Dave Renham | geegeez.co.uk

Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias

31 January 2022/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

In this final instalment in a series of articles looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks, we journey to Wolverhampton racecourse in the Midlands. Previous chapters can be found from the links below.

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

Chelmsford Racecourse Run Style Bias
Kempton Park Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Lingfield Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Newcastle Racecourse (AW) Run Style Bias
Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias

What I mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in its race, usually within the first furlong or so. So far in this series the statistics have shown that early position can be really important especially over shorter distances. Run style is often replaced by the word pace – this is because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up early in the race. Some people argue that the word pace is the wrong word to use because it is slightly ambiguous. Hence for this article I will generally stick to run style.

Geegeez.co.uk has something called the Query Tool which can also be used to investigate run style along with other factors such as the draw, trainers, jockeys, class, going, etc. My research for this piece has primarily come from using this excellent resource. The run style data (known as pace in the Query Tool) is split into four sections (led, prominent, mid-division, held up). Each one is also assigned a numerical value. The values go from 4 to 1, as follows: led gets 4 points, prominent 3, mid-division 2 and held up 1.

As with the previous articles in this series I will be looking at individual distances - primarily the shorter ones - with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data has been taken from 2016 up until 30^th September 2021.

Wolverhampton 5 furlong Run Style Bias

We begin with a look at the shortest trip, five furlongs, where races feature a shortish run to the single bend. The figures for Wolves (max field size is 11) are thus:

Horses that have led early (front runners) have the advantage here, a point which correlates with all other all-weather courses we have looked at. All have shown a good to strong front-running bias over 5f.

This advantage to early speed can also be seen when we drill down into the non-handicap data as shown in the table below:

In fact the bias is far stronger, which is likely down to the fact non-handicaps are usually less competitive than handicaps; as a result, the better horses are likely to have the natural speed to be front-runners, and are likely to have fewer challengers over the course of a race.

Returning to 5f handicaps, let us look at the draw data for all runners. I have split the draw into three parts to compare the percentage of winners from each third of the draw:

There is a small edge to low drawn runners as can be seen, but ultimately the draw seems relatively fair: high drawn runners still win more than one in every four races. Front runners are able to win from any draw berth, both in handicaps and in non-handicaps, so there is no real edge to be found by combining run style with draw.

Onto to 5f favourites at Wolverhampton and their performance across all running styles. For the vast majority of course and distance combinations we have looked at in this series, front running favourites have outperformed other run style favourite counterparts:

Once again front-running favourites do best, but the gap to the next two early position groups is smaller than we have previously seen. Having said that, favourites that were held up have a dreadful record once again. Indeed, backing these held up favourites over five furlongs would have yielded a loss of over 51p in the £. For the record, backing front-running favourites would have produced a decent profit of 22p in the £.

This market / run style bias is replicated when we focus on horses from the top three of the betting over this 5f trip. This time a graphical representation, where we can see a beautiful linearity:

The number of runners does not seem to make any difference to front running performance over the minimum at Wolves. However, hold up horses have performed better in smaller fields – in 8 runner races their A/E value is 0.78, in 11 runner races this drops to 0.54. The sample sizes are solid so I imagine this finding is a sound one.

Over 5f, therefore, in both handicaps and non handicaps, predicting the front runner in as many races as possible is likely to provide a potential avenue to profits.

Wolverhampton 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Moving on to 6f handicaps now, where the maximum field size rises to 13. The stalls are positioned in a chute at the far end of the back straight, allowing the field a good amount of time to settle and find a position. Here are the data - there is a good chunk of races to analyse:

This represents a change of picture compared with 5f contests. Front runners and those racing prominently have very similar figures and it is clear that, as a group, they hold an edge over horses that race mid division or are held up. Having said that this run style bias is relatively modest when compared with other tracks we've looked at. That view is further illustrated when looking at the favourite / run style data, which are far more even than we've typically seen:

Favourites that are held up still struggle but not nearly as much as over five furlongs here, and at many other courses and distances; the other three run styles have virtually identical records.

A quick look at the draw next and as can be seen it is a very even playing field:

Before moving on to 7f handicaps, let us take a quick look at non-handicap run style data – here we do have a clear run style bias.

There is a significant bias towards front runners, which is replicated when comparing their A/E values:

In summary, over 6f at Wolverhampton, handicaps offer a small run style edge; that edge is much stronger and looks more ‘playable’ in non-handicaps.

Wolverhampton 7 furlong Run Style Bias

We move on to look at 7f handicaps next. The maximum field size drops to 12 here, and races start in a chute on a tangent joining the bend before the back straight:

These figures are very similar to the 6f ones. The strongest run style bias here is the one against hold up horses. Front runners have a slight edge over prominent racers who in turn have a slight edge over mid pack runners.

The performance of favourites over seven furlongs at Wolverhampton across different running styles is shown in the next table.

This looks more ‘normal’ again with front running favourites performing best. Mid-division favourites have surprisingly outperformed their prominent counterparts. Held up favourites again have a dismal record, winning on average just one race in every six and racking up losses of 43p in the £ if you backed all of them.

The draw stats are virtually even for each third of the draw so there is no edge there.

Interesting, the 7f trip, as with the 6f one, has much stronger run style stats in non-handicaps as the SR% table shows:

As you might hope, A/E values largely correlate too:

The 7f and 6f run style stats across handicap and non-handicaps are very similar, in spite of the differing stall starting positions. Once again over seven furlongs, non-handicaps will probably offer better opportunities from a run style bias perspective than handicaps.

Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias Conclusions

Wolverhampton has probably the weakest overall bias of the five all-weather tracks we've considered from a run style perspective. However, there is a decent front-runner bias over 5f in handicaps, while in non-handicaps the same early pace bias looks significant at races up to and including 7f.

It is important to appreciate the value of avoiding bad bets as well as finding good ones. In that context, Wolverhampton should offer a few solid run style betting opportunities, but knowing how poorly fancied runners fare when held up should put us off some bad ones, too.

- DR

p.s. if you've enjoyed this article, you can view my other contributions to geegeez.co.uk here.

Kempton Racecourse All Weather Run Style Bias

24 January 2022/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

This is the fourth article of my series looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks and this time we'll look for run style/pace biases at Kempton Park, writes Dave Renham. Kempton is the only right handed all-weather track in the UK and all races are contested around at least one bend. There are two loops at Kempton, an inner loop used for 5f and 1m2f races, and an outer loop for all other distances.

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

Run style refers to the position a horse takes up early in the race, usually within the first furlong or so. I have written numerous articles where the stats demonstrate that this early position can be really important, especially over shorter distances. The word pace is sometimes used instead of running style because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position.

Geegeez.co.uk has numerous excellent attributes including two extremely user-friendly resources to help you investigate run style. If you head to the Tools tab of Geegeez there is the Pace Analyser. This focuses solely on run style / pace and is an excellent and quick starting point. In addition this you have the Query Tool which can also be used to investigate run style along with other factors such as the draw, trainers, jockeys, class, going, etc. I personally use the Query Tool far more because of its ability to test more angles in combination with running style.

The stats I am using for this piece are based on the site’s pace / run style data. This data is split into four sections, each one being assigned a numerical value. The values go from 4 to 1, with 4 equating to horses that lead early (front runners); 3 is given to horses that race prominently and track the leader(s); horses that race mid pack / mid-division are assigned 2 points while horses held up at, or near the back, score 1.

As with the previous articles in this series I will be looking at individual distances – primarily the shorter ones with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data has been taken from 2016 up until 30^th September 2021.

Kempton 5 furlong Run Style Bias

A look at the minimum trip first which, as mentioned, is run around the inner loop with competitors on the turn for a significant percentage of the race distance. Let us look at the run style (pace) figures for Kempton:

There is a very significant run style bias over 5f at Kempton with front runners enjoying a huge edge. Sadly though, 5f handicaps are relatively few and far between at the track, and this pattern of limited races has been repeated in non-handicaps. For the record, there have been just 13 non-handicap races over 5f with eight or more runners since 2016 – the run style bias is the same as one would expect, with 6 wins for front runners, 5 for prominent racers and only 2 for the remainder.

Going back to the 5f handicap races here is a look at front runner performance by draw:

The draw, as a whole, generally favours the lower stalls and hence I had expected front runners to have the highest SR% from the lowest draws. However, as the table shows, front runners seem to be able to win from anywhere. This even looking spread may simply be down to the small sample size, but more likely it is because the front running bias is stronger than the low draw bias. This means the draw almost becomes irrelevant for these trail blazers.

For draw fans, here are the overall draw strike rates for all runners, not just front runners. This time I have split the draw data into three equal parts to look at percentage of winners from each third of the draw:

There is a fair edge to low drawn runners as can be seen, but it is not as strong as the run style bias.

Despite the limited number of races over 5f each year, it is clear that when they do occur, we need to take note. Being able to predict the front runner in these events will almost certainly prove very profitable over time.

Kempton 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Onto 6f handicaps now, and there are many more races here to get stuck into. The maximum field size over 6f at Kempton is 12 and this is how run style impacts performance:

Kempton has the strongest front running bias over 6f that we have seen so far at an all-weather track. However, in more recent seasons front runners have fared less well as far as winning is concerned. The graph below shows quite a drop off in win strike rate:

The SR% from 2016 to 2018 was 22%, compared to around 15% in the last three seasons (2019 to 2021). However, if we look at win and placed stats (each way stats), the strike rates are reversed:

The recent data concerning the each way stats makes me think that the front running bias continues to be fairly strong over 6f. The seasons 2019 and 2020 were probably slight outliers in reality with several front runners running well, but probably not quite making it home in front. Indeed, confidence in my opinion is helped further by the fact that the last 21 front runners of 2021 (up to 30^th Sept) have provided seven winners (SR 33.3%).

Onto to 6f favourites at Kempton and their performance across all running styles:

A strong edge exists for front-running favourites. We have seen this numerous times now with different all weather courses and distances. This market / run style bias is replicated when we focus on horses from the top three of the betting over this 6f trip:

All in all, then, horses towards the top of market have a very good record when taking the early lead.

Let us look at the draw next, firstly for all runners. Once again I have split the draw into thirds:

As we can see, low drawn runners (those closest to the inside rail) have a decent edge, slightly stronger from a draw perspective than we saw with the 5f stats. Middle draws win as many races as one would expect given a level playing field, while the wider higher draws tend to struggle a little.

The table below shows the performance of front runners in 6f handicaps by stall position.

As we saw with the 5f data, front runners can win from anywhere, but in general over this furlong longer trip the lower drawn the better. This can be seen more clearly if I split the stalls into two, comparing draws 1 to 6 with draws 7 to 12.

Hence, a potential front runner drawn 6 or lower is the type of horse that might be expected perform well. If they happen to be in the top three in the betting, then such a horse becomes a very interesting proposition. Indeed, looking at all horses that led early from draws 1 to 6 that were in the top three in the betting, the stats show that 34% of them went onto win (67% win & placed).

Finally in terms of 6f handicap run style data I want to look quickly at field size. It seems that the more runners, the stronger the front running bias. Here is front runner performance split by field size:

A better strike rate has been achieved by front-runners in 11- to 12-runner 6f handicap races, when compared with 8- to 10-runner handicaps, coupled with a better A/E value and Impact Value.

With so many races over 6f, one would expect some good betting opportunities to appear here considering the decent front running bias.

Kempton 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Let's move on to the 7f trip now. Field size increases to a maximum of 14 runners at this distance. Here are the run style splits:

The front running bias here is similar to the 6f one, and A/E values for early leaders at the two distances correlate closely (1.48 versus 1.44). The strike rate is lower, due to the average field size being greater over 7f.

The front running bias has been consistent over the past six seasons as can be seen when we compare the front running SR%s in three yearly blocks:

A slightly stronger performance has transpired over the past three seasons but nothing statistically significant.

Favourite performance in 7f handicaps is next on the list: will the same type of front running favourite bias manifest over 7f?

An even more potent market / run style bias can be seen here. Indeed, front running favourites have returned profits of 23p in the £ in the study period. Compare that with favourites that were held up early, a group that lost a whopping 44p in the £.

Looking at the top three in the betting and combining them with a specific run style produces a similar result – backing all relevant front runners would have yielded a profit of 26p in the £; hold up horses from the top three in the betting would have lost 21p in the £.

Next stop a look at the draw – firstly for all runners and run styles:

Horses drawn closest to the inside rail (low) have an edge but it is not as strong as over 6f.

Now focusing on solely front runners and the draws they come from.

In general, more of the lower drawn horses lead early, but it seems that front runners are able to win from any draw. Front runners drawn 2 have an excellent record but this is an anomaly when comparing with draws 1, 3 and 4.

The last thing to discuss in terms of 7f handicap run style data is field size. We saw over 6f that bigger fields increased the front running bias. Is it the same over an extra furlong?

The strike rates are similar, but races with fewer runners should produce higher strike rates for the front runner. We need to look at the A/E value and to a lesser extent the Impact Value. Both figures show a higher performance value from front runners in bigger fields, which correlates neatly with the 6f findings.

Taking all this data into account, punters that use run style as a key component in their betting should be looking closely at qualifying handicap races here over 7f. Potential betting opportunities await.

Kempton 1 Mile Run Style Bias

Onto the mile distance now, where runners have the full length of the back straight to establish a position, and the maximum field size moves up to 16.

Over this fairer constitution, we are moving towards run style parity. Front runners still have a very slight edge but not one we can easily take advantage of.

There is one extra statistic I wish to share with you at this distance, however, which is looking at run style bias in conjunction with the race favourite. Once again we see the same pattern as before, even though the overall front running bias is minimal:

Front running favourites have won roughly twice the number of races compared with favourites that were held up.

Kempton Run Style Bias at 1m2f and 1m3f

There were only 16 qualifying races at a mile and a quarter going back to 2016, this distance being contested on the tighter inner loop, so the data set is far too small to try and analyse. However, over an extra furlong, 1m3f, it is worth a scan of the handicap data as the figures surprised me a little (max field size is 16):

There does appear to be a slight run style bias with front runners again performing pretty well. I cannot really explain this, except that perhaps the proximity of the first bend gives those on the lead an edge in terms of distance travelled and/or luck in running. When betting in such contests I would definitely prefer to be on a horse that is near the front early than held up at the back.

Kempton Run Style Bias: Conclusions

Kempton's all-weather circuit is a track where run style bias is relatively strong from 5f to 7f; these are the distances I would mainly concentrate on. Front runners have a good advantage across all three, while prominent racers are preferable to those racing further back early. Once again I would not be wanting to back a horse that is likely to be held up.

- DR

Run style analysis of a selection of National Hunt trainers

10 January 2022/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

Regular readers will know of my interest in the impact of run style and, in this article, six National Hunt trainers come under the spotlight as I look for running style patterns which might lead to profitable angles, writes Dave Renham. The trainers in question are Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Donald McCain, Venetia Williams and Alan King. I have looked at data between January 1^st 2015 and December 31^st 2021, seven years in total.

Before I start in earnest, however, a quick recap of running styles for all new readers and how Geegeez can help with understanding them.

The first furlong or so of any race sees each horse take up its early position and soon the horses settle into their racing rhythm. Normally these positions do not change too much for the first part of the race. The position each horse takes early can be matched to a running style - www.geegeez.co.uk has a pace section on its racecards that highlights which running style each horse has taken up early in a race. There are four run style groups, as follows:

Led – horses that take the early lead (the front runner). In National Hunt racing you generally get just one front runner, but occasionally there may be two or more horses disputing the early lead;

Prominent – horses that track close behind the leader(s);

Mid Division - horses that take up a more midfield position;

Held Up – horses that are held up near to or at the back of the field.

These running styles are assigned a numerical figure ranging from 4 to 1; Led gets 4, Prominent 3, Mid Division 2 and Held Up 1. Having numbers assigned to runners helps greatly with analysis as you may have seen in previous articles.

Run Style Analysis: All races

To begin with, let's take a look at all National Hunt races combined, breaking down the running styles of all horses for each of our six trainers. Connections, most notably the trainers, can clearly have a significant influence on the running style of their horses: most will give instructions to their jockeys before the race telling them how they would prefer the horses to be ridden.

Below, the table shows which percentage of each trainer's runners displayed one of the four running styles. I have included the figure for ALL trainers (1527 trainers combined!) as the 'control':

As can be seen there is quite a contrast; both Alan King and Jonjo O’Neill are clearly largely averse to sending their runners into an early lead. In contrast Donald Mc Cain, Venetia Williams and, to a lesser extent, Paul Nicholls seem happy to send a decent proportion of their runners to the front early.

In terms of their success with early leaders / front runners – all of them exceed 20% when it comes to strike rate (see graph below). For the record, 20% is the average winning figure for front runners in all National Hunt races.

Henderson and Nicholls have a simply stunning record with front runners – a strike rate for both of pushing 40%. Now I have mentioned before that if as punters we had access to a crystal ball pre-race to see which horse would be taking the early lead, it would be a license to print money. Here are the hypothetical profit/loss figures for the front runners of the six trainers to once again prove that point:

Combining all trainers in the list would have yielded an SP profit of £394.91 to £1 level stakes. Now, as we know, predicting which horse is going to take the early lead is far from an exact science. However, with some detailed analysis of the trainers in the race, as well as the horses concerned there will be opportunities to maximise our chances of nailing down the likely front runner.

Run Style Analysis: Chases

I have noted in previous pieces that front runners in chases make the biggest profits in terms of National Hunt racing, so let us see how our six trainers perform in these races. Here are their win strike rates with front runners in chases. In the table I have included their All races front running SR% to facilitate comparison:

Similar figures for each trainer although Alan King’s figure drop about 5%.

And here are the hypothetical profits from identifying and backing these front runners in chases over the course of the seven years in the sample:

All six trainers would have been in profit to SP – a combined profit of £350.38 to £1 level stakes indicates why chases are so ‘front runner’ friendly.

I have also looked at the percentage of their runners which displayed a front running style in chases – as with the All Race data I shared earlier, two trainers (King and O’Neill) are far less likely to send their charges to the front early:

It still staggers me every time I see trainers that send a low percentage of their runners to the front early. Just one in twelve of Jonjo O’Neill’s runners goes into an early lead in a chase. However, when they do, they win nearly 25% of the time (one race in four). Compare this to his record with hold up horses in chases. Nearly 45% of all Jonjo O’Neill’s runners in chases are held up early – but just 11% go onto win. It’s nuts! [For all that there might be other reasons for holding certain horses up on some occasions - Ed.]

Hold up horses do not perform well in chases either – to illustrate this here are the chase records of the six trainers with their hold up runners:

The summary on hold up horses is low strike rates and huge losses all round. This group will, of course, include a subset of no-hopers though, in relation to such high profile trainers, there will be fewer of these than for most other handlers.

Run Style Analysis: Hurdle races

Generally speaking, hurdle races do not offer as strong a front running edge as chases, but it is still preferable to lead early compared with other running styles.

With that in mind, let us review the hypothetical profits from our trainers' front runners in hurdle races:

Some good strike rates for Nicholls, Henderson and King, but not the wall to wall profits seen in the chases analysis.

It is noticeable that, as a whole, the six trainers send out a smaller proportion of front runners in hurdle races as compared to chases. This will be in part due to typically smaller field sizes in chases then in hurdles, but that doesn't fully account for the differentials. The graph below illustrates:

Alan King has sent just less than 4% of his hurdlers into an early lead despite these runners scoring 35% of the time. As a comparison, his held up runners (which account for 37% of all King's hurdlers) won just 13% of the time.

Run Style Analysis: Full Summary

To conclude, I'd like to share the individual trainer win strike rate data across all four running styles in different race types. I have included National Hunt flat races, too. These races do not give front runners as strong an edge although they still perform better than any of the other three running styles.

The table below gives a very clear picture as to why run style is so important. It shows the significant edge front runners have overall; it also shows that prominent runners perform far better than horses that race mid division or are held up.

- Dave Renham

Lingfield Racecourse All Weather Run Style Bias

15 December 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

This is the third article in a series where I am looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks. Today, Lingfield Park run style bias is coming under scrutiny.

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

What I mean by run style is the position a horse takes up within the first furlong or so of the race. There are two powerful resources to investigate run style in the Tools tab of Geegeez. The first is the Pace Analyser which looks solely at run style / pace, and secondly the Query Tool which can also be used to extend this type of research. I tend to use the Query Tool simply because I can examine a few more angles in relation to running style.

Running style is often linked with the word pace because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position.

The stats I am using with you here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. This data is split into four sections; each section is assigned a numerical value:

Led (4) – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front runner;

Prominent (3) – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);

Mid Division (2) – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point;

Held up (1) – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

For this piece I will be looking at individual distances – mainly the shorter ones with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps.

The data has been taken from 1^st January 2016 up until 30^th September 2021.

Lingfield 5 furlong Run Style Bias

Handicaps

A look at the shortest trip first. Let us look at the run style (pace) figures:

These figures virtually mirror those for Chelmsford 5f run style with a clear advantage to front runners. It should also be noted that front runners have reached the frame nearly 58% of the time. Prominent runners are next best; meanwhile horses that were held up or raced mid pack early have been at a big disadvantage.

The front running bias has been consistent at this track for many years and if we look back further into the past, from 2012 to 2015, I can tell you the front running record was virtually identical – strike rate during that period was 23.42%; A/E value was 1.60 and the IV stood at 2.11.

As far as the draw is concerned front runners prefer a middle to lower draw as the graph below shows. Having said that wide drawn front runners still perform well above the expected norm.

Let me now share the data of 5f handicap favourites at Lingfield with you across all running styles:

These stats are not as potent as the Chelmsford 5f equivalent, but even so, as a favourite backer it is clear you would prefer your horse to lead early.

Non-Handicaps

As regular readers will know I prefer to stick to handicap stats for things like run style or draw bias, but it is sometimes worth sharing non-handicap data, too. Over 5f at Lingfield in 8+ runner non-handicaps, the run style bias is extremely potent as the graphs below show. Firstly a look at strike rate across the four categories:

The front running bias is stronger in non-handicaps – probably down to the fact that some non-handicap races lack the depth of competition that handicaps typically possess.

A quick look next at the A/E comparisons for run style in non-handicap 5f events:

There is clear correlation between strike rate and A/E values. All in all, then, front runners have a strong edge in 5f races at Lingfield, be it handicaps or non-handicaps. Prominent racers do pretty well, too, and it is clear that horses that race midfield or at the back early are putting themselves at a significant disadvantage.

Lingfield 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Onto 6f handicaps with 8+ runners. The run style (pace) figures are as follows:

The overall stats suggest a front running bias, with hold up horses continuing to struggle. However, if we look at year by year records for front runners, a significant change seems to have occurred in recent years:

2016 and 2017 saw a huge front running edge, but from 2018 onwards front runners have started to actually look to be at a disadvantage. The more recent stats (last two seasons) are favouring prominent racers with horses that race mid-division outperforming front runners. Strike rate data shown in the graph below shows this latest pattern neatly:

What is equally as quirky is that in the last two seasons in 6f non-handicap races (8+ runners), the front running bias has been enormous:

During this time frame in non-handicaps, 9 of the 21 races were won by the early leader / front runner, while horses that raced mid division or were held up combined to produce just one winner from 136 runners!

There are times when you cannot explain certain anomalies and this recent conflicting 6f data is one such occasion. Perhaps is simply a weird function of a small dataset: I can only recommend a watching brief this winter.

Lingfield 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Up to 7f now and the run style splits for this distance at Lingfield (8+ runner handicaps):

Again the overall six year stats give front runners a solid edge, with the performance of prominent runners much stronger than those running mid division or near/at the back early. However, as with the 6f stats, the front running performance was much better in 2016 and 2017. The ‘drop off’ has not been anywhere as bad over 7f as it was over 6f, but looking at the 2018 – 2021 data possibly gives a more accurate run style / pace picture.

I can say with some confidence that over 7f there is definite advantage to run in the front half of the field in the early part of the race. Front runners and prominent runners clearly outperform mid division/held up runners.

Moving on, I want to look again solely at favourites and their run style over the past six years or so. We can see that front running favourites outperform every other type of favourite in terms of run style:

A very impressive set of figures for front running favourites; once again favourites that race off the pace early tend to underperform. For the record, from 2018 onwards the front running win percentage was just under 40% and is still clearly better than the rest.

Now, it's time to study more market data – let's look at front runners in terms of their market rank. We have already seen that favourites have done well but what about the rest? At Chelmsford we noticed a strong market bias pattern, which is replicated over 7f here at Lingfield:

Second favourites (or joint-/co- second favourites) who lead early manage to win roughly 1 in every 3 races which is impressive. As we can see once we get to 6^th or bigger in the betting, front runners simply do not generally have the class or ability to win. This shows once again that racing is not just about one aspect, we have to combine factors to give us a clearer picture. Run style is often one of the key factors, but we cannot rely solely on this regardless of how the strong the bias may seem.

Looking at the draw, front runners have struggled a little from middle draws. Not sure why this may be the case, especially as wide drawn front runners have actually done the best of any draw section. Perhaps it is due to the distance to the first bend in the race, about two furlongs, which may enable those wider drawn that want to lead to get across their middle-drawn counterparts; but it's unclear, to be honest.

The graph below shows the strike rates for the draw (max field size of 14):

Overall the 7f trip does offer an edge from a run style perspective – I would definitely prefer to be backing a horse that is going to race up with or close to the pace early.

Lingfield 1 mile Run Style Bias

This is where the run style stats start to even up at Lingfield. Below are the splits for 1 mile at Lingfield (8+ runner handicaps):

Hold up horses continue to struggle although their record is better at this distance compared with the three shorter trips. Front runners still score more often than they statistically should but it is becoming more marginal; prominent racers and horses that race mid division have virtually identical records.

Lingfield 1m2f+ Run Style Bias

Lingfield has a few distances of 1m2f or further and I have lumped the data together as it is very similar across each race trip. As you would expect, front runners are now not favoured and have become only the third most successful run style:

Preference therefore at longer distances is for prominent racers / mid pack runners. Having said that, I would not be personally using run style as a key ingredient to try and sort out races beyond a mile.

Lingfield All Weather Run Style Bias Conclusions

Over 5 furlongs at Lingfield on the all weather, front runners have a very strong edge and prominent racers perform well too.

I would keep a watching brief over 6f for the time being as the data appears somewhat contradictory in recent seasons.

At 7 furlongs I definitely want my horse to be nearer the front than the back early, while the mile trip is not one I personally play very often, but in general my advice would still be to avoid hold up horses unless you have some compelling form data to the contrary.

Good luck!

- DR

Newcastle Racecourse All Weather Run Style Bias

30 November 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

In this second article of a new series where I have been looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks, we travel up North (from where I'm writing, at least) to Newcastle, writes Dave Renham. Newcastle changed from a turf flat course to an all weather one in 2016, employing a Tapeta surface for the new project.

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

Run style is connected with the position a horse takes up early in a race, usually within the first furlong. This early position can be really important over certain course and distance combinations as we have seen in many of my previous articles on the subject; and not just on the flat, but in National Hunt racing too.

Geegeez.co.uk has two key resources to help you investigate run style. In the Tools tab of Geegeez there is the Pace Analyser which looks solely at run style / pace, and you also have the Query Tool which can be used to investigate run style / pace along with other factors such as going, draw, trainer, class, etc. For all of these articles I use the Query Tool because, as previous noted, it can test more angles in combination with running style. Running style is often linked with the word pace because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position.

The stats I am using for this piece are based on the site’s pace / run style data. For those of you unfamiliar with this data it is split into four sections, each of which has a numerical value. The highest is 4, which equates to horses that lead early, down to a value of 1, which is given to horses that are held up at, or near, the back of the field early. Horses that race prominently (just behind the leader) score 3, and horse that race mid pack / mid division are assigned a 2.

As with the previous article in this series I will be looking at individual distances - primarily the shorter ones - with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data has been taken from 17th May 2016, the first meeting on the Newcastle tapeta surface, up until 30^th September 2021.

Newcastle 5 furlong Run Style Bias

We'll start with a look at the shortest trip. Let us look at the run style (pace) figures for Newcastle:

The 5f front running bias is a solid one, but not as strong as some other all-weather minimum distances. Also hold up horses, which struggled badly elsewhere, have been much more competitive here. This is probably down to the fact that Newcastle’s 5f is run on a straight track whereas others we have looked at are run round a bend.

The strike rate for front runners has been relatively consistent when splitting into groups of three years (2016-2018, and 2019-2021):

Front-running strike rates have been relatively consistent at between 15 and 16%, assuming field size has remained largely constant, which it has.

Onto market leaders next. Let me share the data of 5f handicap favourites at Newcastle with you across all running styles:

As with the previous favourite stats I have shared in this series, front running favourites fare exceptionally well, albeit in this case from a small sample size. Overall, favourites have struggled over this course and distance losing 18p in the £, while front running favourites would have yielded returns of 76p in every £1!

Newcastle 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Onto 6f handicaps now. The run style (pace) figures are as follows:

The overall stats again suggest a front running bias, but it is little less potent than it is over 5f. Having said that, front runners have a similar edge when you combine the win and placed stats (each way stats) for each grouping as the graph below shows:

One area where there is big difference in terms of front running performance comes when we look at field size. In smaller (8 to 10 runner) fields, those on the front have done much better than in bigger fields (11 to 14).

These stats are quite contrasting; it may be down to the fact that hold up horses (which make up comfortably the bigger run style section) are much more competitive than is usual over 6f. Bigger fields means more hold up horses, of which only one needs to come through to win. To offer more confidence in these findings, the front running win and placed stats (each way) correlate with the win percentages as this graph below shows:

Looking at the fate of favourites over six furlongs at Newcastle and I'll start with their performance across all running styles:

This is the first time we have not seen an edge for front running favourites. That might be down to the relatively small sample of 25 runners; and we do get a more familiar picture if we combine the top three in the betting when looking across all running styles:

Front runners from the top three in the betting have re-established a significant advantage. Indeed, if you had access to a crystal ball pre-race, knowing a) who was going to lead early and b) if those leaders would be in the top 3 of the betting at the off, you would have made a profit of 61p for every £1 wagered. Sadly, it's not always the easy to discern (though, naturally, the tools on geegeez give you a far better chance than Joe Punter).

All in all, front runners remain the most interesting group in 6f handicaps at Newcastle from a run style perspective.

Newcastle 7 furlong Run Style Bias

The 7f trip is also run on a straight course and here are the run style splits:

We are now edging towards parity in terms of run style win performance with a relatively even set of figures. Horses that race mid division have the poorest record, but hold up horses are now almost on par with front runners in terms of SR% and A/E values.

Interestingly though, front running favourites conform to the ‘usual model’ of easily outperforming their counterparts as the table below illustrates:

A 45p in the £ profit could have been achieved by backing all favourites that took the early lead. Interestingly, favourites that were held up also would have made a small profit of 6p in the £, though their win strike rate has been notably lower than the trailblazers.

In conclusion 7f at Newcastle is not a combination where a run style / pace edge is easy to find.

Newcastle 1 mile Run Style Bias

This is the longest distance where horses race on the straight track at Newcastle. Here are the figures:

In contrast to what we've seen so far, though perhaps hinted at by the 'changing of the guard' seven-furlong range, front runners struggle over this mile trip, whereas hold up horses actually perform best. Indeed if you had backed all 1114 hold up runners you would have actually made a starting price profit which is impressive. Let's see if we can find any angles where the hold up run style bias strengthens.

One area where hold up horses do seem to have a stronger edge is when the field size gets close to or up to maximum. 14 runners is the ceiling, and if we look at 13 or 14 runner handicaps the hold up bias strengthens. First a comparison of the SR%s.

Hold up horses have roughly double the strike rate of the other three pace categories. Their A/E [market performance] values correlate perfectly too:

This is a very impressive A/E value of 1.21 for hold up horses in bigger field mile handicaps at Newcastle. The other three run style categories labour at between 0.56 and 0.60, where 1.0 is a par score.

In terms of market position, hold up horses that were in the top three in the betting perform well: of the 289 runners, 68 won equating to a decent strike rate of 23.5% (A/E 1.14; IV 2.70).

Compare this to hold up horses ranked 4^th or lower in the market and the strike rate collapses to 5.82% (48 wins from 825 runners), while A/E value drops to 0.93 and IV drops markedly to 0.67.

As far as favourites go, let me compare the performance of each specific run style.

Hold up horses that start favourite perform well but they been marginally out-performed by prominent racing favourites. What is interesting is the dreadful record of front running favourites, albeit from a small sample, with just a single winner from 27 to attempt to make all.

So the mile trip definitely favours hold up horses; keep an eye out for maximum or near maximum sized fields which seems to strengthen the bias.

Newcastle 1 mile 2 furlongs Run Style Bias

This is the first distance where the horses race on the round course.

In truth, I had expected a more come from behind profile to be effective at this course/distance combination. However, prominent racers have fared best and relatively comfortably best at that.

Newcastle 1 mile 4 furlongs Run Style Bias

Finally a look at the 1½ mile trip:

Prominent racers again have the best of it and that close-to-but-not-on-the-speed run style looks the preferred approach on the turning track in 8+ runner 10-12 furlong handicaps.

Newcastle Run Style Bias Conclusions

Over five furlongs front runners have a very decent edge and they also fare best over 6f. However, over 7f the front running edge has all but disappeared, while hold up horses have the call in mile races. Finally, over the longer distances of 1m2f and 1m 4f, run on the round course, it is prominent racers who have an overall advantage.

- DR

Chelmsford Racecourse Run Style Bias

22 November 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

Welcome to the first article of a new series where I will be looking at run style bias at individual all weather tracks, writes Dave Renham. All weather racing is now a ‘staple’ of our winter racing diet and there will be plenty of betting opportunities, starting today, in the coming months for punters at all of the six British courses, as well as Dundalk which I'll not be covering. For this series of articles, I will also not investigate Southwell as they changed the surface from fibresand to tapeta from 7th December 2021.

To view other all-weather track run style biases, choose from the below:

What I mean by run style is the position a horse takes early in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools menu tab. There is the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which can be used to undertake this type of research for yourself. Running style is often linked with pace because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines their early position. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable.

The stats I am sharing here are based on the site’s pace / run style data. These data on Geegeez are split into four sections – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the score assigned to each section. The numbers are really helpful as you can drill down into them to help build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be.

Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front runner;

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point;

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

Chelmsford City Racecourse is the first all-weather track under the microscope. I will be looking at individual distances with the focus being 8+ runner handicaps. The data have been taken from 1^st January 2016 up until 30^th September 2021, five years and nine months' worth.

Chelmsford 5 furlong Run Style Bias

We'll start with a look at the minimum trip where the race start is close to the bend (see image at the top of this post). Let us look at the run style (pace) figures:

These figures clearly illustrate that the advantage is to horses that have led, or disputed the lead, in Chelmsford 5f handicaps. Horses that have race mid-division or further back early have a relatively poor record, both in win terms and profitability. As the shortest race distance, 5f races allow the least amount of time for runners to make their challenge from the back. Hence at most courses, both all weather and turf and especially around a turn, there is a strong front-running bias.

The success of front runners has been fairly consistent as the graph below shows; here I have looked at the winning strike rates (SR%) of front runners split into two year groupings (2016-2018 and 2019 to Sept 30^th 2021).

As you can see there has been a similar front running performance in terms of strike rate: marginally better between 2016 and 2018 but probably not statistically significant. The A/E values correlate in the same way:

Again these were slightly higher in the 2016 to 2018 period (1.69), compared with an A/E value of 1.57 over the past three years. One might expect that market edge to erode further in coming years but there still appears plenty of 'juice' for now.

The draw for front runners does not seem to make too much difference – interestingly it is not the very low drawn front runners who have secured the highest strike rate, it is those drawn 5 to 7. In truth though, individual stall data provide a relatively small sample size so we should not read too much into them.

It is also interesting to look at the performance of front runners in terms of their market rank (position in the betting).

As we can see, front runners who are favourites have won more than half of their races. In general, horses that are relatively unfancied (those 7^th or higher in the betting market) have been unable to retain their early lead. This of course makes sense, but it shows that it is something we need to factor in if we are thinking about backing a potential front runner: race position is best when coupled with some kind of ability, as predicted by the betting markets!

While digging into market factors I noticed that front runners that were priced 5/1 or less won 24 times from 59 races. This equates to a strike rate over 40%. Not only that, a further 20 placed giving an impressive win & placed percentage figure of 74.6%.

Now you might be reading this thinking that OK, we’d expect this type of market bias. However, let me share the data of 5f handicap favourites at Chelmsford with you across all running styles:

Looking at this, do you want to be backing a favourite that is likely to be held up? Or even one that is projected to race mid-division? Naturally, we cannot 100% predict what run style a horse will show in any one race - and sometimes horses miss the break or adopt a surprising tactic - but most tend to conform to a favoured style which helps steer us in the right direction.

Finally in this 5f section I’d like to split the data down further by number of runners – specifically, races with 8 or 9 runners compared with races of 10 or more runners. Here are the relevant A/E value comparisons for each running style:

It seems that bigger fields give front runners a slightly stronger edge and hinders hold up horses even more.

Chelmsford 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Moving up a furlong to the second sprint trip of 6f at Chelmsford, where they have a longer run to the turn, let us look at the run style (pace) figures:

The front running bias is not as strong over this extra furlong but it remains fairly significant. As with five furlong handicaps, the nearer you are to the early pace the better.

The bias has remained relatively consistent since 2016 and the average SR% for front runners over the past two seasons has been 19% (slightly above the 6-year average). Draw wise, front runners are again able to win from low, middle or high – there is no clear draw/pace angle here.

Looking at market rank there is also a similar pattern to the 5f data. Front runners from the top three in the betting have provided 36 wins from 114 runners (SR 31.58%); the rest of the betting market has provided 14 wins from 187 (SR 7.49%). Comparing the A/E values we can see there is much more value in front runners who come from the top three in the betting:

It is rare to talk about shorter priced runners being ‘value’ but these front runners seem to be.

Looking again solely at the overall performance of favourites by run style, we can see that front running favourites outperform every other type of favourite in terms of run style:

The bias to front running favourites is far less potent than it was over 5f, but nonetheless if you were the owner of the jolly and your horse was sufficiently versatile, which run style would you like the jockey to try and deploy? It’s still a no brainer when front running favourites are 1.67 times more likely to win compared to held up favourites.

As I did earlier with the 5f data I am going to split the 6f data down by number of runners, comparing races of 8 or 9 runners with races of 10 or more runners. Here are the relevant A/E value comparisons for each running style:

We see a similar pattern here with 10+ runner races strengthening the front-running bias as well as making it harder for hold up horses to be successful.

In general, it's very good to see the 5f and 6f figures correlate so well.

Chelmsford 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Up to 7f now, races at which distance start in a chute and cover the entire back straight before turning for home, and the run style splits for this distance:

Surprisingly perhaps, given the longer run to the turn, the front running bias at Chelmsford is actually stronger over 7f than it is at 6f. This is unusual as at most courses the bias to race leaders diminishes as the distance increases, especially when the distance to a bend is greater. This stronger front running bias is difficult to explain; it might be because the 7f races start from the chute and after the initial jostling for an early position the horses on the early speed are able to slow things down a little once meeting the main part of the course. Sectional timing data could possibly help here; but Chelmsford is the only UK racetrack at which an official timekeeper is not permitted to record such information.

Having said all that, in 2021 front runners have actually really struggled, winning just 1 of 22 races. This is something we need to keep an eye on, but I am guessing (hoping perhaps!) it is simply an anomaly. One stat that backs up my theory is that the placed figures for front runners stands at 44.4% in 2021, which correlates almost perfectly with the overall 6-year front running place percentage of 44.9%.

Over 5f and 6f we saw a stronger front running bias in fields of 10 or more runners. Over 7f there seems little difference. The front running A/E values are 1.45 and 1.40 for 8-9 runners and 10+ runners respectively.

As far as the draw is concerned front runners have again had success regardless of stall position. That said, when the front runner has come from the inside stall (draw 1) they have been particularly successful winning 12 of 41 starts (SR 29.27%).

Now a look at front runners in terms of their market rank. Let’s see if the same pattern emerges that we’ve seen at the two shorter distances:

A slight outlier with front runners who were 6^th favourite aside, the same general picture is painted. Front running favourites do extremely well and let us again review the performance of favourites in terms of their specific run style:

The message the numbers continue to hammer home is if you are backing the favourite in a Chelmsford sprint handicap, you really would like it to front run, and you certainly do not want it to be held up.

Chelmsford 1 Mile Run Style Bias

It is rare to see very strong front running biases at distances of a mile or more. Let’s see whether early leaders have an edge over Chelmsford's mile, which starts in a doglegged chute, and if so by how much:

As expected the front running bias is diminishing – you would still prefer to see your horse leading early than rather midfield or near the back, but run style becomes less of a determinant of success. I am not going to delve deeply into this trip because there is little utility, but I will share the record of the favourite combined with running style:

There is not the strong front running bias seen at other trips here but clearly favourites who lead or race close to the pace (prominent) early in the race are much better betting propositions than those who race mid pack or near/at the back. If you had happened to back all favourites that were held up or raced mid division you would have lost 30p in every £ wagered. If you had backed all favourites that raced prominently or led early you would have a tiny overall profit.

Chelmsford Racecourse Pace / Run Style Bias Conclusions

All in all Chelmsford has a strong run style bias across multiple distances with front runners having a clear edge. The 5f trip offers the strongest, closely followed by 7 furlongs and then 6f. This group as a collective can be used as a betting angle, and then overlaid with form considerations.

The bias is still evident over a mile but it is relatively modest.

Let me close with a graph that helps illustrate this neatly: it compares the A/E values for front runners / early leaders (4, blue bars) with those for hold up horses (1, orange bars) across the four distances. The disparity at the shorter trio of distances is stark, where over a mile the gap has been been all but closed.

- DR

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases

12 October 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

In this fourth and final part of my investigations into run style bias in National Hunt racing, I'll look at the effect of pace, or run style, in non-handicap chases, writes Dave Renham.

The previous three parts can be found below:

- Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles
- Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Hurdles
- Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases

Run style is all about the position a horse takes up early in a race. Here at geegeez there is a pace section which splits the early positions of horses into four groups. The groups are called Led, Prominent, Mid Division and Held Up. Each group is also assigned a numerical value starting at 4 for led, and then 3 for prominent, 2 for mid division and 1 for held up. Essentially, ‘led’ means horses that led the race early, also known as front runners; ‘prominent’ equates to horses which race close up behind the leaders; ‘mid division’ refers to those racing in the middle portion of the field; while ‘held up’ covers the cohort close to or right at the back of the pack.

For this piece I will look at races with seven or more runners – for the other articles I used eight as my cut off, but non-handicap chases too often have smaller field sizes so I wanted to increase the overall data set. Indeed, despite including seven-runner races, in recent seasons the average number of qualifying races per year has been less than 100. That's quite a difference from the 2009 season when there were 226 qualifying races. Note also that hunter chases have been included in this dataset.

Overall Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases

The first set of figures I wish to share with you are the overall run style stats for all National Hunt non-handicap chases in the UK from 1/1/09 to 31/7/21. These have been sourced from the excellent Geegeez Query Tool:

There is a definite advantage to early leaders / front runners here, with prominent racers notably second best. Horses that race mid division or are held up have remarkably similar records, both poor in relation to those campaigned more forwardly.

The strike rates for each run style section have stayed extremely consistent over the last 12 years or so, as the following bar charts illustrate. As with previous articles I have split the non-handicap chase data into two in order to compare 2009 to 2014 run style results with those for 2015 onwards. The bar chart below compares the win strike rates (SR%) over these time frames:

The difference in percentages is not significant when factoring in the reduced field sizes, so we can reasonably expect these run style patterns to continue in the coming season and over the coming years.

Onto the A/E values now and their comparison over the two time frames:

Again, there is very good correlation within the respective run style groupings.

The general pattern is clear, so let's drill down into different areas to see what differences, if any, there might be. With the data being consistent enough across the two halves of time I will analyse these areas over the whole period (Jan 1^st 2009 to July 31^st 2021).

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Distance

I have split all race distances into three groups, as I did in the previous instalments in this series: the groupings are 2m 1f or less, 2m 2f to 2m 6f, and 2m 7f or more.

2m 1f or less

The shorter distance races seem to accentuate the front running bias. In addition hold up horses perform more poorly than the 'all distance' group. The stronger front running bias can be appreciated more clearly perhaps by comparing SR%, A/E values and Impact Values (IV) between these 2m1f or less contests with races of 2m2f or more:

Let us now split the last two groupings up and you will see they are similar, still giving an edge to front runners:

2m2f to 2m 6f

2m 7f or more

One factor to keep in mind in non-handicap chases is that there can often be a significant ability bias; that is, the horses at the front are frequently a good bit better than some of those at the back.

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Course

Let's move on to specific racecourses. The problem when slicing data to the course level is that sample sizes are quite limited, especially when focusing on specific course and distance combinations.

Only twelve specific course and distances have hosted thirty or more qualifying races during the period of study. These are the strongest front running biases from that small group:

Chepstow 2m 7f or more

At Chepstow they tend to race over 3 miles exactly (officially, at least). Twice in the last 12 years they have raced over further. Here are the run style splits by strike rate:

Leaders seem to have enjoyed a huge edge at the Welsh venue. The A/E values back this up from a betting perspective:

Front runners enjoy an A/E value of over 2.00 (2.16) with all other run styles falling well below 1.00.

Exeter 2m 7f or more

At Exeter they race over 3 miles only. Here are the front running strike rates:

While not as strong as the Chepstow bias, it is still far more beneficial for a horse to be ‘on the front end’. Moreover, the prominent racer stats are strong, too, suggesting that this is not an easy C&D over which to come from off the pace. A/E values for the same now:

Again, we see good correlation, backing up previous observations. There is a less striking disparity between front of pack racers and later runners than at Chepstow's longer distance, but it is still comfortably the difference between long-term profit and the poor house.

Cheltenham 2m 4f and 2m 6f

Combining these two trips across the two courses (New and Old) at Cheltenham shows that that even with the fiercely competitive racing, and the individual track nuances, front runners remain the value:

As you might have come to expect the A/E values mirror the above run style split:

These are the three strongest course and distance run style biases I could find with big enough datasets. There will doubtless be others but some 'flyers' will need taking due to the small samples.

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Race Class

With such limited useful data at the course level, I decided to explore alternative areas. Class of race is something I have analysed before in relation to run style, but never in non-handicap chases. I decided to split the class of race into three groups, namely Classes 1 and 2, Classes 3 and 4, and finally Classes 5 and 6 (including the majority of hunter chases). Here are my findings for strike rates:

Now this is interesting. The orange bars, showing Class 3 and 4 run style results, clearly indicate at this class level the front running bias is at its strongest. Looking at the lowest class group (5 and 6) there is a front running edge but it is somewhat diminished. The highest Classes (1 and 2) have very similar figures for front runners and prominent racers. Those forward groups still have the edge on hold up horses but the bias is less potent than with the Class 3 and 4 group.

There are many ways one could interpret these findings. I am going suggest the following.

Firstly, in Class 1 and 2 races, these are often more competitive and hence it may be harder for front runners to repel later running challengers with a touch of quality. In Class 5 and 6 races, I surmise that front runners have less ability and, as such, are unable to sustain their pace throughout the whole race, thus fewer end up winning.

Finally, then, Class 3 and 4 races may then be the sweet spot, with horses that lead early having enough ability to see a race out while being faced with slightly lesser calibre rivals compared with Class 1 and 2 contests.

The above is, of course, just one interpretation and I may be wrong. Racing, and particularly analysing and betting on racing, is as much about opinions and theories as it is cold hard data.

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Field Size

My next port of call was to look at field size to see if smaller or bigger fields had any bearing on run style stats. I have again split the results up into three groups – races with 7 or 8 runners; those with 9 to 11 runners; and those of 12 or more runners.

For field size one needs to look at A/E or IV values rather than strike rates. Strike rates give an inaccurate comparison as seven-runner races are going to produce higher strike rates across the board than, say, twelve-runner races. I've used A/E as it offers an indication of market potential, higher numbers (above 1.0) leaning towards a suggestion of future profitability.

The bar chart below compares each section.

The data suggest that there may be less of an edge to front-runners in mid-sized fields (9 to 11). Unlike with the class data, I cannot offer a ready explanation for why this might be the case. I had expected smaller fields to do quite well in terms of front runners due to the limited competition numbers wise, but I had not expected bigger field races of 12 or more runners to be on a par with 7- or 8-runner races, however.

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Going

I wanted to study the going to see if faster or slower ground conditions made a difference. Here, I have split the data in two – firstly good going or firmer; secondly good to soft or softer. The bar chart shows the findings. The blue bars are good or firmer; the orange good to soft or softer:

One could argue there is a slightly stronger front running bias in softer conditions, as well as it seeming to be harder to win from the back or near the back (held up) when the turf is wet. However, the differences are relatively small so I'm not fully confident that this is the case.

Trainers showing a Front Running Bias in Non-Handicap Chases

Let's finish off by looking at trainers' front-running percentages. Below is a table highlighting the percentage of runners from a given trainer that front run. This type of information can be very useful when trying to work out which horse might lead early in a race, especially when there is little evidence in the form book. Here I have included those trainers with at least 50 runners under the conditions (7+ runner non-handicap chases, 2009 to end July 2021) :

There are some huge variations!

Donald Mc Cain’s runners lead over 39% of the time, just about four out of every ten runners; and Rebecca Curtis also seems to favour the front running option: not only do 31% of her horses take the early lead but 30% of those which lead have gone onto win their respective races.

Run Style Bias in National Hunt Racing Overall Summary

Looking at the four articles in this series as a whole, I hope readers can see the unarguable edge that front runners have in National Hunt racing. It is true that some front running biases are stronger than others, but in every article, thanks to a bit of extra digging, useful angles and stats have emerged to be deployed throughout the autumn, winter, spring and beyond.

If you have never personally researched run style angles or ideas, I really recommend doing so. Geegeez gives you the tools to unearth profitable pace/run style angles that very few other punters know about. And the great thing is, gathering and crunching data on Geegeez is a quick (and, dare I say it, fun!) process. Gone are the days of scrolling through formbooks and looking at one race at a time.

When you do find something interesting, or if you have any ideas you’d like me to research, please post them in the comments below.

- DR

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases

6 October 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

In my first two articles in this series revisiting run style bias in National Hunt racing I looked at run style bias in hurdle races, handicap and non-handicap; for this third piece I will perform a similar study on handicap chases.

What I mean by pace (or run style) is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong or two, which often defines its running preference. The first few seconds of any race see the jockeys manoeuvring their horses into the early position they wish them to take up. Sometimes, of course, the horse has other ideas (!) and you may see a horse being restrained as it wants to press forward but the jockey is keen to hold it up. Horses ‘fighting for their head’ often pay the price later in the race as they have used up too much energy fighting their jockey early.

geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources and the "pace" section is probably the one I personally use the most. The stats I am sharing with you here are based on the site’s pace / run style data. These data on Geegeez are split into four sections – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each section. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:

Led – horses that lead early, usually within the first furlong or so; or horses that dispute or fight for the early lead (e.g. "pressed leader"). The early leader is often referred to as the front runner;

Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);

Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point;

Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.

Overall Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases

As with the previous two articles - which you can read here and here - I have only looked at races with eight or more runners: this avoids many falsely run races which often occur when there are small fields. The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall run style stats all National Hunt handicap chases races in the UK from the beginning of 2009 to the end of July 2021, a large dataset of around 65,000 scored runners*:

*the run style of some horses is indeterminate from their in-running comments; such horses are excluded from the sample

As I mentioned last time, it is important to be aware that the number of runners in each run style group differs: prominent and hold up categories usually have more runners within their groups. 'Leaders' is the smallest group as usually you only get one early leader in this type of race, occasionally two when there is a battle for the early lead. Hence although raw strike rates have significance, it is more important to look at the Impact Values (IV) and the A/E index (Actual winners/Expected winners). More information on these IV and A/E metrics can be found here. If you're not familiar with them, I'd strongly encourage you to check out that article: it may just change the way you look at racing form!

Looking at the table we can see that the early leader goes on to win approximately one race in every six, which is a solid performance, and leaders clearly have an edge as a whole. Prominent racers have proved the next most successful group of runners. These figures are very similar to the hurdle results we saw previously. Hence, as with hurdle races, when betting on handicap chases we should be looking for horses that potentially will lead or at least race close up to the pace.

The run style bias has remained relatively consistent over the last dozen years or so as the following bar charts show. I have split the handicap chase data into two time periods in order to compare 2009 to 2014 results with those for 2015 onwards. The bar chart below compares the A/E values over these time frames:

There is excellent correlation across all four run style categories showing that the profitable edge to front runners has remained consistent over the years, perhaps even increasing in more recent years. Comparing strike rates give us a similar picture:

Before moving on I would like to share with you the front runner performance data in handicap chases (8+ runners) by year.

I have discussed in previous articles how being able to accurately predict the front runner(s) would be a license to print money – this illustrates the point perfectly – just look at the Win PL (and EW PL) column(s)! Unfortunately, as discussed in some of my previous run style articles, predicting the front runner is far from an exact science – however if one could find a method where you could correctly predict it around 65 to 70% of the time, that would almost certainly suffice for long term profitability. I am fairly certain this figure is impossible to achieve if trying to find the front runner of every single race; however, some races are easier to predict than others pace wise and if you concentrated on a select few races it may well be possible. Remember, these returns are at starting price. Better could be achieved using exchange prices.

Answers to me and Matt on a postcard, please, if you are able to achieve the pace predicting ‘holy grail’! [Though I suspect you'd keep that to yourself!]

Let us now start narrowing down the stats into different datasets to see whether the front running bias is stronger or weaker under more specific conditions. With the data being consistent across the years I will analyse these areas over the whole time period (January 1st 2009 to July 31^st 2021).

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases by Distance

Time to see if race distance affects the run style biases at all in handicap chases. I have split race distances into three groups as I did for the previous pieces: the groupings are 2m 1f or shorter; 2m 2f to 2m 6f; and, 2m 7f or further. A comparison of strike rates within each run style group first:

As we can see there is little discernible difference in the run style data by distance in terms of strike rate. Leaders enjoy a strong edge at all distances while hold up horses struggle regardless of the length of the contest.

Onto comparing the A/E values now:

An excellent correlation once more showing that, regardless of distance, front runners enjoy a strong (and profitable) edge.

Finally, a look impact values:

Again, unsurprisingly given the previous two charts, the Impact Values continue showing a similar linear pattern: the closer to the front of the race a horse is in the early strides, the more likely it is to win.

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases by Course

Next stop is to analyse which courses seem to have the strongest front running bias. I analysed the highest front running strike rates and the highest A/E values to come to a consensus. If a course made the top ten of either list it made it onto my final list. Overall 12 courses made one of the two the final lists, and those eight courses noted in blue bold font were in the top ten in both:

Let's look at some of these courses in more detail.

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at Doncaster

Doncaster has shown the strongest front running bias at the 2m 4f trip. The stats are quite remarkable and I had to triple check the data to make sure I was correct. There have been 28 races with the following run style splits:

As you can see 15 of the 28 races (54%) were won by horses that led or contested the lead early. Below is a pie chart showing the percentages of winners to races across each run style section.

What you also have to remember is that early leaders provided just 14% of the total runners. Hence, runners taking the early lead provided 54% of the winners from just 14% of the runners.

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at Hexham

Hexham’s figures for front runners are particularly strong at the shorter distances. They race at both 2 miles and 2 miles 1 furlong and the combined run style stats are as follows:

These figures indicate how vital it is to be on or close to the early pace at Hexham over these distances. 40 of the 47 races were won by early leaders or prominent racers which equates to 85% of all races. It is also worth noting that if the favourite or second favourite led early they went onto to win 13 races from just 22.

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at Perth

The majority of Perth handicap chase races are run over 2m4f or 3 miles. They do race over 2 miles and very occasionally at longer than 3 miles, but I want to focus in on the distances that have decent data sets. Over 2m4f there have been 52 qualifying races and over 3 miles there have been 73 races. The two charts below compare strike rates and A/E values at these two distances and as you can see the run style bias is virtually the same for each:

Perth, at these two distances, offer a strong front running bias and one that we should be able to continue to take advantage of in coming seasons.

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at Plumpton

The Sussex course of Plumpton favours front runners strongly at 2m1f and 2m4f, but at distances of 3m2f or more there is no edge at all.

The strike rate for front runners at the two shorter trips is more than double compared with the marathon handicap chases. A/E values show the same pattern with high figures of 1.91 and 1.87 for the shorter distances and just 0.88 for the longer trip.

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at other tracks

There are some courses and distances that do not favour front runners in handicap chases and here are a few stats which should steer you away from what you may have thought were potential betting opportunities:

Over 2m / 2m 1f Chepstow has seen just 1 win from the front from 30 races;
Over 2m2f to 2m6f Ffos Las has seen just 3 front runners prevail from 53 races;
At Musselburgh the strike rate for front runners is the lowest of all courses with a figure of just 8.8% over all distances (SR% of under 6% at distances of 3 miles or more);
At distances of 3 miles or more only four courses have seen more combined winners for horses that raced mid division or were held up, compared with combined winners for leaders / prominent racers – these were Aintree, Newcastle, Plumpton and Worcester.

Jockeys showing a Front Running Bias in Handicap Chases

Next I want to look quickly at jockeys and to specifically peer at those who go to the front more than the norm. Below is a table of the top ten jockeys in terms of percentage of front running rides compared with all rides. Hence if you had 1000 rides and went to front early in 200 of them your FR% would be 20%.

To give some context, the average figure for all jockeys stands at 13% in terms of leading early.

Charlie Deutsch not only likes to lead more than most, but his strike rate on such runners is impressive at 22.7% (A/E 1.52). Nico De Boinville and Harry Cobden are also worth mentioning as they are both very successful when taking the early lead.

De Boinville’s figures are as follows:

He is a jockey who seems to excel when close to or up with the pace. In contrast his record on horses that come from off the pace is poor.

Meanwhile, Harry Cobden’s figures are similarly impressive.

These numbers are, I think, quite enlightening.

Before moving away from jockeys I wanted to mention a stat that unfortunately is not relevant for today, but is one worth sharing, because to me it emphasises how good a jockey Tony McCoy was. When he was riding in handicap chases his win strike rate on horses that raced mid division / held up was just under 15%. The average figure for all jockeys whose runner had an early position in the back part of the pack stands at a measly 7%.

Trainers showing a Front Running Bias in Handicap Chases

The final section of today's article shows trainers' performance with front runners. Here are the trainers who have the best win strike rates from front runners – the chart below includes all trainers with a SR% in excess of 20%:

There are some big names here including Messrs. Henderson, Skelton, Hobbs and O’Neill. Seeing Jonjo O’Neill on the list is interesting because he rarely sends his runners out into an early lead as the pie chart below clearly illustrates:

I am not sure why O’Neill favours hold up tactics so much as he is more than twice as successful in strike rate terms with his front runners compared to his hold up horses. It might be that some owners prefer their runners patiently ridden...

It is clear that some other trainers have a greater understanding of the importance of early run style, as illustrated by the stats for Donald Mc Cain and Charlie Longsdon:

There are boundless possibilities in terms of researching micro-angles from run style in handicap chases, this article only scratching the surface to that end. Hopefully this article has again demonstrated that if you are not considering run style when making your selections, it might be a very good idea to start doing so. I also hope you are inspired to use the Query Tool on Geegeez to crunch some data and find your own pace / run style angles.

Thanks for reading,

- Dave

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdle Races

27 September 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

This is the second instalment in my latest series on run style bias in National Hunt racing. After analysing non-handicap hurdles last time, it is time to move onto handicap hurdle races.

Pace, or the running styles of horses, has long been an area of interest as any bias can potentially give us an edge when analysing a race. It is still an area that many punters ignore, and the longer that goes on the better as far as I am concerned!

Apologies for the regular readers of these pieces, but for new readers I must give a quick explanation of pace (or run style, which for our purposes are interchangeable) and how Geegeez can help you.

The first furlong or so of any race sees the jockeys try to manoeuvre their horses into the early position they wish them to adopt. Some horses get to the front and lead (referred to as front runners); some horses track the pace just behind the leader(s); other horses take up a more middle of the pack position, while the final group are held up near to, or at the back of the field. Geegeez racecards have a pace tab which is split neatly into four sections which match the positional descriptions above. So we have: Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets are the scores that are assigned to each run style, which for a mathematician like myself are really helpful as I can make easy comparisons between different runners, courses, trainers, jockeys, etc.

As with my previous research I have only looked at races with eight or more runners – this avoids many falsely run races which are more likely to occur in a small field scenario.

The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall run style dataset for all handicap hurdles races in the UK from 1/1/09 to 31/7/21. I have used the Geegeez Query Tool for all my number crunching – the pace section on Geegeez is another area on the site where you can gather individual course run style data from:

These figures are far more even than we saw in the non-handicap hurdle research. In non-handicap hurdles we saw front runners (early leaders) win roughly 18% of the time, form the smallest run style group. Here, though, leaders have won only around 12% of the time. That is to be expected given the generally more competitive nature of handicaps when set next to non-handicaps. Further, before we write off a leader / front running run style bias, it should be noted that the A/E figures still give front runners a positive market edge (1.06), as does an impact value (IV) of 1.35 - meaning early leaders are winning about a third more often than the overall population of handicap hurdlers.

That said, it is clear that the front running bias is weaker in handicap hurdles compared with non-handicap hurdles.

The success for each run style section has stayed extremely consistent over the last 12 years or so, as the following bar charts illustrate. I have split the handicap hurdle data into two in order to compare 2009 to 2014 results with those for 2015 onwards. The bar chart below compares the A/E values over these time frames:

That's an amazingly strong positive correlation across all four categories in market influence (A/E) terms.

Comparing the strike rates give us a similar picture of consistency:

Now it is time to start narrowing down the stats into different data sets to see whether any stronger edges emerge. With the data being consistent across the years I will review the following over the full time period (Jan 1^st 2009 to July 31^st 2021).

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles by Distance

Let us first look to see if race distance affects the strike rates or A/E values. I have split race distances into three parts as I did for the previous article: the groupings are again 2m 1f or less; 2m 2f to 2m 6f and 2m 7f or more. Here is a comparison of strike rates within each group:

These are a remarkably consistent set of figures for each run style group, regardless of distance.

Below are the Actual vs Expected (A/E) figures*.

* A reminder that you can read about all of the metrics we publish on geegeez.co.uk in this article

Once again, there is correlation across the board: perhaps slightly poorer front running stats for the longer distances, but that is probably not statistically significant. All early leader / front running A/E values are in excess of 1.00, which is noteworthy.

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles by Course

The second area to analyse is by racecourse.

Normally I like to concentrate on positive front running courses but to give readers more useful information I feel it is also worth sharing the course records where front runners perform relatively poorly. These tracks have all seen front running win strike rates of under 10% in the past 12 seasons, which may only partly be explained by field size:

We need to be wary about Cheltenham’s low figure as this is skewed by the fact that the average field size there has been a huge 16.5 runners. Hence, as front running tracks go I would liken it to Wetherby – below average, but nowhere near as poor as the raw strike rate performance implies.

Moving onto to the positive courses in terms of front running (early leaders) performance, and below is a look at those tracks with a handicap hurdle race front running win strike rate% greater than 13%:

14 courses make the list and I want to compare this list to the course list with the highest front running A/E values, with the hope (and expectation) of seeing most of the courses in both graphs:

As can be seen, 13 of the 14 courses appear in both graphs / lists – Leicester and Ayr are the ones to appear just once. This is extremely positive, implying the run style advantage to those who go on from the outset is still not fully factored into the market (insofar as it is predictable before the race begins - nobody said this was an exact science!), and it makes sense to look at a couple of these courses in more detail.

Bangor on Dee

Bangor-on-Dee tops the front running list in terms of strike rate and lies second when comparing A/E values. You may recall from the first article in this series that Bangor also topped the front running charts in non-handicap hurdles over 2m 1f or less. I did not look in detail at other distances at Bangor in that piece but I can reveal that the 2m4f trip in non-handicap hurdles saw a front running win strike rate of 32.6 % with a huge A/E value of 1.79. This add further confidence to the very positive looking handicap hurdle data here.

Let me break the Bangor handicap hurdle data down. I am going to be looking at percentage of winners from each run style section. Here is how the percentage split looks for all courses. This will help us when trying to appreciate the strength of any bias:

Over this trip the front running bias is moderate – the percentage figure for winning front runners is 16% compared to the all courses average figure of 15%. The one group that has performed above the norm here is the mid division group – 23% of the winners at Bangor compared with 18% for all courses.

Over two and a half miles, we see a big difference with front runners winning roughly a third of all races: 33% compared with the overall course average of 15% is a very significant finding and a very strong looking front running bias.

Onto the longest Bangor hurdle distance now of three miles:

Again, a decent enough front running bias over this trip. 22% of all winners have been front runners which gives them a solid edge of around 50% on the average front running strike rate at all courses across all distances. The A/E value for front runners over this trip is an attractive 1.66.

At Bangor therefore, potential front runners over 2m4f and beyond are definitely worth noting.

Ascot

I was quite surprised to see Ascot as giving front runners such a clear edge in handicap hurdles. I had perceived Ascot handicaps to be very competitive and thought front runners might actually struggle. However, at all distances Ascot’s front runners perform extremely well. Below are the two mile data:

23% of two mile Ascot handicap hurdle races were won by front runners – remember the average all courses figure stands at 15%. The A/E value is strong at 1.68.

I have lumped the intermediate 2m 4f and 2m 6f data together as they are similar distances and give us a bigger collective data set:

There is a stronger edge here with 27% of races won by front runners and fully 60% won by front runners or prominent racers. The front running A/E value is a huge 1.83.

Over the longest Ascot hurdle range of three miles, the figures are thus:

Again, there is a really solid front running edge (A/E 1.70) and, related, it seems harder for hold up horses to prevail (22% strike rate compared with the all courses average figure of 32%).

I have one final stat to share regarding Ascot handicap hurdles: fancied front runners, whose price was 6/1 or shorter, won 15 of 41 races. If you had been able to predict that these 41 horses would lead early, backing all of them would have returned you an impressive 88p in every £1 bet. Oh, for a crystal ball!

Other strong course / distance front running biases

Below is a list of other course / distance combinations where front runners have done especially well in recent years:

Sedgefield 3m 4f

The marathon distance of 3 miles 4 furlongs at Sedgefield would not necessarily be a track and trip where you’d expect handicap hurdling front runners to thrive. However, the stats suggest otherwise – the bar chart below compares the win strike rate percentage for each of the four run style categories:

Front runners have enjoyed a massive edge, backed up by a huge A/E figure of 2.26. It also can be seen that hold up horses have a miserable record showing that is extremely difficult to make up ground here over this distance. Most lower class marathon handicap hurdlers lack a gear change: who knew?!

Haydock 3m

Not quite as strong a bias as the Sedgefield one, but a significant advantage to the front again nonetheless:

Front runners with this kind of strike rate coupled with an A/E of 1.92 is not to be sniffed at!

Cartmel 2m 1f

The final course/distance combo to share graphically is Cartmel's 2m 1f win strike rate, which demonstrates another strong looking front running bias:

Front runners in this context have produced a very satisfactory A/E value of 1.63.

Sticking with Actual vs Expected, there are five other course and distance combinations whose A/E value for front runners is in excess of 1.50 – they are:

Catterick 2m

Ffos Las 2m

Newbury 2m and 2m 1f

Exeter 2m 1f

Musselburgh 2m 4f

Those are well worth noting, and may provide a starting point for your own Query Tool research should you feel so inclined.

Hold up horses

For fans of hold up horses, there is a handful of course and distance groupings where the late runner A/E sneaks above 1.00. The A/E values are in brackets in the table below:

In races at these tracks and over these distances, front runners do not enjoy the advantage, conceding that to hold up horses. For the record, the Lingfield Park data in each grouping is very small indeed so caution is advised.

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles: Summary

To conclude, front runners enjoy far less of an edge in handicap hurdle races when compared with non-handicap hurdles, but there are still a number of courses (and/or specific course/distance combinations) where we need to be aware of a possible edge.

Elsewhere, there is a smaller number of track/trip combinations that tend to favour hold up horses.

Knowing how a race may pan out from a running style perspective is always an important factor to consider, and the knowledge of any potential biases a significant bonus. Hopefully the information above, allied to specific race pace maps found on this website, will give you a leg up with your handicap hurdle betting.

- DR

Pace Bias in Non-Handicap Hurdle Races

20 September 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

With the evenings now sadly drawing in, many punters will soon begin to think about the upcoming National Hunt season, writes Dave Renham. So Matt and I felt it was the right time to revisit pace bias in National Hunt racing. In the past I have written several articles for Geegeez on the topic of pace and for this piece I am going to take an in depth look at non-handicap hurdle races.

I appreciate many of you reading this will have read some or all of my previous articles, but for new readers it is important to explain what pace in a race means and how we measure it. Pace in this context is connected with the running styles of the horses. When I look at pace bias my main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on.

geegeez.co.uk has an excellent pace analyser tool and the stats I am sharing with you in this article are based on that tool’s pace data. The data on Geegeez are split into four styles and accompanying points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The numbers in brackets are the pace scores assigned to each section.

For this article I have only looked at races with eight or more runners – this avoids falsely run races which often occur when there are small fields.

The first set of data contains the overall pace stats from all 8+ runner National Hunt non-handicaps in the UK from 1/1/09 to 31/7/21:

It is important to keep in mind that the number of runners in each pace group varies: there are far more runners in the prominent and hold up categories as you can see. 'Leaders' is the smallest group as usually you only get one early leader in this type of race, occasionally two when there is a contested early lead. Hence although raw strike rates have relevance, it is more important to look at Impact Values (IV) and the A/E index (Actual winners/Expected winners).

Leaders clearly have an edge as a whole, with prominent racers the next most successful. Therefore, as a general rule of thumb, in non-handicap hurdle races you want to be focusing on those horses that are the most likely to lead early (or at least race prominently and close to the front end).

When we have looked at draw biases on the flat we became aware that such biases can evolve and change over time. In terms of pace bias, though, I have always hoped (or assumed) that they are less likely to change much, if at all, over time. To check this theory out I decided to split the non-handicap data into two and compare 2009 – 2014 with 2015 onwards. The bar chart below compares the A/E values over these time frames:

Excellent correlation across all four pace categories so, because A/E is a measure of market performance, this gives increased confidence that the value in any pace biases is likely to replicated in the foreseeable future. Comparing the strike rates shows a similar level of consistency across the two time periods:

So we have a good starting point from which to start narrowing down the stats into different data sets to establish whether front running bias is stronger or weaker under more specific conditions. As the data seems consistent across the years I will analyse these areas over the whole time period (2009 to July 31^st 2021).

Impact of Run Style by Race Distance, Non-Handicap Hurdles

I always feel distance is the best place to start when drilling down into pace data. A look first at the shorter distances.

2 miles 1 furlong or less

These figures are similar to the overall stats for all distances, so let us review by course. The chart below compares A/E values for all courses (min 50 races) – courses with A/E values of 1.00 or bigger are shown:

Bangor On Dee has the highest front-running A/E value at 1.48 and when we break the overall course stats down, we can see other metrics which point to that extremely strong front running bias:

Not only does the front running edge strengthen, it is clear that hold up horses struggle even more than the norm. For the record, if you had been able to predict the front runner(s) in each race at Bangor you would have made an SP profit to tune of 38 pence in the £. If only it was that easy!

The next chart shows the courses with the lowest A/E values for front runners over this trip:

Doncaster racecourse has the poorest figures for front runners and the overall stats for the course are as follows:

I think what this shows is that the course and distance stats are definitely worth drilling down on. The difference between Bangor and Doncaster at this distance range is very significant.

Before moving distances I would like to share some stats around performance of "the favourite" based on their running style:

Again, this shows clearly the importance of pace and running style. It still bemuses me how certain trainers continue to hold up their runners, when surely it is generally worth pushing them up with or close to the pace.

2 miles 2 furlongs to 2 miles 6 furlongs

It is always difficult to group National Hunt distances ‘perfectly’ when analysing large data sets, but for this article I wanted to split the full gamut of race distances into three parts and this seemed like a sensible middle distance grouping.

Here are the pace data for all courses for all non-handicap hurdle races over the 2 mile 2 to 2 mile 6 trip:

The figures are similar to the shorter distances though possibly the front running bias hass very slightly diminished. In terms of courses, amazingly Bangor on Dee is top again from a front running bias perspective – there is unquestionably a marked advantage to those horses that lead early at Bangor.

I thought for this interim distance group I would investigate some run style trainer data. I wanted to see which trainers had been the most successful when sending their runners out into the early lead in non-handicap hurdle races of 2m 2f to 2m 6f.

To that end, below are two graphs – firstly, trainer performance with front runners in terms of win strike rate; and secondly, looking at their respective A/E values.

As you might expect there are a high proportion of trainers that appears in both charts. Nicky Henderson tops both lists but this does not mean he sends a huge proportion of his runners to the front early; it shows, however, that when he does they fare extremely well. For the record here is Henderson's breakdown by running / pace style over this distance block:

His front runners clearly do best in terms of win strike rate, A/E value and IV. It is interesting though that only 11% - one in nine - of Henderson's horses actually take the early lead. But nearly half of them win!

It does make me wonder if trainers are really aware of pace bias... Below is his 'pace pie chart' in terms of percentage of runners that demonstrate a particular pace or running style.

44% of his runners raced off the pace early which is far too large a number in my opinion.

2 miles 7 furlong or more

The third and final grouping are the longer distance non-handicap hurdle races, from just shy of three miles upwards.

There are far fewer longer races as can be seen, but the same pattern emerges. Front runners perform best with prominent runners next best.

Trainers by Run Style (All distances)

I have already touched upon trainers but thought it might be interesting to create some trainer pace figures. To create the trainer pace figures I have simply added up the Geegeez pace points for a particular trainer and divided it by the number of runners. The higher the average the more prominent the trainer tends to race his charges. I have created trainer pace figures which cover all distances in non-handicap hurdles. Here are the trainers with the highest averages:

Rebecca Curtis tops the list and clearly favours positioning her runners nearer the front than the back. Her 'pace pie chart' below demonstrates this even more clearly:

As you can see 25% of Curtis's runners take the early lead, while another nigh on 50% race prominently and close to the pace. Ms Curtis is a trainer who understands the importance of forward run styles. It should come as no surprise therefore that you would have made a profit backing all of her runners ‘blind’ during this time frame. For the record, 53 of Curtis's runners were held up, and only 4 won (SR 7.55%). Compare this to 23% and 21.83% win strike rates for her early leaders and prominent racers.

Let us now review Alan King’s pace pie chart as a comparison to Curtis.

His pace average stands at 1.99 with a measly 2% of his runners sent into an early lead. Overall losses for King have been significant especially with runners that raced mid division or near the back early.

I do believe that pace in a race is something which must be factored in to your betting. Pace biases vary from race type to race type, distance to distance, course to course, etc. However, if you are prepared to do some digging that other punters are not, you will give yourself a significant edge over the crowd.

This article has hopefully offered a good chunk of information to digest, but in reality I have barely scratched the surface. If you really want to profit from run style/pace then the Geegeez tools are there for you to test your own ideas and crunch pace data to your heart’s content.

- DR

Using Market Rank to Assess Trainer Performance

24 August 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

When it comes to horse race betting, the role of the trainer is of pivotal importance to a great many punters, writes Dave Renham.

That may simply be the trainer themselves, with no filters applied: just as some punters have favourite jockeys, many have favourite trainers and, equally, other trainers they tend to ignore. Trainer form at the course, trainer form over the past 14 days, trainer records with 2yos, the trainer / jockey combo are examples of slightly more refined potential ‘trainer weapons’ in a punter’s armoury.

Personally, I feel trainers and trainer stats have their place but for me they are far from the ‘be all and end all’. Having said that, I believe that digging a little deeper into trainer performance can be a useful exercise. Looking for an edge that most punters would be unaware of is always worth investigating!

A Different Approach to Assessing Trainer Form

In this article, then, I am attempting to evaluate trainer performance in a different way from the ‘norm’. The basic idea is to compare the odds rank of each trainer’s runners with their finishing positions. This is intended to offer a much broader perspective of trainer performance, rather than simply focusing on winners, strike rate and/or returns. I am hoping that we may find a few lesser known trainers whose horses tend to outrun their odds – an ‘over performance’ if you like.

The data I have collated covers three full seasons of UK flat racing (2018 to 2020) and I have focused solely on handicaps. I am using handicaps because they are generally a more consistent data set to use where runners have a theoretically more equal chance in the round.

As with any method there are potential flaws or issues that need to be discussed. Principally, the comparison of finishing position with odds position is going to hinder horses that start favourite as they will be unable to ‘over perform’. The best they can do is match their odds position by winning the race. Hence trainers who have had a good number of favourites will be at a disadvantage using this approach. Having said that, there are ways to try and balance the data as I will attempt to demonstrate later.

There are three possible outcomes in terms of position in the market compared to finishing position:

Expected result – eg a horse 3^rd in the betting rank finishes 3^rd, a horse 7^th in the betting rank finishes 7^th etc;
Positive result – eg a horse 5^th in the betting rank finishes 2^nd, a horse 9^th in the betting rank finishes 5^th etc;
Negative result - eg a horse 4^th in the betting rank finishes 6^th, a horse 2^nd in the betting rank finishes 4^th etc.

Trainer Performance

So let us look at trainer performance using these parameters. Firstly, here are the top 25 trainers in terms of positive results using this approach. The table shows the breakdown of terms of total runs, number of positive results, number of negative results and number of expected results. It also breaks these down into percentages – positive percentages, expected and positive percentages combined, and negative percentages:

All trainers have a ‘positive and expected combined’ percentage of at least 60%. Lisa Williamson tops the list with 61.12% of her runners outperforming their position in the odds market (82.54% positive / expected combined). However, her overall win strike rate is around 3% so although her runners tend to run above expectations she is not a trainer that we can easily exploit. Indeed, most of the trainers in this list have relatively modest overall win strike rates, but I would say if you fancy one of their runners, you can at least expect it to run well and more likely than not to run better than its price suggests.

In order to try and find a group of trainers that we may be able to profit from, it makes sense to look at a more focused type of runner nearer the head of the market. To that end, I narrowed the search to horses that were not favourite but were priced from 4/1 to 12/1. The theory is that these runners will go closer to winning if they outperform their odds position. It also eliminates favourites who ultimately can only match their market rank, not exceed it:

Brett Johnson, who is second in the list, has made an SP profit within this price bracket of 18p in the £. His runners have hit the frame an impressive 42% of the time. Indeed, several of the trainers in this table made a profit to SP and they are shown in a bar chart below. It shows their win strike rate% in blue and their percentage profit in orange. They are ordered with the most profitable starting from the left:

For the record, four other trainers would have made a profit betting to Betfair SP – they were Christine Dunnett, Antony Brittain, Grace Harris and Linda Perratt.

Trainer Performance: Comparison Values

Another way to compare finishing position with market position is to calculate what I will call a ‘Comparison’ Value. In order to explain clearly what I mean, let me show you how to calculate this figure by using a simple example.

We start by looking at the difference between the market position and the finishing position. Let us imagine trainer ‘A’ has had 10 runners with the following results:

So ten races and we then add up the difference column. This gives us a total of 12. To get our ‘Comparison’ Value we then divide this total difference by the total number of races. So in this example we have 12 divided by 10. This gives us a ‘Comparison Value’ of 1.20. In other words, on average the runners from this hypothetical trainer have finished 1.2 places higher than their odds rank suggested they should.

Clearly trainers can achieve positive or negative Comparison Values depending on their overall performance. I have calculated these figures for all trainers over this three year period – again I have ignored any favourites for the same reason as discussed earlier in the article.

Below are the trainers who have achieved a figure of 1.00 or greater.

The figures are slightly skewed due to the fact that most of these trainers primarily run less fancied horses. It therefore makes it easier for them to outperform their odds rank over time. Thus it again makes sense to use this ‘comparison’ method closer to the head of the market, by deploying our 4/1 to 12/1 price bracket (and again excluding favourites). This creates a more level playing field.

At this point the figures for all trainers drop markedly and only three have managed a positive Comparison Value – Michael Attwater, Derek Shaw and Mike Smith (R Michael Smith). However, here are the top 30 trainers within this price bracket in terms of highest Comparison Values:

I do feel these trainers are ones to keep on the right side of with runners that are priced around the 4/1 to 12/1 mark in handicaps. Not only would I look to exploit them for occasional straight win bets, I would look closely at each way options (doubles and trebles) as well as placepot options. For any spread bettors out there, an unconventional way of evaluating trainers and their likely performance has definite potential. Maybe one of the ideas mentioned here could provide the genesis of that sought after edge.

Summary

No method, idea, or rating is fool proof. Ideas I have discussed in this article certainly come into that category. However, in order to try and stay ahead of the game, it is worth our while thinking ‘outside the box’. Going against the crowd often pays dividends as you are more likely to obtain value for your selection, if the masses aren’t backing it too.

There are countless ways to analyse data: I’m not saying what I have done here is perfect, but it is a different slant and was interesting and enlightening from my personal perspective. I hope you’ve taken something from it as well.

When Trainers Run Two in the Same Race

6 July 2021/in Dave Renham, Horse Racing Blog/by Dave Renham

A dilemma that faces punters from time to time is when a trainer saddles two or more runners in the same race, writes Dave Renham. Do you take the obvious option and back the shortest-priced runner? Or is there value in backing the outsider of the pair? Whichever approach you take, it’s likely that many of you can recall times when you backed the wrong one!

The scope of this article is restricted to looking at trainers’ performance when they have exactly two runners in the same race. The data has been taken from UK flat races (turf and all weather) from January 1^st 2014 to June 28^th 2021. I have restricted it to two runners purely for ease of data compilation, as well as the fact that not many trainers run three or more horses in the same race on a regular basis (Aiden O’Brien the obvious exception).

All profit and loss is calculated to Industry Starting Price. For the shorter priced horse of the pair I will call this the “first string”, the bigger priced runner will be known as the “second string”.

Let us first look at trainers that have had at two or more runners in the same race on at least 100 occasions (hence at least 200 runners overall). There have been 49 trainers that qualify against that stipulation:

Below are the combined results of all runners for each trainer (i.e. both first and second string):

Not surprisingly, just three of the 49 trainers show a profit when looking at both strings as a whole. It is hardly likely that backing both runners for every trainer in every race is going to make a profit long term. But let's see what happens when we break the data down and compare strike rates between first and second string runners. I have done this in four graphs in order to show the comparison pictorially and, hopefully, more clearly.

My approach was to add up the winners and work out which percentage of all the winners came from the trainer’s first string (shorter priced runners) and what percentage came from the second. For Charlie Appleby, for example, he has had 85 winners of which 61 were first string runners (71.8%); 24 winners came from second string runners (28.2%). The blue bar accounts for first string runners, the orange bar for second string.

Overall, when combining all 49 trainers, roughly 75% of the winners have come from their first string entries, thus 25% from their second string. I would guess these figures would be roughly what we might have expected.

As can be seen, however, there is a wide fluctuation when analysing the performance of individual trainers. John Bridger, for instance, has had no winners from his second string runners, whereas Scott Dixon has very even stats with 17 first string winners (56.7%) compared to 13 second string winners (43.3%).

Trainers to note with first string runners

Eight trainers have made a blind profit to SP with their favoured runner of the pair, while a couple have essentially broken even. The table below gives their individual stats ordered by win profit / loss.

Of course, we have to be careful when looking at relatively ‘raw’ data like this: two trainers have made a profit purely due to one big priced winner each - Mick Appleby's figures are skewed due to an 80/1 winner, while Gary Moore had a 50/1 winner. It is also worth noting that Dean Ivory had two winners at 50/1 which make up most of his £123 profit (though he was still profitable even allowing for that brace of bullseyes).

Let's now dig a little deeper into some individual trainers.

John & Thady Gosden

The Team Gosden partnership, whose stats include Gosden Senior on his own previously, have broken even with their first string runners from a very decent sample size. I thought it would be worthwhile to see if breaking the data down further may reveal a potentially profitable angle or two.

With that in mind, let's first look at race type – the bar chart below compares strike rate (in blue) and ROI% (profit/loss) in orange.

As can be seen, there were crippling returns in handicaps from a modest strike rate (relatively) of around 13%.

The Clarehaven yard enjoyed similar strike rates, at around double the handicap clip, in maidens and other non-handicaps (e.g. Group, Listed, Stakes races etc), excluding novice races; similar returns, too, with a tiny loss in maidens and a tiny profit in non-handicaps.

Far and away the best figures for Gosden’s first string runners have come in Novice races, where they've notched a strike rate of 33% with strong returns of 14p in the £ at SP.

The Novice race stats can be improved slightly if we focus on the front end of the market. Gosden’s first string runners that have started 4/1 or shorter have provided 35 winners from 97 (SR 36.1%) for a profit of £20.19 (ROI 20.8%).

Roger Varian

There are some interesting data to share also regarding Roger Varian. His first string runners have an excellent record when sent off at single figure odds. Under these circumstances Varian’s runners have provided 27 winners from 98 runners (SR 27.6%) for a healthy profit to SP of £36.82 (ROI +37.6%). This can be improved further if we ignore handicaps, with 23 of the 75 runners winning (SR 30.7%) for an overall profit of £38.19 (ROI +50.9%).

If we focus on horses 10/1 or bigger Varian has managed just one win from 39 attempts.

A final side note for Varian is that he has struggled at Ascot with just 1 success from 23 in this context doubly-represented context.

Richard Fahey

The record of Richard Fahey with his first string runners is also interesting. Overall his figures look relatively modest – 177 winners from 1305 runners (SR 13.6%) for a loss of £265.74 (ROI -20.4%). However, when we break it down we see some big differences:

Virtually all of Fahey’s losses have occurred in handicap races. In maidens and novice events he has broken even, and from a small sample of runners in low grade sellers and claimers made a tidy profit.

Breaking the maiden data down further, focusing on Fahey runners priced 8/1 or shorter has produced 29 winners from 103 runners (SR 28.2%) for a healthy profit of £46.49 (ROI +45.1%).

Worst First String Returns

Before moving onto second strings, it is worth sharing the stats of the trainers with the worst overall returns for the first strings:

I was surprised to see Sir Michael Stoute languishing in this list; he some very poor figures indeed. Clearly the first strings of the above trainers are worth avoiding in most, if not all, circumstances.

Trainers to Note with Second String Runners

To finish off let's briefly look at trainers' second string performances. As you would expect strike rates are much lower and profits are generally hard to come by. Indeed the highest strike rate in our sample of 49 trainers is just 9.9% for Charlie Appleby, with the next best a mere 7.3% for the Gosden stable.

Messrs. Burke, Dascombe, Ivory, Dixon, Hammond and Beckett were the only trainers to make a profit on their runners, and only because of a huge priced winner here or there which skews their figures.

Some high profile trainers have very poor records with their second string runners as the line graph below shows. The blue line represents their individual strike rate and the orange line shows their return on investment (ROI%). All trainers in the graph have shown losses in excess of 33p in the £; Jamie Osborne stands the worst on that front with an 85p loss for every £1 bet. Ouch!

Trainer statistics as we know come in many forms – course stats, favourite stats, horses on debut, etc. The ones I have shared with you in this article are less well advertised. Hopefully you will find them useful either pinpointing possible bets or, just as importantly, helping to avoid poor value ones.

- Dave Renham

Punting Angles Using Sires & Damsires: Part 4

20 May 2021/in Dave Renham, Horse Racing Blog/by Dave Renham

Looking for Punting Angles using Sires / Damsires (Article 4)

This is the fourth in a series of articles looking at sires and damdires. In this article I will dig deeper into damsires and their performances, writes Dave Renham.

Article 1 is here

Article 2 is here

Article 3 is here

Damsires are the fathers of dams (mothers) of the respective horses: the maternal grandfather is another way to understand it.

The data for this piece, as with the previous three, covers 1^st January 2011 through to 31^st December 2020 – ten years – and all profits/losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price. I am using a longer time frame because certain sires now coming to the end of their stud career will still be influential as a damsire for several more years to come.

In my previous article on damsires (article 3 linked to above) I looked at some general data to begin with and then focused on a few key players in that context to try and find useful angles, both positive and negative. For the first part of this study, I am going to focus on 2yo race data.

Races involving 2yos are the types of race where pedigree research is probably used the most and can still present one punter with an edge over another. The reason punters use pedigree data in 2yo races is that 2yos have little or no form to go on, and hence they need an alternative direction or starting point.

Last time, I shared the top 25 damsires in terms of strike rate in 2yo races. This time I am going extend the list to all damsires who have had a least 200 runs (in 2yo races) – 125 damsires to be precise!

As can be seen, the strike rate varies from a top performing 18%+ to below 6% which is a significant range; hence I felt despite the ‘enormity’ of the table it was worth sharing it all. Too often when sharing horse racing data, writers focus solely on the better-performing components rather than giving a broader overall context of the subject.

Arguably one of the hardest types of race to unpick is an early season 2yo contest where most or all of the runners are yet to race. As punters we have a few pointers such as looking at the trainers and, in some of the more high profile 2yo races, there will be useful press snippets giving some quotes and possible gallops reports. Some will also look at foaling dates, how much the horse cost as a yearling, and whether it has any big future race entries. However, pedigree analysis (analysing sire and damsire data) is an integral weapon in the armoury when trying to unravel the 2yo puzzle.

So before jumping further into the 2yo damsire data let's compare the overall strike rates of 2yos on debut, on their second start, and on their third start.

As can be seen, 2yos making their debut win just under 8% of the time (7.8%), whereas this increases to just under 13% (12.9%) on their second career run, before edging down a little to 11.9% on their third career start. This means juvenile runners are roughly 1.66 times more likely to win on their second start compared with their debut. That is a stat worth keeping in mind.

2yo on debut

Time to drill down into the 2yo debut data in terms of individual damsires.

Any damsire with a strike rate considerably above the baseline figure of 7.8% is worth noting from a positive perspective; likewise any damsire with a strike rate well below the baseline is worth noting from a negative standpoint. Here are 2yo debut stats for all damsires in the time period (100 runs minimum):

Street Cry as a Damsire

Street Cry heads the list in terms of strike rate with an impressive debut winning percentage of 17.5%. The table below compares Street Cry’s damsire strike rate for 2yo debut runs through to a 4^th start or more (as a 2yo).

This profile is very unusual with a much better debut record than second career run record. As you can also see, 3^rd career start figures are particularly impressive with Street Cry grand-progeny scoring once from every four runs.

Reverting to 2yo debuts for horses that have Street Cry as their damsire, it should be noted they win more than twice as often over sprint trips compared with races of 7f or more:

A 26% hit rate over 5f and 6f has unsurprisingly produced a tidy profit of 28p in the £.

Pivotal as a Damsire

Switching to Pivotal we have a really good number of debut races to analyse – nearly 600 in fact. Pivotal proves to be very consistent as a damsire with his 2yo debutants.

There is no significant edge in any of three areas shown above.

Pivotal progeny on debut seem to act on any going but they may have a slight preference for softer turf. On soft or heavy they have won around 16.5% of the time; on good to soft through to firm they have won just under 12% of the time.

I noted previously that normally 2yo strike rate improves considerably from first to second career start. Street Cry bucked the trend and below are all of the damsires from our long list to have produced a higher debut win strike rate compared to their descendants' second 2yo run.

This is a small but exclusive list and, I feel, one punters should be aware of.

Of course at the other end of the scale it is useful to see which damsires produce a much higher strike rate on their second 2yo start.

These 18 damsires combined would have only lost 4p in the £ at SP if you had backed every single juvenile runner on their second career start. That amounts to over 2100 runners; I estimate that using Best Odds Guaranteed / Early Prices / the exchanges you would have made a profit of between 10p and 30p in the £.

2yos – second career start

We have seen some comparisons above between debut performance and second career starts. Let us next consider the impact of damsire in terms of two-year-olds' second career race. Below are the top 25 damsires in terms of strike rate on their second run as a 2yo (80 runs or more to qualify).

There are some very healthy strike rates and, in some cases, a decent profit to SP combined with reassuring A/E figures. The other end of the spectrum looks like this:

In general I would suggest that bettors should be wary of backing horses who have damsires from this list on their second 2yo start.

2yos – third career start

We have already seen that 2yos on their third career start win at a slightly lower strike rate than on their second start, so here are the damsires whose SR% on their third career start is at least 1.5 times higher than their SR% on their second start. I have also included their debut SR%:

These are a handful of damsires to note when their progeny have their third career start as a 2yo. Looking at the likes of Montjeu, Azamour and High Chapparal - all Group 1 winners at a mile and a half - it is probable that their grandchildren may be benefiting from stretching out to more suitable trips.

Individual damsires in 2yo races

To close, let us focus on ten individual damsires with associated potentially useful angles:

Acclamation – similar SR% at 5, 6 and 7f (all around the 13% mark); this drops to 5.7% at distances of a mile or more. Male runners have been more than twice as successful as female runners (16.2% versus 7.4%). Excellent strike rate of over 16% for 2yos that are racing for the fourth or subsequent times.

Averti – females (fillies) have scored 15.1% of the time compared with 9.9% for male runners. Blind profit made on 2yo second career starts of nearly 35p in the £ (SR 17.5%).

Bertolini – poor overall SR% at 7%; just 1 win from 47 on soft or heavy going; just 1 win from 56 at 1 mile or more; in 2yo maidens the strike rate drops below 4%.

Cadeaux Genereux – much better over sprint trips (5-6f) with a SR% of 14.2%; at longer trips this drops to under 8%. Slightly better on the turf to all weather but not significant; likewise males slightly outperform females but again not too significant.

Cape Cross – male runners have made a blind profit and scored 14.5% of the time compared with females at 10.9%. Higher strike rate over sprint trips (5-6f) at 14.2%; at longer trips this drops to 10.5%. 2yos that have previously raced and finished 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th last time out have produced an impressive SR% of 23.1% from over 250 runners. They have secured a healthy profit to SP of 26p in the £.

Dansili – 2yos with Dansili as the damsire have made a blind profit of 21p in the £ on the all weather thanks to an excellent strike rate of 16.1%. 5 of the 6 all weather tracks have overall SR%s in excess of 15%, the exception being Wolverhampton whose figure stands at just under 10%. Seems effective at all distances.

Dubawi – males have a higher SR% than females but beware of horses that have been gelded as they have won less than 5% of races they have contested. It looks best to avoid 2yos contesting 5f contests with just 7 wins from 111 (SR 6.3%); compare this to races of 7f or more where the strike rate improves to 14.9%, with a close to break-even situation (a loss of just 4p in the £ to SP).

Exceed and Excel – the strongest stat here relates to going. On good or firmer ground the SR% has been 12.6%; on good to soft or softer this drops to under 8%. One other interesting stat is that when his runners race at the same distance as LTO the strike rate hits an impressive 17.6% (compared with the overall 2yo SR% of 11.8).

Giant's Causeway – backing all 2yos would have secured a profit which is unusual. Performs best over 5 to 7f (SR 17.9%); compare this with 1 mile or more (SR 12.4%). Looks slightly more effective on firmer ground – on good or firmer the strike rate stands at 17.7%; on good to soft or softer this drops to 13%.

Royal Applause – consistent across the board. Effective on turf and all weather and on all types of going (possibly marginally better on soft/heavy). The Hannon stable have a particularly impressive record with an overall strike rate of 21.1% (23 winners from 108 runners). Over 5f they had 10 winners from 32 producing a profit to SP of £31.53 (ROI +98.5%). It seems they understand how to get the best out of Royal applause progeny.

This article has hopefully highlighted some useful stats and angles in relation to the influence of damsires on juvenile flat performers. I also hope I have planted the seeds that encourage readers to do further research in this area. The Geegeez Query Tool includes a 'damsire' research parameter.

- DR

Punting Angles Using Sires & Damsires: Part 2

31 March 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

Last month I started a new series of articles looking at sires and damsires, writes Dave Renham. To recap, sires are the fathers of the respective horses and can have a significant influence on their offspring; damsires are the maternal grandfathers and can also bestow certain characteristics on their daughter's progeny.

In the first article, we saw that certain sires had strong traits; for example Casamento’s runners are better suited to longer distances with his offspring twice as likely to win at 11 furlongs or further than at sprint trips of five to six furlongs.

In this second article my focus will continue to be sires and I will be sharing some additional insights looking for positive or negative angles. I will also be concentrating on two-year-old races where sire stats can be extremely useful as we have limited, or often no, horse form to go on.

This piece is not completely ‘time sensitive’ because there are some sires who have had runners in ten or more seasons and I want to analyse individuals in more detail if I can.

Record of sires in 2yo races

Below is a table of the top 20 sires of 2yos, in terms of strike rate, between 2016 and 2020 in the UK (minimum 200 runs):

Sharmadal is the only sire in profit and, sadly, he passed away last year. He should have a crop of 2yos for the 2021 season and possibly a small one for 2022. However, the first sire I wish to look at in more depth is Kodiac.

Kodiac

Kodiac, a son of Danehill, was a decent handicapper as a racehorse and went to stud in 2007 with his first runners hitting the racecourse in 2010. He holds the record for the most 2yo wins in one season and his progeny include Campanelle, Best Solution and Hello Youmzain.

I want to share Kodiac's record with juveniles in the UK going back to his first crop in 2010, firstly breaking it down by individual years:

Looking at the yearly strike rates, Kodiac has been relatively consistent with rates ranging from 10% to just over 16%. Losses overall are around 14p in the £ but, using best odds guaranteed or the exchanges would get this loss down to probably about 2-3p in the £. I now want to break the data down by level of experience (2010-2020):

Kodiac’s strike rate with his runners on debut is solid at nearly 13%. The average strike rate (SR%) on debut for all sires stands at just 7.74%, hence Kodiac progeny seem fairly well primed and ready for their first outing on a racecourse.

Horses normally improve considerably between that first career run (debut) and their second start. Kodiac’s runners are no exception, and have won over 17% of races on their second starts as a 2yo and actually made a blind profit, which is unusual. Comparing again with all sires it should be noted that backing all sires blind on their second start would lose you around 26p in the £.

My next port of call was to look at trainer records and compare their 2yo performances with Kodiac-bred runners. I have only included trainers who have had 45 or more runs:

There is a real mix here, ranging from John Gosden's 29.17% to Tim Easterby at just 2.04%. However, Clive Cox is the most interesting one for me – his overall strike rate of 1 win in 4 (25%) is impressive and he has had 16 different 2yos sired by Kodiac, 12 of which won at least once as a 2yo. That equates to 75% of these horses winning a 2yo race. Compare this to Charles Hills who has had 23 different 2yos sired by Kodiac, but only six of those proved successful in their first season (26%). To give you more context, 44.26% of Kodiac 2yos have won at least one race as a 2yo, well above the Hills figure of 26% but well below the 75% Cox figure.

We noted when looking at the yearly breakdowns that Kodiac juveniles are consistent. Indeed this consistency can be seen to best effect when examining performance on different underfoot conditions. The graph below shows the strike rate on specific goings:

The percentages range from 13% to 14.89%. So if you are backing a Kodiac two-year-old, it seems you do not need to worry about whether it will be effective on the going.

Kingman

I now want to move onto a new sire on the block, Kingman. Kingman was a four-time Group 1 winner when racing, winning seven of his eight career races. His only defeat came in the 2014 2000 Guineas when he finished second. It perhaps comes as no surprise, then, that as a sire he has started with a bit of bang. His stud fee in 2015 was £55,000 and, six years later, that fee has nearly tripled to £150,000.

He tops the 2016 to 2020 2yo strike rates (see first table above) and I want to examine his juvenile progeny data in more detail. While it is still relatively early days, and he does not have the large data set of a Kodiac, there are still some trends that seem to have emerged already.

Let us look first at distance. Kingman 2yos have so far displayed a distance bias to 7f more as the graph shows:

There also seems a bias in terms of male runners outperforming female runners at this early stage: we are working with quite a small data set (164 runs for males and 150 runs for females) which is why I have included each way (win and placed) stats, too, in the graph below.

The win figures correlate extremely well with the each way stats – at least so far.

One area where the male dominance can be seen is when we compare the record of male horses making their 2yo debut compared to females. Males seem much more mature and ready to run from the ‘get go’. There have been 72 colts or geldings sired by Kingman making their debut at two thus far, of which 20 have won (SR 27.78%) showing a profit to SP of £54.94 (ROI +76.31%). In contrast the 65 fillies making their racecourse debut as two-year-olds recorded just six wins (SR 9.23%) for a hefty SP loss of £43.33 (ROI -66.66%). The each way SR%s correlate once again with males winning/placing 64% of the time whereas the percentage for females winning/placing is under 25%.

I now want to move away from individual sires back to general observations.

Comparing 2yo debut run to 2yo second career start

When looking at Kodiac earlier in the piece, I broke his progeny performance data down by career start number. Now I am going to expand this review to all sires that appeared in the initial table by comparing strike rates with their progeny on debuts against their second runs (as a juvenile). For this I have looked at data going back to 2010:

In the final column I have divided the 2^nd run strike rate by the debut run strike rate to give us a type of Impact Value. It is not a ‘true’ IV so I’ll call it a Comparison Strike Rate (CSR). The higher this figure the more improvement the runners show on their second run compared to their debut.

As we can see by looking at that final column there is quite a difference in the CSR figures in some of the sires. Frankel’s runners for example have a CSR figure of just 1.10 – of course this is partly due to his exceptional strike rate of over 21% on debut.

The sires of most interest in this table are probably those with CSR figures above 2.00, namely Acclamation, Clodovil, Due Diligence, Gutaifan, Mehmas, Muhaarar, Requinto and Toronado. You can really expect their runners to improve considerably from their juvenile debut run to their next start as a 2yo, an angle which should help in establishing value and potentially throwing up some decent betting opportunities.

Comparing 2yo turf runs with 2yo all weather runs

In the next table I wanted to compare turf strike rate with all weather strike rate. Again I have produced a C.S.R. figure by dividing the turf SR% by the all weather SR%.

A CSR figure of 1.00 indicates the sire is equally effective on both surfaces. Figures well above 1.00 give the edge to turf performance; figures below 1.00 suggest progeny of those sires are more effective on all weather surfaces, purely in terms of juvenile win strike rate.

Looking at either end of the spectrum will isolate differences which are significant enough to be potentially interested in. For example, Frankel’s progeny at two are clearly far better on turf than on the all weather, scoring nearly twice as often on the former. There is a logic here in that such expensive acquisitions will rarely be tried on artificial footing until they have suggested that they fare poorly on grass. Likewise, New Approach seems to be a strong influence for turf over sand. But the reverse is true when we look to the bottom of the table, at Toronado and Sea The Stars: their juvenile offspring are currently showing a clear preference to all weather surfaces.

Finally I wanted to look at some sires you might wish to consider avoiding in terms of 2yos, generally at least. Below is a list of those sires whose strike rate in the last 5 years (2016-2020) has been below 8%. Clearly it is as important to be aware of negative angles as it is of potentially positive ones.

As the first two articles in this series have hopefully shown, sire research can unearth some very useful stats and angles. Geegeez will assist any curious subscriber via both the Profiler and Query Tool.

Good luck!

- DR

Punting Angles using Sires & Damsires: Part 1

25 March 2021/in Dave Renham/by Dave Renham

After spending the past three years on geegeez almost exclusively looking at pace angles, I am branching out into a different ‘sphere’ today, namely sires / damsires, writes Dave Renham. The plan is to write a series of articles on this topic in an attempt to give geegeez punters an edge over the general betting fraternity.

First off, a quick 101: sires are the fathers of the respective horses, and they can have a significant influence on their offspring. Damsires are the fathers of the respective mothers of the horse – maternal grandfather, if you will – and these, too, can have a bearing, though it is generally considered that this further generation influence is less strong. In this series of articles we will examine whether this is true or not and, if it is, where we ought to focus our attention.

The cost of buying a racehorse can vary greatly, from thousands of pounds to millions. Age, equine conformation (physicality) and, most importantly, pedigree (horses’ lineage / ancestry) influence the price. Normally the better the pedigree the more expensive the horse.

Let me share a human example where lineage / ancestry seems to be having a strong influence. The young American golf sisters, Nelly and Jessica Korda, are taking the LPGA tour by storm. Their father is Petr Korda, a Grand Slam tennis champion in the 90s, while their mother is Regina Rajchrtova, a top 30 tennis player back in the same era. Good ‘stock’ certainly counts there.

Returning to racing, and for this first article I will be concentrating solely on sires. The data is taken from the period 1^st January 2016 through to 31^st December 2020 (five full years) and all profit/loss has been calculated to Industry Starting Price. For the vast majority of the article I have used the Geegeez Query Tool.

Firstly, let us look at the sires with the highest strike rates in all races during the period of study (minimum 400 runs). I am only including sires that are likely to have a significant number of runners this season:

As the table clearly shows, backing sires ‘blind’ is not a great option (duh). Just one sire, Farrh, has made a profit to SP with all his runners in the past five full seasons. Obviously we should be able to beat Starting Price returns in the real world, but it does show that we have to dig a lot deeper when analysing sires. And all those of us who like to get our hands dirty in the data say amen to that!

In order to try and profit from sire data, one sound strategy is to look at individual sires in more detail to try and spot patterns, strengths and weaknesses. I am going to look at a few in that context where I have unearthed some hopefully useful angles.

Teofilo

Teofilo, a son of Galileo, won at Group 1 level twice as a 2yo and was unbeaten in that first season racing (5 from 5). Unfortunately, he got injured and never raced again. However, he has been successful as a sire and has passed on some strong traits of which we should be aware.

Unsurprisingly, perhaps, he has a good record with 2yo runners, boasting a strike rate of 16.84% during the study period. However, we can break the data down further to give us interesting comparisons, as the graph below shows:

As can be seen, male juveniles comfortably outperform females, runners win more often at 7f or more than over shorter distances, and Teofilo-sired runners much prefer the turf to the sand. Combining those factors - male 2yos over 7f or more on the turf (2016-2020) - saw 65 runners qualify with 17 winning (SR 26.15%) for a very healthy profit of £66.53 (ROI +102.35).

No Nay Never

No Nay Never is a relatively new kid on the block with 2021 being only his fourth season as a sire. As a racehorse, No Nay Never was a Group 1 winning sprinter and hence it may come as no surprise that his progeny are showing a liking for shorter distances.

Horses sired by No Nay Never win about 3 times more often over 5-6f than they do when racing over a mile or further.

Casamento

Casamento proved as a two-year-old in 2010 he was one of the best colts of his generation when finishing second in the Group 1 National Stakes before going onto win the Group 2Beresford Stakes and finally in that year the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy over a mile. As a sire his runners are typically far better suited to longer distances: his runners are twice as likely to win at 1 mile 3 furlongs or more, as compared to sprint trips of 5f to 6f. The graph below shows this neatly:

Sadly, we'll not be seeing many more of Casamento's progeny as he passed away in February 2020.

Big Bad Bob

The sire Big Bad Bob caught my eye due to some relatively unusual findings. I noticed that his record as a sire was superior when racing left-handed compared to when racing right-handed. Famously Desert Orchid was far better going right-handed than left, and we often hear trainers allude to a directional preference, so I know certain horses do have this type of trait; maybe some sires do, too. Essentially, Big Bad Bob’s strike rate when racing left-handed (around at least one bend in a race) is 1.5 times greater than when racing right-handed.

In addition to this I analysed all of his runners in more detail and found that of those that raced left-handed, 41% of them managed to win at least one race going in that direction. For all his runners that raced right handed only 19% of these managed to win a race going that way round. Now these stats may have happened by chance, but 41% versus 19% is too big a gap for me to believe that it was entirely down to luck.

Big Bad Bob also displays a distance bias similar to Casamento. The bias is not quite as strong towards longer distances but it is still significant. Horses over racing at 1m 1f or more have by far the best record.

Swiss Spirit

Swiss Spirit is a relatively new sire with 2017 seeing his first runners on the racecourse. He was a decent sprinter when he raced winning at Group 3 level and twice finishing runner up in Group 2 events. It is interesting to note, though, that as a sire his sprinters have performed no better than his 7f to 1 mile runners. In fact, in strike rate terms they have been slightly inferior. However, there is one huge deviation that is extremely interesting. That is his record with male runners compared to female runners. I think this is best illustrated in a table rather than a graph:

As you can see there is a significant disparity in strike rates and naturally this impacts the profit/loss returns. Backing all male runners blind would have lost you just under 16p in the £ to SP compared with 59p in the £ if you backed all of his female runners. The A/E values show a strong correlation, too.

Dawn Approach

Dawn Approach was a top notch miler during his career and as a 3yo won the 2000 Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes. Unbeaten as a 2yo he ended up winning 8 of his 12 career starts.

Like Swiss Spirit, Dawn Approach sired his first crop of runners to race in 2017. Also like Swiss Spirit his male runners have to date outperformed his female runners by nearly double in terms of strike rate (male win SR% 11.76%; female win SR% 6.56%). However, it is the pace angle I find most interesting.

Below is a graph comparing the win strike rate of Dawn Approach against the strike rate of all sires when looking at different run styles: front runners (leaders); horses that track the pace (prominent); and horses that race mid-division or towards the back (Mid Div / Held Up).

The progeny of Dawn Approach have been very successful when taking an early lead, but really struggle when racing from off the pace (Mid Div / Held Up). To illustrate this further I have looked at all the horses that have taken an early lead and examined their record in more detail. 65 horses have led early in at least one race and 25 of them have gone on to win at least once (38.46%). Compare this to all horses that have showed the running style of racing off the pace. Of these horses, 112 displayed this running style at least once and only 13 managed to win when racing in this way (11.60%).

Horses do have preferred running styles due to a variety of factors (some don’t like crowding for example, while others seem to thrive when racing in a pack), and hence it could make sense that certain pace traits may be passed on by individual sires.

I hope this piece has whetted your appetite for this new phase of my geegeez research sharing. In my second article I will reveal another collection of interesting data and stats. In the meantime, if you're interested in doing your own digging, both the geegeez Query Tool and the Profiler tab within the racecards offer a treasure trove of insights and are very easy to use.

- DR

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Wolverhampton 5 furlong Run Style Bias

Wolverhampton 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Wolverhampton 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Wolverhampton Racecourse Run Style Bias Conclusions

Kempton 5 furlong Run Style Bias

Kempton 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Kempton 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Kempton 1 Mile Run Style Bias

Kempton Run Style Bias at 1m2f and 1m3f

Kempton Run Style Bias: Conclusions

Run Style Analysis: All races

Run Style Analysis: Chases

Run Style Analysis: Hurdle races

Run Style Analysis: Full Summary

Lingfield 5 furlong Run Style Bias

Handicaps

Non-Handicaps

Lingfield 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Lingfield 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Lingfield 1 mile Run Style Bias

Lingfield 1m2f+ Run Style Bias

Lingfield All Weather Run Style Bias Conclusions

Newcastle 5 furlong Run Style Bias

Newcastle 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Newcastle 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Newcastle 1 mile Run Style Bias

Newcastle 1 mile 2 furlongs Run Style Bias

Newcastle 1 mile 4 furlongs Run Style Bias

Newcastle Run Style Bias Conclusions

Chelmsford 5 furlong Run Style Bias

Chelmsford 6 furlong Run Style Bias

Chelmsford 7 furlong Run Style Bias

Chelmsford 1 Mile Run Style Bias

Chelmsford Racecourse Pace / Run Style Bias Conclusions

Overall Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Distance

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Course

Chepstow 2m 7f or more

Exeter 2m 7f or more

Cheltenham 2m 4f and 2m 6f

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Race Class

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Field Size

Run Style Bias in Non-Handicap Chases by Going

Trainers showing a Front Running Bias in Non-Handicap Chases

Run Style Bias in National Hunt Racing Overall Summary

Overall Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases by Distance

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases by Course

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at Doncaster

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at Hexham

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at Plumpton

Run Style Bias in Handicap Chases at other tracks

Jockeys showing a Front Running Bias in Handicap Chases

Trainers showing a Front Running Bias in Handicap Chases

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles by Distance

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles by Course

Bangor on Dee

Ascot

Other strong course / distance front running biases

Sedgefield 3m 4f

Haydock 3m

Cartmel 2m 1f

Hold up horses

Run Style Bias in Handicap Hurdles: Summary

Impact of Run Style by Race Distance, Non-Handicap Hurdles

2 miles 1 furlong or less

2 miles 2 furlongs to 2 miles 6 furlongs

2 miles 7 furlong or more

Trainers by Run Style (All distances)

A Different Approach to Assessing Trainer Form

Trainer Performance

Trainer Performance: Comparison Values

Summary

Trainers to note with first string runners

John & Thady Gosden

Roger Varian

Richard Fahey

Worst First String Returns

Trainers to Note with Second String Runners