Thursday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Chelmsford, Ludlow, Newbury, Newcastle & Southwell

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A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

The biggest pot is offered at Newbury, but the fields are very small, so let's head to Newcastle where the Tapeta is said to be standard for our six races that kick off with...

Race 1 @ 2.10, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m2f...

11yo veteran Visitant was a runner-up at Redcar ten days ago and whilst beaten by 6.5 lengths that day, he's the only runner in this race to have made the frame last time out and it was his third silver medal in his last five starts, including one here over course and distance on this track he generally does well at.

Violeta and Stand Free both won here over course and distance on their penultimate runs, but were fifth and eighth respectively last time out. Keen Interest is a regular placer, having been in the first three home in six of his last seven and whilst Eva Rosie is a 13-race (10 on A/W) maiden, she made the frame in her first five runs this year, but was disappointing at Wolverhampton last month.

These five would be my shortlist in what looks a pretty weak affair, but the trio I prefer are (1) Violeta, (4) Visitant & (6) Keen Interest

Race 2 @ 2.45, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...

Jkr Cobbler has been second and then first over course and distance in his last two outings and hosed home by more than four lengths last time out. Drakeholes and Tickets were the first two home here over track & trip 2 days ago with the former prevailing by a neck but he's now up 5lbs and Tickets has a 3lb claimer on board. Tickets was also a course and distance winner two starts ago and although both Commander Crouch and Rajawail were placed third on their last runs, it's Jkr Cobbler, Tickets & Drakeholes bringing the best form to the table, although Commander Crouch's 2-year numbers are decent enough...

Drakeholes, Concert Boy & Tickets seem to have the best of the draw in boxes 6 to 8...

...whilst tucking in behind the leader should also help Tickets today...

(1) Jkr Cobbler comes here off the best recent effort, (4) Tickets ticks plenty of boxes above and is fairly closely matched to/with (6) Drakeholes, so I'll take these three.

NOTE Tickets was withdrawn whilst I was writing the column, so I'm replacing that pick with (5) Commander Crouch

Race 3 @ 3.20, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice over 1m...

Half of this field have yet to race, but top weight One Eye Jack won at Haydock by a head on debut almost six weeks. Fort George and San Munoz both finished fourth on debut just over three weeks ago and White Crown Star improved upon his 7th of 13 opener to finish third of ten at Yarmouth seven weeks ago.

Of the debutants, Yaa Min is the most interesting, he's a Frankel colt out of Wonderful Filly and cost 370,000 Guineas as a foal. He's also a half-brother to several winners including German winner Wonderful Moon.

Yaa Min certainly has the breeding to go well here, but I'm sticking with those with previous experience of that half dozen with a prior run, I'm taking (1) One Eye Jack, (3) Fort George & (11) White Crown Star

Race 4 @ 3.55, a 6-runner, Class 4, 2yo nursery over 1m...

Chesneys Charm has won three of his last six including a 7f nursery five weeks ago and drops in class today, Sands of Indi steps up in class and has yet to win after three starts but was a runner-up in each of her first two, including going down by a neck here over 7f two months ago, whilst Pivotal Days got off the mark at the fifth time of asking, landing a 7f nursery on heavy ground at Haydock three weeks ago, but he also steps up in class here.

Space Raider makes both a handicap and an A/W debut after making the frame just once in four outings, but Shielas Well comes here on a hat-trick after 1m wins last month here at Newcastle and then at Musselburgh and her nursery record reads 22511. She's the sole course and distance winner here, but is up two classes. Bottom weight Anthropologist looks the most vulnerable here, having yet to make the frame in seven starts.

(1) Chesneys Charm has the pick of the limited A/W form available...

...and with a low draw and a fondness to just get on with things, he's my first pick here along with his in-form stablemate (5) Shielas Well, who although up in the ratings again, does get weight from most of her rivals and she might still be better than a mark of 67

Race 5 @ 4.30, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

A competitive looking contest here where top weight Muker has two silvers from his last three starts and drops down a class here. Looking For Lynda has been third in two of his last four, whilst Curious Rover won his penultimate race and both he and Looking for Lynda are down two classes.

Course and distance winner Jenever is also down a level here, but was only 11th of 14 here last time out, but True Promise was a runner-up here over 6f beaten by just three quarters of a length five weeks ago, before winning over 6f at Southwell next/last time out looking to have plenty in hand. Bottom weight Ecclesiastical also drops back in class after toiling in the Nottingham mud last time out, but he did win over 5f at Wolverhampton two starts ago.

A straight 5f generally lends itself to early/consistent speed and the field's recent pace scores...

...make life tough for Jenever and Muker. True Promise's hopes are backed up by a stack of stats...

and he's the standout on relevant wins...

...so (5) True Promise is my main hope here and I'll supplement the pick with front-runner (2) Looking For Lynda who runs off his last winning mark on what will be just his second A/W run.

Race 6 @ 5.05, a 10-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

A favourable high draw puts a tick alongside the names of Strong Johnson, Azucena, Castan and Gustav Graves, whilst a straight 5f needs early pace, which is another positive for Strong Johnson as well as Delagate The Lord and Bibendum...

Strong Johnson. however, hasn't won since scoring over course and distance exactly a year ago off 12lbs higher, but has shown signs of coming back to form, making the frame in four of his last six. Delagate The Lord has placed in each of his last two and Castan was third last time out.

Darlo Pride and Bibendum both come here after solid runner-up efforts and the former has a 2 in 3 place strike rate from 21 A/W starts. Bottom weight Azucena was a winner on her penultimate outing and she has already won over today's course and distance, as have Strong Johnson (of course), Castan, Gustav Graves and Let's Go Hugo.

Despite his lack of recent wins, I still think (1) Strong Johnson has a great chance of making the frame here. (8) Darlo Pride did so last time out and does so more often than not, whilst (5) Castan has been mentioned a few times above and might be better than his current odds would suggest.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (1) Violeta, (4) Visitant & (6) Keen Interest

Leg 2: (1) Jkr Cobbler, (4) Tickets (5) Commander Crouch & (6) Drakeholes

Leg 3: (1) One Eye Jack, (3) Fort George & (11) White Crown Star

Leg 4: (1) Chesneys Charm & (5) Shielas Well

Leg 5: (2) Looking For Lynda & (5) True Promise

Leg 6: (1) Strong Johnson, (5) Castan & (8) Darlo Pride

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck, as always!i
Chris

Tuesday's UK placepots can be played via Tix at Exeter, Newcastle & Yarmouth.

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

...with the biggest guaranteed pot offered at Newcastle, where the tapeta is said to be standard for a meeting that kicks off with...

Leg 1 @ 4.15, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m4½f...

None of these come here in great form, but King Lear was a runner-up two starts ago, La Pulga was a winner on his penultimate outing and bottom weight Dramatic Star won three starts back and should find this easier than the two big-money handicaps he has tackled on his last two runs. He also gets a 6lb weight allowance as the sole 3yo in the contest and has been gelded since his last run.

If we looked solely at A/W form over the last couple of years, La Pulga ticks this box too, as do Chichester and Capital Theory, although most of the field lack relevant A/W experience...

...and with a distinct possibility that he might well try to nick the race from the front if afforded a soft lead...

..then (7) La Pulga must be in with a shout of making the frame. (3) King Lear is the one most likely to give chase and he was only beaten by less than a length on his A/W (and Tapeta) debut two starts ago. The fourth placed horse from that race has since won at Dundalk, so we'll take him along with bottom weight (9) Dramatic Star, who won well at Hamilton in June before finding the two big-money handicaps a bit too warm for him.

Leg 2 @ 4.50, a 9-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ novice stakes over 1m2f...

Marama sets the standard here having been a runner-up on debut at Haydock at the end of September 2023 and she was a seven length winner in a similar race to this at Chester a month ago upon her return from a 322-day absence. Yeah, she carries a penalty for that win, but she should come on for having the run, she drops in class here and she did win so convincingly LTO that I have to put top-weight Marama straight on my ticket builder.

King of Lightning ran really well on debut over a mile here in February, going down by just a head as a runner-up of eight, but was only fourth of fifth here over the same trip beaten by 12 lengths next/last time out 18 days ago. He had admittedly been off the track for eight months, so should also come on for the run.

Warm Response was third of ten on debut at Southwell ealier this month and whilst he went pretty well, he wasn't that close to actually landing a blow, going down by 10.5 lengths, meaning that Sword's 4.5 length defeat LTO is probably a better effort, althouh Warm Response does drop in class here.

Things haven't quite clicked in terms of wins for Sword, who has yet to get of the mark in his six starts, despite being sent off at 2/1 or shorter in each of his last four. That said, he has made the frame in three of his last five, so whilst he might not be good enough to win races just yet, there is a level of consistency.

I nailed my colours to the (1) Marama mast early doors and I'll also go with consistent nearly-horse (6) Sword with a slight preference for class-dropper (7) Warm Response as my final pick, but I suspect it could by any of five or six for that third spot.

Leg 3 @ 5.25, a 12-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...

I suspect this might well boil down to the four runners who've already shown some ability and an aptitude for racing. Everyoneknowsadave won LTO, landing a 7f maiden at Wolverhampton by the thick end of two lengths to get off the mark at the third attempt. Sapphire Valley won comfortably on debut by 2.5 lengths, also in a Wolverhampton 7f maiden and didn't run badly at Chelmsford last time out despite fading late on. He went off too soon and lost two places in the closing to finish fourth. The first two home have both won since.

Shamador only went down by a length and three quarters on his debut as runner-up of twelve over today's course and distance but never really got invlved at Chelmsford next/last time out, whilst Velvet Whisper was also a runner-up on debut just twelve days ago, beaten by a length and ahalf over 7f on the tapeta at Southwell. She was slow away, but really got going late on She finshed strongest of all and grabbed second almost on the line. She should come on for the run and if she gets going a little sooner, could go one better.

Based on the above runners, (11) Velvet Whisper and (2) Sapphire Valley make most appeal and although Everyoneknowsadave's run LTO was better than Shamador's, he's now penalised and the latter has expereince of this course/distance, so (7) Shamador is my marginal preference.

Leg 4 @ 5.55, a 14-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

There's no absolute stand-out on form here but Muker was a runner-up two starts ago, whilst Lucky Man's penultimate outing saw him land a 6f handicap at Windsor. Cover Point has a win and a place from his last three with Jenever making the frame in three of his own last four starts including a win over 5f at Sandown and a very good 4th of 22 in the Ayr Silver Cup last time out.

Elegant Erin has won two of her last five outings, Londoner was beaten by three parts of a length over 6f here earlier this month, Alligator Alley has a win and a runner-up finish in his last five and Arecibo was a runner-up two starts ago. Piloto Pardo won three races back, but hasn't been seen for over four months and bottom-weight Cast No Shadow won his penultimate race and has won two of his last five.

So there's quite a few who have shown some fairly recent aptitude and several of these have decent numbers on Instant Expert...

...along with the likes of Badri and Harvanna. Badri looks dangerously weighted here at 5lbs below his last win, but in a wide open race where you could pick four or five for the places and still miss out, I'm going to focus on the ones I mentioned in the preview who also feature on that IE graphic above, so that's Muker, Jenever, Londoner and Arecibo.

On form/recent performance, I'd say that I preferred (8) Jenever and (10) Londoner, whilst of the other two, (12) Arecibo's numbers are better than Muker's above and he's also likely to race further forward than Muker

Leg 5 @ 6.25, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...

Only Sixcor comes here off the back of a win and he looked comfortable getting home by 2.5 lengths at Musselburgh last week. Elsewhere Meccas Duchess, Rockley Point and Cuban Rock all finished third, but none of this field are in top form if truth be told.

Northerner ran well on her A/W debut to finish a two-lengths fourth of ten here over course and distance at the start of the month and finished strongly, so she might improve here. Elzaal hasn't won for some time, but has made the frame in 13 of 18 races over today's course and distance, winning five times. Stallone also has a decent record over 5f here at Newcastle winning three of eleven attempts, whilst 11yr old veteran Rockley Point rarely wins nowadays (26 defeats on the bounce), but does possess a terrific 63% place strike (17 from 27) over course and distance and he's actually the standout on Instant Expert along with the afore-mentioned Elzaal!

There's not much to be gained from the draw over a straight 5f here at Newcastle, although those drawn mid to high do have a slightly better record, but pace is often the key here. Sadly I think we might get a bit of a falsely run race with no real front runner in the pack...

...meaning that Cuban Rock and Sixcor might be the ones to take it on, especially Sixcor who used these tactics to such good effect last time out.

I'm going to take (5) Sixcor on the basis of that win LTO and the fact that he might set the tempo here. (6) Elzaal and (9) Rockley Point caught the eye on Instant Expert, so I'll take a punt on this pair in what looks another open (if poor) race and at 16/1 with bookies paying four places, I might also back the latter as a small E/W gamble.

Leg 6 @ 6.55, an 11-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...

Again no LTO winners, but Million Thanks, Pursuit of Truth, Alpine Sierra, Sir Maxi and Barleybrown all finished in the first three home with Pursuit of Truth's 2nd of 13 at Kempton on handicap debut and Alpine Sierra's defeat by a neck probably the better two runs from that group of placers.

9yo Jewel Maker hasn't been in the best form of late but along with Barleybrown is a former course and distance winner, having made the frame in half of his ten attempts (winning twice), whilst Barleybrown's C&D record is three wins and a place from seven runs.

And it's Barleybrown who leads the way on 2-year relevant form...

...so I'll take (11) Barleybrown here on that evidence along with both (4) Pursuit of Truth and (5) Alpine Sierra on their last runs plus scope for improvement.

*

All of which gives me...

Leg 1: (3) King Lear, (7) La Pulga & (9) Dramatic Star

Leg 2: (1) Marama, (6) Sword & (7) Warm Response

Leg 3: (2) Sapphire Valley, (7) Shamador & (11) Velvet Whisper

Leg 4: (8) Jenever, (10) Londoner & (12) Arecibo

Leg 5: (5) Sixcor, (6) Elzaal & (9) Rockley Point

Leg 6: (4) Pursuit of Truth, (5) Alpine Sierra & (11) Barleybrown

...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...

Good Luck today, guys, this looks very tricky.
Chris

 

A small winner on Saturday and a loser yesterday, and on we go to Tuesday. Chris is 'transitioning' from cold Lancashire to warm, sunny Bali for... checks notes... the next four weeks! Lucky bugger. He'll still be helping out from there, though, so he will be taking Tix Picks forward after this one from me...

 

 

What is Tix and how can I put it to work for me?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers on smart play can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

 

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows, including a jackpot rollover expected to surpass £50,000. A winning penny line could pay £500+, and I'll be having a tilt (though not until much closer to the off).

 

 

Tix Picks meeting / pool: Newcastle, placepot

As mentioned I'll be having a crack at the jackpot later, but I want to see as many of the market 'vibes' as I can before entering that pool. Meanwhile, you'll get a feel for my thinking via a placepot play on the same Newcastle card.

Leg 1:  Grant Tuer is in bamboozling form just now and Caledonian Dream went on to my tracker in July. Since then, he's gone from the front twice in handicaps and been a little flat each time. My view is he probably needs a more patient ride, which he might get here; but without knowing that, it's a bit of a guess up. Ollie Stammers is again in the saddle. I'll be slightly frustrated if he is waited with and comes through to win, but I won't be surprised. B.

Interestingly, perhaps, Tuer also saddles the second favourite, Shielas Well, which former champion Silvestre de Sousa rides. She's been running on in each of her most recent three spins, all at a furlong shorter, and with SdS up top is expected to go well. A.

Top weight Himself is the other for early money but, honestly, I cannot see why. A flat enough effort over six here then a nothing performance first time in a handicap last time; and nothing in the trainer's MO to suggest that second time handicap is the time (1 from 31, 3 more placed, 27% PRB in the last two years). Just no fingerprints on this one at all for me.

More interesting is Force Of Honour, who showed a bit when upped from six to seven last time and who can show more now up another furlong. He's been green in a couple of his races and I actually quite like him, albeit he's the sort that could blow out completely. Put it this way: there are plenty here that have shown they're moderate, he has yet to unequivocally confirm as much! B.

Bobby Jones is another who might benefit from the longer trip and also gets B coverage in what is a messy race.

Leg 2: The Fanshawe team has been tearing it up recently and Philanthropist, a neck second at Yarmouth last time, looks A banker material. He's a cheap place lay to insure your bet if you're that way inclined; or you might choose a couple of C alternatives and hope to land A picks in the other five legs.

Leg 3: Seven runners. Yuk. Top of the market is shared between a horse in recent winning form and a handicap debutant from a big yard which has yet to get closer than nine lengths behind a race winner. Titainium is proven at the ten furlong trip and is versatile in terms of run style; up four pounds from a win last time, he might go in again.

But Sarmiento Power's debut effort behind Monkey Island was a strong piece of form and promised much more than his subsequent two performances. Now handicapped, off just 64 (he cost 200,000 guineas as a yearling), and up three furlongs in trip having been gelded since his last race, surely it's time to show what he's really made of.

I thought Solar Bentley had a hard enough race on heavy at Ffos Las 11 days ago and am opposing on that basis; he's up seven pounds for it in any case. Meanwhile, Archie and Hollie have a ridic 32.53% win rate from 83 starters when combining here in the past two years. That demands a second look at Perfectly Timed, who gets blinkers for the first time. That blinkers angle is less arousing, however, though a 50% PRB with such types over two years isn't bad either.

Although not making my placepot tickets, one I've had a tiny win bet on and might lob on C for the jackpot later is Parish Record. Trainer Donald Whillans is top of the PRB pops for three separate and largely unrelated categories, so this trainer switch from Jim Bolger (whose 2024 numbers are *not* good - see second image below) is really interesting.

Whillans' sole other trainer switch in the two year period was a 25/1 shot, which finished 3rd.

For the placepot I'm going with dual A's from the top of the market. Not exciting but they're both highly credible in different ways.

Leg 4: It is not normally the play to go from the front in big field 6f handicaps here, but Asimov may get a relatively soft time of it and, in any case, is from the Fanshawe barn. On the other side of the track, if Juicy is given a more patient ride, she might be in the mix; she's won or been close up in all four AW runs. Both on A.

Quintus Arrius has had 15 races and won two of them. On all-weather, he's had one race and he won it. Here. Over this trip. He led that day and is extremely well in on old form. Interesting. B.

There are three multiple 'Fast Finishers' in this field: Dark Kestrel, Bellagio Man and Faro De San Juan. The first named pair are both trained by Antony Brittain and could be fun plays at big prices but I'll let them beat me. Faro is another Dylan Cunha raider but his best form is at five furlongs so, even though David Egan is booked, I'll also reluctantly defer on him.

But one I can't completely overlook is Rough Diamond. Four of his five wins have been at 6f in big fields and he drops back to this trip from seven for his new trainer, Tristan Davidson. He's well weighted on old form and ran a good race last time before flattening out in the last furlong. A stiff six could be perfect. B.

Leg 5: This looks tricky. Barefoot Warrior won nicely at Thirsk last time but I'm not sure how strong the race was and he shoulders a seven pound penalty now: he's going on B. Stanage has had four goes for the Gosdens and is yet to win, though he has placed in £20k+ to the winner novice races the last twice. He's been gelded since last time and John & Thady are 11/33 after making the unkindest cut of all. I'll risk him as a sole A.

Also on B, I want the Crisford's Buon Viaggio, who was an eye-catching fourth at Chelmsford the other day. Simon & Ed are 24 from 101 with second time starters, 51 of them in the frame, in the past two years.

I'm lukewarm on a few of the others, notably Classic Encounter (switching from Charlie Appleby to George Boughey) and Lattaash, whose Southwell form is hard to peg and it can't be a positive that he was gelded in spite of winning. Both have shown competitive form so I might well be wrong.

Leg 6:  A full field as I write for the closing leg of the placepot and, actually, it's the first race I looked at in the sequence. That's because it's difficult and, if working through the six races chronologically, I might have found myself 'short stacked' (i.e. needing to go narrow from a bankroll perspective even though I know I want to be spread out from a play perspective). Assuming that made any sense, there's a negligible/debatable draw bias but a reasonable pace bias: in full field handicaps over 7f it's hard to win from the front. Other run styles have shared the honours pretty much and, when there's not a lot of obvious pace on - like this race on paper - I want a prominent/midfield runner rather than a hold up one.

 

The solid one, relatively at least, is Havanarama. Hugo Palmer legs up Callum Rodriguez and the former geegeez-sponsored rider is performing out of his skin this season. He's always been one of the best pace judges in the weighing room and this seven is a stern test of that particular skill. The jockey data for COURSE (Co) on Instant Expert, this image taken from the portrait mobile view (which shows the colour codes and the number of runs on which the colouring is based), reveals as much:

 

Indeed, of Callum's last 15 rides at Newcastle, he's been in the frame in 12 of them. If that hasn't given him the kiss of death, nothing will! Havanarama himself has been second on both Newcastle runs, smaller fields each time, and it might be that this bigger group allows him to finish to even greater effect. A.

Dylan Cunha sends Jackson Street all the way up from Newmarket and has booked Silvestre de Sousa to steer. This lad's AW form is a lot better than his turf efforts and he was doing all his best work late around Chelmsford when last seen. He can go close. A.

This is a tougher assignment for Flavour Maker than when dead heating at Kempton last time, but the straight track should also play to the finishing ability he displayed there. Still, I'm not quite so keen on him than the aforementioned pair. B.

Eminent Jewel is another who finishes off well, but her good recent form has been on turf. She might be able to translate it but I'm preferring to add the late runner Petra Celera to B. Although she might end up being too far back if they go steady in front, she's got some great fast finishes when the early tempo is rapid, as her Full Form (show sectionals, note the orange - fastest finisher in the race - "go faster stripes") attests.

 

*

No C tickets today, but a fair bit of B coverage. This is more of a, excuse me, sh*t or bust perm than I've shared recently but will hopefully be good fun at least.

It's £18.88 to 4p units, so £4.72 for pennies.

 

 

 

Good luck!

Matt

p.s. Chris will return for tomorrow's Tix Picks and will assume residency thereafter. I've enjoyed sharing a few thoughts on how I play as well as what I'm playing, and if you have any questions do drop them in the comments.

 

Play on Tix yourself here >>