Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My chosen settings for the report...
...have sadly yielded just the one qualifier for this Friday...
...but we do still have our daily list of 'free' races...
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- 3.00 Goodwood
- 4.30 Newcastle
- 4.45 Goodwood
- 5.05 Newcastle
- 8.40 Galway
- 8.50 Musselburgh
Our runner from the H4C report does go in our of out two 'free' races from Goodwood, but both have far too many runners for me, so I'm swerving both, just as I'm going to pass on the other three UK races, all of which look like poor Class 6 affairs. There are however, a couple of Class 2 contests on the Goodwood card, so let's look at the 4.10 race, an 8-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on good to firm ground...
...where I think Haunted Dream's mark of 104 is missing and that My Prospero looks at least 2lbs well in (over Cairo) if this was a handicap.
Cicero's Gift (has won four of his five starts) and Crown Board are the only ones coming here off a win, although the latter may well be in need of a run some 227 days after scoring on debut at Wolverhampton just before Christmas, as might My Prospero who hasn't raced since Champions day at Ascot last October. Sir Busker has been off for just over four months, but the remainder have all raced in the last 45 days.
Aside from our two LTO winners, none of the other six even made the frame last time out, but all bar Haunted Dream and Sir Busker have at least one win in their last six starts, whilst this pair are both on losing runs of ten races, even if the latter is denoted on the card as a fast-finisher. Perhaps he needs to get going sooner?
He wears cheekpieces for the first time today, as does Cairo whilst it's a first time in a tongue-tie for both Haunted Dream and Liberty Lane. My Prospero, Prague and Cairo all drop down in class here after defeats at Group 1, Listed class and Group 1 respectively, but Crown Board's debut win LTO 227 days ago was only a Class 5 novice event on the tapeta.
That win was at least over today's trip and Cicero's Gift & Liberty Lane have also scored over this distance in the past. Cicero's Gift has also won here at Goodwood before, but that was over a mile. Sir Busker has won here over 7f and My Prospero over 1m2f, but no course and distance winners.
Most of these lack experience, but My Prospero, Cicero's Gift and Liberty Lane are probably the ones who stand out most on Instant Expert...
...which doesn't portray Haunted Dream and Sir Busker in a great light although the former has a great place record at Class 2, whilst the latter would seem to 'get' the ground...
Previous similar races here have shown very little in the way of a draw bias, but if you wanted to be picky, you'd choose a more central position if you could...
...but there's probably more advantage to be gained, by ensuing that you were in the 'right' place in the pack and that, for me, is tracking the leader(s)...
...but leading is still preferable to mid-division of further back, which based on recent efforts would seem to favour Prague, Crown Board, My Prospero and Liberty Lane...
...with the obvious caveat that there's a lack of data for the two inexperienced runners at the top of that list.
Summary
I'm a bit torn here, because the form horse here is clearly Cicero's Gift and he scored well enough on Instant Expert but he'd need to race slightly more prominently to not let the race disappear from grasp, whereas My Prospero also scored well on IE and is likely to race more prominently and takes a drop in class here, so i suspect that these two might well be the first two home and if I had to choose between the two, I think I'd go with Cicero's Gift.
As for a placer, I think Liberty Lane or Prague might well fit the bill, but you'll get a better place on the latter, so that's where the value would be according to the market at 3.35pm Thursday...
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
