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Royal Ascot 2021: Day 2 Preview, Tips

14 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 2 Preview, Tips

Wednesday, day 2, and another heptagon of sides to take or, in plain English, seven races to decode. Just seven sides to take in the feature Group 1, the Prince of Wales's Stakes at 4.20 also, but they promise a superb race. That main course is for later, before then we've some delicious-looking amuse bouches through which to work...

2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo)

Juvenile fillies over the minimum kick us off and, this being Royal Ascot, Wesley has a live one at the top of the 22-runner list. She's called Twilight Gleaming and she'll be ridden by the brilliant Puerto Rican jockey John Velazquez. Second on the main (dirt) track at Keeneland on debut, she was an easy seven length winner when switched to the turf course at Belmont next time. You can watch that race here. It is hard to say what she beat, but the time was good even allowing for her being eased down.

As with most Wes runners she's fast from the gate, leading early at Belmont through an opening quarter in 22.22 seconds (they do have 'run up' so that's not from a standing start). She'll get the stiff Ascot five, will probably lead early, and will take some pegging back. Ward is 4-from-13 in this, and has amassed a further three placed runners.

Aidan O'Brien meanwhile is 0-for-15 - Aidan O'fer as my US pal DiLo likes to call him. O'Brien has saddled five placed fillies but, since Sophisticat (who?) was placed in 2001, his record reads 0000842909. And yet, here's Yet, a beautifully-bred daughter of War Front exiting a Dundalk maiden and currently second favourite. Only two horses have emerged from that contest, beaten off the board three times between them. In Yet's defence, she and the second (the reopposing Orinoco River) were seven clear of the rest and the second has not raced since either. We've kind of seen this show before, though, haven't we?

More credible of the Irish, but also more exposed, might be Quick Suzy, representing predominantly jumping trainer, Gavin Cromwell. She was touched off in a Naas Group 3 over six furlongs (soft) last time, when leading but not quite getting home. The winner was a 50/1 poke, the third was almost six lengths away and the 2/7 favourite was fourth. She'd previously won a six furlong Curragh maiden (yielding) by almost six lengths and she arguably brings the best established form to the party. But she's yet to race on fast ground. The drop back to a stiff five might be fine if she can handle the firmness; she won't probably have as much improvement as some of her rivals but they still have to show they can get to her level let alone beyond it.

Nymphadora, trained by Andrew Balding, emerged from arguably the hottest maiden of the year so far. That Newmarket race won by Desert Dreamer has thrown nine UK winners from 21 subsequent starters:

Nymphadora's part in upholding the form was snugly winning the Listed Marygate Stakes at York. The Marygate has been the springboard to Queen Mary success for four fleet fillies.

That maiden's winner, Desert Dreamer, lines up here having won again since, over six furlongs (good, Newmarket). The form is working out well enough with second placed Dashing Rat beaten only by subsequent Woodcote winner Oscula, and third placed General Panic winning a novice next time. Oisin Murphy will ride and I think his filly's chance is understated in the market.

There is a second US raider in the line up, and Frankie steers her. She's called Artos and is trained by George Arnold. Beaten far enough on debut the daughter of Kodiac got the verdict in a tight picture on her sole subsequent spin. That was over five and a half furlongs at Churchill (firm), so she ought to see this out. Whether she's good enough is another matter entirely.

Nick Bradley Racing are one of the owners of the hour, and they've done brilliantly with their buying. Mas Poder was a 22/1 first time starter when only two lengths fourth to Nymphadora in the Marygate and, having run green there, she might narrow the gap with her debut vanquisher.

There are others who deserve their place here, too.

Queen Mary Stakes tips

I imagine Wesley's filly, Gleaming Twilight, will go very close here, and 7/2 is probably fair enough. She might be an in running back to lay for those into such things as it will be a bit of a shock if she doesn't lead. After her I'm inclined to swing at prices in the form of 14/1 Desert Dreamer and 20/1 Mas Poder. There are plenty of extra places if you shop around and want to roll each way.

3.05 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)

A three-year-old Group 2 over the St Leger trip these days, and a strong trial for that final Classic as a consequence. Aidan O'Brien has won half of the last 14 renewals, so no 'ofer' gags here. And this is a race that perennially goes to a fancied runner, 19 of the last 24 winners returning at 6/1 or shorter.

That gives a shortlist of one: Wordsworth, the Aidan O'Brien-trained 11/4 favourite. Second in two of his three runs either side of a big field ten furlong Curragh maiden win, he was last spotted straining to within a neck of the fairly well-touted Sir Lucan. He has progression and proven stamina on his side, and the fact Ryan Moore has opted for this one over Arturo Toscanini implies he's stable first string (though we all know that supposedly lesser runners from the yard usurp their better-fancied barn mates frequently).

Arturo for his part was a never nearer second of nine in a ten furlong Group 3 at the Curragh, which suggests this sort of range should enable him to conduct himself (geddit?!) meaningfully.

I mentioned Joseph's Royal Ascot blank yesterday and, while that might already be consigned to the dustbin of history, it remains a factor in my considerations as I write this (Monday afternoon) with regards to Ruling, a thrice-raced maiden albeit most recently when staying on over a mile and a half in a Leopardstown Listed.

Perhaps the biggest threat from the home team will be progressive handicapper Dancing King, a well-related but cheaply-bought-as-a-yearling (ah, hyphens) son of Free Eagle trained by the former Mr Queen's Vase, Mark Johnston. He, like Aidan, has seven wins in the race to his name; but unlike Aidan the last of them arrived in 2014. Since then, eight of Johnston's nine Vase runners have been double digit odds; he's still managed a 20/1 fourth and a 16/1 third.

Dancing King is battle hardened, progressive in small field handicaps and stays well. That might not be quite enough against some regally-bred and thoroughly unexposed rivals, but he'll give a run for pennies.

Possible pace map looks as follows, though plenty of these could run to a different style being so lightly raced:

Queen's Vase tips

I've been burned opposing APOB hotpots in this a number of times in the past decade, and I've finally got the message... in time for him to clunk no doubt! But it's easy to see the case for Wordsworth finishing "lonely as a cloud" in front of his field. 11/4 is all right based on trainer records.

3.40 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies & mares)

The more seasoned ladies step to the fore in this Group 2 the favourite for which is Lady Bowthorpe. That looks spot on after Lady B, trained by William Jarvis, ran closest to none other than Palace Pier in the G1 Lockinge a month ago. Prior to that she'd won a nine furlong Group 2 at Newmarket, a fair leap from the Class 4 all weather handicap she took this time last year. That's the best piece of form in the field.

That is, arguably, unless you take a literal perspective on the Middleton Stakes where Queen Power bolted up by eight lengths. With a couple of the beaten mares there running second in Group 3's since, there is at least some substance to the literal case. But that was ten furlongs. She'd previously been second to Lady Bowthorpe in that nine furlong Dahlia Stakes, and was third in this last year - beaten three lengths - when seeming to lack the miler's gear change. It feels like this might be the wrong slot for her though I fully appreciate that Sir Michael Stoute has been at this game a minute or two longer than me.

Perhaps the most interesting contender is the wildly progressive Double Or Bubble. She's had just four races, with only one horse finishing in front of her and that on debut. The Chris Wall charge was a four length scorer in a Class 2 handicap last time over seven furlongs, though beaten horses from there are 0 from 19 since the race which dents the form somewhat. There's plenty of stamina on the dam's side (by Dalakhani) so she ought to stay the mile.

Onassis won the Sandringham last season at 33/1 and also bagged a heavy ground Listed race two back. She's a likeable and versatile filly but doesn't look good enough. Lavender's Blue has little to find with Lady Bowthorpe and Queen Power on Dahlia form - she was a half length third - which makes her ostensibly interesting at double figure odds. She's run plenty of good races in defeat but was thumped in this last season.

Champers Elysees was a huge flag bearer for the emergence of Johnny Murtagh as a trainer last season, winning the Group 1 Matron Stakes, but she's dipped below that high water mark in a trio of fourth placed efforts since. A return to a sounder surface could see her improve on recent efforts and she's a square price.

And one other at hail mary odds is Indie Angel, trained by the Gosdens and ridden by Frankie Dettori. Surely that already means she can't go off at her current quote of 20/1. She wasn't far back in the Dahlia and the fact she's pitched in here might be a bit of a clue.

The Duke Of Cambridge Instant Expert looks like this - remember, green is good, amber OK, red not so hot (and don't totally believe small sample sizes)

Duke Of Cambridge Stakes tips

This revolves around Lady Bowthorpe, who laid to rest any suspicions that she could only operate at Newmarket when giving Palace Pier a race in Group 1 company at Newbury last time. She's not the wrong price at 2/1 but nor is there much margin for error. No, I'll watch her win while backing a 'value alternative'! Most appealing in that context is 14/1 Champers Elysees, a Group 1 winner over a mile just four starts ago. She has to defy the G1 penalty but gives only two pounds to the most credible of her rivals, and five to the rest. If the faster ground wakes her up, she's a big player. If...

4.20 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)

A cracker for the day's highlight, the Group 1 Prince Of Wales.

Love has been backed in the early wagering skirmishes as though she's as least as good as last season. We have a lot in our lives - a lot of horses in our lives - so it's worth a quick refresher as to Love's 2020. It was only three races but, like, WoW!

First up, she sizzled more than four clear of her 14 rivals in the 1000 Guineas. Then she romped nine - NINE - clear of the rest in the Oaks (seems like small beer when next to Snowfall's 16 length destruction in the same race this year!). And finally, in the Yorkshire Oaks, she cruised to a five length verdict. Nothing got even remotely close to her.

But. But... now she goes against the boys and she rocks up to the racetrack for the first time in exactly 300 days. In a hot renewal of the Prince Of Wales's Stakes. She will need to be on song.

Last year's winner, by almost four lengths, Lord North defends having won the Group 1 Dubai Turf in his previous run. He was beaten a few times in between and overcame a shallower field than this a year ago. It's not good general practice to oppose Frankie and Johnny (and Thady) but I'm against at the price.

Aidan O'Brien saddles Armory as well as Love. Short enough at around 3/1 he won the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester and the Group 3 Royal Whip at the Curragh either side of his best effort, a two length third in the Irish Champion Stakes. He was a 66/1 chance that day, a price in line with his form either side in the context of that championship race, and I don't really believe it. Again, you pays your money and you takes your chances.

Audarya won Group 1's in France and America last autumn, and this being her seasonal debut implies a similar campaign awaits. I love James Fanshawe and I love this mare; but I don't think she'll be quite ready this time.

I'm struggling to make a case for the 114-rated My Oberon who would look badly handicapped off that mark if eligible for such races. He was whacked in the Lockinge, was whacked in a Redcar Listed as 11/8 fav, and was second in a pair of Group 3's last year. He did win a four-runner Group 3 on good ground when trying a trip beyond a mile for the first time and that must be the key to his case: the step up to ten furlongs is credible on pedigree (Dubawi out of a Sea The Stars mare). If so, they've taken long enough to get there and are hardly pitching in half-cocked in this top rank Group 1. Again, connections are greatly respected but this looks a tough task.

Similar comments apply to Sangarius. And yet I've had a small each way ante post (three places, burglary). Sir Michael Stoute is justly renowned for taking his time to allow horses to achieve their optimum performance levels as they mature, and this chap looks off that production line for all that he showed some precocity at two. As a juvenile he won twice before a midfield effort in the Dewhurst, finishing the season on an official rating of 106. At three he had just two starts, winning the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes over course and distance on the second of them (having prepped on the Sandown Brigadier Gerard card), and ended the season rated 113. Last year brought a further brace of efforts, again winning on the latter occasion, this time in Listed grade. End of season rating 114.

He still has seven or eight pounds to find with the pick of his rivals, but in each of the last two years he's progressed to win. He was three lengths behind Armory on debut this term (remember, that one is 3/1 here) and four lengths behind Euchen Glen at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes last time in a mad (seriously, watch it) prep for this. Today is his big day and, if Sir Michael has it right, he might get into the frame especially if granted the easy lead he sought but did not get at Sandown. Colin Keane is a very interesting jockey booking, though may be Juddmonte's retained rider in Ireland (I probably should know that, apols).

Desert Encounter completes the seven and is a great globe-trotting money-spinner. the now nine-year-old gelding has never won above Group 3 level in Britain and yet has amassed £1.1m in total prize money. Well played! He's been second a fair bit in the past year but he won't be second here. Nor first. Wish I owned ten per cent of him: the days they've had around the world. Lovely stuff.

The pace map, based on UK and Irish form only, looks thus:

Prince Of Wales's Stakes tips

A few imponderables in what could be a cracker. If LOVE is on her A game, she ought to win. She's top on ratings after her sex allowance is accounted for and, unless the three-year-old fillies were a rotten lot last year - not impossible - she could be a fine sight. But she's been off a good while and this is deep. Lord North is well suited to the matter at hand though I'm not completely convinced of his credentials; similar comments apply to Armory except that I'm not at all convinced of his credentials (cue easy win).

I suspect Audarya will have her days later in the year, I don't like My Oberon though expect the trip will eke a little more, and Desert Encounter has no secrets from any of us. That leaves Sangarius as a bet without the first two if you can find it. At time of writing one firm is 22/1 without Lord North, and I'd take anything 8/1 and up without LN and Love, especially if someone offers each way 1/4 1-2.

5.00 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

The mother of all head scratchers is the Royal Hunt Cup, a straight mile handicap with thirty runners, and three reserves in case any of the main field try to escape and make life easier for punters! Trends time...

Horses priced above 20/1 are 5/402 in the last 24 years (thanks to horseracebase.com) and -£261 to a £1 level stake. I'll go with the 20/1 or shorter group, who are 19/292 (-£38, so still some work to do. Duh!)

No horse has shouldered more than 9-05 to victory during that time. That's numbers saddle cloth numbers 1 to 5 semi-arbitrarily excluded.

The draw is seemingly against the lowest numbers though I don't have data to bear that out. However, perception is reality and if trainers and jockeys decide low is unfavoured they're likely to race middle to high. Self-fulfilling prophecy thereafter for low, forfeiting ground.

Indeed, in 16+ runner handicaps over a mile on good or quicker, either flank has been beneficial. More material by far is that midfield and held up horses have significantly out-performed those presented more forwardly.

So I want a late runner.

Ignoring those already eliminated, the pace map looks a little like this:

The favourite currently is Finest Sound, a Varian/Atzeni entry and respected very much as a consequence. Stall nine is fine and his form - notably when second in the straight mile Britannia last year (soft) - looks progressive and relevant. There isn't a ton of pace on quick ground, so perhaps a prominent to midfield run style will give his rider options depending on how fast they go in front of him. Obvious player.

But the one I'm most interested in is Irish Admiral. Trap six might put a few off but it shouldn't; so too might a fifth place finish last time, that too is a red herring: the Epsom handicap he contested then was a muddling affair (first three home 12/1, 12/1, 20/1) where the speed held sway, the winner going gate to wire. Unless Maydanny gets a total freebie - possible - this should play to later runners and Irish Admiral protected his mark in failing to land a blow on the Downs. This will be just his sixth lifetime run so there is sure to be more to come.

The Hambleton Handicap at York has been a good pointer to the Hunt Cup historically, and a few from there appear here. They include the very unlucky Brunch, whose second places this season have been in two of the North's most prestigious mile handicaps, the Hambleton and the Lincoln. Up three pounds for a neck defeat last time doesn't help, but this strong travelling hold up type has everything in his favour for another 'in the mix' effort.

Of those in behind, What's The Story (too much weight?) and Ouzo (not good enough?) are overlooked but Matthew Flinders enters calculations. He wasn't persisted with when his York chance had gone and remains on the same mark. Drawn bang in the middle, he'll be looking for gaps from the two pole; Oisin Murphy is better than most at threading the needle in these types of race.

The Irish don't run too many in the Royal Hunt Cup but they're two from seven in the last five years. They have three entered this year: Pepperoni Pete and Bowerman look poorly handicapped but Lafayette is interesting for Noel Meade. Consistent in big field mile handicaps on soft ground he won his maiden on good to firm and has been in the frame in eight of ten starts following his debut.

Royal Hunt Cup tips

Wide open. Obviously. Lots of bookies offering place concessions which is a solid alternative to splitting stakes win only in a race like this. I'll take a small win bet on Finest Sound as insurance and then try a few at bigger prices each way with many places. Irish Admiral at 12/1 and Lafayette at 20/1 are compelling in the latter scenario, as is 16/1 Brunch who will surely be within spitting distance of the first past the post. So many more to consider and that's why they're all big prices!

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)

A lesser juvenile race, at least in the context of Royal Ascot juvenile races, and often a big priced winner - 100/1 Flashman's Papers anyone?

Those with two or fewer runs to date are the place to focus, and top four last time out. That leaves plenty but it eliminates some, which is a start!

In the last five years, Aidan O'Brien, Charlie Appleby and John Gosden have won this, with horses priced at 7/1, 12/1 and 20/1. Clearly they all stepped up on what they'd shown theretofore. Wesley Ward, meanwhile, won this twice between 2009 and 2014, but has gone 506000098 since then, all bar one returning 10/1 or shorter. Small samples, yes, but perhaps a reason for caution.

WW's Ruthin is favoured, the once-raced daughter of Ribchester a runaway trap to line victor at Keeneland. Like many Ward Royal Ascot entries, she is electric from the stalls and looks set to take the field along from her middle draw in 12. After that, I haven't really got much of a clue.

Horses exiting the National Stakes at Sandown, the Hillary Needler and Two Year Old Trophy at Beverley, and Epsom's Woodcote have been fair portents of good runs. That brings in Tipperary Sunset and, to a far lesser degree, Guilded, both from Beverley; Bond Chairman and Chipotle from Sandown; and Dusky Prince and Flaming Rib from Epsom.

Cutting to the chase, I'm quite interested in Tipperary Sunset who was game on the front and is now two from two. He's made all on softish turf both spins to date and this will be quicker ground and a quicker tempo; but he looks quite relaxed in his races so probably doesn't need the lead. The Two Year Old Trophy he won was run about six lengths faster than the Hillary Needler in which Guilded was second: she'll have to improve a ton to beat him.

But this is too hard for me.

Windsor Castle Stakes tips

I'll try Tipperary Sunset each way at 12/1 or so with extra places aforethought.

6.10 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 4yo+)

A new handicap on the round course for older fillies and mares. Easy enough, eh? Sheesh.

There could be a lot of pace here and, on the round course, that should make for a strung out field and my guess is advantage midfielders.

Roger Varian has won three Royal Ascot handicaps in the last two years from ten runners. What is more remarkable is that eight of the ten have made the frame. With that in mind, the inside drawn midfield runner Waliyak gets a check. Closer inspection reveals that, although she is making her seasonal bow, she was second in the (straight mile) Sandringham last season and has run over ten furlongs with credit since. She's not appeared to be quite getting home in truly run mile and a quarter races, so if this is the fast pace I expect it to be it could set up for her. Surprising that she's as big as 16/1 for all that she might prefer a bit more juice in the turf.

Lights On and Dreamloper are closely matched on their straight mile 1-2 last time here: there was a short head between them that day, three lengths back to the rest. Both raced handily there, a repeat of which would give them first run on presumed fading leaders but may also leave them susceptible to a mid-pack closer. That said, Lights On's draw in 17 of 18 means Ryan Moore may be forced to ride for luck whereas Oisin Murphy sends Dreamloper from eight which gives him options.

The unpronounceable Dalanijujo is fairly wide but quickened up well at Yarmouth last time off quite fast early fractions. She'd been racing at ten furlongs previously and the drop back to a well-run mile obviously suited; this will be that and William Buick is a jockey positive on the round course.

Naturally, lots of others with prospects.

Kensington Palace Stakes tips

I think Waliyak is a heck of a price if she handles the ground. Roger Varian's recent Royal Ascot handicap record is unsustainably good but this mare has draw, run style, profile and a fine young rider in her corner. I've backed her at 16/1 which is widely available at time of writing. And I've also had a go at Dalanijujo (I don't have to be able to say it to bet her!) each way at the same price. If they don't go fast early, another will probably win. But I'm expecting this big field on the round course will be a fun, but potentially frustrating, wagering watch.

And that's how Day 2 looks from this corner. Sam is taking over for our Thursday (Day 3) preview, and I'm back on Friday. As ever, it's every person for themselves on Saturday.

Good luck

Matt

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 1 Preview, Tips

14 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Royal Ascot 2021: Day 1 Preview, Tips

More normal than the 2020 edition, but still not quite normal: that's the best way to view Royal Ascot 2021, a mid- to post-pandemic shot in the arm for British racing and its legion fans. Although no more than 12,000 of those supporters will be able to attend each day, the rest of us will be well served on the box courtesy of ITV and AtTheRaces.

The new normal for Royal Ascot is a quintet of seven race cards, thus 30 becomes 35 through the week. Mostly these additions are handicaps, some of which we saw last year and very few of which ought to meaningfully dilute the quality on show.

As an over-arching principle with Royal Ascot, we are trying to project forwards: most of the runners will have not yet reached the ceiling of their ability and gauging who might progress the most - as well as quantifying what has already been achieved on the basis of scant formbook evidence - is the order of the week. In other words, it's tricky old stuff.

Brevity has not historically been my strong point when previewing big meetings but I shall attempt to keep these daily (Tuesday to Friday, help yourself on Saturday) outlines to 4000 words if possible. Best get to it then...

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group 1, 4yo+)

A return to the traditional start time and a reinstatement of the traditional curtain-raiser, the Queen Anne Stakes, a straight track mile Group 1 that has produced a couple of surprise results recently but is normally a procession of sorts for a well-fancied thoroughbred.

Accidental Agent in 2018 and, to a lesser extent, Lord Glitters in 2019 were hard to come by - for me at least; either side, though, were 14 victors sent off 15/2 or shorter stretching back to 2005's Royal Ascot at York.

It looks chalky again this time around, as the magnificent miler Palace Pier heads the lists. The four-year-old son of Kingman has won seven of his eight career starts, the last five of which at this trip, and on a range of going from all weather to soft to good/firm. Most of his top class efforts have been with some ease in the ground, a point which is one of only a couple of slight niggles in a very strong overall profile.

The other is Ascot's straight mile. True, Palace Pier won on a stiff straight mile at Newcastle, but that was in a 0-100 handicap. And he beat a high class field in the Prix Jacques Le Marois on Deauville's slightly easier straight piste where he benefited from a very well judged ride from Frankie. Sectionals provided by McLloyd reveal he slowed markedly in the final furlong there, but less so than his rivals. And he was beaten up the Ascot straight mile in the QEII on Champions Day on very soft ground.

On ratings, he's five pounds clear of his nearest rival, Order Of Australia. That one recorded his career top in the Breeders' Cup Mile, around Keeneland's tight inner oval and when sent off at 40/1. It was rattling fast there, which it might be here, but this is a straight mile and OOA doesn't have another piece of form within half a stone of that BC Mile effort.

Lope Y Fernandez is eight pounds inferior to the Pier on his best: on my book he's probably a seven furlong Group 2 horse. This testing mile, which I believe rides more like nine furlongs, should be beyond his stamina range.

Because of the tightness of the favourite and vincibility of his closest market rivals, it does look an each way, and especially a 'without the favourite' sort of race. In the latter context, I offer Lord Glitters. Winner in 2019 having been second in 2018, the passage of time is against him a touch but he was a Group 1 winner in Dubai as recently as March. Never nearer than his final position of fourth on domestic seasonal debut in the G1 Lockinge, he'll have been primed for this (as will most of the rest, in truth) and 8/1 without Palace Pier looks a bet.

Queen Anne Stakes tips

For all that I've tried to make a case against PALACE PIER, he looks very hard to beat. And I expect he'll win. This is a great 'without the favourite' race because I'm not sold on the virtue of either of the O'Brien entries and it's 20/1 bar the aforementioned trio in the main market. In that context, Lord Glitters looks a very credible each way without the fav bet at 8/1.

3.05 Coventry Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

This is a race that perfectly epitomises the guesswork required around a sizable field of nascent racers. It, like most Royal Ascot contests, doesn't especially play to my profiling strengths, though there are always 'ins' one way or another.

The market is headed by Wesley Ward's US raider, Kaufymaker. I can't find a tape of her race but it must be significant that WW pitches her in against the colts rather than going Albany or Queen Mary. There are some youtube videos of her working at Keeneland, and she is a typically big Ward juvenile: she won't be fazed by the colts. Whether she's good enough, who knows? Trainer pointers suggest she's good and Ward is quoted as saying she has a very long stride - which can be seen in the video. Ascot's straight six will test her stamina also, a test that all of her handler's juveniles have so far failed at Ascot. The table below shows two-year-old Wesley wunners (sorry) by wace (really sorry) distance. Wascal wabbit.

It's not a massive sample by any manner of means but it is pretty one-sided as far as it goes. It's enough for me to look elsewhere. But where exactly?

The ratings guys and gals are all over Ebro River, the quirky but talented slow-starter and fast-finisher. He rocketed by his field in the five furlong National Stakes at Sandown last time, that Listed contest run on soft ground. But he's a stressy horse so, while I think he can get the extra eighth I worry his temperament might prove his undoing. Loads of ability.

Gisburn is another to consider having waltzed more than six lengths clear of his Newbury novice field last time. That form may be only okay in behind but he could have hardly been more impressive.

The problem with Ebro River and Gisburn, and also with Irish raiders Masseto and The Acropolis, is that their form to date has been achieved on a soft surface. That, naturally, does not mean they cannot perform as well on a fast track, nor even that they won't improve for it; but it does mean we're in the dark about that element of the conundrum. Angel Bleu is another who fits this category.

Two who are unbeaten in one, both representing the Gosdens, are Dhabab and Tolstoy. The former, a £200,000 breeze up purchase in late April, repaid a sliver of his purchase price on the first day of this month when surging two lengths clear in a Leicester novice, finishing off well. He's sure to improve again - as are most of his rivals - and a straight six clearly holds no terrors.

Tolstoy, by Kingman out of a Frankel mare, and a home bred colt for Sir Robert Ogden, was less eye-catching in getting up late at Yarmouth. But that was a very steadily run contest where he overcame greenness and earned a huge sectional upgrade from us. Gosden runners typically improve a chunk from first to second start and debut winners are normally worth following throughout their careers; as such, this pair are interesting.

Coventry Stakes tips

Very hard. Kaufymaker has to defy Wesley's historical tendency towards five-furlong winners, and beat the colts in the process. Most of the rest of the top of the market are unproven on very fast turf, which makes it speculator territory for me. 17/2 Dhabab has achieved a little more than 12/1 stable mate Tolstoy, but he will have been well tuned by Mocklershill ahead of his mid-April breeze and so may have slightly less progression than his colleague. They are both playable.

3.40 King's Stand Stakes (5f, Group 1, 3yo+)

Always a brilliant race to watch, the King's Stand is a fast five contested by the best speedsters in Britain, and some of the best from further afield. There is, happily, a little more form with which to work this time.

Battaash stands above his rivals on ratings, and is the reigning champ, unbeaten in three in 2020. But he comes here off a fracture injury which required an operation and a pin in a joint. Again, we're into the unknown in terms of how that will affect him especially on very fast ground. If he's the same model as last year he'll very likely win, and after timers may be crowing about getting close to 2/1 about such an obviously brilliant sprinter.

But it's quite a big if for me, especially with a progressive three-year-old in the line up who could have more to offer: something she will need if the jolly's A game is on display. Cue Winter Power, the apple of Tim Easterby's eye and a winner of five of her eight turf starts though not yet above Group 3 level. She was a huge improver as a juvenile, stepping from a mark of 76 on handicap debut (where she won by five lengths on good to firm) to her current 114 official peg. That leaves her nine pounds to find with the favourite but joint third top against the rest of the field. As I say, if Battaash is himself he probably wins; if not, it's up for grabs.

The other two obvious alternatives are Oxted and Extravagant Kid. Oxted enjoyed an annus mirabilis last year and gave trainer Roger Teal a dream time of things. But the five-year-old has not quite been at the same level thus far in 2021. He has run well on his two UK starts this term when placed in minor Group races at Newmarket and York but it might be Newmarket, his favourite stamping ground, in July when we see the best of him.

Brendan Walsh, an Irishman training in America, brings his globetrotting star, Extravagant Kid, a winner of the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup night in March. As an eight-year-old veteran of fifty - count 'em! - races, he's recently been a regular bridesmaid having run second in five of his seven starts since September last year. The exceptions were when fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint behind Glass Slippers, and that Meydan G1. Acklam Express, himself a fast horse but not considered a Group 1 sprinter hitherto, was just three-quarters of a length back in third on World Cup night and that, for me, anchors the form a touch. Their prices are 10/1 and 33/1 and I leave it to you to discern where, if anywhere, the value lies.

Liberty Beach is a bit of a heart-breaker, usually running well but in defeat. That was the case when she was third to Battaash in this last year, and when fourth in the Albany Stakes the year before. We're then into the realms of horses with a stone and more to find with an on-song favourite. That's a bridge too far.

There looks to be a ton of speed in the field, which is not hugely surprising but could set things up for a later runner.

King's Stand Stakes Tips

If the Battaash of last year shows up, he will win. But there are reasons to believe he may not, the key one being that injury and subsequent convalescence. But it's also worth remembering that his prior Ascot record, when crowds were in situ, was unconvincing. Running up to Blue Point twice was hardly poor form but it was good form in defeat. 7/4 doesn't quite accommodate those reservations in my view.

This might be the time for Winter Power to bloom into a Group 1 sprinter for all that she has a bit to find in order to do that. This will be only her second start as a three-year-old. Or perhaps Oxted will show he can win Group races away from HQ. He was only a length behind Glen Shiel on soft ground in the G1 British Champions' Sprint in October and, if returning to his best, he will be bang there. Extravagant Kid is normally on the premises and there are no clear reasons why that will not again be the case.

A no bet race for me because of the if's and but's about the jolly and very few plausible rivals at the top of the market; and most of the rest miles out of their ground in known ability terms.

4.20 St James's Palace Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo)

To the round course for this mile Group 1 and a traditional crossing of swords between the major Guineas protagonists. And it's a wide open contest featuring the English Guineas winner Poetic Flare against a raft of unexposed rivals many of which avoided the early Classics. Indeed, Poetic Flare incredibly ran in all three of the English, French and Irish 2000 Guineas, running 162 respectively!

He got no luck in the run in France behind St Mark's Basilica, who himself sidestepped this in favour of the Prix du Jockey Club (which he won), and was only beaten a chin in the Irish version - to his stable mate, Mac Swiney. That's very solid form indeed whichever way you cut it. The negatives? Four runs in the space of six and a bit weeks, and a fifth run since 11th April; and the phalanx of upwardly mobile rivals from major yards. It is nearly four weeks since his most recent race so perhaps he's ready to go again; he's certainly able enough.

What of the remainder? Many chances.

First on the list is the Gosdens' Mostahdaf, unraced at two and unbeaten at three. That trio comprised a Newcastle novice, a Kempton conditions race and most recently the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown. Clearly that form is a beat and three-quarters behind PF, but it is interesting to note that Gosden senior pivoted from Heron to St James's Palace with the 2018 winner Without Parole and the 2019 second, King Of Comedy. A front runner drawn stall 1, but with three Ballydoyle entries in 2, 3 and 4, he may be tactically compromised but will get first run if good enough.

Mostahdaf has so far run only on slow surfaces - standard to slow both AW starts and soft at Sandown - so the terra firmer has to be taken on trust. The trainer's modus operandi is fully taken on trust.

Battleground is in here too. The product of a union between War Front and Found was sent off favourite in the Guineas but trailed home a too-bad-to-be-true last-but-one (ah, hyphens). He'll strip fitter and can be expected to get a lot closer than the last day to Poetic Flare. It's worth noting he won the Chesham last season at the Royal meeting.

Godolphin are represented by Highland Avenue and La Barrosa, perhaps principally the former. That first named has form tied in closely with Mostahdaf, not least when running to within a half length of the Gosden colt at Sandown. He's previously won the Listed Feilden Stakes over a furlong further and on ground a step quicker than the Heron, so has fewer questions to answer for all that his form is a crotchet below his last day conqueror. He'll stay well if it's strongly run.

La Barrosa looked a colt to follow when edged out by a stablemate in the Craven but fluffed his lines having travelled strongly in the Irish 2000. It's possible he didn't handle the very soft ground there - all previous efforts were on good or faster, including a 7f Ascot debut score - and, if so, he might come into the reckoning. But he has to improve a fair chunk on form as well. Not out of the question.

Lucky Vega was a talented - Group 1 winning and placing - juvenile last term, and has run 34 in the English and Irish 2000 Guineas so far this campaign. His wide draw feels like it should be a negative but historically has not been as can be seen below.

A truly run race where he can tack across and finish well might be just what jockey Shane Foley and trainer Jessica Harrington are after.

The one horse to finish behind Battleground at Newmarket was Thunder Moon, previously third to St Mark's Basilica in the Dewhurst on his final two-year-old run. That form puts him in with a squeak at a playable price.

Wembley was the meat in the St Mark-Thunder Moon Dewhurst sandwich but he's clunked twice since and is running out of excuses.

And still there are more, such as 2000 Guineas fifth, Chindit, and facile handicap scorer Naamoos amongst others.

St James's Palace Stakes tips

It's another fascinating contest. Clear form pick is 4/1 Poetic Flare, but they will be queuing up to take him down. In what might be a fast run affair, the likes of 15/2 Lucky Vega and 10/1 Thunder Moon are interesting for different reasons. But I'm keeping my powder largely dry, small bits on the above aside.

5.00 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2 handicap, 4yo+)

The first handicap of the week is the two and a half mile Ascot Stakes for older horses. Willie Mullins and Ryan Moore are normally the team, the duo combining six times for three wins and two further places. M C Muldoon is the one this time, not sighted on the flat since October 2018, but in decent form over hurdles this spring.

The fact that Moore will likely have had the pick of the Mullins trio and has opted for this guy is a big clue. The rest is, as with others up the page, taken on trust.

The Irish are responsible for the next two in the betting, both trained by Mullins': Cape Gentleman for Emmet and Rayapour for Willie. The latter is a French import whose form was all on a softer surface. On his first start for Closutton he was sent off 4/6 for a maiden hurdle and, after a two year break, faded into third late on.

Cape Gentleman is more obvious: A Grade 2 hurdle winner at Kempton two back, he'd previously bolted up in the Irish Cesarewitch on soft ground. Quicker is again a reservation.

Royal Illusion is the third Willie Mullins entry: he looks a touch more exposed.

At each way prices, Rochester House ran better than his finishing position in the Chester Cup last time (horror draw) and was fifth in this last year as well as second in the Goodwood Handicap over 2m5f. And Just Hubert won that latter race, is only four pounds higher now, and handles fast ground. Last year's winner, Coeur De Lion, was fifth and sixth in the two previous renewals so clearly handles conditions though he's crept up in the weights a little.

Lots more with chances, natch.

Ascot Stakes tips

Very open and I'll probably be annoyed that Willie Mullins wins it with a horse with impenetrable or no relevant form. Annoyed mainly because I'll have backed something else. My something elses will primarily be 10/1 Cape Gentleman and I'll roll each way with 18/1 Rochester House with a few extra places (seven with Sky, 20/1 five places elsewhere).

5.35 Wolferton Stakes (1m2f, Listed, 4yo+)

Still two to go in the new expanded format and Tuesday's penultimate is the Wolferton. The top three in the betting are a combined 7 from 60 over the past 20 years which encourages the quest for a longer price. John Gosden has the best record with four winners from a dozen runners since 2009.

With his son he saddles Forest Of Dean, winner of a valuable York handicap and the valuable Winter Derby at Lingfield in his past six runs. Fast ground and ten furlongs is optimal for this chap; the appointment of Frankie Dettori for the first time since the York score is hardly a negative. Conditions look ideal for a big effort from stall 1 with my only niggle being getting locked up in traffic just behind the leaders.

Forest Of Dean has gone toe to toe with Felix in three of his last four starts, and will do so again here. There may be little between them once more, though I fancy the quick turf might play to Team Gosden over Team Botti.

At the top of the lists is Patrick Sarsfield, second in a similar race at the Curragh not quite a fortnight ago. The Joseph O'Brien runner will be bidding to break his trainer's 27 runner winless streak at the Royal meeting; it's clearly a matter of when not if but with no seconds and only a brace of bronzes from his yard so far, I'll sit the shorties out as a general principle. He was a Group 3 winner last season and is entitled to progress from that seasonal debut so won't shock anyone by passing the jam stick in front.

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Solid Stone looks another late maturing sort off that particular conveyor belt, his most recent effort in winning the Royal Windsor Stakes (Listed) a clear peak. That puts him level with Patrick S on ratings but two back from the evergreen Euchen Glen. Now eight, Euchen won around four hundred thousand quid for connections and is a stalwart of the Jim Goldie team; he looked as good as ever when claiming the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last month, but might have been a smidge flattered by the mental tempo of, unbelievably, a four-runner race! He's a strong stayer - has won over two miles - so the harder they go the better for him.

Blue Cup put it all together for the first time in a while when dancing to victory in an Epsom handicap last time. A buzzy type who has often fretted his race away before the start, the first time hood might just be the key to him stepping forward now. His later running style and inside draw suggest a potentially difficult trip, however.

Wolferton Stakes tips

Very open and Joseph's jolly just might do it. But history says taking a flyer at a bit more of a price is often the way to go, so I'll chance 15/2 Forest Of Dean each way. The trainer's record is peerless in this event, the horse has optimal conditions and young man Frankie steering. That's plenty of yesses in a race full of maybes.

6.10 Copper Horse Handicap (1m6f, Class 2, 4yo+)

Ten past six, ladies and gentlemen. Ouch. The Copper Horse is back, and older stayers will rejoice; or at least their owners and trainers will.

It's a staying handicap so Willie Mullins is in the mix. This time he relies solely on Saldier and naturally called Ryan to ride. They say you should add around 40 pounds to a flat mark to work out the approximate hurdle rating. Well, working back from a timber-topping figure of 155 or so gives 115, which makes 103 look on the feasible side..! He was a Grade 1 winner in his prime and bolted up in an egg and spoon job on his first flat run since contesting Pattern contests in France in 2017.

The wheel has revolved once or twice since then but there were at least some embers still smouldering in his belly at Listowel nine days ago, which would have been a tonic to all concerned following a distinctly lacklustre top table campaign over hurdles last winter. He probably just wins, doesn't he?

Good luck with your opening day wagers. If you like another, or some others, feel free to leave a comment below. And thanks, as always, for reading.

Matt

Monday Musings: New Blood

14 June 2021/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

If there is one thing horse racing in the UK needs above all else it is owners: men or women with resources, a love for the sport and the willingness to put up with the absurd economics of excessive and ever-rising costs against persistently modest returns via prizemoney, writes Tony Stafford.

The new player would need to be committed to the game. Like the brothers Maktoum, now down to two from four after first Maktoum Al Maktoum, Ruler of the Emirate, died in 2006 and, only this year, second in terms of age, Sheikh Hamdan also left the stage.

Nominally third in seniority but the long-term number two auditioning for the top job was Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, now in his 70’s after more than four decades’ involvement in our sport.

We had met in Kentucky and one day I sat with him and Michael (not yet Sir) Stoute as we waited near the famed King’s Head pub and eating house in Dullingham to see the young home-bred stock that the late Richard Casey, subsequently trainer of top handicap chaser Hogmanay, had in his charge. The Sheikh opined, “it doesn’t take ten years to build a breeding operation, more like thirty”. After last weekend, probably 38 years after our chat, with home-bred winners of the 2021 Derby and Kentucky Derby on the Roll of Honour, he has just about made it!

Hogmanay had been one of a package of ten horses I bought without the luxury of having the £100k to pay for them from Malcolm Parrish, owner of a massive stable of his own horses, a sort of precursor to Jim Bolger, but an Englishman based in France with carpet-making mills in Belgium.

Malcolm supervised the training but a M. De Tarragon, his head lad, held the licence and was officially responsible for the 100-head or so horses. I met him in July 1984 in the long-gone Cashel Palace Hotel near Ballydoyle but it was a total fluke as I was really over to meet David O’Brien who at 27 had become the youngest trainer to win the Derby with Secreto.

While the later O’Brien’s seem to have perfected the art of enjoying each other’s major successes, the 1984 Derby brought major tensions as the favourite and previously 2,000 Guineas winner El Gran Senor was lined up for a massive stud deal subject to his winning the Derby. In the race, Pat Eddery on the favourite appeared to be going far better than Christy Roche on the eventual winner but in a desperate finish was beaten a short-head.

The verdict had to delayed while Eddery objected but the result was upheld. Fortunately for the initial Coolmore team, El Gran Senor won the Irish Derby – his task eased by Secreto’s absence – and the Epsom hero also missed both the King George and Eclipse Stakes, retiring without racing again.

I had previously met David O’Brien on my trip that July to Keeneland, invited for my first look at the great Calumet Farm, owned by several generations of the influential Wright family. Then an outsider, J T Lundy married into the family and by this time controlled the place. His stewardship was to become a matter for serious concern in the city, but he had arranged a deal to buy 50 per cent of the would-be stallion for $20 million. The strain of training told on young O’Brien whose sister Sue Magnier says he is much happier tending his grape vines in France where he has been based for many years.

I was to see Calumet later when a previous contact, Henryk De Kwiatkowski, bought it and started the revival of the farm’s fortunes. Upon his death, his own family never having been interested in racing and breeding, new owners came in and it is again at the forefront in Lexington.

Incidentally, my wife recommended I watch the Netflix series The Queen’s Gambit and I was amazed when this epic tale about a female chess genius was entirely centred on Lexington. Right at the start her mother’s car is on New Circle Road, a mini-M25 I cruised every inch both ways during my many visits there. The scene again early in the seven-part series where the heroine plays a tournament at the Henry Clay school also invoked memories of a good friend of Brian Meehan, Henry’s grandson, who had several horses with him at Manton. Great series, you will love it, I promise!

Secreto was owned by a Venezuelan, Senor Miglietti, who also owned the main bus company in Caracas and had, it seems, connections with some less-than-reputable individuals in his country.

Down the decades, other major Arab owners have stayed the course, none more valiantly than Prince Khalid Abdullah, breeder and owner of dozens of the world’s great horses but two will do – Frankel and Enable. His passing, also this year, will no doubt lead to a diminution of seeing his pink, green and white on the racecourses of the UK and beyond and for the blue and white of Hamdan a reduction of 100 is immediately to be enacted.

Two Princes to suffer uncannily similar early deaths at the first years of the Millennium were Abdullah’s countrymen brothers Fahd and Ahmed Salman, both dead in their early 40’s. Their father has since become King Salman in Saudi Arabia.

I brought in Malcolm Parrish and Hogmanay because he was one of the ten horses. We got onto that tack as earlier he had sold two good horses to Michael Dickinson and I had a small part in that. “Want any more?”, he asked then elaborated. “Yeah okay, you can have ten for 100 grand, I won’t put you wrong,” he added.

Hogmanay was one of them but Rod Simpson, who had the job of sorting them out (and on balance did pretty well) said Hogmanay will never stand training, so the £5k he represented in the deal was deducted. For each of his eight wins (seven over fences) and £60k prizemoney a dagger went to the heart. In the end, I did manage to pay for them and there were some very decent animals among them. Later Malcolm bought both Lordship and Egerton studs in Newmarket before passing them on.

With deference to the Dixon brothers who head up the Horse Watchers, and who combine television expertise with phenomenally successful ownership, journalists are hardly likely to make that jump. But one man who has shown signs of joining racing’s big time is the football agent Kia Joorabchian, who has been one of the more visible personalities in the first months of the season.

His horses – 37 have run – have collected 22 wins and more than £400,000 in prizes. That compares with £240,000 in the whole of last season with 18 wins. But what gives the game away is that his horse Mayo Star, a maiden who finished runner-up to Adayar in the Derby nine days ago, earned £241,000 for that one run, so a touch more than for all last season’s exploits.

There is no doubt Kia has gone about it whole-heartedly. Using trainers like Roger Varian, Richard Hannon and Ralph Beckett he has not been shy to spend, paying for instance 460,000gns for a Shamardal colt he sent to Varian. Great King has won one of five starts and is rated 88. Of the horses he has run this year alone – he also has several similarly-expensive acquisitions from the recent breeze-ups in the pipeline - he has spent almost £6milion in acquiring them.

As the man behind the controversial Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano deals a decade or so ago, Kia has become a leader in his business and at 49 he is still a relative young man in racing ownership terms. This year his colours could be represented at Royal Ascot by up to 16 horses. Pivotal to his early success this year have been his two-year-olds with Beckett being joined by George Boughey and Michael Bell as having feasible chances in the juvenile events.

The best candidates in the purple silks must be in the Albany Stakes where once-raced 350,000gns Wolverhampton winner Hello You (Beckett) and twice-successful and cheaply bought Beautiful Sunset (Boughey) are due to line up and are both prominent in the ante-post market. He also has realistic chances with the Varian-trained and seemingly well-handicapped Raadobarg, £200k, in the Britannia, with Hannon’s Sir Rumi (£160k) as a potential second string.

Kia will have a major interest of course in the Euro 2020 championship as will another of the big soccer (and many other sports) agencies, the ICM Stellar Group’s boss, Jonathan Barnett.

From an earlier generation than Joorabchian, Jonathan, along with partner David Manasseh, sold the agency last year to the American group, but they remain in day-to-day charge. Their major players at the competition include four of the England squad (Mason Mount and Jordan Pickford, who played yesterday, as well as Jack Grealish and Luke Shaw who watched the 1-0 win from the subs bench). Gareth Bale (Wales) and Kieren Tierney (Scotland) will also be well to the fore at the championships.

Less than an hour after full-time at Wembley, Jonathan was watching his lightly-raced four-year-old Fitzcarraldo winning with a fast finish at Longchamp for trainer Nicolas Clement. Fitzcarraldo was a €27k buy that took time to mature but now looks like a stayer with a future. Clement, who is head of France’s trainers’ association, has a record of bargain buys having paid £30k for Ray Tooth’s Group 1 winner and later 2,000 Guineas second French Fifteen, who has been sending out jumps winners as a stallion lately.

Given a £40k budget to buy a yearling last autumn, Clement came up with a €21,000 daughter of Derby winner Ruler of the World and he rates her very highly. That’s the way Barnett, also owner of the decent handicapper Year Of The Dragon with William Knight, prefers it, rather than the Joorabchian method.

I bet the people that have been recruited to buy the Amo racing horses would be horrified at M. Clement’s behaviour. Watch out for Fitzcarraldo. I would not be at all surprised if later in the year the jumping boys come calling for this big strong gelded son of Makfi. Maybe then the Clement business acumen that turned a £30k colt into a £1.3 million Classic prospect and future stallion will be rather more in evidence.

Two Against The Field At Prices In Live York Handicap

11 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

Most trainers, jockeys and bettors will have one eye on Royal Ascot here but there is still some good racing on Saturday and most of the live races look fairly solvable – ahead of a week where there will be many impossible looking puzzles!

This week’s preview is going to focus on the 2.35 at York, an eleven runner 7f handicap at York that will be shown live on ITV4.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

Not the biggest field so unlikely to be much draw advantage but let’s see.

The win data here slightly favours middle draws, whilst the place percentages and PRB data suggest there is a very slight edge towards those drawn high. A difference of just 0.02 PRB between low draws and high draws suggest there is pretty much nothing in the draw in this field size and it’s pretty evident you can win from anywhere.

Don’t let the draw put you off anything or draw you towards any of the runners in this contest.

Pace

There are some significant pace biases over shorter distances here at York, but what about at 7f?

Once again we see some very fair data for this field size. The win and place percentages both suggest there is a marginal advantage by being slightly closer to the pace but with so little difference it looks a very fair course and distance. The place percentage for front runners in these conditions is 29.31% and the place percentage for hold ups is 28.13% so everything has a very even chance it seems.

Pace Map

With very little natural pace bias here the pace of this individual race should have a much larger bearing on the outcome than the course.

Not a huge amount of pace on here with Dazzling Dan looking most likely to take them along. It’s worth noting that Manigordo has been on the pace in two of his last three runs but he was unable to lead last time against several other front runners. Up in trip and with less pace on here he’ll have no problem getting the lead if he wants it.

National League is tactically flexible and has made the running in the recent past. He was held up last time but that was when slowly away at Chester from stall 8. Expect him to be much closer early on in this.

Ostilio has been a front runner for much of his career but he’s shown no spark in either of his runs this term. It’s difficult to expect anything different from him here but if he was back on his game he is potentially another pace angle.

Whatever happens this will probably be run at an even tempo. The likes of Golden Apollo and Queens Sargent will certainly be hoping the pace setters go off too fast as it will suit their come from behind style.

The Runners

A run through of each horse’s chance, in early odds order.

Dazzling Dan

He’d only previously tried 7f on heavy ground before this season but won comfortably on his first attempt at the trip on fast ground at Yarmouth, albeit only a four runner race, before a respectable 3^rd over the trip on good ground at Newmarket, a course where he has historically shown his best form.

He finished his 3yo season rated 104 and after an indifferent 2020 he was given a wind op when rated 90. His Yarmouth win was off 87 and he's back up to 91 here leaving him still well handicapped on his older form. It’s difficult to judge the strength of the form of either of his runs at this trip this season but it is worth noting that he was ridden prominently last time out, as were four of the first five home. He's also not guaranteed to be as good at York as he is at Newmarket.

Gifted Ruler

Lightly raced having had just five starts, two of which came last year as a 3yo. On this first of those he was 9^th of 11 at Lingfield, not beaten a great distance and looking as though in need of a stiffer test. He then improved dramatically on that effort back on turf, beaten just a short head in a six runner contest. That form was okay but nothing special. He’s been gelded since.

He’s still got plenty of potential but does need to improve again and he’s seemingly improved for a run in both seasons so far so could need this.

Baashir

Unraced as a 2yo and started last season well with a narrow 2^nd on debut (winner gave him 7lbs and rated as high as 91 that season) followed by an easy win on his next start in a weak novice. His form tailed off on his next two starts and he was subsequently gelded.

Started this season in good form again, finishing 2^nd to Cryuff Turn at Nottingham. The winner won again two starts later whilst the 3^rd was beaten just a nose on his next run so that’s strong form but that race was run over a mile on good to soft ground. Baashir was then dropped back to this 7f on his next start, at Chelmsford and was beaten 4 lengths, not in the same form. It’s not clear if this horse needs easy ground, a mile or is best fresh. It’s possible all three are the case. He’s opposable at 7f on fast ground but would have strong claims if able to repeat the form of his run behind Cryuff Turn.

Manigordo

Won at 25/1 three starts ago when making all over 6f at Thirsk in a race where not much got into it. That effort looked a fluke when he beat just one home at York but that race did come on easier ground and he bounced back to form next time out when 3^rd at Hamilton on faster ground. When winning at Thirsk he was reported to have improved for the drop back to 6f but on his latest run he did look worth another crack at 7f, for all he didn’t look particularly well handicapped.

National League

I was quite keen to be with this horse last season and flagged him up at the St Leger meeting when he was 3^rd at 25/1. He still hasn’t won since his 2yo days though and has to be considered a disappointment.

His best form has generally come on the all weather or on ground with plenty of dig in it, which is a worry here, but his 2^nd at 7f on good to firm at Redcar this season was a good effort as was his 7^th in the Spring Cup at Newbury on ground that was just on the fast side of good. He was slowly away last time at Chester and never picked up. The consequence of that has been connections deciding to dispense with the visor. It’s difficult to make a strong case for him, especially for win purposes, but it would be no surprise if he placed.

Golden Apollo

He's run well in some big sprint handicaps here in the past and although he’s done most of his racing at 6f, he has run well on all four attempts at this course and distance despite the fact that records will show he didn’t place in any of them.

He won the Ayr Silver Cup less than two years ago off this mark so isn’t badly handicapped, it’s just a question of his current form. He ended last season with a poor run in the Ayr Silver Cup and then didn’t look competitive on his seasonal debut at Haydock last time out, albeit on pretty testing ground. He has generally improved not only for his come back run each season, but also his second run, so it’s possible next time may be the best time to catch him although he could run well here.

Queen’s Sargent

Seems to have become poorly handicapped since his win in April and has been beaten in all ten handicap starts that have come off a mark of 87 or higher. Only two of those have come over 7f on fast ground though and on both of those occasions he has gone close to placing, beaten 2.25 lengths each time, in much deeper, big field handicaps. He’s probably not quite well handicapped enough to win this but should run well and might not get a better opportunity to win off this mark.

Admirality

One that has potentially been overlooked too much by the bookmakers for this race. I previewed the Haydock race in which he made his seasonal debut and I wrote this about his chances:

“A frustrating 7yo who has won just once in eighteen runs for Roger Fell but finished runner up on five occasions in that same period. He’s relatively versatile but is probably at his best over 7f on fast ground, his last nine turf runs on good or better at this distance have yielded form figures of 222133522. He won first time out two seasons ago but seemed to improve for the run last year. No seasonal debutant has even placed from this yard in the past 30 days from twelve runners which is a concern.”

He duly ran as though needing the run, competing 1.5f out and getting very tired in the closing stages. A drop back to 6f on soft ground next time was never going to suit so that ran is forgivable too and he finds himself back under ideal conditions, 4lbs better off than he started the season.

He has run well in 2^nd on both course and distance starts, finishing runner up to a course specialist on the first of those efforts on ground that was probably slightly softer than ideal before being beaten only by Documenting, a horse that would win a big field Ascot handicap on his next start off a 6lb higher mark.

Admirality is certainly not a horse to trust in a finish, he’s finished runner up five times since he last won, but he should outrun his odds here.

Golden Spear

Won in good style at Chester last month (had previously run well there) but hasn’t been in the same form in two starts since. He’s run some decent races here at York in the past but has been a non runner three times on good to firm in the past and the only time he has been allowed to run on ground this fast he was below form. The chances of him running a career best on fast ground look slim, being declared a non runner looks more likely.

Ostilio

Won the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot as a 3yo and finished that season a Group 2 winner, rated as high as 115. He still won a listed race last season but since moving to Paul Midgely he is yet to beat a rival in three tries, being beaten 47 lengths, 31 lengths and 20 lengths respectively. He’s only been dropped 2lbs since his last run so a sudden revival doesn’t look on the cards.

Troubador

Showed good form here (and elsewhere) as a 2yo and although he ran well on his second start as a 3yo he seemed to run progressively poorer as the season went on last year, being beaten 13 lengths on his only try at 7f (on good to firm), before being beaten 16 lengths here over 6f. He was beaten 10 lengths on his seasonal debut this year and looks best opposed.

The Verdict

I can’t confidently rule out any of the first eight in the betting here, and I don’t fancy any of them particularly strongly to win either! Dazzling Dan is probably the right favourite given he’s run well in these conditions on two recent starts and he seems a bit more consistent than most of these. Baashir looks a better handicapped horse but he’s yet to prove he can go on from his early season runs.

Most interesting at the prices are probably QUEEN'S SARGENT and ADMIRALITY, who both have ideal conditions and both of whom seem pretty consistent when getting these conditions. On a meeting at Thirsk (a course both enjoy) last season there is very little between them on these terms so they could finish close together yet again.

I’m not convinced Queen’s Sargent is quite well enough handicapped to win nor am I convinced Admirality has the bottle to finish better than 2^nd. Both are around 10/1 so could be considered each way wagers but the bets I’d be most interested in would be Admirality to finish exactly 2^nd (usually available with SkyBet as a minimum on day of race, he can be backed to finish 2nd to the field in forecasts as an alternative) and also a Tote Swinger on the pair. Not a race to get heavily involved in though.

Geegeez Gold: June 2021 Updates

9 June 2021/in Geegeez Gold, Horse Racing Blog/by Matt Bisogno

Just a few small tweaks this month, and some minor bug fixes.

DR / RS columns in Card form

The biggest of the small changes, for me at least, is the addition of draw (DR) and run style (RS) columns to the racecard inline form. These valuable snippets of info can help understand whether horses were compromised by their pace profile in relation to the race conditions and, by the same token, whether they were favoured by those things. In other words, whether a horse can be marked up or down for recent runs.

Of course, in the case of jumps races - as can be seen above with the 22nd December form line - the output shows only run style (RS). In case the notations are not self-explanatory, they are:

L - Led
P - Prominent
M - Midfield
H - Held up

I'm excited about this change!

Gelding notifications

We have also added a gelding notification to the cards where a horse or colt had previously raced as an 'entire' (i.e. with his testicles still attached!) but is now sans noix. We record this for the first three runs post-gelding, as g1, g2 and g3. This race today articulates the full gamut of g123:

You may of course elect to use the g1 notification in conjunction with our recently published 'Trainer 1st Headgear / Surgery' report (shortened to H/S1 to us in the know!) which can be found here.

Bits and bobbins

A few other minor amends have also been taken care of, some of which you may not have even been aware were broken...

We changed the obnoxious green odds toggle on the card to a more congruent colour:

We reinstated official rating on Full Form mobile view:

We centred the 3LR label in pace data view (man, you've *no idea* how much this annoyed me!!)

😖

😍

We made the season dropdown on Full Form contextual to a horse's previous run:

And we removed the 'Show/Hide Inline' buttons from the Horses for Courses and Hot Form reports. Because there was nothing to display inline!

All tiddlers in the grand scheme of things, but the ongoing removal of friction and the addition of bits of information amounts to a great deal over time. I hope there's something in the above that will make your Gold experience marginally better.

Matt

Monday Musings: Epsom Wonders

7 June 2021/in Monday Musings/by Tony Stafford

Friday morning 6 a.m. and I was keeping one of an increasing number of early-morning assignments with my good friend Steve Gilbey, long-term right-hand man of Raymond Tooth, writes Tony Stafford. He habitually – for Steve is very much a man of routine – starts his morning at crack of dawn at the North Audley Street, Mayfair, Grosvenor’s Café just along the road from Selfridge’s.

His first unofficial action is to help the early-morning setting out on the generous pavement of nine round tables and 36 chairs, using his boxing and security-man strength to speed up the operation.

But as we approached on Friday, there was a difference. A nicely-tanned, fit-looking gentleman came towards us, beaming at Steve, interrupting his own initialising that first task of the day at the café.

“How are you, my friend?” he asked. Steve had often mentioned the owner over the years but only on our previous visit the week before to my enquiry, said: “No, it’s been ages since I’ve seen him; he’s been stuck in South Africa because of Covid”.

So here we were on the morning of the Oaks and I was being introduced to the café owner, Mr Bernard Kantor. It wasn’t exactly a year before, more like eleven months, that Mr Kantor was standing alongside The Queen on the presentation dais for the Investec Derby as she gave the trophy to the Coolmore partners of shock winner Serpentine.

Co-founder and long-term managing director of the bank which had for ten years sponsored the entire Derby meeting, he had since retired upon reaching the age of 70 – you would guess ten years less when you see him.

So here was a highly-successful man actually enjoying the physical release of helping his bijou business – “I love it, it is so old school”, he says – start its day.

We had a pleasant chat, as racing people usually do, with the news that he had already been speaking to his trainer William Haggas and expected a call from him before we left after our toast and in my case some very tasty bacon in between.

As we went out, he thrust a napkin with an email address and imparted the news that Sans Pretention was fancied for the 3.00 race at Catterick that afternoon. When I got a chance to look up the race I discovered not only was the Haggas-trained three-year-old a daughter of Galileo but that she was owned and bred by a certain Bernard Kantor.

Naturally she won and this went along as just another of the ridiculously-fortuitous encounters I have experienced in my long life – even longer than the man who sponsored the Derby and who in 2018 dreamt on the morning of the race he might be winning it himself.

Haggas-trained Young Rascal, a son of Intello, had just come out on top in the Chester Vase, beating Mark Johnston’s Dee Ex Bee, but at Epsom while Dee Ex Bee filled the same position behind Masar, Young Rascal was back in seventh.

He won two more Group 3 races, both at Newbury, and a Kempton Listed to make his career tally five wins from ten starts and then he was passed on to Australian interests to continue his career. There is clearly a strong bond between owner and trainer and Kantor describes Lester Piggott’s son-in-law as “the perfect gentleman, someone who brings great credit to his profession and to racing”.

Obviously, there was little time to sample the benefit of the experiences of a man whose husbandry of his company even though he had basically lived in London for almost a quarter of a century, maintained its South African roots, always with the theme of inclusiveness of the entire population of his homeland.

But he did offer one nice moment. One year as they were erecting the presentation platform for the Derby, one of his staff showed him the three steps he had sourced up which the monarch would climb to reach the presentation area.

“I said, “can you get two taller steps?” and he asked me why. “Wait and see”, I told him. “So when the Queen came to the top step of two I had to bend down to reach her hand to help her up. As I did, right behind me a massive banner depicting “Investec” came into view. I thought he knew why then”, said Bernard.

By the way, I can’t wait to go back and try to get in between the two powerful senior citizens at least to take a couple of chairs out and next Tuesday is already in my diary. As I said, the bacon is delicious and so too are the lunches according to Steve. Grosvenor’s is open until five p.m. so if you want to sit in the sunshine just up the road from Selfridge’s, and sample “the life” I can heartily recommend it.

Ten hours after we left the café, a filly won the Cazoo Oaks by six lengths more than Shergar had won the Derby; four more than St Jovite’s margin in his Irish Derby and only second in terms of a Classic-winning distance in an attributed leading racing nation to Secretariat’s 31-length romp in the Belmont Stakes.

Big Red, though, was unbackable and faced only four vastly-inferior non-staying opponents already worn out by taking him on in the Derby and Preakness. Snowfall wasn’t even her stable’s first choice, that distinction going to beaten 1,000 Guineas favourite, Santa Barbara.

Two starts before the Oaks, Snowfall had finished eighth at 50-1, beating only two home in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket although if you have another look at the race you will hear the commentator calling her a close third in her pink cap.

But that was the day the caps between her and better-fancied stable-companion Mother Earth were inadvertently switched, so the white cap, intended for Mother Earth ended on Snowfall who was just hunted up once victory was out of the question.

The Aidan O’Brien team were given a disciplinary sanction for the mix-up but events for the two fillies in 2021 have been ample compensation. Mother Earth, ridden by Frankie Dettori as Ryan Moore partnered the much-lauded favourite Santa Barbara, won the 1,000 Guineas and on Friday, Snowfall, also with Dettori as Moore was again more-or-less obliged to stay with the now Oaks favourite but Santa Barbara never held up much hope as Dettori landed on his feet on an O’Brien Group 1 winner.

There was a race in between the 50-1 no-show and the best Oaks winner of all the years I’ve been watching racing and probably any in the previous two centuries. That was the Musidora when Moore made all the running on the 14-1 shot and just when it looked as though the better-fancied challengers would be coming to get her at the end of the ten and a bit furlongs she opened out again. Most observers on the day thought she might struggle to repeat it at Epsom.

I mentioned last week that O’Brien horses could suddenly make massive strides from two to three. Already up from an official 90 after the Fillies’ Mile, she was raised to 108 after York and with the look from that race and in her pedigree that stamina would not be a problem, she had to come into the Oaks argument.

But this was not an argument. Projecting the late York surge away from the trio that were chasing her at York another almost two furlongs on a more testing track and on rain-drenched ground clearly produced extra dimensions of superiority.

In the last furlong and a half, perfectly in tune with his filly, once Dettori grabbed the stands rails with a little tickle to the long-term leader Mystery Angel, the margin stretched exponentially. As with Secretariat who, once his far-inferior rivals were stone cold, put in an exhibition for the Belmont Park crowd, so did Snowfall in leafy Surrey.

If the Epsom finish line had been another furlong on, 30 lengths would have been a realistic margin. How Snowfall can lose the Arc off bottom weight with all the allowances against her elders and male opponents is hard to imagine. I wonder how daring Dominic Gardner-Hill will be in rating her after this?

We all expected, especially once Aidan removed his other five acceptors from the path of favourite Bolshoi Ballet, his own ninth Derby to go with the same record number of Oaks (Oakses? Ed.) looked almost a case of going down and coming back.

But while that can happen occasionally in a Derby, there are always potential pitfalls. Afterwards everyone was musing on why the favourite had so clearly under-performed. It was only as the generous praise for hard-working Adam Kirby, winner on Charlie Appleby’s well-deserved second score in the race with strong staying Adayar, that Aidan O’Brien was tweeting a ghastly-looking wound on the favourite’s off-hind leg where he had been struck into in the early scrimmaging.

Hopefully he can be brought back to full health to challenge Adayar later in the season, though maybe their future diverging distance requirements might make that unlikely.

Not 24 hours later, with last year’s Dewhurst winner St Mark’s Basilica annexing the Prix Du Jockey Club yesterday in such emphatic fashion to add to his earlier French 2000 Guineas success, Coolmore and O’Brien instantly re-established themselves at the top of the three-year-old colts’ division, too. It all makes for an exciting year.

Adam Kirby is such a nice bloke. One day coming back from a race meeting up north, one of my tyres blew but luckily it was close to the services on the A14. I limped into the garage and luckily noticed Big Paulie, formerly Adam’s driver, who had just stopped to re-fuel.

Paulie looked into the car, spoke to a bare-chested and clearly sleepy passenger who hastily pulled on some clothes and came out to look with Paulie at the damage. Within minutes they had changed the tyre with minimal help from the driver and we were all on our way. As I reiterate, very nice bloke is Mr Kirby!

Godolphin’s second win in four years started an astonishing day, rounded off by Essential Quality, who made the Belmont Stakes – the third leg of the US Triple Crown – his sixth win in seven career starts.

Before yesterday, Essential Quality, a son of Tapit and, like Adayar a home-bred Godolphin colt, suffered that sole defeat when fourth to the controversial Medina Spirit, absent from the field last night and with his trainer Bob Baffert now under a two-year ban from having runners at Churchill Downs.

Even if Medina Spirit is disqualified, as seems inevitable after two positive drug tests, the latter in a laboratory Baffert chose to carry out the test, there is no prospect of Essential Quality being the beneficiary beyond being promoted to third. Had he won the Derby, I’m sure trainer Brad Cox would have run him back in the Preakness.

In any case it was a memorable weekend for Godolphin, but even if they win ten more Derbys and three US Triple Crowns, it will never wash away for me the memory of a horse and jockey in perfect synchronicity slicing up the last furlong in the biggest show of superiority I have ever witnessed in a championship Flat race.

Early Favourite Has The Power At Epsom

4 June 2021/in Big Race Previews, Horse Racing Blog/by samdarby

There is some great live action at Epsom on Saturday and although ITV are showing the first five races from their card it’s possible the two most interesting betting races are the pair of contests that act as the Derby meeting’s finale. This preview is going to concentrate on the ‘Northern Dancer Handicap’, which will be run at 5.15pm over the Derby trip of 12f.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

Draw advantages can often be stronger at shorter distances, is there a bias over this longer trip?

There looks to be a pretty strong draw bias here on ground ranging from good to firm down to good to soft. The sample size isn’t the biggest but even if you include non-handicap data the trends are still the same.

In similar field sizes to this there have been no low drawn handicap winners in thirteen races. Nine have come from middle draws and seven have come from high draws. With a small sample size the place percentages and PRB figures are much more relevant but they too back up the win data.

The place percentages for low, middle and high draws are 14.06%, 27.42% and 34.38% respectively. The PRB figures are 0.42, 0.52 and 0.56 respectively. Those are some hefty jumps in performance, especially between low and middle. It seems a high draw is favoured over middle but a middle draw certainly shouldn’t be deemed a disadvantage, it’s far more preferable to a low draw.

Let’s dig deeper into the individual stall data.

Looking at the PRB data for each gate, stalls 3 and 6 actually perform pretty well but remember we have a small sample here and the four worst figures belong to stalls 5, 1, 2 and 4 strongly suggest a low draw is a negative. In fact the worst six stalls for PRB are all 8 or below.

The PRB3 data shows an average of the stall in question and the two stalls either side and looking at the line graph above featuring the PRB3 data it clearly shows the higher the draw the better over this distance. Each runner is going to enjoy a slight advantage over the runner drawn slightly lower.

Pace

Is the pace bias as strong as the draw data?

The win percentage data seems to suggest a strong front running bias in similar field sizes in handicaps with a 14.63% win percentage for front runners compared to 7.37% for prominent, 8.82% for mid division and 9.85% for held up.

However we have a pretty small sample of races here and the place percentage data should give us a more accurate representation of any pace biases. The place percentages here are 26.83% for front runners, 24.21% for prominent, 30.88% for mid division and 30.30% for held up. The place data seems to suggest this is an extremely fair course and distance in terms of pace bias.

It’s entirely possible that the win percentage data for front runners isn’t misleading. Front runners can slip the field when getting an easy lead but I wouldn’t worry too much about any pace biases over this distance unless the pace map for a particular race suggests an extreme, one way or another.