Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.
The free races of the day on Monday are...
- 6.10 Ballinrobe
- 6.20 Windsor
- 7.30 Beverley
- 7.50 Windsor
...the highest-rated of which is only Class 4. Mind you, as ide from one Class 3 Novices Limited Handicap Chase at nearby (to me, anyway) Cartmel, Class 4 is as good as it gets in the UK on another miserable Monday. The race in question here is the 7.50 Windsor, a six-runner, Class 4, fillies' flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on good to firm ground...
NAAEY was a runner-up and then a winner on her first two starts (both at Class 5), but found life tougher last time out when 7th of 8 (beaten by 15 lengths) in a Listed race at Pontefract, just under a fortnight ago. She's now down three classes for her handicap debut and should put up a better show here.
MOTHER MARY has gone six races without a win, since landing a 7f Novice event at Thirsk almost a year ago. She has failed to even make the frame in three handicap runs to date and was 15th of 24 in a Class 2 handicap at Royal Ascot last time out. She drops two classes to run here, but it's hard to have much confidence in her and she steps up in trip by 2f.
WARREN HILL tends to be there or thereabouts without clocking the wins up as recent results of 4144 would testify. She has won two of the thirteen career starts so far and is probably best left watched on her return from over five months off track. Both career wins have however been over today's trip.
STAR JASMINE won over a mile on heavy ground at Bath at the start of April and was only beaten by a short head and a nose over 1m1f at Hamilton seven weeks ago but was disappointing at York last time out when only 10th of 18. She's down in class here, though and also gets a 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.
SEEK AND DESTROY makes a handicap debut after finishing second (beaten by a nose) and then first over today's trip. Both races were Class 5 affairs, though, so she's up in class here today, but her last run/win was here over course and distance. Also gets a 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.
SEA REGAL has also only raced three times before and managed to win over today's trip two starts ago. She didn't seem to 'get' 1m4f last time out, but now drops back in trip. She is, however, up in class for her handicap debut, but does benefit from that 9lb weight allowance as a 3 yr old.
We're obviously not holding too much data about a field of six with a combined 35 races (Warren Hill & Mother Mary have raced 21 times between them!), but this is what Instant Expert can tell us...
Only Warren Hill has won a flat handicap so far and she's now rated 6lbs higher than that win, but she has two good runs under her belt on good to firm ground, despite not winning, but she has won at the trip and has also made the frame in one of her Class 4 defeats, as well as over 1m2f. Seek and Destroy is probably the best equipped off what little data we do have. She'll emerge from stall 1 today, but I don't think there's a 'good' or a 'bad' part of the stalls to emerge from here, based on past results, anyway...
...so I'm hoping to get some help from our feature of the day 'PACE' which we can assess in two ways. Firstly we can see how those 70-odd races above have been won...
...with front-runners definitely the horses to be on. Secondly, regarding pace, we can also look at how his field have approached their last few races ie...
...suggesting that Sea Regal, Seek And Destroy and possibly Naaey will be the ones setting the tempo.
Summary
Seek And Destroy won over course and distance last time out, having narrowly failed to win her previous outing. She was the standout on Instant Expert, albeit off limited data and she's likely to be front and forward early doors here, just as is needed at Windsor, so it's Seek And Destroy for me today.
There are then pros and cons for each of the other five as to who might pose the biggest challenge, but Sea Regal will also be prominent and dis win over this trip at the last time she tackled it. She also gets the weight allowance like Seek And Destroy, so Sea Regal is my next best here.
At 4.50pm Sunday, Bet365 were offering 4/1 and 11/4 about Seek An d Destroy respectively with Naaey a 2/1 favourite, so we might have a bit of value.
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- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
