Posts

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.20 Chelmsford : Red Stripes @ 9/1  WON at 6/1 (Made all, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely to win by three parts of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Colonel Whitehead @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Nursery for 2yo over 5½f on Soft ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 2yo Colt was a winner last time out when clear by two lengths over 5f in a Class 4 contest. 7lb claimer Ellie MacKenzie was riding him for the first time that day and she keeps the ride on a horse that could well look lightly treated off a mark of 71 in a contest that looks far less competitive than the volume of entrants would suggest.

When I was compiling my shortlist (as per my reply in part 2 of SQF), this horse kept cropping up in various reports, so as to not bore you all into submission, I'll briefly highlight five angles that suggest we might at least get a decent run for our hard-earned money (yes, I actually back these runners too!).

So, in order of decreasing sample size...

1. Since the start of 2015, trainer Heather Main is 20 from 113 (17.7% SR) for 115.9pts (+102.6% ROI) when her only runner of the day is a handicapper racing at a venue just 20 to 100 miles from base.

2. And since the start of 2016, Mrs Main's handicappers dropping down 1 class from LTO are 14 from 64 (21.9% SR) for 176.2pts (+275.4% ROI) and these include 8 from 32 (25%) for 75.5pts (+235.9%) from those with less than three week's rest since that higher grade outing.

3. Whilst over the last three seasons, Heather's Class 5 Flat handicappers are 11/47 (23.4% SR) for 36.6pts (+77.9% ROI), from which...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 14.3pts (+62.2%) at Evens to 6/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 24.3pts (+405%) on Soft ground
  • and 1/1 (100%) for 7.45pts (+745%) at Evs to 6/1 on Soft

4. And also over the last three season's Heather's "late summer handicappers" ie Flat + July-September @ 8/1 and shorter are 9/42 (21.4% SR) for 19.9pts (+47.3% ROI), including...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 15.8pts (+92.8%) at Class 5
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.1pts (+301.8%) on Soft ground
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 16.6pts (+803%) on Soft at Class 5

5. And finally for today, jockey Ellie MacKenzie is 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 82.9pts (+460.6% ROI) when riding for Heather Main, including 3 wins from 10 (30%) for 57.71pts (+577.1%) on the Flat...

...all of which led me to... a 1pt win bet on Colonel Whitehead @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.10 Haydock : Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Red Stripes @ 9/1 non-BOG until morning

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a very consistent (although not entirely prolific) 7 yr old gelding who arrives here having made the frame in 8 of his last 10 starts.

He was 3rd last time out, when beaten by 2 lengths in a Class 5 handicap on Good to Soft at Chepstow 16 days ago, a head in front of the 4th placed Pettochside, who his since anded another Class 5 Flat handicap, so I'm hoping the form pans out for our boy who now takes a drop in class on his return to the All-Weather, where he has won 9 of 81 contests.

His 9/81 A/W record includes of relevance today...

  • 9/75 in handicaps
  • 7/65 over 5f
  • 7/64 going left handed
  • 7/63 in blinkers
  • 6/35 on Polytrack
  • 6/25 at Chelmsford
  • 5/20 over course and distance
  • and 3/6 under today's jockey Seamus Cronin

His trainer, Lisa Williamson is also far from prolific if truth be told, but like pretty much most trainers, there is a niche where she does far better than her overall record would suggest. In Lisa's case, I look for the following filters to be in place...

...4-7 yr olds / Chelmsford / Class 3-6 handicaps / 5-7 furlongs / odds of 8-1 and shorter...

And such runners are 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 23.2pts (+85.9% ROI) since the start of 2017 and all of them are males, whilst...

  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 27.2pts (+118.3%) were running at 4-20 dslr
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.3pts (+88.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.78pts (+139.7%) with class droppers
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.07pts (+27.9%) from Red Stripes
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for11.57pts (+128.6%) were beaten by 1-3 lengths LTO
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 8.7pts (+174%) ran on the Flat LTO

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Red Stripes @ 9/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Friday with plenty of 17/2 elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Chelmsford : Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced wide in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, soon edged left, stayed on but beaten by a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Heavy ground worth £9,338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner here last time out, landing the odds on what seems to be default soft (or often worse like today) ground here at Haydock (the NW of the country is pretty wet right now yet again!). He was a length clear of the 4th placed and consistent Alemaratalyoum, who has, as recently as Wednesday of this week, since landed a Class 2 contest on heavy ground off a mark 1lb higher than ours today .

Just 3 UK starts today for this French-raised horse, but he does bring some decent (and winning) form on soft/very soft ground and has also proven that the trip is within him.

Stat-wise, we're going back to the trusted, reliable Tudhope/O'Meara partnership who yet again are having a good year and still continue to produce their winners at prices big enough to beat the bookies, which isn't often the case with well known angles.

That said the duo are 53 from 274 (19.3% SR) for 85.7pts (+31.3% ROI) for 2019, with the bulk of the runners running on the Flat, where they are 49/247 (19.8%) for 83.1pts (+33.7%). I'll admit that I knew they had close to a 1 in 5 record this year on the Flat, but I'm amazed that they're not overbet yet, so it's still an angle to follow.

If you wanted to be more specific, then of the 247 Flat runners this year...

  • 23/114 (20.2%) for 81.1pts (+71.1%) over 7 to 10 furlongs
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 83.1pts (+32.4%) this month alone
  • 8/38 (21%) for 21.1pts (+55.6%) at Class 3
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 36pts (+277.1%) over 7-10f this month
  • 5/20 (25%) for 20.4pts (+102%) in Class 3, 7-10f contests

Whilst slightly more generally, David O'Meara continues to enjoy success here at Haydock, where he is still profitable to back blindly, but with today's race in mind, I just wanted to highlight that over the past four seasons in 6-10.5f handicaps at odds of 5/2 to 9/1 (where we should be today, allowing for some movement), his runners are 9 from 51 (17.7% SR) for 14.4pts (+28.2% ROI), including...

  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 13.8pts (+51.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 13.2pts (+77.4%) at Class 3
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 14.37pts (+95.8%) on Soft/Heavy
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 12.3pts (+136.5%) in September
  • and 1/4 (25%) for 0.38pts (+9.5%) on Heavy...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Young Fire @ 5/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Thursday with plenty of 9/2 elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.15 Perth : Carrolls Milan @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, pushed along after 3 out, went 2nd before 2 out until 2 out, kept on same pace in 3rd)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £5,531 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding well suited to the task ahead who is to be ridden for an in-form jockey riding for an in-form yard that has a good record at this venue. What could possibly go wrong?

Let me briefly add some numbers to the above opening gambit...

  • Jockey Marco Ghiani has 5 winners from 11 in the past week
  • Trainer Stuart Williams is 7 from 28 in the same period
  • and together, they are 11 from 61 (18% SR) for 117.1pts (+191.9% ROI) this year with a 4 from 7 return over the last seven days.

And the yard's record here at Chelmsford? 45 from 209 (21.5% SR) for 64.3pts (+30.7%ROI) wit runners sent off in the 5/4 to 9/1 price range, including...

  • 39/172 (22.7%) for 74.2pts (+43.1%) over trips of a mile and shorter
  • 37/160 (23.1%) for 56.5pts (+35.3%) with male runners
  • 25/101 (24.8%) for 140.1pts (+138.8%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 24/94 (25.5%) for 47.1pts (+50.1%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 64.6pts (+95%) during September to December
  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 23.8pts (+50.8%) at Class 4
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 17.6pts (+51.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 13pts (+433.3%) with Marco Ghiani in the saddle...

...from which, 3-8 yr olds males in 5-8 runners contests of a mile or shorter are 15/50 (30% SR) for 36.8pts (+73.6% ROI) including 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 7.47pts (+62.2%) at Class 4...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Excellent George @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.50 Warwick : Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG PU at 12/1 (Led 2nd, headed 6th, led 8th, ridden and headed approaching 14th, not fluent 16th, mistake and weakened 4 out, pulled up after 3 out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Carrolls Milan @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground worth £9,487 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old mare making a reappearance after 5 months off the track since winning another Class 3 handicap hurdle at this venue, albeit over a 2f longer trip than today.

That win completed a hat-trick for her and she's now got three wins and two runner-up finishes from seven efforts over hurdles and these include (based on today's conditions) form lines of...

  • 22111 in handicaps
  • 22111 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 24111 on Good ground
  • 211 under jockey Connor Brace
  • 11 at Class 3
  • and 21 here at Perth

Despite being based almost 400 miles away in the Cotswolds, trainer Fergal O'Brien has an excellent record on this track with 29 winners from 108 (26.9% SR) generating 36.8pts (+34% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 28/81 (34.6%) for 61.8pts (+76.3%) at odds of 5/4 to 9/1
  • 27/94 (28.7%) for 40.9pts (+43.6%) in races worth less than £11k
  • 21/70 (30%) for 27.3pts (+39%) during 2016-19
  • 20/69 (29%) for 39.9pts (+57.8%) in fields of 7-14 runners
  • 19/75 (25.3%) for 38.7pts (+51.6%) in handicaps
  • 11/47 (23.4%) for 26.6pts (+13.8%) over hurdles
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 29.3pts (+81.3%) at Class 3
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 23.3pts (+97%) with female runners
  • 9/31 (29%) for 21.6pts (+69.7%) during August to September
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.5pts (+55.4%) from LTO winners
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 13.8pts (+92.2%) with runners not raced for 3 months or longer
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.4pts (+174.9%) with Connor Brace in the saddle...

...whilst during 2016-19 in 7-14 runner Class 3/4 handicap hurdle contests worth less than £11k, Fergal's horses are 7 from 13 (53.9% SR) for 27.8pts (+214% ROI) when sent off at odds of 5/4 to 9/1 here at Perth and these include 2 from 3 this year, 2 from 2 for Connor Brace and 1 from 1 for Carroll's Milan...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Carrolls Milan @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 6.45pm on Tuesday, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

2.30 Hamilton : Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Good To Firm ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding has won each of his last four starts (2 over hurdles and 2 over fences) and although he is up 9lbs for a win at Cartmel over this trip LTO 29 days ago, he did win very comfortably by 9 lengths that day and now drops back in class.

The third placed horse that day, Angel of Harlem, was 12 lengths off the pace, yet she has since turned back out to land a Class 3 chase over 3 miles at Uttoxeter by 10 lengths off a mark just one pound lower than our boy runs off today.

His handicap strike rate is excellent at 25.7% via a 9 from 35 record and contains of relevance today...

  • 66.6% (2/3) at this trip
  • 57.1% (4/7) with blinkers and a tongue tie
  • 40% (4/10) with the tongue tie
  • 36% (9/25) at 5-35 days since last run
  • 35.3% (6/17) with blinkers
  • 33.3% (8/24) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 32% (8/25) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 27.3% (3/11) under jockey James Bowen
  • 26.3% (5/19) on Good ground
  • 26.1% (6/23) at 2m7f and beyond
  • 23.5% (4/17) at Class 3 or better
  • and 21.7% (5/23) over fences

He is trained by Peter Bowen, whose handicap chasers are 39 from 210 (18.6% SR) for a very creditable 74.3pts (+35.4% ROI) blindly backed over the last three "summers" and I use that word lightly and refer to the May-September period. Of the 210 runners, the following are of note today...

  • 36/179 (20.1%) for 90.8pts (+50.7%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 36/176 (20.5%) for 96pts (+54.5%) in fields of 5-12 runners
  • 32/168 (19%) for 75.8pts (+45.1%) on Good or Good to Firm
  • 29/150 (19.3%) for 69.5pts (+46.3%) with a tongue tie
  • 28/137 (20.4%) for 87.5pts (+63.9%) beyond 2m6f
  • 17/88 (19.3%) for 40.4pts (+46%) with blinkers
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 23.7pts (+51.4%) with LTO winners
  • and 13/61 (21.3%) for 31.5pts (+51.6%) with both blinkers and tongue tie

...whilst from those angles...in 5-12 runner, Class 2-4 contests beyond 2m6f, Peter's Summer Hcp Chasers are 18 from 71 (25.4% SR) for 97.2pts (+137% ROI) wearing a tongue tie, giving us almost 131% of the original profit from less than 34% of the selections and almost quadrupling the ROI.

And for those who like to drill down further, that 18/71 composite above includes...

  • 9/25 (36%) for 45.9pts (+183.6%) in blinkers
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 22.4pts (+149.5%) from LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.3pts (+289.9%) from LTO winners now in blinkers
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 24.3pts (+607.5%) from LTO winners now in blinkers at odds 4/1 to 8/1...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dr Robin @ 7/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.55pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.15 Newbury : Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG 8th at 8/1 (In touch, weakened 2f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Firstly, a quick apology : I'm a bit later than normal adding my notes this morning. As some of you might know, aside from my work here at Geegeez, I also run an independent travel agency, so in the light of Thomas Cook's sad overnight demise, I've been a little tied up, but my notes were written late last night anyway, I just needed to type them up as follows...

Here we have a 6yr old gelding who was a runner-up when last seen 12 days ago off this mark (63) in a higher grade contest than this. All his five career wins have been over this 6f trip, four of which have been in low value (sub-£3.5k) races and he's manages two wins and two places from seven starts under today's jockey Connor Beasley, who has a good record here at Hamilton.

Trainer Karen McLintock is 5 from 22 (22.7% SR) for 18.3pts (+83.2% ROI) over the last three seasons with her handicappers sent off at 12/1 or shorter here at Hamilton, including 4 from 14 (28.6%) for 12.65pts (+90.4%) with 5/6 yr olds.

Over the last four seasons, Karen has also had a decent record with her class dropping handicappers and those sent off at odds of Evens to 11/1 in non-NH races during that period are 13/35 (23.6% SR) for 37.9pts (+68.8% ROI) from which...

  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 23.6pts (+124.1%) at Class 6
  • 4/8 (50%) for 10.2pts (+127.4%) with 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 21.5pts (+269.1%) within a fortnight of their last run

Meanwhile over the same four season period, Karen's Late Summer (ie Jul-Sept) Flat handicappers are 6/32 (18.75% SR) for 12.5pts (+38.9% ROI) when sent off in the 7/4 to 15/2 odds range.

And finally for today regarding Karen McLintock's 2016-19 record, when her only runner at a track has been a handicapper in the broad Evens to 12/1 price range, she has had 24 winners from 118 (20.3% SR) for 41.8pts (+35.4% ROI) profit, including...

  • 21/105 (20%) for 39.9pts (+38%) as her only runner anywhere that day
  • 6/24 (25%) for 24.9pts (+103.6%) over a 6f trip
  • and 5/20 (20%) for 20.8pts (+104%) in a 6f race with her only runner of the day

But before I go, I just want to revisit my statement that jockey Connor Beasley rides this track quite well. There's no need to take my word for it, the numbers also stack up, as he's 14 from 70 (20% SR) for 60.1pts (+85.9% ROI) in Class 4-6 handicaps here over the last three seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet3654 & SkyBet at 8.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.15 Newbury : Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG 8th at 8/1 (In touch, weakened 2f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Firstly, a quick apology : I'm a bit later than normal adding my notes this morning. As some of you might know, aside from my work here at Geegeez, I also run an independent travel agency, so in the light of Thomas Cook's sad overnight demise, I've been a little tied up, but my notes were written late last night anyway, I just needed to type them up as follows...

Here we have a 6yr old gelding who was a runner-up when last seen 12 days ago off this mark (63) in a higher grade contest than this. All his five career wins have been over this 6f trip, four of which have been in low value (sub-£3.5k) races and he's manages two wins and two places from seven starts under today's jockey Connor Beasley, who has a good record here at Hamilton.

Trainer Karen McLintock is 5 from 22 (22.7% SR) for 18.3pts (+83.2% ROI) over the last three seasons with her handicappers sent off at 12/1 or shorter here at Hamilton, including 4 from 14 (28.6%) for 12.65pts (+90.4%) with 5/6 yr olds.

Over the last four seasons, Karen has also had a decent record with her class dropping handicappers and those sent off at odds of Evens to 11/1 in non-NH races during that period are 13/35 (23.6% SR) for 37.9pts (+68.8% ROI) from which...

  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 23.6pts (+124.1%) at Class 6
  • 4/8 (50%) for 10.2pts (+127.4%) with 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 21.5pts (+269.1%) within a fortnight of their last run

Meanwhile over the same four season period, Karen's Late Summer (ie Jul-Sept) Flat handicappers are 6/32 (18.75% SR) for 12.5pts (+38.9% ROI) when sent off in the 7/4 to 15/2 odds range.

And finally for today regarding Karen McLintock's 2016-19 record, when her only runner at a track has been a handicapper in the broad Evens to 12/1 price range, she has had 24 winners from 118 (20.3% SR) for 41.8pts (+35.4% ROI) profit, including...

  • 21/105 (20%) for 39.9pts (+38%) as her only runner anywhere that day
  • 6/24 (25%) for 24.9pts (+103.6%) over a 6f trip
  • and 5/20 (20%) for 20.8pts (+104%) in a 6f race with her only runner of the day

But before I go, I just want to revisit my statement that jockey Connor Beasley rides this track quite well. There's no need to take my word for it, the numbers also stack up, as he's 14 from 70 (20% SR) for 60.1pts (+85.9% ROI) in Class 4-6 handicaps here over the last three seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Avenue of Stars @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet3654 & SkyBet at 8.20pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2019

Friday's pick was...

5.50 Newcastle : Raashdy @ 4/1 6th at 5/1 (Mid-division, driven and outpaced on outside 3f out, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace, never able to challenge)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is in decent enough form right now, having two wins and a place from her last five starts, including a very comfortable three length success over this trip at Salisbury four weeks ago.

Today's jockey, 7lb claimer Ellie MacKenzie has already ridden five winners from sixteen (31.25% SR) rides for trainer Heather Main generating profits of 84.9pts (+530.7% ROI) and whilst it's clear that the P/L and ROI are skewed by some big-priced winners, the strike rate rate is excellent and includes...

  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 59.7pts (+746.4%) on the Flat
  • 3/6 (50%) for 65.25pts (+1087.5%) during August-November
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 29.2pts (+730%) at Class 4

...once again the above caveat re: high prices applies....

It's also around the later stages of the season that Heather Main does well with her lower grade runners, as over the last four (including this one) Flat seasons, her Class 4 to 6 handicappers are 11/59 (18.6% SR) for 106.6pts (+180.6% ROI) during July to September, including of note today...

  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 79.8pts (+61.8%) at 6-60 days since their last run
  • 8/37 (21.6%) for 16.2pts (+43.9%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 63.8pts (+219.9%) with female runners
  • 7/25 (28%) for 71pts (+284%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 37.1pts (+206.1%) at 7/7.5 furlongs
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 17.2pts (+122.7%) here at Newbury
  • 3/21 (14.3%) for 42.9pts (+204.4%) at Class 4
  • and 3/14 (21.4%) for 51.6pts (+368.2%) in 2019...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Song Of The Isles @ 7/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Unibet, Paddy Power & Betfair (last two are non-BOG until the morning) at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.40 Pontefract : Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Raced wide in touch, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, headed towards finish : the second time in as many days that the winner, Lady of Aran, has done us over after her withdrawal yesterday cost us a 40% reduction in winnings!)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 4/1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding has been placed in each of his last three outings (albeit all over hurdles), winning once and now returns to the All-Weather, where he has run the majority of his races to date, winning 6 of 26 (23.1% SR) for profits of 36.25pts (+139.4% ROI), from which he is...

  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 25.7pts (+122.3%) in handicaps
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 25.7pts (+122.3%) at trips of 1m2f and beyond
  • 4/16 (25%) for 26.7pts (+166.8%) at Class 6
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.33pts (+59.2%) at odds of 9/2 and shorter
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.33pts (+138.8%) at odds shorter than 7/2 (where I think we'll be today)
  • 3/20 (15%) for 2.52pts (+12.6%) on Tapeta
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 27pts (+207.4%) with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 40.6pts (+368.6%) wearing no headgear
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 46.9pts (+938%) after 10 or fewer days rest.

He is trained by Sam England, who is 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) for 35.9pts (+170.5% ROI) since the start of 2016 when her only runner at a track was a handicapper sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter...

...whilst in that same 2016-19 time frame, her handicappers sent off at Evens to 7/1, 6 to 14 days after a top 3 finish are 13/37 (35.1%) for 20.7pts (+56%), including...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.58pts (+135.8%) beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 17.25pts (+191.7%) were 3rd LTO
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.6pts (+280%) on the all-weather...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 4/1 as was available from Betfair, Betfred, Hills, Paddy Power & Totesport (all non-BOG until the morning) at 6.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.40 Yarmouth : Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG (9/5 after a 40p R4!) WON at 7/4 (With leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven over 1f out, soon ridden, stayed on well inside final furlong to by a length and a quarter)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm  ground worth £18,675 to the winner...

Why?...

This in-form three year old filly comes here off the back of three wins on the bounce, all over this trip up at Carlisle with today's jockey Paul Mulrennan in the saddle for two of the wins. She has now won five of her ten starts and whilst this is tougher, up in class and weight, there's still a suggestion that she remains ahead of the handicapper. Her suitability for the task ahead is highlighted by her current career achievements that include...

  • 5/8 over 6f, 5/7 in fields of 5-9 runners and 4/8 after less than a month's rest
  • 4/7 this year, 4/7 in handicaps and 3/5 under Paul Mulrennan
  • 3/5 on Good to Firm, 3/3 at 4/1 and shorter and 1/1 here at Ponty, acquired over course and distance

Her trainer, Michael Dods, has done well with his LTO winners of late with 14 from 46 (30.4% SR) making 40.3pts (+87.6% ROI) over the past 12 months and whilst 46 isn't a huge sample size, there's enough there to make some assumptions about Michael's MO with these LTO winners.

I say this because there are a myriad of profitable angles at play with these 46 runners and I could produce a long list of reasons why this horse is running here today, but I'll hold back the data geek in me and "just" give you 16 of those angles that are relevant today. So from the original 14 from 46, we have...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 49.6pts (+150.4%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 13/29 (44.8%) for 50.5pts (+174.1%) over trips of 6f and shorter
  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 34.6pts (+84.3%) on the Flat
  • 12/26 (46.2%) for 36.3pts (+139.6%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 21.9pts (+66.4%) in handicaps
  • 10/18 (55.6%) for 45.6pts (+253.3%) with 2-6 previous distance wins
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 31.1pts (+148.1%) from previous track winners
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 23.8pts (+103.4%) stepping up by a class or two
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 31.05pts (+207%) in August/September
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 29.2pts (+171.5%) with female runners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 17.7pts (+118.1%) from previous C&D winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 17pts (+113.1%) over a 6f trip
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 11.5pts (+71.6%) with 3 yr olds
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.7pts (+31.4%) with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.8pts (+210%) at Class 2
  • and last but not least...2/2 (100%) for 8.92pts (+446%) in fillies races

As you can expect, the above can be used as a kind of "pick and mix", but this does dilute the sample size each time you add another filter. However you might (or equally might not) be interested to know that from the above...

...Flat hcps + 5-6f + 5/1 and shorter + <30dslr = 7/8 (87.5% SR) for 29.6pts (+369.7% ROI) and all had at least 1 previous distance win...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Gale Force Maya @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday with Bet365 offering a little more, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Redcar : Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Held up mid-division, headway 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner (was 9 last night!), Class 5, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good  ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly has been the bridesmaid on each of her last two starts, but not beaten by much either time. She went down by a neck 3 weeks ago and then by half a length to a better horse six days ago. Both races were at today's class and distance and off today's mark of 74, but Marco Ghiani takes the ride here and his 7lb claim could make all the difference today (especially as her main rival Lady of Aran is now one of the two overnight non-runners).

Trainer Stuart Williams does well turning horses back out quickly and since the start of 2017, his runners racing within a week of their last run are 22/94 (23.4% SR) for 35pts (+37.2% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 21/87 (24.1%) for 31.9pts (+36.7%) in handicaps
  • 21/68 (30.9%) for 42.5pts (+62.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 18/62 (29%) for 40.3pts (+65.1%) on the Flat
  • 18/57 (31.6%) for 53.6pts (+94%) in fields of 5 to 9 runners
  • 13/41 (31.7%) for 50.3pts (+122.6%) during July to September
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 26.2pts (+81.8%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 27.3pts (+59.3%) from 4 to 6 yr olds
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 31.5pts (+121.3%) at the same class & distance as LTO
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 7pts (+53.8%) on Good ground
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103%) with Marco Ghiani in the saddle
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.75pts (+97.3%) here at Yarmouth

...whilst during June to September at odds of 8/1 and shorter in 5-9 runner Flat handicaps, the above 94 runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 35.4pts (+147.3% ROI) profit, from which those racing at the same class/distance as LTO are 5 from 5 for 16.6pts (+332% ROI).

And as the above contains a 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.75pts (+97.3%) snippet here at Yarmouth, I'll finish by mentioning that Stuart Williams' handicappers sent off at Evens to 7/1 are 17/70 (24.3% SR) for 18.3pts (+26.1% ROI) here at Yarmouth over the last six seasons, including...

  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23pts (+120.9%) after a 2nd/3rd place finish LTJO
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 11pts (+60.9%) with females
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.8pts (+77.1%) over this 6f course and distance...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Sky, Hills Betfair & PP at 6.00pm on Tuesday with plenty of 11/4 knocking about too, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Kempton : Celtic Classis @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4,  Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to firm ground worth £5,693 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has made the frame in five of his last six starts, winning twice and was only beaten by three quarters of a length over this course and distance last time out, 24 days ago : that was in a higher grade than today, so hopefully the drop in class will be to his (and our) advantage.

He has a win and two places from four starts at Class 4, a win and two runner-up finishes from his last three runs on good to firm, he has a win and a runner-up place from two previous visits to Redcar and was a runner-up on the only other occasion that David Nolan rode him.

His trainer David O'Meara is 38 from 151 (25.2% SR) for 70.8pts (+46.9% ROI) in Redcar handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 (where I do most of my betting), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 36/139 (28.1%) for 70.1pts (+50.4%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 29/92 (31.5%) for 72.7pts (+79%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 22/87 (25.3%) for 43.8pts (+50.3%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 16/45 (35.6%) for 42.5pts (+94.4%) with class droppers
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 37.2pts (+82.7%) with 4 yr olds
  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 34.4pts (+90.4%) over trips of 8 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.6pts (+50.2%) at Class 4
  • and 10/46 (21.7%) for 16.6pts (+36.2%) over the last three seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG as was available in half a dozen places at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Chelmsford : Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway and switched right over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Since the application of blinkers four starts ago, this 3 yr old gelding has enjoyed an upturn in form (and who doesn't want one of those?), finishing 1432 in those races and only beaten by a length over this trip last time when finishing strongly in what looks a stronger contest than today.

That was his first crack at today's trip, but he has already won at this grade over 1m3.5f, so I'd expect another bold effort today.

His jockey today is Rossa Ryan, who comes here in good touch with 9 winners from 46 (19.6% SR) generating 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last fortnight, including a nice 8/1 winner yesterday (Sunday) at Ffos Las and when riding for today's trainer (Paul Cole) over the last two seasons, Mr Ryan has 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) for 36.3pts (+125.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • 6/24 (25%) for 37pts (+154%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 20.8pts (+109.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 36pts (+257.1%) at Class 5/6
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 36.8pts (+306.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) over trips of 10 to 12 furlongs
  • 2/4 (50%) for 8.6pts (+215%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 1.54pts (+77%) over this 1m4f trip

...whilst Rossa + Cole + 3yos + C5/6 hcps @ 8/1 max = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15pts (+375% ROI) with 2 winners from 3 at Class 6.

There's a good chance of our pick going off as favourite today, but whilst it's foolish to blindly back favourites, over 30% of them do win, so it's just a case (as ever) of backing the right ones! With that in mind, you could do a lot worse than backing the ones with Rossa Ryan on their backs, as his record on All-Weather favs stands at 25 from 64 (39.1% SR) and a £10 bet on each would have made you £149.30 profit at an ROI of 23.3%, including...

  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 14.33pts (+43.4%) on 2/3 yr olds
  • 12/28 (42.9%) for 15pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 5.74pts (+18.5%) at Class 6
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.91pts (+26.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.16pts (+28.7%) in 3yo contests

...whilst on 2/3 yr olds at Class 6 on Polytrack, he is 3/7 (42.9% SR) 5.19pts (+74.1% ROI).

And finally, back to trainer Paul Cole, whose runners are 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 111.6pts (+210.6% ROI) over trips of 9.5 to 12 furlongs during the past 12 months and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 56.7pts (+149.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 35pts (+166.8%) over trips of 1m3f to 1m4f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) with Rossa Ryan in the saddle
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 31.4pts (+348.7%) at Class 6
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 79.3pts (+661.1%) on the All-Weather...

...and with 3 yr olds winning 4 of 19 (21% SR) for 31.56pts (+166.1% ROI) over trips of 11/12 furlongs...

...I'm happy to place... a 1pt win bet on Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday with Stoke City's backers Bet365 offering a little bit more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Chelmsford : Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway and switched right over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Since the application of blinkers four starts ago, this 3 yr old gelding has enjoyed an upturn in form (and who doesn't want one of those?), finishing 1432 in those races and only beaten by a length over this trip last time when finishing strongly in what looks a stronger contest than today.

That was his first crack at today's trip, but he has already won at this grade over 1m3.5f, so I'd expect another bold effort today.

His jockey today is Rossa Ryan, who comes here in good touch with 9 winners from 46 (19.6% SR) generating 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last fortnight, including a nice 8/1 winner yesterday (Sunday) at Ffos Las and when riding for today's trainer (Paul Cole) over the last two seasons, Mr Ryan has 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) for 36.3pts (+125.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • 6/24 (25%) for 37pts (+154%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 20.8pts (+109.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 36pts (+257.1%) at Class 5/6
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 36.8pts (+306.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) over trips of 10 to 12 furlongs
  • 2/4 (50%) for 8.6pts (+215%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 1.54pts (+77%) over this 1m4f trip

...whilst Rossa + Cole + 3yos + C5/6 hcps @ 8/1 max = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15pts (+375% ROI) with 2 winners from 3 at Class 6.

There's a good chance of our pick going off as favourite today, but whilst it's foolish to blindly back favourites, over 30% of them do win, so it's just a case (as ever) of backing the right ones! With that in mind, you could do a lot worse than backing the ones with Rossa Ryan on their backs, as his record on All-Weather favs stands at 25 from 64 (39.1% SR) and a £10 bet on each would have made you £149.30 profit at an ROI of 23.3%, including...

  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 14.33pts (+43.4%) on 2/3 yr olds
  • 12/28 (42.9%) for 15pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 5.74pts (+18.5%) at Class 6
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.91pts (+26.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.16pts (+28.7%) in 3yo contests

...whilst on 2/3 yr olds at Class 6 on Polytrack, he is 3/7 (42.9% SR) 5.19pts (+74.1% ROI).

And finally, back to trainer Paul Cole, whose runners are 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 111.6pts (+210.6% ROI) over trips of 9.5 to 12 furlongs during the past 12 months and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 56.7pts (+149.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 35pts (+166.8%) over trips of 1m3f to 1m4f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) with Rossa Ryan in the saddle
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 31.4pts (+348.7%) at Class 6
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 79.3pts (+661.1%) on the All-Weather...

...and with 3 yr olds winning 4 of 19 (21% SR) for 31.56pts (+166.1% ROI) over trips of 11/12 furlongs...

...I'm happy to place... a 1pt win bet on Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday with Stoke City's backers Bet365 offering a little bit more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

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Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!