Tag Archive for: horse racing tips

Stat of the Day, 15th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

1.15 Newbury : Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Awkwardly and lost ground start, held up in last pair, headway on far rail over 2f out, ridden and hung left 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

In my haste this morning to get out to my aunt's funeral, I inadvertently quoted Mark Johnston's Goodwood stats! So, much later than planned/usual (approaching 12.30pm!), here are the correct details for today...

Mark Johnston + Pontefract + Classes 2-5 + 1m2f and beyond + 9/1 max SP + 2016-20 = 16 from 55 (29.1% SR) for 10.03pts (+18.2% ROI), from which...

  • 10/27 (37%) for 10.23pts (+37.9%) were placed LTO
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 7.09pts (+39.4%) with those with a run in the previous 10 days
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 3.13pts (+22.4%) in 3yo contests
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.05pts (+77.3%) with females
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 2.18pts (+19.8%) in June
  • and 4/10 (40%) for 16.84pts (+168.4%) with Joe Fanning in the saddle

Plus from the unique Geegeez racecard pace/draw heatmap...

...which is why I placed...a 1pt win bet on My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.30 Newcastle : Astrozone @ 9/1 BOG WON at 9/2 (Made all, ridden and hung left entering final furlong, stayed on to win by a length and a quarter)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Last week, Matt did a series of videos around the racecards and the report suite and today, I'm going to use that data to suggest a runner that should give us a run for our money, so let's just open the whole card first...

As you can see, that aside from jockey PJ McDonald's C5 icon, the only positive form for trainers and jockey comes for our runner.

The blue zeroes say that none of the field appear in any of my saved query tool angles, but two horses (ours and A Place to Dream) have a Red Report Angles number and with our pick featuring 7 times on my report angles, that's my way in for today, as opening that box up shows the following...

So, we see that the horse is 3 from 7 at this track : she's actually 2 from 4 over course and distance. We'll ignore trainer 30-day form, as we've only a week of results to rely upon, but it's clear that Richard Hughes had a decent week last week and he does well with horses coming back from a break.

Jockey Finley Marsh rides the course well and has a good record here when riding for Mr Hughes. Other than the horses for courses angles which doesn't carry the relevant figures, the A/E is over 1.4 for all my angles and the IV is 2.1 and above, these are excellent stats.

As for the race itself, this type of contest lends itself to horses drawn low that "like to get out" and the two horses that look most likely to lead are ours in stall 1 and a runner in stall 4. This is best illustrated by the Geegeez pace/draw heat map for the contest as follows...

So, all of the above considered, I think we're in a pretty strong position today. What I haven't touched upon is that although our mare was only fourth last time out, that was a Class 4 contest and she drops two classes to run here today She was bumped at the start of the contest and lost ground and as it was her fifth effort in less than seven weeks, it might also have been one race too many at the time and this graphic might also be of interest here...

More pictures than words today, but still plenty of numbers to consider...

...as I recommend...a 1pt win bet on Kath's Lustre @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by BetVictor and Hills at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2020

Tuesday March 24th's pick was...

5.00 Clonmel : Frontal Assault @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, pushed along briefly 7f out, improved to dispute lead 3f out, ridden entering straight, headed 2f out, dropped to moderate 5th 1f out, no impression) Thankfully, I don't need to rely on Irish racing any longer : definitely a failed experiment.

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Standard to Slow Tapeta worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 4 yr old gelding whose modest career record to date of just 2 wins and 7 places from 24 starts might not make him an obvious candidate, but I'm happy to discard his failure to win any of his 13 attempts on turf to focus on an All-Weather record at 2 wins and 3 places from 11 starts that is further inmproved to 2 wins, 3 further places from 8 here at Newcastle.

A 62.5% overall place strike rate including a 25% win record on one track is certainly of more appeal and all 8 runs were in handicaps for trainer Jim Goldie and they also include of relevance today...

  • 2 wins and 2 further places from 6 over course and distance
  • 2 wins and another place from 5 when sent off as favourite, as seems likely today
  • 2 wins from 3 starts in 12-runner contests
  • and one win from two when ridden by today's jockey, Daniel Tudhope...

...who himself had a brilliant time of it here last year winning 19 of 78 (24.4% SR) races, generating level stakes profits of 23.9pts at Betfair SP, the equivalent of a 30.7% return on stakes invested, from which he was...

  • 13 from 56 (23.2%) for 20.2pts (+36%) in handicaps
  • 3 from 10 (30%) for 2.22pts (+22.2%) over this 5f course and distance
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 23.3pts (+388.6%) for trainer Jim Goldie.

That performance for today's trainer was no short term flash in the pan either as today the Goldie/Tudhope combo has 7 winners from 16 her at Newcastle since the start of 2017 with the resultant 43.75% strike rate generating 28.5pts profit at an ROI of 177.9% and this includes..

  • 6/15 (40%) for 16.1pts (+107.1%) in handicaps
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 4.2pts (+70%) over this 5f course and distance (all in handicaps)...

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Be Proud @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day : An Overview

After taking some time to sort out the mess my travel agency business is currently in, I thought it would be a good time to start making some meaningful contributions to the site again, writes Chris Worrall.

I propose a series of articles looking at which trainers fare best in certain months, which fare best at certain tracks and a whole host of stat-based pieces. If there are any particular angles you'd like me to explore on your behalf, please ask.

I'm regularly looking for new angles as a way in to finding a bet and largely because I need to find selections each day for my Stat Picks service and, more importantly for Geegeez readers, a daily selection for Stat of the Day.

What is Stat of the Day?

Well, in mid-November 2011 (have I really been here nearly nine years?!), Matt said to me "I've had an idea for a daily piece we can do between us", and a pillar of geegeez was conceived. The basic premise around the service was - and still is - to highlight one horse each day that statistics suggest has a decent chance at a decent price that also offered some value.

It was never really intended as a tipping service and, although we now keep basic data re: strike rates, profit/loss & ROI, it still isn't a tipping service as such. Well, I don't think it is anyway. My aim is to fulfil the original brief: one horse per day with a chance at a reasonable price but, more than that, to highlight one or more statistical angles you can use to help in your own betting. The picks are not incidental, nor even are they secondary, but there is much more to Stat of the Day than the name of a horse and a price.

In recent years, I've been the main contributor to the service, as Matt's time has been needed elsewhere on the site, but it remains a team effort. [It's 99% Chris, 1% me! - Ed.]

How do I land on the daily selections?

Well, it's probably not the most time-efficient method, if I'm honest, but I'm a little set in my ways. So here goes.

Stage 1: Longlisting

Like many of you, I have a stack of stored angles created via Geegeez' excellent Query Tool (and I'll be sharing some of these with you in due course). I also have a large number of saved angles on the also-excellent Horseracebase site and each evening I'm able to access a list of horses that are set to run the following day.

In addition to those two lists, I look at the Geegeez report suite for the daily Shortlist and also My Report Angles, where I have my own preferred parameters set up. So, after consulting these four places, I'm presented with a large number of runners and that's stage 1 complete.

Stage 2: Eliminations

Stage 2 involves putting all the races where I've got possibles into track/time order and it's at this point that I first look at the Geegeez racecards page, which I then use to cross off any races I wouldn't want to get involved in for SotD purposes. It's not an exhaustive list and I do sometimes make exceptions, but generally I get rid of maiden races (but often keep maiden handicaps), flat /AW novice non-handicaps, median auction races, bumpers (NH Flat), Irish racing, and races with 14 or more runners.

Stage 3: Further Analysis

I'm now left with a number of races to assess with one or more possibles and it's only at this point that I actually look at the racecards themselves. I then use a mixture of Instant Expert, Pace/Draw, Head to Head, Full Form and that unquantifiable gut feeling to establish I believe have a decent chance of winning and I then eliminate those that don't.

Stage 4: Value Judgement

This can then leave me with anything from one to ten runners on a shortlist, which I then put in the order I feel are most likely to win. Once I've got that pecking order in place I will, for the first time, look at the prices available. I'll have an idea in my head of what kind of price I'd want for each runner and so I start at number one and check if (a) it's available at 5/2 or longer (my own general minimum cut-off for SotD) and (b) if it's priced close to or higher than what I'd wanted it to be.

I'm aware that the last part is arbitrary, but I've developed a "feeling" for what suits and what doesn't over the years. So, if number one fits both criteria, that's the Stat of the Day pick. If it doesn't fit both criteria, then I move to number two and so on.

Do they win and are they worth following?

Anybody who publicly publishes selections at odds of 5/2 or longer will pick many more losers than winners and I'm no exception. But, from the first pick in mid-November 2011 to the end of February 2020, after removing any non-runners from the data we had 2,515 SotD runners grace the track, of which 664 were winners.

That's a strike rate of 26.4% with advised profits of 526.45 points, equating to a 20.9% profit on all stakes. In money terms, almost £1.21 back for every £1 wagered.

As for being worth following, then for most people it's a "yes". We don't blow our trumpet about strike rates and profits etc, nor do we get all melancholy when they don't win. The real value of SotD is still as it was when it started back in 2011: highlighting profitable angles for future reference/usage and hopefully a dollop of jam on today's bread.

The angle used for the next pick (sooner rather than later, hopefully, once this lockdown is confined to history) might not generate a winner for us on that day, but it will produce more winners in the future and if we can steer you towards future winners, then we're not too concerned about highlighting a losing bet on the day.

SotD is most certainly a long-term project and, as with all "tipping" services (I know we say it's not tipping, but it has become widely perceived as one), it has to endure peaks and troughs along the way. We've had, and will have again, long losing runs; and we've had, and will have again,  ridiculous purple patches. The overall picture remains a healthy one and I can't wait to get going again!

What kind of angles do I use?

Well, some are very simple horses for courses type approaches, or trainer/track combinations, whilst others can be more complex; and I'll be bringing you some examples over the coming days/weeks until racing resumes. So, if there's anything you'd like to look at, please let me know in the comments below.

Thanks for reading and for following Stat of the Day if that's you.

Chris

Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Thurles : Sizing Pottsie @ 9/4 BOG fell at 9/4 (Led, mistake 7th and slight mistake next, pushed along and joined when fell 2 out) Aside from the fall, the jumping wasn't really up to scratch for this level.

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Naas :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hong Kong @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on heavy ground worth £26,549 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old colt has already won in the mud here at Naas when scoring by two lengths over 6f last October and his breeding suggests he'll be better in time than his current mark of 88 would intimate.

He is trained by household name, AP O'Brien, who has won this race twice in the last seven runnings and is also 55 from 170 (32.4% SR) for 36.5pts (+21.5% ROI) here at Naas on the Flat with horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter over the last three seasons, including...

  • 37/111 (33.3%) for 38.8pts (+35%) over 6f to 1m
  • 24/78 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+32.7%) with 3 yr olds
  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 17pts (+25%) in big (ie 12+) fields
  • and 7/19 (36.8%) for 12.6pts (+66.2%) on Soft to Heavy/Heavy ground

...whilst for a broad AP/Naas micro, try 2 & 3 yr olds @ 6f-1m in fields of 7-16 runners = 28/75 (37.3% SR) for 47.1pts (+62.8% ROI).

And that's possibly/probably enough to justify the selection today, but as Hong Kong is now returning from Group 3 action at Newmarket to make a handicap debut here, it's also worth looking at AP's runners making a handicap debut on the Flat and if we do that we see 38 winners from 164 (23.2% SR) for 105.4pts (+64.3% ROI) over the last six seasons, including of note/relevance today...

  • 34/122 (27.9%) for 102.2pts (+83.8%) at odds of Evens to 10/1
  • 28/116 (24.1%) for 85.7pts (+73.9%) with male runners
  • 26/110 (23.6%) for 95.7pts (+87%) with 3 yr olds
  • 19/65 (29.2%) for 91.4pts (+140.6%) over the last two seasons
  • 17/62 (27.4%) for 83.3pts (+134.4%) in races worth £13-75k
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 37.8pts (+145.4%) at 7f
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 28.3pts (+122.9%) here at Naas
  • and 5/25 (20%) for 32.3pts (+129.2%) under today's jockey, Seamie Heffernan

...and an AP/hcp debut micro? 3yo males at Evs to 10/1 over last two seasons = 8/23 (34.8% SR) for 28.3pts (+123.1% ROI)...

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Hong Kong @ 10/3 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.05am Monday whilst Coral were a fraction longer, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Naas

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.00 Fontwell : Jimmy @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/4 (Chased leaders on inside, switched outside before 4th, reminders and not travel well after next, reluctant and dropped out quickly after 9th, soon pulled up)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Calle Malva @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Mares Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on heavy ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old mare has won one of her four starts to date, another Class 4 hurdle on heavy ground at relatively nearby Hexham, so conditions won't be too unfamiliar today. That win is the only win recorded by any of the runners in this contest, as her six rivals have only mustered a combined 4 places from 21 runs to date.

Regular jockey Blair Campbell  is the saddle again today, once more hoping to use his 3lb claim effectively enough to land another Kelso winner for trainer Lucinda Russell, who is 30 from 117 (25.6% SR) for 60.5pts (+51.7% ROI) with horses sent off in the Evens to 8/1 price bracket in handicaps at this venue since the start of 2015. These include of relevance today...

  • 28/103 (27.2%) for 67.1pts (+65.1%) at Classes 3 & 4
  • 18/74 (24.3%) for 46.7pts (+63.2%) with horses unplaced last time out
  • 18/74 (24.3%) for 33.6pts (+45.3%) at Class 4
  • 18/56 (32.1%) for 54.7pts (+97.6%) in fields of 6-8 runners
  • 14/43 (32.6%) for 29.9pts (+69.5%) during March to May
  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 46.1pts (+102.4%) with a jockey claiming 3-6lbs
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 41.3pts (+114.6%) over hurdles
  • 9/31 (29%) for 9.6pts (+31%) on heavy ground
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 19.9pts (+110.8%) in March
  • 7/20 (35%) for 17.7pts (+88.5%) with Blair Campbell in the saddle
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 31pts (+193.9%) with female runners...

...whilst risking diluting the data too far...those unplaced LTO and now running at Class 3/4 in fields of 4-7 in March are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 15.66pts (+174% ROI) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Calle Malva @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Monday with plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2020

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Southwell : Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 (Made all, clear from 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly and won unchallenged by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on heavy ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at today's class and trip under today's jockey on soft ground at relatively nearby Catterick 31 days ago and despite going up in weight, he still runs off a winnable mark today.

He now has 6 wins and 6 further places from 23 efforts over fences and today's conditions look ideal for him as those 23 races have yielded...

  • 6 wins, 5 places from 17 at odds of Evens to 5/1
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 20 at Class 4
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 19 in cheekpieces
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 after less than 5 weeks rest
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 off a mark (OR) of 100-110
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 11 at trips of 2m½f to 2m4f
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 6 on heavy ground

...and Casual Cavalier is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 12.12pts (+202% ROI) when sent off at Evs to 5/1 wearing cheekpieces in a Class 4 chase over a trip of 2m½f to 2m4f off a mark of 100-110 after less than five weeks rest, including 2 from 2 for 4.81pts on heavy ground.

His trainer Tristan Davidson has had an excellent last couple of years and has been profitably follow blindly across all three (Flat, A/W & NH) disciplines, a feat rarely achieved, but we're obviously just going to look at his record in this code today, because...

...his NH runners are 22 from 72 (30.6% SR) for 52.33pts (+72.7% ROI) over those last two years and here are just 10 of the ways he got those winners under conditions faced today...

  1.  21/61 (34.4%) for 59.8pts (+98%) in races worth less than £8,000
  2.  20/62 (32.3%) for 49.9pts (+80.5%) from male runners
  3.  20/52 (38.5%) for 64.4pts (+123.8%) within 65 days of their last run
  4.  18/60 (30%) for 50.9pts (+84.9%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
  5.  18/41 (43.9%) for 30.8pts (+75.1%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  6.  16/54 (29.6%) for 31.7pts (+58.7%) in handicaps
  7.  12/32 (37.5%) for 51.1pts (+159.8%) over trips of 2m½f to 2m6f
  8.  12/32 (37.5%) for 32.6pts (+101.9%) at Class 4
  9.  6/11 (54.6%) for 25.6pts (+232.4%) during March to April
  10.  and 5/14 (35.7%) for 8pts (+57.1%) over fences...

...whilst males sent off at Evens to 5/1 under Harry Reed for less than £8k within 65 days of their last run are 12 from 19 (63.2% SR) for 34.4pts (+181.1% ROI), including...

  • 10 from 16 in handicaps
  • 8 from 12 at Class 4
  • 6 from 8 over 2m½f to 2m6f
  • 5 from 5 in March/April
  • and 3 from 7 over fences...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Monday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day: The 2016 Review

Saturday saw us reach the end of the fifth full calendar year for Stat of the Day, which was Geegeez' first real venture into daily tipping.

We know that we acquired lots of new subscribers over the year thanks to previous years' successes, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat ( or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

We aim to have the selection online by the time most people rise for breakfast, where possible and it's usually done well before midnight the night before the meeting.

We try to find runners priced around the 3/1 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we have managed to make a profit yet again this year.

Without blowing the collective trumpets of myself, Matt and now Steve, we're very proud of the figures accrued to date and we can safely say there aren't many (if any!) better services around. In fact, most paid-for services would kill for our figures.

Where possible, I'd like SotD to cover your subscriptions to Gold, making the rest of the site free to use as you see fit and in 2016, a level stake of £5.38 was all that was needed to cover a £249 per year annual subscription.

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2016 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 294 (quite a few non-runners this year)
Winning Bets: 70
Strike Rate: 23.81%

Yearly Profit: 46.24pts
Profit on Stakes Invested: 15.73%

These are quite impressive figures considering we give a selection every day rain or shine, if we say so ourselves and we'll be doing our level best to maintain our success in 2017.

Thanks for sticking with us/SotD,
Chris, Matt, Steve and the whole Geegeez team.

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1/30-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day: The 2015 Review

Last Friday saw us reach the end of the fourth full calendar year for Stat of the Day, which was Geegeez' first real venture into daily tipping.

We know that we acquired lots of new subscribers over the year thanks to previous years' successes, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat ( or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

We aim to have the selection online by the time most people rise for breakfast, where possible and it's usually done well before midnight the night before the meeting.

We try to find runners priced around the 3/1 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we have managed to make a profit yet again this year.

Without blowing the collective trumpets of both myself and Matt, we're very proud of the figures accrued to date and we can safely say there aren't many (if any!) better services around. In fact, most paid-for services would kill for our figures.

Where possible, I'd like SotD to cover your monthly subscriptions to Gold, making the rest of the site free to use as you see fit and in 2015, a level stake of £3.32 was all that was needed to cover a £24 per month worst case scenario.

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2015 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 287 (a large number of non-runners this year)
Winning Bets: 81
Strike Rate: 28.22%

Yearly Profit: 86.8pts
Profit on Stakes Invested: 30.2%

This is no flash in the pan freak year, as the abovce figures take the last two years results to 165/592 (27.87% SR) for 175.18pts profit at an ROI of 29.59%, showing remarkable consistency over a sustained perod of time.

These are quite phenomenal figures, if we say so ourselves and we'll be doing our level best to maintain our success in 2016.

Thanks for sticking with us/SotD,
Chris & Matt

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your free trial now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day: The 2014 Review

SotD: Review of 2013

SotD: Review of 2014

Today, New Year's Eve 2014, sees the end of the third full calendar year for Stat of the Day, which was Geegeez' first real venture into daily tipping.

We know we've acquired lots of new subscribers of late, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat ( or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

We aim to have the selection online by the time most people rise for breakfast, where possible and it's usually done before midnight the night before the meeting.

We try to find runners priced around the 3/1 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we have managed to make a profit yet again this year.

Without blowing the collective trumpets of both myself and Matt, we're very proud of the figures accrued to date and we can safely say there aren't many (if any!) better services around. In fact, most paid-for services would kill for our figures.

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2014 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 305
Winning Bets: 84
Strike Rate: 27.54%

Yearly Profit: 88.38pts
Profit on Stakes Invested: 28.98%

These are quite phenomenal figures, if we say so ourselves and we'll be doing our level best to maintain our success in 2015.

Thanks for sticking with us/SotD,
Chris & Matt

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your free trial now?

Click here for more details.