Tag Archive for: pace

Racing Insights, Monday 10/07/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.05 Ayr
  • 5.15 Ayr
  • 6.15 Ripon
  • 7.43 Roscommon

...the best of which looks like being the 4.05 Ayr, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5f on good to soft ground...

None of these won last time out, but Ravenscraig Castle was a runner-up, Alpine Stroll has been second in each of his last two starts, whilst La Pulga has a win and two places from his last three and Geremia also won three races ago.

Geremia is also the one not moving in class here, as top weight Charging Thunder is down a level and the other four all step up from Class 4. La Pulga and Geremia have both won over a similar trip, whilst both Charging Thunder and Ravenscraig Castle are former course and distance winners with the latter now wearing a visor for the first time.

The entire field have raced in the last 12 to 23 days, so they should all be fresh enough to be competitive here for a race where three of them have already won on good to soft ground, according to Instant Expert, which also informs us that only one of them has scored at Class 3 before...

Charging Thunder runs on good to soft for the first time and although his stats look good above, most of that form is on good to firm ground and his recent runs have been hit and miss, finishing 2nd, 10th, 2nd and 13th, all at Class 2 after back to back Class 3 wins (inc 1 x CD) last July. The field's record at this grade isn't good at all aside from Charging Thunder, of course and both Ravenscraig Castle & Alpine Stroll have struggled to win on this softer ground, although they have both made the frame a couple of times...

The other concern about Ravenscraig Castle is the fact that he's 0 from 13 over the last two years and is still 10lbs higher than his last win. He will, of course, run from pretty much the centre of the stalls from box four, but the draw really shouldn't be having too much effect over such a lengthy trip and this theory is backed up by our stats, albeit off a small sample size...

and those races above have really favoured hold-up horses...

...which could well be some much needed good news for Ravenscraig Castle...

Summary

Geremia and Ravenscraig Castle both look well suited by the pace profile here, but that's the only real positive that I've found for the latter. La Pulga might go off too quickly and get caught and he's not really a fan of this softer ground. And you can pretty say the same about Alpine Stroll, whilst all of Charging Thunder's form is on quicker surfaces, even if he does drop in class here.

Zimmerman, however, does like the good to soft ground, but back to back wins on this going last autumn took his mark from 74 to 82 and seems to have toiled in the 80's since and is probably still in the grip of the assessor here.

All of which brings me back to Geremia, he has the ideal pace profile for this contest, he was running on well late on in defeat last time out and the extra furlong should suit, making him my tentative selection here at 4/1 with the 3/1 La Pulga probably the biggest danger.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 03/07/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 4.10 Southwell
  • 6.45 Windsor
  • 7.00 Musselburgh
  • 7.15 Windsor

...from which, I'm going to look at the 6.45 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to firm ground...

Sterling Knight was a winner last time out and is three from five, bottom weight Expert Agent is denoted as a fast finisher and has won three of his last four, whilst only Silver Samurai and Dig Two have failed to win any of their last five outings (9 & 8 respectively to be precise).

Five of these (Lethal Nymph, Silver Samurai, LTO winner Sterling Knight, Mister Bluebird & Dig Two) are stepping up a class here whilst Silver Sumarai and Dig Two both sport a tongue-tie for the first time. Bottom weight Expert Agent is the sole 3 yr old in the field and gets a handy 6lbs weight allowance for that.

The entire field have all won at this trip already and four (Tanmawwy, Sterling Knight, Aphelios & Dora Penny) have won over course and distance, whilst Mister Bluebird has scored here over 5f. Aphelios hasn't raced for 75 days, but that shouldn't be an issue and the others have all been out inside the last two weeks to two months.

Instant Expert adds to the above data with details on six previous good to firm winners and three Class 2 victors...

...but this data doesn't have a standout runner, sadly. it does highlight the fact that Silver Samurai has struggled at going/class and that Mister Bluebird might not be suited by the 6f trip. A further look at the place stats suggests that Aphelios is an early contender for a place here...

...whilst Sterling Knight certainly gets both track and trip and Mister Bluebird's record at 6f might not be as bad as I first feared.

As you'd expect on a fast, straight 6f, there's very little (if any) advantage from the draw here...

...which leads us to our free feature, the PACE and those races above have tended to be won by those racing furthest forward...

Prominent runners win approximately 50% more often than those further back, whilst leaders win 50% more often than the prominent runners and go on to make the frame in almost half of their races, which based on this field's recent efforts...

...would seem to be bad news for the likes of Silver Samurai, Dora Penny and Expert Agent. LTO winner Sterling Knight changed tactics to win here over course and distance a fortnight ago, so I'd expect him to be further up that chart for this race, which will probably be led out by Mister Bluebird in the early stages.

Summary

Mister Bluebird is the likely leader here, which gives him a very good chance of at least making the frame, based on the pace stats for this track and trip. He was sharp enough to win here over 5f and his place stats were decent enough on Instant Expert, so he's be a good shout for the frame here. He doesn't, however, win often enough and I feel that if Sterling Knight runs as he did here a fortnight ago, he's the one to beat. He'll be up with the pace and is in good form.

Sterling Knight is currently 4/1, which might be a touch short, whilst Mister Bluebird's 11/2 is definitely too short for me to want to back him E/W and I agree with the early market that the likes of the 4/1 Aphelios is sure to be involved. None of the longer-priced (8/1 and bigger) horses really appeal to me here, either.

Racing Insights, Monday 19/06/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Carlisle
  • 5.00 Lingfield
  • 5.10 Kilbeggan
  • 6.35 Windsor
  • 7.43 Kilbeggan

And as PACE is the free feature, let's tackle a sprint in the 5.00 Lingfield, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 5f on standard polytrack...

Spirit of Breeze and Sabah Al Ward are still maidens after five and four attempts respectively and neither have even made the frame and I don't see that changing here. The rest of the field have all won at least one of their last five outings with Alpine Goal the sole LTO winner.

That was here over course and distance (Diomed Spirit has also won over C&D) less than a fortnight ago and she now steps up one class (as does Cuban Grey) and she is denoted as being a fast finisher. Destiny's Spirit and Cuban Grey are also both former winners over this trip.

Most of the field have raced in the last six weeks, but Diomed Spirit may need the run after a run of poor form last season was halted by a six months absence and he might well need the run and he's probably carrying too weight here.

Elsewhere, Sabah Al Ward runs in a handciap for the just the second time and now wears a hood for the first time as well as a first time in a tongue tie. Spirit of Breeze also makes a debut in a tongue-tie.

I already think that this race is beyond the two maidens and Diomed Spirit's long layoff after some poor runs makes me uncomfortable, so I'm only really interested in these runners on Instant Expert...

...where Cuban Grey looks like one to be swerved! His stats on standard going and over this trip are particularly awful and he's going to sent packing from my analysis, unless he's just been unluvky and has made the frame regularly...

The numbers are admittedly better, but he's still the worst of the four and has to say goodbye, leaving us with runners in stalls 3, 4 & 6, but over the last 100 or so races over this course and distance, there doesn't seem to be any discernible advantage to being in a certain stall...

...although stall 3's stats are the best, but I think not anomalous and unreliable, whereas feature of the day, the PACE angle, is a totally different matter...

...where the data suggests the further forward you race, the better chance of winning/placing, suiting Skallywag Bay best of all, if the field's most recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

The three horses I've left in to the PACE analysis are the three I'd want to be with. Destiny's Spirit looks the outlier here and least likely to win, but at 16/1 with Skybet paying three places must be worth a small E/W punt.

As for the other pair, they're the market leaders and I know the pace says Skallywag Bay should make all and win, I just think that Alpine Girl's C&D win last time out might just edge it for her here. Either way Alpine Girl at 9/4 and Skallywag Bay at 7/2 would be my two for the reverse forecast/exacta.

Racing Insights, Monday 12/06/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 4.30 Lingfield
  • 7.00 Pontefract
  • 7.30 Pontefract
  • 8.10 Windsor
  • 8.40 Windsor

...and on paper, if nothing else, the first of our two Yorkshire races looks the best of the five freebies, so I'm heading about 40 miles East of my house for the 7.00 Pontefract, a 9-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left handed mile and a half on good to firm ground...

The top two in the weights, Matchless and La Pulga both won last time out, as did Carrilgillihy, whilst only Real Terms, Glasses Up and Hezmie are winless in five or more.

None of the field raced at Class 3 LTO, with only top weight Matchless dropping in class. His eight rivals are all up one or two classes here with Carrilgillihy, Cmon Kenny and the out of form Hezmie the ones moving up from Class 5.

Carrilgillihy is the only one to have won at Ponty before and he's 4 from 4 at the tack including 3 over course and distance. Matchless, Zealandia and Real terms have at least won ove rthe trip before now.

The entire field have raced in the last four weeks with La Pulga rested for just four days after a convincing win over 1m5f at Hamilton last week and we've no new headgear/equipment etc to discuss. In fact, Zealandia wears cheekpieces for the third time and he's the only with any headgear in a field that, according to Instant Expert, contains half a dozen good to firm winners and just three former Class 3 victors...

Although there's not a great deal of green there, the only real worry is that 2/20 Class 3 record for Glasses Up. Mind you, he is on a 23-rce losing strak, so he's unlikely to be a player here over a track/trip that doesn't have as big a draw bias as you'd initially think...

Stall 5 has done particularly (but anomalously) well, but  and draw in the first seven stalls would be fine. This, of course, isn't great news for Zealandia & Matchless and it's the lower half of the draw (1-5) that have filled the places most often, but here at Ponty, feature of the day, PACE, often rules the race and from those races above...

...and although hold-up horses have almost won their fair share of races, the front half of the pack is where you'd want to be and based on this field's recent running styles, this is where I'd draw my line on PACE...

And when we combine both pace and draw stats and put them on our heat map, we get...

Summary

From the above data, it's Carrigillihy for me here today. He won last time out and is only up 3lbs, he's 4 from 4 here (inc 3 at C&D) and shows up best on pace/draw. He's currently 7/1 with a few firms and that looks massive and could even be an E/W option, especially with Sky who are paying four places again.

As for the places, they could well go to La Pulga (10/3 fav) and Matchless (13/2), the latter would be shorter if he had a better draw, having won LTO but now dropping in class, he could be dangerous here.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 22/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.40 Carlisle
  • 5.25 Roscommon
  • 5.45 Market Rasen
  • 6.25 Roscommon
  • 8.05 Windsor
  • 8.45 Market Rasen

...the best of which, on paper, are a couple of Class 4 contests ie typical Monday fayre. The Carlisle Class 4 contest only has seven runners and won't provide much scope for E/W punters, whilst the Market Rasen offering is a 5-runner maiden! With that and today's feature in mind, I'll drop down a class and head for the 8.05 Windsor, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over 1m3½f around the figure of eight on good to form ground...

It's a busy-looking racecard so let's quickly assess the information in front of us before moving on. Form-wise, just Hurtle was able to win last time out, but Overactive, City Cyclone and Mirabello Bay did manage to finish third and the latter had won three of his previous four outings, whilst Bulldog Spirit is the only runner in the race with a previous win, having scored at Newcastle on his debut in September of last year.

It's a fairly inexperienced field with just 42 career starts, of which Mirabello Bay is responsible for 14! This general inexperience manifests itself by the lack of wins and in the facts that Rule Of Thumb and Bulldog Spirit both only have one previous handicap run each and that Overactive, City Cyclone, Brave Knight and Kyle of Lochalsh are all on handicap debuts here.

Rule of Thumb drops in class here, whilst Mirabello Bay's LTo win was at Class 6 and he's up in both class and weight, although by just 1lb and he has already won at Class 5, as Instant Expert will testify shortly.

Most of the field have raced in the last two months or so, but it's a seasonal reappearance for Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and Brave Knight after lay-offs of 151, 230 and 251 days respectively, so they'd be excused for needing a run here.

Only Mirabello Bay has raced here at Windsor before, but has failed to make the frame in two starts, but he's also the only one to have run at a similar trip to this one, having won over 1m4f two starts ago.

I think the lack of experience may well have affected the assessor's judgement as the entire field only has a 4lb spread from highest to lowest rated, so so of these might well have been treated leniently or harshly depending upon your viewpoint. This inexperience is also reflected in the relevant stats shown on Instant Expert...

Not much to go on here, admittedly, but our three previous winners have all won at this grade, Hurtle has at least made the frame on good to firm ground and there's not really much to add to that, so let's quickly move on to see who might have the best of the draw over a course and distance that has tended to suit those drawn highest for win purposes, but there seems to be no bias at all when it comes to making the frame...

Those win stats will be better news for the likes of Kyle of Lochalsh, Hurtle and possibly Rule of Thumb than it will over their rivals, but I suspect much will depend on how the field approach the contest, which is where feature of the day, PACE, comes into its own, because we know that those races above have favoured horses racing in a prominent position, just off the leader(s)...

Aside from this advantage for prominent runners, there's not much to split the other three running styles from either a win or a place perspective. We can also use our pace stats to make an educated guess at how these runners will approach this race, by looking at how they've tended to race in their most recent outings as follows...

A couple of them aren't entirely consistent in the early days of their career, but I'd expect City Cyclone to be setting the pace and Mirabello Bay to be the early back marker. Brave Knight will probably also be towards the rear, whilst Bulldog Spirit is likely to be prominent. Both Overactive and Kyle of Lochalsh led in their last races, which was a new tactic for them, but it didn't produce a better run than their previous efforts, so they might not race as freely this time.

Summary

Based on the evidence (or lack of!) above, of the past winners, I think the more experienced and most successful Mirabello Bay would be the one to choose for my shortlist, joined by the pace of City Cyclone and possibly Kyle of Lochalsh, whose yard have a great record at this track and have won this particular race several times in the past.

The obvious pick would be Mirabello Bay with his 4 wins and 2 places from 14 starts, including 3 wins and 2 places from his last six, but closer analysis of his form shows that those six runs were all on the A/W and that his last run on turf was here at Windsor when third of seven over 1m2f last October. That was his sixth run on turf and his other five results read 77656, so he's not suddenly as hot as he might appear.

City Cyclone has ran well in both starts this season, finishing third on both occasions and of the four horses that beat him in those races, two won next time out, one made the frame and one has yet to re-appear, so those third places might have decent efforts and if afforded an easy lead here, he could go well again.

Kyle of Lochalsh is admittedly a bit of a "what-if" type of selection, it took him a while to get going last time out, but seemed to be getting the hang of it in the closing stages and his yard have done well here/in this race in the past.

To be honest, it's not really a race I'd ant to invest heavily in, if at all, but if push came to shove, I think that this trio would represent my best chance of filling the frame. As for a winner, there's nothing jumping out, but City Cyclone could well be the one, if allowed to set the tempo. Mirabello Bay might have got used to losing now, too!

I wrote the above just after 3pm on Sunday with only Bet365's odds available. To put money down on them, I'd want at least 8/1 for any of them as an E/W bet and only City Cyclone offered that opportunity at 9/1, so that's my tentative selection for (very) small stakes.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/05/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.15 Wolverhampton
  • 5.25 Killarney
  • 5.40 Musselburgh
  • 6.55 Killarney
  • 8.35 Windsor
  • 8.45 Southwell

The last of these looks like the being the best on paper, at least, so let's take a look at the 8.45 Southwell, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed two miles (2m½f after rail movements) on good to soft ground that will be softer in places with more showers expected...

Of the nine runners, only handicap debutant Toronet was a winner last time out, but that was in a poor climing race in France back in February and he now also makes a UK debut here. Of his rivals, only Tarahumara, Restandbethankful and With A Start failed to make the frame on their last run and the best looking formline belongs to Sea The Clouds (1122).

He now runs in a handicap for just the second time, as does Tarahumara, who has also had wind surgery since his last run. The bottom two on the card are the only class movers today, as the 12 yr old veteran McGowans Pass drops down a level and the sole mare, bottom weight Karannelle steps up a grade after back to back narrow defeats as a runner-up last year at Newton Abbot.

The last of those Newton Abbot runs was some 258 days ago and none of her rivals have been away from the track longer. Most of the field have raced in the last month, aside from Toronet (76d), Tarahumara (93d) and Sea The Clouds (175d).

None of this group have won here at Southwell before, mind you just three of them have raced here before (once each), but all bar French import Toronet have won at a similar trip.

Toronet hasn't raced in the UK before, so he obviously has no previous Class 4 win, but all of his rivals bar McGowans Pass have won at this grade, whilst just three of the field have won on good to soft or soft ground, according to Instant Expert...

You'd have to think that the Ground conditions would be against Elham Valley, Restandbethankful and McGowans Pass with a combined 1 win from 24 and both Elham Valley and McGowans Pass have toiled at Class 4. In fact, the latter just doesn't seem well suited to the task in hand at all and age isn't on his side. We do have a fair smattering of green above, but not enough to hang a bet from. I'm hoping the place stats can guide me a little closer...

Well, there's certainly more green, isn't there? And if we eliminate all the red blocks...

...it would seem that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly should be the ones, who'd relish conditions the most.

Today's feature is, of course, the PACE tab but before we look at how this field normally approach their races, let's have a quick look at how this kind of race has panned out historically here at Southwell...

...which says that leader win far more than their fair share of races and even to just make the frame, you don't want to be too lose to the back of the field, which doesn't look like good news for Too Friendly or Karannell based on this from their last four outings...

Expect McGowans Pass to set the pace, as he virtually always does and whilst he's a regular top 3 finisher, having done so in 10 of his last 14, he hasn't actually managed to hang on for a win in any of those races! What's likely here is that he gives Sea The Clouds a tow into the race and makes a target of himself in the closing stages.

Summary

Alphabetically, I think Elham Valley, Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly are the best horses in the race and that Sea The Clouds, Tarahumara and Too Friendly seem the best suited by conditions. Sea The Clouds also has the best pace profile of this shortlisted group and Too friendly looks like having too much to do from the back and if we look at the field's last few results, Sea The Clouds is the 'form' horse.

With that in mind, it would have to be Sea The Clouds for me here and 5/1 is decent enough. I'd expect the others named above to be there or thereabouts, whilst McGowans Pass might run well enough to hold on for a place, depending on what happens behind him.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 01/05/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.35 Down Royal
  • 3.05 Kempton
  • 3.20 Down Royal
  • 3.35 Curragh
  • 3.40 Kempton
  • 3.47 Warwick

And of the three UK races above, I'm going with the 3.40 Kempton, as it has the widest variation in pace profiles, as you'll see shortly. The race itself is a 12-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed three miles (although rail movements do add another half furlong to this) on good ground...

Latitude and Duc de Beahchene both won last time out and both have finsihed 321 in their last three outings and they bring the best form to the table. Hiway One O Three has been in the frame in each of his last four, but Kap Auteuil has been pulled up in four of his last five.

Duc de Beauchene and Hiway One O Three both step up a class from Class 4 runs in the last three weeks, but Danny Kirwan and Dorking Ladwere both last seen at Class 1, failing to complete the race.

Twenty Twenty os our sole course and distance winner, but Danny Kirwan(2m NHF), Dorking Lad(2m5f Chs) and Up The Straight (2m5f Hrd) have also won here at Kempton, whilst only Danny Kirwan, Dorking Lad, Kap Auteuil, Duc de Beauchene and Hiway One O Three have yet to win at this kind of trip.

Most of the field have been out in the last two months, but Danny Kirwan, Fogot To Ask and Twenty Twenty have been off for ten weeks, five months and one year respectively.

Instant Expert tells us that Hiway One O Three has never raced at Class 3, but that all bar Good Boy Bobboy of his rivals have a Class 3 NH win under their belts. We also see below that only Movethechains and Duc de Beauchene are yet to win on good ground...

The only alarm bells I get from the above are with the trip not suiting Sporting John and Forgot To Ask and that Duc de Beauchene, Movethechains and Hiway one O Three are now rated some 11, 9 and 7 pounds heavier than their last win with both Latitude and Danny Kirwan 6lbs up. Those stats above relate to all NH form, but let's also have a quick look at chasing place form...

...which would suggest that Danny Kirwan, Latitude, Forgot To Ask, Dorking Lad, Movethechains and Twenty Twenty might well be the half of the field to focus our attentions on in a race that has in the past tended to suit those setting the pace...

...with those travelling further back having decreasing chances of both wins/places, the further off the pace they have travelled, which brings us to our daily feature : PACE. We monito and log the running style of every runner and award a score of 1 to 4 for each run, where 1 = held up, 2 = mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4= led or in leading group and our field's last four outings look like this...

Summary

I felt that the half of the field I wanted to be with was (alphabetically) Danny Kirwan, Latitude, Forgot To Ask, Dorking Lad, Movethechains and Twenty Twenty and the pace stats suggest we want to be as forward as we can and my selected half dozen have average pace scores of 3.25, 2.50, 1.25, 1.50, 1.25 and 1.75 from which I'm now only really interested in Danny Kirwan and Latitude as potential winners and it's no surprise from the stats etc above that they're 1 and 2 in the market.

They both last won at Class 3, they're both 6lbs higher than that win, but Latitude is three years younger and clearly progressive whilst unexposed over fences, having made just four starts, but finishing 3321 culminating in a win on chase handicap debut. Danny Kirwan is no mug, though and he has made the frame in half of his eight starts over fences, winning twice, but he's older, might need a run after ten weeks off and did look tired and beaten when falling two out at Ascot last time out.

I think Danny Kirwan will run his race and go well here, but I expect the market to have this right and Latitude (10/3) should beat Danny Kirwan here (5/1) and hopefully we'll get a forecast too. The rest look much of a muchness, but Duc de Beauchene (8/1) and Good Boy Bobby (also 8/1) might be the best of them. Bookies are paying four places here, so they might be E/W options.

Racing Insights, Monday 17/04/23

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No column for the last two days of last week, as I was travelling through Europe to Crete, where I am now on their Easter Sunday. Enough of that, though, now back to work!

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Kelso
  • 4.40 Redcar
  • 5.15 Tramore
  • 5.25 Windsor
  • 5.40 Kelso

A handful of races for you to look at, but for me my dislike of April Flat / Irish / Bumper races leaves me with Hobson's Choice, the 3.20 Kelso! That said, it's a decent enough contest on paper, despite being a small field. The withdrawal of Methodtothemadness means that last year's winner and top weight Bavington Bob only has four rivals for this Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left handed 2m7½f. They'll have seventeen fences to clear on good to soft ground and here's the card...

None of these managed to win last time out, but both Marown and Domandlouis were runners-up and the former is now winless in eight, whilst Bavington Bob's win in this race last year was his last success and he's now on a losing streak of seven, but he is the sole course and distance winner in the field.

Of the others, Marown won a chase over 3m1f at Wetherby, whilst Saint Arvans and Domandlouis have both previously won here at Kelso over hurdles (2m½f & 2m5f respectively). Domandlouis is, however, up two classes here, whilst Bavington Bob drops down from Class 2, where five of his last seven runs/defeats have been.

Saint Arvans is turned out after just nine days rest, whilst Slanelough hasn't been seen for over 14 weeks.

Instant Expert suggests that last year's win by Bavington Bob might not have been a fluke as he would appear to be best suited by the conditions expected here...

Marown seems to have struggled at this grade over fences and if we're honest, he just hasn't won often enough since starting his career with a bumper win and two hurdles successes. Domandlouis hasn't much experience under today's conditions, but a line of red is less than encouraging. Bavington Bob is clearly the one at class/trip that they'd have to beat and the report of last year's triumph says...held up, headway on outer over 3 out, ridden in 2nd under 2 out and soon challenged, led last, ran on well and pulled clear flat, won comfortably by nine lengths...

His recent pace profile suggests that he's likely to be waited with once again...

...whilst the pace-setter is expected to be Slanelough, who has made all to win four of his last ten over fences, but it should be noted that he's 0 from 9 beyond 2m4f!

Leaders haven't had it all their own way in small field chases here at Kelso, though, but they have performed significantly better than hold-up horses, suggesting that Bavington Bob's success last season might have been a rare exception to the norm...

...stats that would appear to hand the initiative to Domandlouis, Saint Arvan & Marown.

Summary

Marown is the relatively short-priced favourite here at 15/8, but he's 2lbs heavier than when beaten over 2m4f last time out and I should point out that he lost his previous two by 33 and 47 lengths respectively when asked to run three miles, so 15/8 is too skinny for me.

Domandlouis is next best in the betting at 9/4, but he was beaten by 7.5 lengths over this trip last time out and is now up two classes, so it might well be right time/right place for last year's winner, Bavington Bob. Instant Expert says he'll relish the conditions most, he gets the track and trip and has a good record at Class 3. He's back to his last winning mark and although the pace profile casts doubts, it's not as though he'll have a wall of traffic ahead of him, there are only five runners here.

BB is currently priced at 7/2 with Hills and whilst I thought we might get a little more juice in the price than that, he'd be the one that represented best value here to me.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 20/03/23

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Taunton
  • 3.25 Navan
  • 3.45 Taunton

The latter of the two UK races appeal most to me both generally and from a pace perspective and whilst it's a small field, the race looks pretty competitive in the 3.45 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

Jpr One has two wins and a runner-up finish from five so far with wins over 2m1f at Exeter and over 2m3½f. Well beaten in his last two efforts, both at Graded level, he now drops two classes for a second crack at a handicap a full year and five days after he was last seen. Will probably need the run.

Mr Grey Sky won both bumper starts (Dec '18) and won back to back short distance hurdles in Jan/Feb '22, but hasn't tackled a hurdle for a year and has ran just once fences since then, finishing last of six at Hereford just before Christmas.

Zambezi Fix won LTO just over three weeks ago, when first home by a neck at Chepstow over today's trip, after been a heavy ground runner-up on his previous run in January. Up 4lbs here, but still expected to be in the mix.

Libberty Hunter had two wins and a place from four bumpers and his hurdles form reads 231 (all at Chepstow). He was only beaten by a length in a 15-runner contest on hurdles debut over today's trip in early November, but a step up to 2m3½f somewhat caught him short a month later, but another one month break and a drop back to today's trip saw him get off the mark over hurdles with a 1.25 length success. Up one class for his handicap debut here.

In The Air won over this trip on hurdles debut just over a year ago, but hasn't really shone since, finishing 6th of 9 at Aintree (over 100 lengths down) in a Grade 1, then falling at Fontwell prior to a 12 length defeat (6th of 9) at Ascot four months ago. No run since then and although down in class, might toil here.

Mamoom Star made the frame in his first two bumpers including a Listed race at Cheltenham at the start of 2022. He was then well beaten in two more bumpers before winning on hurdling debut last November here at Taunton (Class 4, 2m1f). Subsequently just 6th of 10 (45 lengths) at Kempton on Boxing Day, he then dropped two classes t0 run third of eight at Sandown a month ago. Now back up in class for his handicap debut.

All of which translates to a bit of a mixed bag form-wise...

Zambezi Fix looks unsuited by the trip, but has made the frame in four of his twelve defeats and with so little to go on from a win perspective, I think place form might help us more...

...where Zambeai Fix now looks more of a consistent, experienced performer, but it's Libberty Hunter catching the eye despite this being a class and course debut.

Feature of the day is pace and below you can see the pace scores from each runner's last four outings alongside a composite of their average score...

...suggesting Mr Grey Sky is likely to set the tempo of the contest, whilst Jpr One, In The Air and Zambezi Fix are all likely to be waited with. I've looked at past similar races and they haven't been kind to back markers...

Summary

You've probably guessed that I haven't spend long on this race and that's because you shouldn't be poring over small field low quality contests. Quickly ascertain if there's a bet for you and then move on is the Geegeez way!

I think there could be a bet here on Libberty Hunter. Up in class for a handicap debut, but in good form, scored well on IE place form and has the right kind of pace profile here. He's 11/4 with Bet365 (Sunday 7pm) and that's a bit longer than I expected, which is good.

As for a runner-up/placer/forecast horse, I did like Zambezi Fix initially, but a poor record at the trip and him being held-up have put me off so Mamoon Star might be the one at 13/2. He'll have to overcome a step up in class, but is running well and gets the trip readily.

Racing Insights, Monday 13/03/23

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.05 Stratford
  • 2.40 Stratford
  • 4.50 Thurles
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

And as that trio contains a Juvenile Hurdle, an Irish bumper and an A/W novice event, I think I'll look at the 2.40 Stratford, a 7-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase of 17 fences over a left handed 2m7½f (after an extra furlong for rail adjustments) on soft ground that is better in places...

GO STEADY has made the frame in half of his 18 chase outings, going on to win a very creditable six times (all on good to soft or 'worse'). He now drops in class and weight after finishing in mid-division at Kempton 16 days ago and has a win and a place from his last two runs at this grade. Gets on well with this jockey and shouldn't be bothered by underfoot conditions.

WHYDAH GALLY was a useful hurdler last season finishing 321F1 at Classes 3 & 4, but has failed to make much impact this season since being asked to jump fences. He was pulled up 4 out at Taunton at the end of last year in a race sandwiched by defeats of 27 and 20 lengths. Not sure he gets the trip over fences either.

NATIVE ROBIN is, at 13yo, surely in the twilight of a decent enough career that has seen him win 11 of 36 over fences, but since winning by just over a length in a Class 3, 2m4½f chase at Wincanton 13 months ago, has gone down by 19, 40, 33, 38 and 28 lengths in five successive defeats since and he's never raced as far as he'll asked to here, but does drop in class.

RAKHINE STATE is a late convert to chasing, as this 10yr old only tackled a fence for the first time when 3rd of 11 over 2m5f at Southwell at the end of November, which was a good effort considering he'd been off for 502 days. He followed that up with another third place finish next/last time out 66 days ago, but he did halve the margin of defeat from 20L to 10L, but would need to improve further to land a chase win at the third time of asking and he's another who has never gone this far.

RESERVE TANK started his chasing career by finishing 212 in three Class 1 (Lst/Gr2/Gr2) Novice events in Oct/Nov 2019, but has results of PFPPP47 since, which is hardly inspiring. Interspersed amongst those seven chase failures, he ahs also raced eleven times over hurdles, making the frame just once in a run of form reading 5PP528P6433, making one place and eight incomplete runs from eighteen starts. I suspect that first-time blinkers won't work a miracle here.

ANIMAL got off the mark over fences at the third attempt, landing a 2m6f soft ground affair at Fakenham on New Year's Day 2022 and despite a run of five defeats since (36337), he's still 3lbs higher than that win and his record higher than Class 5 is lamentable.

ICAQUE DE L'ISLE was first and third in back to back six-runner 2m2f chases at Aix-Les-Bains in June/July of last year, but has failed to score in three attempts since crossing the channel. He was a well beaten (41 lengths) 3rd of 5 over a soft ground 3m at Ffos Las in early November, but got to within 10 lengths of the winner on Boxing Day, when 2nd of 8 over 2m4f at Huntingdon (gd to soft) and got closer still next/last time out at Hereford five weeks ago, when beaten by 4.5 lengths over 2m5f on good ground. Eased a pound here and getting weight all round, he is improving but the going and the trip are a concern.

Instant Expert shows the field's record in similar conditions, but based on the above, I'm not expecting much positivity...

Short of his third placed finish here on his only previous visit to Stratford, Go Steady is probably the eyecatcher, although the sadly out of form veteran Native Robin does have some good numbers from his past. Elsewhere there are some tales of woe for Animal at this level and on this going and there's far too many red blocks for my liking, perhaps the place stats will look better?

Well, Go Steady and Native Robin are still very strong and you can start to make a case for both Animal and Icaque de L'isle to make the frame, but they've got improvement to make here. The feature of the day is PACE, of course and our pace analyser tells us that in similar races to this, leaders have been hauled in by the pack and have generally been defeated, whilst hold-up horses have struggled to make ground up...

...suggesting an average pace score in the 2.00 to 3.00 region might well be advantageous. If wee look at this field's most recent efforts...

...it looks like Native Robin will be the one setting the pace with most of the field keeping in touch not too far away ready to engulf him in the closing stages. That's likely to be his downfall and it's also likely to be tough for the likes of Rakhine State and Animal from the back.

Summary

Quite simply, I like Go Steady here. A very competent chaser down in class and weight, no issues with the ground or the trip and gets on well with today's rider and the 9/2 available at 6.30pm on Sunday was a bit of a pleasant surprise.

Elsewhere, pace is likely to be the undoing of Native Robin, Rakhine State and Animal and neither are in great form anyway, leaving Whydah Gally, Icaque de l'isle and Reserve Tank as the challengers for second spot. I have doubts about Whydah Gally getting the trip and although unexposed over fences, hasn't got close to winning whilst Reserve Tank is in a horrible run of form.

All of which almost be default leads us to the French 5yr old Icaque de l'isle, who has yet to win in the UK but is slowly improving. I think he'll go well here if getting the trip and I've no doubts he's going to win races, but might have to settle for silver here, although the bookies disagree with me and have him as the fav at prices around the 2/1 mark, which seem a little skinny.

Racing Insights, Monday 27/02/23

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We make one of the racecards tools free to all each day and on Mondays the freebie is PACE, an often over-looked facet of UK betting, but if you know how horses are likely to approach a race, you've a better chance of working whether they're going to be in with a shout of winning. We log the pace of every horse in every race and we show their last four outings under the pace tab on our racecards. We think pace is so important that we open the pace tab up to all readers for all races not once, but twice a week.

That's right, the pace tab is freely available on Sundays and Mondays, including our daily 'races of the day', which for Monday are...

  • 3.50 Ayr
  • 4.25 Ayr
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

And I'm going to look at the last of those three, because the pace-map looks like this...

...and I'm going to try and see if attempting to make all is the right approach to winning the 5.30 Wolverhampton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap (amateur jockeys) over a left=handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta...

Super Den is clearly the 'form' horse here, having won his last two and with three wins/two places from his last five. We've no other LTO winners here, but top weight The Menstone Gem and Dream Harder are both two from five, whilst May Night is the only other runner in the field with a 'recent' win.

We've lots of class movers here, as only four of these (The Menstone Gem, Society Red, Visibilty and Sir Plato) ran at Class 4 LTO. Four (Precision Storm, Dream Harder, May Night and They Don't Know) drop in from Class 3, but Super Den is up a class and bottom-weight Taqwaa is up two from Class 6.

Sir Plato is making a yard debut today, as he runs for the first time since mid-November, but aside from The Memstone Gem's near three month break and the 33 days since Society red's last outing, the other seven have all raced in the last seventeen days with Visibility out as recently as Friday here at Wolverhampton.

He was only 4th of 7 here on Friday, but Visibility is a former course and distance winner, as are Precision Storm, Dream Harder and Society Red. The only other course winner, May Night, scored here over both 7f and 1m½f, whilst elsewhere The Memstone Gem has won over 1,1f at Newmarket and over 1m2f at Newcastle.

Today's free feature is, of course, pace and I'll add some meat shortly to the bones of the pace map I posted at the start, but I wanted to add that Precision Storm, May Night and Super Den have all been denoted as fast finishers. We know how our course, distance and C&D winners, but Instant Expert also gives us the lowdown on going, class and weights v last win...

...where fast-finishing May Night would be a definite eye-catcher on a slightly slower surface, although he has also won on the rarely seen Standard to Fast here at Wolverhampton! Society Red's numbers are pretty consistent and Dream Harder would make even more appeal at Class 5, where he's 3 from 6. I'm concerned about Precision Storm's 1/13 at C4, he's also better a grade lower. Visibility likes it here and gets the trip, but would also suit being a class lower, whilst They Don't Know and Taqwaa are 0/15 and 0/10 respectively on the All-Weather!

Sir Plato is a whopping 12lbs higher than his sole A/W win from six attempts, way back in March 2017 and is still 8lbs higher than his most recent turf win seven starts ago and Society red is now 6lbs lower than his C&D win her a year ago, but has won off today's mark on turf since then. The others are 4-6lbs higher than their own last A/W wins.

And now back to the pace map that we started with, but with runner's names and individual pace scores from their last four outings...

...where it's top weight The Memstone Gem who'll probably attempt to make all from stall 3. To work out whether this is a good or bad tactic, let's consider which pace tactics have worked best here previously, which draw(s) are the best (if any) and how the pace and draw have worked together, starting with past race pace profiles...

...which suggest that those who lead do well, which is good news for The Memstone Gem on the face of it, but the truth is that there's not that much in it, as long as you're not on a hold-up type. The chances of winning or placing do diminish the further back you race, but the differences between leading and running in mid-division are negligible here, so let's see if there's a draw bias to be had from those 160+ races above...

Based on these numbers, the place to be drawn is anywhere from stalls 3 to 7, which would be good news (on paper, at least) for the likes of The Memstone Gem, Precision Storm, Sir Plato, Visibility and Taqwaa, so you'd now be expecting The Memstone Gem fondness of leading allied to his draw to give him a great chance here and the pace/draw heat map says that he is in a really good place to be...

...but a fair distance shy of the success achieved by high-drawn mid-divisional runners and by overlaying this field's draw and recent pace averages, we can see if anyone fits that bill...

...and this suggests a trio of May Night, Super Den and They Don't Know has having the best of it.

Summary

May Night, Super Den and They Don't Know come out best on pace/draw with The Memstone Gem handily placed too. The latter is the likely pace-setter here and his chances of success will rest upon how much daylight he can put between himself and the pack early doors, but he's currently 9/1 with Hills and wouldn't be a terrible E/W option, especially as his form on Tapeta reads 12213.

As for the high-drawn mid-dvisional trio, They Don't Know is least likely to be involved because although he has a 40% place strike rate on the A/W, he's still winless in 15 in this sphere and hasn't made the frame in three tapeta outings. May Night also looks a reasonable E/W bet at 8/1 a fortnight after finishing less than a length and a half further back than Precision Storm over this course and distance at a higher grade. Precision Storm is the 3/1 favourite here, but May Night runs off the same mark as LTO whilst the fav is up 2lbs and there's a good chance of the placings being reversed.

Which leaves us with Super Den, who has been in cracking form on the A/W this winter finishing 13211 and although he's up in trip, class and weight, he certainly looked like having plenty ion hand when scoring by two and a quarter lengths last time out, suggesting a 5lb rise might not yet be enough to anchor him. He's by no means a cert here, but a 4/1 pricetag looks fair if nothing else.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/02/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.15 Carlisle
  • 4.45 Lingfield
  • 5.00 Newcastle

...from which I'm heading North East for a quick look at the 5.00 Newcastle, a six-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4½f on standard tapeta...

VICTORY MARCH has failed to make the frame in three starts this year after winning each of his last three in 2022 and finishing 1212111 in his last seven of that year. That run of form took his mark from 53 to 80 and he now looks too high in the weights to win. He is, however, down in class and has won two of three previous efforts over course and distance.

BUXTED TOO looks the form horse here, finishing 3111 in four starts this year, winning three times at 1m4f/1m4½f after a third over 1m2f. The mniddle of those three wins was here over course and distance and although he's up 3lbs for hi last win, he is down in class and will probably be the one to beat.

GREEN PLANET is a 13-race maiden across five spheres (1 x NHF, 1 x chs, 6 x hrds, 2 x flat and 3 x A/W) and hasn't raced on the Flat for 21 months nor on the A/W for 23 months, but his A/W form does read 223. That said, he really looks up against it here on his yard debut for Jedd O'Keeffe.

CASA LUNA is also a maiden, but after just three unplaced (4th of 9, 3rd of 7 & 3rd of 6) runs on polytrack. She's also making her yard (and handicap) debut here for Philip Kirby off an opening mark of 71, which seems neither generous or onerous if truth be told. She was well beaten over a mile and also over 1m4f, but was only beaten by just over half a length at Chelmsford over 1m2f on her second outing and that might be her trip. Others make a better case here.

TYPEWRITTEN is the third of the trio making starts for new handlers today and she comes here after a pair of placed (2 x 3rd of 10) finishes in Class 5 A/W handicaps over 1m6f and then 2m½f on tapeta at Southwell and Wolverhampton. This grey mare now drops back in trip, but she has raced ten times (3 wins and 3 places) over 1m4f, so that drop shouldn't be an issue and I'd expect her to go well.

JUBILEE GIRL has just six races under her belt and having finished 544 in three runs on turf last summer to acquire a handicap mark of 65, she took six months off prior to an A/W campaign this winter starting with a pipe opener over 1m2f here at Newcastle on Jan 13th. She then won over 1m3f at Southwell eight days later, before going down to the re-opposing Buxted Too here over C&D 13 days later (17 days ago) She was a runner-up that day, beaten by just a length. Jubilee Girl is now 5lbs better than Buxted Too, so there's every chance she could overturn the deficit, especially if she's handily placed late on as she's marked on the card as a fast finisher.

At this point Buxted Too and Jubilee girl seem the pair to focus on and this is backed by Instant Expert, albeit off small amounts of data...

Now these two couldn't be drawn any further apart here, but regular readers of my 'stuff' know that I don't always place huge importance on the draw when you've got a small field over a trip longer than a mile, but there are exceptions to every rule and the stats suggest that a mid-to-high draw here is better than being drawn low...

...which is advantage Buxted Too over Jubilee Girl and if we run those same races above through our Pace Analyser...

...we find that those who have been waited with are the ones to be on and that unsurprisingly the next graphic, the pace/draw heat map, shows a strong bias to mid-t0-high drawn hold up types...

If we the revert back to our draw and our two initially favoured runners, Jubilee Girl's best chance from Stall 1 would appear to come from a prominent running style, whilst wider out, Buxted Too would be advised to tuck in towards the back.

But how do we know how they'll run? Well, sadly, we don't! But because we log every runner's racing style, we can often build up a fairly clear picture of how they might run. We allocate a score of 1 to a hold-up run, 2 denotes mid-division positioning with 3 for a prominent run. Leaders get 4 (surprise, surprise) and here's how the field have raced in their last four (last three for Casa Luna, of course) outings...

...and this suggests that both Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl like to race in a prominent position and that it's Victory March and/or Typewritten who will be the back marker(s). The latter, typewritten was interesting from my write-ups above, when I said I'd expect her to go well and from an ideal Pace/Draw setup, she should be the main challenge to Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl.

Summary

I've just said that Typewritten should be the main challenge to Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl and that's exactly how I see it, but to get involved she'll need one of that pair to run poorly. She's currently a 6/1 shot, which isn't quite long enough for my liking as an E/W play when there are only two places paid, because I can't see her beating both of the favoured pair. However, if a 25% profit from the race is enough for you, than a 6/1 E/W bet on Typewritten might suit you.

As for the winner, Buxted Too and Jubilee Girl are best priced at 15/8 and 7/2, but I don't think those odds reflect their respective chances and I'd have expected something closer to 9/4 vs 11/4 when you consider than Jubilee Girl is 5lbs better off than a one length defeat and I think that she would be the value play here at 7/2 with Bet365. (forecasts and reverse forecasts, too?)

Racing Insights, Monday 06/02/23

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.00 Fontwell
  • 5.30 Wolverhampton

...but none of them really appeal to me, so I decided to have a quick look at the pace graphic for every race on Monday and the one with the biggest spread was this...

...from the 7.30 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 6, 3yo A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m1½f on standard tapeta. Here's the card...

Top-weight Mint Edition is the form horse here and comes seeking a hat-trick, whilst Gilded Moon is the only other with a recent win and none of Mint Edition's rivals even made the frame LTO.

Those two recent winners above are the only two not moving in class, as four (Sprezzatura, Grand Central, Fox Flame and bottom-weight Ski Jump) all drop from Class 5, whilst Quizlet raced at Class 4 LTO.

Ski Jump makes just a second handicap run and wears first-time cheekpieces whilst both Quizlet and Fox Flame make handicap debuts in a field rated 16lbs different from top to bottom. As for the field's last run, two (Mint Edition & Grand Central) have been quickly sent back out after 3 & 6 days rest respectively, three (Sprezzatura, Gilded Moon & Ski Jump) return from a short break of a fortnight or slightly longer, but both handicap debutants have been off for three months or more and might need a run.

None of these have won at either track nor trip. Mind you, only two of these have won a race before, so we'll probably need to concentrate on the second (places) of these two Instant Expert graphics...

...where it seems that those yet to win, don't even make the frame either!

So let's go back to that pace graphic we started with also add in the recent pace scores...

...and then compare that with past similar races here at Wolverhampton...

...where those racing furthest forward have the best record for win and place. Prominent runners make the frame as often as leaders but are only 73.5% as likely to win and the two I'd take from the pace chart would be Gilded Moon & Grand Central based on their last two outings, yet this pair are drawn apart in stalls 5 & 1 respectively, so who might have the best draw, if there is any advantage to be gained?

Our draw stats from those 120-odd races above say that a mid to high draw works best...

...with stalls 3 to 5 possibly the best place to be...

...which might be good news for Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon, whilst the pace draw heatmap...

...might look a little like this when we superimpose our field's draw and recent pace scores...

...where despite the difference in the draw, our two pace 'standouts' Grand Central & Gilded Moon look best placed on the combo.

Summary

Not a great race if truth be told, but I picked it purely to highlight the differing pace approaches taken in a race. I quickly assessed the field for form, race suitability, pace and draw and these were the ones that interested me most...

Form : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Instant Expert : Mint Edition & Gilded Moon
Pace : Gilded Moon & Grand Central
Draw : Mint Edition, Ski Jump & Gilded Moon
Pace/Draw : Grand Central & Gilded Moon

It's a fairly simplistic approach I've taken, of course, but of 11 names above Mint Edition is three of them and Gilded Moon is five, so they're the two I'm interested in now.

For me, Mint Edition should be winning this all day long and actually beat Gilded Moon by 6½ lengths on the latter's last outing 17 days ago. Gilded Moon is now 8lbs better, giving the filly a better chance of getting close, but a runner-up spot is surely the best she can hope for.

At the time I wrote this, only Hills had opened a book and they were putting Mint Edition up as an even money favourite and whilst I'm not into backing shorties, those of you who do might want to consider this one, as there could well still be some value in that price.

The beauty of a short-priced fav is that you can often get a decent E/W bet from it and the 10/1 about Gilded Moon might either be a little generous or a wasted stake. I think she's better than 10/1, whether she succeeds or not.

Racing Insights, Monday 23/01/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.00 Ffos Las
  • 3.30 Ffos Las
  • 5.10 Southwell
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

...from which we'll look at the 3.30 Ffos Las, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2m4f on soft (heavy in places) ground...

FORM : No Tackle won last time out, whilst Rocky Man and Equinus were both runners-up. Emmpressive Lady, Jimmy Jimmy and Sabbathcial all failed to complete. In addition to our sole LTO winner, four others (Emmpressive Lady, Rocky Man, New Found Fame and Sabbathical) have all won at least one of their most recent outings. Jimmy Jimmy has failed to finish four of his last five!

CLASS : Pileon, Whitehotchillifili & Gladiateur Allen are all down a class, whilst Equinus and No Tackle are up one grade with Sabbathical stepping up two classes.

WHAT'S NEW/DIFFERENT? : Both of those stepping up one class (Equinus and No Tackle) are on handicap debut, whilst New Found Fame is having a second attempt. Jimmy Jimmy makes both a yard and UK debut after recently leaving Gordon Elliott.

Emmpressive Lady is one of just two (Whitehotchillifili the other) mares in the race and she's running for the first time since a wind op, whilst LTO winner No Tackle wears a tongue tie for the first time.

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM : All bar Master Debonair, Equinus and Blacko hve won at a similar trip to this one, but top weight and class dropper Pileon is the only one to have won here, landing a 2m5f contest in January 2020.

LAST RUN : Emmpressive Lady's wind op took place during her 341 days off track, but all her rivals have been seen in the past two months with Gladiateur Allen turned back out quickest at 16 days.

Instant Expert highlights our sole course winner and the nine to have won at a similar trip noted above, but also shows that all bar one have won on soft/heavy ground, but that only three have won a Class 3 NH contest, yet four (Pileon, Emmpressive Lady, Master Debonair & Gladiateur Allen) have won at Class 2!

There's quite a bit of red on there, but much of it off small numbers of runs in fairness. Whitehotchillifili's 1 from 7 at the trip might need looking at, as might Gladiateur Allen's 1 from 8 and Sabbathical's 1 from 7, but the latter's 2 from 21 on soft/heavy is more of a concern, to be honest followed by his 0 from 8 at this track. Along with Jimmy Jimmy, who can't seem to get round I'd suggest that Sabbathical is amongst the weakest here and I'm discarding the pair.

The top four on the card have multiple wins on this going and Emmpressive Lady's 3 wins and 2 places from 8 is probably the pick of the pack. Overall, if we then switch our focus to place form, Rocky Man would seem best suited all round...

...and based just on the above place form, I'd going to cross Master Debonair & Blacko off for having no green and also Equinus for a lack of relevant experience : he's had three runs, all at 2m at lower grades and has yet to win. He's on handicap debut and might well need the benefit of a debut.

All of which leaves me with seven to consider and this is how they've approached their last four races...

That data suggests that Rocky Man and New Found Fame are likely to be waited with in a race, where the mare Whitehotchillifili is the one most likely to set the pace. Past similar races here haven't been kind to hold-up horses...

This actually poses a problem for me, as I think that Rocky Man might be the 'best' horse in the race, but closer inspection says he was a runner-up here over course and distance last time out , failing to make up enough ground from a hold-up position and losing by two lengths. A repeat of that run doesn't necessarily make him win this one and a 2lb rise in weight after not winning mighty well make him go down again.

Summary

I expected to be making a case for Rocky Man here and he might well go on to win, but I'm concerned about him trying to make up ground in the mud off a higher weight than last time out. That said, if there was a bit of juice in the price, he still might not have been a bad bet, but as a 15/8 or 2/1 fav, he's not for me. I think the two that fascinate me most are the mares, Emmpressive Lady and Whitehotchiilifili, particularly the latter.

The Lady has admittedly been off track for just over 11 months, but has had a wind op in that time. She was also pulled up LTO, but that was a 3m2½f affair on soft ground at Hereford, where she ran out of steam 3 out, just 3 days after winning over 2m7½f at a higher grade. This is much shorter and she'd won her previous two before that race and had actually won four and finished as a runner-up once in the seven races prior to that PU run LTO. She's currently 10/1 with bet365 paying four places and that mightn't be a bad shout.

As for Whitehot, she's a bit shorter at 15/2 but could also make the first four home, based on past place form. She has made the frame in 9 of 21, including 7 of 16 on soft/heavy. She has won a Listed race in the past and was beaten by less than 4 lengths in a Grade 2 race at Ascot a year ago.

Racing Insights, Monday 16/01/22

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 1.10 Hereford
  • 1.20 Punchestown
  • 2.30 Fontwell
  • 3.40 Hereford

And as that list contains an Irish race and two UK novices events, my dislike of both leads me to the 2.30 Fontwell. It might well be low on numbers and there may well be a very short priced fav, but we might get a nice placer for the forecast,  it's not a bad standard of race and it's a stayers' contest on tricky ground (a 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over 3m2f on heavy ground) as follows...

Coolvalla is four from five and comes here on the back of three straight wins. Premier D'Troice was placed LTO but Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both failed to complete, whilst Echo Watt is the only one without a win in their last five runs (eleven to be precise!).

Putdecashonthedash and Alminar both raced at this grade three weeks ago, but Coolvalla & Premier D'Troice are up one class with Echo Watt up two levels. All five ran 21 or 26 days ago.

All bar bottom-weight Echo Watt have won at a similar trip to this one, whilst all bar Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have won here at Fontwell with both Premier D'Troice & Coolvalla successful over course and distance, a feat achieved by the latter LTO and three starts back.

Instant Expert highlights these and other stats...

As you can see, all have won on heavy ground, which is a start and the top two on the card seem to make most appeal here. Likely short-priced fav Coolvalla is only 1/4 on heavy, but has also won three of four on soft. Putdecashonthedash and Alminar have both struggled at this grade and are probably Class 4 horses at best.

COOLVALLA won just once from six races over hurdles, but has been a revelation over fences, winning all three efforts culminating in a 19 lengths course and distance rout on Boxing Day. He has been stung with an 11lb rise as shown above, but I doubt that's enough to anchor him.

PREMIER D'TROICE was a runner up here over C&D back in May before scoring over this trip at Uttoxeter six weeks alter. Has struggled in a couple of races off 7/8lbs higher, but was third last time out off a mark of 117 (3 higher than his last win) and now eased another couple of pounds, could go well again.

PUTDECASHONTHEDASH hasn't raced much of late and last won almost a year when landing a Class 4 chase over this trip on good ground at Plumpton. He was then off the track for ten months and was pulled up on his return at Wincanton in early December. His only outing since then was on Boxing Day back at Wincanton where he fell halfway through the race.

ALMINAR was a surprising winner at Ffos Las two months ago when landing a 3m soft ground Class 4 chase despite not having raced for 17 months, but hasn't backed that run up in two starts since. He was 7th of 11, beaten by 31 lengths at Exeter and was subsequently puled up at Wincanton on Boxing Day in the same race that Putdecashonthedash was a faller.

ECHO WATT was a runner-up here in early November, 7 lengths behind Coolvalla, on his return from a nine month break, but unseated his rider next time out in what was the first of three Class 5 2m6½f/2m7½f chases at Lingfield. The middle race saw him second of twelve, beaten by nearly six lengths and most recently he was fourth of ten, more than twenty five lengths adrift. Up two classes and 3½f here on the back of eleven defeats, he'd be an unlikely winner for me even if he is now 27lbs better of with the fav.

Today's feature is, of course, pace and based upon a system of 1 = held-up, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led or was one of the leaders, this is how the field have raced in their last four respective starts...

Coolvalla's last three are his entire chase career and with a 3 and a 4 in there, I'd expect him to be prominent here, Premier D'Troice is essentially a hold-up horse, Putdecashonthedash will want to set the pace with Echo Watt racing prominently and Alminar little further back but ahead of Premier D'Troice. I know I've made a couple of assumptions/surmisations there, but I'd expect them to head out in this order...
4 : Putdecashonthedash / Coolvalla
3 : Echo Watt
2 : Alminar
1 : Premier D'Troice

A quick look at the Geegeez Pace Analyser for past similar races shows...

...that leaders fare much better than any other running style with hold-up horses having a good place record.

Summary

The pace analyser points to a leader winning the race and with Putdecashonthedash inspiring very little confidence from recent runs, that leaves us with the fav Coolvalla. And if the hold-up horses make the frame in these small fields, then that points towards Premier D'Troice, but does that fit in with the rest of my quick analysis?

Well, yes! They bring the best form to the table, scored best on Instant Expert, they're the two C&D winners and carry the least amounts of doubts of the five at play here.

I don't however, see Premier beating the fav, so in my eyes, it's the 4/6 Coolvalla beating the 7/1 Premier D'Troice. I don't like backing odd-on jollies, but that's up to you. I do like playing the exacta/forecast type of bets and at 7/1 in a five-horse race, Premier D'Troice could be an attractive E/W proposition.