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Joy O Joy! Tuesday morning, almost two months later than usual when the social-distancing postman left my little package on the doorstep having already scooted ten yards away before I answered the doorbell, it was here, writes Tony Stafford.
A helpful bookseller used his influence to get a pal to send me my copy of Horses In Training, guaranteed reading matter for the next two months and reference until the next one arrives hopefully off the bookstall at Cheltenham racecourse next March.
I swiftly turned to the William Haggas page and saw with some surprise that he had the same number of horses listed – 199 – as last year. On further scrutiny they WERE the same horses. Not surprisingly, as I’d been sent last year’s book.
When a friend does you a favour you need to let him down lightly, and he took no umbrage, instead putting in motion the right volume, which duly arrived speedily enough on Friday morning. I note that Mr Haggas is doing rather badly in stock market company annual results terms with just 197 horses under his care this time round. Still he’ll have one per cent more free time this year for which I’m sure he and Maureen will be grateful.
They’ll have to get son and ace agent Sam to get a few new owners through the door. Maybe he already has at the breeze-ups this spring?
Chester has come and gone – without me, of course, but Harry Taylor dutifully went driving up on his own on Tuesday evening. For anyone who has never been there in May, Chester town centre is the busiest and most vibrant place with bars, restaurants and hotels brim-full with people for the whole week.
After checking in to his up-the-hill-from-the-track hotel at what appeared a more-than-bargain rate, he thought he ought to stretch his legs – and found a ghost town: nothing open and freezing cold to boot!
Never mind, he thought, tomorrow we’ve got the owners’ restaurant at the track – the best food anywhere in UK racing bar maybe the Royal Ascot Racing Club, but they don’t let the likes of us in there! Not this year: “It’s the worst food I’ve had anywhere. Newmarket and Sandown were great, in fact for the first time I found a racecourse chef that could cook roast potatoes properly, but this was dreadful.
“Because of Covid, the waitresses weren’t allowed to serve food so we had it cold in a cardboard box.” Harry was booked in for three nights so he was gritting his teeth, but after the lunch debacle and then being forced to stay outside, by the evening he decided he’d had enough.
“Thursday morning I set off for home. I’m sure if I’d stayed another day I’d have got pneumonia”, he said. Having denied myself the usual bonhomie with Harry and also Alan Newman (another absentee this time) that we’d enjoyed for the past few years, it was probably fortunate that I stayed home.
One delight we missed was a promised Thursday dinner with Ian Williams, on the eve of his nine-pronged challenge on the Chester Cup (three) and Chester Plate, the consolation race in which he had six runners.
Ian’s The Grand Visir was a brilliant second in the historic Cup to the Irish (yes, them again) Falcon Eight, trained by Dermot Weld and ridden by Frankie Dettori. That horse’s success owed as much to handicapping leniency as anything else and Dermot is a talented international trainer and one hardly needing any gratuitous assistance from officialdom.
The only Irish runner in the main race, the six-year-old’s most recent run was in a Group 3 at The Curragh last June when off level weights he was fourth, beaten just over five lengths by Twilight Payment.
While Falcon Eight was kicking his heels on The Curragh in the intervening ten and a half months, Twilight Payment added to that June win with another, by eight lengths, in a Group 2 over course and distance before a close third in the Irish St Leger.
Sent to Melbourne by Joseph O’Brien, Twilight Payment then won the 23-runner Melbourne Cup getting the better of an all-Irish, all O’Brien 1-2 just ahead of dad Aidan’s three-year-old Tiger Moth.
For those achievements, it might be thought that Twilight Payment may have earned more than the 5lb handicap rise the three wins and a Group 1 third have entailed. Even more mystifying, Falcon Eight, beaten five lengths by Twilight Payment on his last run at levels might expect to be no more than 5lb lower than Twilight Payment’s rating at the time, never mind the collateral form that handicappers are wont to invoke when it suits.
But no, this high-class stayer, who on Friday brought his career stats to four wins in ten runs, was DROPPED 4lb to 104. Just to get a flavour of the injustice, The Grand Visir, whose last win of five over his career came in the 2019 Ascot Stakes off 100, has been beaten nine times since then yet remains on 103!
Ian Williams’ six runners in the Plate did no better than the third achieved by versatile winning hurdler Hydroplane, but here another less expected owner of that surname which sprinkles nicely through the W’s in Horses In Training 2021 came to the fore.
This was heavy-ground steeplechase specialist Venetia Williams who since the mid-1990’s has sent out around 1500 winners over jumps in the UK.
It’s rather different on the Flat. In all, over 24 seasons she’s had a total of eight winners and by taking the Chester Plate with much-travelled Green Book she was equalling her best score for any season – namely one.
The eight wins have come in that time from 153 runners but this was the first from the five horses that have appeared from her stable over the last five seasons. Originally trained by Brian Ellison for his prominent owner Kristian Strangeway, Green Book was placed in four of five starts as a two-year-old.
Kristian moved the French-bred to France, presumably to take advantage of the higher prize money – especially for places – and owner premiums and was rewarded with five more runs in the money from eight starts for Patrick Monfort at Senonnes.
The decision was made to sell the gelding and he was picked up at Arqana’s Deauville sale in November for a partnership of owners of Venetia’s – 100% to go jumping. He had one try, a promising second place over hurdles at Hereford in February and it seems the decision may well have been to keep him a novice for the embryo season which got going a couple of weeks back.
So instead of a second jumps run, Green Book turned up at Chester and the €30k buy made all under Franny Norton and was never troubled to take the £18k first prize. Venetia loves a French-bred and, of 80 horses in her stable according to HIT 2021, 40, including Green Book, started out from France.
There are other trainers with a higher proportion of horses emanating from that well-travelled source, even among trainers called Williams. Two, Mrs Jane and husband Nick are each listed as training at Culverhill Farm, George Nympton, South Molton, Devon and their strings are respectively numbers 583 and 584 of the 602 in the book – it also includes a few from outside the UK.
Mrs Jane has 24, all bar seven French-bred, while Nick has one more, so 25, and of these 20 are French-bred. It’s as close as you could get to an equal opportunities operation for their two teams.
The way they source raw material, often quite cheaply, from France and habitually turn it into competitive racehorses, is no mean feat given the West Country hothouse in which they choose to compete.
It’s a shame that Richard Fahey, for several years probably the trainer with the most horses but one who for years declined to reveal his hand where juveniles are concerned, now has pulled out completely. It’s a particular shame when you’re as nosey as me.
The new Gosden partnership still keeps the older horse contingent – 151 this year – available for snoopers, but for a couple of years now the juveniles have gone missing. I remember only a short time ago adding up the cost of all the auction-bought two-year-olds in dad John’s string and you were hard pushed to find many that cost much less than 100K with many three and four times that. It probably got uncomfortable just how advantaged they and others at the top end are in terms of numerical and quality of opportunity.
Three of the other of the big names – Johnston, Hannon, and Haggas – have their full strings available, but with sale prices expunged. How refreshing that Michael Easterby, who hit the age 90 mark on March 30, has no such sensitivities. Surely creating a UK training record for the number of horses in the care of a 90-year-old, he has 116 at Sheriff Hutton.
Twenty of the 41 juveniles have their sale price proudly displayed. The most expensive was a filly by Caravaggio, who is a likely champion first-crop sire, which cost £28,571. The cheapest purchase was a colt by Estidhkaar at £2,857. Go Mick! He, of course, has son David well to the fore as his assistant!
Nephew Tim Easterby, son of Mick’s elder brother Miles Henry (Peter), who also happily is still very much around, has 173 and again, no coyness where prices for yearling buys is concerned. The Easterbys are so successful (and of course brilliant at their job) that soon they might be having as many horses as acres on which they train. <Don’t be silly, Ed!>.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/DavidProbert_newGeegeezLogo-e1538582067746.jpg313830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-05-10 06:30:202021-05-09 22:32:25Monday Musings: Chester Chat and the HIT Book
Some nice racing awaits on Saturday but there is no doubt about the main betting race of the day, the Victoria Cup at Ascot which will be run at 3.40pm and shown live on ITV4. Just the 29 runners go to post and we haven’t had much soft ground this season so there is every chance the form book gets turned on it’s head.
On the subject of the ground, it’s good to soft at the time of writing with 10mm+ forecast for late morning and early afternoon on Saturday so there is every chance this will be run on proper soft ground.
Draw
First let’s take a look at a possible draw advantage on softer ground over this course and distance.
Not a massive sample of races but some big fields so the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) should be pretty reliable. This suggests high (PRB of 0.53) is most favoured, followed by low (0.51) and then middle is worst of all (0.46). The Ascot draw bias can change from one side to another from race to race and meeting to meeting which is potentially why each wing performs better than the middle.
Every metric appears to reinforce that there is a bias towards high drawn runners here.
Looking back at recent runnings of the Victoria Cup, there was no race last year due to covid but in 2019 seven of the first eight finishers were drawn in double figures. In 2018 the race was run on good to firm but once again the double figure stalls dominated, producing eight of the first nine home. In 2017 the best placed single figure stall was 12th and 2014 was the penultimate time this race was run with cut in the ground and ten of the first eleven finishers were drawn stall 16 or higher. At this time of year it certainly seems a high draw can be very advantageous.
To add some balance though, the last Victoria Cup to be run on truly soft ground was in 2012 and the first four places were all filled by horses drawn 8 or lower, so we can’t be 100% sure high draws will be favoured.
Looking at the individual stall data it seems either very low or very high is often the place to be. Sorted by PRB3, which takes an average including the stalls either side of each gate, the top eleven performers are either 20+ or 5 or lower. Perhaps it’s just far easier to get a run if you are drawn on a flank.
Pace
Now let’s examine pace here at 7f.
This is probably the fairest data you will find over any course and distance, with no more than 3.2% between any of the run styles according to the place data, which considers more data than any other metric here. Racing prominently gives the best place percentage on this sort of ground (20.59%) whilst front runners do least well (17.39%). There is no surprise that front running is the least effective tactic here given it’s a straight, stiff 7f and we are only looking at big fields.
Both front runners and prominent racers produce a level stakes profit if backed each way, whilst mid division and held up produce a loss. There is clearly a slight overestimation of the effectiveness of the more patiently ridden types, who have perhaps caught the eye elsewhere finishing well.
Victoria Cup Pace Map
Given the even pace data we have, the pace map for this race could tell us which runners are likely to be most advantaged by the run of the race.
There is potentially pace spread evenly across the track but there isn’t a lot of it. Marshal Dan tends to lead and he is drawn in stall 3 whilst Jack’s Point (12) usually leads or slots in close to the leaders and Sunset Breeze, drawn highest of all, could take the high numbers into the race. None of the above are absolute trailblazers though and this race isn’t guaranteed to be run at a breakneck pace which could compromise the chances of those that come from the back or perhaps those who are better at a mile than 7f.
Draw and Pace Combination
One last thing to look at before we go through the runners. The draw and pace combination heat map shows us the best run styles for each draw, and the best draws for each run style.
It seems as though those that are drawn low are best off ridden as patiently as possible, with a very respectable PRB of 0.60 for low drawn hold ups. Prominent rides also do well from low draws but front runners from both low or middle seemingly do much less well than high drawn front runners.
Hold up performers drawn in the middle seem to perform a little below par. This makes sense as they either have to go through the most traffic or switch wide to get a clear run. Either way it's a disadvantage.
Meanwhile all run styles from a high draw overperform, with mid division or a prominent run style most favoured.
The Runners
In this section I will analyse the chances of the main competitors, whilst also pinpointing a few at bigger prices who might outrun their odds.
Acquitted
One I fancied to go well last week in the Thirsk Hunt Cup on the strength of his Spring Mile 2nd but he was withdrawn as the ground was too fast. To go over that Spring Mile form again, seven of the first nine home have run since and all but one of those has finished at least 2nd giving it a really strong look.
He’s handicapped to win a good race and the drop back to 7f here shouldn’t inconvenience, he’s a smooth enough traveller who has looked like winning a furlong out on a couple of occasions only to be caught close home.
There is a ground question mark though. He’s been withdrawn on fast ground and has won on heavy so most will assume he wants it soft. However when he won on heavy it was only a maiden and the jockey said he didn’t enjoy the ground. He flopped on soft ground here at Ascot last season, admittedly over 10f which was too far, but Hugo Palmer has also recently stated that he probably doesn’t want it softer than good. There is a fair chance this could be too soft for him in a race this competitive. Should be well drawn in 20.
Fox Champion
Back to form last time out having been gelded and switched yards over the winter. Ralph Beckett has a really strong record with horses he receives from other yards so whilst he could be expected to improve after 168 days off the track, that improvement might not be forthcoming.
He’s well handicapped on his old form and runs off the same mark as when a creditable 3rd in a strong enough handicap at Haydock last time but the ground is a bigger question mark for this runner than it is Acquitted. Fox Champion has run three times on ground that is good to soft or softer outside of novice company and he’s barely beaten a rival home in all three runs. Stall 2 could be a positive but also potentially a negative.
Raising Sand
Nine year old course specialist who has had fifteen of his last eighteen runs here. He’s arguably better over this 7f than a mile (last two wins have come over this distance and off higher marks than his mile wins) and his 7f record at Ascot away from fast ground reads 431410.
This will be his first run of the season but Jamie Osbourne’s runners in the past month that have returned from a 60+ day break have outperformed his runners who have had a run so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.
He has run relatively poorly on three of his last four starts though and it could be age is catching up with him. He did run well first time out last season in the Royal Hunt Cup, finishing 8th in a strong renewal and doing best of those drawn low. He’s also dropped to his last winning mark and has the useful Saffie Osbourne claiming 7lbs. She had a winner and a 4th on the straight track from two rides here recently. Potentially well drawn but might benefit from a stronger pace than seems likely.
Chiefofchiefs
A surprise winner of last season’s Wokingham here and followed that up with a staying on 4th back here over 7f in July. He’s now 1lb lower than that most recent effort here and although he has a mixed record on softer ground, he stayed on extremely well in soft at Doncaster in November over 6f proving he copes with this at the very least.
He reappeared at Doncaster in good enough form, getting a luckless passage again at listed level over 6f, looking in need of further or a stiffer track. Not badly handicapped and most things in his favour here but he’d want them to go hard up front and being drawn in the middle isn’t great for one that likes to be dropped out. He’ll need plenty of luck but is capable of running very well.
Motakhayyel
Winner of the Buckingham Palace Stakes last season so this course and distance is no problem for him. He followed that up with a win in the Bunbury Cup from Sir Busker, who has rated 9lbs higher since. He wasn’t in the same form in two more starts later in the season, not as effective over a mile but the distance not solely to blame.
Returned in good enough form this season when runner up to Toro Strike at Thirsk but almost certainly not quite running to his lofty mark of 111 on that occasion. He brings form figures of 12112 at 7f into this and should win a decent race this season but might not want it as soft as it ends up here if the forecast rain hits.
Escobar
The highlight of his ten runs at Ascot was a success in the Balmoral Handicap in 2019, beating Lord North. His only two runs here since have come in Group 1 company. He ran well on his last two course and distance runs, seemingly finding the test a bit sharp on both occasions.
He has been largely out of form until finishing 3rd last time out at Haydock. That race lacked depth though and he needs to improve again to feature here. He’ll be of more interest in the Royal Hunt Cup next month.
Jumaira Bay
Relatively lightly raced, from a powerful yard and lots of interesting form angles. He started last season with a close 2nd to Nugget, who is now rated 21lbs higher (Jumaira Bay is now just 11lbs higher). On his next start he was 3rd to 2 runners who have won off higher marks since and perhaps his most interesting piece of form was his 2nd at York on his third run last season. He was just a short head behind Brunch (now rated 16lbs higher) and Jumaira Bay is only 5lbs higher than that effort.
He didn’t react well to cheekpieces later that season but seemed to take to blinkers better, firstly staying on well from an impossible position at Kempton over a mile to finish 3rd and then finishing a close 2nd in heavy ground at Newbury over 7f, ridden more prominently on that occasion.
There is a lot to suggest he’s well handicapped still but it’s disappointing he wasn’t able to win a handicap last season, for all he bumped into some well handicapped runners. He’s been gelded since and sports no headgear here so is perhaps considered more the finished article now. He needs to go up in the weights to get into any of the Royal Ascot handicaps so should be ready to go first time up.
Keyser Soze
Won for the first time in over two years last time out over course and distance, mastering a well handicapped runner late on. He’s up just 2lbs but this race is much tougher and he was very well placed in that contest. He’s not necessarily one you’d trust to follow up and has generally been best suited by decent ground so any extra rain is probably a negative.
River Nymph
A difficult runner to weigh up. He looked a big improver last summer when bolting up in two 7f handicaps. The first came over course and distance and the second when beating two subsequent winners.
His form in two runs since has been far less impressive though. He flopped badly in the Balmoral Handicap in October and didn’t run well in the Lincoln this season either. On both occasions it looked more than the distance that beat him which is worrying. If he came here off the back of his last win he’d be a very warm order but for all he could bounce back and bolt up, he’s extremely risky in his current form. Conditions in his favour though.
Sunset Breeze
Some excellent form to his name. Ran Double Or Bubble within a head over course and distance in September and that horse absolutely bolted up at Newmarket on his next start. Then bumped into A well handicapped Tranchee (now rated 14lbs higher) at Doncaster. He’s proven on soft and over 7f but yet to prove he’s truly suited by 7f on soft, possibly a little speedy for this sort of contest. Undoubtedly well handicapped and probably well drawn too in stall 29.
Symbolize
He’s run well enough in three goes here on soft ground, finding the mile trip a bit far on his last attempt in the Balmoral Handicap. Nothing wrong with his reappearance when 2nd (well positioned) behind easy and progressive winner but difficult to make a case for him being well handicapped off a mark of 103. Probably well drawn but looks the type to finish just outside the places.
Karibana
Progressive last season and still room for improvement. Doesn’t necessarily need to improve as his last 2nd has worked out well with the winner and 3rd both successful on their next starts. Big field scenarios suit but he has never raced on anything softer than good, which seems by design. The sire was a heavy ground winner and several of his offspring have won on heavy so there is hope he’ll cope with dig in the ground. Richard Hughes’ runners have a PRB of 0.59 in handicaps in the past 30 days and that goes up to 0.69 if only looking at runners having their first run in 60+ days so he should be ready to go and stall 18 should be fine.
Walhaan
Runner up to River Nymph over course and distance last summer, beaten two lengths but not seen to anywhere near best effect. Ran well again here over a mile behind Tempus a couple of runs later, probably didn’t stay in the Cambridgeshire and then below par on heavy ground on his final run of the season. Capable off this mark but took a couple of runs to get going last season. It's also worth mentioning this will be his debut for James Tate, who has a respectable PRB of 0.5 and a win strike rate of 16.67% with runners making their debuts having joined from other stables in the past five years according to the Trainer Change report.
Greenside
Invariably runs well in defeat in these big handicaps. He was 2nd in a big field here over 7f on soft in October 2019 and then 3rd in the Balmoral Handicap last season but Marco Ghiani claimed 7lbs and 5lbs respectively in those races and now claims just 3lbs. He can run respectably again but difficult to see him winning.
On A Session
In good form in both runs for a new yard this year, 2nd in the Lincoln Trial and then 4th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Was well placed in both but that latest run came on ground that would have been plenty fast enough. He’d have a serious chance based on his most recent run over 7f on soft ground and looks overpriced from a potentially good draw with the likelihood he’ll be well placed yet again.
Ropey Guest
Has run some good races here in the past and was half a length behind Symbolize in the Jersey Stakes last season. He’s 5lbs better off here so whilst Symbolize has already proven his well being this season, Ropey Guest has every chance of finishing in front of that rival here. He’s one that could outrun his odds from what’s probably a good draw having been gelded over the winter.
Cold Stare
A massive eyecatcher at Redcar on seasonal debut on ground that would have been far too fast. Below par last time out (again on fast ground) but that’s no great surprise. He’s run poorly over course and distance three times on fast ground but was 7th two seasons ago here on soft and that came off a 9lb higher mark. He won off the mark and it’s a case of the softer the better for him. Slight question mark over stall 5 though, for all it has a decent record.
The Verdict
Where do you start? There’s the more progressive ones such as Acquitted, Jumaira Bay, Sunset Breeze and Karibana, all of whom ran well on their latest starts. Then there’s the course specialists Raising Sand, Chiefofchiefs and to a certain extent Greenside. There’s also On A Session who seems to have a lot in his favour, but he appeals more as a place only bet than an each way.
Raising Sand appeals most of the more exposed ones. He has pretty much everything in his favour here, it’s just a question of how much ability still remains at the age of 9. If he can reproduce his 2019 form he’d have an excellent chance but there has to be a little doubt about that.
It’s possible the ground could get too soft for Acquitted and he still has to prove himself at this trip so despite looking very well handicapped he’s too much of a risk at the price. Sunset Breeze and Karibana still need to prove 7f on soft ground is for them so they too are reluctantly passed over, for all Sunset Breeze has won on soft and has gone close over 7f. It may well seem stupid to have gone against him once the race has been run.
JUMAIRA BAY seems overpriced though in this at around 18/1 at the time of writing. Roger Varian knows how to get more out of these 4yo handicappers and he demonstrated several pieces of strong form last season that suggest he’s well handicapped still. He’s interesting having been gelded with the headgear taken off. Ray Dawson has won three of his last seven races at Ascot, including one of these big 7f handicaps last season so that’s a bonus too. There have to be some doubts about stall 11 but Roger Varian did win the last renewal of this race with Cape Byron who broke from stall 10.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Barney-Roy.jpg311830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-05-07 10:36:282021-05-07 10:36:28Victoria Cup Preview: Roger Varian Fancied For Back To Back Success
Where once there was meaningful rivalry, now there is renewed omnipotence. A picture spread through social media early this year of a grinning trainer talking on a mobile phone atop a dead horse has had even more effect than its horrified recipients throughout the horse world could have imagined, writes Tony Stafford.
Up until Cheltenham, the remnants of the Gordon Elliott stables, which had run 321 horses from the time jump racing resumed after the initial stopping through Covid19, was still punching most of its weight under the name if not the supreme control of Mrs Denise Foster.
Traditionally though, every late April/early May the Punchestown Festival has ended any wistful hope that the brash Elliott with his legion of major owners, most notably the O’Leary family’s Gigginstown House Stud, might finally gain a first Irish NH trainers’ championship.
Last week, respectable second place seemed a long way off, that eminence supplanted by the exploits of Henry De Bromhead, he of the surreal Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup and Grand National hat-trick over the previous six weeks.
But now we were in Willie Mullins territory and the week was just perfectly situated to welcome back the trainer’s previously stricken stable jockey. Paul Townend had seen his advantage over the challenging and seemingly unstoppable Rachael Blackmore slip to less than a handful of winners with seven days to go.
Mullins doesn’t do Cross-Country races, of which there are four over the five days of Punchestown, but he does do everything else. And how!
Eight races are staged each day, leaving 36 to go for. Mullins, with five on the opening day and never fewer than three on the four succeeding instalments, put together the unbelievable tally of 19 wins from the available 36 – so more than 50%. He did have 87 runners, very often multiple chances, then, and another 21 of his horses made the first four, that’s 40 win or placed. Place money at the meeting goes down to sixth and he had another ten of those, so altogether 50 in the money.
In all, Mullins’ runners brought back a total haul over the week of €1,470,950. For the season his 182 winners brought almost €5.5 million.
Elliott’s monetary reward for his 155 wins was €2,863,875 at the time of his suspension. Add to that Mrs Foster’s 16 victories in 205 runs from 135 of the Elliott horses was another €412,860.
But the magic which initially lingered after the paper – if not actual – change of control all but died last week. Mrs Foster’s 36 runners at Punchestown brought no wins, three second places, two thirds and a single fourth and a mere total of €52k. Nineteen of her runners either finished outside the first ten or failed to finish.
You would think that everyone associated with the Closutton steamroller would have been delighted, but what was probably the most spectacular of his victories, in terms of style of performance and the circumstances behind it, was a cause of regret for that horse’s connections.
When Mark Smith first moved to his present house in Essex 40 years ago the one-time Foreign Exchange trader met a neighbour who was soon to become his best friend. Mark owned Balasani, a horse that won the Stayers’ Hurdle for Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival, and soon he and his friend, John Coleman, regularly went racing together.
Then a few years back John became gravely ill with cancer by which time he had bought Klassical Dream. Sadly he was never able to see the horse on the track – it raced in the name of his widow Joanne but was a family horse with his two sons and a nephew taking shares. They insisted that Mark should also accept a share.
It was bitter-sweet for the team when Klassical Dream won his maiden hurdle first time up at Leopardstown’s St Stephen’s Day fixture in 2018 and he duly went on to take three Grade 1 prizes, at Leopardstown in February, Cheltenham’s Supreme Novice, and Punchestown’s Champion Novice Hurdle.
The 2019/20 season proved a massive anti-climax, the ante-post Champion Hurdle favourite racing only twice and beaten at odds-on behind less talented stable companions. Cheltenham 2021 was originally on the agenda but that came and went without him, after which the plan was laid for Thursday’s big stayers’ hurdle over three miles. Klassical Dream had never raced over much further than two miles and would have a 487-day absence to overcome.
Mark spoke to Willie a few days before the race and on Thursday morning before leaving home for a funeral of another good friend he tried unsuccessfully to reach the trainer. Mullins left a recorded message when he could and Mark says it was very similar to the previous one.
I’ve heard it and in it Willie says he would be happy if the horse finished in the first six but above all the priority is that he comes home sound. Mark interpreted this to mean the trainer wasn’t sure he would make the first six.
Mark relayed the news to the other owners, and before leaving had what he calls a “suicide throwaway 50 quid” at around 17-1 when he first noticed the price was dropping. He had expected to be home in time to watch the race, but was still at the reception at the off, so watched it on his phone.
In what was described as the biggest gamble of the week, 20-1 down to 5-1, Klassical Dream under Patrick Mullins, and one of four stable-mates in the race, cantered into the lead going to the last hurdle and drew easily clear of Mullins’ James Du Berlais for a nine-length victory.
There was more than a degree of consolation that the horse had come back with such a bang, and not least for winning the €147,500 winner’s prize, but also some irritation that the message might have been a little more accurate.
These words will be written before Mark and the trainer have their next conversation. “I knew I shouldn’t talk to Willie, who has always been so helpful in all our dealings, as I would probably have lost my temper. None of the other owners are racing people in the way John was and of course I am, and their delight at their horse coming back in such a dramatic manner easily outweighs for them any irritation that they might have had a bigger bet if they knew a bit more beforehand”.
The Irish dominated Cheltenham and Aintree and it was the Flat trainers from that side of the wet divide who collected the first two Classics of the season at Newmarket.
First Jim Bolger, 79, and jockey and son-in-law Kevin Manning, 54, took the 2,000 Guineas with brave home-bred Poetic Flare, 16-1 and a son of Dawn Approach, also a Bolger home-bred and winner of the same Classic.
Then yesterday, Aidan O’Brien, a pupil and amateur rider for Bolger before embarking on his own stellar training career, made it seven wins in the 1,000 Guineas. His second string 10-1 shot Mother Earth, ridden by 50-year-old Frankie Dettori, made use of her greater experience to run past long-time race favourite and stable-companion Santa Barbara.
Like Love last year, who came to the “1,000” with three wins from seven juvenile appearances, Mother Earth put in plenty of creditable runs at two but in her case for just one win, although second at the Breeders’ Cup was hardly a negligible effort.
Unlike Love, though, who went on to Epsom and then York for two more emphatic wide-margin Group 1 victories, Mother Earth is being pencilled in for the Irish 1,000. Santa Barbara, who understandably showed signs of greenness - she raced only in one maiden as a two-year-old – goes straight to Epsom.
It was quite a weekend for big numbers and veterans. Bob Baffert, now 68 years old, made it a seventh Kentucky Derby when Medina Spirit, at just over 12-1, made all under John Velazquez, who is in his 50th year. The colt had won only once previously too, so it was stretching credibility after three defeats that he could win the most important three-year-old race of the year in the USA.
But it was even more amazing given that two runs back, in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, Medina Spirit had been crushed by eight lengths by another Baffert colt, Life Is Good, who was unable through injury to get to Churchill Downs.
The old prototype for winning the “Run For The Roses” was plenty of race-conditioning as a two-year-old, but Medina Spirit didn’t appear until January this year. That was also the starting-point for Life Is Good. That day, Medina Spirit came up short by only three-quarters of a length and he must have been energised when he noticed that his nemesis was not in the field.
Still pictures of the race finish show the Churchill Downs grandstands were packed. I just can’t wait for that to happen here - sooner rather than later I trust!
It’s been a good couple of weeks for this column, not only in terms of finding the winner but also in predicting which horses will run well or not so well. The Geegeez data has been a huge help, as always, particularly with figuring out which trainers have their strings firing first time out and which are needing a run. Don’t forget, you can get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1, just click here to take advantage of that offer.
The eyes are immediately drawn to Newmarket this weekend with the first classics of the season. As a punter that generally enjoys handicaps more than anything else the Suffolk Stakes, run over Newmarket’s 9f would ordinarily be a race I’d be very interested in. However there is a slightly disappointing turnout for the race this year and a much stronger field seems to have assembled for the Thirsk Hunt Cup, which will be run at 2.40pm on Saturday over a mile and be shown on ITV. Thirsk doesn’t often reach a terrestrial audience so let’s look at their feature handicap, with the help of the Geegeez Gold suite of tools and data.
Draw
A maximum field of 16 are set to go to post so any potential draw bias is likely to be seen to maximum effect here.
The data above reveals a slightly surprising disadvantage for lower drawn runners. It’s surprising because they are going around a bend, and the lower drawn participants should, in theory, find it easier to get a better position. However it seems that either the ground closer to the rail is slower, or the runners on the inside struggle to get a clear run. Perhaps even a combination of the two.
A low draw PRB of 0.43 is very low for what should be a pretty fair course. It’s not necessarily a case of needing to be drawn as high as possible though, middle draws have a PRB of 0.53 and high draws have a PRB of 0.54 so it’s pretty even between the middle and high draws.
The win percentages suggest a middle draw is superior to a high draw but the win data has the smallest sample size. When you look at place data, which gives us three to four times more data, the high draws narrowly beat the middle draws (place percentage of 27.78% compared to 25.77%), backing up the PRB data.
The individual stall data should give us further insight here.
The above data is sorted by PRB3, which takes an average of the individual stall and the stalls either side in order to smooth the curve. What it seems to show is the absolute ideal draw is either 11 or 12. These stalls of PRB3 scores of 0.58 and 0.55. What is pretty clear from this data is that a double figure draw is a big advantage over a single figure draw.
Only one single digit stall makes it into the top eight using the PRB3 data and that’s stall 7 which is obviously one of the higher single digit stalls.
Five of the six worst PRB3 figures belong to the lowest five stalls which is a big worry for anything drawn very low. Stalls 6 and 7 have individual stall PRBs of 0.56 and 0.55, which are good, so it seems being drawn higher than five is hugely preferable.
Pace
Will there be as strong a pace bias as there seems to be a draw bias?
There appears to be a fairly strong pace bias, favouring those who are nearer the head of affairs early on. There isn’t much difference in the data between being prominent or racing in mid division but front runners are clear best here with a win percentage of 10.14% and place percentage of 30.43% compared to held up which is clear worst with a win percentage of 4.44% and place percentage of 16.83%.
The drop off in performance between mid division and held up is quite remarkable. The place percentage for mid division is 23.48% and that falls to just 16.83% for held up.
In the same way you don’t want to be in the lowest five stalls here, you also probably don’t want to be amongst the most patiently ridden five or so runners.
Pace Map
The pace map for this year’s Thirsk Hunt Cup will help us judge how strong a pace bias there could be in this individual race.
There is unlikely to be a strong gallop on with just Al Erayg as a recognised pace setter. This means that the course bias towards those nearer the pace is likely to stand up here and coming from way back could be extremely difficult.
There aren’t many in the field that seemingly want to be dropped out in rear. Queen’s Sargent and Hortzadar appear most likely to be the backmarkers early on in this.
Pace and Draw Combination
The pace and draw combination heat map may show us that a low draw isn’t a death sentence if a horse is ridden a particular way and that a higher draw isn’t that great with certain rides.
The first surprise here is that despite front runners doing well here, this actually appears to be the worst kind of ride to give a front runner. Not good news for Al Erayg! There doesn’t seem to be much difference between riding low drawn runners prominently, in mid division or holding them up in rear.
If you are going to be held up, a higher draw is a slight advantage according to the heat map but not as much of an advantage as with any other run style. Presumably as they end up at the back of the field and on the rail wherever they were drawn.
If drawn in the middle, it pays to be ridden prominently with an impressive PRB of 0.61. Mid division is next best for the middle draws with front running tactics and hold up rides slightly sub optimal.
For those drawn higher, the PRB of 0.69 for front runners really stands out. Hartswood could potentially try to lead from stall 12 but he’s more likely to track the leaders and there are no other real high drawn candidates to lead so that piece of data may end up irrelevant in this race. Mid division for high draws also has a high PRB (0.60) ahead of prominent and then held up.
Anything drawn fairly high or likely to be ridden positively should be marked up in this.
The Runners
Here are the protagonists, in early odds order.
Astro King
Lightly raced 4yo representing Sir Michael Stoute. He only made his debut as a 3yo so should still be improving at a good rate in his second season of racing. He found the combination of 10f and soft ground too much on handicap debut back in October and enjoyed the drop back to this trip in November at Lingfield, winning narrowly but decisively. He resumed racing earlier this month in similar form winning at Nottingham off a 2lb higher mark.
He's gone up 6lbs for that victory, despite winning by just a short head, but there is plenty of strength to this form. The runner up, Finest Sound, won on his next start and the 3rd, Nugget, won the Spring Cup at Newbury next time out.
He's unbeaten in three runs at less than ten furlongs, has really solid form, looks to still be improving, is ideally drawn in stall 11 and has the ideal prominent racing style for a middle draw. It will take a big performance to beat him.
Nugget
Closely matched with Astro King on Nottingham form. He was slightly unlucky in that race but still only beaten 1.75 lengths and he’s 1lb better off here. He won convincingly at Newbury on his next start, being other lightly raced, in form rivals giving that form a strong look. He’s gone up 5lbs for that but certainly looks one to still be interested in.
He's fairly flexible tactically but looks most likely to be held up in rear or mid division. That, combined with his low draw in stall 4, certainly seems to swing things in favour of Astro King if deciding between the pair.
Acquitted
Another lightly raced 4yo, as you tend to find near the head of the betting in this sort of contest. Last season ended with a relatively poor run at Sandown in July and he was gelded shortly after. He returned in good form though with a 2nd in the Spring Mile, the Lincoln consolation.
That form has worked out well and a 1lb rise underestimates Hugo Palmer’s runner. Artistic Rifles, just a head ahead of Acquited, came out and won by 4.5 lengths. The 3rd home was beaten just half a length this week at Ascot whilst the 5th, 8th and 9th have all finished 2nd since and the 6th has come out and won. He’s handicapped to win a decent race but is drawn lower than ideal here in stall 5. He’ll race prominently which will help his situation but the draw has to be a concern, for all he should still run well.
Tom Collins
Inconsistent performer making his debut for William Haggas, having been bought for 100,000gns by son Sam Haggas last autumn. He ran well on his only start on good to firm last season but both his wins to date have come on soft ground, including on his last run when victorious over a mile at Pontefract. The runner up from that contest, Dashing Roger, is now rated 12lbs higher and the 3rd has won twice since so he’s perhaps underestimated by a 5lb rise for all he’ll face very different conditions here.
He's been gelded since and is bred to be smart and to improve with age. He’s well drawn in 13 but his best runs have come when held up which might make his task difficult here if those tactics are repeated. Don’t be surprised if he goes down in trip this season and he’d be very interesting dropped in trip on softer ground.
On A Session
Ran well on his return and stable debut in the Lincoln Trial to finish 2nd but that form hasn’t worked out well and he was well placed in that race. He has strong big field form from Ireland but in six runs on either good or good to firm ground he’s beaten just 24 out of a possible 87 rivals. All three of his wins have come with cut in the ground and if there isn’t much rain this could be a tough task.
Hartswood
Seasonal debutant for Richard Fahey who has a PRB of 0.46 with all handicap runners in the past 30 days and a PRB of 0.33 with runners returning from a 60+ day break in handicaps in the past 30 days, suggesting improvement for this run is likely. He’s well drawn in stall 12, can race prominently and won on his only previous run here as a 2yo. He also ran in some top handicaps last season, particularly at York, including at the Ebor meeting when runner up to Brunch who has since finished 2nd in the Lincoln off a 9lb higher mark. Hartswood is only 3lbs higher here.
He ran well fresh last year but the trainer form is a slight concern, otherwise he’s capable of running well. Assuming he does improve for the run, he’s one to look out for in the mile handicap at the Dante meeting at York in a few weeks.
Hayadh
Winner of the last renewal of this race in 2019 and 3lbs higher here. Improved from his seasonal debut last time when a close 4th at Redcar. He was well drawn on that occasion and that was a much weaker race than this. He often races prominently but has been ridden with more patience on his two starts this season, perhaps with this target in mind. He's drawn lowest of all in stall 1 though, whereas he won a weaker renewal of this two years ago from stall 10. Needs to improve to land this.
Jean Baptiste
Runner up on both starts this season, both times beaten by lightly raced and well handicapped rivals. He deserves a change in luck but isn’t going to be bumping into less well handicapped rivals in this and although he’s seemingly well drawn in 16, he’s often patiently ridden which might not be the best tactics here. He’s gone up 1lb for his two recent defeats which is fair and he’ll win a decent enough race soon but this might be too deep.
Hortzadar
A surprise 3rd in the Lincoln at 66/1 and then was unsuited by a slow pace and poor position at Newmarket next time out. He was 3rd over course and distance in July but that was off a 6lb lower mark and he needs to improve at the age of 6 to win a race this competitive off a mark of 97, having previously won off a mark no higher than 94 and being defeated in eight races off marks of 95 or more.
Queens Sargent
A steady improver over the years and one of the subsequent winners from the Spring Mile. He’s 4lbs higher now, taking him to a career high mark of 90 and on the face of it he’d have difficulty reversing form with Acquitted who was 2 lengths in front of him at Doncaster with that rival also now 3lbs better off. Given his run style, which generally sees him settled in the rear, you’d think he wouldn’t be suited to this course but his course record actually reads 2131. Three of those runs (including both wins) came over 7f and he does seem better at that distance having been beaten on all four runs at a mile. He was only beaten 0.75 lengths on his only course and distance run but that was off a 9lb lower mark in a weaker race. He might outrun his odds but he’ll be of much more interest back here over 7f.
Al Erayg
The likely pace in the race and he’s run well on two occasions here. He’ll be making his seasonal debut for Tim Easterby who has a PRB of 0.46 with all handicap runners in the past 30 days and a PRB of 0.43 with runners returning from a 60+ day break in handicaps in the past 30 days, suggesting he can be expected to resume racing in decent enough form. He also won on seasonal debut last year. Backing leaders here can be very profitable but Al Erayg’s best form is with plenty of cut in the ground and he’s never won off a mark this high.
Scottish Summit
He's already managed three runs this season and has run respectably each time, not beaten far in two of those. He has no excuses last time out and doesn’t seem well enough handicapped now to take this having been hit hard by the handicapper for a comfortable success at Newmarket last September. Stall 3 makes life difficult too.
Byron’s Choice
Making his seasonal debut for Michael Dods who has a PRB of 0.56 with all handicap runners in the past 30 days and a PRB of 0.51 with runners returning from a 60+ day break in handicaps in the past 30 days, suggesting he should return in good enough form. All his wins have come over shorter and he's 5lbs higher than when unplaced over course and distance last season. Stall 6 is okay but he’s very difficult to make a case for off this mark at this distance.
Global Spirit
Ran as though needing the run last time out at Redcar when behind Hayadh. He was half a length behind course specialist Queens Sargent over 7f here in 2019 and is is now 2lbs better off so he’s closely matched with that rival here, for all that form goes back a bit. His run style can be difficult to anticipate as he has been prominent and held up in recent starts but if he’s not given too much to do here he could definitely outrun his odds. He might not be well enough handicapped to place in a strong race like this but look out for him slightly down in grade, perhaps at York or Haydock. He seems to run particularly well around a left hand bend and if he fails to place here it will be the first time he has done so on good or better ground around a left hand bend on turf in seven runs.
Storting
Spent most of his career racing over further. He didn’t settle last time out when running okay at Newbury and probably isn’t badly handicapped. He may well find this too sharp a test on fastish ground at a mile though and he might not be ideally placed given how this seems likely to be run.
Waarif
Ran poorly on seasonal debut over a couple of furlongs further (has form at that trip) after a 531 day break. David O’Meara’s runners generally have been improving for the run season but after such a long absence it’s possible he’ll need more than one run to get fit and at the age of 8, after a layoff, he might just have lost his ability. He’d have a chance on his best form but there is every chance he’ll never rediscover that.
Verdict
Queen’s Sargent and especially Global Spirit are capable of running well at big prices but the market principles will have to underperform for one of those more exposed runners to win. I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off a place only bet on Global Spirit who seems best in big fields around a left handed bend.
Jean Baptiste could run well but his run style probably prohibits him from winning given others look better handicapped and Hartswood would be more interesting if he’d already had a run this season.
Unoriginally the three most interesting runners for this race are the three market leaders, Astro King, Nugget and Acquitted. The fact that ASTRO KING is so lightly raced, has such strong form, has a prominent racing style and crucially is so well drawn makes him a relatively confident selection for this.
Nugget and Acquitted have been done no favours by the draw but other than that look set to run well. The fact that Acquitted should be ridden more aggressively than Nugget makes him the next best for this and I’d have no hesitation in backing a forecast including both Astro King and Acquitted, maybe even including Nugget for a tricast despite his draw AND run style probably being negatives. He’s probably still well enough handicapped to overcome that to a certain extent, if he gets a clear run.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Wissahickon_Cambridgeshire.jpg316830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-04-30 11:30:242021-04-30 11:30:24Thirsk Hunt Cup Preview: Astro Set For Star Turn
If you logged into the geegeez racecards this morning and were surprised or confused by what you saw, sorry about that, and let me explain.
The video below highlights the four small (but highly visible) changes made, as do the words and pictures beneath the video - if you prefer to read than to watch.
Four small changes
Expandable / collapsible race meetings
We've tidied up the racecard menu page further by hiding all races behind their meeting header bar, as you can see below.
Clicking on a blue bar, for example, Naas, opens the races for that meeting:
Clicking the '+' or '-' buttons top left will expand all or collapse all meetings. Nice and tidy.
2. Added Irish racecourse info links
We've also added links to our Irish racecourse information pages. These are packed full of intel regarding course layout, draw or run style biases, top trainers and jockeys, upcoming races, recent results, latest news and more.
We now have these in place for all courses and I encourage you to check them out if you haven't already, especially for courses you're maybe less familiar with.
3. Mobile card menu tweaks
We've streamlined the mobile menu to provide more space in your device's 'viewport' for the actual race you're looking at. To do that, we simply removed some of the date buttons and placed them behind a dropdown.
As you can see below, things are a bit slicker now.
4. Added Race Conditions data
The sole 'new data' upgrade is the addition of race conditions information. This is found in the blue race bar on the right hand side. Clicking on that link reveals, inline, the conditions for the race. This is especially useful in non-handicap races where the weights horses carry are often a little confusing without such insight.
There is, as ever, more coming soon, so stay tuned!
Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/racecardmenuupgrades.png320830Matt Bisognohttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngMatt Bisogno2021-04-26 10:38:182021-04-26 10:38:18Geegeez Upgrades: 26th April 2021
The jumps season 2020/21 ended with controversy when the heavily-backed favourite Enrilo finished first past the post in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Park, but was disqualified and placed third after hanging left and hampering the challenging Kitty’s Light up the run-in, writes Tony Stafford.
Meanwhile, as newly-crowned champion Harry Skelton struggled to keep his mount straight, up the inside steamed the Alan King-trained Potterman. His spurt under Tom Cannon got him into a narrow second place just before the line and, following a lengthy stewards’ inquiry, Paul Nicholls and owners Martin Broughton and friends were left with a £52k shortfall as Enrilo was put back to third.
Nobody, least of all Alan King, believes Potterman deserved to pick up the money and it was almost in the Nureyev mould of verdict. Back in 1980 that French-trained son of Northern Dancer interfered with Posse some way from home when a hot favourite for the 2,000 Guineas, beat Known Fact by a neck, but afterwards he was disqualified and placed last by the stewards.
Posse had recovered well enough to finish third and while I’m sure owner Stavros Niarchos would not have been any less unhappy had a similar outcome to Saturday’s left Nureyev in the minor position, it had real reverberations at the time. Nureyev was due to return for the Derby but missed the race, never appeared again and was retired to stud, where he was a great success.
In those far off days I loved an ante-post punt – any punt really! – and had quite a chunk at 20/1 about Nureyev after his six-length debut victory in Paris the previous autumn. My memory in the interim had played its usual tricks, the recollection being that he’d won by far more than the actual margin. For the outrage to last well into this century as it did, he needed to have done so!
If the stewards of the BHA do not overturn the verdict at the appeal Paul Nicholls plans to lodge, it will not take too much gloss off the stellar seasons of either trainer or rider. Nicholls for now ends with 176 wins, five more than his previous best achieved in 2016/7. Skelton finished with 152, ten ahead of last year’s champion, Brian Hughes. A late flurry of winners, 17 in the final fortnight compared to five by his rival, clinched the deal with much more comfort than could ever have been predicted.
What did alter the dynamic was the readiness for Harry to accept more rides for outside stables. Of the 152 wins – not his best, he got to 178 when Richard Johnson had 201, his second double-century, but this was a delayed start due to Covid last summer – 136 were for Dan. Of the 558 mounts during the season, only 68 were for other trainers, yet in that last fortnight, six wins were hewn from 16 outside rides.
When Nick Skelton sent his two sons to learn their trade with Nicholls 15 or so years ago, he will have had lofty ambitions for them. One day, walking past Raymond Tooth’s Mayfair office, Nick bumped into the lawyer who at the time had a powerful team and indeed had already won his Champion Hurdle with Punjabi. “When are you going to send a horse for Dan to train?” asked Nick.
It was probably a couple of years on that Notnowsam, whose trainer Noel Quinlan was about to hand in his notice, arrived in the Skelton yard. A few days later, on May Bank Holiday Monday six years ago, he duly trotted up first time in a novice handicap chase, not a bad effort for a four-year-old.
Sadly Notnowsam proved much better at finishing second than winning after that bright start and when eventually he was sent to the sales, he was bought by Micky Hammond, for whom he was little short of a disaster.
At the time I hadn’t been aware of it, but later I learned that before Dan had arranged to collect Notnowsam he called Noel Quinlan to check that he was happy for the horse to leave and join him. “That’s a gentleman!” said a delighted former trainer, after the Warwick win.
This time of year always coincides with Punchestown and the conclusion of Ireland’s jump season. For four consecutive years I made the journey to Ireland and in 2009 drove via the ferry as Punjabi attempted a third successive win at the fixture.
As a juvenile in 2007 he was third in the Triumph Hurdle behind Katchit but won the Grade 1 juvenile race at Punchestown. The next year, he was again third to Katchit, this time in the Champion Hurdle before winning the Irish Champion at Punchestown.
After his win at Cheltenham in 2009 hopes obviously were high for the three-timer, but he missed the last hurdle when narrowly ahead and, in the testing ground, just failed to hold off the stayer Solwhit who got up on the line.
As I said, I’d driven over this time, and where I had to park the car, the ground was absolutely sodden. A few days later my ankle became very swollen and I ended up spending almost a week in hospital – my first since having my tonsils removed 56 years previously.
The diagnosis was that I’d probably been bitten by insects and the poison had got into my bloodstream so badly that I needed to be on a drip for the first few days of my stay. It was so frustrating because I’d wanted Nicky Henderson to try to win the Chester Cup. Punjabi had won the only two Flat races he ever contested since joining from previous trainer, Geraldine Rees. I’ve no idea if he’d have been good enough to win it but at the time my reasoning had been, we’ve already won twice over there, whereas winning the Chester Cup would always be special for an English owner.
Nicholls and the Skeltons will both be in action at Punchestown this week, but UK-trained raiders will hardly make a ripple, certainly nothing to compare with the steamrollering domination of the Irish at Cheltenham and Aintree.
Kim Bailey runs First Flow and Skelton Nube Negra in the William Hill Champion Chase tomorrow where the Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Put The Kettle On will be missing as she tried unsuccessfully to win at Sandown on Saturday. For once the raider was blown away as Nicholls’ new star, Greaneteen, a valiant Altior, and Sceau Royal all finished ahead of the mare.
In a seven-horse race, this still means the Queen Mother Chase’s beaten favourite, Chacun Pour Soi, will be out to repair his slightly-tarnished reputation on a day that Paul Townend’s title challenge enters a crucial stage.
Passed fit to ride after his recent injury, his absence has allowed Rachael Blackmore to get to within four as she seeks the first championship. Her list of achievements is already overwhelming, but a jockeys’ title would in terms of merit be the pinnacle. Willie Mullins isn’t making it that easy for Townend as his mount is only one of three in the race for the trainer in a field of seven and Blackmore retains the ride on her easy Ryanair Chase winner, Allaho. I reckon that horse’s stamina will have the Cheveley Park colours to the fore at the line.
The first handicap of the day, a 0-145 hurdle is a typical full field of 25 with reserves. Mullins has seven in that, including three that came over for the Festival, running respectively in the 0-155 County Hurdle, the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ race. What chance Gentleman De Mee, the beaten favourite who set up the Martin Pipe for stablemate Galopin Des Champs when making the running, will have his day in the sun tomorrow dropping back to two miles?
With 19 runners on the opening day then 42, 23, 22 and 40 entered for the rest of the week it might look a foregone conclusion that Townend will hold on. The snag with Mullins though is that there’s multiple entries in so many of these races and they are all “off for their lives” – “up to a point” as William Boot, the hero of Evelyn Waugh’s hilarious novel “Scoop” might say. And that is as it should be.
Not everyone thought that a certain race at Lingfield the other day was totally kosher. Last Wednesday, seven horses lined up for a mile and a half novice race and Polling Day, trained by John and Thady Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori, was the 2-9 favourite following a smooth debut win over the course a month earlier.
Also in the line-up for the Gosdens was 16-1 shot Stowell, a Nat Rothschild-owned son of Zoffany making his debut under Rab Havlin. In an almost comic-cuts exhibition, Havlin managed to get his mount to finish a close second when it looked from the sidelines that he should have won comfortably.
The post-race interview by the local stewards provided lengthy ammunition for the Racing Post comments writer who reported Havlin’s saying that Stowell is a fragile colt with a high knee action. He said John Gosden had instructed him not to use his whip but that he should be ridden to get the best possible position.
I’ve spoken to plenty of trainers and they are all adamant. One said: “If those two horses had been trained by me, I’d have been looking at a lengthy ban!” Have a look yourselves. Seriously, it can seem in racing there’s often one rule for the chosen few and another for everyone else.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Enrilo_bet365.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-04-26 08:37:152021-04-26 08:37:15Monday Musings: A Controversial End
We seem to be seeing lots of small fields at the moment which aren’t making great betting contests but the 2.50pm at Haydock on Saturday, a class 2 7f handicap being shown live on ITV, has 13 entries and looks to have a nice shape about it from a betting point of view.
A fairly big field, going around a bend, so let’s first take a look at the draw in this contest.
Looking initially at the low vs middle vs high data, It certainly seems as though a low draw is an advantage over middle or high. The most important data here is the PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) as every single runner in every single race is producing data for us with this metric. The low draw PRB is 0.53 whereas for middle and high draws it is 0.48.
Low draws also have the best win percentage but high draws actually have the best place percentage. This is likely a slightly quirk of the fact that we have a relatively small sample size of nineteen races.
Looking at low vs middle vs high is great for an instant insight but digging into the individual stall data should tell us where a good draws starts to become a bad draw.
By sorting this table by PRB3 we are combining individual stall data with the data from each stall either side in order to avoid any data anomalies from single stalls. The fact that the ‘best’ six stalls are the lowest six stalls is pretty telling here. However we should also note that stalls 11 and 12 score well enough to suggest that whilst a lower draw (bottom six stalls) is almost certainly some advantage, a high draw isn’t the end of the world.
Pace
Pace is another crucial aspect to cover over the 7f at Haydock on decent ground.
We once again have a fairly limited data set here so place percentage is going to be most enlightening for us in giving clues about a pace bias.
The place data tells us that front runners are most likely to place here, all other things being equal, and they’ve racked up a pretty decent 31.03% place strike rate. However going all the way back to those held up, there is still a 25% place percentage for the most patiently ridden runners. With a relatively small difference in results for the most extreme types of ride it seems that this is one of the fairer courses as far as pace biases go.
Prominent racers seem to have performed relatively poorly but there is no reason why this should be the case so it’s probably just a symptom of having relatively little data.
Pace Map
With there not being much of a pace bias here (if any) the pace for this individual contest is likely to have a bigger bearing on how much of an advantage early position is. This is where the Geegeez pace map can be particularly useful and a real time saver.
Potentially two pace angles here with Gobi Sunset seemingly most likely to go forward from his fairly wide draw and Marshall Dan likely to keep on honest on the front end from an even wider draw. There isn’t an abundance of prominent runners in this but Admirality seems most likely to track the pace with Fox Champion, Dreamloper and Duesenberg (if he can get across from his very wide draw) potentially slotting in behind Admirality.
Amongst those seemingly likely to be most patiently ridden and therefore reliant on a strong pace here could be Mustarrid, Dulas, Cold Stare and Sir Maximillian.
Pace and Draw Combination
Now that we’ve checked out the pace map for this race it makes sense use one of my favourite tools from the draw tab and that’s the pace and draw combination heat map.
Not all draws and run styles are created equally, both have an effect on each other. What we can see above is that low drawn runners do extremely well from mid division and much less well when prominently ridden. That could be a positive for Firmanent and negative against Dreamloper and Fox Champion if recent riding tactics are repeated.
Those drawn near the middle seem best suited to more aggressive tactics, be it front running or going prominent. The closer they are to the pace the better and that’s good news for the Mark Johnston trained Gobi Sunset is the most likely early leader and potentially bad news from Dulas, Another Batt and Persuasion.
Higher drawn runners do well by leading or racing in mid division, with prominent tactics and to a lesser extent hold up tactics resulting in lesser performances. This would be good for Marshall Dan if he can get to the lead and is a slight concern for Cold Stare and Si Maximillian.
The Runners
Here is the full field, in early odds order, most fancied to least fancied.
Dreamloper
Consistent, lightly raced performer for Ed Walker having her first run since 5th September. The first thing to check here is how Ed Walker’s runners have been performing first time out.
In the past 30 days Ed Walker has a win strike rate of 13.89%, a place strike rate of 41.67 and a PRB of 0.59 with all his runners, suggesting he is in pretty decent form. The above shows the same sample but only those who were returning from a 60+ day break. This now shows a 11.11% win percentage, 44.44% place percentage and a PRB of 0.61. Whilst the win percentage is down, we are dealing with a sample where one more winner would have increased that percentage dramatically. The fact that the place percentage and PRB figures are slightly better for fresh runners suggests there should be no issue with backing Ed Walker seasonal debutants at the moment.
So how does her form stack up? She’s only run once over this trip in a handicap and on that occasion he was 3rd at Kempton. The winner has done nothing for the form since but the runner up did win easily on her next course and distance start and subsequently went up 10lbs. She stepped up to a mile on his next start at Ascot and beat Perfect Inch by a neck off a 6lb lower mark. The runner up had looked well handicapped heading into that contest and is now rated 10lb than she was that day but she is difficult to win with. The 3rd home won two starts later (stepped up in trip).
She’s got a likeable profile and the fast ground will be perfect whilst she’s probably not badly handicapped. It’s slightly surprising to see her back at 7f though, other than for the fact she’s sometimes keen, and this is potentially a fact finding mission to decide if she heads for the Buckingham Palace Stakes (over 7f) or the Royal Hunt Cup (over 1m), although she’ll need to win in the next month or so to get a run in either. Likely to run well but might find one or two too good over this trip.
Persuasion
Charlie Hills’ relatively lightly raced 4yo was last seen finishing 2nd in heavy ground at Leicester, having started last season in the 2000 Guineas. He hasn’t run since October but like Ed Walker, Charles Hill’s seasonal debutants have been outperforming his race fit runners in the past 30 days. In fact his runners in handicaps in the past 30 days that are coming back from 60+ day breaks have a 45.45% strike rate at the time of writing which is very impressive and those winners have all been between 11/4 and 8/1.
The runner who beat Persuasion on his last start, Tomfre, finished the season with two wins in competitive Doncaster handicaps giving Persuasion’s form a solid feel, especially with the 3rd behind Tomfre and Persuasion finishing runner up on his next run.
The question here is the ground though. He barely beat a rival home on faster ground on his first two runs last season but one of those came in the 200 Guineas so is forgiveable and the next came when returning from a three month break, presumably having had an issue. As a 2yo he coped well enough with fast ground, he won a very strong maiden on good to firm at Goodwood beating at least three rivals now rated higher than him. If he copes with the ground here he’s a big threat.
Marshall Dan
Carried last season’s consistency into this season with a 2nd at Musselburgh three weeks ago on seasonal debut. He won over course and distance in September but that was on soft ground off a 9lb lower mark. He has form on faster ground too but he has seemed to improve for slower ground over the past year or so. The winner didn’t do anything for his last time out form when running next and in these conditions he looks more likely to finish around 4th or 5th than 1st. Drawn very wide too which won’t help.
Fox Champion
He's been largely out of form for some time now, although he did run okay over 6f on the all weather last summer before reverting to type back on turf on his next starts. His chance seems to largely hinge upon a change of scenery having brought him back to form. This will be his first run for the in form Ralph Beckett and he has a pretty amazing record in the past twelve months with runners who have come from other stables.
Beckett has won with a whopping 63.64% of his runners having their first run after joining from another stable in the past year. That’s 7 wins from 11 runners and if you were to ignore runners at 33/1+ that changes to 7 wins from 9 runners. Very impressive.
He's happy at 7f on fast ground so if he was able to bounce back he would potentially be a stone well in.
Gobi Sunset
Mark Johnston’s 4yo didn’t show much last season and was duly gelded and given a five month break. That seems to have done him the world of good as his form figures since are 2122. Those runs all came on the all weather but he won twice on fast ground on turf as a 2yo.
He has plenty of pace, he went off at a furious gallop over 6f two runs ago, finding only Dirty Rascal too good in the finish and Dirty Rascal won by 5 lengths on his next start. Last time out he once again found one too good, over 7f at Wolverhampton in a class 3 handicap. He’s clearly not badly handicapped and you can be pretty sure he’ll try and make all here. He’s been ridden by claimers on recent starts and perhaps Joe Fanning taking the mount will help ensure he gets the fractions right. He’s certainly capable but might just be vulnerable late on. Not a bad place bet at the very least though.
Firmanent
Consistent but ultimately difficult to win with. His best form generally comes at York but he was beaten just a short head at Doncaster over this trip late last season with a subsequent winner back in 3rd. He’s versatile regarding underfoot conditions and has often run well on seasonal reappearance. If he’s capable of defying a mark of 94 at the age of 9 it will probably be at York but he's entitled to run well enough.
Cold Stare
Twice a winner here and capable of this kind of mark but this horse wants the ground to be borderline unraceable. Having said that, he was an eyecatcher last time out on good to firm at Redcar over a furlong shorter and a repeat of that could see him go close but whether he can back that run up with another sound run on fast ground is open to debate. Certainly one to look out for when there is some cut in the ground soon.
Mustarrid
A wide margin winner of the same Nottingham race two years running but other than that hasn’t won since 2017. He seems at his best with plenty of give in the ground and although he does have form on faster ground, he also seems better at a mile. He has been outpaced over this course and distance on fast ground before and is likely to suffer the same fate again. Plenty of Ian Williams’ flat string are needing a run too it seems.
Admirality
A frustrating 7yo who has won just once in eighteen runs for Roger Fell but finished runner up on five occasions in that same period. He’s relatively versatile but is probably at his best over 7f on fast ground, his last nine turf runs on good or better at this distance have yielded form figures of 222133522. He won first time out two seasons ago but seemed to improve for the run last year. No seasonal debutant has even placed from this yard in the past 30 days from twelve runners which is a concern. He’s never one you can write off for a place but given the current trainer record and the horse’s difficulty getting his head in front he’s easily opposable for win purposes at the very least.
Another Batt
Had looked well handicapped on several occasions for previous trainers so no great surprise David Barron was able to get a win out of him on seasonal debut last year. That win was the first time the horse had even placed on good to firm ground and it perhaps left it’s mark with the horse not in the same form on his subsequent three runs. He’s run well enough on fast ground at this trip before off higher marks so can’t be ruled out because of the ground but we do have to take his wellbeing on trust. Stable are going okay first time up this season and not entirely dismissed for all he’s very risky.
Duesenberg
Taken well to Newcastle’s tapeta surface on his last two starts and was a winner over this distance last time out, getting up by a nose in a small field event. He’s 6lbs lower than when midfield in a good York mile handicap for 3yos last season but he’s often looked a bit paceless, despite winning last time dropped in trip. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he needs deep ground to show his best and he’s opposable here over this test.
Dulas
Was well enough thought of to start his 3yo campaign last season as 5/2 favourite in a pretty warm handicap but he was too keen and was well beaten. He ran much better dropped back to 6f at Newmarket on fast ground on his next start showing his mark wasn’t beyond him. He backed that up with another decent effort over 6f at Chelmsford, given no chance the way the race developed but making good late headway. He raced once since then, finishing well beaten and found to be lame afterwards. He’s been gelded since and seems to be the Charles Hills second string behind Persuasion. Wouldn’t be a big shock to see him run well.
Sir Maximillian
A second runner for Ian Williams and although he is relatively fit from racing on the all weather over the winter, he hasn’t run for 73 days so might need this given how some of Ian Williams’ are running after an absence. He was better than the bare form on a couple of occasions on artificial surfaces over the winter but never really threatened to win. He was in good form at this course last June in a hot contest and did win as an 11yo at Chester later in the summer. He’s going to find life difficult here from a wide draw but don’t be surprised if he gets his head in front again at Chester this season, a course where he has won four from nine and never run a bad race.
Verdict
This is a really wide open contest with some sort of question mark over most of the contenders. The only ones I’d be confident of ruling out for win purposes (not that they can’t run well) would be Firmanent, Mustarrid, Admirality, Duesenberg and Sir Maximilian.
I think Marshall Dan is worth opposing on this ground whilst Cold Stare and Another Batt would also prefer more juice so I wouldn’t rely on those.
Fox Champion is difficult to weigh up but Ralph Beckett’s stable change record gives real hope that this horse could bounce back. I still prefer to not back such regressive runners but if he wins we’ll all kick ourselves for not following such impressive trainer change stats.
That leaves Dreamloper, Persuasion, Gobi Sunset and Dulas.
Dreamloper would be a bet at a mile and should run well but dropping back in trip he’s short enough for me. Gobi Sunset has found one too good on three of his last four starts and seems pretty likely to run well again but won’t get an easy lead and is no more than a fair price.
That leaves the Charles Hills trained pair Persuasion and Dulas. Both are making their seasonal reappearances which is no negative based on the trainer form and both are well enough drawn in stalls 6 and 7 respectively. Dulas is an interesting contender and worth a win only saver but he’s already been a non runner twice in recent weeks which is a concern and he may well end up being keen stepping back up to 7f.
That leaves PERSUASION as the token selection in a fiendishly difficult contest. He was probably just out of form when not running well on faster ground last season having run so well on good to firm on his racecourse debut and his trainer is on record last season as saying he should be better on faster ground which helps confidence slightly. His full brother Qeyaadah, also preferred faster ground.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Haydock_DavidProbert.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-04-23 13:14:042021-04-23 13:16:47Charles Hills Has Strong Hand In Haydock Handicap
Last month I started a new series of articles looking at sires and damsires, writes Dave Renham. In the first two articles I looked at sires. You can read those here and here. Sires are the fathers of horses and we have seen in those preceding pieces that they have a significant influence on their offspring. In this third part, we will look for the first time at damsires – the sires (fathers) of the dams (mothers) of the respective horses. Or, if you prefer, the grandfather on the female side – sometimes known as maternal grandsires. I have never studied damsire data before so I will be learning new things as we go along, too!
Logic dictates, I suppose, that the influence of damsires is likely to be slightly less than sires simply because they are one step further back in the pedigree chain.
The data which follows is taken from 1st January 2011 through to 31st December 2020 (ten years) and all profit/loss has been calculated to Industry Starting Price. I have used a longer time frame because certain sires who are coming to the end of their stud career will still be influential as a damsire for several more years to come. The vast majority of the data has been sourced using the Geegeez Query Tool.
Firstly let's look purely at damsire data for this 10 year period using a minimum of runs to qualify. I have ordered by strike rate – these are top 50 in terms of strike rate:
As with sire data from my first report, it is rare - and almost always coincidental - for individuals to make a blind profit. However, nine of the 50 damsires in the above table are in profit, with the most impressive figures having been delivered by Authorized: he has a decent strike rate of over 15% excellent returns of around 62p in the £, and a strong A/E value of 1.17.
In this next table, I will compare a horse's overall strike rate as a sire compared with his overall strike rate as a damsire. I have always assumed these percentages should correlate fairly well (in other words, be very similar). It should be noted that some strong performing sires such as Frankel have yet to produce any runners as a damsire. Hence most of the horses in this comparison will have more runners in the future as a damsire than they will as a sire:
The 'D/S Ratio' columns are the ratio of the strike rate as a dam sire compared to that as a sire.
The strike rates for most of the horses are similar, as expected – although in general they are even closer than I had personally predicted. This will be useful when sires such as Frankel start having runners as a damsire.
Indeed, both the mean and median D/S Ratios are 1.04: we should have a very good idea of how these horses are going to perform over time.
Record of damsires in 2yo races
Using pedigree as an analysis tool can be especially useful in 2yo races where there is little or no form to go on. Below, then, is a table of the top 25 damsires of 2yos in terms of strike rate between 2011 and 2020 in the UK (minimum runs 150):
Once again, only a handful have made a blind profit to SP, and this of course is what one would expect. However, these are the damsires with the best strike rates over time which will still help to guide when analysing individual 2yo races.
For the remainder of the article I would like to drill down into the records of some individual horses in terms of their damsire data.
Authorized as a Damsire
Authorized was mentioned earlier as showing excellent profits on all his runners. Digging a little deeper, it is firstly worth noting that Authorized, when he raced, was a Derby winner in 2007 and was voted the European Champion 3yo Colt in the same year. Hence it should come as no surprise that he has become a successful sire and damsire. There are a few interesting damsire stats to share, starting with a comparison of turf performance compared with the all weather as the graph below indicates:
A difference of around eight percentage points, or nearly 90%. This is also reflected when we look at the respective A/E values, 1.32 vs 0.98:
Further, there is an apparently strong bias to male runners compared with female runners, colts and geldings winning 18.5% of races compared with just 8.7% for females.
Finally, there also appears to be a slight distance bias with runners who have Authorized as their damsire. The longer the distance the better, which is perhaps what should be expected of a Derby winner: once we get to 1m3f or more the win percentage increases fairly significantly (see graph below) to 20% from 14% for shorter trips.
Authorized is undoubtedly a damsire we need to keep an eye on in 2021.
Shamardal as a Damsire
Shamardal was a top notch performer before getting injured in 2005 after which he was retired. At that point he had raced seven times, winning six, of which four were Group 1 events. As a three-year-old he won at a mile and ten furlongs. As a juvenile, he had been voted the Champion European two-year-old.
His stud career has also been a decent one. As a sire, 62% of all his runners won at least one race in their careers – this percentage is very strong when compared with Frankel’s equivalent figure, which stands only marginally better at 64%.
As a damsire, Shamardal's record has been similar to his record as a sire. Although he died in 2020, as a damsire he will continue to have runners for many years to come. Indeed, in 2020, there were over 650 runs from horses of which he was the damsire.
After delving deeper into Shamardal’s record as a damsire, it is clear that he has been extremely consistent. One area where there may be a slight bias is when we look at the results by age of horse. He topped the 2yo figures earlier, and the graph below breaks this age data down:
As can be seen, juveniles of which he has sired the mother have comfortably the best record in terms of strike rate and below is a little more detail on this record, starting with 2yo data down by year:
Overall, Sharmadal’s damsire record in relation to two-year-olds has been highly consistent. He also boasts excellent A/E values in this context with seven of the eight years seeing a value of 1.00 or more. As a note of caution, 2019 was a poor year showing a fairly steep level stakes loss, for all that the strike rate remained around the average. Now let us split the 2yo data up to see if any patterns emerge in terms of distance:
His grandchildren have recorded slightly better strikes rate over 5f (21.5%) compared to six (19.3%) and seven (18.8%) but all three are very good; A/E values of 1.16, 1.17 and 1.08 back these up. His grand-progeny have been notably less effective at a mile or more (13.7%) – this seems to stretch the stamina of the 2yos in question.
Moving away from 2yo data and looking at his damsire data as a whole, the runners have a great record from the front. This may not come as a surprise as, when Shamardal was racing, he was a habitual front runner – of his seven career starts he made the running in ALL of them. As a damsire his runners have led in 365 races winning 98 of them – this equates to a strike rate of nearly 27% (roughly 9% above the norm). Indeed, in sprint races of 5 to 6f, the front running strike rate increases to nearly 33%.
Galileo as a Damsire
As a racehorse, Galileo won the Derby, the Irish Derby and the King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes in the same year (2001) and, overall, won six of his eight career starts. He has a similar record as a sire and a damsire, though slightly more influential in win strike rate terms as the first generation producer.
The first chart below shows performance of his grand-progeny by distance. As can be seen, the record improves as the distance increases:
His damsire record over five and six furlongs is poor with older aged runners – horses aged six or more - having won just three races from 69 over these sprint trips, equating to a loss of nearly 48p in every £1 bet. In fact age does seem a factor across the board. As a damsire his runners perform well at two and three; their strike rate dips at four and five, while aged six or older their performance really starts to drop off:
My last Galileo as damsire note relates to horses coming back from a long break, which have an excellent record. Horses returning off a break of six months or more have produced 68 winners from 369 runners (SR 18.48%) for a healthy profit to SP of £211.93 (ROI +57.59%).
Intikhab as a Damsire
The final sire I want to look at is Intikhab. On the track back in the late 1990s, Intikhab won eight of his 13 starts including the then Group 2 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in 1998. As a sire he has been extremely successful, with Snow Fairy the ‘star’ turn: she netted just £4million in prize money from her global exploits.
As a damsire also, Intikhab has some trends worth sharing. First, let's review his annual strike rates. It is important to appreciate that yearly stats can fluctuate:
Five of the ten years have seen strike rates around the 16% mark, whereas 2018 and 2019 were more modest at 10.1% and 11.3% respectively. Overall, though, it is a fairly consistent picture.
In terms of male runners versus female runners, the males have outperformed the females:
The A/E values correlate too as the graph below shows:
Focusing on when his grand-offspring were near the head of the market, we can see they were worth following: horses that started in the top three in the betting over the past 10 seasons produced 138 winners from 498 runners (SR 27.71%) for a profit at SP of £95.43 (ROI +19.16%). This is an excellent profit considering they could have boosted further by early prices, BOG or by using the exchanges. Whether this is a robust angle, I'm not so sure, however.
Finally, Intikhab’s runners have performed slightly better on the all weather compared to the turf – on the sand his damsire strike rate has been 16.93% while on the turf it has been notably lower at 12.53%.
*
I have enjoyed this inaugural dig into damsire data and, hopefully, you've noted a few wagering nuggets to take forward. Plenty more research can be undertaken in this area - readers may use Query Tool's 'Damsire' parameter to perform your own analyses - and I look forward to sharing my further findings in the future.
- Dave
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/galileoatstud.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2021-04-19 19:43:112021-04-19 19:43:11Punting Angles Using Sires & Damsires: Part 3
On February 6th 1954, two years to the day after her accession to the throne, Her Majesty the Queen, on a Royal visit to Australia, was present at Randwick racecourse, Sydney, to witness the first running of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, writes Tony Stafford.
Inaugurated by the Australian Jockey Club in 1851 in honour of Queen Victoria, it was staged as the Queens Plate throughout her reign. Later it became the AJC Plate with single-year editions in 1928 and 1934 as the King’s Plate, honouring the present Queen’s grand-father, King George V.
Early on the morning of the funeral of HRH Prince Philip, her husband of 73 years, Englishmen William Haggas (trainer) and Ton Marquand (jockey) fittingly won the 4millionAust$ 2021 Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes with the seven-year-old gelding Addeybb in the colours of Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, youngest and least publicised of the four Maktoum brothers who so transformed UK and world racing.
Like the Queen, Sheikh Ahmed has had a recent family death to endure after Sheikh Hamdan, second in terms of age of the quartet and mastermind of Shadwell Farm, passed away last month in the week leading up to the Dubai World Cup meeting at Meydan.
So, 67 years after that initial running, the QE Stakes is still going strong. In its pre-QE history it was won by many of Australia’s best horses, none more so than the legendary Phar Lap, winner of the Plate in 1930.
That was in the midst of a late-flowering career that brought a sequence of wins (career total 37/51) after a halting start. Sent to race in the US, he started with a track record before dying in agony after what was subsequently identified as a massive dose of arsenic. It is believed that his murder was at the behest of criminal elements worried that Phar Lap would be a threat to the profitability of the Mafia’s illegal bookmakers.
Tulloch, another Australian great, won 36, finished second in 12 and third in four of his 53 starts, with only one unplaced. This despite his being off the track injured for a full two years after his three-year-old campaign. He won the Randwick race in 1958, 1960 and 1961.
Tulloch was the only triple winner since 1954 until along came Winx. The great mare had won her first three races, then went the next seven with only a single victory before embarking on a 33-race unbeaten spree until the end of her career.
Three consecutive Queen Elizabeth Stakes fell to her spell, the last at 10-1 on as a seven-year-old in 2019 after which she retired having won 37 of 43 starts and, helped by the massive prize of the Sydney race, with world-record earnings and Group 1 wins.
Winx’s retirement left a vacancy in 2020 and William Haggas, who sent down the then six-year-old Addeybb, previously best known as a mudlark, was aiming to fill the void. Addeybb, another late bloomer, first hit the headlines when winning the Lincoln on his four-year-old reappearance and had won six races and finished second to Magical in the 2019 Champion Stakes before that first Australian jaunt.
On March 21 last year, five days after the first lockdown was announced by Boris Johnson, Tom Marquand was in Sydney to ride Addeybb in the Ranvet Stakes and in the first of four memorable clashes with the two-years-younger Verry Elleegant <what an inelegant name!> beat her by half a length.
Five weeks later – Marquand having been marooned away from partner Hollie Doyle by Covid19 restrictions – he enjoyed a more emphatic defeat of the filly in the QE II.
The relative exploits of the two developing stars between that day and last month again in the Ranvet Stakes where they renewed their rivalry, was stark, largely governed by the need for Haggas to take account of his horse’s tough time away from home base.
He fashioned a minutely-planned three-race home campaign, returning to finish an excellent runner-up to Lord North in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. He then duly collected the Listed Land Of Burns Stakes at Ayr before winning another big pot, the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot, where he avenged defeats by both Magical and Lord North. A 9-1 shot, he also numbered the Gosdens’ future Middle East money-spinner Mishriff among his victims.
Meanwhile, Verry Elleegant was making hay at home. After a break she won over a mile in August; was fourth in September and was victorious twice in October over a mile then a mile and a half before stretching out with a creditable seventh in the two-mile Melbourne Cup. Freshened up, the mare was third and then won, both races in February, before lining up for the Ranvet last month.
Fully conditioned, she got the better of a possibly ring-rusty Addeybb, but memorably on Saturday, the Haggas horse gained fulsome revenge. As a gelding and given the trainer’s skill with older horses, he could easily return next year aiming to match the three-time exploits of Tulloch and Winx.
I’ve been remiss in not yet collecting my always-valued copy of Horses In Training as I’ve been nowhere for more than a year and the usual sources either at Cheltenham or from Tindalls In Newmarket High Street have been unavailable.
I do see this morning that I can get it from Amazon at a discounted price of 20 quid so when I finish these words I’ll get a move on. It will be interesting to see the status of the Haggas string which numbered 199 last year. One definite change will be among the stable’s trio of assistant trainers as Harry Eustace is now training in his own right.
He has succeeded his father James, who ended a 30-year stint at the end of last season and his son is sure to have learnt plenty. I believe he (and possibly brother David) spent time in Australia learning his trade as did George Boughey who has been pulling up trees in his early training career.
I know they were house-mates in that hothouse of thrusting young training talent a few years back with George Scott, who was a little in front of his colleagues in his career. Others there included Ed Crisford, who now shares the billing with father Simon and James Ferguson, son of John, former colleague of Simon Crisford for many years in running Sheikh Mohammed’s racing affairs in the UK and Dubai in the winter.
It’s become fashionable for trainers to hand over either joint-, as in the case of John and Thady Gosden, or outright, like Eustace and also the Bethells up in Middleham. Listed as assistant trainer in last year’s HIT, Edward Bethell has taken over seamlessly from father James at the palatial Thorngill Stables just outside Middleham and threatens to take the family fortunes by storm.
He’s already up to the six-winner mark from only 28 runners and the recent victories of Briardale (twice), Grantley and Blu Boy, his by miles and a in a canter, threaten an explosion. There were 30 horses in last year’s Bethell team. I can imagine a flood of new owners wishing to take part in what looks sure to be an exciting project and sending horses to him.
Yesterday, two meetings delayed from Saturday to free up mid-afternoon for The Duke’s funeral made for exciting viewing and Al Aasy promises to be another potential Group 1 horse for the Haggas stable and in the colours of Shadwell Farm. Not a home-bred, Al Aasy easily won the Dubai Duty Free Stakes (the John Porter to you and me) and will be following in Addeybb’s footsteps no doubt as the season progresses.
Ayr’s Scottish Grand National meeting was one of the last jumping highlights in the UK before the domestic season ends next Saturday at Sandown. Harry Skelton’s inexorable pursuit then rapid-fire passing and drawing clear of Brian Hughes has all but clinched his first title and you have to think that with brother Dan’s fire-power and a greater readiness to take nice outside rides, he could be in for a longish spell in the number one spot. Congratulations to jockey, trainer and of course father Nick whose determination to support his sons was only exceeded by the far-sighted planning to set up their operation.
I would also like to congratulate Ian Williams for a superb training achievement in sending out One More Fleurie to win the highly-competitive novice handicap chase over three miles at Ayr.
Setting off in front, the gelding jumped every one of the 19 fences like an assured veteran, easily kept ahead of his 12 rivals throughout and stretched away for a six-and-a-half-length success with Charlie Todd not having to do much more than steer.
The exhibition was one almost of an automaton so perfect were the parabolas he executed at every fence. He didn’t gain his first career win, off a mark of 105 on his third chasing start, until seven weeks ago. He won twice more, with only a concentration lapse in between at Fakenham spoiling the sequence. This was his fourth success, now off 23lb higher than the initial winning mark.
It is easy to imagine him one day coming back to Ayr for a Scottish Grand National, or with his mix of stamina – he was going away from talented rivals rather than coming back yesterday – and jumping prowess, later on winning a Grand National.
Ian Williams is one of the truly versatile trainers who can win with any type of horse, but One More Fleurie could put him and his young rider deservedly onto a different level. I reckon he’ll be elevated to somewhere near 138 – those iniquitous handicappers are never very lenient with Ian’s winners – so that means he will probably get in the Ladbroke Handicap Chase <Hennessy> next November. Cloth Cap won it this season off 136, so go on Ian - fill your boots!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/addeybb_randwick.jpg320830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-04-19 08:06:012021-04-19 08:06:01Monday Musings: Haggas a Dab Hand with Addeybb
One of Newbury’s live races on Sunday is their Spring Cup, a big field handicap run over a mile at 3.20pm. This looks an ideal contest to get stuck into from a betting perspective.
Let’s take a look at the draw data for the Newbury mile.
There haven’t been a huge amount of big field races here in recent times so it’s difficult to be too confident about a potential draw bias. Looking at races on a variety of going conditions though there seems to be a disadvantage with the higher draws. Yes they have the best win % but PRB uses far more data and the PRB for high draws here is just 0.44, compared to 0.52 for low draws and 0.54 for middle draws.
Looking at individual draw data the five stalls with the best PRB figures are all positioned between stalls 6 and 12 inclusive. That suggests somewhere between low and middle is absolutely ideal. Stalls 16 and above perform worse than any others.
With relatively limited data on offer in such big fields it would be wise to not write anything off completely solely based on the draw.
Looking back at the last time this race was run, in 2019, five of the first six home were drawn in the lowest six stalls and the one high draw who ran well was subsequently proven to be 15lbs well in that day. The year before though, nine of the first ten finishers were drawn in double figure stall numbers.
Pace
Again we have slightly limited data on offer with bigger field sizes so we’ll have to take this with a slight pinch of salt.
The most telling data with a limited amount of races comes from the place %. Here we see 21.43% of front runners go on to place, 14.42% of prominent racers, 22.77% of the mid division and 18.75% of hold up performers. Overall that’s some very fair data and shows no significant pace bias at all.
Straight course races are often much fairer than races around a bend and any potential draw and/or pace bias could be determined more by where the pace for this individual race is drawn than anything else.
Pace Map
Here is the pace map for the 2021 Spring Mile:
There is plenty of pace on here, across both the lower and higher stalls. There seems to be a bit more pace higher than lower but we’ll probably see more runners end up in the middle of the course and there should certainly be enough pace on both sides to give more patiently ridden runners across the draw something to aim at.
Gin Palace and Bear Force One are also capable of contesting the pace so we could see even more pace from stalls 4 and 16 respectively.
Given the likely pace profile for this field it would be a slightly surprise if something doesn’t come from mid division or further back to take this.
The Runners
A look at some of the main contenders and those at bigger prices who could outrun their odds.
Troll Peninsula
Pulled clear with an odds Godolphin favourite on debut before winning his next two starts. Gave a short head beating and 5lbs to a now 82 rated rival when shedding his maiden tag and was more impressive when stepped up to a mile last time out, winning by 3.5 lengths. It’s difficult to weigh up his form to date given he’s yet to run in a handicap but the fact he has such a progressive profile for Roger Varian suggests he’s going to be operating off a mark much higher than 88 this season.
Danyah
Another lightly raced 4yo with a nice profile. He seemed well suited by softer ground last year and was 4th in the Lincoln a few weeks ago on similar ground to this, seemingly with no excuses. Nothing wrong with that form and entitled to improve again. Probably still well handicapped but would make more appeal with a bit more cut in the ground.
Matthew Flinders
An impressive winner at Doncaster last season and had previously gone close in a warm Sandown handicap. Probably found soft ground against him on his latest start over an extended 10f at York in October and gelded over the winter. First run of the season but yard has had a couple of seasonal debutants come out and win already.
Nugget
Another with a lightly raced profile and an extremely consistent one at that. He wasn’t seen after July last season beating Yes My Boy (who is now 11lbs higher) on his latest run last summer. A 5lb rise probably underestimated him and he emerged in good form last week when a slightly unlucky in running 3rd at Nottingham against two well handicapped rivals. Stable runners have generally been running to form first time out this season so not guaranteed to improve again but may not need to.
Raaeq
Finished just ahead of Matthew Flinders at Sandown last season and now 11lbs worse off at the weights. He was an impressive winner on soft ground over 7f at Ascot in October but paid for that with a 10lb rise. A smart performer but front running tactics over a straight mile might find him out here.
Imperial Command
Not quite as lightly raced as the 4yos ahead of him in the market but since joining Mark Loughnane he's won three from four, undone by a lack of pace and trouble in running on his only defeat. This is a big step up though and all his turf form is on very soft ground so he’s opposable in this.
Johan
Not obviously well handicapped having gone up to a mark of 105 courtesy of an easy victory when getting the run of the race at Chelmsford. Dominating here will be much harder and others are surely now better handicapped. Has won a decent race over course and distance though, albeit off a much lower mark.
Newbolt
Has found some consistency in recent starts and although Southwell form doesn’t appear massively relevant for this, he was beaten a head by Count Of Amazonia at Chelmsford in October and whilst Newbolt is 7lbs higher here, Count Of Amazonia has gone up 19lbs since. He’s won on turf previously and isn’t out of this at all, especially with Laura Pearson taking 5lbs off his back.
Revich
Outran his odds in the Lincoln when 6th and slightly better than the bare result. However this race perhaps has even more depth and he’s unlikely to have the requisite improvement to figure. Look out for him at Chester next month, a course where he has form figures of 1131 at distances of 7f+.
Gin Palace
Not the most consistent but did won off a 2lb lower mark last season and won on seasonal reappearance over course and distance in a race that worked out well. That took his course and distance haul to two wins from two runs. He can lead but doesn’t have to so will probably look to sit prominently here. He’s capable of outrunning his odds given his course record but this is much hotter than anything he’s previously contested.
Verdict
Given the profile of many of those at the head of the market it would be a big surprise if at least two or three of these aren’t still very well handicapped. You’ll probably need a runner that has at least 10lbs in hand of his mark to win this and that probably makes the shortlist consist of Troll Peninsula, Matthew Flinders and Nugget.
The Roger Varian trained Troll Peninsula is the one that could be anything, but the flip side of that is he could be badly handicapped. He’s probably perfectly drawn in stall 8 and this may well be the last time you get to back him off a mark of 88 but his sole turf run came on soft ground so he still has a little to prove.
Matthew Flinders will be suited by the return to better ground but a mile is probably the minimum trip for him and although he should get a nice pace to aim at, any rustiness on his first run of the season could find him out.
NUGGET seems to be the solid each way in the field. He beat a good field on Doncaster’s straight mile last June before probably not staying 10f on his next start. He then finished a narrow 2nd at Windsor off a 5lb lower mark in a race where the 3rd won two of his next three. He had several future winners in behind when winning at Newmarket and there was absolutely nothing wrong with his Nottingham reappearance where he was squeezed out with half a furlong to go when challenging two horses that would be amongst the favourites for this contest. If stall 2 isn’t a hinderance he should at least finish in the places in what looks a really hot contest that should throw up future winners.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Headman_LondonGoldCup.jpg319830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-04-17 14:19:112021-04-17 14:19:11Nugget Looks Tasty In Newbury Spring Cup
The normal Saturday action has been switched to Sunday because of the funeral of Prince Philip - therefore, a busy day for the ITV cameras, but something for everyone as they head to Newbury’s first flat meeting of the season, while they are also up at Ayr to cover their Scottish Grand National card.
As always, here at GeeGeez.co.uk we've got all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races.
NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)
2.10 –Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV
17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
17/17 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
17/17 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/17 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
14/17 – Having their first run of the season
13/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/17 – Had raced at Newbury before
11/17 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
8/17 – Drawn 6 or higher
8/17 – Had won a Group race before
5/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 5/1 Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
2.45 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV
15/17 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
15/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/17 – Having their first run of the season
13/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Drawn 5 or higher
12/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
9/17 – Had won over 7f before
8/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Had won at Newbury before
5/17 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
4/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/17 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2 Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
3.20 –Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV
16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
15/17 – Having their first run of the season
14/17 – Won at Listed class or better before
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Won between 2-4 times before
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Had won a Group race before
8/17 – Had won over 7f before
8/17 – Had won a race at Newbury before
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Irish-trained
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2 Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
3.55 –MansionBet Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV
17/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
17/17 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Won over at least 1m before
14/17 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
13/17 – Rated between 85-98
13/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
10/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had run at Newbury before
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 5)
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 6)
1/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1
15/16 – Aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
14/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
14/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Rated between 127-139
11/16 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/16 – Finished in the top four last time out
11/16 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – French bred
10/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
8/16 – Had run at Ayr before
4/16 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 2 of the last 3 years)
2/16 – Won last time out
Theinval won this race in 2018
Duke Of Navan won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
9/9 – Aged 9 or younger
9/9 – No more than 3 chase wins
8/9 – French (3) or Irish (5) bred
7/9 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/9 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Had run at the track before
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2
17/17 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
14/17 – Aged 7 or younger
13/17 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
12/17 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Rated 137 or higher
10/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/17 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
8/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 7 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1
17/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Aged 8 or younger
16/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
16/17 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
9/17 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
8/17 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/17 – Raced at Aintree last time out
6/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/17 – Had raced at Ayr before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
3.35 –Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV
17/17 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
15/17 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
15/17 – Aged 8 or older
14/17 – French or Irish bred
13/17 – Carried 10-9 or less
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
12/17 – Finished in the first three last time out
12/17 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
11/17 – Had won over 3m1f or further
11/17 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
10/17 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
7/17 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
3/17 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/17 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4 winners)
1/17 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 8 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 21/1
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/stt.png320830Andy Newtonhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngAndy Newton2021-04-17 01:00:382021-04-17 08:46:29Sun TV Trends: 18th April 2021
With the 2020/21 National Hunt winter season on its final lap, focus switches to the start of the flat turf campaign, writes Jon Shenton. It’s my favourite time of the racing calendar, I love the initially unfamiliar optics of watching flat horses on turf for the first fortnight or so of April before settling down into the drumbeat of the campaign. With the original lockdown commencing in March 2020 and the subsequent hiatus of racing I’m determined to enjoy this period more than ever!
This edition is going to focus on a trainer whose predominant efforts are on the level. He was stable jockey to the ubiquitous Mark Johnston, notching nearly 300 wins before retiring from the saddle at 21 after struggling to maintain a jockey’s weight, primarily due to being a hungry six-footer. I am of course referring to Keith Dalgleish. Based in Carluke in South Lanarkshire it’s another (accidental) focus on a yard operating in northern climes.
Dalgleish is a serious proposition under all race codes; however, to keep with the season, this article will concentrate on his flat turf runners. With c.4000 runners on the level since 2011 (the usual date used as a starting point in this series) there is plenty to get stuck into. For clarity, no data from the embryonic 2021 season is included in this piece; so that’s ten years, 2011 to 2020.
Keith Dalgleish Market Overview
We start, as has become customary, with performance by Starting Price.
There is a definite concentration of strong performance at the sharper end of the market, as indicated by the greener bandings. Immediately, through a quick scan of the table it appears as though horses sent off at 4/1 or shorter fare marginally better than break-even across the board.
The graph above illustrates how Dalgleish entries are outperforming their peers consistently for the price bandings up to 4/1.
This isn’t at the cost of higher priced runner performance, however. The orange line almost perfectly follows the market average (blue) data through prices up to 20/1. The orange spike in the 22/1 to 40/1 category suggests an occasional propensity for a lively outsider, too. Dalgleish is a trainer who generally outperforms the market across all prices (super short prices notwithstanding, where there are limited data). However, if the money is down his is a team about which to sit up and take notice.
This is helpful to know, not only in deciding whether to back Dalgleish entrants, but also when fancying a runner from another yard that is taking on a warm Dalgleish runner.
Briefly zooming in on the 4/1 and shorter cohort, those who have read a few of my musings over the past couple of years will know that I’m partial to differentiating potential angles by last time out performance. I especially monitor and check for trainers for where a “bad” last run bears limited indication of the likely outcome of a horses chance this time. Analysing the Dalgleish shorties in this way is a case in point.
The strike rates are marginally stronger for those that failed to place on their last track and, more notably, SP performance is also clearly enhanced for that same cohort: this is a demonstration of how market forces can pull a price to being a value proposition where there isn’t the comfort blanket of a good run last time.
Having highlighted the most fancied runners from the yard, for the rest of the article I’m going to use 14/1 as a price cut-off, at least initially. As yard performance is more than reasonable across the larger price bands there may also be value to be attained there.
Keith Dalgleish by Flat Turf Race Type
Sifting through the numerous flavours of flat racing in relation to Dalgleish offers several strong pointers for potential onward utilisation. The table below displays the groupings as per horseracebase classification.
Before proceeding, ideally some of the groupings requires further explanation (for example non-handicap is a mix of Group, listed and conditions stakes) but given the data volumes I’m going to bypass.
There are two interesting immediate takeaways from this data. Firstly, performance in nursery handicaps is very obviously in the lower tier by comparison to the other race types for this yard. However, conversely, Maiden and Novice performance is excellent. A simple hypothesis is that the Dalgleish team must broadly focus on getting horses ready early in their careers, resulting in potentially penal marks for their initial forays into the handicapping ranks.
For those with longish memories, you may recall that my very first article for Geegeez was based on Mark Johnston. That was written in August 2018, where does the time go? Here it is for posterity and perhaps a few still useful pointers.
Despite a reticence to review my first baby steps into writing, I include it as there is a clear focus of MJ on the same type of races, namely maidens and novices (with a par record at best in nursery races, too). Circumstantial evidence perhaps, but evidence nonetheless that the former apprentice has learned from the master of Middleham.
Delving further into these races by analysing the number of previous career runs the horse has experienced paints a picture worth committing to memory.
Whilst debutants have a fair to middling record for Dalgleish, with roughly one-in-nine prevailing and a third placing, the record in relation to a horse’s next venture to the course (one previous career run) appears to be on the essential items list. These horses, certainly in data terms, appear to make a huge leap forward from their racecourse bows. That win rate improves by nearly three times, with comfortably over half hitting the frame.
Rummaging in the long grass, the record at Ayr of second time Dalgleish starters is 8-from-19. However, nothing materially bends the general assertion that a Dalgleish second time out animal is worth forensic examination irrespective of circumstance.
I thought it would be a fascinating exercise to evaluate these runners from the last couple of turf seasons a little more thoroughly, the rationale being an attempt to assess the improvement (or otherwise) of these runners between debut and second runs. Accordingly, this little beauty / monstrosity (!) below was constructed painstakingly one Sunday morning. It’s a good idea to locate your sunglasses before your eyes scroll downwards!
For the record, I’ve included all horses that started at 16/1 or shorter in terms of price within this section.
Essentially, this table shows every second time out runner (on turf) from the stable from the 2019 and 2020 campaigns. I hope it’s reasonably straightforward to follow but the basis of the info is a simple comparison between the RPR’s recorded for each horse’s first two visits to the track. They are recorded in columns RPR1 and RPR2. The victorious animals on their second run are marked in bright yellow, horses finishing in the top three are indicated by a rather more subdued hue of the same colour. Fourth, or worse are in plain old white.
The graph below shows the same data in terms of the variance between the first and second run in terms of RPR. The numbers along the bottom axis equate to the ‘No.’ column on the table above.
It is clear that in general there is a significant level of improvement between first and second run. Of course, this would be expected of most trainers as a horse will learn from its first day at big school but based on these results the implication is that Dalgleish is better than most.
Interpreting this further isn’t straightforward, and no doubt your views are equally as valid as mine but here are a couple of my own key takeaways.
If a Dalgleish horse runs well on debut, it seldom regresses on its next run. Every horse that finished in the first three on debut attained at least as good a position on their next start.
If a horse has a moderate (or poor) run on debut there is an incredibly good chance that there will be significant improvement next time. The bottom four in terms of debut RPR performance all upped their game (in terms of RPR, numbers 21-24 in the table/graph above) next time, with Tatsthewaytodoit and One Bite improving by over 30.
This is a good example of where data can be a trusty friend and support an ostensibly more daring approach to punting, giving confidence to sometimes overlook the market view. After all, it only requires one or two days in the sun to glean a profitable edge. Having backed some of these myself, I can attest that early prices are also significantly more attractive usually. I’d advise (especially if you’re a BOG recipient) that getting on early is a good idea. The danger of doing this is that you may end up backing genuine no-hoper material, but the upside more than accommodates that.
To solidify confidence in these data, I thought it worthwhile to check the entire period back to 2011 in terms of evaluating how horses performed on their second run based on how far they were beaten on debut. The info is quite surprising, but reassuringly useful.
This attempt at an infographic (lol) illustrates how far the horses were beaten on their first run, with the info in the boxes demonstrating performance on their second outing. It doesn’t seem to matter one jot by how far the yard’s runners are seemingly outclassed, they come back brighter next time. As you might expect, the aforementioned punting boldness has been historically well rewarded, particularly where the horse dropped out of the back of the TV on debut; indeed, arguably the further the better based on this info, with an A/E of 1.97 from 59 runs, 16 winners and an ROI of 80%.
Keith Dalgleish in Nursery Handicaps
These races represent the two-year-old division of weight for ability, that age group’s initial foray into the cut and thrust of handicap racing. They are the natural next stop for most horses after two or three runs in maiden or novice company.
As previously noted, Dalgleish’s record in such races pales in comparison to his performance in other categories.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that searching for potential value is a lost cause: the devil, as always, is in the detail.
The above table denotes clearly that there is some potential in a Dalgleish first time ‘capper within this division. If a price filter of 7/1 or shorter is applied (convenient, no doubt) then the record of the yard is 11/42 with a 61% ROI. Basically, there have been no first-time handicapping nursery winners at 15/2 or greater from 25 darts. That may not be earth-shattering intel, but it is a demonstration that writing off a yard based on a macro level data set is not always the right thing to do.
Keith Dalgleish: General Handicapping
Soldiering on with the progression through a typical lifecycle of a racehorse into the general ranks of handicapping, the below insight demonstrates the yard’s performance by age of animal.
Immediately, the eye is drawn to the record of three-year olds in comparison to the rest of the age groupings. By all measures this cohort outperform their other younger or older counterparts. In fact, historically by backing all three-year-old handicap runners from the yard a tiny profit would have been attained. That’s borderline remarkable considering it encompasses 790 runners.
Evaluating three-year-old handicap performance by race class provides further insight.
Evidently, the numbers for basement Class 6 racing are a fair way below the more progressive grades. I have referred to this subject previously, my view being that with the lowest class racing there is generally nowhere else to go with such moderate animals. Some yards have proportionately more of these than others and, whilst some teams have learned to farm such contests efficiently, others run in them with plenty of no-hopers as there simply are no lower grade alternatives. Whilst Dalgleish has a perfectly respectable strike rate of 13% at the Class 6 level I would not be interested from an angle point of view.
Ignoring the C6’s, there are 103 wins from 537 runners in the five higher bands, returning 15% to SP with an A/E of 1.17. That’s not too shabby at all. If I were constructing a “backing blind angle”, I’d probably advise playing only when a single figure price is available. Horses between 10/1 and 14/1 inclusive are 9/132 and result in a 10% loss.
Keith Dalgleish by Course
I’m not going to delve too deeply into track data as there is seemingly little to get excited about. Unsurprisingly, Team Dalgleish trains a keen focus on runners in Scotland with generally competitive numbers, the vast majority of their flat runners appearing at Ayr, Hamilton or Musselburgh.
A similar perspective exists for Trainer / Jockey combinations, too, and I’m going to bypass analysis of that this time, especially as the recently retired from the saddle Phil Makin claimed the lion’s share of rides.
As usual, I hope you’ve gained a better understanding of a specific yard by reading this trainer profile. I’m particularly looking forward to tracking those second time outers. More generally speaking, allow me to wish you good luck and fingers crossed for a productive summer for all of us.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/racingfotos_54810711165.jpg319830Jonny11https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngJonny112021-04-12 15:24:012022-12-07 09:52:34Trainer Profiles: Keith Dalgleish
They say disasters come in threes, writes Tony Stafford. The same is true where things we thought would never happen do actually occur. In four short days early in April, Prince Philip was no longer with us; a woman rode the winner of the Grand National, and a Japanese golfer became the first to win a major championship.
Having spent 73 years married to the Queen, Prince Philip was so much a fabric of our lives that it was a real shock when he did not make the century, unlike his mother-in-law Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother who died in her 102nd year on March 30 2002.
On Friday morning I was stuck in a traffic jam having undertaken a routine 30-minute round trip to buy some hard-to-find organic dog food for our delicate and elderly Yorkshire terrier. As I emerged on the south side of Blackwall TunneI, I noticed a police car blocking the northern approach.
Three hours later, having missed the first three races on the second day of the Aintree meeting, I had undertaken a near 50-mile diversion to avoid the resultant gridlock. For all that time, after switching on the car radio and hearing of Prince Philip’s passing, I learnt lots I hadn’t known about him in Radio 4’s blanket coverage. How fortunate that the future Queen as a very young girl could discern the qualities which clearly entranced her on their initial meeting at Dartmouth Naval College more than 80 years ago.
Both descendants of Queen Victoria, who also made it to her 80’s despite being a carrier of the recessive gene haemophilia – none of the existing generations is afflicted happily - their marriage has been the one constant in a world increasingly subject to the potential horrors of social media and the like. Things may never seem to be the same again.
That’s true too of life after Covid. Today, on my late father’s 101st birthday, shops can again open in the UK in the midst of a week’s mourning for the Royal family. Hopefully we can start to go racing – I resolved not to until the ravages of the disease had been beaten. It seems it almost has been and on Thursday my second helping of the Astra Zeneca will either kill (if you believe the Euro politicians) or fully protect me.
Missing Aintree didn’t prevent us celebrating the continued rise of the remarkable Rachael Blackmore. It’s not a surname you hear very often although John Blackmore was in my first primary school class. He was well enough behaved and from memory quite a jovial chap. That was unlike Johnny Robinson who was only in the reception class of Amherst Primary School for one day. He was so disruptive that halfway through the afternoon he was tied to a chair. We never saw him again, nor was anyone else in need ever of similar constraint.
Amherst was the third Christian name of Sir Henry Cecil whose father was the younger brother of the third Baron Amherst of Hackney. It was my pleasure to know him well enough to ask him to write a foreword for one of my few “proper” books, all three of which my elder daughter presented me with (two to return) when I made a first visit to her house for more than a year recently. I was especially pleased to be reminded of Frankie Dettori’s Year In The Life, ghosted before and amended after that seven-out-of-seven at Ascot.
The Cecil-embellished volume was a second go at the earlier Little Black Racing Book, foreword by Lester Piggott. The idea for that was spawned by Collins Willow’s commissioning editor, Michael Doggart, as a racing stable-companion to the Little Red Book, a best-selling and much-admired volume by Harvey Penick, the great American golf coach.
His most celebrated student at university in Austin, Texas, was Ben Crenshaw. When Penick died in 1995 after a long illness, Crenshaw was one of the pall-bearers.
The following day he started his Masters quest, and as Ben later confessed, he was guided to success in that Major championship by Penick’s memory. His triumph will no doubt have made only a ripple in the sporting lexicon of the 1990’s in comparison with what will happen back home in Japan after Hideki Matsuyama held on by a stroke on Sunday night in Augusta.
That event came just 30 hours after what for most of our lives we’ve believed would never happen. In 1977 Charlotte Brew, riding Barony Fort, got as far as the 27th fence before her horse was pulled up. In those days Aintree was much more fearsome and the fact she could negotiate 26 of the fences should have prepared us for a future female winner. Forty-four years on we have one.
The first of a series of Flat races in which women could ride came five years earlier than Barony Fort, at Kempton Park, when Scorched Earth ridden by Miss Meriel Tufnell won, the first of three victories in a 12-race sponsored-by-Goya series which brought her the title. Sadly she died from cancer aged 53. Charlotte Brew, who watched Rachael’s victory at home in the West Country with her three daughters, is now 65 years old and confessed to a tear or two as she watched Minella Times’ triumph.
As with momentous events happening in triplicate, Rachael Blackmore’s achievement at Aintree, coming hard on her domination and champion jockey award at the recent Cheltenham Festival, was the first of three memorable female rides within an hour on Saturday.
The third of them came in the concluding bumper at Aintree where Megan Nicholls, riding her father’s Knappers Hill, was involved in a drawn-out battle in the last furlong with jumps championship contender Harry Skelton and lost nothing in comparison with him or with Paddy Brennan on the fast-finishing second.
Indeed her strength in the finish was notable as she gained a sixth bumper win of the year for her father from only 15 rides. Considering she has ridden on the Flat in the last year at 8st 1lb, to lug the saddle with around three stone of lead back to scale with her horse carrying 11st 4lb was a feat of strength in itself!
Before turning to riding on the Flat, which at the time when she was only 16, her father described as “getting it out of her system”, she had ridden one earlier bumper winner but none more until this term. Instead she has won 96 races on the Flat, based in the north, so, far from merely getting it out of her system, she has become very accomplished. Also at the age of 23 she has shown herself to be a talented broadcaster when given the chance, usually as the expert analyst at jumps meetings close to the Nicholls stable.
The middle winner of the three had already long weighed in by the time Megan went to post. Every day I do a line for FromTheStables.com, and pass on the thoughts of a dozen or so trainers, including Micky Hammond, to the members.
Micky had four runners at Newcastle on Saturday but clearly best liked the chance of Ballycrystal in the finale. Becky Smith, one of the leading female amateurs under both Flat and NH Rules, had been starved of action during the ban on amateurs and point-to-point racing. Now the younger sister of Gemma Hogg, Hammond’s assistant trainer, is raring to go and is quickly at full flow.
After talking to Micky, I looked up Ballycrystal’s form. When trained by Brian Ellison, on Nov 23 2018 he had carried the same weight (rated 125) as the favourite and eventual winner in a 3m1f chase at Catterick. He was well beaten in fifth place but now, fancied after a decent run in a jumpers’ bumper at the track in February, was running in a handicap hurdle off a mark of 93, 32lb lower.
Fifteen minutes before the scheduled start of the Newcastle race, Cloth Cap, the horse that beat him at Catterick, was lining up as the favourite for the Grand National, 14lb well-in after winning at Kelso. If the two old rivals were to meet next weekend, Ballycrystal would be 69lb (so almost five stone) better off!
Becky expertly guided Ballycrystal (18-1 to 8’s) to a facile win in his handicap hurdle race, while Cloth Cap was pulled up after being in the first two for much of the marathon journey. I texted Micky later: “On the way they ran today, it might have been close between them at levels!” He’s looking up to see if he can find a race where he can take him on again!
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/MinellaTimes_RachaelBlackmore_GrandNational2021.jpg319830Tony Staffordhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngTony Stafford2021-04-12 07:26:242021-04-13 09:27:13Monday Musings: In Threes They Come…
This is the race of the year for trends fans and they are a great way of narrowing down this massive field. Andy Newton has already done the hard work for you if you are after Grand National trends, click here to visit his brilliant Grand National trends blog.
Pace
Making up ground isn’t easy on this course despite the runners having more than four miles to do so. In such a big field hold up performers can not only find themselves some way off the early lead, they also run more of a risk of having their rivals fall just in front of them. Those that are closer to the pace are far less likely to have to dodge fallen horses or unseated riders.
Let’s see what the data says about this race:
Historic pace bias in the Grand National
It’s important to first acknowledge we only have limited data here. This is the only race each year run here over this distance and I’ve excluded heavy ground renewals as they come with their own micro pace biases.
The place data is the most telling here as this gives us the most data for the time period and the place percentages suggest a fairly strong bias towards those who race prominently. A very decent 20.48% of prominent runners place in the Grand National and that would probably be a lot more impressive if the data included 5+ places that you often get with the bookies.
Comparably, mid division is next best with an 11.29% place ratio, followed by front runners who have a 9.09% place strike rate and then there are the hold up performers who have a shocking place percentage of just 2.74%.
We can’t always tell exactly which runners are likely to be dropped out in the rear. It doesn’t take a drastically different ride to see a hold up performer to race in mid division for example. However it’s pretty clear that those who tend to race towards the rear and/or can be outpaced early on are not the ones to be with here.
Grand National 2021 Pace Map
A huge amount of runners makes constructing a pace map difficult, unless of course you have a Geegeez Gold subscription.
Grand National 2021 pace map based on the last two runs of each entrant.
We should have at least three runners happy to contest the early lead, including hot favourite Cloth Cap. Over this test they aren’t going to be taking each other on for the lead though, we’ll most likely just see all three disputing the early pace at a sensible gallop.
The runners you’d be most concerned about are those bottom nine contenders who all seem most likely to be dropped in at the rear. Recent history suggests they’ll have to be very good to win from there, or even place.
Instant Expert
Instant Expert should be able to highlight the runners who are more proven in conditions than others. The flip side of this is that those who are most proven are probably going to be amongst the most exposed runners but at the very least we can highlight some each way bets with Instant Expert.
Instant Expert showing win data for the 2021 Grand National field
Instant Expert showing place data for the 2021 Grand National field
You’ll find the win and place data above, win data first. A strong Grand National trend is the requirement to have won over at least 3m and to have placed over at least 3m4f so those two distances have been used for the win Instant Expert and place Instant Expert respectively. Both tables have been sorted by distance strike rate.
It’s worth noting that fifteen of these (including reserves) have so far never won on good or good to soft ground. Those runners include the well fancied Kimberlite Candy. Farclas and Cloth Cap are amongst the most consistent placers on this sort of ground, with Burrows Saint also up there but from only one try.
Nine runners that are guaranteed to make the final field have never won over 3m or further so it may be best to put a line through those. Burrows Saint, who is amongst the favourites, has the best win strike rate (67%) at 3m+. Eleven runners have a 33% win strike rate or better at 3m+ and that figure will drop to nine if the reserves don’t get in.
A whopping twenty seven of these, including the reserves, have never placed over 3m4f before which could be a convenient way of ruling out over half of the field. Yala Enki stands out as a runner that is consistently good over marathon trips with eight places from nine attempts over 3m4f+. Lord Du Mesnil and Potters Corner also bring a good place strike rate at marathon trips into this from more than one run so you’d fancy them to stay the trip at the very least.
With such a big field here form in 16+ runner races could be even more important than usual. Twenty eight of these, including reserves, have never won in a 16+ runner race before. Potters Corner is the only one to have both a 50%+ win strike rate and more than one win in these big fields. Twenty runners have at least a 50% place strike rate in big fields including the majority of the fancied runners.
If you wanted to build a shortlist of the most solid contenders from a win perspective using Instant Expert who have very few negatives you’d probably be looking at the following runners:
Burrows Saint (good but limited data)
Secret Reprieve (good but limited data, 2nd reserve)
Takingrisks (lots of proven form)
Potters Corner (solid but ground a concern)
Cloth Cap (likeable profile)
Minellacelebration (some decent stats in his favour but has to prove stamina)
Grand National 2021 Runners
Here is the complete Grand National 2021 field in order of odds, most fancied to least fancied.
Cloth Cap
Pretty much everything to like about this one except the price. He’s a stone well in, ran a good 3rd in the Scottish equivalent two years ago, since cheekpieces were fitted he’s won easily on both occasions and enjoys this kind of ground. He’ll be out of the way of any incidents behind. He wouldn’t want to race as enthusiastically as he often does in this and there will definitely be better 4/1 shots on the day in other races but he looks the most likely winner.
Burrows Saint
Won the Irish equivalent in 2019 (aged just 6) which goes a long way to proving his stamina. That victory came on good to yielding and although most of his runs have come on softer, his three career victories came on either good to yielding or good. He’s raced over hurdles more than fences since the Irish National win, clearly protecting his handicap mark, and he put up a more than respectable effort in a Grade 3 chase last time out on ground softer than ideal.
Minella Times
A good jumper with form on a range of going types. He’s never gone further than 3m and has been beaten on both attempts at that distance. He shapes as if he will stay a little further but my preference is for something with far more proven stamina, especially at this sort of price.
Any Second Now
Enjoyed a step up to 3m2f to win the 2019 Kim Muir at Cheltenham before falling in the Irish Grand National behind Burrows Saint. He’s been campaigned with this in mind since but with his last two wins coming over 2m he’s potentially got a little too much speed for this and the fact that he’s falled or unseated on three occasions doesn’t bode too well, for all the fences aren’t what they once were.
Kimberlite Candy
A wide margin winner of Warwick’s Classic Handicap Chase in 2020, a race that worked out particularly well. That win suggests his new handicap mark shouldn’t stop him from winning and two 2nd places in the Becher Chase give plenty of hope that he’ll complete the course once again. This season’s 2nd in the Becher was his only run this season with leaves him with a longer than is often ideal break heading into this, although he does go well fresh. His best form is with plenty of cut in the ground and he was disappointing in the 2019 Midlands Grand National on good to soft which is a concern.
Secret Reprieve
Second reserve. On the upgrade in testing conditions at Chepstow the last twice. He’s lacking the usual experience of a Grand National and the likelihood of missing the cut here may do him a favour in the long run. He’ll be of interest next year, especially if the ground came up testing.
Discorama
No stamina concerns having placed in the 2019 National Hunt Chase on soft ground. Given a wind op since disappointing last time out so well being has to be taken slightly on trust but he’s run well after a wind op and an absence in the past, when 3rd at last year’s Cheltenham Festival behind The Conditional in the Ultima. His run style isn’t likely to do him any favours around here and most of his form is on softer.
Magic Of Light
Runner up in this in 2019 behind Tiger Roll so few question marks about the suitability of this test. As a 10yo she’s entitled to have a better crack at it this year but she’s 5lbs higher and it’s extremely difficult to win a National having run so well in defeat in the race previously. Poor run last time out but over a much shorter distance so that’s not a major concern. Much more appealing for place purposes than win purposes.
Farclas
Recent Cheltenham form behind The Shunter somewhat franked on Thursday but he’s been largely campaigned over 2m and although he ran well enough on his only attempt at 3m this is a massive step up again. Interesting from a handicapping perspective but has to be one of the least likely stayers in the field.
Potters Corner
Stays all day and loves testing conditions. He hasn’t been in the best of form on his last two starts and whilst he would have still made plenty of appeal on soft or heavy ground here, he might still find things happening too quickly in this. Perhaps the first time blinkers will help with that but there are certainly some risks involved for all it would be no shock if he won this.
Bristol De Mai
High class stayer whose best form has come at Haydock. He does have form on better ground but there is plenty to prove stamina wise and his best chance of defying top weight would have been if the race was moved to Haydock. Not difficult to oppose.
Anibale Fly
Finished 4th in this in 2018 on heavy ground and 5th in 2019 on better ground. Now 4lbs and 9lbs lower than those efforts respectively. He’s placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2018 and 2019 too so is clearly a high class contender. He hasn’t shown much since the 2019 renewal and would have only appealed as a winner on soft ground anyway so whilst he could place if bouncing back, a win at a third attempt is a tall order.
Milan Native
Has won over as far as 3m2f when taking the 2020 Kim Muir but failed to shine when pulled up over 3m5f in November. He’s been largely out of form on his last three runs and didn’t jump well on reappearance at Cheltenham after wind surgery. Opposable based on current form, jumping and stamina.
Mister Malarky
Not the most consistent but his run style should serve him well around here and the ground should be fine. He ran well after wind surgery in February so perhaps that will sort out his consistency but he still has stamina to prove. Definite chance if stamina holds out.
Some Neck
First reserve. Run well twice over 3m6f in cross country races at Cheltenham and finishing 3rd behind two runners rated 20lbs+ behind him no disgrace even if well enough beaten. Jumping hasn’t always been the best and needs to improve for this test to figure if getting a run.
Takingrisks
Won the 2019 Scottish Grand National, beating Cloth Cap in the process. Versatile with regards to ground having won that race on good whilst gaining his most recent win, last time out, on soft. He’s got a good strike rate for a pretty exposed runner and although he’s now 12, it’s hard to argue his win last time out wasn’t a career best. He may improve again for this step back up in trip and although he’s fallen a couple of times, he’s gone eighteen runs without doing so. Certainly one of the more interesting contenders at a price.
Acapela Bourgeois
Gave Burrows Saint 6lbs and a beating last time out in a small field Grade 3 and now gets 1lb from that rival so interesting at the weights. He wouldn’t beat that rival on their meeting in the Irish National a couple of years ago though when Acapela Bourgeois was 3rd behind his stablemate. Should stay this far and jumps okay but he tends to need to dominate to win and those tactics will be a bit harder to pull off in this big field.
Lord Du Mesnil
A strong enough stayer who won a decent race last time out but he loves Haydock and very testing conditions. He’s fallen or unseated five times in his career including his French form and that’s a concern over these fences.
Yala Enki
Extremely consistent in staying chases but he was a faller here at the first in the Becher and eight of his eleven wins have come on either soft or heavy ground. The higher he’s gone in the handicap, the more he has relied on smaller fields to get his head in front so he’ll have to put in some weight carrying performance to win this. Likely to be well placed but whatever happens should find at least a few too good.
Canelo
Didn’t look to be crying out for further last time out over 3m2f and has arguably been nailed by the handicapper now. His run style might not be ideal here either and it would be a surprise if he was good enough, for all there are relatively few miles on the clock.
Definitely Red
A staying on 4th in 2019 Becher and was sent off 10/1 for the 2017 Grand National before he was pulled up having been badly hampered. Took well to cheekpieces when they were applied in a 15 length win at Kelso just over a year ago but he’s struggled for form since then. Might bounce back but it’s possible age has caught up with him.
Give Me A Copper
Very lightly raced for an 11yo and he’s largely run well on better ground. A solid 4th in the bet365 Gold Cup in 2019 but he’s not always the best jumper. Not without a hope in this at a price but even if his jumping holds up he’ll need to improve for the step up in trip.
Lake View Lad
Pulled up in the 2019 Grand National with connections stating they would have liked a softer surface. He beat Santini here in December but has been out of form since and hopes of a revival are pinned on a wind op and first time cheekpieces. Something to prove on this ground too.
Shattered Love
She’s been in fair form this year but most wins have come in small fields on testing ground over much shorter trips. Far too many question marks to consider.
Blaklion
Finished 4th in the 2017 Grand National before winning the Becher in the same year by a wide margin. Hasn’t really threatened to win a race since then though so all hopes pinned on the return to this venue.
Chris’s Dream
Ran in the Ryanair last time out but was pulled up after jumping errors. Has several wins at 3m but hasn’t looked like staying beyond that trip and this is a lot of weight to carry when stamina is in serious doubt.
Class Conti
Nothing particularly wrong with his handicap mark but it certainly seems he needs to improve for the step up in trip rather than simply stay the extra distance. He lacks a win at 3m+ though and the ground may be livelier than ideal.
Vieux Lion Rouge
Well suited by these fences having completed in every single one of his nine runs over them and was a wide margin winner of the Becher Chase this season, defeating Kimberlite Candy by 24 lengths. Yet to get within 27 lengths of the winner of this in four attempts and has looked a non stayer each time. Great bet to complete the course, poor bet to win.
Alpha Des Obeaux
Fell in the 2018 Grand National but was a good 3rd in the 2019 Becher. Hasn’t got within 13 lengths of winning since then but ran a decent 4th in the Cross Country Chase last month, just behind Some Neck. Ground and trip are probably okay but run style leaves him needing plenty of luck here. Better chance than odds suggest though.
Fagan
Fourth reserve. Comfortable heavy ground winner last time out and had looked in need of further at Ludlow previously over an extended 3m1f. Pulled up previously in the 2018 Scottish Grand National but beaten before stamina really came into play that day. Been hit hard by the handicapper for latest win and unlikely to get a run anyway.
Hogan’s Height
An impressive winner over these fences in the Grand Sefton in 2019 but not shown much since then, pulled up on penultimate start and beaten 124 lengths last time out in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham. Has form on a range of going types but couldn’t be arriving in much worse form.
Jett
Hasn’t run well in over a year and was beaten over 100 lengths in this season’s Becher. Stays at least 3m1f but form as much of a worry as anything.
Ok Corral
Found to be lame after he was pulled up following a 416 day break when running in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s only run four times on good or good to soft ground and he’s won three of those which is a possible angle but a lot has to be taken on trust.
Sub Lieutenant
Stayed on nicely to finish 2nd in the 2019 Topham Chase and tends to run well on better ground. Not disgraced in two runs for the current trainer and jockey Tabitha Worsley has already won over these fences in the past in the Foxhunters’ Chase. Questionable stayer but better chance than the price suggests.
Talkischeap
Impressive winner of the 2019 bet365 Gold Cup (Give Me A Copper in behind) but only real sign of life since then came in a national hunt flat race at Lingfield in February. He reverted to type though when well beaten at Kempton on his next start. Enjoys fast ground (60% strike rate on good or better) but this might not be quite quick enough and needs to bounce back regardless.
The Long Mile
Stayed on well behind Acapela Bourgeois and Burrows Saint last time out but was very much ridden to get the trip that day. Similar tactics here would leave him a hostage to fortune and given the bulk of his form he’d still be a doubtful stayer.
Balko Des Flos
Barely run well for two years now and has to prove stamina and well-being amongst other things.
Ballyoptic
Has fallen in two out of three attempts at these fences and was well beaten in the other. He was actually in the process of running a decent race in the 2019 renewal when hitting the deck. He’s had no real respite from the handicapper though and hasn’t been in the best form recently so a win would be a shock.
Cabarat Queen
Best form has generally come when leading early but was always in rear last time out when eventually pulled up. Has form on a variety of going but something to prove at present and stamina far from assured.
Double Shuffle
He's been in decent form at Kempton on his last three starts and this course will suit his run style. Versatile when it comes to the ground but he didn’t seem to enjoy this test when trying it in 2017 and doesn’t look to stay further than 3m
Minellacelebration
Three time winner at Aintree but has yet to shine in two attempts over these fences. Won well in October here but hasn’t been in the same form since and has had a wind op since his last run. Wasn’t stopping when victorious over 3m2f at Uttoxeter last July and would be a major player if able to transfer his Mildmay course form to these fences. Very risky but more upside than most at these odds.
Ami Desbois
Runner up on his last three completed starts, behind fellow outsider Double Shuffle on his penultimate start. Tends to perform better in smaller fields which is no surprise given his run style and he’s going to struggle to dominate in this. May show up well for a while but stamina likely to give way later on.
Kauto Riko
Third reserve. Ran well in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November but not seen since. He was seen to good effect that day but still only managed 4th and on ground that is likely to be faster than ideal over a trip that looks much further than ideal it’s unlikely we’ll see him figure in the unlikely event he gets a run.
Tout Est Permis
Hasn’t been in the best of form this year and he didn’t look a strong stayer when a well beaten 8th behind Burrows Saint in the 2019 Irish Grand National. Ground no issue but recent form and distance are likely to cause problems.
Verdict
Not as many with outstanding claims in this as you might think. As usual there are a few in with a great form chance but with some serious stamina question marks and I definitely prefer some proven stamina on my side in this.
Cloth Cap is the obvious one. He’s a crazy price though, especially if some of his recent improvement has been down to the aggressive riding tactics. He should run well but you can’t back him at that price.
BURROWS SAINT hasn’t been able to advertise his claims as much as he’d like as Willie Mullins has clearly been protecting his handicap mark with this race the aim since last year. He seems to have the perfect mix of speed and stamina for this and should be ideally placed just off the lead.
There are a few at very big prices that can interest the each way punters. The least risky of those could well be Magic Of Light and Takingrisks. The former arguably finds herself in a weaker race than when she was 2nd in the last running of this whilst the latter is still unexposed at extreme trips, despite being proven at them, and ran a career best last time out. Man Of Light is the more likely to place and Takingrisks the more likely to win of that pair.
Of those at the more extreme prices Give Me A Copper, Sub Lieutenant and Minellacelebration make a little bit of appeal but I wouldn’t consider more than the tiniest of each way bets on those, if anything.
Four against the field:
1. Cloth Cap 2. Burrows Saint 3. Takingrisks 4. Magic Of Light
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/TigerRoll_2019GrandNational_830x320.jpg320830samdarbyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngsamdarby2021-04-08 23:31:582021-04-09 08:04:28Grand National 2021 Preview, Tips and Runner By Runner Guide
Last May, when there was no racing and the flat season had yet to begin, I wrote a post about form profiling which you can read here. In it, I shared five horses which had displayed a specific pattern of conditions to most of their wins: a profile if you will.
I then outlined how to undertake this profiling activity using the tools on geegeez.co.uk at that time, Full Form and Query Tool. Since then, we've added the brilliant Profiler which, as the name suggests, is perfectly positioned to support an activity like this.
So, how did that first stab go? Remarkably, to me at least, the squad of 40+ horses we collectively identified made a profit by blind backing them at SP from the resumption on June 1st to the end of 2020.
Buoyed by that performance, which was to some degree predicated on a 40/1 winner (caveat emptor, as ever) - and which could have been significantly improved upon with either BOG or exchange prices - and prompted by a reminder from a reader who especially enjoyed following 'our' team last year (thanks Graham!), I thought we should do it all over again.
Watch the short video below where I show you how to use Profiler and QT in concert (requires a Gold sub, though some profiling can be done in "races of the day" for free subscribers)
Choose a horse (ideally not the winner) from the table of big race results below, and/or identify horses of your own choosing
I'm really excited to see what you/we come up with this season.
To that end, I'll look to produce the report around the 6th April, so all submissions need to be made before then, please, for inclusion. [Of course, anyone can do this at any time for their own enjoyment/advantage, and/or can share additional profiles in the comments below]
Here is a list of all Class 2 and 3 handicaps (18+ runners) from 2020 in UK and Ireland. Click on the Date or Time column to open up the race result, and then start playing!
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