Racing Insights, Thursday 07/09/23 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

2.40 Salisbury
5.35 Carlisle
5.45 Wolverhampton
5.55 Clonmel
7.15 Wolverhampton

I'm going to do things in a slightly different order today and I've no idea where it will take me/us! The whole premise of my column is that I put my actions into print in real time and sometimes I end up with nothing. This is perfectly fine, because if there's no bet you like, place no bet and move on!

The highest rated of the four UK races above is the 7.15 Wolverhampton and it also has the most Instant Expert data. The race itself is race 32 of this year's Racing League and it's an 11-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on standard tapeta and here's how the place data for Instant Expert looks for this race...

...where based on overall form, this trio catch the eye most...

...not withstanding that the first of the three has yet to win on the A/W, but has made the frame in all four career starts, whilst the other two are higher in the weights than their last A/W successes, but let's look at the whole card now...

We have no LTO winners here, but all bar Koy Roy and Cry Havoc have a win in their recent form line although both were placed on their latest outings. What's The Story has made the frame in each of his last three and Farasi Lane, Parlando were also placed last time out. There's no real standout on form and we've a real lack of past course/distance success too.

The field have 2 wins and 3 further places from 20 visits to Wolverhampton and have made the frame in 61 of 157 (38.9%) contests over 1m to 1m1f, winning 21 times at a rate of just 13.4, but Harswell Duke did win over this trip at Nottingham on soft ground in October of last year and Young Fire was a Class 5 course and distance winner here back in March.

Parlando last raced a week ago and United Front was seen ten days back, but the remainder have all had two to six weeks rest since their last efforts, from which five are now racing at a different class with Lir Speciale & United Front dropping down a level from Class 2 with Young Fire and the sole female, Cry Havoc both up one class. Night Arc is up two classes after finishing seventh at Newmarket shortly after winning a Class 4 contest, so I'm not sure what to make of him, other than to say he's inconsistent?

We've seen the place data from Instant Expert, but to complete that picture, here's the win percentages...

Not a lot to crow about there, but Lir Speciale is proven in this grade, whilst Hafeet Alain looks generally weak in this context. What's The Story and Young Fire have struggled on standard going with the latter also not faring too well at Class 3, although the former's place stats are far better. Perhaps he's more of a placer than a winner?

The draw has placed the IE weak-looking Hafeet Alain and the double-class riser Night Arc at opposite ends of the stalls, but the general draw data for similar handicaps over the last five years suggests there's not a great deal to be gained from stalls positions...

...although the actually stall-by-stall data & the PRB3 figures do say that those drawn higher than stall nine have tended to struggle and that makes sense, having to travel wider and/or further...

...so that might affect United Front's chances from stall ten. His best bet here in that case is to try and get out sharpish and keep in touch with the pack, as those races above haven't exactly been kind to hold-up horses...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Cry Havoc & Young Fire based on recent evidence...

If I was to discount that pair from my list of potential winners, based on pace alone and then remove United Front & Night Arc based on the draw, that leaves me with seven. Hafeet Alain looked weakest on Instant Expert and Cry Havoc is winless in seven. Although What's the Story has made the frame in half of his ten A/W starts, he has won just once, way back in June 2018 and has lost eight on the bounce since then, of which five were on tapeta.

Summary

I'm not saying that the discards can't make the frame, but I've enough reasons not to back any of them for the win, leaving just Lir Royale, Koy Koy, Harswell Duke, Farasi Lane and Parlando as potential winners.

And of those, Lir Speciale would be my pick. His A/W record reads 23311, of which he is 311 at Class 3 and although he's up in trip here, the reports from his last two outings/wins on the A/W read...pressed leader, led over 2f out, ran on well inside final furlong and good headway on inside over 2f out, led over 1f out, ran on well so the trip shouldn't necessarily be an issue here.

Hills are paying four places on this one and at 8/1, he'd be an ideal E/W bet if you're not entirely convinced about his win credentials. 8/1 is my general/nominal cut-off point for E/W bets, so that would currently discount the 5/1 What's The Story and the 6/1 United Front from my original 'trio of interest', but I'm happy to take the 9/1 about Parlando.

Others of possible interest would include Farasi Lane at 8/1 and Koy Koy at 12's.

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