Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.
It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...
- 3.35 Newmarket
- 3.45 Doncaster
- 4.00 Carlisle
- 5.20 Newmarket
- 7.00 Epsom
- 7.50 Newbury
...from which the best on paper is arguably the first on the list, but only four are set to contest the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes, so I'll take a look at the last on that same card, the 5.20 Newmarket, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good to firm ground...
This has the feel of a pretty open contest and I can already make a case for four or five of them, but only Glenfinnan was a winner last time out and Greatgadian, Darkness and Soar Above have no wins in their last six (12, 15 and 9 actually!) outings.
I'm going to be fairly ruthless at this point and discard all three as they are 1 from 15, 0 from 15 and 1 from 13 on the Flat and I just know that I couldn't be tempted to back them.
Of my remaining seven runners, all are moving in class to run a Class 3 today. Titian, Good Karma and Bodorgan all drop in from Class 2, whilst Sirona's last three (of a 4-race career!) have all been in Listed company. The other three runners (United Front, Glenfinnan and Bling On The Music) were all in Class 4 action when last seen, which in Glenfinnan's case was ten months ago and that might be an issue. Titian has been off for ten weeks, but the remainder have all raced in the last two to seven weeks.
Glenfinnan is hooded for the first time and actually makes a handicap debut here, as does Sirona and it's Good Karma's second attempt in handicap company. We have four three year olds in the field (Sirona, the sole filly in the race, Good Karma, Glenfinnan & Bodorgan) and they will receive a very handy 9lb weight allowance for their age, which should make them very competitive, even if they lack a little experience.
Instant Expert says that only two of the remaining seven runners have won on good to form ground and that only one has won a Class 3 flat race, mind you only three have tried! Bodorgan is our sole course winner, whilst only Glenfinnan has scored over a mile on turf...
Bling On The Music may have own on good to firm, but a 1 in 7 record isn't great, nor is his 0 from 5 at the trip, although United front has gone one race more on that score. The absence of green above suggests we might (or might not!) learn more from the place stats. There's only one way to find out!
Sirona is pretty much untested in these conditions, but both Titian and United Front have gone well at this grade previously. The latter has also shown a liking for good to firm ground. Don't get me wrong a win and two places from five efforts isn't much to crow about, but his Flat record on other going is just 0 wins and 2 places from 11 starts, so good to firm might well be his thing and both he and Titian seem to 'get' the trip.
Those two are drawn pretty wide with only Glenfinnan and top weight Greatgadian outside of them, but I doubt that the draw is going to make or break a runners' chances here over a straight mile and that's how it has been in the past here...
...whereas the pace profile of those races tells a different story and the emphasis has been on taking or getting close to the lead...
...which isn't great news for Bling On The Music or Good Karma, based on their last two or three efforts...
...so much so that I'm ready to discard that pair too, giving me just five to focus on.
Summary
3pm : I like Glenfinnan and the way he won his maiden last September, but he's up in class and hasn't raced since. That said, he is likely to make the running here and if allowed a soft lead, he could well run away with this one, as he did at Yarmouth. He's hardly thrown in off a mark of 91 and I'd be wary of backing him at that weight, but I suspect the 9lb allowance will be the key here and I'd say he's the one to beat.
I don't know enough about Sirona, other than that she lacks relevant experience under these conditions and has been well beaten in her last three outings. Both Titian and United Front scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and both look well set to play a major part here again, if only because the rest of the field might not be good enough, whilst Bodorgan receives weight all round and wasn't beaten by far in two recent runs at a higher grade.
I won't get involved with Sirona, until I know a bit more about her, but any of Titian, United Front and/or Bodorgan could chase Glenfinnan home and make the frame.
5.30pm odds check : The market goes 9/2 Glenfinnan & Bodorgan, 7/1 Titian and 20/1 United Front! So, I'd back Glenfinnan and take an E/W punt on both Titian and United Front. Skybet are paying four places here and still offer 14's about United Front and that might well be a nice bet.
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- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
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- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
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