Racing Insights, Thursday 28/09/23 geegeez.co.uk

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

1.40 Bellewstown
2.10 Pontefract
4.10 Newmarket
4.15 Clonmel
4.30 Pontefract

The three free UK races above are a Class 6 Apprentice Handicap, a 4-runner affair and a Nursery respectively and none of those appeal to me at all, so with feature of the day in mind, I'm looking elsewhere and I've spotted something that piqued my interest.

The 7yr old mare Gale Force Maya was withdrawn from a race I covered last week, but she's set to re-appear in the 3.00 Newmarket on Thursday a race she won in 2021 and Instant Expert suggests she'll have favourable conditions (more on this shortly, of course!) again.

The race itself, is an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground that will be good in places due to the showers forecast...

Frankness is our sole LTO winner, but Al Simmo was a one-length runner-up behind her that day and Minnetonka also finished second on her last run. All bar featured horse Gale Force Maya, Sweet Harmony and Ivory Madonna have won at least once in their last seven outings, but this trio is winless in 7, 9 and 9 days respectively, the latter still being a maiden after 9 efforts.

In a bid to break her cold spell, Gale Force Maya will wear blinkers for the first time, whilst Kinta and Ivory Madonna will have their first outings in a hood and a visor respectively. The latter steps up one class here, as do River Pride and Alcazan, whilst Urban Decay is up two levels. Sweet Harmony, however, steps down to Class 2 after running in a Listed race at Ayr last week.

At 6 days rest, she's turned back out the quickest, although all the field bar Gale Force Maya (33 days off) have raced in the last three weeks. The latter's success in this race two years ago makes her the only previous course (and CD) winner, but all of her rivals except River Pride, Ivory Madonna and Urban Decay have scored over today's trip, as shown by Instant Expert...

Gale Force Maya is far more experienced under these conditions, but has a good set of results behind her and at 7lbs lower than her last winning mark, could well be dangerously weighted here. The only cause for concern from that data above is Alcazan's 1 from 9 on the going, but she has at least made the frame in two of the eight defeats, putting a slightly better perspective on her place stats...

...which again point to a big run from Gale Force Maya. Al Simmo's place percentages are even better than GFM's, though and if she's likely to do well, then we also need to add Frankness into the mix, as she beat Al Simmo last time out, but she is 3lbs worse off here. This trio are drawn pretty close together in stalls 4, 6 and 7 and our draw analyser suggests that Al Simmo (in #4) might have a bit of an advantage over the other pair...

...and this will be of interest to followers of River Pride, who has the rail and a decent set of Instant Expert place stats, but he'll have to be away sharper than he has in his last two outings...

...because those races I've used for the draw analysis have favoured those setting the pace...

...meaning that ideally we'd be on one drawn relatively low with a penchant for early speed...

...and with our race's heat map looking like this...

...some clearly make more appeal than others.

Summary

For me, based on the data above, it's Al Simmo for me at 5/1. She's in good nick and only lost narrowly last time out. She scored well on Instant Expert and seems to have the best pace/draw make-up of the field.

If Al Simmo is my pick, then Frankness won't be too far away based on their match three weeks ago. Gale Force Maya was the pick on Instant Expert, has won this race before and looks dangerously weighted, whilst Executive Decision has three wins and a runner-up finish from her last six efforts over a similar trip, so she can't be discounted either.

Al Simmo and this trio should contain the first three home and the challenging trio are currently 7/2, 7/1 and 7/1 respectively, so I wouldn't be suggesting Frankness as an E/W option.

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