Posts

Saturday 2nd September: Video Preview

In this video post, I've taken a look at six of Saturday's sprints, as well as the big handicap hurdle from Newton Abbot.

 

SotD Update, 6th to 11th March 2017

Another really pleasing set of results this week for SotD, with finishes of 231214, which tells me that even when we get beat, we're getting a good run for our money. As ever we tend to beat SP (and Betfair SP for that matter!) more often than not, justifying me putting the hours in the night before to ensure we maximise our returns.

There's not much for me to add really, other than my usual pessimistic forecast of doom! Only joking, but we really must be ready for a possible downturn, as our run since the start of December stands at 30 winners from 81 at a strike rate of some 37.04% for profits of 78.78pts at an ROI of 97.26%. These returns are far better than our lifetime averages of 28.02% and 26.29% respectively, accrued over 1649 selections (Monday is the 1650 landmark!).

The results over the last 15 weeks suggest we've hit around 8 winners more than expected, so any downturn we do experience can be absorbed easily into the bank you'll have built by now. We WILL have losers and we WILL have a cold spell, patience will be required, as my MO won't change, nor will the effort I put in.

Selections & Results : 06/03/17 to 11/03/17

06/03 : Goring One (adv 10/3 BOG) : 2nd at 10/3
07/03 : Crosse Fire (adv 11/4 BOG) : 3rd at 9/4
08/03 : Make Music (adv 13/2 BOG 5.2/1 after R4) : WON at 11/4
09/03 : War Department (adv 10/3 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
10/03 : Global Dream (adv 10/3 BOG) : WON at 2/1
11/03 : Twenty Eight Guns (adv 3/1 BOG) : 4th at 9/2

27/02/17 to 04/03/17 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +4.53pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

March 2017:
3 winners from 10 = 30.00% SR
P/L: +7.03pts
ROI = +70.00%

2017 so far:
22 winners from 58 = 37.93% SR
P/L: +60.78pts
ROI = +104.79%

Overall:
462 winners from 1649 = 28.02% S.R
P/L: +433.51pts
ROI: +26.29%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 27th February to 4th March

Probably the quietest week for some time, perhaps the expected slow down is kicking in?

Anyway, just the one winner and a couple of placers over the 6 days, bit with us getting 11/2 about Dear Sire on Wednesday, that was enough to ensure a small 0.5pt profit over the week and it was also our 20th winner of the year. Not bad from less than 50 selections to that point!

The upshot is that we finished February with a total profit of 24.25pts, we're already 2.5pts up for March and 2017's figure is +56.25pts. Ups and downs are inevitable in this game, but we've got a decent bank behind us.

Selections & Results : 27/02/17 to 04/03/17

27/02 : Shades of Midnight (adv 3/1 BOG) : 3rd at 9/4
28/02 : Picansort (adv 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
01/03 : Dear Sire (adv 11/2 BOG) : WON at 4/1
02/03 : Dark Side Dream (adv 4/1 BOG) : u/p at 5/2
03/03 : Beggars Cross (adv 7/2 BOG) : fell at 7/2
04/03 : Bloody Mary (adv 10/3 BOG) : u/p at 7/4

27/02/17 to 04/03/17 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.5pts

February 2017:
9 winners from 22 = 40.91% SR
P/L: +24.25pts
ROI = +110.23%

March 2017:
1 winner from 4 = 25.00% SR
P/L: +2.50pts
ROI = +62.50%

2017 so far:
20 winners from 52 = 38.46% SR
P/L: +56.25pts
ROI = +108.17%

Overall:
460 winners from 1643 = 28.00% S.R
P/L: +428.98pts
ROI: +26.11%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.30 Musselburgh : Dear Sire @ 11/2 BOG WON at 4/1 Tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led approaching next, mistake 2 out, 2 lengths clear when blundered and good recovery by rider last, rider continued without irons flat, ridden out, kept on well to win by 5 lengths

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.25 Newcastle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG

Why?

A very consistent 5yr old gelding who is trained by Chris Dwyer, a trainer with a good record in A/W handicaps in recent years, winning 77 of 454 (17% SR) for 202.5pts (+44.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • those returning from a break of 4 to 30 days = 71/354 (20.1%) for 239pts (+67.5%)
  • over 5f to 1m : 64/353 (18.1%) for 236.8pts (+67.1%)
  • those finishing 2nd/3rd LTO are 28/115 (24.4%) for 112.4pts (+97.8%)
  • on tapeta : 14/93 (15.1%) for 35.8pts (+38.5%)
  • and those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 24/83 (28.9%) for 66.2pts (+79.8%)

And from the above, we can ascertain that those racing over 5f to 1m, 4 to 30 days after their last run are 59/279 (21.2% SR) for 261.1pts (+93.6% ROI), of which those who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 124.1pts (+151.3%)

...providing a...a 1pt win bet on Dark Side Dream 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 1st March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Picansort @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 Held up in rear, not clear run on inside over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, went 2nd close home, beaten by a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.30 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dear Sire 11/2 BOG

Why?

Short and hopefully sweet today...

Donald McCain's record here at Musselburgh since the start of 2012 stands at 33 winners from 149 (22.2% SR) for 28.5pts (+19.2% ROI) profit and with regards to today's race, those runners are...

  • 26/86 (30.2%) for 45.5pts (+50.6%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 24/63 (38.1%) for 22.2pts (+35.2%) in non-handicaps
  • 24/59 (40.7%) for 76.2pts (+129.9%) over trips of 2m to 2m3.5f
  • 14/56 (25%) for 29.4pts (+52.5%) after a break of 11 to 30 days
  • and 16/43 (37.2%) for 57.6pts (+133.8%) carrying 11st to 11st4lbs

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dear Sire 11/2 BOG which was available with Bet365 and Hills at 6.05pm on Tuesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2017

Monday's Result :

4.45 Ayr : Shades of Midnight @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Tracked leaders, led before 3 out, headed last, kept on and lost 2nd place close home, beaten by little more than half a length

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Picansort 4/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Peter Crate's A/W handicappers priced at 14/1 and shorter, backed blindly have 21 wins from 116 (18.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.7pts at an ROI of some 36.8%, which is more than decent and in respect of this contest, those runners are...

  • 21/112 (18.75%) for 46.7pts (+41.7%) on Polytrack
  • 15/77 (19.5%) here at Lingfield fpr 37.8pts (+49.1%)
  • 12/74 (16.2%) for 17.6pts (+23.8%) ridden by Shane Kelly
  • 16/65 (24.6%) for 48.8pts (+75.1%) over the 5f minimum trip
  • and 12 from 50 (24%) for 21.9pts (+43.8%) in the February to April period

Peter couldn't be better represented today than by the 10 yr old gelding, Picansort, a 7 times (yes, seven!) course and distance winner, who not only also has an excellent overall A/W record, but does appear to have his favoured conditions here to boot!

In fact, this horse has 10 wins from 58 (17.2% SR) on the A/W, rewarding followers with profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 25%, and under today's conditions, those 58 races have produced the following...

  • 8/50 (16%) for 13.3pts (+26.7%) going left handed
  • 8/48 (16.7%) for 16.6pts (+34.6%) whilst at Peter Crate's yard
  • 8/47 (17%) for 16.3pts (+34.8%) here at Lingfield
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.6pts (+57.5%) with Shane Kelly in the saddle
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 31.4pts (+84.9%) in 5f sprints
  • 7/28 (25%) for 31.3pts (+111.7%) over this Lingfield 5f course and distance
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 14/1pts (+61.1%) when priced at 5/1 and shorter
  • and 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 24.3pts (+127.7%) when wearing blinkers.

And if that's not quite enough to persuade/tempt you, a glance at our racecard for this race shows that he's top of the Speed Ratings and if you back our top-rated blindly in 5f races, you make a profit, as explained better/in more detail here in the Gold Forum.

...and that's why I've placed...a 1pt win bet on Picansort @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

SotD Update, 20th to 25th February 2017

A proverbial game of two halves (to use a footballing cliché) last week with three losers followed by three winners. And with those winners paying out at 3/1, 11/4 and 7/1, it meant that a weekly profit of 9.75pts was achieved, guaranteeing that we'll end February with over 50pts profit banked in 2017!

Selections & Results : 20/02/17 to 25/02/17

20/02 : Theatre Act (adv 5/1 BOG) : 3rd at 7/2
21/02 : My Renaissance (adv 11/4 BOG) : 5th at 7/4
22/02 : Steelriver (adv 4/1 BOG) : 5th at 3/1
23/02 : Amazement (adv 3/1 BOG) : WON at 5/2
24/02 : Night of Sin (adv 11/4 BOG) : WON at 7/4
25/02 : Sir Note (adv 10/3 BOG) : WON at 7/1

13/02/17 to 18/02/17 :
3 winning bets from 6 = 50.00% SR
P/L: +9.75pts

February 2017:
9 winners from 20 = 45.00% SR
P/L: +26.25pts
ROI = +131.25%

2017 so far:
19 winners from 46 = 41.30% SR
P/L: +55.75pts
ROI = +121.2%

Overall:
459 winners from 1637 = 28.04% S.R
P/L: +428.48pts
ROI: +26.17%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 13th to 18th February 2017

Two winners and two runners-up from just 5 runners meant that we almost had a fantastic week here at SotD (I say we, because it's not just me doing this!), but with two 3/1 successes, a 3pt profit on the week is still excellent.

The sharper-eyed amongst you will have noticed that I did my usual half-term disappearing trick, taking a couple of days off, covered again by Steve whose two selections were a non-runner and a 3/1 winner, meaning that his last three picks for SotD have all been winners!

Steve is proving to be an excellent addition to the Geegeez team and is a more than capable replacement for me when I'm not here, so please afford him the patience you've had to show me in the past when things haven't been quite as good as they are now!

And now turning towards the last week of the month, were currently 16.5pts up for February, so you "worst case scenario" types (like myself!) can rest assured that we'll be at least 8.5pts in profit by month end, after our winner on the 15th ensured another profitable month. I will, of course, be striving to add at least another couple of winners, but it will be a good month come what may.

Selections & Results : 13/02/17 to 18/02/17

13/02 : Haraka (adv 7/2 BOG) : 4th at 9/4
14/02 : Casual Cavalier (adv 3/1 BOG) : 2nd at 11/8
15/02 : Peaceful Passage (adv 3/1 BOG) : WON at 11/8
16/02 : Spanish Fleet (adv 10/3 BOG) : 2nd at 10/3
17/02 : Twenty Eight Guns (adv 11/4 BOG) : non-runner
18/02 : The Worlds End (adv 3/1 BOG) : WON at 11/4

Your first 30 days for just £1

13/02/17 to 18/02/17 :
2 winning bets from 5 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +3.00pts

February 2017:
6 winners from 14 = 42.86% SR
P/L: +16.50pts
ROI = +117.86%

2017 so far:
16 winners from 40 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +46.00pts
ROI = +115.00%

Overall:
456 winners from 1631 = 27.96% S.R
P/L: +418.73pts
ROI: +25.67%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 6th to 11th February 2017

When a non-runner was my personal best result of a week reading 54N54, you know it has been a bit of a struggle! I did allude to the fact last week that we may be due a correction period after such a terrific run in December/January, traditionally difficult months for "tipsters".

Thankfully, the non-runner allied to a winner at 3/1 on Monday when Steve thankfully covered for me, meant that despite the poor form, we only lost 1pt on the week, meaning February still looks strong and we still need just one more winner to guarantee profit for the month!

Selections & Results : 06/02/17 to 11/02/17

06/02 : Nimr (adv 2/1 BOG) : WON at 3/1
07/02 : Eastern Dragon (adv 9/4 BOG) : 5th at 3/1
08/02 : Alfie Spinner (adv 4/1 BOG) : 4th at 9/2
09/02 : Babouska (adv 7/2 BOG) : non-runner
10/02 : Vyta du Roc (adv 5/2 BOG) : 5th at 15/8
11/02 : Vieux Lille (adv 10/3 BOG) : 4th at 3/1

06/02/17 to 11/02/17 :
1 winning bet from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -1.00pts

February 2017:
4 winners from 9 = 44.44% SR
P/L: +13.50pts
ROI = +150.00%

2017 so far:
14 winners from 35 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +43.00pts
ROI = +122.86%

Overall:
454 winners from 1626 = 27.92% S.R
P/L: +415.73pts
ROI: +25.57%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 30th January to 4th February

Another excellent week for the in-form SotD service with a string of results reading 122111 producing 16pts profit from the six picks! In addition to that, Monday's winner was our 450th and Tuesday's runner-up was turned back out again on Friday and won!

All of which means that January became our 7th profitable month in a row, February is off to a flyer and members picking up this service on the 1st December last year would now be 21/53 (39.62% SR) for profits of 62pts (+117% ROI).

Which brings me to an important reminder about managing our expectation levels. Yes, we're absolutely smashing the bookies at the present and I love doing that, but this is a long-term project, as testified by 1621 selections to date.

Even after the superb run since the start of December, our historical strike rate and ROI are 27.95% and 25.71% respectively, so we're not to be surprised/disheartened by a cold spell that may well be on the horizon!

Selections & Results : 30/01/17 to 04/02/17

30/01 : Royal Salute (adv 5/2 BOG) : WON at 9/4
31/01 : Oor Jock (adv 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 2/1
01/02 : Palenville (adv 3/1 BOG) : 2nd at 3/1
02/02 : What A Diva (adv 100/30 BOG) : WON at 6/1
03/02 : Actinpieces (adv 4/1 BOG) : WON at 5/1
04/02 : Verne Castle (adv 9/2 BOG) : WON at 9/4

30/01/17 to 04/02/17 :
4 winning bets from 6 = 66.66% SR
P/L: +16.00pts

January 2017:
10 winners from 26 = 38.46% SR
P/L: +29.50pts
ROI = +113.46%

February 2017:
3 winners from 4 = 75.00% SR
P/L: +14.50pts
ROI = +362.50%

2017 so far:
13 winners from 30 = 43.33% SR
P/L: +44.00pts
ROI = +146.66%

Overall:
453 winners from 1621 = 27.95% S.R
P/L: +416.73pts
ROI: +25.71%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 23rd to 28th January 2017

Two winners, a runner-up, a last placed runner and two fallers certainly made for a mixed week for followers of SotD.

But with winners at 13/2 and 9/2, the good news was that we made another 7pts profit on the week, we broke the 400pts profit barrier and that our next winner will be a landmark 450th for the service that was never intended to be a tipping feature!

Selections & Results : 23/01/17 to 28/01/17

23/01 : Only A Tipple (adv 7/2 BOG) : 2nd at 9/2
24/01 : Robbing The Prey (adv 7/2 BOG) : fell at 7/2
25/01 : Herons Heir (adv 4/1 BOG) : WON at 13/2
26/01 : Western Presence (adv 11/4 BOG) : 7th at 3/1
27/01 : Rich Again (adv 9/2 BOG) : WON at 11/4
28/01 : Kayfleur (adv 5/2 BOG) : fell at 2/1

23/01/17 to 28/01/17 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +7.00pts

January 2017:
9 winners from 24 = 37.50% SR
P/L: +28.00pts
ROI = +116.66%

Overall:
449 winners from 1615 = 27.80% S.R
P/L: +400.73pts
ROI: +24.81%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 16th to 21st January 2017

Three winners (at 13/2, 5/1 & 7/2) and 2 runners-up (at 11/2 & 7/2) from six selections represents another excellent week for followers of the Stat of the Day feature.

A £10 stake on each of them returned a £120 profit on the week and with the two runners-up only narrowly beaten, it was almost a stellar performance.

All of which meant that we hit the point of guaranteed monthly profit on the 19th January and with a possible 8 more selections to come, weather permitting, the worst we're going to get this month is a 13pt return! Past performance suggests we'll hit two more winners and make two more points.

History doesn't always repeat itself, but 9 from 28 and 23pts is certainly where I'm aiming!

Selections & Results : 16/01/17 to 21/01/17

16/01 : Kid Kalanisi (adv 11/4 BOG) : WON at 7/2
17/01 : Plus Jamais (adv 11/2 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
18/01 : Squeeze Me (adv 7/2 BOG) : 6th at 12/1
19/01 : Free Bounty (adv 5/1 BOG) : WON at 3/1
20/01 : Danceintothelight (adv 6/1 BOG) : WON at 13/2
21/01 : Swansway (adv 7/2 BOG) : 2nd at 6/4

16/01/17 to 21/01/17 :
3 winning bets from 6 = 50.00% SR
P/L: +12.00pts

January 2017:
7 winners from 18 = 38.89% SR
P/L: +21.00pts
ROI = +116.66%

Overall:
447 winners from 1609 = 27.78% S.R
P/L: +393.73pts
ROI: +24.47%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2017

Monday's Result :

2.35 Plumpton : Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 Never fluent, mistakes 6th and next, held up well off the pace in rear, gained a place 10th, smooth headway tracking leaders next, 2nd going well before 2 out, upsides and hit 2 out, led between last 2, hit last, driven out to score by almost 3 lengths

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Ayr

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Plus Jamais @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old might well have only won 3 times in his career, but generally races against younger horses, whereas the average age of this contest at just over 9 fits his profile better.

It's also worth taking a quick look at his three previous wins, because...

  • all 3 came here at Ayr (2 on heavy ground, 1 on soft) in Class 4 handicap contests at odds of 6/1 and shorter. All came in the Jan-March period after a break of 10-40 days and when he was ridden by today's jockey Brian Hughes in fields of less than 10 runners!

On top of that is the fact that since the start of 2011, horses competing in heavy ground handicap chases with at least 2 previous heavy ground wins from less than 10 attempts are 115 from 664 (17.3% SR) for 173.7pts (+26.2% ROI) with Class 4 contests supplying 40 winners from 173 (23.1%) for 87pts (+50.3%)

His trainer Iain Jardine doesn't have that many NH runners here, but they are 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 10.37pts (+47.1% ROI) here since the start of 2015.

And the final piece of the puzzle is jockey Brian Hughes, who aside from his 3 wins on Plus Jamais here at Ayr, has 24 wins from 126 (19.1% SR) for 10.2pts (+8.1% ROI) profit at this venue over the last three years, of which...

  • chasers are 13/50 (26%) for 16.5pts (+33%)
  • Class 4 runners are 14/45 (31.1%) for 39.4pts (+87.5%)
  • and Class 4 chasers are 8/22 (36.4%) for 27.6pts (+125.3%)

...providing us with...a 1pt win bet on Plus Jamais @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes, Marathon and Sky amongst others at 5.50pm on Monday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

SotD Update, 9th to 14th January 2017

Another consistent week of results (312124) kept the recent good form going for SotD and with the winners paying out at 5/1 and 4/1, a profit of 5pts was returned, taking us to a healthy 9pts for the month at the halfway point.

And whilst it's pleasing to be able to report profitable weeks, the monthly/quarterly/yearly figures are more important, but we're well on the way to securing January already. We've another 14 opportunities this month and we're already in a position where 1 maybe 2 more winners will be enough. Ideally, our normal strike rate will lick in and we'll grab 4, but let's see how it goes!

Selections & Results : 09/01/17 to 14/01/17

09/01 : Palenville (adv 9/4 BOG) : 3rd at 5/2
10/01 : L'Inganno Felice (adv 5/1 BOG) : WON at 11/4
11/01 : Stay Out Of Court (adv 11/4 BOG) : 2nd at 3/1
12/01 : Midnight Jade (adv 5/2 BOG) : WON at 4/1
13/01 : Speed Freak (adv 7/2 BOG) : 2nd at 3/1
14/01 : Ericht (adv 7/2 BOG) : 4th at 7/2

09/01/17 to 14/01/17 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +5.00pts

January 2017:
4 winners from 12 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +9.00pts
ROI = +75.00%

Overall:
444 winners from 1603 = 27.70% S.R
P/L: +381.73pts
ROI: +23.81%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2017

Saturday's Result :

12.55 Kempton : Ericht @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Jumped left at times, tracked leaders, left in 2nd place 6th, lost 2nd 8th, outpaced and never going from next, tailed off

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

This 6 yr old was a winner last time out three weeks ago under today's jockey Nick Scholfield, who is 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 8.43pts (+30.1% ROI) here at Plumpton since the start of 2015.

And since the start of 2008. trainer Jeremy Scott's handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners within the previous 30 days, "doubled up" on 17 of 70 occasions (24.3% SR) for profits of 37.4pts (+53.4%), including...

  • those priced at 11/8 to 9/1 are 16/50 (32%) for 40.6pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 6-21 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16pts (+44.4%)
  • those that were Jeremy's only runner of the day are 6/29 (20.7%) for 8.33pts (+28.7%)
  • those ridden by Nick Scholfield are 8/27 (29.6%) for 6.97pts (+25.8%)
  • and on Soft ground expected today : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.02pts (+50.2%)

I mentioned just there about This being Jeremy's only runner of the day and I had a closer look and found that he does pretty well when only having the one out. Since the start of 2011, 58 of his 342 (17% SR) "solo flyers" have been winners, returning level stakes profits of 244pts at a verey healthy ROI of 71.4%, of which Nock has ridden 24 winners from 162 (14.8%) for 155.9pts (+96.2%), whilst Class 4 races have seen 28 winners from 153 (18.3%) and 142.9pts (+93.4%) profits.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and about 17 others at 8.35pm on Sunday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard