The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.
This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...
- 2.00 Ffos Las
- 3.30 Ffos Las
- 5.10 Southwell
- 6.30 Wolverhampton
...from which we'll look at the 3.30 Ffos Las, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m4f on soft (heavy in places) ground...
FORM : No Tackle won last time out, whilst Rocky Man and Equinus were both runners-up. Emmpressive Lady, Jimmy Jimmy and Sabbathcial all failed to complete. In addition to our sole LTO winner, four others (Emmpressive Lady, Rocky Man, New Found Fame and Sabbathical) have all won at least one of their most recent outings. Jimmy Jimmy has failed to finish four of his last five!
CLASS : Pileon, Whitehotchillifili & Gladiateur Allen are all down a class, whilst Equinus and No Tackle are up one grade with Sabbathical stepping up two classes.
WHAT'S NEW/DIFFERENT? : Both of those stepping up one class (Equinus and No Tackle) are on handicap debut, whilst New Found Fame is having a second attempt. Jimmy Jimmy makes both a yard and UK debut after recently leaving Gordon Elliott.
Emmpressive Lady is one of just two (Whitehotchillifili the other) mares in the race and she's running for the first time since a wind op, whilst LTO winner No Tackle wears a tongue tie for the first time.
COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar Master Debonair, Equinus and Blacko hve won at a similar trip to this one, but top weight and class dropper Pileon is the only one to have won here, landing a 2m5f contest in January 2020.
LAST RUN : Emmpressive Lady's wind op took place during her 341 days off track, but all her rivals have been seen in the past two months with Gladiateur Allen turned back out quickest at 16 days.
Instant Expert highlights our sole course winner and the nine to have won at a similar trip noted above, but also shows that all bar one have won on soft/heavy ground, but that only three have won a Class 3 NH contest, yet four (Pileon, Emmpressive Lady, Master Debonair & Gladiateur Allen) have won at Class 2!
There's quite a bit of red on there, but much of it off small numbers of runs in fairness. Whitehotchillifili's 1 from 7 at the trip might need looking at, as might Gladiateur Allen's 1 from 8 and Sabbathical's 1 from 7, but the latter's 2 from 21 on soft/heavy is more of a concern, to be honest followed by his 0 from 8 at this track. Along with Jimmy Jimmy, who can't seem to get round I'd suggest that Sabbathical is amongst the weakest here and I'm discarding the pair.
The top four on the card have multiple wins on this going and Emmpressive Lady's 3 wins and 2 places from 8 is probably the pick of the pack. Overall, if we then switch our focus to place form, Rocky Man would seem best suited all round...
...and based just on the above place form, I'd going to cross Master Debonair & Blacko off for having no green and also Equinus for a lack of relevant experience : he's had three runs, all at 2m at lower grades and has yet to win. He's on handicap debut and might well need the benefit of a debut.
All of which leaves me with seven to consider and this is how they've approached their last four races...
That data suggests that Rocky Man and New Found Fame are likely to be waited with in a race, where the mare Whitehotchillifili is the one most likely to set the pace. Past similar races here haven't been kind to hold-up horses...
This actually poses a problem for me, as I think that Rocky Man might be the 'best' horse in the race, but closer inspection says he was a runner-up here over course and distance last time out , failing to make up enough ground from a hold-up position and losing by two lengths. A repeat of that run doesn't necessarily make him win this one and a 2lb rise in weight after not winning mighty well make him go down again.
Summary
I expected to be making a case for Rocky Man here and he might well go on to win, but I'm concerned about him trying to make up ground in the mud off a higher weight than last time out. That said, if there was a bit of juice in the price, he still might not have been a bad bet, but as a 15/8 or 2/1 fav, he's not for me. I think the two that fascinate me most are the mares, Emmpressive Lady and Whitehotchiilifili, particularly the latter.
The Lady has admittedly been off track for just over 11 months, but has had a wind op in that time. She was also pulled up LTO, but that was a 3m2½f affair on soft ground at Hereford, where she ran out of steam 3 out, just 3 days after winning over 2m7½f at a higher grade. This is much shorter and she'd won her previous two before that race and had actually won four and finished as a runner-up once in the seven races prior to that PU run LTO. She's currently 10/1 with bet365 paying four places and that mightn't be a bad shout.
As for Whitehot, she's a bit shorter at 15/2 but could also make the first four home, based on past place form. She has made the frame in 9 of 21, including 7 of 16 on soft/heavy. She has won a Listed race in the past and was beaten by less than 4 lengths in a Grade 2 race at Ascot a year ago.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
