Posts

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

4.20 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/4 (Held up in mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, ran on to take 2nd near finish, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has finished 161 in his last three runs, all under today's jockey CJ McGovern, who once again claims 3lbs. The latest of those runs was a course and distance success here where our boy was more comfortable than a one length success would suggest, having been clear for the best part of the final furlong.

That win took his career stats to a point that includes the following...

  • 5 wins & 3 places from 25 over 6 furlongs (2w, 3pl from 9 on A/W)
  • 2 from 6 in a visor (2/3 on A/W)
  • 2 from 5 under CJ McGovern (2/3 on A/W)

His trainer, Julie Camacho, isn't exactly a household name outside of her own home and she's not what you'd call prolific, but she's quietly pretty good at getting certain horses to win certain races and although it would have been a bit of a rollercoaster ride, you might be surprised to hear/read that blindly backing all her handicappers over the last six years would have been a profitable venture!

Numerically, you'd be looking at 66 winners from 589 runners with the resultant 11.2% strike rate yielding 66.05pts profit at an ROI of 11.2%. Neither the SR nor the ROI are earth shattering on the face of it, but to make more than 10% from a "set & forget" approach is actually very good. To see which types of runners/races work best for Julie...

  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 63/554 (11.4%) for 71.7pts (+12.9%)
  • males are 55/485 (11.3%) for 115.2pts (+23.8%)
  • over trips shorter than a mile : 52/368 (14.1%) for 188.1pts (+51.1%)
  • Mondays to Thursdays : 36/314 (11.5%) for 50.3pts (+16%)
  • Class 5 : 26/247 (10.5%) for 69pts (+28%)
  • in 2018 : 21/136 (15.4%) for 17.9pts (+13.2%)
  • over 6f : 14/106 (13.2%) for 77pts (+72.6%)
  • November to February : 15/100 (15%) for 46.4pts (+46.4%)
  • on Mondays : 12/89 (13.5%) for 61.5pts (+69.1%)
  • using a jockey claiming 3lbs : 18/84 (21.4%) for 88.2pts (+105%)
  • 6 yr olds are 13/80 (16.25%) for 26pts (+32.5%)
  • and those ridden by CJ McGovern are 3/10 (30%) for 17.7pts (+177%)

...and from the above... Since the start of 2013, Julie Camacho's male handicappers racing over trips shorter than a mile for a prize of less than £13,000 are 41 from 276 (14.9% SR) for profits of 225.3pts (+81.6% ROI), from which her 3-6 yr olds are 37/229 (16.2%) for 243.2pts (+106.2% ROI) : an angle worth noting and popping in your portfolio.

...and which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Burtonwood @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor & Unibet at 6.05pm on Sunday evening with an extra quarter of a point available from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

2.30 Cheltenham : Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Pressed leader until 10th, mistake 18th, weakened after 3 out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?

Five of the last six runs for this 4 yr old gelding have been here on the 5f tapeta strip at Newcastle and he has finished 11221 in those contests with the latest course and distance success coming 10 days ago under today's jockey Cameron Hardie who has 2 wins and 2 places from 4 rides of the five above, whilst the horse is 3/3 at Class 6 in those same five C&D runs.

As well as being in excellent form, this multiple C&D winner (see your horses for courses report) was flagged up in one of my saved systems, namely...

...2013-18 / Class 4-6 / LTO winners at 6-4 to 16-1 by a head or more / now running at same class as a C&D win in the past 10 days...

Such runners are 190/551 (34.5% SR) and have generated 112.4pts at an ROI of 20.4% backed blindly, from which...

  • Same C&D as LTO : 186/539 (34.5%) for 107.7pts (+20%)
  • in handicaps : 180/525 (34.3%) for 100.9pts (+19.2%)
  • those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 186/498 (37.4%) for 123.6pts (+24.8%)
  • males are 148/427 (34.7%) for 93.5pts (+21.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 97/296 (32.8%) for 34.2pts (+11.6%)
  • on the A/W : 102/292 (34.9%) for 60pts (+20.5%)
  • over the minimum 5f trip : 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.5pts (+39.6%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 8/20 (40%) for 5.9pts (+29.5%)

...and a composite based on the above? 

...in handicaps over same course, distance and class with males shorter than 7/1 at Class 5&6 =  110/291 (37.8% SR) for 73.3pts (+25.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Another Angel @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Skybet & 10Bet at 5.50pm on Friday evening, although those with the option to do so, could take 10/3 BOG from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.15 Taunton : Capeland @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway before 3 out, blundered 3 out, kept on and held towards finish, going down by half a length)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Grade 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £33762 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner of a similar quality Grade 3 handicap chase here at Cheltenham over 3m3.5f when last seen 27 days ago, so stamina shouldn't be an issue today, which isn't surprising considering that offspring of Shirocco are 14 from 115 (12.2% SR) for 21.5pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly at trips of 2m6f to 3m3.5f since 2015, from which...

  • those competing for prizes below £35k are 14/108 (13%) for 28.5pts (+26.4%)
  • males are 11/98 (11.2%) for 22.2pts (+22.6%)
  • 11-45 days since last run = 10/75 (13.3%) for 14.1pts (+18.8%)
  • 6-8 yr olds are 11/71 (15.5%) for 36.4pts (+51.2%)
  • on Good / Good to Soft : 11/71 (15.5%) for 33.8pts (+47.6%)
  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 11/69 (15.9%) for 32.1pts (+46.5%)
  • in 2018 alone : 7/42 (16.7%) for 26pts (+62%)
  • and at 3m1.5f to 3m3.5f : 4/21 919%) for 25.4pts (+120.9%)

Our trainer is Philip Hobbs (so you won't be surprised to see Richard Johnson in the saddle, but I won't bore you by repeating the well known/worn trainer jockey stats!) and Mr Hobbs is in good form again right now, with 13 winners from 44 already this month and that 29.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of some 109.4pts (+248.6% ROI) to betfair SP, including...

  • at odds of 9/1 and shorter : 12/35 (34.3%) for 31.7pts (+90.5%)
  • chasers are 7/18 (38.9%) for 117.5pts (+625.8%)
  • Sub 10/1 chasers are 6/14 (42.9%) for 34.8pts (+248.6%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 5/8 (62.5%) for 24.7pts (+309%) (all were chasers)
  • and sub-10/1 runners at 3m and beyond = 5/7 (71.4%) for 25.7pts (+367.4%)  (all were chasers)

And finally, a quick look at Philip Hobbs excellent record here over fences at NH HQ, particularly with those with a bit (but not too much!) of market support behind them. What I look for is a Philip Hobbs Cheltenham handicap chaser sent off longer than 3/1 but still at single digit odds and in numerical terms, we have...

...Hobbs + Chelts HC Chasers @ 10/3 to 9/1 = 14/55 (25.5% SR) for 61.7pts (+112.2% ROI) since the start of 2012 and these include of relevance today...

  • ridden by Richard Johnson : 12/39 (30.8%) for 59.2pts (+151.7%)
  • previous Chelts winners are 7/26 (26.9%) for 26pts (+100%)
  • Class 1 = 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+97.9%)
  • aiming at prizes of £25k to £35k : 9/23 (39.1%) for 54.8pts (+238.2%)
  • Grade 3 = 5/18 (27.8%) for 29.5pts (+163.9%)
  • 8 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 28.2pts (+166.1%)
  • and LTO winners are 4/9 (44.4%) for 24.2pts (+268.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock The Kasbah @ 11/2 BOG, as offered by Hills, Ladbrokes & Coral at 5.25pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

12.50 Southwell : Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/4 (In touch, headway to chase leaders 4 out, led 3 out, strongly challenged after last, held on gamely to win by half a length)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Capeland @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m2f on Good ground worth £9357 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 year old gelding has been a model of consistency over the past 12 months with a form line reading 222211, with the last five of those six runs representing his entire chasing career. The wins were both at today's Class 3 and over 1m7.5f and 2m4f respectively, so he's at the right level and a 2n2f trip shouldn't be beyond him, especially as he won over hurdles at 2m2.5f.

His trainer Paul Nicholls isn't generally a man you can follow blindly and make a profit from, despite consistently firing in winners : they just get overbet. However, there are some areas where you can benefit.

In the the past 14 days, Paul's runners are 11/38 (29% SR) for 31.8pts (+83.8% ROI), including those ridden by today's jockey Harry Cobden at 8/21 (38.1%) for 19.3pts (+92.1%), whilst his chasers are 4/17 (23.5%) for 19.9pts (+117.1%).

Another successful angle at play today is the Nicholls / Cobden / Taunton combination with horses priced shorter than 10/3, which currently stands at 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 3.9pts (+22.9% ROI).

More generally, however, and with a "proper" sample size for our purpose is the fact that...since the start of 2014 in UK Class 1-4 handicap chases, horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter, 6 to 30 days after winning a novice chase LTO are 176 from 630 (27.9% SR) for 87.4pts (+13.9% ROI), from which the following data subsets are relevant...

  • males are 165/581 (28.4%) for 92.1pts (+15.96%)
  • winners in a handicap LTO : 152/530 (28.7%) for 76.9pts (+14.5%)
  • Class 3 : 78/285 (27.4%) for 36.7pts (+12.9%)
  • on Good ground : 78/241 (30.3%) for 41.1pts (+17.1%)
  • in December : 22/75 (29.3%) for 15.5pts (+20.7%)
  • at Taunton : 5/15 (33.3%) for 0.16pts (+1.04%)
  •  and with Harry Cobden on board : 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.09pts (+13.6%)

...and Class 3 males on good ground who won a Handicap Novice Chase LTO are 28/78 (35.9% SR) for 25.6pts (+32.9% ROI)...

Finally, considering that our pick is likely to attract market attention (not because I picked it, mind!) and is quite likely to be sent off as favourite, it's worth knowing that backing favs isn't always a bad thing. Especially as since 2012, favourites in Taunton handicap chases are 53 from 139 (38.1% SR) for 28.4pts (+20.5% ROI) backed blindly, including...

  • those rested for 45 days or less : 46/117 (39.3%) for 24.8pts (+21.2%)
  • LTO winners are 23/38 (60.5%) for 27.1pts (+71.3%)
  • and those who won LTO in the previous 45 days are 21/35 (60%) for 22.5pts (+64.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Capeland @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Hills, 10Bet & SportPesa at 6.25pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

PPS Thursday's selection will appear later on Wednesday than usual, I've got an appointment I can't get out of!

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

12.50 Southwell : Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Towards rear, pushed along 4f out, ridden and headway entering final 2f, no impression final furlong) - never really travelled well to be honest and was being bumped along from an early point.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Hexham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft (Heavy in places) ground worth £4484 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a decent enough runner-up when last seen 3 weeks ago, that was over course and distance and was only his second visit to Hexham (placed both times), first crack at the minimum trip, first effort over fences and first time with today's jockey Brian Hughes in the saddle, as well as his first run in over 25 weeks.

With that pipe-opener under his belt and running in similar condition to LTO, allied to a drop in class and weight, there are plenty of reasons to be confident about a decent run again today.

His yard is going well enough right now too, trainer Nicky Richards had a couple of winners at relatively-nearby Kelso last Sunday and although he doesn't send many runners on the short 45 mile trip from his Cumbrian HQ over to Hexham, those that come here tend to fare pretty well with his handicappers winning 7 of 27 (25.9% SR) for 11.01pts (+40.8% ROI) since the start of 2013, including the following of relevance today...

  •  at odds of 7/1 and shorter : 6/18 (33.3%) for 10.36pts (+57.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 8.91pts (+63.6%)
  • in chases : 3/14 (21.4%) for 4.63pts (+33.1%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.95pts (+135.9%)
  • dropping down a class : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.24pts (+47.1%)
  • 6 yr olds : 4/7 (57.1%) for 19.82pts (+283.1%)
  • and those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/7 (42.9%) for 4.19pts (+59.9%)

We've got soft ground that's going to be heavy in places today and a 7-runner field largely bereft on any discernible form in such conditions, but not our boy. He has a win and a place from three runs on soft and was placed in one of his two heavy ground runs, but that's not a surprise when you consider the fact that since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards' handicappers are 51 from 233 (21.9% SR) for 65.2pts (+28% ROI) when backed blindly on any ground deemed soft or worse. Mind you, he does train his horses in one of the wettest locations in England!

Of these 233 mudlarks, with today's race in mind...

  • males are 49/216 (22.7%) for 72.7pts (+33.7%)
  • chasers are 22/105 (21%) for 27pts (+25.8%)
  • in December / January : 20/90 (22.2%) for 47.9pts (+46.5%)
  • top 2 finish LTO : 25/84 (29.8%) for 27pts (+32.1%)
  • within 25 days of last run : 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.9pts (+75.2%)
  • 6 yr olds are 15/50 (30%) for 57pts (+54%)
  • ridden by Brian Hughes : 2/5 (40%) for 13.1pts (+262.2%)
  • and here at Hexham : 2/4 (50%) for 0.42pts (+10.6%)

...and based around the above categories : Since the start of 2014, Nicky Richards' 5-10 yr old male handicap chasers racing on soft/heavy ground in December to February, 2 to 8 weeks after a top 4 finish LTO are 14 from 29 (48.3% SR) for 52.7pts (+181.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.35pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Hexham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

PPS Thursday's selection will appear later on Wednesday than usual, I've got an appointment I can't get out of!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.30 Lingfield : Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/2 (Led, not fluent 3 out, soon headed, rallied after last, stayed on under pressure to lead again last strides to win by 0.75 lengths) - keep an eye on this old girl : she's even better over further in the mud!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes  for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner last time out, 11 days ago and now has 4 wins and 5 places from 13 runs on this track, including...

  • 4/10 (40%) over course and distance
  • 4/8 (50%) competing for less than £8,000
  • 3/6 (50%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 3/3 (100%) in November/December

His trainer, Michael Herrington's LTO winners are 9/43 (20.9% SR) for 9.21pts (+21.4% ROI) profit since 2013 when sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 7/1 and these include...

  • on the A/W : 7/31 (22.6%) for 12.88pts (+41.6%)
  • Class 5/6 : 8/28 (28.6%) for 14.72pts (+52.6%)
  • 2016-18 : 6/28 (21.4%) for 8.21pts (+29.3%)
  • 5/6 furlongs : 5/27 (18.5%) for 5.81pts (+21.5%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 6/19 (31.6%) for 14.57pts (+76.7%)
  • and in December : 3/4 (75%) for 2.24pts (+306%)

...whilst since 2011, Michael's runners in claimers sent off at 6/4 to 5/1 are 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 6.09pts (+33.8% ROI), from which...

  • on the A/W = 4/15 (26.7%) for 4.56pts (+30.4%)
  • 11-30 days since last run = 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.09pts (+72.1%)
  • carrying 8-13 to 9-07 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.09pts (+119%)
  • rated (OR) 66-79 = 5/11 (45.5%) for 13.09pts (+119%)
  • previous C&D runners = 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.57pts (+77.9%)
  • and over 6f = 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%)

And although, they're fairly relatively small sample sizes, I do think there's a distinct MO at play, especially as those rated 66-79 carrying 8-13 to 9-07, 11-30 days after their last run are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 17.09pts (+244.1% ROI), which can be further analysed as follows...

  • A/W : 4 from 6
  • prev C&D runners : 4/5
  • A/W & prev C&D runners : 4/5
  • over 6f : 3/5
  • over 6f on A/W : 3/5
  • prev C&D runners over 6f : 3/4
  • prev C&D runners over 6f on A/W : 3 from 4, all since October 2015...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kommander Kirkup @ 4/1 BOG, as offered by half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Chepstow : Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Held up and behind, steady progress 8th, went 2nd approaching 5 out, challenged 3 out, ridden to lead flat, stayed on to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 4-runner, Class 3, Veterans Handicap Chase  for 9yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner... 

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

Why?

Here we have a 10 yr old mare, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown by her following achievements to date...

  • 5 wins and 3 places from 15 on soft/heavy ground
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 11 under jockey Paddy Brennan
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 on heavy ground
  • 4 wins from 4 at odds of 3/1 and shorter

Her trainer, Fergal O'Brien, is 11 from 37 (29.7% SR) for 29.9pts (+80.7% ROI) with 10yr old chasers sent off at Evens to 9/1 since the start of 2013, from which Class 3 runners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 28.1pts (+200.8%).

In addition to the above...O'Brien + Brennan + Hcp Chases + 2014-18 = 47/255 (18.4% SR) for 64.5pts (+25.3% ROI), from which...

  • over 2m4f to 3m4f : 40/196 (20.4%) for 67.1pts (+34.2%)
  • November-April : 27/128 (21.1%) for 81.1pts (+63.4%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f in November-April : 23/101 (22.8%) for 76.4pts (+75.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 22/91 (24.2%) for 72.3pts (+79.5%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 : 18/71 (25.4%) for 66.1pts (+93.1%)
  • at Class 3 in Nov-Apr : 13/51 (25.5%) for 61.9pts (+121.4%)

...and over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 in November-April = 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+142.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Chepstow : Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Held up and behind, steady progress 8th, went 2nd approaching 5 out, challenged 3 out, ridden to lead flat, stayed on to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 4-runner, Class 3, Veterans Handicap Chase  for 9yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a 10 yr old mare, whose suitability for the task ahead is shown by her following achievements to date...

  • 5 wins and 3 places from 15 on soft/heavy ground
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 11 under jockey Paddy Brennan
  • 3 wins from 7 at Class 3
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 on heavy ground
  • 4 wins from 4 at odds of 3/1 and shorter

Her trainer, Fergal O'Brien, is 11 from 37 (29.7% SR) for 29.9pts (+80.7% ROI) with 10yr old chasers sent off at Evens to 9/1 since the start of 2013, from which Class 3 runners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 28.1pts (+200.8%).

In addition to the above...O'Brien + Brennan + Hcp Chases + 2014-18 = 47/255 (18.4% SR) for 64.5pts (+25.3% ROI), from which...

  • over 2m4f to 3m4f : 40/196 (20.4%) for 67.1pts (+34.2%)
  • November-April : 27/128 (21.1%) for 81.1pts (+63.4%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f in November-April : 23/101 (22.8%) for 76.4pts (+75.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 22/91 (24.2%) for 72.3pts (+79.5%)
  • over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 : 18/71 (25.4%) for 66.1pts (+93.1%)
  • at Class 3 in Nov-Apr : 13/51 (25.5%) for 61.9pts (+121.4%)

...and over 2m4f to 3m4f at Class 3 in November-April = 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 58.3pts (+142.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jennys Surprise @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2018

Friday's Pick was...

12.50 Sandown : Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Held up in touch, headway 8th, ridden to chase leaders before 3 out, went 3rd next, kept on same pace, no impression with front pair)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m on Heavy ground worth £7408 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding, the only previous winner at this trip in this field (has won over C&D) and is trained by Philip Hobbs, whose runners seem to have been in great form of late ie...

Last 30 days = 20 from 98 (20.4% SR) for 200.2pts (+204.3% ROI), including 8/31 (25.8%) for 102.5pts (+330.8%) in chases

Last 14 days = 10/32 (31.25%) for 93.3pts (+291.5%), inc 5/10 (50%) for 101.35pts (+1013.5%) over fences

And the past 7 days = 6/14 (42.9%) for 97.5pts (+696.2%) with 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 99.7pts (+1994%) over the larger obstacles.

Note : the P/L and resultant ROI figures are above are skewed by a 50/1 winner last Saturday that paid out at over 90/1 on the exchanges, but that doesn't detract from the strike rates.

In addition to very good recent form, Mr Hobbs' handicap chasers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 14.4pts (+15% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 23pts (+42.7%)
  • at trips of 3m and beyond : 9/51 (17.6%) for 23.5pts (+46%)
  • on heavy ground : 4/28 (14.3%) for 18.8pts (+67.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/25 (24%) for 8.24pts (+33%)
  • and 6 yr olds are 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.3pts (+87.9%)

...whilst those sent off at 2/1 to 6.1 over today's course and distance are 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.09pts (+58%) including 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 5.45pts (+68.1%) on heavy ground.

Finally, as it's Saturday, it would be remiss of me not to mention Mr Hobbs' excellent record in Saturday handicaps. Saturday racing is ultra competitive and many people (owners, trainers and punters alike) find it hard to have a winner on these days, but if you were to follow Philip Hobbs in Saturday Class 1-3 handicap chases from October to January inclusive, you could do pretty well for yourself.

Since the start of 2013, such beasts (all male) are 32 from 151 (21.2% SR) for 93.5pts (+61.9%ROI), a remarkable record that includes of relevance today...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 10/1 : 29/114 (25.4%) for 88pts (+77.2%)
  • over trips of 3m/3m1f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 20.6pts (+49%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/38 (23.7%) for 18.95pts (+49.9%)
  • in December : 8/38 (21%) for 30.8pts (+81.1%)
  • on heavy  :6/27 (22.2%) for 13.27pts (+49.1%)
  • at Chepstow : 5/24 (20.8%) for 6.93pts (+28.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.22pts (+59.1%)
  • and in 2018 alone : 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.45pts (+137.1%)

...and from the above, those sent off at 2/1 to 10/1 over trips of 3m/3m1f are 10/35 (28.6% SR) for 27.6pts (+78.8% ROI), including 7 from 14 (50%) for 17.74pts (+126.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Steely Addition @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.05pm on Friday evening, whilst an extra half a point was available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

2.15 Wincanton : Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Chased leaders, every chance 3 out, fell on landing 2 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Good To Soft ground worth £9384 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from just three efforts over fences so far and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Ludlow (by 8l) 22 days ago and then at Musselburgh (by 7l) 11 days later/ago with today's jockey Alan Johns in the saddle on both occasions.

Stat-wise, he became of interest as a qualifier of one of my micros that looks at LTO winners of handicap chases and whilst the strategy might look complicated in print, it's actually pretty straightforward and logical ie...

...Since the start of 2013 : males running in Class 3/4, UK Handicap Chases shorter than 3.5 miles on ground with the word "Good" in the official description who won a handicap chase LTO less than three weeks earlier and aren't now dropping in class are 238 from 872 (27.3% SR) for 155.7pts (+17.9% ROI)...

And as 872 bets over 5 yrs from just one angle is too many for lots of people, there are various angles you could attack this strategy from, but I'll just give you ten that are all relevant today...

  • at SP odds of 6/4 to 10/1 : 172/686 (25.1%) for 189.6pts (+27.6%)
  • 6 to 15 days after that LTO win : 157/517 (30.4%) for 131.4pts (+25.4%)
  • won by 2 to 10 lengths LTO : 129/411 (31.4%) for 152.2pts (+37%) this is a good/simple filter : just 47% of the original bets for only 3.5pts less profit!
  • at Class 3 : 88/361 (24.4%) for 76pts (+21%)
  • stepping up in class : 93/340 (27.4%) for 70.1pts (+20.6%)
  • on good to soft : 71/270 (26.3%) for 61.5pts (+22.8%)
  • in 2018 : 40/122 (32.8%) for 35.7pts (+29.3%)
  • at 1m7.5f/2m : 36/94 (38.3%) for 58.1pts (+61.8%)
  • trained by Tim Vaughan : 5/12 (41.7%) for 3.07pts (+25.6%)
  • and here at Sandown : 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.3pts (+78.7%)

You can, of course, combine the above to make a composite micro, but you do dilute the sample size each time you add a new filter, but if you wanted say around 15% of the original number of bets, then...Class 3 at 6/4 to 10/1, 6-15 dslr, won by a neck to 10L LTO = 35/123 (28.5% SR) for 78.4pts (+63.7% ROI), including 6 from 15 (40%) for 10.05pts (+67%) this year alone...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 11/4 BOG , as offered by Bet365, 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.25pm on Thursday evening, whilst an extra quarter of a point was available from SkyBet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

12.50 Lingfield : Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, led after 2 out, headed last, stayed on same pace flat) Ran out of steam on ground that was nowhere near Good to Soft (Good in places) as declared by the BHA/course.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.35 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m3f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding is 1112 in his last four starts and was only beaten by two lengths LTO 17 days ago, despite stepping up in both trip and class. He's now back down on both counts to favoured conditions and looks well set for another good run today.

He was flagged up on one of the angles I've got stored from the Geegeez Query Tool, where I look for Class 4/5 handicap chasers to back. In this instance, trainer Johnny Farrelly's C4/5 hcp chasers at odds of 15/8 to 11/2 (my preferred betting range) are 18 from 42 (42.9% SR) for 41.6pts (+99.1% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these include of relevance today...

  • males at 16/35 (45.7%) for 37.4pts (+106.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 8/18 (44.4%) for 19.6pts (+108.7%)
  • those dropping in trip : 7/15 (46.7%) for 15.67pts (+104.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 10/14 (71.4%) for 28.4pts (+202.5%)
  • at trips of 3m1.5f to 3m4f : 8/11 (72.7%) for 28.12pts (+255.6%)
  • those dropping in class : 5/10 (50%) for 11.46pts (+114.6%)
  • in 2018 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 7.31pts (+81.2%)
  • and those ridden by Noel Fehily are 3/5 (60%) for 8.17pts (+163.4%)

In addition to that fairly compelling data above, since the start of 2017 in the proper NH season, Johnny's LTO beaten favourites are 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 21.89pts (+218.9% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bermeo @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

12.50 Lingfield : Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (In touch, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead closing stages, ridden out to win by half a length)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good To Soft worth £12086 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding made the switch to the bigger obstacles 7 months ago and has made the frame in 6 of 7 efforts so far, winning twice. His best performance was arguably at Wincanton last time out when a runner-up by just 2.5 lengths in a Listed race. There was no disgrace in the defeat 25 days ago, as he went down to a Paul Nicholls-trained favourite (we know how well they do!) with previous winning form at Gr2 and he was 11 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

Stat-wise, I'll be keeping it relatively simple today, focusing on trainer Tom George, whose runners are 4 from 19 (21.05% SR) over the last fortnight, but more pertinently are 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 26.88pts (+67.2% ROI) in chases here at Ludlow when sent off at 5/1 or shorter since the start of 2013 and these include of relevance today...

  • males @ 16/39 (41%) for 27.88pts (+71.5%)
  • in hcps : 15/38 (39.5%) for 26.75pts (+70.4%)
  • within 2 months of last run : 12/33 (36.4%) for 18.82pts (+57%)
  • November to April = 15/32 (46.9%) for 32.99pts (+103.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 13/31 (41.9%) for 27.51pts (+88.7%)
  • and 5-7 yr olds are 12/25 (48%) for 25.58pts (+102.3%)

And a composite from the above?

In Class 3 handicaps during December to April, 5-7 yr old males rested for less than 7 weeks are 8 from 12 (66.6% SR) for 25.17pts (+209.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sumkindofking @ 11/4 BOG, as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2018

Monday's Pick was...

5.15 Wolverhampton : Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG 11th at 4/1 (Report to follow, but a switch of tactics to front-running was clearly a poor decision)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

12.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was a comfortable 4 lengths winner in a similar Class 6, 6 furlong handicap at Chelmsford when last seen 26 days ago and Fink Hill was four lengths behind her in fourth place, but has since reappeared to win a Class 5 contest, so I'm hoping/expecting the form to hold out.

The Dean Ivory/Robert Winston trainer/jockey combo has had a good year so far, combining for 10 wins from 37 (27% SR) and 28.2pts (+76.1% ROI) profit in A/W handicaps since New Year, including...

  • 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 5.84pts (+53.1%) over 6f
  • 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 13.67pts (+227.8%) at Class 6
  • and 4 from 5 (80%) for 29.9pts (+598%) here at Lingfield, which is excellent.

And the bigger picture?

Dean Ivory + Lingfield A/W handicaps + 7/4 to 10/1 + 2013 to 2018 = 22/95 (23.2% SR) for 61.5pts (+64.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 6 = 8/40 (20%) for 19.9pts (+49.7%)
  • 6 furlongs C&D = 10/36 (27.8%) for 23.6pts (+65.7%)
  • Robert Winston = 7/33 (33.3%) for 13.8pts (+42%)
  • November/December = 7/28 (25%) for 28.2pts (+100.8%)
  • females = 6/25 (24%) for 19.75pts (+79%)
  • 4 yr olds = 6/23 (26.1%) for 23.8pts (+103.3%)
  • 2018 = 6/15 (40%) for 35.4pts (+236.1%)
  • and LTO winners = 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.4pts (+109.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Wotadoll @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365, SkyBet and BlackType (latter non-BOG until 10am) at 5.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.50 Newbury : Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Shade keen tracking leaders, 3rd and one pace from 2 out, blundered last)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

This 3 yr old filly was a decent second off this mark at Chelmsford last time out, that was over slightly longer (1m2f) over at Chelmsford 18 days ago and a similar level of performance now switched to slightly shorter on Tapeta could well be the key to her breaking her maiden tag.

She's actually been running pretty well with two runner-up finishes sandwiching another couple of decent efforts in her last four outings and in what looks a fairly weak (albeit open) contest, she could well finally go one better.

I mention the switch of surface possibly being a help today and this is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2015, offspring of Sea The Stars are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR) for 8.9pts (+21.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, having not run on the surface last time out. Of relevance today and from those 42 runners...

  • those who ran on the A/W LTO are 6/20 (30%) for 21.63pts (+108.2%)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 3.6pts (+18%)
  • females are 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.2pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 18.56pts (+103.1%)
  • after a short 11-20 day break : 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.5pts (+160.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 19.9pts (+180.9%)
  • and those who ran at Chelmsford LTO are 2/8 (25%) for 11.2pts (+139.5%)

*

7lb claimer Oliver Stammers is in the saddle today and in his short 10-month career so far has won 10 of 84 (11.9% SR) races, which is a decent enough start, but of those 84 races, he has done particularly well in A/W handicaps, winning 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+52.5% ROI) profits, including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/25 (20%) for 21.6pts (+86.4%)
  • over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.07pts (+206.7%)
  • and at Class 6 over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 4/14 (28.6%) for 28.3pts (+202.2%)

*

Plus there's a distinct possibility that our pick will go off as favourite today and considering that blindly backing favs is a quick way to the poor house, you might be surprised to discover that backing favs trained by Hughie Morrison is actually a profitable venture.

Blindly backing such runners has turned a profit in 10 of the last 12 years and since the start of 2011 (having made a loss in 2010!), those favs are 142/411 (34.6% SR) for 33.8pts (+8.2% ROI), from which the last five years have seen 89 winners from 253 (35.2%) for 29.3pts (+11.6%) profit including...

  • in handicaps : 61/189 (32.3%) for 26pts (+13.7%)
  • female runners are 36/101 (35.6%) for 13.5pts (+13.4%)
  • female handicappers are 24/72 (33.3%) for 12.14pts (+16.9%)
  • and female handicappers on the A/W are 13 from 33 (39.4%) for 7.27pts (+22%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.50 Newbury : Speedo Boy @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Shade keen tracking leaders, 3rd and one pace from 2 out, blundered last)

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap  for 3yo over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was a decent second off this mark at Chelmsford last time out, that was over slightly longer (1m2f) over at Chelmsford 18 days ago and a similar level of performance now switched to slightly shorter on Tapeta could well be the key to her breaking her maiden tag.

She's actually been running pretty well with two runner-up finishes sandwiching another couple of decent efforts in her last four outings and in what looks a fairly weak (albeit open) contest, she could well finally go one better.

I mention the switch of surface possibly being a help today and this is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2015, offspring of Sea The Stars are 8 from 42 (19.1% SR) for 8.9pts (+21.2% ROI) in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, having not run on the surface last time out. Of relevance today and from those 42 runners...

  • those who ran on the A/W LTO are 6/20 (30%) for 21.63pts (+108.2%)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 3.6pts (+18%)
  • females are 5/19 (26.3%) for 22.2pts (+116.8%)
  • over trips of 1m to 1m2f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 18.56pts (+103.1%)
  • after a short 11-20 day break : 4/14 (28.6%) for 22.5pts (+160.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/11 (27.3%) for 19.9pts (+180.9%)
  • and those who ran at Chelmsford LTO are 2/8 (25%) for 11.2pts (+139.5%)

*

7lb claimer Oliver Stammers is in the saddle today and in his short 10-month career so far has won 10 of 84 (11.9% SR) races, which is a decent enough start, but of those 84 races, he has done particularly well in A/W handicaps, winning 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) for 18.4pts (+52.5% ROI) profits, including...

  • at Class 6 : 5/25 (20%) for 21.6pts (+86.4%)
  • over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 5/16 (31.25%) for 33.07pts (+206.7%)
  • and at Class 6 over trips of 1m1.5f and beyond : 4/14 (28.6%) for 28.3pts (+202.2%)

*

Plus there's a distinct possibility that our pick will go off as favourite today and considering that blindly backing favs is a quick way to the poor house, you might be surprised to discover that backing favs trained by Hughie Morrison is actually a profitable venture.

Blindly backing such runners has turned a profit in 10 of the last 12 years and since the start of 2011 (having made a loss in 2010!), those favs are 142/411 (34.6% SR) for 33.8pts (+8.2% ROI), from which the last five years have seen 89 winners from 253 (35.2%) for 29.3pts (+11.6%) profit including...

  • in handicaps : 61/189 (32.3%) for 26pts (+13.7%)
  • female runners are 36/101 (35.6%) for 13.5pts (+13.4%)
  • female handicappers are 24/72 (33.3%) for 12.14pts (+16.9%)
  • and female handicappers on the A/W are 13 from 33 (39.4%) for 7.27pts (+22%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Boscastle @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!