Tag Archive for: pace

Racing Insights, Monday 29/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 5.00 Ayr
  • 6.20 Naas
  • 7.39 Windsor
  • 7.50 Naas
  • 9.00 Wolverhampton

If truth be told, none of the three UK races above appeal to me for one reason or another (never bet in a race that doesn't interest you!), so I'm going to look at the highest-rated/most valuable UK race of the day, the 6.39 Windsor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Flat handicap over 1m2f around the figure of eight on soft ground...

Early indications/thoughts are that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) top-weight Asgard's Captain, fast-finisher Fast Steps and sole LTO winner Mythical Guest, but let's have a closer look to see what we can find.

Mythical Guest was indeed the only one these nine runners to win last time out, but Fast Steps and First Officer were both runners-up and Asgard's Captain has won three of his last four before going down by four lengths at Lingfield on Good Friday. On the other hand, Enthrallment, Fast Steps and Grey Fox are on losing runs, having been beaten in their last 12, 7 and 8 races respectively.

Fast Steps' and Grey Fox's hopes of breaking their losing runs won't be helped by a step up in class here and LTO winner Mythical Guest is also up from Class 5, but Asgard's Captain, The Whipmaster and First officer all step down a level. Only four of the field have raced in the past month, as Enthrallment, Silver Gunn, First Officer, The Whipmaster and Grey Fox return from respective breaks of 101, 144, 178, 178 and 228 days.

Enthrallment has moved yards during his layoff and is the only one of the nine without a win at a similar trip to this one and of the five to have raced here at Windsor before, only Mythical Guest has failed to win, as The Whipmaster scored here over 1m3½f last June and Silver Gunn, Fast Steps & Grey Fox are all former course and distance winners. This info is shown on Instant Expert, along with details of three former soft ground winners...

...there's no real standout candidate there, but Silver Gunn's numbers are pretty decent. I should refer to Asgard's Captain now being some 34lbs higher than his last win, too. He is indeed running off 89 which is 34lbs higher than the 49 he was rated when winning at Musselburgh in August 2023. Since then, he had a twenty-week break before racing solely on the A/W this year finishing 1521118 winning off marks of 63, 68, 73 and 79, so he's 'only' 4lbs higher than his last actual win and could be weighted nicely if bringing his A/W game to the Turf.

Our draw analyser suggests that those drawn lowest here might be at a disadvantage from a win perspective...

...but have as good a chance of any of making the frame and if we look at how those 40-odd races were won, we find that those prepared to set the pace have been the most successful...

...and if recent races are anything to go by...

...Asgard's Captain could very well be afforded an easy early lead.

Summary

The draw/pace stats suggest a high draw coupled with a willingness to lead could be the perfect storm here with 6 high drawn leaders from 14 making the frame with 4 (28.57%) going on to win...

Asgard's Captain is drawn highest of all and tops the pace chart, he has won 6 of his last 10, 5 of his last 8 and 3 of his last 4 and was a winner on his last outing in this grade, so it's Asgard's Captain at 7/2 (Sunday 5pm) for me here.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 22/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 3.22 Pontefract
  • 4.10 Windsor
  • 5.20 Windsor
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 7.10 Tramore
  • 7.30 Kempton

...from which the highest rated UK race is the 6.00 Kempton, a 13-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 2m2f on good ground...

No LTO winners on display here, but General Medrano was third, Fringill Dike's last four runs have finished 111F, Issar D'Airy's last five are 13115, Alto Alto's last three read 112 and bottom weight Duhallow Tommy has finished 31112 in his last five, so quite a few have been in decent nick. Only Frere D'Armes is on a winless run of more than six races, having lost eight on the bounce. In his defence, they were all Class 1 and 2 races and he did win his last start at this level and is now only 2lbs higher than that win.

So, for me, the 'form' runners are General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade.

As above, Frere D'Armes now drops a class to run here, as do three others in the top six in the weights, Thelasthighking, Prince Escalus and Le Ligieren (trained by the Tizzards who won this race in both '22 and '23), whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are both up from Class 4 for this one, if they do turn out at all.

I suggest that Whodini and Charlie's Glance might not run, because they both ran on Saturday at Bangor, but in different races. The rest of their rivals have had at least three weeks rest with three of them, Prince Escalus, Another Crick and Fringill Dike returning from breaks of longer than seven weeks; 128, 163 and 186 days respectively to be precise! Prince Escalus' connections will hope that wind surgery during his layoff will help here along with a first-time tongue-tie.

We've not much in the way of previous course and/or distance form, but General Medrano. Le Ligieren and Duhallow Tommy have all won at a similar trip to this one, whilst Le Ligieren (2m5f chase) and Another Crick (2m4½f chase) are both former track winners with the class dropping Frere D'Armes our sole course and distance winner, albeit way back in November 2022!

As for other relevant past form, Instant Expert has the numbers as always...

...where Le Ligerien and Another Crick seem to have struggled to win races at this level. The former should like the going, though whilst Prince Escalus' good ground record isn't the best after quite a few attempts, but he is now rated 4lbs below his last win unlike Issar D'Airy and Thelasthighking who now run off marks 8lbs and 9lbs higher than their last win. Frere D'Armes looks dangerous albeit off a small sample size of races.

Irrespective of their ability to win the race, the place data from those races above should show us who might run a decent (if not ultimately successful) race...

...where Another Crick looks one of the least likely to get involved. Thelasthighking is interesting at this class of race with 4 places from 4 to go with a 2 from 2 track place record, but he's not my idea of a winner with that extra 9lbs to burden.

Monday's free Geegeez Gold feature is, of course, PACE and our unique pace analyser tells us that in similar past contests, leaders have accounted for 12.9% (32/248) of the runners, but have managed to win 31.8% (7/22) of the races and provide 20.6% (14/68) of the placers...

...so if possible, I want us to be on a horse that likes to lead or be up with the pace and we can make a reasoned assumption (guess?) as to who might lead, by looking at how the field have run in their last few races by allocating a score 4 to those that led, 3 for a prominent run, 2 for a mid-division positioning and 1 for those who were held-up as follows...

Fringill Dike is a confirmed front-runner and Le Ligierien also likes to be kept handy, whilst Whodini and Charlie's Glance are definite hold-up types.

Summary

The horses that I considered to be in the best form were General Medrano, Fringill Dike, Issar D'Airy, Alto Alto and Duhallow Tommy with an eye on Frere D'Armes back in this grade. All of these should be involved in the final mix and Frere D'Armes was one of few to catch the eye on Instant Expert along with Thelasthighking, but of the 'form' horses, Fringill Dike looks best suited from a pace perspective, so Fringill Dike is my tentative pick here at 6/1 based on this show at 6.15pm on Sunday...

Frere D'Armes and Duhallow Tommy should both run decent races, but if I was to think about an E/W bet, then Thelasthighking might well fit the bill at 10's. I was thinking about General Medrano at a similar price, but I'm worried that the ground/race might end up being a bit too quick for him.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.50 Windsor
  • 3.42 Redcar
  • 4.20 Windsor
  • 6.30 Kempton

from which, I'm going to look at the 3.42 Redcar, a Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft/heavy ground. It's my first foray into the 2024 Flat campaign, so fingers crossed as I go through this card...

The top two on the card, Noble Order and Look Back Smiling both won last out with the the latter now on a hat-trick, whilst the former has won two of his last three. Of the remainder, only Shaladar and Titian are winless in six, having been beaten in their last twelve and eleven races respectively.

Shaladar is denoted as being a fast finisher (clearly not fast enough!) and he does have the benefit of having raced in this grade last time out, as do Legend of Leros and Ron O with the other seven all moving one class. Noble Order steps up from a win at Class 4, but Look Back Smiling, Pisanello, Spirit Genie, Spirit Genie, Thunder Roar, Titian and Clear Angel all drop down from Class 2.

After breaks of 117, 152 and 185 days respectively, you could say that Legend of Leros, Shaladar and Pisanello might be in need of a run and Legend of Leros was gelded during his break and now sports a tongue tie for the first time.

Legend of Leros is also one of three runners (along with Spirit Genie and Thunder Roar) yet to win over this trip, whilst Ron O is the only previous Redcar (and counrse and distance) winner in the field...

There's not a lot to write home about from Instant Expert above, but Thunder Roar should appreciate the underfoot conditions and he does come here off the back of an excellent season-opener in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, where he was only half a length behind Look Back Smiling (and is a pound better off here). Pisanello has struggle to win Class 3 races on turf (1 from 9). Ron O loves the mile track here at Redcar, where he is 2 from 3, but his overall profile is erratic and unreliable.

A quick look at the place stats only really serves to put another cross by the name of Legend of Leros...

...so we'll move swiftly to the data we have on draw and today's feature, pace.

It's not the biggest sample size I've ever worked with, but the data from past races here at Redcar show that horses drawn lowest have fared best over straight races...

...and if we look at the pace profile of those races, we see that hold-up horses have struggled to win/place...

...but the other three running styles have gone well enough with those just in behind the leader(s) doing best of all. The combined pace/draw heat map goes on to suggest that low-drawn runners who race in mid-division are the ones to beat...

...closely followed by low-drawn prominence, low-drawn leaders and mid-drawn prominent runners.

We already know our draw...

...and we can look back on the field's last few races to make an educated guess as to how they'll run today...

...giving us this...

Summary

Titian, Noble Order, Legend of Leros and Thunder Roar look the most likely from our pace/draw heat map, but Titian was only 14th of 18 in the Spring Mile where Look Back smiling and Thunder Roar finished 1-2. I don't see him making up over 16 lengths on that pair today, so he's a no from me; as was Legend of Leros from an early stage of my analysis.

We didn't glean much from Instant Expert today, but we did learn that Thunder Roar should love the underfoot conditions, coming here with a soft/heavy record reading 213112. He's also in good nick with two wins and two places from his last four outings and an overall 70% place record on turf. He's a pound better off with his LTO victor, Look Back Smiling, today and that must give him a great shout here. Whether he reverses the placings is unclear, but either way, I suspect that this pair will both have to play second fiddle to Noble Order, who defied a 15-month absence to win cosily back in February.

That said, Noble Order's a bit shorter than I hoped he might be, so I'd probably suggest that E/W plays on Look Back Smiling and/or Thunder Roar would be the play today, based the odds offered at 6.45pm Sunday.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 08/04/24

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 3.20 Newcastle
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.08 Wincanton
  • 4.30 Lingfield

...from which I've selected the 4.08 Wincanton as it's the highest-rated race of the four. It's an 8-runner (Dartmoor Pirate doesn't run), Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m4f on heavy ground...

Home Free has made the frame in each of his five starts to dates, getting off the mark with a 14-lengths success at Lingfield five weeks agao when last seen, whilst Toss Of A Coin is 2 from 2 under rules having justified his odds on favouritism in both starts since leaving his pointing days behind (he also won his last PTP). All the field have won at least one of their last seven races, though and all have had at least one run since the 10th February.

LTO winner Home Free steps up a class for his handicap debut (it's also Toss of a Coin's handicap bow), but both Bourbali (PU LTO) and Issam (15th of 16) drop down a level from Class 2, whilst top-weight Hardy Du Seuil is down two classes after being pulled up in Grand Annual at this year's Cheltenham Festival almost four weeks ago. Issam will also wear cheekpieces for the first time today.

Monviel is the only former course winner, having landed a Class 4, 1m7½f, maiden hurdle back in January 2022, mind you only Bourbali (7th of 16 and 2nd of 5 in two visits) of his rivals have been here before, but three of them; Hardy du Seuil, Bourbali and Toss of a Coin have won over a similar trip to this one...

Instant Expert tells us that only Home Free isn't running off a higher mark than his last win and that he along with Monviel and Toss of a Coin have already won on heavy ground...

...although if truth be told, we've not actually got a great deal of relevant past races to deal with. The trip looks like it has started to be a bit of an issue for American Sniper and Issam, who are a cumulative 0 from 10, although they have both made the frame in three of their defeats...

Feature of the day is, of course, the pace data and we can look at this in two ways. Firstly we can see how similar past races (if there are any) have unfolded via the Pace Analyser, which today says...

...that in 6-10 runner, heavy ground hurdles here at Wincanton over 2m2f to 2m6f (we widen the parameters to give a more workable dataset), that it really paid to be setting the tempo (pace) of the race. This is of course, very useful knowledge, if you know which horses like to lead and which don't.

Thankfully the second facet to our pace offering is the actual pace tab on the race card itself and clicking that will give you something like this...

...suggesting the main pace here is with Toss of a Coin, Bourbali and Monviel, whilst Home Free made all in his comprehensive win last time out.

Summary

Pace and race suitability are key here and Toss of a Coin, Bourbali, Monviel and Home Free are the ones likely to be setting the tempo of the contest and they were the four that make most sense from the Instant Expert data, so they form the half of the field that I'd want to be with here.

You could make a case for all four and I suspect it'll be a decent contest, but having seen the 5.40pm odds...

...it'd be Home Free at 5/1 for me. He looks to have been very leniently treated for his handicap debut and will no doubt need to fend off a few rivals to win, but the price is attractive, as is the 12/1 about Bourbali. Whilst he has struggled over fences this winter, he was a runner-up in a Class 2 contest over this trip on his last hurdles outing, albeit a year ago. Any semblance of that kind of form gives him a chance of making the frame and he's a better horse than 12/1, so he could be a profitable E/W angle.

Racing Insights, Monday 25/03/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.20 Exeter
  • 3.35 Huntingdon
  • 6.00 Newcastle

...from which I'm going to look at the 3.35 Huntingdon, a Class 5, 5yo+ handicap chase over what will effectively be 2m 4.3f after a 97 yard rail adjustment. The track is right-handed, the going is expected to good to soft and here's the card...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Calvic at least finish third, but Stumps or Slips, Hector Jaguen and Cloudy Wednesday all failed to get round.

Top-weight Icaque de L'isle and Family Business both drop down a class here and Calvic is the only runner not wearing any headgear or equipment.

All bar Stumps or Slips have raced in the last 8 weeks, but a 209-day absence for 'Stumps' could be an issue here. although he, like Family Business, does at least have some winning form at this kind of trip, whilst Master Malcolm and Cloudy Wednesday are both former course and distance winners...

Instant Expert looks like a sea of red...

...but Stumps or Slips and Master Malcolm do manage to emerge with some credit, especially the latter off a mark only 2lbs higher than his last win, whilst the place stats from those races...

...firmly bring the likes of Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic into the mix along with Master Malcolm. Of these four, our pace tab suggests that Master Malcolm and Icaque de l'isle are likely to be up with the pace early doors...

...with Stumps or Slips the back marker. We can then use this info when we check our Pace Analyser, which tells us that...

...those horses that race prominently have the best chance of making the frame, but they can't always catch the leaders, who win more often than any other running style.

Summary

Leaders win most often in this type of contest and Master Malcolm looks like being the front runner. He was also the standout in a fairly mediocre-looking Instant Expert and whilst not in the best form of late, I think he has a good chance of at least a place ands at 7/1, I'd be happy to take him as an E/W option here.

I suspect that Icaque de l'isle, Hector Jaguen and Calvic will also go well, but none are going to be longer to take a punt in my opinion.

Racing Insights, Monday 18/03/24

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Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 3.40 Curragh
  • 4.18 Fontwell
  • 5.30 Newcastle
  • 6.30 Newcastle

Monday's racing is generally pretty poor and the Monday following the Cheltenham Festival is usually even worse and such is the case again this year, I'm afraid. We've a card or rider restricted races on the Tapeta at Newcastle and 13 NH races at Fontwell and Southwell, the highest-rated of which are half a dozen at Class 4. Of those six races, the only one with more than six runners is a 10-runner maiden where the field only have 34 previous races between them.

So, I'll be honest with you here, I probably won't be having a bet on any of Monday's racing, but for the sake of the column, I'm going to look at the 4.30 Southwell, a 6-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on soft ground over what is essentially 2m 5.25f after a rail movement of 188 yards...

My initial thoughts are that the bottom two on the card, Quian & Over Milk Wood would be up against it here, but that you could probably make a case for any of the other four...

POZO EMERY has finished in the first three home in all of his five starts over hurdles, but has only won once (2m3½f) and comes here on the back of a 16 length defeat as a runner-up at Sandown last time out. Up in trip today and tries the tongue tie/cheekpieces combo for the first time.

FLYING FORTUNE makes a handicap debut in his fourth start over hurdles having finished 3411 in four bumpers in the first half of 2023. Her best run over hurdles was his second effort when a 3 length runner-up at Newton Abbot in October, but needs to bounce back from a poor run at Ffos Las last time out. That was over four months ago, so she's a layoff to contend with too.

HOSTILE HOTELIER is up in class here and wears a tongue tie for the first time and comes here off the back of a pair of runner-up finishes, albeit in defeats of 7.5 lengths over hurdles and by 12 lengths over fences last time out. He did win on his handicap hurdle debut last November and now races at just 4lbs higher than that win.

JUBILEE GOLD has only raced five times so far, but has a win and two places from the three races he has completed and was only beaten by half a length at Sedgefield on soft ground last time out. The winner of that race won again next time out and the third placed horse has finished second and first in his two run since. This horse is up in class here, though.

QUIAN won two starts ago at Taunton, but that run was the exception to how he normally fares, having lost his previous six races by an average of 54 lengths per race and reverted back to losing ways last time out, when only fifth of six at Huntingdon. has failed to see 2m out regularly, so 2m5f-plus poses more problems here.

OVER MILK WOOD has yet to make the frame in seven starts and has been beaten by 92, 24, 60, 7, 31, 59 and 74 lengths in those races. In his defence, he does drop in class here for his second handicap run and has at least tackled this trip before, but I'm struggling for other positives if truth be told.

We're not going to get much from the win stats on Instant Expert, so I'm showing you the place data too...

...which would suggest we're better off focusing on Pozo Emery, Flying Fortune and Jubilee Gold in a type of contest where leaders and hold-up horses haven't fared as well as those positioned somewhere between the two, which based on the field's last few runs...

...isn't the best news for Jubilee Gold from my trio of Instant Expert standouts.

Summary

A poor race on an awful day of racing, where I won't be having a bet, but if I was having one in this race, my tentative pick would be Pozo Emery at 7/1 E/W. Jubilee Gold and Flying Fortune should also be in the mix, but it's not a race to spend too much time on.

Racing Insights, Monday 11/03/24

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Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 2.10 Taunton
  • 2.30 Plumpton
  • 3.40 Taunton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

Of those four raced, the highest-rated also has the widest pace spread, so let's have a look at the 3.40 Taunton, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m5f (after a 132 yd rail movement) on soft ground...

No LTO winners in the field, but both Enrilo and Broken Halo were runners-up ans the latter is the only runner in the field with a win in his last seven outings, having won six and seven races ago. Bottom-weight Jacamar is the only one to have completed all of his last seven starts, with Enrilo being the least successful at finishing, failing to do so four times from seven.

The top two in the weights, De Rasher Counter and Enrilo are both dropping down a class here and Laskalin wears cheekpieces for the first time. All seven have been seen in the last 25 to 58 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue (although stamina might) and the field are 0 from 3 at this track, whilst Cyclops' 2017 Boxing Day win in the Lincolnshire National over 3m3.6f at Market Rasen is the closest any of the field have come to winning over today's trip.

Instant Expert looks like this today...

...with the experienced Cyclop having a reasonable return on the going/class. but has struggled to win more often over 3mf to 3m6f, as have the others who've tried to! Cyclop is our only previous soft ground winners, but Broken Halo and Jacamar are both more reliable at Class 3 from a win perspective. The overall poor recent form of the field is highlighted by none of the field being higher than their last winning mark, especially Jacamar and De Rasher Counter who are now rated some 13 and 14 pounds lower than their last wins. The place stats from those races above give us a little bit more to work with, thankfully...

...where again Cyclop's record looks decent, but most of that is historical rather than recent form.

Today's feature is pace and if we consult our pace analyser, we are advised that in 5 to 9-runner, 3m to 3m6f chases on good to soft/soft ground here at Taunton that runners willing to set the pace have the best records from both a win and place perspective

...and because we track/log how all horses race here in the UK, we can make a reasoned assumption as to how they might run here. We allocate a leader 4pts, a prominent runner gets 3pts, it's 2 pts for mid-division runners and 1pt for a hold-up horse and this is how the field have approached their last few outings...

...suggesting that First Lord de Cuet & Enrilo will be the pace options, whilst Broken Halo will need to pass all six rivals later on if he wants to win.

Summary

Despite the conditions and the distance of the race, it's said that pace should win the race here and the two pace options are First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo. The former has yet to win any of 11 starts over fences, but has been a runner-up six times and as his weight drops, he might be ready to win. The latter ran really well to finish second of twelve over 3m7½f in the Edinburgh National recently, even if he was beaten by some 21 lengths. He's down in both trip and class here and could go well again, even if Harry Cobden has chosen to ride stable-mate Broken Halo. That said, 5lb claimer Angus Cheleda has ridden him in three of his last four starts.

Cobden is aboard Broken Halo, who won both the Royal Artillery & Grand Military last year and was runner-up in this year's Grand Military (last time out), so he's clearly no mug but is unproven beyond 3m½f and hasn't a great record on soft ground, so I'm not sold on him completely. De Rasher Counter looks like being third rank from a pace perspective, but carrying top weight after a run of thirteen defeats stretching back to November 2019 leaves me cold. Laskalin is interesting even if the data I've shown above gives him little chance, but he has made the frame in 3 of 9 at this level and has first-time cheekpieces. He's interesting because he's trained by Venetia Williams and when you think of soft-ground staying chasers, she's one of the first trainers you think of.

So, Laskalin probably isn't a winner here, but he'll certainly relish the conditions. We've discussed Cyclop quite a bit above during the Instant Expert analysis, so it's fair to say that he should get these conditions, but might well have to come from way off the pace. Whether he can do that here is debatable, but if not too far detached might well get close to or even make the frame. Last, but not least, we have Jacamar, who might not be too far ahead of Laskalin early doors and doesn't really like soft ground. he did actually win as recently as 1st Feb '23, but has lost ten straight since then, including a pretty heavy defeat last time out.

Late-evening (9.15pm) odds look like this...

...from which I think I prefer First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo to battle it out up top. Of the three priced at what I'd deem E/W money, Cyclop would be the one that I'd be more interested in. 18/1 in a seven-horse race where the bookies are paying three places looks quite generous and you might make a small profit there.

Racing Insights, Monday 04/03/2024

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The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.05 Southwell
  • 2.17 Plumpton
  • 4.30 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

In all honesty, I wouldn't be having a bet in any of those, so for the purpose of the column, I'm going to focus upon the 3.52 Plumpton instead. It's the highest rated race in the UK on Monday and there's seems to be a good spread in terms of pace scores, as you see shortly. The race itself is a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed 2 miles and 74 yards (after a 99yd rail movement) on soft ground...

My initial thoughts here were that it should be a competitive contest between Mr Freedom, Classic Lord, Mr Mackay and Saligo Bay (in racecard order), with the remaining trio fighting not to be last home, but the analysis might tell/persuade me otherwise, so let's look at the details of a field that have all raced inside the last 73 days and have all (bar Classic Lord@ 18 days off) had at least five weeks rest.

Holly is our sole LTO winner, but Mr Freedom was a runner-up, as were Classic Lord and Mr Mackay. Classic Lord is two from his last four and Mr Freedom has only failed to finish in the first three once in his last nine outings (1113233U2) and all runners here have managed at least one win in their last seven efforts, apart from bottom weight and handicap debutant Highway One O Five, who is a six-race maiden who has yet to make the frame in three efforts over hurdles, being beaten by 17.5, 14.5 and 40.5 lengths and it's hard to imagine him winning here.

Holly, Classic Lord, Saligo Bay and Mardoof (who runs in a handicap for just the second time) are all up one class from C4 today, but all four have previously won at this kind of trip, as has top-weight Mr Freedom, who has also previously won here at Plumpton, landing a 2m1½f hurdle back in September 2022. Saligo Bay is the only other course winner, having landed a seller over course and distance two starts ago.

Instant Expert looks a bit bleak today...

...with a distinct lack of positivity, aside from our two course winners, of whom, Saligo Bay looks the pick on those meagre stats, especially with the top two on card both rated more than half a stone heavier than their last wins. I should, however, point out that not all of the defeats above have been bad runs and there have been quite a few placed efforts...

...with Mr Freedom's consistency catching the eye, along with Mardoof (trip), Mr Mackay (class/trip) and Saligo Bay (course and distance).

Today's free feature is, of course, pace and pace is as important over a two mile hurdle as it is over say a mile on the Flat, because race tactics and judgement of tempo are crucial in both. We have two ways into the pace data, firstly via our pace analyser, which for this race looks like this...

...which says that runners setting the pace/tempo of the race have a 26.32% strike rate, whilst those who don't lead only win 11.3% of the time, so leaders are 2.33 times more likely to win and by the same calculations are1 .69 times more likely to make the frame. So the first part of how we use pace is both interesting and useful, but how can we apply it to this race?

How will we know who's going to lead? Well, the truth is that we don't know, but we do know how horses have approached all the previous UK & Ireland races and by looking back at their most recent efforts, we can make an informed opinion (guess?), as to how they'll run again. We award 1 to 4 pts for every run, 1 for a hold-up horse, 2 = ran in mid-division, 3 = raced prominently and 4 = led. So if a horse has a recent average pace score of  1.50 or lower, then he'll look like a hold-up horse, but runners with an average approaching or hitting 4.0 will be expected to be the pacesetters, just like Classic Lord here...

Summary

Today's free feature is pace and we've been told that leaders do far better here than those who don't and our proven pace horse is Saligo Bay, who has made the frame in 2 from 5 on soft ground, 3 from 5 here at Plumpton and 8 from 11 over this type of trip. He's also our only course and distance winner and he'd be the one I'd go with here. Next best for me is probably Mr Freedom, who raced prominently last time out, has made the frame in 8 of his last 9, scoring really well on the place element of Instant Expert and is our other former course winner.

The opening show from Hills suggests we're not getting rich here..

...but hopefully we'll get a good run from the two I've highlighted.

Racing Insights, Monday 26/02/24

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.05 Ayr
  • 4.45 Ayr
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

It's a fairly poor day of racing if truth be told and the Wolverhampton race above is the highest rated on offer, being a Class 3 handicap but it only has four runners, so we'll have a look at the 2.05 Ayr instead. It's still a small field, but we've 6 runners contesting this Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f on heavy ground...

It's a tight-looking affair and I think you could probably make a case for most of the following..

FIA FUINIDH is a front-runner who made all to win here in a two mile hurdle back in January 2023 and has since finished 4224 in four efforts over fences, but was disappointing in a 14-lengtrh defeat here over 2m½f a fortnight ago. That's the longest trip he's faced to date and is up half a mile here!

INDIAN LOUIS won a couple of point to point races, but ran modestly in a bumper and three hurdle races before winning over today's trip on his chase debut on New Year's Day, but his jumping was a little erratic here over course and distance next/last time out just 13 days ago, when beaten by 28 lengths. Has a chance based on his penultimate run but LTO was poor.

TRAVAIL D'ORFEVRE has finished in the first three home in each of his last seven over fences, but this consistency hasn't manifested itself into many wins, as he has landed just one of the seven and that was at Carlisle in October. Since then, his form reads 222 with the middle race of the three a two-length defeat here over course and distance.

JOLLY NELLERIE finished 212 in three hurdle outings in France before coming tot he UK, where it hasn't really happened for him yet. He was beaten by 19 lengths in a two-horse race on his UK debut 11 months ago and then finished 7th of 13 and 4th of 5 in two subsequent efforts before a 26 length defeat when 4th of 6 on chase debut just before Christmas. Like Fia Fuinidh, he hasn't been beyond 2m½f yet and is up half a mile, but it is hoped that first-time blinkers will help.

NIGHTS IN VENICE is a 15-race (3 x NHF, 11 x hrd & 1 x chs) maiden whose best run of form came a year when finishing 322 in consecutive races from mid-February to mid-April last year over trips of 3m½f to 3m1½f. His sole chase run was three weeks ago when a 6-length fourth of twelve at Chepstow again over 3m½f. He might well come on for having had that run, but he's up in class and well down in trip here.

ARDERA CROSS won here over 2m½f, two starts and eight weeks ago beating the re-opposing Fia Fuinidh by two lengths, but the runner-up is 2lbs better this time around. Ardera Cross has run once since that win and was very disappointing, finishing sixth of seven back over over 2m½f here. The 13 yr old veteran was beaten by some thirty-six lengths that day and will need some bounce back!

Yet, Instant Expert says that only Ardera Cross has any kind of liking for the conditions expected, especially the heavy ground...

...whilst Travail D'Orfevre seems to have the worst credentials from the win perspective but his regular top three finishes make for interesting reading...

...with Fia Fuinidh and Ardera Cross also worth a second look on those numbers. I said earlier that Fia Fuinidh likes to set the tempo of the race, but based on this field's last four outings, he might not have it all his own way, as when we click the PACE tab (today's free feature)...

...we see that only Nights In Venice is generally reluctant to get involved early doors, but a slow start here at Ayr will pretty much end his chances of making the frame, never mind winning! That is, of course, if last similar races here are any benchmark...

Summary

I think the consistent Travail D'orfevre (The Goldsmith's Work in French?) is the one to beat here. He rarely runs a bad race, he'll be up with the pace and unlike half the field, has raced at similar trips to this one before now. He's by no means a shoo-in and the 3.15pm Sunday price of 15/8 from Bet365 leaves little room for error/value, so I'll let you decide whether he's a bet or not. As for the others, only the 10/1 outsider and race veteran Ardera Cross is longer than 6/1 and he'd be the only I could even consider as an E/W pick based on prices and if he bounces back from a poor run LTO and goes like he did two starts back, we could be on for a payout.

All of which aside, the sensible (but boring!) play here would be to not play, as any of the six could win/make the frame/finish last!

Racing Insights, Monday 19/02/24

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards gives valuable insight into not only how every race is likely to be run, but also what the best run styles are in the given conditions and using this feature will keep you one step ahead of the masses. It's such an essential facet of betting that we make this information freely available to all readers for all races every Sunday and Monday, including of course, our free races of the day...

  • 2.30 Carlisle
  • 3.47 Lingfield
  • 4.35 Carlisle
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

The highest-rated of those is the 4.35 Carlisle, a 5 (was 6) -runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m3½f (after 77yds rail movement) on heavy ground...

FINGAL'S HILL won a Class 2 handicap here on Bonfire Day over 2m4½f last year for a fourth win on the bounce but hasn't quite hit the same heights in to starts since, but is down in class and weight here

BOOSTER BOB had a win and a place from his two bumper outings in Feb/April last year before a six-month break. He returned to action to October to start his hurdling career and is three from three so far in this sphere, all over 2m including a Listed success at Sandown last time out. Now down two classes for a handicap debut, is probably the one to beat.

RAFFERTY'S RETURN won three of his first seven over hurdles with a run of form reading 1214912 from early Jan '22 to mid-Jan '23, but has made the frame just once in seven runs since and was last home of four at Ayr, beaten by 26 lengths, last time out. He's now do in class and trip and wears both tongue tie and cheekpieces here for the first time, but others look more persuasive on form.

BETTER GETALONG has to be in the twilight of his career now at the age of 13, but this former course and distance winner comes here off the back of a win at Ayr last time out defying a 7-month absence to do so. A 5lb rise makes this tougher, but he's nothing if not game.

GLEN CANNEL makes just a second handicap appearance some 331 days after his first/last one when he was pulled up three out at Newbury having ran poorly if truth be told. He's very lightly raced with just five previous starts under his belt, but was placed in his sole bumper and finished 113 in his first three over hurdles prior to his disappointing handicap debut.

Instant Expert doesn't have a great deal of relevant recent form/data to work with, but enough to put another red mark against the name of Rafferty's Return...

Today's  feature is, of course, the PACE tab and clicking it gives us the following information...

...suggesting that Rafferty's Return will aim to set the pace here and that probably represents his best chance of getting involved here, if previous similar races are anything to go by...

Summary

Pace is the daily feature and can be ignored at your peril, but the pace stats here suggest that Booster Bob might well suffer, but on a reasonable opening handicap mark of 124, I'd expect him to take his hurdling record to 4 from 4 especially as he drops down two classes from winning a Listed event last time out. He is, of course, up in trip, but is 2 from 2 on heavy ground and whilst I think the bookies best price of 4/6 (7pm Sunday) is a little tight, he's the one I expect to win here, although I had him down as even money.

Instant Expert highlighted Fingal's Hill as a contender and both myself and the bookies agree and he has been installed as 5/1 second favourite, which is probably about right, but sadly too short for an E/W bet. If I was to have a couple of pennies on an E/W bet, I think 12/1 rank outsider Better Getalong is interesting. He's an LTO & CD winner and despite being 13 yrs old now, could possibly spring a surprise or two.

Racing Insights, Monday 05/02/24

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.45 Lingfield
  • 2.50 Punchestown
  • 3.02 Carlisle
  • 7.30 Southwell

And with those being a Class 5 A/W handicap, an Irish Maiden hurdle, a 4-runner Mares' chase and a Class 6 A/W handicap, I'm going to stray from the free list again and have a look at the highest-rated UK race that has at least six runners and isn't a maiden or novice event, sending us towards the 3.32 Carlisle, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m1f on soft ground...

A fairly open looking contest with just the one LTO winner in the shape of El Jefe, who has actually won each of his last three starts taking his mark from 84 to today's 105 (up 8lbs from LTO). Elsewhere, only Portstorm, City Derby, Applaus and Palm Beach have failed to any of their last seven outings, going down in 14, 8, 11 and 11 respectively, although Applaus' last win was in this very race a year ago off 2lbs higher than today.

Skycutter, Kingston Bridge and Pretending all drop down a class here, but Serious Ego and Geordies Dream are both up a level with the latter making just a second appearance in handicap company today, as does the lighlty-raced Grand Soufle, whilst Portstorm makes a second yard debut for Ian Duncan (having left the yard in November 2021) after failing to win any of eleven races in Ireland for Colin McBratney. He hasn't raced for 325 days and could very well need the run.

No such layoff issues elsewhere with the rest of the entire field having raced in the last 15 (Pretending) to 87 (Geordies Dream) days. Portstorm, Skycutter, Pretending and Palm Beach have yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but the latter is just one of three to have won at this track before, landing a 2m3½f novice hurdle in March 2022. The other two to have won here are Kingston Bridge (2m3½f maiden hurdle last March) and Applaus who has won three times here over course and distance, the last of which was in this race a year ago.

Instant Expert often helps us see who is and who isn't seen to be suited by the expected conditions...

...and whilst the above doesn't exactly identify any to back immediately, it does raise questions about several of these on soft ground (Applaus & Serious Ego) and at Class 4 (Portstorm, El Jefe, City Derby, Applaus & Palm Beach). With regards to Class, only Pretending has won at Class 3.

Place form from the above races looks like this...

...with Serious Ego looking particularly weak and if he's going to prove that suggestion wrong, he's probably going to pass most if not of all of his rivals on the run-in, if the pace scores from his last few outings are anything to go by...

...he's one of several who have tended to be waited with in recent races, whilst last year's winner Applaus looks to be a confirmed front-runner. he didn't set the pace when winning here last year, he actually raced just off the leaders and this would be a better tactic here than setting the tempo himself...

...with those racing in mid-division also faring very well.

Summary

It's Pretending here for me today. A Class 3 winner two starts ago and a very creditable 4th of 15 last time out, the sole mare in the race is now down in class and weight and has made the frame ion three of four starts at this level. She has won on heavy ground, so soft underfoot conditions shouldn't bother her too much and having raced in mid-division/prominently in her last two starts, might well also have the ideal pace profile.

She's currently (3.55pm Sunday) available at 9/2 with both Bet365 and Hills. El Jefe is the 10/3 favourite as he seeks a fourth win on the bounce and although I think he'll go well/close, the extra weight might just be his undoing today. Elsewhere with the bookies paying four places, Kingston Bridge, Skycutter and Grand Soufle would all be worth a second glance at around the 7/1 to 8/1 mark, especially if they drifted a little.

Racing Insights, Monday 29/01/24

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 1.40 Punchestown
  • 2.20 Plumpton
  • 3.10 Punchestown
  • 4.50 Wolverhampton

Monday racing is generally quite poor and today is no exception; our two 'free' UK races are a 6-runner, Class 5 chase and a Class 6 A/W handicap, so I'm going to have a look at one of the day's joint highest-rated in the UK, the 3.20 Plumpton, which at just over £9200 to the winner is also the day's biggest prize. The race itself could be a good test of stamina being a 7-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 3m1f (plus another two-thirds of a furlong for rail movements) on soft ground that should be a little better in places...

On bare finishing positions, For Gina's 3332121 looks the best on paper and she's the only LTO winner in the field, but she is up 2 classes here. Fellow mare Lassue has also been in good form (21133 so far over hurdles) and she actually drops down from Class 2 here, as do top-weight Diesel d'Allier and Ilovethenightlife, who has won two of her last five.

Hasty Parisien is the only one winless in seven or more, having lost 15 on the bounce in a career that has seen him win just one of twenty starts and he's the most experienced runner in the field, whilst the least exposed, Doughmore Bay has only made three starts and this will be only his second run in a handicap, having finished 7th of 20 over 2m5f at Cheltenham last time out. That was 73 days ago and all his rivals have raced since then, but all have had at least three weeks rest.

Instant Expert looks like this today...

...but doesn't give us too many clues this time, if truth be told, although it does cast more doubt upon Hasty Parisian, whose 1 from 8 in this grade isn't great. Lassue will like the ground and For Gina will get the trip readily enough, but she is up in class here.  The place data doesn't really help Hasty Parisian either...

Pace is today's free feature and we look at the Pace tab, we can look at how the field have approached their last four races and how their average pace rating over those races stacks up against their rivals as follows...

We don't seem to have a genuine front-runner in the pack and the onus might well fall upon For Gina and/or Hasty Parisian to set the tempo of the race with  Monjules the back marker and the likes of Ilovethenightlife and Lassue just further ahead in what technically would then be classed as mid-division and that's probably the best place to be based on the limited pace data we have from similar races here at Hereford...

Summary

I see this as being a three-horse race between (alphabetically) Doughmore Bay, Ilovethenightlife and Lassue with Ilovethenightlife being my marginal choice at 5/1 (as of 7.20pm Sunday). She was in great form last season and looked like she was crying our for a further/tougher task last time out.

As for Lassue and Doughmore Bay, I see little between them and either could well make the frame, but at best prices of 2/1 and 4/1, I'll leave them alone.

 

Racing Insights, Monday 22/01/24

/in /by

Monday’s free feature of the day is full access to the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 1.30 Kempton
  • 1.35 Warwick
  • 3.00 Kempton
  • 3.55 Plumpton

If I'm honest, none of those four races (a 4-runner race, a mares novice hurdle, a Class 5 maiden and a Class 5 hurdle) really grab my attention. Monday racing is generally quite poor, so I'm usually quite selective about what kind of races I get involved with and wouldn't really touch those above.

So, it  should goodbye until tomorrow from me, but the show must and does go on. Therefore, I'm going to look elsewhere and tackle the day's richest and joint highest-rated race, the 2.45 Plumpton, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively a left-handed 3m 2.63f (3m 1f 152yds, plus 207yds rail movement) on good ground that is currently softer in places and with showers expected, it will probably stay that way. Here's the card...

None of these won last time out and only Fidux (a 2.25 length runner-up) made the frame, whilst Only The Bold, Cyclop, Blade Runner and Northern Poet were all pulled up. In fact the first three named of those four pulled up, were also pulled up in their penultimate runs too. That said Blade Runner is 2 from 4, 3 from 7 and 5 from 10 and Northern Poet is 3 from 4 and Blade Runner is down two classes here, as are the joint top-weights Larry and Only the Bold.

Cyclop drops down a class here too, but Fidux now steps up from Class 4, although his 10lb claim jockey retains the ride. Tip Top Mountain and Northern Poet return from breaks of 11 weeks and 3 months respectively, as their rivals have all been out in the last five weeks or so.

Only The Bold, Lord Accord, Fidux and Jacamar are all yet to win here at Plumpton, mind you Jacamar's run here in April is the only time any of the four have been here. As for the trip, Larry, Fidux and Jacamar await their first wins over similar distances, but four of the field (Cyclop, Blade Runner, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain) have all won over course and distance...

Some respectable efforts on good/good to soft ground aside from Larry's 2 from 14 and all of those with three or more Class 3 runs have done well enough. Jacamar is the only one to have failed to win here of those who have raced on this track, whilst the trip looks too much for Fidux. He might only be 0 from 4 at similar distances, but the bigger picture is that he has 0 wins from 16 beyond 2m7f! Blade Runner

Pace is today's free feature and our pace analyser shows us this...

...suggesting that we'd be better off backing a horse who races prominently or leads, especially from a place perspective, but how will we know how they'll run until the race is actually underway? Well, we track how every horse runs in every race and the pace tab shows us their last four running styles, enabling us to make an informed decision (or educated guess!) as to what tactics they might employ and that data looks like this...

...where 4 =-led, 3 = raced prominently, 2 = ran in mid-field and 1 = was held-up. So we can quickly see that Tip Top Mountain likes to lead. Lord Accord, Fidux & Northern Poet look like prominent runners with Only The Bold and Blade Runner running in mid-division with Jacamar, Cyclop and Larry racing further back, somewhat like this...

Summary

Despite being pulled up last time out Blade Runner and Northern Poet have been in great form, as has bottom weight Tip Top Mountain, whilst the horses catching my eye on Instant Expert were Blade Runner, Northern Poet, Tip Top Mountain and Cyclop with Tip Top Mountain, Lord Accord, Fidux & Northern Poet the takeaways from the pace analysis.

Which from the data above points to Blade Runner, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain being the ones of most interest to me. Blade Runner has failed to complete his last two races but has plenty of recent wins in his form line, he loves it here at Plumpton and if he does run here (also declared at Lingfield on Sunday in a much tougher race), he's be my one to beat here at 11/2 with Hills.

I do think the other pair, Northern Poet and Tip Top Mountain will go well, but at 13/2 the former is just a bit short for an E/W bet for me, but I'm quite happy to have a small punt at 14's on Tip Top Mountain from an E/W perspective.

Racing Insights, Monday 15/01/24

/in /by

Monday’s free feature of the day is the pace tab for all races. This is available to all free registered users of Geegeez and gives huge insight into which runners might be most or least disadvantaged by their early positions in each race.

The free races of the day on Monday are...

  • 12.50 Lingfield
  • 12.55 Punchestown
  • 1.50 Lingfield
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton

It's not a great day of racing in the UK, with twenty-eight of the thirty races rated as Class 5 or 6 alongside a pair of Class 4's at Hereford. Of the three free UK racecards, the latter seems to have the greatest spread of pace profiles (more on this shortly), so we're off to the 4.30 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ Classified Stakes over a left-handed 7f on standard tapeta...

None of these managed to win last time out, in fact none of them have won any of their last seven outings. Hawajes, Billy Mcgarry and Vivency have all lost nine in a row, but the other five are on longer losing runs that than, although Big Narstie was a runner-up (beaten by a neck) last week and Rebel Redemption was a runner-up beaten by 0.75 lengths on Boxing Day with Say Grace in third a further half length back.

The field all carry 9-9 here, which means that Big Narstie and Vivency (both rated 50) are best off at the weights, but the lowest-rated horses, Fragrance and Say Grace are only assessed as vbeing 6lbs worse.

All six raced at Class 6 last time out and all bar Fragrance (off 122 days ) and Vivency (199 days) have raced in the last four weeks. Merry Secret and Vivency have both already won over today's trip elsewhere and Rebel Redemption is a two-time victor over 6f on this track, but only the 5yr old mare Say Grace has won over course and distance, when landing a Class 6 seller 48 weeks ago.

As you'd expect, there's not much to see on the win side of Instant Expert...

...but Big Narstie probably shades it, whilst Say Grace looks the pick on the place stats...

In similar races here at Wolverhampton over the last five years, horses drawn in stalls 3 to 6 seem to have fared best from a draw perspective, whilst those racing prominently have fared best from the pace side of the equation.

And this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map for those races...

...which shows the importance of pace. We know that Say Grace, Billy Mcgarry, Big Narstie and Hawajes will occupy stalls 3 to 6, but who will race prominently? Well,that's where the featyre of the day, the Pace tab comes into its own, as we can show you at a glance how any field has approached its last four races and for this race, it looks like this...

...where Rebel Redemption looks like the front-runner with Say Grace and Billy Mcgarry the prominent chasers, although Big Narstie also has two prominent runs from his last three, incluing LTO which was the best run by any of these runners for a very long time!

We can put those runners into draw order as follows...

...which puts Hawajes as the weakest of the four occupying the best draw.

Summary

Big Narstie comes here off the best recent run of the field, he's likely to race prominently again and has a decent draw. He is however, an 11/10 shot at 7.30pm on Sunday evening and for a horse with little experience of Wolverhampton and on a long losing run, too short for my liking. You'd need deep pockets and plenty of resilience to make decent money from such a bet.

Don't get me wrong, he's probably the one to beat, but I'm more keen on taking the 17/2 about Say Grace on an E/W basis, I just feel that's better value for me, whilst the 10/1 offered by Bet365 about Billy Mcgarry might prove to be generous.

Racing Insights, Monday 08/01/24

/in /by

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 1.40 Ayr
  • 2.25 Taunton
  • 3.30 Taunton

If I'm honest, I'm not really taken by either of them, so let's switch our attention to the day's highest-rated race which appears on the same card, the 3.00 Taunton, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m3f on soft ground...

FORM : No LTO winners here but Killaloan, Vicki Vale and Just Loose Change had top-3 finishes. Zoffee and Bread & Butter are winless in nine and thirty-one respectively, although Zoffee's run of defeats are all on the flat/AW and his career hurdles form reads 221P, but he hasn't tackled a hurdle since being pulled up at the last in 2020's Fred Winter! The other horse without a recent win is Ask Brewster who has finished fourth in both starts under Rules, but did win his sole PTP contest over 2m5f at Maisemore Park last March.

CLASS : Galahad Quest, Mr Freedom, Vicki Vale, and Zoffee all drop down a level here, whilst El Rio, Bread And Butter & Ask Brewster all step up a class.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : Most have raced in the last eight weeks, but Zoffee has been off for twelve weeks whilst Galahad Quest and Getalead both return from lengthy breaks of 296 and 311 days respectively and this pair might well need the run.

ANYTHING NEW : This will be handicap debut day for El Rio and Ask Brewster, as Getalead and Zoffee make their first appearances for their new handlers.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Five of these (Killaloan, Mr Freedom, Zoffee, Inca de Lafayette and Ask Bewster) have yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but Killaloan & Inca de Lafayette have at least won on this track before, scoring over 2m1f twice and once respectively. Vicki Vale has won here over 2m½f, whilst Just Loose Change is our sole course and distance winner, having won here four starts ago, back in April and was a runner up over track & trip last time out.

Much of the above is replicated in INSTANT EXPERT...

...which shows just three soft ground winners, although Galahad Quest has also won a soft-ground chase. Getalead has tried and failed to win more often than the others on soft ground and has the second most Class 3 runs after Bashful Boy and the pair ore just 2 from 20 at this level. Killaloan is 2 from 2 over 2m1f here and went pretty well on soft ground at Wincanton last time out. Mr Freedom is relatively unexposed at going/class/track, but certainly gets the trip, winning three of his six efforts. He has also made the frame in two of his three defeats over this distance, as shown below...

None of these are ticking all the boxes just yet, but at this stage I'm only ruling Galahad Quest, Getalead, Bashful Boy, Inca de Lafayette and Ask Brewster out based on the length of layoff and/or their place stats above.

Monday's free feature is access to the PACE tab for all races and if we click the tab for this race, we see the following data...

...where 4 = led, 3 = raced prominently, 2= ran in mid-division and 1 = was held up. We can sort the columns by clicking on them and if I just click the end column (Ave) it gives us an average pace score for that horse's recent runs ie...

...suggesting that the likes of El Rio, Just Loose Change, Vicki Vale and Getalead are the likely front-runners/prominent horses with the likes of Bashful Boy, Killaloan, Mr Freedom and Bread & Butter closer to the back of the pack.

So, why are you telling us this, Chris?

Well, we have a fantastic tool called the Pace Analyser and by setting your required parameters, you can see what running style has or hasn't been successful over a certain type of race and for this particular race, we see...

...that those keen to get on with it fare much better than those racing in mid-division or further back. Leaders/prominent runners have won 66.66% of the above races and have taken 50% of the places from just 37% of the runners, therefore winning 1.8 times more and placing 1.35 times more than par.

Summary

The two horses I like the most are in the middle of the weights/card, Vicki Vale & Zoffee and both have made the frame in two of three soft ground efforts. The latter hasn't tackled a hurdle for ages and is therefore lacking in value at 7/2 or 4/1. Had he had a run over hurdles recently, I'd have been all over him. I might well miss the boat here by not backing him.

Vicki Vale is in good nick, ran well last time out and has won here at Taunton in the past and can be backed at 5/1. I suspect he'll be one of the major players here today, but I think I prefer Just Loose Change for this one. He ticks the box for pace, has a win and a runner-up finish from two course and distance runs and when runner-up here last time out, was seven lengths ahead of Individualiste in third and the latter then won here by sixteen lengths over course and distance a fortnight later!

I see the generally available 6/1 about Just Loose Change as a fair price. Elsewhere, if I wanted a bit of value as an E/W option, I'd be inclined to look at the 14/1 offered about El Rio by Paddy Power, especially as you can get four places on this race. El Rio is better than his last run and if he goes anything like he did two starts ago, when winning by eleven lengths at this going/trip, he could easily make the frame.