a runner for me.

Ultima Pace Projection

It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. Luck in running is needed, and usually patience, too.

Ultima Handicap Chase Selection

Skybet are paying EIGHT places on this race, and a couple of others are seven places deep. That gives us plenty of chances and the first name on the team sheet is Corach Rambler, whose run style lends itself to hitting the frame even without extended places! I'm slightly on weather watch with Oscar Elite, very much liking his chance on good to soft but less keen on softer. I'd rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him. In the end, I'm swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well.

Suggestion: With as many as eight places on offer, you can take two or three each way and potentially be rewarded on all places while trebling your chance of hitting the win jackpot. In that context, back any/all of 6/1 Corach Rambler, 11/1 Oscar Elite (wait for ground news is my advice), and 14/1 The Big Breakaway.

*

3.30 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)

The undoubted highlight of day one is the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle. Since just under two hours before last year's Champion Hurdle, Constitution Hill has been close to, or outright, favourite for the 2023 renewal. The reason for that was his destruction of a solid-looking Supreme Novices' Hurdle field in the 2022 curtain raiser, where he easily despatched Jonbon et al in a very fast time. True, both Dysart Dynamo (joint favourite with CH that day) and Mighty Potter, unbeaten in four since, both failed to complete; but that is, after all, a fairly important part of the challenge.

Since sauntering home a year ago, Nicky Henderson's six-year-old son of Blue Bresil has bolted up by a dozen lengths from Epatante in the G1 Fighting Fifth, and hosed in by seventeen lengths from the same rival in the G1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He's won his last four starts, all Grade 1's, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L - and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he's normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill's profile whatsoever and he's a very worthy odds-on favourite.

If this year's Champion Hurdle is not to be a procession, the most obvious candidate to make a race of things is State Man. Since 2009, Nicky Henderson leads Willie Mullins - in whose care State Man resides - 5-4 and, in search of the equaliser, Mullins' Man has very strong credentials. At least, in any other year he would have. To wit, he's unbeaten in six straight completed starts, a sequence that includes last year's County Hurdle followed by four consecutive Grade 1 races. In that quartet of G1 scores, he's earned closing comments as follows: "easily", "comfortably", "easily", "comfortably".

Well, something has to give, and the market is fairly confident it will be the British champion lording it over his Irish counterpart. I'm also confident that will be the case having not been overly impressed with what State Man found off the bridle in the County, the only time he's needed to be pushed out to the line. But I don't have enough threes to try to steal some ones at the prevailing odds. So how else to play? We'll come to that. First, what of the supporting cast?

Willie has more than just State Man; he also saddles last year's Triumph Hurdle winner, Vauban, and he's an interesting contender. While Constitution Hill and State Man are likely to be on or close to the pace, Vauban has been ridden a lot more patiently and, as a result, has finished his races off well in respectable defeats to State Man. If State Man tries to force things against the favourite - and it's unlikely the Closutton team will be riding for a place - then Vauban may be the one to hoover up any crumbs.

The second possible in that context is I Like To Move It, whose Greatwood and Kingwell Hurdle wins have advertised his 'dark horse' claims. True, he was well seen off by Marie's Rock in the Relkeel, though that was over an extra half mile; and he was no match for State Man in the County a year ago. He has some impressive performances to his name, most of them on genuine good ground, but I can't quite shake that County clunk from my memory banks.

Not So Sleepy has a fair record in the race: 5th two years ago and 6th last year, but he's eleven now; and I don't give Zanahiyr or Jason The Militant any material chance.

Champion Hurdle Pace Projection

Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along. Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field.

Champion Hurdle Selection

The win market is all about Constitution Hill, who better ratings judges are suggesting is the best we've seen in a very, very long time. If that's right, he's a fair enough price for those who like playing big at short. Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but 'without the favourite' is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban 'without' is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it's possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn't far behind him in steadily enough run G1's in Ireland and can come through for silver.

Suggestion: Back Vauban without the favourite at anything better than 7/2 (4/1 with Hills at time of writing).

*

4.10 Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

There has been plenty of chat on the Maremite Hurdle - some love it, some hate it. Me? I'm in the love camp, and I don't really understand the naysayers who I feel are only rehashing the argument, which has surely had its day now, that it denigrates the Champion Hurdle. Let's just accept the new world and move forward - and what better time to do that than in a year which features the winners of THREE Champion Hurdles?

Well, why aren't they running in that race then, I hear (one of) you cry! The answer, of course, is trajectory; and that is the byword for attempting to solve this wagering puzzle. Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race. Five-year-old Marie's Rock had won a Listed mares race at Taunton, and Love Envoi was a year away from making her debut.

In 2021, Epatante could only finish third in the Champion Hurdle, behind Honeysuckle. Marie's Rock had recently run third in a mares' Grade 2 at Doncaster and Love Envoi was about to win a Wexford bumper on her first start. A year later, last year, and Honeysuckle again won the Champion Hurdle with Epatante her nearest pursuer on this occasion. Marie's Rock had graduated to winning the Mares' Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares' Novices Hurdle.

And so to this term. Honeysuckle, heretofore unbeaten in 16 Rules races and a point to point, is now without a win in her two seasonal spins. Third to the improving - and very good on soft ground - Teahupoo over this sort of trip, and then second to the improving - and just very good - State Man over two miles is hardly poor form; but it is a step down from where she was previously. The question then is whether Honeysuckle is regressing slowly enough to still have something in hand of Epatante, herself steadily on the downgrade, and of the progressive Marie's Rock and highly progressive Love Envoi: that's what makes this such a fascinating conundrum.

Epatante has been thumped twice in Grade 1's by Constitution Hill this season; and then beat a field of inferior mares in appropriate fashion. She's only run once at this longer distance, when winning the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle easily last season. Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point. She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.

Marie's Rock has been a revelation since winning a handicap hurdle in December 2021: from that point on, she's won five of six - pulling up having been hampered on the other start - a sequence that includes the Mares' Hurdle and Punchestown equivalent (both G1) last season and the Relkeel Hurdle on her only start this year. My reservation, aside from the very light 2022/23 campaign, is the substance of her form: in last year's Mares' Hurdle she beat 150-rated Echoes In Rain, who doesn't seem to stay this far, and a bunch of 140-something mares; at Punchestown, she beat a conceivably over the top Epatante (who had run 2nd in the Champion Hurdle and won the Aintree Hurdle in the previous six weeks); and in the Relkeel she beat an array of dodgy geezers the likes of which would not look out of place outside an East London boozer (I should know!). She might win - she's just about favourite after all - but her rising star may have just about reached its apex to my eye.

As for Love Envoi, she needs the rain to continue her own ascent. She has won eight of her nine starts to date, including last year's Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle here and her only defeat - second to Brandy Love - was on yielding turf. She's tough, loves the mud and has improved her top Racing Post Rating in each of her last seven races; it's not a big price that she'll improve on it again - the question is whether she can do it to a sufficient degree to usurp those above her. Trajectories, eh?

Brandy Love has been very lightly raced but is a Grade 1 winner at this range, when seeing off Love Envoi who, by contrast, was having her sixth battle of last season. I don't expect her to confirm the form with Harry Fry's mare.

Mares' Hurdle Pace Projection

This looks like it will be run at a sensible even gallop.

Mares' Hurdle Selection

A fantastic race in terms of stalwarts of the game and in competitive terms. Finding the winner will be difficult. Having backed Honeysuckle, I didn't think she'd face such a deep field - and I don't think connections did either. But she's still just about the one to beat, along with Epatante. I'm against Marie's Rock - fully mindful that it might look preposterous post-race - and, if it is soft, I'd want Love Envoi onside, too. It's that kind of contest!

Suggestion: The each way 'bet to nothing' (it doesn't exist, but you know what I mean) is 9/2 Epatante, who looks sure to be bang there; and I'm going to have a small bit on 9/1 Love Envoi as well, if the ground is soft.

*

4.50 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, Grade 3, 2m 1/2f)

Too difficult. I've backed loads of them, which is ridiculous, because I haven't got a clue who wins. The average winning SP since 2012 has been 27/1, and there have been nine winners priced 20/1 or bigger since the race's inception in 2005; so the market doesn't have a clue who wins either! The suggestion, then, is to ignore anything shorter than 16/1 and try to make a case for two or three darts, win only, for small change.

In that spirit, I offer the following:

Afadil - a Paul Nicholls French import a la Sanctuaire, Qualando and Diego du Charmil, all of whom won this for PFN

Metamorpheus and Jazzy Matty - with thanks to Gavin Ryan for this snippet: this pair both ran in the Naas race that has thrown the winner of the last four Fred Boodles. So, too, did Byker, Sir Allen, and Morning Soldier - and the one I had most on for this prior to that race, Almuhit. He blew the start and was left 30 lengths!!!

Boodles Handicap Hurdle Pace Projection

A good half dozen possible pace angles here, headed perhaps by Mighty Mo Missouri. Expect thrills and spills.

Boodles Handicap Hurdle selection

I cannot with clean conscience propose you bet anything in this race on my say so. I've backed a few, including the three mentioned above. 

Suggestion: One for a blindfold and Mr Felt Tippy, your magic marker

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5.30 National Hunt Chase (Grade 2, 3m 6f)

The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it's only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days. This oldest race of the Festival and monument to the Corinthian nature that characterised National Hunt racing for a million years has undergone more nips and tucks to its race conditions than <insert your preferred surgically enhanced pantomime dame here>.

Its current format, borne somewhat legitimately out of the ugly optic that was the 2019 renewal, where just four of 18 starters completed and 'encouragement' was outside of what might be termed the comfort zone for even the most stoic of country sports fans, comprises more than just a reduced race distance. That range truncation implies a reduction in the number of fences, and there are indeed two fewer - 23 versus the previous 25 - and, additionally, no horse rated below 120 or with fewer than two chase starts (including one in the current season and one over about three miles or more) will qualify. The upshot is that a race that drew 17-20-18-16-18 runners up to 2019 has, since the amendments, attracted 14, 12 and, last year, just six runners. It's another smallish field this year, with ten going to post.

The market has been headed for a long time by Gaillard du Mesnil, a hyper consistent horse but only an occasional visitor to the winners' enclosure. To wit, in 13 Rules starts he's finished in the places on all bar one occasion, but has won just four times - and only once in eight starts in the past two years. That's got to be a concern about a horse priced around the even money mark, for all that many of those form lines give him a clear edge on his field. He was third in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase last year and filled the same position, in a field of 27, in the Irish Grand National a month later. This season, GdM followed up a good second to Mighty Potter over an inadequate two and a half miles with one of those elusive wins - and by eight lengths no less - against Churchstonewarrior, a surprise defector at the final declaration stage, in a three mile Grade 1 at Christmas. He was again beaten by the Potter when dropped back to the Potter's trip territory in a G1 at the DRF, and will clearly relish this more stamina-emphasised test. But did I mention that he doesn't win all that often?

The key to Chemical Energy appears to be in the turf. His form on good ground is 112111, while on softer he's 140854. It's bound to be softer than good and he has some stamina questions to answer, too. He's not for me.

Mahler Mission ran a fair race (7th of 16) in last year's Albert Bartlett and, though he was whacked in a novices' chase at Cheltenham early in the season, that was surely a sighter on ground much faster than ideal. More recently he's won a beginners' and then ran a gallant second to Churchstonewarrior.

Minella Crooner was a good staying hurdler, running second to Minella Cocooner in the Nathaniel Lacy at the 2022 DRF. He's one from four over fences though was also second in a Grade 2 in early season. The balance of his performances is not at the level of some of his rivals, and he might not want it too soft either. However, an interesting outsider to consider is Tenzing: he's still a maiden after three chase starts but that trio includes finishing close to Gerri Colombe and Ramillies before being beaten a little further last time by Mahler Mission. On the pick of those runs, he could again challenge for the frame.

Best of the (limited) British defence is probably Mister Coffey, a perma-bridesmaid trained by Nicky Henderson. He's finished second in five of his last six starts, a run that includes the G1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase of last year and the Kim Muir a month later. He looked a strong stayer at last season's Festival and this test might be just the ticket.

Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level. And yet, he's won handicap chases by 19 lengths and 17 lengths the last twice, has proven stamina, jumps well, and comes here nicely rested. He might outrun his 66/1 odds.

National Hunt Chase Pace Projection

A few possibles for the lead, most notably Mahler Mission, Minella Crooner, and perhaps Bellatrixsa. At the other end of the field, Chemical Energy will probably be patiently ridden by that master of the waiting ride, Jamie Codd.

National Hunt Chase Selection

On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price. Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet. That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name.

Suggestion: Back Mister Coffey each way at 9/1.

*

It's a fascinating start to the week, with top class horses aplenty and deep, deep fields in the main. Good luck with your betting in the opening quarter!

Matt

Racing Insights, Monday 13/03/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.05 Stratford
  • 2.40 Stratford
  • 4.50 Thurles
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

And as that trio contains a Juvenile Hurdle, an Irish bumper and an A/W novice event, I think I'll look at the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase of 17 fences over a left handed 2m7½f (after an extra furlong for rail adjustments) on soft ground that is better in places...

GO STEADY has made the frame in half of his 18 chase outings, going on to win a very creditable six times (all on good to soft or 'worse'). He now drops in class and weight after finishing in mid-division at Kempton 16 days ago and has a win and a place from his last two runs at this grade. Gets on well with this jockey and shouldn't be bothered by underfoot conditions.

WHYDAH GALLY was a useful hurdler last season finishing 321F1 at Classes 3 & 4, but has failed to make much impact this season since being asked to jump fences. He was pulled up 4 out at Taunton at the end of last year in a race sandwiched by defeats of 27 and 20 lengths. Not sure he gets the trip over fences either.

NATIVE ROBIN is, at 13yo, surely in the twilight of a decent enough career that has seen him win 11 of 36 over fences, but since winning by just over a length in a Class 3, 2m4½f chase at Wincanton 13 months ago, has gone down by 19, 40, 33, 38 and 28 lengths in five successive defeats since and he's never raced as far as he'll asked to here, but does drop in class.

RAKHINE STATE is a late convert to chasing, as this 10yr old only tackled a fence for the first time when 3rd of 11 over 2m5f at Southwell at the end of November, which was a good effort considering he'd been off for 502 days. He followed that up with another third place finish next/last time out 66 days ago, but he did halve the margin of defeat from 20L to 10L, but would need to improve further to land a chase win at the third time of asking and he's another who has never gone this far.

RESERVE TANK started his chasing career by finishing 212 in three Class 1 (Lst/Gr2/Gr2) Novice events in Oct/Nov 2019, but has results of PFPPP47 since, which is hardly inspiring. Interspersed amongst those seven chase failures, he ahs also raced eleven times over hurdles, making the frame just once in a run of form reading 5PP528P6433, making one place and eight incomplete runs from eighteen starts. I suspect that first-time blinkers won't work a miracle here.

ANIMAL got off the mark over fences at the third attempt, landing a 2m6f soft ground affair at Fakenham on New Year's Day 2022 and despite a run of five defeats since (36337), he's still 3lbs higher than that win and his record higher than Class 5 is lamentable.

ICAQUE DE L'ISLE was first and third in back to back six-runner 2m2f chases at Aix-Les-Bains in June/July of last year, but has failed to score in three attempts since crossing the channel. He was a well beaten (41 lengths) 3rd of 5 over a soft ground 3m at Ffos Las in early November, but got to within 10 lengths of the winner on Boxing Day, when 2nd of 8 over 2m4f at Huntingdon (gd to soft) and got closer still next/last time out at Hereford five weeks ago, when beaten by 4.5 lengths over 2m5f on good ground. Eased a pound here and getting weight all round, he is improving but the going and the trip are a concern.

Instant Expert shows the field's record in similar conditions, but based on the above, I'm not expecting much positivity...

Short of his third placed finish here on his only previous visit to Stratford, Go Steady is probably the eyecatcher, although the sadly out of form veteran Native Robin does have some good numbers from his past. Elsewhere there are some tales of woe for Animal at this level and on this going and there's far too many red blocks for my liking, perhaps the place stats will look better?

Well, Go Steady and Native Robin are still very strong and you can start to make a case for both Animal and Icaque de L'isle to make the frame, but they've got improvement to make here. The feature of the day is PACE, of course and our pace analyser tells us that in similar races to this, leaders have been hauled in by the pack and have generally been defeated, whilst hold-up horses have struggled to make ground up...

...suggesting an average pace score in the 2.00 to 3.00 region might well be advantageous. If wee look at this field's most recent efforts...

...it looks like Native Robin will be the one setting the pace with most of the field keeping in touch not too far away ready to engulf him in the closing stages. That's likely to be his downfall and it's also likely to be tough for the likes of Rakhine State and Animal from the back.

Summary

Quite simply, I like Go Steady here. A very competent chaser down in class and weight, no issues with the ground or the trip and gets on well with today's rider and the 9/2 available at 6.30pm on Sunday was a bit of a pleasant surprise.

Elsewhere, pace is likely to be the undoing of Native Robin, Rakhine State and Animal and neither are in great form anyway, leaving Whydah Gally, Icaque de l'isle and Reserve Tank as the challengers for second spot. I have doubts about Whydah Gally getting the trip and although unexposed over fences, hasn't got close to winning whilst Reserve Tank is in a horrible run of form.

All of which almost be default leads us to the French 5yr old Icaque de l'isle, who has yet to win in the UK but is slowly improving. I think he'll go well here if getting the trip and I've no doubts he's going to win races, but might have to settle for silver here, although the bookies disagree with me and have him as the fav at prices around the 2/1 mark, which seem a little skinny.

Racing Insights, Saturday 11/03/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated a pair of runners for both the 1-year form and course 5-year filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 3.05 Hereford
  • 3.55 Ayr
  • 4.20 Gowran Park
  • 4.25 Wolverhampton

...and with a couple of my TJC Report qualifiers running in 'free' races it makes sense to focus on one of those. The Sandown race is clearly the better standard, but 17-runner novice handicaps aren't really my bag, so let's focus on the 3.55 Ayr, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good/good to soft ground...

Joint youngest (with Donna's Double) Readysteadybeau is the sole LTO winner in the field, but Glittering Love was a runner-up beaten by just a head. Cash To Ash, Strong Economy, Glittering Love and Crixus's Escape are all winless in five and the latter in one of a few with plenty of letter in their formline, as his last seven races contain 4 x pulled up and a last of seven. Perversely, he was a runner-up in the other two!

Plenty of Class movement here, as only top-weight Fortified Bay, Donna's Double, Strong Economy and Readysteadybeau ran at Class 3 LTO with Just Don't Know and Niceandeasy both dropping down a class and Cash To Ash, Glittering Love & Crixus's Escape all up from Class 4, which doesn't inspire confidence in latter who has failed to complete his last two at a lower grade.

LTO winner Readysteadybeau wears a visor for the first time here, whilst bottom weight Crixus's Escape returns from an eight break during which he had wind surgery, but he's not the one who has been away from the track the longest as Niceandeasy (71 days), Strong Economy (122d) and Glittering Love (72d) all come off 10+ weeks absences. The rest of the field have raced in the last 24-40 days and they might well have the edge being more "match-fit" to steal a footballing term.

All of them have had some success at course, distance or both. Fortified Bay is the only one yet to win here, but has won at Newcastle over three miles. Of the remaining eight runners, all bar Donna's Double and Readysteadybeau are former course and distance winners, with Niceandeasy winning this race last year and Cash To Ash winning the year before! Donna's Double dis win a 2m4½f chase here whilst Readysteadybeau has won a 2m5½f chase here and a 3m½f hurdle at Haydock. As for their records over fences on similar ground conditions and class, we always have Instant Expert...

...which as well as highlighting lots of great course form does ask some questions about several of these. This race was a Class 4 contest when Niceandeasy and Cash To Ask won it recently and neither have won a Class 3 chase yet and are a combined 0 from 11, but that's not as bad as Strong Economy & Glittering Love's total of 1 win from 16. These numbers put all four at risk here and Cash To Ash's record over this trip is pretty poor too at 2 from 16, as is the 1 from 7 scored by Crixus's Escape, whose form has been so bad (11 without a win) that he's now some 22lbs lower than his last winning mark.

In terms of the ideal pace profile here, we're looking for a horse that likes to be up with the pace if this is anything to go by...

...with those running in mid-div or further back winning just 6 of 108, as opposed to 20 front-end winners from 105 winning almost 3.5 times as often and that's going to suit the likes of Just Don't Know, Fortified Bay, Cash To Ash and Readysteadybeau, based on recent outings...

Summary

The pace angle is going to be so important here and I think the top four on the pace chart is the place to start. My first job, of course, is to get rid of one of them for my top three shortlist and it's a pretty easy call to eject Fortified Bay from proceedings based on his inconsistency (3 x PU in his last 7)and the fact he's top weight.

So, we have three and whilst Cash to Ash is still in my mix, I don't see him repeating his 2021 success this time. He's only 2 from 23 over fences but has made the frame 11 times (47.8%) showing that he's essentially a near-miss type generally worth backing E/W or for a place, but not a winner. He's currently 7/1 here, which is borderline for my own E/W confort zone, but you can make your own call on the price.

All of which brings us to Just Don't Know and Readysteadybeau, who'll both be very prominent here and there's not much between them, but Just Don't Know runs off the same mark as LTO (Ready is up 2lbs), JDK scored slightly better on Instant Expert, drops in class and is a former course and distance winner and I think that his current (4.25pm) 5/1 price with both Bet365 & Hills represents better value than his rivals 5/2 & 3/1, so it'd be Just Don't Know for me here.

Racing Insights, Friday 10/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Sadly, my chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier for Friday...

...but I can still fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Exeter
  • 3.10 Ayr
  • 3.20 Wolverhampton
  • 6.15 Dundalk
  • 8.00 Kempton

...and I think we'll see how track specialist Satin Snake might get on in the 6.00 Kempton, an 8-runner (Porfin doesn't go), Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Apprentices Handicap over a right handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...

No LTO winners on display here, but feature horses Satin Snake was a runner-up 7 days ago and bottom weight Jupiter Express was also a runner-up 8 days ago. Both also won two starts ago and both have 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from their last five five, making them the 'form horses'. Conversely, The Green Man is winless in 6, Impeach has lost his last 8 and it's a losing streak of 16 races over almost two years for Gobi Sunset.

The two 'form' horses both step up a class here, but The Green Man, Mamillius and Gobi Sunset all drop a level after failing to make the frame on their most recent outings. Stockpyle might need the run after a five-month break during which he was gelded, but aside from Mamillius' three month absence, the others have all raced in the last month with both Satin Snake and Jupiter Express running in March already.

Stockpyle and Satin Snake are the only ones yet to win at this trip, but the latter is just one of two previous winners (finishes of 31211 over 7f!), along with Melly's Flyer who is 2 from 3 over course and distance. In addition to those stats, Instant Expert tells me that on the A/W, five of these have won on standard to slow going and four of them have won at Class 4...

Aside from being 0 from 3 at this trip, you can see why Satin Snake is the H4C horse here, Elsewhere, I have worries over Mamillius (class/trip), Impeach (going/class) and Gobi Sunset (generally but class here) and as Mamillius might need the run after a lay-off, Impeach is on a run of 0 from 8 and Gobi Sunset 0 from 16, I'm crossing them off the list here, leaving me with runners in stalls 1, 4, 5, 7 & 8 and in similar past races here at Kempton, this is how the draw has worked out...

.suggesting that Mellys Flyer is at somewhat of a disadvantage and that Satin Snake might also not have the best of it, but good news for The Green Man, if nothing else. 23.5 wins would be par, so stalls 4 & 5 are neither badly nor well considered here. Interestingly, Satin Snake has won here from stall 7 before and also from stall 13, which is somewhere out near Kempton cricket club, so it might well be the race tactics are more important here and they say...

...that the further forward you can race the better from both a win and place perspective, which based on this field's recent endeavours...

...is less good news for The Green Man than before, but some respite for Satin Snake, whose average pace score from his last five visits here is 3.40. We have the draw and the pace covered, but how they interact may also offer some clues, so here's the heat map for this race...

...suggesting that a highly drawn runner's best chance of success is to get out quickly, as Satin Snake has done here in the past. When we combine today's drawn with the field's last four runs anywhere, we get...

...and although those drawn lower than Satin Snake look better placed, he does have the right pace profile if not the best draw.

Summary

It's hard to get away from the two 'form' horses, Satin Snake and Jupiter Express and they might well be the first two home. Satin Snake ticks plenty of boxes, but is relatively poorly drawn (although only two wide of Jupiter) and is 3lbs higher than his last win, which was by 0.75 lengths. Jupiter Express also brings similar form to the table, but lacks experience and was raised 4lbs for a half-length success. He's slightly worse treated than Satin and with his rivals record here at Kempton, it's Satin Snake for me, but Jupiter should definitely make the frame if not the runners-up spot.

Sadly, as I'm a bit later (6.15pm) than normal, the price on Satin Snake has gone and he's now the 9/4 fav although that's where I'd have him, along with the 7/2 about Jupiter Express. The bookies are giving us anything, but they're being fair here and the reverse forecast might pay reasonably.

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night Notes

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In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at South Kensington Holiday Inn, London Racing Club's annual 'best of breed' Cheltenham Preview Evening unfurled. Gently and eloquently compered by Racing Post senior writer, Lee Mottershead (LM), the panel further comprised stats man extraordinaire and former author of Weatherby's annual guide, Matt Tombs (MT), Racing TV's outstanding host and form judge, Lydia Hislop (LH), and - with a line from the odds makers, Sam Hockenhull of Fitzdares (SH).

What follows are their thoughts as far as I was able to scribble them down while still mainly aiming to enjoy the show!

TUESDAY

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

LH - Concerned by Facile Vega's last run. Was reportedly lame after: that's a worry. Prefer Rare Edition each way, who was impressive at Christmas but came back with a dirty scope after his race at Huntingdon. Not dismissing Il Etait Temps, though he can pull hard.

MT - Is FV ground dependent? Best form seems to be on soft, could be a place lay on a sounder surface. Il Etait Temps is unsexy but is a good value e/w play. Like Rare Edition as well. At longer prices, Diverge and Doctor Bravo are mildly interesting in what looks a very open and potentially substandard renewal.

Arkle

SH - Hard to separate the top two in the betting

MT - Strongest view of day 1: on form, El Fabiolo should be clear favourite. Jonbon jumped right at Warwick and, while El Fab also has jumping concerns, he's always jumped well immediately after making his mistakes. Dysart Dynamo is probably the best jumper in the field but if he goes too hard on the front could bomb out completely.

LH - Feel like the Warwick race has been overplayed in terms of Jonbon form. Calico (2nd there) showed he'd improved when winning next time. Not worried about Jonbon adjusting right. El Fabiolo "occasionally quite clumsy", but agree the Irish Arkle is the best form on show so far. But this race is likely to be the best form by season end. Saint Roi is interesting - "jockey admitted falling off" last time. Won't get involved in any pacey business on the front end and so is playable e/w at the prices.

Champion Hurdle

MT - Think Constitution Hill might be better than Istabraq; he's the complete package.

LH - It's a horse race ("thankfully"), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the "wise guy" horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race.

Mares' Hurdle

SH - Epatante is a very interesting supplement. Want to lay Honeysuckle. Love Envoi is backable on softer ground.

LH - Can't make a strong case for Honeysuckle, but can see why she's stepped up to Mares' Hurdle distance. Epatante appears to be regressing more slowly than Honeysuckle and "mullered" some lesser horses at Doncaster last time. Interested in Love Envoi and Maries Rock if she shows here, but not Echoes In Rain.

MT - Can see a wall of money for Honeysuckle on the day so might be a back to lay opportunity. Maries Rock probably going to Stayers' Hurdle but would "really fancy her" if turning up here.

Rest of Tuesday

SH - Ultima: Happygolucky ran well at Newcastle off a big break before tiring in the straight. Was given a sighter at Cheltenham next time. Form looks decent and trainer Kim Bailey thinks a lot of the horse. Can't see Corach Rambler winning from behind again. Don't like Tekao in the Boodles, don't think he'll get up the hill.

MT - 'Waited with' run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly. Gaillard du Mesnil is opposable at the prices in the NH Chase. Don't think that race's profile suits such a strong stayer any more. Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative - going slower could suit him.

LH - Happygolucky in the Ultima. Into Overdrive is interesting, too. Afadil in the Boodles. Want to oppose GdM in the NH Chase, with Mahler Mission and Chemical Energy viable options.

 

WEDNESDAY

Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

SH - Impaire Et Passe (IeP) the recent money horse.

LH - IeP has the right combination of speed and jumping. Ruby/Willie vibes are very strong. Inthepocket is interesting up in trip; didn't the run of the race at the Dublin Racing Festival. Might need playing late but looks fair e/w.

MT - Would love to own Hermes Allen, but wouldn't run him in this race! Nicholls doesn't tend to hard train novice hurdlers. IeP is "nap of the whole Festival". He has everything you need for this job.

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase

LH - Thyme Hill form awful, the time was "glacial" 😆 Rain might be important for Gerri Colombe. Without rain, not sure he'll enjoy downhill sections of the track. Like The Real Whacker, but form has taken some knocks.

SH - Don't like Thyme Hill

MT - Lay of the meeting is Thyme Hill. Want to oppose Sir Gerhard who is inexperienced over fences and would probably be running over shorter if trained by anyone else than Willie. Gerri is a banker if it's wet. Like TRW as well. Thunder Rock could be an 'in running' play if he's travelling well in the first mile.

Champion Chase

MT - Edwardstone seems to be the momentum horse. Most likely winner but Editeur du Gite is some value - he's underestimated. Gentleman Du Mee is the horse liked most at the prices: looks progressive.

LH - Energumene jumps right which is a problem at Cheltenham; cannot have him at all. EdG is a fair price, and he might be Gentleman's problem if he doesn't allow that one to dominate from the front. Edwardstone probably just wins, after a good prep when a lot went wrong last time. He's the nap of the day.

Rest of Wednesday

MT - Cross Country: Gordon Elliott is the man for this now, with a stranglehold on the race. Delta Work probably wins if the ground is soft, Galvin probably wins if it's quicker. In Grand Annual, Rouge Vif and Sizing Pottsie have interesting profiles.

LH - Rouge Vif had a nice prep for the Grand Annual at Doncaster, but would be worried about rain for him.

 

THURSDAY

Turners Novices' Chase

SH - Betting each way at shortish prices is not for everyone, but Banbridge will surely be hard to keep out of the frame and has a solid win chance, too.

LM - Nicky Henderson likes Balco Coastal at a big price

MT - Tipped Banbridge early season... for the Brown Advisory! In the Balco Coastal camp, possibly got there too soon in the Scilly Isles, and might appreciate going left-handed. One of the e/w bets of the week.

LH - Worried about Mighty Potter potentially not handling the travel/prelims again after last year. Could be different story this time but he has to overcome that and is very short in the betting considering. Banbridge is more straightforward and Balco Coastal is interesting at a bigger price, too. Appreciate It might be "a bit aged" to be winning this.

Stayers' Hurdle

SH - If Blazing Khal runs, he will go off favourite and looks the most likely winner.

LH - Will BK make it? The jockey - trainer's son - is a slight concern, too, as he won't be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it). Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find... which leaves Gold Tweet. The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly.

MT - Ground important for Teahupoo who wants "proper soft". Blazing Khal has fitness and jockey concerns. Quite like HBTL though he wouldn't want a dawdling pace. If Maries Rock settles, she might be the bet.

Ryanair

MT - Hitman without the favourite (Shishkin) looks a good bet.

LH - Shishkin is a very likely winner; he "towers above the opposition". French Dynamite playable without the favourite: should like the return to Cheltenham, is improving but can make mistakes. Not interested in hold up types like Fury Road in this.

Rest of Thursday

LH - Mares' Novices: Luccia very good but Halka du Tabert, Magical Zoe and Harmonya Maker are all possibles, too. Check the ground before betting in this one. In the Festival Plate, Frero Banbou has been shaping like he needs this step up in trip.

SH - In the Mares' Novices, You Wear It Well keeps improving and wasn't far behind Hermes Allen in G1 Challow. Will stay on up the hill. Main danger might be Ashroe Diamond.

MT - Frero Banbou in the Plate. In the Mares' Novices, Halka du Tabert didn't get a good ride last time: she's better than that. In the Pertemps Final, Good Time Jonny could be a good old fashioned Tony Martin plot. Ran in Albert Bartlett last year, and been a mixed bag this season: very well weighted on his best form.

 

FRIDAY

Triumph Hurdle

MT - 'Vibes' have been for Blood Destiny, but not a betting race

LH - Preview-night yak has raised the possibility Paul Townend might ride Blood Destiny, which would move him into favouritism. Lossiemouth has to prove herself in an end to end gallop, while Gala Marceau probably didn't get the credit she deserved last time: she's overpriced in relation to Lossiemouth. All three of those are Willie horses, so jockey bookings will be instructive. Comfort Zone can run well and could be the e/w play, though Aintree might be more his bag.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

MT - This is a great betting race, as it's a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result. Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years. That said, may need to be more open-minded this year. Favori de Champdou and Affordale Fury are two of interest, but whatever you like, swing win only rather than each way.

LH - Hiddenvalley Lake one to be with. Profile of race has changed: now less seasoned horses can win. Absolute Notions a player if running here; so too Dawn Rising. Will be looking at unexposed types at the 48 hour stage.

GOLD CUP

LH - Galopin Des Champs is a very likely winner but, at bigger prices, Ahoy Senor could have a perfect setup in this test. Noble Yeats looks good to pick up place pieces. Although Bravemansgame may prefer flatter tracks, he has the strongest form in the race this season. Strongly against A Plus Tard's profile coming into the race. Even at his best, which we've not seen for a year, GdC would beat him anyway.

MT - Coming round to Bravemansgame having not been a fan early season - he's very hard to knock. Ahoy Senor may attempt a Coneygree off the front. Heart says GdC, value is Bmg. Against APT.

Rest of Friday

SH - Mares Chase: Allegorie de Vassy might be in a different league.

LH - Mares Chase: Allegorie de Vassy "jumps wildly right". Along with Thyme Hill, she's the one all week to field against the strongest! Jeremy's Flame looks solid while Elimay is too big a price.

MT - Hunter Chase: Rocky's Howya is a young horse and a complete unknown quantity. He's 5/5 in points this season, some of the form of which has worked out nicely.

 

CHARITY BETS

LH - The Real Whacker in Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (SP)

MT - Balco Coastal e/w in the Turners Novices' Chase (16/1)

LM - Milkwood e/w in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (40/1)

 

Racing Insights, Thursday 09/03/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.30 Wincanton
  • 4.35 Carlisle
  • 5.15 Newcastle
  • 5.25 Thurles

...from which I'm ignoring Carlisle (weather) and Thurles (not a fan of Irish racing) and I'm going with the 1.30 Wincanton, a 7-runner, Class 3,  5yo+ handicap where they'll go right handed over 21 fences on good ground, that is reportedly firmer in places, but showers are forecast. The trip is just shy of 3m1½f after a 60yd rail movement and here's the card...

Stormy Flight and Windance both won last time out, whilst Bbold, Minella Buster and No Hubs No Hoobs all failed to complete their races, but the latter did at least win two starts back and only Trixster is winless in five, despite being one of just two (along with Stormy Night) to not have an incomplete run in that time.

Three of these (Valsheda 5th LTO, Bbold & Minella Buster both pulled up) ran at this Class last tim, but three (LTO winners Stormy Flight & Windance plus 6th placed Trixster) step up a level and bottom weight No Hubs No Hoobs is up two classes after a fall here over C&D when he reportedly bled.

He had, however won over course and distance here two starts back, on Boxing Day, making him the only C&D winner in the pack. None of the others have won here, but three (Bbold, Windance & Trixster) have won over a similar trip to this one. No Hubs No Hoobs' C&D last run was two months ago now, but Bbold and Minella Buster have been off longer at 73 days, with the remainder all seen in the last month.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert condenses the relevant form profile of the field into a simple to view graphic, which for all NH races looks like this...

...where Stormy Flight has struggled to win at Class 3 (50% place strike rate, though) and is up 9lbs for that last win and Trixster looks ill at ease with the class & distance. Minella Buster is also 9lbs higher than his last win four starts back, but the relatively unexposed Windance is only raised 3lbs for a 16-length success at Fontwell a months ago.

Chase form alone  looks like this...

...where some of the figures don't look as bad if we ignore hurdling form.

Past similar contests have not been kind to hold-up horses...

...but a fairly even amount of success has been shared by those adoption a different running-style. This field's last four outings look like this...

...and bottom weight No Hubs No Hoobs looks the most likely to be the back marker, but I should add that quite a few of these have inconsistent styles.

Summary

Short and hopefully sweet today, but the two LTO winners, Stormy Flight & Windance have to be the two to focus on. There's not really anything jumping out from what I've written above.

STORMY FLIGHT seems to have got his head around chasing and has been a runner-up and then a winner in his last two otuings after a fairly indifferent ten races since winning over hurdles at Uttoxeter almost three years ago. He won quite comfortably lkast time out, getting home by six lengths, but is up in class here and rated 9lbs better, which might eat plenty of a six-length win.

WINDANCE won back to back handicap hurdles in March 2021, but was off track for 580 days from his last hurdle run (May '21) to making his chase debut just three months ago. It took a couple of attempts over fences to get it right, but he won by 16 lengths at Fontwell a month ago, easing right down in the process, yet is only raised 3lbs here.

There's not really a great deal between the two and both won LTO and both are up in class and weight, but Stormy Flight is up 9lbs for a 6-length win and Windance is only up 3lbs for a 16-length romp. He's less exposed (10 races to 24) and with Anthony Honeyball's runners in such great form over the last month, I'm siding with Windance over Stormy Flight.

The bookies disagree and both Bet365 and Hills have Windance at 3/1 with Stormy Flight at 5/4 and 13/8. Both firms are paying three places here and the 7/1 Minella Buster and/or the 9/1 Valsheda might make foir decent E/W bets, especially if the latter gets a lead.

Racing Insights, Wednesday 08/03/23

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 1.40 Fontwell
  • 3.10 Fontwell
  • 3.20 Catterick
  • 5.35 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have only generated the following runners on 3o-day form for me to consider...

...and of the free races and those appearing on my TS report, the 3.10 Fontwell looks the best on paper. It's a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m 3f 67yds (after +18yd rail movement) on good ground that will be softer in places...

Bottom-weight Lifetime Legend was a seven-length winner at Catterick eight days ago and Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Kotmask and Pearly Island all had top three finishes last time out. Forever Blessed and Maclaine were both unplaced on handicap debuts LTO and now have a second crack with the latter having had wind surgery, whilst Guernesey makes a yard debut for Team Tizzard.

Pyramid Place's third place run three weekas ago was at Class 2, so he should appreciate a class drop, but Kotmask, Runswick Bay and Maclaine all step up one level from Class 4, whilst Lifetime Legend's LTO win was at Class 5. The card says that Krypton Gold is up three classes but that's from a run on the A/W, his last hurdles contest was at this level.

Forever Blessed has had a 15-week break and Runswick Bay has been off for ten weeks, but the rest have all raced in the last two months with Lifetime Legend's win eight days ago the most recent run of them all. We've no course and ditance winners, but those who have won here are Kotmask and Maclaine who have both won 2m2f hurdles here. Elsewhere, Guernesey, Pyramid Place, Runswick Bay, Pearly Island and Lifetime Legend have all been successful over similar trips to this one, whilst Instant Expert has the details re: going and class form...

...and it's a fairly uninspiring picture, I think I need to see place results before commenting further!

That looks much better, but Pearly Island looks very weak on both going and trip, Guernesey doesn't look as bad as on win form, but I'd like to focus on runners 3 to 6 here ie

Of these four...

PYRAMID PLACE has made the frame in 9 of 17 over hurdles, winning four times and has finished 3213 in his last four. He was raised 4lbs for his last win and despite a step up in class, only went down by two lengths at Wetherby recently. Down in class off the same has to put him in with a shout.

KRYPTON GOLD ran over 1m4f on the A/W most recently and that's not relly relevant to his chances here. His record over hurdles over the last year or so is very consistent finishing 21322235 with that last run being marred by a bad mistake two out when challenging. He doesn't win often enough and is probably as high in the weights as he can afford, but definite place potential.

KOTMASK might well be the one to beat here, he's unexposed after just seven starts from which he has made the frame four times, including two wins from his first two outings. He then found handicap racing a little tougher, but he has improved race by race, finishing 432 in his last three and he looks well placed for a big run here.

RUNSWICK BAY is arguably the weakest of this quartet, but has still placed in three of six over hurdles. part of the issue here is that since 6th April 2021, he has only raced three times (all over fences) and just twice since winning at Ludlow 17 months ago. He was off for over a year aftere that win and was beaten by 15 lengths on his comeback and was then pulled up when last seen on Boxing Day. No run for ten weeks now and hasn't tackled a hurdle in almost two years, he's hard to fancy up in class.

This type of race has been won in the past by those preferring to be further forward...

...and although there's no real pace in this field (suggesting a potential for a falsely run affair), Kotmask would be best suited of my highlighted quartet based on recent exploits...

...and it might well be left to Maclaine to set the fractions, whilst the other three I highlighted will all have work to do, if there is any pace.

Summary

After Instant Expert, I highlighted a 4-runner segment and i think that this is where I want to be with this group. I'd exclude Runswick Bay for reasons that should be obvious now and I'd probably have perennial placer Krypton Gold as least likely of my 1-2-3, leaving me to choose between Kotmask and Pyramid Place, with the former edging it on the pace aspect.

Kotmask is currently the 4/1 second favourite with Hills (only book open at 3.40pm), half a point longer than Pyramid Place and although two others are priced at 4/1 and 5/1, I think it's between these two here, meaning a small reverse forecast might pay off.

As for Krypton Gold, he's no stranger to making the frame and at 9/1, might well be the E/W play.

Racing Insights, Tuesday 07/03/23

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Hi guys, I'm back from Istanbul and ready to go again!

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where the top five on the list would be of more immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 3.15 Newcastle
  • 3.25 Lingfield
  • 3.50 Newcastle
  • 4.35 Lingfield

And as one of the top five on The Shortlist is also running in one of our 'free' races, we should see how top-weight Burrows Diamond might get on in the 3.15 Newcastle, a competitive-looking, five-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m7½f on good to soft ground that is good in places. The forecast is sunny and dry, so the track might quicken slightly for these...

None of these won LTO, but Glittering Love was a runner-up, beaten by just a head, whilst only featured horse Burrows Diamond and Donna's Double have won any of their last five outings. Glittering Love now steps up in class, however, but Burrows Diamond and The Ferry Master both drop down a level.

The latter now wears a visor for the first time and is the only course and distance winner in the field. Burrows Diamond has won here over 2m4½f and proved her stamina with a 3m½f win at Wetherby, whilst Frenchy du Large has won at neither track nor trip.

Donna's Double has never won beyond 2m4½f (Ayr) but had bumper and hurdles wins here over 2m½f and Glittering Love has won over 3m½f on a couple of occasions, but is yet to win here at Newcastle, as seen below...

Burrows Diamond, as expected, looks the standout on Instant Expert, albeit at 7lbs higher than her last win. Frenchy du Large looks relatively consistent if unspectacular. Donna's Double has little handicap experience, but does have a couple of non-hcp course wins to his name. The Ferry Master ticks a few boxes and has won over course and distance, but is probably better suited to Class 4 racing, whilst Glittering Love's place form is very interesting for a horse that really doesn't win often enough.

BURROWS DIAMOND produced two really good efforts in December at this grade to win at Wetherby (3m½f, soft) and then be a runner-up at Doncaster (3m, good) four weeks later. Not at her best at Uttoxeter next/last time out, but she was up in class that day. Back at Class 3 here and eased a pound, this should be more to her liking.

FRENCHY DU LARGE won a pair of 2m4f chases either side of Christmas 2021, but has raced just four times in the last year, falling twice and then going down by 22 lengths, before finishing third of five last time out and has yet to win in four starts beyond 2m5½f.

DONNA'S DOUBLE won on bumper debut, won on novice hurdle debut and won on handicap chase debut. The latter was in early January and he was raised 4lbs for that win, but could only manage 6th of 8 next/last time out. He has obvious potential but I'd say he'd want a shorter race on softer ground, but remains unexposed.

THE FERRY MASTER is the sole C&D winner, but that was back in November 2020 and he's 0 from 11 since; a run of form that has seen his mark slip from 134 to today's 117 and that speaks volumes. He should be able to win off this mark, but haiving been well beaten in his last five, it'd be a surprise if he did well.

GLITTERING LOVE has a decent record over fences, with 5 wins and 5 further places from 16 efforts and was only beaten by a head at Kelso last time out. He's up in class and weight here and isn't getting any younger at the age of 11, but he could go well here with the drop in trip possibly helping.

Based on their recent outings, I'd expect Frenchy du Large to be setting the pace with feature horse Burrows Diamond happy to sit back and let things unfold for a while...

...but past similar contests have favoured those likeliest to 'get on with things'...

Summary

For me, other than a pace disparity, feature horse Burrows Diamond ticks all the boxes and I think she's the one to beat. With such a small field, there's a real chance of  the race being falsely run, which play into the hands of those who tend to finish well and on that basis, plus the other positives about her, I'd suggest that 10/3 about Burrows Diamond might be a decent price.

As for the others, pace-setter Frenchy du Large might well hold on and looks big at 7/1, so he could be E/W material, but it's equally likely that if Burrows Diamond pulls through the pack later on. that he drags perennial placer Glittering Love along with her for the runner-up spot.

Racing Insights, Friday 03/03/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded three qualifiers at Newcastle's evening meet for Friday...

...and I can also fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races, which sadly (for me) is very Dundalk-heavy...

  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.55 Dundalk
  • 6.30 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Dundalk

I've no real interest in Dundalk, but the Lingfield contest looks a better one than the Newcastle H4C report races, so let's focus on the 3.00 Lingfield, an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on standard polytrack, where a first prize of almost £13k awaits one of these...

Dora Penny and Laheg both won LTO, whilst Baldomero, Crimson Sand and Tolstoy were runners-up, but Lequinto has failed to make the frame in five starts since back-to-back wins at Windsor last summer.

LTO winner Laheg is up a class here as is Aberama Gold, but Crimson Sand, Lequinto and the fast finisher Embour all drop down from Class 2.

Last year's winner of this race, Jack's Point and Crimson Sand have been off track the longest at 274 & 243 days respectively and both make debuts for their new yards here.

Baldomero is the only one yet to win at this trip, but hasn't yet tackled it and has won over 7f. Laheg is the only Lingfield debutant on display and of his rivals, Baldomero, Dora Penny, Lequinto and Tolstoy have yet to score here after 13 combined attempts. Embour won here over 5f (and over 6f on turf), but Crimson Sand, Jack's Point, Tyger Bay, Aberama Gold and Count Otto are all former course and distance winners.

It's a competitive field with the assessor only rating top weight Baldomero 6lbs better than bottom weight Count Otto, so William Carver's 3lb allowance on Tyger Bay could be very handy.

Most of these have experienced similar conditions before and here's how they've got on...

That's largely satisfactory, if not exactly spectacular. Most of them have done well enough, so let's look at the negatives, which for me are Baldomero's 1 from 10 on Standard going, Lequinto's record at class/track and Aberama Gold at class/trip. The latter is shown as being 8lbs below his last A/W win, but that was here over course and distance just before Christmas 2020! He has made the frame just once in 15 A/W starts since then. He has won on turf off just 2lbs higher than this as recently as five months ago, but has toiled away from grass.

I'm going to look at place form, though, before I discard any of these from my reckoning...

...and this is more useful/insightful for me. You don't win if you don't make the frame and the upturn in Baldomero's numbers for example suggest he's a better horse than just wins might show. I don't make too much fuss about field size, if I'm honest, but when considering place form, I only really want to be on runners with at least 2 'greens' from the four going/class/course/distance tabs, which for this race leaves me with (in draw order)...

I am a little concerned about Jack's Point form on standard going, even if he did win this race last year off the same mark as today. He has only raced three times since, failing to make the frame and was beaten by over 16 lengths when last home of seven at Chelmsford nine months ago. I really don't fancy his chance on yard debut, so I'm down to five spread across the track (Crimson Sand will run from #11) where the lower the draw the better chance of winning/placing...

However, that's not exactly true, as stall 1 hasn't fared as well due to the bend, I'd presume, which isn't great for Laheg. The stalls 2 to 8 corridor looks the place to be and that's where four of my six are and although high draws haven't had the best of it, box 11 of 11 has still done reasonably well, but I suspect that Crimson Sand would have to get out pretty sharpish to get near the front early on to stand much chance of landing this, especially based on this...

...which, in turn, removes any element of surprise from this...

And to see who the front runner might be, we check the pace scores from the field's last four races...

...where I suspect Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg will be the most prominent.

Summary

So, the three I've whittled it down to are Crimson Sand, Baldomero and Laheg, although I have a sneaking suspicion that Tyger Bay might go well here back at Lingfield. Crimson Sand is ultra-consistent at making the frame on the A/W with a pair of fourth placed finishes his worst results in a dozen outings. He's currently 8/1 with Hills, but some firms are paying four places and that would make him a decent enough E/W pick.

Baldomero is the one that I think might win, he has a good record over 7f and with a fairly brisk pace expected here, he could well win over 6f at the first time of asking, but Laheg will pose some questions for sure. He comes off a 10-week break during which he was gelded and he's 2 from 3 over 6f on the A/W, having won quite cosily last time out. This pair are 7/2 and 11/2 respectively and they're ones to focus on, I'd have thought.

Please note, I'm away on business with my other job for a couple of days, so my next piece will be a preview of Tuesday's racing.

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